Fantasy Football Today - RBs in New Systems; Early ADP Mistakes; Darnold Reaction (04/06 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 6, 2021

We've got more reaction to the Sam Darnold trade at the top of the show and then again minutes later (7:10) before we get into our two main topics. Let's start with some ADP mistakes (14:45)! Fantasy managers are drafting Cam Akers ahead of Aaron Jones and D.K. Metcalf ahead of A.J. Brown. Are those justifiable or are they mistakes? What other ADP trends caught our eye? ... Looking at new offensive coordinators and play callers around the league, which ones will have the biggest impact on the RBs? We start with the Chargers (26:00) and the Lions (32:00) and what we can expect from RBs in the passing game. Let's hope Joe Lombardi's second stint as an offensive coordinator is better than his first ... We also cover the play calling possibilities in Jacksonville (35:40), Tennessee/Minnesota (37:40), plus Miami, Seattle, Philadelphia and finally Atlanta (49:10) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow the FFT in 5 podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google, or wherever you listen to FFT. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Follow 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. What's going on, everybody? Welcome back to Fantasy Football Today, another episode here where we're talking about running backs in new systems. And I think the Lions system's very interesting.

The Chargers system's very interesting. So new offensive coordinators, new schemes. What does it mean for the existing running backs? Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg and Heath Cummings. Chris Towers will join us in a little bit. We are also going to talk about the Sam Darnold trade. We did a bonus pod on that yesterday, so make sure you listen to that,

but we'll give you fresh thoughts from Heath Cummings who did not get to talk about it yesterday. Heath, give me fresh thoughts on the Sam Darnold trade. Mixed feelings. I'm happy for Sam Darnold that he gets a new opportunity with outstanding weapons and DJ Moore and Robbie Moore and Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey. And it's really a great chance, a creative offensive system.

It seemed like everyone was a little more excited for DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey than I was because statistically Sam Darnold has been the worst quarterback that still gets to be a starting quarterback over the past three seasons in the NFL. He ranks dead last in almost every category amongst quarterbacks that have thrown at least a thousand passes. So I don't know how to feel about this for DJ Moore or Robbie Anderson, but I'm happy for dynasty purposes. If you've got Darnold on a super flex league, or if you held on to him because you had hope there's still a little bit of hope left and there's a chance I mean we knew he was going to escape Adam Gase anyway but there's a chance escaping Adam Gase escaping the Jets getting

these good weapons Sam Darnold still just 23 years old maybe now he he turns into what we thought he could be when he was drafted but But, man, he's been bad. I would like an answer to this. Who's worse, Sam Darnold or Daniel Jones? Well, Daniel Jones does not meet the 1,000 attempt. But for fantasy, I think it's quite obvious. No, no, not for fantasy. Not for fantasy. For fantasy, it's obviously Darnold.

I don't think we know yet. Okay. I agree. As far as like for the NFL. Yeah, that sounds right. What's up, Jamie? Hey. Not such a great game. It was a very disappointing game. Very disappointing. It was very disappointing. Kudos to Baylor, though.

I mean, not disappointing for them and their fans, obviously, but obviously, I think a lot of people expected it to be a little closer. So, but it was fun in the second half, you know, when end of the first half, second half, you know, when Gonzaga cut it to 10. Yeah, 10. I agree.

It was like, oh, got a game here at halftime. Here comes Gonzaga. But no, they were the, they were not the better team, not even close. And we have a winner. I will announce our winner in just a little bit. Here's your tweet of the day. It comes from Rich Samini, who covers the Jets for ESPN. Jets' recent first-round picks.

2018, Sam Darnold, traded. 2017, Jamal Adams, traded. 2016, Darren Lee, traded. 2015, Leonard Williams, traded. 2014, Calvin Pryor, traded. 2013, Calvin Pryor traded. 2013, Dee Milner cut. 2013, I guess they had two. Sheldon Richardson traded.

2012, Quentin Coppels cut. 2011, Muhammad Wilkerson cut. That's not how you build a franchise. That is not good. So sorry, Zach Wilson. The return they got for Adams is going to help. The return they got for Darnold is okay. But, you know, given what the market was for him, not bad.

Get another two. I thought it was great. Yeah. Yeah. You know, remember, was it last year or two years ago when the Dolphins traded for Josh Rosen? That was two years ago. Second round pick. And they traded two and a seven for a five or something like that?

Yeah, we thought at the time, hey, great job by the Dolphins there, getting a former top pick for a second rounder, basically. And it was actually a great job by Arizona getting a second round pick for Josh Rosen. Well, it depends. That pick was Andy Isabella. Well, it's still a good trade though and i don't think we've seen near as much evidence that josh rosen is bad as we have the sam darnold's bed i think there's probably a reason for that you know but but maybe it was a great trade by the

jets getting uh something for sam darnold we will see you know i'm looking forward to a new chapter for darnold i know a lot of people in new york still think he's got a lot of talent and uh again we'll break down this trade in a little bit. It is Masters Week. That means CBS Sports HQ is your home for round-the-clock coverage from Augusta. That includes tournament picks, round-by-round matchups, highlights, leaderboard updates. And we even have our pal from the First Cut podcast, Kyle Porter, on site, providing up-to-the-minute updates so you'll know everything there is to know from Augusta. If you're wondering what CBS Sports HQ is, it's our 24-7, 365 days a year sports news network.

How do you get it? It's easy and it's free. You just go to cbssports.com, the CBS Sports mobile app, or fire up the CBS Sports app on your connected TV and watch yourself become the most in-the-know sports fan in your group text, which is nice. And right now, Fernando Tatis hurt his shoulder.

Chris is on HQ talking about it right now because Chris covers fantasy baseball. So that's what we do. We have breaking news. We give you fantasy reaction, non-fantasy reaction. It's all on CBS Sports HQ. Guys, let's give a round of applause. Congratulate Tracy Mitstarfer. Tracy won our March Madness pool with the Baylor win.

Tracy actually finished in a tie with Ryan Parchinski, but Tracy had the better prediction of the final score, actually, or the total points. I think it came within two points. So Tracy is in the podcast league and also will be getting some more prizes, and Tracy will reach out to you about that. So there's really no other news

other than this Bill Belichick news that he ignored scouts who wanted A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel instead of Nikhil Harry and Belichick drafted Harry. That's according to Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated. But other than that, it's just Sam Darnold to the Panthers. And I know Chris downgraded D.J. Moore. Well, wait.

Yeah. Do you think A.J. Brown would be A.J. Brown if he went to the Patriots or he would be Nikhil Harry? I think he'd be A.J. Brown. Yeah? I don't know. What do you think?

I mean, their track record with receivers has been so awful drafting guys that it's hard to say. And then, you know, the quarterback situation being what it was last year.

But he would have had Brady for a year. Right. So hopefully that would help. But I just wonder. It's just nobody. You shouldn't go to New England. Just a bad, bad team. Don't know what they're doing.

For drafted receivers, yes. Yeah. Obviously kidding there. But no, and also haven't had a lot of luck with receivers. Okay, Heath, so did you move the receiver? You know what? No, forget that. We've talked so much about that. We talked about it on FFT

in five. We talked about it on the bonus pod yesterday. What about the Jets guys? What? No was my answer. I didn't move them. No. This is not a huge fantasy impact trade it looks like what about the jets guys though uh they're like i said yesterday on the bonus pod they're more likely now to have a rookie quarterback under center in week one

what do you think about the jets pass catchers i don't i didn't move them either because is it more likely that their rookie quarterback is better or worse than Sam Darnold? Don't know. Who knows? No one even knows how good Sam Darnold is. I'm just sticking with the same expectation. I think Jamie, generally speaking,

I wonder how influenced people are going to be by what Justin Herbert did last year, because typically rookie quarterbacks aren't really that great. Like Baker Mayfield had a great rookie quarterback season and it wasn't really that great. Joe Burrow, honestly, I don't think he was really that great, but he threw 40 times a game. Justin Herbert was truly great. And I wonder what the expectations will be, especially since they relaxed the pass interference rules and the offensive holding rules and we saw an offensive uptick last year,

but what the expectations will be for Lawrence and Wilson, who it seems everybody thinks he's going to, and whoever the 49ers take three, and Justin Fields. Rookie quarterbacks, though, are people going to... How do you think they're going to value them this year? I think the guys that are going to walk in starting opportunities are going to be in starting opportunities are going

to be looked at with, you know, the potential of doing what those guys did a year ago. And that's probably unrealistic, but that's just the nature of how people view sports and view players and view situations, you know, year over year. So I think if you go in with the understanding of, hey, if I draft Jalen Hurts, maybe I'll take Trevor Lawrence as the second quarterback. Or maybe the opposite of that, if I take a veteran guy like Tom Brady, I'll take a young quarterback like Zach Wilson just to see pairing maybe the downfalls of the older guy versus the upside of the younger guy. But I think more importantly, though, for Zach Wilson in particular, it's what is he going to do for those guys? Because, you know, Corey Davis is still somebody who's going to get drafted as a number three receiver.

Jamison Crowder is going to get drafted as a number three, number four receiver. Denzel Mims kind of in the same situation. But, you know, you've got to give them some time to grow with that guy, and hopefully there's a chance for them to put up decent numbers. But, you know, I think in regards to the Jets, you know, I, I think in regards to the jets, you know, they still have so many holes to fill quarterback and running back being the two biggest ones for fantasy. All right. Any final thoughts?

You want to talk about the Panthers, Christian McCaffrey or anything that you think this changes anything offensively for them? I don't, I don't really, I think it's,. You said Chris downgraded DJ Moore, I think. I think it's more likely this year, if we're just looking at the evidence we have, that Sam Darnold's worse than Teddy Bridgewater. So maybe it's a slight negative,

but you don't have to be a very good quarterback to do what Christian McCaffrey needs you to do. So I don't think it's going to impact him very much. They weren't exactly an elite offense before. So I, it's not like there's a big downgrade there. I, I think this, for me, at least this whole move and this whole thing, like it's interesting. I'm happy for Donald.

I'm sad for Teddy, but it's just kind of a wait and see, like we've got lots to learn. Yeah. It's not like, it's not like Bridgewater and this is not taking away from him, but it's not like he was the one that enhanced these guys, you know, that they made plays and he was good for them. The hope is that Darnold is better for them. He could clearly be worse because of what we've seen from him over the course of his career, but hopefully he comes in and can take advantage of Joe Brady system,, DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson again, and

Caffrey. And I don't think they're done. And I think that's the bigger thing for me, at least when it comes to Moore and Anderson is now this puts them in a position to add another pass catcher. Whereas all along, it looked like they were going to go quarterback. Now I've seen some mock drafts where they still go defense or offensive line. They could be the team that pulls the trigger first on Sertan as the top corner in the draft. They also can see if Sewell or Slater fall to them at eight and they can go that route. But if they decide, hey, we're going to make Darnold

as comfortable as possible with another playmaker, Pitts probably being the more likely over the receivers, then that changes everything, I think, for over the receivers, then that changes everything. I think for what the receivers look like fantasy wise. What I really am interested to know is what the routes will look like for Robbie Anderson and DJ Moore, because Robbie Anderson went from a guy who was a downfield guy, high a dot to a more underneath guy or shorter routes. Let's say that. And last time he played with Sam Darnold, he was running very different routes than what we saw last year. And if you're wondering,

well, what kind of quarterback is Sam Darnold in terms of his, you know, it's ADOT for receivers and it's intended air yards per pass attempt. Heath, do you call it ADOT for quarterbacks? No. Because it's not targets, but it's the same thing.

It's how far they're throwing the ball. I think it could be average depth of throw. Yeah, there you go. Intended air yards per pass attempt, right? it's been very different for Darnold in his three seasons so yeah I guess uh I guess I'm just curious because last year a total flip where Robbie Anderson was the PPR specialist and DJ Moore was the non-PPR guy, you know, a low-catch guy. And that, I think, could easily change, and we wouldn't really know. So we'll see. More importantly, though, you got to get yourself – all right, you got to treat yourself, right?

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But before we get to that, I wanted to throw out some ADP questions to you. I looked at NFC average draft position since March 22nd, which was after most of the big free agency news. It was after Gallaudet, for example, which came kind of late. So tell me what you think about this. Ready? Cam Akers ahead of Aaron Jones. Cam Akers 10th, Aaron Jones 12th. Jamie? I don't like it, and I love Cam Akers. I think there's a big opportunity for him, but Aaron Jones hopefully takes advantage of Jamal Williams not being there. Now, he could lose some rushing opportunities to A.J. Dillon, which I think would be smart for the

Packers to give A.J. Dillon more of an opportunity. But Jamal Williams was the guy that was taking Aaron Jones off the field in some passing situations. And now hopefully Jones takes advantage of that because he could be special in the passing game. So I'd much rather have Aaron Jones than Cam Akers. I'll understand the upside of what Akers can be, but, you know, don't pass up on what Jones has been the last two years, which has been a top four running back each of the last two seasons. Yeah, Jamie was very kind there, I think. I think there's a chance that Akers could be better than Jones,

but I don't know why you would draft it that way. Jones has been awesome, and if anything, his situation's probably a little bit better now. I actually think you could make an argument for Jones as a top four or five pick. All right. Next up is DK Metcalf, 26th, ahead of AJ Brown, 29th. I don't think you guys would do this. DK Metcalf ahead of AJ Brown.

Heath? Yeah, I would rather have AJ Brown. But some of that is also projecting obviously i'm project we talked about this a couple days yesterday i guess i'm projecting aj brown to have a career high and to really dominate targets because cory davis and john who smith are gone and i'm projecting dk metcalf to kind of be in a similar situation to what he has been, or at least what he was last year. But on a, like they're both incredible.

And if I'm wrong and Metcalf is the one that sees more targets and Brown stays at his normal rate, then this is probably going to be true. But yeah, I would definitely take Brown over Metcalf. The thing you got to be a little nervous about with DK Metcalf now, and this factors into anybody doing any sort of drafting or trading, is Antonio Brown's still looming. And we know that Russell Wilson was thrown with him last year. If he goes there to what could be, based on the second half and based on how this offseason has been, a lower volume passing attack in Seattle with them bringing back Chris Carson, I don't

know how three guys can be so successful. DK Metcalf will still be fine. Tyler Locke will still be fine. But if three guys are there, they're not going to be as good as they were a year ago. So it might be a good time to sell DK Metcalf if you can. Not that he's, again, he's going to be great, even if there's another guy there, but better than AJ Brown, I just don't see it. It's kind of funny because like all the smoke on Brown would be Seattle or Tampa Bay. You look at Tennessee, they're the team that could really use Antonio Brown, but next day, because all the smoke on Brown would be Seattle or Tampa Bay. You look at Tennessee, they're the team that could really use Antonio Brown. But next day, A.J. Brown is a number two wide receiver. But I don't think they're going to do that. Yeah, I think my guess is Antonio Brown at this point

is going to go somewhere where he wants to be happy. And I don't know if Tennessee is the type of place where they throw the ball under 500 times that he's going to be happy. So I don't know if Seattle is either, but he has a relationship with Russell Wilson, so that changes things. I think the bigger issue is that on our rankings page, both of them are

A. Brown. And if you have A. Brown, Tennessee wide receiver, I think that's going to be very confusing. People are going to be starting Antonio Brown. That just happened with somebody else too, right? A worse player? In Carolina, it's D. Moore and D. Moore.

Yes, definitely going to nominate D. Moore in a salary cap draft this year. Alright, next up. Najee Harris and Travis Etienne are in this average draft position. They are going 33rd and 34th overall. They are just behind Miles Sanders and David Montgomery

and just ahead of Josh Jacobs who is 36th overall. They are just behind Miles Sanders and David Montgomery and just ahead of Josh Jacobs, who is 36th overall. So it goes Sanders, Montgomery, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Josh Jacobs. Obviously, Jamie, we don't know the teams for these guys, but just for fun, what do you think about these two highly touted rookies going basically at the end of round three and in between Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, and just after them, just before Josh Jacobs? I mean, the hope would be that the three teams that will be looking at those two guys, which would be the Dolphins, the Steelers, and the Jets, that they end up going in the first round and give you the opportunity to step in and be

featured options. All three of those teams, the Dolphins probably the lesser of the three, because, you know, I guess of what Myles Gaskin did a year ago, but I don't know how much the Dolphins would look at that. But in any event, you know, I think all three teams would give those guys a chance to be featured backs. And the Steelers, you know, what typically has been a Mike Tomlin running back, which is a great situation.

The Dolphins based on what they're doing and building up this team, building up their offensive line the last couple of seasons, that'd be a great situation. Um, the dolphins based on what they're doing and building up this team and building up their offensive line the last couple of seasons, that'd be a great situation. And, uh, the jets would be the interesting one, but, you know, again, opportunity there for a Lafleur offense with a defensive head coach and, you know, young quarterback, I'm sure they give them an opportunity to be successful. So, uh, that's probably the range they're going to end up going anyway. Uh, I wouldn't, it wouldn. It wouldn't shock me if they end up in those spots. Now, the risk is clearly they end up in a timeshare, and you're like, ugh, why did I spend a third-round pick

on a guy who is going to have to earn his way onto the field? Could be a Jonathan Taylor situation. Could be worse. Chris, come on, man. Lose the blazer. This is a podcast. I know you just got done with HQ. I didn't want to have to take the time to take it off,

and then it would look weird if I was just wearing a button-down. So, you know, I wanted to class up the point. You got these two guys wearing their hats inside. Right? I know. Put your sunglasses on. Like, come on, guys. What's going on?

All right, I'll throw the next one to Chris here. We're doing some ADP review. We're looking at NFC ADP since March 22nd, which was after most of the major free agents had signed. Keenan Allen. We just talked about a group of running backs, Chris, going basically between 30 and 36. Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Josh Jacobs.

They're all being taken ahead of Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson. So Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson, two very safe, clear number one ride receivers on their offense, who in PPR leagues at least are consistently top 10, top 12 guys, going after those five running backs. What do you think? I guess it makes sense you know i think one thing that we're going to see a lot of this year is people trying to get two really good starting

running backs that they feel good about and for me that runs out around the 21st spot in the rankings at running back and you know if i don't end up with a wide receiver until my fourth pick, I'm actually not going to be super thrilled about my wide receivers, but I think it'll be okay. So I get why maybe a Keenan Allen might be dropping down. And I think he's probably just a little undervalued every year in drafts because he's not he's a little bit older he doesn't have like the wow factor that someone like a DK Metcalf does but um you know if I end up with him as my number one wide receiver because I waited until the third or fourth round I'm actually pretty fine with that yeah he's uh Keenan Allen you want to

hop on there Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson after Sanders, Montgomery, Najee Harris, ETN, Josh Jacobs. Like a couple of those backs I could definitely understand. I don't think all five of them should probably go before. And I actually have a little bit of separation between Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson. Just because I think there's a better chance that Allen could give us a top five PPR season than what Robinson could. You look at the kind of pace that

Allen was on at the beginning or before he got hurt last year. 122 catches, 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns. I would take Allen ahead of those guys for the most part, but I could see a lot of those running backs over Robinson. Alan had a similar trend in 2019, right?

He started off like his, you know, he doesn't have hair on his head, but he started off like his proverbial head was on fire. But yes, I, yeah. But the pace I used last year was actually through his first 13 games.

Oh, okay. Okay. Like it was almost the entire, it was every complete game that he played. Yeah, okay, yeah, yeah. Because he only played, what, 20% of the snaps in week 14? 36. 36, yeah.

Okay. So, was that his 16-game pace or his 17-game pace? That was his 16-game pace. So, he'd be even, like, we're talking about 130 catches, 1,300 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Yeah. I think I have him projected for the fifth most catches in the NFL. Yeah.

And I'll tell you in a moment, we'll tell you in a moment why his new offensive coordinator, Keenan Allen's new offensive coordinator might be really good for Keenan Allen, but then I'll tell you why he might be really bad for Justin Herbert. Uh-oh. Do I have the scary music cued up here?

Wait. That was great. Great production. That's why I need someone to run the board for me. Okay, we're going to take a quick break here on Fantasy Football today. When we come back, Offensive Corners, new systems for these running backs. After this.

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Looking at running backs and new systems here. So the teams I think will highlight are Atlanta with Arthur Smith. Detroit hiring Anthony Lynn, who has had a 50-catch running back. Every year he's been an offensive coordinator or head coach. Let's see. Who else? Jacksonville with Darryl Bevel as offensive coordinator. He will be calling plays, even though Urban Meyer will have a heavy influence.

Joe Lombardi going to the Chargers. Maybe the Dolphins we'll talk about. They promoted from within. They have two offensive coordinators. Their offense should be twice as good. Minnesota with Clint Kubiak. The Jets with Mike LaFleur. Nick Sirianni in Philadelphia.

Maybe Matt Canada in Pittsburgh. He was the quarterback's coach. Shane Waldron going from the Rams to the Seah in Pittsburgh. He's the, he was the quarterbacks coach, Shane Waldron going from the Rams to the Seahawks. He's their new offensive coordinator. Um, that's my, and Todd Downing in Tennessee. I like the ones we started with.

Like we, let's spend a lot of time on like the first two or three that you said. And when we get to the dolphins, two headed offensive coordinator, I'm just going to let you guys talk. Okay. We also cannot talk about the Eagles because when I say Nick, his last name,

Siri from my phone pops up all the time and she just talked. She just gave me the Eagle schedule. So thanks for nothing, Siri. Do you have, Adam, do you have, you're just using headphones or do you have speakers? For what?

It would be fun for just us to just start shouting Siri on. You just had phones. Just had phones. Okay, so then, Jamie, where do you want to start? What's the most interesting one for you? Probably Joe Lombardi. Good.

Let's do it. What do you think about Joe Lombardi for the Chargers? He has been an offensive coordinator for a year and a half with Detroit, 2014 and 2015. It did not go well. And I want to read this quote when he got fired in 2015 from NFL.com. Lombardi's place in Detroit always felt like an awkward fit. He struggled to adapt a Saints-like offense in Detroit based on timing and precision. Matthew Stafford has never mastered the finer points of the position like Breeze. This was back in 2015, by the way. And he regressed in an offense built around short passing. So it was bad. And by the way, when you look at Justin Herbert, I know this conversation was

supposed to be about running backs, but whatever. When you look at Justin Herbert, if you look at his best games in terms of passer rating, they are very closely aligned to his highest intended air yards per attempt games. Basically when he threw the ball downfield more, he was more successful. When later in the year they got more conservative, he struggled. I don't know what

kind of offense Lombardi's going to run, but if it's what he ran in Detroit, I don't know if that's going to be a good thing. So what's your take on Lombardi with the Chargers? That was the post-Calvin Detroit, correct? No. That was Calvin Johnson's second-to-last season

and last season. But it is worth noting, Golden Tate had a 1,300-yard season in 2014 under Joe Lombardi, and he was better than Calvin Johnson. And then Calvin Johnson's last year was the year that Lombardi got fired. I just wonder, you know, I'm, I'm hoping at least that Lombardi, you know, learns from his mistakes, you know, like you see some coaches do and realizes that

he can't run the same exact system that he was trying to bring from new Orleans to Detroit and more adapts to what his talent is with the chargers. Now, that being said, Herbert may be able to handle that offense and be fine, but I think, you know you mentioned Anthony Lynn as a guy that's got a 50 catch running

back every stop that he's been as a coordinator or coach that also speaks to the guys that he's had to deal with. And also neck, but clearly is still going to be a factor in the passing game. That'd be stupid if he's not. So I think he's fine. I think he has top five potential in PPR still, top 10 in non-PPR as well.

So he's a guy that should be a first-round pick. And then we'll see, once again, who wins the second job. Is it Justin Jackson or Joshua Kelly? Hopefully it's Kelly. You know, he's a guy that I liked a lot last year. But I think both running backs will be fine. I think, you know, again, Eckler's a top-tier talent, and Kelly's a guy you could take with a late-round pick at this point.

Yeah. Chris, I know you're going to love this. Who knows how much this matters? It was six years ago, seven years ago, when he was the coordinator for Detroit. But just for fun here, Reggie Bush, Theo Riddick, and Joyke Bell had 108 catches

that year. And I know you love Austin Eckler. So if they implement a similar offense, it would seem to be very good for Eckler, who you have as a top five back. Yeah, and I think this is a situation where I don't think the offense is likely to change very much, like Jamie said, even with a new coaching staff. Justin Herbert was actually,

he had the fourth highest rate of passes that didn't travel beyond the line of scrimmage in the NFL, which is actually pretty surprising. He was 22nd in rate of passes that traveled at least 15 and 20 yards, which is, you know, when I think of Justin Herbert's rookie season, the things that stand out to me are, like you said, Adam, all the deep passes, you know, the success that he had throwing the guys like Jalen Guyton down the field. But yeah, I would expect we're going to see a ton of Austin Eckler. He is one of the rare running backs who when you throw to him, it shouldn't just be as your last resort. You know, it's not like JD McKissick last year in Washington where they're averaging. JD McKissick, let off that guy a little bit. It's not one of these situations where you're averaging

five yards per, Leonard Fournette in Tampa Bay. You know, you're not averaging five yards per attempt when you throw to Austin Eckler. You can use him down the field. You can use him.

He makes plays after the catch really well. So, you know, if he doesn't get 90 targets, I think it's probably, you know,

if he plays 17 games, if he doesn't get 117 games, I think it's probably a failure of this offense, given that they lost Hunter Henry. And given that outside of Keenan Allen, they pretty much have an offense, you know, full of big play guys, not necessarily guys you want to have a huge target volume with. So, yeah, I have Austin Eckler as my number three running back in PPR. I think he's going to have a monster season. Well, based on what he did last year, he played 10 games. One of them was with Tyrod Taylor, and he left two others early with injury. So I gave him seven fully healthy games with Justin Herbert. You take those seven games. You've got to have music for Azerstats. You give him a 16. We've got to have Azerstats music.

I'm not into that. I think taking out the injured games makes sense. Heath, you just did that with Keenan Allen. So you don't have a leg to stand on there. You give him 16 games at that pace. You must have at least two qualifications, not just the injured games. You got to get multiple filters.

Well, Taylor didn't throw to him, you know, but you give him those seven healthy games with Justin Herbert. He was on pace for more than 100 catches. And in terms of PPR points per game, he would have been fifth. And that was with scoring two touchdowns in those seven games. So, yeah, on pace for four touchdowns, and he still would have been RB5. You got to hope that he's durable. I mean, first season without Gordon being the featured guy, the lead guy,

and he didn't perform well injury-wise. So hopefully he stays healthy and can prove it. Heath, where's our next offensive coordinator stop? Let's just keep the connection. We'll go from the Chargers to the guy who left the Chargers and Anthony Lynn. And I love, love, love this for DeAndre Swift. And I was just looking at it. The last year, Washington, J.D. McKissick,

led the NFL with 161 targets to their running backs. And that's a little misleading because McKissick played the slot like 13% of his snaps. He was a slot receiver more than any other running back last year. But they targeted their running backs 161 times. Anthony Lynn's offense the last three years with the Chargers has averaged 163 targets to running backs.

That's pretty good. It's very good. That's great. How concerned should we be about Jamal Williams? They didn't give him hardly anything, did they? I don't remember. I mean, for running back contracts, it's on par with what a high-end backup would get.

Like, I think I have Jamal Williams at 72 targets, which might be a career high and that still leaves plenty for Deandre Swift to be a top 10 PPR back. The problem for Swift is going to be how much Jamal Williams takes away from him and the fact that he's on a bad team. And so how many scoring opportunities will he get? His receptions should be fine. Like he could lead all running backs and receptions would not be a huge surprise given the coach.

And let's not forget the running back coach, Deuce Daly, who's a guy that... Oh, you mean on the Lions? Huh? You mean lead the Lions running backs and receptions? No, I mean, he could lead the league in receptions at the position. I don't think he will,

but it wouldn't shock me if he did. Sure. But, you know, because I mean, you look at it, look at this shock me if he did. But, you know, because, I mean, you look at it. Look at this receiving core. It's still miserable. So, Brashad Perryman, Tyrell Williams, and Quintus Cephas, as good as TJ Hawkinson may be, Swift could lead them in catches, lead them in targets.

I mean, he could be, you know, Derek Goss would be running for his life. So, in panic mode for a non-mobile quarterback, this is a perfect situation for Swift. But how many touchdowns will he score? How many rushing yards will he get? How many times they can be playing with a lead? You know, those are things that are going to factor in. And then you still have Jamal Williams and carry on Johnson there. You know, I don't think we should overlook carry on Johnson having a role still because he's still a talented player. So Swift, like we said, or at least like, like I said, when we were talking about second year running backs is the

one I think that loses the most based on where he finished last year. But Anthony Lynn is great for him in that regard and what he can do for this offense and for hopefully Swift's role in the passing. The contract, two years, I believe it can max out at $7.5 million. So not a lot of money for Jamal Williams. And in terms of touchdowns, it was surprising to see how many rushing touchdowns the Lions scored last year. This is usually not a strength of money for Jamal Williams. And in terms of touchdowns, it was surprising to see how many rushing touchdowns

the Lions scored last year. This is usually not a strength of their team. They scored 17 last year. That's as many as they had combined in 2018 and 2019. So they had not, Detroit had not had more than 11 rushing touchdowns by running backs since 2013. And that was the last time they had a 1,000-yard rusher,

which was Reggie Bush. They've been a horrible run offense. Low touchdowns, low yards. Last year, those 17 rushing touchdowns was very surprising, just from running backs, just from running backs. Anything else to say

about the Detroit situation? Shall we move on? You'll love the wide receivers that DeAndre Swift is playing with right if you want to see him catch some passes jacksonville daryl bevel calling plays he he is a very experienced offensive coordinator he's been one since 2006 urban meyer obviously will have a big hand in this offense just does this mean anything to you jamie that Darryl Bevel originally was a workhorse, running back type of guy?

It actually started with Chester Taylor in his first season, in Bevel's first season as an offensive coordinator. Taylor had 303 carries for the Vikings. Then it was Adrian Peterson. Then over to Seattle was Marshawn Lynch. In his later days with Seattle and then with Detroit, he has not had the opportunity really, I think,

to make someone a workhorse. But that's what he used to be. Does that matter or is it just too long ago to matter? A little different NFL at the time, with how things have been called and how passing games have evolved. But this, I think, just comes down to Trevor Lawrence. You know, how good is he right away?

How much are they going to put faith in him to, you know, be the catalyst of this offense? You would think he is because of what he showed you at Clemson and what the investment is in him as opposed to, hey, let's let the undrafted rookie running back or undrafted second-year running back who did have a great season lead our team if he's still going to be the leader of the backfield so um i i do think that robinson is going to get his share of carries i do think that if he's the lead guy there he's going to you know still be the workhorse but as we've said time and time again you know is this all they're doing

is it just carlos hide and then backfilling with some you know reserve guys who could play on special teams or is it going to be hey let's get a significant pass catching back or let's get maybe a lead back? You know, I mean, they have the draft capital to do it depending on who falls in the second round. So it wouldn't shock me if they if they add another running back. But I would like to see James Robinson get a chance to build off what he did a year ago because he was successful. He was fun. And hopefully he can do it in a better offense in a better situation. Okay. Heath,

let's talk about Minnesota and Tennessee. They actually were extremely, they were similar and they were talked about this yesterday, but they were run heavy and also extremely efficient and had great years offensively. And they hired from within Minnesota elevated Clint Kubiak. He was their quarterback coach and And Tennessee elevated Todd Downing. Gary's son.

Yeah, Gary's son. It's their former offensive coordinator's son. And Todd Downing, the tight ends coach, elevated to offensive coordinator for Tennessee. Dalvin Cook and Derek Henry, do you see any reason why they wouldn't be among the league leaders and carries, at least carries per game? No.

The only thing I would say, I pretty much just am considering the Minnesota situation to be an extension of what they've had like they had Kubiak there uh two years ago when he wasn't the offensive coordinator but he was kind of helping to run things and then Kubiak was the offensive coordinator and now Kubiak's kid's the offensive coordinator and he'll be different than his dad but we don't really know how yet the one thing I will say, and you can kind of look at Arthur Smith's time in Tennessee and a lot of the past four or five years, when we get first-time play callers, those teams often end up

being lower-volume offensive plays or slower-paced offenses. I think probably because guys that have never called plays during NFL games take a little bit longer to figure out how to get through the playbook. How does that, sorry, do you have the data on how that compares to their previous seasons? Just because the one thing I'm thinking is that if you have a new offensive coordinator, that usually means you were bad the year before, and it usually means that you know that your team probably

got better in the first year just because they're you know usually teams that play poorly in one year play better in this in the next year in the nfl so i just wonder if that's a if that's a game script thing these are probably the two bad examples because they're from within you know and so um to your point smith was promoted from within that i'm sorry arthur smith was promoted from within but he'd never called plays well i was gonna say to your point you probably feel more comfortable with kubiak as opposed to downing because being a quarterback's coach there's a lot more involvement in what the play calling may be and i would imagine he's got a lot more influence as opposed to the tight ends coach you know who's you know

probably a little bit more focused on his position group having a say, obviously, but not the same say as the quarterbacks coach. And clearly there's gotta be much more conversation between Gary and his kid, as opposed to Arthur Smith and Todd Downing. The diff, the only thing that's a correlation as well is that that's what Arthur

Smith was promoted from. He was the tight ends coach with the Titans when he got promoted to offensive coordinator. So the Titans are following the same game plan that they just did in promoting tight ends coach to offensive coordinator. These two teams were tied for fourth in yards per play. Texans were one, Packers two, Chiefs three, and then Tennessee and Minnesota tied for fourth.

One thing I'll say in Downing's favor is that I do believe he called plays in 2017 with the Raiders. He was a coordinator, yeah, off-score. Okay. They didn't have an offensive head coach who would have... It was Jack Del Rio,

so I'm pretty sure it was Todd Downing that was calling the plays. Yeah, I think... He was bad at it. In both situations, I think it's... It's about continuity and the, you know, they're not going to change what these teams do too much.

So I don't think either one of them makes a huge difference. I do think though, you could see, and he, if you sort of touched on this, a little difference for the Vikings, because you're starting to hear, like,

you know, I said, it's actually Mike Zimmer seems to be a little bit more open to the fact of we have some playmakers who can catch the ball, including Domko. And so, you know, it's not just let's baby Kirk Cousins. You have to score in the NFL. You have to be productive in the passing game in the NFL.

You can't just, you know, run it twice and hope your quarterback bails you out on third and long situations if that in the NFL. You can't just, you know, run a three, you know, run it twice and hope your quarterback bails you out on third and long situations. If that's the case. So I think you're going to see him allow Kubiak to be a little bit more open with the offense. That being said, if they get off to a bad start,

then you may get the, the, the change in philosophy and the change of tune, but their defense is going to be better. Their defense was terrible last year. And these young kids are going to grow up. They're going to get pass rushers. It's going to be a better, better was terrible last year. And these young kids are going to grow up. They're going to get pass rushers. It's going to be a better unit on that side of the ball. It's just a matter

of how much will that, in fact, influence what Zimmer has Kubiak do on the offensive side. We're going to save Atlanta for last. But here's some other teams. Then we just kind of touched on Atlanta with Tennessee. I think it's more interesting. Right, right. That's why we'll save it. We'll save it.

Here are the other teams that could be part of this discussion. You guys tell me which teams stand out as maybe teams that could change things up, be good or bad for the running back in place. Houston has a new head coach, David Culley. He was Baltimore's passing game coordinator, but they are keeping Tim Kelly as their offensive coordinator who's been their OC for two seasons. This will be his third.

Indianapolis lost Nick Sirianni. Frank Reich is still the head coach but they promoted Marcus Brady from quarterback coach to offensive coordinator. We got Miami. Is calling plays? I think so. I think Frank Reich calls plays.

In both Houston and India, I think it's more about the personnel changes that are that have happened in India and we'll see in Houston. But, you know, if Deshaun Watson still a quarterback in Houston, I wouldn't expect much to change. But with Carson Wentz replacing Philip Rivers, that is a pretty significant change in the abilities of the quarterback. Philip Rivers is one of the least mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. To Carson Wentz, who can make plays with his legs, I think one change we'll probably see is just fewer passes to the running backs in Indy, not necessarily because of the coaching change, but just because of the QB change. Well, and let me go back to Houston and just give you this stat. Houston, so I said Tim Kelly's been

their offensive coordinator for two seasons. 2019, defensively, Houston was 19th in scoring defense, and they were 12th in rush attempts. In 2020, they were horrible defensively. They were 27th in scoring defense, and they were 31st in rush attempts. So maybe that's something to keep in mind. They were 27th in scoring defense and they were 31st in rush attempts. So maybe that's something to keep in mind.

They were also last in plays. Houston ran the fewest plays last year, but they did average the most yards per play. I don't think Kelly was calling plays in 2019. Right, that's true. It was Bill O'Brien. And Houston's run-pass splits are always skewed by the fact that Watson runs so much

and the fact that he gets sacked so much. You're probably looking at 100 designed passes that turn into runs per season for Houston. If Watson's not there, it's a crowded backfield on a very bad team. Yeah, if Watson's not there, you just kind of

probably avoid that team, except for maybe Brandon Cooks. Okay, Miami's got two offensive coordinators who are the tight end and running backs coach. Philadelphia's got Nick Sirianni now and Shane Steichen as offensive coordinator. Matt Canada took over as the offensive coordinator for

Pittsburgh. The Seahawks have formerly the Rams passing game coordinator Shane Waldron. And San Francisco hired from within Mike McDaniel. He was their run game coordinator. Heath. Most interesting one here.

Kind of funny that the Seahawks hired a passing game coordinator. No, especially because it seemed like the issue with Schottenheimer was Pete Carroll wanted to run more. I don't. Yeah, I don't have any idea what Seattle's like fully going to do, Schottenheimer was Pete Carroll wanted to run more. I don't have any idea what Seattle's fully going to do, but I would anticipate that they will be a little bit more

creative in the way they use DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and their schemes will be a little bit more sophisticated in the passing game. It will be interesting to see how they involve the tight game. It will be interesting to see how they involve the tight ends, specifically which tight ends,

but that was at times a big part of the Rams thing. The one thing you would think that you would learn from being with Sean McVay and the Rams is not to really have tendencies that make it easy for us

to project what you're going to do. Speaking of tight ends, Gerald Everett said that's the reason he went there was because of the coach. Jamie, do you think Miles Sanders will be a

workhorse under Nick Sirianni? I think he'll be close to what we hoped he was going to be going into the season because look at the personnel. That's really, I think,

what it's more about. You know, I mean, they don't have another guy that profiles like him right now. It's not Boston Scott. Hold on. Let me...

Hey, Siri. Will Miles Sanders be a workhorse under Nick Sirianni? That's a magic eight ball. Miles Sanders is a running back for the Eagles. That's all she knows. All right. Any thoughts on... I think you should be excited about Miles Sanders

going into, you know, hopefully a healthy season and little competition as of now. Okay. The Dolphins scare the crap out of me. And it might work. Like, this might be a new thing where teams decide this is – it really scares me. Why?

All this really could be is giving two guys a title. The one you got to worry about is who's calling plays. If they're both calling plays in a game situation, you're the first half guy, you're the second half guy, you take quarters one and three, I'll take quarters two and four. That's the problem. No way. But, you know, I mean, there are guys all around the league

that have assistant head coaching titles that they don't have any influence on the play calling on game day unless they're a coordinator. So I think from what I understand, Chad O'Shea is going to be the one calling the plays. So as long as he does what he should be able to do, which is, you know, continue to give whoever the running back is there the amount of touches that we saw last year because it was great. Gaskin was great when he was healthy. Savan Ahmed, when he got his opportunity, was great. It was only after they got past the Jordan Howard crap to start the season, then that guy became really good.

Yeah, and it was kind of like Jacksonville in that, you know, when Myles Gaskin was healthy, when Savan Ahmed was healthy, when Gaskin wasn't, it was mostly just one running back playing 70% of the snaps and getting 85% of the touches. This was actually in situation neutral context, this was actually the 10th pass happiest team in the NFL. They ran the ball more than that makes it seem

because they had so many situations where the defense put them in a good spot and they didn't have to throw the ball. But the Dolphins actually, you know, in neutral situations, so the score within seven points, they threw the ball 58.3% of the time. Yeah, by the way, Jamie, not Chad O'Shea. seven points. They threw the ball 58.3% of the time. Yeah. By the way, Jamie, not Chad O'Shea.

If he's, he was their former OC. He got fired. Um, but it's Studisville and God see that are taking over. Uh, he, so he was their offensive coordinator.

He's now on the Browns coaching staff. Yeah. Studisville is who I'm thinking of. Okay. Yeah. So he's the running backs coach that is one of their co-offensive coordinators. All right. Finally, the Atlanta Falcons. The

Falcons will be a blank offense this year. Heath? I am currently projecting them to be a more run heavy than league average offense. That's a weird sentence. The Falcons will be a,

I am currently projecting them to be, well, I don't know. Like I would assume they're going to be a fairly successful offense. They have lots of talent, except at running back. The question is, are they going to be a passing offense

or a running offense? The draft will help mold my feelings on that, but right now I'm still projecting them to be the most pass-heavy offense that Arthur Smith has ever led and a more run-heavy offense than league average. And Chris? I still think, given the personnel, given what they've been,

I don't think they're going to be a particularly run-heavy team. You have them projected for the most pass attempts in the NFL, right? I believe so, yeah. Maybe I can come down from that, but given what it looks like right now, I just have a hard time seeing a team with Mike Davis, Hill and Edo Smith running the ball 450 times I want I just think that would kind of be a bad idea like I just don't think that's the the best usage of your offense and my assumption is generally especially with a guy like Arthur Smith who's been really good or

had a lot of success as an OC so far is that he's going to fit his approach to the players he has rather than the other way around. I don't think if he had been the Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator the last two years instead of the Titans, that Todd Gurley would have rushed the ball 330 times or whatever Derrick Henry did last season. Chris, were you a fan of the OC that show?

The first season is really good. Yeah? Yeah. Yeah. I just don't think I've ever seen it. I was a big

Phantom Planet fan. It became my favorite band in high school actually. A great, unbelievable soundtrack in season one especially in the OC.

Very good. I've never seen an episode. I've heard the theme song. Jamie, who runs the ball more? Non-quarterback runs. Who runs the ball more? Non-quarterback runs. Who runs the ball more?

The Seahawks or the Falcons? The Seahawks. Okay. Now I've got to look and see who I have more projected for more runs. Barring a shock in the first round, you know, I mean, the Falcons could trade down

and then they get Najee Harris and then that probably changes some things. I saw a mock today. They didn't have any running backs in the first round. Yeah, it was Daniel Jeremiah. But if you read it, like he said, with Pittsburgh, there's a spot they can go running back, but he had them taking an offensive line. That was the first thing I looked at because the headline I saw

said no running backs in the first round. So I went to the teams that needed running back help. Yeah, I've got the Seahawks running the ball roughly 80 times more than the Falcons. Wow. It's just a matter, again, it's personnel. So if it's just Mike Davis, they're clearly going to run the ball more regardless

because of the coach. That goes without saying. You have to take pressure off of Matt Ryan. You have to take pressure off of what this team looks like right now. But they can still go offensive tackle at four in the NFL draft, upgrade their offensive line, come back and get a day two or day three running back, and that guy can still be their featured option.

Yeah. Obviously, it's so hard to talk about the draft because teams are going to trade into the first round or move around and have picks that we didn't anticipate. But right now Pittsburgh at 24. The Jets at 23. Pittsburgh at 24. Jacksonville at 25. Falcons could move down. Buffalo at 30.

Maybe Kansas City will pick another running back at 31. The thing about Arthur Smith is he's coming from a situation where, as the offense coordinator, that team was very successful. And so do you go away from what your identity is as a play caller? And so that's what we're going to find out. To Chris's point, does he take the tools that he has and make that work,

or does he make his system work based on what the personnel could be? So until we see what they do with their running back situation, if it's currently constructed as it is, then you should love Mike Davis because he probably is going to get a lot of work, but if it changes, then who knows? Well, I am going to go make some ad drops to the team that Jamie and I share. Jamie, you'll see it in the waiver report tomorrow. Thank you.

Yeah. You're very welcome. And, uh, well, thank you all for listening to today's show. We'll come in. We're coming back on Thursday.

We're gonna have Emory hunt joining us to break down the quarterback prospects in the NFL draft and on fantasy football today in five, Emory hunt will be on Thursday and Friday to talk about some of the wide receivers. Last week, he talked about, uh, six or seven of the best wide receivers in the NFL draft. Now we'll talk about maybe the the wide receivers. Last week, he talked about six or seven of the

best wide receivers in the NFL draft. Now we'll talk about maybe the guys that are going to go in rounds two and three. Maybe some will sneak into round one. You never know what order they're going to be drafted in, but check that out on Fantasy Football Today in five. And by the way, before I go, I have to remind you about the First Cut podcast. This is a big golf week, obviously. It's Masters week. The First Cut golf podcast is where their entire crew will be previewing this year's tournament. Storylines, the picks, even daily fantasy advice. The First Cut has you covered.

The First Cut golf podcast is available wherever you're listening to this podcast. See you later, everybody. We'll talk to you on Thursday with Henry Hunt.