Fantasy Football Today - Rankings! Top 12 in PPR! (06/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 21, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Let's talk about the best of th...e best in Fantasy for 2023! We're revealing our consensus Top 12 in PPR with debates throughout the show. We've got some quick questions to kick it off (4:40): Why isn't Cooper Kupp the top pick? Does Christian McCaffrey have serious competition in his backfield? Do we expect to see the same Top 6 (in some order) in most drafts? ... News and notes (10:30) on Tyreek Hill, Sony Michel, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Giants wide receivers. Then we'll get into our Top 12 with Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase ahead of all the running backs (17:15). Meanwhile, should Austin Ekeler be RB1 (24:40)? And when should Travis Kelce be drafted (28:15)? ... Looking at 7-12 in the rankings, we debate Saquon Barkley vs. Jonathan Taylor (34:10)! How good will Bijan Robinson be (38:10)? Should we just take Stefon Diggs ahead of those RBs (45:05)? Does CeeDee Lamb deserve to be a first round pick (52:05) ahead of Davante Adams and a few others? ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:43 No, I can. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races! And he stays on his feet! It's just gonna go the distance! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to your Wednesday edition of Fantasy Football Today. What's up, everyone?
Starting point is 00:02:05 I'm Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg and Dan Schneier. Dan, two more episodes for you this week, and I know you're already practicing for Fantasy Jeopardy on Friday. I got a lot on the line. Last time I got on Fantasy Jeopardy, it was embarrassing to say the least. Of course, Adam puts me against Heath again. You can't put me against somebody else. You can't bring on
Starting point is 00:02:21 Marone or something to get in here and give me someone I can beat. Did I pronounce it right that time, Jamie? Why do you think you would beat Marone? I know. I definitely wouldn't beat Marone. It's sharper than anyone here. I need someone else than Marone. I don't want to throw anyone under the bus, though. All right. Well, that's coming up on Friday. Tomorrow, we'll talk about 13 through 24 in our PPR rankings today, looking at the consensus top 12 in PPR, which I think will be more or less a consensus top six in some order, and then seven through 12 will be a lot of the same names, but I think a little bit more difficult to figure out. I'll ask you a few questions about the top 12, and then we'll get into it player by player. We have a few news items to get to, including obviously the Tyreek Hill news. First, though, oh my gosh, the bit...
Starting point is 00:03:06 I don't know. Been doing this since 2009 with you guys. Well, with Jamie, Dan, much more recent than that. But is this the coolest thing that I'm going to be able to say? The biggest announcement I've ever made. Amazing. You know we were giving away that spot in the Dynasty League for St. Jude as part of our draft-a-thon.
Starting point is 00:03:26 And I was like, you know, I think maybe we could get anywhere from a few hundred bucks to maybe three, four thousand bucks. I thought maybe someone would go $21,400. I don't know if I'm allowed to give out the name yet. I will as soon as, you know, it's cool with him. Say who bid on it, but $21,400 raised for St. Jude for a spot in our startup dynasty league. Blown away. Dan, this is just the beginning of what's going to be an incredible drive, raising so much money for St. Jude. Yeah, this was incredible. It blew me away as well. Thank you to, and we're not going
Starting point is 00:04:05 to renounce the name, but thank you to whoever it was who made this bid 58 bids. I see. That's just awesome to see too. There was a ton of action. I really did think that if we got to a few thousand, it would be an incredible win. And to get this high, it just shows how great the community is, how willing people are to help donate to this cause. And as everyone knows, who's followed us with draft the thon, this is only the start. We're going to go all the way through August. There's going to be a lot of fun events coming up that you can participate in. There's going to be other bids you can get yourself involved in.
Starting point is 00:04:32 They're going to be cheaper than this. You're not going to have to spend $20,000. Anything you'd want to do to help donate to St. Jude, we love you for, and we're excited for as well. This is just a great way to start this, though. I mean, last year, I don't think we had anything nearly as exciting until maybe July, late July, August. So to get this going early June, mid June, it's awesome. And thank you very much for all of you who bid and there will be other opportunities to get in leagues with us. All right. Yeah. I don't know, Jamie, did you want
Starting point is 00:04:58 to say anything? I didn't want to cut you off there. No, I mean, uh, you know, again, I, I think it will be exciting when we do reveal who actually did it. But, you know, that person has reached out to you and to me and, you know, thanking them privately, I don't think just does it justice for the donation and the cause and the kind words that were said as well. You know, so just truly, truly appreciative, you know, to that individual, to some other individuals. You know, we've referenced them over the years that continue to donate. And it's just amazing. You know, I mean, you know, we do this as our jobs. It's obviously a fun part of our job, you know, is, I mean, everything really about our job is fun. But, you know, this is for such a worthwhile cause. And to see people rally around it, uh,
Starting point is 00:05:45 with whatever small amount they could donate, or in this case, you know, a significant amount. It's just, it's just fascinating. You know, it just blows me away.
Starting point is 00:05:50 You know, I was, I was moved to tears today when, when I got the note about the person that made the donation just because of the, the, the things that they said, but you know,
Starting point is 00:05:58 just the, uh, the, the ability to do, do what they did. And it wasn't just, obviously it wasn't just him, all the other people who donated,
Starting point is 00:06:05 you know, wrote, you know, made that go up to $21,400 in a week, by the way. Incredible. All right. Let's get to today's topic here, our top 12. First question for you.
Starting point is 00:06:14 Quick questions here. Jamie, why isn't Cooper Cup number one overall? He's been by far the best per game two years in a row. Now you have to azer stat it a little bit because I'm going to throw out the game he didn't play with Stafford
Starting point is 00:06:25 this year. But if you do count only the Stafford games, the eight games he played with Stafford, he was like three and a half points better than Justin Jefferson in PPR. And it would have been two straight years averaging at least 25 points per game, which is incredible in PPR. Why isn't Cooper Cup number one overall?
Starting point is 00:06:41 I think just age, for me, is the biggest concern. And the fact that he's 30, the fact that Stafford considered retirement and couldn't finish the season last year. So, you know, he's going to be open when he's on the field. He's always open. It's the most amazing thing to ever watch him play. You know, it's like, you know, the ball's going to him. I don't think Van Jefferson and I'm going to butcher the other guy's name.
Starting point is 00:07:02 Puka is going to, you know, threaten his targets.uka. Nakua. Is going to threaten his targets. Tyler Higby's not going to threaten his targets. He's not going to turn into a running team. But the fact that he couldn't finish the season last year and the fact that Stafford couldn't finish the season last year, you have to be a little bit concerned because he is hitting that point. We've talked about this. Receivers, when they turn 30, they start to hit that cliff,
Starting point is 00:07:20 and hopefully that's not the case for him. You want to get in there, Dan? Where would you take Cooper Cup? Where is he for you? He's wide the case for him. You want to get in there, Dan? Where would you take Cooper Cup? Where is he for you? He's wide receiver four for me, but I teeter back and forth to three and four. I think Jamie brings up the number one red flag, but I even feel like the second thing he mentioned
Starting point is 00:07:36 is even bigger scare for me. It's Matthew Stafford and his health and just where they're at as a team. If he has an issue with an injury next year, this coming season, I mean, what are the chances that they're going to keep him playing through that toward the end of the season if they fall out of the race and they're trending toward that number one overall pick,
Starting point is 00:07:52 which some people think is possible? I don't know if it's possible if Stafford's healthy. That's really the big question mark for me because if he loses Stafford, he loses that rapport that he had with him, Cup, and obviously the production will go down. The age is also a factor, but it's not only that that i mean his competition for what the one and two spots and for me the third spot where i have tyree kill his competition for one and two justin jefferson jamar chase also have a lot of accolades to their to their name which we're about to go over and
Starting point is 00:08:16 reasons to believe that they should be you know that they're not too far behind even on the per game basis even if you azar stat. But the other side of it is definitely, you can Acer stat this. He had five top 10 wide receiver finishes in just nine games last year in PPR. And he was still third in target share fourth and target per route run rate, which is a, you know, rate stat advanced stat that Justin, I mean, sorry, that Jacob Gibbs brings up a lot that I, that I kind of follow him on. I think it's very predictable and the air yards were there as well last year. I think he was top 12 in that. So, you know, he has the profile you like, but I think he has two players who are competing with him
Starting point is 00:08:49 who have a good case for wide receiver one as well. All right. Second question here. Does Christian McCaffrey have the most carry competition? Okay, not his catches. Does he have the most competition for carries of any of the first round running backs? There are five of them.
Starting point is 00:09:06 McCaffrey, Eckler, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Saquon Barkley. Jamie, does Christian McCaffrey have the most competition for carries among all five first round running backs?
Starting point is 00:09:17 I would anticipate that being the case. It's just a matter of there's so many carries available in Atlanta. If they're going to replicate the offense where they were number one in, in, in carries at five 59, then I think Tyler Algier and or quarter old Patterson, the combination of the two will take maybe enough away. You know, if you want to split up the percentages, you know, may come out in favor of Atlanta or this favor of Atlanta, you know, for,
Starting point is 00:09:41 for Bijan by comparison. But yes, I mean, if Elijah Mitchell is healthy, it's concerning. You know, there was significant, you know, 67 to 62 over the six games that they played together, including the playoffs. That was the carry differential for McCaffrey with a five carry edge. So yes, you got to be a little bit concerned about McCaffrey. It makes me a little skittish with him, just knowing that there is the potential of, especially when we get to the end of the season, if everybody's healthy and they're
Starting point is 00:10:10 trending in the direction that they should be, heading to the playoffs, do they start to pull back on McCaffrey's workload a little bit, which is fancy playoff time, to make sure he's healthy for that NFL playoff run. 67-62, we will always bring that up. Also, that was, as Jamie just said,
Starting point is 00:10:25 the amount of carries that McCaffrey had compared to Mitchell in the six games they played together, including the playoffs. But the difference between McCaffrey in those six games with Mitchell, he averaged 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Without him, five regular season games that he played without Elijah Mitchell, he averaged 25.8. So that's nine points per game difference. I'm not saying that's going to happen again.
Starting point is 00:10:51 I don't think the split will be nearly as even. I don't think anybody does. But it is something we'll be talking about a lot. Last question. I think Dan's going to say no. Well, maybe he's going to say yes, but it wouldn't be the case for him because I was surprised you said you had Cooper Cup at wide receiver four. I feel like the top
Starting point is 00:11:08 six are going to be, in some order, Jefferson Chase Cup, McCaffrey, Eckler, Kelsey. You feel like that's going to be the consensus industry top six, in some order, the top three wide receivers, McCaffrey, Eckler,
Starting point is 00:11:24 and Kelsey? Yeah, I think it's going to be that way i mean my rankings are slightly different i have tyree kill over cooper cup and i see more of a ceiling play there and i see less of a chance of dropping off in production there so but i think consensus will probably have cup in that mix and not hill all right we have a lot of other podcasts that you can listen to or watch on youtube you can always watch us on youtube at youtube.com slash fantasy football today. But other podcasts, we've got soccer podcasts. We've got combat sports, morning combat, great show. We've got pick six for NFL. We've got college football. Catch up on all your recruiting news. I mean, we've got so much. Go to CBS sports.com slash podcasts and check it all out. Let's go to our news and notes. Jamie, what do you think, what do you make of this Tyreek Hill situation? Police investigating assault and battery allegations involving Tyreek
Starting point is 00:12:12 Hill. We're going to talk about him as a I think number seven in the consensus rankings right now. What do you think? I mean, obviously you got to wait to see how the investigation plays out so everything is alleged at this point. point so you know you don't want to jump to conclusions and we know that the legal process has to you know clearly be involved here until the NFL makes a determination
Starting point is 00:12:34 because as we've seen with the Alvin Kamar case you know that's still going on from the Pro Bowl following the 2021 season this could linger for for a while So I don't know how much this is going to impact Tyree Kill's 2023 season. But again, this is a player that does have some history, you know, of, you know, off field incidents that could come back, you know, in terms of the moral code or whatever the NFL calls it, you know, that where Roger Goodell can maybe step in here. Hopefully, you know, this is, you know, something that won't keep him from playing you know again you don't want to jump to conclusions I actually had to do a magazine write-up about Tyree Kill because for another publication because we have to comment on our picks he was my first pick at ninth overall and I almost didn't like I didn't know what to say you know it's such a hard
Starting point is 00:13:20 thing to you know give advice on because we're not drafting right now which is you know fantasy is always secondary in situations like this. But in any event, I think if he plays, as long as there's nothing pending prior to the start of the season, I think you're still drafting him as a first-round pick. We get further news on it, that will sort of change things. How about this 17-game pace for Tyreek Hill when Tua Tungabailoa was healthy?
Starting point is 00:13:43 Not the games he missed, not the games he left early with an injury, just the games he played fully. 17-game pace for Tyreek Hill was 119 catches, 1,768 yards, and 10 touchdowns on 173 targets. So that's really not that much worse than Justin Jefferson. It's more touchdowns, it's 40 fewer yards, and it's nine fewer catches. That was with a healthy Tua. More news items.
Starting point is 00:14:10 I don't think we talk about enough the amazing scenario that he left Patrick Mahomes and in a lot of ways was better. Yeah. And Patrick Mahomes loses him and in a lot of ways was better. And Patrick Mahomes loses him, and in a lot of ways was better. It's just, it's so fascinating based on his talent and their talent and just how they've been able to,
Starting point is 00:14:35 okay, we've managed and he's managed. And kudos to both of the abilities of the players and what they're able to do on the field. The Rams signed Sonny Michel, who just did in 2021, just two seasons ago, he had a six-game stretch where he averaged more than 20 carries per game.
Starting point is 00:14:54 He had 129 carries in six games, 540 yards, three touchdowns. Does Sonny Michel matter to anyone? No, but we did just hear recently Sean McVay say Cam Akers is going to be a big part of this offense, so that kind of gives it a little bit of a scare, but
Starting point is 00:15:09 I feel like more so this is just at that base signing the Rams don't really have much behind Cam Akers, so throw him in the mix, but maybe have it temper your expectations a bit for Akers. I think it's more just Zach Evans, if you're hoping he might
Starting point is 00:15:25 be on the team. Amonra St. Brown wants to be used downfield more this season. That would be something because he was not, he had a really, really low ADOT. So if he is used downfield, maybe more yards, but fewer catches. He had two fewer catches than Stephon Diggs, but 268 fewer yards.
Starting point is 00:15:42 Amonra St. Brown had 18 more catches than A.J. Brown, but 335 fewer yards. Amonra St. Brown had 18 more catches than A.J. Brown, but 335 fewer yards. And here's a Giants note for Dan Schneier. Wandale Robinson, according to the New York Post, might be a candidate to start the season on the pup list. He is not as far along in his recovery as Sterling Shepard is. And Paris Campbell is the talk of the town.
Starting point is 00:16:02 Has he entered a draft discussion for you, Paris Campbell? Yeah, I think he should. He had a great set of OTAs, a great mini camp. He's working as the slot. He was the favorite target besides Waller. I mean, at this stage, the last we heard with Wanda Robinson before this was that he was progressing well in his recovery and things should be okay and he should be fine.
Starting point is 00:16:22 Now it's pupless potentially for the start of the season. That's the first six games of the year. We'll see if that plays true, but if he's out of the mix, all his competition for the slot will be then Paris Campbell's competition for slot will only be Sterling Shepard and Sterling Shepard hasn't been able to stay on the field. So for a really,
Starting point is 00:16:37 any of his last few seasons. So I think Campbell definitely belongs in the mix. We saw what that role was for Richie James last year. And Campbell's definitely an upgrade over Richie James. Where do you see Jalen Hyland lining up? On the bench. Right now, with the third team. He's working mostly with the third and second team. I think he'll be working
Starting point is 00:16:54 with the mix eventually, but I think it will probably have to be the slot in year one. He didn't really show much wide receiver on the outside at Tennessee. He didn't really show much in general against press man coverage, so I don't know if the Giants can trust him there yet. That's enough Giants talk for today, except
Starting point is 00:17:10 Saigon Barkley is in our top 12, so we'll talk about him a little bit later. We'll take a quick break here. Top 12 in PPR when we come back. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit.
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Starting point is 00:18:14 It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Okay, the top 12 players in point per reception scoring. When was the last time I actually said what PPR stands for? I think we probably know. So if you go to our rankings page, cbssports.com slash fantasy slash football slash rankings, or just go to cbssports.com slash fantasy,
Starting point is 00:18:35 and you can click a couple links and get to the rankings. We now have the consensus rankings on the left, and then we have Jamie's, and then we have Dave's, and then we have Heath's. Dan and I are not cool enough to be on this left. And then we have Jamie's, and then we have Dave's, and then we have Heath's. Dan and I are not cool enough to be on this page. So the consensus rankings are Jefferson, Chase, McCaffrey, Kelsey, Eckler, Cup.
Starting point is 00:18:56 So that is that top six I was talking about. The first six are Jefferson, Chase, McCaffrey, Kelsey, Eckler, Cup. And Jamie, you have almost that exact top six, except you have Bijan Robinson ahead of Cooper Kup. But Jefferson, Chase, McCaffrey, Kelsey, Eckler, Kup. First question, what do you think about the first two picks being wide receivers?
Starting point is 00:19:20 I feel like that's probably pretty unusual. Yeah, I would say so. Usually you see last year Jonathan Taylor, last couple of seasons Christian McCaffrey, as well as last year in the mix. I just think they're the safest players with just as much upside as anybody. We've seen what Jefferson has been. We know what Chase has been on a per-game basis last year
Starting point is 00:19:41 and even the early part of his career. They're tied to strong systems and quarterbacks that will certainly get them the ball enough and make them successful enough. Jefferson benefited with the addition of Kevin O'Connell. You saw what Joe Burrow has become to help Jamar Chase. And so I think when you're talking about what their abilities are, where they are in their careers in terms of age, which gives them the edge of a cup, to me it's a no-brainer. Heath is probably a better person to ask why he has Chase over Jefferson.
Starting point is 00:20:09 I know we've talked about that quite a bit. He goes back to his points per game and the potential of what Jordan Addison could become to maybe detract from some of what Justin Jefferson does. But to me, Jefferson's the easy number one choice and Jamar Chase the easy number two. What do you think about that, Dan? Because Eckler, Eckler's been a stud two years in a row and he averaged more points per game than both of them, I believe. Yeah, he did. He averaged 22.3 points per game and Justin Jefferson averaged 21.5 points per game.
Starting point is 00:20:41 Cup, like I said, was better than that. Cup was at 22.6 points per game, but again, with Stafford, it was closer to 25 points per game cup like i said um was better than that cup was at 22.6 points per game but again with stafford it was closer to 25 points per game um yeah i mean is it is that it is it's just age because these running backs are getting older we were saying the same thing about eckler last year and he was amazing he's now reaching a different stage of that age bracket though and i think he's going to be 27 this year, 28, 28, 28 this year. Sorry. It's going into 27 last year. So higher chance. I also feel like there's a possibility of that offense takes totally different shape this year and is better in the red zone through the air
Starting point is 00:21:15 with Kellen more calling the plays and Quinton Johnson now in the mix. So I think you could see a change there for me. Those factors are enough to boost the other two players. I do have Jefferson and chase one. I mean, some of these stats for these two players, Jefferson and chase really stand out to me. Jefferson, um, has more PPR points in his first three years as an NFL player than any wide receiver in history. And he did that despite only having the 25th most touchdowns over that period. So if there is any possibility for some touchdown regression here with Jefferson, I mean, we're talking about someone who's going to set the, set the record at some point fantasy. I mean, he had four finishes wide receiver one last year, two as the wide receiver two overall, again, not with a lot of touchdowns last year.
Starting point is 00:21:57 There are some issues I have with Jefferson. The only thing is four games with six targets or fewer in all those games, including one I watched, um, against the giants. He actually had seven in that one. And when I watched against the giants, they just use bracket coverage against him the whole time, but that may not be possible this year. If Jordan Addison plays as well as some people expect him to, that's going to change how defenses can defend Jefferson. So that's another tip in his cap. Then for chase the case for chase, I mean, over Jefferson would just be the red zone role. I think he had 28 red zone targets last year. That was the most of the NFL 22 touchdowns over his first two seasons. That was the most by any receiver in his first two years since Beckham, who was amazing during those years. And out of
Starting point is 00:22:33 those 28 red zone targets last year, actually over the past two years, 27 targets in the end zone alone. So if you look at chase and say, well, no one can really match up against a man coverage one-on-one teams have tried to, So they've abandoned that and they've tried to shift coverage over there, but they've abandoned that because then it leaves T Higgins open. There's a good chance that he's going to have a, that he's going to be able to kind of repeat what he's been doing as far as touchdowns, um, this season. So he also had, uh, five top five wide receiver finishes. I just looked at. And so if you get a bigger role in the red zone here, that for me is the case over Jefferson, I would say. Just the possibility of more touchdowns and the possibility of there's no real way to defend him versus, you know, we have T. Higgins as a realized great receiver.
Starting point is 00:23:16 Jordan Addison, more of a projection, especially in year one. But both of those guys I would have over any running back. All right. I'm just going to go ahead and say it. Sorry in advance. I know I'm ruining the number one pick for everyone, but Justin Jefferson is bust proof. I mean,
Starting point is 00:23:33 I really cannot, I just cannot think of what could go wrong other than injury. Chase, on the other hand, do you feel that way? Cause I, I think if you take a guy second overall and he performs like a second rounder, let's say,
Starting point is 00:23:47 like wide receiver five or six, I would consider that a bust. I know a lot of people would take issue with that and be like, you're only a bust. But how would he finish that far down? What would be the case? Well, he was wide receiver four per game and non-PPR number three per game and full PPR.
Starting point is 00:24:02 Higgins, Higgins is the case. I think when you look at, I've said this before, when you look at the very best receivers in fantasy, especially, particularly the ones that finish number one, they are usually total target hogs, clearly better than every other receiver on their team. They usually don't have a T. Higgins on their team. So that would be something that holds down his ceiling a little bit.
Starting point is 00:24:27 And I think you look at Jamar Chase's, I mean this, I don't really care about this. I love Chase, but his 17 game pace was 1,482 yards. Justin Jefferson was over 1800 yards. It wasn't even close. So I don't know.
Starting point is 00:24:42 Jamie, how do you feel about this? They're different players. Oh yeah. Go ahead, Jamie. Well, yeah. Go ahead, Jamie, Jamie. I mean, in terms of Jefferson being bus proof,
Starting point is 00:24:50 I think, you know, if you're drafting a number one, you're thinking that's as close to possible as any player, because why else would you do that, knowing the talent? But, we saw what happened to Cup last year when Stafford got hurt. What would happen to Jefferson if Kirk Cousins goes down?
Starting point is 00:25:06 Is there enough trust in the quarterback situation there in Minnesota to say that he's still going to be that type of player? I know we kind of crap on Kirk Cousins a lot throughout his career, but he's still been very good for a lot of his fantasy receivers from Stephon Diggs to Adam Thielen to now Jefferson. So there's one scenario. And then the other one would be, why I think Heath is a little bit concerned, is that is Jordan Addison really that good to where he's going to take away
Starting point is 00:25:32 some semblance of production to the point where it's that much better than what Adam Thielen was doing. So I think there's two scenarios there that can maybe knock him down a few pegs aside from him getting hurt. So I don't think you ever want to put that necessarily, that moniker on somebody. I know. It's scary. I get it.
Starting point is 00:25:52 Like anybody's quarterback could get hurt. I mean, if you look at what Tyreek Hill did with Skylar Thompson last year, he was absolutely terrible. He was really good with Teddy Bridgewater. But, you know, anyone's quarterback could get hurt. Any player could get hurt. But if there are no injuries, Jefferson feels super safe. Chase is great.
Starting point is 00:26:09 No argument there. So then you get to, all right, so who's number three? And by the way, I'm certainly not saying that these need to be the one and two for you guys or for anybody listening or watching right now. But that is what the consensus rankings are. I think you're going to see that a lot. Jefferson and then Chase. And then McCaffrey, three. And then Kelsey, four.
Starting point is 00:26:29 And Eckler, five. And Cup, six. Cup's 30. Eckler's 28. Kelsey's, what, going to be 34? McCaffrey, we've already talked about some of the downside with him. He's also 27. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:26:47 And, you know, there's just some uncertainty, I guess, with his role. But I – all right, you know, look, I'm just trying to spice this show up. I guess I'll just throw in another hot take. I don't think he's my RB1 anymore. I think I'm Eckler. I think I'm on Eckler. I don't hate that. I mean, look, I get it. He was, he was amazing, you know,
Starting point is 00:27:08 and, you know, Dan alluded to this, you know, the offense is going to change a little bit, but you know, we, we saw in a Kellen Moore offense, 12 rushing touchdowns from Zeke. I don't remember exactly how many Pollard scored. We know that Eckler has been what, 28 touchdowns over the last two seasons, 20 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons. He's clearly proven to be, you know, if you want to consider McAfee seasons. He's clearly proven to be, you know, if you want to consider McAfee the best pass catching back, he's 1A, you know, in terms of what Eckler's able to do. And some people may think Eckler's better at this point.
Starting point is 00:27:33 You know, so in an up-tempo offense that's going to be with a quarterback that's definitely, I think, going to bounce back and still on the rise in Justin Herbert, there's a lot to love about Austin Eckler and still now motivated because he didn't get exactly the contract that he wants. Plus he's entering a free agent year. So that 1.75 million in incentives, you know, that, that little carrot that's dangling out there could lead to something bigger if a team wants to, you know, prioritize paying him in 2024. So there's a lot to love about Eckler. There's no reason to necessarily dispute that tremendously. And then look, if you
Starting point is 00:28:02 want to even take it a step further, you take the shiny new toy and Bijan Robinson, you know, necessarily dispute that tremendously. And then look, if you want to even take it a step further, you take the shiny new toy and be John Robinson. You know, it's something that I've considered, you know, especially after, you know, you, you, you've been talking about this a lot and, you know, I wrote about Mitchell as a Elijah Mitchell as a sleeper, you know, when you dive into the numbers, like you said, you know, what, what he's done to McCaffrey and the potential of what San Francisco's offense is, you know, in Carolina, they needed McCaffrey to be Superman.
Starting point is 00:28:24 San Francisco does not need that. They can win games in so many different ways. Defensively, running the ball with somebody else besides McCaffrey, their passing game obviously is very successful. He doesn't necessarily have to be that guy for 17 games that they can go a different direction, especially if he's a little bit banged up at some point. You don't have to necessarily buy into McCaffrey as the number one guy.
Starting point is 00:28:44 That being said, Mitchell missed a lot of time last year. He's been banged up throughout some point. So, you know, you don't have to necessarily buy into McCaffrey as the number one guy. And that being said, Mitchell missed a lot of time last year. He's been banged up throughout his career. And what McCaffrey did without Mitchell and what McCaffrey's been, especially behind that offensive line, you know, it's pretty enticing to say what he can still give you. So for me, he's still third, but I wouldn't argue somebody taking Eckler or even Bison ahead of him. What let me ask you is if Trey Lance were the quarterback, where would you rank Christian McCaffrey?
Starting point is 00:29:07 Same spot. Okay. And I just want to say, like 67 carries for McCaffrey, 62 for Mitchell in the six games they played together, including the playoffs. There were a lot of blowouts. There were maybe four blowouts in that stretch.
Starting point is 00:29:21 So I really don't think I saw a lot of garbage time for Elijah Mitchell. I talked about this on Twitter. I talked about this on a previous podcast. But there was like Jordan Mason was the garbage time guy. However, in the first half of those games, just quarters one and two of those six games, McCaffrey had 37 carries and Mitchell had 17 carries. That was a much bigger split. Still, I don't think you're going to see that kind of split with Eckler and whoever's behind him, or Barkley, or Taylor.
Starting point is 00:29:50 Am I missing someone? Bijan, we don't know. Okay, anyway, Kelsey. Let's talk about Kelsey before we take a break, and then we'll look at the bottom six, well, seven through 12 in the consensus here. Jamie, how did you determine Kelsey as number four? You just see what he's been able to accomplish.
Starting point is 00:30:09 You know, I know the age is something you got to take into account. And, you know, he did have some lulls in the regular season last year, especially in the early middle part of the season until, you know, they kicked into their playoff run. And then he started to look like, you know, Superman again. Clearly teams are going to, you know, focus as much as they can on taking him away.
Starting point is 00:30:28 Like Cooper Cup, you just marvel at how often he's able to get open, how often they scheme him to get open. He's just such a difference maker at the thinnest position. So the hard part when you draft Travis Kelsey, and I think, Dan, you alluded to this on a recent show, is it doesn't feel good when you look at your team after the draft. Minute drafts over, you're like, oh, God. It's like I lost this running back or I lost this wide receiver or my quarterback stinks.
Starting point is 00:30:57 But then once you get into the season and you're five-point advantage, ten-point advantage, whatever the difference is on your opposing tight end, and knowing what this guy is and just the fact that you don't have to chase the position and you see people, you know, picking up Chigokonko here or David Njoku there, or even, you know, step further, Jawan Johnson and Tyler Higbee and, you know, chasing Greg Doltrich and all those guys, it just makes you so confident. And, and, and I, you know, happy that you have, you know, this, this monster on your team. And so, I think it's again, you've got to be bold enough to
Starting point is 00:31:28 pull the trigger that early in the first round. But when you look at the end of the season, I know for me, the last several years, I'm sure many people, you're probably always in the playoffs with Travis Kelsey, and you build a smart team, and you have the ability to win a championship because he's that good. You're a big Kelsey guy,
Starting point is 00:31:44 Dan. When's the earliest that it's justifiable to take Travis Kelsey? And if you would let me, if you indulge here, I want to tell you where he's finished in PPR at running back. If he had been a running back over the last six seasons, he would have finished 11th, 9th, 13th, 6th, 10th, and 5th. And running back.
Starting point is 00:32:06 Per game, per game. So that's top six per game in two of the last three seasons. The other four seasons, he's been closer to 12th. Did you mean at wide receiver, Adam? No, I'm going to do wide receiver as well. Oh, wow. At wide receiver per game, he would have been 10th, 9th, 9th, 3rd, 11th, and 7th.
Starting point is 00:32:22 So his best two seasons have been two of his three most recent seasons. And he's been like wide receiver three, wide receiver seven, RB six, RB five. That's what you're getting from Kelsey. When's the earliest you could justify taking him, Dan? I think the earliest you can justify taking him is honestly third overall. I wouldn't, I'd probably take him fifth overall,
Starting point is 00:32:40 but I think it's justifiable. You just broke down how he finished against running backs and wide receivers. It's one of like the 12 best players in the NFL. I'm sorry. In fantasy football, that doesn't even like take into account the weekly advantage you get from him at tight end. Cause you don't have to play him at wide receiver or running back. You're playing him at tight end. As Jamie said, as people chase the Greg Dolchich two touchdown week, and then he puts together three points for you the next week, you're racking up points week after after week he hasn't had a thousand under thousand yards in seven years he's averaged eight touchdowns or more in set the last seven years he hasn't missed a game except for covet in nine years
Starting point is 00:33:13 i know he's older now at 34 but am i really as concerned about him from an injury risk profile versus like a 27 year old saquon barkley who's at a torn acl and all those are like odell beckham like there are bigger injury risks in my opinion, despite these players being younger. And last year, everyone talks about how big of an edge he had over the tight end to Adam. I think he scored 5.3 points more than the tight end to Hawkinson. Yeah, that's worth something. But how about how much he scores over the tight end 12 or the tight end 11 or the tight end 10 or all these other guys you're cycling in week in week out when you don't have Travis Kelsey on your roster and you don't have a Hawkinson or whoever else that's the advantage right there as I always say like in fantasy I'm looking to fantasy to me as a
Starting point is 00:33:54 matchups game part of my strategy is to either get Kelsey and try to win the weekly advantage at tight end or win the flex like in PPR full PPR leagues I'm trying to get my flex drafted often before my RB2 often before my RB two, sometimes before my RB one, because it's worth the same. But when you have an advantage like Kelsey, it gives, it gives you such an edge on a weekly basis. So I think you can draft them as soon as three overall on a PPR league. Um, but I probably wouldn't take him till fifth. Uh, yeah, I'm sorry. It was actually Kittle who's PPR tight end two per game, not Hawkinson. Okay, let's take a break.
Starting point is 00:34:29 When we come back, we'll talk about 7 through 12 in the consensus rankings. So far, we've got Jefferson, Chase, McCaffrey, Kelsey, Eckler, and Cooper Cup. And we will talk about Tyreek Hill and the rest of them when we come back on Fantasy Football today. All right, welcome back. 7 through 12 in our PPR consensus rankings right now. And number 7 is Tyreek Hill. Number 8 is Bijan Robinson.
Starting point is 00:34:54 So actually, after Tyreek Hill, you get three straight running backs. Bijan, Barkley, Taylor, Stefan Diggs, 11, and CeeDee Lamb, 12. Pollard no Jacobs no Devante Adams no Derek Henry AJ Brown Amonra St. Brown those are all going to be on tomorrow's show again 7 through 12 in the PPR consensus rankings are Tyreek Hill Bijan Robinson Saquon Barkley Jonathan Taylor Stefan Diggs and CeeDee Lamb Jamie this is pretty close to what you have. You have Pollard in there. You have Lamb 13th, so just outside. Anything you want to... What jumps out at you when you look at 7-12?
Starting point is 00:35:32 I think one of the toughest decisions people are going to have if you're going to go running back is Taylor versus Barkley at this point. Let's assume that Barkley's contract situation is settled early in camp, if not the start of camp, but by week one because a lot of drafts happen quickly before the first game of the season. Then you're looking at, okay, what does Barclay give you now two years in Brian D'Abel's system,
Starting point is 00:35:55 three years removed from the ACL tear? Is he still going to be this elite-level prospect? I think we all hope that's going to be the case versus what Taylor was prior to last year, what he could be with Anthony Richardson in this new offense and that potential upside. So I struggle with those two. I'm sure a lot of people do as well. For me, I think I'm going to lean a little bit towards youth here with Taylor
Starting point is 00:36:15 because he's a little bit younger. I think the fact that he will have the benefit of a running quarterback even more so than what Daniel Jones is, I think we can all agree on that, that Anthony Richardson is a better runner than Daniel Jones. I think that will help open some rushing lanes, and I think he's going to be a bigger factor in the passing. I think it's just based on what this team looks like,
Starting point is 00:36:30 and I think giving Anthony Richardson some easy opportunities. The design plays will have to be what carries him because I think when the play breaks down, he's not going to look to throw. He's going to look to run. But I do think that Taylor may see a spike in receptions, especially with the guys that are behind him that aren't exactly very inspiring right now. So I like Taylor slightly ahead of Barkley, but that
Starting point is 00:36:48 could change once Barkley's contract situation is resolved and I feel a little bit better about Barkley once we get closer to the season. Did you say Schneier? That's what I said. I said Schneier. I didn't know if you said okay or Schneier. He said flush. I'm probably in the same boat as Jamie here.
Starting point is 00:37:06 My biggest concern right now, though, with Jonathan Taylor is, do we definitely get that receiving volume that we saw start to uptick in his career starting two seasons ago and really carrying over a little bit toward last year with Anthony Richardson, or are some of those plays undesigned runs, scrambles, as you would call them? Because a lot of what made Barkley so successful last year was when the giants did operate out of the shotgun or in any passing forward way, Barkley was one of the kind of safety reads, right? He'll run a lot of flare routes out to the flat. And if you don't like what you see Jones, just throw the ball out there. Is that going to be the case with Taylor
Starting point is 00:37:38 in this offense? It wasn't necessarily the case with Shane Steichen in Philadelphia. When he ran that offense last year, there wasn't a lot of those flare routes and those outlet passes for the running backs. So that concerns me. And the second concern for Taylor and the reason I probably have slight edge for Barkley right now would just be the direction of the Colts offensive line. I just don't like the direction it's heading in. They didn't make a major investment in it this year that I thought made would make me feel better about it. And that concerns me a little bit too. Taylor does have age on his side. They're both explosive.
Starting point is 00:38:06 They actually had very similar combine testing. They're similar athletes, I would say. At least Barkley from what Barkley showed last year. Hopefully he can keep that up. But the passing game role concerns me a little bit, like I said. And then the offensive line is also a big issue for me. Okay, I have some polls up here on YouTube and on Twitter. On YouTube right now, we only have 13 votes just came up,
Starting point is 00:38:26 but Barkley 54%, Taylor 46%. On Twitter, 50-50 on 14 votes. So, again, we're brand new here. That will be a tough call. And, you know, let me – so I already told you – well, Tyreek Hill is ahead of them in the consensus rankings. Do you guys agree with taking Tyreek ahead of Barkley and Taylor? Yeah, I haven't missed my wide receiver three, so definitely.
Starting point is 00:38:50 Yes. He is also ahead of Bijan Robinson. Who would you guys take, Bijan or Tyreek Hill? Well, then it gets fun. I have Bijan. I think I'm going to be with Jamie on this one. I saw Jamie. I saw where he had him ranked, and then I took him, I think,
Starting point is 00:39:07 at fifth overall in one of our recent mocks over these two, and I actually took him over Eckler in that. It's going to be hard to keep me off the Bijan Robinson train right now. I just see so many things that are pointing in the right direction there, most specifically how well Atlanta ran the ball last year. And when watching them on the game film, I mean, they do so many things from a schematic standpoint in the run game that are translatable to this year and And I don't think we'll fall off. I think they really run one of the best and most diverse run games. And Chris Lindstrom is one of the best blocking
Starting point is 00:39:32 guards in NFL. He's what Quinton Nelson was for Jonathan Taylor two years ago. I don't know if Quinton Nelson can still get back to that level. So I just feel like Bijan Robinson has more upside than both those players. As far as how Robinson versus Hill, that one's a little closer for me just because I'm really high on Tyreek. Yeah. Looking at rookie running backs, uh, Najee Harris was a top four running back in 2021. Jonathan Taylor was,
Starting point is 00:39:54 uh, top six in 2020. And, you know, he got going really late. Like his last six games, he was based, was basically made his season.
Starting point is 00:40:03 Saquon Barkley was top two. Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara were top four back in 2017. Zeke was top two in 2016. Those were the best ones in recent memory. And last year, you know, you didn't have any rookie running back finish in the top five. I don't know exactly where Ken Walker finished, but once Ken Walker became the starter, once Brees Hall got going, those guys were pretty damn good, but their
Starting point is 00:40:32 end of season numbers weren't, you know, they weren't the week one starters, and then obviously Brees Hall got hurt. So yeah, anyway, the point is, rookie running backs come in, and they could be the number one running back, they could be the number two running back in fantasy, it's not a surprise. Yeah, I want to amend something because i we didn't get a chance to talk about this so when we did the bold predictions and i said that bijan would be number one the best rookie running back ever yeah so and i said dickerson dickerson actually was non-ppr in 83 saquon has the best rookie season ever in ppr really in 2018 yeah i
Starting point is 00:41:03 was surprised by that. I think he had like 94 catches. It was crazy. He had 91 catches that season. Yeah, Eli Manning was just checking down so often at that point. Yeah, it was pretty phenomenal. So, Bijon's got a lot of work to do. You know, Dickerson in that season had 390 carries, which is a rookie record.
Starting point is 00:41:22 That's an 83. And he ran for over 1,800 yards. 390. And Barkley, obviously, in is a rookie record. That's an 83. And he ran for over 1800 yards. Um, and, and Barkley, obviously in 2018, um, 91 catches, you know, that's, that's a lot, you know, on top of 2000 total yards. So for Bijan to get there, it's, it's going to take a lot of work, but like you said, Adam, it doesn't necessarily have to be number one or number two. He can still be top five. And I think that's what you're, you're hoping for. If you're drafting him in the first round, again, a lot of carries available. Uh, you can see in our magazine, that's what you're hoping for if you're drafting him in the first round. Again, a lot of carries available.
Starting point is 00:41:45 You can see in our magazine, that's our cover story, is Bijan Robinson. And the tricky thing will be is how much will Arthur Smith just completely lean on him? Because they do like, he does like, I spoke to Arthur Smith, he does like very much still Tyler Algier and still Cordero Patterson. They're going to differentiate how they use those two guys now because of bijan but um it's going to be a lot of fun to see how this all gets chopped up looking at their personnel though jamie and adam i'm curious if they might be the outlier team that actually does use more pony package and 21 personnel meaning two running backs on the field at the same time because if you look at that wide receiver group it's like do they have an edge if they have algier and bijan robinson on the field at the same time. Cause if you look at that wide receiver group, it's like, do they have an edge?
Starting point is 00:42:25 If they have Algier and Bajon Robinson on the field, you have Robinson split out wide, haven't come in motion pre-snap or the opposite Cordell Patterson out wide with Bajon Robinson in the backfield. But looking at their personnel, it feels like this is a team that could use that package more than any team, which would obviously benefit Bajon as well. I think if they do that,
Starting point is 00:42:43 it's probably with Patterson and one of the other two. Although, and you know, we always get excited about this, which never materializes. You've seen a lot of mini camp footage of Bijan with the wide receiver group. Lined up. Yeah. You know, Steve Sarkeesian said it was in a Peter King article before the draft that he thought, and the quote was, he said, I'll get it out. He said, I know I made a lot of my receivers mad,
Starting point is 00:43:12 but he has the best hands of anybody on the team. And so he averaged 16.5 yards per reception. He had a significant amount of receptions during his career there. So he could be a 50-c catch guy if they decide to do it. And if that happens on top of, let's say, you know, 280 carries, it's going to be a pretty impressive season. If he gets somewhere close to 350 total touches, that's going to make him a monster.
Starting point is 00:43:38 And by the way, all the accolades Jamie just mentioned about Bijan as a receiver at Texas, it wasn't just him running flare routes and screens. He was running a really diverse route tree, including arrow routes, extra like things that you would see him lined up against linebacker and be like, that's McCaffrey esque. And so just something else to keep note. This is not your typical great prospect. This is somebody who also has a receiving profile. That's very diverse and different than even guys like Barkley and Taylor and Eckler who kind of catch more like screens and flares. Just to catch up on the Barkley versus Taylor poll, on Twitter, 301 votes.
Starting point is 00:44:09 Barkley's at 60%, almost 61%. And on YouTube, Barkley's at 56% on 39 votes. A little surprised by that. I think I'm on Barkley too. Just a little uncertainty about the Anthony Richardson factor and what that will mean. It typically means fewer catches. And I know Daniel Jones is mobile, but it's just different.
Starting point is 00:44:31 It's just different. I don't have a ton of faith in Richardson to be that competent this year, I guess, as a quarterback. So that's kind of why I'm a barter. The hope would be is that that's what Shane Steichen does to make him comfortable is a lot of short throws. That's why I think a lot of people like Josh Downs. It's just a lot of easy routes, easy yards.
Starting point is 00:44:53 And if you have somebody that can do it, and I think Taylor is underrated in what he can do as a pass catcher, that's such a benefit to your offense if, in fact, they do import. So it's a matter of Richardson being able to do it. It's a matter of Steichen allowing him to's a matter of Richardson being able to do it's a matter of you know stiking you know allowing him to do it and then you know Taylor being you know able to do it and I will say one thing you know just even though I said I was Taylor over Barkley uh Taylor still dealing with his ankle injury you know and and the fact that he's not ready yet you know something to keep an eye on if he's still limited in training camp it's easy to go Barkley
Starting point is 00:45:18 but at least he's signed he does have that over Saquon Barkley he's on a a roster. So that actually, you know, we talk about Taylor, we talk about Barkley, and I think it's kind of easy to poke holes in them. Obviously, we know how good they can be. They both have RB1 seasons. But why not just take Stefan Diggs? Or CeeDee Lamb is the last guy in this round. But I, you know, I think I can make an easier case for Diggs.
Starting point is 00:45:42 He just was a lot better than CeeDee Lamb last year. And how about this? I mean, Diggs, before the Josh Allen injury, he was practically Justin Jefferson. It was eight games, and he was on pace for 100. Actually, he was better. 128 catches, 1,821 yards, and 15 touchdowns on 176 targets before the Josh Allen elbow injury,
Starting point is 00:46:07 basically including the game in which Allen got hurt, which was that second-to-last pass of the game against the Jets. So after that, much, much worse. But I don't know. I mean, I gave you the Tyreek Hill stats with Tua, and Tyreek Hill in the consensus rankings is ahead of Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley, but Stefan Diggs isn't. Dan, what do you make of that? Because I could make an easy case
Starting point is 00:46:32 that Stefan Diggs should be going before basically any running back that you have a lot of questions about. I actually think Stefan Diggs is almost busproof. I don't hate this take at all. Especially, what? Bus-proof. I don't mean he doesn't have the ceiling that Jefferson does. I'm not saying to take a second. What could go wrong for Diggs? I mean, unless Josh Allen doesn't have that great view. He missed a free throw in his last 90.
Starting point is 00:46:57 But I agree with you. The consistency factor for Diggs is definitely what stands out. I mean, that's now three seasons in a row where he's at at least triple or is that triple digit receptions which is crazy at least eight touchdowns and over 1200 yards he was wire receiver six uh per game last season nine of 17 weeks he was a top 10 receiver in ppr there's a chance for squeaky wheel gets greased here i think honestly he's disgruntled about his role in the offense. One way to get him happier, give him more targets, feed him more. And he's still really good from an effective standpoint. You think he was third best in the NFL in yards per outrun.
Starting point is 00:47:32 Again, that's a stat I really like. Jacobs really, Jake Gibson did a good job explaining why it's been very predictable as far as if these receivers are still producing at a high level. So he's also, along with those receptions, had at least 154 targets. So the volume, this is the recipe for consistency and fantasy volume, a red zone role. You know, can you still win as a route runner? The only thing I would say that would maybe go against digs is that he's going to be 30 years old this season. And obviously age is a factor at some point for wide receivers. We we've seen some receivers do better in this range than kind of running
Starting point is 00:48:04 backs as they get older in the 27, 28 range, but it's something to consider. But other than that, the consistency is there. So I don't really, I'm kind of with you, Adam. I don't hate the idea of taking a swing on a digs instead of one of these running backs with the idea of you can lose your fantasy season in round one, but it by swinging for the fences, but with a player like digs, a consistent player, maybe you're not losing, you know, you're, you're giving yourself a nice, consistent option there in round one. Yeah. I think the biggest argument for the running backs over digs is that you're probably going to like your round two wide receivers, but then you're around two running backs, you know, you're somebody like Adams or, or lamb could fall to you
Starting point is 00:48:44 in round two, if you're picking ninth or 10th in round one, and then you don't want to take maybe. No. Can I ask you guys this question? Cause you've both done them all with me from the mocks we've done, Jamie and Adam, don't you guys kind of feel this year more than, than the previous years in that rounds? Let's say, let's get out around two. Let's say the rounds three through five range. There's more intriguing options at running back than there have been in recent years. And there's more intriguing options at running back than there have been in recent years and there's fewer intriguing options at receiver that's how i've felt in every mock we've done have you guys had that feeling i i think definitely yes because we're seeing receivers get pushed up you know i mean it's it's not that that hasn't necessarily
Starting point is 00:49:17 been the case but it feels like it's over exaggerated now and so you know it's like once you get past those for me i think and and i don't know if you guys agree's like once you get past those, for me, I think, and I don't know if you guys agree, it's once you get past basically T. Higgins and Devontae Smith, which typically go in the beginning part of the third round. If you want to throw Chris Olave in there as well, I have no problem with that. You know, but it's how much do you trust Keenan Allen at his age? How much do you trust Calvin Ridley coming back from, you know, a year and a half off? How much do you trust Christian Watson at this point? Where's DeAndre Hopkins playing?
Starting point is 00:49:45 You know, all these receivers that are in that group, Amari Cooper. So there's a lot of, okay, it's easy to pivot to potentially Aaron Jones still there, Najee Harris still there, Joe Mixon. The situation is that J.K. Dobbins, all those guys that are going to be there in round three. Heath would say Miles Sanders, Damian Pierce, these guys that are you know, are going to be there in round three, you know, Heath would say, Miles Sanders, you know, Damian Pierce, you know, these guys that are, you know, some question marks, but again, you know, you start to see the, still the potential upside. So yeah, I think it's not a bad move and that's why we're going to see quarterbacks, you know, you know, if they're not drafted higher in most, you know, non-analyst leagues, you know, they're going to push those
Starting point is 00:50:18 guys down, but you know, it's easy to pivot to those guys, which is why we are in the industry. I think what you've never seen before, seen before, not just taking maybe one quarterback. You're taking as many as four to six or four to five. I don't know if Herbert's getting pushed up that high yet, but with Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields joining Joe Burrow as the second trio, it's going to be fascinating to see how this all unfolds. But yeah, it's going to make the dead zone, I think,
Starting point is 00:50:44 maybe either pushed up or pushed down, depending on if those running backs do go in round three. Yeah, I agree with the part about the wide receivers. I'm not sure I agree about the running backs being more interesting than they typically are in rounds four. I don't know what round specifically we're talking about, but I do think the running backs right now are really interesting in round six and later where you
Starting point is 00:51:06 could be getting deandre swift um you know instead of just guessing i might as well just look at some like i'm looking at nfc uh adp deandre swift cam acres miles sanders going 65th uh damian pierce rashad white these guys are really falling in drafts. James Conner, 77th overall. Isaiah Pacheco, 80th. Javante Williams, David Montgomery in the 80s. I mean, I can't believe some of that value. Have more guaranteed paths toward volume than a lot of these trendy receivers were taking over them in that range, right? Like, taking receivers who we need things to fall into place for them to get the target volume necessary for them to be anything more as good as their talent suggested. Meanwhile,
Starting point is 00:51:49 you mentioned Rashad White, like he's almost a lock for target. I mean, sorry for volume. Yeah. Also, I think you remember last year was such a bad year for quarterback play. Terrible year for wide receivers. Yeah. So the guys that were going around three through five last year, I wanted pretty much all of them this year. I probably won't feel the same, but I also don't really feel all that comfortable talking about ADP right now. I just don't know what to make of it. I mean, on NFC, which is like high stakes leagues, but a lot of best ball, Derek Henry and Josh Jacobs are third round picks. And Tony Pollard is 23rd. I don't know that I can tell you that if you take, you know, Jefferson and Chase with your first two picks, that you're going to be able to go Jefferson, Pollard, Henry, or Jefferson, Jacobs, Henry.
Starting point is 00:52:38 I don't think I can give you that advice right now. So I just don't know. That'd be pretty cool, though. Yeah. All right, Jamie, tell me about CeeDee Lamb. You have him 13th, but he's 12th in the consensus rankings. Do you think he deserves to be a pick on the swing? Obviously, that's ahead of Devontae Adams, ahead of Henry and Chubb,
Starting point is 00:52:56 et cetera. CeeDee Lamb, we'll end with him. I think he's going to be a little polarizing just from the standpoint of as more people start to draft and you start to look at some of the comments that came out of you know mike mccarthy's mouth earlier this offseason about how he wants to run the ball more that's going to scare some people you know and i get it and then you see the addition of brandon cooks and and maybe the the positive reports about michael gallup and you say okay are the targets going to be there for him and i get that as well but i think what
Starting point is 00:53:22 we've seen from him everything sets up for him to be a superstar. Will he ever get to Justin Jefferson Heights? Probably not, but can he be in that next tier? I think so, and he sort of proved that last year. So he is an alpha. He is somebody that's worth taking in the end of the first round. I don't buy what Mike McCarthy said because I was there the day afterwards when he tried to sort of backtrack off of it and said privately and publicly that what the, the, the, we're going to run the ball more and, and, you know, sort of taking a shot at Kellen Moore about lighting up the scoreboard.
Starting point is 00:53:54 I think he sort of meant that we're just not going to be as run as many plays and, and, and be as uptempo in offense, but they're still going to throw the ball quite a bit. And so Brandon Cook's at 31, and Michael Gallup, who's been good but never really somebody that's dominated targets, and their tight end situation I think getting worse, and maybe even their running back situation getting worse, as much as we love Tony Pollard, but the group as a whole is not exactly the best group. So I think CeeDee Lamb's target should still be in the top 10, maybe not the top 5 anymore, but still in the top 10.
Starting point is 00:54:26 I still love his potential. I still think he's got the chance to be a top 5 wide receiver. And so everything to me still screams, take him at the back end of the first round or early part of the second round. And yeah, I'll give you just some numbers real quick. He played 12 games with Dak Prescott. Lamb was on pace for 108 catches, 1,387 yards, and 10 touchdowns on only 152 targets.
Starting point is 00:54:49 And with Cooper Rush, he was on pace for 167 targets, so 15 more targets. This is five games, three fewer catches, and almost 100 fewer yards, and three fewer touchdowns. So his overall number's not as good as what his pace was with just Dak Prescott in the 12 games that Prescott played. The Cooper Rush dragged CeeDee Lamb down a little bit, but his numbers were not nearly as good as the other wide receivers who were going in the first round.
Starting point is 00:55:18 Just his 17-game pace or the per-game numbers, Jefferson Chase Chase, Cup, Tyreek Hill, and Stefan Diggs. And Dallas was, of all of those teams, well, actually not the Rams, but yeah, actually that's interesting. So that's six wide receivers in the first round. Dallas had the second fewest pass attempts. The Rams had the fewest. Dallas and then the other teams were more pass heavy. Well, let's read some emails to finish off our show.
Starting point is 00:55:46 This is something that I do to Heath that he doesn't like that I'm going to do to you guys now. I'm going to read emails. Why did he not like it? Well, because I didn't put the emails in the notes and I didn't think we'd have time for them. So I'm going to do that now. Did you say I never do that? I almost
Starting point is 00:56:01 always do that actually is what you meant to say. He did do it. All right, so let's just pick some at random here. How about a grade the trade? All right, I took over a terrible Dynasty team this offseason, never finished higher than 11th place. I made a couple of trades in three years. I made a couple of trades, and I'd love to get your input.
Starting point is 00:56:24 It's 1QB League, 12 teams, half PPR. I traded pick 102, Rashad White, and a... Oh, God. I do not like this trade, I don't think. All right, 102, Rashad White, and a 2024 second
Starting point is 00:56:39 round pick for 111, Cam Akers, Najee Harris, and a 2024 first round pick, which will likely be a mid round pick. And it's not terrible, I guess, but. It's not terrible.
Starting point is 00:56:57 It's not ideal either. First of all, your second round pick that you traded is likely to be what, 201, 202. You finished 11th in three straight years. I guess you're acquiring Najee. So it's kind of playing for now. But it is, I mean, in a one QB league, that 102 is a little less valuable after Bijan Robinson, I would say.
Starting point is 00:57:15 I mean, what are you going to take Gibbs? You're going to take JSN. You could take Anthony Richardson, I guess, but depends on your QB situation. So I don't hate that side of it, but I just don't have too much faith in what you got back. I mean, Cam Akers, to me,
Starting point is 00:57:28 maybe has a year left of fantasy relevance, maybe less. I'm not a big believer in his talent. So you're banking on Najee Harris here. Also, that contract's running out in Pittsburgh. I don't know if they'll resign him. They didn't resign Connor when his contract ran out. So just seems like some risky assets you're getting back at a position
Starting point is 00:57:43 I don't like to invest in here. And you're giving up picks as a team that's rebuilding. Or draft capital, I should say. So that's never a great thing. So you're giving up Rashad White and 102. And a second round pick. And a second round next year. And a second round next year to get Cam Akers, Najee Harris.
Starting point is 00:58:02 111 and a late first next year. Not necessarily a late first. Mid first. Mid to late first. Yeah, Najee Harris. 1-11 and a late first next year. Not necessarily a late first. Mid first. Mid to late first. Yeah, I hate this. All right, Jamie, help John out with a keeper. It is PPR and a 1QB league, and he needs to keep Justin Fields, Dalvin Cook,
Starting point is 00:58:21 Brees Hall, or DeAndre Hopkins. No round penalty? No. Fields, Dalvin Cook, Brees Hall, or DeAndre Hopkins? No round penalty? No. Fields, Dalvin Cook, Brees Hall, and DeAndre Hopkins. I would keep Brees Hall, you know, just with the hope that he turns into what he was before he got hurt. Okay. And how about a Superflex question?
Starting point is 00:58:40 10-team Superflex. Oh, first he says, this is from Conrad. He says, dear Matt, Sean, Bobby, Daryl, and Jeremy. Matt, Sean, Bobby. No clue. Feels like Seahawks or something. Daryl. Yeah, I have no idea.
Starting point is 00:59:03 I'm in a 10-team super flex. We originally were eight 8 teams and quarterbacks would fall a bit more but because of higher replacement levels left last year that habit stuck with one QB in the first round with a large run starting end of the second through the third round my question is I'm a big believer this year on the
Starting point is 00:59:18 fields Lamar Herbert Lawrence range of quarterback but should I just take the top quarterback if there if that's there late in the first or the second quarterback in the second round for value? Or just wait for the top three to go and then go for my target quarterbacks? I think you should.
Starting point is 00:59:37 I'm sorry, go ahead. That was a little wordy there. It was confusing, but I think the takeaway for me is what you saw last year in your league, the trend of quarterbacks being moved up. So, so much is only going to increase this year. And it's going to get greater as people understood and saw the difference of how much quarterbacks matter in a super flex 10 team league. So I would take one with your first round pick. I would probably consider taking one personally with your second round pick. I think
Starting point is 01:00:02 if you wait until it comes all the way back to you at the end of the third round, you might be past your Lawrence tier. You might be getting nothing out of that. And so it's, it's too big of a risk for me. I'm definitely taking quarterback. And like Dan said, you know, you might consider it too. We had a startup super flex dynasty mock draft on yesterday's show. And so it's not obviously apples to apples, but you know, still it's a super flex draft,
Starting point is 01:00:25 and we had the first six picks, I believe, were quarterbacks, if I'm not mistaken, Dan, and what, eight went in the first round? Yep. So that just goes to show you how much you should be prioritizing that position, and you're still going to get great players in round two if you don't want to take back-to-back quarterbacks,
Starting point is 01:00:41 and even rounds three through five will still be great players because all those quarterbacks will get pushed up. I think I'm I don't love the strategy of taking a quarterback with my first two picks in a 12 team super flex. I feel like a little more open to it in 10 team. I don't know how you guys feel about that.
Starting point is 01:00:58 Because obviously you can do better at your other positions. I'm even more concerned in a 12 team. But in a 12 team league, you're going to have a harder time filling out running back, wide receiver, and tight end. In a 10 team league. Personally not worried about it. In a 12 team league quarterback, if there's no rule,
Starting point is 01:01:12 especially on how many quarterbacks you can roster, it is desperation time in a 12 team league at quarterback. I'm not saying you take one in the 10th round. I'm just saying I don't want my first two picks necessarily. I think it matters where you pick. We saw in the draft yesterday, I think it matters where you pick, you know, like we, we saw in the draft yesterday, again, it's not really comparable, but Jacob Gibbs, for example,
Starting point is 01:01:30 passed on a quarterback with his first two picks and he, you know, he took a, he took CD lamb and Bijan Robinson, you know, so just to give you an example of the caliber of players that felt to him after eight quarterbacks were off the board again, dynasty league being what it is. But when he came back in rounds three and four, he also passed on quarterbacks, right?
Starting point is 01:01:46 Not that he did that. Right. Did he take one there? He did. He went, he did a back to back of picket and, uh, no,
Starting point is 01:01:52 but he took right. That's what he did. That's what he was looking at around three. Yeah. His first quarterback. Now he took CJ Stroud though. Cause it was dynasty, right?
Starting point is 01:02:02 Sure. So he took quarterback in round. But what was left there was a quarterback, but he could have taken like a Russell Wilson or, yeah, because it was Dynasty, right? Sure. Okay, he took quarterback in round three, but it was like 20th quarterback. But could he have taken like a Russell Wilson or... Yeah, maybe you can go Russell Wilson. But again, so you're talking 16th quarterback, 15th quarterback. You're not getting top tier guys. So to your point, Adam, yes.
Starting point is 01:02:16 Could he have taken one quarterback? He could have had Deshaun Watson there or Anthony Richardson. Those two guys were available at the end of the first round. Had he not taken a second quarterback back-to-back fix, he's looking at that pairing. All right. All right.
Starting point is 01:02:28 Thanks, everybody. Appreciate it. Tomorrow, 13 through 24 in the PPR consensus rankings with Heath and Chris. Friday, Heath and Dan for some Fantasy Jeopardy and backfield battles. And Saturday, if you haven't seen it on YouTube already, you will hear the Beyond the Box score episode
Starting point is 01:02:44 that we did yesterday with J.J. Zachariasen and Ben Gretsch and Jacob Gibbs. It was awesome. Alright, until tomorrow, thanks so much for that amazing donation. Stay tuned for more ways to donate to St. Jude and play some fantasy football with us. We'll talk to you later.

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