Fantasy Football Today - Running Backs with New Coaches & Coordinators (04/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 14, 2022

Before getting into RBs in new systems, we talk ideal landing spots for Breece Hall (1:00) after he just visited the Texans ... Javonte Williams (3:00) has a new QB and head coach, so should he be a first rounder? ... How David Montgomery and Saquon Barkley's usage may change with new coordinators (8:30) ... Christian McCaffrey talk (11:30) as D'Onta Foreman could take away some goal line work ... Raiders RBs (20:45) as our guys are a bit down on Josh Jacobs due to Josh McDaniels' history using pass-catching RBs ... How to draft Jaguars RBs (27:20) since it could be a full-blown committee or James Robinson may not be ready for Week 1 ... We finish with Dolphins RBs (31:30) and the ugly thing that is the Houston Texans backfield. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Touchdown! Oh, he's done it again! Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Welcome to the Fantasy Football Today podcast. I'm Jamie Eisenberg. That's Dave Richard. That's Heath Cummings. Got a fun show for you today. We're going to talk about some running backs in new situations. Guys that have new head coaches. Maybe guys that have switched teams.

Maybe new offensive coordinators. Should be a fun little episode talking about your favorite position, Dave's favorite position. We're going to talk about the Houston running back situation coming up toward the end of the show, but I want to bring up the news of Brees Hall visiting the Houston Texans. We talked a little bit about where his favorite or our favorite landing spots for him could potentially be.

Heath, as a Dynasty guy, would you like Brees Hall as a member of the Texans? Yeah, I don't think there's a perfect landing spot for a rookie running back due to competition and competency of the teams who might have spots available. The Houston spot at least gives Hall a chance to be a workhorse back from day one. And so I would view that as a positive, and he would definitely be the number one pick for me if he landed in Houston. Dave? I think he'd be the number one pick for me

if he landed in Houston as well. The only other team that I could think of that's got a need and a potential path to 250-plus touches for a rookie running back is Atlanta. And I think he'd be a great fit there too. I'd probably like him better in Atlanta than Houston touches for a rookie running back is Atlanta. And I think he'd be a great fit there too. I'd probably like him better in Atlanta than Houston, just because I like Atlanta's trajectory a little bit more than Houston's. They're both kind of in the same place,

but I do know that the GM for the Texans, Nick Casario comes from new England. Does he also Harbor those same feelings about running backs at the Patriots have for, you know, basically two decades where they're going to mix and match guys and have guys specific to their role. If they do that with Brees Hall,

then how often are we going to see Brees Hall catching passes out of the backfield? Unless he proves to them in a year where they've got Brees Hall and nothing else at running back that he can do that. And that's, that's what I would kind of hope for if he goes to Houston is that he would get that opportunity. The path to 250 touches would be there.

Pep Hamilton, the offensive coordinator, he's better than what they had before. He could help put him in a position to catch some passes. And he proves to the general manager that he can be a three-down workhorse. I would much prefer Houston than Atlanta personally, so I would rather see him go to the Texans than I would see him go to the Falcons. But we'll find out.

Right now he's visited the Commanders, the Giants, and the Texans as far as I see him go to the Falcons, but we'll find out right now. He's visited the commanders, the giants and the Texans, as far as I know, reports and the Colts. Oh no, the bills, the bills, Buffalo. I think the ideal too. Uh, we'll find out there. Those will be fun. Um, but again, we'll see what happens with, uh, the NFL draft. These are just visits.

They don't really mean much, uh, but showing some interest from those teams kind of gives an idea of where these guys may end up once the draft happens in about two weeks all right let's talk about javante williams because he's going to be uh one of the more popular guys that we hear about uh in the next few weeks again hopefully no competition coming out of the nfl draft uh he has a new head coach nathaniel hackett taking over in denver and his history uh with running backs is is not bad at all you know he's been in jacks, been Green Bay, two of his stops along the way. So Dave, when you look at Javante Williams, again,

with the change in quarterback, probably bigger than the change in coach Javante Williams, as of now, no significant competition. Melvin Gordon has not resigned and may not resign based on his visit with the Baltimore Ravens. So viewing Javante Williams, what's going to be different for him if he's the lead back in Nathaniel Hackett's offense with Russell Wilson? Well, he's going to be playing with Russell Wilson. That's a pretty big difference, and that means that

defenses are going to play the Broncos a hell of a lot differently than if it's Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Locke under center. And he certainly looks like he's on his way to being the, at minimum, the one a, if not the full-time dude. I know I saw that James Cook visited Denver and that's when I got like a little shiver down my spine about Denver,

adding somebody and that person taking 35% of the work away from Javante Williams. That would absolutely stink. But Nathaniel Hackett, I talked about it a little bit on a show earlier this week about how Hackett has led the league or been second most in terms of attempts rushed over his time as a play caller. Check this out, guys. Five years as a play caller, Buffalo, Jacksonville combined five years.

His running backs caught at least 23% of the catches every year and at least 30% of the catches four or five years. That sounds amazing. But you think about Russell Wilson and where he likes to go with the football, not really a check down guy. At least he's proven not to be that based on his entire time in Seattle. He likes to throw it farther down the field, but it does open the door for specific play calls to the running back through the air that Wilson would have to follow. The number one read would be the running back,

and I think that would obviously tailor to Javante Williams. I think he's good at catching the ball. I think he's good at anything. So Javante Williams, if there isn't a lot of serious competition for him, say it's James Cook there. Yes, a first-round pick. Yes, a top-ten pick.

Heath, right now you have Javante ranked 9th, 16th overall. Dave, you have him 11th, 17th overall. I'm the high guy on Javante in terms of overall. I have 9th as well, but 13th overall, so just outside the first round. His ADP right now, and this is according to the NFC ADP, which we referenced quite a bit. It's a high-stakes fantasy league. We're looking at the ADP from March 25th on, following the Tyree kill trade. ADP right now has him as the sixth running back off the board, ninth overall. Our fantasy manager is going to be disappointed if you're drafting him now,

not necessarily because just of competition, but is this situation the most ideal for somebody to be drafted that high with Nathaniel Hackett, with Russell Wilson? Well, I think Dave hit on it, that there's an uncertainty in terms of target share for the running backs in this offense and whether that will follow Hackett or that will follow Wilson if it follows Hackett and the number two back in this system is Mike Boone then no I don't think there's anywhere you could draft him that you'd be disappointed he might be the number one running back in fantasy. If it follows Wilson and the number two running back is someone better than Mike Boone, then absolutely. I think he probably will be disappointed. I think he's better off as a round

two pick. Most of Hackett's history shows a two-back system, and it's really hard for me to believe that Boone's going to be the 1B or the number two back. So I just kind of remain cautious. But I think that ADP that you see makes sense if their roster's the same as it is right now in week one. What if it's a guy like James Cook or not the most high-profile rookie that we're looking at here? Because, you know, Cook is certainly going to be a factor in the passing game based on what he told me. He said, I have better hands than my brother.

That's Dalvin Cook's brother, by the way. He told me that at the combine. But if it's, you know, not Breesall, not Ken Walker, not maybe Isaiah Spiller, you know, more of a, you know, day three type of running back. Would that concern you also? Cook might be the one that would concern me. That's not one of those big three, not because I think he's as good as Javante Williams or he's going to take a large share of the work, but he might take some of the work that's really valuable for fantasy purposes, those targets. Yeah, him being paired with a pass catching back, we just saw last year he kind of pushed Melvin Gordon out of that role

and really had it in the second half. I'm really counting on Williams, even if he's sharing, getting a majority of the team's targets. And, you know, Cook's going to be a rookie, so Williams still might. But Cook would worry me the most of the running backs that are not one of those big three. And we saw the one game without Melvin Gordon last year for Javante Williams, Week 13 at Kansas City.

He had 23 carries for 102 yards, nine targets, six catches for 76 yards, and a touchdown. So that's what everybody's hoping to see. Obviously very lofty expectations, but that's what everybody's hoping to see. Obviously very lofty expectations, but that's what we're hoping to see if, in fact, he does keep that lead role in this offense. A lot to like about Javante Williams, which is why we lead with him, why we talk about him a lot. Going to be everybody's favorite breakout candidate.

All right, next week's schedule is going to be fun. Guess who's back? Our buddy Adam Azer. Monday's show is going to be fantasy philosophies and draft strategies. Should be a fun conversation there. Tuesday, as we talked about yesterday with the uh or earlier this week with quarterback and running back from a dynasty rankings perspective we're going to get into wide receiver and tight end rankings from Heath's dynasty rankings then Thursday we'll look at some early average draft positions so uh probably a big focus on the NFC ADP but we'll also factor in some other ADPs as

well get even an early idea of what some of these average draft positions could look like prior to the NFL draft. Let's get more into some of these running backs here. Two guys that we spent some time earlier this week talking about, David Montgomery and Saquon Barkley. They have new systems in place. Luke Getze, the new offensive coordinator for Montgomery. Barkley gets a new head coach in Brian Dable,

who is most likely going to call plays for the Giants. Quickly on these guys, Heath, I'll give you your favorite of Montgomery. Dave, you can take Barkley. Montgomery, what do we expect to be different for him in 2022? I think the offense will be more competent. So hopefully it'd be hard to be less competent. I do think the good thing for him, and Getze, I believe, was the passing game coordinator in Green Bay,

and they had a lot, like as Dave was talking about, a lot of designed passes to the running backs, a lot of getting running backs out and doing things with them, not just behind the line of scrimmage. So I think there could be some more creativity in the way they use Montgomery in the passing game. And Dave, in terms of Barkley, Dable didn't want to run the ball very much

but no different going from Josh Allen to Daniel Jones so what can we expect from Barkley this year let's be honest if you had Josh Allen Zach Moss and Devin Singletary would you run the ball a hell of a lot or would you throw it quite a bit and when he was in Buffalo calling plays in 2018 and 2019 it was closer to even in fact fact, it was 50-50 pass run in 2019, but in 2020 and 2021, it was 60-40. I think he takes a step back from that. I think he gets a little bit more conservative unless he just sees Daniel Jones as the next Josh Allen, which, I mean, I would like to have what he's having if he thinks that that's the case. Saquon Barkley is certainly capable of being a sustaining running back

and good at catching passes out of the backfield. Dable's running backs in the past would catch 20% of the receptions in his offenses until the last couple of years when Josh Allen just caught fire and Allen looked further downfield. Again, riding the quarterback instead of the running back. I think he does the opposite this year. It opens the door for Saquon Barkley to get a lot of work and maybe rack up a lot of numbers to be a top 12 fantasy running back. I think he does the opposite this year. It opens the door for Saquon Barkley to get a lot of work and maybe rack up a lot of numbers to be a top 12 fantasy running back.

But if he's getting a lot of work, doesn't that also open him up to get hurt again? And I know that fantasy managers are going to be hesitant to trust him. I think that's already built into his ADP. That's why when you see him go round three, round four, it sounds crazy. If you had told me two years ago, that sounded absolutely ludicrous for Saquon Barkley.

Now it doesn't sound as crazy, but still a little bit crazy for a running back that has that much upside. I would be interested in Barkley in that late round three to round four range because of Dables offense. And because I expect San Juan to get quite a bit of work if he's healthy. Yeah. Both these guys going to similar range. Montgomery,

I believe is ADP is higher than Barkley's, but both in that mid round three to early round four spot for them. And we'll see again if some of the changes help. Hopefully that's the case. Montgomery, again, new head coach, new coordinator. Barkley, new head coach, new coordinator as well. Let's get a little bit more into some of the guys we have not spent a lot of time talking about this week, at least. And the first one we'll go to right now is Christian McCaffrey.

So he has the same head coach at least as of now but Matt Rule is probably the hottest of hot in terms of hot seats for the upcoming season but Ben McAdoo is the new offensive coordinator there for the Carolina Panthers and I know that probably sounds gross to Giants fans and how that Giants offense looked but he wasn't a bad offensive coordinator in previous stops or at least uh you know being part of offensive staffs in previous stops so you got Christian McCaffrey now and they bring in Deontay Foreman to be the number two guy at least being part of offensive staffs in previous stops. So you got Christian McCaffrey now, and they bring in Deontay Foreman to be the number two guy. At least that's the expectation.

Still could be Chuba Hubbard, but we expect Foreman maybe to take that second role, which could take McCaffrey off the field. I asked Matt Rule at the owner's meetings about McCaffrey. He said he's excited for him to finally play a full season. That would be fun for a lot of fantasy managers. And he said they have no intention of moving him around aside from a few plays. They're not going to put him in the slot. They're not going to try and, you know,

keep him healthy that way by taking some of the carries off his plate. So as long as Matt rules the coach, we probably expect to see the same Christian McCaffrey. So right now the ADP for McCaffrey is the fourth running back off the board, fifth overall. I have him second overall, second running back behind Jonathan Taylor. Dave has him fifth. Keith, you have him fourth so mccaffrey with uh ben mcadoo calling plays do we like that we scared of it there's

just more about health from mccaffrey where you guys come out on christian mccaffrey heath i'll start with you i think he's one of those guys that like the coaching staff really shouldn't matter very much if he's healthy and they have some plan where they're not going to give him the ball as much then that's a bad plan and they're probably not going to have jobs very long. It's all about his health. Now, I would like it if they would use him a little bit more as a wide receiver and put him in the slot. It doesn't sound like they're going to do that. Maybe the targets go down just a little bit with McAdoo just because his target rate when he was healthy was so outrageous for a running back that any change you would expect if it's going to move it's going to move that direction

but I wouldn't expect it will move very much it's a west coast offense uh and it's something that he's not necessarily dealt with specifically before but it's close enough to what it was when it was North Turner and as far as run scheme goes, offense in general is different. Norv doesn't run the exact same thing. And I agree with you. They'd be dumb if they got away from McCaffrey, at least as a pass catcher. What worries me is that they signed Deontay Foreman. That's a guy who can be a bruiser.

Is he there to take, you know, punishing carries away from McCaffrey to try and keep McCaffrey fresher? If that's the case, then we're talking about between the tackles carries, third and short, but also goal line carries. Could that come into play there where Foreman suddenly is a guy who racks up seven touchdowns this year, and Christian McCaffrey's touchdown total falls by seven. That would absolutely suck.

And I'm nervous about the injuries with McCaffrey. The fact that he's had two seasons in a row where he's been beat up. How can those coaches in Carolina ignore that? So they're going to play a weird balancing act. I expect them to lean toward McCaffrey quite a bit still. That's why I'm comfortable taking him as a top five. But I'd rather have a couple

of other running backs that I think feel a little bit safer. And I'll give up on that upside from McCaffrey in exchange for guys that just give me a little bit of a safer taste on draft day. And I'm sure that's the way most people feel when it comes to a player like this that's been injured significantly for the last two seasons, only playing 10 games

over that span. But when he's on the field, clearly he's amazing. Even in the three games he played in 2020, he averaged nearly 30 fantasy points, 30 PPR points per game. Excuse me. That was basically his pace for what he did in his record-breaking season in 2019. So hopefully that's the guy that we're going to get. It'd be nice to see him play at least 13-plus games.

Obviously, anything close to a full season would be amazing. So you have to understand the risk with McCaffrey. I think you guys said it best. It's not about the coach. It's just about him staying on the field. I don't worry about Deontay Foreman. I think McCaffrey's there. He's getting as much work as he can handle.

Matt Rule's got to win games. Best way to win games for the Carolina Panthers is the ball in Christian McCaffrey's hand. So we'll see hopefully how he does. Expectations are that he should be fine for training camp. And again, Matt Rule, very excited about Christian McCaffrey's upcoming season. Kevin O'Connell's very excited about Dalvin Cook's upcoming season as well. And this is another player that we've talked a little bit about this offseason

when we've been looking at Buss. I know that's a guy that he's a little bit concerned about. His ADP right now is at the seventh running back off the board, 10th overall player, so still a first-round pick, but sliding a little bit from where he used to go, which was as a top-five overall pick, now closer to the back end of round one. He's the sixth running back for me, seventh for both of you, so we're in the same range for Dalvin Cook.

So, Dave, when you look at this new offense for Kevin O'Connell, we're expecting, and this is always a tricky game to play because when the guy's not the primary play caller, but he's coming from a successful system, is Kevin O'Connell going to run the Rams offense or do we expect him to run his own offense? Maybe a version of the Rams offense. O'Connell stepping into a new role because we really don't have a lot of history of him calling plays or being in the spot.

I would expect it to be very close to the Rams offense, which is a wonderful thing for Dalvin Cook, but it'll have a little bit more of a flair for the passing game. That's what we've seen from former quarterbacks that end up as play callers is they kind of relate better to the quarterback. They think more like a quarterback and they want to throw a little bit more. That could end up being wonderful for Justin Jefferson and wonderful for Adam Thielen. It keeps Kirk Cousins on the fantasy radar. And it can also be good for Dalvin Cook because we've seen him work as a pass catcher before. But ultimately, I think they're going to look at Dalvin Cook and they're going to find ways to get him involved in the offense.

Big shocker. That's what they've been doing in Minnesota for years. The difference is that with Mike Zimmer, Zimmer kind of insisted we got to run the ball. We got to run the ball. And Kevin O'Connell will probably take a little bit of a step back from that, but also try and involve Dalvin Cook a little bit more in the passing game. I think that they're probably also a little concerned about Dalvin Cook staying healthy, and they might try and get Madison a little bit more involved from week to week and give him a little bit of work, maybe in the neighborhood of seven touches per week. But I

still expect Dalvin Cook to be very good and maybe a little bit more efficient than what he was last year in this iteration of the Vikings offense. Steve, is your main concern with him just injury and health, or is it more concerned about age and injury risk, or is it more concerned about this new offense that we might see for Minnesota? Which side worries you more? it's definitely a combination i would say the the age injury worries me more but and listen i think they could score more touchdowns than they have in the past i think it's what you said they're gonna this will be the best offense that they've had

since kirk cousins has been there i wouldn't be surprised if that's true um i'll be very interested how much they throw the ball to their running backs. Last year, Minnesota, I think, was 15th in running back target rate, very close to league median. Two years ago, they were 13th, slightly above league median. The Rams have been 32nd and 30th the last two years in running back target rate. Now, they haven't had Delvin Cook, so maybe they will just completely swap. But I do think if you look at Cook's efficiency and volume as a pass catcher as well,

last year was his worst year as a pass catcher. Yes. I don't know that there's a big bounce back. I don't think we should expect 50 catches. I'm not sure we get up to 40 catches. I just, I think it's going to be an offense that in the passing game is more centered around Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, KJ Osborne, Irv Smith, less centered around throwing to the running backs like they were with the Rams. It makes a lot of sense. You know, I guess the one thing in terms of which Rams offense are we going to see, are we going to see when they had a feature guy, which was Todd Gurley, you know, back in 2018, 2019, specifically the 2018 season when Gurley was still at the peak of his powers and he had 81 targets and 59 catches, you know. So if you're getting that on top of what Dalvin Cook should provide as a rusher

and in that season, that was only 14 games for Todd Gurley. Remember, he broke down at the end of the season. This was when things started to really fall apart from at the end of the year going into their Super Bowl. He still had almost 1,900 total yards. And so we're talking about or 1800 total yards excuse me um with uh what was it 21 touchdowns you know so if you're getting that from from somebody like donald cook he should be in the top three if not number one overall

so well and back then kevin o'connell was with the washington football team right right what i'm saying is you know what what did he take from sean mcveigh you know so what was the the Washington football team, right? Right. What I'm saying is, you know, what did he take from Sean McVay? You know, so what was the carryover from McVay's tenure? You know, is it being part of a team that had a running back by committee because of default, you know, that he was kind of stuck with on that staff? Or is it more of, okay, McVay wants to have a guy. Do the Vikings want to have a guy? You know, and so we're going to see more of a, of a committee with,

with Madison working in it. It's, it's really, you know, something we'll have to find out and see. It's not something I think we're going to know going in unless O'Connell says, I don't want to run down and cook it to the ground. We're going to use more of Alexander Madison, which I think a lot of people would like to see from a Madison perspective, which could make it easier to draft out. You're still going to draft them in the first two rounds.

If they were to say that and be, you know, full disclosure, but you may not draft him closer to five. You would draft him closer to where his ADP is, 10 maybe, into the beginning of the second round. But I'm excited about this Vikings offense, which is why I'm still bullish on Dalvin Cook. So I understand the risk. Clearly, you see I have McCaffrey ranked two, Cook ranked six. I'm buying into these guys hopefully playing more than the amount of games for McCaffrey,

clearly, and Cook staying healthy for one more season. So you've heard me say this time and time again, as Heath referenced, I'm very excited about this Vikings offense. So I'm still going to be bullish on Dalvin Cook, but also bullish on Alexander Madison as well. The Raiders have a new head coach with Josh McDaniel coming from the Patriots, taking over there in Las Vegas. And so now we have two running backs that we have to be concerned about a little bit.

Josh Jacobs, we talked a little bit about him yesterday, earlier this week, excuse me, on our Dynasty show with Jacobs. But for the upcoming season, we have Drake back and now the new head coach in Josh McDaniels. So ADP for Jacobs in redraft is as the 19th running back off the board going into round four at 39th overall. Drake is the 52nd running back based on ADP, 169th overall. And in terms of rankings, nobody has Kenyon Drake in the top 50. Jacobs is 15th for me, 16th for Dave, and 18th for Heath. So Heath doing a little bit of a 180 from last year when you were very bullish on Josh Jacobs.

Now you're the low guy for whatever reason based on maybe the new head coach. So let's start there. Is that the reason you're a little bit lower on jacobs because the coaching change i didn't like the uh the brandon bolden signing i know it shouldn't matter i know they were in on james white as well i just the coaching change i do worry about the fact that mcdaniels has always had a pass catching back but there's always been somebody else to play that role now i think jacobs could score a bunch of touchdowns i think if he 17 games, he'll probably finish as a top 12 running back. There's just 20 of those guys. And it's very close.

He could move anywhere from 13 to 20, and it wouldn't really cause a big difference. The only real concern I have about him, though, is how many targets is he going to get? And will Drake and or Bolden take that role? Dave, Josh Jacobsbs comparatively maybe to david montgomery zaquan barkley ezekiel elliott some guys we spent some time earlier this week talking about you know just from a redraft perspective how much do you like or dislike by comparison he's in that range but he's closer to excuse me first sorry um he's he's closer to barkley than he is to Montgomery.

And it's because of what he said. We know what the track record is of Josh McDaniels. And I do think that McDaniels would someday accept a three down workhorse guy if he thought he had one. And I just don't know. I don't know if Jacobs is that guy. I know that he had a good year catching the ball last year, but I can't count on him for that type of production. What I'm hoping for is the type of workload that he had in 2020 with the type of rushing average that he had as a rookie. And if he does that, then he's going to hit his ceiling. He's going to get you north of 1,300 total yards.

He's gotten right around 1,300 total yards. Maybe I'm thinking 1,350 or 1,400 total yards. And double-digit touchdowns. I still think he can get you double-digit touchdowns. I'm a little bit worried about him getting 1,350, probably closer to 1,200, maybe 1,225, something like that. And that's a solid number two fantasy running back who doesn't catch a lot of passes. He had 24 catches last season after Darren Waller's injury on Thanksgiving at Dallas.

And that coincides with, so Waller left the Dallas game in week 12. In week 13, Kenyon Drake, that was his last game of the season before he got hurt. So 24 catches, and what did he finish with on the season? 54. 54. So more than, or almost half of his production came in a one, two,

three, four, five, six, seven and half the season. So can you do that when Waller's back, when Adams is back with Drake back Adams there, excuse me,

can he be as productive as a pass catcher? And that's the other thing though, Jamie is this offense is going to change quite a bit, not just because there's a totally different play caller, but because Devontae Adams is there. So does that make Derek Carr think more about throwing downfield? Does he pull a Russell Wilson? And that not only would hurt Jacobs,

because obviously if he's not going to play on passing downs, he's not going to get the ball, but it's going to hurt whoever that running back is behind him, be it Kenyon Drake or if they draft somebody. I don't know if there's a rookie in this draft class. It's amazing. Call it James Cook. Somebody who can come in and be a pass catcher

and a third-down guy to work in tandem with Josh Jacobs. Yeah, it's just, again, it's like the Minnesota situation for me. I expect this offense to be better. I expect more touchdown opportunities. We know the narrative with Josh Jacobs throughout his career. When they're winning or in a competitive game, he's much better. When they're losing and chasing points, he hasn't been as good. Maybe he's finally coming into his own.

Maybe Josh McDaniels will feature him and might not be the same system from the Patriots. He might want to be a little bit different and more creative. So it'll be interesting to see. Jacobs, I think, ranked appropriately, being drafted appropriately. I'd be surprised if he gets into the fourth round once we start to look at full ADP come August. But mid third round, late third round, I think is a good spot for Josh Jacobs. I'm going to take a break right now. When we come back and you get into the Jacksonville situation, the Miami situation, and a little more talk about the Houston situation as well. So stay right here to Fantasy Football today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit.

More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine Possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. All right, let's talk about Jacksonville here. So Travis Etienne, we know that some of these teams

are starting their off-season programs with new head coaches. They're allowed to start working out now. So Travis Etienne met with the media, had a very funny line about why he missed last season. He said it was a good season to miss based on on what happened with urban meyer and the whole situation there so no more urban meyer but travis etn expected to be fine for their offseason program the fact that he met with the media is a good sign and he says that he's 85 to 90 recovered james robinson unfortunately etn is coming off of the liz frank injury james robinson however we don't expect to

see until training camp at the earliest and that would be a good situation to have him back there for the start of the season. He's coming off of the Achilles tear from last season. So Etienne, understandably so, being drafted ahead of Robinson. His ADD, based on the NFC ADP, is at the 24th running back off the board, going 59th overall. And for our rankings, he's 23rd for me. This is PPR, 26th for Dave, and 31st for Heath. off the board going 59th overall and for our rankings he's 23rd for me this is ppr 26 for dave

and 31st for heath then you get to robinson who understandably going much later his adp is 41 at running back 121 overall and the rankings are 37 for me 38 for dave and 37 for heath so jacksonville hopefully will be in a better situation than it was a year ago because of doug peterson changes on the offensive line because of new weapons and a better Trevor Lawrence. And so which running back, let's assume they're both ready to go for week one Robinson being eased in ETN,

maybe the same thing. How are we going to approach this Jacksonville run game under Doug Peterson? Dave, I'll start with you. I would imagine. Well, listen,

Doug Peterson, what do we know about him? He's super crystal clear about his running backs. He absolutely finds a guy, and he sticks with him tried and true, right? Yeah. Yeah, no, not so much. I think he's going to stick with the quarterback in Jacksonville. That's just a guess. I don't think C.J. Beathard's going to end up surprising us one week as the starter over

Trevor Lawrence. Three of five years in Philadelphia. The offense finished top 10 in rush attempts. 250 catch. They were okay with yards. Well caught 50 passes. I think you're probably going to see

if they're both ready to go, you'll eventually see Robinson is the rushing downs guy. Etn is the passing downs guy. Robinson working short yardage. Etn certainly catching the ball and making plays out of the backfield and trying to get his speed out on the perimeter. There is dark horse upside for Etn to be the primary running back. And that could be the case if they're both ready for week one. But they're like you said,

James easing in James Robinson. And let's say he just takes off. Then James Robinson won't have a chance. He'll get eight carries a game and Travis Etienne will be the hero. That's why as of now, I'm, I mean, it's easy to draft Etienne first now,

but I would also draft Etienne first. If Robinson isn't at a at 100 to begin the year i would need to see james robinson come back from the injury be a part of the preseason look like his old self in the preseason and then pretty much have it made crystal clear that travis etn is going to be a passing out guy for robinson to jump over etn and go back to being a top 60 pick like he was once upon a time he's based on the adp it seems like you're out on the jaguars guys right yeah um i would i like robinson at his adp the 10 11 turn um that's sure that's fantastic i'm i'm out on etn at the 5-6 turn i've got a little bit of concern with him coming off the foot injury as well and i don't really think he's going to be a feature back um i think if they're both healthy then

robinson and etn are probably both really good flexes and if robinson's not ready then etn's probably about where he's being ranked right now um and there's somebody else that's handling 10 touches a game for jackson. It is something to consider. You know, I don't know if Jacksonville is, is approaching it that way until they probably get a full scope of where Robinson is. So this could be, you know, a summer signing or maybe they just addressed it in the NFL draft.

We just don't know. You know, so we could see, you know, and I'm not saying these names in particular, but this type of situation, like what Baltimore did last year with the Devante Freeman or Latavious Murray, you know, bringing in a veteran that might get cut or something along those lines. Or they could surprise us.

Who knows? Maybe they get in the Melvin Gordon sweepstakes, and that's the situation there. One of the backs that signed already, they were allegedly one of the two or three teams he was talking to. It was either Connor or Edmonds. I don't remember which one it was.

I'll see if I can find that real quick. But they have been noted as at least talking to. It was either Connor or Edmonds. I don't remember which one it was. I'll see if I can find that real quick, but they have been noted as at least talking to free agent running backs. Right. And, you know, there was an Urban Meyer connection, but it could always be somebody like a Carlos Hyde too. You know, somebody along those lines also that they decide to bring in just to get them through until James Robinson's back would not be surprised. You know, the question I posed was clearly a rosy situation for James Robinson, but he could easily be a pup candidate, not not in training camp but for the start of the season to make sure that he is right for the second half i'm sure they don't want to rush him back um if they don't need

to so a lot of this in terms of doug peterson you know we're we're clearly excited about the jacksonville offense comparatively to where it was a year ago to what extent probably depends on how much you view trevor lawrence how you view the additions that they have in Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram, Zay Jones and Brandon Scherf on the offensive line. And then clearly what this means, Etienne, a lost rookie season. I think you said it, Heath. You know, we don't know if the foot will limit him in any capacity to what he was based on what we saw in Clemson when he was a superstar.

And then James Robinson is just such a wild card right now because we don't know when he will be ready to go coming off what has been a brutal injury for running backs. You know, we're, we're, we're hopeful that it's a can maker situation, but until we see it, we just don't know, um, the dolphin situation. So this is an interesting one here because you have Mike McDaniel, the new head coach, and now he comes with a guy that he's familiar with in Raheem Mostert who played in San Francisco where Mike McDaniel was the running game coordinator, had a hand in play calling and was a big factor according to Kyle Shanahan and all the things that they did to get ready on a week-to-week basis. But they also bring

in Chase Edmonds, who was signed from the Cardinals, the first running back to sign as a free agent this offseason, which I always think is something to note because this is the guy they prioritized clearly and they brought him in before they brought in Raheem Moster. Now, Myles Gaskin may still be a part of this. Saban Othman may still be a part of this. I'm sure there might be a trade or a cut coming at some point this summer if they don't want to keep a lot of running backs. And Kyle Shanahan has traditionally said he likes to have four. So those guys could all make the final roster. We know Duke Johnson no longer part of the team. He's a member of the Buffalo Bills. Edmonds currently, based on the NFC ADP, is being the first one drafted. He's going 33rd at running back, 93rd overall.

Raheem Mostert might be my favorite buy of anybody based on ADP right now. He's the 49th running back at 157 overall. So let's take a look at the rankings for all of us here. I have them back-to-back. Edmonds 33, Mostert 34. Dave, you're in a similar range. Edmonds 34, Mostert 36. Keith, you have a big disparity here. You have Edmonds 24th and Mostert at 34. Dave, you're in a similar range. Edmonds, 34, Mostert, 36. Keith, you have a big disparity here.

You have Edmonds, 24th, and Mostert at 40. So let's start there. Why do you like Edmonds that much better than Raheem Mostert? I generally, and we've talked about this before, try to project everybody for 17 games. I made an exception last year for Will Fuller because I just couldn't get myself to do it. And I can't get myself to project 17 games

for a 30-year-old running back who's never had more than 150 touches in a season. I think this, these guys will be very close in value for the period of time that Raheem Mostert is healthy. I still would prefer Edmonds over Mostert in full PPR. Cause I think he's going to be passing down this guy. I don't, I have six questions about what Mostert has left in the tank at his age. When he's played over the last three seasons, he's been one of the fastest players in football, and he's been awesome. But he's 30, and he's had multiple major injuries in the last couple of years. So I don't know if he still has that left.

But more than that, it's just I don't trust that he's going to be a 15-touch game guy for any more than maybe 10 games. And I think Edmonds will be almost as good as him when they're both healthy, and Edmonds will be a number two running back when Mostert's not available. What are your expectations in the passing game for Edmonds? Because this is an offense, again, and we don't know if Mike McDaniel is going to change things. But in the last four seasons in San Francisco, no running backs caught more than 33 passes and so is edmunds going to be different from those guys or is he going to be in that range plus whatever he does as a yeah i i

think he's going to be different from those guys and i i think you kind of hit on why he was the first running back signs the dolphins went out and made Chase Edmonds a priority. I can't imagine they would do that if they're not planning on throwing to him. He's not a guy that you go out and make a priority because you want to hand it off to him between the tackles 15 times a game. So my concern is that I don't, I think, you know, we hope that Edmonds is going to be this pass catching guy. The 49ers offense hasn't shown us that with their primary guy over the last four seasons

and Tua hasn't shown us that. Most of the passes that we've seen caught by running backs the last two years under Tua have come from Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jacoby Brissett. Also, you mentioned the 15 touches per game. He's only had four games in four seasons where he's been 15 carries or more, so he hasn't profiled as a workhorse guy,

which is why I like Mostert a little bit better, but clearly we have to have Mostert on the field, and that's going to be the biggest thing there. So, Dave, when you look at Mike McDaniel and just in terms of what this offense will be, do you expect it to be San Francisco? Because if there is a spot for a thing to be mirrored from one team to the next,

you would think the running game coordinator would bring the run game with this new team. Yeah, I expect that to be a carbon copy. And so if that's going to be the case, then we should completely expect there to be multiple running backs used. We should expect a lot of zone running. Edmonds is familiar with it. He's going to have to get coached up on the nuances

of really how McDaniel likes to run the football. And I think he can be just fine at adapting to it. But the only thing I really have to add to what you guys have already said because i totally agree about how this offense is going to roll number one raheem mostard is specifically a zero rb draft pick don't take him thinking well he's going to give me good depth over the course of the season by week six he might be on ir you draft rah Mostert. If you wait on running back and you're in round six, round seven, he's still there. You need somebody to fill in that RB2 spot to begin the year. And he might actually fill it in admirably well, as long as he's healthy.

You just can't count on him to be healthy. The other thing I'm going to point out is that this is an absolute landing spot for a running back in the draft. We've seen it every year from the 49ers that they go into the draft. They find seen it every year from the 49ers that they go into the draft. They find somebody that's already pretty good at running their scheme, and then they bring them in. Usually it's a day three pick. Sometimes it's a day two pick, and that player gets the opportunity to show what he can do, and if he can adapt quickly to what that system is, he'll have a chance to see the field, especially if the running back in front of them happens to get hurt. If they pick a running back, say it's James Cook and say, I don't know for sure that James

Cook can run zone, but I'm going to guess that he can. Let's say they get James Cook. That's somebody that could impact Chase Edmonds because he's such a good pass catcher out of the backfield. So let's see who they add there. Who's the third man? It worked for the NWO. Will it work for the Miami Dolphins? I say

it could end up being somebody very interesting and somebody that people will take with a late pick. Specifically, if you go 0-RB and you take Raheem Mostert around 75th or 80th overall, and you get this running back, whoever it is, with your 13th round pick. And one more thing because when you were talking about the San

Francisco running backs that haven't caught passes, I got to thinking, you know, I do generally lean on what teams have done in the past. And so I was curious why I'd projected so many targets for Chase Edmonds. Last year, San Francisco was tied for 13th in running back target rate. 20% of their targets went to running backs. That does not count the passes to Debo out of the backfield, which I would say a lot of those are targets that may go to running backs or might go to Waddle or Tyree Kill.

Two years ago, San Francisco was seventh with 139 targets to their running back. So there hasn't been a guy who's caught a lot of passes over the past two seasons, though they have thrown to their running backs at an above average rate. Right, and Kyle, you stick factors into this as well. You know, so they don't,

the Dolphins don't have a fullback of that level. And so that's certainly something to keep an eye on. And Dave, you mentioned, you know, adding a running back. I'm looking at one mock draft here that has Damian Pierce going to the Dolphins in round four. So that's a perfect fit. And he can, he can catch the ball too. Right.

So it's, it's kind of something you have to keep an eye on there. And, you know, it's not only that they've done a good job of, you know, finding guys late in the draft, Elijah Mitchell being, you know, a key part of that. They've also taken guys off the scrap heap. Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, you know, guys that, you know, not necessarily anybody thought would do anything. And because of their system, they've turned them into successful players.

The same thing can happen with Myles Gaskin. The same thing can happen with Saban Ahmed or wherever else ends up being on the roster there. So it might not be just Edmonds and Mostert. And so something to keep in mind, again, in the pre-draft process, if you are doing any of your fantasy drafts right now or trades in Dynasty, just keep that in mind that Mostert, as Heath said, 30, by the way, happy belated birthday, just turned 30 four days ago.

And Chase Edmonds, you know, might just be part of a committee once again in Miami. All right, let's go to Houston again. We talked at the start of the show about Brees Hall visiting the Texans and what that might mean for them. But as of now, their backfield is gross. Oh, boy. Marlon Mack, Jack Burkhead, Royce Freeman, Dario Gumbuale are currently on the team.

David Johnson, I believe, is still a free agent. So we'll see if they decide to bring him back. But you have Mack and Burkhead right now looking like the top two guys, maybe Royce Freeman factoring in as well. Burkhead closed the season playing very well for the Texans. Marlon Mack might get an opportunity if they don't address the position in the draft, but that would be a little bit of a surprise if they don't bring somebody else in. So with Lovie Smith taking over there as the head coach, Pep Hamilton as the play caller now, what do we think about this scenario for a running back here?

Can this be something where if it's a rookie or Mack or Burkhead, can they have success enough that fantasy managers, assuming he's not a high-profile rookie, but success where fantasy managers to whatever degree, Hall would be probably a top three- round pick no matter where he ends up in redraft. And then any of these other guys as late round flyers, can the system be successful enough to help fantasy managers find something here?

Do you guys remember how excited you were to draft Texans running backs last year? But that's a different scenario. We were, we were, we were thrilled. I, is the scenario that much better?

We're, we're still going to see running backs yes they have their quarterback situation solved they're going to have a lot of capital to read you know retool this team yeah i think it's better it might be a half step better i don't know if it's like i mean you're excited about the falcons and the falcons have nothing i think the texans are definitely in a better spot than the Falcons. Really? Okay. I haven't updated since the Marlon Mack signing. I think Marlon Mack will probably just barely sneak into my top 50 running backs and his ADP is 57. So I guess I like Marlon Mack. But basically it's,

do they draft one of the top three running backs? And if they, in the first two rounds, and if they draft one, draft one of the top three running backs and if they in the first two rounds and if they draft one draft one of the top three running backs in the first two rounds then those guys are going to be drafted um no later than round four i wouldn't think and if they don't then it's going to be a complete mess and we'll use these guys as waiver wire fodder and stream running back i'm curious i'm really curious to see what they're going to do. You know, I,

I don't mind Brees all going there just because I think this is a team that's going to continue to get better year over year because of the draft capital that they have. And the opportunity for a workload scenario is, is certainly right in front of them because I don't think Marlon Mack and Rex Burke and Royce Freeman are keeping a guy like Brees all off the field or Ken Walker or whatever. I could see Marlon Mack being a small problem

just because they're going to want to have a veteran with a rookie. That seems like something an old-school coach like Lovey would want to do. I just love the symmetry with all the comparables between Jonathan Taylor and Brees Hall in terms of the same 40-time. I'd love it if he got to go to play with Marlon Mack just like Jonathan Taylor did. You know, it's funny you mentioned that, because what would have happened

if Mack didn't blow out his Achilles that season? Right. Or is he? I thought it was Achilles. What would have happened had he stayed healthy? You know, would Jonathan Taylor have become what he's become? I like to think so. But, you know, how long would it have taken?

You know, because it was a slow start in his rookie year, even without Marlon Mack on the field. And so, or not slow, but, you know, it was a slow start in his rookie year even without marlon mack on the field and so we're not slow but you know it was a slow build um to what he became as a rookie and then you know took off last year so i hope i hope it's not the case but again brie saul the reason we mentioned it if you missed the start of the show uh visited the houston texans as part of one of his draft visits so we'll see if that's a move that they make and we'll find out what this houston texans backfield looks like all right that's our spin on the running backs just Just want to wrap up really quickly. Derek Carr got a three-year contract extension according to the NFL network for $121 million. So

looking at that, he's more from a dynasty perspective. Now that he's locked in, there was some talk prior to the Devante Adams move that they may have moved on from Derek Carr. Now he's locked in for another three seasons, so he's going to be there through 2025. Again, three years, $121.5 million. Derek Carr's long-term future is what, from a dynasty perspective? I just factored in because I had his risk factor in my dynasty rankings a little bit higher than you might guess for a player like him because I wasn't sure if Josh McDaniels wanted him to be the quarterback.

Now that he's locked in for three years with Devontae Adams, I have moved Carr ahead of Kirk Cousins. I've moved him ahead of Aaron Rodgers, and I've moved him ahead of Mac Jones. Those were the three quarterbacks who were ahead of him. He is QB 16, I believe now. A high-end number two quarterback. I think there's a chance that he goes out and has a top 12 season this year and we look at him a lot differently. Dave, in terms of redraft, what do you think about Derek Carr? He might be somebody who gets

picked. Obviously, in a super flex or two QB league, he definitely will get picked. I like him better. What's up. I like him better than Aaron Rogers this year. I think I probably do too, but I want to wait and see who green Bay surrounds Rogers with. What do they do in the draft?

Do they make a trade? Cause all it'll take is like one big splash move in green Bay. Sure. And people will have that conversation. Carr's been pretty solid without Devontae Adams. You've got to imagine he'll be a step better than that with him. We'll find out. But again, the news is he's locked in. Three years, $121.5 million.

The Raiders going all in on Derek Carr after going all in on Devontae Adams. So I'm sure we'll get into a little bit of that more next week. When we talk about some of the wide receiver and tight end dynasty rankings, this was our running back show on guys who have new coaches in new situations, new systems. And hopefully we helped you out with some of the discussion points there. Devante,

we have Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook and the light for Dave Richard, for Heath Cummings. I'm Jamie Eisenberg. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening. It's been a piece of bullshit.