Fantasy Football Today - Regression Alert! Achane, Kamara, Purdy and Many More (06/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 10, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts A very detailed and constructive discussion about regression candidates. We explain what regression is and which players really stand out (1:40). Adam also apologizes for his Tom Cruise take (5:25) and then we've got some quick news and notes (9:05) before we get into the meat of the show ... Quarterback regression candidates include Jordan Love (15:55) and Brock Purdy (23:25). Love's regression is more subtle but there are reasons to doubt the touchdowns. We touch briefly on Patrick Mahomes and spend some time on Trevor Lawrence (30:05) and why he may have some hidden appeal ... Running back regression candidates include the Dolphins RBs (41:10), Gus Edwards and Tony Pollard (51:35), plus three RBs who should score more TDs (1:00:00). Within that last group is Alvin Kamara and it's easy to see how Kamara could have a huge season ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. I've got some stats that are going to knock your socks off. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today. We're talking about regression today. We're talking about James Cook's touchdowns, for example. He only scored two last season. Well, how about this? Over the last two seasons, Detroit Lions running backs have scored 31 touchdowns from inside the five-yard line. 31 for Detroit over the last two seasons from inside the five-yard line. Buffalo running backs in the last six seasons

have scored only 27 rushing touchdowns from inside the five-yard line. That is the fewest in the NFL. Everybody's socks still on? Yes. Okay. Those stats made sense. Alvin Kamara, 11 rushing touchdowns in 41 games

over the last three seasons. The year before that, he scored 16 touchdowns, 16 rushing touchdowns. He has 11 in the last 41 games. Sock status? On. On. It kind of sounds like touchdowns are kind of variable. Jordan Love led the Packers in rushing touchdowns with four.

Okay. Keep your socks on, everybody. But there we go. Just some of the stats coming across today. We're talking about... Heath, what is regression? Well, it means a lot of different things. But for today's purposes, what we're basically talking about is numbers from last year that are either well outside of football norms or well outside of a player's career norms and how those will regress back towards the mean notice i'm not saying they're going to get worse it could be the case that a quarterback

has thrown 32 touchdown pass between 30 and 35 touchdown passes four years in a row last year nothing was different except he threw 23 touchdown passes he would be a regression candidate to throw more touchdowns next season said as you did your, were there a few players that really stood out in terms of, I know you gave this a list of over 20 players, maybe 30 players today, but were there a few that really headlined the regression list? You know, I, I used to write an article about this and it probably stood out to me more then, but I think like the obvious ones are Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts rushing touchdowns. They ran for 15 and that's a good, like a good example that all regression is not equal. I don't necessarily project Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts to have the same amount of regression or

the same number of rushing touchdowns this year because Jalen Hurts career norm was 10 to 12 and Josh Allen's had been seven to eight. So we think that's going to impact Allen more than Hurts this year. But does anybody really... Who's the lowest on Allen? Does anybody have him outside the top three? I think I have him fourth. I know I have him fourth. I think I'm the lowest.

Okay. So in that case, is that because you expect eight rushing touchdowns? I think almost exactly, yes. Hi, Jamie. Hi. And hey, Dave. Welcome back to Dave and Heath. Dave, good to see

you. Dave was at Bears camp over the week. We'll hear about that. I forgot to put that in the notes. Chicago camp. Okay. How excited are you for our Panthers tonight, Adam? Are you on board too?

Are you on the bandwagon? I watched a hockey game on TV. They got absolutely dominated in that game and they won 3-0. We got to turn it around. We got to be better. It's not going to be so lucky tonight. We got to turn it around.

Yeah, actually, I was talking to Schaefer How I asked him how much he would spend for a ticket for tonight's game to the Stanley cup finals game too. And he said zero, he'd rather watch it on TV. How about you? Um, you know, I'm just buying one for myself. Yeah. 100 bucks no you're not going no i'm not going but i mean it used to be i could go to a panthers game for free whenever i wanted yeah right yeah all right well yeah let's go panthers um and remind me to tell you a very funny story off air he's okay he's got there's there's tickets related panthers and the celtics he's a busy man heath Cummings, every night. And I was going to wait to start watching baseball again until the Celtics were done winning the championship.

And then if the Royals are still in it, then I will. And then I see on the schedule the Yankees are coming to Kansas City for a four-game series. Like, what a week. We've got the Stanley Cup Finals. We've got two of the best teams in baseball going up against each other. It's going to be awesome.

Yeah, Seth Lugo on the hill tonight. Okay, anyway, I don't know when to bring up this, but I think it has to be now. If I'm going to say something as crazy as what I said... Oh, the Tom Cruise thing. I can't do it. as crazy as what I said. Oh, the Tom Cruise thing. I can't do it.

I can't do it going into a weekend. I got killed for three or four days on this. So I really felt like, you know, like you have a bad day, like a relief pitcher goes out and gives up a two-run homer in the eighth inning. You want to get out there the next day and pitch. So I really, it was a long layoff for me. run homer in the eighth inning you want to get out there the next day and pitch so i i really it was a long layoff for me and i said that tom cruise is not an action star uh i got a lot of

pushback from that but once upon a time what is he then he's a drama star but mission impossible has won a lot of uh best drama awards the whole series it started because i watched uh i had never seen any of them and i watched rogue nation uh last week and it was amazing it was so good um but like i don't i still i started watching the first one the original mission impossible i'm going to finish it hopefully probably tomorrow but i watched about half of it it's a great movie, but I guess what I should have said is that I don't think he's a tough guy.

And then I said, have you seen Jack Reacher? I will stand by that. I will stand by that. He also said that Martin Lawrence was more of an action star. I took that back. I took back Martin Lawrence. Martin Lawrence was a mistake.

Will Smith, yes. Martin Lawrence, no. I don't think he's a tough guy. I think he's like a nerdy action star. Oh, my. Oh, well. What is the easiest stunt that Tom Cruise has ever done? I don't know.

Put Adam Azer in that stunt and then we'll see. He would be an action star. Once upon upon a time we ranked our top action stars and i really don't think we ever said tom cruise like we went with the tough guys we went with that's okay he doesn't have to be one of the top action stars in movie history it'll be a really big time action star and he didn't even start his career i know nothing about tom cruise okay but like i know that his career didn't start with a ton of huge action movies what was he known for early in his career that's what i'm saying that was what i'm saying yeah an action movie but not according to adam he's not no he's not an action star in in top gun he's he's in a cockpit oh yeah

top gun is like it's action and drama his first his first big movie is is risky business but he actually played a football player that's a different kind of action rain man like that's what i think of when i think of tom cruise i don't think but now that's not now i'm gonna work early tom cruise not an actor star as much as late tom yeah somebody's bringing up last samurai that's the thing. But he's not like a butt kicker. You know, try not to curse here. But he's not that kind of action star.

I guess I was thinking more like a meathead. I was just trying to define the action genre without including Tom Cruise movies or superhero movies, which you also don't think are action movies. Yeah. That's a really interesting category. It's just Die Hard and Arnold movies, basically. No, but all right. All right, let's get to the show. I just want to apologize to Tom Cruise.

I'm very much enjoying Mission Impossible. I plan on watching all of them. It's terrific stuff. Just some news and notes. Actually, we're going to do basically a whole episode later this week on training camp storylines. So some of the things I'm going to say here, we won't really get, I don't know if I want to get into any of this, but cause I will save it for Thursday, but we should probably talk about Anthony Richardson. No one's worried about Anthony Richardson, right? We, I think we were talking when we had our, our medical show on Thursday, it was mentioned that he's going to

have some, some soreness and things like that. So Richardson had shoulder soreness, and Jamie, no big deal? No big deal. Okay. Jalen Hurts said 95% of the offense for the Eagles is new, which is really interesting. Guess what the 5% is. I got a pretty good idea. Well, one of the players that I'm most interested in in this is Dallas Goddard,

because one thing about him in the previous offense is that he's always on the field near the end zone, but he runs very few routes. And, you know, we're talking about regression and guys hopefully getting more touchdowns. Well, Goddard, that's always been a problem for him. But he's just not running routes near the end zone. And I have no idea if that will change, Dave.

But if that does change, and Goddard's used more like all the other relt fan or many of the other fantasy relevant tight ends that could, that could be very helpful. Of course, he'd be a great value in fantasy drafts. We just can't guarantee that that's something that's going to happen. And also what happens when the Eagles get inside the 10 inside the five, it's that 5% of the offense.

That's probably going to still be there. But that's a little bit of oversimplification because he's not doing the tush-push from the 7-yard line. But they now have Saquon Barkley in their backfield, and they still have Jalen Hurts at quarterback. So on the menu of options that Kellen Moore is going to call plays, how high up is play, action, throw on a short out to Dallas Goddard? Is that fifth on the list?

Is it eighth on the list? It's not going to be top three. Well, could he get seven touchdowns? If he can, then he's going to be a steal. Yeah, I'd be surprised. That's a lot, though. I think he could. Yeah, because last, he's never had more than five Dallas Goddard.

He has 22 touchdowns in 83 games. Okay. That's our Dallas Goddard discussion for today. Darren Waller retired. Heath, do you care about this from a Giants tight end perspective? Not really. But it makes me a little, like, I think if I was betting on who was going to play more steps and score more fantasy points, I would bet on Daniel Bellinger. But if there was a guy who had a chance to actually matter, it would be Theo Johnson.

I'm a little bit more excited about Theo Johnson in Dynasty drafts, maybe. OK, Saints running back Jamal Williams raved about Clint Kubiak, the new offensive coordinator, about his system. He compared it to when he used to face the 49ers when he was back on the Packers. So, you know, I've kind of brought that up. How 49ers-y will it be? Hopefully very. That almost makes me wonder if the teach tape that the Saints have

is all 49ers tape. Because what would Jamal Williams know about the 49ers offense? I think he compared it to, according to the ESPN article when Raheem Mostert ran for like 220 yards and four touchdowns against the Packers in the playoffs or something like that I could be getting the stats wrong basically the same offense yeah all right I'm just going to run through some other stuff here and I think we'll talk more about it on Thursday Zach Wilson has a chance to start for the Broncos, and in fact, a lot of these rookie quarterbacks, other than maybe the first two,

are not locks to start week one. Ty Chandler getting some hype in that Minnesota backfield. This is hype time. Brian Dable said Devin Singletary knows the offense inside and out. David Lombardi of the Athletics says Elijah Mitchell is the clear number two running back for San Francisco. I don't know if we ever talked about Robert Tunyon. It's been like three weeks, but he's on the Vikings.

They signed him. Apparently he had a great minicamp. Exactly. There's a lot of that going on. They got three guys vying for the backup spot. Sure, but it could be the starting spot, right, if Hawkinson's not ready. Correct.

Could have a streamer at tight end there. Tampa Bay signs Sterling Shepard. Taysom Hill was being used as a tailback with Alvin Kamara. He was not at the voluntary OTAs. Malik neighbors and Marvin Harrison getting a lot of buzz right now. And Kyler Murray, it's hard to take him seriously. He is praising everyone. Greg Dorch, Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison. He says he feels great. Bottom line is a lot of optimism. Kyler Murray feels good in year two of this offense right now. Greg Dorch's line was pretty good. What did he say? He'd be uncoverable?

If he was tall, he'd be uncoverable. Yeah. It's the same thing I said about Philip Dorch. I remember that. I remember that. I say it about myself, too. Yeah. Ricky Pearsall and Brock Purdy have had a good connection. This really needs to be taken seriously, this next one here.

Tennessee offensive coordinator Nick Holtz said the running backs for the Titans are interchangeable. He's a lot of guys. It's like the coach said that. I feel like the reporters say that. Why, you know, should Tony Pollard even be going ahead of, uh, Tajay Spears?

And if so, should it be more than a round? I think that he should still probably go two rounds earlier, but I think I might be the high guy on Pollard. I took him like in the sixth round on our most recent draft. I think, um, I still think it's more likely that Pollard scores more touchdowns and I'm

kind of believing Pollard that he wasn't 100% the first half of last year. Heath is team Titan. Yeah. And Dave, give me 30 seconds on the most interesting thing you saw at Bears camp. The most interesting thing that I saw at Bears camp was Caleb Williams throwing very well, good accuracy, whether it's on the run or from the pocket, one egregiously bad throw over three days. And Romo Dunze had awesome chemistry. So did DJ Moore. Those two for sure with Caleb Williams.

We're going to take a break. We're going to talk about our regression candidates when we get back on Fantasy Football today. Fall is almost gone, but have you sipped enough Starbucks fall faves? Enough of the pumpkin spice latte, the cinnamony pumpkin flavored legend, or the new iced apple crisp non-dairy chai. So silky, so smooth. How about the new pecan crunch oat latte? Nutty, buttery deliciousness and crunchy pecan flavor. Trick question, of course.

It's the last call for fall, so don't miss out on your fall faves. Next stop, Starbucks. Take back your free time with PC Express Online Grocery Delivery and Pickup. Score in-store promos, PC Optimum points, and more free time. And still get groceries. Shop now at pcexpress.ca. Regression candidates provided by Heath. Thank you you heath for doing this work for me hopefully i could provide some good stats to help the discussion here jordan love at quarterback

it's jordan love and his touchdowns rushing and passing he had 32 passing touchdowns which i think were second most in the nfl uh yes he had the fifth highest touchdown rate and he led his team with four rushing touchdowns brock purdy he said everything he's going to regress he was super efficient uh patrick mahomes everything too low trevor lawrence his touchdowns uh he had 30 30 uh excuse me 3.7 touchdown rate 21st among qualified quarterbacks and then the rushing touchdowns for Allen and Hertz when you look at this list here Heath uh Jordan Love Purdy Mahomes Lawrence Allen and Hertz rushing touchdowns what what do you want to start with what really stands out the most and this list will self-destruct in five seconds yeah I think I end up lower on love and I'm not necessarily on this show I think we all have a pretty decent spot.

But a little lower on Love in Dynasty and maybe in Redraft than people would like for me to be. And I just think it's worth noting that his passing touchdown rate, 5.5%, was very, very good compared to basically all the rest of his passing metrics. And his rushing touchdown rate, four rushing touchdowns on 50 rush attempts, is just completely unsustainable. Sometimes we see Lamar Jackson with 150 rush attempts and four rushing touchdowns. So you shouldn't really expect, I don't think, either one of those touchdown totals to repeat.

So he's going to have to be better in terms of his efficiency in other places to be as good as he was last year for fantasy purposes but isn't this the offense though i mean this is this is what aaron rogers was doing too yep aaron rogers did do this i'm not quite as certain that aaron rogers also averaged more yards per attempt generally than jordan love i'm not quite ready to put jordan love on aaron rogers well i. I agree, but this is kind of what the system allows him to do. He's clearly not Aaron Rodgers, and he's got a long way to go to be Aaron Rodgers, but it's kind of, I think, what Matt LaFleur is putting him in position to sort of not repeat,

but be in the range, and that's the hope. I mean, look, four rushing touchdowns from him is probably hard to ask for again, but not unrealistic. I do think that he's got one of the more interesting receiving cores in the league. You know, when you factor in the tight ends, hopefully Tucker Kraft or Southeast End with a pectoral injury may not be ready at the start of training camp. But, I mean, I always go back to Christian Watson with this offense.

Like, if he's right and the symmetry between his legs is correct, then he could really be the alpha that this receiving core needs. Because Jaden Reed's numbers are not necessarily, I think he's somebody also with touchdowns, you know, it's hard to replicate, but it just feels like, you know, Matt LaFleur is going to allow Jordan Love to be, I think, in the 30 touchdown range again, which is fun. Well, you know, it'll be interesting to see how Josh Jacobs affects this because one thing that has been very consistent for the five seasons with Matt LaFleur has been there. They throw a lot in the – I think I had it in the red zone. Yeah, their red zone.

Red zone pass rate in five seasons, 7th, 15th, 6th, 12th, 6th. So they have more of a pass-heavy tendency when they get in the red zone. I didn't break it down, green zone, inside the five-yard line or anything. But also with those rushing touchdowns, their running backs were putrid near the goal line.

You know, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon had two touchdowns. Each Jordan love had four or three of them were from one to two yards out. So, you know, certainly I, you know, I just think Keith,

when you look at like 32 touchdowns for rushing touchdowns of this list, it's not the most obvious one. You know, you pointed it out that it's sort of like in comparison to his other stats, which is interesting, but it's not the most obvious ones. On paper, 32 touchdowns feels repeatable to me, the passing touchdowns. Yeah, and I think if Jamie brought up Rodgers,

if you look at Rodgers' four years with LeFleur, I believe, and it was a 4.6, 4.8 in two of the years in terms of touchdown rate, and both of those years he threw 26 touchdown passes, And both of those years, he threw 26 touchdown passes. And then the other two years, he had a 7 and a 9, and a 37 and 48 touchdown passes. Like, if Aaron Rodgers can be at 26 in two of his four seasons with LeFleur, I don't think – like, yes, 32 might be repeatable. But if he loses two rushing touchdowns,

which is probably what you would expect, and three of those passing touchdowns, it makes a pretty big difference. Yeah. Okay. I'll just go back to the Josh Jacobs point. Like, do you think Jacobs, who's still in his prime, is going to be treated differently than Aaron Jones in his prime? Yes.

He could definitely be more successful. Well, I think he'll be a different back. He'll have more carries. Okay. Well, that's what I think. I don't know. Do you think that? He's more of a carry guy than Jones.

Yeah, no, I mean, he should have more success near the goal line. He should have more opportunities to, you know, probably keep A.J. Dillon off the field in that regard, where Aaron Jones was losing some of those touches in the last couple of years. But then you have the Marshawn Lloyd factor. Let's see how much he plays to sort of take away from both of them in whatever category. But I, I'm just thinking from like a usage standpoint,

I don't, I don't necessarily think that the way that they treated Aaron Jones, they treated him as for the most part as a feature guy. Sorry. Let me clarify what I meant. Sorry. You only had four rushing touchdowns from the running backs last year. They obviously weren't very successful.

Well, Dylan sucked and Jones missed so much. Well, but they had 13 carries from inside the five-yard line, and they scored three touchdowns on those carries. They picked up five yards on those carries. Yeah, I didn't break this part down. Like, I know with the Eagles, for example, you had Miles Sanders, or sorry, DeAndre Swift getting stopped at the one-yard line five or six times and Jalen Hurts scoring every single time with a tush push after that.

I don't know what the deal was with Love, but I'm just wondering if you have a team that scores more rushing touchdowns, if Jacobs does better there, does that take away from Jordan Love? That's what I was thinking. It should, in theory. Yeah. It'll take away from jordan love that's what i was it should it should in theory yeah it'll it'll take away the rushing touchdowns and i i think this is accurate like what i'm looking at says jordan love had three rush attempts inside the five yard line and scored on all three of them all from one to two that yards out though right sure and he'll he might do that one or two times

this year and that's it and he maybe he gets like one more scramble from like the seven yard line. So I think the regression for the rushing touchdowns, it's, it might be minimal, but I think it's there. I think the passing touchdowns two per game, the way that he finished last year, including the playoffs, he averaged something like 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. I think he looked great in the second half of the year. I thought he looked pretty decent in the first half before he had a bad spell. He attempted 34 passes per game. That was 10th best. His efficiency across the board was mostly good, except for one thing. His completion rate was 64%. That was 20th. I think he can improve there. I think he can throw fewer interceptions, and I think he can throw deeper a little bit

more. He talked this past week about how he doesn't have a number one receiver in his offense. And he likes that. I think that's a good thing too. I think he's set up for a really good year. I think he's someone that's deserving to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Heath,

if Brock Purdy had, you know, this unbelievable season, uh, what was the highest yards per attempt? 9.6 yards per attempt. Highest since Ryan Tannehill averaged 9.6 yards per attempt in 2019. And he finished his QB six per game, not including Carson Wentz or Joe Flacco.

And he scored 22.4 points per game and six points for passing touchdown leagues, which is not a number that really blows you out of the water. What does that say about his ceiling in 2024? Oh, I, I was, I thought you were going to say, what does that mean if he just is even kind of normal this year?

And it means he's probably not a top 12 quarterback. I think we saw Brock Purdy ceiling last year and it was a good ceiling. It's not a great ceiling, but I, I, I really, ceiling last year and it was a good ceiling it's not a great ceiling but i i i really i guess the way i could see it would be as if the whole 49ers defense got hurt or if the 49ers defense did what the eagles did last year and it was just all of a sudden terrible and so he for some reason had to throw more but he threw 444 passes last year in 16 games. There's just not enough volume to sustain that.

You could go through the guys who have averaged 9.5 yards per attempt. I think Mahomes had a 9-yard per attempt season. Nobody comes close to repeating that. The thing that's hard to factor with Purdy is the Shanahan effect and how good he made Jimmy Garoppolo in terms of efficiency and the fact that he's now got back-to-back seasons of a 7% touchdown rate, I don't generally project anyone over 6%.

Rodgers is one of the best of all times in that regard, and he's right around 6%. Mahomes, Russell Wilson, too. So he has the ability probably this year to just set a new bar for that number, and maybe he can continue to throw 30 touchdown passes on 440 attempts. But Jordan loves kind of whispers regression in terms of the passing touchdowns.

If it's anybody, but Brock Purdy and a Shanahan offense, Purdy's just screams it. Question about the attempts though, as you lower his efficiency efficiency do you raise his attempts yes i yeah i've got him at uh 509 at 8.2 yards per attempt which is the highest mark i project for any quarterback in the nfl this year do you have a number on how many attempts per game that is i could divide 509 by 17 i think it would be like 29.9.

Okay. And that's like right in the wheelhouse where the Niners have been each of the last three years on a per game basis. Holy moly. Heath. Yeah.

Nice. 29.94. Very nice. Well, 17 times three is 51. So it's pretty easy math. They were at 28.9 last year and 30 basically each of the two years prior. You are the Tom Cruise easy math. They were at 28.9 last year and 30, basically, each of the two years prior. You are the Tom Cruise of math.

Okay, who's worried? Jamie, are you worried about, you know, Purdy's being drafted, but probably around QB 12. But do you think the fact that he finished his QB 6 last year with that incredibly efficient season, 9.5 yards per attempt, 9.6 eye popping, you know, does that mean that he doesn't, that was his, do you think he hit his ceiling last year about 22.4 points per game in six point leagues? I think that's fair to say, you know, I mean, look, it's a good number. It's not like he's going to, I think any surprise anybody and get into the top

five, barring a bunch of injuries or just really poor play from the quarterback position. But to me, he feels like one of the safer starters, you know? So if you, you know, like Dave said, top 10 for Jordan Love, you see where he is in our consensus rankings. If you're watching on YouTube, he's 10th. So the two guys ahead of him are not as safe as Brock Purdy and Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray. We know that based on the injuries that they've dealt with, you know, one year for Richardson and two years ago with Murray suffering the ACL tear. You know, I, I, for me, Purdy's behind the two rookie quarterbacks, mostly for two reasons. One, I think there's more upside for those two guys if they hit their ceilings. Uh, but two, and this is my downfalls. I fall for the shiny new toy at this position all

the time. And so I think the upside of Jayden Daniels, if he runs for what he's capable of doing with that part of his game is going to be better than Purdy and I think Caleb Williams has just as good of weapons maybe not as good a system but good at weapons as the 49ers do if those guys all hit in the passing game perspective so I'm I'm buying the upside of those two guys versus Purdy I think kind of living at that 22 point range but again I you know if you draft and wait on the position, this is the perfect guy to target because he's shown you that he can get you 20 points per game. If he can get you a little bit more consistently closer to 24, 25 points per game, then he'll sort of stay in this range. He's mentioned the defense falling off. The Super Bowl hangover has been a problem throughout the course of history in the NFL.

McCaffrey's at an age where you have to be a little bit concerned what happens to him you know Adam you mentioned Elijah Mitchell and we talked about this that last week that Mitchell isn't the same pass catching back so the offense changes a little bit if McCaffrey's not in there and then they gave him a first round rookie receiver who you just mentioned in the notes is getting rave reviews so does that change things you know, what Kyle Shanahan wants to do? And I know they lost their offense coordinator, but it's really Shanahan's offense. So it doesn't really matter. So Purdy, I think is, you know, should his number, his passing touchdown should come down. I think he might, as he alluded to, see an uptick in past attempts.

And hopefully that leads to a few more yards and a few more big plays because of how this offense operates so you know if 22 is the ceiling you should be perfectly fine with that okay yeah you know the funny thing about 22.4 fantasy points per game over the last two seasons that's a top six quarterback in 2020 and 2021 it's 12th and 14th. So it could be for Purdy that his season sort of depends on how everyone else does. If we get back to the passing standards that we had,

or if the last two years are going to be more like, you know, what we see going forward. But yeah, so that's really hard to predict. All right. How about Trevor how about Trevor Lawrence being on this list? I don't know that we need to get into the, uh, the rushing touchdowns for Allen and Hertz, but you also had my homes and do you all rank my homes as number one and

six point for passing touchdown leagues? Yes. Yes. And, and regression is the reason why I think, I mean, the, the, the weapons lead to the regression why, I think. I mean, the weapons lead to the regression, hopefully, but yes. Yeah, Patrick Mahomes threw three touchdown passes of 20 or more yards last year. Three. That's unbelievable. He only threw seven the year before, but he was still the number one quarterback.

But very low air yards per pass attempt. They obviously want to get the vertical passing game going. Marquise Brown, Xavier Worthy, it will help uh so let's talk about lawrence and what you expect why is he on this list as touchdown regression for trevor lawrence well we've always hoped that at some point trevor lawrence would start throwing more touchdowns and his second year in the league he actually got to almost average 4.3 touchdown rate through 25 touchdowns on 584 attempts. Was about the same pace last year in terms of pass attempts per game, actually just a little bit more. And the touchdown rate fell to 3.7, which is just about as low as you'd project for even a rookie, a mediocre rookie at that.

And we can all remember that that happened in a really weird way. Calvin Ridley standing out of bounds, guys bobbling balls out of bounds, Lawrence just missing. I was obviously, I've been pretty down on Lawrence for the last

year, but I'm more encouraged. I think he'll be a borderline QB one and has a little bit more upside than where he's being drafted right now. Dave, Jamie, you want to jump in there on Trevor Lawrence? Sure. I mean, I agree for the most part. I think the receiving core is the biggest thing that he's going to have to get some help from because Calvin Ridley was a good player. If you want to classify him was a good player uh if you want to classify him as a great player that just had some unlucky had some unlucky situations and

and just general um mishaps and and obvious missteps but i think losing christian kirk when he did was a big problem uh lawrence was playing injured for the second half of the season you know there's some people in jacksonville thought that he should have sat out instead of trying to play through the ankle and the injuries. The offensive line will definitely be better. Having Cam Robinson for a full season, Ezra Cleveland for a full season, I think those two things will definitely help.

I think what is the hope I have for Lawrence is this is the proof of year. It was okay. You had the urban year. We all threw that out., your rookie season. Uh, we thought that he was on the verge, you know, I know Heath was sort of pushing back on this and rightfully so, but we thought that he was on the verge of taking the next step last year because of how the end of the previous year finished the first year under Doug Peterson.

And it's, it's on him now, you know, it's, you can't just keep blaming the coaches, you know, he's going to have to step up and I think he will know I'm kind of excited about him as one of the best sec number two quarterbacks you can draft. No, I don't think you should be drafting as a number one guy, but you know, again, if you want to, you know, go, go for the upside plays of, of what Daniels and Caleb Williams could be, I would pair him with Kirk with, with Trevor Lawrence. I have no issues. So don't forget about Mitch Morse on that offensive line, because I think that that's another addition as Another addition. Yeah. Well, yeah.

So that offensive line should be fortified, should be stronger. That absolutely will help with Trevor Lawrence. Here's my problem. Then you mentioned the upside, Jamie. I could give you the names of two rookies, three veterans, and I would say that they all have more upside than Trevor Lawrence. And that just leads me to push him farther and farther down my quarterback rankings, especially when you think about who he's throwing to.

The Jane Daniels, Caleb Williams, you said Jamie's shiny new toys. I'd rather take them ahead of Trevor Lawrence. Justin Herbert, I know he's not in the offense that we love. I know we don't love his wide receivers. I know what he's capable of doing. I would take him ahead of Trevor Lawrence. And then two old guys, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, just love their receiving court. Love what they've been able to do before. It might be closer with those two and Trevor Lawrence, but I would take

them over Trevor Lawrence. It wouldn't surprise me if there were 10 team leagues this summer where Lawrence doesn't even get drafted. Yeah. We've had, we've had 12 team drafts where he doesn't like goes in the final round so i think that's that's accurate um i don't know what their schedule looks like but i i can tell you i think it's a pretty good value they open the year at miami and then cleveland buffalo houston after that it's not the best start now i i want to i want to uh i want to confess something. I missed a little bit of what Heath was saying because I was texting our producer, Thomas, and I said,

we're going to change the schedule for the week because I'm very much enjoying this show right now, and I don't want a short change. We're not going to get to all four positions. Did we knock your socks off? You did. You did, yes. My bombas.

Oh, actually, I am wearing Yoshi socks today. I have Yoshi. Bombas are fantastic. Bombas are great. They're like giving your feet a hug. But we're going to do quarterbacks and running backs today, and we'll do wide receivers and tight ends tomorrow because I think instead of just rushing through positions,

this is a good discussion. But for Lawrence, I want to know if you mentioned the fact that he barely threw in the red zone. He was eighth in pass attempts. He was 18th in red zone attempts. He was 21st in green zone attempts. So hopefully that will help. He also stunk in the red zone. He completed 50% of his red zone passes.

But I think some of that, specifically that last thing you said, is very similar to the Patrick Mahomes threw more interceptions than he ever has. A lot of Trevor Lawrence's incompletions in the red zone hit two hands of a player on his own team. A lot of Patrick Mahomes' interceptions last year hit two hands of a player on his own team. Yeah, and then also for Lawrence, what about the fact, how do you project an increase in touchdowns when Calvin Ridley's not there? If Ridley were coming back, I think it would be easier to make the case. Calvin Ridley was a big, I mean. But he's better than Brian Thomas, right?

Last year, Calvin Ridley is probably better than this year's Brian Thomas, right? Yes. In theory, yes. So than this year's Brian Thomas, right? Yes. In theory, yes. So what do you do with that, Heath? I don't think last year's Calvin Ridley in the red. And I don't, like, I'm pretty high on Ridley as well. I'm team Titan, as Jamie said. And I thought he got better late in the year.

But I'm looking at what Calvin Ridley did in the red zone last year. No, I don't think that's necessarily better than what Gabe Davis or Brian Thomas is goingley did in the red zone last year. No, I don't think that's necessarily better than what Gabe Davis or Brian Thomas is going to do in the red zone this year because Calvin Ridley dropped balls in the end zone and caught balls standing on the end line. And he just, he was really, really,

I think probably rusty and not very good in the beginning of the year. Can Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis be what Zay Jones was two years ago? Yeah. I would hope so. You would, you would easily say combine. Yes. I don't think so.

And so I think that's how you view them, right? Cause Trevor Lawrence at 2022 is better. Then he was in 2023. Yeah, for sure. And that's what you're replacing, because Ridley wasn't there. Was he better, though?

Honestly, I don't know. I know that he had a great stretch. The touchdowns were definitely better. He averaged 20 points per game. He averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game in 2022. Right. I mean, you know, it was an up-and-down season as well. At the end of the year, he got hot. It was from a club on 24 points per game in 2022. Right. I mean, you know, it was an up and down season as well. At the end of the year, he

got hot. It was from a club on 24 points per game. Overall, he did average one more fantasy point per game. Okay. That's going to, in 22, then he did in 2023. That is going to conclude our quarterback discussion. I said we'll do wide receivers and tight ends tomorrow. It might have to push it to Thursday because Heath does

have the Dynasty show tomorrow, but we'll do running backs after the break and we will do the, uh, the training camp stuff. Uh, yeah, I was, I was going to get rid of that.

So our other topics this week, we have a best ball show on Wednesday. It's not training at minicamp, whatever. Minicamp. Yeah. Right. Uh,

we have, if you wanted to, you could push it to the week after we have a best ball show on Wednesday. We have, now we have another regression show coming up. It's either going to be Tuesday or Thursday. And then the other show we're going to break down pacheco james cook josh jacobs derrick henry rashad white and really kind of make sure you feel comfortable knowing who you want to take in that range and a little bit deeper than that as well and uh but but we're going to finish up with running back regression candidates after this break. Miller Lite, the light beer brewed for people who love the taste

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Download Bumble and try it for yourself. Heath, did you watch episode one of Mare of Kingstown? I did. It was fantastic. I was very happy with it. Yeah, me too. Me too. Looks like we have a really good bad guy.

This guy, this older dude in prison, he seems like he's going to really hurt a lot of people. Yeah, I don't think we're supposed to be giving spoilers quite yet. No, I don't think that's a spoiler. Obviously, when you meet him, I mean, he's just like, ooh, this guy's going to be really bad. He's going to do some really mean things to people. Okay, running back regression.

Okay, if you had to throw an action star into the prison in Kingstown, you wouldn't throw Tom Cruise in there. That's all I'm saying. You'd put Arnold in there. You go watch Jack Reacher first before you say these things. All right. We got a two for one here at running back with both of the Dolphins running backs. Mostert entered 2023 with 14 rushing touchdowns, and then he scored 18 in 2023.

A-Chan, he's put everything is going to regress for A-Chan. Gus Edwards had 13 rushing touchdowns. He entered 2023 with 13 career rushing touchdowns, and he matched that in one season. Tony Pollard will regress positively. James Cook, that's an interesting one because he has never done it, but you're basically saying, like, you know,

running back norms. Even, like, he has never done it, but his touchdown per rush attempt rate was much better in his first year. Okay. He just didn't have, he scored the same number of touchdowns, just didn't have very many rush attempts.

And we'll talk about Alvin Kamara and his rushing touchdowns and Jalen Warren's touchdowns as well. But let's start with the Dolphins, guys, Heath, and what we need to know about Mostert and A-Chan and their regression. First off, I don't know how certain we should be about the run game in Miami or even offensive scheme being exactly the same as it was last year. Two years ago, they had 30 pass touchdowns and 12 rush touchdowns. Last year, they had 30 pass touchdowns and 27 rushing touchdowns. But for

Mostert, obviously, it's... And I think we've talked about HNs, but he actually had a very similar rate of touchdown scoring. He just also averaged eight yards per rush attempt and 7.7 yards per touch. And we just know that those things are not sustainable. I don't know. Do you even factor in the fact that there were three running backs last year

who had three or more receiving touchdowns with less than 40 targets. And these were two of them, A-Chan and Mostert. The other was Jarek McKinnon. So we get two or three of those a year, running backs who score three or four receiving touchdowns with fewer than 40 targets.

And the Dolphins guys, both of them got that too. Well, and I think it's like what Dave said on the Jordan Love situation. The receiving touchdowns we know are going to regress or are more confident are going to regress, but they don't matter as much because there was only three of them last year. So from an actual fantasy, like Jalen Warren, I think, had 60 catches or something and did not score a receiving touchdown. Josh Jacobs has literally never scored a receiving touchdown.

Yeah. I will say, though, I'll take A-Chan with three receiving touchdowns, but has literally never scored a receiving touchdown. Yeah. I will say, though, I'll take A-Chan with three receiving touchdowns, but a lot more targets this year. Fair? Same. I am not confident

that A-Chan's going to see a big increase in workload. A lot more targets per game or a lot more targets in volume because he missed a lot of time. Volume. He didn't have four. He had 37 targets

in 11 games. 11 games in quotes. How many full games did H.A. If you want, we can laser stat it, but let's ballpark it at three per game. I don't even know how to answer that question. but let's ballpark it at three per game. I just,

I don't even know when you take how to answer that question. And maybe that's the way that he regresses that he becomes a full-time player, but like how many full games did he have? Does the playoff game against the chiefs count as a full game? He played 38% of the snaps. I think so. I mean,

if you want me to go and figure this out real quick i can no i mean look here's the bottom line with a-chan right we don't know enough about him where people are are drafting him because they've seen it this is an eyeball test guy not a projections guy right i mean you don't know how to project him but you've seen how damn good he is and you believe in the offense right so i would say people are probably if good he is and you believe in the offense, right? So I would say people are probably, if you're drafting HN in the second or third round, I haven't seen a lot of second, but I don't really know what ADP will end up, but let's say you're drafting him in the third round. I doubt you're doing it because you love his projection. That's just a guess. You're

probably doing it because you love his talent. Correct. Sure. That's part of it, obviously. And then the other thing is that the the headlines and rumors coming out from the offseason are interesting on hn first of all it looks like he's put on a little bit of muscle i don't know if that's necessarily something that we running backs that could be problematic but i think it's being done to make him be more available which is part of the equation that we're talking about for partial games that he played and all that stuff. The Dolphins want him available.

And I've heard rumors, and apparently it's come out in minicamp, he's being used a little bit more in the passing game. And I just looked. Ten games last year, including the playoffs, Heath, where he played at least 38% of the snaps, he had a total of 41 targets. That does include one game with nine targets. That was the Titans game on Monday night, I think it was.

Oh, Tyreek Hill got hurt in that game. Sure. So they needed somebody to come in and be just an easy short area target, I guess. But A-Chan got nine targets in that game. He didn't have any other games with more than five. Could he average three and a half targets per game? If it comes down to training camp that he's being used more out of the backfield and catching passes from Tua and all that stuff, then sure. If that's the case, then that probably

means that he's going to lose a lot of rush attempts as long as most are healthy. The targets question is the same question as everything for me with HN. Besides that nine-target game where Tyreek got hurt, I'm taking everybody's word for that. That sounds right, though. It was right before the Jets game. His targets, games where he had more than four targets, the margin of victory was 50, 28, 30. I can't even do that math.

37, I think. 509 by 17. Well, how do you even project the Dolphins backfield? Maybe that's the question here, Heath. No, but this is to Heath's point, and I'm actually just going to let Heath finish this when it comes to workload and the type of game script that A-Chan has.

Go ahead. Yeah, he basically was a full-time player when they played in a blowout. And I overlooked that a lot until, and I've said this too many times probably, the last two games of the season. They had a must-win game against the Bills, and he touched the ball 11 times.

They had a playoff game against the Chiefs, and he touched the ball nine times. It's true. You remember that Commanders game where we were worried about him? It was his first game back, and we were worried about what kind of workload he'd have on that field. I did too. And he went out there in the second half,

and it was like he was the entire offense in that blowout. They just let him go. And he did pretty, pretty well in that game. Yeah, I mean, look, I think if you're in the A-chan camp, you're banking on him taking over the backfield because he's behind a 32-year-old guy that was very successful last year, but those guys just don't typically hold up. And so that's the gamble because if Mostert is healthy,

it's not like A-chan's going to be the full-time guy. And then you have Jalen Wright, who they just drafted, and whatever role he's going to play. So it's like Adam said. I to be the full-time guy. And then you have Jalen right here. They just drafted and whatever role he's going to play. So it's, it's like Adam said, I think you summed it up best. You know, you're drafting him based on what your eyes have told you or shown you that

he could be one of the best running backs in football, but will he get those opportunities? And I want to bring up something else about that bills game. Cause the chiefs game was just this horrible game in cold weather. And the dolphins were completely inept Mostert played in that game. Mostert didn't even play in that Week 18 game against the Bills, and Jeff Wilson had nine carries, and A-Chan had 10.

But that's also, you think, trying to make sure A-Chan's okay. Yeah, right. I mean, you do have to wonder if they're ever going to let him be a 14 carry. I'm not even going to say like 17, just a 14 carry guy. I mean, he had 14 carries in three games last year. But you can take it to the bank that Mike McDaniel will always use multiple running backs. Always. Every week. And again, the three games where he had 14 carries, it's the same story.

It was a 50-point win over the Broncos. It was a 30-point win over same story. It was a 50-point win over the Broncos. It was a 30-point win over Washington. And it was a 37-point loss to the Ravens. Oh, I just wanted to look at some ADP with him. NFC, average draft position for A-chan since May 1st, 22nd overall. Right. There's definitely a push for people to grab him. They're gravitating toward him because of the upside.

Fantasy pros. This is fantasy pros where RB 10 is going in the fourth round. This is fantasy pros where wide receivers are going way ahead of running backs. Devon HN is RB seven. He's going 26th overall in PPR. So no, there there's a good case to be made to take him high

because if he gets that opportunity, he's going to shatter things. Even with reduced efficiency, even if he averages 5.5 yards per carry, if he gets 225 carries, that's a ton of rushing yards. And if he gets this increased role in the passing game, he's going to put up a ton of points. But there are so many factors that have to hit in order for that to happen. He's exciting.

If he mostars to the Cowboys tomorrow, A-Town would be a second-round pick. He might be an early second-round pick. Yeah. Mostert is RB28 in fantasy pros and in NFC. Mostert is going 93rd overall. I can look where he's going amongst running backs, but where would you guys take Mostert?

Round three. Mostert? But that means I'm not going to get him. Mostert, Mostert, Mostert. Oh, sorry, sorry, sorry. I'm saying A-Chan. I would take A-Chan in round three and Mostert in that round seven range. I'm around later on both. Round four and round eight. I think's i'm right where davis all right three and seven so if right now the adp is showing two and eight then i i definitely prefer most right and it's a

little rich to go after both of them well most i'm gonna lock up this amazing backfield i don't love that 28 on fantasy pros and 29 on nfc right now most so that i think dave's right it is i don't really want to spend a second and eighth round pick on the same backfield but i wouldn't mind spending an eighth round pick on most shirt and a 12th round pick on jalen Wright. Correct. I like that a lot. All right, Gus Edwards, 13 rushing touchdowns in 17 games. Yeah, what do you want to say about him? This is the most obvious. There's not very little to say. Does anybody want to draft Gus Edwards to score 13 touchdowns?

He's not involved in the passing game, and he's going to share work. And he's 30, or 29. He's not a top 100 pick, but Heath, since you obviously don't sound too high on Gus Edwards, are you okay drafting him after pick 100? Yes. Round 9-10 is fine.

Sounds like a little bit of a mic bobble going on. Just everybody be aware. Tony Pollard, four yards per carry last year, 5.7 yards per catch. He entered 2023 averaging an additional 1.1 yards per carry and 2.6.

Oh, I hope I'm doing that right. Yeah. 2.6 more yards per catch. He just had a horrible season. And we already talked about the Titans backfield a little bit here, but I'll throw it to you, Dave. Why don't you start on Tony Pollard, regressing toward hopefully better efficiency? I'm still worried that he's going to be off the field in passing downs

and splitting rushing downs. And that's not a good situation for a running back that you would be interested in taking in round six. He's quickly going to fall into one of those RB2 settle for guys where you'll begin the season with him as a starter and you'll hope that he holds up for the year and has enough touch, enough playing time to be productive from week to week.

But as long as Spears is going behind him, even if it's by only one round, that's the back that I'd rather have. Okay, Heath, what's the story here with one round, that's the back that I'd rather have. Okay. Heath, what's the story here with Pollard? What's the storyline? He had two more yards and three more rushing touchdowns on 60 fewer carries the year before. He had 60 more yards and three more receiving touchdowns on 12 fewer targets the year before.

I think he's going to score a better rate. He's going to be more efficient. And probably if he's sharing more with TyJay Spears, that probably helps him in terms of efficiency. How do you take a guy's career norms playing on this kind of offensive powerhouse with the Cowboys and apply it to Will Levis and the Titans, which are obviously a big unknown.

You project him to be worse than his career norms, but better than his worst year. See, this is where it gets tricky for me because I think the quarterback is definitely a downgrade. That's an easy one. But Bill Callahan coaching that offensive line now, and the additions that they made are going to be much better than what we saw from the Titans offensive line a year ago.

Now, obviously, Derrick Henry is a different type of player than anybody ever. But, you know, Pollard has an opportunity, I think, to surprise some people based on the things around him. And so to what Heath is talking about, will he be more efficient with less touches? That's the hope because that's what he was when he was sharing with Ezekiel Elliott two years ago. The question that I have is, A, what will they do at the goal line?

Because I think that's something that we've heard from almost everybody that wears a Titans hat. And B, what will the role be in the passing game? Because we know Spears was very good in that regard last year. And so if he's losing touchdown opportunities and he's definitely not being super involved in the passing, because he's going to be involved in the passing game, but if he's not going to be, you know, the dominant pass catcher, and, you know, we don't know if they're going to throw more on first, second down.

That was the, you know, you've got, you talked about this a lot, a lot, Adam, about Joe Mixon. That was definitely a staple of the Bengals offense, which is where Brian Callahan's coming from, you know? So will they throw to their backs on first and second down, where Joe Mixon was never a factor on third down? And that could easily be a success for Pollard. But it's just a matter of how much will Spears take him off the field in obvious passing situations? So I think the best approach is if you are in on this backfield, you just want the guy who goes last. Now, unfortunately, Pollard will probably go first, but we have seen some drafts where Spears did go ahead of Pollard

because people, I think, are just so anti-Pollard after what happened a year ago and think that he's not a really good player. So, right, Price, if they're going back-to-back, I would still lean Pollard. But I think you just want to get the guy maybe that goes later, especially if Spears goes more than two rounds behind Pollard. We're saying a lot of things that really kind of point back to the main thing, which is uncertainty. This is a new offense on a team that has been fun,

and it's going to be an ambiguous backfield. What's stopping Tennessee from saying, okay, Tony Pollard gets the first drive, Tajay gets the next drive. When one of the backs are tired, the other one will come back in. And whatever the role is, whatever the down is, it doesn't even matter because we can use them both the same. These guys are going to go out there and they're going to be able to compete on all three downs.

And we don't care as a coaching staff in Tennessee who does what. And so there isn't a defined role. Like I can still see Tajay Spears being the two-minute guy, but Tony Pollard's done that too. They could literally have no defined roles for these running backs. And when you start one of them each week, you're hoping that they're the fortuitous one on the field that happens to catch a touchdown or run for 25 yards, something like that. And that just makes me more frustrated in trying to project them and more likely to draft whoever I can get second in round seven plus so far that's been Spears.

So that's why I'm more excited about Spears. Yeah. I mean, based on early average draft position, I've, I've brought this up several times. I think Tajay Spears is one of the best values. He's not even a top 100 pick in early ADP.

And that's just wild. Yeah. Right. It's crazy. Totally ridiculous. It doesn't. And I've also made this comparison. When I think about Tajay Spears and the year he had and the player he looks like,

he reminds me a lot of Tony Pollard before last season, of what Tony Pollard used to be when he was in a committee with Zeke. Do you guys feel that way, that they're similar players? Yeah. Yeah. yeah yeah i mean i think i think they're explosive elusive and i think they can do i think they can both you know be the idea of pollard not being in the passing game that's what he was that he was really good in the passing game yeah i don't think that them being interchangeable doesn't tell me that they're going to take tony pollard off the field and

passing guns right it's just that either one of them can play on passing downs. But also, for both of them, again, if Callahan's offense mirrors anything that happened in Cincinnati, then they both should be involved in all facets of the passing game because of how they'll throw on first and second down. And these guys do have something that a lot of round seven, six, seven running backs don't. I think we'd all agree they both have much, much more upside if either gets hurt. I want to look into one thing, though. I don't think that the Bengals were all that pass heavy

on first and second down last year. I know they were two years ago, and that was a big... But that's with a healthy quarterback and receiving core, though. I mean, that's the year I would use. Okay, but remember, this is a team. I don't know that you can make the same comparison because when you have that vertical passing game of Burrow to Chase and Higgins, which Levis to Hopkins and Ridley on paper, hopefully could be something like that. But we obviously don't know it's going to be that way.

Teams were playing them a certain way that Joe Burrow was taking the easy and the short stuff. And the other thing is like Mixon just got all of the work on first and second down. They weren't a very run-heavy team, but because he had no competition, he got so many touches on first and second down, both on the ground and in the air. If you just look at, if you want to say,

oh, he's bringing his offense over, I don't think there are that many running back carries. So, you know, if they're splitting them evenly. No, no, no. I was just referring to, because you bring this up about Joe Mixon all the time, about what he was doing as a pass catcher, and it was not involved on third down situations only. Absolutely.

Because that's important. Because when we talk about pass catching backs, you were bringing this up in regard to Zach Moss and Chase Brown. It's the same thing here. I think whoever is going to be the quote-unquote starter which you would assume would be pollard but whoever's going to be the quote-unquote starter if they are taking somebody off the field and passing down in two-minute situations the guy that's still the starter is still going to have an opportunity to catch passes if callahan does something similar to what

he did in cincinnati even though he wasn't the main play caller yeah the bangles went from third in running back target i didn't look on first caller. Yeah. The Bengals went from third in running back target. I didn't look on first and second down. Sorry, but overall they went from third in running back targets in 2022 to 25th in 2023. But if you have a guy that, that plays as much as Mixon does, this isn't about Pollard and Spears necessarily, but just overall, it actually doesn't matter.

I mean, if he's going to catch almost all of their running back targets, then, you know, it actually doesn't matter. If he's going to catch almost all of their running back targets, then it doesn't matter, I guess, that they had such a big drop in targets. All right, sorry for the detour there. How about we'll lump the last... This is one of the... Like he said, I don't necessarily agree wholeheartedly that there's not a lot

of backs in the round seven plus range that if the starter got hurt, you'd take the the second guy because there is but there's certainly an opportunity here that you can draft both these guys relatively cheap and have maybe two flex plays you know a number two and a flex but you know we can get that from this backup let's talk about three running backs heath that you have touchdown regression for james cook scored two rushing four receiving touchdowns last year alvin camara scored five rushing touchdowns in 13 games he left one of those pretty early so he paid like 12 and a half games but i mentioned camara has 11 rushing

touchdowns in his last 41 games over three seasons and jaylen warren four rushing touchdowns no receiving touchdowns with 61 catches, 149 carries. So Cook, Kamara, and Warren is touchdown regression candidates. What do we need to know here? Well, just to give the James Cook information, you said he's not ever scored touchdowns, and you're right. But in 2022, he had two rushing touchdowns on 89 attempts. Last year, he had two rushing touchdowns on 237 attempts a guy who doesn't score that many touchdowns like maybe an Alvin Kamara if that's the the type of touchdown rate we think he's going

to have would still score three to four more touchdowns than James Cook did like he could score five to six touchdowns without getting a carry inside the five yard line um for Kamara it's not just the rushing touchdown. I think his receiving touchdowns were also quite a bit lower than what his career rate was at. It's just does age. Yeah, it was the first year that he had fewer than two receiving touchdowns since 2019. And he has four to five in about half the years of his career. Wow, yeah. One receiving touchdown on 75 catches. The guy was on a 100-catch pace, too. Alvin Kamara, honestly, if he plays decently,

could be a first-round pick. Full PPR, yeah. Right? I mean, he was number three per game last year or four per game last year or something like that. Almost 18 full PPR, yeah. Right? I mean, he was number three per game last year or four per game last year or something like that. Almost 18 full PPR points per game. And this is with bad regrets. Like, this is with numbers where he should be regressing a piece.

This is amazing. Yeah, I mean, but he's older. And despite what Adam says, Taysom Hill's still there. That's the biggest thing for me. And the fact that it's there it's it's like no you're not a tight end anymore you're not a quarterback anymore now you're a fullback tailback and we're going to give you carries maybe consistently especially in high leverage situations but i do think like the way that and derrick henry and camara's age is like we seem a

lot more scared about camara's age than we do Henry's. Are you sure? Because last year, Kamara was better than Henry. Right. But one of them has like more armor than a tank. And the other one is as skinny as a podcast host. So there's a difference between their build. And that's what makes, to me, that's what makes a difference.

But to me, I would put Taysom Hill as the number one reason to be nervous about Kamara, more so than his age. And the number one reason to be excited about Kamara is the new offense that's going into New Orleans. And the fact that it is a Shanahan West Coast offense type deal that should open up a lot of targets and catches, or at least keep it the same as where it's been. And that just makes it a PPR versus non-PPR story for Kamara. I'm much more excited about him in full PPR than I am half in non-PPR. I will say, like, he was 18 fantasy points per game last year with Taysom Hill on the team. Right. So I don't think that he's necessarily – I have a hard time saying that Hill's the biggest risk of him not being as good as he was last year when Hill was on the team last year.

The other thing that was much more egregious. Adam, you say you're 5'8", 5'9"? I mean, I say I'm 5'9". Don't ask my driver's license. But you're probably 5'7", 5'8". No. Can you tell everybody what you weigh? You know, I actually gained some weight and I dropped a little bit. Last time I checked was two days ago.

I was 146. Okay, so Dave said as skinny as a podcast host. I think I weigh twice as much as Adam Azer. Alvin Kamara is 5'10 and 215 pounds. So he's not quite as skinny as a podcast host. Yeah, there are a lot of 250 pound podcast hosts.

I try to dig into this a little bit more with Kamara, right? Basically, he's been a bad running back for the last three years by many metrics no more big plays yards per carry has been bad he's also been really really ineffective near the goal line so in the first four years of his career he scored on 68 percent of his carries in the last three years of his career camara has scored on 35 percent of his carries from inside the three yard line so almost a full inverse and remember like the saints used

to have a pretty good offensive line their line has been garbage they're trying to address it don't know that drafting one rookie is going to really help like they probably won't have a good line is my guess but he but he only played in 13 games last year. And again, he left week 17 early and yet he was still 12th amongst running backs in carries from inside the three yard line. So if he can just be scoring on like 50% of his carries from that distance

and obviously more than one receiving touchdown on 75 catches, over the last week and a half, I have basically put myself completely back in on Alvin Kamara. I am now a Kamara guy. At what spot, though? Where are you drafting? Middle of round three.

This is the best part. That show that we're doing tomorrow, at some point this week, where we talk about those running backs, I'm going to be very pro-Kamara, like ahead of Derrick Henry in full PPR for sure. I'm going to say ahead of Derrick Henry and half PPR. And that's fine.

If that's the player you want to compare him to, because, you know, again, age is a factor for both of them. I don't necessarily agree that the size is going to benefit Derrick Henry. That could be a problem for him because those type of players typically tend to break down.

I have a problem with him expecting, I have a problem expecting him to score more rushing touchdowns in the current version of what this offense is. I think that's part of what has happened to him is that they've realized he's that inefficient scoring touchdowns, which is why Taysom Hill has been so much more involved in that part of it. And so to Heath's point, Camaro was this good with Taysom Hill. He could easily do that again, but I don't think the rushing touchdowns are going to be the reason why I think it's going to be because of this receiving court could be absolutely

atrocious. I mean, like I like Rashid Shahid, that's their number two receiver. AT Perry's got a long way to go before he's a big part of this. Cedric Wilson's a guy that we know is bounced around the league. Not exactly the biggest playmaker, but means is somebody that, you know, has a long way to go to prove that he's a big part of this. Kamara is going to be most likely the number two, if not the number one pass catcher on this team, in terms of what the receptions are. I hope not for Chris Olave, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility. And so that's the plus for Alvin Kamara.

So I don't disagree with that, Adam. I just don't want to expect him to have that many receptions again. I'm hopeful he can, but I just don't want to expect it. So for me, he's a late round three, round four guy. I would still take Henry over him because I like the situation for Derek Henry going to the Ravens. He's been better when he's been, I was, well, nevermind. We'll talk about this tomorrow. He's just been better when he's been on winning, but I don't want to, I don't want to bog down what we're going to talk about next. And what I would just say to wrap it up is Camaro is one of those running backs that you will not

draft close to his ceiling. You're going to draft him amongst other running backs and wide receivers that you would expect maybe 15 PPR points per game from. And we know what Camara ceiling is. Even if you don't think he gets quite to 17 or 18 PPR points per game, you're still, you could still win with that by taking him in round four. If he's getting you 15 and a half PPR points per game. Yeah. I, yes. And, uh, I think the question I will leave you guys with that we'll talk about either tomorrow or Thursday, is there anything other than age that says we should draft James cook ahead of Alvin Camara and don't answer. We'll leave that as a little bit of a cliffhanger going into our next show. Keep in mind for Jalen Warren, I mean, he's a good addition to this list here. He's obviously a pretty late-round pick.

Zero receiving touchdowns on 61 catches. And 5.3 yards per carry. I mean, maybe he won't get that, but there's explosive plays there. So even if he doesn't have the goal line work, and he had four carries from inside the five-yard line, which isn't terrible. Najee had seven. There could be some long touchdowns there because Warren is really good and can make big plays. and he had four carries from inside the five yard line, which isn't terrible. Najee had seven. You know, there could be some,

some long touchdowns there because Warren is really good and can make big plays. Okay. Heath, I don't know if there's anything you feel like you need to add here. All right, we're good. It's a long show,

but I hope very informative and some fun discussions here about regression. Good to have Heath and Dave back. And hopefully we'll hear from Dan. It's some other show. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today. Dun-dun-dun. Dun-dun-dun. Dun-dun-dun. Dun-dun-dun.

Dun-dun-dun.