Fantasy Football Today - Rankings Risers/Fallers, Top 12 Dynasty Running Backs, Waiver Wire Pickups, & More! (11/14 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

Episode Date: November 15, 2023

Looking to dominate your fantasy league just like your redraft league? Look no further than Fantasy Football Today Dynasty hosted by our very own Heath Cummings! Download and follow Fantasy Football Today Dynasty on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you find your podcasts.  Chris Towers and Heath Cummings discuss concern levels for Josh Allen (0:40) and Trevor Lawrence (7:00), and review Cardinals' (12:45) target share numbers. Then they get into the big news: De’Von Achane (25:25) will return from IR soon, and the Bills fire (27:00) offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Next, they review the (28:30) waiver wire, including Desmond Ridder, Ty Chandler, Rico Dowdle, Rondale Moore, Trenton Irwin, and others. Finally, we review the latest rankings movers (37:39) and rank the top-12 running backs in dynasty league. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit Amex. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash businessplatinum. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings, here with my good friend, Chris Towers. And we have a lot to talk about heading into week 11. We're getting close to playoff time. We've got waiver wire ads, dynasty risers and fallers.

We're going to re-rank the top 12 running backs in dynasty at the end of today's show. But, you know, every once in a while we're talking before the show gets started and Chris says something that grabs my interest. And so I'm just going to pass the mic to Chris. He is fed up with the Josh Allen discourse this morning after Josh Allen gets outplayed by Russell Wilson. Chris, what's wrong with Josh Allen? I just like the idea that like Josh Allen is secretly bad now. Or that like we have to have a conversation about Josh.

Like he's turning the ball over a lot right now, more than any quarterback in the league. 3.6% of his plays have been turnover so far this season. And if that was 2.9%, he's probably the MVP in most people's eyes. And I just think it's really dumb the way we talk about, like people can't process the fact that like a good player can turn the ball over for a stretch of 10 games and still be good. We did this with Dak Prescott last year where like he's irreparably damaged by the fact that he was turning the ball over 1.2 times per game. And it's like now Dak Prescott has the second fewest turnovers of any quarterback in the NFL because turnovers are incredibly rare events that are very important.

I don't want to be seen minimizing the value of turnovers. They are bad. It is bad to turn the ball over. They're just, they don't tell you that much about how good a quarterback is, especially in a 10 game stretch. And like our, our collective inability to process the fact that a good player

can sometimes turn the ball over 30 percent more often than we would expect for a stretch of 10 games it just it really bothers me and like this like hot take culture that we have to like if josh allen isn't playing well for 10 games we have to do a like josh allen's actually worse than justin herbert who like has his own issues in close games and it just i don't know i don't know if you were expecting like a firebrand you know brimstone kind of thing it's just i just think people are being dumb like i had someone yesterday i had someone on twitter yesterday tell me that the Bills are a loaded team. I don't know how you can watch football in 2023, in week 10 of the 2023 season, when the three best players on the Bills' defense are hurt,

and Gabe Davis is still running one route and not catching the ball, directly leading to an interception last night, by the way, and say that this Bills team is so loaded that if Josh Allen doesn't play perfect, it just, I don't know. I feel like we are reaching a point, though. The perception of the Bills as a team that just does not match with reality.

No, I think that they were kind of built up and he was built up into something. And now we've got to age 27 and the rush attempts have almost been chopped in half this year. The rush yards have basically been chopped in half this year. He's moving into that stage of his career where he's going to have to be a pocket passer and he's five and five and his team's lost three of their last four and like legitimately might not make the playoffs this year. And so there's, there's something to be said about that. Right. But like, okay, so we're going to use like, Oh, his team might not make the playoffs.

That means he's worse than Justin Herbert. That just seems dumb. No. And I don't know about like the, the Justin Herbert thing I haven't seen. I do think if you were just going to have a guy stand in the pocket and throw 35 passes per game, I'd probably rather have Justin Herbert do that. But that's not just what Josh Allen's doing. No, but I'd rather have Justin Herbert do that. He's still moving. He's still producing with his legs. He scored a touchdown with his legs yesterday.

So – Yeah, if you take away the thing that makes Josh Allen special. They have taken it away halfway this year, though. Right, but he's still doing it five times per game. It's not like we're just ignoring it completely. He's still maybe the best scrambler in the NFL. He's still an incredible red zone weapon as a rusher, as we saw last night. That's just not a good offense like they've got one

all-world receiver they've got a rookie tight end they've got a rookie or a second year running back who they benched for his first fumble literally since his first nfl play and we're supposed to be like this is a great situation how can he not be like it just you people don't know ball that's what it comes down to so josh allen is a top what quarterback in the nfl five like how many you replace him with two a tongue of a low you think the bills are a better team i'm sorry that's ridiculous i i didn't think we were going to have a josh allen discussion this morning but it is interesting because and we've got a different poll coming up later, and we're not going to show that one quite yet. But I did see that Robert Thomas, who runs our Facebook group, had posted a tweet poll earlier today. Who would you rather have in Dynasty, Josh Allen or C.J. Stroud? And it was like 60-40.

It's Josh Allen. I'm sorry. and it was like josh allen 60 40 it's josh allen it was like 60 40 um i i do think like and we're going to get off of josh allen next now but i the last word that i want to say is that he does have in my opinion more risk than the average 27 year old who has had three top three seasons recently because the rushing was so much of that. And we should expect the rushing to be less moving forward, but he's still the number two quarterback in fantasy. I'd be more concerned if he wasn't the number two quarterback in fantasy and

like three points clear of number three. Now the, the, the question I did want to ask, cause we've got three questions we need to answer this morning, and it's another narrative flip that we've seen, and it's Trevor Lawrence. And I was pretty Trevor Lawrence skeptical coming into this year, and he's not done anything to change that at all. There are underlying stats that will tell you that Trevor Lawrence is better than he has been this year. But we're two and a half years into his career, and it's mostly been two and a half years of making excuses for

Trevor Lawrence. I wonder if the narrative has begun to flip a little bit too far in the last week or so. It does seem like people are really, really down on Trevor Lawrence now. It's not a debate between him and C.J. Stroud and Dynasty. Everybody wants C.J. Stroud. He is my QB 18 this week. He is my QB 15 rest of season. He is my QB 10 in Dynasty. Has the narrative flipped too far on Trevor Lawrence? Are you still convinced he's going to matter in fantasy football?

Smarter people than me strongly believe that Trevor Lawrence is one of the six to eight best quarterbacks in the NFL. Like people who really spend their time chewing on tape. And like, think there is a a real sense among smart football people that trevor lawrence really is that guy and that was a mistake from the fantasy community to assume that the film analysis would translate into production this year i mean i was i was probably more skeptical than lawrence coming into the season than you. I don't think I have him on a single team. I thought he was being way overdrafted like he was going ahead of Justin Herbert for most of the redraft season. I didn't think there was any justification for that.

And we're now in a point where he's been relatively efficient. You know, 7.1 yards per attempt. It's a little higher than last season. The1 yards per attempt it's a little higher than last season the underlying stuff like on target rate a little higher than last season bad throw rate a little higher than last season as well but not alarmingly so the issue right now is just the touchdown rate this team has had a lot of trouble finishing off drives it's been a problem for them i mean you remember the chiefs game where he went 0 for 6 on throws into the end zone. He has a 3% touchdown rate right now. I think he has four touchdowns on 24 throws in the red

zone right now. He has the sixth lowest passer rating in the red zone in the NFL, which is weird because he only has one interception. So it's not I'm not sure exactly what's dragging it down, but it's incompletions. He's below 50 completion percentage in the red zone i i think there are probably some play calling issues um in jacksonville that are that are specifically holding him back maybe the situation's not quite as good as we thought it was with you know calvin ridley missing basically two years of football we kind of just can't assumed he was going to be a

a difference making wide receiver in a way that he has not been but it's not a like even with that and i assume this is what you're gonna say it's not a terrible situation like justin herbert's situation isn't dramatically worse or better is it i i don't know whose situation amongst the great quarterbacks. Jalen Hurts obviously has A.J. Brown and Devontae Smith. And he had Dallas Carter too. Tua's got Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell. But are you telling me Trevor Lawrence's situation is worse than Patrick Mahomes?

Or worse than Josh Allen's? Patrick Mahomes is way better. That's not even – Patrick Mahomes is – Way better. No, no, as a player. Oh. No, I'm just talking about situations. I think Josh Allen's situation is probably a little better.

Like, I'll take the one all-worldwide receiver over. Which is what we were hoping Calvin Ridley would be, and he's just not been that at all. I do think, and nobody seems to like this, people who like Lawrence or dislike him, but can't it just be that he is a very good quarterback who hasn't figured out the red zone yet right and and I think also part of it you know might just be he's a very good quarterback who's being held back by what should be a better situation but you know you look at like I think Calvin Ridley has lined

up outside it's some like absurd number like 90 percent of his snaps or something like they just aren't moving him around, even though he's really struggled with press man coverage. This is something that Dan Schneier has talked about a lot on the behind the box score podcast for the full FFT on Mondays. And they're just not doing it doesn't seem like they're doing anything to make trevor lawrence's life easier well and the other thing that calvin ridley is we saw in jacob gibbs tweet about this yesterday his yards per route run run basically the only year in atlanta that you can compare calvin ridley's yards per route run to this year every other year is what much higher was the year he played without julio yeah um i keep he has and he scored a bunch of touchdowns or something games he was already 26 at that point and so it was his third season in the nfl and so i think people viewed calvin ridley as this like ascending elite player but it was like that might have just been calvin ridley's peak

right as a physically and and that's something that because he entered the nfl at 24 this isn't a juju smithSchuster situation, right? Where Juju was great as a 21, 22-year-old in the NFL. Calvin Ridley was already at his physical prime. Although it's kind of a Juju Smith-Schuster situation. Well, in terms of the career arc, but I mean in terms of like, Juju was dominant as a 22-year-old

in his second year in the NFL. Calvin Ridley was 26 years old in his third year in the NFL. And I think we maybe collectively made the mistake of assuming there was more growth left there than there might have been. And then he's away from the league basically for two years, comes back as a 29-year-old, or 28. He turns 29 in December.

But he comes back as a 28-year-old, and maybe we definitely should have been a little more cautious about the way we talked about Calvin Ridley and his impact on this offense. So let's get to question number two. Do we take anything from the Cardinals' Week 10 target share? Kyler Murray's first game back, we saw 29% of the targets go to Trey McBride. 26% of the targets go to Rondale Moore. 19% for Michael Wilson. 13% for Marquise Brown, not one target for James Connor or any running back, I don't believe. And then other gets 13%.

So obviously I was expecting the same 30% target share for Marquise Brown. The thing that I think most people have accepted is great., Charlie McBride's awesome. Deal with that. But amongst the wide receivers, Brown, Wilson, Rondell Moore, do you think that could be more evenly split than we guessed? I wouldn't take too much from that right away. It's a one-game sample size. And one thing we know about Target share in particular is that it can fluctuate.

Like wide receiver production fluctuates a lot. The, you know, it's possible that I'm blanking on the Falcons, AJ Terrell. It's possible that Marquise Brown was just matched up with AJ Terrell a lot. And, and that was the explanation.

It's possible that, you know, the way the defense was covering them, a lot of short throws to Rondell Moore was was was the best way to approach it i i don't think you should take too much from a one game sample size i think the trey mcbride takeaway that's fair i like top five ten end i don't know what exactly but we're talking about a guy who had, I mean, really overwhelming college production. I think a 99 percentile dominator rating in college. Really good athlete. Just the eye test.

He looked great. You know, they were scheming up screens for him. They were getting, he was the first read on a lot of his throws. He also made some downfield. I think Trey McBride might just be like legitimate difference-making tight end the rest of the way. And moving forward for Dynasty, he has to be a top-ten guy right now, right? Oh, absolutely. Yeah. It's tough for me, and we'll talk about it with TJ Hawkinson in just a minute.

But that tight end, basically two through seven in Dynasty, I think you could make an argument for just about anyone i've got mcbride at six right now i don't have a strong feeling between laporta kincaid or mcbride um yeah i think there's good cases yeah yeah i think i would put mcbride third of that group but that's also just because he hadn't done anything before two three weeks ago you know really in his career like dalton kinkade right well yeah kind of but Dalton Kincaid at least had the first round draft capital and and you know right but like Laporta kind of looks like pre-week 11 or week 10 TJ Hawkinson where it's like this is a good player is this a great player it's like, this is a good player. Is this a great player? It's unclear. So, yeah, I think that's really it.

But, no, I'm not too concerned about Marquise Brown. Kyler Murray looked very good. I think the pass, he kind of looked like Joshua Dobbs. It looked like they just kind of shrunk Joshua Dobbs and put him back out there. And Joshua Dobbs seems like a pretty good player. But, you know, obviously I think we're hoping that Kyler Murray can bring some more upside to the table for this offense. And I think he will. But, you know, Marquise Brown, we're feeling better about him if he scores that touchdown.

You know, Kyler Murray had two close calls on touchdowns. I think one of them was a Michael Wilson one that got called back that Clayton Toon got the touchdown for, which was fun. So question number three, is C.J. Stroud a top five dynasty quarterback? I have moved him up to number four. I think the debate is Stroud versus Jackson, Herbert, and Burrow. And whether Stroud, who's four to five years younger than all of those guys, has shown enough in a half a season that you think his production is close enough to those guys that the age should rank him above them. I say yes while also noting that there's half a season left,

and it could change again. They're all really close. So when you talk about the age gap between, like, Justin Herbert is 26, CJ Stroud is 22. Is that the age gap here? Yes. So when you talk about that, you're not talking about that in a years remaining way, right? Not the way we would talk about a 26 versus 20. You're talking about CJ

Stroud having more room to grow into angry. Cause like the gap between 26 and 22, when I'm looking at a long-term perspective, I expect both of those guys, if they're elite players to be good until they're 35. I think that's true. It's true for sure. When you're talking about pocket passers,

when you're talking about Josh Allen being 27 and C.J. Stroud being 22, I think C.J. Stroud's shelf life might be twice that of Josh Allen's. Maybe. I think Josh Allen's probably getting underrated as a passer in that regard. Again, I would like to see him with a second wide receiver who can run let's just say a third route is that is that asking too much just one guy besides stefan diggs who can run three routes on the tree i think gabe davis can i think he's getting george pickens a little bit i i think gabe davis is a fourth rounder with decent physical traits who's just

biggest thing is that he's really big and can win contested catches. I, I don't think like, I don't know. Maybe you're right. Maybe he's just being used wrong. I think George Pickens is a much more talented player physically.

But maybe I'm wrong. I don't know. But yeah, I, I would still take Josh Allen, Patrick Holmes and, and Jalen hurts ahead of CJ Stroud. Even Allen, Patrick Holmes, and Jalen Hurts ahead of C.J. Stroud. Even if you could look at the timetable and say, well, C.J. Stroud has 10 years left as a dominant fantasy option and Josh Allen has five.

I don't actually know if that should matter. This is one of my dynasty takes that I just – I think five years down the road is probably way overvalued in a lot of it's not just the five versus ten sure is if unless josh allen is better as a passer like age 30 he's probably not running hardly at all yeah i or he's being hampered by injuries sure Sure. Yeah. I just, again, even that three or four years down the road, like what percentage of dynasty leagues currently active will still be active in four years? I hear that a lot. I've never actually, I can't think of a dynasty league that I've had that just went away.

You're in the 99.9th percentile of lots of things thank you for saying that chris adjacent to cj stroud as a top five dynasty quarterback we have a facebook poll good friend robert thomas put this out and it's uh it's a tank dell poll and i know chris is we're going to get to that in just a second we'll put that in the news section chris is a tank dell doubter um a naysayer if you will um so i ran a bunch of tank dell polls last night versus this player versus that player what i found is about 25 percent of people are true believers in tank dell and would rank him as a top 12 dynasty wide receiver right now and the majority of people have tank dell in that low end wide receiver right now. And the majority of people have Tank Dell in that low-end wide receiver two range. Well, on Facebook, 67% voting for 16 to 25 is where Tank Dell should rank in

PPR and Dynasty. Slightly more people voting outside of the top 25, nobody voting for outside of the top 36, and a few people have them at top 15 maybe 10 at top 15 does that sound about right to you chris low end number two wide receiver for tankdale at this point in dynasty i think that's reasonable yeah it's kind of interesting the the week 10 aspect of it where prior to week 10 the good tankdale games had just been outrageous outrageous efficiency on middling volume week 10 gets the volume dell games had just been outrageous outrageous efficiency on middling volume week 10 gets the volume and doesn't really have great efficiency still has a pretty good fantasy game but you know didn't necessarily produce the way the volume would make

you think and that's i think the question here and this is kind of a question for houston's offense as a whole it's just we've seen what it looks like when Stroud is running hot we've seen what it looks like when he's hitting on Noah Brown has six catches of at least 25 yards the past two games he had six in his entire career the first 49 games of his career so like we've seen what it looks like there what does it look like when Stroud struggles you know it's's always the adjustment to the adjustments is always the thing that I'm looking for with young players. And we haven't seen that yet.

It's an unknown unknown in that way. But I... Go ahead. No, that was my question was, didn't we kind of see that? Like Stroud came out and lit the world on fire, from my recollection the first three or four weeks of the season and then he went through a three or four week slump uh he had the he had a not great game against Atlanta he had a bad game against Carolina where

they weirdly decided that they just needed to run the ball against Carolina and that was enough um we haven't seen like a terrible efficiency stretch from him. We haven't seen a stretch where he's just been off target a bunch and dealt with some picks. We haven't seen a multi-pick game from him. And look, that's not a bad thing. It's a good thing that C.J. Stroud has two interceptions through his first ten games or nine games.

But there will be stretches like that. Every player goes through it. Patrick Mahomes has gone through stretches where he hasn't been the single most productive quarterback in NFL history. And then they've adjusted and we've seen that, yes, this guy is still the guy. And so it's not a knock against C.J. Stroud.

It's just an unknown so far. And it's true for this whole offense. But yeah, I think wide receiver two, low-end wide receiver two range for Tank Dell makes sense. Him versus Zay Flowers is a really interesting one. That was the one rookie that he beat in the polls. He beat Zay Flowers about 60 to 40 he was behind jsn i think 52 48 and it was basically 65 35 with puka and addison so he's he's right now according to twitter wide receiver four in the class behind addison then puka then jsn but just very very close to jsn and i think the interesting thing with dell is like it's easy to look at, is it third round pick or second round pick? Third round pick and early third round pick.

And think, well, the pedigree wasn't that great. The production was pretty insane, though. It was just that he's really small. And so he fell in the draft. Yeah, and that's, you know that small wide receivers are size i think matters less at the wide receiver position right now than it did 10 15 years ago um you know we've we've done this with davante smith and and you know tank dell's a different class of small because he's not just you know vante smith is at least six

feet tall and you know 125 pounds tank dell's is at least six feet tall and, you know, 125 pounds. Tank Dell's 5'8". There's a significant difference there. It's about four inches, if my math is correct. But yeah, you said I'm a Tank Dell doubter, and I don't think that's fair. I would just say that, like, we're waiting for, you know, redraft. We're waiting the three best games really, really high.

And that's, that's fair. But this is a Texans team that has spread the ball around a lot. Nico Collins has been out or limited the past two games when tank Dell has been really good. How much of this is tank Dell? How much of like, again,

Noah Brown has 320 yards over the past two games or whatever it is like this offense is running incredibly hot and what does the equilibrium look like that remains to be seen but i think that range you know wide receiver 15 to 24 or whatever it was it makes sense for tank dell only only correction is it's the four best games he's now got four games of at least 18 pbr fantasy points so it's it's half and half he's had some some really bad games as well though it'd be interesting to see where that goes let's get to the big news and and the first thing i wanted to talk about devon hn has had the practice window opened we are expecting him to return this week

i almost want to sell and i just wonder ch, Chris, what do you think the touch split looks like between A-Chan and Mostert? Do you think there's actually a chance that A-Chan is a top 12 running back rest of season? I think there's a chance, yes. The fact that the Dolphins have limited Raheem Mostert's work, even with A-Chan out. Like, Mostert's not getting 20 carries per game, and I don't think he can.

I think that suggests that there's still a lot of room for A-Chan to come back. However, we're talking about, what, three injuries now in the first four months that he's been in an NFL locker room? You know, he had the shoulder issue in the preseason. There was an abdominal... No, what was the other preseason injury? He had another injury, and now this knee thing. He's a small guy. So I do think that the Dolphins are probably going to be

pretty smart about his usage. They want to use multiple backs no matter what. So I don't think we're going to see devon achan get 20 carries you know if he gets 20 carries in a game the rest of the way i'd be pretty surprised so he's going to have to maintain the outlier efficiency i think he'll be very very efficient i wouldn't rank him as a top 12 running back the rest of the way and the the fact that he hasn't shown that he can handle the huge workload and in fact has given us evidence that he cannot early on there's there's a reasonable argument to be made for uh for selling right now before he gets back yeah

the other news and it just happened the comments if you're in the comments you've you've already seen it here on youtube uh the bills have relieved ken dorsey of his duties he will no longer be the offensive coordinator they will have joe br Brady running things for the Buffalo bills. Offense. Is this actually a good thing? This does not make me feel better. This does not make me feel better. It's one of those, you know, it's like the, the Justin Fields talk where should the, the bears just bench Justin Fields for Tyson Bajan? And you have some people arguing that they should.

And the only argument I can think in favor of it is just, if you just definitely think Justin Fields isn't your long-term answer, then sure, whatever. Who cares if you bench him? That's kind of the thing with Ken Dorsey, where if you just think he's actively harming the offense, then sure. If you can just get replacement level coordinating and you think he's been well below replacement level, fine.

I don't think there's any reason to look at what Joe Brady's done in his career and think, ah, yes, this is fixed now. I think there's more negative, there's more downside than upside. Yeah, but it might just be that we need a different voice. It could just be as simple as that. I don't know what's going on inside their building But it might just be that we need a different voice. It could just be as simple as that. I don't know what's going on inside their building and what's happening there, but it could just be as simple as change is good in this instance no matter what.

But it's certainly not the only outcome. Let's take a short break and then we'll get to the deep dynasty waiver wire. Okay, Chris, we've got three quarterbacks on the waiver wire this week that are 10% roster or less that I think could start in week 11, week 12, week 13, maybe the rest of the season. One of them might actually even matter. Desmond Ritter is 10% rostered after what we saw from Taylor Heineke. I don't think anybody would be surprised if after the buy they go back to desmond ritter and i would expect he'll be a low-end number two quarterback tommy devito actually looks like he's improving a little bit still just seven percent rostered might be a 2qb starter this week and and jamis winston at three percent rostered after the derrick carr injury They're hopeful that Carr is going to be ready after the bye,

but this is not the first injury for Carr. He's been struggling a little bit lately. Do you have interest in adding any of these three guys? Is Winston a must-add in a two-quarterback league, just in case? It's not great. I would feel a lot better about it, obviously, if the Saints and Falcons weren't on a bye this week. But I do think of these three, Desmond Ritter is probably the guy to add.

And he's the most widely rostered, so I'm not sure how helpful that is. But I would expect the Falcons are going to go back to him. They were moving the ball better with him at quarterback than they did with Taylor Heineke. It was just some poorly timed turnovers. You know, the fumble going into the end zone a couple times. So I would think he's going to be the starter moving forward. Jameis, if he is playing,

I think he'd probably be a top 20 quarterback as long as he starts, but they've already said like, they're not changing quarterbacks. It's just a question of if Derek Carr can play the fact that he's already played through the shoulder injury suggests that he's going to probably try to toughen this out and that makes me think that probably coming out of the bye Derek Carr is going to be the starting quarterback for the Saints I would agree with that the prize of the waiver wire is Ty Chandler we usually talk about 10% rostered or lower he's 15% but he needs

to be probably close to 90% we have Alexander Madison in the concussion protocol. Chandler has Kene Nwongu and Myles Gaskin to share with. In other words, we think Ty Chandler is going to lead this backfield. Had 15 carries, just three yards per carry, no targets in his most recent game. Did score a touchdown. Vikings fan Thomas would like for us to know that he also had another touchdown called back it was almost 30 yards and thomas could not be more excited about a joshua

dobbs ty chandler backfield like there's a legitimate chance that this is a devon singletary situation right where chandler starts a game and all of a sudden it looks like chandler is the starting running back for the vikings yeah although in the small sample size that we have, he has a lower success rate than Alexander Madison. I think he's averaging fewer yards per carry this season than Alexander Madison. So it's look, they can't run the ball well. That's been a thing, whether it's Cam Akers, whether it's Alexander Madison, whether it's Ty Chandler. Nobody has really run the ball well for the Vikings. So my guess is that Ty Chandler doesn't look all that great. And it just comes back to Alexander Madison getting 58% of the work and Ty Chandler getting 42% or whatever

it'll be moving forward. But yeah, there's a chance because Alexander, this is always the thing when, when we're talking about guys like Alexander Madison when you know we say well who else is going to get the work and it's just anybody who looks good if it happens it's just a question of does anyone else on the roster have more talent than Alexander Madison I don't necessarily think that's the case I think they're all probably pretty middling talents at the running back position. So yeah, there's a chance that Ty Chandler has one good game and just runs away with this job, but

it's not the likeliest outcome. If you were going to have a one-week audition to try to take the job away from Alexander Madison doing so... You'd like to stay against Arizona. Well, it's against the Denver Broncos. Oh, sorry, Denver, Denver, yeah. It's not quite the Josh Dobbs revenge game, but yeah, the Denver Broncos just gave up like nine yards per carry to James Cook,

and they've given up more yards per carry than any team in the NFL this year. So maybe Ty Chandler can be a high-end flex this week. He's the only guy that you're adding and actually thinking about starting in Week 11. A couple other running backs, though. Rico Dowdle, 14% rostered. Zamir White, 5% rostered. These guys, at the beginning of the year were the types of handcuffs who were rostered in 30 40 maybe 50% of leagues now we've had so much

turnover on the rosters they've kind of fallen out of favor Dowdle in particular I think because he's older probably available in more dynasty leagues than white but these guys both have the are just one injury away from 15-plus touches per game, right? Yeah, I mean, Dowdle already got 12 last week. It was another weird Cowboys blowout where they seem to be only playing in blowouts. And they are 10-point favorites this week as well, 10.5-point favorites. It's the Panthers, yeah. It could be another situation where Rico Dowdle,

it might make sense to project Rico Dowdle for double-digit carries because they're not just throwing Tony Pollard out there for 26 carries in blowouts. Yeah, I think Rico Dowdle is someone who, one injury away from an offense that is still a good situation for running backs. They're still generating a lot of high-value touches. I think Tony Pollard is still top five and expected fantasy points this

season per ESPN's metric. It's just that he's been a sub replacement level player so far this season. And if Dowdle can just be replacement level, he might be better in that situation, which is stunning to say, given the way we've talked about Tony Pollard the last few years, and maybe there's a lesson here that the way the Cowboys deploy their running backs makes the lead guy look less effective than they actually are, or makes the

secondary guy look more effective. But that's where we are. I wouldn't be completely surprised if down the stretch, we saw this turn into more of a committee. I mean, I think we're already starting to see it. There are more situations, you know, even before that game was a blowout, Dattel was getting work. There were you know, a couple of plays, at least in the first half where both were on the field, which

I don't know that Rico Dattel is such a such an incredible talent that you need to put two running backs on the field to accommodate him, but that's what they were doing. So yeah, I think we're we're already starting to see a little bit of a shift there. We've got two wide receivers on the waiver wire. One is probably a situation where he was rostered and then dropped, and maybe we ought to roster him again just to make sure.

I mentioned the Arizona target share. One guy who really seemed to benefit from Kyler Murray coming back was Rondale Moore, who saw his targets go back up more has seen some really high volume games with kyler murray under center he's just 18 percent rostered they use him occasionally running the football in fact i think he's averaging like seven yards per carry and has a touchdown i i would like to make sure that rondale moore is rostered in my dynasty leagues just to make sure that he doesn't have finished with a flurry here. Yeah. One of my maybe dumb takes is that Rondell Moore is a running back.

Yeah. Like he's built like a running back. He kind of plays like a running back. I kind of think it would be interesting if they just put him in the backfield 18 snaps a game and see what happens. But he was in the backfield. Sorry, I'm trying to look up what the actual number was last week. He was in the backfield for five snaps. So they use him there occasionally, but it's not a Debo Samuel situation.

I think it would be interesting if they did. No, it's Placebo Samuel. Placebo Samuel. Sure, there you go. No, I do think that his eight targets could be partially an explanation for James Conner having zero. I wonder if they'd rather just throw it to Moore out of the backfield, which could make him interesting in PPR. And the other guy, Trenton Irwin, I don't have any faith that T. Higgins is going to be ready for Thursday night football against the Ravens. I don't have a whole lot of faith that T. Higgins is going to stay healthy the next time he gets healthy.

So Irwin is someone, he's only 6% rostered. Just in deeper dynasty leagues, go make sure he's added. And I'll just throw one more out there. Tanner Hudson. You know how much I love Irv Smith, but Tanner Hudson has been the most involved Bengals tight end in the past. I think he has 17 PPR points over his last two games.

If you had to find a desperation option at tight end, he's barely rostered in 1% of leagues. So deeper tight end premium leagues, heed in one percent of leagues so deeper tight end premium leagues he might be interesting was irv smith third he was third on the team in tight end snaps this week the irv smith thing is not happening no it's it's over he did score a touchdown right before it's not happening so we we at least had that one last gasp of maybe it's happening let's talk about some dynasty risers and fallers. I've got four guys, not necessarily the biggest risers and fallers over the last week,

but definitely guys that I want to talk about at quarterback. We've got Joshua Dobbs moving from QB 34 to QB 26, as it looks more and more like he's not just going to be a starter for the Vikings rest of season, but he might be a starter for fantasy teams more often than not rest of the season with the way he's running and the fact he's getting ready to add Justin Jefferson. You don't have to be that good of a passer

if you've got Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hawkinson. Do you think that Dobbs could be a QB1 the rest of the year? And then I think the other question for dynasty purposes, is there any hope that Dobbs is going to get a chance to start week one next year somewhere? I think it's more likely than not right now that Joshua Dobbs is starting somewhere next season. And it might be Minnesota. This might be a Ryan Tannehill situation where, I mean, obviously Marcus Mariota versus Kirk Cousins isn't the same thing,

but Kirk Cousins is a free agent at the end of the year. And most people, I think, assume that the Vikings are going to move on. It could be a situation where Dobbs gets a chance to be that bridge quarterback. He's looked really good in that offense. They're playing with a lot of energy. He's getting tweets from NASA. It's great vibes in Minnesota right now with Joshua Dobbs. Yeah, I think the way he's played in filling in as an emergency qb now in three different spots over the past year and and looking

i mean there are a lot of incompetent quarterbacks in the nfl right now and joshua dobbs is not one of them like that was when i was watching that raiders uh jets game and just watching both of those guys it's just like neither of these guys belongs in the NFL. And I have not thought that about Joshua Dobbs. He doesn't have the arm talent. He makes a lot of weird decisions sometimes. But he looks like he belongs. He's not overwhelmed. And there are not a lot of teams that can say that about their quarterback.

So, yeah, I think it's more likely than not that Josh Dobbs is starting week one somewhere in 2024. And if that's Minnesota, he might be a top 15 quarterback to start next season. I was more okay with the idea that Cousins was going to be gone after this year before I saw Justin Jefferson wearing the Kirk Cousins chain and t-shirt on the sideline like in memory of Kirk Cousins.

If Justin Jefferson likes Kirk Cousins, then he's going to be back. I didn't know if Jefferson like cousins or not. So we'll, we'll find out, but that was kind of a statement for him to make. He didn't have to do that. Uh,

the follower at quarterback, uh, I don't want to talk about it. Gardner Minshew kind of almost trading places with Joshua Dobbs from QB 27 down to QB 32. It's just not looked very good the last couple of weeks. In fact, it's looked terrible.

It's I, nobody's ever thought of Gardner Minshew as a difference maker, but he was supposed to be that guy who lived in the 18 to 21 fantasy point per game range. And he had a difference maker right now. He had until really the last two or three weeks. Are you any hope at all that coming off the bye, Minshew can get back to that high-end QB2 range,

or is he just too in his own head right now? He looks shook out there. Yeah, I mean, we're quite a few years away from Carter Minshew looking good. He didn't look great the last year in Jacksonville. He had one good game, I think, in the two with Philadelphia, if I'm remembering correctly. looking good the last he didn't he didn't look great the the last year in jacksonville he didn't look he had one good game i think in the two with philadelphia if i'm remembering correctly it's not about looking good it's about it's about being able to live in that qb 15 ish range and he doesn't look like he can do that right now right no i yeah i my my belief in gardner minshu has definitely

been shaken uh by his play and that's another one where Josh Downs hasn't really played the last couple of weeks. I think he had four targets last week. So, you know, maybe that's hurting. This team just does not have a lot of weapons outside of Michael Pittman if Josh Downs is not right. So it could be a situation where that's holding him back. But, yeah, I think he's absolutely not looking like that guy who can be a bridge quarterback anymore. Right. No, I would agree with that.

If we're talking about running backs, the riser Keaton Mitchell, I don't know what to do with this guy. I really have no idea what to do with him, but he's rocketing up my running back rankings, if only because there's like 15 running backs that I want to roster. So might as well put the guy who looks like he has insane upside, but doesn't have the touches at RB 29. He was RB 43 coming into the week, three touches. And he moves up 14 spots to RB 29. They're talking about,

they're going to give him more touches. You can't continue to be as good as he's been without getting more touches. Right? Yeah. I mean, that was the thing, you know, from a redraft perspective,

I had him as a winner coming out of week 10. It was a little weird because it's like he had three touches. But all you need from him is to keep looking like a difference maker. And eventually they're going to have to give him more touches, like you said. So I do think that's the situation. Imagine how much more he would have moved up if he hadn't dropped a touchdown, but that usage, you know, even the fact that they're throwing downfield passes into the end zone to him, it just suggests what they think about this kid's talent and his ability to be a

game-breaking player in an offense that for all that they do well, certainly doesn't have any game-breaking running backs. You know, Guswards gets you about what is blocked and then an extra yard and a half when he falls forward but that's about it no for sure yeah i'm i'm hopeful i mean i just i think it only takes 10 to 12 touches probably and he's someone that we're starting so let's hope that happens zach moss was rb 45 down to rb 58 it's basically over unless, or is it Jover? Whatever the people say, unless Jonathan Taylor gets hurt, Zach Moss is just going to sit on your bench and you're going to hope that he gets a chance. Let's move. We don't need to talk about him at wide receiver.

I want to talk about the Packers. I tweeted this out earlier in the week, Jaden Reed up from wide receiver 56 to wide receiver 47. He leads Packers pass catchers in yards per route run yards per target yards per game he's second in yards per reception i still have christian watson who was all another faller slightly ahead of jayden reed when it comes to dynasty ranking but for a rookie and and your quote tweet of this was basically it's hard to care who the number one wide receiver for the packers is with the

way this offense looks and i get that except we expect rookies to get better in the second half of their season and so if jayden reed is becoming the number one maybe it's not quite like you see this seven targets for watson five for dobbs five for Reed five or four for Musgrave maybe he can actually become the number one how do you view this receiving core from a dynasty perspective do you want any of them it's such a weird situation because they're all Dobbs was a fourth rounder right yeah he was a fourth rounder but Watson and Reed are both second rounders Reed's interesting because he plays a lot bigger than he is he's only 511 but like he looks big when he's out there which you know I don't He was a fourth rounder, but Watson and Reed are both second rounders. Reed's interesting because he plays a lot bigger than he is.

He's only 5'11", but he looks big when he's out there, which I don't know how much that actually matters. Maybe it's just that he happens to be making a handful of big plays that make him look better than he is. But my sense is that they've got a lot of similar-ish guys. They've got what I think is a bad quarterback. I haven't been impressed by the play design or play calling for them so I I think the likeliest outcome is that none of these guys truly matter and they're all still in that wide receiver four range and it's just whoever hits on a big play or scores a touchdown in any given any given week looks like the better option but

um yeah I think it's a reasonable bet to you know take a guy who has flashed early in his career and hope that he'll continue to grow in Jaden Reed. I would still rather have Christian Watson. He's demonstrated the upside we're hoping to see from the other guys, but he doesn't look like a difference maker to me. My faller at wide receiver, Chris Godwin, was wide receiver 28, which if you told me that a year ago would have seemed way too low. He's down to wide receiver 34.

It's been a disgusting season for Chris Godwin. Mike Evans, just the clear number one in terms of fantasy production for this team. Another year with touchdown problems for Godwin. He's no longer young, and he's not quite old yet, but he's right where he's supposed to be peaking, and that's not happening. What's your long-term outlook for Chris Godwin? Do you think that he can get back to being in that top 12 discussion,

or are we just hoping that he becomes a wide receiver two again? Yeah, I think he belongs in the wide receiver two range. Like you said, he's going to be 28 early in the offseason. We are a few years removed from true difference-making production. He was good but not great last season, a lot of volume. And, yeah, Mike Evans, despite being 31, is still the clear number one wide receiver here. Target share is higher than Chris Godwin's.

That's the opposite of what I expected. I expected both Godwin and Evans to be decent values in 2023 because it felt a lot like Seattle last year where everybody was just like, this offense is going to be so bad. There's no way they're good. And it's like, if Baker Mayfield's just fine and he's been fine this year, those guys are going to be decent values.

But clearly Mike Evans has been a lot more than decent and Godwin hasn't. Yeah, I don't godwin hasn't turned back into the like downfield possession receiver that he was at his best with jamis winston and you know the the touchdown issues i think are are real you know and he's not enough like i think there were people who thought well brady's gone so the running back target share will go down so godwin's going to be an elite. He's not an elite target earner unless you're throwing 700 passes. Sean Norton asks a question in the chat,

and I think this is an important point to make. With Mike Evans out next year, what happens? I think if Mike Evans was going to be out next year, they would have traded him at the deadline. There's no reason to hold on to a 31-year-old wide receiver if you're not... They see him retiring with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yeah, and the fact that he's still asccaneers yeah and he's the fact that

he's still as good as he is he's aging incredibly gracefully there's no real reason like there should be a drop off at some point but you know is there a world where he has like a an adam thielen you know maybe might at this point be a third career for both of them but like moves inside plays a big slot role, and continues to produce. I think that's possible. All right, tight end, the riser. This one's maybe going to sound a little bit weird, but TJ Hawkinson moved from 6-2 in my Dynasty tight end rankings,

and it just shows you how close 2-7 really are. But it also is an adjustment of, I went from, okay, Kirk Cousins is out. This could be a disaster for TJ Hawkinson because Justin Jefferson's coming back to, okay, Joshua Dobbs is there. It's going to be okay, but not great. And now it's hard to make an argument against Hawkinson being a top three tight end for the rest of the season, because we do have the history of Dobbs throwing the ball 30% of the time to his tight ends in Arizona, 28% when he was there in Tennessee. And now he just cannot stop throwing it to TJ Hawkinson.

And he's a year or two younger than Mark Andrews. Like I think you could make the argument for Hawkinson as the number one tight end and dynasty right now. I've, I've watched a decent amount of football in my life and I can't think of a situation where I saw a player look more miserable every time they got hit than TJ Hawkinson last week and still keep performing the way he did. Like,

I guess it was like one catch in the second half. So he, he did slow down, but yeah, he was remarkable. There's, you know, what we're seeing is a little bit of a bounce back in the efficiency for him

after, you know, he got to Minnesota last year and was just a high volume compiler. He's been a little more than that. It's still not great efficiency, seven yards per target, but 75% catch rate with the average depth of target, you know, up or yeah, up a little bit with Dobbs so yeah i think um i think there's absolutely not really any case for him not to be a top three tight end in dynasty and the rest of the season for sure yeah right so the faller is kyle pitts he used to be a top three tight end in dynasty he's been falling throughout the season fell from tight end five to tight end seven now

this was the consensus 101 in rookie drafts and look what arthur smith has done um are you are you still hopeful like pitts was just 22 coming into the year it's a lot of tight ends there'll probably be a rookie who gets brought into the league next year who's older than Kyle Pitts. Are you still hopeful that he becomes a difference maker at tight end, or is it over? You can't say it's over with a guy who turned 23, 39 days ago. You just can't. There's too much room for him to grow. He's too physically gifted.

I don't think it's going to happen in atlanta the question is whether atlanta moves him this offseason whether he's disgruntled whether you know they find a quarterback there's a lot of there's a lot of things that need to change for kyle pitts but i still believe the talent is there it's just by low situation is not good by low if you're a rebuilder. Let's take a short break, and we'll finish up by ranking the top 12 running backs in Dynasty. Hopefully the chat can tell me where I'm wrong. Okay, Chris, I know if the chat doesn't tell me where I'm wrong, you will.

We'll take this six at a time, so I'll give you the top six. I don't know if maybe we'll just show all 12 at once, but Bajon Robinson is still number one, although it's closer than it's been since he was drafted. Jameer Gibbs is my RB2. Brees Hall, RB3. Those three almost interchangeable for me. Travis Etienne at RB4. Jonathan Taylor at RB5.

Ken Walker at RB6. So we've got Bajon, Gibbs, Hall, Et, ETN Taylor Walker. Where did I go wrong in those top six? I don't think he did. I think that that ranking makes sense. Hall, it's hard to say with Brees Hall. There are things in his profile this season that he's been extremely hit or miss. It's like 50-yard gain or two-yard gain for Brees Hall.

And how much of that is just he's not 100% healthy? How much is that one of the worst situations in the NFL for a running back to be in right now? It's hard to say. The talent is clearly there. The upside is clearly there. I think the upside is as high as anyone. But, yeah.

And then, as the commenter, Raphael, says, Jonathan Taylor versus Travis Et etn i think is an interesting discussion because etn very much more so than i think these other guys being propped up by touchdowns and volume in a way that we didn't necessarily expect the efficiency's taken a big step backwards i think that's partially a result of getting so much volume and partially the jaguars offense just hasn't been very good but the thing about etn is as a rookie he didn't look like a great pass catcher you know they didn't really use him that way there were very few anything more

than dump offs but we're starting to see some more downfield looks some more opportunities for him to split out wide and really look like a legitimate playmaker in the passing game in a way that definitely increases his ceiling. So ETN versus Taylor, I think Taylor's a more talented player. So I might default to him, but it's very close. I do think that ETN is really benefiting from playing with a game manager like Trevor Lawrence, who can just get the ball to his running back, especially in the red zone. So we'll go seven through 12. I do, I do, I'm going to give the chat just a minute or two because they haven't seen who number seven is.

So I just wonder who everybody else would put at seven. And again, the top six were Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, Brees Hall, Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor, Ken Walker. Who should come after those top six? I don't know. If you are a contender, it's definitely Christian McCaffrey. But my next six right now, Devon Achan, Christian McCaffrey, DeAndre Swift,

Josh Jacobs, Javante Williams, and Austin Eckler. This is so dependent on where you are in your league. I wait this season less and less as the year goes on. And so that would make some make up for some of the HN over McCaffrey. But obviously, it sounds ridiculous. If you're trying to win this year, McCaffrey should have been in the top five. Again, the next six Chris HN McCaffrey, Swift, Jacobs, Javante Williams, Austin Eckler. Where did I go wrong? This is where things get really weird. I think there's that clear top six.

And even Walker, I think, is probably a clear step or two behind Jonathan Taylor and Travis Etienne. So I think it's a clear top five. And then after that, it's really strange. I can't look at anybody outside of your top 12 and say that they definitely need to be higher maybe you could make a case for saquon barkley but there's so much uncertainty about his future and it's a situation where if he goes back to new york in the offseason i have no reason to think that there's going to be a ton of upside in that offense so i like swift feels too high i think i'd rather have jacobs than swift uh there there's a less of a gap in their ages than i think most people think because josh jacobs is one of

those guys who came into the nfl really young uh swift was pretty young as well but you know jacobs has i think a clear situation edge i think he has a clear workload edge so i would take him over swift i think i would move swift down below eckler i think i would rather have eckler just because what we've seen from this philadelphia offense is the lead running back is a very good fantasy option they're not necessarily the great fantasy option you think they are because you know swift has a 12 target share share, I think, this season. That's very good for the Eagles offense, but it's not great for a running back. It's pretty good.

Right. And again, I think it just it's so dependent on where you are. for me, especially by week 10 or 11, half the teams in the league should not view Austin Eckler probably as a top 20 running back. He's going to be 29 years old before he plays football next year. That's fair. Now, maybe he'll keep being awesome,

but my system's not set up very well to like 29-year-old running backs. But, you know, and Swift will be 25 next season. He's a free agent. He's a free agent, right? I think that's right. So we don't know if he's going to be 25 next season. He's a free agent. He's a free agent, right? I think that's right. So we don't know if he's going to be back in Philadelphia. Presumably that could put him in a better situation,

but that's not necessarily how things work for running backs. He could sign a $25 million guaranteed deal with Carolina, for instance. That didn't work out very well for Miles Sanders. No. So that's the thing. The situation could be worse in 2024. It could be deandre swift in a clear committee and and that wouldn't be great so yeah i i think it's to say that there's a clear top five and then after that at the that we're still waiting for the second group of running backs, especially the younger guys, to really establish themselves.

And this is where, like, Javante and J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers and that running back class of the last four years has had a lot of injuries and a lot of stops and starts. We're really feeling that on the Dynasty RB landscape. Yeah, if we could get, like, I would assume that we're going to have three or four rookie running backs that are in this top 12 when we get to September of next year. So that's where these, that's who's going to fill these spots. Probably not the guys who are ranked 13 for 24 right now. That is going to do it for this week's edition of Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I want to thank everybody who was active in the chat. Thank you, Chris, for being here today. And we will talk to you next Tuesday.