Fantasy Football Today - Rookie Debates! Henderson vs Hampton, Burden Vs Golden + More (05/30 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings. I am joined once again by Jacob Gibbs. Gibbs, it's been too long since we've got to talk on this show. What have you been up to? What's going on with the newsletter? Thank you for coming back. Yeah, always great to be here. Thanks for having me, Heath. Newsletter has taken a bit of a backseat lately. I've been working on a lot of stuff. If you've been on Twitter at all, you see that I'm like really diving deep into the quarterback analytics and film. And that's been really fun. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go to my Twitter for sure, because you'll find literally any quarterback that you want to know about, I think you'll probably find. And then I've also got some exciting Beyond the Boxcore news that's coming up soon.

Starting point is 00:00:45 And so I've been putting some pieces together in the background there. But as for the newsletter, been working on running back rush scheme. So looking at the incoming rookie class and seeing like how does Ash and Genie fit with Chip Kelly in that system? How does, how might Josh McDaniels and Mike Rabel effects, Trevon Henderson, stuff like that. And then over the last couple of weeks, I've been putting, it ended up being a three-parter, three separate emails, because we've got a bunch of new coaches, just looking at all the new coaches

Starting point is 00:01:15 and how they might affect things. I actually had some really cool excerpts from that that I wanted to share, just to get, I mean, surely by now, you guys know, like, sign up for FFT newsletter Google FFT newsletter and find it if you don't know what we're talking about but like What did I want to bring up the okay Liam Cohen and Josh Grizzard, I feel like nobody's talked about Josh Grizzard and the more that I dug into this guy

Starting point is 00:01:41 I've watched like any press conference I can find so he's the third straight new offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay And it's hard to parse through this and like decide exactly what to attribute to each guy But like it sounded like he had a huge hand in like helping set everything up. They created like last year. They created a spot for him past game coordinator past game specialist Which didn't even exist during the Dave Canales era. And then they hired Liam Cohen to be offensive coordinator,

Starting point is 00:02:09 they hired Grizzard into this new spot, and they completely reinvented the screen game there. And a lot of that, basically all of that credit, I think, goes to Cohen. And so people are rightfully excited about Jacksonville, this upcoming season, but I was just diving into how much he might have affected things and how that might impact Tampa Bay going forward. There were honestly just a ton of new hires

Starting point is 00:02:30 to get into. Another one the dynasty managers might be interested in is in Dallas. You probably know this Heath because you're a seasoned vet. I was just blown away digging into Schottenheimer's history of running backs who like kind of came out of nowhere and got a chance. And a lot of them were late round picks or first or second year players. So we've got back to 2006, we've got Leon Washington with the Jets, just like fourth round pick, taking it over,

Starting point is 00:02:57 five foot eight, 192 pounds, taking over the lead back duties. Zach Stacey, everybody I think remembers those days fondly in St. Louis, taking over as a round five pick. And then the next year, Trey Mason, round three pick, kind of taking over at the end of the season. Chris Carson, the glorious Chris Carson days were under Brian Schottenheimer and Pete Carroll in Seattle. And then even like recently Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdell. And so like I'm pretty excited about what that might mean for Jade on blue. So yeah, it's been fun digging into all this on the newsletter. Go check that out out if you if you don't know we're talking about

Starting point is 00:03:25 that anything Jacob dives into you're going to find deep dives. I was funny I was on a podcast I think it was Wednesday night with a friend of the show the fantasy football mad scientist and he we were talking chiefs and Broncos and I think he cited that Jacob Gibbs put something on Twitter about Bo Nix and started explaining what it was and asked me if I'd seen it. And I said, you know, you could tell me that Jacob Gibbs said just about anything about just about any quarterback over the last two months on Twitter. And I would believe, yeah, that was probably him. Cause every time I open Twitter, it's a new thread from Gibbs.

Starting point is 00:04:01 And it's all good stuff. You should definitely go take a look at it. I, I'm just going to ask you one more question before we get to that. What we're talking about today. You've shown a lot of stuff with like catchable ball rate and accurate throws and videos to show what happened. Do you have any idea how sticky that stuff is year over year? Like I know my home's numbers were particularly bad last year, mediocre at best. And in the past, that's not been

Starting point is 00:04:32 the case. So like a year over year, do you think that stuff sticky? Or is it just better at telling a story of what happened last year? I'm not entirely sure. I'm going to dig into that more. I've almost completed this, like getting all the quarterbacks accounted for and looking at all the different ways to car compartmentalize like playing the position Breaking it down by accuracy at different ranges and everything and then I do want to look historically I'm pretty sure finish points data has their information dating back to 2021, but it might be 2022 So it won't be a big sample size That's unfortunately the problem a lot of the times that I run into with this new data that I play with

Starting point is 00:05:06 is like we only recently have it. So back testing it is kind of a fool's errand, but I'll do my best. And then the other thing that I'll bring up is I'm going to do a podcast with the Fantasy Points data team and the people who do the charting for them that then results in this data that you see

Starting point is 00:05:23 and get their opinion on like, there a lot that I want to talk about like a lot of the plays That are charted as pressure or no pressure are extremely debatable and this isn't their charting that I'm looking at when it comes to The film I believe that's BFF And so it's like how do you parse through all that and just like try to try to find some answers and try to illuminate Some things for people to get just a little bit more clarity and transparency with like what you're really looking at here. And at the end of day, a lot of it is just going to be gray area, you know, but I think that we can do our best to like, lay this out, show people what it is and then do our best to also dig deeper back into it into history and see if it's been

Starting point is 00:06:02 predictive or not and what that might mean for these players as we look forward. So that's what he's been working on. And something else he worked on in the newsletter about a month ago was his version of the rookie rankings. And so today on today's show, we're going to have some very friendly rookie debates. We want to talk about some guys that Jacob and I are kind of split on a lot of times. Listen, this won't be, I don't think anybody's going to plant too strong of a flag here. Cause a lot of times we're talking about a situation where Jacob might have

Starting point is 00:06:29 somebody second at running back and I have in third and we're swapped. So there's a lot of uncertainty, obviously with rookies going into, but we will debate Henderson versus Hampton, Harvey versus Judkins, Burden versus Golden and much, much more. We will start with three more questions I guess for Jacob Gibbs and we'll be a little quicker on these. I was writing about, I updated the positional rankings this week at quarterback running back wide receiver tight end in dynasty and I wrote about the trio of Devontae Smith and Jalen Waddle and Chris Olavi.

Starting point is 00:07:01 I think quite possibly all three of those guys rank as low in dynasty as they have since they were drafted for me. Guys that we really believed in the talent, but one thing or another has kept them from producing elite fantasy production except for Waddle one year back in 2022. So my question to you about those three guys, Devontae Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olavi, do they still have top 12 upside? I think that each of them does have it. It would be you're betting on an outlier. Just based on the way their careers have gone, the percentage chance of them turning into a top 12 player is pretty low. Most of the time, those types of players showed that earlier

Starting point is 00:07:43 in their career. And I think like you said, Waddle is the only one who's done it. The other guys have given us really encouraging signals. And then obviously, when you watch them, they're amazing. But it hasn't all come together. And you can come up with contextual, circumstantial stuff to explain why not and convince yourself that it will or could. But most likely, it won't. But for each of them, I think there's definitely a reason to be bullish.

Starting point is 00:08:04 Devante Smith, one of the most productive collegiate receivers we've ever seen in terms of route production and all of the underlying stuff that I like to look at, the per route data and all of that is just exceptional. And nothing has happened as a pro that would dissuade me from believing that that is who he is. It's just like he plays in such a run heavy offense and AJ Brown is also that guy and has been even more of an alpha when

Starting point is 00:08:28 it comes to drawing targets. And that's everywhere he's been AJ Brown. So like if circumstances change for him, I definitely think he could. Jalen Waddle. Man, even last year, I as I've been watching so much film, we're digging into this quarterback stuff like Waddle just pops off the screen like he looks so good And we've seen him do it So I absolutely am fine betting on him and that that could be coming sooner rather than later if I had to bet on one Of these for this year. It's probably him

Starting point is 00:08:54 If you know if Tyreek continues to regress and that's what it looked like happened last year with Tyreek and then Chris Alaba He is Exceptional as a player. He's very similar to Smith. He didn't show the same type of target dominance, but his efficiency has always been through the roof as a per route player. And so I get why people want to remain excited about him. He's probably the one that I would be the most dubious

Starting point is 00:09:20 of ever turning into top 12 at this point of this group. Well, and part of that's his situation. Part of that's like there's legitimate concerns about his health with the concussions. And I think also like when you talk about Waddle versus Smith and who's more likely to do it this year, I think it's really like, are you considering the injury upside for one or for both? Because Devante Smith's pretty much been that guy if Dallas got her or AJ

Starting point is 00:09:43 Brown are going and then when both of them are there, he is the most mid wide receiver three you've ever seen. And so it's like, it's pretty easy for me to just say, well, if one of those guys get hurt, then Devontae Smith's going to be an elite producer and if they don't, then he's probably not. Waddell, I don't understand at all. Um, because it wasn't just like Tyree Kill took a step back last year and Waddell had the worst year of his career.

Starting point is 00:10:11 And the offense changed. So I so I don't really have any idea. I rank them right now in Dynasty Smith Waddle of Lave. I agree with you on Lave being last. Question number two, who scores the most fantasy or scores more fantasy points in the next three years? Tyler Warren or T. or TJ Hawkinson? That is an interesting question. I will just go with Hawkinson. I'll just bet on O'Connell, but I don't even know what his contract details are. Do you? I don't. What I thought was interesting is I was writing about Hawkinson today and the fact that like in the 2023 season before he tore his ACL, he was tied with Travis Kelsey for tight end one 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game average 8.6 targets per game in O'Connell's

Starting point is 00:10:54 offense since he got there before the ACL. So yeah, I would go with Hawkinson as well. I think it's an interesting thought exercise because we see almost universally that Loveland and Warren are ranked ahead of Hawkinson who's not really, he's still in his prime. Um, and I would expect he's going to be a top 12 tight end, no matter where he plays, he might be top five if he's in Minnesota, but I do think it's interesting to think about if you were a contender and you have a pick and Warren's maybe their best available player on the clock, you might be able to trade that pick to somebody for Hawkinson plus and get a better player during your contending window. For sure. I just looked

Starting point is 00:11:30 and he's on under contract through 2027, but they do have an out after this year where they wouldn't take a ton of dead money. So and like how much further he's recovered from that ACL probably determines whether that's appealing. If he's TJ Hawkinson, they're probably not trying to get out of that contract because they seem to love him. Question number three, who is the best rookie or 2026 pick that you would trade for Derek Henry if you were a true contender? That's a good question. Would you trade Judkins for him? I think that's where I would start somewhere around there on the high end. So you're thinking that and for you in a tidy and premium league, that's probably somewhere around pick one 10, one 11, something like that.

Starting point is 00:12:10 Yeah. And then a 20, 26 first, if you're a true contender and you're adding Henry to that roster, that makes you more nervous cause you don't know what that pick is. Right. But it's also a year away and you could have Judkins and Henry on the team this year. And then none of that pick next year.

Starting point is 00:12:26 Like that's that one's more borderline. Yeah, I would be pretty wary of making that type of a move, but I could see it. I could see you justifying it. I have a tough time. I always wanted like have my cake and eat it to have a really tough time being like, all right, I'm going in and contending like, and I'm selling the farm because I'm going to build this mega team. But like often you do have to do that.

Starting point is 00:12:45 You look around your league and it's like, okay, this team is like positioned to crush this year, you know? And this, your team that you feel really good about is like relative to redraft teams, you know? And you want to keep those young pieces in place, but it's like, you really might need Henry. So I guess I could get it, but I would be uncomfortable with it. Let's take our first break and then we'll get into Amarian Hampton

Starting point is 00:13:03 versus Trevion Henderson. So this is one of the few debates, Amarian Hampton versus Trevion Henderson that I've set up that one, I want to add a qualifier for and two, I think I actually am trying to argue against the draft capital. A lot of the times I'll be arguing for the draft capital. You kind of have to go back and forth on that, but the qualifier is this is for full PPR leagues. And it may be that would change your answer, but I think they're really close in half PPR.

Starting point is 00:13:31 I see in full PPR, Hampton's still going above Henderson and I don't fully understand that. I'll start with Henderson because I feel like I am the road team since Hampton was a first round running back. I'll let you be the road team later. I liked Henderson more than I liked Hampton coming into the year, coming into the draft. That made me a little bit unique. I think Matt Waldman had Henderson higher as well. I really felt like, man, Henderson could crush PPR leagues because of what he can do in a pass catcher if he lands in the right spot. And I know people don't think of the New England Patriots as like this off awesome offense that you want to be a part of as a running back. The offensive line

Starting point is 00:14:08 wasn't even that great, but it's Josh McDaniels. And you got a young quarterback in Drake May, and there's basically no wide receiver one. I'm not entirely sure there's a wide receiver two on this roster, but I think there's an excellent opportunity to catch 60 passes as a rookie and thrive in exactly the type of role he was supposed to be in. And probably as the year goes on, take carries away from Ramondre Stevenson, who's just not that exciting to me. So for one year, I'll take Henderson for the career. I'll take Henderson. Tell me why I'm wrong. I think that Henderson was below him from a prospect evaluation standpoint,

Starting point is 00:14:44 especially for fantasy because I think Hampton is almost definitely when you get first round draft capital attached to him going to like play that every down roll. Whereas Henderson, it feels like a stretch that he can get there. I think that he can. We saw him do it early in his career at Ohio State, but already they're kind of talking about him as like a gadget player. Like I hate that.

Starting point is 00:15:03 I hate the word gadget being attached to him I think that was Adam McDaniel's mouth today and so I don't I don't love that I The other thing is we didn't see Henderson do the elite receiving stuff that people attribute to him at any point I think like from a statistical standpoint, we never saw that He gets put in the same tier as some of these other running backs like Jamiro Gibbs that but like he just doesn't belong There if you look at his collegiate stats, so Josh McDaniels could help him get there But there's another factor at play in that Drake may loves to scramble

Starting point is 00:15:36 Had like one of the highest scramble rates of any quarterback not named Jaden Daniels. I think he was next and So that there's just there's a lot of pieces with New England that makes it a very volatile projection. I'm very intrigued as I dug into the coaching stuff like McDaniels could be a great fit for him. I think from both a run scheme standpoint, and then also the propensity to get the ball to the running backs in the passing game. But I'm very curious how that how Drake may will affect that.

Starting point is 00:16:01 Another area I'm really curious about is is Drake may going to be used as a rush around the goal line a lot? Kim Noon was, I think, quarterback 14 in his age 31 season in fantasy and six points per passing touchdown leagues, and he threw eight touchdowns. And that was because he had, I think, the second most designed rusher of any quarterback in the NFL, like more designed rusher than he'd ever had in his career under Josh McDaniels And so like are we going to see Drake may use that way because made wasn't used as a design rusher at all Before I think you might be muted eith Yeah, and that's not exactly an apples to apples comparison Obviously, I'm talking about cam Newton after he lost the ability to throw a forward pass

Starting point is 00:16:37 Yeah, but was still the best goal line back in the NFL versus Drake may who I think could definitely have more rushing touchdowns needed last year Yeah, I think you will and so that's where it's like Henderson. I think the rushing touchdown upside might be capped and I don't know what to expect with the receiving whereas Hampton just feels so much so much safer. If you want to swing for upside I could see it because Henderson obviously has the speed and the potential receiving involvement as well. And when you say that Hampton's going, like his draft capital means he's almost certainly going to be a feature back. How long do you think it takes before that happens?

Starting point is 00:17:12 Cause I don't think it'll be- I think it happens this year. I'd be shocked if he's not like playing 60 or 70% of snaps by like week five. I just think Najee is toast. The last thing I was going to bring up is that Greg Roman has kind of a limited upside for his running backs because of the lack of involvement in the passing game specifically.

Starting point is 00:17:29 And so like I definitely think that there is an upside case to be made for taking Henderson over him and I'm fine with that but it would definitely be hampered for me if I'm using that kind of draft capital. Yeah I think it's it's hard to overcome the rookie running back taken in the first round and what that has historically meant. I, I don't, I knew you did a good job of bringing it up. Like Greg Roman's offense is great for running as a team and it has been good for some running backs, but it is often a committee approach in that system. And it's usually a committee, committee approach that is splitting up rushes because there aren't that many targets.

Starting point is 00:18:05 So I just haven't been as enamored with the landing spot for Hampton as a lot of people seem like they have. And maybe I'm a bit over my skis on Henderson as a pass catcher. But I also think I'm more concerned about Najee Harris holding on to his share of the touches for a little while longer than I am with Andre Stevenson. Because even when Harris has struggled with efficiency, he's at least a professional. He holds onto the football and does his job. Stevenson's really had some struggles in that area, which could get the rookie,

Starting point is 00:18:30 and I think Henderson might be better than him in pass protection, which could get the rookie on the field more a little bit earlier. But I think consensus definitely agrees with you on this one, taking Hampton over Henderson. Consensus was definitely with me before the draft on this

Starting point is 00:18:45 next one, RJ Harvey versus Quinn Sean Judkins, and now it's swung completely. I've seen Harvey taken as the RB3 in this class, ahead of Henderson, ahead of Judkins, ahead of anybody else. I, again, another guy that I wasn't super high on coming into the draft, I think everybody got very excited because even if you likedvey, you probably thought Sean Payton took him earlier than anybody, you thought anybody would. I talked about this on FFT dynasty a while back. Being picked 60th overall as a running back has historically guaranteed absolutely nothing for a rookie. There's been more rookies who did nothing than scored 10 fantasy points per game being drafted in this range in the draft. Now his competition is very, very little. Do you think like I saw some of the other days said RJ Harvey in Denver is going to be Pierre Thomas and Aladra Guestame is going

Starting point is 00:19:35 to be Mark Ingram and somebody else like, do you think that Harvey is the Alvin Kamara and the Sean Payton offense or is it just dumb to make comparisons down in camera? Yeah, if I'm going to compare him to anyone, I think it would be Thomas. But honestly, I think he's just his own player and this is a different offense. And so I think we saw enough of Harvey at the collegiate level to feel pretty confident who he is. And I think basically, he's going to play him. This isn't going to sound good, but I think he's going to play a really expanded role that's similar to what they've done with going to sound good, but I think he's going to play a really expanded role that's similar to what they've done with Julian McLaughlin.

Starting point is 00:20:08 And so like that might mean that Esamay is in there for important reps. I'm really curious who's going to be the pass protector. Yes. That could ultimately limit his playing time to like more of like a 50% role in terms of snaps. But I mean, Bucky Irving was able to get away with that last year with that type of a role

Starting point is 00:20:29 through like elite game planning and scheming offensively and play designing and then elite talent. And I think that Harvey could be pretty similar to that in both regards and also really, really great offensive line play in Tampa Bay. And that's kind of the case here in Denver as well. So I think the infrastructure is in place for people to feel extremely optimistic and I totally understand it.

Starting point is 00:20:52 I'm in that camp as well. I loved Harvey's talent, um, with what I saw in film and if they can. Expand on his receiving then like, wow, it could get pretty exciting for fantasy. And that's what we've seen. I mean, Geronte Williams had over 80 targets last year. That's what we've seen from Sean Payton every step along the way. Bo Nix loves to check the ball down. And I think so does Payton. So it's going to like, if he's not on the, if they don't trust him to pass protect, then maybe he's not on the field for those downs. But I do think if they might design some screens to him, and then he

Starting point is 00:21:21 might get some, some more check downs as well. And I think the rushing will be really, really good, like probably top 10 rushing efficiency Fed, I guess, going into this year. I think one of the best, maybe debates the wrong word, maybe the debates for the wrong word for what we're doing here. But one of the best debates we had in April when we were prepping for the draft was when you and Matt Waldman talked about Quinjohn Judkins and Waldman lovedkins, called him the second best pure rusher in the class behind Ashton Gentry. And you had a lot of questions about Judkins as in his rushing efficiency

Starting point is 00:21:54 and what the advanced stats said. And that debate has gone on, I think between film people and advanced stats. And even some of the film people don't love Judkins. I loved the landing spot in Cleveland because I do think that he's going to dominate early downs. What I think is really interesting is everybody, not everybody, some people talk about Harvey

Starting point is 00:22:14 as becoming his pass catching savant with Sean Payton. Quintchon Judkins had more catches the last two years in college than RJ Harvey did. Playing with Trevion Henderson, like he was involved in the passing game as well. I'm thinking there will be a split between him and Samson and we'll talk about Samson here in a little bit because I like him as well. But do you expect Judkins to be, like you mentioned Hampton because of his draft capital will be a workhorse running back. Do you think Judkins is a workhorse running back or are you more concerned about

Starting point is 00:22:40 that than you are with Harvey? I definitely think he'll be the workhorse there. I don't know how much, how much Samson will factor in to be honest. I just don't think he's a great fit. Um, but we'll see. Judkins, my problem with him is I just don't, it's, I think he could get 300 touches and they could be like easily the least efficient touches of any running back that's getting over 200 touches this year. Um, I'm, I worried about the offensive ecosystem there. And I also like, worry about him like being able to create a ton of yards on his own. That was that was my concern with this analytical profile was like a lack of pass protection and receiving and then a lack of creating yards on his own after contact. But it's I think it's a great fit with the Fanski here. Um, when I did analytical comparisons for Juggins collegiate career, um, it was a bunch of guys who did not pan out at the NFL level and then Nick Chubb.

Starting point is 00:23:34 Right. And so it was like, basically if he's going to, um, be good, like based off of recent history, like that's kind of the career arc that we need. And then he gets, you know, he lands in the exact spot that Cheb succeeded in. So I think he'll get loaded up, but I just don't, I worry about touchdown upside in this offense and I worry about receiving. And so it's like, if it's just a bunch of early down runs

Starting point is 00:23:56 for 3.9, four yards per carry, like that's just not doing much for fantasy. And that will be interesting in Denver also because the last few years, like Sean Payton running backs have not scored touchdowns. Russell Wilson had the big passing touchdown season, Bo Nix threw more touchdowns than we expected last year. And so I don't know that either one of these guys score a bunch of touchdowns.

Starting point is 00:24:15 I think it's funny though, going back to Waldman, like anybody who's followed him for a while knows he's a Cleveland guy, knows that one of his best calls several years ago was Nick Chubb. And so then you get Judkins in the same spot with Jacob saying there was a statistical similarity there. And it is kind of funny. But yeah, I think I expect Judkins to be similar to Harvey this year. And somebody in the chat brought up something that I've talked about regularly on this show. We haven't brought up in this debate yet. So he says people fall in love with projections, but at the end of the day,

Starting point is 00:24:47 isn't Harvey pretty much only for contenders due to age. Somebody else said most running backs are, but does it impact your view of those two guys at all that Harvey's can be 24 years old at the start of the season? Judkins won't turn 22 until October. I definitely, yeah, I think Jugguck is more of like a long-term window. I don't know if he's going to give you much this year beyond just like a solid running back 24 finish, something like

Starting point is 00:25:15 that, where at the end of the year, he's just turning out 12 points per game or whatever. The only places that I've landed Harvey, it's been hard to get them people are really just clamoring to get their hands on Harvey the back end of the first round trading up to get him trained in front of you. Like the only places I've been able to get him are on teams where I feel a need to like supercharge the team where it's like, I think that this team could be really good if he is like this year's Bucky Irving, you know? Um, and so it is, it is kind of like a shorter term window.

Starting point is 00:25:42 I think that is kind of the right way to look at these two dynasty rookie debate number three, we're moving to wide receiver. And I put this one on here a little bit selfishly. It's Luther Burden versus Matthew Golden because these two guys, including Ibuka, like all three of them, I go back and forth and back and forth.

Starting point is 00:26:01 I love the opportunity for Golden because I don't think they have a wide receiver one. I think them taking him in round one signifies they think he could be that guy. I think that he has obviously with his speed that big playability and Luther Burden I've been all over the map one. Basically it's either you're in love with him because he's running slot snaps in the summer in a Ben Johnson offense, or he can only do one or two things as a wide receiver, he's going to be a flop. Do you think that Golden's maybe safer in terms of an early target projection and Burden has more long-term upside?

Starting point is 00:26:38 Yeah, yeah. I would be pretty surprised if Golden isn't somebody who can at least use just like a low and wide receiver three this year. I think there's a decent chance that he does lead them in targets. I think the most likely path to him being somebody that you can't use is if Green Bay just like again doesn't believe in the passing game and just has to revert back to like just all the running that they did last year. But I think there are so many reasons why it devolved like that last year. And if they get even like a 50th percentile outcome, like it should be a more balanced offense, I think they have the pieces in place. The four historically is really like to be a passing centric offense. And so that's my expectation is they'll at least be like, neutral when it comes to passing. And

Starting point is 00:27:20 he has a good chance to be the target leader because I think he'll be out there Especially by the midway point to the end of the season. He'll be out there for close to every down Whereas like Jayden Reed is kind of relegated to just you know three receiver sets I think golden is something they can move around the formation use in all different ways Whereas Luther burden might be that Jayden Reed kind of role where he's only playing in three receiver sets. And even then, like they have guys that they can use. Like if they're doing if they're wanting, if they're intent on getting Cole Komet and Loveland on the field, then that might affect him some. So I guess I'm supposed to argue for Luther Burden here. It's it's a very, very volatile range of outcomes with Burden.

Starting point is 00:28:05 I would say just about as much as any player that you're going to be taking in the first couple of rounds. And the top end of that range is that he could, within two months, be one of the most valuable perceived value players out of this rookie class. That wouldn't surprise me at all. A year ago, that's basically where he was in terms of people's perceived value. I think the talent was clear last year, even though it was a dysfunctional situation there in Mizzou on occasion, the talent was still clear.

Starting point is 00:28:37 Like this guy can win in a variety of ways. I don't think he's just a gadget player. Like people have mentioned, you know, I think he's a stud like Ben Johnson has called him And I think that the team's you know investment in him signals that belief And so if he comes out there and looks the part and Ben Johnson is What we think he is the guy that completely revitalized Detroit's offense like that like it had basically happened overnight Where they ended that in year-over-year improvement where're like, now we're just this fantasy point print shop. We're creating more offensive plays than any team in football.

Starting point is 00:29:11 I don't know if it will reach that level of Chicago, but if that exists, that upside exists, whereas we pretty much know what we have in Green Bay. That's the case with Burden is if he's there, if you're staring down burden at a, at a reasonable price, I think if you can afford to take the chance on them, it could absolutely be worth it. So I've got a rebuild where I have the fifth pick, the 10th pick and the 11th pick in the rookie draft coming up. Ather said it was going to start the first week of June. Now he said June 9th, but that shouldn't be a surprise because he also

Starting point is 00:29:43 thinks 1130 is the afternoon. So June 9th probably is the first week of June still. Anyway, I have considered taking both of those guys because I don't really want to draft a bunch of running backs on a team that's at least a year away. But I've also thought I see burden fall to early round two in super flex quite regularly. I've seen it happen a couple of times with Matthew Golden as well. I think if both those guys are available at pick 11, you can probably trade back to 202 or 203 and still get one of them.

Starting point is 00:30:12 And I'd be okay with just not having to make that choice. Let somebody else make the choice for me. Last thing on these two guys, do you think it's fair to say, I think a lot of people look at Golden's combine and think, well, yeah, he was a first round pick because he was the fastest wide receiver running the 40 and he's a one trick pony. He's just going to be a big play guy. I think Golden, we have more evidence at least to this point of Golden,

Starting point is 00:30:37 Golden having a more diverse route tree and diverse usage than Luther Burton. Yeah. Yeah. I think the reason that he was around, I mean, the 40-10 probably had something to do with it, but I think the reason he was around one pick is you saw him come on at the end of the season and become a guy who can win all over the field and demand targets. He looks like Kyle Williams who people love so much. It's like that kind of winner as a route runner with just precision and footwork and timing.

Starting point is 00:31:05 And like, if you pair that up with a quarterback, you can throw with anticipation, then like, he could be somebody who's getting open and creating first downs, like all the time, like we saw with lad McConkey when he got paired up with Justin Herbert. He reminds me of a conkey a little bit in the way that he moves. I think the conkey is more sudden with his start stop ability. Um, but golden is very, very smooth. And yeah, I think Jordan Love is that guy.

Starting point is 00:31:26 I think he can throw with anticipation. He's obviously erratic at times, but like if those two get on the same page, I think it's different than, Burden mostly was like the gadgety stuff and then he does win on the vertical plane, but it's almost like exclusively slot fades and then like winning at the catch point

Starting point is 00:31:43 or just burning people outright. There wasn't nearly as much like deep down the field, the Burden, but we saw Golden do it more. And I think it's funny because like the obvious edge for Luther Burden, at least for me, is Ben Johnson. And maybe everything else about the situation, I feel better about Matthew Golden, I feel I'm hopeful for Caleb Williams, but I feel better about Jordan Love as a pastor right now than I do Caleb Williams. I don't think Jayden Reed or Romeo Dobbs or Christian Watson or Dontavian Wicks matters to Matthew Golden.

Starting point is 00:32:25 If he hits his peak, DJ Moore and Roma Dunze could still be a bit more of a problem for Luther Verdon as he tries to become a starting wide receiver. And I do think we see him probably in three wide receiver sets early on. And like we likely hopefully see Golden as more of a full-time wide receiver. Let's take our second break. Real quick. Yeah, Matt LaFleur is the man like the the the point here being that like Ben Johnson is what might put Luther Byrne over people's heads over golden people's heads. Like, I think that's a recency bias and it's entirely possible that before is as good as him. I you know, we can list off all the reasons why we're excited about Ben Johnson. But like LaFleur has been doing this for a long time. If you go watch the Jordan Love quarterback videos like throwing from a clean pocket throwing first pressure, it's amazing how many plays were left on the field by the wide receiver group. I and that's because they're open all the time. LaFleur is scheming them open all the time.

Starting point is 00:33:22 time. LeFleur is scheming them open all the time. Dontevian Wicks. Yeah. Wicks, Reid, Dubs, it was all of them last year. It really was. Like I think Dubs and Reid are pretty good players, but like no one was exempt. And I really do think that like LeFleur is as good as it gets in terms of the route concepts and layering things in a way that allows people to become open and then create yards after the catch. Okay. Sorry about that false start, Harry. We will talk about Basial Tutin, Trey Harris, Jack Besh and more after the second break. Okay, so this next debate, we're going to the lower end guys, maybe round two, maybe round three for a couple of these guys. Some of you may find one of these guys in round four, probably just Dylan Sampson.

Starting point is 00:34:01 But the first debate is Basial Tutin versus versus Dylan Samson. And I basically need to debate the entire world on Bachel Tutin because he is the darling of the 2025 rookie running back class. And I'm just, I'll just say it right off the top and you can just help me figure this out. right off the top and you can just help me figure this out. I don't understand why a day three running back with legitimate ball security concerns that already flashed over the summer, landing in an already crowded backfield with two running backs who were drafted higher

Starting point is 00:34:41 and have flashed in the NFL, is suddenly been anointed. The last time I looked at DLF ADP, Tooten was two spots behind Travis ETN and 10 spots ahead of Tank Bigsby. I don't get it at all. Well, the reason is because you have fools like me, Heath, who have no sense of self-preservation. And in years past, we've just been like, draft Yvonne Aitchin, like, you aren't even going to be here tomorrow. Who cares? Like, it's all about upside. As I was talking about Luther Burden and saying he had the widest range of outcomes, anyone he could draft in the top two rounds, I was like, well, actually, it's Byshell Tooten, I think. And that's, that's why is the upside is through the roof. I've been trying to do my best,

Starting point is 00:35:23 not just pump ridiculous amounts of like hope out there with the tooting stuff, because it's very easy to do. Everything is there like the collegiate analytics are nuts is avoided tackle rate is yards after the contact all that stuff that is exciting. It gets people ramped up about the upside is like better, slightly better than Bucky Irving's career stats and his stats were really good. And then we see him like have this massive year. Now he's with, you know, students with his coordinator. They were really good, like the only guy who has like better stats and from this class, if you look at that advanced stuff is basically Ash and Jaynti. But at the same time, he had the highest stuffed rate by far, which is runs of zero or a few yards. He's creating negative plays to go with the explosives. The fumbles are an issue. So easily,

Starting point is 00:36:16 you could see paths to a coaching staff being like, we can't trust this guy. And if that team already has two other running backs, then maybe he just goes away and you waste it around to pick. But at the same time, you brought up the draft capital for the other guys. One, I would say I'm having a really tough time evaluating draft capital relative to this specific class because we have many GMs and decision makers who have already been on the record for saying, well, we just kind of waited. you know, like we knew that we could wait because we saw it as a tier group and we didn't want to draft at the top of that tier. I think that happened a lot.

Starting point is 00:36:51 And so it's really hard to measure relative to other classes. The second thing is that this is just obvious. I feel like this regime didn't draft these running backs, you know, they didn't draft ETN or Bigsby. They did draft to Liam Cullen early in the off season, said that like, that's kind of a guy that he would like to have. And then they go and get him in the draft. So I think, I'm, I think as long as toon doesn't fumble it away, there's a real

Starting point is 00:37:18 chance that he does have a role right away. I think the team had some kind of role in mind. They have Jackson was so many needs and they took him. But in round four, like most round or running backs don't have a role right away at all at the top of round four, one of the first picks on day three with a bunch of really good running backs still on the board. That's that that part is true. I'll transition away from the, from the the from the tootin questioning to go to Dylan Sampson who I think both of us had ahead of tootin before the NFL draft. I remember several

Starting point is 00:37:54 Jacob Gibbs film cut ups about Dylan Sampson. You loved him. Drafted. I was confused. I was like, is this based off my rankings and I had Sampson too high. Cause like, I can't argue for him over tootin at this point, but I'm very glad to hear. No, I, well, I think the argument is that the draft capital is not different enough. The competition they will face for touches is not different enough to supersede the guy that we thought was better. The guy who led the ACC, I see this almost at ACC, but I think that was Tutin, led the SEC, the real football conference in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns last year.

Starting point is 00:38:36 And that we all loved on film and statistically coming into the draft. If one of these guys was around two pick and the other one falls to round five, then obviously you've got to make that distinction. If one of these guys goes to a place with an established starter, if Sampson had, and Tooten goes to a place where there's just the RJ Harvey role, then I would understand that as well. But I don't, and I love Judkins. I just argued for him. I think he's going to be a very good back in the NFL. I don't, I just don't necessarily agree that the rookie day two pick is necessarily more difficult to overcome than the day one and

Starting point is 00:39:12 the day two pick that we're already have shown the ability to succeed in the NFL. Yeah, I think that's all fair. So what do you, are you saying that you'd rather have Samson or like you would just rather arbitrage like trade the round two pick pick up around to pick next year and take Samson around? I have, I have yet to consider tootin in round two. So I'm talking about around three pick that tootin does not ever enter your starting lineup and fantasy than that he becomes the lead running back for Jacksonville. That's fair. Yeah, I loved Samson. You're not going to get me to say anything bad about him. I just don't know what the fit is here. Stefanski is a mixed running scheme that uses

Starting point is 00:40:03 you know, a lot of shotgun and under center runs, whereas like with Samson, I was really hoping he might land with a team that is leaning more heavily into the shotgun running. Um, cause that's almost exclusively how he was used at the collegiate level. Um, the other thing is I don't feel like he fits the scheme very well in, in terms of the specific types of runs that they like to use. Uh, it felt like truly just the like, we've got this guy this high on our board. And this is just how we draft. This is our philosophy is like, we're just taking the best available player,

Starting point is 00:40:32 kind of like they do with QB. And I just don't know what to make of that. No, I can understand if it's a scheme thing when you before the draft, I think you expected Judkins to get drafted before Samson. So you may have had Judkins higher than your rankings, but if you were just evaluating the two rushers and how you felt about them based on film and stats, did you significantly like Judkins more than Samson? Or did you even have Samson ahead of Judkins? I felt like Judkins was more versatile where like you could plug him into a lot

Starting point is 00:41:01 of different types of offenses and he would help. Sampson, I think it would have to be a specific, like if he's with a decent offensive line where he can read and react, I think he could be really, really good and could be like a lead back and keep an offense on track while also creating explosive plays better than Judkins. But it was kind of specific to where he landed. And so to see the NFL not really value him that much, and then him land as a backup to a team that has a guy that they took, I mean, early, they drafted Jenkins ahead of Trevion Henderson. Um, that's just tough. I just don't, I haven't got him anywhere, which sucks. Cause I really,

Starting point is 00:41:39 really liked them. Right. No, I think like, I expect honestly, both of these teams to run two back systems. That's historically what both of these coaches have done. We had Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. We had Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford for a while. Like I think they'll have two backs getting eight to 10 touches minimum per game. Samson's probably still not that worthwhile. I just, I don't know. Ford's still there, right? I think it'll be forward. Like if they get rid of Ford, then maybe I could be talking to him, but I'm afraid he's just the better passing down skill set of the two. The indications we, and this could turn as well, like he's got a summer to change

Starting point is 00:42:15 opinions. They were not very fond of Jerome Ford last year. They kind of went to him because they couldn't do anything else, but they really, I think they thought he danced too much and he'd make a, he'd have an 80 yard run. And then he's kind of a Ken Walker, but much, much worse. And I think Tooten has the same thing. More often than not, I think both these guys need an injury before they're going to have success. And Mr. Poppinski, one of our top commenters says it might take a shot on Jordan James before Sampson. I've got Jordan James ahead of Tootin as well. So I'm okay with that as well. I almost put James. Obviously, you love the landing spot if he gets a chance. Let's go to number five in the debates.

Starting point is 00:42:57 And this is one, I think you actually have a tier separating these guys. Adam Azer, you're aligning yourself with Azer because Adam Azer said that he thought it was, he said, I would not be surprised if Trey Harris was the best rookie wide receiver this year. And I like the opportunity better for Besh. And I think I like the skillset better for Besh. What is it about Trey Harris that you think he does really well? And do you think the Chargers have to make a big change in terms of pass volume for him to make a difference with Lad McConkey already there?

Starting point is 00:43:32 I think what Trey Harris does really well is he crushes press coverage. If he if you can get him in one on one situations, he is just a handful physically. He's extremely powerful when attacking on the vertical plane coming back to the ball and there are very few Cornerbacks defensive backs at all who are going to be able to contend with him there I think he's just gonna win those most of time. I don't remember seeing him ever drop a catch that hit his hands He won in contested catch situations all the time and I do think he can create some separation They used him at Ole Miss in a very limited way. So we don't know,

Starting point is 00:44:09 there's no way to feel confidence in how his Raptory will translate to the pros. But he did win over and over and over. And the analytical stuff is absolutely insane for Harris. And so that's the upside case is that all this underlying stuff data wise suggested he's really good and then you put on the film and it's like, wow, this guy is a monster. And if he gets to go play in LA with a great quarterback and lad McConkey being someone who really, really threatens opposing defenses, then you can see a path to him getting more one-on-one looks. I don't know if it's going to be a high target volume role.

Starting point is 00:44:43 I think it will probably be something similar to what Josh Palmer saw last year. But I think that he could be a lot more efficient with those looks and potentially then get more looks because he's capitalizing on those. If you watch the Herbert film, it's kind of similar to Jordan Love, except that he does have a lot of McConkey. But other than that, it's like, man, he's making just phenomenal plays, and they're letting him down. Like he, especially, especially in the improv game, like he needs somebody else who can win and come back to the ball and make these plays. And it was basically just McConkey. So I'm really excited for Harris there. I think he has much more upside than Besh,

Starting point is 00:45:21 but it also wouldn't surprise me. Receivers who are almost exclusively vertical threats and are running really deep routes often are much cooler for real life than they are for fantasy. Like Alec Pierce has been a very good real life player for the Colts. Doesn't matter for fantasy and part of that's the QB play. Um, but a big part of it's, it's just really hard to get a target shared north of even like 15, 18% in that role. I think Besh's upside might be a little bit understated

Starting point is 00:45:47 just because we have a lot of uncertainty about how they're going to use the weapons there in Las Vegas, because they have a lot of guys that can do multiple things. Jacoby Myers is better in the slot, but we've seen him perform as a number one wide receiver. Brock Bowers is going to move all over the field, and they're talking about doing the same thing with Besh.

Starting point is 00:46:05 He's going to play both outside and inside. I don't know that he has a predominant role in this offense. It does seem it's interesting because I think it's more likely that Besh in the next two years becomes the number one wide receiver for the Raiders, but maybe not the number one target owner because Bowers is there. But I also think it's more likely that the Raiders throw a hundred more passes than the Chargers do over the next couple of years. And I just have a hard time in an offense that I expect to throw 500 times. Harris has to be the

Starting point is 00:46:36 type of guy you were describing that goes downfield and makes big plays and turns into more of a best ball splash play on a week to week basis, as opposed to someone that you actually like I think we probably have three or four weeks in a row this year where he has a combined ten targets are you projecting the Raiders for significantly more pass volume this year than LA I am yes I'm projecting them for significantly less pass volume than they had last year I don't think they'll throw as much as they did last year. They drafted Ashton Jennings, changed offensive coordinators. So, but I also don't think they're going to be good.

Starting point is 00:47:12 I think they're probably going to be playing from behind. That's what I was wondering. Is it predicate on the defense mostly? Cause I think they would like to run first probably under Chip Kelly and Jane Deeb, but even most run first offenses throw less than Greg Roman offenses. Yeah. Or throw more than Greg Roman offenses. So I don't think the Hampton pick signifies to me that anything's going to change with

Starting point is 00:47:35 Greg Roman's approach. And so if that's the case and there's 500 rush attempts, it gets difficult, the math, with Lad McConkie likely being a 27, 28 28 percent target shirt right i think you're probably right i think if you watch the way that their season unfolded last year the chargers really wanted to be that team but the run game was awful right people remember some of the big dobbins runs but like down to down the success rate of that offense was really bad i think they're in the bottom like six or seven overall and rushing success rate on the year um and so they kind of had to pass more, but I think if Hampton changes that,

Starting point is 00:48:07 then that's probably, we'll probably getting what we thought we were getting going into last year. Yeah, 100% agree. Last debate, this one is gonna hurt Jacob because I know that he loves Harold Fanon, just like I love Harold Fanon, but he has to argue against Harold Fanon because he gets the Terrence Ferguson side of the argument.

Starting point is 00:48:24 I'll let you start this one. This one's really tough because I liked Fanon because he gets the Terrence Ferguson side of the argument. I'll let you start this one. This one's really tough because I liked Fanon more going into the process. Even though I did like Ferguson a lot. I loved Fanon and the more that I've dug into a new coach in Cleveland. You have his name off the top. I don't my question to you about him as you look up his name because I I there are certain head coaches that cycle through, through offensive coordinators that I mostly don't think matter because I think the head coach has more to do with the

Starting point is 00:48:53 offensive philosophy than the coordinator does. And that's kind of like, that could be wrong about Cleveland this year. Stephanski has kind of gone back and forth with play calling duties, but even when he's not had them a lot of times, it still feels like a Stefanski offense to me with a bunch of tight ends on the field and a bunch of targets going to those tight ends. But if this new coach, you're gonna give us his name in just a moment because I've forgotten it, if he changes that then that will hurt some of my argument for Fannet. Well I'm again arguing against myself. I actually think Tommy Reese is the new coach will kind

Starting point is 00:49:21 of accentuate what Stefanski likes to do. Um, if you look at like collegiate data for tight ends that have been drafted over the last like five or 10 years, you will notice, um, wow. I'm blanking on his name, Notre Dame, Michael Maher, Michael Maher's name at like the top of a lot of those lists ahead of some of the best young tight ends. And it's like weird cause he hasn't shown that as a talent necessarily at the NFL level and I think a lot of it has the more that I dug into the offenses for Tommy Reese I think he was the coach of Notre Dame I think a lot of it has to do with him really liking to feature that position and if you've heard if you've paid attention to them talk about

Starting point is 00:50:00 Harold Fanon is like the queen piece for this offense so they can move around all over the place create mismatches I do think that it's gonna be really fun to watch him and in joke you together this year and then down the line He's probably the heir apparent for an injoki and might be a really important part of the offense for Ferguson I think the the reason you might take a bet on him over Fanon is it's probably more likely that he turns into something That's a huge spike in perceived value in year one. Even if Fanon were to be that queen piece and get on the field, what does it really result in? Like the best case is Isaiah likely even in an awesome offense and

Starting point is 00:50:37 having established himself in the league for years as a good player likely is still intermittently relevant for fantasy, often not. Whereas Ferguson could establish himself as the tight end one for Sean McVeigh offense that is lacking in targets. Like I think Devante and Puka will take a massive share, but a lot of targets are open from the past years. Um, and I think that he could get some of those catch and run targets where the defense is just like not worried about him because they've got to worry about the other pieces and he's good when he

Starting point is 00:51:07 gets that buildup speed like he's really athletic and smooth. Um, I think he could make some plays and quickly establish himself as the Titan three in this class and somebody that people are pretty excited for. Um, so that's, that's why I would bet on him is I liked his film. I liked his analytics. And obviously the Lennox spot is just really fun and exciting. Yeah, I don't dislike him is I liked his film. I liked his analytics and obviously the Lennox spot is just really fun and exciting. Yeah. I don't dislike him and if I air when it comes to offensive coordinators and coaches, it's in putting too much faith in what they have or haven't done in the past.

Starting point is 00:51:34 I'll just admit that I worry a little bit for Ferguson about how concentrated McVeigh's offense has traditionally been and the fact that he has Pukunakua and 10 target per game, Devonte Adams and Kyron Williams, who always gets 300 carries. And I just don't know. I think there could be a couple of spike weeks for Ferguson. What I would say as far as the path for Fannins value to spike as a rookie is that David Njoku missed six games last year. David Njoku has only played 16 games twice

Starting point is 00:52:05 in the last six years. If there's a three or four game absence for Njoku and Fanon pops off, and then Njoku's a free agent after this year, people are going to get way too excited about Harold Fanon going into his second season. I'm gonna love it, so I'm gonna have a bunch of them already. But I just, listen, I gushed about Harold Fanon and Jacob did too all during the pre-draft process. All we had, um, it was just a couple of

Starting point is 00:52:32 days ago, had somebody, uh, Smitty on the show talking about how he almost had a triple crown in college, leading the position in all receiving categories, not the position all players, including wide receivers while playing tight end. And then he goes to maybe the best offense right now, or one of the top two or three offenses right now for tight end production, you do have to be patient with Fannin and that's why he falls a little bit, but every time the round says three at the start of it and Harold Fannin is still available. I am just sprinting to make that pick because I think it's an absolute

Starting point is 00:53:05 smash and if he hits you're probably getting a top five dynasty titan. Yeah I love it I've landed a ton of them I get them in round three and Titan premium leagues and that's just crazy to me. Jacob awesome awesome stuff as always thank you to Harry for making everything work like it's supposed to. I hope we get Jacob back very soon, but I will talk to you next Tuesday. Thanks to everybody who was active in the chat. We'll talk to you next Tuesday.

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Fantasy Football Today - Rookie Debates! Henderson vs Hampton, Burden Vs Golden + More (05/30 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

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