Fantasy Football Today - Rashod Bateman Profile: Breakout Coming? (07/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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Starting point is 00:00:23 Let's find out what the advanced stats have to say with Jacob Gibbs. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today in 5, your Sunday audio edition here. You can wait until the 80s to pick Rashad Bateman according to Fantasy Pro's average draft position in full PPR. What do you see from Rashad Bateman?

Starting point is 00:00:41 You already hyped up Gabriel Davis, a year three receiver. Now we need to know a year two receiver. What do you think about Rashad Bateman? You already hyped up Gabriel Davis at your three receiver. Now we need to know your two receiver. What do you think about Rashad Bateman this year? Yeah, Bateman and Davis are kind of similar in my mind in that they really struggled in year one and the rates that they posted really were discouraging. But I'm trying not to overreact to them.

Starting point is 00:01:00 I think that they both have shown some indications they're really good players and they could progress in larger roles here. Similar thing happened for Michael Bateman last year where he really had discouraging per route rates as a rookie and then really stepped into a larger role in year two and shook those off and was extremely productive for fantasy. So I'm hoping we see something similar from Bateman here. He was only targeted on 16% of his routes as a rookie, only averaged 1.26 yards per route run. And the list of rookie receivers who have run 400 or more routes and had rates that low is really discouraging. There really are only a handful of players who have gone on to be

Starting point is 00:01:33 productive. There are three examples that do give him hope. Gabriel Davis is on that. I wouldn't put him among this list yet because he hasn't proven it yet. But Michael Pittman, like we just mentioned, and the other two are Devante Adams and and deandre hopkins um those guys were really bad like worse than rashad bateman as rookies uh 14 target per hour and rate for adams as a rookie only 0.96 yards per hour run uh deandre hopkins 15 target per hour and rate 1.28 yards per hour run so almost identical to what we saw uh from rashad bateman um so there's hope but uh yeah baltimore's per outrun rate there bateman's per outrun rate as a rookie was just really bad and it wasn't just the slow start thing either a lot of people point towards the injury as

Starting point is 00:02:15 the reason he struggled last year he just he never picked it up uh he was actually worse after the buy he was targeting 14 percent of his routes and averaged under a yard per run um so what we saw last year was not good um but i do think what we've seen from in college um indicates that there could be a huge step forward here in year two okay well what what was that that we saw from rashad bateman in college yeah so um his yard per hour rate was only 2.06 in his first season that jumped all the way up to 3.5 in his next year and then he sustained that on small sample size in 2020 as well 3.5 um and then we saw him targeted on 28 percent of his routes and 27 percent of his routes the first two seasons and then with tyler johnson

Starting point is 00:02:55 moved on to the nfl and year three rashad bateman was targeted on 40 percent of his routes um and just for some context there drake london uh was targeting on 39% of his routes last year. That was the highest single season rate among players with at least 300 routes run over the past five seasons, 39%. Bateman's was 40%. He didn't run enough routes to qualify, but he was really, really fed in his third season. We just saw him continue to get better each year. I think that's something that could happen in year two and then going forward here in Baltimore. Right. And I think you're also making the point that it took the departure of the wide receiver one in college

Starting point is 00:03:30 for the routes to really, for the targets to really increase. And that's what we're seeing here. No Marquise Brown. That's why Rashad Bateman has such a great opportunity. What else can you tell us about Bateman? Anything that might lead you to think the breakout's coming? Yeah, so he really showed a unique ability to draw targets at a high rate while running a really deep route tree.

Starting point is 00:03:52 His average depth of target was only 8.8 yards as a rookie. But what we saw in college was that he was dominant downfield. On deep routes, he was one of the most efficient receivers among his class, which was a really, really good receiver class. And then in the five years of data I have available, he's one of just four NFL receivers with a career average depth of target above 13 yards who also sustained a target per route run rate above 30% in college. The other three, Preston Williams, so sad.

Starting point is 00:04:19 He could have been a stud. T. Higgins, of course, he is a stud. And then the other one, weirdly enough, is Bateman's teammate in Baltimore, tillin wallace i just tweeted about him i think uh he actually could be really good um but like it's really not something that's done hardly ever people who are targeted you know above 30 are generally running you know routes and that lead to an average death the target between 10 and 12 yards um so for him to do it on such a deep route tree shows that he could kind of step into this role that we saw from Marquise Brown, just dominating the area.

Starting point is 00:04:47 It's Marquise Brown eighth in area yards in 2021 eighth overall. I'm in areas of the past two seasons as well. 32% area yardage share last year. And so, yeah, we saw Babin run kind of a shorter route tree that isn't, I don't think the best way to use him. That's how Baltimore using those as a rookie.

Starting point is 00:05:03 And I think he could step into a more downfield oriented role in year two, which is really exciting. When he was on the field, let me find this real quick. When he's on the field in his final season at Minnesota, Bateman accounted for 47% of the air yards and 46% of the targets, which is higher than any receiver that I've evaluated over the past five seasons. So I think he has what it takes to be a true rider through one, especially an air yard hog. And that's just really exciting given what we've seen from Brown in the past. You know,

Starting point is 00:05:40 it's interesting the two guys that we profile this weekend that you profile Gabriel Davis and Rashad Bateman. I just, I don't really end up with them because people in my drafts like them so much that they're thinking about round five, maybe round six. But Gabriel Davis is a round seven pick, and Rashad Bateman is an eight, maybe round nine pick. God, that's so much better.

Starting point is 00:06:04 More like round eight for Rashad Bateman. I think that's so much better. Yeah. You know, more like round eight for Rashad Bateman. But I think that's when you take a chance. I mean, he's wide receiver 37 off the board, but people are getting so excited and I just think that the pass volume is just too low. I don't know what they're going to do, but if they go back to being really, really low pass volume offense,

Starting point is 00:06:18 they were 32nd two years in a row before last season when their running backs were hurt. Then he's, you know, he could be as good as Marquise Brown was, and Marquise Brown wasn't even a top 40 wide receiver on a per-game basis. So if they throw a lot, Bateman's going to be great. If they don't, then you shouldn't take him in the

Starting point is 00:06:33 sixth round, but you should take him in the eighth round. It's about upside to both of these guys. It's a speculative case that they could really explode. I think you're absolutely right. You shouldn't be reaching for them in round five, six, but if you can get them at their ADP, both of them are really exciting picks. All right, that is Jacob Gibbs. I think you're absolutely right. You shouldn't be reaching for them in round 5-6, but if you can get them at their ADP, both of them are really exciting picks. Alright, that is Jacob Gibbs. I am Adam

Starting point is 00:06:49 Azer. Thanks for watching and listening to Fantasy Football Today in 5. Talk to you tomorrow.

Fantasy Football Today - Rashod Bateman Profile: Breakout Coming? (07/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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