Fantasy Football Today - RB Replacements; Year 2 WRs; Tannehill or Rodgers ROS? (10/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: October 19, 2020We had four RBs leave with injuries on Sunday, so how are we ranking the replacements (3:25)? Boston Scott or Giovani Bernard? Who is the 49ers RB to have if Raheem Mostert misses time? ... Recapping ...Rams-49ers (8:00) and discussing Deebo Samuel, Darrell Henderson and the Rams WRs. Then we get into our Five Big Topics as we rank our Top 5 sophomore WRs (15:00) and discuss players with favorable schedules going forward (22:55) ... What did we learn from Alexander Mattison's dud (28:02)? And who do we like better rest of season: Aaron Rodgers or Ryan Tannehill (30:50)? And we finish with some key stats you need to know (35:00) about D'Andre Swift, Travis Fulgham and more ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Listen to the brand new Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-in-5/id1528634304 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
On his way to the end zone.
I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play.
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
What a play.
Off to the races.
Touchdown.
Oh, he's done it again.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben.
Adam Acer here on a Monday, early afternoon,
late morning, whatever you want to call it,
here with a couple of frustrated fantasy managers
who did not believe in Ryan Tannehill yesterday.
That would be Ben Schrager and Frank Stample.
Frank, why don't you believe in Ryan Tannehill?
Well, I do now.
Revision is history, huh?
Hindsight is 20-20.
But unfortunately, I started Matthew Stafford over Ryan Tannehill
in a one-quarterback league yesterday,
and I'm probably going to lose because of it.
And now I don't want to play fantasy football anymore.
Oh, that's okay. There's still plenty of time left.
Ben, why don't you believe in Ryan Tannehill?
I do now, too.
It's just Matthew Stafford had such a smash matchup last week.
I traded for him at 12-51, started him over Tannehill,
and now I'm down by 16 points.
That probably would have been the difference.
Traded for him at 1251.
That is right under the gun,
and you obviously were not doing your job
and producing our Twitch stream properly.
Instead, you were out making fantasy football trades,
so that's kind of hurtful.
Exactly.
I was just thinking that, too.
I'm like, Ben, how did you make a trade at 1251?
I was doing AskFFT on Twitter.
We had Twitch going, and I got an offer.
I had to pull the trigger.
He's 23 years old.
He's got plenty of energy.
He can multitask.
All right, well, anyway, today we got our five big topics.
Those topics are your two wide receivers.
Who are our top five your two wide receivers? And yeah, they've
been pretty good so far.
Other topics. How early
is too early to be trading or picking up players
with playoff strength of schedule in mind?
What did we learn about Alexander
Madison? And what did we
learn about Aaron Rodgers? And what did we learn
about, of course, Ryan Tannehill?
Is he a top five quarterback rest of season? Well, I'll tell you right now on a per game basis, he's number six
in both four point and six point for passing touchdown leagues. But one of the top five is
Dak Prescott. So based on that, Ryan Tannehill right now is a top five quarterback. But you
know, we'll see what his schedule is really bad, and we'll see if it matters.
All right, so the big news is that Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon,
Mark Ingram, and Raheem Mostert all left with injuries.
So we'll talk about running back replacements.
I'll just run through some other news items from the Sunday night game.
Trent Williams, San Francisco left tackle, was evaluated for a head injury.
Cam Akers got one touch in the game.
This is what Sean McVay said.
Quote, it was more the result of Cam not being able to get into the flow because we had such a minimal amount of drives in the first half.
We got him in there a little bit in the second half,
but we ended up throwing it on a one-play sequence where it's incomplete.
So then it's second and 10, and we ended up putting Malcolm in the game.
So very frustrating for Cam Akers, fantasy managers, not much there.
Green Bay left tackle David Bakhtiari left with a chest injury.
Tampa Bay acquired Steve McClendon nose tackle from the Jets
and a seventh-round pick for a sixth-round pick,
so the Jets are in tank mode.
Frank Stample, a Jets fan, is very happy about that.
And this is a Vita Veya replacement for the Buccaneers,
whose run defense was still elite yesterday.
And they really are a very good defense
and just improved with this trade.
All right, running back replacement.
So when you look at these four situations,
Sanders, Mixon, Ingram, Mostert, Ben, break it down.
Who are your top priorities
if you're looking at the waiver wire?
Giovanni Bernard's by far the top priority.
The other situations, there's the split issues. and Giovanni Bernard can get goal line work.
He will get third down work and he'll dominate snaps and he has dominated snaps anytime he's
been the lead back.
So he's got Cleveland this week.
He is going to be a stud.
He'll be in the top 15, if not higher, if mixing is out.
And then with the others, Boston Boston Scott has a great matchup,
but he's going to split with Corey Clement.
Mark Ingram's hurt, but the Ravens are on by.
And Raheem Mostert's hurt.
We don't know the severity of it.
Hasty played more snaps than McKinnon
after Mostert had left the game.
So it's kind of a messy situation
outside of Giovanni Bernard being the bell cow in Cincinnati.
I would push back on Boston Scott having a great matchup.
The Giants have not allowed a 15-yard carry to a running back
in four straight games.
No running back has more than 14 yards on any carry, Ben.
But that's fine.
He will catch passes and score touchdowns.
He will probably score touchdowns, yes.
That's Boston Scott we're talking about.
And that's a Thursday game.
And Miles Sanders,
I mean, it seems like his injury is more serious than Gio's.
I don't really know
about most of it. But yeah, you're right. I mean, Hasty
just basically replaced an ineffective
Jarek McKinnon. Tevin Coleman
is eligible to come off IR, but there's no
indication that's going to happen. Frank, how about you?
How are you ranking these guys?
Yeah, I think it's Gio Bernard. very clearly number one in terms of replacements here boston
scott like we had this opportunity early on in the season and he just did not look good i don't know
if it was just rust to start the season or whatever it was but there was an injury there as well and
apparently what's up there was an injury there in week one. He got dinged up in the game.
It's kind of vague, though.
I still think if
Raheem Mostert
would have missed time,
I still think
Jarek McKinnon
would play more snaps.
I know it didn't happen yesterday.
It might have been
a game flow thing,
but we've seen games
without Mostert this year
where Jarek McKinnon
was great for fantasy.
I'm not going to move him
ahead of Boston Scott yet,
but I probably would have him third
on the list. I saw fantasy Twitter going
ablaze about Jamichael Hasey yesterday
and I look at his box score and I'm like,
he's not really doing anything.
I understand he's a good athlete and people are
excited about him, but nine carries
37 yards. Yeah, he's probably pretty
good, but I thought he had
100 yards rushing the way people were talking about him
on Twitter. Yeah, well, McKinnon has been pretty bad
carrying the ball, I'd say, this year.
I'm not sure what his yards per carry is,
but I would say it's probably,
I'm going to guess like 3.4.
Anybody want to look it up, McKinnon?
I'll look it up for you.
Okay, let me know.
So, Geo could be the prize this week
of the running back replacements,
but Mixon was kind of in and out of the game
with that injury, so we just don't know. And the Ravens are on a bye this week of the running back replacements, but Mixon was kind of in and out of the game with that injury.
So we just don't know.
And the Ravens are on a bye this week.
Adam?
Yeah?
That would be 5.1 yards per carry
for Jerick McKinnon.
Oh, you know what?
It's probably from earlier in the season.
He had like a big...
Right? What was...
Let's see.
He has a 55-yard rush in the season.
I'm sure if you eliminate that, it's probably like 3.4.
He had three carries for 77 yards at the Jets.
Since then, 14 for 38, 14 for 54,
one for zero, and six for 18.
So I guess I was just really considering the games that Mostert
got hurt. But yes, sorry about that.
All right, let's go to the game
last night. Oh, Ben, what are we promoting today?
What are we
promoting? Let's see. I messaged it to you.
So let's double check. We are promoting the Facebook
group. Join our Facebook group.
Search Fantasy Football today on Facebook.
Click the link in the description here. Chat with the
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So join that Facebook group and the Apple podcast review mailbag on
Saturday.
We do the mailbag Wednesday.
We do a mailbag segment.
We'll be pulling Apple podcast review questions from there.
So leave your five-star review on Apple and we'll get your question
answered on the show.
Okay.
Jarek McKinnon in his last four games is averaging pie
3.14 yards per carry.
You know pie?
The math thing?
Can you go any further than 3.14?
No. Can you?
You were in high school like two years ago.
Yeah.
That's all I got.
Okay. 1.59 you said?
3.14159. Some listener could do it all, I bet. Leave us One five nine. You said 3.14159.
Some listener could do it all.
I bet.
Leave us a five star review.
Give us the full pie.
That'd be funny.
Okay.
Uh,
all right.
So 24,
16,
49ers over Rams,
Frank,
big takeaways from this game.
I think one of the biggest takeaways is that Debo Samuel looked pretty damn good.
And he has 14 targets over his last two games.
So I didn't really know how to rank the 49ers wide receivers coming into this week.
And I was hoping that somebody would pull away here.
And I guess it still wouldn't surprise me if this is kind of a weekly thing where one week it's Debo Samuel and one week it's Brandon Ayuk.
But for now, it looks like Debo Samuel, at least over the past two weeks,
is kind of taking the reins as the top wide receiver for the 49ers.
He's obviously not the top pass catcher
because that's going to be George Kittle.
But I was pretty interested
in how Debo Samuel looked last night
and how he performed.
Yeah, and it was a lot of...
I mean, I don't even know what...
His ADOT this year is 3.6 yards.
It may have been lower than that yesterday.
I mean, a lot of short stuff.
The pitch to him, that was a touchdown catch.
So this is what the Niners do.
They don't really throw the ball downfield much.
But last year, Debo's ADOT was 7.5 yards per target.
That's average depth per target.
That's basically how deep he's running his routes
when he's targeted
or how far downfield he is when he's targeted.
And this year, it's 3.6 yards.
That's extremely low.
So I was encouraged,
but it was very gimmicky stuff, I thought.
That's their offense, so I think it's fine.
But there's not going to be a lot of consistency,
I don't think, with or I even I, you,
I is a touchdown dependent guy at this point.
Maybe he breaks off a big run, but yes,
it was really great to see Samuel become the guy last night.
I don't think there's any hesitation to drop by you for like Fulgham or
geo or not at all. Right. Yeah. You can drop. Yeah.
I'm cool with that.
And the quarterback play has been kind of questionable,
obviously from the 49ers all season.
Like Jimmy G getting benched last week,
he did not look good.
And then obviously all the injuries.
So I think that might affect some of the ADOT stuff for him.
But obviously they want to throw a lot of short passes
and let these guys work.
Well, Chris Collinsworth talked about it
on the broadcast last night
where Garoppolo has this high ankle sprain
and they basically said how much it was changing his mechanics and how much it was affecting him. And he seemed to be a little
bit better with it yesterday, but it's a tough injury to play through. And he didn't really
miss that much time with it. So Garoppolo does score 28 fantasy points. And this is another guy,
he's just, again, he's just always really efficient. Okay. Week one, he scored 22 points.
That's not bad. Week two, he scored 22 points. That's not bad.
Week two, he scored 17 points on 16 passes before leaving at the Jets.
And then 28 points against the Rams.
He's at New England next week, then at Seattle.
So you could do worse than Garoppolo.
Let's talk about the running backs for the Rams here, though.
Let's talk about Daryl Henderson, Ben.
14 carries, 88 yards.
Malcolm Brown, two carries and three catches.
Cam Akers, oh, he didn't even have a touch.
I thought he had one.
He had zero touches.
So, yeah, how confident are you in Henderson,
who has started in 49% of leagues?
I'm no more or less confident than I was before this week.
I think he's a low-end RB2.
You're hoping he finds the end zone,
but he's going to get over 10 touches.
It's just a matter of not a lot of passing down work.
He's probably going to get the red zone work,
but guess what?
Malcolm Brown gets red zone work too.
And at some point, Cam Akers will come on,
but Henderson's the lead guy.
I don't want to start Malcolm Brown.
He's not even the flex conversation for me.
And Akers, I've got to see something
before starting him moving forward.
One snap.
He played one snap. Yeah, one snap, not one one touch you said eventually he's going to come out i don't like
it's a different situation than the lions you know daryl henderson is doing a good enough job
malcolm brown comes in malcolm brown was in there during their like four minute drill at the end of
the game he appears to be their passing downs guy i i don't know that they need cam makers
they don't it might be like henderson last year where they didn't need henderson I don't know that they need cam makers. They don't. It might be like Henderson
last year where they didn't need Henderson. I don't know that fantasy managers need cam makers.
It's tough to drop him, but it's cool. Drop him. You are like, unless there's an injury,
Frank, you cool dropping him too. I think especially if you are, you know, under 500,
if you're falling behind, if you're two and four, you're one and five. Obviously, you have to make a move
and if you just need a one-week replacement
to get Giovanni Bernard,
I don't have a problem doing with that.
But if you are four and two or better,
I probably would hold on to him
just to see what happens
because I still think that there is upside.
But I would imagine most people
who drafted Cam Akers
probably did it in the fifth or sixth round.
And if that's the case,
your team might not be doing pretty good.
So I think if you have
to cut bait,
I don't have a problem.
Okay.
Daryl Henderson had a carry,
got down to the one yard line,
like the two yard line,
got a carry on the next play.
And then he was pushed
out of balance inside the two,
came out of the game
for one play.
So he,
he almost had a touchdown
and yeah,
we'd like to see him
a little more involved
in the passing game,
but it doesn't really look
like it's going to happen.
Last thing here on Jared. Well, we'll talk about the wide receivers, but
Jared Goff, he's
95% rostered.
I don't know that you need to roster him because
he's got the Bears this upcoming
week. They are giving up the
fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, so they
have a very easy schedule.
Then
he's at Miami, who's giving up the ninth fewest points,
and then he has a bye.
So you're thinking probably in the next three games,
if you don't need Goff,
you're probably starting him in one
at most of the next three weeks.
Bears, Dolphins, and then a bye.
So, yeah, run-heavy offense.
I just don't think he needs to be rostered
in 95% of leagues, personally.
I agree with that.
He plays the Seahawks in Week 10,
so you like that matchup,
but then Tampa Bay the following week,
look what Tampa Bay just did against Aaron Rodgers.
So three of the next four games
over the next five weeks,
you are not going to be starting Jared Goff.
All right, Cooper Cup, bad game,
but got nine targets,
dropped a deep ball,
dropped a touchdown,
could have been better.
And Robert Woods, yeah, we talked about him as a sell high last week.
He did catch a touchdown, and he had 10 targets.
And he's currently a top 24 wide receiver in both formats.
Who do you guys like better, Woods or Cup?
And how do you feel about them going forward?
They are going to be ranked, for me, exactly the same every single week.
It's going to be a high end wide receiver too.
They always get the targets,
but the way this offense works,
some of those targets are deep balls that golf isn't throwing well.
And a lot of them are short balls that they've got to do work after the
catch.
And sometimes cup turns that into one 50,
sometimes woods turns it into one 25,
but at the end of the day,
they're going to be boom or bust wide receiver twos,
but the targets are there. The offense is good. I still to be boom or bust wide receiver twos, but the targets are there.
The offense is good.
I still have them as high end wide receiver twos.
Yeah, I think that's pretty well said.
And it's, I've ranked them basically back to back
as wide receiver twos has been mentioned
the past couple of weeks.
And I appreciate that their target concentration
is so closely on just those two guys, right?
Like 10 targets for Woods in this game,
nine targets for Cooper in this game,
nine targets for Cooper Cup.
It seems like the tight ends are just both taking away from each other.
So you can't really trust any of those guys.
They're not throwing the ball much,
but when they do, it is going to Robert Woods
and it is going to Cooper Cup.
So I think those guys are solid wide receiver twos.
I think it's well said.
All right, guys, it's time for five big topics.
The first one comes from the Pick 6 Podcast fan page.
I know you're big on second-year wide receivers.
Can you rank the top five second-year wide receivers
rest of season?
Okay, who wants to go first?
I got it.
Okay.
I got it here ready for you, Adam.
All right, top five year two wide receivers rest of season.
All right, here we go.
Number one, DK Metcalf. No surprise there. Number two, AJ Brown. Although he does have
a tough schedule ahead, I still trust his combination of quarterback play and opportunity
more than the other names I'm about to mention. Number three, Terry McLaurin. And I think this
one's really, really close with Hollywood Brown, who I have fourth, but I just don't really trust the Ravens to pass the ball all that much. And Washington,
yes, their quarterback play is questionable, but when they throw the ball, basically all the
targets go to Terry McLaurin. So I rank him slightly ahead of Hollywood Brown and then
fifth on this list. I do have Debo Samuel, and I think that there is going to be some inconsistency
at times, but I think that you could say the same thing about the guys who I think just
miss this list in Darius Slayton and Deontay Johnson.
I mean,
I think it's,
I think it's an easy top four.
First of all,
I can't in good conscience,
put AJ Brown ahead of DK Metcalf,
but it wouldn't shock me if AJ Brown were number one.
Adam,
don't do this.
Oh, look, they are basically getting the same. They're getting the same amount of targets per game. it wouldn't shock me if AJ Brown were number one. Adam, don't do this. No, don't do this.
Look, they are basically getting the same amount of targets per game.
And AJ Brown was playing hurt in week one.
So he's had two healthy games,
and he has, what, three touchdowns in those two games?
So, like, he's awesome.
Just, you have to respect Metcalf and put him number one.
Over 90 yards a game,
every single game.
I understand.
Metcalf has Russell Wilson as quarterback.
And I know that Ryan Tannehill is doing like his best Russell Wilson
impersonation right now,
but he's still not Russell Wilson.
And I don't know that it matters all that much,
but Corey Davis is going to be back at some point.
Yeah.
And Josh Gordon could be back at some point.
Oh,
come on, Adam. I've just like, who's Corey David? Corey Davis is a nothing last year. Yeah, and Josh Gordon could be back at some point. Oh, come on, Adam.
Who's Corey Davis? Corey Davis
was a nothing last year.
He was pretty good earlier in the season.
Yeah, without A.J. Brown.
That's fine. That's cool.
Obviously, you're putting Metcalf number one.
No doubt. But
Brown could challenge him.
Brown is awesome. You do mention the schedule,
though. It's pretty tough for A.J. Brown.
Bad.
There's like Pittsburgh.
I have it for Tannehill, so...
What is the remaining schedule for Tannehill?
It is Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Chicago, Colts, Ravens, Colts, Browns.
Yeah.
It gets great in the fantasy playoffs, but that's enough right there.
If you have any thoughts of Brown as number one, that they're gone.
And then McLaurin,
like here are the 16 game paces
for McLaurin versus Marquise Brown.
McLaurin, 96 catches,
1,300 yards,
three touchdowns,
155 targets.
96, 1,303 on 155 targets.
Marquise Brown,
69 catches, 1,000 yards,
three catches on 112 targets.
So McLaurin is currently on pace for 43 more targets,
27 more catches, almost 300 more yards.
I did some rounding.
And the same amount of touchdowns.
So I just don't know how you can put Brown ahead of McLaurin.
I think you're, yeah, the one through four.
Ben, you agree?
One through four has to be Metcalf, Brown, McLaurin, Marquise Brown?
Yeah, the only thing I differ on is I think McLaurin is closer to A.J. Brown
than he is Marquise Brown.
I'm just super encouraged by the almost 10 targets a game.
The game scripts are going to be there for McLaurin.
I think McLaurin is a close three,
close to AJ Brown at two. And then I have Slayton as my five, almost had Debo Samuel as my five,
but I think they're both actually very close with Marquise Brown. The Ravens are not throwing any more than they were last year. And it's not like there's a high target share going to Marquise
Brown. No, there is. There is. He's at 25.5%. That's the good news.
That's a positive.
Yeah, he's getting a high target share.
I see what you're saying about McLaurin versus Brown.
And I know it's hard to predict touchdowns,
but I do feel like at the end of the day, the Titans are going to have 30 to 35 passing touchdowns,
and Washington might have 20.
So that's why
it's an easy two for me
for A.J. Brown and three for McLaurin.
But, you know, yards...
Touchdowns are not going anywhere for A.J. Brown.
They're going to keep coming all year long.
Yards and catches might favor McLaurin. It's possible.
He's on pace for 96 catches
and 1,300 yards. He's having a great year.
The upcoming schedule for Hollywood
Brown after his week seven bye too,
I know we look at the Steelers as a great defense,
and they are,
but they are also allowing the seventh
or eighth most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
The Colts have been middle of the pack.
The Patriots have struggled against wide receivers.
Then he gets the Titans, the Steelers again,
the Cowboys, the Browns, Jaguars, and Giants.
So it's a pretty good remaining schedule for Hollywood Brown,
and that's why I thought it was closer between him and McLaurin
than maybe we thought coming in.
No, it's a great schedule in terms of fantasy points allowed.
But I think when you look at the Ravens' schedule,
how many times are they going to be just blowing somebody out
and throwing 25 passes?
That's what happened against Philadelphia.
I could see a lot of these games being pretty close, though.
No, Adam?
Yes.
Two games against the Steelers should be competitive.
Titans should be competitive.
Maybe the Patriots.
We have to see what happens now.
It's the last four games before Week 17.
Dallas, Cleveland, Jacksonville Giants.
I could see those being problematic for Brown.
You're hoping for a big touchdown in one of those games
because he may not get over six targets.
Right, exactly.
Now, number five is interesting.
It's a three-person race.
Darius Slayton.
Darius Slayton's on pace for 67 catches,
1,083 yards, eight touchdowns on 117 targets.
That's a really good year,
especially for someone you drafted in like the 10th round,
9th round, whatever.
Deontay Johnson had 23 targets
in his first two games.
Deebo Samuel we just talked about.
So it's tough.
Sterling Shepard,
I don't think he's coming back this week.
I would guess week eight.
I don't know that it matters.
I don't know that it matters.
I mean, Slayton's been over
three catches twice this year.
He's just a touchdown guy.
And I don't know how much Shepard really impacts that.
No, it's true.
My thinking between Debo Samuel versus Slayton was,
do I want a Daniel Jones-led passing attack,
or do I want a wide receiver who is in a Kyle Shanahan system?
And that ultimately was the deciding factor.
I think I would...
You know, i actually dropped
slayton to activate debo off the ir a couple of weeks ago do you regret it no i don't like slayton
has he how many he said six games he's had 200 yard games what are his yard totals in the other
games like 40 50 i think he had one game with around 60 so no i don't really
regret it i think i would rather have debo and you said slayton ben yeah i just think the touchdowns
aren't going anywhere and i think debo is going to be inconsistent i think iuk is going to have
a few games where he's better than debo but i think it's a coin flip i think they're both in
the same range all right i hope you all drafted your two wide receivers and you're going to do it next
year too,
because they are good.
This is when a lot of receivers really break out and exceed their ADP.
This is from hardwood.
How early is too early to be trading or picking up players with playoff
strength of schedule in mind?
I think now is a great time to do it because we are six weeks into the season,
a month and a half in. And at this point, a, you should know what your team needs are. And B, you should have a pretty good feel for a player's role in their their offense. Now we can look at strength of schedule, which we've done for basically a lot of the players we've talked about so far today
to figure out, all right,
where do we want to take advantage?
Who has good playoff schedules?
You know, if I need a guy
for the next month or so,
if I'm two and four
and I just want a guy
for the next month
and then try and flip them again
after that now,
I think is the time to do so.
I don't think it's too early.
I think now is actually
the perfect time.
And I think it's a good time
to look at strength
of schedule in general.
I think it really depends, like Frank said,
on your team's composition.
What's your record?
I don't want to look towards the playoffs
if I'm 500.
I need to win now.
But strength of schedule in general,
Heath talks about it all the time.
You got to wait a few weeks
to see what these teams actually look like,
what the defenses actually look like.
And right now we have a good read
on a lot of defenses.
Here's a big issue though.
COVID.
How is that going to change things?
Are we going to have 18 weeks instead of 17 weeks?
It's definitely a possibility.
Are we going to have schedule shuffling?
You can't imagine we're not going to have any more games
get postponed rest of the season, right?
Especially with flu season coming up
and COVID is going to continue to spread, unfortunately.
It's going to cause a little bit of havoc. It's going to change the schedule. That's why I'm
not quite, it's not, it's not going to change the opponents that they play. It's just going to
change the order. So I'm probably not going to go as heavy on that kind of analysis as I usually do.
And that's usually a big thing for me. I like looking at the schedule grid. I like picking
out the matchups. And I did, I did today for the sake of this show, the teams that you need to
know about like David Montgomery, David Montgomery's last five games. And I'll give I did today for the sake of this show. The teams that you need to know about, like David Montgomery.
David Montgomery's last five games,
and I'll give you six in case you're playing a week 17.
Green Bay, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Green Bay.
These teams rank 31st, 29th, 32nd, 18th, 28th, and 31st against running backs.
It just, his schedule is so good at the end of the year.
Jonathan Taylor's upcoming schedule.
Seven of his next eight opponents
ranked 21st or worse against running backs.
Five of his next eight opponents ranked 29th or worse.
That's incredible.
So I have picked out a few players.
Aaron Jones, for what it's worth,
has Detroit, Carolina, and Tennessee
in the fantasy playoffs.
We lost Ben.
Ben will be back.
Bye, Ben.
James Robinson's schedule gets kind of tough.
Adam Thielen.
What do you think about this?
Adam Thielen's last five games,
Carolina is second against wide receivers.
Jacksonville is 14th.
Tampa Bay is fifth.
Chicago is fourth.
And the Saints are 19th, but they've got
Marshawn Lattimore. Should that
matter? That Adam Thielen has a really bad
stretch run
in terms of schedule?
It doesn't matter to me. I mean, the best
wide receivers are the best because they can excel
even in tough matchups.
And it has to creep into your mind
a little bit, but ultimately, I'm not going to sell
Adam Thielen just because of that,
unless I'm getting fair value for him.
I'm not just going to sell Adam Thielen
for the sake of selling him
because he has a tough schedule over his last five games.
But if I can get fair value,
like another fellow top five wide receiver,
top 10,
I think Thielen's probably in that five to eight range
rest of season in terms of wide receivers,
even with the emergence of Justin Jefferson.
But the Panthers have been really good.
I'm still a little skeptical that they are this good.
Jacksonville, I don't really worry about.
Tampa Bay, I do.
Chicago, yeah, I still think Thielen can be all right there.
And then at New Orleans, like a game on the fast track with I'm sure we'll have a high point total.
I'm not really worried about dealing in that spot.
James Connors got a pretty good schedule coming up,
Tennessee.
They they've been better last two weeks.
They've been really good against Devin Singletary and,
uh,
David Johnson.
They just faced.
They've been very good against the run last two weeks,
but so,
but it's overall kind of a bad run defense Baltimore.
They have twice.
That's not easy.
But other than that,
James Connors is going to phase Dallas, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Washington, Buffalo, and Cincinnati.
I mean, Washington, Buffalo, Cincinnati. Those are the fantasy playoff matchups as of now.
Weeks 14, yeah, I think that's 14, 15, 16. I think I included week 17 on here, right?
So Washington, Buffalo, Cincinnati for James Conner.
It's a good stretch run for him.
But the two running backs I would say that have
some possible buy low appeal
and a great schedule coming up
are David Montgomery and Jonathan Taylor.
Just keep in mind, schedules are going to change.
Ben's back.
Yeah, we're back.
And I agree.
I think the schedule should not be taken as seriously as it is every year. But you're not going to make trades based on the playoff weeks at this point because there may be an 18th week because that week 15 matchup may move up to week 12. So yes, I don't think you're making a trade base off of it, but it is always good to keep in the back of your mind if you need a tiebreaker. All right, JV or JW says,
Alexander Madison or Madison,
who's the damn fool that shot him?
I'm assuming that's a Hamilton reference
and a burr.
A burr.
Everybody remember the peanut butter commercial?
Yeah.
The milk commercial, right?
Now you don't remember that?
I was like 16 and I'm 17.
You guys don't remember that commercial? Got milk 16 and I'm 17, so. You guys don't remember that commercial?
Got milk commercial?
No?
Oh,
I know got milk.
I don't remember
that specific one.
Somebody was listening
to the radio
and there was a call,
a call-in contest
who shot Alexander Hamilton
and this guy knew the answer,
but he had like a mouthful
of peanut butter
and he couldn't reach his milk,
so he couldn't,
he was like,
hey,
burr.
It was really funny.
Anyway,
my question is, did we learn anything
from this Alexander Madison debacle?
I don't think we learned anything about Alexander Madison.
I think it's more so about the Falcons, actually,
and that we should take their run defense
a little bit more seriously.
And I know that seems ridiculous
because they're giving up a ton of points.
But a lot of the points the Falcons have given up
have either been to wide receivers,
to tight ends,
or to pass catching running backs.
In terms of on the ground,
they've actually been pretty damn good
entering this past week.
They were like 10th in run defense DVOA
and allowing 3.8 yards per carry to running backs.
So I think we have to put a little bit of respect
on the Falcons run defense. But with that being said, I think the fact that, I think we have to put a little bit of respect on the Falcons' run defense.
But with that being said,
I think the fact that...
I think he got game flowed out of this one.
They're playing from behind,
and ultimately,
there just wasn't enough opportunities
for Alexander Madison here.
Yeah.
And they had the ball for 20 minutes,
which is not good.
I think it's fine.
Look, it didn't work.
You had to pick him up.
It looked like a great opportunity.
Sometimes even great running backs have bad games. This could have happened to Dalvin Cook.
Saquon Barkley had, what was it, 15 carries for nine yards or something like that in week one.
You know, it happens. It's unfortunate. And you did the right thing by starting him.
And it stunk. And I'm sorry. We're going to take a quick break on fantasy football today. When we
come back, we'll talk about Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill
and who we'd rather have rest of season.
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Continues with two more.
I'm going to combine them here.
Sean said on Twitter,
Aaron Rodgers sucking versus a decent
defense. And Victor Tejada
said, is Ryan Tannehill
top five rest of season?
So first of all, who would you rather have rest of season?
Aaron Rodgers or Ryan Tannehill?
Ben's back. I would
take Ryan.
I'll take, man, that is
close.
Let's go with Aaron Rodgers.
Ben, how about you?
Rodgers or Tannehill?
Tannehill.
Oh, wow.
Okay.
It's Tannehill, and he's been more consistent than Rodgers not only this year, but last year as well.
So I'm really encouraged by Tannehill.
The question was top five.
I don't know.
I think there's more of like a top seven right now.
But I would, you could say that anyone
other than Russ, Emma Holmes, Tannehill is better than.
You could.
I mean, I would still take Josh Allen over him.
I think I would still take Lamar Jackson over him. I would take Watson over him too. I would take Watson Josh Allen over him. I think I would still take Lamar Jackson over him.
I would take Watson over him too.
I would take Watson over him.
Yep.
So that's five.
I think that range,
I think the highest I could put Tannehill is,
is seventh.
But I mean,
if you put Rogers ahead of him,
then,
then you probably have an eighth.
It's really close,
man.
It's really close between Tannehill and Rogers.
Like I don't want to make too much out of this.
And I understand the first four games that Rodgers performed in were really good matchups
and he was dreadful in week six there's no doubt about it I think the Bucks defense is is legit
and we have to give them the credit that they deserve and I looked at his final 10 remaining
games there's like three maybe four matchups that I'm actually worried about with Aaron Rodgers
and specifically his next two games are at Houston and against Minnesota we just
saw what Matt Ryan did against the Vikings defense as well so I think
Rodgers is at least going to be really good his next two games at San Francisco
in week nine they've been inconsistent but they should be healthier by then
hopefully Jacksonville in week 10 I like I'm not really worried about the
schedule for Aaron Rodgers so yeah I'll take him ahead of Tannehill,
but I think it's super, super close.
Schedule could be a nice tiebreaker
because Tannehill really does have a tough schedule
with Pittsburgh, Chicago, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Indianapolis.
Those are five of his next six games.
And meanwhile, Rodgers already faced Minnesota
and scored 38 points against them in week one.
So just some notes on this game from the Athletic.
Rodgers was sacked four times against the Bucs.
He was sacked three or four, I think four times total in his first three games.
Or maybe I think it was three times in his first four games.
And then he got sacked four times against the Bucs.
His 35.4 passer rating is the second lowest of his career
for a game that he did not leave because
of injury. And Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers both talked about it. The Packers had a terrible
week of practice. They had a bad week of practice and they got whooped. So bad game for them. And
the Bucs, the Bucs are allowing the fewest yards per play in the NFL. They have a really good
defense. So yeah, tough, tough game for Rodgers, but he should bounce back nicely.
Tannehill, if you want to compare this year to last year,
because last year seemed so fluky.
Well, he's throwing a lot more this year.
Last year, the Titans were last in the NFL
in pass attempts per game.
This year, they're 17th.
He was on pace.
In his starts last year,
he was on pace for 432 pass attempts. This year, he was on pace for 432 pass attempts.
This year, he's on pace for 554 pass attempts.
222 more.
Their defense hasn't been as good.
Yes, his schedule has been pretty easy.
His yards per attempt were just outrageous last year.
It was like over nine.
I think it was 9.2.
This year, he's 12th in yards per attempt.
So the only thing that seems really fluky
is once again, a very high touchdown rate
of about 7.5%.
Last year, it was 7.7%, something like that.
So yeah, I mean, that's it.
But that's an encouraging sign.
They're throwing more because they have to.
The yards per attempt is normal.
I mean, it's 12th in the NFL.
He's not getting sacked as much, which is great.
So it's less fluky than it was last year,
is I guess my point.
John O'Smith's playing great.
A.J. Brown's great.
I'm going to get hopefully something from Corey Davis.
I think we're all pretty much buying it from Ryan Tannehill.
Except that's damn schedule.
But he's been so good.
I don't know.
I can't see how you're sitting him.
All right.
Adam, you break the tie.
Tannehill or Rodgers?
I take Rodgers.
And I'll do it because of the schedule.
Honestly, that is the tiebreaker for me.
Interesting stats.
What do we got this week, Ben Schrager?
What stats stood out to you?
Tee Higgins.
He's the man.
Last shoot since week three,
eight targets a game, leading the team in pretty much every category. The ones that are really
notable, red zone targets and air yards leading the team. AJ Green actually played pretty well
this week and it didn't matter. Tee Higgins still had a great game. I'm all in on Tee Higgins. I
think he's a startable high-end wide receiver three flex option for the rest of the year.
How about Mike Evans?
You have him at 10% target share in three games with Chris Godwin.
Wow.
It's ugly.
It's really ugly.
And you're just hoping for a touchdown.
And we talked about him as a sell high last week and you can't sell them now.
And I'm, you're still starting him because he is going to get the red zone looks and
he can get some downfield looks.
But when Godwin's been on the field, he has not been getting the targets.
Yeah, and he has 14 yards in those three games with Godwin.
Two, two, and ten on ten targets.
So I'm wondering if he's more of a buy.
He's not going to be this uninvolved, Mike Evans.
No, but my problem with him as a buy is his name value is still there and he has had really big games this year so i struggle to find
a mike evans manager who's willing to just hand them off because of these poor games or because
of this trend but i'd be interested to see what you could send for him would you guys rather have
mike evans or a a Rams wide receiver?
Rams wide receivers.
Yeah, I think so.
But I think he's in that range.
I think he's more of a like mid wide receiver two
than the wide receiver one
he was drafted to be.
So you're taking Josh Reynolds
over Mike Evans?
And Van Jefferson.
Yeah, give me both.
Okay.
Who's a better by low? Juju or... Yeah, go me both. Okay. Who's a better by-low?
Juju or...
Yeah, go ahead.
Sorry, I was going to say,
do you think you could send Chase Claypool
for Mike Evans right now?
I think people might be that crazy about Chase Claypool.
I do think you could do that.
I don't...
If you try, and I would do it.
I think if 100 leagues sent that offer,
Claypool for Evans,
I think it would be accepted in like 30% of leagues.
I will take the over
given that a lot of the Mike Evans managers
need wins now
because they drafted him too early.
I don't agree.
Evans has scored in every game
and he has 200-yard games.
So he actually has had a pretty good year.
He said three games where he...
Ugh, just nothing.
No, I understand in terms of the yards,
but here are his PPR fantasy points.
7, 23, 14, 25, 15, 2.
So like weeks two through five,
those four games,
he was 10 or more in non-PPR every week,
and he was 14 or more in PPR every week.
So that's why it's hard to sell him
because of all the touchdowns.
But yeah, I think the fantasy manager was going,
geez, 14 yards in three games with Chris Godwin,
three games this year with 10 or fewer yards.
I need to get rid of Mike Evans.
I'm going to take Claypool.
You might be right about it.
I mean, it's possible Claypool's better.
I'm not going to just completely dismiss that.
But I think we're all saying that you should take Evans ahead of him, right?
I would.
If I can turn Claypool into Evans, I would.
All right, Frank, you got some stats.
Trey Burton, DeAndre Swift, Brandon Cooks, Travis Fulgham.
What do we got?
Yeah, so Trey Burton leads all Colts tight ends in routes, 65 routes,
and target share, 16% target share over
the past, oh, it was supposed to say three weeks, the past three weeks. He's been more involved than
both Jack Doyle and Mo Alleycox since Trey Burton has returned. Jack Doyle has 58 routes and just a
6% target share during that time. The Colts are on buy in week seven. It's kind of a similar
situation to like Robert Tanya. You can pick up Trey Burton throughout his buy and hold him
if you are really desperate for a tight end.
But I think there are a lot of people that are desperate for a tight end.
I know that I am in a few of my leagues as well.
So that's something I might actually look into doing
and just holding on to Trey Burton.
I like the way that they've been using him.
DeAndre Swift, I want to be excited about this.
And he was fantastic in week six,
but he played just 37% of the snaps in his breakout game.
And he had two other games where he also played around the same amount of
snaps this year,
37% in week four and 44% in week one.
It just so happens that they were playing with a lead.
So,
you know,
they ran a lot of plays and it seemed like he was playing a lot,
but it still turned out to just be 37% of the snaps.
So I hope that they don't go back to Adrian Peterson,
but it still wouldn't surprise me
if this is like a really frustrating
running back by committee moving forward.
Yeah, I mean, the other two running backs
had more receiving yards.
AP had more carries.
You hope they look at this and say,
wow, Swift was super efficient.
He was really good in the red zone,
but we don't know.
It's the Lions.
Matt Patricia just tries so hard
to be Bill Belichick, right?
And he's like, he's one of these guys where he's like, oh, I just tries so hard to be Bill Belichick, right? And he's
one of these guys where he's like,
I don't want defense to know what's coming. I'm going to
change it up this week. This week, I'm going to go to Kerryon Johnson.
I could just see him doing something like that.
I hope I'm wrong. And if I am wrong,
then you could have a potential RB2
the rest of the season in DeAndre Swift.
Well, look, I'm looking at the
Detroit Free Press right now, and the headline
of the story is, DeAndre Swift proves why he should be Detroit Lions' feature back going forward.
So everyone knows it.
And at one point, you've got to start looking to the future.
You're a team that's going nowhere.
And in my opinion, anyway,
they are not going to make the playoffs this year.
So stop with Adrian.
Yeah, I think everybody's on the same page here. Let's
just hope that Matt Patricia is on the same page as well. Um, okay. Anything on those wide receivers,
Frank, I'll just mention these last two quickly. Brandon cooks had a 17% target share in the first
four games of the season under bill O'Brien that has gone up to a 29% target share over the last
two weeks without him. So I would probably elevate Brandon cooks to a high end boom or bust wide
receiver three rest of season based on what we've seen the past couple of
weeks.
And then Travis Fulgham has a 26% target share over the last three games for
the Eagles and has run at least 10 slot routes in each of those games.
He is not the slot receiver that has been Greg Ward's job,
but I find it interesting that they're finding ways to get him involved in moving him around the field,
not just playing him on the outside. They're finding ways to get him involved in the slot
as well. I am not worried about Deshaun Jackson or Alshon Jeffrey or anyone else returning. I
think Travis Fulgham is their guy, and I do think that he's a wide receiver three moving forward.
So about Cooks, and this might be kind of relevant for Evans.
Don't forget, we had no offseason, right?
We had no preseason games.
We had a strange training camp.
You wonder these players in new situations,
and I bring up Evans with Tom Brady,
learning a new offense, right?
It just takes time.
Emmanuel Sanders talked about that with Drew Brees.
They just weren't on the same page early in the season.
Brandon Cooks, maybe he just wasn't on the same page as Deshaun Watson.
Maybe we're going to see better things going forward from the Patriots,
who were a mess this week because they had very limited practice time.
Just keep that in mind.
And we might see some better results midseason from these guys who changed teams
or changed coordinators or something like that. And I think that might be what we're seeing with Brandon
Cooks. I don't know how much it has to do with Bill O'Brien, but I'm fine with that narrative.
That works for me. Oh, it's always fun to throw Bob under the bus. I guess so. I guess so. All
right, guys. Good show today. Thank you very much. We got the waiver wire on Tuesday. Should be a fun
episode of your fantasy football today. Waiver Wire to get you ready for week seven.
We got two games tonight.
We'll recap them.
First thing in the morning, 3 a.m. the episode will drop.
Fantasy Football Today in five.
Follow and stream that podcast on Spotify or anywhere you listen.
And you'll get the instant analysis for those two games
plus a little Waver Wire talk for you.
For Ben Schrager, Frank Stample, I'm Adam Azer.
See you.