Fantasy Football Today - Rankings Risers and Fallers! McCaffrey #1? Michael Thomas Top 12? (08/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 8, 2022

Donate to St. Jude as part of our Draft-A-Thon! Bid on pre-draft calls with our experts, a spot in our Podcast League, a guest spot on our show and more! https://ebay.to/3p4Dc3Z We start the show with... a discussion about the preseason. How much does it matter? What are we looking for that could actually make an impact on our rankings? Then Heath and tell you who is on the rise! Heath has Christian McCaffrey #1 ahead of Jonathan Taylor in PPR (6:15)! We talk about how many games we need from CMC for this to be justified. Dave, meanwhile, is moving Michael Thomas up (12:30)! Is he a Top 12 WR now? ... Big news (15:35) as Kareem Hunt has requested a trade and Matthew Stafford had an encouraging practice. Then we give more rankings risers (22:55) like Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce and Chase Edmonds. We also touch on trendy players Isiah Pacheco and Romeo Doubs (32:35) ... Who is falling in the rankings (39:45)? Dave tells you why he's lower on Jahan Dotson. And then we go through more camp standouts (45:30) like Saquon Barkley, Elijah Mitchell and James Proche. Plus Adam tries to figure out if there is a bigger gap between RB12 and RB18 or WR12 and WR18 (51:00) ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:37 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Christian McCaffrey ahead of Jonathan Taylor. Jalen Hurts ahead of Patrick Mahomes. I don't know if these things are actually happening in the rankings. I am just here to get your attention. We welcome you to Fantasy Football today. It is preseason week one. I'm Adam Azar with Dave Richard and Heath Cummings.
Starting point is 00:02:00 We got running back previews and wide receiver previews coming up this week. Two episodes for each position. But this one we're going to kind of catch you up on some of the news, tell you who's moving up and down in the rankings. Heath and Dave, 0-10 on the Weekend-O-Meter. Dave. This was my last weekend where I don't have to do any work, except I'm doing work right now on the weekend.
Starting point is 00:02:22 But I don't mind. Being on the podcast is fun. I'm giving it an 8.5 yeah i spent about four hours yesterday updating my rankings and projections so i last weekend was the last weekend that i don't have to do any work i guess i don't say that like it's a bad thing one wonderful 10.0 10.0 it's not a bad thing by the way but just neck i already know next weekend I'm going to be traveling and then pouring over preseason games and coming up with notes for everybody. Then when the preseason's over, you know what comes next. Real football.
Starting point is 00:02:54 Real football. Yeah, none of this stuff where we watch scrubs like Josh Jacobs play. Dude, let's honestly have a conversation about it. Since you guys didn't ask me about my weekend, it was great. I had French toast on Saturday and French toast on Sunday. Wow. Always a good thing. Once again, Adam, you just
Starting point is 00:03:11 dominate us in the life statistic. Preseason, of course, I'm going to watch every game while the starters are in. I feel like I kind of have to. It's my job. you just... Dave, can I please just save you some time? Let's talk about realistically what we can really take away
Starting point is 00:03:35 from the preseason. Because last year, because of the preseason, I enthusiastically drafted Marquez Calloway ahead of Brandon Cooks. So let's – That's your problem. No, you were right there with me. Did I have Calloway over Cooks?
Starting point is 00:03:51 No, no. But you supported my move, Dave. And you did not, yeah. My point is – did you hear what the quote Aaron Rodgers had about the preseason? Did you see what he said? Dan Schneier tweeted it. It was really cool. He said, I think he was being asked about Romeo Dubs,
Starting point is 00:04:11 and he said, or Dobbs, actually, it's Dobbs, that you can get a lot more from practice during training camp than you can during the preseason, because in practice, the defenses are disguising things. They're showing you different things. You have to adjust. You have to mentally be sharp. He said that times have changed
Starting point is 00:04:26 since he's been in the league, and in the preseason, everything is so vanilla now. So the only thing you can really take away, this is a little bit of paraphrasing, but the thing that you might be able to take away from the preseason, according to Aaron Rodgers,
Starting point is 00:04:37 is some guys, when the lights come on, they just play better. But he said training camp practices can tell you more than the preseason. And I do think that we need to remember it's hardly ever ones against ones. You're not seeing real defenses and their coverages and their schemes and all that. So we got to – I want to save you some time, Dave. I don't want you to go too crazy this preseason, okay?
Starting point is 00:05:02 So you're saying I should cancel my trip, not watch any preseason games, continue to loaf around every weekend? I'm going to watch them all. Like I said, you're going to go talk to people. You're going to go interview players. You're going to get some insight. But nobody at this point, I think nobody should react too strongly to what they see in the preseason, including Josh Jacobs
Starting point is 00:05:20 playing in the Hall of Fame game, which we'll talk about a little bit why that happened. I'm just saying, let's enjoy your last few weeks. Take it with more than a grain of salt. Look, last year, it was a shaker of salt.
Starting point is 00:05:34 Look, last year was kind of rough. There were a lot of players I definitely loved coming out of the preseason. I was happy to draft them in the middle eight rounds, and they did not come up for fantasy. They weren't great. So maybe you're right. Maybe that's something we should do.
Starting point is 00:05:51 I think you can, you know what I think? Everybody's favorite Cinderella last year was Elijah Mitchell. I believe he had less than 10 carries in all the 49ers preseason games. What are you going to look for, Heath, in the preseason? I'm mostly on your side too. Like what matters more to me is like, and it doesn't, I guess the Josh Jacobs thing does not apply here because it's Josh
Starting point is 00:06:17 McDaniels, which is an extension of Bill Belichick. And I just can't believe anything. But I'd like to see who's playing with who. Right. Sure. That helps as much as anything um i'll get excited about a couple of guys that make some big plays like we're like one more week away from me moving isaiah pacheco in my top 30 or something but yeah i would like to be even more in the direction of the way you were talking. But that's not exactly how it is. I think I joked in the middle of the year last year,
Starting point is 00:06:48 I might have been a better fantasy analyst if I had not watched any preseason. Well, we didn't feel like we missed anything in 2020 when they had no preseason. Dave's dog is on the show. My dog is freaking out because it's storming here and he's all over the place. You know what? Let's continue this conversation some other time. Give me one big rankings adjustment that you made over the weekend. Heath Cummings.
Starting point is 00:07:10 Let's just do it. Is there anything bigger than number one overall? Not really. I moved Christian McGaffrey ahead of Jonathan Taylor at running back. And Dave's got a question for me that I don't have an answer to. So I'm going to justify it the way I can first. And then I want to discuss Dave's question,
Starting point is 00:07:29 but I don't know how to answer it. I just, it started with Chris Towers, so you can blame him. And I was on FFTN5 last week and we'd had some talks. I think I'd expressed a little bit of reservation about Taylor over McCaffrey. But then Chris asks me, how do things go wrong for Jonathan Taylor as the number one overall pick?
Starting point is 00:07:52 And my answer was, well, Christian McCaffrey stays healthy, or Derrick Henry stays healthy, or Dalvin Cook stays healthy, or Alvin Kamara stays healthy. And then it extended to a tweet a couple of days ago when I went looking at the best running back seasons of the past five seasons. And Jonathan Taylor last year, per game, minimum eight games. Jonathan Taylor last year was 12th. It's right in line with what Adam's been talking about for a while.
Starting point is 00:08:24 Seven or eight points better per game obviously we know McCaffrey was but Alvin Kamara's had two seasons on a per game basis better than what Jonathan Taylor did last year can I ask before you it's a great point right I forgot the stat but he scored the fewest points for a number one running back in PPR in seven years or something like that and and that's with an extra game. That's the fewest overall points, but how many running backs? Cause I don't think we think Camara has the same upside that it used to
Starting point is 00:08:51 have. Um, how many running backs have the potential to score, let's say three more fantasy points per game than, than best case scenario, Jonathan Taylor. Oh, three more.
Starting point is 00:09:04 Oh, how many do you want to know? Two more. Do we think last year? What's that? How how many do you want to know two more do we think last year what's that how many more do you want to make it two more points well I just think it's the it's not I I am generally unless it's someone like Will Fuller or Rashad Penny pretty injury agnostic and I think running back is the most injury prone position and so it doesn't make a lot of sense to me to take a guy who I think maybe has the fourth or fifth highest upside number one overall just when I know he's going to get 300 touches at the running back position because I think he's less likely to get hurt than those other guys so who has more upside
Starting point is 00:09:42 than Jonathan Taylor other than mccaffrey um i think derrick henry does i think i think in full pp like if alvin camara gets his workload from last year and his efficiency bounces back then he definitely does okay anyone else i think it's questionable with dalvin cook okay i think it's possible with dalvin i think it's i think it's questionable with aust Eckler, but probably Taylor has more than Eckler, but they're very close. Dave, what's the question you want to ask Heath as he has moved Christian McCaffrey ahead of Jonathan Taylor? This is something that
Starting point is 00:10:14 I've kind of battled with, and I think I've got an answer for my own question, but I want to know what Heath's answer is. I want people who are ready to take Christian McCaffrey number one overall to answer this question too. How many games does he have to play in order to justify going with the 101? So to justify going with the 101.
Starting point is 00:10:39 For example, if he plays 17, no question about it. He's absolutely worth it. Played 16, no question about it. 15, 14, no question about it. Does's absolutely worth it. Play 16, no question about it. 15, 14, no question about it. Does it get sticky when we get to 13? I think it partially, we can't ever know this, but partially it depends on whether he suffers a season-ending injury or misses a month in the middle of the year.
Starting point is 00:10:59 If you told me he played 10 or 11 games, but he was there weeks 15 through 17, then I think he was probably worth it if he's his normal self. Sure. But if he plays 11 games and he misses the fantasy playoffs, then he wasn't worth it. Even though he probably helped you get to the fantasy playoffs? I would say that. But I don't, again, I think I said I don't know how to answer it.
Starting point is 00:11:24 Right, because you don't know when the games he misses are going to be so then let me say you can actually apply this question to any running back and i don't know just i don't know what question kind of year it's going to be at running back if it's a year like last year where nobody scores more than 22 points per game then maybe 10 games of him at 30 points per game is worth it all right so let me let me answer this. I'm telling you Christian McCaffrey is going to play 14 games. I don't know which games it will be. He's going to play 14 games, and I'm not telling you anything about any other player,
Starting point is 00:11:53 but McCaffrey's going to miss three games. But you're guaranteeing 14 games. Guaranteeing you 14 games. And you're not guaranteeing how effective he'll be, how many touches he'll get. No. Nothing like that. No.
Starting point is 00:12:04 I agree with Heath. Okay, 12 games. This is where I get a little nervous. This is the number. It might be. It still could be, yeah. If McCaffrey is McCaffrey and you get 12 games of McCaffrey, it's probably worth it.
Starting point is 00:12:24 You're guaranteed zero games of Jonathanaffrey, it's probably worth it. Because I think 11... You're guaranteed zero games of Jonathan Taylor in this scenario, correct? I'm guaranteeing zero, yeah. Okay. We can't, because you can't... Right, obviously, we don't know that the other guy's going to stay out there.
Starting point is 00:12:36 Okay, last question. Keith, that was your thunder, right? That was your... Jeez. Holy cow. That was thunder? That was thunder. You haven't been hearing it outside of my house?
Starting point is 00:12:44 Ah. Keith lives 10 minutes away from me. ACDC's outside. That was thunder? You haven't been hearing it outside of my house? Heath lives 10 minutes away. ACDC is outside. Yeah, here it is. My goodness. No wonder why my dog's about to crap all over the house. Last question. We've got to move on.
Starting point is 00:12:59 We've got a lot to cover today. Notice I said crap, Adam, and not a curse word. Thank you. Yeah. Last question on this. Is this just in full PPR Heath yes okay because in case anyone's curious Christian McCaffrey in his heyday 2019
Starting point is 00:13:14 22.1 fantasy points per game in non PPR 22.1 last year Jonathan Taylor 19.8 I mean that's incredible 2.3 points per game. Running back scoring's been down the last couple of years. And then the next year, he only played three games.
Starting point is 00:13:28 He averaged 24.5 points per game. It's not PPR. All right, Dave, what's the biggest rankings adjustment you made? Julio Jones, because I ranked him. Okay. Julio. I didn't make any rankings changes. I made one rankings change this weekend.
Starting point is 00:13:44 Do you want it for all of training camp so far or just this weekend? Yeah, yeah, whatever. Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas has moved up for me. There have been a lot of prominent fantasy players that have started training camp on the pup list, and a lot of them have come off. A couple of surprises that actually never made it on.
Starting point is 00:14:01 Michael Thomas was on the pup list for a day. The video highlights out of New Orleans for, like, the first five, six days of camp were fine. He has assimilated into team drills. That's 11-on-11 drills. Those are the most intense training camp drills that you can get. Every single report that I've seen out of New Orleans says that Michael Thomas looks like the Michael Thomas of old. And I still expect there to be a target dip for him
Starting point is 00:14:26 compared to where he was in 2019 and 2018. But I still think he's going to be worth top 15, if not top 12 in full PPR. Top 30 pick in fantasy draft. I moved him up as well, but just inside my top 20 wide receivers. Not quite that high, but I'm tailing Dave. You guys are all having, you, Jamie,
Starting point is 00:14:48 and Heath all have him in the top 18. That's where I saw Heath has him. Dave, I think, has him 13th. Jamie, 15th. And Heath, 18th. This is Michael Thomas we're talking about. I'll give you the exact number. Right now, it's 13. Yeah. Michael Thomas. Oh, you were confirming.
Starting point is 00:15:03 Okay, thank you. Michael Thomas. I'm sure it was 12 or 13. I felt like we. Oh, you were confirming. Okay, thank you. I wasn't sure if it was 12 or 13. I felt like we needed to get it out there. Since August 1st. All right. August 1st. It's August 7th right now. That's 49 drafts on NFC.
Starting point is 00:15:15 He is wide receiver 32. Oh, lordy. Yeah, you guys are way ahead. Well, I had him like 26 or 27, so I guess I was already at – so I moved him up like eight spots. Makes me want to go draft a couple of NFC teams. We have to promote some things. Tuesday night is a live stream, 8 p.m. Eastern.
Starting point is 00:15:37 It is not just any live stream. It is a salary cap live stream. And it's not just a salary cap live stream. It is an all-star mock salary cap live stream. And it's not just a salary cap live stream. It is an all-star mock salary cap live stream. Yeah, we have great guests from around the industry. We've got Drew Davenport from Football Guys, Marcus Grant from the NFL, Joe Dolan from Fantasy Points,
Starting point is 00:15:59 Jacob Gibbs from Sportsline, Adam Azer is hosting it and not participating in it. All your favorite CBS guys will be in there. It's a bunch. Not everybody, but all the non-CBS people will be in the stream at some point.
Starting point is 00:16:18 There's going to be a lot of wisdom being shared, a lot of salary cap strategy being shared. It is a must-watch if you're at an auction slash salary cap draft. shared high it is a must watch if you're at a auction slash salary cap draft yeah it's gonna be awesome mark off a couple hours yeah it's gonna be a normal stream i don't know that we're gonna do the whole thing it's a mega stream uh it's because that's like they could take three to four hours what's that it could take what three to four hours no two and a half to three all right i going to ballpark it at two and a half.
Starting point is 00:16:45 All right. We might be able to pull that off. So we've got some big news for you. Also join our Facebook group. Facebook, just search for Fantasy Football Today on Facebook. Used to be called The Facebook. Now it's just Facebook. Join the Facebook group.
Starting point is 00:16:59 Anyway, the big news. Kareem Hunt requested a trade. One thing that I found very interesting that probably won't matter because they're not going to give him a trade, is when Kareem Hunt or Nick Chubb was out last year, they had a basically single-back system. You know when they're both healthy, they're both getting work,
Starting point is 00:17:18 but when one of them was out last year, which was most of the games, something like 11 games, they didn't work the Ernest Johnson. And I accounted only two games all year where Chubb or Hunt missed a game, but the other one played. And a second running back had more than five carries.
Starting point is 00:17:34 Two games. One of them was week 18 when Nick Chubb left early or barely played. So that was interesting. If Kareem Hunt did not play, then maybe you would just see a bigger workload than ever from Nick Chubb. But guys, I don't really know how to react to this Uh, so that was interesting. If Kareem hunt did not play, then maybe you would just see a bigger workload than, than ever from Nick Chubb.
Starting point is 00:17:47 Uh, but guys, I don't really know how to react to this. Uh, you know, Keith, you and I have been very pro Kareem hunts in, you know, around seven or so.
Starting point is 00:17:55 You still feel good about him or no? Um, it has nothing to do with the trade request because he returned to the team portion of practice today. His whole day and lasted all of like one and a half days. So I don't think there's any chance they're going to trade him. But I did finally update
Starting point is 00:18:11 my projections and just gave up on Deshaun Watson. And so I've got 17 games of Jacoby projected now and I do not like Kareem Hunt or anyone on the Browns as much as I did. Do you still like him in round seven?
Starting point is 00:18:30 It's right about where I have him. So I don't feel like I'm getting a deal anymore. I'm just afraid they're not going to score near as many touchdowns. Mike Evans is day to day with a hamstring injury. He, so that ended up being not a big deal. It seems. And great to see Matthew Stafford out there.
Starting point is 00:18:46 He had a good practice. I believe it was on Friday. Threw the ball well. Seems like good stuff. I don't know if you guys are aware of the way Jamie's Flex League started. Do you know who his first two picks were? So Jamie did something called the Flex Draft, which is industry analysts.
Starting point is 00:19:03 I'm in the best ball. He's the defending champion. Jamie won it last year? I didn't realize that. Yeah, he's had the belt. Well, he can keep it because he drafted eighth, and he has Cooper Cup eighth overall. And guess who his second round pick was?
Starting point is 00:19:16 It's going to be something ridiculous. 17th, 18th overall, whatever, 17th. Derek Henry. Travis Kelsey. Najee Harris. He started out with Cup and Najee Harris I love it it's pretty damn good so yeah cup fell to eight to him and I guess we're just
Starting point is 00:19:33 we're just encouraged by the Stafford news or are we be cool with that yeah probably means we got a rebound Stafford in the rankings a little bit because when the news hit I don't know if Heath pulled him down but I know I did and I know Jamie did because you hear about a quarterback practicing a little but having some sort of abnormal problem with his arm makes you not as
Starting point is 00:19:55 excited. If you do end up waiting on quarterback in your draft, I bet Stafford still slips. I bet this news, and this is one of the other things to keep in mind during the preseason, is that there's going to be a lot of highlights where players do well, like Marquez Galloway, and you're going to see them go higher up draft boards, and maybe you fade those guys. You fade the highlight guys from the preseason,
Starting point is 00:20:19 and you also take advantage of the players that have bad news. And Stafford might be one of those bad news players that you just draft way late, and then he goes off for 28 fantasy points week one against Buffalo. Heath, who won that Twitter poll? Justin Jefferson won the Twitter poll 50-35 or 50-40. Yeah, who's the number one wide receiver now.
Starting point is 00:20:46 So I wonder if he ran it again. I'm not quite as soothed. I wouldn't get the impression this was a short-term problem that's just over now. I think it's still a minor risk or an irritant. Okay. Can I say one other thing on Kareem Hunt? I'll allow it.
Starting point is 00:21:04 There's only one team I can think of where he could go and his fantasy value would drastically improve, and it's Atlanta. I think if the Falcons were to acquire him, I think they'd install him as their starting running back right away. I think there's a... I mean, Kansas City. I thought about Kansas City too,
Starting point is 00:21:27 but I don't know if they'd install him as the lead guy right away. Okay, Kansas City is not taking back Kareem Hunt. He's so much better than everybody they have. He is, but... The Eagles, they hate Miles Sanders. I think it would be a mess. I think the Texans...
Starting point is 00:21:43 I think that would still be a mess. Plus, it's the Texans. Some Damian Pierce buzz, by the way. I think Kareem Hunt's one of the probably eight or ten best running backs in football. So I think on almost any team, he would just push the other guy into a 35% rule. Okay, we're going to take a break here. When we come back, rankings risers and fallers, or just camp risers and fallers,
Starting point is 00:22:03 even if they're not exactly moving up in the rankings. I know a lot of people have questions about Romeo Dobbs, Isaiah Pacheco. We'll see what Dave and Heath are doing about those guys. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Welcome back on a Sunday evening episode here. Hope everybody had an awesome weekend. We thank you so much for tuning in. You're going to get a lot more content in our channel than you're going to get in any other fantasy football channel. I say that with very limited knowledge of what's available in the other channels.
Starting point is 00:22:28 But you are going to get an episode every single day in here. No days off for us. So, you know, I feel good about that. Also, I'm very excited about Tuesday
Starting point is 00:22:42 when we're going to unveil our new Schrager on you, our new producer to help out with this show and make it even better. And it is going to be even better. We're talking about, I already got him making ADP graphics. So it's going to be a better visual experience for you on YouTube. Hopefully it's going to be a better audio experience for you listening to the podcast. Big things coming here on Fantasy Football today. Please help us grow with a five-star review or tell your friends, whatever it is.
Starting point is 00:23:08 So, Dave, any other risers for you? I moved Jalen Hurts up a notch. Okay. That's the move I made today. He's still not as high as where Heath has him or where Jamie has him, but moved him out of Russell Wilson. I figure that the,
Starting point is 00:23:27 the floor for him is still pretty good. And I, I just, all the reports that I've read on Minshew just suggests that there's no way Jalen hurts is going to get benched. If there's anything to fear, it's that they, it's that hurt struggles as a passer in the first half of the year.
Starting point is 00:23:43 And they do what they did last year and just focus on running that would stink because hertz averaged like 16 fantasy points per game when that was happening but maybe he's got more leash this time because they made the commitment to aj brown and maybe he'll be a little bit better as a passer than he was last year because he's got aj brown on top of everything else so i'm uh i'm buying in a little bit more a little bit more he's got A.J. Brown on top of everything else. So I'm buying in a little bit more. A little bit more. He's a top 70 player for me. Still not going to get him in any of our drafts because Heath and Jamie will beat me to the punch.
Starting point is 00:24:11 But a little less to fear about Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts is on Fantasy Pros QB7. He is going 68th overall. So that is the sixth round. That's almost exactly where I have him. 68th overall. So that is the sixth round. That's almost exactly where I have him. And yeah. And on NFC since August 1st, Jalen Hurts
Starting point is 00:24:31 is QB7, but he's going 82nd overall. Okay. So Heath, how about you? Risers? I have so many risers, Adam. Good, good, good. Lots and lots of risers um breeze hall i thought he was a spectacular prospect before the draft the jets took him i was a little worried
Starting point is 00:24:53 about the split with michael carter before they even got to training camp there was talk about how michael carter was going to be robin to his batman Like it was very clear that he was the lead guy. And then the news about hall has just been fantastic. And you've heard very, very little about Michael Carter. I think this is a, like almost all running backs are in committees, but I think Brees hall is getting a bigger share of the work than Javante Williams is.
Starting point is 00:25:18 He might get a bigger share of the work than the Andre Swift does. So I'm not going to hold them back from those guys anymore. I have behind those guys just slightly because other reasons, but he's RB14 now, right in the same tier as those two. What round are you taking him in? Round three, early, early round three. Okay. I'm in late round three on him because I'm still worried
Starting point is 00:25:37 about the committee factor. But I've read and heard that he looks fine. And that's an example of a player where if he breaks off a couple of nice runs in the preseason, everyone's going to go bananas. And he'll end up being a late round two guy. This is Brees Hall we're talking about here. I'd like to just self-promote a little bit, pay some attention to this tweet I sent out.
Starting point is 00:26:04 The New York Jets have running backs named Michael Carter and Brees Hall. The New York Jets have cornerbacks named Michael Carter and Bryce Hall. Isn't that weird? It's a little strange. They have two Michael Carters, they have a Brees Hall, and they have a Bryce Hall. So if I start sending you
Starting point is 00:26:19 tweets that I made that I thought were clever before the show, can you just have them ready to do this? A hundred percent. I absolutely would. Excellent. I'm glad you figured out that thing, how you could show the screen and then have the three of us in the bottom. That's really neat.
Starting point is 00:26:33 Yeah, I know. Are you taking credit for that? I'm just saying I'm glad you figured it out. I don't know where you got the idea from. It was your idea to put us on the bottom, but I didn't know, and you didn't know that it was even possible. I'm the one who figured out that it was possible so i get at least some of that credit uh all right so breese hall who else who else yes uh small bumps up in the um high-end flexes chase edmunds um it sounds really a lot like i don't think he's going to be a lead rusher
Starting point is 00:27:04 necessarily although he might be but it's i think he's't think he's going to be a lead rusher necessarily, although he might be. But I think he's the guy who's going to definitely lead that running back group in touches, and he's going to get the most valuable wins. A.J. Dillon, Damian Pierce, every day it seems like someone's saying how much better he looks than all the other Texans running backs. Yeah. So he's into the top 30 now at running back. Wow. That might be it for running backs. Pierce has moved up for me, but I still
Starting point is 00:27:28 think he's closer to 100th overall. I don't know where you have him overall. I have a hard time conceptually. Who's RB30? Who is in that range? Tony Pollard. That's pretty big. That's Devin Singletary.
Starting point is 00:27:44 For David. Chase Edmary. Well, for David. Chase Edmonds is RB30 for me. Chase Edmonds is RB24 for me. Cordell Patterson might be in that RB30 range. Okay. So he's ahead of... So you're saying Damian Pierce is ahead of Clyde Edwards-Ziller? I have Clyde two spots ahead of Damian Pierce. I've got a lot of guys ahead of Damian Pierce, including Clyde Eberts-Hilaire? I have Clyde two spots ahead of Damian Pierce.
Starting point is 00:28:05 I've got a lot of guys ahead of Damian Pierce, including Clyde. Clyde and Miles Sanders are the two guys right ahead of Pierce. Okay. Yeah, Dave has Clyde 35 and you have him 27. So Damian Pierce... So you have no Chiefs running backs in your top 34 running backs? None. This is a Patrick Mahomes
Starting point is 00:28:21 joint now. You have Damian Pierce ahead of the seahawks running backs yes i do not yeah sorry i was talking to heath you don't dave no all right so let's talk about that then damian pierce heath why or dave why are you not quite as high on damian pierce a lot of it has to do with the team that he's on, and I fully expect Houston to also use multiple running backs over the course of the season. I know their head coach didn't necessarily do that the last time he was a head coach in Tampa
Starting point is 00:28:52 and the time before that when he was in Chicago, but their general manager comes from New England. And I think that they're trying to have a good stable of running backs to rotate around. And if Damian Pierce earns a bigger share, I'm sure they'll give it to him. And I love the reports on him. I think he's absolutely worth drafting,
Starting point is 00:29:09 but I think he's more of a mid-round guy. I don't see myself trying to make him my RB3. And I think even a couple of good showings in the preseason, I don't think that that's going to necessarily change it either. What would change it is if the players that he's competing with for reps get hurt or get cut. Marlon Mack is his top competition. There have been decent reports on Mack. Rex Burkhead is still there. We know how he caught fire at the end of last year. I'm not saying that these guys are going to just completely sideswipe Damian
Starting point is 00:29:42 Pearson and force him into 10 touches a game. I would bet on the upside of Pierce compared to those guys, and I am. They're way ahead of him, or he's way ahead of them in my rankings. But it's a Texans-run game. It's an offense that I think can support one great receiver, which is why I really like Brandon Cooks. But otherwise, I feel like he's somebody that I don't mind speculating with as a bench receiver and not somebody who could be a potential flex for me,
Starting point is 00:30:08 even in non-PPR. I just don't think it's fair to argue against him by saying he's going to have to share touches when I've got him at RB20. It's not like there's workhorse backs in the RB29 range that he's being ranked against. No, but there's downside to him. But there's downside with him too. How many touchdowns are the Texans running
Starting point is 00:30:25 backs going to have? How much, where will the Texans offense be in scoring? The reason why we love Brandon Cook is because we think he's going to just get tons of targets.
Starting point is 00:30:35 Is, is who's going to be on passing downs? Damian Pierce did have a decent amount of catches in college. He's good at it. He also never had
Starting point is 00:30:44 more than 15 carries in a game. He only had one game with more than 13 carries. So he hasn't been a workhorse yet, but he does not really look like your typical third down back. You know, he had 19 catches last year. That's not bad. It's funny. He's got the body of a workhorse running back
Starting point is 00:31:01 and the profile of a third down back. What do you mean by the profile of a third down back. What do you mean by the profile of a third down back? I mean, he's got the profile that would give you hope he could play on third downs in the NFL. He has caught some passes. He's pretty good at it. Yeah, he is. I agree.
Starting point is 00:31:19 In the past, Heath, you've noticed other running backs that split in college, and you've used that as a point against them when they make it to the NFL. I'm generally using it against guys that we're pushing into the top 15 discussion. I was using it to say I'm not sure Josh Jacobs should be a top 12 running back as a rookie. I don't expect him. If Damian Pierce is a workhorse back, then he should be in the top 20. And Josh Jacobs is a good actually counter to what I said.
Starting point is 00:31:48 He's never had more than 15 carries in a game is what I said about Damian Pierce. Only one game with more than 13. Josh Jacobs had one game in his college career with more than 16 carries. He had three games with more than 12 carries. And I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the first week of his
Starting point is 00:32:04 career, he may have had 18 carries in the NFL. So he's been more or less a workhorse. I mean, you'd love the workload, right? So it's just because he didn't do it in college. It doesn't mean you can't do it in the pros,
Starting point is 00:32:15 but Damian Pierce hasn't, hasn't been that. All right. There's only again, like there's only the Seattle guys and I'm not even sure it's true if they're both healthy, but there's only the Seattle guys, and I'm not even sure that's true if they're both healthy, but there's only the Seattle guys that I think are guaranteed when the other one gets hurt more than 15 carries a game.
Starting point is 00:32:31 23 carries in week one of his career for Josh Jacobs. So Damian Pierce is clearly ahead of Tyler Algier because we were drafting them similarly. They were not far apart, especially in non-PPR. I hadce always ahead and i have moved they've separated okay any other risers you guys want to talk about well that was just my running backs let's talk about romeo let's well no let's talk about isaiah pacheco and romeo dobbs i'm really um still only looking for those guys on dynasty waiver wires
Starting point is 00:33:06 or deeper than 15 round drafts at this point. I do have Dobs and Watson equal, but I just don't want to draft either one. I wish his last name was pronounced Dobs. It's more fun. Yeah. That's also what I'm used to. I'm definitely going to call him Dubs a few more times.
Starting point is 00:33:26 He's going to get drafted and redraft. Yeah, probably. He'll be a late-round pick. It's going to be round 12, but Lil' Romeo's definitely going to make the cut. People are going to take him, start the season with him. And we might be one week away from Pacheco getting...
Starting point is 00:33:42 It sounds like the whole Ronald Jones thing just is not happening at all. So what's the impact here for Alan Lazard and Clyde Edwards-Alaire? Nothing for Alan Lazard. So far, it's not really anything that I would be worried about. Okay.
Starting point is 00:33:57 I thought Clyde was going to share with Ronald Jones. I've dropped Ronald Jones way down because I don't think he's necessarily even going to make the team. He might. Yeah, I've dropped Ronald Jones way down because I don't think he's necessarily even going to make the team. He might. Yeah, I've heard that. So give me a couple more risers and then we'll do rankings fallers.
Starting point is 00:34:15 Chris Godwin. I didn't get him quite back to where I had him, but he's where I would have him without any injury concerns, but he's back up to wide receiver 12 for me now. But like I said, if he had no injury concerns at all, he might be in my top five. Boy, that feels so risky, though,
Starting point is 00:34:33 because he's not really doing that much in camp yet. And what's wide receiver 12? We're talking ahead of Michael Pittman. Michael Pittman, Mike Evans, AJ Brown. Yeah. But I'm a little bit more worried about Brown,
Starting point is 00:34:53 which is weird. So I hurt so much, but I think it just, cause I'd like Goddard and maybe Devonta Smith a little more. Um, but like Michael Thomas is 18. I think Dave's got Michael Thomas 13. I can't, I don't know if there's a lot of difference between the two.
Starting point is 00:35:09 I know whichever wide receiver I draft in round three. If I draft one, I'm going to feel nervous about it. Unless, yeah, we did the pick by pick last Monday and I ended up with Depot Samuel in round three with the second pick of round three, and I was thrilled. But if it's A.J. Brown, Chris Godwin, Michael Pittman, I don't think I'm going to take Brandon Cooks in round three. I know you guys probably would. I'm going to feel a little nervous about it, but then I thought about it and I said,
Starting point is 00:35:35 well, what running back would I take there that I wouldn't feel nervous about? I'd feel nervous about Montgomery. I'd feel nervous about Zeke. That's just a nerve-wracking round, round three, because it still feels so early in the draft. You feel like you have to hit a home run. You don feel nervous about Zeke. That's just a nerve-wracking round, round three because it still feels so early in the draft. You feel like you have
Starting point is 00:35:47 to hit a home run. You don't, by the way. But, yeah, I mean, there's just going to be question marks about just about everyone there, which is why I've been sort of gravitating
Starting point is 00:35:56 to T. Higgins because I just feel like I know what... Yeah, I feel like... And Pittman is too, but I feel like Higgins... Pittman could be amazing. I still like Higgins over Pittman. You guys don't, right? You like Pittman? No., and Pittman is too, but I feel like Higgins could be amazing. I still like Higgins over Pittman.
Starting point is 00:36:06 You guys don't, right? You like Pittman? No. I like Pittman. I like those two, and I like DJ Moore a lot too, but what the hell? Just stop with this charade. I truly believe that Sam Darnold has a chance to be the starter.
Starting point is 00:36:19 I don't think it'll happen, but then why wait that long? You're doing your team a huge disservice. I think because they have guys in that locker room who are sam darnold guys uh it's oh i don't know if that's well i mean definitely they have one for sure you true robbie they're number two wide receiver it's like his best friend you trade for baker mayfield pretty close to the start of training camp he needs all the reps he can get this is quarterback we're talking here and they said they're gonna take it until the second preseason game, I think, August 19th, the Patriots game.
Starting point is 00:36:50 That still gives him like three weeks of practice after that. There's plenty of time. I guess. Yeah. I wouldn't be worried about it, but I would assume that it's going to be Baker. You just want a couple more? Yeah, yeah. I can just gloss over.
Starting point is 00:37:02 I got another name too, but go ahead. Good. Let's see if you name them. No, I want to know if you name them. Okay. A little lower down. Juju was up just a little bit and Sky Moore. They're getting most of the positive buzz with the Chiefs and kind of emerging there.
Starting point is 00:37:16 Alan Lazard, I caught up with you on, Adam, and got him to the end of early round eight. Little boost for Kadarius Toney and Brandon Ayuk. That's the onearius, Tony, and Brandon Ayuk. Man, so much Brandon Ayuk steam. Yes. Yeah. Now, I think it feels like nobody says this sentence, but hasn't everything that
Starting point is 00:37:37 Brandon Ayuk has done in camp been without Debo Samuel? Or most of it? No. Most of it. More than half of it. Most of it, yes, but now without Debo Samuel or most of it no most of it still more than half of it most of it yes but now that Debo's back they've both been making plays what I've been noticing because I'm reading up on the Niners every day Lance has not been great it's a combination of offensive line still trying to figure its way I think they've been using a couple of rookies on the line with the ones. And the defense, apparently, has been really impressive.
Starting point is 00:38:11 And I think those two factors have been impacting Lance. Good defense. Playing without, yeah, they're my number two DST. Playing without Debo definitely affected Lance. And drops. A lot of the receivers have been making drops that have hurt Trey Lance. Same thing's been happening to Hertz, by the way. So everybody's kind of in that training camp mode.
Starting point is 00:38:31 Mistakes are going to be made. But the buzz on Lance isn't, oh, my God, he's just throttling the defense every day in practice. He's looking amazing. It's been up and down with Trey Lance. But, I mean, Shanahan was really glowing about IU, talking about how he's clearly worked out the right way during the offseason and worked out with Lance during the offseason.
Starting point is 00:38:54 He's running his routes differently. He's running a little more violently. He's making plays further downfield. He's not running the same routes that he specialized in in college. He's expanding a little bit more. These are some things that I wouldn't mind looking at during the preseason when Ayuk plays, if Ayuk plays. Yeah, he had better receiving stats than Debo Samuel
Starting point is 00:39:19 in the second half of the year. Debo, of course, was doing so much in the run game, but Ayuk was their best receiver. So that's not really statistically. He was their more prolific receiver. I don't think I could say he was their best receiver, but I think everybody knows what I mean. Sure.
Starting point is 00:39:36 Would you take Ayuk or Kadarius Toney? Ayuk. I think I'd take Toney. A little more. I think there's more upside for target volume with Tony. Would you take Lazard or Juju Smith-Schuster? I haven't moved Juju. I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:39:51 I've got Tony ahead of Iuke. I was wrong. Okay. I'll take Lazard. Juju. Because I'm still a little worried about the targets for Juju. All right. Let's talk about rankings fallers here.
Starting point is 00:40:01 Dave, who are some potential fallers, current fallers, past fallers here, Dave, who are some potential followers, current followers, past followers, whatever. The one name that has been falling for me has been John Dotson, who got off to a great start in camp. He had a great week. Yeah. I mean, listen, I love the talent, but Wentz apparently is not having a good camp. The Athletic wrote about how he's been struggling in one-on-one drills against air. So maybe he's working things out and he'll be better. The fact that he's never had a receiver finish higher than 23rd in PPR points per game in his career,
Starting point is 00:40:38 that kind of spooked me. And I don't think it's going to be Dotson who finishes that high, if one finishes that high in Washington. I think it'll be McLaurin. So if I'm drafting Dotson, why am I doing it? Is he a bench receiver for me? Am I ever going to actually use him? Will he be good on a consistent basis or will he have, you know, one smash week followed by four bad weeks?
Starting point is 00:41:02 So I kind of got the, I the cold feet on Dotson. Okay. Put some socks on, bro. Heath, any followers for you? Yeah. Mostly just some running back adjustments. I've caved a little bit on the David Montgomery, Khalil
Starting point is 00:41:20 Herbert thing. So I moved Montgomery down and Herbert up a little bit. I still have Montgomery RB15, so I'll probably still be the highest on him. Jamie drafted him in the Flex League in round four. Khalil Herbert thing. So I moved Montgomery down and Herbert up a little bit. I still have Montgomery RB 15. So I'll probably still be the highest on him. Jamie drafted him in the flex league in round four. Excellent. Good. That's fantastic.
Starting point is 00:41:33 Both the Browns running backs. I dropped a little bit because of the preset projection of the offense. All right. So where's Chubb? 16. So just be just behind Montgomery. Yeah. How about in non or half PPR? Are you taking Chubb over Montgomery? Uh, non for sure. Yes. I mean, this is an interesting topic here. I'm sorry to,
Starting point is 00:41:58 you know, I know you want to get onto some other players, but does it really matter? Why, why did they drop? Because you figure the offense is definitely gonna be worse. It's could be bad, but I mean, I'm looking at this off the top of my head. Cause I remember doing this research three games at Baker Mayfield miss last year and they had case Keenum and they had someone else. And those quarterbacks did not throw for 200 yards in any of those three games.
Starting point is 00:42:21 The most was 199 yards. So, you know, bad passing performances. They ran the ball so much, and they ran the ball pretty well for two of those three games. I remember one of those was the Thursday night game
Starting point is 00:42:33 against the depleted Broncos, but it was Dearness Johnson. I almost feel like Chubb and Hunt are just going to be the focal points of the offense, and they're still going to be really good. Oh, I increased their volume. But I just – and it's less about those three games and more about – it's the same reason that people would argue against David Montgomery.
Starting point is 00:42:59 He's on a terrible offense. It's the same. We make that argument against running backs all the time. And they are going to be in a 55, 45 split. And I think the Browns are going to be one of the bottom 10 offenses in the NFL. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:43:15 but that's okay. If there's, as long as they're not terrible, Christian McCaffrey was the number one running back on the 21st. He was not sharing with cream hunt. Yeah, but I'm not drafting. I'm not drafting the chubb in the first round.
Starting point is 00:43:25 I'm just saying, have things really changed? All right, here's the question. Is their offense, with Jacoby Brissett for 17 games, is their offense going to be worse than it was last year when they had really bad quarterback play for basically the entire year because Baker Mayfield got hurt in week two? Let's just see.
Starting point is 00:43:43 I wonder if I project their offense to be worse than it was last year my initial thought is yes it's going to be worse than it was last year okay but i will uh yeah in the meantime dave uh talk to me about your shirt. It says Sweet 16 on it. I cannot tell what it's for. Oh, it just looked like a different color green. It was because it was New Orleans themed last year, the whole tournament, because the Final Four was in New Orleans.
Starting point is 00:44:15 So a little more purple and dark green and some yellow. Somebody wants to know, Adam Lee wants to know if Cam Akers is falling. Not for me because they already fell. Yeah, you were the low guy. Now I don't know if I'm the only low guy. So I've got them for basically, it looks like 250 fewer yards and two fewer touchdowns than I had last year.
Starting point is 00:44:38 Okay. So now I don't know how many games Chubb and Hunt played together last year or where they actually ranked when they did because it's like five games. It was the first five games and they both were elite. And Hunt was actually better because he had some catches, and he scored a lot of touchdowns. First five games of the season. Well, the first five games they were pretty good, right?
Starting point is 00:44:58 Because Baker Mayfield hadn't got hurt yet? No, Mayfield got hurt in week two. Was it two? Yep. He tore his left shoulder, his non-throwing shoulder in week two. In week one he threw for 315 yards, which is why I like Baker Mayfield got hurt in week two. Was it two? Yep. He tore his left shoulder, his non-throwing shoulder in week two. In week one, he threw for 315 yards, which is why I like Baker Mayfield. In week one, he picked up where he left off the year before. I like him in super flex.
Starting point is 00:45:16 Akers is 22 for Heath, 27 for Dave, 24 for Jamie. Antonio Gibson, Josh Jacobs, Cam Akers, who's your favorite? Gibson. Gibson, but I change that answer every week. Do you want to give me one more faller? Besides
Starting point is 00:45:40 Amari Cooper. No, Amari Cooper might be the only other one. I didn't move as many guys down. Okay. He's outside my wider Super 40. I have a list of some players who, according to what I've been reading, have been having a good camp. I just want to run through them, and I just want real quick reactions here,
Starting point is 00:45:56 guys. Saquon Barkley, he's having a very good camp. 24th overall right now, he's RB14. Saquon Barkley. I've seen the same reports. I'm starting to get the feeling the Giants offense will run quite a bit through him and that he'll get a lot of passes.
Starting point is 00:46:14 You got the same kind of concerns with him that you do with Christian McCaffrey because he's been so injured, missed a lot of time the last two seasons. The freak accident last year might be a little bit easier to dismiss with him compared to the other injuries he's had in the past. He stepped on a foot, twisted his ankle,
Starting point is 00:46:33 and then he was gone for a while. I could see him having a good year. Just tell me ADP, 24th overall for Barkley. Too high, too low, or is the porridge just right? Just right. What about starting your team with Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley? Whoa! Would that be fun or what?
Starting point is 00:46:53 It'll be something. You might be done playing fantasy football week four. I did that two years ago. I had both those guys on an auction draft that I did in the Kings Classic. Speaking of expert leagues, those two were my running backs. I walked out of that draft chest out to here. I was, yeah,
Starting point is 00:47:11 I'm going to crush this league. I did not do well. I did not make the playoffs. Baltimore wide receiver James Prochet. Looks like he's winning the slot job. Does it matter for Andrews or or bateman no okay i don't think it matters enough but going back to the theory that if they have a hard time running the football this year they're they clearly are okay throwing it more than 50 of the time
Starting point is 00:47:39 good for lamar good for all the pass catchers i don't think brochet is worth drafting unless you're in a super deep league or a dynasty league at this point. Having a good camp, San Francisco running back, Elijah Mitchell, RB 22, 49th overall. Every time I read about him having a good camp, I also read about how there's two other running backs in San Francisco having a good camp.
Starting point is 00:48:00 I've read a lot about Trey Sermon, who's kind of changing it up and working more in passing situations, and he's improved there. You know the deal in San Francisco. No, you don't. I don't know the deal. No, I don't know the deal. We don't need to do this again.
Starting point is 00:48:14 Yeah. I mean, I know it's going to be a committee, but what I don't know is, is it going to be the rookie, Tyrion Davis Price, spelling him at the goal line, which is something that was... I don't know if it's going to be that. They call them Davis-Price, spelling him at the goal line, which is something that was... I don't know if it's going to be that. They call them a short yardage. No, I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:48:29 I think when we say, you know the deal in San Francisco, that's implying that we don't know anything. Okay. No, it's implying that there's been a different running back who's led the team in rushes each of the last five seasons. Yeah, I hate this argument. I really do. It's because that has been entirely because of injuries, not because that's their philosophy. Okay, well, here's a guy that had six different injuries
Starting point is 00:48:50 last year in a last year. Yeah, I know. Okay, but he's obviously the top guy. What's the ADP? 49th overall, RB22. That's way earlier than we draft him. Feels a little rich. Indianapolis wide receiver Paris Campbell
Starting point is 00:49:07 having a good camp. Love the talent. He's never been able to stay on the field. Giants tight end Daniel Bellinger. He looks like an Ironman. Giants tight end Daniel Bellinger. Just a dynasty guy? Maybe.
Starting point is 00:49:24 Yeah. If you have a practice squad. Okay. And having a bad camp, I only have one name here, and it's Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. It really should be noted. It seems like he's struggling quite a bit.
Starting point is 00:49:36 And Schneier was actually at practice. Maybe that Giants defense is just so good. Oh, yeah, so good, right? Schneier was at Giants practice over the weekend and tweeted about Daniel Jones just missing. And that's just so sad. Some more news and notes. Why did Josh Jacobs play in the first quarter
Starting point is 00:49:52 of the Hall of Fame game? Josh McDaniels said he played Jacobs because it's good for running backs to take contact, get hit, get tackled in the preseason. Doesn't really happen that much at training camp. So that's why he wanted to get Josh Jacobs out there. Jamar Chase could play more in the slot this year.
Starting point is 00:50:08 He lined up in the slot for just 14% of his snaps last year. That's Jamar Chase. Smart. According to Ian Rappaport, Odell Beckham, not expected to be ready until the second half
Starting point is 00:50:17 of the season. Baltimore center Tyler Linderbaum will miss at least a week with a leg injury. He's their first-round pick. Emershad Bateman has a minor injury. Heath alluded to this earlier. Khalil Herbert had some first teamwork.
Starting point is 00:50:31 So it's just, he's not going to be the lead running back, but he could be a headache a little bit for David Montgomery. You know how people like to draft Alexander Madison when they get Dalvin Cook? Yes. I think it's a good idea if you end up getting Montgomery. Go ahead and write down Khalil Herbert round 10 no matter what on a post-it note.
Starting point is 00:50:51 And Chicago wide receiver Nikhil Harry suffered a serious injury. It's a high ankle sprain. That's his season. That's becoming among the worst injuries that players can have because they come back from it and they struggle coming back from it. And not only were they thin at wide receiver before camp,
Starting point is 00:51:11 you know, they keep getting thinner. That's the bears. All right. I sent you something. We can skip this. If you want. I looked at the last five years to try to determine what,
Starting point is 00:51:21 where was a bigger gap? Was it the gap between RB 12 and RB18 or wide receiver 12 and wide receiver 18? Did you have a chance to look at any of this? I did. You did, Dave? Not at all. I did. I thought it was interesting.
Starting point is 00:51:35 It was a little bit interesting. I was trying to decide, you know, is it more important to have a top 12 running back or the number 12 running back than wide receiver because is there a bigger gap between 12 and 18 at running back or the number 12 running back than wide receiver because is there a bigger gap between 12 and 18 at running back or 12 and 18 at wide receiver? And looking at the last five years
Starting point is 00:51:52 in all three formats, non, half, and full PPR, the answer is probably running back. I wish it were a little bit more clear, but also when the answer was running back, it was a bigger gap than when the answer was wide receiver. I guess basically, Dave,
Starting point is 00:52:07 it doesn't really seem to be a big difference between wide receiver 12 and wide receiver 18, typically. I remember there being a three-point difference between wide receiver 12 and wide receiver 36 one of the previous years. Sometimes Heath will mention his projections and he'll say that a player is a tenth of a point off of another player or 1.4 points off of another player and you might have
Starting point is 00:52:30 heard him say that and say to yourself man how could it be like that that's that's too close but that's kind of how it is then there's just this big big group of wide receivers it feels like every year i've said it before the difference between like a number two receiver and a number three receiver it's almost nothing and that's why the position's so deep that's why i make the choice in plenty of our drafts to wait on taking wide receiver because i think i can find one several rounds later than where the 24th receiver is off the board who can perform close to the level of that type of receiver that goes at 24th so i'm trying to think of a way to make this a better comparison because wide receiver 12 and running
Starting point is 00:53:12 back 12 are not being drafted at the same place the draft cost is not the same at all it's true it's probably about a round difference um i think this is more like to say why we chase running back because it's just not as deep of a position like you're explaining adp i don't know if this is even about adp this is about uh maybe if you're saying why we take running backs early yeah because if you get if you get an elite one it's, it's just such a powerful weapon. And wide receiver tends to be a little flatter in terms of the production. But when we're talking elite,
Starting point is 00:53:56 you'd be looking at the difference between wide receiver one or wide receiver three and wide receiver 18. Yeah. I don't know. Look, if you think this is useless, it might be. I'm not know. Look, I'm, I'm, if you would think this is useless, I'm not saying that at all. No,
Starting point is 00:54:07 it might be. I'm trying to process it and, and make it make sense in my head. And, um, I do agree that the difference between running back 12 and running back 18 is bigger than the difference between wide receiver 12 and wide receiver 18. I just think a lot of times when you're looking at running back 12,
Starting point is 00:54:25 you're looking at wide receiver 5. Yeah, that could be. Or 6 or something like that. Also, I sort of explained it wrong. I'm realizing. No, I mean, the gap is bigger at running back. Just last year, wide receiver 12, this is total points, not on a per-game basis, was three points per game better
Starting point is 00:54:53 than wide receiver 36. Wide receiver 12 was T. Higgins. Wide receiver 36 was Van Jefferson. Yeah, I was doing total points. Points per game, there was a 51-point difference between those two guys. One was wide receiver 12, one was wide total points. No, no, no. Points per game. There was a 51-point difference between those two guys. One was wide receiver 12. One was wide receiver 36.
Starting point is 00:55:10 That's a big difference, though, 51 points. It's three per week. That's a big difference. Very big difference. Three per week. Okay. The difference between wide receiver 12 and 18 was only 11 points last year.
Starting point is 00:55:24 Full season. The difference between running back 12 and 18 was only 11 points last year. Full season. The difference between running back 12 and 18 was 16.2. That was in full PPR. Eh, whatever. All right. Disregard. I got some emails here. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com.
Starting point is 00:55:39 Hoped in Wellington. What a name. Hoped in Wellington says, I love all your work as a collective, but Heath's analytical way of ranking has always appealed to me. Does Heath have any articles or advice on how to start my own projections? I'm busy finding the loophole. I believe the difference between wide receiver seven and wide receiver 18 was
Starting point is 00:56:01 bigger than the difference between running back seven and running back 18 last year. Do I have any suggestions on how I can only tell you about how my process works. There are tools out there. I don't know. Dave, do you remember any of the places? There are places that are providing tools for building your own projections. I used – when I did projections, I used an Excel spreadsheet.
Starting point is 00:56:25 I use Google Sheets. Same. All right. I build it on a team-by-team basis. So I'll build out the entire Chiefs offense, the entire Giants offense, so on and so forth. Ugh, why? What's that? Why would you even do that
Starting point is 00:56:40 for the Giants, you poor soul? Well, you gotta know know like which wide receiver you should be looking at in round 13 and where to take Saquon. Yeah, I'm just joking. But yeah, I was a giant stick. Also, I didn't realize I had that Cam Akers comment up for the last 30 minutes.
Starting point is 00:56:57 Sorry about that, YouTube. Go ahead, Heath. Well, yeah. So I sort of, I build on a team basis and then put in player efficiency kind of around that and then try to meld the two to make sense but
Starting point is 00:57:13 I think you have to kind of start with past performance and then project like if you think someone's going to be better or worse than what they've been in the past as long as you can justify it this is from Harold 12 team standard scoring league if you think someone's going to be better or worse than what they've been in the past, as long as you can justify it. This is from Harold. 12-team standard scoring league.
Starting point is 00:57:31 Let's see. One-year keeper. Straight line draft. What is this? Straight line draft picking. Does that mean non-snake? I'm keeping Christian McCaffrey. The players available in standard scoring should be Adams
Starting point is 00:57:47 Cup Mixon Kelsey Aaron Jones or Nick Chubb who would be your top three from that group in a non PPR league Adams Cup Mixon Kelsey Aaron Jones Chubb Mixon's going to be at the top of the list.
Starting point is 00:58:06 Is it non-PPR? Yeah. Yes. Mixon Cup Jones. I have Chubb one spot ahead of Jones. Non-PPR. Okay. From John, which three
Starting point is 00:58:23 sound better in a full PPR to running back three receiver league, Christian McCaffrey, Zeke and Saquon, Justin Jefferson, Zeke and Saquon, Christian McCaffrey, Zeke and Pittman,
Starting point is 00:58:39 Justin Jefferson, Zeke and Pittman. You know what I'm going to say? I actually have no idea what you're going to say. The three running backs You know what I'm going to say? I actually have no idea what you're going to say. The three running backs? Pete knows exactly what I'm going to say. McCaffrey, Zeke, Saquon? Yes.
Starting point is 00:58:52 I would say McCaffrey, Zeke, Pittman. But it's weird because he has Saquon listed third as if he's taking... I would say the best one would be McCaffrey, Saquon, Pittman. Yes, I would agree. But I would rather have Pittman... No,affrey, Saquon, Pittman. Yes, I would agree. But I would rather have Pittman. No, I might have Saquon higher than... I'm probably not taking three running backs.
Starting point is 00:59:14 McCaffrey. If I could make it McCaffrey, Saquon. Yeah. Pittman. Yeah, McCaffrey, Saquon, Pittman. Yes, I would love that. McCaffrey, Jefferson, Pittman would be even better. McCaffrey, Saquon, andman. Yes, I would love that. McCaffrey, Jefferson, Pittman would be even better. McCaffrey, Saquon, and Jefferson.
Starting point is 00:59:26 Let's do that. Here is... Throw in Taylor while you're at it. Daniel in a tiny town an hour north of Tampa. Tiny town an hour north of Tampa. Let's go with... I don't know. I was going to say Newport, Ritchie, but I don't think that's anywhere near there. Dave, jeez. Amelia Island. There you go. I don't know. I was going to say Newport-Ritchie,
Starting point is 00:59:45 but I don't think that's anywhere near there. Dave, jeez. Amelia Island. There you go. I don't know if that's an hour. It might not be north of Tampa. That's fine. Just stick with it with conviction.
Starting point is 00:59:54 Dear some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, Dan, Jacob, Emery, and a surprise guest. My long-running 12-team standard scoring league redraft is transitioning to full point per first down. It's still non-PPR. Quarterbacks do not get rushing points for first downs. Which players and types of players gain and lose value in a point-per-first-down league?
Starting point is 01:00:19 Players who get lots of yards. Mm-hmm. Yeah, think about what it takes to get a first down. It's easier for a receiver to typically do it than a running back. People have done the math on this, and the easiest way to project it is about 5% of your yardage is a projection for your first downs for the year.
Starting point is 01:00:45 That's interesting. Yeah, Jonathan year. Oh, that's interesting. Yeah, Jonathan Taylor. During the Scott Fish Bowl. Let's see. According to, could this really be right? Yeah, I think it could. Rushing first downs last year. This is from NBC Sports.
Starting point is 01:00:57 Jonathan Taylor had 107 rushing first downs. Oh, wow. Guess who number two was? He played in the NFC East. Jalen Hurts. I don't know if there are quarterbacks. No, Jalen Hurts was seventh. Running back.
Starting point is 01:01:14 Second in rushing first downs. NFC East. Ezekiel Elliott. Antonio Gibson. So Jonathan Taylor had 107. Antonio Gibson had 65. Uh-huh. Wow.
Starting point is 01:01:27 Okay, so take what I said and do the opposite. A wide receiving first downs. Is that on here? Again, this is... Najee Harris had 62. Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook. You know, you want yards and touches. I do think points for first down is really cool
Starting point is 01:01:46 and maybe better than PPR, and it could be the wave of the future. I like half point for first down, half PPR. Yeah, I like that too. What a headache. From Shannon. It's like three extra buttons you have to click at the beginning of the year,
Starting point is 01:02:01 and it doesn't change anything ever again. Yeah, but thinking about it on draft day. Keeper League. That's from keeper league the villages by the way keep uh keeper league is cup chase jonathan taylor and chubb let's see how many he can keep here um i'm 100 keeping jamar chase and jonathan taylor so then it's cup and chubb. It's Cup. Oh, yeah. Okay. Who are you keeping? Cup over Chubb.
Starting point is 01:02:27 Cup over Chubb. Okay. He's worried about the Stafford injury plaguing Cooper Cup. If you knew that it was John Walford for 17 games, you might consider Chubb over Cup. But I don't think it's going to be that way. I think he'll get Stafford for a good portion of the year. At least I hope so.
Starting point is 01:02:45 Please hit like before you leave the show, the stream. And thank you so much, everybody. We'll talk to you on Tuesday. We won't have a show on Monday. This is your Monday episode. Tuesday, we'll come back at you with RB Preview Part 1, Wednesday Part 2, and then Thursday and Friday, Wide Receivers. We'll have bonus pods if there's any big breaking news.
Starting point is 01:03:04 For Dave and Heath, I'm Adam. Have a great Sunday and Monday. Talk to you Tuesday on Fantasy Football Today.

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