Fantasy Football Today - Seven players you might want to SELL HIGH ahead of Week 3; Deep Waiver Claims you could make TODAY (FFT Dynasty)

Episode Date: September 18, 2024

Devon Achane, Derek Carr, JK Dobbins. These are three names that have popped early on the Fantasy Radar, is it time to sell high? Heath Cummings and Jacob Gibbs break down some roster moves you should make before your week three matchups. Subscribe to Jacob Gibbs Newsletter! (02:00) - Three Questions for Jacob Gibbs (15:09) - Sell High Or No Lie (15:30) - Nico Collins (20:28) - Devon Achane (23:35) - Baker Mayfield & Derek Carr?' (26:24) - Baker, vs Dak vs David Carr? (28:26) - Trade Baker or Derek Carr for JJ McCarthy or Drake Maye? (29:11) - JK Dobbins (32:01) - Chris Godwin (33:36) - Rashid Shaheed (35:25) - Deep Dynasty Waivers Adds (44:25) - Andy Dalton is back, should you add him? Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings. I'm joined today by Jacob Gibbs. We're going to have a good time. We've got a new game, sell high or no lie. I didn't rip that off from Adam Azer at all. Completely made it up on my own. We've got actual Dynasty waiver ads that might matter today. And of course, it's Victory Lap Tuesday. Jacob Gibbs is here.

We've got to talk Nico Collins. We've got to talk Devon Achan. You can find him on Twitter at JAGibbs underscore 23. Before we do any Victory Laps on players, I need a Victory Lap on the newsletter. It's been fantastic. Tell everyone If you just Google that, you'll find it'll be the first link. It's free. And I will deliver my thoughts to your email inbox six days a week. Saturdays, we get to chill and you get a break from me. But every other day, I'm going to be in your inbox. Do DFS if you're into that. And there's lots of actionable takeaways for Dynasty players as well. Every Monday, I'll break down everything I just learned watching film and then digging into the stats as well. And then on Fridays, the Friday is probably my favorite aspect of the newsletter. I do an interactive thing where I got a Google form and you can go in and tell me what quarterback, what running back, what receiver, what tight end you want to learn about. So if there's anything you're curious about, you can just go talk to me. And I do read all of their responses. And then it's a chance to just kind of talk about all the players that FFT

newsletters are wanting to learn about. So I think that would especially be good for dynasty players. Cause we, we go deep. We go. Absolutely. We've got in, you can find in the chat, we've got a link to subscribe to the newsletter. I agree with you, Dylan.

I also love a Jacob Gibbs Dynasty episode. Bondi says, Jacob is the GOAT. Wow. Getting all the love this morning. And we're going to keep it going. We start with three questions for our guests. And I'm going to kind of ask the same question, maybe in three different ways. I feel like there were three offenses and offensive systems that you talked about a lot coming into this season, and they've been successful to a

variety of degrees. Well, two of them have been successful to a variety of degrees. One of them is kind of face planted. I want to talk about those three systems. If things are kind of what you expected, what's new and what we think that means for the rest of this season and maybe beyond. Let's start with the Arizona Cardinals. I've got DMs from Jacob Gibbs discussing run blocking schemes, and Marvin Harrison had one absolutely awful game, one incredible wide receiver one game. What have you seen from this Arizona offense? How do you feel about the pieces? I love this Arizona offense, man. I love Drew Petzing. Him and Clint Kubiak were like the two offensive coordinators that I was the most excited to see what they had in store for

us this year. And man, it has been exciting what they've had in store for us. Arizona in particular, like they are so creative. Drew Petzing, the offensive coordinator, they're so creative with the run game. And so what I was DMing heath about i was reaching out to anyone who i thought might be interested and it turned out it was basically no one is that they're running these pin poles um or pole lead it might also be described that way um where they're getting the guards and the centers out and space with tight ends out in space really arizona has been so interesting to me starting from the moment they took tip ryman third round tight end i'm like man this this team needs so much on the defensive side of the ball they have trey mcbride is this truly just that drew pretzing loves the run and he's taking like a guy who's going to help with inline blocking like that doesn't make sense to me with

this type of draft capital and the more that i thought about it i was like i bet it feels like there's got to be some way that he wants to weaponize this guy as a run blocker. Like maybe he's going to be using him, uh, aligned in different areas more than just tight end. Um, and then I see right away in week one, they're using this particular type of running run blocking 60% of their plays in week one, which is the highest of any team during the time I have the data dating back to 2017 in any game. Um, And they're really, it's, they're getting these tight ends out in space and setting the edge. And it almost broke into a few big plays in week one, didn't quite materialize in terms of the execution on the blocks. But in week two, we did see a couple of big plays for

James Conner on these type of runs. If you go to Nate Tice's Twitter or mine, you'll see some of these runs where it's like they'll motion James Conner behind the quarterback like he's going out to the left to play receiver, be in the slot where, and then he comes back in and takes a handoff and they've got the tight ends pulling and everything. And there's a huge running lay on the right side. It's like, wow, this is cool. I haven't seen anybody else do this. And then also they're getting, they've done it each game.

Now they've tried it at least once. They almost got a touchdown in the last game where they're pulling, they've done it each game now. They've tried it at least once. They almost got a touchdown in the last game where they're pulling everything over to one side and you see the defense, the whole defense flow to that side. But then Kyler, rather than giving it to the running back, keeps it and goes the other way. And they get like a one-on-one with him where it's like if he wins the one-on-one,

it's just a walk-in touchdown. So yeah, I absolutely love Drew Petzing. I love everything that's going on arizona train mcbride is the man all the exciting per route target rate stuff that we saw for mcbride last year has sustained through two games even with marvin harrison there which is really exciting for him um i think marvin harrison jr is really really good i'm a little bit concerned about his role because he's being used so deep down the field right and if you look historically at players that have a similar type of average

route depth so that's the average depth in the line of scrimmage at which their initial cut and the route is coming typically those players aren't able to have a high target share um enough to be like fantasy relevant like truly like the top player in terms of ppr point production in a season is george pickens last year right he's a wider series 30. i think i think that's like that's an interesting thing with both and neighbors for a different reason but with both harris and and neighbors as rookies and you talk about this a lot you love these types of guys you're gonna give me spike weeks and you're going to give me eight point weeks, that's perfectly fine. The spike weeks will win me weeks and the eight point weeks don't matter. Like you're going to die anyway, right? But I do think like coming off

of week two or coming off of week one, it was really easy to think the rookie wide receivers are going to be disappointing. Coming off of week two, it's really easy to think the rookie wide receivers are both top 12 wide receivers. The truth is they're probably just going to be disappointing coming off week two it's really easy to think the rookie wide receivers are both top 12 wide receivers the truth is they're probably just going to have smash weeks and they're going to have trouble weeks of both of them and harrison because of his profile neighbors because of his quarterback and his offense um and i think that's okay they might still both finish about where we drafted them it's just there's going to be ups and downs i'm super interested to watch neighbors this week against that browns defense that's been pretty good against the pass and has a great pass rush

and i think like might give daniel jones all kinds of troubles um and just start whoever's playing the washington commanders always uh in the passing game. Let's get to the Seattle Seahawks. We're kind of regressively, I guess, getting more questionable here. But Seattle week one wasn't great. Week two was pretty fantastic. What I'm most interested in was the wide receiver usage with Lockett, DK, and JSN. Have we learned anything? Or is this just going to be an offense where we can't really predict on a week-to-week basis

who the top wide receiver is? My guess is that this Seattle team as a whole is going to be fairly inconsistent. New head coach, new offensive play caller, first time in the NFL. JSN is a relatively new player. But I think the highs are really exciting what we saw last week um is really really exciting we saw for the first time really in his career dk metcalf being used on horizontal routes um and i just loved loved loved the

layering of the route concepts that we saw from r Grubb, the play caller for Seattle. And Geno Smith is somebody I really do believe in. And he was able to attack basically every blade of grass with that offense last week. And so I don't know if I believe in the offensive line necessarily to hold up and that's going to impact the ability to make these full field reads for Gino. But yeah, I think absolutely like there's potential for what we saw last week to be sustainable going forward. It might not be super consistent, but this is,

I mean, we've been waiting for it with Jackson Smith and Jigba and this was as legit as it can get. Like this was not just a few big plays or anything. He was attacking all over the field, downfield winning in a variety of ways. He's he's not just this you know horizontal runner catch and run guy that he's been used to pass with shane walter he can really he's really slippery and hard to keep your hands on when you're press covering him and he can get down the field and win especially like

on outbreaking routes to the perimeter he's really really, really good. So you don't think that coming off of this game, it was like a last gasp of, I drafted JSN so high last year, I finally have a chance to get something for him before he just goes into oblivion. I wouldn't, no. To me, it's like him and Quentin Johnson are both like, maybe that's the case.

And man, to me, Jackson Smith and J.B. is the one who really looks legit. Okay, you said the magic name shane waldron we're going to get to him in just a second but i do want to squeeze in just a quick question from jose because i think it's a great question um that i know we're not entirely going to like trends are favoring the run game early this year it's the worst passing start to a season maybe of your lifetime um of my of my career um it's been absolutely awful should competitive dynasty teams target running backs or receivers like are you changing

your opinion and i think this even goes into like best the best ball like it was 29 wide receivers in the first 36 picks and then oh every all the points are being scored on the ground and there's not as much passing as we were hoping for does that change anything for you so i do think um that this is real that offenses have been um and continue to be adjusting to what's happening on the defensive side of things which is you know the defenses are being way way smarter over the past like three or four years especially and are orienting everything they do around stopping the pass. It's not as much like tough guy, defensive minded

football, hard nose, you know, we just got to stop the run, even though that doesn't make any sense analytically, like that, that would be your main emphasis. There's hardly any of that in the NFL anymore. It's very much about, you know, you're seeing so much dropping back into two high safety coverage shells and slowing down passing games, limiting deep passing. And we're seeing people like Sean McVay and really a lot of coaches now lean into bigger, more heavier fronts that are attacking with a run more and more frequently. So yeah, I think running back value is up. At the same time, like from a strategy standpoint i do think people are probably overreacting a little bit right now this is the time when it's going to look the best for

running backs especially veteran running backs that you drafted high that are bell cows rookies are carrying pads there's hardly any rookie running backs are even playing um and running backs are healthy for the most part um and so like we've already seen a few of them dropping and i think that's going to continue to happen um so i i personally wouldn't be chasing any of these big running back performances if you've got them that's great you could even consider selling them um i think um that's just that's how i play is like i kind of lean into the chaos of anti-fragility and like i i want i how i approach dynasty running back is as cheap as possible. And I want as many shots as possible on my bench of guys who could step into a role if somebody else goes down. So, and I think like that fragility argument, even an, and Adam was

trying to make this case in the preseason. We mostly just laughed him off about how, you know, there's been more high end wide receiver injuries recently than there have been high end running back injuries. And yeah, we lost Christian McCaffreyrey but we lost cooper cup and pukunakua and now devo samuel and it seems like all the wide receivers are getting hurt this year as well yeah hopefully that stops at some point okay let's talk about the bears i am hoping that you are going to give me like the only case for optimism i can make is like caleb williams has played two games rookie quarterbacks are generally terrible he's probably going to get better but i hate the scheme deandre swift looks terrible the offensive line looks terrible dj moore is already showing signs

of frustration with passes not being anywhere close to him. I really feel bad about this Bears offense. Make me feel better. Yeah, no, I don't think there's any way to watch it and be objective and not feel bad. It's been bad. What I will say is that the matchups have been rough. I really do have a lot of respect for Tennessee's defense. I think that they're underrated.

And then Houston's defense is definitely underrated. Houston's defense is nasty, man Houston's defense is nasty man like incredible edge rushing combination really really really really good against the run they were like one of the best defenses against the run last year um yeah so I there's that I think that it's very like real that like rookie quarterback coming in and facing two defenses like this that just disrupt things throw off the. You can see that clearly the timing is not there. I would expect that it's going to get better. I feel pretty confident about Caleb as a prospect, like a lot more confident than I have about Bryce, for instance,

or even like Jaden Daniels. I have fewer questions. So my guess is that it's going to get better. I, you know, Roman Dunzay will hopefully get healthier as the year goes on. Akinem Allen will be back and healthier. I don't feel a lot of confidence in Shane Waldron either. In terms of some of the underlying stuff, he is like playing with a little bit more pace

than I expected. I was kind of worried that he might play super, super slow. They've been slightly above average in pace of play and they are doing some like motion and play action and stuff like that. It's not, it's not as bad as it could be. It's not, this isn't Matt Canada.

This isn't Cliff Kingsbury. And if we're at that point in the conversation, then like, yeah, I don't know. That's, that's my last ditch ever to try to make it feel better. It's like,

it's not the absolute worst. Yeah. It's not good. Hopefully for dynasty purposes, I'm not, I wouldn't be worried at all. You wouldn't be worried about Caleb. I i do think that the like dj's a little bit different situation because he's at that point where he's kind of right in the middle of his career

and so a down year can negatively impact and deandre swift could just completely see his dynasty value turn into dust um that's probably the second most interesting thing for me is like swift's inability to run the ball the colts inability to tackle or stop anyone from running the ball. Like if Swift can't get it going this week, it might just be over. Let's take a short break and we'll get to some sell-highs. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save

you from unexpected downtime financial penalties and keep you safe don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money click before you dig ensure your next project is safe visit ontarioonecall.ca it's free it's easy it's the law data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. So we're going through sell high or no lie. No lie meaning I believe everything that's happened so far. There's no reason to sell high. And I've got these in a certain order. But man, it was like the Twitter machine read my mind this morning that read my rundown. They knew what was coming. So we had some Nico Collins, maybe sell high, maybe not sell high enough questions on Twitter this morning. And I just want to start with those because he was definitely on the list. This is partially an opportunity for you to just like

take a victory lap on how incredibly awesome Nico Collins is, but everybody's got a price, right? So this guy was often, he has his name on x is john doe like the literal john doe someone offered him their first second and davante smith for nico collins in dynasty is that selling high enough yeah i think so i mean i love nico to death i think he's like approaching rapidly approaching like top five receiver in Dynasty range. But I also am excited about Devante and Kellen Moore and the fit in the offense there. And you get a first and second back. I think that's fair. No, I think I would definitely take the trade.

And I like Nico Collins. Someone was offered Brushy Rice and JSN for Nico Collins. I don't think I would do that. I don't like giving up the best player in the deal unless you like really feel overwhelmingly like you're winning. And maybe you do here. Maybe Rice, you know,

Rice has a, has a 50, 50 chance at least of beating Nico. He really might beat him this year in points, especially in PPR. But I just feel so, so much better about Nico's like actual player profile i i think like rice if they have a short yardage guy like if kelsey is playing like he is able to

or if someone else at some point comes in and is someone who can actually get targets in the short yardage area then we might see that 28 target rate fall to like 23%. Well, and I had somebody, I saw somebody really smart on Twitter said this, and I do this all the time because I can't remember who said it, but obviously things have been not great for Tank Dell through two weeks. And Nico Collins is basically the best wide receiver

or second best wide receiver in fantasy. And the tweet was something like, the gap between these two is not going to be near this big all season long. Go buy Tank Dell. Does that mean that Nico Collins is probably not going to be near this big all season long go by tank dell does that mean that nico collins is probably not going to be quite this good all year long either or do you think he legitimately might be a top five fantasy wide receiver i think he legitimately might be a

top five fantasy receiver i think nico has the ability to go for like 2 000 yards um he's he's insane he's open all the time he wins every area of the field um i i i think there's dwayne mcfarland who said that and he's a smart guy i love dwayne respect dwayne and his work and it definitely makes sense that over time things could even out with the target distribution um but man you got this phenomenal athlete who can win at all levels attached to a quarterback who's willing and wants to attack all levels of the field um i just think don't overthink it like yeah i i do i do kind of feel like i hope you sold stefan diggs after he scored two touchdowns on like five and a half yards in week one because i don't think that's going to end very well but yeah nico looks outstanding um to obviously top 12 dynasty wide receiver how many

how many guys would you take straight up over nico and dynasty just one for one uh justin jefferson cd lamb and that's really the only like after that it's a toss-up between him and aj brown i'm on our saint brown jim r chase marvin harrison jr gary wilson like malik neighbors i think all those players could go either way i this if you search my twitter name with nico collins you'll find just like tweets on tweets on tweets of like him being it's historically elite in so many ways and in year four we've seen him only improve on all of that information all that data that I use to support that claim is like him doing stuff that's unprecedented. No one has really done this. He's doing it at a younger age than anyone else.

He's just continuing to build on that. Like he really, really checks out. And I will say like this is where the projections process can get you into a little bit of trouble. Because as a rule, if you look at a guy who in year three averages 11.9 yards per target and pretty much Tyree kills the yards per target goat at around 10, and he averages 16.2 yards per catch

and somehow catches 73% of his passes at the same time, you're like, okay, there's obviously some efficiency regression coming. And you look at the first two weeks of 2024, and his catch rate's gone up, and his yards per catch has gone up, and his yards per target have gone up. And, oh, yeah, his touchdown rate's gone up. Like everything that statistically, over a large sample size, you would say this thing is not going to happen again.

He's actually been better at it. Everything is close. He's got the play caller who like builds this type of efficiency and he has the quarterback who like could be great mvp candidate and he himself is in like otherworldly talent like everything's in place for him to just crush any efficiency metrics let's let's get your other um victory lap out of the way devon hn sell high in Dynasty at this point. Like everybody's fully on board with him now maybe being a top five running back.

Or no lie, he actually is a top five running back and it's fine that the Dolphins are giving him 30 touches. It's going to work out great. It's no lie from a talent perspective. I am nervous about all the touches he got last week. I don't understand that at all. So like, yeah,

I guess if you can sell him and like get a trade where you get Bijan or Brees Hall or Jameer back or something like that, like then sure. Because like, yeah, that was a little bit concerning. And the guy, he did show one season in Texas A&M where he was able to be a complete bell cow.

But in that season, he missed two, three games. And I think that's probably where we're at. It seems like McDaniel is willing to ride him. He came out and said after the game that he actually would like to give him more touches. And so I think that we're going to see him get the opportunity to be that, just truly like the RB1 in fantasy. I don't know if he'll be able to hold up. We've seen him do it once where he didn't have a massive injury,

but he did get banged up. And obviously last year he got banged up twice. We've never seen him be fully healthy over a full season workload, but really that's pretty rare, honestly. I'd like you to talk a little bit about the role in the passing game for HN because that's been the thing that's mattered. It's hilarious. Last year, he averaged 7.8 yards per carry. He's under half of that so far this year, and things are going fantastic from a fantasy football perspective because of the fact that he's caught 14 of 14 targets in two games and turned those into 145 yards. Been spectacular in the passing game. And oh yeah, his new quarterback, Skyler Thompson, throws about a third of his passes to running backs.

So that's not changing anytime soon. What have you liked about A-Chan in the passing game? Yeah, so much of it is design stuff too. You might remember at some point, I think I told you this, that he had the same number of designed targets as Rashad White last year, even though White played the full

season and ran more routes than any running back because they're just really intentional about getting the ball in his hands. And so yeah, he has 145 receiving yards. He has like 175 yards after the catch because a lot of them are just short little dumps from Tua to him, just getting him out in space. Like we talked about Arizona's ability to scheme up players out in space. Nobody does it better than Miami. They're basically setting up almost like a kick return out in space for A-Chain on some of these plays. But also in his own right, he has been a really good receiver. He had a good receiving profile at Texas A&M. He had 60 receptions over his final two seasons there. And then last year's target per outrun rate was one of the highest among

qualified running backs. This year, it's been the same thing. He's extremely efficient with his receptions. And yeah, if you get that, then it might not even, it might not even need the rushing efficiency. And if he starts actually breaking off like long rushing touchdowns, like we saw last year, then it's like, Oh, 60 points within reach any given week. Yeah. It's kind of crazy right now. Let's go to the quarterbacks. And these are guys that you're not going to be quite as excited about because they're not young. We've seen Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr

in the NFL for a long time. We've never seen them quite like this. Although Baker at the end of last year had a pretty hot stretch as well. These are the top two quarterbacks in fantasy football. I know, like, I'm not asking you no lie. They're going to continue to be the top two quarterbacks in fantasy football. I know, like, I'm not asking you no lie. They're going to continue to be the top two quarterbacks in fantasy football, but do you think they're both difference makers in super flex leagues? Like, or are they just

like fine QB twos as they have been for the most part? I think that they each could be legitimately like league winners in superlex leagues because of the price. They were probably so easy to get. Nobody wanted Derek Carr. And so I don't think you necessarily have to sell them. If you can just ride it, it's like in real life having a rookie quarterback who's productive, and you get him on that rookie contract. It's kind of a cheating situation there.

Of the two, Baker is the one whose talent I feel more confident in. And when you watch him, he's just playing so well. His pocket navigation, his ability to just extend plays and create things. And he has awesome receivers. I really love Jalen McMillan, the rookie that they brought in. But Derek Carr's system in New Orleans, man, it's so exciting right now what Clint Kubiak is doing there. He's truly just like, it feels like one of us on twitter got a chance to like call plays one of us who's just been like nerding out about you know pre-snap motion because it's like truly

can you just do this can you just spam these cheat codes over and over and it works and like it kind of seems like it does um he's he's using pre-snap motion and play action and qb rollouts all these past game efficiency boosters more than anyone else in the NFL. And so far, even the Dallas Cowboys can't stop it. Nobody seems to be able to. And Derek Carr is playing really, really well. And I really like his receivers too. I'm a huge Shaheed fan and Chris Olave hasn't been big production yet, but man, that guy is as legit as it comes. He's so good at everything. So no concern at all about Olave that this system is maybe de-emphasizing him it's just he just it just hasn't happened for him yet that's my guess is it

it's a two-game sample size when I watch it in the route concepts I feel pretty good about what they're doing I was really excited about Kubiak specific to Olave because of the way that he the way that those the Shanahan coaches have used players like Brendan Ayuk in the past. And I think as I've watched it, there are, there's a lot more nuance to what Alavi is doing down the field than in the past. He just said the ball hasn't been delivered to him because other players have been open too. We'll see. If he's not the first read very often, then that might be a problem. We'll see how it develops over a larger sample size.

But right now, to me, it looks like he could be making big plays just as easily as Shahid is. So let's talk about some veterans that we thought clearly were going to be better than these two at the start of the year. If you're a dynasty contender, any chance you're trying – Baker versus Carr versus Dak, where are you at on that? Yeah, I think it's still got to be Dak. They're going to be passing so much in Dallas, and

I think we could see him basically kind of do exactly what he did last year. I think it's got to be Dak. What about Baker versus Carr versus Goff, who has been really disappointing from a fantasy perspective the first two weeks of the season? I'm a little bit worried about Goff um and i'm a little bit worried about just his ability to adapt to what defenses are doing where they're disguising more things and he doesn't have as much clarity on what's happening pre-snap and i don't know goff just seems like he's somebody as we get more and more smart defensive coordinators he's somebody who might be a quarterback that can get figured out um and people can just put pressure on him and make him uncomfortable

that's what it's looked like so far he's really just not played very well but man he's got he's got the perfect setup his weapons are so awesome we see jameson williams now emerging as well um and i love the offensive environment there like even though the offense hasn't been putting points on the board they're putting up crazy numbers of total plays. Um, and that's all about the offensive situation and like what they're doing with Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell. Like it's just a print shop for fantasy points.

And you have to think that golf is going to run better than he has. Um, I think I would go golf over both of them. Okay. That's crazy. It's even a thought. I think that there are obviously people who in Superflex Dynasty Leagues had Baker or had Carr and not actually contenders this year. They just like they were going to hope that somebody needed a quarterback. Well, now I think you're definitely trying to sell these guys

because we don't have a great confidence that Baker or Carr are going to continue this for 15 more weeks, much less continue it into the 25 or 26 season. You would, I assume, happily trade either one of these guys for Drake May if you're not actually contending this year? What about J.J. McCarthy? Yeah, I think so. But if you're not contending, yeah.

But my brother and I were just talking about this. What happens to J.J. McCarthy if Sam Darlan keeps playing while the Vikings keep winning? I truly don't know what would happen in that scenario. Would they just trade McCarthy to the Panthers or something? Yeah. I mean, he could get Jordan loved. Yeah. And it just takes three years before we see him, I guess. Let's let's, let's move on to a different position.

We've got a couple of players left on this list. J.K. Dobbins. I there's maybe, I don't think there's not a storyline that I like more this year than J.K. Dobbins just coming back after multiple major leg injuries. The most efficient rusher in the NFL before he got hurt. The most efficient rusher in the NFL after he got hurt.

In fact, he's even better. I just put in the week three running back preview. He's averaging more than five yards per carry before contact. Great system. Great rusher. Now, he's had a couple of great matchups to start the year as well. And he's had multiple major leg injuries. Is this a sell high or no lie for J.K. Dobbins? I think it makes sense for it to be a sell high. It would be really unprecedented for him to be able to maintain this kind of workload and efficiency

and not wear down or have an injury um just given the history of other running backs who've had anything similar to what he's had in terms of the historical injuries but man it's so fun and i don't know what you're gonna get i don't like i feel like people aren't going to give you much for dobbins i could be wrong maybe you can find a container who's who's selling or who's buying um have you seen where dobins is at like KTC or anything like that? I'm really curious where the community is at with him. No. And I'm, I generally update my trade charts like the day, the day after we do the podcast. So I haven't even got mine updated yet, but I think you're like, it's just, this is one of those things where it's almost hard to capture where the static point is because it's so fluid.

I feel like every time that J.K. Dobbins gets traded, his metric's going to move up because he's traded for more than wherever he's at on that list. I was just talking to my brother about potentially trading for Dobbins, actually. Him and Deontay Johnson got put on the trade block from the same team, and we kind of need flex help. Right. And we want to contend this year. And I'm like, what would you even give for Dobbins? Like a fourth, a third, or something like that? That feels like it's not.

I think you're going to have to give at least a second. Yeah, and I'm not willing to. I don't think that makes sense. I think you're definitely a sell high then. I don't think any contend,, you're trading to a contender, obviously. And so you're talking about pick 20 through 24 and next year's rookie draft.

I don't think the team that had dominance was necessarily a contender. I think he was kind of trying. I'm saying you are. So the pick you were trading away. Yeah. So like, I, I think you're going to have to give up at least a second.

Um, and I, there is a possibility that this is the tricky point with a player like him is what is he worth if he does this just two more weeks? Then a lot more people believe it. Yeah. Yeah, I think I am so high then. All right. We'll sell high. I want to believe it.

There's nothing more fun. Harbaugh's so high then. All right. We'll sell. I want to believe that there's, there's nothing more fun. Harbaugh is so dorky. Like this is so fun. We've got Dobbins front flipping into the end zone, man. Like, yeah, this is hard to beat. We were hopeful with Chris Godwin in the slots and through two weeks, he is the number one wide receiver in fantasy football. I feel like every receiver who has played the commanders should have an asterisk by where they rank amongst receivers to this point. But he was fantastic last week and it wasn't against the commanders. Again, another wide receiver like DJ Moore. In fact, I think he's a year older than DJ Moore, who like isn't old yet.

But if something goes wrong, people are going to start looking at him with a side eye. Instead, everything's going right. Are you just writing this out with Chrisris godwin or is he a sell-high i think i would be writing it out because the the next three matchups are also ones where he could eat so denver we've got obviously patrick sirtan and that's you would assume he's going to be on mike evans so i would think we'll probably see things funneled to chris god then you have Philly and Atlanta who both kind of funnel things to the slot and so there's probably going to be if if he continues to play what is going to be even more belief in him I would think in a few weeks and that is the point at which I would be looking to sell because he really has had like about as good of matchups as it could get like

Washington and then Detroit who in week one gave up all that production to Cooper Cup from the slot. Now we've got Chris Godwin in the Cooper Cup role. Yeah. The matchups get much, much harder after that. He's got the Saints and then Baltimore and then Kansas City, San Francisco. Yeah.

I think I would be looking to sell him at some point, but I don't know if it's necessarily right now. And then final one, we talked about Derek Carr. We talked a lot about the Saints. Rashid Shahid has been the big benefactor at this point. And it's been such low pass volume that I think the door is still open to Shahid being a 20, 21, 22% target share guy and just being a starting wide receiver all year long. Where are you at on Shahid?

Sell high off of two really good performances or like we just found a new starting fantasy wide receiver? Yeah, I'm holding Shahid anywhere I have him. They're using him. The production has been mostly on deep routes, but they're using him around the line of scrimmage more than in the past they're they let him do some slants and stuff like that in week one they're running some ins and outs with

them um i think we could see a little bit more consistency than we're used to um but at the same time this offense is really really run heavy and so if the efficiency comes down then you might be dealing with you know a low number of targets without the big plays. And that is going to be frustrating. But in terms of his talent and my belief in Clint Kubiak, both of those are clear wins, like check marks. Yes, I do believe. So I'd be holding. I've had a big problem in terms of the weekly projections with the Saints.

Because you talk about how run heavy they are. They've barely played a real football game. Like it's, it's just been, so I would just like to see them in a competitive game for four quarters, please. So I could figure out exactly what it is that they would like to do. Let's take our second break.

Let's get to maybe the most exciting dynasty waiver wire of the year. That is absolutely terrifying. My heart's pounding like that was like shane waldron running the chicago bears offense i'm terrified uh let's let's talk about the waiver wire and let's start with your chiefs my chiefs everybody's chiefs unfortunately isaiah Chiefs. Unfortunately, Isaiah Pacheco broke his leg. He's out for the next six to eight weeks. Yikes. Kareem Hunt is maybe visiting the Chiefs right now. I should probably be checking Twitter and make sure that we haven't heard anything about that. Carson Steele is the presumed early downs rusher at this point. Samajay P the past catching back how are you handling these three backs on the waiver wire and do you think like this is dynasty and carsey carson steel is a rookie

do you think carson steel could actually be a starting fantasy running back for like multiple seasons multiple seasons uh i like if ipacheco's just gone, if he's just in this role, could he succeed? I think so. I don't think he's going to contribute much on passing downs necessarily, but I believe in what we've seen from the guy. This is just a random point that my dad brought up. Anecdoto.

Shout out, Dad. Yes. He's like, man, I watch Carson Steele, and I worry every time he touches the ball about him fumbling because he played at a small smaller level and he's always always fighting for these extra yards and he's so animated in the way that he does it and defenses are so much more sound the players now more than ever anytime i've watched football are like really always going for the punch out and like he's got that ball just out there when he's trying to gain

extra yards it's kind of like like marshallhawn Lloyd or someone like that who has phone problems and I was like that is interesting I wouldn't have thought about that like coming from a lower level where the tackling technique isn't quite as sound um he is always fighting for extra yards he gained more yards after contact than any running back across the 2021 to 2023 seasons at the collegiate level um was an absolute animal this preseason yards after contact and you see it on display even last week he didn't have a huge rushing number but he's breaking tackles and gaining yards in short yardage situations the team also was the Chiefs were trusting him they were giving him important carries at the end of the Ravens game they were giving him

carries in week two even before Pacheco went down i think they really do trust him and want him to be part of the game plan on short downs um so like i don't kareem doesn't do he doesn't really change much for me because that's that's where kareem hunt's value is right is like in the red zone and i think that the only way kareem is even getting on the field if he were to get signed is if we do see steel fumble well we have seen steel lose a fumble once already yeah he's run the ball nine times he's picked up 27 yards and he's lost a fumble yeah i don't think like i agree it's gonna be carson steel first but man you want to talk about fragility there's so many ways that that could go wrong and it could be anyone else. So I do think I'm probably making waiver ads for all three of these guys. I would prioritize them steel,

then P Ryan, then hunt. Would you agree with that order? Oh yeah. And I'm not like splashing the pot for Carson steel as I might for another running back that had a chance to be the running back for the next two months. I'm thinking maybe 20% of Fab in a deep dynasty league.

It's obviously more than that. He probably was already rostered in those leagues, though. Yeah, I'm a little bit more bullish on him. I would go a little bit higher than that. I think his team really likes him and was willing to trust him. Even after he fumbled last week, they were still giving him opportunities late in an important game. They had two carries.

They needed to just get the ball a little bit closer and kick a field goal, and they gave it to him. They didn't give it to Piran. I don't know. I think that's interesting. I don't think Samadji Piran has a rush attempt yet this year. I don't think so either. That's not been something they've wanted to do yet. So, yeah, expect this week.

Steele, I think, is a high-end flex for me. Don't expect much in the passing game, but make sure all three are rostered in your leagues. Deontay Foreman, where in the world did that come from? Jerome Ford completely dominates 79% of the running back opportunities in week one. Deontay Foreman starts and has twice as many carries as Jerome Ford in week two. Cam Akers may have some viability if Joe Mixon's ankle's okay. Not okay.

What did you think watching Foreman and Akers? I didn't think Foreman had any juice at all. Yeah, I think he could find it because he's looked decent even as recently as last year. Yeah, I was psyched when i saw the show notes because i had literally just made some claims for like one or two dollars on these guys and then i was like okay yeah these are exactly these are the guys this week so cam makers i think is going to get an opportunity um he fumbled as well but he looked really good this preseason i think he is perfectly suited for the zone rushing here the outside zone rushing and i think he could step in and be like 80 of joe mixon right away if damian pierce remains out so he's definitely somebody

that's worth an ad i wouldn't you know break the bank for him it is k makers it would be unlikely for him to be worth much um and mixon isn't mixon's expected this it's not like anything significant like i yeah i last i'd heard and and again this especially this time of week i could have missed something but we were still waiting on some results um with foreman and cleveland i i think i do think cleveland gets kind of frustrated with jerome ford always trying to bounce things and having being such a low success rate running back um i was actually at the during the projections process part of the reason that i was low on for Ford was that I was projecting Foreman to play a role. I thought he was kind of going to be like the Nick Chubb guy for them early in the season. Um, and then he got hurt

and didn't make the team. And so I was like, oh, it's over. But then they brought him back and I was like, okay, maybe. And here we see him in week two when, when, uh, strong goes down, they, they gave him a lot of work in the second half of that game. They're trying to win. And I think they just wanted successful runs to keep the offense on track so they could try to win that game. And that might be the case. They've got the Giants this week. That's a team they're probably going to be playing with the lead against

or at least playing a competitive game. And I think we might see a lot of Foreman again. So I think he's fine to pick up. I think you need to pick him up. I do, unless the numbers hasn't been updated yet, I do believe that Deontay Foreman had a 0% success rate in Week 2. He had 14 carries, and none of them were successful. But I also think what you said was right.

This is one of those situations where the coaches are looking for a guy to just go forward. And Jerome Ford is too busy trying to make big plays, like he did in week two when he picked up 64 yards on seven rush attempts. A couple wide receivers, Jalen Naylor, have a big opportunity if Justin Jefferson misses time. It doesn't sound like he's going to, but Naylor might be the wide receiver, too, for as long as Addison's out. And then Josh Reynolds, I guess is maybe Sean Payton's new favorite wide receiver making claims on either one of these guys. Naylor's fine to make a claim on if you have a roster spot for it. So like I described,

like I really want as many shots at running backs as possible in my binge. My binge is almost like, almost like 60, 70% running backs most of the time with only a few receivers sprinkled in. i really go pretty light at receiver overall in terms of the number that i carry my dynasty rosters uh so i i'm not really adding either of these guys i think nailer is interesting i think reynolds is fine if you're in a deep league and you need somebody who could like maybe be a flex play that's kind of where i'm at with him is like he's gonna be on the field and payton does like this kind of guy and honestly reynolds

has been somebody who's washed up and mattered no matter where he's been at like i think he's a real nfl receiver who does things that coaches like i just don't trust the offense at all um i don't i don't trust nicks and i think sudden is the guy i think sudden is who things are going to go through but he's had literally like the two worst matchups for him individually with Rick Wolin and the Joey Porter Jr. It's the most physical cornerbacks in the league who can just match up with him, and that's how he wins, his physicality. A couple of questions from the chat here before we go up. Would you rather give up a first and a player for Jonathan Taylor or a second and a player

for Josh Jacobs in a dynasty league? I think three years or two years that Taylor has is younger on Jacobs and we like Taylor slightly more. So you give up a first and a player for Taylor or a second and a player for Jacobs. I'll go Jacobs. I'm kind of always going to take the arbitrage option i don't like giving up first especially for a veteran running back i i i i don't mind giving up first but i would prefer to do it in october or november when the guy know the guy's still healthy brayden has aaron rogers and bryce young as his two dynasty quarterbacks and super flex things are not going great what mood would you recommend making and that leads us to our final waiver wire ad. Andy Dalton is back. He is starting in the NFL. I think this is good news for you, Ante Johnson.

Good news for Chuba Hubbard. And I would expect that Andy Dalton runs a much more functional offense than what we've seen in Carolina so far. You should go make a pretty substantial claim for Andy Dalton because quarterbacks don't come up on the waiver wire very often in super flex leagues. No, I definitely agree with that wholeheartedly. And yeah, man, Bryce Young, I'm in a super safe dynasty league where you lose four points for interceptions and you lose one point for every sack. And Bryce Young has negative points on the year. He's not super safe. I think

he will, like this will be good for him. Seeing how Andy Dalton does here, I think will be a benefit, even though he's not going to like it very much. Jacob, as always, you were fantastic. I appreciate you being here. Tell everybody what's coming up on the newsletter. Yeah, man, this is super fun. And 45 minutes, look at us. That's impressive.

We're making progress. Newsletter. Yeah, go subscribe fft newsletter for free um today i'll be sending out an updated look at week three rankings and then tomorrow tomorrow's newsletter is probably the most fun one each week it's a an advanced matchup column so i'm looking at cornerback receiver matchups but also like what type of coverages that each team is using. Some teams use a lot of press and man coverage, and that's obviously good for somebody.

If you're going to press Justin Jefferson, he's going to beat you for 97 yards. Like I wrote that up last week where it's like, I just, San Francisco uses a ton of press, and that seems crazy to me. It worked against Garrett Wilson, but I don't necessarily think it's going to work against Justin Jefferson.

And yeah, right away, he beats him on it. And it's just good to know that kind of stuff. Some defenses are using way more zone coverage, too high safety and all that. So I just go into detail on what that could mean for each matchup. And then also look at what's happening in the front seven, like who I expect to win at the point of attack at the line of scrimmage, which defenses are blitzing more, which defenses are getting pressure, and how pressure affects each quarterback and the target distribution for each quarterback so i really

love that wednesday one's a ton of cool actionable information for each week as a reminder in the chat you will find a link to subscribe to jacob's newsletter thank you so much jacob thank you thank you to everybody in the chat asking questions. We will talk to you next Tuesday. Paramount Podcasts