Fantasy Football Today - Round 2/3 RBs Part One! Who to Draft With Those Crucial Picks (06/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 11, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts How do you decide between James Cook, Isiah ...Pacheco, Rachaad White, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon? We'll put those six running backs under the microscope and help you figure out your favorites. Dave and Jamey start with the RBs they often draft (3:50) and the ones they avoid (13:10). They disagree on Jacobs and Cook ... More detailed thoughts plus pros and cons on Cook (15:00), Pacheco (21:30) and White (30:30). Will Pacheco see an increase in his passing game role? Is White too inefficient to trust? ... We finish with Jacobs, Mixon (43:45) and Henry (48:40). How much of a role will Dameon Pierce have in the Texans backfield? Could we really justify taking Henry in the second round of a PPR draft? ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:24 Your game time tastes like miller time learn more at millerlight.ca must be legal drinking age this is fantasy football today from cbs sports it's time to dominate your fantasy league CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
Starting point is 00:02:01 Okay, you've got a big decision to make in round two or three. You want to take a running back, but you're having trouble deciding. Who do I take? James Cook, Isaiah Pacheco, Alvin Kamara. Actually, it's a whole list that we're going through in the consensus ranking, similar to what we did last week. But this is nine through 17.
Starting point is 00:02:16 And Jamie, Dave's here as well. But Jamie, last week, you and I did that show with the wide receiver rankings was your rankings, not consensus. And it was 10 through 18, I believe. And it was Olave, London, Waddle, Pittman, Adams, Evans, Ayuk, Nico Collins, Debo Samuel. And I thought what was so unique about that group is really you could see them going in any order,
Starting point is 00:02:41 right? Some people could be a big Ayuk fan. They could take him ahead of Chris Olave, whatever. I don't know if you feel that way about this group, but this is the group after Barkley, Kyron Williams, and ETN. Probably a little bit more question marks here, and the consensus rankings are Rashad White, James Cook, Isaiah Pacheco, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Derek Henry, Alvin Kamara, Devon Achan, Ken Walker. Do you think that group is completely interchangeable or do you think there are tiers there? I think they're somewhat interchangeable.
Starting point is 00:03:23 Somewhat interchangeable. Okay. Yeah. I mean like that, that, that group is, I think pretty much locked in. Like you could make cases for potentially Montgomery, potentially is a mere white, you know, if Jonathan Brooks is 100% healthy, maybe he jumps into this group. Um, you know, if something were to, let's say to happen to, you know, the, the Cardinals don't love Trey Benson, James Conard creeps back into this range, you know,
Starting point is 00:03:49 something like that, but, or, or vice versa injury to one of those guys. So, but I, I think those, those are the,
Starting point is 00:03:56 the running backs that you're talking about for sure, you know, in, in this range and where they go is probably just the biggest, you know, determining factor. But like you said, it comes down to, I think, personal preference. Like, you know, I'm getting a little bit more concerned about, you know, Josh Jacobs, for example, by comparison to a couple of other guys in this group.
Starting point is 00:04:19 Dave, could you see how many of these guys could you see going late in the second round? So just give me a yes or no. Could you see these going late in the second round so just give me a yes or no can you see these guys going in the second round rashad white in ppr yes james cook no oh really okay no uh pacheco yeah i think he could jacobs yeah mix i disagree with jamie i i mean i'm curious to hear jamie's thoughts on thoughts on Jacobs and what he sees. And I'll give you my research on Jacobs. Who'd you say? Mixon.
Starting point is 00:04:51 No, not round two. I'm not asking about you. I'm asking, do you think people would take him there? That's just not round two. And you're still a no on James cook. Correct.
Starting point is 00:05:02 Okay. Derek Henry. Non PPR. Yes. Half Henry. Non-PPR, yes. Half PPR, full PPR? Maybe in half PPR. Camara. Nope. A-chan.
Starting point is 00:05:14 Not in round two. A-chan. You got to say yes on A-chan because his ADP is... I do have to say yes on A-chan. Ken Walker. No. Okay.
Starting point is 00:05:24 All right. So let's get to it. Give me a running back in this range, 9 through 17 in the consensus rankings, Jamie, that you find yourself drafting a lot. James Cook. And you're cool with him in round two? Very much so.
Starting point is 00:05:37 Alright. Let's hear about it. Yeah, go ahead. I mean, we talked about this previously. I did this for our bold predictions for the magazine. I think he's going to have a chance to lead running backs in receptions this year. I'll azer stat it for you. If you take out the game where he didn't get a target, now it's not because of injury or anything else.
Starting point is 00:05:56 I'm just doing it for fun. If you take out the game where he didn't get a target, which is a little weird, in the Week 16 matchup against the Chargers, in the nine games with Joe Brady brady was on pace for 60 catches now they just lost over 200 targets and over 120 what was it receptions 100 and uh 152 receptions and 241 targets with gabe davis and stefan diggs i'll say that the right the right way with stefan diggs and gabe davis gone um that you know you're looking at this receiving core and there's a lot to prove and so i think what joe brady will do is just give
Starting point is 00:06:29 james cook an opportunity to catch more passes and so will he get to 76 or 77 like you know breese hall and and alvin kamara were a year ago probably not but you know just having some fun with it uh but in any event um in the nine games he he was on pace for 52 catches. I'm sorry, in the nine games, yes, he was on pace for 52 catches. Take out that game, he was on pace for 60 catches. And I think that's going to be a huge asset for him, on top of the fact that I think he'll score more than six total touchdowns, certainly more than two rushing touchdowns. So I like the setup for James Cook quite a bit.
Starting point is 00:07:02 Dave, why are you a no on Cook in round two? I'm just going to go on the track record of Buffalo Bills running back since Josh Allen has come to power at quarterback for them. And just every year we get enamored with a Bills running back. And it was kind of easier to be okay with a Bills running back before this year because the draft capital wasn't very high james cook last year where were we taking four or five somewhere in that range i think i felt like that wasn't too high to take the chance on james cook knowing that things could go wrong and for
Starting point is 00:07:34 the first half of the year things definitely weren't great for james cook in the second half the year he he did well the offensive coordinator changed man he got a ton more work, but then he tailed off at the end of the year. And it, it just makes me nervous to be that all in on a Bill's running back. Even when as talented as James Cook, um, I don't care about them drafting Ray Davis. I know someone else is going to be there, whether it's Davis or Ty Johnson to take away some work that shouldn't stop you. What stops me is that Josh Allen dominates in the red zone. He gets tons of touchdowns on the ground there, and he's going to continue to throw the ball to everybody. It's not going to be just James Cook. The types of targets that are missing from that offense, Gabe Davis is an
Starting point is 00:08:14 example. That's deep shots. Those are downfield. I don't think James Cook is going to get a lot of those. Stephon Diggs was working the intermediate area, the short area. He worked everywhere. How many of those targets is James Cook going to get? I get where you're coming from, and I think he's going to be good. I just don't think he's going to be around too good. It's too close to his ceiling for me. Okay. So how about – well, who's a player, Dave, that you draft a lot? It's Jacobs, and it's because of where he's ended up,
Starting point is 00:08:43 and I really like where he's ended up, and the potential that he has, and what we've seen from him, not last year, because I think we can all agree that last year was kind of a mess for him. But I think moving forward, he's got a chance to be not just the lead back in Green Bay. I think that's kind of obvious, but I think he's going to get a lot of work. He got over 20 touches a game last year when he was healthy in Las Vegas. This is one of my favorite stats. I shared this with you, Adam. I want to share it with everybody, including Jamie.
Starting point is 00:09:12 LaFleur's coach for five years in Green Bay, 83 regular season games. 67 of those 83 regular season games, at least one running back. At least one has had at least 15 touches in a game. Last year, when Jacobs had 15 touches, it happened to 11 games. He averaged 15.1 PPR points. 15.1 is okay. The year before was the breakout year, the contract year for Jacobs. 15 games with 15 plus touches, 20.8 PPR points per game.
Starting point is 00:09:38 This is a better offense that he's in compared to what he was in in Las Vegas. I think the opportunities are not going to shrink for him. The track record is what it is with LaFleur. I think the offensive line is an upgrade for him as well. And he's not going to be holding out going into training camp. He won't miss a chunk of training camp. Hopefully, fingers crossed, he stays healthy in the early going. The 26-year-old Jacobs can go back to being 15-plus PPR points
Starting point is 00:10:01 with higher upside than almost any running back that we will talk about on today's show. I just don't see in the passing game. That's a problem. I think they're going to use Lloyd. I think they're going to use Dylan too much. It just feels like a passing game.
Starting point is 00:10:13 No, no, no, no, no. They're going to use Lloyd in the passing game. They're going to use Dylan. I still think too much.
Starting point is 00:10:17 They're going to use Lloyd in the passing game. Yeah. That's interesting. Yeah, I think they will. Well, Josh Jacobs in his career, I think he has nine catches on third down. So, again, this is another guy that stays on the field so much,
Starting point is 00:10:32 like Mixon, where it doesn't have to be a third down back. It's just a matter of is Jordan Love going to throw to him on first and second down. So how many catches are we thinking? That's where you guys disagree. How many catches are we thinking for Jacobs? Well, last year, what did he average? I'm looking at it right now.
Starting point is 00:10:48 37 in 13 games. 2.3 catches per game. It's actually one of the lowest catch per game averages and only three targets per game. That's not true. I said one of the lowest of the guys that we're going to talk about today. No, no.
Starting point is 00:11:01 I think he averaged more catches than that unless I have the wrong stats for him. I'm looking. Oh, no. That's at the end of the than that. Unless I have the wrong stats for him. I'm looking. Oh no. That's at the end of the year, three catches per game. I had a filter on for James cook. That's my bad.
Starting point is 00:11:10 What do you see? Three catches per game. I would take that in a heartbeat. That's 50 catches. If he stays healthy, let's put it at 48. So that way he's just shy of it. That's,
Starting point is 00:11:19 that's a realistic expectation. And just the reason why I was surprised by what you said about Marshawn Lloyd at USC, 34 catches in three seasons, Jamie, that's not something that's been an established part of his game. I expect him to be more involved in the passing game because I don't think that Jacobs is going to be the primary pass catcher.
Starting point is 00:11:40 That's interesting. I'd say 35 catches is realistic for him. Man, this is, I mean, it's really fun that you guys disagree so much on those two players, you know, if you're on the clock. Listen, I'm drafting Josh Jacobs. I'm not taking him in round two, and I'd rather have James Cook. You'd rather have James Cook? I'd rather have Jacobs. I'll take Jacobs in round three.
Starting point is 00:12:00 In non-PPR. Jacobs in round three? No. Late round three. And that's how I feel about Cook. We're going to differ by about a round on those two guys. You'll take Cook, and I get it with the catches. Yes, James Cook will have more catches than Josh Jacobs.
Starting point is 00:12:15 I think if Jacobs stays healthy, he'll have more touches, more total yards, more touchdowns. Jacobs has been a top 15 running back per game in full PPR in four or five seasons. He's been top 17 in all five seasons. 17 was his lowest finish in full PPR. That was last year. That's per game. Last year was terrible for Jacobs.
Starting point is 00:12:35 He held out. He got off to a really bad start. He wasn't, truthfully, he wasn't that much better after. He just got a lot more work. But, you know, he's an interesting per carry guy. He's had three years where he's been really bad per carry, you know, he's, he's an interesting per carry guys at three years where he's been really bad per character, you know, not good per carry two years where he's been fantastic, but he's never had competition. He's just never, ever had competition. He's been on pace for like over 300 carries. I think in four or five seasons, we've never seen that from
Starting point is 00:13:00 a Packers running back. Will they use him differently than Aaron Jones? We will find out. And I guess we'll get further into those guys in a little bit. I got to take a break. I'm going to ask you who you're avoiding in this range. Got a couple of news items. Got a funny comment from Apple podcasts, and we'll be right back on fantasy football today. Take back your free time with PC Express online grocery delivery and pickup score in-store promos, PC Optimum points, and more free time. And still get groceries. Shop now at pcexpress.ca. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference.
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Starting point is 00:14:06 So who's a running back in this range? And again, I'll give the names. They are James Cook. Oh, I'll give them in order in the consensus rankings. I have about a thousand tabs open now, so give me one second here. Rashad White, James Cook, Isaiah Pacheco, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Derek Henry,
Starting point is 00:14:24 Alvin Kamara, and Devon Achan. Dave, who's a player that you typically avoid in this rank? I guess it's James Cook. No, I've got two running backs that are ranked even lower than Cook. And so I would prefer Cook over Mixon and Ken Walker. Okay, Mixon and Ken Walker. How about you, Jamie? Who I avoid?
Starting point is 00:14:44 Probably Achan,, especially as cost. Okay. All right, we'll get into all these guys. My heart is beating like a drum right now. The angst, the nervousness. I just made a dynasty trade. I just moved up from seven to four in our big draft. And I am on the clock.
Starting point is 00:15:08 Okay. I gave up to Heath. Heath had the fourth pick. He has a terrible quarterback situation in our super flex league. He has, what did I say? Justin Fields, Ryan Tannehill,
Starting point is 00:15:20 and Aiden O'Connell. So he really wanted Minshew. So I, I had the seventh pick. He had the fourth pick. I gave him Trey McBride. Let me just make sure I have the terms right here. Okay.
Starting point is 00:15:33 I see it. Trey McBride, my first round pick, and Minshew. Yeah. Trey McBride, seventh. And Minshew for the fourth pick and the 23rd pick. And I'm taking neighbors. Oh, you got the 23rd pick out of it, too.
Starting point is 00:15:51 Yeah. Not bad, right? I like it. Oh, man. And now you're going to get your guy. Yeah. I just really want to believe neighbors.
Starting point is 00:16:01 I'm so excited about that. OK. News and notes. Ramondre Stevenson is slimmer. He has slimmed down. They're hoping for more explosive plays from him. They really seem to like Ramondre Stevenson. He appears to be closing in on a contract extension.
Starting point is 00:16:12 He's not part of today's show, but we will talk about him at some point soon. And Mike Tomlin signed a three-year contract extension through 2027. Okay. Let's get back to this discussion here. Running back rankings. Consensus 9 through 17. So James Cook. I don't know if there's anything more we need to this discussion here. Running back rankings, consensus 9 through 17. So James Cook, I don't know if there's anything more we need to say about here.
Starting point is 00:16:32 Pros and cons, you know, I think it's pretty straightforward, right? He's definitely the guy, you know, he's the main guy. The question is, is he going to be the goal line guy? They used Latavius Murray there last year. Are they really going to use Ray Davis there? Because I will say this, guys, about James Cook. The cons are obvious. It's that what Dave said, Josh Allen always steals all the touchdowns. But if they just give him Latavius Murray's role, then he could have a 10 total touchdown type of season. You know, I'm not saying he'll have 10 rushing touchdowns but he just needs to be
Starting point is 00:17:05 you know getting most of the goal line running back work even if Josh Allen has that role Dave then I still think there's enough to go around unless they give it to other guys but if they just say all right it's gonna be Josh Allen and James Cook getting like 90 percent of the goal line running back of the goal line rushes I think think he'll be fine then. What do you think about that? Well, you had the stat on a show recently, I guess it was two weeks ago where the bills have had like 26 goal to go carries.
Starting point is 00:17:36 No, it's 27 touchdowns over the last six years from the inside. I think the five yard line from running back, which is what's in the NFL. Is James Cook the type of running back to make them change their philosophy? But they actually had the eighth most running back carries from the five-yard line or closer last year, believe it or not. How many did Cook have?
Starting point is 00:18:02 Oh, very few. I don't know, four or something. It was mostly a few. You're hoping for something to happen that this coaching staff, with two different offensive coordinators, have viewed the same way. They look at James Cook and they say, awesome running back, great game breaker, awesome pass catcher out of the backfield, and maybe not somebody that we want to get beat up near the goal line.
Starting point is 00:18:24 And that's where somebody like Ray Davis, who has a body similar to Latavius Murray, physical dude, I've stood next to Ray Davis. He was at the senior bowl. That's a guy who could get it done. They've got a quarterback. Who's an absolute hoss and Josh Allen. He's gotten it done. I know that. So that's, it's one area that really makes me nervous about cook on a team that's had such inconsistent production from running backs over those six years that you're talking about. And that's just, it,
Starting point is 00:18:51 it makes me a little bit nervous to trust cook beyond the catches. Cause the catches will be there 50 plus, no problem. 60 plus. Yeah. But I, I just, I,
Starting point is 00:19:02 I worry about the rest of the game to carry him as a second-round pick in fantasy. Well, I mean, we spent the entire show yesterday talking about regression, and Josh Allen was a big part of that and coming down from his 15 touchdowns to where he usually is, which is around eight. And so does that go to a rookie running back, or does that go a couple, if not maybe closer to five, to James Cook? And if he gets that, he is well worth a round to pick. Five rushing touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:19:30 And then what did he have last year? He had four receiving touchdowns, and that's probably unrealistic. But if he's eight plus touchdowns, plus the reception total that he's going to get, he's going to be well worth a round to pick. What kind of total yardage are we looking? What was he on pace for from week 11 on? That's probably good. Last year, he was 1,500 total yards. Well, let me give you this.
Starting point is 00:19:50 Let me compare Pacheco and Cook and their best stretches. Their best stretches. So this is like the Joe Brady... I'll just give you Cook for now. All right. Cook with Joe Brady. That's nine games, including the postseason.
Starting point is 00:20:03 He was on pace for 342 touches, 53 catches, just short of 1,700 total yards and eight touchdowns. I wish I had calculated how many fantasy points per game that was, but that's really good. That's great. Here's the difference between Cook and Pacheco, by the way. They might be similar in yards per carry, and I can't project what their yards per catch is going to be.
Starting point is 00:20:30 There's not enough of a sample size, but it looks like Cook is going to be a lot better than Pacheco in yards per catch. He certainly was last year. Pacheco was not very good at that. I don't know that Pacheco is really a playmaker in the passing game as a receiver. I think Cook might be. So you might get more catches from Cook, but you also might get a lot more receiving yards. But, yeah, I mean, that's a 1,700 total yard pace. So let's knock it down to like 1,550. 1,550 total yards maybe. Maybe he doesn't get quite as much work as he did.
Starting point is 00:21:02 But 10 touchdowns for Cook? Yeah. I mean, again, it's the role in the passing game that you're looking at. They have to replace so much, and you're asking Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman to do that. Okay, so are we good with Cook? Hold on, hold on, hold on. Yeah. Last year, Rashad White had 64 catches, 1,539 yards, and nine touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:21:28 Is that the type of stat line that you're looking at for James Cook? If he gets to those touchdowns, I think the yardage will be better and the receptions will be better. All right. Well, even if he doesn't get that extra yardage and the receptions aren't better, that's still 10th best among running backs. That's not bad. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:21:43 So now if you're drafting him as the 10th running back off the board is it close to a ceiling i would say no i would say yes it's close but it's not at the ceiling but that's if you think he's going to get that much and keep it i think it's a pretty good projection what rashad white did last year was rb10 per game with 64 catches okay uh and uh what was i gonna to say? Oh yeah, keep in mind, I think I've kept bringing this up. I feel like people sort of agree with me. It's kind of tough to the end of round
Starting point is 00:22:12 two. It doesn't really feel like a lot of players are conventional, confident round two picks. You know, like Josh Jacobs going in round two, I think a lot of people would say, no, it's too risky. Dave obviously is okay with that.
Starting point is 00:22:27 And by the way, I've given you consensus rankings here, but Jamie's got Cook ninth and Dave has Cook 15th. So consensus, Cook is actually 10th. Rashad White is ninth. I have him third on this list for whatever reason. So I went Cook, Pacheco, White, sort of group them together. Let's talk about Isaiah Pacheco. Let's move to him. Pros and cons for, Pacheco, White, sort of grouped them together. Let's talk about Isaiah Pacheco. Let's move to him.
Starting point is 00:22:45 Pros and cons for Isaiah Pacheco. Jamie, give me some quick pros and cons for Pacheco. I mean, the offense he plays on seemingly got better. You know, assuming Ray Rice, Rashi Rice isn't suspended for, you know, the majority of the season. But if he's there for a good portion of it, which is what we expect, you know, now you have a better passing game, which would open up things for the run game. Um, he did show that he can be involved in a past game last year and be a significant contributor there. But I mean, you know, you're, you're, you're asking a Andy Reed running back, which for the most part has been an unbelievable situation in Philadelphia, Kansas
Starting point is 00:23:22 city, when that guy has been given the touches that Pacheco got last year to be a star. And that's what he was last year. So very limited competition for touches. Role in the passing game, I think, will continue to grow. And that's the upside. The downside is that the passing game gets better and they get, you know, continue to still be more creative at the goal line and he loses a couple scores and that he's not as involved in the passing game. and they continue to still be more creative at the goal line, and he loses a couple scores, and that he's not as involved in the passing game. Dave, pros and cons for Isaiah Pacheco, who was RB 15, 14 per game, and overall, really,
Starting point is 00:23:58 if you look at depending on different formats. There were seven games last year where he played at least 60% of the snaps. He had at least 20 touches in six of those seven games. He averaged 19.1 PPR points, 16.7 non PPR points with five touchdowns, three games with over a hundred yards in those seven. What's stopping the chiefs from using him to the tune of 60% of the snaps right out of the gate this year. Their running back depth chart is not pretty. They've got Clyde Edwards, the layer as the direct backup. He's on a one-year deal. Uh,
Starting point is 00:24:30 I don't think Luis Rees Zamet is going to end up being someone that takes a lot of work away on, on running downs or in the passing game from Isaiah Pacheco. That's their rugby player for those who may not be aware. He's, he's actually like, he looks like he could be a difference maker in the kick return game in a major way but i don't know if he's gonna end up playing a lot of offense i think pacheco's good 25 years old been in this offense for a
Starting point is 00:24:55 couple years there doesn't seem to be a threat for that passing downs work for that third down role and so i agree with jamie's sentiment that there could be more for him in the passing game. I'm probably making a big mistake by having Pacheco behind Josh Jacobs. That's one that I think I can fix. And I think Pacheco is absolutely worth a second round pick when you get to that point that you talked about, Adam, when you don't really love anybody that's left on the board, but Pacheco's there and you can say, all right, Chiefs are running back. They've got two fast guys on the field now. So the safeties will play back quite a bit. And Pacheco could end up being a very good player, both in the run game and the pass game could end up having his best year
Starting point is 00:25:34 yet. I know I'm going to keep coming back to this. And at some point we should probably spend more time on it. That, that spot, that area that you're talking about, let's say it's what, 18 to 24, 20 to 24? I don't know which range you want to talk about at the end of round two. So for me, I think it's nine running backs, nine wide receivers. And then we'll see how many quarterbacks and tight ends are taken in the middle of round two. Again, yeah, this is where ADP versus analyst expert drafts, depending on how you want to break it down. Um, why it's, in my opinion, so important to take those receivers after you take McCaffrey, because the picks that you're looking at, which is these guys comparatively to Iuke and Waddle and
Starting point is 00:26:20 Pittman and those guys that have, I think more question marks than some of these players. And so if you want to go hero RB, these are the guys that you're looking at, especially if you start with Lamb or Tyreek or Jefferson or any of these guys, you know, picks two through six or seven. It's just, to me, the smarter way to draft. Smarter way to draft is to go McCaffrey
Starting point is 00:26:38 and then one of the top receivers. Yeah, taking McCaffrey is almost like a curse because what you're looking at at 24 and 25 feels a little gross because you have to overpay for some guys. I think the counter to that is like, who cares? You know, just take your best, take the best players. You don't have to get a running back there. If you like the, I don't think you have to get a running back at all. But again, it's, you know, do you want to take the one of the quarterbacks? Do you want to reach for Laporta or Kelsey? And I say reach just because I think they're, they're going to slip a little bit. Or do you, you know, take,
Starting point is 00:27:10 take a receiver that you don't necessarily love. Now the hope is the quarterbacks go. The hope, right. That would, that would help. All right. How many mock drafts have we done,
Starting point is 00:27:20 Adam, where a quarterback has gone in round two? I think, I think Josh Allen, I think they've round two? Uh, I, I think, I think Josh Allen, I think they've been, they've been going to the fan. The only fans mock drafts have been taking quarterbacks earlier than, uh,
Starting point is 00:27:35 than the, uh, CBS draft. Okay. Let me, let me say something on Pacheco here. His, he had,
Starting point is 00:27:42 he averaged in 10 regular season games with Jarek McKinnon, 2.9 targets per game. In four regular season games without McKinnon, Pacheco averaged five targets per game. Huge, huge jump. Okay, then McKinnon missed most of the playoffs. He played in the Super Bowl
Starting point is 00:28:01 and didn't really get that much work. They don't have McKinnon right now. You talk about that third down roll. I mean, I think that is the key for Isaiah Pacheco because he had a good year last year, but he didn't finish in the top 12. He was 14th in full PPR per game. He was 15th in half PPR. They haven't had, you talk about the history of Bills running backs.
Starting point is 00:28:21 The Chiefs haven't had a true stud fantasy running back since Kareem Hunt. Right. True. You know, they get really tricky around the goal line and don't always. I mean, OK. Sorry. Last six seasons with Mahomes, they've never had more than 13 total running back rushing touchdowns. Not for a single running back, but running back rushing touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:28:44 They've never had more than 13 in the Mahomes era. Three of the last four years, they've had eight to 10. So this hasn't been a great spot for touchdowns for Chiefs running backs. But it did feel like second half of the year, Pacheco took on a role that no running back has really had since Kareem Hunt. Does that continue?
Starting point is 00:29:05 It's kind of like James Cook, man. These guys both had huge second halves. Does that continue for Pacheco? And I have major questions about the passing game because he played, I think, five snaps on third down when Jarek McKinnon was healthy. I think they might want a third down running back, and I don't know that they want it to be Pacheco. So I have some doubts about that. And I actually think that he's got some, not bust potential. He feels kind of safe. Like he's not going to be terrible.
Starting point is 00:29:31 You can't start him. But remember he had, he took over. I'm sorry. I did about 90 minutes of research on Pacheco. So I have a lot I'm spewing out from this morning. Pacheco took over in week 10 of his rookie season, 2022. He had a stretch from mid-season 22 to mid-season 2023 of, I think, 21 games.
Starting point is 00:29:54 And he scored more than 16.2 PPR fantasy points in one game in 21. And then he went nuts after that so if he doesn't have that passing role i think you could be looking at like a 14 point per game kind of guy which is fine but certainly not around to pick i hope that made just to go over their depth chart here's who they have and you tell me jamie you can tell me if they could be the passing down sky the first one is the one that might have the best shot clyde edwards zeller yeah and he did play more on third down then pacheco when mckinnon was out but it was it was more even it wasn't like all clyde they were both there but clyde and so then pacheco that's what i would expect this year if they don't bring back mckon, if they don't
Starting point is 00:30:45 add another passing, that's back everybody else. Dineric Prince. I don't think he's, I don't know if he's played a snap in the NFL. Keontae Ingram isn't a passing down to running back. Rezamit is a rugby player, uh, undrafted rookies, Imani Bailey, Carson Steele. I'd be shocked if they ended up in that big of a role right away in Kansas City's offense where they've got to protect Patrick Mahomes. I think this is setting up very nicely for Isaiah Pacheco to be in line for his best year ever. Second round pick ahead of Jacobs. There it is. Okay.
Starting point is 00:31:17 Do you take, you know, Olave, Waddle, London, Adams ahead of Pacheco? For me, it's Pacheco ahead of Adams. I've got Pacheco ahead of them all because I've got fewer questions about him for now compared to those wide receivers. I'm going to Rashad White here. Rashad White is next up on the list. We've got, excuse me, James Cook and Isaiah Pacheco.
Starting point is 00:31:45 I know there's a lot of stats there. I hope I tried my best to clear it up. I hope that was helpful. Anyway, Rashad White, he was RB 15 per game in non-PPR, 13 per game in half, 10th per game in full PPR. Overall, he was his number four in full PPR, but 10th per game. And remember, he had a really bad start.
Starting point is 00:32:04 He had a tough schedule, scored 13 or more PPR fantasy points in 12 of his last 14 games, including the postseason, and 15.9 or more in 10 of those 14 games. So terrific finish for Rashad White. It was Dan, once Dan fixed him. That's right. No, it took a little bit longer than that, but Dan certainly inspired him.
Starting point is 00:32:21 Dan, Dave, pros and cons for uh for rashad white the pros are that he's basically in every down back for tampa and the bucks seemingly have painted themselves into a corner with him because the only addition that they made at running back is with bucky irving in the draft and bucky irving is a fast running back and can do things i think he can do things in the past game i gotta double to double check it, but his body profiles as such. Yeah. So I wonder if he's going to take some work off of Rashad White's plate, but I just think that he's, I think the Bucks have no choice,
Starting point is 00:32:56 but to go with him again. He was very effective. Average 4.4 targets per game in his last 12 games. Average 17.9 PPR points per game in those games. So he's got potential to blow away 15 PPR points. This is another guy that I probably should have ranked ahead of Josh Jacobs based on that. Stop, stop talking yourself out of your Jacobs conviction. No, I'm still going to take Jacobs in round two. I just found two other running backs that I like a little bit more because of the upside that they provide. Listen, part
Starting point is 00:33:27 of the reason why I really like Jacobs was because he had a year where he had a bunch of games with 15 plus touches and he averaged 20 PPR points per game. I am telling you that I think that's going to be hard for him to do. I think he's going to be right in that range of like 16. Here are two running backs that we're talking about who have displayed that when given the opportunity to be a feature back for their teams can get you over 17. Yeah. Check.
Starting point is 00:33:50 I'll get you freaking 19, 19. So I'm, I'm, I'm excited. I'm more excited about those running backs and Jacobs just by a little. The problem for white is the thing that makes him great in fantasy is his receiving.
Starting point is 00:34:03 And does Bucky Irving take that away from him? Because they want to use him more strictly as a running back in the traditional role than they have been. And if that's the case, then he's going to struggle. Because you've noted this time and time again, Adam, whether it's schedule, whether it's offensive line problems, he just hasn't shown or proven to be an elite level runner. Now, can he do that this year? Sure. There's potential that he gets more experience and understands that, and that's his role.
Starting point is 00:34:31 But if he's going to dip below 50 receptions, which has been the case for two years, I'm going to be a little concerned. And that's the Bucky Irving edition. So, you know, we've, we've talked about this since the NFL draft and, you know, we, we all kind of get enamored too much with these third round rookies and fourth round rookies and, you know, Oh, they have opportunities and they're an injury away and blah, blah, blah. And that's really the case. But, you know, I think what we've heard from this coaching staff without Dave Canales is how much they like Rashad White. And that's what I keep coming back to is that I think they're still going to make him that guy and keep him in the passing game and allow him to be Baker Mayfield's guy. Cause that's one thing
Starting point is 00:35:15 about Baker Mayfield that's been underrated. He did it in Carolina. He did in Cleveland. He certainly did in Tampa Bay. He throws to his running backs backs you know and and he's he's a very good asset to his running backs in that case now granted he had Christian McCaffrey in the stretch with with Carolina and he's had Rashad White who's been very good at doing this but if if Bucky Irving comes in and takes that role from him in whatever capacity it's going to be tough to justify taking him around too so and let's just put a bow on the Bucky Irving talk. And we saw the Bucks last year. They tried to get Chase Edmonds involved.
Starting point is 00:35:49 They tried to get Sean Tucker involved. Neither of those guys could really step up and do what the coaching staff wanted them to do. Irving at Oregon last year, 56 catches the year before 31 catches. So that's 87 catches. His last two seasons averaged over eight yards per catch with five touchdowns in those two seasons. That's on top of him being a thousand yard rusher. Each of those past two seasons, he scored 11 touchdowns for Oregon last year. He's a lean
Starting point is 00:36:15 back. He's one 90 he's short, but he can catch. And so this is someone who I think is, is a little bit more of a legitimate threat to take away work in the passing game than someone like Marshawn Lloyd, who hasn't really done that in college and would have to take a gigantic step in order to do that in green Bay. To that being said, I still think that there will be downs and distances where the bucks are going to count on Rashad white to catch the ball out of the backfield more so than Bucky Irving Irving has to earn it. Just the fact that he did in college is nice. That tells you that his learning curve won't be quite as high. But I still think Rashad White's
Starting point is 00:36:48 going to get a lot of work. Well, I'm less concerned about Rashad White losing his role in the passing game than I am in the running game because Rashad White is great in the passing game. Even if Bucky Irving does have 87 catches in his last two years, remember, that was an offense with a super
Starting point is 00:37:04 low ADOT. I think they threw the ball a lot, and Bo Nix set a record for completion percentage because he just threw short all the time. But Rashad White doesn't drop the ball. He catches almost every target he gets. He's really good there. He can make plays in the passing game. Simply put, you have a hard time convincing me that he hasn't been one of the most inefficient, maybe worst running backs in football since entering the league. 3.6 and 3.7 yards per carry. Even for someone who highlights yards per carry a lot, I mean, that is really, really bad.
Starting point is 00:37:34 He makes almost no big plays in the running game. So at some point, if he doesn't get it going, remember, they did draft a center in round one, Graham Barton, so that could help. They've had a bad offensive line. May not be his fault. I don't pretend that yards per carry is all on the running back, but he's
Starting point is 00:37:49 one of the worst. He's like bottom seven or something in yards per carry over the last two seasons for 72 running backs who have 100 or more carries. That's the concern with Rashad White. He may not be that good. If he had the line two years ago, three years ago at this point,
Starting point is 00:38:07 you know, Brady's first year there, second year there. You know, when... Center. Yeah, I mean, when they were healthy. And then last year they were injured and banged up. And so that's why they made fixing their offensive line a priority this offseason. So, if he can get... Look, if you're right, Adam,
Starting point is 00:38:25 that he stays as the primary pass catcher to this level, and I don't know if he has to be north of 60 catches, but for me it's north of 50. But if he stays north of 50 and could be a four yards per carry kind of guy while still getting this workload, he's going to be an absolute stud. Yeah, but four yards per carry is like a way he hasn't even been close. He had 272 carries last year. Three of them were longer than 16, 16 yards.
Starting point is 00:38:49 That is so bad. So, you know, that's just you remember, there are guys that lose their job that we don't expect because they're just not effective enough. And I do think we have to put Rashad White in that boat. It's possible. It's possible. He just does not run well enough. And and he loses work.
Starting point is 00:39:06 Like Damian Pierce. We didn't expect it. We never thought Devin Singletary would be Miles Sanders. Damian Pierce was a coaching change, though. Miles Sanders, too. Yes, I know. I get it. But they were so bad that they had to be removed from that role.
Starting point is 00:39:20 And I fear that. I don't think from what the coaches have said, they don't feel that way about White at all. And the off season doesn't suggest that. Right. Bowles has been absolutely. The coaches said everything right about Miles Sanders. As a matter of fact, is he just Rashad White's production?
Starting point is 00:39:38 That was, again, switching teams and they fired the coach. Yeah, but what is Todd Bowles going to say about Rashad White? Like, obviously he's going to praise him the but the personnel says the same thing though agreed their actions this offseason says it they didn't get in on any free agent signing and they drafted a guy in round four with a pass catching and the Panthers spent big money on Miles Sanders and had Chuba Hubbard as their backup but at the end of the day, Sanders was so bad, they had no choice but to make that switch. And I feel the same way about the Texans. Damian Pierce played his way out of that job. We're talking pros and cons here. But they also added a veteran
Starting point is 00:40:16 to come in and be ready to go because they knew that Pierce would have a hard time. On a one-year deal. No, they were giving Pierce every opportunity there. And I'm just saying, I think if you're going to take Rashad White with a top 30 pick or something like that, you have to be aware that, at least in my opinion, he's been terrible. I don't like the Damian Pierce comparison at all because they switched schemes. They changed coaching staffs. I mean, everything was just, he wasn't a fit for what Bobby Sloak wanted to do. But Damian Pierce at least was good. I'm just saying, Rashad White has not been a good rusher.
Starting point is 00:40:48 Rashad, I mean, I'm going to tell you what Todd Bowles said, which, you know, I think is the more relevant thing here. He didn't say
Starting point is 00:40:54 he's a great runner. He said he's a great weapon for us. Yeah. And that's, I think, what factors in. That's why I said
Starting point is 00:40:59 I'm more concerned about him losing carries than catches. But I don't think Bucky Irving is the guy to take him out of that role. I think if Irving's going to take him out ofucky Irving is the guy to take him out of that role. I think if Irving's going to take him out of a role, it's going to take him out of a role as a pass catcher.
Starting point is 00:41:08 Yeah, I mean, that thought will change if Bucky Irving is like the talk of training camp in town. Say that ten times faster. People are saying that I'm losing this battle. I just... It's not a battle to win or lose. You're giving your opinion. No, I just don't think it's a good example to go
Starting point is 00:41:24 Damian Pierce. Look, it's not a battle to win or lose. You're giving your opinion. I just don't think it's a good example to go Damian Pierce. I do think it's a good, you could go anywhere. Look, it's not that the situations are the same. It's that it's the overall thing. Ineffective running backs could lose their job. You have to be aware of that.
Starting point is 00:41:35 I don't have that fear at all with James Cook or Isaiah Pacheco. Those guys are really good running back. I don't have that concern with Rashad White though. Okay. But I just think that when you're talking about those three guys who are back-to-back-to-back in the consensus rankings, when you're talking about Devon Achan, who gets drafted here, the only one that I'm worried about being under four yards per carry
Starting point is 00:41:55 is Rashad White, and he hasn't even been close to four yards per carry. I mean, 3.6, 3.7 yards per carry is absolutely terrible. So I just think that when you're comparing him to these rushers, Cook and Pacheco, I think their primary appeal and HN2 is that they're really, really good. They make guys miss. They make big plays. They're awesome. I cannot say that about Rashad White, the rusher. The receiver, yeah, he's really good there. But I think it's fair to criticize him for this. I'm sorry. I'm not trying to be too negative. It is, but you also made, I think, a big point in your argument here. How much of that is on him and how much of that is on the offensive line?
Starting point is 00:42:32 That's fine. That's, I think, what matters in the minds of the coaching staff. They may think his 3.7 could have been 3.2. Well, yeah, but the lack of big plays, though, I think is also on him. Yeah, no no it's it's it's certainly worth bringing up that that's 100 relevant but i think to say damian pierce is a comp based on what happened to him last year and miles sanders you know switching teams one team switching coaching staff switching scheme like that i think is it's tough to compare those two
Starting point is 00:43:00 no i'm not the situations are different and look you could even counter and say, OK, Canales is gone. It's a new coordinator. So that might impact Rashad White in a negative way, too. Yeah, but it's a similar type of. No, I agree. But I'm just saying, like, if he wants to make that as a point, it's the point. The broader point is ineffective running backs could lose their jobs. And I am worried about him being ineffective. Maybe people aren't, but I'm just bringing it up. He has not been an effective running back.
Starting point is 00:43:24 OK, I'm sorry. We got to running back. Okay, I'm sorry. We got to take a break here. Don't be sorry. It's going to be a long show. It's good stuff. Yeah, but it's not my show. I don't want to hog the mic, but. No, it's your show too.
Starting point is 00:43:34 Well, all right. We're going to take a break. We'll get to Josh Jacobs and the other guys after this. Metro links and cross links are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so.
Starting point is 00:44:02 Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. because you look the same and whatever the heck red light therapy is. It's definitely not that. Don't overthink how you hydrate. Life's full of choices. Smart water is a simple one. All right, pros and cons for Josh Jacobs. Do we need to go through this or did the earlier session suffice on Jacobs? I'm good with what i said
Starting point is 00:44:46 okay so dave's higher on him than jamie is so let's go to joe mixon here if you want to hear more about josh jacobs just rewind to basically the beginning of the show uh let's go to joe mixon he'll be 28 years old in july jamie what are the pros and cons for mixon i think he's going to a better situation and you, that says a lot because the situation in Cincinnati has been very good for him. But, you know, this is an offense that has a chance to be amazing.
Starting point is 00:45:11 You know, if everything clicks, clearly CJ Stroud's on the rise. You know, the receiving core should be better. Should have an opportunity to score more points. I think he'll still be involved in the passing game. The negative is that Joe Mixon is, you Mixon was kicked to the curb for a reason, not just salary-related, and that he might not be the best version of Joe Mixon at this point in his career.
Starting point is 00:45:31 So I'm excited about the scenario for him, but I'm cautiously optimistic. I don't want to go too far all in on Mixon. I kind of feel similar to him than I feel about Josh Jacobs, except with Mixon, I don't view Damian Pierce as competition. I know you do, Adam, just based on something that you sent me in regards to our magazine about what D'Amico Ryan said about a one-two punch. I think Mixon's going to dominate touches there, which is the plus for him. Not that I don't think Jacobs will also, but I think Mixon's, for me,
Starting point is 00:46:01 a little bit safer. They acquired him for peanuts, and then they gave him a contract extension. So they better do it. Uh, what I like about Mixon is that he's averaged at least 15 PPR points every year since 2020 in Cincinnati. And now he's going to an offense that they've turned it around so much and the offensive line should be strong. We know that the receiving core is awesome. I. And I'm not convinced that this offense is going to become like one of the past heaviest in the league. They'll be up there. They have to be. They've got Stroud and they've got these receivers.
Starting point is 00:46:34 But Mixon can be a little bit of a part of that on first and second downs. But he's also going to be able to benefit from so many pass catchers out there. You know, kind of like what I talked about with Pacheco. Safeties aren't going to be lurking down near the line of scrimmage very often. And I think Mixon is still good enough to get a good rushing average. Not a great one, but a good one, be it eight in the box or not. And on top of that, plenty of touchdown opportunities, plenty of total yard opportunities.
Starting point is 00:46:59 Just, I think he's in a really good spot. You could squeeze one more year of 15 plus PPR out of Joe Mixon. You know, I think Josh Jacobs has one season in his career where he's finished in the top 12 per game. It was 2022 when he was third. I said earlier, he's been top 17 per game every year. He's been top 15 per game almost every year. But I think only one top 12 per game in full PPR for Jacobs. Mixon, on the other hand, has been top 12 per game in five of the last six seasons in both half and full PPR. And he was top eight per game in 2021 and 2022. So that's the pro
Starting point is 00:47:35 with him. He gives you a lot of consistency and probably getting an offensive line upgrade. If you look at ESPN's ratings of run block win rate and you look at PFF last year, their run block grades, Houston was not an upgrade over last year's Bengals team, but their right tackle missed 10 games. Their left tackle missed some time. So they have some young talent on that line. So we're thinking probably an offensive line upgrade.
Starting point is 00:48:04 Will he be the third down back? That's a con I have listed here. I don't know if he will. Will Houston throw to their running backs? They didn't really do that much at all last year. And he's going to be 28 years old. And he's been kind of
Starting point is 00:48:15 a pedestrian running back. But Jamie, I'm not really worried about Pierce like being a true one-two punch. But I'm worried about him getting maybe like 80 to 100 carries or something like that. I don't know enough to be annoying, I guess. I think that number's high. If mixing is healthy,
Starting point is 00:48:32 it could, it could be, he's certainly got to look if, if Pierce is as bad as he was last year, he's not getting 80 carries. He just wasn't about 85 carries over the season. He wasn't a good fit for the scheme. And so, you know, will a year in it and another offseason help? Hopefully. I mean, look, you know, I think Pierce has an opportunity to still be productive in this league and be productive on this team. But, you know, it was a disaster last year for him. And so, you know, this is kind of the hope for Joe Mixon.
Starting point is 00:49:02 And, you know, you can debate the effectiveness of him as a running back, but Devin Singletary was a very good fantasy asset on this team, and I think Joe Mixon's a better player. So I'm hoping that what he does in now an offense that improves from what Singletary was doing last year should give Mixon another chance to be a top 10, top 12, if you want to knock him down a peg or two from his age, for this season,
Starting point is 00:49:29 which is why I keep getting more and more excited about him. So I like the setup. I like the scenario. Like Dave said, they paid him. There's, in my opinion, not a lot of competition for touches. And so as long as he stays healthy, I think he's going to have a big year. Is he safer than Rashad White? Is Joe Mixon safer than White or Jacobs?
Starting point is 00:49:45 I think if you come out on the side of White still involved in the passing game, I'll take White. If you come out on the side of White not being as involved in the passing game, then I'll take Mixon.
Starting point is 00:49:53 Okay. Let's go to Derek Henry. Dave, why don't you give pros and cons for Henry? The guy's a machine. Scores touchdowns like crazy. Last year was one of his worst years yet. It was fairly easy to predict from game to game.
Starting point is 00:50:09 He was game script dependent and he averaged 14.8 PPR points per game. But if we do a little bit of azure statting, we go over just the 13 games, 13 out of 17, where he had at least 14 touches. And remember, he doesn't catch the ball much 14 or more touches, 17.9 PPR points per game, 13 touchdowns, seven games with 100 total yards, another two between 95 and 99 total yards.
Starting point is 00:50:34 That was on a Tennessee offense that was awful. The offensive line was brutal. The quarterback play was gross pretty much every single game. Now he's going to Baltimore. Always a competitive offensive line there, a quarterback in Lamar Jackson that defenses have to reckon with every single week. And now he's the running back in that backfield without a lot of competition because Keaton Mitchell is still coming back from his ACL. They'll be ready. They've moved on from Dobbins. They've moved on from Gus Edwards. They drafted Rasheed Ali. I don't know how big of a role he'll have. And I'm not saying that Derek Henry's going
Starting point is 00:51:09 to get every role, but he's, or every carry, but he's going to get all the important ones. And this is a team that loves to score from short yardage. Henry's going to be their answer there. He's going to be their answer when they're killing the clock. I think he's absolutely going to be in line to have a bounce back here. better than 14.8 ppr points per game probably worth penciling in in that 16 range even in full ppr which means that he's basically 15 and a half and non-ppr anything that did you do cons there or just pros he's 29 years old 30 right and he doesn't catch a ton of passes. There you go. He's 30. And that is it, right? I mean, is it that simple?
Starting point is 00:51:49 He's 30 and doesn't catch passes. It really is. You know, and we spent a lot of time on this last year. You know, wins versus losses. Well, the Ravens win a lot of games, you know, and so he should get an opportunity to have a game script in his favor. Dave mentioned, you know, the offense, really the offensive line. He's 30. By comparison, night and day, you know, and so to what he's going to and the team he's going to.
Starting point is 00:52:11 I mean, imagine if Greg Roman was still the office coordinator in Baltimore. My God. But, you know, Henry is going to, you know, dominate carries. And really, if he avoids injury, this I mean, I don't think 2,000 yards is on the table because of Lamar Jackson, who just gets 800 yards rolling out of bed every time he's been healthy. Derrick Henry's going to be 1,500-plus rushing yards. And, I mean, Gus Edwards scored 13 rushing touchdowns in this offense. Derrick Henry could get 18 to 20.
Starting point is 00:52:40 So, to me, he's an easy round two pick. I guess the one running back in this backfield that could take him off the field is Justice Hill, who for whatever reason, this coaching staff really liked him last year. He can play all three downs, but I'd be shocked if he had five touches a game. I think Derrick Henry is going to get a lot of work here. A lot of work. Maybe in blowouts, he won't get quite as many. When it's 56-19, you won't see Derrick Henry on the field. But when it's
Starting point is 00:53:09 31-19, he'll be there. He'll be the reason why they have 31. So this is the last guy we're going to talk about today. And we have a best ball show tomorrow, but that won't take the full time. So we'll probably finish up on this topic tomorrow. Tomorrow we'll do Kamara, A-Chan, and Ken Walker. But to say that Henry is an easy second-round pick,
Starting point is 00:53:28 it's interesting to me because I know you like to fade the older guys, Jamie. The situation is just too good. I know, but if we remove the running backs, right, and if you're on the clock and you've got Jalen Waddell, Chris Olave, Drake London, these third- and fourth-year guys going into their prime versus a 30-year-old with over 2,000 career carries who's going to have maybe 70 to 80 fewer catches. That might be a lot than those guys.
Starting point is 00:53:54 How do you take Derrick Henry, or would you take Derrick Henry over those guys? No, I like the receivers better. I guess he's not an easy round to pick. I think I have him ranked 26th or 27th, so I shouldn't say he's an easy round to pick. But he's in this mix. I mean, again, it's hard to overlook his lack of role in the passing game,
Starting point is 00:54:11 but for him, it's kind of been something that he's done his entire career. And so, you know, give me a number of games for Henry. 17. 16, 17. He's a workhorse. He's a horse. I mean, that's 2,000 total yards and 18 touchdowns. No way.
Starting point is 00:54:27 No way. I think he can rush for 1,800 yards. All right. Let me just. Isn't it so possible that we're going, hey, what lessons did we learn in the 2024 season, right? This is like January of 25. We're like, never, ever draft a 30-year-old running back, you know, with 2,000 carries. You can't really compare him to Mostert.
Starting point is 00:54:51 The thing is, like, you can look at Henry and kind of see a decline. He hasn't been as good the last couple of years. Still good. And he's 30, but he has 2,030 carries. He's just a freak of nature, though. And all the greats who've played running back in the NFL have managed to do well after 30. But have they had? Really? Almost all of them. Have they had this many carries?
Starting point is 00:55:22 Yes. Okay. Listen, there's a decline. I don't expect him to average five yards a carry. I don't think that he'll have that same, you know, like Gus Edwards had five yards for carry for a bunch of seasons. I don't think he'll have that hyper efficiency just because he's playing with Lamar.
Starting point is 00:55:39 Maybe he does. That would surprise me. But I think he's, I think he's in line to have a very good year, worthy of a round two, three turn pick. That's going to be where he goes in full PPR. He's a round one pick in non-PPR. I think he's the easiest one of this group to analyze
Starting point is 00:55:57 because you kind of know. The only thing is, is he going to fade? Is he going to start fading? Is he going to start playing worse and not really being that good and also baltimore has three new offensive linemen like we talk a lot about their offensive line as if it's a given well they've got a pretty new group this year you you trust them to be good they're just baltimore and jackson's gonna create a lot of opportunities but you know you don't have to oh how many catches you're gonna get what kind of role is he gonna get like it's not like cook it's not like pache don't have to, oh, how many catches is he going to get? What kind of role is he going to get? It's not like Cook.
Starting point is 00:56:25 It's not like Pacheco. I don't have to worry about the McKinnon factor. 25 catches in 17 games? Probably right around there, right? But we know what the situation is. It's just the question is it going to be
Starting point is 00:56:38 Derek Henry or Father Time? Who's going to win, right? Is it pretty much that simple? Well, I mean, Father Time is undefeated, so that's clearly a knock against him. But is this the that simple. I mean, father time is undefeated. So that's, that's a clearly a knock against him. But is this the, is this the year? Right.
Starting point is 00:56:48 Is this the year? That's, that's it. That's all it is. Right. I mean, he's not, he's, he's not, I've drafted Henry once. It's, it's the league that we're playing out. It's our magazine league. And to me, it was an easy pick.
Starting point is 00:56:59 It was round three, middle of round three. I started with Justin Jefferson and Chris Olave. So it was very, very simple for me to take Derek Henry. Now this is a three receiver PPR league and my two running backs are Derek Henry and Najee Harris. So I'm not exactly counting on my running backs to lead the way from a reception total. But I'm only starting two running backs. I've got four receivers that are going to, I have five receivers that I can rotate in for four spots. So I'm not worried about what Derek Henry's reception totals are,
Starting point is 00:57:26 but you get it around three. You should be fairly safe. By the way, we can end on this. You're looking for the comp for Rashad white. Najee Harris has played 17 games every single year. He's gone from 307 to 272 to who? 255 carries.
Starting point is 00:57:42 He has a good running mate. I don't know that that exists in Tampa Bay, but that would be more of the comp. It's like Harris just wasn't good enough to justify all those carries. But again, the counter to that would be Rashad White went from 50 catches to 64. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:02 Year one to year two. That's why you're drafting Rashad White. No, I understand and Najee hasn't been replaced yet he hasn't but Jalen Warren has cut into his work because Harris just isn't as good as Jalen Warren alright so we have talked about
Starting point is 00:58:18 James Cook, Pacheco Rashad White, Josh Jacobs Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry six running backs. We'll finish the show. How do you rank them? The names again? They are Cook, Pacheco, White, Jacobs, Mixon, Henry.
Starting point is 00:58:40 Okay. I've got Pacheco at the top. Oh, go ahead, Jamie. Cook, Pacheco white oh go ahead james cook pacheco white uh henry mixin jacobs after all the changes i made today i've got pacheco white jacobs henry cook mixin and i've got a couple of guys between cook and mixin i don't understand why it is so hard for these two people in this chat to understand the point I am making about Rashad White. I hope everyone else is clear. Obviously, I'm
Starting point is 00:59:09 drafting him ahead of Najee Harris. Duh. Ah, forget it. All right. That's it for us. And Dynasty's coming up right now. Hopefully, Heath will talk about that blockbuster. You know, I'm going to ask Heath if I can come on the show and talk about our big blockbuster trade. You don't have to ask Heath if I can come on the show. And talk about our big blockbuster trade.
Starting point is 00:59:26 You don't have to ask Heath. You can just get the link from ShadyT. Okay. Send him the link and he'll just like dive bomb the show. And everyone's in on it but Heath. Okay. See y'all. I love you all.
Starting point is 00:59:40 Chat. I love you all. Until tomorrow. Best ball. And we'll finish this discussion with Kamara, A-Chan, and Ken Walker. See ya.

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