Fantasy Football Today - RB Tiers! Talent vs. Opportunity (07/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 13, 2021

Nominate us on PodcastAwards.com! https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup Where is the dropoff at RB? How many tiers do we get through before we're no longer excited about the position? That's what we start our show with before we get into Dave's hip hop debut and a comparison of our Scott Fish Bowl teams (7:10)! ... Let's get into Tier 1 (13:00) and Tier 2 (15:00) at RB. Which tier does Joe Mixon belong in (16:00)? Heath makes the case for Chris Carson in Tier 2 (20:15). Why is D'Andre Swift ahead of a couple of other second year RBs? (25:45) ... Moving on to tiers 3 and 4 (27:30), we debate the opportunities for Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis. Then we spend the rest of the show on Tier 5 (42:00) which includes guys like Javonte Williams and Raheem Mostert and then some late-round lottery picks which spurs much debate ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. We've got 15 running backs off the board in the first two rounds. We've got 19 running backs off the board in the first three rounds, according to current average draft position on NFC. And Tears Week continues here with running backs. Adam Azer with Dave Richard and Heath Cummings once again. Heath, though, is not really interested in talking about running backs. He wants to just talk about Scott Fishbowl. He must have a great team.

So we will be comparing our Scott Fishbowl teams. We're having a fishing contest, I guess. Comparing our teams through however many rounds we're at. What's up, guys? Good afternoon. I thought it fit with the theme of Tears Week, because when you hear about Dave and my team, you're going to have tears because yours is so bad. Yeah.

That's right. The audience will be in tears laughing at how bad my team is. You know, remember I told you on the previous show that I had a pick skipped? Yes, you? Yes. No, but you should know that I probably would have taken a third New York Giant with that pick. He was then taken after I missed the pick.

So it probably was a good thing. It saved me from having three Giants on my team. So when it skips a pick, you don't get to make that pick at all? You do. But by the time I was notified that I missed the pick, like five other players had been off the board.

I see. That's fair. Yeah. I'm glad you didn't just like straight up miss the pick. No, no, I got it. I was going to take Evan Ingram probably, but he was selected. Yeah, you don't want to do that. Okay, so let me ask you a tears question here. When do you see in your mind the first big drop-off at running back.

I will say the drop-off happens when you go into the fifth tier. I think there are four solid tiers, chock full of running backs that have potential of anywhere from 1,106 touchdowns to 2,015 touchdowns. And so some of the names here, so for you, it's like Chris Carson, Gaskin, ETN, Jacobs, Mike Davis, Kareem Hunt. That's the end of tier four? Okay.

And then after that, Michael Carter, Mostert carter most about 25 names for me how about you he's here's the thing because i'm looking at this from a like in terms of where people are drafted we're obviously going to take a bunch of running backs to start and so it doesn't seem like maybe there's a tier at the start but looking at it just in terms of ppr projections. I hear that. No, he doesn't like PPR. Just in terms of PPR projections. Like, there's two tiers in the first three picks. There's a bigger difference for me between Christian McCaffrey

and Alvin Kamara at number three than there is between Kamara and Kareem hunt at number 24 oh i yeah actually that kind of makes sense but isn't there isn't it like three tier isn't mcafree a tier that cook it yes that's what i'm saying like if i was and i i won't do this whenever i probably will actually just illustrate it tier one is Christian McCaffrey tier two is Dalvin cook then

we can get into tears like maybe we have like a super tier and soup the super tears and then we can call tier one see the other first round picks okay I like where I like where you're going with that Dave you you see him less dave dave

is so mad he's out of the picture yeah i've got things going on in my house right now so i missed 100 of what he just said oh he was just barking loudly you know yeah that's what my dog yeah sounds like a lot with my dog when there's a knock at the front door. I'm ready for the pandemic to be over, everybody. I'm ready to go back and start doing podcasts again in the office. I was under the impression that everybody in Florida thought the pandemic was over. Oh, boy. Okay, so anyway. That is not the case.

I don't know why. I kind of like the round five and beyond running backs, like rounds five through eight. Oh, good. So we're jumping into the running back dead zone area. That's not the entire group from rounds five through eight, but definitely in that round five range. And there are definitely running backs in round five through eight

that I'm not going to be a fan of. Well, I'm not saying I don't like everyone. But you just got to be patient with them. I just think the group in general is Javante Williams, Kareem Hunt, Miles Gaskin, James Robinson, Mike Davis. The bottom line is, in this ADP,

which is half PPR, Gaskin and Mike Davis are round five picks. In our drafts, they're usually round four picks. So that changes things quite a bit. Chase Edmonds, after the report we got last week, he's 67th and ADP Melvin Gordon, Trey Sermon,

Michael Carter, Raheem Mostert. And now we're all now we're pick 88 and it's Ronald Jones. Just that overall group. You know, you've got Davis and Gaskin. You've got Kareem hunt. You've got James Robinson,

Chase Edmonds, Michael Carter, Trey Sermon, Raheem Mostert, who's behind Trey Sermon in ADP. I don't know. He kind of feels like a good group, actually. But I may have felt that way about this group last year. I'm looking at ADP from last year, too. We can compare the two. But I don't know. I see some opportunity there. Well, the thing is is it kind of depends on whether you're a mike davis miles gaskin believer right it does it is it crazy to say i'm a believer in them in round five but not in round four is it that much we've just we've had this discussion i do think it's a little bit crazy yes um because i i don't think there's actually that much difference especially if you're talking about the end of round four and the beginning of round five. Now, we're not.

Their ADP has been more towards the end of round five. But yeah, I think there's a chance with Gaskin, Davis, Edmonds, and then there are some secondary backs or rookie backs that have a chance to emerge. There's the Buffalo situation. Maybe one of them is good. Yeah, I don't dislike it as much as everyone else seems to. All right, we'll get into those tiers in a moment.

So, all right, let's do it. Let's talk about our Scott Fishbowl team. But, Dave, I'm not sure if you're aware of this. You were on a vacation last week. Did you know that you became a hip-hop star over the last week? No, did not know. Well, here you go. I don't think the Bills are suddenly going to become a run team.

I think they're going to continue to lean on Josh Allen. I think Allen has learned how to throw an accurate football. We have got to make some type of music. Welcome to the show. Welcome to the show. I think Alan has learned how to throw an accurate football. That was awesome. Yeah. We need to clip that.

That was amazing. There you go. That's incredible. Yes. Let me look up the name of the listener who made that. Give him his credit. All right, Heath. What round are you in,

and who do you have on your team? I just made my round 12 and 13 picks. Do you want me to go by position? Let's go by position. Yeah, position. Yeah, do it. Okay, so my quarterback group, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Justin Fields.

Nice. My running backs are Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Zach Moss, and Devin Singletary. Oh, we have two of the same four running backs. I love it. All right. You've got the bills covered. My wide receivers are A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson,

Tyler Lockett, and Devontae Smith. Me oh my. Punting tight end? Tight end, I have Noah Fant and Blake Jorwin. Hey, alright. That's pretty good. That's a really good team. Way to go. Thanks. That's really the only reason I wanted to do this.

Yeah, that is a really good team. Your receivers kick my receivers' butts. I've got better tight end. I think I've got better quarterbacks. Running backs are interesting. All right, here we go. So I had the one-on-one. I took Mahomes.

Just figured a safe, solid pick, knowing that I would take chances with running backs later on. And then Eckler in round two. My running backs, my quarterbacks, I'm going to do it the same way Heath did it. Mahomes, Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo. So only two teams worth of quarterbacks,

but I'm covered through at least the first six weeks of the season. Running backs, Eckler, Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, James Robinson, Daryl Williams. I like to think that I've got the Chiefs passing game and running game covered quite a bit. That's usually a good thing for fantasy. My receivers are risky.

McLaurin, Claypool, Jamar Chase, Marquise Brown, Elijah Moore, Jalen Rager, tight ends. And this is where I definitely got Heath beat. Hawkinson, Irv Smith, Gronk. Probably have Heath beat. I'm envious of heath's receivers for sure yeah he's received well i think a lot of people in scott fishbowl don't really value wide receiver that much i yeah i i took aj brown at the end of the fourth round and jeff justin jefferson in the fifth yeah that's unbelievable man that's unbelievable what saved my bacon was that um i didn't take a second quarterback until round eight and i got car at the end of round eight and fields the beginning of round nine

i agree that's they went earlier than that in most drafts all right i have brady rothlisberger and daniel jones dalvin cook who was the my my first pick and the fourth overall pick. Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Zach Moss, and Alexander Madison. McLaurin, Galladay, Pittman, and Hilton. Friendship

strategy. Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz. So when Zach Ertz gets traded to Buffalo, you're going to really like this team. I would like it a lot more if he got traded to Indianapolis. Then you've got all the Colts. So when Zacherts gets traded to Buffalo, you're going to really like this team. I would like it a lot more if he got traded to Indianapolis. Then you've got all the Colts. I'm not going to rank Zacherts very high if he goes to Buffalo. They are dying to get production from their tight end.

They could not have spoken about it more. They're lamenting how Travis Kelsey, oh, we've got to have that kind of player. We've got to have production from the tight end spot. It's a big year for Dawson Knox. They really, really want it. So I would be pretty interested. Where would you rather see him?

You'd rather see him go to the Colts. How about you, Dave? I don't know if I'd like him to go to the Colts. I think it would make sense if he goes to the Colts, and he'd probably be productive there. But they like to use multiple tight ends. They like to use everybody that they have. And I'd be worried about the values of those other pass catchers in Indianapolis dropping.

And I'd be worried about it, too, if we went to Buffalo. So I think I would rather prefer that the Indianapolis receivers see their values dip a little rather than Buffalo's receivers and mainly Diggs. Oh, it's not going to dip Stefan Diggs' value. I hope not, but God forbid it ruins his touchdown potential.

I don't think Zach Ertz is really that great of a player anymore. He can't separate from single coverage. I don't think defenses fear him at all. So I don't know if he'd even be that good no matter where he went. Buffalo, Indy, wherever. I just like the connection in Indy with the former coach and the former quarterback and not very much competition from the wide receivers for targets. All right. Well, we like that you like our podcast. And if you want to show us some support, please nominate us in the sports category for the People's Choice

Podcast Awards. We really appreciate everything that our listeners do for us. It means a lot to have you as part of our family, honestly. And we'd love your help if you nominate us. We need enough nominations to advance to the final round. To nominate Fantasy Football today, go to podcastawards.com slash app slash sign up, and then toggle down to the sports category. We're going to include the link. Do you have any pet rooster, Dave? We're going to include the link to Podcast Awards at the top of the episode description. So podcastawards.com slash app slash sign up. Please nominate us in the sports category.

And into the running back tiers. Here we go. So you missed this whole interaction, Dave, but tier one could be McCaffrey. Tier two could be Cook by themselves. But if they aren't, what is the first tier at running back, Dave? I've got a big first tier. These are guys that I think are worthy of first-round picks.

They're ranked as how I would take them, of course. McCaffrey and Cook are at the top for me in PPR. It's different in non-PPR. After those two, it's Kamara, Henry, Taylor, Saquon, Aaron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, and Austin Eckler. I think all of them are worthy of being first-round picks.

I think you can make the case for all of them to come in to at least 1,800 total yards, if not 2,200 total yards, and at least 10 touchdowns for each one of them. I think there's a path for every single one, and that's why they merit a first-round pick. And that is in PPR, McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara, Henry, Taylor, Barkley, Aaron Jones, Zeke, and Eckler.

And that's in PPR. In non-PPR, it's Kamara, Henry, Cook, Taylor, Kamara, fifth behind Henry, Cook, and Taylor, fifth behind Henry Cook and Taylor and obviously McCaffrey. Then Barkley, Nick Chubb gets in there in non-PPR. Zeke, Aaron Jones. And then you've got Cam Akers and Najee Harris in your tier one round one.

How many running backs is that? 10? 11. 11? Okay. I think 11 of the first 12 picks in a non PPR draft should be a running back. Um, okay.

Heath, do you see it differently? Well, yeah. I mean, I, I would say if like I would put McCaffrey in his own tier and I think I have a pretty big difference between Dalvin and everybody else,

but the other guy, it is a pretty big tier after that. I've got Camara Jones, Henry Eckler, Elliot mix, and Taylor a pretty big tier after that. I've got Kamara, Jones, Henry, Eckler, Elliott, Mixon, Taylor, and Barkley. All in that order in one tier. Those are the same names, right? I mean, I kind of missed them all as you were going through. I didn't put Akers, Swift, or Chubbs in there.

But they're in the next tier. Swift was not. Or Najee. It was Najee, not Swift. I don't think you had Najee in there either. But that was only in non-PPR for Dave with Chubb, Akers, and Harris. It was not in. I don't think he had Najee in there either, Heath. But that was only in non-PPR for Dave with Chubb, Akers, and Harris. It was not in full PPR.

And that's what you were giving, right? Full PPR? Heath? Yes. Okay. Sorry. Okay, then what's our second tier? I think...

I hate to do this to the non-PPR people, but if I jump around between the two formats, they're just going to be saying the same names. It's going to be very confusing. So we're going to stick with full PPR. Dave, your second PP, your second tier in full PPR,

six names, Chubb, acres, Harris, Mixon, Gibson, and Swift. These are all running backs that I think are worth around to pick in PPR.

And you almost separated them around. Yeah, almost exactly the same guys for me, except there was one name I had in tier one that Dave didn't, I found out by listening to that list. It was Nixon. But I have the same number. All the guys Dave said, Akers, Swift, Harris, Gibson, I also put Carson in that tier there as

well okay so let's have a little joe mixon debate heath you've got him in tier one dave in tier two heath go ahead yeah i just i think it's going to be a bingles team that probably scores as many touchdowns as any that mixon has played on so his like that's one of the things that's kept him from being an elite tier one running back is a lack of elite touchdown scoring. He'll have a better chance at that this year. And he has a better chance at the targets required because Geo is finally gone.

I've been as big of a Team Geo guy as there is. And he was a major problem for Mixon over the last three years. If Mixon stays healthy, I think he's a top 10 running back. Sure. But we also, we have talked. If Mixon stays healthy, I think he's a top 10 running back. Sure. But we also, we have talked up Joe Mixon

every single year. I think that's the difference. Because the past three years, I haven't. I've said, I don't think he's a first round running back. Geo. Geo.

Geo. And so now Geo is gone. And so now I'm, I have no buyer's remorse with Joe Mixon. I could see. I know they're talking about using Mixon more, and I agree. I think they've got no choice but to use him more in passing situations. But I know that they like Samaj P. Ryan.

Chris Evans is an interesting running back that they drafted. He could be a passing downs guy for them. And I'm a little bit worried about two things one i'm a little bit worried about them running mixing into the ground or they i'm worried about them being worried about running mixing into the ground and giving him too much work and wanting him to stay upright because of what happened last year so maybe they do take a little bit of work away from him but i I still bet he's the two minute drill running back, which is what Gio was last year.

I bet he earns that role this year. The only thing I'm worried about is that they just realize, Hey, Burrow is our offense. We've got this great rookie receiver. We've got another second year receiver. Who's awesome and in great shape. We've got Tyler Boyd.

Who's a good veteran. We're going to let this thing rest on Burrow. And so maybe there won't be as many weeks where Mixon's in that 20-touch range, and he could be closer to 15. And then last year, everybody remembers how slow of a start he got off to. And then he had that Jacksonville game, and he was amazing. He was a monster. But that was Jacksonville.

This is still a team that's playing in the same division as Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland. We think the Browns defense is going to be better. It is not an easy schedule. I talked about that on Monday's podcast. I'm a little worried about Joe Mixon reaching the upside that some people are painting for him. That's why he's in my second tier. He's really had an interesting career. It's easy to forget at this point is 2018 was terrific. That was the second season. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry.

He was on pace for over 1300 rushing yards and 49 catches. And that was with geo, you know, I don't know if geo played a full season, but still he was on pace for 49 catches and 338 yards. You're talking about like a 1700 yard700-yard season on pace for that, averaging over 100 yards per game. Let's just say that.

That was terrific. 2019, his first eight games stunk. His second eight games were great, but I believe he led the NFL in carries in that stretch, so that helped him. And then 2020, you just talked about it. It was basically one good game. So I don't really know.

I know there are a lot of people, if you go on Twitter and follow a bunch of fantasy football analysts, it seems like there's someone always posting about how great Joe Mixon is and they need to give him the ball. But I don't know. We just haven't really seen...

We have seen it, but we've also seen a lot of bad. So I don't really get it with him. Yeah. Like, I think... Obviously, last year he played six games, we've also seen a lot of bad, so I don't really get it with him. Yeah. I like, I think obviously last year he played six games, so it's hard to take too much from that.

The two prior years he was, I mean, he was basically Chris Carson, which I think is a, a compliment, but yeah. Um, but he's a borderline number one running back while sharing with geo. And I don't think he's going to share

as much as he did with Geo. So Dave, how come you don't have Chris Carson in your second tier, which I think would be probably the norm. So Heath will talk about why he does have him. But why do you not have Carson in your second tier? I'm nervous about him regaining the form that we saw more than from last year. His track record's fine.

His short yardage goal line work is fine. I'm worried about the wear and tear. I'm worried about the workload. And his carries per game took a huge hit last year. He lost seven carries per game. He's had just four of 12 with 15 plus carries and seven with 15 plus touches. That was just last year. And he, he, he's been like a 50% consistent running back in fantasy. I think he's good enough to call a number two fantasy running back. I just can list a bunch of other running backs.

I think of a chance to do better than 15 plus fantasy points in 50% of the games. It's weird that he only gets 15 fantasy points in 50% of the games. It's weird that he only gets 15 fantasy points in 50% of the games because he's basically averaged 15 fantasy points per game each of the last three. Very close to it. That's true. And he's like maybe inconsistent on a weekly basis, but every year he finishes the top 12 to 15 running back on a per game basis.

And I don't think Rashad Penny is any good. And DJ Dallas didn't look like anything special. And Alex Collins is the other competition. So I, I think you're going to see him be a feature back as much as Seattle is going to have one. And the carries were down a little bit last year, but I mean,

it's partially because he had a game where he had five carries and only played 18% of the snaps. And his first game back, he only had eight. He basically averaged 16 touches, 17 touches a game at the end of the year and then had 17 in the playoffs. So I just, I think there's not really much reason to think Chris Carson's going to be anything other than what he's been each of the last three years, which is a high-end number two, borderline number one running back.

Question, though, because you're right. He's in the Robert Woods range. Remember, I gave that stat a few weeks ago. Robert Woods has never finished lower than wide receiver 20, but never higher than—I don't know. He's been basically 10 to 20 or something like that. Carson is right. He's in that range. In non-PPR, I think he's been a top 14 per game.

In full PPR, top 16 per game, three years in a row. But if you're taking him, and you don't have to take him in the second round. I think we all love him at the end of the third round, right? No. Oh, no? Okay. No, I'm round four. Okay.

Heath and I probably love Carson at the end of the third round. But are you worried, Heath, that you might be passing up on someone who has big upside, season-changing upside for a safe, reliable Chris Carson? Yeah. This is something that we talk about a lot

throughout the offseason. There are guys who have never done what Chris Carson has done. They're the mystery bucks. They could be anything. They could even be Chris Carson. Or they who have never done what Chris Carson has done. They're the mystery bucks. They could be anything. They could even be Chris Carson. Or they could be much better than Chris Carson. Or they could be much worse, again,

like they were in the past. So I just, like, yes, there are probably guys, although by ADP, I don't think there's probably anyone going behind Chris Carson, who I think definitely has more upside than him. I don't, what do we think Chris Carson's upside is?

Yeah. Like RB 12. Right. So the best Chris Carson's ever done is the best Chris Carson could do, but that's a good question. Him could be better than ever. Do you think he has more upside than, than what he has been?

Yeah. I mean the, the, the year he had in 2019, he missed a game, had 1500 total yards and only scored nine touchdowns. He also had an expanded role in the passing game last year. So maybe if he stays healthy, then maybe you could have a surprisingly great year.

He's another Seahawk that just got off to an amazing start last year. Go back and look at his first five games from last year. He averaged almost 20 PPR points per game. And then he got hurt. And then he had some good games toward the end of the year. But if you look at weeks 15 through 17, I think it was no better than 10 PPR points in any of those games. Well, he played Washington and the Rams and the 49ers.

And one of them was a week 17 game. But yeah. If you look at his last five regular season games, 16 touches, 15 touches, 17, 19, and 13 touches for Chris Carson. You know, that's not bad. You take your chances with that. It's not 20

touches, but it's probably about 16, 17 a game. That week 17 game is really throwing it off. All right. Anyway, I think we... Okay, that's Chris Carson. Let's move on. Why Deion... How many 100-yard rushing games did he have last year?

Probably zero. How many 80-yard rushing games did he have last year? 80 on the nose once. And he had three 70-yard games. But you have to look at total yards, you know? You can. How many 100-total yard games did he have last year? Three.

Three and a 98 yard game. So almost four. Okay. Is that good? Bad? Out of really 11 games. That's pretty good. It's not even half.

Yeah, but he's not a first round pick. He's not even a second round pick. Well, I thought he was making the argument that he would be a third-round pick. Yeah. I think we can find other running backs in round three that can be more consistent than that.

There are guys that you could hope will be. Yeah, I do. There are not guys who have been. That's why he's in the fourth tier. Okay. Why DeAndre Swift for you guys ahead of Edward Z. Lair and J.K. Dobbins? For me, it comes down to the receptions.

I don't think I can take him ahead of those guys in non-PPR, but I view him as a running back who can be used similarly to Austin Eckler. And I bring up Eckler because that's the running back that Anthony Lynn had for several seasons in LA, and he was amazing catching the ball out of the backfield.

And I know that Jamal Williams has good hands as well, but Swift proved last year that he could handle that role on top of other roles. He was good in short yardage situations. He could handle a decent-sized workload. And we're going to poo-poo the Lions offense and really the whole Lions team all preseason long. But the one thing they've got, the one thing they've got is an offensive line. They've got a big O-line, and I suspect that

they're going to lean on that offensive line quite a bit. So that combined with the fact that I know that Swift can rack up those targets and receptions when the Lions are playing from behind and still get that short yardage work, it makes me interested in him, period. But I've said it before. I think there's 70 catches on the table for him in this offense. And that puts him in this group in PPR. Dave, was that the silver and blue something that you were seeing? That's right. Yes. Okay. That's right. Yes.

Okay. That suffices for that. A one-win wonder. So let's get our next tier here. For Dave, it does have Dobbins and Edwards there. It's CEH tier three in PPR for Dave. CEH, J.K. Dobbins, David Montgomery, and Miles Sanders. Such disrespect for Chris Carson.

He's in the next tier. Heath, who's in your next tier? Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Mike Davis, Clyde Edwards-Solaire, J.K. Dobbins, and Miles Gaskell. Okay, so we got it. You've got T.H. and Dobbins behind those guys. But they're in the same tier, so really we should just focus on the tiers here because it's Mike Davis, Miles Sanders, and Josh Jacobs, I think.

Those were the three names. And obviously Carson we've already debated. So yeah, Gaskin, Davis, and Jacobs that Heath has in the same tier as Edward Ziller, Dobbins, Montgomery, and Sanders. Dave just has Edward Ziller, Dobbins, Montgomery, and Sanders. He has Gaskin, Jacobs, and Davis in the next tier. Dave. Along with ETN and Kareem Hunt and PPR.

And Carson, yeah. And Carson. All right, so what is it that separates to you Edward Ziller, Dobbins, Montgomery, and Sanders from Gaskin, Jacobs, and Mike Davis? Upside. The chance to have 1,500 total yards, 10 touchdowns, and 50 catches.

Now, I don't think Dobbins. I don't think we can look at Dobbins. And I'm not sure we can look at Sanders anymore and say that about the catches. But I think that they, all four of these running backs, have potential to come through in a big way. And Edwards-Alaire, we kind of saw it at the beginning of last year. And then theHilaire, we kind of saw it at the beginning

of last year. And then the team went and got Le'Veon Bell and they really limited just how much Edwards-Hilaire did for them. And then he got hurt. The offensive line was a mess. Now all that's been flipped around. Edwards-Hilaire has a good offensive line. There is no Le'Veon Bell. Daryl Williams and Jarek McKinnon are there. McKinnon profiles as if he makes the team a third down back, and Williams will be there to kind of pitch in here and there. I think Edwards-Hilaire can still be the main guy, and I think he could do better behind that improved offensive line. So I'm kind of encouraged by Edwards-Hilaire, and I don't mind taking him in that round three, four range. And I'm hoping that Dobbins catches more passes.

I don't think it'll be much more, but talent's amazing. He was definitely touchdown reliant toward the end of last year. Given the strengths of this Ravens offense, it wouldn't surprise me if he scored in 11 of 17 games this coming season and had a bunch of breakaway runs. So you kind of have to look at Dobbins as more of like, I'm taking him because he's in a run first offense and because he's an amazing talent and not necessarily lean on, well, I know he's going to get 18 touches per game,

or I believe he's going to see five targets a game. I don't think it's going to work that way with him. I think he's just going to have a lot of explosive plays and a lot of opportunities to score. He won't score every single touchdown on the ground for the Ravens. We know that Edwards is there, Jackson's there, but I think Dobbins does have that type of upside. Montgomery, I just, I keep going back to him

as a running back who does have potential to get the volume that we're looking for. He's definitely the goal line guy for Chicago. He averaged four and a half targets per game before he went on his big run at the end of the year and during his big run at the end of the year. So I'm comfortable projecting for that. Why? But that was without Tariq Cohen. I don't know if Tariq Cohen's ready to go. And I'm not sure they're going to put Cohen in a position to touch the ball enough to take four and a half targets per game. Well, I'm not saying he's going to have zero targets,

David Montgomery, but I think... No, he had more than zero. No, I'm not saying that Tariq Cohen is going to get all four and a half, but I'm just saying he figures to be a factor. Cohen would take it away from other backs. Or other players, I should say. Not necessarily even other backs. All right, all right.

Let me get Heath in there. Heath, do you agree that Gaskin, Davis, and Jacobs don't have the upside of Edward Ziller, Dobbins, Montgomery, and Sanders? No, especially in PPR. I don't with Dobbins. And I want to be clear. Like, talent-wise, I think Dobbins deserves to be in a different tier than this. Non-PPR-wise, Dobbins deserves to be in a different tier than this. Non-PPR-wise, Dobbins deserves to be in a different tier than this.

But I don't want to bet on him having a Mark Ingram-type efficiency in 2019. I think that's what he needs to have top 12 upside in full PPR. I think the most likely upside for him is right around running back 15 in full PPR. We've talked about Gaskin and Davis so much in this regard, but we use these six-game sample sizes for Clyde at the beginning of the year, for Swift and Akers and Taylor at the end of the year. And Gaskin and Davis both had stretches that were every bit, if not as good. Davis had a six-game stretch where he was on pace for 1,400 yards,

10 touchdowns, and 80 catches. Gaskin had a seven- or eight-game stretch where he averaged 100 total yards per game. And their current teams have supplied very little in the way of competition for touches. I think Tariq Cohen is a bigger threat than Kadri Olsen is. Or Hawkins, Javion Hawkins, right? Yeah.

Yeah. Or Cordero Patterson. Now, maybe they'll go add somebody that's a bigger threat than Tariq Cohen, but I think what Davis did last year behind an offensive line that's going to be worse than the one he plays behind this year. Gaskin probably last year behind an offensive line that's going to be worse than the one he played behind this year for a differentin probably last year behind an offensive line is going to be worse than the one he played behind this year for a different reason, just because they've had a year

to mature and grow together. The Dolphins line will be better. Right, yeah, better than it was last year. I think the Falcons line will be better than what the Panthers line was last year. Davis has some of the comparisons to what we can look at his efficiency

from last year and say he was bad like we did with david montgomery the year before but then we also have the missed tackles and the elusiveness that says actually mike davis was good and i just think there's a chance that if this falcons offensive line is decent it's not going to be as run heavy as it was with the titans and arthur smith but i think arthur sm Smith's probably more run heavy than Dirk Cutter was. And so there's a real chance. I think for 1400 yards for Mike Davis, man,

I think so much has to work out for Mike Davis to, to hit that type of a number. And I, I I'm not ready to say that Arthur Smith is going to be that much more focused on running the football than Dirk Cutter was. Cutter definitely, I mean, Cutter had reasons to get away from the run last year. He had nothing. He would have killed that Mike Davis in his backfield last year. I think Cutter historically is one of the most pass-heavy coordinators in football.

Sure. But he's also found running backs that he's leaned on and thrown to as well. And I don't think he had anything. I think he kind of quit on the running back room that he had in Atlanta last year. And I can't blame him for it. They weren't very good. And obviously, that's a group that the Falcons coaching staff, the new Falcons coaching staff, didn't feel great about either because they moved on from Ido.

Brian Hill's on a different team. They brought in Mike Davis. They brought in Cordell Patterson. They brought in two rookie running backs. So they're refreshing that room as well. Davis has the opportunity. The thing that scares me is that he's 28 years old. He's coming off a career year that wasn't that great of a year. He had a decent amount of work. Those first three games were outstanding. But you separate the first three games of his 2020 from the last 10.

His PPR points were cut more than half. His target rate was down a huge amount. His efficiency went way down. It looked to me like unless he was playing significantly hurt, he wasn't nearly as good. And I think his fantasy managers from last year will remember, oh, he was awesome for those first three games that he started in place of McCaffrey.

And then he just really wasn't that good. His matchups were tougher, Dave. His matchups were a lot tougher. And his workload went down. And maybe that was just a byproduct of the Panthers realizing that they needed to throw more and that they did throw more. I'm not sure. But I'm pretty sure the Falcons are going to be in a lot of situations this year where they're going to want to or have to throw

because their defense isn't that good and i'm not i'm not ready to guarantee that mike davis is going to be dominant with the touches and the playing time 70 of the playing time i don't know if he's necessarily going to get that there but this is a tier where we don't know that like this, like we don't, what tier number are we on? Because I thought we were on the third tier and on Dobbins, Clyde Montgomery. Oh my God.

But to me, it's a no brainer that those guys are going to be in a much better position than Davis. And I think it's a no brainer that those guys are better players than Davis. For sure. Dobbins is probably going to play 45 to to 50% of the snaps, though. No, I bet he plays.

Well, I don't think he's going to play 70% of the snaps either. I think that's fair to say. But I think he'll be way more efficient than Mike Davis. I bet he gets more touchdown opportunities than Davis, too. I think if Davis were a better player, you'd have him in a different tier. Yeah, not to mention younger. If Davis were a better player,'d have him in a different tier yeah not to mention younger if davis were a better player he wouldn't be getting this first opportunity to be a lead back week one for a team at 28 years of age but i'm not yeah but yeah i just don't know that the opportunity

is that much different i just think that you don't have as much confidence in him delivering no i don't have that that's the key non-p. It can't be pure. But I think Davis probably catches 50 to 60 more passes than Dobbins. He averaged 8.3 targets per game in the first three games of 2020. This is after McCaffrey got hurt. And in his last 10, and we're taking out the game

where McCaffrey came back and got hurt and left, 3.7 targets per game. I know. Cut in more than half. Yeah. It just... Was that because they had a better option in Curtis Samuel and that

doesn't necessarily exist in, uh, in Atlanta. No, I'm just not sure. Um, I mean, like a,

a behind the line of scrimmage option. Yeah. Cordero Patterson, that guy, could he be that guy? I don't know. I know we don't want to think, let's go on. I don't think he's under

targets, but... Dave's fourth tier, and this is probably the last tier. This is the question I asked at the start of the show. The last tier before there's a big drop-off. Carson, Gaskin, ETN, Jacobs, Mike Davis, Kareem Hunt. You already

know that Heath has Carson, Jacobs, and Davis. Oh, yeah. Carson, Gaskin, Jacobs, and Davis. Four of the six players in this tier of Dave's higher. So, Heath, what does this tier look like for you? I guess I would go a pretty short tier. Hunt, ETN, and Edmonds.

Okay. Edmonds moves up there. I think these are probably the part-time player tier. The part-time players that have immense upside. If things go their way, if a teammate gets hurt. Just those three players, Etienne Hunt and

Chase Edmonds? I mean, we could say that about other running backs, but these guys have... I mean, if Nick Chubb ceased to exist, Kareem Hunt and Heath will attest to this, would be in the first tier no problem. If Jamesb ceased to exist, Kareem Hunt and Heath will attest to this, would be in the first tier, no problem. If James Robinson ceased to exist,

ETN would probably be in no farther down than the third tier. It's not the second tier. And if James Conner didn't exist, Edmonds would be at least one tier higher. Like, if it's clearly Chase Edmonds getting all the work in Arizona, man, sign me up for that. He'd be at least one tier higher. Okay, so this, you know, 24-ish running backs,

how many of them do you want on your team? At the point that we're in round five and six here, how many of them do you want on your team at this point? How many running backs overall do I want? No, from tier one through tier four, wherever we're at now. So I'm through six rounds. How many running backs would I like to have on my team?

Three, at least. And I might have done it with my first three picks. What did you say, Heath? I'm agnostic. What is with this agnostic thing? You're the third analyst to say that on this show in the last week. I didn't hear the first two say it, but I'm sorry. I could

try to think of a different word. Is that like a new thing in the fantasy industry? It depends on how willing to commit. He's noncommittal. Yeah. Okay. I could envision a situation where I had a team with zero of these running backs, and I really, really liked it.

All right, we can take a break then. Before we take a break, I do want to remind you that tonight, Tuesday night, we're having some fun. We're playing poker and talking football. What could be better? I'm going to try to eat an unhealthy snack while we do this. It just feels like I need to bring something like Cheetos to the poker football talk. But join us on our YouTube channel,

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Ask us some football questions. Subscribe to our channel and we will see you on YouTube tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern. All right, taking a break and talking about the Raheem Mosterts, Michael Carters, James Robinsons of the world, and then beyond, the Devin Singletaries, the Giovanni Bernards, the Naeem Hineses of the world. We'll be right back. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference.

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Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Welcome back to the running back tiers. We've gone through four tiers, basically, about 25 running backs or so. We're into maybe round seven or so in average draft position. And these are our point per reception, PPR tiers. Dave's fifth tier. Go for it.

Michael Carter, Raheem Mostert, James Robinson, Javante Williams, Chase Edmonds is in this tier for me. And Leonard Fournette brings up the rear. So a lot of running backs, most of these running backs, I think we can look at and confidently say they're going to share. But again, perfect world where a guy on their team goes on vacation and decides to retire. They're going to jump up a tier or two.

Or if a veteran, you know, in the case of Denver, Melvin Gordon gets cut, doesn't make the team. Well, the rocket ship will go off for Javante Williams in a big way. But all these things can also happen in season where Melvin Gordon gets hurt or Trey Sermon doesn't meet expectations early on and Raheem Mostert takes off, or same thing with ETN, and that helps James Robinson. All these guys, you could look at them and say, all right, if one thing goes their way,

they've got a path to being, at worst, a number two fantasy running back that you'd start against anybody every single week. Okay, Heath, so it was Carter, Mostert, James Robinson, Javante Williams, Chase Edmonds, Leonard Fournette. every single week okay he so it was carter mostert james robinson giovante williams chase admins leonard fournette this is the place where rankings and projections really kind of diverge because like if i'm just telling you how i have these guys projected it's as things are in their current situations and it's that doesn't really emphasize upside enough

once you're past the top 25 or 30. But I have Mostert as the very next player in the projections, followed by Jamal Williams, Kenyon Drake, David Johnson, and Melvin Gordon would be my next four. Okay, but you said Jamal Williams. Yes. But that's not how you're drafting it, right? Well, it would be silly to draft Jamal Williams in round seven when he's

available in round nine. Right. Like you should draft based on our rankings. If you know that ADP says you can get them two rounds later. So, okay. But your day of your tier makes sense. And Carter,

Mostert, Robinson, Javante, Williams, Chase Edmonds, Leonard Fournette. Yeah. These are my round seven

targets one thing goes right and and it could be i think i think there's it's notable the names that are missing from that tier like who that aren't in there uh damian harris yeah you'd think that harris would be in there for me after how i went hog wild for him last year, right? Well, and it seems like he's getting more and more positive pub. There's lots of talk that he's just going to be the guy. I've tried to kind of boost him up a little bit more. I think this is a spot where you could find...

Did you say Trey Sermon? I did not. He's in the next tier. Trey Sermon and then the Buffalo running backs as well. And I've got Moss in the next tier. So what is it about Carter, Mostert, Robinson, Javante, Edmonds, and Fournette that makes them in a tier above James Conner,

David Johnson, Trey Sermon, Melvin Gordon, Zach Moss, and Kenyon Drake? I feel like they... I feel like fantasy managers can be a little more confident in those players starting them, at least in the beginning of the season. And I also think fantasy managers can look at it, especially in the case of the rookies, as guys that if you have to start them early on in the year, okay, you'll do it. But by Halloween, they could be in a position where you'll be glad you took them in round seven. Okay.

All right. So you're tier eight. I don't know. Heath heath you want to give tears or do you want to just chime in no i think i think it's instructive because the next like if we want to do another tier i've got something like 16 running backs within 15 points of each other at this point so like in a projections tier system you're you can put those guys in the same tier, and then you're sorting them in for drafting by both ADP and what you perceive their upside to be. Which players do you tend to gravitate toward? Well, I think the Singletary is somebody that falls so far that I end up with him a lot. I've actually got Damian Harris in the next tier at the very top of it. Trey Sermon is in there. Zach Moss is in there.

This is where I have Carter and Javante Williams. I just, like those two, I don't know that they have 15 touch per game upside. They didn't, like, I'm always leery of guys that were part-time backs in college going into the NFL and becoming full-time backs, especially for Carter on a team that I just don't think is going to be very good either.

Probably depend on his passing downs role if he can get some cheap fantasy points in that regard. That would help in PPR, yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I think he can get it. I think he can catch a lot of passes. Why?

A lot being like 40. He's a terrible pass blocker. You've got Leonard Fournette two tiers ahead of Ronald Jones. I do. I just think that Fournette gets the first crack at it. And again, it's flexible.

We don't know what's going to happen in training camp and who's going to look better. Who runs with the ones when the ones play in the preseason if the ones play in the preseason but leonard fournette end of the year really strong for the bucks and he can line up back there and the bucks can run any play i don't think they're confident enough in ronald jones to run a play where he's running a route or blocking i don't think i don't think they're confident enough in Ronald Jones to run a play where he's running a route or blocking. I don't think they're going to put him in that position anymore. And that means that that's a tell for the defense.

And teams don't like giving tells to the defense. And see, I've got those two in what would be this next monster tier, but I don't have them. They're separated by two spots in my projections, the guy directly behind them is geo bernard and that's the one i think that determines if either of them can be an exciting fantasy player because if geo bernard was a tom brady go get this guy i like what he does in the passing game and leonard fournette and ronald jones are taking turns at bruce arian's doghouse then you just don't want a tampa bay back. Couldn't there be a situation that plays out where Gio becomes the lead back for the Bucs and it wouldn't surprise you at all, Heath?

I think you could certainly see Gio, not the lead back, no. Oh, I think it could happen. You could see Gio as the James White. Gio as the best back. Yes, yes, yes. I think that's where he starts. I think he's the James White,

and maybe he does end up being the best in PPR. But if Fournette stinks, and Jones can't play on third downs, and Gio, we've seen it from him before in the past when he gets opportunities to start, he's good. Okay. We sure as hell didn't see it last year when they were going with Samaj P. Ryan over him.

Ronald Jones, when he gets the opportunity, he's good. He was last year, yeah. Yeah, damn good. Until he made mistakes and then he wasn't. I would be shocked if Giovanni Bernard just won the job, basically. No, no, no, no, no, no. He was James White. No, no, I wouldn't be shocked if he were James White.

And that's where I think he was James White. No, no. I wouldn't be shocked if he were James White. But he was a lead. And that's where I think he starts the year. Because they're miserable. Yeah. Well, yeah. Right. You can't have two guys splitting running downs and not getting the third down work. That just does not work.

Right. What if it's a situation where it's Geo and Fournette splitting the rushing downs work and Geo playing third downs? Which running back would you rather have? Oh, Geo. Well, no. where it's Gio and Fournette splitting the rushing downs work and Gio playing third downs. Which running back would you rather have? Oh, Gio. Well, no. Not if Fournette gets all the goal line work,

I suppose. Yeah, well, I think format would matter a little bit here, too. And non-PPR, I think it would be a no-brainer that Fournette, even if he doesn't see as much playing time, would be the better option for fantasy. But in full PPR, I think it could be Gio. And it would absolutely be Gio

if we're comparing Gio to Ronald Jones. And Fournette's the one who dissolves into the matrix. Well, you're talking to someone who's pretty agnostic when it comes to pass-catching running backs. I just think that they have to have such outlier seasons or they're never going to be able to trust them to start. For the late pick that it'll take to put Gio your bench i don't you shouldn't think twice about it especially if you're just trying to compile absolutely think twice about how many rounds do you have to have

before you're taking giovanni bernard minimum 10 maybe even more maybe 11 round 11 round 12 that's what i'm thinking about geo how about you oh yeah yeah That's what I'm thinking about Gio. How about you, Heath? Oh, yeah. Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Yeah, I'm not reaching for Gio in like round 8 or round 9. What's his ADP, like 200 or something? He's still available in my fishbowl. I get very... More in round 16. When I'm on this show and I'm so far off from you guys,

I don't really want to give the opinion because I just, you know, I think the people should listen to you, but he's not even on my draft list because I just again, like they have so many great receiving options. I don't see him being the James White.

Who was your last pick in Scott Fishbowl? My most recent pick round 14 was T.Y. Hilton. Okay. Well, that was a better pick than Gio. Well, this is a half PPR league, Scott Fishbowl, right? I'm only a pass catching running back, not even going

to draft him in a half PPR or non PPR league. Only full PPR. Oh, you're going, if you cross Gio off your draft board and make 22 picks in the Scott Fishbowl, you are going to take five players that are worse than Gio Bernardo. See and make 22 picks in the Scott Fish Bowl, you are going to take five players that are worse than Gio Bernard. See, I would rather take Marlon Mack.

I would rather take any running back who is one injury away from being much better than Giovanni Bernard. Because I don't think Giovanni Bernard is an injury away from being that much better. I think he's two injuries away. And especially in half PPR. And I would rather

take, and this isn't going to work in the Scott Fishbowl because it's super flex and it's tight end premium, but I would rather in a regular draft gamble on a third quarterback who might have an incredible year or a third tight end who might come out of nowhere. That's just my philosophy. A strictly pass catching running back just doesn't do it for me. They have to have such an outlier season. And then I guarantee you, the next year they're going to be completely overdrafted.

That's a guarantee. Hence why I qualified it with, if you want to build running back depth with late picks, we're all looking for late-round running backs. All of us are. But that's not the kind of guy that... This is a guy who might be able to give you something

in full PPR. With upside to give you something in every league. That's, I guess, the question. Does Giovanni Bernard have that upside? Does Naeem Hines have that upside? Let's say 80th percentile

outcomes. We won't get too crazy. A very, very good outcome for Geo. In full PPR, and he plays a full season, is probably 15th at running back. That's what I would say. It would be like 50 catches, 175 carries, and he finds the end zone six times. It would have to be more than 50 catches. Yeah, I think it might be like

80. It would have to be 70 to 80 catches for him to be RB15. Yeah, so I guess I'm saying that he won't be RB15, but what he might be is an RB that fills in during bye weeks or comes into more work by the time you get to November. But we're talking about upside. Heath is giving the upside,

the best case scenario, basically. The 80th percentile scenario. I think it's better. His best case scenario is better than what we got out of JD McKissick last year. JD McKissick scored three touchdowns. Sure. Yeah, right.

And James White was actually a pretty good touchdown scorer. I know full season, yell at me, it's fine. But JD McKissick finished RB17. Naeem Hines was RB18. Chase Edmonds was RB25. But was there... Right. Edmonds is a good example.

Because Edmonds was more of a consistent week-to-week, bi-week replacement kind of flex. You know, get you 8 to 12 points. Maybe for the one week when he was the lead guy. Right. He was the kind of guy that if you were really in a pinch in a PPR league, you put in Chase Edmonds, you take your fantasy points, you know you're not going to have something

huge, but you know you're not going to get a 0. You're not going to get a 4. Right? Whereas McKissick, I feel like it was a little more concentrated. He had a really good stretch. And then he kind of faded, if I recall. I don't have his game log in front of me. Yeah, you're right. But yeah, you know,

was Naeem Hines really an impactful player? Was he really an RB2 for the full season? We all know he wasn't. No, he was an RB3, but he actually averaged more PPR points per game than McKissick. Yeah, you know what I'm trying to say like mckissick you knew you could start him you had this stretch where you knew what his role was i think heinz

had a stretch like that early in the year no he had a stretch like that at the end of the year the end he had at least 10 ppr points in one two three four five of his last six games the problem was that he maxed out at 12 in five of those six games. Nobody was starting him then, were they? No, no one was excited about him then. Right, exactly. The only people who were starting him were people who were just decimated

by injuries at running back. They needed somebody who could get them something. He was getting five to eight at most carries per game, and then like three, four catches. He had six catches in week 17, two carries. Sure, so i think that is what geo could be i think geo could be a ppr running back that gets you between 10 and 15 points not drafting that i don't know you dropped that late if you need that type of safety net

that might be more true also if you're typically playing in leagues with one flex that what that i'm not drafting him? Yes. Yeah, if I have to start more players, then yeah. Obviously, my standards drop. But I don't think, like Naheem Hines, I don't think was dropped by a lot of people last year. I think

he was used as a flex by a lot of people. Oh, I bet he might have been. I can tell you. Okay, give me a week. I'll tell you what his roster percentage was. His roster percentage? Yeah, what we used to call owned. How owned his ownership was. Well, there's like...

He went into his bye week seven. I'd like to know what his roster percentage was coming out of that bye week. Oh, isn't that a little... That was also the only, like the one of two weeks all season where he didn't have a carry. All right, How about after...

How about... He had five catches for 45 yards at a touchdown in week 10. Why don't we see what his roster percentage and his star percentage was in week 11? All right. I'll look that up. You guys talk more about the lottery tickets.

Well, no. We know what they are, right? They're guys who need an injury. But Dave, you do have some interesting names here. Tevin Coleman is a lottery ticket. Damian Harris, who I think he sees a little bit differently. Tevin Coleman, Devin Singletary. Do they have enough upside

to really warrant a draft pick? Tevin Coleman, Singletary in particular. And Jamal Williams. Let's throw him in there too. If there is an injury, do they really become must-start guys or what? Talk about Jamal Williams, Tevin Coleman, and Devin Singletary. Absolutely, in the case of Williams and Singletary. Those guys would be primary backs for their respective teams. They would be in a position to catch a decent amount of passes each week. I would expect at least three catches from each of them if given the opportunity and a lot of work to go with it. And yeah, even in the case

of Singletary, well, I don't know if I can say it for Singletary, but definitely Williams would have short yardage and goal line. Singletary might get it if there's no Zach Moss. He might get opportunities. Let's put it that way. I don't know if I'll necessarily score on him because Allen could take him away. Coleman is the one that I'm not really comfortable with putting here. It's just, he knows the system in New York. He's capable of running it. He's a running back that you can draft who might get you some cheap fantasy points at the beginning of the year. I think, I think the first two or three games, he leads the way before Michael Carter takes over. And that's assuming that both of them look okay during the preseason. But I don't think anybody's excited to draft Tevin Coleman. He went

way late in my fishbowl league. Not sure he's even worth a round 10 pick, and I've got him right in this tier. But it's a warm body who could get 15 touches through september and then he might end up being somebody that you you cut it might even be a spike cut he might not you might even like curse him out as you click the the cut button in your fantasy league to get tevin coleman off your team and you won't even care that much because it was a pick after hundredth overall yeah i i um i I think Coleman's a pretty good value, and I think I'd probably actually have him just a little bit higher. But Dave, I agree.

I think he's going to probably be the Jets' starting running back week one as the current plan. I think he'll share with Carter week one. Well, yeah. Somebody has to share with Carter. And I'll tell you, I'll speak for myself. I've been making fun of the Jets for the last couple of years. On paper, their offensive line isn't that bad. The reports out of camp say that Zach Wilson is fitting in nicely.

Don't you want him to stand out? Well, if he doesn't stand out when they're working out in shorts, that's a problem. Fitting in with the Jets. That's not great. Okay, that's fine. But I think the Jets will be more—I certainly think they'll be more competitive than they've been. And I think that that'll help their run game. It'll give their offense a chance.

But when I watch Wilson play, I felt like he was at his best when he was moving around and throwing short and mid-range passes and the mid-range passes will be good for his receivers i think the short range passes will be especially good for his running backs carter can do that we've seen tevin coleman play okay as a receiver in the past again he's he's like he's listed here for the zero rb truthers for the people who are going to go like you said he the first thing and this is go, like you said, Heath, the first six. And this is perfect for you. You said that you could see a scenario where you go with your first six picks in your agnostic drafting strategy without a running back. And when you get to round seven and beyond, all you want are running backs and get you off to a good start.

Coleman will be on your list. Naeem Hines actually was rostered in about 90% of leagues and started in 50% to 70% for this. Toward the end of the year? I didn't look at the playoffs because those, you can't really, most of the teams have been eliminated. But yeah, weeks 10, 11, 12, 13. I'm telling you, man.

People were desperate for running backs last year. He was absolutely roster worthy. Yes, he was. And he had some decent weeks. He had some double digits. I guess I'm just skeptical in terms of Geo. I know people want to make the James White comparisons, and that's great.

But Tom Brady wasn't throwing to Chris Gobb and Mike Evans and Antonio Brown. I hope to God he is not throwing to Giovanni Bernard as much as he was throwing to James White because that's going to be really bad for the wide receivers or Tom Brady is just going to, as we said on the Monday show,

break every record and be QB1 or something like that. Yeah, because even last year, when he was throwing to all those guys, they had 118 targets that went to running backs. Gotta love Bruce Arians, right? You do. Just keep throwing it.

Okay, final thoughts? Anything else? I wish we had time to get into Damian Harris a little bit more. I'm nervous about him. I don't see him being an every down back for the Patriots. And as long as Cam Newton is the quarterback there, I don't see him being an every down back for the Patriots. And as long as Cam Newton is the quarterback there,

I don't see him getting a lot of goal line chances. I think it's a good, really good discussion. And probably not something I like to have an hour and three minutes into a show. So we'll do it earlier in a different show later in the week. We've got wide receiver tears, tight end tears, and a mailbag coming up. Give us your Apple podcast questions, your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Fantasyfootballatcbsi,

that's the letter I, dot com. For Dave and Heath, I am Adam. Thanks so much for listening. We will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today. Hey, Heath, when you go to brunch, would you say your strategy is agnostic? Oh.