Fantasy Football Today - RB Reflections and 2021 Half PPR Mock Draft (01/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: January 19, 2021We start the show as Dave and Jamey reveal their favorite picks from our first half PPR mock draft of 2021 (1:33), including Deshaun Watson in round 6 … Reflecting on the running back position (5:05...), including fluke 2020 campaigns, bounce back candidates and 2021 breakouts. Who will be the best sophomore running back? Is James Robinson here to stay? … Half PPR mock draft review (28:53) running through the first two rounds and intriguing mid-round picks. Why did Dave pick Courtland Sutton over Marquise Brown? Full mock draft results: https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-january-0-5-ppr-mock-draft-provides-sharp-reminder-with-quick-change-in-philly/ 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Subscribe to 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
On his way to the end zone.
I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play.
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
What a play.
Off to the races.
Touchdown.
Oh, he's done it again.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben.
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Today podcast.
I'm Jamie Isenberg.
That's Dave Richard.
Dave, we did our Fantasy Football Today in 5 show last night for Tuesday morning, and
it looked like you were being held hostage.
How are you feeling today?
You feel like you're free, ready to go, excited for the day?
I'm out of bondage.
I am ready to rock and roll and talk some serious fantasy football.
Why? Hold on. It looked like I was being and roll and talk some serious fantasy. Hold on.
It looked like I was being held hostage.
There just wasn't a light on.
We should set the scene.
So you do the show in your house.
Everybody can see that you're at home.
I'm at home.
We have our respective backgrounds.
But the light was off on your shot.
I didn't want to turn it.
It was 930 at night.
And I was mellowing out,
and I didn't want to have some big, bright, circular light burning my retinas.
It's good to see you again, though.
I'm excited to see you again.
I survived.
I was worried about you.
All right, so today we're going to spend some time reflecting on the running back position and reviewing a recent half PBR mock draft.
You can see the results on the site, CBS sports.com.
So we're going to spend obviously a lot of time on our, our teams,
our picks when we get into the mock draft,
but what was your favorite pick of the draft?
You know, of the 15 rounds that we did.
I'm going to be guilty of saying quarterback pretty much every time,
but I got to Sean Watson in round six.
And to me, that's just a screaming value.
You can't argue with it. He
finishes QB six in fantasy points per game in 2020 was 26.1 fantasy points per game,
two points better than it was in 2019, three points better than it was in 2018,
five points worse than he was in 2017. But you get the picture. He's been top six in fantasy
points per game each of the past four years. And I look forward to having the quarterback of the Dolphins, Broncos, Niners, Patriots,
Saints, Bears football team as my quarterback in that league. Yeah, we haven't spent a lot of time
talking about this because clearly nothing has happened. He's clearly unhappy about the situation
in Houston. And there is a lot of talk that he's not going to play with the Texans in 2021.
Does that change things for you with Watson from being a surefire top five fantasy quarterback to maybe more of a bottom top 10 type of guy?
I mean, is it going to change dramatically if he goes to the Dolphins, if he goes to the 49ers?
You know, those are the two teams in terms of Vegas odds that he could play at.
You know, we'll see if there's another team that gets in the mix, obviously,
but how much will things change for you with Watson?
Does a team trade for Deshaun Watson with the idea of being balanced
offensively and not taking advantage of his skills?
I would imagine San Francisco does.
Yeah, but I don't know.
I don't know if I could say that about Kyle Shanahan
and that he's never had a quarterback like Deshaun Watson.
Same thing with Brian Flores in Miami.
We don't know how they would react to having a quarterback like that
versus look at Ryan Fitzpatrick and the fact that they let him throw like crazy.
And to a tongue of Iowa, they brought him along.
They were actually aggressive in putting him on the field.
It came out of nowhere last year.
And I think Shanahan is just a master of playing to his offenses,
offenses strengths.
And I think that Watson would give him a pretty big strength.
I'm going to be optimistic about Watson pretty much wherever he goes.
All right.
So that's certainly a story we'll keep an eye on.
But as of now,
a member of the Houston Texans,
Dave,
very excited about taking him in the half PPR mock draft.
For me,
it was DJ Chark in round seven.
I'm just going to be probably pretty glowing about the Jaguars wide receivers, knowing that Trevor Lawrence is
coming and what the opportunity is there for those guys, barring somebody significant coming in,
whether it's through the draft or free agency. But if DJ Chark remains in his spot as the number
one wide receiver for Jacksonville, I'm going to be excited to take him anywhere after round five.
I'll probably start to look for him in round five, but if I get him past that spot, that's going to
be where I get very excited about having DJ Chark on my fantasy team.
You know, you should be excited about the notorious Conor McGregor. He's back. UFC 257
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What's the name of that podcast again, Jamie?
Huh? What's the name of that podcast again?
Morning Combat. You're not saying it the right
way. Morning Combat!
That's how you have to say it well done all right let's reflect on the 2020
season when it comes to the running back position so give me a guy who was a fluke for you from this
past year there's a lot of candidates you know we don't necessarily call this guy a bust but that's
probably what the safer label is for what most fantasy managers are listening to but just from
fluky performance somebody that came out of nowhere and you don't think it's going to be
replicated i don't think dav's going to be replicated.
I don't think David Montgomery is going to finish as a top five running
back again.
I mentioned this on the FFT and five podcast yesterday.
He averaged almost 25 PPR points per game in his final six.
And they included games against the Packers at the time.
Their run defense wasn't very good.
The Jaguars,
the lions,
the Vikings,
like he was tearing up
terrible defenses toward the end of the season. And in the early portion of the season before that
final six game stretch, he was averaging 11.3 PPR points per game. But I want to dig a little
bit deeper into Montgomery and there's going to be a much deeper dive at some point during the
off season. But in his first three games with Tariq Cohen, he averaged 16.3 touches per game.
That's good. And it was basically on pace with what he did with Tariq Cohen, he averaged 16.3 touches per game. That's good.
And it was basically on pace with what he did with Cohen in 2019.
When he was a rookie, he had one game with over a hundred total yards.
He had one touchdown.
It was a receiving touchdown.
And he only had six catches in those three games with Tariq Cohen.
And we know that he wasn't dominating snaps like he did later on in the
year.
Cohen will theoretically be back in Chicago.
I know he signed a contract.
It should be fine with the ACL and they're going to have a quarterback
change.
Trubisky is a free agent.
We'll see if they bring him back.
That would be kind of surprising if they did.
I'm not,
I'm not certain.
Yeah.
I'm,
I'm not certain that the,
the,
that Montgomery is going to be as good as I'm actually,
I am certain he's not going to be as good as he was in 2020.
And I'm not even sure he's going to be a top 12 running back in 2021. I think he could be
a significant letdown guy. For me, it's all about the catches with him because his catches spiked
as soon as three Cohen went down. And so Cohen will be back. I would not be surprised if Trubisky
still the quarterback there, whether it's a franchise tag, whether it's they work out some
sort of cheap deal. It's just one of those situations where who's out there that they could find to replace him.
They don't have a high draft pick. So I don't know if they go that route.
Are they going to go back to Nick Foles? That's a worse situation.
In my opinion, I thought Trubisky was better than Nick Foles last year.
So I can see a small deal being worked out.
Trubisky getting, you know, the three year cheap quarterback deal that we've seen several times over the last several years,
which I don't think is bad for David Montgomery by any stretch.
But I think from the standpoint of where he finished
to where he started last year, it's all about three going for me
because the catches are going to be the thing that sways him,
and I don't think he's catching the ball nearly to that level
with three going back.
Right, like two a game.
That was his average with Cohen in 2020.
You're hoping for three a game, you know, but I think two,
two and a half on average is probably what you're looking at. Uh, for me,
it's James Robinson, not because I don't like him, not because I'm not excited about him. And as we'll
talk about in a little bit, I drafted him in the second round of our half PPR mock draft. And I did
it in both drafts that we've done so far, PPR and our half PPR drafts, but it's just about a player
who we haven't seen do it before. Now getting everything changed, new coach, new quarterback.
And we don't know about the competition in the backfield.
So I hope James Robinson is not a bust.
I hope it's not a fluke, but I am a little bit concerned about him replicating what he
did in 2020, doing it again in 2021 in his sophomore campaign.
Let's move on now to some poor performances from 2020 and some guys who could bounce back.
So these are not necessarily guys that finished in bad spots, but didn't have the best of fantasy seasons,
especially given the expectations.
So, Dave, who's a bounce back candidate for you?
I'll say Miles Sanders, figuring that he can.
And there are some variables that have to come to play.
Number one being, who is this play caller?
What's this offense going to look like?
In theory, I shouldn't say in theory,
they've been a West Coast
offense forever.
I don't know if they're going to
change from that. The only time
they weren't was during Chip Kelly's
reign in Philadelphia.
Sanders was given the opportunity to be a workhorse
at the beginning of last season.
He averaged 15.4 PPR points
per game in those first five games, four of them
with at least 12 points.
It's not bad.
It wasn't giving you what we wanted when we took him with the first-round pick,
but he also closed 2019 strongly as the lead back.
And I'm thinking whoever the new coach is,
they're going to have so much work to do and so much paring down of the salary cap to do
and making things work with what they have
that trying to change up the running backs is going to be very low on their list salary cap to do and making things work with what they have,
that trying to change up the running backs is going to be very low on their list of things to do.
One of the other things that will be low on their list of things to do is finding starting offensive linemen,
because whether they're in bad contract situations or guys coming back from injury,
they're going to be pretty stocked on the offensive line.
Lane Johnson will be back.
Brandon Brooks will be back. Brandon Brooks will be back.
Jason Kelsey will be back.
Andre Dillard will see if he can ever turn into something great at left tackle for Philadelphia, but he's going to be back.
So that offensive line should be better.
And maybe they do a little bit more to take pressure off of the quarterback, whoever that
quarterback may be by leaning on Miles Sanders, who should be the primary running back for
Philadelphia.
Not taking him in round one in 2021, but I could see him right now being around three pick
and maybe with enough hype getting into round two.
Does the quarterback matter for him? Is there one you prefer?
Oh, I'd be okay with either one. I think I'd like it a little bit better if,
well, what version of Carson Wentz am I getting? Am I getting the version of Carson Wentz where he's confident and well-protected and
he's running an offense that he's comfortable with? Or am I getting Carson Wentz where he's
scattershot and he sucks? So I'll take, I'm going to trust whoever Philadelphia puts a quarterback.
It wouldn't be bad if it's Hurts, but I think it would be best if it's somebody like
good Carson Wentz who can attack downfield and make defenses play
straight up against him. I actually would prefer Hertz. I just think the running lanes that'll be
open for Sanders will be there. I think the offense, depending on who the play caller is,
will design throws to him. Hopefully that's the case. But I do think that Hertz opens things up
for this offense a little bit more. So I would like to see Jalen Hertz as the quarterback for
Miles Sanders, but I agree with you. I don't really think it matters.
I think he's going to get
the offensive line back at 100%.
And that's the biggest thing.
And it's the same thing for my guy,
which I took the low hanging fruit
of Ezekiel Elliott bouncing back.
He was clearly the
one of the biggest busts in 2020.
But how much of it was him?
How much of it was
the situation around him?
Dak Prescott going down in week five,
offensive line falling apart all throughout the season,
and everybody hopefully be back at 100%,
at least the main key components on the line and the quarterback.
And so if all those things are there,
we saw what Ezekiel Elliott was at the start of the season
compared to what he was at the end of the season.
The pass catching role is certainly a big part of what he does.
Now, will Tony Pollard take on too much work?
That's the key question at this point, but it's very difficult to see Ezekiel getting past the first round in most fantasy
leagues. He was a first round pick in both of the drafts that we've done so far and deservedly so.
So I do think he's going to bounce back and bounce back in a big way. He's not going to be a top five
overall selection, but I think by the end of the year, if everything works out well, you're going
to say, why didn't I take Ezekiel in the top five based on what the potential is. There's a buy low window open
in dynasty on him right now. If you're trying to win in 2021. Absolutely. Great call. You should be
looking at players like Ezekiel, Miles Sanders, you know, players who had bad seasons and have
the potential to bounce back and bounce back in a big way. All right. So we have some running
backs that have fallen off and, you know, may not
recover. There is a one guy in the news. We just tied in, I guess, with one of the news items. The
Ravens are releasing Mark Ingram. They've notified him they're going to release him. And so that
could be a guy that ends up with a team that maybe ruins a backfield because I still think he has a
little bit left to offer, but no longer a starting running back in the NFL or starting caliber
running back in the NFL. But he could end up being part of a tandem or committee and that could ruin one of our fantasy stars.
But in terms of some of these guys that we're talking about here, who is a guy that you
don't think will ever recover and rebound as a starting fantasy running back once again?
I took the low hanging fruit here and we'll go with Todd Gurley, who is an unrestricted
free agent and just looked like he
was spent. I mean, when, when, you know, Smith and Brian Hill are taking you off the field,
you know, that it's over. So I can't imagine anybody feeling good about drafting Todd Gurley
before pick 100 in a fantasy draft in 2021. I don't think he's going to get a starting job
and at best he'll be, you'll be a short yardage goal line guy
for some team somewhere, somehow, some way.
It's a terrible fall from grace for Todd Gurley,
who three years ago was the cat's meow at running back in fantasy.
It's amazing.
You wonder how much that knee has really been an issue for him,
just the lack of explosion.
He got, you know, good fantasy production at the start of the season last year because
of the touchdowns.
And, you know, I think we all kind of got a little overexcited when he had that game
against Carolina, when he had over 100 yards rushing and looked like the Todd Gurley of
old, but just a shell of himself to close the season.
So you wonder if a team is going to sign him, you know, if he gets an opportunity to play in the NFL in 2021, I know that sounds,
uh, sounds a little shocking to say, but like, can you even believe those words are coming out
of your mouth? Yeah, no, like you said, you know, three years ago when they, when they made their
Superbowl run, we know that he had the knee injury at the end of that season. And it was like, okay,
you know, hopefully he'll be back for the playoffs and he ran well in the post season, but he wasn't the same guy. And then, you know, it was our,
our guy, John breach, uh, one of our NFL guys who ran into the Rams owner at a coffee shop
at the Superbowl. And he said they were concerned. And, you know, John was, was a little hesitant to
write that story. And, um, as, as we've seen, you know, they moved on from girly after signing
into the mega deal and, um, his career Gurley after signing him to the mega deal.
And his career is kind of spiraling in the wrong direction, which is really unfortunate for what he's meant to fantasy football and certainly what he's meant to the Rams and even for the Falcons.
And we knew about the arthritis in his knee from talking to his trainer.
And the pieces kind of added up and the Rams copped to it.
They did what they had to do to eat salary cap space. And this is, this is related in a sense,
financially that do the Rams know what they,
the mistake that they made with Jared Goff,
that they gave him a lot of that,
a lot of that too much money and too big of a contract for a guy who's not
giving them enough,
but they're stuck.
They are really stuck with salary cap ramifications with golf.
Yeah.
I mean,
you know,
they,
they, they went all in to try and win the. I mean, you know, they, they,
they went all in to try and win the super bowl and, you know,
some of the trades that they made afterwards, obviously the Jalen Ramsey deal,
but the thing with golf and,
and I think you're going to see this with a lot of teams as the as a lot of
these, you know, especially these young quarterbacks when they start to come
up, you know, you're damned. If you do, you're damned. If you don't,
if you don't have a guy that you feel comfortable with, what do you do?
You know, you just keep hitting the reset button or you got to pay these pay these guys when you pay these guys and they don't live up to it we've seen it time and time again i mean you know
the the ones that have been very good matt ryan matthew stafford you know those those caliber of
players had to pay them uh the ones that haven't been as good the derrick cars of the world you
know those guys have have been good just not great right and you get guys like you know jared goff
and some of these other quarterbacks that when you pay them and they don't materialize it's uh it's an unfortunate
situation it's terrible and their cap situation the only way they can get out of is if they trade
them and i just don't think there's anybody that's going to take jared goff and trade right now
no especially on that counter i don't think it's going to happen don't don't think it's going to
happen so all right who's your who's the running back that you think is done yeah for me it's james
connor and i don't think he's done as an nfl player it's not the same situation as, uh, as Todd Gurley. And I was a little
surprised that I wish we had a little bit more time yesterday to get into it with, uh, Chris
tower saying that he would take James Conner right now over, or at least he hasn't projected
higher. I don't know if you draft him then, but projected higher than, than can makers and JK
Dobbins. If I remember him saying that correctly, I know he said acres. Um, but I just don't see
Conner staying in Pittsburgh. I can't imagine they're going to pay him what he wants and who's going to pay
him at this point, a deal to be a great starting running back for them.
I think he's going to have to go somewhere where he's a part of a committee
or take a very small deal to stay in Pittsburgh.
And even as we saw this year with the Steelers, he wasn't great.
He has a hard time staying healthy. I think he's a hell of a player.
I think he's got a great opportunity if he did get a starting job to still be
successful,
but injuries are a problem for him.
He just can't put consistent production together.
And I just don't see him getting that type of opportunity again to prove himself like
he did in Pittsburgh, which fell into his lap, really.
I mean, you know, he wasn't drafted to be a featured running back of the Steelers.
He was expected to be a complimentary piece to Le'Veon Bell.
Bell stepped away for a season because of his contract.
James Conner was great that year, and he never lived up to it
after those first 13 games.
Remember, he had the ankle injury at the end of that season,
and then he's never really been the same type of guy.
We've seen spurts. There's been stretches.
But at this point, I just don't see it for James Conner.
So he's somebody that at this point with the drafts that we're doing,
I'll draft him as a flex at best, but to be a starting running back, no chance.
I don't think it's there for him either, but there's one thing I noticed about him,
and this is just a fantasy stat. Six of his first seven games, and I bet you can remember which game
in his first seven was not the good one, at least 13 PPR points in six of his first seven.
But where's he getting the opportunity to get that work again? That's the problem.
I wonder if the Steelers, I wonder if he takes it,
like this would be the ultimate hometown discount.
He spent his entire football life in Pittsburgh,
College of Pitt, drafted by the Steelers.
Does he take a hometown discount to have a chance to be their feature back?
And when I say feature back here, Jamie,
I'm thinking more of like a 50-50 split. He's the 1A. I think that might be the best case scenario is that he's the 1A.
He might end up being the 1B depending on what the Steelers end up doing. But Darren, salary cap
hell. I mean, even if it's a friendly deal, I mean, it has to be almost like he's losing money
to stay there. And I don't know why he would attempt it. And to your point, what team out
there is going to give him $5 million a year? a guy like Mark Ingram with maybe a Kenyan Drake, you know, we're talking about various scales here, but you know,
those types of players that are looking to, Hey,
I can still be this caliber of running back. I mean,
the Broncos paid Melvin Gordon.
We didn't know if he was going to get the type of deal that he got,
you know, so teams fall in love with names and past production.
And I'm sure there's probably a position coach that he's known somewhere
along the way that we'll put in a good word for him or a scout.
And I hope he gets an opportunity because it's a fantastic story,
everything that he's had to overcome in his life.
But I just don't see him as a fantasy option,
knowing what I've seen the last two seasons or watching the last two seasons
and knowing the scenario that I just don't see him going someplace.
Like, does Atlanta consider him as the guy?
You know, you're looking at teams that have holes right now, right?
Right.
Does Atlanta, does Buffalo, if they're not sold on Zach Moss and Devin Singletary, you know, or on cheap rookie deals as third round picks,
do they make an investment on a running back like this? You know, those are the type of teams that
you're looking at and saying, okay, do, you know, again, varying scales of where does he get an
opportunity? If I'm an NFL team, I'd much rather have James Conner than Todd Gurley. I mean,
that's absolutely. So, you know, just in terms of, you know, fall from grace for a fantasy guy that we were,
remember we got excited about him last preseason.
Oh, man.
This was a chance for him.
He crept into the second round.
And unfortunately,
I was excited the year before too.
You know, disappointed with his performance.
All right.
So let's spin it now forward on positive direction
and talk about a breakout player for 2021.
Who's the guy that you're looking at as a breakout candidate?
I will bring up Jeff Wilson.
I didn't want to go with one of the second-year running backs
because I figured that they're going to be popular breakout guys.
So I looked at the 49ers situation.
Jamie, can you tell me which 49ers running back had the most games
with 10-plus non-PPR, 13-plus PPR points in 2020?
I'm going to guess Jeff Wilson.
It was Jarek McKinnon who had six of each,
but Jeff Wilson was right behind him.
But McKinnon, 29 years old, free agent.
Tevin Coleman, 28 years old, free agent.
Raheem Mostert, 29 years old, could be a cap casualty.
Remember, he moaned about getting a new deal last year.
He held out and he got a little contract, and now that contract is bloated, and they might let him go. So there should be some shifting of running backs in San Francisco, but the one guy who's probably going to be there, I would be stunned if he's not actually, is Jeff Wilson, who's 25 years old. He's also a restricted free agent this offseason, but they can give him a one-year deal where he stays there for a couple million bucks and they make him their featured back. I think he's their most physical back.
I think he might end up being their most durable back, not a do-it-all guy. There's no chance he's
going to be 20 touches a game every single week. Just when the other guys are hurt, he'll be that
guy. But I think if I can draft him with the idea of him being a low-end number two running back,
I'm going to draft a ton of running backs early in drafts this year anyway.
But past the second-year running backs, that's where I'm going to look for Jeff Wilson.
I think he's got a chance to really have a great season. And that's saying something because he scored 10 touchdowns in 2020.
He was great.
He was certainly what Raheem Mostert was for the 49ers in 2019,
you know, when everybody was expecting Tevin Coleman to be the lead guy
and before he got hurt, Jarrett McKinnon, and Mostert came out of nowhere.
They do a great job of finding these caliber players,
and it's the Shanahan tradition.
His father did that in Denver.
Kyle and Mike have done that, you know, at times when they've been together.
Alfred Morris is clearly a good example of that as well.
You know, a sixth round pick in the NFL draft that no one expected to be the starter in
Washington that season.
He showed up great in the preseason and he ended up being a fantasy star that year.
I think this is a great call.
It's just a matter of what will the rest of the offseason look like for the 49ers because
they're getting that money off the books of McKinnon, who's been, you know, unfortunately
a bad free agent signing because of injury. Tevin coleman same type of player you know so did they
learn their lesson and not necessarily go spend money on a guy do they draft somebody uh i'm also
curious which of michael hasty if they don't bring in anybody else because he could be that second
guy to jeff wilson they he could be that's a great time this year you know so um wilson's going to be
intriguing i took him in this draft he was uh where did i draft him around six i believe it was oh that's beautiful as uh yeah i
took uh yeah i had the swing picks at pick 12 so i took uh the 49ers combo brandon iuk at the end
of round five and jeff wilson in round six and raheem moster i believe went in round six or
seven let me look it up here yeah he went in seven, James went around seven to,
uh,
uh,
love it.
And so I'm bored with that.
No,
we'll,
we'll,
we'll see.
We'll see how it all shakes out.
You know,
if most are back though,
Dave,
are you still going to say,
feel the same about Jeff Wilson?
I've got to assume at this point that he will be back.
Cause he's under contract to be back.
Um,
yeah,
but I mean,
you're speculating that they may move on.
Um,
yeah.
And,
and the nicer part about it is by the time we get to July. Yeah, but I mean, you're speculating that they may move on. Yeah, and the nicer part about it
is by the time we get to July
and August, that round six
move might be round seven or round eight
because there will be rookies in
our drafts and there will be free agents
that have changed teams in the draft. So maybe
he falls a little bit. He's someone I'd like to have on
my team to begin the year. Yep.
And this is why we do these drafts now for fun
speculating, but also to look back and go, oh my God, what an idiot. Why did I take Jeff Wilson around six
ahead of Raheem Oster? Uh, for me, I'm going to go with the low hanging fruit and take one of the
second year, uh, running backs. And that's the Andre Swift, um, inconsistent rookie campaign.
And once he got the job coming off their bi-week, he was, he was pretty special and then had the hip
injury, the concussion, you know, some things that,red the end of his rookie campaign. But I think you saw the talent and, you know,
certainly there's an opportunity here for him. And really the thing I think with Swift is the
debate of the second year running backs. Is he before or is he after Akers, Gibson, maybe Dobbins,
you know, in PPR, I think in non PPR, half PPR, it's a little bit different conversation,
which is why we're talking about Dobbins here, but you know,
is Swift better than those guys. And, and, you know,
we're expecting Dan Campbell to be the head coach of the Detroit lions that
hasn't become official yet, but you know, who's the play caller, you know,
and how much will that matter? Is Stafford back?
Obviously that's going to be a big part of this is Galladay back. You know,
do they invest more in the offensive line and try and, you know,
build out that unit and make it
a little bit better? But Swift showed you something last year. I hope they move on from
Adrian Peterson. I hope they don't make this too much of a timeshare. And that really was the case
those first few games coming off of their bye week. So Swift showed you something, showed us
something. He was a guy that I think you were a little bit higher on than I was, Dave, in the
preseason. I remember I think the debate for us was Akers versus Swift.
You were a Swift guy.
They both ended up being very good at various points during the season, and they showed
you the potential going into 2021.
So when you get past, obviously, Jonathan Taylor, and I guess we should throw Clyde
Edwards-Lair in this conversation as well, because you drafted him in round two.
So are you still taking CEH over Swift?
I know you said when we talked about this the other day
that you'd take Akers over him,
but at least on the fantasy football team,
you'd take Akers over Swift,
Akers over Edwards-Hilaire.
Would you take Swift over Edwards-Hilaire as well?
I don't think I'm there yet.
And I'm not certain I'm going to take him over Dobbins
because I'm worried that both Dobbins and Swift could be in timeshare situations.
I still love the talent of all these guys.
They're all awesome.
But I need to learn a little bit more about what the Lions plan is going to be at running back.
I know that Swift will be a part of it.
At worst, he'll be in a 50-50.
I want him to be the feature guy.
I want the coaches to say he's our guy.
I think he can handle it.
But who's the quarterback?
Who's the play caller?
How aggressive are they going to be with the run, et cetera, et cetera.
The one encouraging thing I would say about him is toward the end of the season,
not exactly sure how many games we're talking because I'm doing the math off the top of my head.
I think it's his last 11 games.
He had at least 13 PPR points in seven of them.
That's a good start.
And I liked that.
He had a lot of short yardage touchdowns in 2020.
So those are some good things that a guy like Swift,
who you look at as more of an air back can build off of.
I think he's got some potential.
I've really helped the coaching goes his way.
And he went in the third round of this half PPR mock draft
just to kind of tie in these second-year running backs.
Jonathan Taylor was the first one selected, as you would expect.
He went fourth overall.
Then it was James Robinson with the first pick in the second round.
I always forget him because he wasn't drafted,
but he was the first pick in the second round of the –
wasn't drafted in the NFL draft.
First pick in the second round of this half PPR draft.
You took Clyde Edwards Hilaire as the third one with the 10th pick in the
second round.
And then round three was when they really all started to go.
Antonio Gibson was the first one drafted JK Dobbins right after him to you.
And then Deandre Swift went a few picks later,
cam acres fell all the way to round four.
Now,
again,
we did this draft right after the
season ended. So after the, before his two playoff games against Seattle and the Packers. And so I
think that's going to change in people's minds. He probably creeps up maybe even ahead of all of
those guys based on some of the things we've seen and certainly what will happen this off season
for the Rams. But DeAndre Swift is a breakout candidate for me, for you, it's Jeff Wilson.
All right, we'll take a break right now here. When we come back, I'm going to get into the
half PPR mock draft, break down the first two rounds and tell you about some surprise selections
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All right, Dave, let's get into this half PPR mock draft a little bit more in-depth here.
So the way that we do these drafts, we don't include the rookies.
It's a two running back, three wide receiver flex league. And the flex is a running back wide receiver tight end.
So we're just kind of reflecting on what happened in 2020,
looking ahead with some speculation before the draft,
before free agency of what could happen for 2021.
It's all members of our CBS sports staff.
You can see the results on cbssports.com.
You can also check out our PPR mock draft that we talked about last week as
well. So first round, there were nine running backs drafted, two wide receivers and one tight end.
Here are the first five picks and you picked at number three.
So we'll talk about your pick at number three.
Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kumar.
I guess we'll go six.
Alvin Kumar, Devante Adams.
So McCaffrey, Cook, Henry to you, Jonathan Taylor, Kamara and Adam.
So I think you took Derek Henry in both drafts that we've done so far.
You took Henry at four in the PPR draft. We got to change up these drafts.
The draft order, you're getting too many high picks.
Could you move me to one that would make things a little easier.
But in any event, Derek Henry at three, was that an easy choice for you?
Or did you have to debate it between Alvin Kamara,
maybe Devante Adams as a number one receiver?
Oh, absolutely.
I debated it with Kamara.
You know me, James.
I'm not taking a receiver that early.
And with Kamara,
if we knew that Drew Brees was going to come back,
yeah, even this version of Drew Brees,
I think I'd be really comfortable taking Alvin Kamara,
knowing that those catches count.
But in half PPR,
knowing that Derek Henry is just a bull, he's a monster. I'm, I'm ready to say that he's a
safe, strong, early first round pick, even though he has back-to-back seasons with over 400 touches
coming into 2021. It's something that might make you make that face. Like you smell the fart in
the room, but I think he can handle it.
I think he's just a big, beefy dude, and this is who the Titans are.
I'm comfortable taking him that early, even in a half PPR,
probably even in a full PPR,
because he can get you 20 points per game on average in that format too.
Yeah, I don't know full PPR.
I can see half PPR.
Full PPR, I probably would go.
I mean, if you're talking about safe, Devante Adams is probably safer
just based on what his role is
and what he's produced most of 2019,
all of 2020 when he was number one receiver
and he outscored Derrick Henry by five points per game.
So if you're talking safe and upside,
obviously position comes into play, but.
That's what the tiebreaker is for me.
Yep.
All right.
So again, the first six picks,
McCaffrey, Cook, Henry, Jonathan Taylor,
Alvin Kamara, Devante Adams. The back half of again, the first six picks McCaffrey, cook Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara,
Devante Adams,
the backup of the first round,
Saquon Barkley,
number seven,
Nick Chubb,
number eight,
is he going to Elliot number nine,
Tyree kill 10,
Travis Kelsey,
11.
I had the 12th pick and I took Austin Eckler.
So Dave,
anything stand out to you about those next six picks Barkley,
Chubb,
Zeke,
Tyree kill Travis,
Kelsey,
and Austin Eckler.
I think Zeke going nine, I think Chubb going eight and, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelsey, and Austin Eckler. I think Zeke going nine.
I think Chubb going eight and Zeke going nine could get a lot of eyeballs
because there are going to be some people that just will not touch Ezekiel
Elliott.
They're going to think that he's just tainted off of a terrible year,
but you got to look past that.
And if he's still with the Dallas Cowboys getting Dak Prescott back,
theoretically, I mean,
the Cowboys still have to sign them or franchise them,
whatever they have to do.
And getting that offensive line healthy.
And we talked about that on a previous podcast.
Not sure if it was the FFT in five or not,
but his offensive line, assuming that they all get healthy,
that's still going to be one of the best offensive lines
in the league if it happens.
So there's variables there.
And the Cowboys could move on from him,
but they're going to eat a lot of cat dollars. If they do,
I don't know if they're going to be in a real position to do that.
I think they might just rather what the decision they have to make is whether
or not they're going to guarantee next year's salary, 2022 salary,
right after they got to decide that in mid-March,
right after the league new year starts. And I think they're going to do it,
but they're, if they didn't like what they got out of Zeke and-March right after the league new year starts. And I think they're going to do it, but they're,
if they didn't like what they got out of Zeke and they don't think he can get
back to that spot that he once was in and they want to protect their cap for
2022,
they'll dump them.
And maybe it's a trade.
Maybe it's not.
It would be weird if they just straight up cut them.
I think it's even worse on the cap if they cut them.
So I think the odds are that he'll be back in Dallas and that's a good spot for any running back to be in.
So I get why he's going to be a first-round pick,
and hopefully by the time we get to July and August,
everybody else will feel comfortable taking him toward the back end of round one
like that happened here.
Nick Chubb, no one loves the fact that he's going to keep sharing with Kareem Hunt,
but he's still, I don't have a problem taking him in the first round.
I think he's still one of those running backs that you can look at and say, stud going to get a lot of
fantasy points, build a team around him. Absolutely agree on Chubb. Absolutely agree on Elliot. Like
we talked about earlier in the show, if you want to get more on Ezekiel as well, listen to the,
uh, uh, disappointing running back that we think will bounce back for 2021. Uh, I took Eckler and
James Robinson with the swing picks. Like I said,
I am concerned that Robinson could be a fluke, but when doing these drafts, looking at these
running backs and still the potential, we also did this draft before Urban Meyer was hired as
the head coach. So take that into consideration as well. Now in the second round, some running
backs that I took James Robinson over Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones in particular, and then all of the
second year running backs
not named Jonathan Taylor or James Robinson.
Those guys will all come into play for me.
Jones in particular, depending on where he ends up,
if he stays with the Packers, that's going to be a big,
I think, get for Green Bay if they're able to keep him.
But if he leaves, and he can end up being maybe the starting running back.
I'd love to see him in Atlanta.
I'd love to see him with the Jets.
One of those two teams, based on the hires that those two guys have,
I think could be very fantastic. I know it sounds icky to say, ooh, Aaron him with the Jets. One of those two teams, based on the hires that those two guys have, I think could be very fantastic.
I know it sounds icky to say, ooh, Aaron Jones with the Jets,
but offensive line has gotten great.
And coaching staff now has the potential to be great.
So I think that situation is going to be good for whatever running back they get.
And then obviously with Atlanta, knowing that Arthur Smith is there,
clearly Derrick Henry is a special talent.
But I think Arthur Smith deserves some credit for bringing out that special talent.
And we'll see what he's able to do in building out the run game there in Atlanta, which, as we talked about with Todd Gurley, was clearly a frustrating situation.
So Eckler and James Robinson, the picks for me to end round one, start round two.
Here's the beginning of round two as well.
So James Robinson with the first pick, then Stephon Diggs, George Kittle, Calvin Ridley,
Josh Jacobs, and DeAndre Hopkins.
So Dave, same question.
Anything stand out to you in terms of surprises?
I know that we are both right now in the camp of Waller over Kittle.
Kittle went ahead in this draft.
Waller was the 19th pick in the second round.
But anything else stand out to you in terms of the first few picks around two he was right after hopkins and that's the only thing is the
tight ends i would take waller over kittle i love them both i think this is an okay spot to take
tight ends in 2021 because the depth of running back is going to still be pretty good when you
get to round three the receiver depth is going to be unbelievable because they're kind of getting
pushed down by all the running backs that are going to get taken
and the quarterbacks are going to get pushed down too. I don't know if we're going to have
a mock draft in a one quarterback league where a quarterback goes in the first two rounds,
if not the first three rounds. So there's a lot to like about taking a tight end and having that
true position scarcity on your side if you feel really good about taking
you're going like running back tight end running back and then go look at our mock drafts and see
the receivers that win in rounds four through six that's a strategy that's a plan you can take but
it might have to be a plan that you take especially if you've got an early second round pick not sure
you're going to be able to do maybe you Maybe you can do tight end like Kelsey running back,
running back with your first three picks.
If you're late,
run one played out in real life because he took Travis Kelsey in round one.
In round two,
he took Stefan dig.
So no running backs.
So that's the,
you know,
not.
So when did he take,
what did he do in round three?
So he started Kelsey digs.
And then round three,
he went with Patrick Mahomes.
So he went um you know as
probably close to zero RB as as you'll see a lot of people start Chris Godwin in round four oh
that's zero RB that's it oh he went he went oh he definitely went all in Brandon Cooks in round five
and then we get to round six and he's got Kenyon Drake as his first running back
Raheem Mostert as his second running back all right but it doesn't really matter who he took
here like it's the strategy of it because I don't know what type of running backs will really Raheem Mostert as a second running back. Right. But it doesn't really matter who he took here.
It's the strategy of it because I don't know what type of running backs will really be there by the time you get to round five in July.
But that is Jeff Wilson territory.
There's always going to be guys that we say,
oh, this guy should not be good.
It's going to be...
It's guys that can just get you off to a good start.
Damien Harris. Those type of guys. And I'm putting them in starters roles you know those caliber of players if the Jets don't add anybody of significance and it's let's say
Michael it's Frank Gore and then they go that route or Frank Gore all right let's play out
the scenario I guess that was a bad example just because not knowing what his team looked like so
you said uh going still interesting running back so rj white uh well again another
bad one he took tyree kill and george kill let's find one that actually did work here all right
well what could he have done in round three no we'll go we'll go to one that uh perfect perfect
example because chris is very uh high on on i guess none of these guys did running back tight
end uh chris did davante adams darren waller and uh and rj did tyree kill uh george kill but we get
your point going running back tight end and then loading up on on running backs and take another
running back in round three and then going wide receiver and then ignore him for a while right
easy way to do it all right let's get to the back half of uh of the second round so again it starts
with darren waller aaron jones dk metcalf you took clive edwards alair we'll get into this a little
bit more about the guys you drafted him over justin Jefferson and Michael Thomas round out the end of the round.
So you got Waller, Jones, Metcalf, Edwards-Hilaire, Jefferson, and Michael Thomas. So take us through
your thought process on Edwards-Hilaire, knowing that it was a good start to his rookie campaign,
a disappointing finish to 2020. And again, we did this draft right after the season ended so uh not necessarily
seeing what cam acres did and and that performance so i think that that could change your mind but
obviously you know what those guys have done in the season so you took edwards allaire over
dobbins over acres over swift and over antonio gibson all those guys went in the third round
and so what's my thought process i wish i'd taken cam acres that's my thought process? I wish I had taken Cam Akers. That's my thought process
as I sit here right now. That's what I would do
if I could have a do-over on it. But
I got some stats on Edwards
Hilaire that makes me kind
of comfortable about him. The fact that he
had six games with at least nine non-PPR
points, seven with at least 12
PPR points in his first 10 games
as a rookie, that's
something to build on.
And let's be real.
He's Andy Reid's running back.
At least I hope he's his main running back starting in 2021.
And the offensive line, hopefully that gets a little bit stronger.
Remember, they began the year without the doctor, Tardif, at guard.
And then they signed Osemele, and he got hurt.
So I wonder if that played a role into them it's not hurt yeah sure oh yeah that's another one too so like they had
their offensive line issues as well that could have hurt him but there was obviously something
that the coaching staff didn't love about edwards a lair because they went and got levy on bell
and we were scratching our heads at the time about levyVeon Bell. It's come to pass in the
playoff game that just happened. It was
all Daryl Williams, very little of Le'Veon Bell.
I think
that he is more of a
work in progress than we wanted to believe
when he came out of LSU.
I hope that what
he does is shows the coaching staff this
offseason, and hopefully it's a normal offseason,
that he is a good passing downs guy.
Cause I loved his skillset as a pass catcher at LSU.
And we just didn't see enough of that in his rookie season.
So if he can build on that and be more than a 50,
50 guy,
be their lead back.
Maybe the third downs do end up going to Daryl Williams in 2021.
I can live with that.
Maybe he gets better at the goal line.
You remember how that first game went for Edwards-Hilaire
where he just could not punch it in.
And maybe that's part of the offensive line too.
It definitely is actually.
There were plays where he had no shot because of the offensive line.
I think he can be a very good fantasy running back.
And you want to talk about a breakout candidate
and a bounce-back candidate all in one?
It's Edwards-Hilaire.
I just think I'd feel better going with Akers at this point
knowing that Akers should be in that main role for the Rams all in one it's edwards hilaire i just think i'd feel better going with acres at this point knowing
that acres should be in that main role for the rams where he's getting 18 plus touches per game
i don't think edwards hilaire is quite there yet for kansas city there's there's two things that
play for me i would have taken all those other guys over in this format i think edwards hilaire
easily over dobbins in full ppr but but I think I would have gone with Dobbins.
I would have gone with Akers. I would have gone with Swift and I would have gone with Gibson.
I'll sort of taken mile Sanders ahead of Edward Solaire as well, who went in round three.
There's two things. One is Damian Williams back, because I think that's something that you got to
keep an eye on because clearly the chiefs love him. And, and is he the missing link to what this
offense is? And the second part of it,
if Damian Williams isn't back, they're probably going to go with somebody else in that spot
because Le'Veon Bell's gone. He's not coming back. And what's the other player that they bring in?
So I want to see those two things happen. If Williams is there, I'll be a little bit more
concerned about Edwards-Lair. If it's another rookie, if it's another aging veteran, I wouldn't
be as concerned. But if Damian Williams does come back and he opted out this season,
as we all remember because of concerns over COVID-19, you know,
Darrell Williams showed you what Damien Williams was doing last year.
You know, not to the same explosiveness, but, you know,
we didn't really see that a lot from Edwards Hilaire consistently
throughout the season, especially after Le'Veon Bell came on the roster.
So I just, I wonder if the Chiefs had a do-over.
Would they take Edwards Hilaire with the first round pick in the NFL draft,
knowing how things worked out for them?
Did they feel like they got a good return on investment?
I hope so down the road, but.
Right.
They can't say that for 2020, but it's more about down the road.
I'm sure they're still very bullish on him.
The other part of it is, is no off season, you know?
So let's give the kids some credit. You know, he was thrown into the mix.
He wasn't expected to be the starter.
They did expect to have Damien Williams when they drafted him.
And so no off season to speak of,
let's see how he does with a full off season.
Hopefully it'll be a hundred percent healthy and we'll see if he's able to
play in the AFC championship game as they take on the Buffalo bills.
All right. So you can see it again, the full results of the draft.
We'll recap our teams in a second, but you see the full results of the draft. We'll recap our teams
in a second, but you see the full results of the drafts on CBS sports.com. Dave one, one pick you
made, I think it was interesting and probably going to end up being a great value. If it ends
up going like this as Cortland Sutton in round seven, you took them over some other receivers
though, that, that are probably going to be in the same conversation for a lot of fantasy managers
that they may debate Hollywood Brown. The way he finished the season was fantastic.
He could still be the number one wide receiver for the Ravens.
Jerry Judy on Sutton's team.
We know that they're going to try and increase what his production was after a disappointing
rookie campaign.
We saw how much he was targeted down the stretch, I think, as the Broncos trying to get him
going.
And then DJ Chark, as we talked about, I'm very excited about him.
I'm sure you are as well.
But we'll see how this whole offense comes together for the Jaguars once they get Trevor Lawrence and get the play caller in place for Urban Meyer.
But is Sutton an easy choice for you over those guys, or was it something you debated as well?
For now, he's an easy choice over those guys. I'm making the assumption that the Ravens do
add to their receiving core, whether that helps. I think it ends up hurting Marquise Brown. I know
that he's been, I know that he finished strong and I'm happy to see that because I think he's a talented receiver, but I'm not, I'm it's a team that doesn't throw a
lot and they're going to add another receiver to try and force defenses to not hone in on the run
anymore. At least I'd be, I'd be surprised if they didn't add another receiver. So I'm not sure that
Marquise Brown will give you a good return on investment, obviously around 70 could, but like
in round five, for example, but in round five, for example.
Jerry Judy, we know that he's got great potential,
but I think Sutton is probably a little more well-rounded at this point.
And so Sutton, he averaged over 13 PPR points per game in 2019.
He finished as wide receiver 18 in 2019.
I think that he can be...
Whether they change their quarterback or not in Denver,
I think he's still going to begin the season as their number one guy. Could Judy overtake him?
Absolutely. And maybe we'll clip this and play it back in July. And I'll say, what? There's no way
I said that. Cause I really liked Jerry Judy too, but I do think that Sutton in round seven
at the very worst, he'll be the very good number two receiver in denver and if
they have a great quarterback that offense is going to be amazing with judy and sutton noah
fan of tight end the whole group and they'll i don't know if their run game is going to be that
great so they could end up throwing quite a bit i'd like to have a piece of that sutton's a great
value in round seven to have two situations where the sophomore wide receiver in 2021 can overtake the veteran guy.
And I use veteran loosely because Cortland Sutton is entering his fourth season.
But we've talked about one on Monday's show with Dallas where CeeDee Lamb could end up being the better fantasy wide receiver than Amari Cooper.
And Judy can still end up being the better wide receiver than Cortland Sutton.
It's true.
It's clearly easier in Denver because of Sutton coming off a significant injury.
CeeDee Lamb has to prove he's better than Amari Cooper and command the targets.
Judy, I think, is going to command the targets.
He just has to prove that he's better than Cortland Sutton,
and Sutton has to prove that he's healthy.
All right, let's take a look at our teams real quick.
Dave, I'll read your team.
You just jump in if there's anything that stands out you want to talk about.
But your quarterback is Deshaun Watson.
You talked about that with the value that you got on him.
Derek Henry, Clyde Edwards-Lair, your first two picks.
Kenny Galladay, T. Higgins, and Cortland Sutton, your wide receivers. Irv Smith is your
tight end. J.K. Dobbins is your flex. On your bench, you got Joe Burrow, Tariq Cohen, Joshua
Kelly, Tony Pollard, A.J. Green, and Mike Williams. Do you think A.J. Green still has something left
to offer if he gets signed to a team that can use him as maybe a number two wide receiver in that
respect? I think he was my last pick. So it was just like a, what the hell I know he's still talented.
I think he could be a good bench receiver in fantasy. We'll see. We'll see. Hopefully he
gets an opportunity to play. For me, my quarterback is Jalen hurts. And again,
we did this draft before Doug Peterson was fired. I don't know if it would have taken
Jalen hurts to be my starter, but I did take Taysom Hill as my second quarterback going way off
the board as fantasy quarterbacks here, not knowing if either guy will be a starter in 2021.
But that's why, again, we do these drafts. Now, my running backs are Austin Eckler and James
Robinson. My receivers, again, three receiver league, Keenan Allen, Brandon Ayuk, and DJ Moore.
I love that group of receivers and getting a good group
keenan allen in round four to me was just fantastic value uh hunter henry is my tight end jeff wilson
is the flex i took him in round six like we talked about over raheem mostert my bench is aj dillon i
love that pick as well because he could be the starting running back for the green bay packers
next year but i'll soak jamal williams so uh i would not be surprised if williams gets a hometown
discount to stay in green bay and that's the. That's the running back duo for the Packers
next year, because Aaron Jones is probably going to command a little bit too much money. But I took
DJ Tark as a fourth receiver, thrilled about that. Christian Kirk is a fifth wide receiver.
I love this receiving core. And second tight end I drafted was Blake Jarwin, which I will probably
do quite a bit of because I don't know how excited people will be about Blake Jarwin
knowing that Dalton Schultz will still be there,
but I still think Jarwin comes back as the lead tight end for the Cowboys
and has a chance to be a top 12 guy like I thought he would be going into 2020,
but unfortunately suffered that torn ACL.
Dave, you know what?
What's up?
You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers.
Simply say, Alexa, play the latest episode of the fantasy football today podcast, or Hey Google,
play the latest episode of the fantasy football today podcast.
You know what I like to say? Hey Alexa,
make sure Dave Richard is safe and not being held hostage.
Glad to see your smiling face once again.
Thank you, Jamie. Thanks for paying the ransom.
We'll be back on Thursday for a little bit more in-depth look at the wide
receiver position.
Also previewing the championship rounds.
It's going to be fun.
Hopefully Patrick Mahomes is healthy and we get Alan,
Mahomes,
Rogers,
Brady to be some fun games and some fun DFS plays as well.
For Dave Richard,
I'm Jamie Eisenberg.
Thanks for listening to fancy football today.
Got to go.
Bye.