Fantasy Football Today - Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, Baker Mayfield and More (03/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 11, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts We've got some early action as Free Agency Week begins! Who is the biggest winner so far (1:30)? Who is the biggest loser (2:30)? There are reasons to be excited about George Pickens now, but perhaps the same should not be said for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. David Njoku could also be a loser as the Browns added Jerry Jeudy ... We give our takeaways on the Steelers offense with Russell Wilson (7:10), the Browns offense with Jeudy (18:30) and the Bucs offense (27:30) with Baker Mayfield getting a new contract. We discuss basically every relevant player including Diontae Johnson, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore ... Some gut feelings (34:45) and more news and notes (40:00) to finish the show ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Well, over the last two seasons, the Pittsburgh Steelers have thrown a combined 25 touchdown passes. That is horrible. Russell Wilson threw 26 touchdown passes in 15 games in 2023. We won't, we'll just forget that he hit only 16 in 2022.

But hopefully a quarterback upgrade for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they've signed Russell Wilson to a one-year deal. What else are we talking about? Baker Mayfield back to the Bucs. We'll just let you know, Mac Jones is on the Jaguars. You probably knew that. Tyler Lockett restructuring his deal with the Seahawks. Jerry Judy going to the Cleveland Browns. Kendrick Bourne back to the Patriots were so good.

They're just bringing the whole band back together. Hunter Henry and Kendrick Bourne resigning there. And we'll give you some offensive line news as well. All four of us are here today for the first of, I expect to be at least two podcasts today. Hopefully we'll have a busy, fun first day of free agency. It's Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, of all the moves we've seen, guys, the big ones being the Judy trade,

the Wilson signing, Mayfield coming back. Heath, who's the biggest fantasy winner right now? Oh, yeah, I think that depends on how realistic you thought it was that Baker Mayfield might leave, probably. But I thought Mayfield was probably going back, so I'm going to say George Pickens. George Pickens. Okay.

Dave, Jamie, biggest winner? Marvin Min. Okay. Yeah? How about you, Dave? I don't know if there's a real winner here. I'll say Mike Evans just because I think you'll feel a little bit better drafting him with Baker back than you would be if he had a new, possibly worse or younger quarterback. Let's see.

Would you draft Marvin Mims right now or Tyler Lockett? I'd like to see who the quarterback is in Denver, but I would lean toward Mims. I think I'd go Lockett probably. I would too. But we're talking later than usual for Lockett, I hope. Who's the biggest fantasy loser? David Njoku. Sure. it's not bad that's yeah he was already in trouble with uh his numbers based on deshaun watson last year right and now you're throwing another quality player into the mix

i hate this i hate this for jsn though i hate hate it hate it hate it hate it yeah i'd probably say jsn's a bigger loser yeah just just because i like it's very possible that jerry judy's impact in cleveland is elijah moore's impact in cleveland right yeah lockett though i mean lockett's coming off obviously a bad season and he's 32 years old in september um so you know maybe jsn let's see where he went in our last mock draft. He went, no, he went round six in the post. Oh yeah. Post Superbowl mock draft.

That's our last one. Uh, last, last pick of round six, Jackson Smith and Jigba right after I took Christian Watson. I remember struggling with that one, Christian Watson, JSN. Um, but you know, I think when we were drafting, we at least thought it was certainly possible that Lockett would be back. So how much farther does he fall than the last pick of round six?

When would you guys take JSN right now? Where did George Pickens go in that draft? Because I looked at his ADP on a couple of sites and he was like pick 74. He was three picks later. Three picks later than those guys? See, I would much rather have Pickens than those guys now.

For sure. Yeah. Right, that was the Arthur Smith news downgrading him, and now the Russell Wilson. I mean, it's obviously an upgrade. We were talking off the air about Russell Wilson and how excited you guys are. He's clearly, can we just say,

he's clearly an upgrade over Kenny Pickett? Oh, this is a great move for them. I mean, based on what they're paying him and what their team structure looks like, it's fantastic. You know, you're taking a chance on a guy that if he just plays like he did last year, which was not great, but if he plays like he have – Wilson doesn't have a great track record with tight ends. That's hard to expect. But you're just looking at what Kenny Pickett's done, and they've been a playoff team in the last two years despite the awful quarterback play. So get Russell Wilson to play somewhat competent football. He's going to be fine.

They're going to be fine. They're not a Super Bowl contender, but they're a playoff contender. Okay, and we could jump around to a lot of different things here, but maybe we'll just focus on, well, I'll give out some stats about some of these guys, and you can tell me what you think about them. But also, there are some Deontay Johnson trade rumors, so we'll see if he sticks with the team.

Here are some fun stats about relevant players. Among 80 wide receivers with 50 or more targets last year, George Pickens ranked third in yards per target and first in yards per target and first in yards per catch. He was one of three receivers who had three or more catches that went for 60 or more yards. So huge plays. It was

Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase and George Pickens. But Kendrick Bourne averaged more PPR fantasy points per game than George Pickens which is a fun little stat for you. Kendrick Bourne, of course, coming off a torn ACL and re-signing with the Patriots. He's also 29.

What's that? He's also 29. Bourne? Yeah. Is that old now? 29's old? Well, he was born 29 years ago. Where did Kendrick Bourne finish last year? Wide receiver 35, I think.

33, 35. He actually had a pretty good year. He had eight games. Four of them were pretty solid. Had a two-touchdown game to open the season and then scored a touchdown each of his last two games, including the one he got hurt. Did you say two or three?

Yeah, two games. But the game before that was good, too. Jerry Judy has only 28 career red zone targets. By comparison, CeeDee Lamb had 31 last year. But Jerry Judy, explosive catch rate in four seasons among wide receivers with 50 or more targets. There's usually 85-ish or so. 30th, 28th, 5th, and 22nd.

I still think Judy is an intriguing player. He makes plays, just doesn't get a lot of targets. They've done extremely well, the Browns. Fifth round pick for Amari Cooper. Fifth and a sixth round pick to get Jerry Judy. I mean, that's just a good job of acquiring talent. And so hopefully he can play somewhat close to the level he did in his third year. I think there's a lot of people that might say he checked out last season,

which, you know, hard to argue. But yeah, hopefully this can rejuvenate him a little bit. It's just tough because he's not going to a place where he's going to get targets. All right, Dave, let me get your thoughts on the Steelers now. Let's discuss that. Give me your fantasy takeaways of Russell Wilson joining the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I think Russ is there because of what Jamie talked about. He's got a cheap contract, so it's an easy decision for them to bring in an experienced quarterback, a guy who's still probably one of the top 30 passers walking the planet. And I would just imagine that they're going to ask him to just not screw things up. If they scheme them up nicely, just like Sean Payton did last year, he'll be fine. I don't expect him to have huge numbers. I'm not expecting him to turn George Pickens or whoever else is catching passes there into a fantasy stud, but I think he'll be okay. And as long as he goes to camp and he knows what he's doing, he's going to be the starter right

from the jump. I'm not excited about him. I'm not going to target him in drafts. I'm not going to reach for any of the wide receivers in the draft. And I think there might actually end up being some decent value on both Najee Harrison, Jalen Warren. I think the Steelers are still going to be a team that wants to run the ball first and foremost. They were last year. Arthur Smith was known for in Atlanta. He veered in that direction year over year in Atlanta running more than throwing. I would expect the Falcons, the Steelers, to improve the offensive line and try to be balanced running the football. And so Najee is the one that I'm kind of interested in.

It's got to be at the right price. I don't know what the best ADP is for that. We can check what his ADP was in our mock so far. Same thing with Jalen Warren. I'd like to see where they go in ADP. And if I like that ADP, I'll target them, but I'm not particularly interested in targeting the other players in Pittsburgh. It's really going to depend where Pickens ADP falls. Like we've just talked about it. He was

going behind JSN and Christian Watson. It seems like most people have a pretty negative opinion of Russell Wilson and what they expect. I just ran a Twitter poll this morning. Who's it currently a better NFL quarterback, Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson? And Wilson's just barely winning that poll. And Watson's been awful the last two years. So if there's not a boost for a big boost for Pickens based on this news, if he's still around six pick, then I'm going to draft all of the George Pickens. He is the guy that I want as my number three wide receiver, where it gets really difficult if he's drafted as a top 20 or 25 guy. I still think what he did, especially at the end of last year with Mason Rudolph and the fact that he's entering year three,

that he has top 12 potential this season. But he might be a boom-bust number three wide receiver too. You can't draft him based on that potential. Well, I mean, I think you look at what he was able to accomplish last year and then getting the quarterback upgrade, because look, this is the best quarterback that he's played with. And, you know, Adam talked about this when we were kind of speculating on where he could go in terms of Russell Wilson. And so Pickens has nine career touchdowns. Courtland Sun just caught 10 from, from Russ, you know, so if there is just a slight touchdown boost,

he had five last year in Pickens. You know, if he can get to eight plus, that's going to be fantastic if he's still a thousand yard receiver and getting 60 plus catches, you know? So for the value that you're getting, I think you're going to see, just based on how receivers get drafted,

he's probably going to be in that round six to seven range would be my guess for Pickens. You know, I agree with you, Heath. If he starts to go in that round five range, then we're starting to get maybe a little bit too pricey because people are just expecting a huge boost from him. But year three, the talent that he has,

you know, hopefully he's got his, his, his motivation on, right. Cause we're getting to a point where, you know, you're gonna start hearing contract stuff for George Pickens if he does have a

big type of season. So this could be a huge year for him, but again, you just don't want to overvalue it. Deontay Johnson's the fun one to try to figure out because two amazing seasons with Roethlisberger two unbelievably disappointing seasons the last two years he was better last season clearly than he was the year before when he didn't score a touchdown uh just over I believe 12 PPR points per game so can he get back to any level of of quality production he's the one that scares me more you know so um still still I think a number

three receiver based on the volume that he'll get, but not somebody that you should be targeting as a definite starter. You'd rather draft this guy as a number four receiver if you can, if you're going heavy on receivers. But his reception total should still be decent. Wouldn't be surprising if he leads the team in reception. But it was funny, just looking at, you know, I wrote the story on Russell Wilson at midnight last night after this happened,

and he played 30 games in Denver, 15 each year. How many 20-plus point games did he have in those 30? Six. Higher. Yeah, 12. Dave? I'm going to say in between six and 12. I'll say nine.

Okay, 10. 10 and 30 games that he had 20-plus points. Do you know what Arthur Smith's best quarterback was in Atlanta from a points-per-game standpoint? The majority of the stars. Was it Matt Ryan in 21? Matt Ryan in 21. But I don't think even he had 20 fantasy points per game.

What the highest points per game was total for their tenure during the year. 17.8. 17.8? What do you say, Heath? 17.9. 14.5 by Matt Ryan in 2021. Now, obviously, when you go back to him as a coordinator, the last two years he had with Ryan Tannehill was 25 points per game and 21.5, I believe it was, in the two seasons that he had with Tannehill,

2020 and 2021 um so yeah he has the potential to get quality production from his quarterback but you know the the guys in atlanta and again you know take it for what it's worth you know tan hill was still in his prime uh ryan was definitely at the end and you know ritter and and mariota were just what they are so you know he can still coax a good season out of Russ, but I don't think anybody should be expecting, you know, 22, 23-plus points per game. You know, 19.7 like he got last year is probably what you should expect. Yeah, Russell Wilson was just outside. He was basically 12th, 13th per game in both formats,

tied with Jared Goff. We talked about this a few weeks ago. I've talked about it a lot. He had a lot of rushing yards last year. So, I don't know. It's a little bit hard to predict if you look at his career, his rushing total. One thing on that note, Arthur Smith's quarterbacks every year except for the Matt Ryan year have had at least four rushing touchdowns, four to seven, four, four, six, seven. So I would expect he's going to rush for three or four touchdowns for sure.

He's rushed for three touchdowns each of the last two years. It's been a part of his game forever. So absolutely agree with that. Right. I do feel like people think that Pickens is the good fit for Russell Wilson. It's probably based on last year. But last year was a really weird year

for Russell Wilson. It was actually a career low in air yards per pass attempt by far. Sean Payton. Yeah, he got Sean Payton. But he did throw some really nice deep balls, and he connected mostly with Cortland Sutton on those and people are envisioning that I think with George Pickens it's worth noting though if Deontay Johnson's does stick around Johnson he changed as a receiver last year his ADOT was way up he was used downfield more and his yards per catch I mean he had a career high 14.1 yards per catch his previous career high deontay johnson was 11.5 yards per catch his

career high yards per target too so hopefully he showed that he can be more than just the just the i want to say underneath but you know short area guy um deontay was a little little better than last year and just one last thing and this might be part of why i might sound a little more optimistic about russell wilson like david, if they can scheme him up as well as Sean Payton did last year, I don't really feel like Sean Payton did Russell Wilson any favors last year. Like throwing 35-40% of his passes to running backs and just basically running the Sean Payton-Drew Brees offense with Russell Wilson, who he obviously hated in the second half of the season, didn't he want on the team.

I do think there's a chance that Pittsburgh actually does a better job of designing an offense based around Russell Wilson's skills than Peyton did last year. I kind of felt that way until I watched those two games of tape and saw how many times Russell Wilson did not throw to open receivers and it drove me crazy.

So I actually kind of have more faith in Sean Payton, but that roster looks horrible. So I'm not bullish on the Broncos or anything, but I only watched two games. It might've been a, just a small sample, but I got to take a break here. And when we come back,

I'm going to tell you about a brand new podcast that you're going to be interested in. And we're going to talk more about Jerry Judy. I think what does it mean for amari cooper you know amari cooper in like i don't know the last 10 games of the season or so was actually out targeted by david nojoku now he's got another uh player to take away some targets so we'll discuss that and anything else that's come up recently around the nfl we'll be right back on fantasy football today i am so dreading groceries this week why you can skip it

oh what just like that just like that how about dinner with my third cousin skip it prince fluffy's favorite treats skippable midnight snacks skip my neighbor's nightly saxophone practices uh nope you're on your own there could have have skipped it, should have skipped it. Skip to the good part and get groceries, meals, and more delivered right to your door on Skip. Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks

and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Is there anything else we wanted to say about Russell Wilson of the Steelers, Deontay Johnson? I guess give me like a round

that you draft him right now. If he stays on the team, Deontay. Yeah. Yeah. Two rounds after pickings running. Someone will take them before then. I don't like that. I think round eight at the absolute earliest, he went three picks after pickings in our most recent mock. That's going to change. How would you rank the Seahawks and Steelers receivers right now? And you know what? Let's throw Chris Godwin in there as well. He's relevant. Metcalf,

Pickens, Godwin, JSN, Mockett. Where's Deontay? I'm sorry. Metcalf, Pickens, Godwin, Deontay i'm sorry metcalf pickens godwin deontay jsn lock it i feel like taking jsn over deontay might be like the cool kid thing to do those two i might have to let's see where deontay is first if he stays in pittsburgh

yeah i might roll the dice on JSN in a second. Yeah. That's probably the smart thing. The thing I can't get past. I was surprised by this last year was the second most targets for Tyler Locke in his career. Like it's not like it's amazing. Yeah.

He led the team. Yeah. He just didn't have as many downfield plays. Yeah. That was interesting. He's never been a huge target guy, I guess, but what do you have?

Like 120, 122 last 22. I think. Yeah. yeah that was interesting he's never been a huge target guy i guess but what do you have like 120 122 last 22 his career was 139 yeah like the jsn jsn is going to definitely project last out of that group but by the time we're drafting the end of this group i think i'm probably taking the upside of jsn over lockett and dionte what if you you throw Judy into this group? Where does he go? He's like round 14. Yeah. That's so sad. Well, yeah.

I mean, he's earned it. Exactly. There are some things under the hood that look good for Jerry Judy, though. It's just he doesn't earn enough targets. But, I mean, look, I can tell you real quick why I was so excited about Jerry Judy going into this season because, first of all, he just had a good 2022, even if you don't Acer stat it. What was he, 2022?

He was a top 24 receiver per game, Jerry Judy, 22nd in PPR, 20th in non-PPR, but if you took away the three games where he barely played, he averaged 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game. That was like Jalen Waddell, Devante Smith good. And that was with him being second fiddle to Courtland Sutton early in the year. This is 2022, not three. And then everything changed.

And it was just, it was like Judy just took over as the number one guy and showed what he was capable of doing. And I thought that would carry over into 2023. It did not. And actually, it might surprise you if you go look at the Broncos stats, but Judy and Sutton had very similar numbers except the touchdowns. Touchdowns were 10 for Sutton and two for Judy. And again, I saw two plays in two games where Jerry Judy should have had

at least a 35-yard touchdown catch, and Wilson didn't see him on one, and he made a bad throw that Judy dropped on the other. So I think there's, you know, I don't think this is the right situation for him to flourish. It's just a terrible destination for him. Right, right. That's the problem. You know, even if he is that good,

how good could he possibly be in this situation? So I get it. I get it. And clearly the compensation speaks to that. Like, you know, not a lot of teams were probably knocking on their door if that's all that they can get. So how are you feeling about – let's stay on the Browns.

How are you feeling about Amari Cooper right now? I dropped him around. You know, so I think he said it best. It feels like this is more an indictment on where Elijah Moore is more so than Amari Cooper because of what Cooper's done and what he still should be able to do. And look, it's just adding another great weapon because they lost Donovan Peoples-Jones last year

and didn't really replace him with anything. It sucks for Cedric Tillman, who I was kind of hoping to see a little bit more of, but this is a loaded passing attack. Deshaun Watson, Adam, I know you're still hopeful for him to play at a moderately high level. If he does, I mean, with Njoku coming off the day that he had, Cooper's still playing at a high level and getting some bounce back potential from Jerry Judy.

That could be one of the better receiving cores in the league. But there's more flaws than there are, you know, things that you say, okay, this is an absolute. And so hopefully, you know, you get all these things working at, you know, in, in, you know, on the right level with each other. But yeah, it's just hard to trust Judy at this point, you know, so, and, and in terms of Cooper, you know, just another guy taking away from, like you said, in the joke, who was taking targets away from him. Will Deshaun Watson support him to the same level that he's been at? It just feels like he's trending closer to a number three receiver than he was to a top

15 guy prior to this. But I like that. We're going to be able to draft him at a discount now, because before this trade, he was to a top 15 guy prior to this. But I like that. We're going to be able to draft him at a discount now, because before this trade, he was one of those guys that like you took as a low end wide receiver too, but you didn't love it. And now the, a full round later,

I, it makes me feel better about drafting a Mark Cooper. I don't see Judy coming in and being a huge threat. I still think that Cooper is the top wide receiver in Cleveland. I think Deshaun is still going to throw to him the most. He averaged almost 18 PPR points per game when Deshaun Watson completed his games. There were only five of them last year. That's separate from this, but I'm still fairly encouraged by Amari Cooper.

And now that there's a discount involved, I'm going to be much more inclined to get him around that round five, six. In those rankings we did earlier, he's right squarely in between DK Metcalf and George Pickens Cooper. Yeah. Okay. Yeah.

I might prefer Pickens by the time we get to draft season. It's kind of that JSN Deontay Johnson conversation. Like Pickens is certainly a lot more fun. Well, Cooper is what? Will be 30? He will be 30 by the time the season starts. 30, yeah. Yeah, the thing that we have to always remember with Pickens

is they're just not going to throw the ball that much. It's going to be hard for him. He's not a consistent player to begin with. And two of his best games last year, he had five, Pickens had five great games last year. Two of them were without Deontay Johnson. 500-yard games last year. Two of them were without Deontay Johnson.

Then he had like a 75-yard game without Deontay Johnson. So this guy was completely useless, basically, with Johnson until Mason Rudolph came. And then in week 18, so week 16 and 17, George Pickens goes crazy. Remember that long play against the Browns? He has two enormous, he scored like 55 points combined in those two games. Week 18, he had zero catches. And I don't even think he had a target in that game.

Well, I mean, you know, it's hard to say, okay, what will this offense completely look like? You know, we could clearly look at Arthur Smith's track record. He got some great production out of A.J. Brown, a young receiver that was similar. I don't want to say similar type profile to George Pickens, but an explosive type of player, clearly. He got good production from a receiver,

and I think Calvin Ridley was off to a good start before he left the team in Matt Ryan's final season, the first year for there. But he got great production from Kyle Pitts when he had a veteran quarterback that he trusted in Matt Ryan. You know, so if Russell Wilson can still play, I can't imagine they're going there to say, all right, we're going to feature Deontay Johnson. You know, like it doesn't feel like that's the best way to run this offense. Now we can certainly say Arthur Smith has not done the best things for his offense. Cause that's been, you know, sort of proven, but I think there's just such upside for George Pickens. Oh yeah. Hell yeah. I mean, like I said, third best yards per target first and yards per catch.

He doesn't necessarily like Tyler Lockett, right. Doesn't necessarily need a ton of targets. Lockett, I think, cause he caught so many of them pickings probably because he's going to make big plays on them. But if we expect the ADP for Cooper to be around five, let's say in pickings to be around six, I'd rather wait the round and take pickings for sure. Oh, that's interesting.

Dave, do you feel that way? Not sure if I feel that way in full PPR, half PPR, non PPR. Uh, I, we might see pickings go ahead of Cooper in those formats.

And I don't, man, the other thing, and we're, this is changing gears from wide receiver to quarterback, but I was kind of thinking Russell will Pittsburgh was going to just stick with picket and Rudolph. There's now like, is Kirk cousins, the biggest winner actually. Cause there's no, there's a lot of teams that need quarterbacks in the Is Kirk Cousins the biggest winner, actually? Because he's not going to go to Pittsburgh? No, there's a lot of teams that need quarterbacks. And it sounds like the Vikings and the Falcons are fighting over Cousins. Right.

Yeah, it's not fantasy-wise. It's just like the Raiders don't have a quarterback. The Vikings don't have a quarterback. The Falcons don't have a quarterback. I think he's deciding between two. Yeah. There could be a surprise. Like you said, the Raiders could throw a big bag at him and he decides to go there,

but it feels as if it's Minnesota or Atlanta for him. Okay, so wrapping up the Cleveland discussion here. It seems like I know where you guys want to take Cooper. I was having trouble coming up with a Evan Ingram. Sorry, Evan Ingram was the name I kept thinking of, but a Njoku or... So I figured Njoku's a loser here, right? But who are you dropping him behind?

Right? I mean, he's still, he's been a top 10 guy per game two years in a row. I think he was sixth last year. So I'm going to move him. Kemet? Yep. I expect Chicago to add another receiver there.

I'm going to keep Njoku where I had him. I had him 10th at tight end, as it was. Yeah. One guy I had behind him was Hawkinson. And I think I'd probably rather just have somebody else to play early in the year and then have Hawkinson. Sure. Draft Hawkinson and then take another tight end a few rounds later.

Just because they're relevant. You might be Njoku who you get. How would you rank Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson? Watson, Mayfield, Wilson. Wilson, Watson, Mayfield? I've got Watson, Mayfield, Wilson. They're all behind.

Goff, Cousins, and for now, Stafford and Rogers. Okay. Yeah, I mean, it is like Watson. He just runs. You know, Jamie, you said I was hopeful for him, but it's really more because of the rushing. You know, he's probably, if I had to guess,

450 or more rushing yards. And that's just, that might be 400 more than Jared Goff. You know, it's just a huge, huge. But it's probably only 75 or 100 more than Russell Wilson. Yeah, yeah. But they both, I think, you could make the case to take over Goff. I don't think I would

because I could see Goff having a much bigger touchdown season if they just stopped handing the ball off inside the five every time they get there. But it's just a huge edge where they could go out and play so much worse than Jared Goff in actual football

and still average about the same amount of fantasy points per game. All right, so to the Buccaneers and Mike Evans now. Round three? Round four? 12-team league? Right in that range, yeah. He's getting drafted in round three. The history will tell you.

That's what most people will draft a guy coming off the season that he just had staying in the same place and he's not coming off any injury situations you know his quarterback the same you know i i think the the you know we'll see what dave canalis's loss means to this offense um as a coordinator you know going to be the new head coach in Carolina. But the fact that they're running it back is a positive, I think, for Mike Evans. And look, we had these concerns going into last year, losing Tom Brady. What would the volume be?

Would he still be able to stay healthy? And every now and then, there are these guys that come along that just defy age and are able to have successful late career runs. And he might just be one of those guys. But I'm not going to be drafting him in round three, just because of how I feel about players at this age. And I'll probably be wrong again. I hope I'm wrong again,

because I love watching Mike Evans play, but, um, you know, he'll probably still get his thousand yards. It's going to be a matter of, can he have his sixties and of his career with double digits, touchdowns?

I'm going to take the under. Right. I'm going to bring this up again, just because just in case people did not hear it. The first few times I brought it up, the last seven games of the season, Chris Godwin had six more targets than Mike Evans. He had nine more catches and he had 65 more yards,

but he had two fewer touchdowns and he had fewer end zone targets and all that. And then in the postseason, I think Evans was better than Godwin. Oh, no, no, that was including the postseason. I'm sorry. So, yeah, including the postseason, last seven games, Godwin had more targets, more catches, more yards than Mike Evans. And I do think that lines up with actually better play from Baker Mayfield who kind of finished strong.

So, you know, who's a better value? Let's take a look at where they went. Mike Evans went 36th overall, last pick of round three. Chris Godwin went in the middle of round six. Who's a better value, Godwin or Evans, PPR? PPR, based on that, it's definitely Godwin. Remember Heath said he took Chris Godwin in his draft with the idea of Mike Evans being gone.

Yeah. I think Godwin's probably a round seven pick now. Yeah. And that makes him even sweeter. But in this draft, you'd say Evans was a better value at 36 compared to Godwin in round six? Yes. Yeah, and around three.

I'm not sure if I agree. Go on. I think if – what was the reason for God, when getting more targets and playing better, was he healthier? Cause there was talk around that time when he started to spike that he was playing through something and maybe he just started to feel better. And the bucks were like,

all right, let's get them more involved. What were his blitz over that stretch slot and playing outside? Yeah. I'm looking at that right now. Yeah. Like we need to do a little bit of research. We need to see how we look compared to like earlier in the season. But if that right now. Yeah, we need to do a little bit of research. We need to see how he looked compared to earlier in the season.

But if that's the Godwin that we should expect this coming year, he's going to be a tremendous value. The thing that I kind of like looking at Godwin's value is if Mike Evans does miss any time at his age, anything does creep up or he has to, you know, miss any games. Godwin was an absolute monster. The one game that Evans left last year. And I think, you know, I don't know how much hell factored into it. There was the complaining after he had no catches against Carolina,

you know, first time in whatever stretch it was. That is when it started. That was it. I can't find anything in terms of slot that really jumps out or anything like that, but that is actually a great point. He had no catches, and then after that, that's when there was the momentum shift where Godwin was getting more targets than Evans. Yeah, and I think his wife might have complained on social media. Yeah, that was part of it too.

So it could just be Baker trying to make everybody happy because Evans was playing still at a high level. You keep saying Godwin was out-targeting Evans. It's not like Evans fell off. He was still productive. He just wasn't at the same level from a target standpoint. Can they both coexist? I'd like to see Godwin back in the slot a little more.

Maybe that speaks to Trey Palmer getting a bigger role and being more flexible with their offense. But there's a lot to like about Chris Godwin's value still, especially since he's a little bit younger and still, I think, productive enough. There were three games at the end of last year where Godwin had at least 13.9 PPR points in each one of them. In two of them, Evans had at least 15.7. In the third one, he had 10. They can absolutely coexist.

And just a little context to the last seven games. That was pretty much an immediate response to the zero target game. 11 targets, 12 targets, 10 targets in the next three games. You look at his last three games, six for 51, four for 45, four for 40. It was like, is it Godwin's? Yeah, so it's like there was like, is it Godwin's? Yeah.

So it's like there was a short-term spike right after that. But the last three games were pretty much what he was most of the year. Also, I said zero targets. I think you may have said it was zero catches. It was three targets for zero catches. And a rushing touchdown. Right, and a rushing touchdown against Carolina. I think, and the one thing, just to tie in Baker,

because you said he was playing well at the end of the season, four of his last five games in the regular season, 20-plus fantasy points. So he was starting to play well. Obviously had a good playoff game against Philly. He's interesting. Again, losing Canales is, I think, going to be something that impacts them a little bit.

We've seen some coordinator movement last year and how that changed some quarterbacks. But for a number two quarterback, super flex, two QB leagues, he's not a bad mid-round pick that you'll be able to get. They got Liam Cohen to replace Canales. He's a McVay disciple. I don't believe that Baker and Cohen worked together when Baker was in LA. I think Cohen was in college then. But if it's the same sort of principles, Mayfield should assimilate quickly. Okay, I'm going to do a segment that might not be helpful at all when we come right back from

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It's definitely not that. Don't overthink how you hydrate. Life's full of choices. Smart water is a simple one. All right, we're back here on Fantasy Football Day. Here's like things I kind of want to be feeling right now. Okay. It's like these are my gut feelings. All right.

My gut feeling is I don't want to draft Mike Evans because I am terrified of Baker Mayfield's extremely inconsistent career. And the fact that I think Godwin will be more involved this next upcoming year than he was in 2023. That's number one. Number two, I want to be feeling this. Tyler Lockett is basically done and JSN is going to be a steal. And Metcalf might be also if he falls. I can't go

into the season like that. But why would they pay him? Why did the Patriots pay Hunter Henry? Why did they pay Kendrick Moore? They need weapons. It's not like they're just going to go, okay, we're going to get every guy we want in the draft. They got to draft a quarterback in the first round, so they're going to not be able to invest in a high-end wide receiver

until who knows what's available for them. You're talking about the Patriots or the Seahawks here? The Patriots. Yeah, I don't know. Sentimentality? I mean, Lockett spent his whole career there, and I feel like he still can play. He's good, but he's going to be 32,

and there are very few receivers who are good at that age but it's not about him being good it's just the the the speed bump to making jsn great yeah i get right i'm not saying great but i think i think he could have been great if locker was gone yeah yeah yeah i know and again it's bad he misses any time metcalf misses any time, we saw it last year. JSN was very productive, but you'll get a good value on JSN now, and hopefully it pays off.

But there could have been, the ceiling could have been consistently better if Lockett was gone. Not disputing that at all, but I'm just saying, I wonder if this is actually good news for JSN because now he's going to be a steal. Again, this is just like a thought in my head.

I think it's possible that Tyler Lockett is just on his last legs and that JSN becomes the best receiver on the team and that this ends up being a good – if you're one of those bet-on-talent people, that it will work out for JSN. I want to believe that in my bones, Dave Richard. I think that's a little bit easier to believe if JSN had a... And it's probably true in terms of the talent.

But it's harder because it was just basically one season with JSN in college. Yeah. Right. Yeah, but there was so much smoke about him. It was three years. Playing well with, I mean, his one big season did come with some other great prospects. Remember his last year at Ohio State, he barely played the year.

He had an injury. I'm looking at his metrics from last year. Yards per outrun was low. Explosion rate was low. I don't love how they used him. His ADOT was 6.1. Yards per catch was 10.0. I'd love to see them feature him more.

And just because they gave Tyler Lockett a restructured contract doesn't mean that they have to force feed him the football. I think that there's some hope for JSN and that the coaching staff there sees that they've got a receiver who's better than the stats said and better than the opportunity that he had. Hopefully the quarterback recognizes it as well. What about my Baker Mayfield concerns? Legitimate, completely. It makes me want to run right now to watch Godwin in the second half of last year and see if he really looked good, then I think there's something significant to that. I don't think I would bet any money at all on who's going to be better just as a passer this year, Baker or Russ or Watson or Geno Smith to bring that one in there too. Yeah. Those guys are pretty big mystery boxes.

Yeah. Someone says, as they say, go with your gut, but in this case, go against Adam's gut. I think that was about the Seahawks, guys. I also gave a pretty hot take last week on Beyond the Box score, guys. Rye bread is disgusting. Rye bread is a terrible bread. You got to be in the mood for it. It's like

pumpernickel. You like cinnamon bagels. Who doesn't like cinnamon raisin bagels? They're delicious. You could knock the combo, but not the actual bagel. Those are good. You like rye bread? Like Dave said, you got to be in the mood for it.

What mood are you in to have rye bread? I want something disappointing today. I've had such a great morning. I have to knock it down a peg. Let's get some rye bread. No, I mean, there's a certain and specific distinct taste to rye bread. Bad. I don't mind using it when I get a pastrami.

Right. Corned beef on rye, pastrami on rye. Yeah. I will say Boulevard had a rye on rye on rye beer that was delicious a few years ago. So, yeah. Four things I hate. You know what I love, though? I love the NBA. Even when the knicks score 73 points in 2023 before which just happened last night that was pathetic but um we'd like to extend a warm welcome

to the newest podcast in our cbs sports family it's that month that we know you're craving hoops but maybe not just on the college level so beyond the arc is a brand new show featuring daily NBA discussions with hosts John Gonzalez, Bill Ryder, and Ashley Nicole Moss, as well as regular appearances from NBA champion Avery Johnson. Download and follow Beyond the Arc wherever you find this podcast, Beyond the Arc. All right, let's go through the rest of the notes here the jaguars acquired mac jones for a sixth round pick um hunter henry back to the patriots three years with 15.8 million dollars guaranteed and just a couple things that i'll probably repeat at our next show but you know see a guy get a get a contract it's hardly ever what it looks like on paper. Teams can get out of it early and whatnot.

The guaranteed money is the most important thing. And also I'm going to say a lot of this team signed this guy, this team signed this guy. It's not official until the new, the league year starts on Wednesday. But I don't feel like saying they're going to sign or whatever. So just deal with it. Anyways,

anybody have any thoughts on Hunter Henry going back to the Patriots? Yeah, I do. I mean, look, with the right quarterback, he could be a waiver wire guy during the season, but nobody's drafting. The Jaguars are signing Mitch Morse, and they re-signed guard Ezra Cleveland. So shoring up the interior of their line.

And Cleveland was the guy they got from Minnesota mid-season. So this is good. This is good. Yes, Jacksonville got Cleveland from Minnesota mid-season. So this is good. This is good. Yes, Jacksonville got Cleveland from Minnesota. That's very – Yeah. Was Mitch Morse good last year? I don't know.

They talk up Mitch Morse like he was good last year. I know he missed time. He's had some concussion issues. I will get you a PFF grade in 30 seconds. It's funny how long he's been in the league that I think one of the insiders tweeted, he's being reunited with Doug Peterson, his former offense coordinator in Kansas City. I was like, my God. So I'm looking at ESPN's win rates, and he was in the top 10.

He was 10th among interior offensive linemen in run block win rate. 14th among centers in pass block grade per PFF. Significantly lower in run blocking last year. And Jacksonville was just terrible with run blocking. They were, you know, if you look at PFF, you look at this win rate that I'm looking at now, you just want to Google pass block win rate, run block win rate. You'll see ESPN has a chart. Jaguars just want to Google pass block win rate, run block win rate. You'll see ESPN has a chart.

Jaguars were 27th in run block win rate, 29th in pass block win rate. I think they were even worse in run blocking in their PFF grade. So they definitely need help. Rams re-signing guard

Kevin Dotson. Teron Armstead, Dolphins left tackle, is expected to return and not retire. And then on defense, Fletcher Cox is retiring, but the Eagles re-signed defensive end Brandon Graham.

The Chiefs are bringing back Drew Tranquil, linebacker, and of course, Chris Jones. Five-year deal with almost 100 million guaranteed, 95 million guaranteed for Chris Jones. Baltimore signing defensive tackle Justin Matabike, who they put a franchise tag on. He's getting a huge deal. Chicago, same thing with Jalen Johnson,

their star cornerback. Houston signing defensive tackle Fulorunzo Fatukasi, who went to the Jaguars, was a little bit of a disappointment with the Jaguars. Now he will stay in the division and go to the Houston Texans.

I wish you guys a wonderful lunch and I will talk to you later this afternoon, most likely. If we don't have a podcast this afternoon, it means it was a boring day in free agency. So let's hope we're talking to you later. Let's predict. What do we expect?

Calvin Ridley back to the Jaguars. Ooh. They can't do that till the 13th, officially. But they could agree to it, no? I mean, it could be- They could agree to do it. Nothing can actually happen. I think we're doing it.

You can re-sign your own right now. Yeah, you can re-sign. But if they do it now, the Falcons are a higher pick. They'd have to have a wink-not agreement. I think we're doing Saquon to the Eagles later today. Wow. I'll go Derek Henry to the Ravens. Okay.

All right, Dave, you got a prediction here? I got enough. Let's just get to it. Okay. All right, everybody, thanks got a prediction here or just crap on mind? I got enough. Let's just get to it. Okay. All right, everybody, thanks for tuning in. We'll talk to you later on Fantasy Football.