Fantasy Football Today - Saints-Bucs Recap, Five Big Topics (12/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 20, 2021

Is Tom Brady no longer a Top 12 option? Are we concerned about Alvin Kamara's role? We look at the Saints-Bucs game from every angle and of course talk about rest of season outlooks for Ronald Jones and Antonio Brown ... News and notes (13:40) with more waiver wire RBs to consider. And then we get into our Five Big Topics. It's really Five Big Backfields today beginning with the Cardinals (21:10) and Dolphins (26:00) backfields. What kinds of splits did we see for James Conner and Chase Edmonds? Are we buying Duke Johnson as the lead RB for Miami? ... People seem nervous about Cordarrelle Patterson, but should they be? We'll look at the Falcons (30:30), Cowboys (35:00) and Packers (42:00) backfields to finish the show. Are Ezekiel Elliott and A.J. Dillon worth starting in Week 16? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is touchdown! Oh, he's done it again! Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Welcome to your Monday afternoon edition of Fantasy Football. Today, it was the first week of the Fantasy Playoffs for many of you. And Chris, looks like the NFL delivered a pretty lousy week at the wrong time in terms of scoring. Yeah, yeah. According to the NFL Network's research team on Twitter last night, I saw this.

There were only 40 touchdowns scored on Sunday. That was the fewest for a game with, or for a Sunday with at least 10 games on the schedule since 1994. So if your team stunk, you weren't i am i have one league where i went 14 and 0 in the regular season but we don't have a buy so i am playing for my life and i had joe mix and jamar chase and t higgins so that went well um did you lose i am still projected to win oh good uh Because I am projected for 84 points and my opponent is projected for 75

in a half PPR league. The other game with the number two and seven seeds in that league, I believe neither team is projected to score more than 80. Wow. Yeah, it was that kind of week and maybe you get a reprieve.

Maybe if you start it, I don't know if he can overcome Brady. That is like next level bad. But if you did have Tom Brady, can you trust him going forward? That's where we're going to start. Coming up on today's show, we will recap New Orleans 9 and Tampa Bay 0. We'll give you the news and notes and tell you about all the Bucs injuries. Plus, major news for the Chargers.

You might be looking at Justin Jackson andson and josh kelly this week at houston we'll tell you all about that hopefully not we'll see what the new protocols bring but austin eckler is on the reserve covet list can i add one more note about this week's game so far yes hold on one second uh our big topics today it's just going to be five big backfields basically the cardinals backfield the dolphins the Falcons people are pretty down on Cordero Patterson right now the Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers that's what we're going to talk about those backfields what would you like to add about Sunday so this is something that I've been looking up over the past like two months or so now and I find it very interesting I seem to be alone in

that but that's fine so if you just take passing production for quarterbacks this season, the average is 16.9 points per game per quarterback. So per every team's quarterback production. That's fantasy points. Fantasy points. And that's six points per passing touchdown. Yes. Week one was 20.7 points.

Through the first eight weeks of the season. There was only one game below 17 and only two games below 19. In the last seven weeks, there has only been one game above 17. And this week so far, quarterbacks are averaging

13.98 fantasy points per game just from their passing production. That is the lowest per game for a week by more than half a point so far this season. And I believe that is the lowest in at least the last 10 seasons. I would have to look up that data. But I looked it up earlier this season. I don't remember a week being worse than that so far. You're not the only one interested.

I think it's really fascinating stuff. You've done great research on that. The ADOT has gone down, and these offenses are not really creating the big plays. That's just been a theme for the teams that are struggling. Are they getting big plays? They were early. They're not now.

I mentioned the Cowboys have fallen into that category, specifically in the passing game, but also for the Cowboys. Whenever Zeke touches the ball, you're not getting a big play. So, yeah, it's really fascinating stuff. And right now, if you have Aaron Rodgers, you're feeling pretty good. You have a guy who's just kicking everyone's butt. Mahomes, Herbert, they look invincible at the moment.

Well, that's so silly to say about Mahomes. It's just two big games in a row for him, but it was a real struggle against the Chargers. But we'll see what happens going forward. All right, let's talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints. First shutout after 255 consecutive starts in which Tom Brady did not get shut out.

He puts up a zero. His team puts up a zero on Sunday night. Drew Brees is the only player who had a longer streak. He went 304 games without being shut out. I mean, you know, Tom Brady, the way he's going, he could start that streak right up again and still get to 304. All right, so what do you think about it? So, look, Fournette's going to miss a game or two,

according to Ian Rappaport, with a hamstring. Godwin's out for the season with a sprained MCL, out for the regular season, likely to come back in the playoffs. And don't see an update on Evans, but he left with a hamstring injury. So Antonio Brown, if you want to put him on your team and he's available, he's got to be, to me, the number one player to add. He's 78% rostered. If he's available on waivers in your league,

he's absolutely the number one ad there's no question about that um you know we'll we'll see what his form looks like after three games off but my expectation at this point is mike evans is not going to play this week he was actually ruled out earlier than uh chris codwin in that game so take from that what you will but i i think um yeah i think antonio brown's gonna be i mean a top 15 wide receiver rest of season he was probably that on a per game basis before that he was oh yeah before the injury and then before going on the covid or before his suspension excuse me so yeah i think they kind of have to use him now and i I think Ronald Jones is probably a top 15 running back for next week.

And yeah, based on this game, like the saints have had Tom Brady's number over the last two seasons. It's just been a bad matchup. I think he has five interceptions entering yesterday. He had two more turnovers and interception and lost fumble. He was still averaging 21.6 fantasy points and six point per passing touchdown leagues

against the Saints in the two seasons with the Buccaneers, including the playoff game last year. But obviously that's really, that's solid for most quarterbacks. That's bad for Tom Brady. So yeah, it's just a bad matchup. And the fact that he lost his, what, three of his top four targets? Well, it really, it's his top three for the season. They were the top three in catches.

But, you know, when you consider Gronk, he's probably ahead of Fournette. But Fournette, I mean, Fournette is a huge part of their passing game. And he just seems to be a lot better than Ronald Jones at catching the ball. And maybe Keyshawn Vaughn, too. Not sure. He had a bad drop yesterday. He did, yeah. So I don't think Brady would be a lock

to be a top 12 quarterback if Antonio Brown were not playing, but I expect him to play. So I think between Brown and Gronk, you probably, given all the numbers that Chris just gave about quarterback play, it's probably going to be hard to get him out of the top 12,

but we'll reevaluate, obviously. That's the thing that you have to keep in mind anytime we're talking about quarterbacks right now is just the context of the league right now. Yes, you're frustrated with Dak Prescott, but who are you going to sit him for? Maybe if Lamar Jackson is out this week, maybe you sit him for Tyler Huntley.

Maybe, but probably not. Well, would you sit him for Taysom Hill, who had an equally disappointing game with seven fantasy points? He's got Miami on Monday night. Would you sit him for Tua Tunga-Vailoa, who's obviously at the Saints? No. No? I think I would really consider

it if Antonio Brown doesn't play. And I don't know for a fact that he's going to play. I mean, Bruce Arians said they're welcoming him back. Yeah. So, you know, maybe he's not up play but we're I mean Bruce Arians said they're welcoming welcoming him back yeah so you know maybe he's not welcome back that's a throwback um yeah maybe maybe he's just not up to playing shape right now but I kind of think I kind of doubt that you know they they weren't afraid to throw him in last year when he hadn't played in a year and a half. So I would suspect that they're just going to throw him back out there

and he's going to be, you know, he wasn't playing a full snap share before the injury. I wonder if that changes, but he was basically running every route. So I would expect we'll see something like that. He'll come off for, you know, some running plays, but I think he's going to be the number one wide receiver for them. I would guess at least top 20, potentially top 15. What do you think about Kamara?

Kamara had 11 carries for 18 yards, two catches for 13 yards, and Ingram has a fairly significant role. There's no question. Not as significant as Kamara's, but is Kamara... I guess I'll ask an obvious question. I'm sure the answer is yes. Is he still a must-start running back, even with Ingram? Yeah, I mean, look, this is a tough matchup.

Tampa's really good against the run. The problem is Taysom Hill doesn't really throw to the running backs all that often. I mean, in this one, Kamara did get six targets, so that's a good sign. But, you know, Tampa's the kind of team that tends to funnel targets towards running backs running backs get a lot i think they they give up the most receptions and receiving yards to running backs this season so you know the not yards i don't know i'm pretty sure the seahawks have that have that title okay um but look the problem is this offense is really bad it's way worse with tasem hill than i expected it's way worse with Taysom Hill than I expected.

It's way worse with Taysom Hill than it was with Jameis Winston. And I don't know how you expect it to get better when Taysom Hill is so awful throwing the ball. He's just really, really bad at it. Well, I think for your Camara manager, you're just hoping that their game script is to just run the ball, give him 20-plus carries, which is absolutely on the table, even though Miami's got a great run defense. But're just hoping that their game script is to just run the ball, give him 20 plus carries, which is absolutely on the table. Even though Miami's got a great run defense.

Yeah, I just can't really do that against Tampa Bay. You know, he had 11 carries for 18 yards. Right, but Mark Ingram had nine. Like, yeah, they combined for 28 yards on 20 carries. That's awful. That's dreadful. But, yeah, like Ingramram's playing 40 of the snaps pretty regularly when camara when he's active next to camara and that has really cut into camara's

workload and this season he hasn't been that hyper efficient guy he's been for most of his career because the touchdowns haven't been there as much as they have in the past the receptions are down the passing volume all around is down and so withara, you used to be able to say, well, heck, if you got 11 carries and six targets in a game, I'm expecting top 10 production from him. You can't say that anymore in this office. But there's no way he's leaving my lineup. I think that's the bottom line.

Right, right, right, yeah. Okay, and then any interest in Callaway, 36% rostered, best game of the season, season highs in targets, catches yards, six for 112 on in targets, catches, yards. Six for 112 on nine targets. No, I don't think so. Again, this passing game is low volume and bad. I mean, that's a 33% target share.

And that's what it took to have a decent game for, what, the second time all year? So no, I don't think there's any reason to be interested in Marquez Callaway. And you should definitely be interested in Ronald Jones. Four games without Leonard Fournette all year. So no, I don't think there's any reason to be interested in Marquez Calloway. And you should definitely be interested in Ronald Jones. Four games without Leonard Fournette last year. There was one game in which Fournette played one snap, so I'm including that.

Ronald Jones scored in full PPR, he scored 15.4 or more points in all four games. In non-PPR, it was 12.5 or more points in all four games. He got so many touches, got 17 or more carries in every game and six, three, two, and one catches in those four games. He may not have a huge passing downs role, but he's an absolute must roster.

Who do you think is worth your first claim? Ronald Jones or Duke Johnson? Jones at Carolina and Johnson at New Orleans. Jones for sure because I'm not or Duke Johnson? Jones at Carolina and Johnson at New Orleans. Jones for sure, because I'm not sure Duke Johnson's going to be the lead back for the Dolphins. I mean, they did add him to the active roster after having him on the practice squad, so that's a good sign. But, you know, Myles Gaskin is still there. This was the concern for me with Gaskin all along,

and it was the same thing with Mike Davis, where it's like, what if one dude has one good game on his team besides him at some point and he's not impressive? And Myles Gaskin has been pretty unimpressive this season. So it's something to worry about, I suppose, but it wouldn't shock me at all

if Myles Gaskin was back to being the lead back next week. Okay, well, that's one of the backfields we'll be breaking down when we get to our five big topics. Jacob Gibbs will join us soon. And the CBS Sports Fantasy Football Today newsletter. That's definitely not what it's called. It's just called Fantasy Football Today. That newsletter is awesome. Chris writes it up, spends a lot of time on it, gives you all the updates you need. Chris really has all the injury updates that I don't even see. He's got the quotes from the coaches. It's like, when did that happen? So check out the newsletter. Go to cbssports.com slash newsletter or

newsletters. And we have a bunch of them, but Fantasy Football Today will be the one that interests you the most. Get it right to your inbox for free every day. News and notes, Joe Mixon. Still don't have an update on him. I'm guessing it's not a huge deal. He came back in the game, but Samajip Hiram could be playing. On he came back in the game but samajip he did

he come back in the game on the final snap of the game yeah okay but it was a kneel down so yeah he was he looked pretty agitated on the sideline it looked like he was kind of annoyed that they weren't letting him back in um but you know we've we see it seemingly every week where a guy suffers an ankle injury comes back into the game but then the next day they're like, well, we don't know if he's going to play because you know, the swelling doesn't start until, you know, after that they'll, they'll tape it up and you know,

you'll be able to play, but that doesn't mean he'll be able to play this week. So I think, I think Samaj P Ryan is probably ahead of Duke Johnson for me in the waiver. I would say Jeff Wilson, Samaj P Pirine. He actually did this yesterday.

Wilson's interesting. He's got a Thursday game. That's less time for Mitchell to come back. And it sounds like the knee is the more pressing concern for Wilson. He hasn't cleared the concussion protocol yet. For Mitchell, yeah. For Mitchell, yeah. So, yeah, I would go Wilson, Samadji Pirine, Duke Johnson,

Tyler Huntley, Gabriel Davis on this week's waiver wire. If Antonio Brown is available, I don't know if he supersedes all of them. He might, just because wide receivers are kind of bad right now. It's hard to pass up Ronald Jones, I guess. And it's hard to pass up Pir Ryan if you knew mix them or out, but you are talking about potentially you said top 15. I don't think you disagree with this potentially top five wide receiver.

Sure. And Antonio Brown. Um, but this could be a freaking great waiver wire week. Uh, by the way, if the Browns win today, there will be five AFC teams that are eight and six.

That would be and three of them would be in the same division. Cincinnati, Indianapolis, the Chargers, the Bills, the Ravens,

and the Browns. Did I say five? It'd be six. Six teams would be eight and six and three of them would be in the AFC North. So Bengals, Ravens next week. Massive game.

Right now the Bengals are the four seed. The Ravens are out of the playoffs at eight and six. They're the eight seed right now. And they face off in Cincinnati this weekend. Get to the rest of the news here.

Mike Evans, hamstring. Godwin out for the rest of the regular season. Julio Jones left with a hamstring injury. Fournette is going to miss a game or two, according to the NRAP report. Phillip Lindsey and Jalen Waddell are going to be off the reserve COVID list. That's great news for the Dolphins. Malcolm Brown's also going

to practice this week, so that's all going to factor into our discussion. Three players are going on the COVID list for the Chargers. Austin Eckler, Joey Bosa, and Corey Lindsley. I think Joey Bosa is out. Oh, is he? Okay. I think that's why I saw it. He's not vaccinated? I think that's why. Yeah.

And they're at Houston. This is not the best, but it's right I saw. He's not vaccinated? I think that's what I saw. Yeah. And they're at Houston. This is not the best, but it's right up there. Probably Jets, Texans, maybe Lions. Those are the three that come to mind. Best running back matchup. So, you know, Jackson, do you prefer Jackson to Kelly? I think you have to, based on what we've seen. Not just, you know, Thursday night, which was really impressive from Jackson,

but just throughout their careers, Joshua Kelly really hasn't shown anything. He was a third-round pick, but most third-round pick running backs, this is something that we kind of forget when we get excited about rookie running backs, is if you actually look at history, most third-round running backs, I think it's something like 55% don't even get 100 carries in a season in their careers. I think that was over the last 10 seasons. Yeah. Justin Jackson's just looked a lot better in their time in the NFL.

We've seen him. There was one game, I think, three years ago towards the end of the season where he had a really big game in Melvin Gordon's absence. So, yeah, I think Justin Jackson's absolutely the guy to add. The problem is Kelly had a carry at the Chiefs four last week. He had a carry at the Chiefs one-yard line last week. He fumbled. Yeah, but that's the only issue.

They don't have defined roles, in my opinion. Yeah. All right. What else here? Nick Mullins is starting today for Cleveland. Cleveland is getting back safety John Johnson and offensive guard Wyatt Teller. That's big for them.

Also big news, Washington tomorrow will not have Brandon Scherff, Getting back safety John Johnson and offensive guard Wyatt Teller. That's big for them. Also big news, Washington tomorrow will not have Brandon Scherf, their best offensive lineman, but they will have their top three defensive tackles back. Will Fuller is not expected to return this season. Pat Frymuth, concussion. Rondale Moore left with an injury. Nelson Aguilar.

That's a concern. That's his second concussion of the season. Generally speaking, I think when you see a second concussion, especially I think it was only two or three weeks ago, the return to play time tends to be a little longer. Sterling Shepard Achilles, Teddy Bridgewater concussion.

Also his second of the season. A big one for IDP is San Francisco linebacker aziz al-shayer he's going to be a game time decision on thursday he has been a star in idp if he plays that'd be huge and detroit as if they're running defense couldn't uh be much to be honest with you it's not that bad they give up a lot of fantasy points though but they did lose alex anzalone i don't know the extent of his injury he's a starting linebacker for them. Usually plays a hundred percent of the snaps and he left early in yesterday's game. All right. I'm done with my spiel here. We're going to, we're going to take

a quick break. And when we come back, we've got our five big topics, our five big backfields with Jacob Gibbs, stick around more to come right now on fantasy football today. It's the season for new styles and you love to shop for jackets and boots. So when you do, always make sure you get cash back from Rakuten. And it's not just clothing and shoes. You can get cash back from over 750 stores on electronics, holiday travel, home decor, and more. It's super easy.

And before you buy anything, always go to Rakuten first. Join free at rakuten.ca. Start shopping and get your cash back sent to you by check or PayPal. Get the Rakuten app or join at Rakuten.ca. R-A-K-U-T-E-N dot C-A. Hey, there's Jacob. Hey, Jacob, what's up? Hey, guys.

Pretty crazy week we just had. Not crazy enough, actually. actually i mean kind of boring like crazy in a boring sense right you know as as chris said i guess hard to believe yeah yeah unexpected for sure i do feel bad for the tom brady managers it just yeah number one quarterback scores four fantasy points in your fantasy playoffs. It just stinks. I'm in this IDP Dynasty League, and I traded a first-round pick for Tom Brady this season.

I traded a second-round pick and another player, maybe a first-round pick for Derrick Henry. And I had Austin Eckler. You're the Rams. Yeah, things are not looking great right now. I'm currently projected to win this week still, but if I don't have Eckler next week, I'll probably be...

Oh, I do have Justin Jackson. It's fine. Oh, perfect. It's not fine. He's not nearly as good as Austin Eckler. All right, let's start our five big backfields with Arizona. Chase Edmonds, six carries for 53 yards. James Conner, eight carries for 39 yards. The team as a whole against the Lions, they ran very well.

They just only ran 15 times. So, Jacob, what are your thoughts on the Cardinals' backfield next week against the Colts, who give up the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs? Pretty solid run, Dave. It's not amazing, but even despite giving up the third fewest points, they're beatable, but they're solid. What's your thoughts on the Cardinals' backfield?

I'm not super interested in either of them in this particular matchup. They're both kind of low in RB2s, maybe flex plays. I was encouraged to see Chase Edmonds get back to pretty much his full role in terms of playing the passing downs. He was a little bit involved in the red zone. They did give the majority of the snaps to Connor there, especially from inside the 10-yard line. But, yeah, it was basically in terms of the usage,

it was what we had seen from this backfield in the past before Edmonds got hurt. I wish we had a bit of a larger sample size. I wish they would have been leading the game like we expected to. I don't know for sure if I trust what we saw this week, but I think if you are an Edmonds owner, you are a little bit encouraged by what we saw because he did play quite a bit on passing downs.

One thing I'll add is they played 30 snaps in the fourth quarter, which is a shocking number. Prior to the third quarter, Connor had a 26-15 edge in snaps. It ended up being 31-29 in favor of Connor. But almost half of Edmund's snaps came in the fourth quarter when they were trailing by multiple scores. Colt McCoy came in for probably half of those snaps at least. So, yeah, this is the kind of situation where you probably can't learn anything really

because this was so out of whack with what we expected from this game but also just expect from the Cardinals. We don't expect this team to throw 50 times and run 20 times or whatever it ended up being. So it's definitely not good news for Connor. And I agree both are probably low-end RB2s or RB3s. And it's worth remembering that before Edmund's injury, James Connor was averaging 49.1 yards per game.

He was still a top 20 fantasy running back. But I don't know. Can you count on a touchdown every single week? But let me look at it. So then this is what I want to get to. And I'm going to forget. So let me just interject with this. I just mentioned Alex Anzalone starting linebacker for the Lions.

He's going to be out for the rest of the season. So just want to throw that in there. Now for these Cardinals running backs, James Connor in the first eight games of the season with Edmonds, before Edmonds got hurt, he had five catches. He had two catches for 31 yards yesterday, and they ran the same amount of routes.

Was that typical, or was Edmonds in the first eight games of the season? I'm guessing he ran a lot more routes. Did we see this week that Connor has made inroads and is now a part of the passing game, that he just simply was not before Edmonds' injury? Connor did come off the field a lot on third downs. was surprised to see his routes as high as his route involvement as high as it was but he only played 20 of the third downs overall and eight percent of the third down passing plays um we didn't have any too many offensive snaps um but i don't know i think what we saw was generally pretty similar to what we saw earlier in the year i think mostly it's just kind of a small sample size in terms of their routes actually

being so similar. I would expect, given the amount of snaps that they were playing on passing downs, I would expect Edmonds to clearly have more routes run than them going forward. I'm going to look it up and see what that share was before the injury, the first eight weeks of the season. But my guess is that it was heavily heavily weighted towards edmunds having a much bigger role there was oh i'm sorry there was a sequence where connor caught the screen pass set up first and goal at the six yard line he was in on first down he was in on second down

edmunds was in on third down and fourth down so i think that's what it is it's it's Connors got first and second down Edmonds has third down and you know there'll be some mixing and matching in there but yeah I still expect there's gonna be a rushing touchdown I still expect it's likely to be Connor or Kyler yes yeah and Edmonds so in the first eight games Edmonds had run 180 routes

Connor had run 75 so Edmonds route participation was right around probably close to 70% routes, Connor had run 75. So Edmonds route participation was right around, eh, probably close to 70%. Connors was around 25%. Um, so that's not unexpected. And the other thing to keep in mind is yeah, Connor had two targets, but this was a game where they threw the ball 50 times. That is not the Cardinals identity. And so when they throw 32 times next week like they likely it will uh is that going to be there for james connor i would guess not i would probably set

the over under at catches at one and a half every game from here on out for connor as of this point i i probably pick against them next week i don't see how they're going to stop jonathan taylor so could be a game where they're throwing more than usual, but it won't be this much. All right, Dolphins running back. Let's go to this one here. Some notes from the Miami Herald. The Dolphins averaged more than five yards per carry

for the first time all season. Duke Johnson, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, ran for 22 more yards than expected. And on the season, Myles Gaskin has run for fewer yards than expected. Johnson had 58% of the snaps. Gaskin had 37%. And the thing is, you say, oh, well, they played the Jets.

They ran the ball. They're actually trailing for much of the game. They did end up winning, but they don't tip it. They're a very low run. They're not a run-heavy team. They don't have a lot of carries, but they did in both games against the jets so duke is 16 percent rostered 22 carries 107 yards two touchdowns

one catch and um yeah unfortunately he has a terrible matchup and gaskin had 10 carries for 54 yards he had one of his better games at a 30 yard run as as longest of the season. It is going from one end of the spectrum, the Jets to the Saints, to another end. Jacob, I'll give you the first word. Who's the best Dolphins running back going forward? How much do you trust him in Week 16? I have no answer for

that, I guess. Gaskin, but this is kind of what we talked about with Gaskin just a week or two ago. The schedule is favorable, but we have no idea what's going to happen. You guys mentioned that Lindsey is coming back. Malcolm Brown is practicing. I don't know. I think Gaskin is the answer,

and I wouldn't be surprised if he is back in a pseudo-lead role next week. It wouldn't shock me. He's been so bad. Why wouldn't they go to Duke Johnson? I don't know, man. I'm a Duke Johnson truther, so it won't take much to convince me to be like, yes, Duke's back. But no NFL team ever seems to trust him. I don't know why. He always plays well. I don't know why. It would be incredible if Duke Johnson and Cordero Patterson ended up winning people's championship in the same year.

That would just be amazing um yeah i i probably agree that gaskin's likely to be the the lead back but i i think the the real takeaway here is this situation is probably just way too messy to really want to trust especially against the saints where the upside probably isn't that high anyway but you know malcolm brown is expected to have a larger role in practice this week. Phillip Lindsey's back. I would expect we'll see more of Gaskin and Savan Ahmed. And so that's five bodies in the running back room right now that the Dolphins have to account for. And that just tells me that I don't want any of them. It is interesting that Gaskin actually ran

or was in on more pass plays than Duke Johnson yesterday. I don't really understand why you have Duke Johnson. You only have him for 13 pass plays. Because you got him out there for all the running. You got to give him a breather. I guess. But no, it was career highs across the board in rushing.

I believe carries, yards, and touchdowns were all career highs for Duke Johnson. I've always thought he was super talented. But yeah, my expectation is that this is probably a situation to just stay away from. I would love it if Duke Johnson was the lead back, but I'm not expecting it. I am expecting it, but I still

am not coming anywhere near starting him. And I'm expecting him to be the lead back, but I do think it'll be messy. I just don't see, I don't see any justification for going back to Myles Gaskin personally, but, because remember,

when Malcolm Brown was healthy, Gaskin had a very small role. He was not, he was the inferior pass blocker, and he wasn't the goal line guy. So, you know, it could be so bad,

but yeah, let's, okay, we're going to avoid, this is going to be, first of all, I just got a notification, see yeah, let's, okay. We're going to avoid this. This is going to be, first of all, they just got a notification. See who this is from.

Uh, Tom Pellicero, multiple fully vaccinated asymptomatic NFL players tested positive for COVID-19 today on the first day of the new targeted testing per sources. So routine weekly testing is over, but the Omicron wave is not. And even without symptoms, some new cases are still being caught.

So that's going to be wacky to begin with. And then you're going to start, you're going to be looking at Justin Jackson and Ronald Jones and who else did we talk about at the top of the show? Other guys, you're going to be starting them

over guys like Ezekiel Elliott. It's going to be a wacky week for running backs. Should we go right into it? Yes, P. Ryan, that's who it was. Jeff Wilson. Yeah, all right. Atlanta running backs. We'll do Dallas in a minute.

Atlanta running backs. Can we just say we have no interest in Mike Davis and this is just about Patterson at this point? Yeah, but I think Mike Davis matters, unfortunately. He gets five carries. Sometimes he gets four catches. He matters in terms of the role that he plays on the team. All right, but are you guys as down on Cordaro Patterson

as my Twitter feed seems to be? He gets 11 carries for 18 yards, two catches for five yards at the 49ers, who, by the way, in their last six games, they're giving up 3.1 yards per carry to running backs. That does remove a 73-yard touchdown run

on a fake punt by Travis Homer. I think we can agree that's not indicative of their run defense. This was a tough matchup. He got stuffed at the goal line twice. So, Jacob, are you worried about Cordaro Patterson? His next game is against Detroit,

and they give up the second most fantasy points to running backs. Yeah, obviously, you have to love him in this matchup, but I have been worried about Patterson for a couple weeks. I've been shocked to see people continue to rank him as a top 10, top 12 running back. I think he's more of a low-end RB2 with the usage that he's been seeing um patterson yeah i know this sounds wild but

like especially in games where they're a threat to get behind and lose you don't even know if he's going to play in the second half um he's been coming off the field a lot on passing downs um but at least this week we did see him play 10 out of 10 snaps in the two minute offense, which he had been losing those to Mike Davis, even Allison in the past couple of weeks. I really have no idea why. It was it was the game two weeks ago where he sat for the fourth quarter. They said it wasn't injury related. I didn't know what that was all about, but I don't know if that's influencing that at all. but that happened. Yeah. So, yeah,

I don't know. I've just been discouraged by his routes. They've really kind of been using him as like an early down only running back, which doesn't make sense to me. Um, especially given their lack of playmakers, um,

and, and pass catchers, but we did see his route involvement up a little bit this week. Um, and so I think, especially in this week, this matchup against Detroit game script, isn't quite as much of a concern.

Um, I think you should feel safe starting and especially given the landscape of running back right now. Um, this matchup against Detroit, game script isn't quite as much of a concern. I think you should feel safe starting him, especially given the landscape of running back right now. But overall, I just don't trust the usage right now. And Mike Davis really is kind of a thorn in his side, which is incredibly frustrating for everyone. Yeah, Chris, I'm good with him because I look at, he's basically a running back now.

I think that's kind of what Jacobs was saying. He's not going to have six catches for 70 yards anymore, but 13 to 16 carries in three straight games before yesterday. And those games were against the Jaguars, the Bucs, and the Panthers. And those are pretty good run defenses. He averaged 6.75 yards per carry against the Jags, six yards per carry against the Bucs. Nobody does that. He's their goal line guy.

That's the, talk about the role diminishing. And yes, it sucks that he's not in the passing game as much, but at least he is almost always the goal line guy. So maybe we can just take it week by week, but I'm with Jacob. I mean, you start him this week

against the Lions, and we can reassess. Good with that? He's probably a top 12 guy for me this week. I haven't started my rankings yet, and I probably won't until tomorrow, but yeah, he's going to be He's probably a top 12 guy for me this week. I haven't started my rankings yet, and I probably won't until tomorrow. But yeah, he's going to be probably a top 12 guy.

The thing is, he's not lining up wide as much anymore. From weeks 6 through 10, which was really when he was being used more as a hybrid player he was averaging right around 16 snaps per game either in the slot out wide or um what would the other one i guess he'll occasionally line up as like a tight end or fullback and uh that has dropped to about 10 per game over the last five weeks. And it was 10 this week. So that is a concern because if he's just being used as a running back, that also limits his upside as a pass catcher, not just because he'll get fewer targets, but because those targets will be less valuable. Running backs tend to average eight to nine yards per target

or per reception if you're lucky. Whereas Patterson early on in the season was was averaging like 11 to 12 and so i think it just does make him as a whole a less interesting player and it's really man he had that six catches for 127 yards game against new orleans and since then he doesn't have more than 27 receiving yards in a game. He has two games with more than three targets. And he's averaging 6.5 yards per reception. So, yeah, things have

really gone south for him. Alright, so we'll start Patterson this week and then we'll reassess for week 17 at Buffalo. Let's go to the Cowboys. Chris, I'll give you the first word here. Oh, Godwin has a torn ACL. Yeah, Godwin now for the year. Not coming back. That sucks.

He should be back for training camp, but even that will probably be pushing it a little bit. Alright, so Ezekiel Elliott gives you 16 carries, 52 yards, and a touchdown, plus three catches for 20 yards. He ended up, as of right now, with four games left to play. He's RB8 in non-PPR, RB7 in P catches for 20 yards. He ended up, as of right now, with four games left to play.

He's RB8 in non-PPR, RB7 in PPR for week 15. And he had a 13-yard carry. That is his longest in eight games. Woo! Meanwhile, I'm going to give Zeke credit for one thing. He's tough. He's physical. And he's tough to tackle.

And he's, you know, he's at least got that going for him. But Pollard is just, to me, a different dimension. And if the Cowboys were smart and brutally honest here, they would make Pollard their close to every downright. They're not going to. They're not going to. Whatever like, oh, Tony Pollard's more explosive, the Cowboys, it's not going to happen. At this point, we have to know that they're not going to and so that shouldn't factor into the discussion no it doesn't it's a

separate discussion but all right they've got washington coming up this week or next week washington has one of the best run defenses in football and um we just saw zeke against washington he had 12 carries for 45 yards and one catch for 15 yards chris do you think you're starting zeke and what about pollard against the football team at home on Sunday? I'm absolutely starting Ezekiel Elliott. His role is too valuable. Like that's just the bottom line, whatever, whether you think he's really, really bad or not, he is getting 13 to 15 plus carries per week. He's getting four to five targets almost every week. He's getting the goal line work. It's just,

I don't know. Maybe you're in a situation where you're really, really good at running back and you don't have to start him, but situation matters a lot. And Ezekiel Elliott is still in a pretty good situation. It's not as good of a situation as we thought, because this offense as a whole kind of looks pretty bad right now.

But yeah, it'd be really really hard for me to go away from a guy who is coming off a game with 20 opportunities and will likely be heavily favored next week. I don't know if they'll be heavily favored. I mean, they just barely I think they'll win. Their defense has been so good. Right. They won

by 15. Against who? Washington? The Giants. Oh, no. You and I both really liked Zeke this week. It set up beautifully for him, but if he didn't score that touchdown, he would have had another bad game. He still would have had what? He would have had

10 points. 10 PPR points. Yeah, that's terrible. It's not good, terrible it's not good but it's not terrible that's not something i get excited about i mean that's something i i'll tell you right now i'd start i'd start p ryan over him if mix and we're out i start ronald jones over him and i'd probably i would start justin jackson over zeke if he runs against the ravens is pretty interesting i don't know about that one well Well, what's Chris Evans' situation? That I don't know.

Because that would matter. All right, where are you at on Zeke right now, Jacob? I get your point about if he didn't have the touchdown, but I also think he's one of the most likely players to score a touchdown on any given week. He had all five of the running back red zone touches this week, played 92% of the red zone snaps, 88% of the snaps from inside the 10 10 and that's just been consistent all year he's played 94 percent of

the snaps from inside the 10 on the year um it's just crazy he just like they completely favor zeke in those situations um and so it makes him pretty easy to trust most weeks um even if it's you know unspectacular efficiency um and it makes pollard really relying on big plays because he's really just not getting very involved around the goal line at all um which is frustrating but um yeah i'm starting him over i think all the guys you mentioned honestly all the filling guys against washington what's the difference between ezekiel elliott now and miles gaskin Gaskin for the last... for the time that... for the time that

Malcolm Brown went out until this past week? I would guess Ezekiel Elliott probably has more touchdowns in the last six weeks than Myles Gaskin does in the last two seasons. Ezekiel Elliott has four touchdowns in his last nine games. So... Okay.

Yeah. So how many does Gaskin have? I'm going to guess pretty similar. I'll tell you right now. Gaskin has seven touchdowns on the season. Four of them are receiving. That's fluky. Rushing touchdowns, he has three in that same stretch.

Six over the last two seasons combined. That's the big difference. I'm talking about just specifically when Gaskin became basically a workhorse. It was, he's not good, but he's got such a valuable role. But if he doesn't score, you're not going to get a good game.

And that's pretty much what Zeke is. And the carries are not nearly as consistent. I mean, if you look at the last four games before yesterday, nine, nine, 13, 12 carries. And he's three and a half yards a carry. So, and that's consistent, by the way, those yards per carry is terrible.

So I don't know. I mean, he's Myles Gaskin to me, the good version of Myles Gaskin. And you know why? It's because the Cowboys offense is really struggling right now. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, to a certain extent, it's splitting hairs, but Ze is really struggling right now yeah yeah I mean to a certain

extent it's splitting hairs but Zeke is averaging about 70 yards per game in that nine nine game stretch where he's only scored four touchdowns Gaskin was averaging about 60 in the what last eight games or sorry the eight seven games before he was coming off the COVID list. But Zeke also had nearly a full reception more per game. I just, like, yeah, I think it's a similar thing. I think they're similar in kind, but different in degrees. Like, Gaskin plays in a worse offense. He's a worse player. He's not as involved in the passing game.

And so you add all those things up, and it's like, yeah, they're kind of similar. You can see it directionally, but Ezekiel Elliott still is a much better fantasy option. I do push back, though, on the catches. We have this conversation a lot because he had 12 catches in two games without Cooper and with Lamb only playing a half of one of those two games. And I think that contributed to it. The good news is a lot of past attempts, win or lose for Dak every week.

He's up to around 40 lately. All right. Any final word, Jacob? Are you good? No. I think the comparison you made there is honestly pretty fair and one I wouldn't have thought of. He's honestly kind of like Myles Gaskin just a slightly better offense. It's sad. He's hurt and he's playing with a knee brace and

he's lost his explosiveness. It's very clear. All right. the Packers. A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones. They get Cleveland next week. Cleveland's been pretty bad against the run lately. We'll see how they do today. But Dillon gets seven carries a week after having 15.

He has one catch in his last two games since Jones' return. And Jones, with a much bigger roll, 13 carries this week. He had five two weeks ago. And he had only two catches this week. He had three the week before that, but a receiving touchdown in two straight games. Jacob, Dylan, and Jones, go. Yeah, here we are again talking about these guys.

We again saw the red zone usage favor Dylan, which has been consistent now for a couple weeks and really kind of been, you know, we've kind of, the splits have been messy, but it's kind of been something that seemed to develop over the course of the season where Dylan just continues to be more involved on short yardage and goal line situations. He played 60% of the red zone snaps, 65% of the snaps from inside the 10 this week. But we saw the passing down usage go to Jones.

He played all the two-minute snaps and roughly two-thirds of the third down snaps as well. Only two targets, but I think that's kind of fluky given the amount of routes that he ran. I would expect more going forward. And then, yeah, it was pretty exciting to see him take a more, you know, dominant share of the rushing as well. So I think given the state of the uh rushing as well um so i think i think given

where the state of the running back position i think it's fair to expect jones to be like a top eight top 10 guy going forward which is more bullish than we were on him last time we talked do you get pushback on that chris i feel like you're saying like outside of the top 12 i would have to look and see but yeah i mean you feel better about him this week than than last week for sure and one thing i wish i had noticed in the game against the bears was that um jones played 23 of 31 snaps in the first half and then dylan dominated snaps and carries so you know i don't know if that was just because, I mean, they came out of the half. And I think, Adam, you've pointed out he had five carries on the first drive.

And then Jones came in for the goal line work. Yeah, it was only one play. I think it was like a five or six yard touchdown. By the way, it wasn't like they had this big lead that they were nursing. It was a very close game at halftime. Yeah. No, the Bears were leading at halftime. Oh, they were.

Okay. Yeah, I forgot. It was 27-21. But then the Packers jumped out really quick in the third quarter and took the lead and i don't know it's it's sort of hard to to make sense of right now but yeah i think jones should be ranked ahead of dylan now and i think probably top 12 ish i don't know about top eight i would have to look um it'll be interesting to see with like cordero patterson this week versus aaron jones given that cordero's got that matchup against the lions that's gonna be really interesting one to see but yeah you're right long story short is you're probably starting Aaron Jones. This is what I think

what Zeke would be if the Cowboys offense were really good, where you could feel fairly confident about a touchdown opportunity most weeks. Obviously, Jones is going to be much more efficient than this version of Zeke. I'm not saying that, but I just think that how well Aaron Rodgers is playing right now, it's such a boost to both of these guys. Dak is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt over his past five games.

This offense has... They've still managed to put up points, but one of those was an overtime game. They've had some defensive touchdowns sprinkled in there. Yeah. It's been, it's been sort of rough for them.

Absolutely. Yeah. All right. So, uh, Patterson, you start Patterson over AJ Dillon next week. Yeah,

I wish. Yeah. I'm curious. What do you think on Dylan versus, uh, James Conner? We've talked about these guys and they play kind of similar roles. All right. So Dylan will get the Browns. So as I mentioned, they've been very bad against the run lately. Chris, what do you think on Dylan versus James Conner? We've talked about these guys, and they play kind of similar roles.

All right, so Dylan will get the Browns. As I mentioned, they've been very bad against the run lately. And Conner has the Colts. I think I'd go. I think I'd go Dylan. I think so, too. I think I'd go Conner. Really?

I'll tell you why, because. The Colts' defense is really good. Well, I guess there's the Kyler factor. What I was going to say is, if they get down inside the... If they get down to the two or three-yard line, I would say 65% chance Dylan gets a carry, 35% Jones. Connor is more like 95% ahead of Edmonds,

but when you factor Kyler in there, it's probably 60-40. So the same kind of... All right, maybe factor kyler in there yeah it's probably 60 40 you know so the same kind of slip all right maybe i go dylan yeah it's it's tough and both the thing is both of them have looked really really good as pass catchers this season too but their teams seem to prefer the other guy i mean heath has talked about on this podcast a ton but james connor historically has been a very good pass catcher for a running back and in the time that chase edmundonds was out, James Conner was averaging

11 yards per target or something. It was crazy. He was really good as a pass catcher in those games. Oh, yeah. Conner's been the more efficient. 95% catch rate. Conner's been the more efficient receiver by far, and Edmonds has been the more efficient rusher by far. Just flip the script,

Arizona. Yeah, Arizona. Yeah, 10.4 yards per target, 93% catch rate, 11.2 yards per reception was what Connor was doing in the games Edmonds missed. He was almost averaging more yards as a receiver than a rusher. Well, this has been a fun show and gives me a really good head start to the Week 16 prep. So thank you guys for this exercise. Jacob, Chris, thank you so much.

Want to thank everybody for watching and listening. Enjoy your two football games today and two more tomorrow. And make sure you change, for goodness sake, change your waiver date in your leagues because first of all, you don't even know who's going to be, you can't make it for Tuesday night

because you don't even know who's advancing at that point. And secondly, you got to give yourself a little bit more time to see what goes on. I thought you were going to say make sure you change your clothes between Monday and Tuesday night, which also you should. I mean, I know a lot of us are working from home, but still. Remember, hygiene is important.

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