Fantasy Football Today - Seven Mid-Round STEALS and a Mailbag! (05/23 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 23, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts The mid-round picks could be crucial to your Fantasy success. We'll give you seven players to target in Rounds 5-8 beginning with a couple of Jaguars pass catchers (1:25) and a couple of quarterbacks (6:45). Who has better value: Christian Kirk or Evan Engram? Joe Burrow or Jordan Love? ... News and notes (14:15) and then Jamey tells us why Marquise Brown will be a good value (17:40). How do Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice factor in? ... Dave makes the case for Zack Moss (23:30) and Dalton Kincaid (32:30) as great mid-round picks. Why can't Moss be as good as Joe Mixon was with the Bengals? ... Your emails at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Mid-round steals. Love this topic. You got to win the middle rounds of your draft, which for me, I'm just going to say roughly rounds five through eight of a 12 team league. So 50 to whatever, 90 ish in draft in overall draft picks and welcome everybody. It is a dark and stormy Thursday up here in New York. How's the weather in South Florida, Dave and Jamie? Looks good. Have you have you ever walked on the sun?

Oh, yeah. Hot out there? Yes. Don't miss that. I thought that was a Smashmouth reference. Yeah. Yeah, so anyway, it's ugly today, but we got a Memorial Day weekend. Hope you all have

fantastic plans and have an upcoming great weekend. And yeah, I'll get to that when we sign off. But let's talk about some mid rounds. I see I'm rehearsing my my outros at the beginning of the show because they're so bad. Let's talk about today's show, today's topic, right? You guys each gave me three mid rounds deals, not a lot of names to get to because I do want to have a mini mailbag here, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. But I'm going to take two from Jamie. I'm going to take two from Jamie. I'm going to take two from Dave. I'm going to start with what's the better value?

Because, Jamie, you got a little Jaguars theme here. You got Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram. Kirk's been going in round five in our drafts. I'm just going to guess. I'm going to give him a round six ADP in a 12-team league. I think we're kind of high on him, so maybe it goes a little earlier. And Ingram's been going in round eight, so I'll put him there. What's a better value, Christian Kirk in round six or Evan Ingram in round eight?

And by the way, that ESPN draft I keep referencing, Kirk actually went 92nd, and Ingram went 31 picks before him. But for these purposes, Kirk in round six or Ingram in round eight? I mean, Ingram in round eight, just based on what he was able to do last year and what I think he'll be able to do this year. Obviously, I'm very fond of both of them. I think what they lost and what those guys have shown in each of the last two seasons, Ingram last year, Kirk two years ago, these are going to be the go-to guys for Trevor Lawrence for the majority of the season. Brian Thomas will have an opportunity to make some plays.

Hopefully, Gabe Davis will as well, but Kirk and Ingram should be the two target leaders on this team. And I think we're going to see a bounce back season from this Jaguars passing attack. So I'll take Ingram slightly later, but love the situation for both. If you look back on last year for Ingram, when Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk were both on the field, it's 12 games. Evan Ingram averaged 11.5 PPR points per game. Now, when you think about running backs and elite wide receivers, that number's low, but when you think about tight ends, that's pretty

good. Christian Kirk last year, he was around 12 PPR points per game, a little bit better than that. Two years ago, he was around 14. I'm not entirely sure he's going to get back to 14. Let's call it 13 for Kirk. That's still good enough to be a low-end wide receiver too. For that two-point difference on two or three rounds difference at a premium position like tight end. I agree. I'll take the tight end. Ingram.

Evan Ingram. I was kind of encouraged by this. If you want a high floor, he's been in the league seven years now, right? He has been on a per game basis, a top 10 tight end per game in five of seven seasons. In full PPR, that's top eight per game in five of seven seasons. The two seasons he

didn't were his last two with the Giants. He was absolutely horrible. There were some injuries there, but also really bad quarterback play, horrible, horrible quarterback play. So I think if you're drafting Evan Ingram and you're worried about floor, he probably shouldn't be. He seems like pretty, I don't know. I don't know. I don't want to use the word lock, but pretty close to a lock to be at least a top 10 tight end per game. Be someone that you're going to be okay. Starting, uh, Kirk was the number 20 wide receiver per game two years ago. That was before Calvin Ridley came. And last year, guys, Calvin Ridley was number one in the NFL in end zone targets. I think he was number three in red zone and number four in green zone targets. That is the guy that Trevor Lawrence went to over and over and over again.

And this is unbelievable. Look at this for Christian Kirk. In 2022, before Ridley, he had 22 red zone targets. In 2023, he had five. He had 10 green zone targets in 2022. He had two in 2023. And he went from 11 end zone targets to four end zone targets from 2022 to 2023. So I like that.

He also missed time, so that's part of it. It is, yes. You're absolutely right. But still, that is that is like a shockingly low number. Even even in was a 12 games, basically 11 games. He had only two green zone and four end zone targets last year. So that's something that both of these guys can benefit from with Ridley out. Now, Jamie, you said you think the Jaguars passing game takes a step up this year.

That's that's interesting. Why do you feel that way? I don't think Trevor Lawrence will be as bad. And, you know, you look at how this passing game performed last year, how many missed opportunities did they have of Calvin Ridley, mostly him, whether it was Lawrence missing him in the end zone or him stepping out of the end zone or dropping a pass in the end zone. I mean, it was a lot of almost this.

And, you know, what's the segment that you do? Almost touchdowns? Yeah, almost touchdowns. Yeah, it was a lot of almost this, and what's the segment that you do? Almost touchdowns? Yeah, almost touchdowns. Yeah, there was a lot of almost touchdowns. It felt like it was Jaguars every week. Presented by Calvin Ridley. Now, I don't think that clearly Thomas and Davis are at the level yet of Ridley and Zay Jones,

but I also don't think they have a lot of room to go to get there because Thomas could be a very talented rookie and Davis just might be better than Zay Jones if things go right for him. So it's, it's a stretch, but I don't think it's a huge stretch. And then again, you lost Kirk for the back half of the season. And I think his absence was significantly felt now Ingram benefited from that. So we'll find out just how much maybe Kirk's return puts a little bit of a ceiling on Ingram because like Dave mentioned,

it was 11.5 PPR points when they were healthy. It was much more than that when Kirk was gone. So we'll see how much of a factor that is. But again, you're talking about over 200 targets vacated from the loss of Ridley and Jones, and I don't think that all automatically goes to the two newcomers. The two guys that are already there are going to benefit quite a bit. Okay.

Next up, what's the better value? Joe Burrow. I'm going to kind of guess ADPs here based on what we've seen and what I expect. Joe Burrow in round five or Jordan Love in round seven? These are two guys that Dave is highlighting as mid-round steals. Joe Burrow in round five or Jordan Love in round seven? These are two guys that Dave is highlighting as mid-round steals. Joe Burrow and Jordan Love. I know you like Burrow better, but if you could get Love two rounds later, what's the better value, Dave?

Burrow in round five or Love in round seven? This is assuming that everybody's healthy by the time training camp wraps up in mid-August and the preseason gets into high gear. We don't know if we can definitely say that with Joe Burrow. History would say that we can't. I'm a fan of love. I love love. I think everybody should have love in their lives,

and I think everybody should have love in their draft plans if you find yourself waiting on a quarterback. The way that he finished last year, 25 fantasy points per game in his final nine games, really a great finish to what was his first season being the guy in green Bay. And I've talked about it before the, his ability to, to put up numbers in those final nine games, regardless of who was healthy form, a wide receiver was a big time factor. There were a few offensive line issues. They were juggling some backups and third stringers,

playing with the starting unit. He overcame that. He overcame a run game that really didn't catch fire until the very end of the season and into the playoffs. He had a lot to shoulder in that offense, and he did great. And so I think that if he can carry that over, if his receiving core is healthy, I think Jordan Love can end up getting –

can he really get 25 fantasy points per game? Maybe he's below that. That's still pretty good if he's in that 22 to 24 range, but he's got the ceiling to be better than 25. That's how good I think he is. And Burrow, we've seen it from him before. We saw him average over 26 fantasy points per game, and this is all six-point for passing touchdown, 26 in 2022.

And he might have the best receiving core. If Jermaine Burton clicks early with him and T. Higgins doesn't hold out, man, we're talking about maybe the best receiving core that he's ever had to throw to. And that's saying something because Tyler Boyd was good for him there. And there's a couple of question marks at running back. We'll talk about maybe another value on that offense. But I think that Joe Burrow is going to have a lot on his plate.

And I think he's very good when he throws the football. Two quarterbacks I'm targeting on draft day. I don't think they'll be going that close together, though, Adam. Where has Love? I feel like Love has consistently gone behind Richardson and I get it. I get the appeal of Anthony Richardson, but if we're going to play the, well, Jordan loves only had one year card that we've got to play the Anthony Richardson's only played parts of four.

I mean, you're drafting Richardson base for his rushing. If he, if he plays a full season, he's going to be better than Jordan. Well, let me just get, let me just give you where they went, because this is based on the two drafts we did. In the full PPR draft, they went five picks apart, both in round seven. In the half PPR draft, Joe Burrow went to you, Jamie, 10th pick of round six, and about a round and a half later, Jordan Love went to Dave. So that's why I separated them by two rounds.

I can look at the ESPN one if you care, but that's just where I was. Rounds five and seven for Burrow and Love again. I don't know what it is. I'd be surprised if they're that close because it feels like Burrow is going to be in the first six quarterbacks drafted in most six-point passing touchdown leagues with the usual four and C Stroud. And then Love will be in the back end of the next group because I think most people will draft Richardson ahead of him. They will probably draft Dak ahead of him. They will probably draft Kyler ahead of him now with the addition of Harrison.

And then he's probably in that next pick up. Okay. Yeah, and I love that. I love that. And just to put it out there, and this is small samples. This is Adam Azer softball batting average sample size. Two games that Richardson finished, he averaged 28.3 fantasy points. So to Jamie's point, he could be better and have a much higher ceiling than Jordan Love.

And then for Burrow, I'll give you another small sample size. The nine games in 2022 where he, Chase, and Higgins were all healthy, did not leave with injuries, he averaged about 28 points per game in six points per pass and touchdown. So that's, I think you saw the ceiling for Joe Burrow, truly elite. All right, we'll take a break. Dave, is there something you, I think before the show, there was something you wanted me to promote.

Is that correct? Let's we'll take a break. Dave, is there something you I think before the show, there was something you wanted me to promote. Is that correct? Well, I want to I want to talk about this offseason ADP project that we're doing. I know that right now on this very show, we're oscillating back and forth between mock drafts that we've done and apparently one that ESPN did. I'm trying to build an offseason ADP for us to use built by our listeners and our viewers. So if you're interested in participating in an ask FFT fan mock draft, email us. It's either you can either,

which email should we use? Should we use the fantasy football one or just mine? Just yours. If it's okay with you, just yours. I don't, I don't care. It's fine.

D Richard at cbs.com. Drop me a note. If you want to participate in a mock draft, and eventually I will get to you, and you will be part of one of our mock drafts. Usually they're in the afternoons on weekdays. Can I ask you a question? You can ask me anything you want. First of all, two questions.

It's D. Richard. It's not D. Richard. It's just D. Richard at CBS.com. The only dot is between CBS.com. Why are you still using that email address? That was like 10 email addresses ago. Because it's shorter. If I say dave.richard at paramount.com or dave.richard at cbsinteractive.com,

they all come to the same place. You're typing seven or eight extra letters. If I really wanted to use a short email, it would be Adam. or no, it would be A-A-Z-E-R. What would it be? I don't know. I guess if A-A-Z-E-R at cbs.com is an email address, I guess that would work, but- Definitely not using Jamie's.

He's got a longer last name. Yeah, yeah. All right, drichard at cbs.com. The shortest email, the shortest way to contact Dave. I could just give you his phone number too. But yes, this is actually, this will be really helpful for us. We want you to do mock drafts so we can get an ADP and let Dave know if you're interested. I'm sure thousands of you are, so this should be easy to fill. We'll be right back. When we come back, we'll tell you some news items and get into

some mid-round steals and your emails, and we even have the fantasy cops to end the show. We'll be right back on FFT. With Smartwater's pure crisp taste, there's nothing to overthink. So while you may be spiraling over double texting your crush, whether your skincare routine is working because you look the same or is doing nothing because you look the same, and whatever the heck red light therapy is, it's definitely not that. don't overthink how you hydrate life's full of choices smart water is a simple one miller light the light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer and the perfect pairing for your game time when miller light set out to brew a light beer, they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can. They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer.

Your game time tastes like Miller time. Learn more at MillerLite.ca. Must be legal drinking age. News and notes. The Jaguars seem committed to using Tank Bigsby more this year. They want to keep Travis Etienne fresh. Travis Etienne had, I'll just round up and down, make it easier, 75% of his team's running back carries.

Christian McCaffrey had 68% of his team's running back carries. Be even lower if you included Debo Samuel's carries in there, which a lot of them were like running back carries. But Jamie, does that concern, Mr. Jaguars is today apparently, does that concern you for ETM?

We have talked about this before, but it was said again recently by Doug Peterson. More work for Bigsby. I mean, slightly. You know, Bigsby was bad last year, but that doesn't mean he's going to be bad once again. And if it's not him, it could be Dearness Johnson, you know,

because we saw them use him in that secondary role last year. So they clearly want to make sure that Travis Etienne is healthy and makes it through the majority of the season. But I think, you know, the two numbers that you referenced, if he goes from 75% to 68%, that probably makes the Jaguars feel better and he can still be very productive as a fantasy option. So I'm not shying away from drafting him in round two, if I need to take running back there.

Yeah. Maybe he wore down a little bit down the stretch. We know he didn't have a good second half. Keaton Mitchell Ravens running back towards ACL in week 15, not expected to be ready for week one. Bijan Robinson has an ankle injury. He should be ready for mandatory mini camp in June. June is like right around the corner, huh?

Getting close to the season. Gino Smith feels like he has a really good grasp of the Seahawks new offense. And Dave, was there something you wanted to add about the Seahawks offense? Well, it's going to be very different than what it was in prior seasons with Pete Carroll basically telling, you know, a parade of different offensive coordinators, run the ball and then run it some more. Uh, Ryan Grubb, the coordinator that helped Michael Penix have monster seasons at Washington. He's the one now in charge of this offense. It's a spread offense. He likes to take shots. There's going to be a lot of motion, uh, expect the slot role to be very, very targeted.

That's the track record of Grubb, not only at Washington, but when he was calling plays at Fresno State. Wide receivers got a ton of targets. It's very wide receiver-based, but about half the targets went to slot receivers. Well, half the targets went to receivers who lined up in the slot. So I would imagine there's going to be more mixing and matching than we saw previously, but this is something that very much stands out

for believers of Jackson Smith and Jigba, hoping that he has a big second season. I am definitely excited about JSN after I realized, A, this is an offense that he's kind of been used in before, and B, that he's the one who's likely to line up and play out of the slot more than Lockett and DK Metcalf. Deshaun Watson has been throwing every other day. He's recovering from a pretty serious shoulder injury. Two rookie wide receivers making the headlines here.

Ladd McConkie has been playing mostly out of the slot, which is not a surprise. He played a lot out wide in college, but he he basically profiles as a slot receiver for the Chargers. And Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy tweaked his hamstring in practice. All right, let's get to the mid-round steals here. And first I'll ask you, Jamie, is there anything you want to add on Christian Kirk or Evan Ingram? No, I think we covered it.

Again, I just like the opportunity for both of those guys with the changes that are happening in Jacksonville's passing game, specifically the losses of Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones. All right, then let's talk about Marquise Brown. He's the third guy you gave us. Marquise Brown is a mid-round steal for you. Xavier Worthy, not only a rookie, but is he going to have some injury concerns in his rookie campaign? You know, speed guys haven't exactly worked out great in the NFL, the guys that have run the fastest at the combine. And that's what he did. And then you have the Rashi Rice situation where we don't know exactly what's going to happen with him. If he's going to be suspended, how long he's going to be suspended, how much time will

he miss? And, you know, Marquise Brown, I know was frustrating and disappointing last year, but he's had some very good moments his last year in Baltimore, his first year in Arizona. They were very productive fantasy seasons, on top of what he did in the early part of his Baltimore career. So you're pairing him with the best passing quarterback that he's ever played with in Patrick Mahomes,

and we'll see how much just he becomes that go-to guy at the wide receiver position. Travis Kelsey used to still lead the team in targets, but Marquise Brown might be second. And we saw Rice have a very productive end of his rookie campaign. We know that what Patrick Mahomes has done with clearly Tyree Kill, and you don't want to put those expectations on anybody, but a number one receiver can certainly be a number one fantasy receiver

for the Chiefs. And so Brown, as late as he's going, I think that will certainly change if Rice has a significant suspension. he may creep into, I don't want to say round four, but, you know, round five, six, I think is where he'll probably end up settling. So for this topic, he certainly fits. But the upside is fantastically there. And he can be. Do you remember the, do you remember the first six weeks of 2022 when it came to marquise brown uh yes in fact that i was going to bring that up marquise brown has had two stretches of

absolute greatness six games in 2022 eight games in 2021 but it really hasn't he just hasn't been able to keep it up but yeah yeah, I remember that, Dave. And the first five games of 2023, he averaged over 15 PPR points per game. And that was mostly with Josh Dobbs throwing to him. So there are definitely little bunches during the season where he can step up and be a big time factor. And if Xavier Worthy isn't 100%,

Rashi Rice is suspended, I wouldn't be surprised if he was averaging big time factor. And if Xavier worthy isn't a hundred percent, Rashi rice is suspended there. I wouldn't be surprised if he was averaging seven and a half targets per game for however long rice is suspended to begin the year. This is a great wide receiver to get and start to begin the season. I don't, I don't think worthy's injury or even really anything significant matters to Brown early in the season. Cause he's going to be a rookie trying to learn this offense. You saw the rice last year. He struggled to learn the offense early in the season, because he's going to be a rookie trying to learn this offense.

You saw the rice last year. He struggled to learn the offense early in the season. You know what I mean? You think about the, the list of names that they've brought in over the last couple of years who haven't made it, you know, from Nicole Hardman to sky more to there's another rookie that they drafted.

I'm forgetting, you know, the, these guys struggle and I think worthy will take some time. And so Brown could easily, you know, granted he's got to learn the system too, but you know, easier for a veteran, you would think. And so just looking at the way this receiving core is sort of shaking out, you know, we're, we're excited about my homes.

I think I know Dave and I do have him as the number one quarterback. I think he does also as well. Um, you know, he, he's going to need these guys. I think I know Dave and I do have him as the number one quarterback. I think he does also as well. You know, he's going to need these guys. And if Rice is out for a significant stretch, Brown could be fantastic. Do you see him as an upside play or a just kind of good plug him in as a number three receiver kind of play? I mean, that's how I'm going to draft him. But, you know, Dave just gave you some numbers that suggest he could be an upside play. You know, when we're talking about, you know, Christian Kirk at 12 and a half PPR points per game.

And, you know, he was two points better than that to be a top 20 receiver. And if he's, you know, Broncos Brown is getting 15 plus, that's going to put him in the top 20 range for sure. So, you know, I think first off, once we get to, you know, main draft season, we will hopefully have the Rice news, and that will dictate what Brown's ADP is. But one of those two guys could be one of the biggest steals based on ADP. Where Rashi Rice is going right now, if he has a two-game suspension, maybe four-game suspension, there's still a lot of upside from his play. He's with the team now you know they're giving the opportunity to still practice and participate and do everything he needs to do and coming off the year that he had last year you know he could build off of that and

be the best receiver for the chiefs and if he's missing you know six plus games then marquise brown could be what rice was times whatever you know just, just because of his, you know, ability to, you know, maybe understand things right away. Alvin Kamara had a three game suspension. I'm not comparing the two instances or whatever, but Alvin Kamara had a three game suspension to start the season last year. If Rasheed Rice has a three game suspension, who's the first Chiefs wide receiver off the board in drafts? Or how about all three?

It will be Brown, Rice, Worthy for me. Yeah. And if there's no suspension, it will be Rice, Brown, Worthy for me. Okay. Yes. All right. So Jamie's three players he wanted to highlight

were Christian Kirk, Evan Ingram, and Marquise Brown. Who do you like better, Kirk or Brown? Right now, Kirk. Okay. How many games of suspension for Rasheed Rice before you'd move Marquise Brown ahead of Christian Kirk? Eight. Oh, wow. Okay.

Which was possible, you know, when the assault charge looked like it would be charged, but it sounds like it's going to get dropped. I believe the alleged victim is not pressing charges, if I saw that correctly. Yeah, it looks like that charge is going to be, it's nothing to do with the car stuff, but the assault charge, yeah,

that's looks like that's going to be dropped. Dave, is there anything you'd like to add about Joe Burrow and Jordan Love, or would you like to move on to your next two guys? Let's move on. I think they're both terrific values at quarterback. Zach Moss yeah i've got him in every league that we're not playing out zach moss uh a mid-round steal for you and i mean maybe you should be the one to get into why zach moss is a potential steal no you can do it i think people have heard enough from me

you haven't been well i mean you can you you can fill in the blanks but we saw him last year six games without jonathan taylor he averaged almost 14 ppr points per game when taylor played that number fell but was still in double digits he got a decent amount of work um right in the beginning of the offseason we talked about how his metrics were better than joeon's. He was better, I think, in almost everything, including avoided tackle rate. Or maybe Mixon was a little bit better there. But he's got the opportunity to take over Joe Mixon's role. And that's been a role that's usually led to 15-plus PPR points per game.

I know Chase Brown is there. I'm kind of excited about Chase Brown. But I don't know if he's going to really get that opportunity to be the feature back there unless Zach Moss misses time. And that's the bugaboo with Zach Moss is that he does get injured fairly frequently. And if he can't stay healthy, then obviously that's a problem for fantasy managers.

But if you're drafting him in the mid rounds to begin the season as a, as an RB two, and maybe he's got a chance to contribute 12, 13 weeks over the course of the season in an offense that should be strong, whose offensive line should be better. Then I think Zach Moss can potentially have the best year of his career. And maybe the only good year of his career as the lead dog in Cincinnati's backfield.

Avoid rate actually was, was totally Zach Moss. And that's one stat that a lot of the advanced metrics people really believe in yards after college. I think you've heard Schneier say yards after contact and avoid rate and stuff like that. I mean, Moss is better than Mixon over the last four seasons in just about every advanced metric. And Mixon's been a top 12 running back year after year.

And he doesn't do it in an impressive way. And here's another stat. Mixon, the last three years, 42 catches in 16 games, 60 catches in 14 games. That was a lot. Not going to expect that. 52 catches in 17 games. Okay, so let's say he's like a 50-catch guy. He's never, Joe Mixon has never had

more than six catches on third down. So, Zach Moss doesn't have to be the third down guy to have a 50-catch season. And, you know, will he, I guess the question, and I think Jamie will speak to this, because I know he's a big Chase Brown guy,

will Chase Brown have like a noticeably different role than he had, a bigger role? Will he eat into the first and second down work? He might. But I would just say that if Joe Mixon just, I mean, I get a lot of criticism for this, but if you just look at the stats, there's just nothing special about Joe Mixon and what he's done in his career. And yet, because he was basically getting all the work, all the significant work, and Burrow throws to his running backs on first and second down,

he was a must-start fantasy option. And he was going in round two, round three. Zach Moss might go in round seven or round eight or something like that. So that's why I like him. Jamie, your thoughts? I think the value on both guys is pretty fantastic for, for Moss and for Brown. And, you know, Dave hit on something that I just can't get by with Zach Moss. And it's something Dave used to harp on a lot when he was in Buffalo, you know,

his time at Utah, he had a hard time staying healthy, his time in Buffalo, he had a hard time staying healthy. And, you know, you have it as a, as a six game sample size. I look really at the four games, you know, he didn't play in week one, and then it was, I think week five was when Jonathan Taylor started playing again. So it was a very small sample size of when Zach Moss was actually getting those chances. And he was fantastic. And, you know, I referenced this story a few times when the Bengals signed him, that his best success has come from running out of the shotgun, which is what the Colts did a lot of and what the Bengals do a lot of. And I think that's why they wanted him for what his scheme fit is,

is that he does well in this system. So there's a lot to like about Zach Moss, but just can't get past the fact that when he had this chance to be the lead guy in Buffalo, he couldn't hold it. And so I don't want to, you know, this, you know, you, you referenced this a lot, Adam, the Alexander Madison, small sample size. It feels like this is a small sample size of what we're chasing here with Zach Moss. Cause he was so good. He was an absolute stud in the beginning part of the season last year, but he just wasn't able to do in Buffalo. And so I tend to let Zach Moss go and just look for chase Brown. And he was actually somebody I was going to put in, in this, uh, in, in the response to your email. Um, but it feels like he's going around

nine or later. Um, I know we tend to draft him in round eight and a lot of our drafts, but I don't think his ADP is going to be over close to that. So you don't think Zach Moss will have around eight ADP? No, I don't think Chase Brown, I think Zach Moss will probably go from anywhere between round six and running, you know, ADP. I just think that's how he'll go, depending on the format, depending on the type of preseason hype that we'll get from him. And, you know, he's going to be a little polarizing for me. So I will most likely pass on Moss. I have Moss ranked higher.

I think Moss has the chance to be better if he does stay healthy. That's clearly goes without question based on how they are paying him and viewing him. But to me, Brown is the more intriguing player because of what his role could be in the passing game, because I think he's more explosive. He's got a year in the system already. And so if Moss does go down and Brown does take over, we may not see Moss come back as the lead guy.

That's just how I feel. Okay, Zach Moss or Brian Robinson. Moss. I would take Moss. Zach Moss or a Titans running back. I have Moss. Pollard Moss. Spears for me. I've got Moss one spot ahead of Pollard because I'm just not sold that Pollard's going to be any better than an ambiguous running back where there's going to be multiple. He's just going to rotate too much with Spears.

And just to tie in the injury situation here, I go back to what Pollard said. I believe it was week 11 last year that he finally felt that he was back to full strength. And from week 12 on, I believe pro football focus had him as the best running back in football. Who was that? What was his fantasy production? That's something we should take a look at. It's fantasy production was good. I don't think it was great. I'll tell you right now. Week 12. Yeah, week 12, week 11, Carolina game. Well, you know, you start off with the Carolina game. That's a good way to be the best running back in fantasy, right? They were the best matchup.

Last eight games. So that would be week 11 on for Pollard last year, 13.7 PPR points per game. Not bad. All right. We're going to take a break. Come back. We have one more player to talk about.

It's another tight end. And then we'll get into your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. I'd also like to invite you, cordially invite you, to leave us a five-star review on Apple Podcasts. We'd really appreciate that. You can leave a question there as well. But leave a comment. Might help your chances of getting into the fan mock drafts if you do. I like that. Yeah. So leave a five-star review. Tell people why you like our show.

You can ask a question. You can also tell Dave in your email to drichard at cbs.com that you left a five-star review. We can put a little screenshot there or something. Anyway, we'll be right back. Stick around. Mama, look at me. Vroom, vroom. I'm going really fast.

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Then sit back and let your matches start the chat. Download Bumble and try it for yourself. So, you guys have any fun Memorial Day plans? No. Why do you sound like Barney? Which Barney? Like the dinosaur or the Flintstones guy? Or, don't cry for me.

I'm already dead. That Barney. All right. Well, I hope you guys have fun weekends. You gonna hit the pool? Yeah, a little swimming? A lot of baseball. Hey, wow.

I'll probably end up in the pool, yes. Good. All right. Dalton Kincaid. He's gonna have a up in the pool. Yes. Good. All right. Dalton Kincaid. He's going to have a great Memorial Day weekend. Just a guess. He's also on Dave's list of mid-round steals. You like him better than Evan Ingram?

I do like him better than Evan Ingram. And I think there's a chance, outside chance, that he finishes as a tight end one this year. Opportunity is there for him to lead the bills in targets. That's an offense that doesn't have a stud number one wide receiver with Stefan Diggs gone. Keon Coleman's a rookie. I don't think he's a complete player as a wide receiver. I just think that he's a big rangy physical perimeter type guy.

There's a role for that in that offense. We saw it with Gabe Davis. I think Coleman could be a better version of that. I think Curtis Samuel is kind of what he is. Khalil Shakir is one of my favorite sleepers this year, but I think Kincaid's got a shot to see 130 plus targets. We saw it last year when there was no Dawson Knox, his target share went up in that situation. 7.4 targets per game, weeks eight through 12.

He averaged 13.8 PPR points per game. That's pretty good. I think that he could hit that target per game number with Knox because there's no Stefan digs on the field. This is somebody that I'm looking for. I'm kind of looking for him in that round five range and might be, he might be the only tight end after the big four that I would kind of gravitate toward and reach for instead of settle for at a good value. I think there's a difference between the two.

Tight end stress. I love tight end. It's always actually, I know people probably think I'm kidding, but it's actually one of my favorite, probably my favorite position. Well, because it's because when you've got a good one, you have an advantage. We've talked about this. Yeah, I actually think there's a lot of tight end strategy.

There's strategy at every position, but if you don't hit on a running back strategy, whatever, you can kind of just adjust as the draft goes on. Tight end, it's a little bit different. I mean, you don't have to, but I think you go into it kind of with a tight end strategy, and it's not necessarily where the things – I'm rambling a little bit, but I actually love the tight end strategy.

Every single time we talk about tight end, it makes me want to skip the top four tight ends, except for maybe Kelsey because he's Kelsey. Because I love Kincaid and Pitts and Ingram. Like, I get it. I get it. That group again. It's always that group.

I know, but right, every year we fall for this. So I don't know. I think the thing about Kinkade, and actually was the first name I thought of, but we talked about him on Monday or Tuesday's show, the What Could Happen show. You know, Dan brought him up as exactly what Dave says. Or no, Dan's premise was he could be tight end too

because Dan's still a Kelsey guy. Um, and I totally agree. He's my favorite breakout player at any position this year. I'll go back to that again. Um, just love the setup for him. Uh, and I'll reference, you know, Dave wasn't on this. So I'm curious his thoughts. Cause it sounds like it's, it's similar.

Um, I was in a magazine draft last week, and I was picking 10th, so it was coming back to me on the swing. And there were two tight ends still on the board. I was basically committing myself to one of them, and Andrews went right in front of me as the fourth tight end. And I was like, I'm taking Kincaid. I don't care because I didn't think I was going to get it. It was coming back to me.

And so I don't love seeing those guys go back to back because I think there should be a little bit of separation for them. But as I continue to adjust my rankings, uh, I know we all are doing that. It just, Kincaid's moving up and up and up in the top 200. So he's almost creeping into the round four range. He's just outside. He's in my top 50 picks. And so just really the setup is there.

Everything is, is in his favor. Uh, you know, Dave referenced the time miss for Dawson Knox. He goes at the end of the season when Gabe Davis missed starting in week 18 into the playoffs. His targets share spiked again. It just seemed like anytime someone was missing of their key guys, he was a bigger part of the offense. And now there's clearly a big piece missing, two big pieces missing with Diggs and Davis gone. Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel are going to take big portions of those targets that are available, but Kincaid should be top two in targets, might be number one in targets. Not hard to expect that. And based on what his

pedigree is and how they think they'll use him and what Joe Brady will do with him, how Josh Allen will lean on him, tight end one is certainly in the conversation. So the thing that will sway it is the touchdowns because the catches and yards should be there. If he can be a 10 touchdown guy, certainly eight plus touchdown guy based on how the position performed last year, where Kelsey came back to the group, came back to the pack. Then we're looking at 14 points per game.

And if he can get to 14 points per game, he'll be in the pack. Then we're looking at 14 points per game. And if he can get to 14 points per game, he'll be in the discussion. You know, I think we have to spend, I don't know if it should be today because I want to get to the emails, but remind me, we should talk more about Mark Andrews. This is guy.

We never really talk about Mark Andrews. I feel I just did his outlook for the site and for our magazine last night. Didn't realize he was at 13 and a half PPR points per game for the season because he missed, he missed so much time at the end. That was actually the second best year of his career. The previous one was 13.6.

I bet you, Jamie, if you Azerstat that, because he left that game in the first drive. You take out the last game, sure, he was better. Probably over 14. It's really a fun discussion. We're going gonna spend a lot of time who's the best receiver in fantasy you know because you can make a case for lamb for hill for jefferson for chase for saint brown you know all those guys have reasons to be in the discussion uh tight end is the same a quarterback i guess the same too you know when you talk about mahomes and hertz and and Allen and Lamar,

tight end is right there. You can probably pull 100 people, and you're going to get 25 Kelsey, 25 McBride, 25 Laporta, and 25 for Andrews. I'm cheating there because I don't think that'll be the case, but there's a case to be made for all of them, and it's going to be fun. Yeah. All right. Let's do it. Let's just get like we should move draft season up to jolt to may you want to get in a mock draft adam you should not i don't know i mean i feel like it should be not me but yeah i'm sure i'll we'll do another one this week for the site so we'll be good next week you mean uh the memorial Day week, post-Memorial Day week.

Yeah. Okay. All right. And that's going to do it for our mid-round steals. Let's take a look at – well, I'm sorry. I don't have mid-round steals from the audience. I have just regular emails from the audience at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go from Aiden.

Where's Aiden from? Aiden is from Coral Springs, Florida. Oh, hello, Aiden, my neighbor. If you had Mahomes and Burrow on a middle-of-the-pack, super-flex dynasty team, would you prioritize Bo Nix over Michael Penix in case one of my quarterbacks, Mahomes or Burrow, goes down because he has a better chance to play this year, Bo Nix?

Or do you not care about having a backup quarterback with two stars goes down because he has a better chance to play this year, Bo Nix? Or do you not care about having a backup quarterback with two stars and pick someone like Ricky Pearsall or Blake Corum or another position? So that's the only two quarterbacks that he has? Apparently. I would take Nix. I mean, it's not just this year. I mean, we may not see Michael Penix for three or four years, you know, based on how Kirk Cousins potentially performs.

So I would rather have Nix. I'll take a player at the other position. And if calamity happens and I lose one of my homes in Borough, I will make a trade, find a quarterback to fill that gap. You're also more likely to trade. It's like worst case scenario in a super flex maybe you go a couple weeks starting only one quarterback it's a disadvantage but maybe the scoring makes up for it he didn't tell us what the scoring was if it's four point

for passing touchdown if it's full ppr you might be able to start somebody else and not feel it too badly yeah i would much rather have the quarterback there. There's also more trade potential for that quarterback too. Real quick. I mean, if he's good. Yeah. This is the other problem. Like if Bo Nix plays,

but he isn't good, is he really better than another option? A good flex. Most quarterbacks will outscore most other players. It's a reflex. I, I mostly agree, but even bad quarterbacks can be worse than quality flex players.

Depends on the scoring. Do you have conviction about who you think will be better? I just got the most Dan text of Dan text. I know, right? Dan is always on vacation. It's absolutely amazing. Can I say it? Yeah, sure. I'm never going to pass up an opportunity to embarrass dan go ahead so we're in a uh rookie only draft for dynasty league that dave myself and dan and adam is loosely associated with it because i made him part of my team right um i just don't share the winnings with um but uh dan's on the clock second pick of the draft keith is the commissioner he

started the draft this morning a slow draft so i texted dan jokingly i said dan's holding up the draft and the person on our staff that always makes fun of him i said he made me send that text um not adam and uh and his reply back was on vacation so i'll need all the reminders i can get yeah i mean that's so dan it's so dan yeah well hope you have fun on your five vacations, Dan. All right. So anyway, do you have a, do you, do you feel confident in who's going to be better in three years?

Pennix or Knicks? In three years? Yeah. Knicks. Knicks will have more numbers cause he'll play more. I'm not sure he'll be in the league as a starter in three years i don't mean overall in the first two years of his career i mean in 2020 right he theoretically has a two-year head start on penix to prove that he he can play in this league i think he might just be like an okay starter i don't think he'll i don't think his numbers will be huge. Okay, from Seth.

Where is Seth from? Seth is from Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. I'd like you to bring up in a show how you would rate Kyle Pitts if Cousins or Pennix balm out, which I think was supposed to be ball out, unless they have like facial creams, and Pitts is the number one target.

What is his upside? And I'll ask you guys, do you think there's actually a chance that pits could lead the team in targets? Yes. Sure. If London gets hurt. No,

that if London does not get hurt, I don't really, I don't see it personally. Do you guys? Yeah. Me neither. I wouldn't bet on it, but it could certainly happen.

I mean, you know, he's an elite level talent that just hasn't put it all together yet. I don't know if he's the same guy as he was when he came out. I wonder if the injury that he suffered has just zapped him a little bit.

I'm probably not going to have Pitts in many of my leagues this year. Oh, boo. All right, so we talked about how we wouldn't be surprised if, I think it was Jamie, about how we wouldn't be surprised if I think it was Jamie, right? You wouldn't be surprised with Kyle pits for tight end one. So what you said on Monday. Yeah.

Dave, what do you think is his upside? And that's not necessarily his real realistic upside, but it's in the realm of possibility. But what do you think is his upside, Dave? I think he's got upside to be top four. I'd be a little hard pressed to say he'd be the number one tight end.

I just, I, I got to see it. He's he's Missouri now he's, he's got to show me. And usually players that I have that attitude with, I don't draft a lot of, particularly those who are popular. And I think pits is going to be pretty popular. I bet there's going to be at least three or four dudes or ladies in every draft that target pits. And I'm just not going to be pretty I bet there's going to be at least three or four dudes or ladies in every draft that target pits and I'm just not going to be one of those dudes or ladies that'll do that type of thing okay they're always still get drafted as tight end five so depending on when that tight end comes off the board right and that's not going to be me either so I agree I'd like I'd rather have King K let's go next one as Mr. Popinski Soda Popinski in our chat says, Dan is definitely the type of guy to send a margarita selfie in the group chat. Yeah, shirtless.

All right. From Bad Books, I like to participate in the waiver wire pretty aggressively in the first few weeks of the season. Could each of you name a cheap player who we need to see hit the field? Someone who is lightning in a bottle or an easy drop

in the first few weeks for the guy who is... I don't know for the guy who is lightning in a bottle or an easy drop in the first few weeks for the guy who is i don't know for the guy who is what but all right so someone you're picking up off the waiver wire or no he's looking for a guy to stash to begin the year and after two or three weeks if he doesn't show you anything it's dump city i mean it's almost every rookie running back oh yeah that they may not get playing time. Yeah, you'd hate to do that, though, and then the guy ends up pulling an Alvin Kamara. Well, I don't know.

He could be holding Kendrick Miller for the whole season. Yeah, that's true. Or Roshan Johnson. I mean, there's examples both ways of that. I think there'll be a lot of leads. And it's probably more likely that the guy that you pick is going to be someone who doesn't contribute, just the nature of the beast. What about Kamani Vidal as the top rookie running back to highlight here? I mean, you have Marshawn Lloyd, Tyrone Tracy, Kamani Vidal.

I mean, they're all in similar situations where they're not going to open the season as a starter. You can certainly see a path to easy playing time, whether injury or poor performance of the guy in front of them, but they could also just be stuck in these sort of smaller roles, you know, and never materialize. You know, the, the thing you're, you're looking for, you, you mentioned that, you know, maybe the best one in, in Camara, but you know, Tajay Spears last year was very productive fantasy option at times. it just wasn't consistent. Right. How about this name, Jahan Dotson?

Yeah. We know he's talented. If he gets off to a slow start, you'll have flashbacks to last year. You'll cut him like a ribbon. But if he gets off to a good start, it could end up being just an awesome awesome value because that offense should have better passing than it had last year just not as voluminous one guy that i don't i don't think is done necessarily maybe could have

a better year is brandon cooks i think he's a good late late round pick your last wide receiver maybe he's 30 but they're just like, if it all, if it doesn't all go to lamb again, there's room for cooks to be still the number two receiver. I saw two things in regards to the Cowboys receiving core one. I had to make a decision about who to drop in our dynasty draft because we have to do our address before the draft starts.

And, uh, I have Michael Thomas on that team. And there was a report that maybe the Cowboys, or I think it was Fansite, that the Cowboys should take a chance on Thomas just because he's cheap and can still provide something if he's healthy.

And the other one was that the Cowboys are expecting more from Jalen Tolbert once again. So how much of that will impact somebody like Brandon Cooks? Yep, we'll see with him. Got to see that to believe it. Okay, next email is from Andrew from? Lamar, Texas. I'm in a seven-player PPR, one quarterback keeper league.

Once a player is drafted, you can keep them forever with no penalty. I have JSN, and it doesn't seem like the fantasy community is so high on him anymore. They seem to be lower on JSN than Flowers, Pickens, Kincaid, etc. Is it time to cut or trade JSN? Is JSN already a baked burger? Here are my five keepers. He can only keep two more. He's got Richardson, DK Metcalf, Barkley, ETN, and Pukanakua. So if you

could only pick two of the following, who are you choosing and why? And it's basically who he just said. He has JSN, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, and Jamison Williams. And remember, you can keep them forever. It's one, because you're keeping Kincaid.

I would lean Pickens. I would too. I like those two. Kincaid and Pickens. Now, if you can maybe, because you've got some good options there, if you can maybe package two players, like Pickens and JSN for an upgrade

or something like that, I would explore it. Okay, how about a fantasy lifer? I'm reaching out to you for advice in my dynasty league. We're in our fifth year, not a super flex, half PPR, two receivers, two running backs, two flex. Okay, so at running back, he has Jameer Gibbs, and then he needs help big time. I've been getting offers for Jameer Gibbs, and then he needs help big time. I've been getting offers for Jameer Gibbs.

One offer was Jonathan Taylor, Jahan Dotson, and the ninth overall pick for Jameer Gibbs, my late second round pick and third round pick. What do you think? I would do it. You'd take Taylor? Mm-hmm. Oh, half point ppr you'd rather okay you'd rather give me the ninth overall do you think benson's gonna be there because now you're getting

it's one qb first of all jay you do like you one qb right yeah you do like uh gibbs better than taylor in a vacuum and dynasty, right? Of course. Okay. But you're getting the ninth overall pick. Um, but it's not a great draft for running backs.

Like I don't think he's getting Jonathan Brooks. So if, if you're planning on going with a running back with that ninth pick, I wouldn't do it personally, but you're still getting a very good player and you're, you know, you could always, the,

the capital for receivers. Like if you get a receiver that you hit on, cause that's where the Thomas McConkie range and one of those guys hits and you're receiving core is good. You could trade that for running back. Yeah. Yes. Uh, right. Okay. So Jamie says, do it, Dave. I'm leaning toward doing it. It. Taylor's got two years on Gibbs. I love the talent still with Taylor, and that's still going to be a team that runs a ton, and it's not full PPR.

I think Jamie has to leave. I got time for a couple more. Okay. Marty, where is he from? What is it? Pine Valley? Twin Pines? Yeah.

Somewhere in California. Okay. Half PPR. Hill Valley. Hill Valley. Goodness. Oh, come on, Dave. Half PPR, two running backs, two receivers, one flex, no tight ends.

Choose two keepers for one year only. Brees, Bijan, CeeDee Lamb. You got to get rid of one of those guys? Yeah. Only keep two. I'm getting rid of Bijan. How much older is Brees than Bijan? One year?

It's for one year keeper. It's a one year keeper. Oh, it's only for one year anyway yeah yeah it's bye-bye bijan how about that okay guys maybe i think it would be bye-bye bruce if it's forever but it's not oh yeah baby here come the fantasy cops we got one from lucas lucas is in a 12-team Superflex Dynasty League. They just had their second season, their first rookie draft.

It was a three-round rookie draft with four taxi spots. After the completion of our rookie draft, it was not set for waivers. It was a free-for-all, picking up remaining players. The draft was a slow draft and concluded later in the evening, so not everyone had a chance at picking up players. The draft was a slow draft and concluded later in the evening. So not everyone had a chance

at picking up players. We all realized that having waivers run would have been the appropriate way to go here. Should the right thing to do be to have the commissioner return all those players and reset the rosters to what they are and then have waivers run? Or is it just a lesson learned and have it fixed for next year? We've had this happen to us in the Dynasty draft that I referenced with Dan holding up the draft. Dave and I were the two biggest abusers of this, where we would pick up players the minute that waivers were open,

because that's what was available to us. And then he said, because some people complained, and understandably so, I didn't have any pushback to it, I don't think Dave did either, that they said they're going to reset the players that were added off waivers and

put it back. So it was just a slight oversight by the commissioner. We weren't trying to cheat. There were players that were available. We were allowed to pick them up. We tried to do it. And the minute that it was said they're putting those guys back, no big deal. Cosign. I like that.

And now you have the opportunity to make it even better and do it as fab instead of waivers. Yep. Yes. Which we have in our. Thank you for your fantasy cops email. Thank you for all of your emails and your listening and viewing of our show. All of you have a wonderful three-day weekend. We're going to talk to you on Tuesday.

I believe we have four episodes per week going forward now, so get excited for that. And we'll talk to you on Tuesday on Fantasy Football Today.