Fantasy Football Today - Rankings Disputes! Bijan vs. Jacobs, Tua vs. Lawrence and More! (07/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 10, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Jamey and Heath square off in a rankings fight! First, we tell you who the "Baked Burger" of Fantasy Football will be in 2023 (2:15). That's someone that people aren't excited about, but he'll get the job done. Then we've got news and notes (5:45) on Javonte Williams and the Ravens offense ... Bijan Robinson vs. Josh Jacobs (8:55)! A heavyweight fight in which Jamey favors the rookie and Heath favors the veteran. Then they'll debate J.K. Dobbins (18:00) before we get into the quarterbacks including Trevor Lawrence vs. Tua Tagovailoa (22:55) ... Why is Heath so low on Derek Carr (29:50)? Is Jamey too low on Treylon Burks (34:30)? We also discuss Jordan Addison (39:40) and David Njoku (44:55) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Has the fantasy football season officially or maybe unofficially begun? Some say that is what the beginning of the Scott Fishbowl drafts represents. And they are underway. We are drafting in those today. We won't really tell you too much about that unless you are interested. You can tweet at us. But we're doing a draft.

And that's awesome. And it's really exciting. And it's a new week. And time for some ranking disputes here on Fantasy football today welcome i'm adam azar i got heath cummings and jamie eisenberg here if you want to watch us on youtube you can watch live or on demand at youtube.com slash fantasy football today did everybody have a great weekend great weekend yes yeah good yes yes yes it's good to be home. I was traveling for about eight days. It was good to be home.

Oh, welcome back. Yeah, Jamie hasn't been on the show in a while, so welcome back, Jamie. Thank you. Missed you guys. Did you go anywhere fun? I was at Disney World's parks twice, once on the front end of the trip,

once on the back end of the trip. Don't ask why. But it was great. It's always good to see my kids having fun. The younger two, they're going on end of the trip. Don't ask why. But it was great. It's always good to see my kids having fun. The younger two, they're going on rides for the first time. And we were in Atlanta for two days, one night, which was fun. Went to the aquarium there and the Lego experience, which is, again, a lot of theme parks. And then Clayton, Georgia, where my son goes to camp. And so that was fun to do some outdoor stuff.

Yes, it was cool. Yeah. I don't know if you noticed, Heath, but Jamie's voice is a little bit higher pitch today because he did go on Tron. And that can be one of the side effects. You like that. It's just so uncomfortable for males. Today on the show, we're going to do some ranking disputes. Bijan Robinson versus Josh Jacobs.

They're basically flipped in the rankings for Jamie and Heath. J.K. Dobbins, Trevor Lawrence versus Tua Tungabailoa, Derek Carr, Traylon Burks, Jordan Addison, and David Njoku. We got an injury update on Javante Williams. And first, we have this email. Email of the day at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. This is from Andrew. And he says,

who is this year's player version of the baked burger? Definition, nobody wants them, but they seem to get the job done. The baked burger of fantasy football. I don't get it. What's the baked burger? I baked the burger. I baked burgers for Fourth of July,

and I've been getting... We need to clarify. He didn't just bake burgers. That's something that I think is fine, whatever. He can't have a grill. I get it. He came on the day after the 4th of July and basically said he had one of his greatest cooking days ever. The greatest.

The greatest cooking day of his life, which involved baking hamburgers. Yeah. And hot dogs. Not broiling. Not using the broiler. Just baking them at 400 for 15 minutes. And that was the greatest cooking day of his life. The whole thing came together so beautifully. I mean, everything was

so good, including the burgers. I mean, the corn was good. I didn't bake that. My favorite responses to that were, that's meatloaf. I did see a corn was good. I didn't bake that. My favorite responses to that were, that's meatloaf. I did see a lot of that. But did you enjoy it? Oh, delicious. So, I'm serious.

But everybody's criticizing you about doing it? Yes, of course. So, I guess the biggest thing would be like, who cares? As long as you enjoy it. Well, yeah, more in fun. But, yeah, no, the people who have actually done it have been like, Adam, you're right. If I could find the sound bite, I'll try to find that.

But anyway, who is the baked burger of fantasy football? Nobody wants them, but they seem to get the job done. Adam, you were right. There we go. What did you say, Jamie? Who will it be? Yeah. I feel like this is like a Geno Smith, Jared Goff type of player. Yeah, I think somebody

in the chat said James Connor. I thought that was a pretty good... He falls to like round six or seven now, but he's probably going to be good when he's healthy. Does the baked burger fall apart? No.

Oh, no. Oh, no? Okay, never mind then. Very consistent. I mean, that's the thing. Everyone exactly the same. Very consistent. I suggested Daniel Jones because you think it's better than everyone else does. I do not.

Tyler Lockett? Yeah, that actually was a name that came to mind. Tyler Lockett. I like Lockett and Conner. Those are good baked burgers. They'll be on all my teams. FFT Dynasty recording tomorrow, usually at 11 a.m. on Tuesdays, recording tomorrow at 10 a.m. Eastern.

You can watch it live at youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today, and we're going to be doing a startup dynasty mock draft, a 1QB startup dynasty mock draft. I'm sure there will be a 2QB one coming up as well, right? I think we just did it two weeks ago, actually. You were not a part of it. Oh, okay. Yeah. That didn't really happen. You were invited and you responded 15 minutes before the draft started and said, yeah, I'm in. We'd already filled it. Well, you know, that's actually worked out pretty well for me then so anyway tomorrow 10am eastern

the startup mock draft 1QB startup dynasty mock draft and that episode is going to the audio version is going to drop on Saturday I believe so if you want to hear it before that you can go to youtube.com slash fantasy football today let's do our news and notes

Jamie Javante Williams says he feels good and the plan is for him to be cleared for training camp slash fantasy football today. Let's do our news and notes. Jamie, Javante Williams says he feels good and the plan is for him to be cleared for training camp. For Javante Williams, he's going in the 70s based on the last few weeks of NFC drafting, 90 drafts since June 15th. Javante Williams going in the 70s right now. What's your take on this?

All signs still positive, I guess. Well, he's great. I think the quicker he's back on the field, the quicker you get an idea of what kind of player he's going to be. I'm still not sold on him being the workhorse guy for the Broncos and being the player that I think we were hoping he would be at the start of last season. There's enough data of what these guys coming back from ACLs do

in their first year that it should give you enough warning signs to go all in on Javante Williams. But I think for anybody that's drafted him already or have him in Dynasty or Keeper Leagues, you should be excited. For me, though, I'm still going to probably overlook Javante and hopefully this pushes down some Ajay Piran and I'll still be able to get him at a better price. Heath, where do you think those two guys should go? You said Javante's going in round six? He's going

basically the end of round six. 73rd, so beginning of round seven around there. Okay, I think that's good value. I think he's a round six pick. I'd be fine with him in the middle of round six. I think Piran should go in a very similar range. I think both of these guys are high-end flexes

who will probably have a stretch where they're performing like a high-end number two. P. Ryan is going about 100th, 101st overall. That's a much better value. Okay, well, why though? I mean, at what point would it not be? I mean, round seven for Gervonta and round nine basically for Piran.

I guess, do you think Piran should just go ahead of him? No, I just said I think Gervonta should go round six and Piran should go round seven. Yeah, sorry. Dumb question. I think the thing that you hope for is that Gervonta has the higher that you hope for is that, you know, Javante has the higher ceiling and that he performs that way.

You know, but Samaj Piran, I think, is the one that's going to get enough work that will make it impossible for Javante to perform that way. And that if you're looking for just a piece of this backfield, especially probably in the passing game, that's where Samaj Piran will come in. I think my question was going to be, he was going to be like,

what do you need to see from Javante Williams for Javante to be better value? I don't think I'm going to believe that Javante is going to be more than a 1A this season, unless he is. I mean, I think you have to remember he was in a pretty tight split

with Michael Carter in college. He was in a pretty tight split with Melvin Gordon before he got hurt. I think even if he gets back to 100%, like Jamie said, I think he'll be more efficient and have more upside. But I don't know that he's ever going to be a guy who's over 15 touches a game. Okay. Baltimore offensive guard Kevin Zeitler said the new offense

is going to be fast, and the Ravens are going to attack and attack and attack. That'd be cool. That's great for fantasy. And I don't really think there's much we have to say about that. So let's go to the rankings disputes. So, Bijan Robinson versus Josh Jacobs. If you look at our

rankings, Jamie has Bijan Robinson third and Heath has him seventh or eighth, and it's basically the exact opposite for Josh Jacobs. So, Heath,

you will certainly, as of now, I know you've been open to changing the Bijan ranking, you have him seventh, and you have Jacobs second, whereas Jamie has Jacobs seventh.

I know that you're open to moving bijan up you'll certainly be the low guy on him and probably the high guy on jacobs within the industry so discuss why you prefer not even close right now jacobs over bijan yeah i would dispute that characterization that three versus seven or eight at running back is not even close um like four or five spots in the ranking is not even a massive difference. That's not, that is not even close. Like that is,

if you're doing 10, maybe Jamie will agree with you about that as well, but I don't think four or five spots in the running back rankings is not even close. Let me ask you this. You know, I, sometimes I say if I did 10 drafts,

I would take this guy in five of them and this other guy in five of them. But your rankings would suggest that if you did 10 drafts I would take this guy in five of them and this other guy in five of them but your rankings would suggest that if you did 10 drafts you'd take Josh Jacobs over Bijan Robinson 10 out of 10 times

but I would not if I did 10 drafts and I was playing for money in all of them I'd probably take Jacobs in seven of them and I'd probably take Bijan in one or two

okay or six of them maybe even five that's a lot of exposure do you agree? Not even close? Four spots? No, that's very close.

It's not that close? I don't know what you're saying. When Josh Jacobs is your number two, like I agree that if we're talking about like wide receiver 35 versus wide receiver 31,

that's really close. When Josh Jacobs is your number two running back, not even close to RB7. I think I've justified multiple times why I think Josh Jacobs is number two running back. Okay. Not even close to RBC. I think I've justified multiple times why I think Josh Jacobs is number two running back.

It's because he's one of the only young workhorse backs coming back. And we're hoping Bijan's going to be that guy. I think Bijan has more competition for touches at running back. Josh McDaniel's offenses historically have produced a lot more throws to running backs than Arthur Smith's offense, a lot more throws, period.

And they've averaged 91 targets to Falcons to running backs the last three years, and that includes the throws to Cordero Patterson where he was lined up as a wide receiver half the time. So it's just I have – I think that the concerns I have for Jacobs is if Jimmy's on the pup to start camp, then I get more worried about that offense. Or if Jacobs actually holds out to start camp, then I've got more concerns about that. But if both of those guys are there on camp, I just have more certainty in Jacobs' role. All right. Jamie has Bijan Robinson ahead of Josh Jacobs, and it's not even close.

He's got Jacobs seventh. He's got Jacobs seventh and Bijan third. Yeah, so anyway, go ahead, Jamie. What's your rebuttal? Well, I mean, Heath kind of made it for me with his concerns about Jacobs because I shared the same ones.

I think the quarterback situation, even if Garoppolo is there, is worse because I think it's a step down from Derek Carr. I think what we've seen from Jacobs the last couple of seasons has been, and this is going to be an interesting test case, when there's been guys absent in the offense is when his passing game numbers have spiked. And so, you know, Waller missing time last year, that's the best stretch of games that we saw from Jacobs in the passing game the year before. It was when Waller and Hunter Renfro were both out. And so, you know, we'll see now with Waller being gone, but obviously the addition of Jacoby Myers. But really it's just the whole thing. You know, Jacobs just really makes me concerned about the situation. I think the

Raiders could conceivably be one of the worst teams in the league based on what everything that's happened to them this off season. So I'm just a little down on what the situation can be. Yes, he's a star. You know, he's proven that even when things haven't been right, he's been productive. And then last year when things were fantastic for him, he leads the league in rushing and has a superstar season. So he's got that upside.

He's got the ability to be the NFL's leading rusher again, you know, if this offense doesn't completely tank. But I just look at it for what the upside is for Bijan. Yes, he's probably going to share touches more so than Jacobs. I don't think that's a question. But there's so many opportunities there, and I think we'll see another wrinkle in this offense, you know, from what Arthur Smith told me and how they're going to use Bijan and just how they're going to, you know, deploy him as a receiver, which I think is something that he could definitely do and do it better than Jacobs as a pass catcher

because he showed that in college. So I'm just more excited about Bijan. I'm more confident in the situation there. I think the schedule is more favorable for the Falcons. I think the offensive line is better for the Falcons. And maybe in the quarterback situation is better for the Falcons. If Jimmy's not right and, like you said, he starts on the pup list or maybe they go a different direction,

as they've sort of indicated, is a possibility. So barring Tom Brady coming out of the ownership box and maybe taking over the reins of this offense, I'm just a little bit concerned about the Raiders overall. Okay. Why do you think, Heath, that the public is so much more on Bijan than Jacobs? He is a lot more. I mean,

it's, he's very, really, really exciting. He's a running back who was just taken in the top 10 and Arthur Smith offense. And Arthur Smith used to run an offense at, at Derrick Henry.

And it's, it's, if, if I could do my Chris towers impersonation, Josh Jacobs is Josh Jacobs at Bijan Robinson could be anything. Yeah. Except that I think the problem is Josh Jacobs at B. John Robinson could be anything yeah except that I think the problem is Josh Jacobs has has been a different fantasy player for the first three years of his career than he was last year he had a top ten I mean it's not like sure he had a season where he averaged like

we talked about Tony Pollard and I think a lot of people have Pollard ranked ahead of Jacobs Pollard last year was what Jacobs was basically the three years before this year. But he did that in a shared situation. Right, as the number two back. Right. A little different. I don't really believe – he's always been in a shared situation. I don't believe he's going to be a workhorse running back this year.

I think Tony Pollard will still be in a shared situation. He might be not in the current construct of the roster right now, but if they bring back Zeke, then sure. I think if it's the guys that he's on the roster with now, he's going to dominate touches. I can't see them all of a sudden saying, oh, Deuce Vaughn, just because your dad's a scout, we're going to make you a significant player or a guy that

can get on the field in Ronald Jones. I would hope that the commitment to Tony Pollard suggests he's going to take that next step and get the same opportunities that Josh Jacobs gets, but in a better situation. I think the thing about Jacobs that is, to what you said, Adam, the first part of his career versus last year, well, last year, new coach, as Heath alluded to, Josh McDaniel is obviously very good for what Jacobs wants to do. And then the contract situation, that's still the same.

So despite the fact that he might hold out, which is clearly a huge negative if that's going to be the case, but if he comes back, he plays, he says, okay, I'm going to go out and I'm going to try to earn what you owe me or what some other team should hopefully pay me, then you've got to be excited about that because that was something that probably played into his production last season. And I will say, I'm pretty much, I don't know anything about it.

I'm pretty much dismissing the chances of Josh Jacobs actually not playing football games because of his contract. I just don't think you can look at what's happened. And I understand why running backs don't think it's fair, and I wouldn't necessarily disagree with them. But I don't think you can look at what's happened. Saquon doesn't get what he wants wants and Dalvin doesn't get what he wants and Hunt and Zeke and Fournette

are all just sitting out there rotting. I can't imagine sitting out because you think the situation is going to get better. Well, I might take Bijan Robinson in the Scott Fish Bowl in just a moment. So we will see as I am on deck. And we are going to take a break. And when we come back, J.K. Dobbins.

Big difference in the rankings here for Jamie and Heath on J.K. Dobbins. And we'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations,

or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. It's the season for new styles styles and you love to shop for jackets and boots. So when you do, always make sure you get cash back from Rakuten. And it's not just clothing and shoes. You can get cash back from over 750 stores

on electronics, holiday travel, home decor, and more. It's super easy. And before you buy anything, always go to Rakuten first. Join free at raketing.ca start shopping and get your cash back sent to you by check or paypal get the racketing app or join at racketing.ca r-a-k-u-t-e-n.ca all right jk dobbins is 15th at running back for jamie and 25th for heath and where is he going right now in nfc average draft position since june 15th at running back for Jamie and 25th for Heath. And where is he going right now in NFC average draft position since June 15th?

Right in the middle, basically. RB 19, 58th overall, the end of round five in a 12-team league. So J.K. Dobbins, again, Jamie's got him as RB 15. Heath is RB 25. Jamie a little bit higher than ADP. Heath a little bit lower. Go ahead, Jamie. First word on Dobbins.

I mean, you started the show by saying what Kevin Zeitler thinks this offense is going to be, and I think it's going to benefit J.K. Dobbins in a big way. First off, I don't think you're going to have to worry too much about Gus Edwards taking him off the field, because I think Gus Edwards is still dealing with a little bit of a new situation himself. I think it's going to be a career high in receptions for Dobbins. I like the way this offense

is trending. I think they're going to be back to the level of what they look like. I'm not saying same, but just in terms of how productive they were in Lamar Jackson's MVP season, because I think like Zeitler said, new offense coordinator, more up-tempo, more downfield throws, more opportunities just for everybody across the board to get into the end zone. And we've seen that, you know, even though Lamar Jackson is not the type of quarterback to necessarily rely on throwing to his running backs when things break down, I think we'll see a lot more design passes to Dobbins. So again, I don't think he's going to have a Christian McCaffrey-like explosion as a

receiver, but I do think he can approach 40 plus catches, which for him would be huge. What we saw from him last year was when he came back from the second knee injury, he looked more explosive and looked more like himself. And now he's going to be two years removed from that knee injury when we thought he was going to be one of the best breakout running backs. I think Heath was actually driving that train a couple years ago. So system is going to be great for him. Player, I think, is certainly productive. He's another guy complaining about his contract

because he's about to enter contract season and seems to be a little bit disgruntled. So hopefully that motivation, like we saw maybe from Barkley and from Jacob last year, lends itself to that. So I'll be a little bit disgruntled. So hopefully that motivation, like we saw maybe from Barkley and from Jacob last year, lends itself to that. So I'll be a little bit bullish on him. I do think there's an opportunity for him to have maybe his best season in the NFL,

if he can stay healthy this year. Yeah, I think we're both projecting to have his best season in the NFL. I love J.K. Dobbins, and most of these, like not so much the Jacobs one, but most of these, when I saw them at him,

like the first thing I'm looking for is, okay, why am I so far off or who am I so far off on and is there something that I'm not considering? The problem for me with Dobbins is that he's basically got three four-week stretches in the NFL where he was kind of the guy. Week 8 through 11 is rookie year, week 14 through 17 is rookie year, and week 14 through 17 last year. In those three stretches, the highest percentage of the team's rush attempts he saw was 43%. And it might be that maybe Gus is just going to disappear. The Monken track record in terms of distributing running back touches is pretty mixed.

He's got a couple of years with a feature back. I don't think he's opposed to it. He's got more years where it's two or three guys sharing. But I'm just having a hard time projecting Dobbins for 50, 60% of the team's rush attempts, especially with Lamar there. And he's not ever really been involved in the passing game. But I do agree with Jamie

about the potential talent, or at least what I thought the talent was coming into the NFL. We just haven't been able to see him put together that for very long. So Jamie has Dobbins ranked ahead of Madison, Damian Pierce, Travis Etienne, Miles Sanders, Brees Hall, among others.

I don't know. Those guys are all ahead of him for me. Yeah, I don't really know where else to go with it. I mean, different opinions there. I think it's a workload issue, obviously. Well, it's one where you just have to make a bet one side or the other because we don't really know. Are Lamar's rush attempts going to stay the same or go down?

Are the team's rush attempts going to stay the same or go down? It's a brand-new offense, and we're just going to have to guess a little. Yeah, they haven't given it to their running backs much the last two years. In the previous four years of the Lamar Jackson era, Baltimore running backs have been 7th, 13th, 30th, and 20th in just running back carries. And closer to 30th in running back targets. Bottom four in all four seasons.

Yeah, I don't know how much that's worth. It's just a guess. One thing I do like, though, is that I mentioned this last week. One thing about Lamar Jackson is while he does get some rushing touchdowns, he's not the goal line guy that Josh

Allen and Jalen Hurts have been, or so far in his career, he has not been. Running backs actually do get most of the goal line touchdowns, the goal line rushing touchdowns for the Ravens. All right, let's go to a quarterback dispute here. Two quarterbacks who did most of their damage in a four or five game stretch. Trevor Lawrence is eighth for Jamie and Tua is 12th. And I'm pretty sure it's the exact opposite for Heath, where Tua is eighth and Lawrence is eighth for Jamie and Tua is 12th. And I'm pretty sure it's the exact opposite for Heath,

where Tua is eighth and Lawrence is 12th. Yes. So actually, Lawrence is 11th. Tua is 11th for Jamie. But basically, eighth and 12th, but flops. Tua versus Lawrence. Jamie likes Lawrence better and Heath likes Tua better. Trevor Lawrence scored 43% of his fantasy points in a five-game stretch.

Tua scored 52% of his fantasy points in four games last year, week two and then weeks eight through 10. Heath, you can have the first word here, why you clearly, not even close, prefer Tua to Trevor Lawrence. This is just going to be a Tua love fest. I don't have anything bad to say about Trevor Lawrence.

But I do think that even with the addition of Calvin Ridley, Tua still has better weapons. And I think that within the industry, and especially amongst fans, people need to remember who Tua is. This guy, a 19-year-old, took the starting job away from Jalen Hurts and finished second in the Heisman race.

Last year, he had a five game stretch where he was on pace for 5,300 yards and 41 touchdowns. And that doesn't include a game where he threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns. I think if Tua plays 17 games this year, he's going to be in the Allen-Mahomes-Hertz discussion. Wow. That's bold. I know it is, but I think he's really good. He's got the best wide receiver duo in the league,

and he's going to get to throw it a ton. And so, yeah, there's the risk that he gets hit with a concussion one time and it's all over. But I think we had that concern with Brandon Cooks for two or three years and it didn't happen. Right. Do you, Heath, hold what I said, 52% of his fantasy points came in four games, hold that against Tua? Because I have heard a little bit of,

well, Trevor Lawrence had a good five-game stretch. Back at it, probably. Yeah, I mean, it would bother me more if he had played more games. Right. I mean, four games was 40% of his season, right? Or 33% of his season? Depends if you count the games. Well, he left one game

early with an injury. Tua played 13 games, so that's 12. So if we get rid of that Bengals game where he scored 2.4 fantasy points, Tua scored 52% of his fantasy points in a third of his season. Right. Whereas Lauren...

I'm not going to do the math. You know, Jamie and I were trying to coordinate me muting Jamie's mic so he could clear his throat. And I did mute it for a while and then like totally missed the window there. And then you heard him clear his throat. All right, Jamie, you like Lauren's four spots better than Tua. Yeah, and I don't necessarily disagree

with what Keith is saying about Tua's upside, but there's obviously the downside of what happens with him. And I think it's clearly, you got to build that into how you're evaluating him. The nice thing is, though, is the position where if you do miss, you hopefully have some fallback options,

especially if most people in the league don't take two quarterbacks. That being said, I think the upside for Lawrence is easily to join that same group of quarterbacks that Heath listed as well. And let's not forget who he was, the most hyped prospect coming out of college since Andrew Luck. So one of the most hyped prospects ever. So better than what people thought Tua was going to be. I think the thing that's nice is, yes, the Dolphins have a better wide receiver do. I saw

this today, though, that the Bengals and the Jaguars, the only two teams in the NFL that have three receivers in a tight end that were drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. Take that for what it's worth, you know, in terms of what their prospects were. But that's a pretty good place to be if you're just looking at the group. So it's the addition of Calvin Ridley, you know, to what the receiving corps looked like last year. It's what Doug Peterson was able to bring out of Trevor Lawrence. That stretch of games, you know, is a little bit misleading, I think,

because he probably would have had a couple better games if the rain situation didn't happen in that one outing when he was on fire, I believe it was against Titans. But I love the schedule for the Jaguars. I think, you know, just the matchups are extremely favorable. Situation just lends itself to him,

I think, having the breakout season that we've been waiting for for two years. So I'll take Lawrence safety-wise over Tua, and I think upside as well. I think he's going to have a bigger season than Tua. The only thing I would say is, especially in a two-quarterback or super flex league, I think the floor argument matters more.

I think in a one-quarterback league, Tua and Trevor Lawrence have the same floor. Because I can stream what Trevor Lawrence did last year, and I think what Trevor Lawrence did last year is what his floor is probably. I guess my concern with Tua is that he lit up these terrible defenses and then really came back down to earth after that. There were definitely some circumstances,

but there's a lot of games here of fewer than 18 fantasy points. You know, against... Part of that was the score. One game was the score. What, the Texans game? The Texans game, yeah. Well, he was also getting beat up in that game, too.

Right. Look, he was great against the Texans. He scored 18 points, but he was great in that game. Yeah, but wasn't that the game where Armstead got hurt and then he started getting pummeled?

Yeah, yeah, right. He left that game because he was getting his butt kicked once Thrawn Armstead left and they were really pummeling Houston. But he stunk against San Francisco. He didn't stink against San Francisco.

He had 18 points. He had a 75-yard touchdown on the first play of the game, and then the offense was awful after that. He stunk against the Chargers. He was fine against the Bills. He was terrible against the Packers, but he was playing through concussions, it seems. So there are a lot of excuses. But if you look at the game log,

there are more bad games than good games for Tua. That's my point. I mean, let's not, we can't completely forget about weeks one and week three. They existed. But we would agree that, like, in the NFL, Tua's been better than Trevor Lawrence. No, I would not agree with that.

I mean, you forget, like, Tua has... Tua was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick. I mean, let's not forget that too. Tua's rookie year wasn't good. Well, if we're counting that year, we're not going to hold that against him because Trevor Lawrence was like QB 31 his rookie year. Okay, so what if we just compared their second seasons?

I would say Lawrence's was better. That's probably true. That's comparing Tua two years ago to lawrence last year yes okay because two it was definitely better last year yeah two was was he was he better last year who scored more points per game to a point and a half better with with the bangles game including the bangles game including all the Bengals game? Including all games. Alright, next argument here. Next fight is

Derek Carr. Jamie's got him as QB 20. Heath has him as QB 30. He's QB 19 in ADP. By the way, Trevor Lawrence is QB 7 in ADP and Tua is QB 11, which is basically exactly how Jamie has it. And the same goes with Derek Carr.

It's exactly how Jamie has it. But, Heath, you hate Derek Carr forever. Can't we just play the clip from last year or the year before or the year before that? Why 30? I don't want to talk bad about Derek Carr. He seems like he's a good guy. I just, like, the reason he projects so low, the Saints have averaged 508 pass attempts per game the last three years. They went out and signed Jamal Williams and drafted Kendry Miller.

I think it's a low-volume pass offense. Derek Carr has no rushing upside, and he's not an elite efficiency guy. So I just don't see any path to Derek Carr. I mean, the path is that they completely change their offensive philosophy and throw the ball a bunch, but he's not going to throw a bunch of touchdowns. He's not going to produce a high number of, or high efficiency. I just don't think he's, there's a very good likelihood that he is even a starter in a two quarterback league. Oh, wow. Not a top. You don't think there's a good likelihood that Derek Carr is a top 24 quarterback?

No. He's always a top 24 quarterback. They signed Jamal Williams and drafted Kendrick Miller. They got a starting running back who's possibly facing suspension. Is that really that big of a deal to you? I don't have any reason to change. If they increase 30 pass attempts, they're still throwing it less than most teams. Is that really that big of a deal to you? I don't have any reason to change. If they increase 30 pass attempts,

they're still throwing it less than most teams, and he doesn't run, and he's not good. All right, Jamie, you got Derek Carr, 20th. Yeah, I mean, I think he's an easy starter in a 2QB league, and if you give Michael Thomas a full season, which is hard to do, but if he does play, let's say, the majority of the season, that's a hell of a receiving core with what Olave projects to be and Michael Thomas, what he still could be. Uh, if Alvin Kamara is there for the majority of the season, you know, with Rashid Shaheed and Jawan Johnson as complimentary options and whatever else they

decide to put on the field, Foster Moreau, or, you know, the other running backs out of the backfield, I think it's a pretty good receiving core, but again, it's going Moreau or, you know, the other running backs out of the backfield. I think it's a pretty good receiving core. But again, it's going to depend on, you know, hopefully a healthy Michael Thomas, which is part of, you know, I think how you have to factor this in. But there's no cold weather games for Derek Carr. We don't have to worry about that. There is zero cold weather games at all for the season.

He's at Green Bay in week three. He's at New England in week five. I'm just looking at it now. And then everything else to close the season is one outdoor game. One. After week five. What? Is his last outdoor game.

That's amazing. No, no, I'm sorry. His one outdoor game after week five is at Tampa Bay in week 17. Everything else is indoors. It's a very favorable schedule. I think you're going to see a little bit different offense from what we saw from the Saints last year because they obviously did not trust their passing game.

Andy Dalton was a shell of what he was and he wasn't even good to begin with. And so we'll see if Derek Carr is better than that. But I think Carr is a better quarterback. I think the receiving core is going to be better. I think this team is going to be better. This should be the best team in the conference. In the division. And it might not be close if their defense holds the form.

So Derek Carr is an easy starter in two quarterback league, and he still has, he's going to be one of these, you know, go back to your baked burger situation. He's going to be one of these guys, like, by the middle of the season when you have a quarterback injury or somebody struggling that you're going to be okay starting with because he'll get you to that 20-point threshold, which he did for the majority of last season too. You know, he wasn't as bad, I think, as people think

when you take away his two two-point performances before he was inexplicably benched by the way the Raiders handled that. What a great moment we just had here on FFT. I know that you really enjoyed it. This imaginary chasm that we've created between Derek Carr and Andy Dalton is... There's just no statistical basis for it. He's just like Dalton. He doesn't have red hair, so I get that.

If you don't like people with red hair, I understand that. No, Andy Dalton in his prime was as good as Derek Carr is in his prime. I mean, they're the same guy. But last year's version of Andy Dalton was not good. Last couple of years' versions of Andy Dalton were not good. Yeah, I think the NFL, Heath, obviously thinks Andy Dalton is a backup quarterback. At this stage, and I think that Derek Carr is about two years behind Andy Dalton. Okay, that two-year window is going to help, obviously. Well, we remember what happened to Andy Dalton. Where Andy Dalton was last year, to where Derek Carr is this year, Derek Carr is a

better quarterback. That's going to be, I think, proven out by the way the Saints deploy their offense and by the way that the production comes across for everybody on that team. All right, let's talk about Traylon Burks here. You both are higher than his ADP, which is wide receiver 33. Traylon Burks, Jamie has him 29th, and Heath has him 20th. Jamie, why are you at 29, lower lower than Heath on Traylon Burks? I just can't find a way to get him higher.

You know, for me, there's like a group of wide receivers from like 20 to 30, and he's in that group of just, I don't have a problem if this is my number two receiver. I would love it if they're my number three receiver. But I think the upside for Traylon Burks is off the charts. You know, it's just a matter of how many games is Ryan Tannehill going to start

and how many games is Traylon Burks going to stay charts. You know, it's just a matter of how many games is Ryan Tannehill going to start and how many games is Traylon Burks going to stay healthy. It's one of those situations where there's so many targets available. I think it goes for, you know, Okonkwo as well. Those two guys I think should dominate targets there. And a very underrated player who I think you should keep an eye on is Kyle Phillips and just what he did in camp and to start the season last year as their second-slash-third option in the passing game. But Traylon Burks has just a ton of upside.

I mean, what he started to show at the end of last season, the prospect he was coming into the league, and then the unfortunate minicamp and training camp and just some of the injuries that he dealt with, just that whole team being bad. But I think if Ryan Tannehill starts the majority of the season, Traylon Burks is going to have a chance for a big year, and I'll probably regret having him outside my top 24.

So I appreciate and I hope people that are in the my top 24. So I, I, I appreciate it. And I hope people that are in the trailer burst camp are following his rankings and drafting him probably, probably not far off in where our overall ranking is. Um, they're probably quote very close. Um, so I, I think there's a, there's a lot to love about trailer Brooks, but I just can't get him ahead of a few guys that I like in front of him. I think 20 is a little too high. I think I dropped him down to 24. So it's, I agree though with what Jamie said about,

there are, I think eight wide receivers between 18 and 27 for me. So nine or 10 that are within eight or nine points for the entire season. And my projections, um, Berks is on the wide range of outcomes. End of that. Like, I think he has more upside than a lot of the guys in that range,

and he has more downside. I've mentioned it before, but his final year at Arkansas, kind of a similar situation. A team that ran the ball more than they threw the ball didn't do much at all in terms of passing. He accounted for 35% of the team's receiving yards and 50% of the team's receiving touchdowns. Currently, the number two wide receiver

is going to be Nick Westbrook or Kyle Phillips. I mean, they're going to be run heavy, but A.J. Brown averaged eight targets per game in this offense. I've got Burks at seven and a half. He can be a number two wide receiver if he stays healthy. Two guys, Jamie, that I thought maybe you could make an easy case to put Burks ahead of would be McLaurin and Deontay Johnson just on upside. What do you think?

I don't disagree. Johnson's a little tough for me in PPR just because I think he's going to bounce back and I think he'll find the end zone a couple times at the very least. That's tough, but McLaurin is certainly there. I have Hopkins ranked ahead of him right now. We'll see where he ends up. They could be teammates, which would be

annoying, but would be annoying. But that's one. If he's in New England, I probably would lean toward the upside of Burks just in that offense versus Hopkins with Mac Jones. I would feel more comfortable with that upside. And then even Christian Kirk, you know, just being the number two guy there versus Burks being the number one guy there. So those are a handful of guys in that range that I could see myself moving Burks at him. It's actually a good point that you mentioned Hopkins,

because if you are in the Scott Fishbowl or whatever you're drafting now, you definitely do need to take that into account with Berks because they have been fairly aggressive. It seems there are there more veteran landmines sitting out there in free agency in mid July than there usually are. Oh yes. Yeah. Well, usually are? Oh, yes. Yeah. Well, who are the real – obviously Cook and Hopkins.

Does anyone else really – I think Zeke probably. Oh, Zeke. Yeah. Well, Zeke if he goes back to the Cowboys. Zeke and Fournette probably just stink right now, right? What? Zeke and Fournette.

I mean, like they're not that good. They're kind of Andy Dalton. They're not very good at the things that we like in fantasy football. I would agree with that. But I think if a team brings them in, they're probably going to get some high-value touches in the green zone. All right, let's take a break. Yeah, in the green zone.

Let's take a break. When we come back, two more players to talk about, Jordan Addison and David Njoku after this. Jordan Addison. Heath is again the high guy, and Jamie is right there with ADP. Jamie's got Addison as wide receiver 39, and that's where he's going right now. I moved him up after I saw your email.

I'm moving him to 36. 36 ahead of ADP. He's a round eight pick right now, Jordan Addison. But Heath says, hold my beer. Did I use that right? Yeah, I think you did. 27th wide receiver, 27 on Jordan Addison. Well, first off, I don't have the Vikings yet projected

for more pass attempts than last year, but I think that there is some sneaky upside in this passing game even more than what they did last year, but I think that there is some sneaky upside in this passing game even more than what they did last year because they did have one of the highest situation neutral pass rates. They won 13 games. We all think, everybody thinks the Lions are going to be better than them now, which means the Vikings are probably going to win nine games or eight. There should be a lot more passing opportunities. Last year, they threw 407 passes to wide receivers. That was second only to Tampa Bay. The year before, O'Connell's Rams threw 432 passes to wide receivers,

second only to Buffalo. So Justin Jefferson can earn 180 targets, and Jordan Addison can still earn a number of targets to be a top 24 wide receiver. I think as long as he can handle the physicality, he's going to be a star in this league. Wow. Okay. Jamie, what do you think? Do you have the splits of what that was for Kevin O'Connell's offense after they got Hawkinson in terms of targets to wide receiver?

I don't. I mean, I can get percentage, but we were looking at total number of passes compared to the rest of the league. So we'd have to knock that down to per game. 407 divided by 17. So last year it was 23.9 per game. Would you like the target shares after the Hawkinson trade?

Sure. All right. Jefferson had a 28%. Hawkinson, 22.4%. Osborne and Thielen were a little bit over 14%. So we're definitely going to need more than that. More than 14%. The thing that makes me a little concerned

is that there's 107 targets available. If you just take away Thielen, I think it's 107, right? What Thielen did last year and what they have. And yes, they were, if not leading the league in past temps, right? They were among the league leaders in past temps. They were top five. So they're going to throw the ball out.

That's going to be what Kevin O'Connell wants to do, especially you take away Dalvin Cook. I don't care what you think of Alexander Madison. They're not going to run the ball more. So they may run the ball about the same. So five more carries, ten more carries, whatever it ends up being across the season, 25 more. You know, you get what I'm saying.

It scares me the reports of K.J. Osborne still showing out in camp, that Addison just dominates targets comparatively from the number two guy to number three guy. Justin Jefferson is such an alpha, and T.J. Hawkinson is going to be still a dominant tight end presence there and just presence on that team. And I just don't know if he's going to go from the 107 to 125 plus. That's the concern for me. And so I think if he's still in that 110 range, it's hard for Addison to necessarily break out above that. Now Jefferson gets hurt.

Jefferson doesn't have the same scoring potential, which I don't think anybody expects to have a steep decline. And Hawkinson completely goes away, then I just don't see the target share for Addison being as dominant as I think Heath expects it to be. So I love the talent. I love the potential. He was one of my favorite guys coming into this draft at any position. And I think the landing spot is great. But I just don't know if he's going to have the amount of opportunities without finding the end zone, let's say like Jahan Dotson did last year, to have that immediate impact right away as a rookie. It wouldn't be surprising to me, especially if there's an injury to one of the Chargers guys, if Quentin Johnson is better.

And same thing maybe with Seattle if Jackson Smith and Njigba is better, just based on what those two guys also profile as well coming into the league. But I love Addison. I think he's a great number three receiver. I just don't want to overvalue him because he's replacing Adam Thielen and taking just necessarily more targets away from what the Vikings do.

Okay, so let's say he gets 117 targets. Look at the difference of what these two wide receivers did with that. But Drake London had 117 targets last year. He had 72 72 catches 866 yards and four touchdowns you would think that addison would do better than that right if he got 117 targets

yes what about jaylen waddles 117 targets 75 catches 1356 yards eight touchdowns now i don't think he would do that well i think he would be in the middle of those two. So he'd be Brandon Ayuk. 78 catches, 1,105 yards, 8 touchdowns on 114 targets. Yeah, I would take the under. The under? Ayuk was wide receiver 23 per game. I think if he gets 117 targets, that's about right.

I've got Jefferson at 174, Hawkinson at 136, Addison at 129, and Osborne at 97. Okay. Last rankings fight. It's been mostly civil. Sorry we had to bring Andy Dalton into this. David Njoku, number nine, tied in nine for Jamie, tied in six for Heath. Not even close. Not even close. Not even close.

I do think that, I mean, the principle that I have discovered here is that if you're talking about the difference in your rankings between somebody, a running back or a wide receiver in the top three or four, it's really not even close between that guy and a wide receiver eight. There is a pretty big gap between the surefire first round pick. Okay. So anyway, this is close, though. David Njoku is tight end nine for Jamie and tight end six for Heath.

He is tight end 10 going in round 10 in average draft position. Okay, Jamie, you can go first. Njoku. So let's take a look at some of the guys you have ahead of Njoku. It would be the usual suspects have ahead of Njoku. It would be the usual suspects plus Pat Friermuth. That's really it. It's Kelsey, Andrews, Hawkinson, Pitts,

Waller, Goddard, Kittle, Friermuth, Njoku, whereas Heath has Njoku ahead of Kittle, Friermuth, and Waller. Go. A lot of mouths to feed in this offense. We're going to find out quickly how much Deshaun Watson and his contract went out over what Kevin Stefanski, I think, still wants to do,

which is to run the ball and be a run-heavy offense, I think, based on what we've seen from him. Now, granted, the quarterbacks that he's had have probably dictated that and why he's done that, but he's also had some pretty good running backs as well. So I still think it's going to be tough for him to, you know, be in that range of targets that we like for tight ends, which is first or second on the team. I think Amari Cooper leads the team in targets.

I'm going to guess Elijah Moore is probably second. And then David Njoku hopefully is third because I still love his upside, his potential. Now clearly Stefanski's offense has been favorable for tight ends, which is what you like about Njoku. But, you know, the career has told us that he's disappointed more times than not. And again, I just don't know if he's going to get enough opportunities

to be in the top five range, which if you're ranking him sixth, you've got to have that expectation. So for me, he's a guy that I will settle for as opposed to target, and I hope that he just stays healthy and gets enough opportunities to be productive in this offense. Yeah, I think, I mean, like I said, he finished, what, seven or eight last year, and one of us got him six, and the other one's got him nine. I don't know.

Any of those things seem reasonable to me, but I don't worry about his struggles with Watson at the end of last year because if Watson's bad, then they're all bad. But if Watson bounces back, he had actually a higher target share with Deshaun Watson than he did the first seven weeks of the season when he was so good So I hear the twenty point seven percent. That's elite for a tight end Top Browns have been top five and tight end target percentage. I think every single year under Stefanski. I Think they're gonna throw more and so same share, bigger pie, more production.

So if you look at the last five games of the season, Watson played six and Njoku missed the first of those six games. Last five games, you've got Watson, Cooper, Peoples-Jones, and Njoku all on the field. And the targets were shockingly evenly distributed. Peoples-Jones had 28 targets and Njoku had 28 targets. Peoples Jones, though, had 12 of those targets in the first game of that stretch and then basically was invisible after that.

So they both had 28 targets and Cooper had 30. So that's three guys basically exactly even in targets there. Unfortunately, Njoku just didn't do much with the targets, as Jamie said, and as Heath said, he doesn't really because watson wasn't very good there um but he was on pace for 95 targets in those games and was on pace for only 558 yards but seven touchdowns um he's an interesting player uh because last year was the first year former first round pick but the first year where he really got a chance to shine except that's what i thought but then you look at his second year in the league, I don't know if this matters to you at all,

but he was second on the team in targets. And they actually had a pretty good passing game that year. That was Baker's rookie year. And they threw for well over 4,000 yards, 29 touchdowns as a team. And Njoku had like 88 targets and he stunk. So I don't know, man. Like I want him to be better than he has been he hasn't

been that good he's terrific after the catch but i don't know it just the numbers haven't been there heath there was a five game stretch before he got injured weeks uh three through eight i think he was incredible um absolute stud uh probably one of the you know i'm gonna guess number two or three tight end in that stretch. But I don't know. I guess the problem is I just don't know how good he is, and there's been some mixed messages. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think he's a tight end. He is.

Jamie, you think Moore is going to get more targets than Njoku? I do. I think he's, you know, as a player, I think he's a better player than Njoku is as a player. And so given their respective positions, I also think, look, he's got to stay on the field. I mean, he's always banged up. You know, last year, what, missed three games, four games? You know, it's just it's been a problem for him.

Now, I think their personnel moves, you know, the fact that they didn't really bring in, maybe it's a Harrison Bryant situation, but, you know, that they let Austin Hooper go and they don't necessarily, you know, bring in anybody else last year to replace him is telling. And they didn't really do anything to address the position again this year. So that shows you the confidence they have in him, plus the contract situation that they gave him last season. So there's a lot to like about his upside.

But I think last year, you know, it was so strange because you hear people from Cleveland and they said how much they just, at the end of the season, they just wanted to feature Watson and get away from what they're, I think they're the core beliefs of their offense are, you know, and so we'll see what they do this year because allowing Kareem Hunt to walk, you know, and not necessarily replacing him that may say, okay, we're going to have a little bit more balance and allow Deshaun Watson to sort of dictate how the offense goes more so maybe than, you know, the run game.

But I still think it's going to be a run first offense and the passing game will sort of support that as opposed to be as much as Watson could be a star, the feature part of what they do. And Heath, what's your target breakdown if you have that? Yeah, I've got Cooper at 126, Njoku at 103, Moore at 86. Okay, so that's pretty much a big difference in the analysis there. All right, that's going to do it for today's show. How are you guys doing in the Scott Fish Bowl so far? What do we got? One pick in. What pick did you have? Let's, so it's a bunch of 12-team leagues, over 3,000 people competing,

and it's a third-round reversal, and you do get to pick your draft spot. So it's, and scoring is insane, but there's PPR scoring, tight ends get two points per catch and two points per first down, and everyone else gets one point per catch and one point per first down. Titans get only four points for a touchdown.

I think running backs and wide receivers get five. Makes your head spin. But it is a super flex league. So, Jamie, what pick did you have and who'd you take? I have not made a pick. We were one pick in. Oh, I thought you were one pick in. No, no, no. We made one pick.

Who was it? I'm a Hulk. No, no, no. We made one pick. Who was it? I'm a Holmes. Yeah, and that's the thing. You get a quarter of a point for every carry, so that favors the workhorse running backs and, of course, the quarterbacks who run a lot. Heath, what about you? Where are you in?

I had the 101. I took my Holmes. There have been eight picks made in my league. I will say if anybody is listening, and I tweeted this out just a minute ago, if you really love Scott Fish and you want to do something nice for him, and I think everybody does, the faster we can

get through round one, the better. Because he is kind of stressed and on the clock himself because if somebody doesn't show up in round one, he has to replace them. Once all the picks have been made for round one for every league, then he gets to relax. Okay. Well, that's good.

Help him out. Make some picks. What pick do you have, Jamie? I have the eighth pick. Okay. I am on deck. I have the ele 11th pick i made my first pick oh yeah yeah yeah who did you take well the picks were hertz alan kelsey mahomes lamar jackson burrow mccaffrey herbert fields justin jefferson i took austin eckler. Jamar Chase just went. Jeff Haverlack, dynasty dude, he took Jamar Chase. He's on the clock now. He just picked, so I'm thinking he's going to pick again. I know who I want to take. I don't want to say it. Maybe he's watching. I don't know.

I know who I want. If he takes him... Have you factored in the third round reversal into your decision? No, it doesn't really change anything for me. You're going to take quarterback, right? Yeah. So I don't really care, whatever. It's for fun. I just... I know who I...

Obviously, you got to know who I... I want Trevor Lawrence. I really want Trevor Lawrence here. But if I don't get Trevor Lawrence, I'll probably take Deshaun Watson with the rushing factor. So hopefully Jeff is not listening and doesn't take Trevor Lawrence. Take Richardson. Way to win.

Oh, God, no. No way. All right. Thanks, everybody. We will talk to you tomorrow. Two shows tomorrow. Dynasty at 10 a.m. And best wide receivers in rounds four through six. The league winners. Dynasty at 10 a.m. and Best Wide Receivers in rounds 4 through 6.

The League winners in rounds 4 through 6 at 11 a.m. And that one you'll hear tomorrow. Dynasty you'll hear over the weekend. See you later. Deep in the ocean, an orca pod is on the hunt. But these aren't your average orcas. These guys are organized.

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