Fantasy Football Today - Running Back Breakouts! Great Rookies, Chase Brown, Ken Walker and More (08/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 The first season of Georgie and Mandy is a bona fide hit. Be cool. Okay, we don't say it out loud. Hmm, okay. Can we just say it's great? Thank you for saying that, Elway. With lots and lots of laughs. So everybody knows? I only told Mandy.

Starting point is 00:00:14 Well, I only told Mom and Dad. That's everybody. So, quick summary. Laugh at Georgie and Mandy's first marriage, with all episodes now streaming on Paramount Plus and returning new CBS fall. Yes, yes. Also yes.

Starting point is 00:00:30 This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Breakout running backs.

Starting point is 00:00:52 Right now on Fantasy Football Today, presented by BetMGM, the sports book born in Vegas. We've got names in rounds one through maybe 90s. or 10, all the way from Ashton Genti to Jordan Mason, I would guess is the, no, Tank Bigsby would be the last name on the list if you're just looking at average draft position. Welcome back to Fantasy Football today. Adam Azer, Dave Richard Heath Cummings, and J.J. Zacharias is here to talk running backs. Are you happy with the position you got? You know, you got one of the glamour positions. Good stuff. Yeah, I mean, this is the position that is the driving force

Starting point is 00:01:25 in fantasy football. So, yeah, I feel good about it. I feel like wide receiver has overtaken running back in terms of it. I'm trying to feel better about myself. Wide receiver, like, had it, tried to, made a really strong push, probably still does in the best ball world and in industry talk. But I think JJ's right. Running back still drives fantasy football. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:01:45 And CBS drafts are getting very running back heavy at the top, maybe more so, like, not necessarily the first two rounds, but after that. Before we go any further, JJ, why don't you just tell us, you know, how our audience can follow you and all that good stuff? Yeah. You know, I'm on Twitter at late round QB, late round.com. You can find all my stuff. I have a draft guide out there right now.

Starting point is 00:02:04 It's pretty game theory driven. It's not just total player takes and analysis. And then I have my podcast, the late round fantasy football podcast. Awesome. All right. So Dave gave me, everybody's got a list.

Starting point is 00:02:16 But the first two names on the list at Running Back that I wanted to talk about were Chase Brown and Bucky Irving. I almost feel like, what could go wrong for these guys? But, you know, sometimes things go wrong with these unproved players who were day three picks. So, Dave, why are you so convinced that Chase Brown and Bucky Irving are going to break out and basically do for a full season what they did for a half season?

Starting point is 00:02:38 Right. And that's the whole point is that there were portions, certainly in the early part of last year, where neither guy was really great for fantasy. And then they got their opportunities and they took off. So if you were alive and awake in 2024, you already know what these guys can do. And it's just a matter of whether or not they can keep it going over the span of 18 weeks, 17 games, just to lay it out there, from week 6 through 17, Chase Brown, 18 ppr points per game, 21.1 touches per game. If you want that to be even better looking, from week 9 through week 17, he played 80 plus percent of the snaps in every game, 23.6 touches per game, 20.6 ppr points, even 15.9

Starting point is 00:03:22 non-PPR points for Chase Brown. I don't think there's going to be a lot of competition for touches. in that backfield, he will lose some work to P. Ryan on third downs, but this is an awesome Bengals offense. He's probably never going to see it in the box because of the receivers that they have. I think he's a good pick in round two, much less round three. Bucky, we know it from last year from week six on, 12 games, 16.9 ppr points per game. He had 18.1, making that number look better in his final league games, including the postseason, only three games all year where he played at least 60% of the snaps.

Starting point is 00:03:58 And so an argument that I was making earlier in the offseason was that Bucky has more room to develop and put up better numbers because he could earn more playing time. But it does sound like Tampa wants to use as many as three running backs. I watched them practice. Bucky was getting a lot of work with the ones, as you would expect. And he was catching short passes from Baker. He looks great too. These are both running backs. I'm totally fine taking in the second round.

Starting point is 00:04:23 If you get him in the third round, I feel like you're stealing a little bit from your league. does anyone have an issue with bucky herving or chase brown in round two let's move yeah i've got brown at 25th but not no issue really yeah i mean i'm i'm i'm on chase brown over jonathan taylor this year like i i in a full ppr type environment where if anthony richardson starting you know for j t and last season with with anthony richardson he had a five percent target share per game uh you know there there is not that receiving upset like we have with Chase Brown. And there's already been chatter out of Cincinnati saying that they want to use Chase Brown more, even more as a receiver this year and as sort of a safety valve

Starting point is 00:05:05 for Joe Burrow. And we know how weak that offensive line is, which sure could go badly for the run game, but at the same time, it could allow for some more dump-offs and some more receiving work for Brown. What format are you taking Chase Brown over Jonathan Taylor? I'd take them over them in both half and full, realistically. I mean, again, like, obviously Jonathan Taylor has that single game upside. I think though from a week to week standpoint and just from that floor perspective, I'm just going to feel better about the Cincinnati offense. And yes, Jonathan Taylor is a better pure runner. There's no doubt. I just don't know if we're going to see that receiving work for him. Not only that, they added Tyler Warren to the mix this

Starting point is 00:05:42 year. You know, there's, there's even more competition for targets out of that on that team. So it's just, it's tough for me to really click that button, you know, over, over Chase. No, I'm worried that I'm getting too excited about Chase Brown because I think back in February we started doing mock drafts and I was thinking Chase Brown you know felt like a maybe even a first round pick for me I was so excited about him then you know I cooled down but they did nothing in the NFL draft really okay they got Taj Brooks I don't think that's really a huge deal but then you got their offensive coordinator Dan pitcher saying he's going to become a household name and I'm just starting to think that Chase Brown should go like right after

Starting point is 00:06:16 Derek Henry in the early part of the second round right where Pooka Naku right well maybe Puka but Nico Collins and Brian Thomas Jr. I'm thinking I should take him ahead of A.J. Brown at this point. He's the best Brown last name-wise or team. What about him on Ra? No, that's a saint-brown. That's the same. No, you know what?

Starting point is 00:06:38 Honestly, that's how I feel about Chase Brown. I feel like he's in that mix with those guys. But am I crazy? Am I too excited? No. I don't think it's insane. No, I mean, I would still be going forth. Like, I still think like the Niko.

Starting point is 00:06:52 of the world and the Drake London's of the world have wide receiver one overall this season upside. And so I'd rather go that direction. But, you know, once you start getting out of that tier, I think it's more than reasonable to go after Chase. If I was going to be the, and I'm not anti-Chace Brown. I've got him 25th. And so like, I think he's going to be awesome. If I was going to go the negative route, I would just say like day three pick that kind of at least came out of nowhere last year. And best attribute was plays all the snaps, has all the volume, has been the type of player that has really, really disappointed us in the past. I'm not saying he's going to, but if you're putting together the type of running back that has really disappointed

Starting point is 00:07:38 us, that that's the guy. Sure, sure. For the record, definitely taking Nico Collins over Chase Brown. All right, let's see. So we like Chase Brown. We like Bucking. Ken Walker was a guy that Dave said was on his list, but JJ also on your list. Ken Walker, when would you take Ken Walker? Yeah, I mean, I think that he's like right outside the top 12 or maybe even, you know, like in the RB 13, RB14 range for me. I love the fit with Clint Kubiak. He's going to bring that outside zone scheme to Seattle. If you look last season, New Orleans ran the second most runs to the outside in that scheme. They ran, sorry, at the second highest rate in the league. Kenneth Walker is perfect for this kind of offense where he's a one cut runner.

Starting point is 00:08:23 He can just hit these home runs. And that's exactly what we're going to get a lot of in this offense. The biggest question mark, two things I think are a big deal with Walker. One is obviously health, right? If he can't stay healthy, then we're obviously not going to feel as bullish on him. But the other thing is last season was the first year that we really saw him deployed and used as a receiver in the NFL. And even in college, he wasn't used much as a pass catcher.

Starting point is 00:08:46 but last year he had a 14.4% target share per game rate, which was basically double his other two seasons in the NFL. And so you do have to question a little bit, if he's going to be able to maintain, I mean, I don't think he's going to be able to maintain that high of a target share and last season in that Ryan Grubb offense. They were really pass heavy. I mean, it was a very pass friendly scheme from a volume perspective. And so, you know, my my sort of pushback, if I were to argue with myself here and say, you know, can Kenneth Walker maintain a high target share? it would be look at this offense and you know at the end of the day there is only a 100% target share pie to go around in the offense and there aren't many established pass catchers in that offense right now and so there does seem to be a pretty good outlet in lane for him to get that 10 11 maybe 12% target share if things break right I don't think we're going to see what we saw last year but even still I think he's going to be able to make up for it given this zone scheme he's going to be running in okay I think everyone the three of you feel pretty good about ken Walker in the third round, right?

Starting point is 00:09:47 Yes. Yeah, I'm in on him in round three. And it requires two picks if you really want to feel good about it by getting Charbonnet in round nine if you wanted to safeguard the pick. And we've seen Charbonnet play very well in place of Kenneth Walker. So you've got to be, you have to at least think about making that commitment. I know that there are some people who wouldn't even touch that idea, but I would do something like that knowing that Kenneth Walker, A, isn't a lot to make it for 17 games.

Starting point is 00:10:14 and B, already has a foot injury that kept him sideline for a little bit this training camp. Okay, Heath, we'll go dance around a little bit here. We'll go to one of Heath's breakout running backs. So not super familiar with this guy. Ashton Jeanty, Jeanty, tell me about this. This is not the sleeper's episode. Don't give me any grief because he's being drafted too high because he's not being drafted high enough. I think he fell to round two of our draft today.

Starting point is 00:10:41 He's a top seven pick for me. I expect him to immediately enter the NFL as one of the best rushers in the NFL. I've got him projected for about 1,700 total yards and 12 touchdowns. This is going to be a good run offense with Chip Kelly there. Gino Smith actually gives him some threat of the pass, and Ashton Genty is very good. If you're worried about three rush attempts in the preseason, then you don't deserve Ashton Jentie.

Starting point is 00:11:10 he is a top five running back for me and if a running back in his very first year in the NFL is a top five running back and he's not a breakout then I don't know what a breakout is wait a second say that again if a running back in his very first year in the NFL is a top five running back in the NFL I don't know what a breakout is no I think I think that'd be fine

Starting point is 00:11:35 it'd be fine just be okay no I well I'm just saying Some people just think that you can't call a rookie a breakout. That's all. I understand. I am not one of those people. Trying to find the Leonard Fournett stat. Leonard Fournett really didn't have a very good rookie season. He was fine and he still was very good for fantasy. And it's almost

Starting point is 00:11:54 like, that feels like a worst case scenario. I'll see if I can look that up. Hey, real quick, if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, we've got an awesome offer for you. Use the bonus code fantasy on BetMGM and you're going to get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager

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Starting point is 00:12:26 when you sign up. So far we've talked about Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Ken Walker, Ashton Genti. Let's talk about Travion Henderson, JJ, another rookie who's also on Heats breakout lists. I'm sure Dave is excited about Trayvion, Henderson, too, but maybe not, I don't know, maybe not as excited, but, uh, JJ, when would you take Trayvion Henderson? How would you compare him to Ken Walker, who you said is around

Starting point is 00:12:48 RB 13 or so for you. Yeah, I mean, I'd still take Walker over Henderson. I think if you're in a full PPR format, you're taking Henderson. I mean, you can take him mid-RB2 range in that RB18, uh, you know, around there. Um, I'm, I'm super bullish on him as a prospect. Um, you know, I loved him coming out great in pass pro, arguably the best running back in pass pro that we've seen, at least in like recent history, come out. And he had unbelievable, you know, he was a great pass catcher at Ohio State as well, obviously playing amongst some very, very good wide receivers there. But as a freshman at Ohio State, he caught 27 passes, which is not a little amount for a collegiate

Starting point is 00:13:32 running back, but he caught 27 passes in an offense that had Jackson Smith and Jigba, Garrett Wilson, Chris Alave, Marvin Harrison Jr. and a mecca Igbuka. And he was still able to carve out a role and play that pass catching role. We're already seeing him Moss defenders in Patriots camp right now. So I think they're going to go, I mean, there's going to be wheel routes galore in New England this year. And again, going back to sort of what I talked about with, with Kenneth Walker, you got to look at the entire landscape of these offenses to see what kind of target share ceiling a player might be able to hit. And the only guy that we feel relatively confident about seeing decent target share in that offense is Stefan Diggs at this point. He's

Starting point is 00:14:09 obviously, you know, older and coming off at ACL. I love Diggs this year. But, you know, obviously there is some concern and there is a red flag there. And so I think that Trayvion Henderson could realistically walk into not only just that like James White role, but a James White plus in that Josh McDaniel's offense. So I'm pretty excited. Should I take Trayvion Henderson or two of the guys that he played with, Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Garrett Wilson. I mean, I'm pretty low on both the wide receivers. So I mean, I, I think, you know, if you're in like a three wider, it depends on the format, obviously. If you're in a three wide receiver, full PPR, flex kind of league, I probably would still lean the wide receivers. But those are two

Starting point is 00:14:46 wide receivers that I am incredibly nervous about entering 2025. So I think that you could, you know, if we sat here for five minutes, 10 minutes, I could, I could argue both sides. I could argue that Travion said. I would say Travion, and I think the better question might be whose route tree is more diverse this year, Trevion Henderson or Marvin Harrison. I think the answer would be Trevion Henderson. Imagine everybody remembers the James White 90 target seasons, 90 catch seasons. Now, imagine if he was the most explosive player on the offense also. Like, it's so rare that we get a guy that has a really high volume role in the passing game out of the backfield. And he's extremely explosive and there's opportunity for him as the season goes on to earn work on early downs.

Starting point is 00:15:33 I mean, I only haven't projected for like 10 carries a game right now, but Romandre Stevenson does not do the two things that keep veterans on the field over exciting rookies. He does not protect the football. He does not pass protect. Trevion Henderson, I continually feel like I'm too low. I'm the same, which is making me nervous because I see some. issues that keep me from, like, raising them into, like, the top 40 because JJ is absolutely

Starting point is 00:16:04 right. The talent is undeniable. We saw it at Ohio State. We're seeing it now in training camp. I saw it in training camp. He's a very good player. Did you know he's no, he had no fumbles at Ohio State. That was cool. I'll play devil's advocate. Ohio State used Henderson five times on carries inside the five-yard line last year, seven times total in his three years, his last three years at Ohio State. He got banged up his second to last year there, and then they brought in Quinchon Junkins. We know that those two split reps.

Starting point is 00:16:36 He's also not the type of back that Josh McDaniels has used in his offense as the primary ball carrier. Usually that guy is sitting around 220 pounds, guy's physical. I know that Henderson is willing to get physical, but he's much lighter than 220 pounds. also Josh McDaniel's track record of using multiple running backs is pretty consistent only three times and I'm reading this and his 17 full seasons as a play caller three times has a running back average 20 plus touches per game only 10 times as a running back average 15 plus touches per game are could we could we buy into Henderson being so good that Josh McDaniels takes everything that he's ever done and throws it out the window and just puts it all in Henderson's place. Yes, because he did it with Josh Jacobs just a few years ago, when he finally had a true lead running back. That I get.

Starting point is 00:17:29 But the point is he gave the most talented guy on the rally. He didn't mess around. Go ahead, Heath. I just don't think, that probably prevents him from being the number one running back in fantasy football this year. But in terms of him turning in a top 12 season, I don't think it matters at all. He is exactly the type of player in full PPR.

Starting point is 00:17:53 that produces top 12 seasons without touching the ball 15 times again. I got to take a break. I'm going to follow up. We're going to finish on Trayvion Henderson in a moment. Let's take a quick break on FFT and wrap this discussion up because I want to know where do you take him in half PPR? And are we getting too early if we start taking them in the third round? We'll be right back.

Starting point is 00:18:09 The first season of Georgie and Mandy is a bona fide hit. Be cool. Okay, we don't say it out loud. Hmm, okay. Can we just say it's great? Thank you for saying that, Elway. With lots and lots of laughs. So everybody knows?

Starting point is 00:18:22 I only told Mandy. Well, I only told Mom and Dad. That's everybody. So, quick summary, laugh at Georgie and Mandy's first marriage, with all episodes now streaming on Paramount Plus and returning new CBS fall. Yes, yes, also yes. Heath, you are Jesse Spano excited about Travian Henderson.

Starting point is 00:18:45 Sorry, I even have to laugh at that. That was a good joke. So what about in half people? What you said? It was really good. So what about half PPR? I think half PPR, you probably need to cool the Jets a little bit and take him in round five where I think he's currently going in full PPR,

Starting point is 00:19:07 but I've got him early round four in full PPR. I'll go round five and a half. Okay. It would be interesting if he had a better season than everybody that J.J. mentioned on his Ohio State team, J.S.N. Chris Olavay, Marvin Harrison, Jr., Becca, Buch. He's going to be better than at least some of them, but he could. Jay S then is the only one I would dress first before him.

Starting point is 00:19:28 Heath, do you have your projections open for Trayvon? I can say this too about Trayvion and sort of the workload stuff. If you look since 2011, there's been 43 running max. And I was actually talking about this about Breece Hall. If I, you know, I'm not like massively high on Hall, but this is sort of the pro math argument for the past catching side of Breeze Hall. But it's even easier with Trayvion, I think. But since 2011, there's been 43 running backs who played eight or more games who had a 15% target share or better,

Starting point is 00:19:58 target share per game or better, and a 50% running back rush share or better. So just half the team's running back rushes, right? Of those 43, none of them finished worse than RB18 and PPR points per game, and only two of them finished outside the top 12. So if Trayvion Henderson ends up seeing about half the team's running back rushes, which I don't think is a lock, because obviously Ramadra is going to see some that early down work. I mean, the floor ceiling combo is pretty incredible here. Excellent.

Starting point is 00:20:26 Excellent stuff. All right. A few more. Dave, give me rapid fire on Tank Bigsby and Jordan Mason. These are just mid-round flyers that you can take. Two guys that could end up being the lead backs in their respective offenses. We know that Tank Bigsby's efficiency was outstanding last year.

Starting point is 00:20:44 Everyone's freaking out because Travis Eton took all the first team snaps in their first preseason game. Even if that changes, I think we're going to see a full-blown committee anyway with Bigs be the most likely one to work rushing downs and to work at the goal line. I do not think he can even catch 20% of the passes that Treveon Anderson is about to catch this year, but we're driving this guy five rounds later. I think that we could absolutely see in the neighborhood of, I don't know, I'll temper it and say 850 yards and seven touchdowns. This is a really good Jacksonville offense. At least it looks good on paper. I would want to have the running back that could be playing the most on the ground and not seeing eight in the box.

Starting point is 00:21:24 Mason, the younger running back in Minnesota, another team with a pretty good offensive line and some pretty good wide receivers as well. And he's the one who seems to be in line to work at the goal line more so than Aaron Jones. They want to take work off of Aaron Jones plate. These are running backs I'm targeting in the middle rounds, not to start for my fantasy team, at least not to begin the year. But they could be starting for my fantasy team at some point during the year. I'd love to have them on my bench. Heath, on the bus show on Wednesday, we talked about DeAndre Swift, but give me your 30-second take on why DeAndre Swift's a breakout. He was R.B. 15, the last time he was up in Johnson, and he was sharing with Jamal Williams, who Dan Campbell absolutely loved.

Starting point is 00:22:05 I don't think anybody absolutely loves Roshan Johnson or Kyle Menangai. This will be an improved bear's offense, and Swift will catch four plus balls per game, and he has a chance to be a chance to be. top 12 running back for the first time ever. I want to finish on Jalen Warren for JJ. That's somebody that Jamie has been taking a lot. I just said the letter J a lot there. But Jamie's excited about Jalen Warren. So you maybe you're even more excited.

Starting point is 00:22:33 What are you looking for for Warren in this breakout season? Yeah, look, you know, I didn't mind Caleb Johnson as a prospect. I'm not one of those people that just, you know, is pushing him aside and saying that he's a nobody. But I do look at history. And I, you know, if you look at third round running backs since 2011, 40 running back's been drafted after round two and through pick 100. So basically third round picks.

Starting point is 00:22:54 Of those 40, only four of them had a 60% running back rush share as a rookie. And only eight of them had a 50% running back rush air better as a rookie. And then the other thing that I feel like has just been kind of tossed aside, Arthur Smith had this guy named Bijan, sorry, Bejohn Robinson as a rookie. And he was not giving him a full Belcow workload as a rookie, splitting with Tyler Alger as we recall. So I do have some fear in the back of my mind that like we're going to see something similar to what we saw, you know, with with Bajon Robinson when he was a rookie. Warren has been a high target share guy throughout his career, 12%, 15% target share of the last two

Starting point is 00:23:32 years. That's something that we always want out of our running backs. It's one of the big differentiators out of middle round running backs dealt with some injuries last year, but he's always efficient back. And he's also been a back who's really good in pass pro. And look who's under center now is Aaron Roger. He's not going to put up with. bad pass pro reps from a rookie running back. So I know that this is like the third or fourth. I mean, it seems like we've been doing this with Jalen Warren year after year after year. But I do think that there's a lot of logic here to point to Warren, at least like if you go with maybe a hero running back build or even a zero RB build, you're going to get some production

Starting point is 00:24:04 from him at least to start the season before Caleb Johnson really gets immersed in this offense. I was going to ask you to rank three running backs. And I see they're back to back to back in our consensus rankings. But I'll let all three of you rank these three running backs. And then we'll and the show. Tyrone Tracy, Jr., Jalen Warren, Caleb Johnson. JJ, you can start. I'll go Warren, Tracy, Johnson. Dave. Johnson, Tracy Warren. Heath. Tracy Warren Johnson. Okay. There's some great consensus there. Yeah. Anybody feeling a Tyrone Tracy breakout? I'll say like if you, so I do a lot of like ADP analysis, right, and looking at historical ADP and seeing what trends we can find and stuff.

Starting point is 00:24:49 And when you have these ambiguous backfields, which is what the Giants have right now, these multiple middle round running backs who are, you know, getting drafted close to each other. Typically the biggest breakouts we find are second year running backs who are past catchers. And we would probably lean Tyrone Tracy,

Starting point is 00:25:06 you know, Camp Skadaboo can do a lot, but we would lean Tyrone Tracy there. Now Scadaboo is a little banged up. So I'm kind of into Tracy at this moment. It sounds like he's doing pretty well in camp, too. It was a great. It was a very encouraging first drive, obviously playing without scataboo, but a lot of usage and had some good moments last year for sure.

Starting point is 00:25:25 All right, JJ, thank you so much for joining us. I appreciate it, man. Yeah, thanks for having me, guys. Appreciate it. Running backs, they're the real glamour position. Get out of here, wide receivers. All right, we'll talk wide receivers later with Chris Harris. We'll talk tight ends as well. And we'll talk to you then. See you later, everybody.

Starting point is 00:25:46 Paramount Podcasts The first season of Georgie and Mandy is a bona fide hit Be cool, okay, we don't say it out loud Hmm, okay. Can we just say it's great? Thank you for saying that, Elway. With lots and lots of laughs.

Starting point is 00:26:02 So everybody knows? I only told Mandy. Well, I only told Mom and Dad. That's everybody. So, quick summary, laugh at Georgie and Mandy's first marriage with all episodes now streaming on Paramount Plus

Starting point is 00:26:14 and returning new CBS fall. Yes, yes, also yes.

Fantasy Football Today - Running Back Breakouts! Great Rookies, Chase Brown, Ken Walker and More (08/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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