Fantasy Football Today - Regression Candidates for 2026! Stafford, McCaffrey, McBride, & More! (06/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 2, 2026

Adam, Heath, and Jamey identify the biggest fantasy football regression candidates for 2026, such as Matthew Stafford (16:08), Christian McCaffrey (28:00), Trey McBride (50:50) & more. From potential busts to undervalued draft targets, the crew analyzes the trends, stats, and situations that could lead to major shifts in fantasy production. Don't head into your draft without knowing which players could be overvalued, undervalued, or headed for dramatic changes this season. Tune in for all the insights you need to stay ahead of the competition in 2026!Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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CTNCs, 21 Plus. Sponsored by Chumba Casino. This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.

It's just going to go. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and he. Talking about regression candidates on fantasy football today here on Tuesday, June 2nd. What does that mean? Players that are going to regress to the mean, Matthew Stafford through 46 touchdown passes last year. He's probably not going to do that, although that was his second season out of five with the Rams, with a 6.8% touchdown rate or better. He, 6.8% touchdown rate is pretty good, huh?

It's exceptional and one of the worst parts. about this show is that it does sometimes turn into, yeah, this awesome thing that someone just did, they can't do that again. But it's usually right. By the way, it was 6.8% in 2021. It was 7.7% Stafford's touchdown rate last year. Trey McBride and all those targets. Can he repeat it? Well, he has led, he's been first or second at the position in target per out run rate three straight years. JSN, where's the regression there? Brees Hall. Breast Hall, three straight seasons of 16 to 17 games,

never scored more than five rushing touchdowns. Can we finally do better than that? You just heard from Heath. Good morning, Jamie. Good morning. Isn't it nice that we don't have to talk about AJ Brown on this podcast? I mean, you're assuming everybody listened to yesterday's show?

Yeah, everyone did. And if you didn't, go do it now. We did a podcast, yeah. Jamie, what do you think about Miles Garrett going to the Rams? he's, so he's 30 years old, and A.J. Brown is 29. And Miles Garrett fetched, the Brown's got Jared versus, a very good young pass rusher, a 2027 first, a 2028 second, and a 2029 third, whereas the Patriots only gave up a fifth round pick this year and a first round pick in 28. So quite a haul for the Browns. What do you think about that trade? I think it's great for both sides. You know, you have,

The Browns are obviously building for 2027 and beyond, and Jared Verse is going to be, I think, a big part of that. He was a big part of what the Rams accomplished last year. I think in the case of the Rams, you know, they are all in. And it makes a ton of sense for them to not only, look, they own, they not only got Miles Garrett. I think we forget, they also got Trent McDuffie this offseason too. So it's a pretty good defense that just got a lot better.

and I think the storyline for us is at least what's coming out of Los Angeles is now they may delay the extensions for some guys, the biggest one being Pugua, who they may have delayed anyway because of what happened this off-season, but do we have maybe a contract

situation to worry about now if Nakuwa is going to you know, hey, I did everything I was supposed to do, rehab, all this stuff and show it up for OTAs, pay me. So it's just something to keep an eye on for training camp. Okay, it is another, yeah, something to keep an eye on Yeah, go ahead. From projections guy, I think the biggest question is,

does Miles Garrett going from Cleveland increase the likelihood of a higher pass rate for Cleveland or increase the likelihood of a higher rush rate for the Rams? Like, he's a pretty elite defensive player, maybe the most elite defensive player. If the Rams' defense is just that much better, do we get more second half rush attempts for the Rams? That's a good point. We've also rarely seen Miles Garrett playing with the league.

He's been off the field a lot. Now he's going to be on the field a lot. Yeah, because those Browns teams with Garrett, not so much last year, but I mean, they would run the most plays in the NFL or up there. They throw the ball a lot. Just a quick schedule for the Rams. San Francisco Giants both at home. Oh, no, sorry.

San Francisco is in, where is that? Australia. Australia, right. San Francisco, it's a home game in Australia. you. Giants at home, Denver and Philadelphia on the road, then Buffalo in week five.

That's a fun schedule, man. So it should be some really competitive games there. And almost all of their games are primetime this year. They have so many primetime games. All right. And the Super Bowl, by the way, is in Los Angeles and SoFi Stadium. Bo Nix not expected. Who's beating them if they're healthy?

Who's beating them? Yeah. I mean, they've got to have the best team. on paper in the NFC. Yeah, NFL. NFL. Do they have the shortest odds now? Are they the favorites?

I don't know because Seattle's in their division is the only thing that might hurt the odds a little bit. But I know their odds. I didn't see. I haven't seen this morning where they're at. Okay. We'll look it up. Bo Nix, not expected to participate in OTAs. He broke his ankle in the playoffs, the AFC championship game.

So he's still coming along there. Daniel Jones, though, is cleared for seven-on-seven. I believe he broke it in the round before. That's right. That's right. That's right. And the Giants, Heath, what do you think about the Giants? Just getting all those old receivers. They signed three guys yesterday. They signed Odell Beckham, Brackston Barrios,

so I assume we'll be a special team's player with Gunnar O'Shealski out for the year, and Juju Smith-Schuster. I think Juju's very fun, and it's good that he gets to stay in the league. He's an incredible job of catching, like, 70% of his targets. Kansas City. Hopefully, he can keep that up and be a chain mover when the Giants need it. They also have Darnell Mooney and they brought in Calvin Austin and they drafted Malachi Fields and they brought back Isaiah Hodgins and they have Derek's... Half of these guys are not going to be on the team week. Yeah, it's perhaps the three that they signed yesterday won't be

on the team. Right. Who are the six receivers, Adam? Who do you want it to be? Or who are the five with neighbors? Yeah, Neighbors, Mooney. Well, neighbors are going to be on Pupp's the first four weeks. So you can have another one. Okay. Mooney, Slayton, I like Hodgins. I would say Austin. Well, Berrios, you know what he's doing. Beckham and Barrios, because he'll be this special. Fields is 100% going to be on the roster.

I'm sorry. Get rid of my... He might be the number one guy we won. I would say Fields over Beckham. Beckham's with 34 or something. He's super old. He's done nothing in recent years. Fields might be over Hodgens.

Yeah, 100. Definitely. Fields is way at the top of the list. I don't know why I forgot about him. But, yeah, but Beckham, I think Beckham could be like Hopkins was on the Ravens last year. You have a few big catches here and there, but not going to do much. Heath, what's coming up on FFT Dynasty? And then we'll talk about today's YouTube poll. Yeah, in like just over an hour. We've got a one-man mailbag and then special alert, because you don't ever talk about it unless it's your show that does this. but FFP Dynasty will be making their CBS Sports Network debut on Friday and doing a reveal of the new updated top 12 at each position for June

and Dan's coming on. So I thought it was fitting because of all the trouble I've given Dan recently. Let's give Dan this opportunity to just kind of tear my rankings apart. I love that. It's just you and Dan? Yeah. Oh, wow. Man, nobody respects my dynasty chops at all.

I didn't get invited. Well, okay, in fairness. And you do get invited on the show sometimes. Dave was giving me a hard time. I generally try to spread the wealth around, but you have talked repeatedly about how much you hate your dynasty leagues and you've just been tanking for the entirety of the time that I've been in dynasty leagues with you. Okay, neither of those things are true. I don't really like being the commissioner of the dynasty league, but I like the leagues. And I'm only tanking in one league. league. You wouldn't know that just by looking at it. You're taking in both. What are you talking about? You're definitely taking in both. If you try to win and trade away your 2027 first in either of those leagues, you were insane. No, I wouldn't do that, but I might set a lineup and try to win. That's all. You know, set a good lineup. Okay, so the YouTube poll today, Heath was inspired. What inspired you this morning, Heath?

I was mowing at about 7.45 this morning. And actually, it may have hit me. when I was using what I call the weed eater. I think they call it an edger in Florida. But maybe it's the same thing. But no, I just thought, I wonder if Adam Azers ever done this. Moad the lawn. Yeah. Yeah.

So the YouTube poll is, let's, how many times has Adam Azer mowed his lawn over under 0.5? Right now, under has two thirds of the vote. I voted. And I will tell you that the answer is either, I've never done. on it or I tried it once and decided to never do it again. So that's what you all have to decide. But you're not sure. Oh, okay. Right. You didn't do it multiple times. I've never done it. I definitely have not done it multiple times. So it's either one or zero. And you never had to do it as a kid. No, no, I never do it as kid. Jamie, have you ever mowed your lawn?

My own, no. But you've mowed someone else's lawn. So I was visiting a friend in Massachusetts and he was mowing his lawn and big lawn. And he's like, you've never mowed your lawn before. He's like, do you want to Do you want to do mine while I'm doing it? And I said, sure. So I dumped on the big thing, a big mower. And I did it for a little bit. And I was like, yeah, this is, I'm good. All right.

So we'll see. We'll check it on. Come on, man. You can't do it that early. Oh, in my neighborhood, it's fine. Oh, yeah. That is, oh, that is mean. Yeah, it's too loud.

And I have an electric mower. So if I'm not making any noise. Okay. All right. Let's get to the show here. Regression candidates. We start out with a team, a team,

look at, I don't know, looking at teams and not players. We will get to some players, but in terms of plays run, Heath wants, by the way, Heath came up with the, basically the entire show today, the poll, the topic. Raiders, dolphins, Vikings, all below 955 plays last year. Raiders, dolphins, Vikings ran very few plays. The Cowboys, on the other hand, ran 1,120 plays, most in the NFL. So when you look at the Raiders, dolphins, and Vikings, all being below 955 plays,

and all having different quarterbacks this year, you know, how do you project their play volume? Well, and two of them having different offensive coordinators or play callers this year. I just think for it's worth noticing because that league median last year was about 1,053. So these teams all basically ran 100 fewer plays than every team in the NFL. and offensive plays turn into fantasy points. So it's not a huge difference. And a couple of these teams may be towards the bottom again, but they won't be this far below average.

And the Cowboys probably won't be first at 1120. They're probably going to have a few. And there may be a problem if Lamb and Pickens are both healthy all year because they're not going to have quite as many pass attempts probably. I looked at the last seven years and see the correlation between teams that were top 10 in plays and where they ranked in points per game. And I guess to sum it all up, you don't see a lot of bad offenses there.

Not all of them are great offenses, but the worst offense last year that was top 10 in plays was the Chargers offense, which finished 18th in scoring. Now, the year before that, the number one team in plays run in 2024 was Cleveland. This is unbelievable. They had the most plays and the fewest points.

But that's pretty rare. Usually you have at least average or better offenses that are high in play volume. And I would think the Cowboys will be up there again, Heath, but 1,120 plays is quite a lot. Yeah, there weren't quite as many outliers on the top end as there were on the bottom end. Okay. That's like, they could be four or five plays a game difference,

which does matter. Are there any play callers that you look at and go that they can run a lot of plays? Well, one of them's gone. Cliff Kingsbury was always that. I think Ben Johnson, for sure. in Chicago. They were second last year. They were always towards the top of the league. And then like Pittsburgh was 28. That's not really a play caller thing. In fact, we've got kind of a competition there because Aaron Rogers generally uses the entire play clock and his teams have

a low number of plays. And Mike McCarthy's teams generally have a high number. Well, you could check what they were like together. The end of the Packers tenure was really when Rogers started doing this the most. Yeah. I would say, I would say, Kellyn Moore, right, is a guy who runs a lot of plays. Yes. Yeah. Saints were 10th last year. I think he was with the Eagles the previous two years, and they were a third and seventh in play volume.

So that's another point in the Saints direction. Well, the Ravens are going to be interesting because you have a guy that's coming from Ben Johnson's coaching staff and Sean Payton's coaching tree. And so that's a team that we're not used to seeing run a lot of plays or at least historically be fast, and they probably will be faster under Doyle. For sure.

Yeah, I mean, he's mentioned the Raiders, Dolphins, and Vikings. The Ravens were next with fourth few of his plays in the NFL last year. And I wonder if the Vikings get a little bit more up-tempo just because you have a veteran quarterback versus a guy that was clearly learning on the fly. One of the things that – well, yeah, also, I mean, just staying on the field is going to help you run plays, right? And just have a better offense and I'll go three and out. I wonder who led the league in three-and-out percentage last year. Let's find out. It was the Raiders.

Vikings were 24th. Anyway, that is in the worst 3.9 percentage. Just a somewhat off-topic question. We talk about tendencies, Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rogers. Rogers slow. McCarthy likes to push the pace a little bit. I don't think Mike McCarthy's offenses with Dallas ever ranked higher than 18th in running back target rate.

And if you draft Jalen Warren, You really are really hoping for a lot of targets. And Aaron Rogers throws to his running backs more than basically any quarterback in the NFL. What do you guys think is going to happen there? You think they're going to be a high running back target volume team, the Steelers? Well, I mean, you look at the Cowboys teams that he had, and he had pretty good receiving cores there. So I was just pulling this up in 2018.

they were ninth in offensive plays run, but I thought I had their running back target rate, and I don't. I do. They're running back target rate 19th, 19th, 26th, 18th, 28th, in five seasons with Dallas. Doesn't mean that... No, I was looking at the last time McCarthy and Rogers were together.

Oh, okay, okay. Sorry. All right, well, that's a little bit of an aside there. We'll get back on topic. After we take this break, we'll talk about touchdown regression for Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence is rushing touchdowns, Drake May's yards per attempt. We'll be right back on fantasy football today.

Tyler Reddick here from 2311 racing. Victory Lane? Yeah, it's even better with Chumba by my side. Race to Chumpacasino.com. Let's Chumba. No purchase necessary. VichyW Group. Voidware prohibited by law.

CTNCs, 21 Plus. Sponsored by Chumba Casino. So let's get into these quarterbacks here. And Matthew Stafford, one of the league MVP, one of the best values in fantasy. I see last year, 46 touchdowns. He's had two seasons like this with the Rams, won the Super Bowl and one of them. And last year had a great season, but fell short.

All right. So what are you looking at in terms of touchdown regression for Stafford, Heath? Well, I think the place you can start is you brought it up. He had a 6.8% touchdown rate in 2021. The next three years were 3.3, 4.6, and 3.9. Now, Devante Adams helps. So maybe it stays a little higher than that. John Daigle on Twitter put out a very good chart.

It shows 15 quarterbacks that have had a 7% touchdown rate or higher since 2000. No, in the last decade. So 15 QBs, they averaged 4.4 fewer fantasy points the following year. Wow. They averaged a dip of a 2.2% touchdown rate and a dip of 4.4 points in fantasy points. And sorry, Heath, is that 4 or 6 point for passing? touchdown league. Oh, that's a good question. It does not, the answer does not say. So I would guess based on what majority of the Twitter fantasy football world plays, it was four, but it could

have been six. But I was going to say, like, he threw 597 passes. So 5.5% rate, that'd be a 2% dip, would be 33 touchdown passes next year. If Stafford lost 4,000, 4%. point four points per game from what he did last season, he'd probably be a streamer in in four point per passing touchdown leagues. He'd still be a starter in six point for passing touchdown leagues. I think it's built into his early average job position though. I mean, you're seeing it where he's getting selected. I think if anybody was expecting him to replicate this or come close to it, we'd be ranking him and drafting him as a top five quarterback. Yeah. But I don't even know where do you think he was drafted last year?

No, he was post 15. Yeah, right. So that's the thing. It's like, I understand that Matthew Stafford is a late round quarterback, you know, borderline top 12 quarterback and ADP and whatever.

The question is, should I even bother with him or should I take a shot on Trevor Lawrence, who we're about to talk about, Malik Willis. About Malik Willis. I think that's a good pairing, though. Yeah.

If I was going to throw a dart like that, it'd probably do, Kyler. Fair, right. Here's where he's finished as per game in five seasons with the Rams. I'll go four point per-point-per-passing touchdown leagues first. On a per-game basis, Matthew Stafford has been number 11, number 30, number 17, number 27, and number one.

In six point, number eight, number 30, number 17, number 26, and number one. It's only had two good seasons in five years. It's not a lot of injuries to cup and puka and all that. Last year, everything fell into place. He's played through back injuries. Mm-hmm, including last year. Okay, Trevor Lawrence is rushing touchdowns, Heath.

What do you have to say about that? What did he have nine last year? Yeah, 29 passing and nine rushing. And I think he had, if you look at it, he had, a lot more rush attempts, but two years ago, he only played 10 games the year before, but two years ago, he had 70 rush attempts and scored four touchdowns. Last year, he had 82 rush attempts and scored nine.

He may be a higher touchdown rush rate guy with Liam Cohen. I think Baker may have had a good year in terms of rushing touchdowns when Cohen was his coach, but he's going to lose at least a point per game from rushing touchdowns. So Baker did run well with Liam. Cohen. It's a small sample size, obviously, just two years of what he did with his quarterbacks. But in the one year with Cohen calling plays, Baker set a career high in rushing yards and rush attempts. He had three rushing touchdowns. So it wasn't like the same level of

finding the end zone. But I think most people would assume that Trevor Lawrence, better athlete. He ran more in college than Baker did. So not a surprise that he's a little bit better with his legs. But yes, nine rushing touchdowns is hard to anticipate or replicate. I think you just know that that's kind of a staple. I think of what this offense will lean on. And the positive would be is when he turns around behind him, it's not Travis ETN anymore. It's Basie Tuton and Chris Rodriguez. So, you know, he may have more design runs. They may give him some more opportunities. They may be more design runs in the red zone. And, you know, for all of the hype that we've heard about Parker Washington, there's been a lot

of positive buzz about. I don't think Chris Rodriguez has practiced so far in OTAs. Right. Something to keep an eye on is that, I don't know if it's injury, he's just not there. I didn't really give a definitive answer. But the fact that Tutin may be, you know, taking the lead in the running back race doesn't mean that Chris Rodriguez is not going to have a role when his training camp comes around. But just in terms of Trevor Lawrence,

like they may need him to do that. They may need him to be a little bit more of a presence with his, you know, rushing. And I think that's a boost to his fantasy value. But again, if you're expecting nine rushing touchdowns, you know, I think you probably cut that in half at best. Yeah, he's been three, four, and five, I think, the previous three seasons, not necessarily in that order, but maybe you

ballpark it at four rushing touchdowns for Lawrence. He had four one-yard rushing touchdowns last year, and the rest were from four, six, seven, ten, fifteen yards away seven, yeah, I don't know. All right, so that's what, but I will say in his last ten games, or last seven games, he was the number one quarterback in fantasy. He averaged 31 fantasy points per game. and he was on pace for 44 passing touchdowns. So he really, he took off in the last seven games of his season.

And even if the rushing had gone away, because he was killing it as a rush or two on pace for 432 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. But even just the passing numbers, 4,5007 yards, 44 touchdowns, 10 picks, number one quarterback per game in the last seven games of the season. You know, the schedule was pretty damn easy. But he also, remember we went to damn.

Denver, and he scored 37.2 fantasy points in Denver. He lit up Buffalo. Well, he had some picks, but 25.4 fantasy points against Buffalo in the playoffs. They were fourth best against quarterbacks. I don't know, Jamie, what do you make of it? He's had great stretches to end seasons before. Was this different? It feels different because I think the coach is different, and I think the weapons are certainly different.

You know, when you look at it, there's a comment. I missed who who said it. The Jags did next nothing this off season. or did next nothing to improve. I don't know if that's fair, you know, because they did make a significant move in the middle of the year last year, the trade done line to get Jacoby Myers and then extend him. And then the biggest thing really is getting Brian Thomas healthy,

and he was interviewed yesterday the day before and said something like, what's the difference? He goes, I don't have any pain when I'm running. You know, so him healthy is a huge difference maker. Again, positive reviews so far this, this off season, take that for what it's worth in shorts and T-shirts and, you know, playing against air. But Parker Washington, getting better and more involved, healthy Brian Thomas, getting Travis Hunter

on the field. I know that makes us a little bit of a, a little bit concerning because of what it can mean for the rest of the receiving core, but that's clearly a weapon for Trevor Lawrence. And so with the run game, maybe a little bit suspect, it could be fine. You know, again, Tutan and Rodriguez could be a great duo and still perform at a very high level. I just think looking at Trevor Lawrence, like you asked us Lawrence versus Stafford, again, looking at their body of work and what they did last year, the easy answer should be Stafford. But I think if you're projecting it out, Lawrence is in a better spot. And to me, has a higher ceiling. I think Heath probably agrees. So, you know, the upside for Trevor Lawrence is fantastic. The value for Trevor Lawrence is fantastic. And again, when you start to get past, I think those top five or six quarterbacks, there's a huge list of guys that you can say could be seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve, whatever. You can pair Lawrence with somebody. You can pair Lawrence with somebody. and still feel good about your quarterback duo. And then if that second quarterback doesn't produce,

you just ride with Lawrence if he's playing well. So yes, there should be a little bit of a concern because he's done this before. But I think everything is just sort of moving in the right direction for Trevor Lawrence heading into 2026. Heath, let's talk about Drake May yards per attempt. He was just amazing last year. And 8.9 yards per attempt

with a 72% completion rate and if not the highest, maybe the second highest A-DOT in the NFL. So, yeah, it was a pretty incredible year for Drake May. So there will be some regression in yards per attempt. Yeah, yards per attempt and most likely touchdown rate. He had a 6.3% touchdown rate. Few quarterbacks do that year over year.

Now, maybe he's one of the guys that does, but even Josh Allen's only been over six twice and regressed from that. But I think Josh Allen's a good barometer to use because his career high in yards per attempt was last year at 8.0. So we saw Mahomes have an 8.8 and I think fell a half of a yard the next year. Lamar had an 8.8 and then fell a half a yard the next year. There's a good chance, I think. I think I haven't projected at 8.0 yards per attempt, which,

listen, if he throws 500 pass attempts, that's about 500 fewer passing yards. Now, we think, generally speaking, if the yards per attempt go down, the pass attempts will go up a little bit. I just, I wouldn't, we had the May versus Lamar thing yesterday. And I wouldn't want people to think, well, Drake May just got A.J. Brown. He's going to be even better. I think he will be better. And I don't think it's, I think it's because of A.J. Brown, but I think they lost three games last year. Well, four if you want to count the Super Bowl. And there are three losses. He threw, or four losses, 46, 37, 23, and 43 passes. Their schedule is much harder this year.

Well, some of that is that they're playing better defenses, so they're probably going to score fewer points. Maybe, but I just think they're going to throw more, and they just traded for AJ Brown. I 100% agree that the yards per attempt will go down. I'm not disputing your regression. I just think the attempts are going to go off enough. And I think he threw 31 touchdowns, he feels like a guy that could throw 35 to 40 touchdowns to me.

So it's ambitious. spoken Lamar Jackson, by the way. Jackson's done it twice. I would take Jackson over May. But I think, I don't, like, he wasn't even that great for fantasy last year. It was just passing in general wasn't great. What he's, what he averaged? 24 points.

24 points on the nose. That's a really good season, but that's one of, that's one of Lamar Jackson's kind of bad seasons. You know? So, I don't know, Jamie, I'll give you 24 fantasy points and 6 points for passing touchdown these. Over under for Drake May. Over. Heath?

I mean, I've basically got it as a push. I think I have him at 23.7 of my projections. Okay. All right. I guess that's just what I meant, and I feel like he'll be better. I just look at that number 24 points per game. I just feel like he can do better than that because he's so damn good and he just got brown. But I wasn't disputing your regression argument at all.

No, I think you nailed it, at least for me, you know, that the regression will be there. But the fantasy production will be a little bit better because the volume will be better. And I think I just have the volume and the regression basically can't see link each other out. Fair. All right. Christian McCaffrey and Bree's Hall. We'll talk about these running backs here. McCaffrey had 129 targets, 102 catches last year.

He had a 25.2% target per out run rate, which was high for his San Francisco days, not for his Carolina days, but high for San Francisco. So you think the targets will regress, 129 targets for McCaffrey? Yeah, he had 83 and 16 games in 2020. He has one season in his career with more than 129 targets. And teams just don't throw the ball two running backs that much. They had a weak receiving core last year, and at times, all of them were hurt. And he was their number one wide receiver.

They went out and got Mike Evans. They went out and got Christian Kirk. They went out and got stribling. And hopefully he's still amongst the most targeted running backs. But I think it matters more than people realize because rushing-wise, it was pretty. much just volume. They were not effective for a large portion of the season running the football, and he had a success rate below 50%. So if he's at 90 targets, then that could be a, even if he stays healthy, that could be a really big ding in his production.

I don't know if you do this quickly, Adam, but what were his targets with Mack Jones versus Brock Party? Yeah, I can do that. I don't think it was a big difference, but I will take a look. I mean, look, anything you're betting on or against McCaffrey, games played is a big thing too here. You know, last time we saw him coming off this workload, and this is worse. He was over 400 total touches in the playoffs, 2023, played four games, 2024. He has 450 total touches in 2025.

Like, that's incredibly scary. You want a scary number? Oh, wait, I'm sorry. I have to do it just in 2025. 2025, he had a 22% target share with Brock Purdy. And I think it was a little higher with Mac Jones. 22% with Purdy, 25% with Mac Jones. Rounding up and down.

Yeah, I think it'll be better with Purdy from that standpoint in terms of overworking him in the passing. game because Purdy will not necessarily panic and dump the ball off to McAfee every chance he gets. Mac Jones probably will. Hopefully we don't see a lot of Mac Jones. But I think, again, you look at age, touches, receiving court being improved. Like, yeah, this is a great call.

Okay. Do you think that 3.9 yards per carry, do you think he regresses in the sense that he's just going to be a better rusher this year? I have a hard time betting on that with a guy his age. I think he'll be better, but not dramatically better. I think also, look, the additions that Heath laid out for you are going to threaten the defense more than what they had a year ago. They had no Brandon Ayuk. They had no Ricky Pierce offer for stretches.

Kittle was banged up at the start of the season. Like, this is all they had. And so it was, we're going to force them to throw. And then it was Mack Jones. So this was Kyle Shanahan at his best, you know, making this offense still work and making McAfrey still be. as he lead as he was. But I think, you know, you mentioned the story yesterday

in terms of he's going to rest in practice. They're going to rest him more this year. They'll give him more opportunities to, you know, take some time off during games. You don't continue to, and I know they do this every year, but now he's 30. Like, you can't keep doing this to this guy

and expect him to make it through the entire season. All right. Next step, we have Breece Hall. He scored five touchdowns on 279 touches. And he, again, I said it at the start of the show, never scored more than five rushing touchdowns in a season. And he's played basically three

full seasons in a row. The Jets have been 30th or worse in goal line carries, which I consider the one to three yard line. From that range, they've been 30th or worse in goal line carries three straight seasons. So, Heath, it seems like

you think he's going to regress, but it seems like this is where Breesall lives, five rushing touchdowns. Five rushing touchdowns has, but there's a little bit of context there. Like his rookie year, he scored five total touchdowns on 99 targets or 99 touches. 99 targets would be great. On 99 total touches.

That was what, six games? Right. Seven games and he still had five touchdowns. His second year, he had nine total touchdowns on like 29 touches. The year after that, he had eight. Last year, he had five and had a career high by 20 in terms of rush attempts. I think some of this comes just because the offense is a little bit more functional. but also even in repeatedly bad offensive environments,

he's always scored at a much better rate than this, even though the total number of rushing touchdowns hasn't been up. He's a tough one for me, guys. He should be pretty much a workhorse, but he's on the Jets, hasn't really... You guys know why. I don't have to explain the case. You know why he's a tough one.

He's the guy I could see finishing as a top five running back and feeling like an idiot for not drafting any of them. Agreed. What do you think is ADP is right now? Probably somewhere around RB 15 or a little later. I think he's probably close to 17, 18. Yeah, I've got him at 15 of my projections. And it's like, that's, that's, he finishes RB21 last year with only 30, with only 36 catches in 16 games.

They're going to throw more because they don't have mobile quarterbacks. Right. So I feel like how could he be worse than last year when he was RB21? Yeah, I agree. I think Frank Reich is a plus compared to what they had last year. So that's a step in the right direction. I mean, look, they spend a lot of capital on offense. You know, and no matter what you think of Gino Smith, he's better than what they had a year ago.

And so, you know, you bring in slightly upgraded quarterback, much more upgraded receiving core, and pay Breeze Hall. That's a big part of this, too, is they pay. him. They could have easily played this out and said, okay, we're just going to go to 2027, and we'll get our quarterback then and see what we feel about the running back situation. So I think the fact that they committed to him is pretty remarkable. Then you look at the guys that he's being drafted around. And so, like, you can clearly make arguments for and against him versus Giovante Williams,

him versus Quinchon Judkins, him versus Cam Scadaboo, him versus probably Trevionne Henderson is in this range. you know, him versus... Yeah, but you know what, Jamie, I'm going blow your mind because on fantasy pros, he's going 29th, and he's going, he's RB 14 at 29th overall. In our leagues, he's going 22nd, not that many drafts.

In draft sharks, he is going 35th, but he's going, you know, consider, not considerably, but he's going ahead of ETIN and Javante. He's more in that, those wide receivers that we talked about yesterday, you know, the McMillans and the T. Higgins of the world. He's going just barely behind Derek Henry. I'm kind of surprised.

Like, Breeze Hall is a round three pick. And I feel like you guys like him in round four, right, Jamie? Late round three, early round four. You know, so 35 is fine. You know, that's about the place I would start to look. 22, no way. You know, there's no chance I would be taking Breece Hall then. And even what he said, like, I'd rather feel like an idiot and miss out that he's a top five running back

than draft him at the end of round two. because you have to build in the flaws here. Again, it is still Gino Smith. It is still a receiving core that's going to be a work in progress. It is still an offensive line that's a work in progress. Frank Reich was out of the league for a reason. So while all these, I think, are upgrades, there's still a lot of question marks. So if you want to say that he's RB 15 in round three, okay, I could buy into that.

Late round three. If you want to say that he's RB13, late round two, you know, that's putting him in Jeremiah I love and and Derek Henry range. Like he could be better than him. I wouldn't discount it, but I still think that there's reason to be a little bit pessimistic. And to bring up the touchdowns, you know,

I'll go back to a guy who was very high on last year, Braylon Allen. You know, that's a physical running back that you know the coach wanted to use, was talking him up quite a bit. Who knows what it was for if it was, you know, contract or motivation or whatever.

They were all in on Raylan Allen. It sold me on. Braille and Allen at his cost. And now you have Braylon Allen back after missing most of the season last year. Does he take away those touchdown opportunities, which could be frustrating? Which reminds me, I'm a dumb ass for two reasons. One, someone emailed, yeah, and I don't mow the lawn. I don't know what the poll was, but I've never done that.

So it was under 0.5. Anyway, I was wrong when I said last month that Braylin Allen heard himself on this goal line carry. Someone pointed out to me, emailed me and said he heard it on special teams shortly after, I guess, that goal line carry. But also, I was looking at non-PPR on our website, and Bruce Hall was 22nd there. In full PPR, he's 30th in between Kiron Williams and Jeremiah, I love. So no one's taking him in PPR leagues with a second round pick. All right, we'll talk about Devante Adams, J.S.N. Brian Thomas Jr., Trey McBride, Dallas, Goddard, and Tucker Craft.

And we come back on fantasy football today. Tyler Redick here from 2311 racing. lane? Yeah, it's even better with Chumba by my side. Race to Chumpacasino.com. Let's Chamba. No purchase necessary. VTW Group. Void were prohibited by law. CTNCs, 21 Plus, sponsored by Chumba Casino.

Well, if Matthew Stafford is going to regress in terms of touchdowns, then it's probably going to mean Devante Adams is going to regress as well. He had 14 touchdowns in 14 games. He had the most end zone targets that I've seen since True Media started tracking it so it's

you know bound to regress what do you think about Adams Heath I think everybody probably knows this one so maybe we can be shorter but the reason I put it on there is because there is significant

like disaster possibilities if the regression is a lot just because he averaged 53 receiving yards per game last year and he wasn't he had his worst yards per target since 2015 and his catch rate was way down.

And so if he scored seven touchdowns, he's not somebody that you really ever want to start. Jamie, do you share those concerns? Very much so. You know, the saving grace, and this is a team that would not shock me if they add another veteran receiver because of just where they're at.

But the depth chart at that position is miserable. You know, so I just did the outlooks for the Rams. You know, you're talking about Jordan Whittington and Conada Mumfield. and they drafted a receiver in the seventh round, I believe. This is just a very thin group behind the top two guys. And you have Puka, who we know was great last year, but has an injury history,

and Devante Adams is 33. And so you could see Stefan Diggs, you could see Tyree Kill, you could see maybe Brandon Ayuk if they decide to go that route if he's released. Like there's guys out there that make sense for the Rams at this point. And so I think, we'll see some additions, which will take away from Devante Adams if there's somebody of significance, mostly, again, if it's if it's Stefan Diggs.

Now, they are all in on this heavy, tight end package, as we saw last year. And drafting Max Clare in round two speaks to that after drafting Terrence Ferguson the year before, bringing back Tyler Higbee, keeping Colby Parkinson, like they are loaded at that position from guys that can be, you know, superstar caliber. I think if Terrence Ferguson was on a difference team, you know, asked Jacob Gibbs. We'd be talking about this, you know, potential breakout candidate. I think Max Clare, if he was drafted to this team, we'd be looking at him in a very different light if there weren't all these other guys. So there's opportunities to just lean heavy into that and to go back to the Miles Garrett conversation.

If they're playing with the lead and running the ball, probably see a lot of tight ends on the field. So I think what you're looking at with Devante Adams is can he score eight plus touchdowns? Can he score 10 plus touchdowns? That's a big ask. Because if those come down as I think we all feel it's going to happen, it could be really problem. for him because I don't see I don't see everything else increasing dramatically I think he will get better in terms of you know you brought this up previously like his um off target rate was not great last year and he struggled a little bit in terms of you know connecting with Matthew Stafford at times

so that will probably be better you know you're more of chemistry you're more of work off-season work et cetera but if the touchdowns significantly regress and we're talking six or seven it could be bad I yeah I think um he'll probably have a lower out. He had, Giovante Adams had the highest aid out of his career last year, which probably contributed to a low catch rate, although that's been a problem for a few years now. But I think we all see it. The touchdowns really boosted him. I do wonder, and I've seen Ryan Heath do some writing on this for fantasy points, the teams that run the heavy personnel with the three tight ends, if you're a wide receiver on the field in those formations, I think

it's a really good thing because you're just more likely to get targets, right? I mean, quarterback's probably going to throw a wide receivers more than they are at a tight end. So if there's only two receivers on the field, right? Would you agree, Heath? That's, uh, uh, it's definitely a boost for wide receivers as long as you are one of the guys on the field. Um, I don't, I think, I guess that's a positive for Adams.

I think it's a little bit concerning that last year, like he played in the offense that did that all year and had his work. year efficiency was. But they switched it, though. They switched it mid-season. Once they started running it, it was Adams on the field, and then they switched it and went to Puka. Yeah.

So it may not be Adam Hill in the field. Yeah. Well, Adams, Jamie, just to give that one stat, he, 78 wide receivers had 50 or more targets. He was 70th in catchable target rate. So kind of weird. Just a weird bad connection with Stafford, believe it or not. Who's next here on the wide receiver list? Sorry, it was JSN.

Yeah, he's good. What are you concerned about with J.S.? Not concerned. What's the regression for JSN? He's very good. But, I mean, just kind of, I think, as a rule, when a player comes out of nowhere and does what he did last year, you expect some regression. The fact that he lost, Clint Kubiak makes you a little bit concerned. The fact that, you know, Sam Donald's been a bit of a mixed bag in his career.

I just, I've got him projected for right on 18 fantasy points. That's very good. just when you're comparing him to the best players at his position and running back, I'm not sure he'll quite measure up. Jamie, concerned about him who, you know, JSN, who had just the best year of any wide receiver on a low pass volume team in at least 12 years on a bottom five passing volume team in 13 years, actually. Any concerns? So you both said something, I think that makes.

sense on both ends. The loss of Clint Kubiak could be problematic for a new offensive coordinator who's coming in with a background of running the ball. You say it was a low volume passing attack Adam. I think that's where the change happens and that's, I think, what benefits they are sent.

They just lost their two best running backs. And they bring in a guy, they bring in two guys. One has been a career backup in Emmanuel Wilson. The other was a backup in college. Will they have the same success running the ball? I don't think they well. I think we're going to see them throw the ball more. To what extent we'll find out.

But I think we see more volume. Then you look at what this receiving court looks like. Well, does Rashichie get better with a full off season in the system? Or is he just what he is? He's a, you know, sacrificial X and a guy that's going to play on special teams and do a lot of things in the return game. Cooper Cup is aging by the second. He's 33. Did not look very good last year until the end of the season. And, you know, maybe that's something that carries over to this year. Maybe Tori Horton can stay healthy and they get more production out of that spot. and we know that they have multiple tight ends that they can use as well. You know, we didn't see anything from Elijah Royal last year, who was a second round pick for them.

So we could see a little bit more production from that spot. I think J.S.N. is clearly their guy. And not just clearly their guy, clearly their offense at this point, because losing Walker and Charbonnet could just absolutely be disastrous for this entire team. So regression, sure, he could certainly take a little bit of a step back. Dramatic step back. You said 18 points per game, Heath. I think he's still pushing 20 and challenging to be the best receiver in fantasy.

All right. Heath, when are you taking, Jason? I think I have him at six. Six. Okay. I'll be curious to see. We're not far off. I mean, he's fifth for me, but that's, you know, I've seen drafts where he's gone first overall.

You know, it's not out of the realm of possibility that people love drafting receivers first over Gibbs and Robinson or Robinson and Gibbs, whatever order, and they like JSN better than Chase and Puka. And lastly, at wide receiver, Brian Thomas Jr., and Jamie, I'm glad you brought that. I should have brought that up in the news and notes. So Giant Thomas Jr. said that it doesn't hurt to run this year. He played hurt for much of the season. And I've mentioned that when everyone was healthy, Parker, Washington, Jacoby Myers, Brenton Strange, Brian Thomas Jr. at the end of the year, he had a super high A-DOT.

I think it was something like 17 yards. And they're talking about wanting to get the deep ball going this year. I really hope they don't make him a 17-yard ad doc guy. It's not going to be good for him. I mean, maybe in an Alec Pierce kind of way, but not in a Brian Thomas Jr. of 2024 kind of way. Heath, what are you looking at with Brian Thomas Jr. In terms of regression?

I think the biggest thing is that he just, maybe he was talking about the toe or the foot. And I think there was a shoulder at some point. I'm not sure the wrist was fully healthy. He was just completely beat up for most of the year. And maybe he didn't handle that quite as well as he could have. but we saw the catch rate fall from 65% to 53%. We saw the yards per target fall from 9.6 to 7.8. And he earned a lot fewer targets in the second half of the season.

I think after they just accepted that he wasn't healthy enough to be as good as he had been in the past. I just think he's too good to be as bad as he was last year. Is he your favorite Jaguars wide receiver? Currently, yes, but they are all, they are back to back to back. And I know Jamie says if you want to take the upside play, it's Brian Thomas Jr. Is he your highest rank, though, Jamie? It's hard to ignore everything that just came out of the OTAs, how good Parker Washington looks. So I moved Washington ahead of Brian Thomas by one spot.

They were the other way around. Now, again, Thomas had amazing reports as well. And so this is, to me, the most fascinating receiving corps for fantasy this year to keep an eye on and to find out, you know, what's going to look like because Jacobi Myers has been very productive. And then I really do think that we're going to have a Travis Hunter problem because I'll just go back to the narrative. They're getting pooped on for the trade.

And when you get pooped on, you try to prove that you made the right decision. Well, how do you do that? You play them on offense and you give them a lot of opportunities. And so if you're giving them opportunities, it's coming at the expense of one of these other three guys, one of which they paid in a mid-season trade, in Jacoby Myers, one of which they may be trying to highlight the trade in Brian Thomas,

who was amazing for them, but it was a different coaching staff two years ago. So there's a lot of things to dissect with the Jaguars. And Parker Washington was a sixth round pick, you know, took him a few years to, you know, impress his new coach or impress the franchise. And now it's like, how do you take that off the field? So it really is something to look at here. And I think you're going to take swings on three of these guys for sure, maybe four, and you may miss wildly if you take them too soon.

I just think Brian Thomas is too good to not have some level of bounce back potential. And if he does bounce back, similar to what he said about Breece Hall, like how did I not take a chance on him? How did I not try and draft this guy and just see what he could become or could become again because, I mean, you know, I was thinking about this when we had the Malik Neighbors conversation yesterday, like when you said, what would have looked like if he was healthy? And it may have been Brian Thomas. Like, you know, what if he was bad?

You know, Malik Neighbors, what if he had looked so good as a rookie and then taking this huge step back? Like, Brian Thomas was so bad last year. And Heath laid it out all the injuries, how much without a problem, new offense, how much is that a problem, other guys, et cetera. But like, man, it was, it was bad. for a big stretch of the season for Brian Thomas. And I hope he can get back to something close to that because it would be a lot of fun.

Yeah, it's not even worth talking about right now. And I don't know that it's worth talking about at all. But Malik Neighbors actually wasn't really that good last year except for against Dallas, which was the worst. I mean, go look at what Marvin Harrison Jr. did to Dallas. He destroyed them on Monday night football. Dallas was the-Rompson. The same game.

Yeah, yeah, right. Russell wasn't through 400 yards in that game. He had 12.1 fantasy points in week one against Washington. He had a terrible game, 3.3 points against the Chiefs. Then he had two catches for 20 yards before tearing his ACL and meniscus against the Chargers. But he scored 37.7 points against Dallas. This is neighbors. It was also with our now new colleague, Russell Wilson.

It was. Well, week four was Dart, right? Week four was Dart, but that was Dart's first start. Dart's first start. God, I don't have anything that rhymes with. that oh terrible for yeah yeah absolutely um tray mcbride first art leaked neighbors need took a fart and you they brought out the cart they brought out the cart they brought out the cart yeah while leading out pop tarts okay i want to get through these tight ends because i want to tell you guys

what i wrote in a text message before the show it's really important everyone needs to hear it Trey McBride, he thinks there's going to be some target regression for Trey McBride. He's at 169 target base, like 10 per game. 17 games, 169 targets. Since week eight of the 2023 season, that's 43 games. He's on pace for 159 targets. So led the position where I've been second of the position, three straight years in target per outrun rate.

Tell me about your regression concerns with McBride. Well, I... That's it, by the way. What's that? What did you text it to? A couple friends, not you guys. But it's a really important text. Right there.

You text target per route run rate to friends that aren't us? No, no, no. It has nothing to do with football. I just, it's off subject. I want everyone to stay tuned for the end of the show. I want to tell you what I texted. And no, I don't text that kind of stuff to my friends. Go ahead, Heath.

I think you gave the since week eight of his. his second year. I would probably, if I was going to compare, I would say week eight of his second year through his third year, he was on pace for 152 targets. So maybe that would be my target expectation if Drew Petsing was staying. Because we've talked about it a lot. Like they just, when Jacoby Brissette took over, they went insanely pass heavy. They've changed coaching staffs. They drafted Jeremiah Love. I don't think there will be as many total. They led the NFL in pass attempts last year. I don't think there would be as many pass attempts in Arizona. So he's probably losing a target per game. He's also, like, Trey McBride has been a touchdown regression candidate every

year of his career, I believe. Usually it was because he was only scoring two or three. Then he went and had an insane seven and a half percent touchdown rate season. That's probably coming down, I would guess, two or three. So I think you got two to four fantasy points per, or two to three fantasy points per game that you're losing just based on that. And then, as I've talked about too much, he was in one of the most tight-end friendly systems in football, and he's not going to be this year. All right. He scored 18.6 points per game last year, Trey McBride and PPR.

So if he's down to 16, 2.6 fewer per game, he's worth a pick where? Round three. Jamie, what do you think? 16 points from McBride. I think the bigger question, though, is what's tight end two, three, and four? He was four points better per game than tight end two. He was 100 points better in total points than tight end two. Like, that's dramatic.

So if he's that much better than the field. So if he's at 16 and the next guy is at 13 or 12, like he's worth a round two pick easily. I think late round two is fair. I actually like Bowers better than McBride. I think Bowers takes a step forward because of better quarterback, play, better coaching. And McBride does regress. I share Heath's thoughts here.

You know, I think we're looking at if you have a full season of Marvin Harrison and anything close to just a better Michael Wilson, plus just a better run game. Like, that's a big part of this also is, you know, they really looked at, you know, you talk about most past attempts. They were terrible running, but I think there were 32 in terms of rushing yards per game. So, or the Raiders were right there with them. But, you know, you're looking at just a better offense in general.

I think a better overall offense and a step back in terms of what the passing game, past attempts look like. So I just think he loses a little bit here and there. You want to hear a scary stat for Tray McBride? Did you text this to somebody? No. Let's go to 2024 where he, what did he have, three touchdowns that year? So he had, he led the team in 2024 with red zone and green zone targets. But in the end zone, it was all Marvin Harrison.

Not all, but it was largely Marvin Harrison Jr. Marvin Harrison Jr. had 18 end zone targets in 2024. McBride had nine. McBride only caught one of those nine, which is ridiculously low. He should probably count. How many of those are at the end of the season when they were forcing the ball in to get those things? Yeah, maybe. But he had nine and Harrison had 18.

This past year, it was basically flipped. It was 18 for McBride and 10 for Harrison. But when Marvin Harrison Jr. was on the field, he had more than my numbers are wrong here, but he had more than McBride. So McBride really, like Marvin Harrison Jr. might still be the end zone guy. And seven of McBride's 11 touchdowns last year came on end zone targets. And you gave that 16. Not a lot under, but I would take the under if you were setting 16. as an over-under for his fantasy points per game this year.

I did something, I'm doing something wrong. Oh, is it? No. So I've got end zone targets. Marvin Harrison Jr. with 13 and McBride with six when Harrison was on the field. What about for the full season? It was, okay, okay.

I said, I was just wrong about Marvin Harrison's end zone targets to begin with. Yeah. So that's insane. So 13 end zone targets for Marvin Harrison Jr. When he was on the field, only six for McBride. McBride had 11 when Harrison was not on the field. field. It's a big deal. You got to take it to account that we may not see Jacoby percent the majority of the season, too.

You know, they're probably going to force Carson back on the field at some point, and that could be good for Trey McBride? Could be awful. How many touchdowns do you think McBride scored when Marvin Harrison Jr. was on the field? He scored 11 for the year. Four. Bingo. They both scored four. All right. We've been very negative on Trey McBride. We still like him quite a bit, but there's

a lot to consider. Dallas Goddard scored 11 touchdowns as well and he had no more than five in any previous season so that's going to come down and I think seven by my count seven of his 11 touchdowns were designed for him in close to the end zone so yeah big big deal there for Goddard yeah and I think there's a you can make the case that he's going to have an increase in targets because AJ Brown's gone and maybe this is just a wash that he scores fewer touchdowns

but has more production, and so doesn't hurt him that bad. I would just say that kind of like Devante Adams, there is a risk here that other than scoring touchdowns, Goddard was really pretty mediocre last year. 39 receiving yards per game, just 7.2 yards per target. 9.9 yards per catch was a career low. The yak was non-existent, first time ever below 4 yards per catch after reception. And they just drafted Eli Stowers.

if it might not just be touchdown regression. It might be that the touchdowns masked the fact that Goddard wasn't as good and Stowers by mid-season is seeing more targets than him. Certainly could be the case. So we kept referencing the three games that A.J. Brown missed for DeMonte Smith. Brown actually missed four games over the last two years. Smith just happened to miss one with him. So in those four games that Brown missed,

Goddard averaged 16.2 ppr points per game in those four games. Now, it's a little skewed because three of those games were amazing. One was a little disappointing. And in two of those games, he had seven plus targets. In the other one, which was last year, was the four touchdown game that Jalen Hertz had against the Giants in week eight, and Goddard scored two touchdowns, but he only like three catches for 28 yards or something like that.

It was pretty mediocre, but he scored twice. So I think if you just look at what the upside is for Goddard, it's clearly there, but you have to expect that we're talking about a guy that sees his touchdowns come down. It's a new offense coordinator as well. So Sean Mannion may change some things. But I also think, you know, and this is something that's a Jalen Hertz positive and negative in this regard is like, is Jalen who we had that whole story reluctant to change? does that mean he's reluctant to not rely on the guys that he's used to, meaning Devante Smith and Dallas Goddard. So this could be a negative for Mikhail M. Kempin.

Could be a negative for Stowers. Could be a negative for all the veterans that they brought in. And it could be great for Goddard and obviously Devante Smith that, okay, I know what these guys are capable of doing. I know what I can get from them. When things don't go my way, as he did with Kevin Petullo, I'm going to call my own plays where I'm going to do what I want to do. And I'm going to lean on Goddard and lean on Devante Smith.

So I don't know where you come out on the seat. I still think Goddard, as we discussed with the AJ Brown trade yesterday, like he's a great late round option. But if you're looking at it and saying, oh, huge upgrade now because Brown is gone, guy scored 11 touchdowns last year, 16.2 ppr points per game when Brown wasn't there. Like this could be a top eight, top five tight end. I think you're making a mistake. Yeah, I think Heath would sign off on that. 100%.

Tucker Kraft is our last regression candidate. his efficiency and his touchdowns. He looks a lot like George Kittle on paper. Can you keep it up? Well, no. We used to call him like George Kittle light, and his efficiency has gotten to the point to where it's like insane George Kittle.

What if George Kittle was an alien that could not be stopped? He averaged 11.1 yards per target last year and scored six touchdowns on 44 targets. The reason that that really matters, I think if you just look at tight-in fantasy points per game, and then you start hearing that we think Tucker Kraft's going to be healthy, which Amy was talking about if he falls to 16, George Kittle last year was 14.7, Tucker Kraft was 14.6.

Brock Bowers was 14.5. It wouldn't be that hard to talk yourself into Tucker Kraft, kind of being in that same class. And maybe, like, the way this could change is if they just throw it to them seven times a game, which would be nice. But they haven't done that with anyone the whole time the floor has been there really. Just his career.

Okay, Tucker Kraft came in the league in 23. And he's second in yards per target behind George Kittle. He's got to be first in yak. 9.1 yards. Yeah, for sure. But it's every year. He does it every year.

But last year was even more extreme. Yeah, last year was, what was this, yak last year? 10.8. 10.8. It was 9.1 the year before that, 7.5 as a rookie. He's pretty incredible. I don't really find myself drafting him or Leporta

just because I don't think those guys are going to get 90 targets. I mean, I don't think they're going to get 100. I think it's much more likely Leporta does than Kraft. Because of the coach. And because Bocordo had 120 target season already. Yeah. There's not a discount for Kraft. I thought there might be coming off the ACL, but he's going like 70th.

That doesn't really feel like a discount to me. Does Jamie, does I feel like a discount to you? No, but I think if he had stayed healthy and obviously continued on the trajectory he was on, we're talking about a top three tight end here in most drafts. And then you take into account that they took away two wide receivers, and they're counting on a guy who did nothing last year to take a huge step forward in Matthew Golden. Plus Christian Watson, who's penciled in as their number one guy, has had a hard time staying healthy himself.

So, again, to play out your Malik neighbor scenario if he had been healthy, like if Tucker Kraft had been healthy, like you'd be hearing, is it McBride, Bowers, or Kraft? Like, I think that would be the conversation and loved one would probably be fourth. So there's a lot to like about the situation. A, he's got to be healthy. B, yes, he's got to continue to perform at this level. but even if he does regress,

I think that's kind of what people are looking at with him is that he still could be pretty special and probably going to be one of Jordan Love's top targets if not the top target in his offense. So it's a big ask, it's a big question, again, with the knee. I think as he said, you know, if we're getting more positive results on this, like his ADP may rise. Yeah.

But we'll see how it shakes out. Like, you know, at one point, I don't know if it was our ADP and a lot before Dave was doing this exercise with the drafts. But I know there was one site where he was tied in three. And like, no, I can't sign off on that. But I think once you get past, for me at least, the top four or five guys, I think he's in that next group with Pitts and Likely. And I think LaPorter belongs there, but, you know, debatable Fanon, you know,

with all the additions the Browns made, like he could be better than all these guys. It wouldn't be shocking. Yeah. Maybe I undersold his targets. If the Packers just start throwing more, then it would change everything. And I also probably oversold his ADP. It is 70th. Tucker Craft on Draft Sharks going 70th on Fantasy Pro's 86th or 87th.

CBS about 80th. So there you go. All right. A couple of chat things here. Has Adam ever used a power tool? A drill? Does a drill count? I've drilled.

Yeah, that is a power. I use a drill. Okay. It had a battery and it made a sound. Yeah, yeah. It's very fun to use a drill. And then I did mention that Devante Adams had the highest ADOT of his career.

And Eric was very surprised by this because half his catches... Eric was surprised because, you know, he had so many end zone targets. But it is true. And then I looked, I just did the math a little earlier. His ADOT was about 12.2 yards, I think, Devante Adams. It was 14.3 yards,

which is very high on anything other. than end zone targets. So they tried some downfield stuff with him and didn't really work that well. Okay, you want to hear the text I sent? I want this on the record. Okay? Yeah.

I am so certain that the Knicks are going to win the championship, that all I can think about is, man, I hope they close it out on their home court. End quote. They are going to win. Probably, like, Knicks fans hate you for reading that on air. It's one thing to send that to your friend.

To read it on air, it was a disastrously bad take. I thought it was Spurs in six. I'm going Spurs and Five now. Are you going to any games? I do not have $10,000, so I will not be going to the games. No, unfortunately. You know, if you'd mow your own line, you probably could. Oh, more Giants news.

Oh, do they sign? Who'd they sign this time? Tyree Kill? No. Not Andrew Miller, I don't. They released Jason Sanders. Oh. Thanks for watching, listen to everybody.

We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy for Walt today. Podcasts. Tyler Reddick here from 2311 racing. Victory Lane? Yeah, it's even better with Chumba by my side. Race to Chumpacasino.com. Let's Chumba. No purchase necessary.

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