Fantasy Football Today - SHOCKING Bold Predictions for 2026 Fantasy Football! (07/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 1, 2026

How bold are Adam, Dave, and Heath willing to get for the 2026 fantasy football season? After a Patrick Mahomes injury update (3:00), Dave makes the case for David Montgomery (5:42) thriving in Houston and predicts Isaiah Likely (9:55) will finish as a top-4 fantasy tight end with the Giants. Heath fires back with bold takes of his own, including Sam LaPorta (16:28) outscoring one of fantasy's elite TEs and Zay Flowers (27:00) putting it all together in Baltimore. Is Bhayshul Tuten (30:45) a league winner? Adam thinks so. Sticking with running backs, he sees a historic season on the horizon for Jahmyr Gibbs (40:35). We finish the show with BOLD chat predictions! (46:06)Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

This is fantasy football today from CBS sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Up to the races and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

Full prediction time right now on fantasy football today on July 1st. Happy July, Dave and Heath. We are in the month where training camp begins. Yay. We are, Adam, you need more excitement. It's been a mostly boring offseason. I like that. I'm looking forward.

Well, I mean, we had time to relax, but I'm looking forward to training camp starting, the stuff really flying, football coming back. You can smell the freshly cut grass. I'm ready for this. I'm ready for this. Yes. Go.

You can smell the freshly cut grass at all of the soccer games around the country in stadiums that put down freshly cut grass. So first bold prediction, United States wins tonight, advances to the semifinals eventually of the World Cup. That's my first bold prediction. USA semifinals. Heath, I know you fired up for the game.

Yeah, I think I'm glad you added the semifinals portion because the United States are enormous or at least large favorites in this game. So saying they're going to win tonight is definitely not a bold prediction. Looking at the spreads of these soccer games, being a plus, well, Bosnia is plus 688. That's not even like that high. Some of them have been insane. Right. But I just, like, unless France or Argentina is playing, I think I'd like to just take those odds.

Because who knows? But one ball might squeak in. Yeah, yeah, I feel that. Okay. Anyway, we got just one news item that I know of. and an amazing stat that doesn't matter and then bold predictions on Zay Flowers, Bajal Tutin,

David Montgomery, and more. injury, news, and note. Patrick Mahomes is trending toward being ready for 11-on-11 work at the beginning of training camp, according to Albert Brewerp Sports Illustrated. So a lot of injured players are trending in the right direction.

It's good stuff, and Mahomes is one of them. I'm curious if there's going to be an ADP bump once Mahomes is actually practicing without the injury jersey, full 11, all that stuff. I don't know how many people are worried about Mahomes missing week one.

I'm not. I'm rating him as if he's playing 17. It's QB 13 right now in average draft position. You think he'll move up? Probably. He's currently behind Tyler Shuck in our fans-only ADP. That's crazy.

That's CBS. I think he will move up. And the big question for me is not whether he misses week one. It's whether, as we've seen from Justin Herbert, from Trevor Lawrence, from Joe Burrow, others, whether the rushing decreases because that kept him afloat last year. Or made him great last year, actually. It was rude to say it kept him afloat. He was QB2 before he got hurt. Yeah.

We would have expected the rushing to decrease either way. But it could crater. Yeah. Right. All right. CBS Sports HQ is your hub for everything that's going on in the world of sports right now. Tennis, golf, soccer, NBA free agency, NFL training camps opening up. As a Yankees fan, I don't want to watch anything about baseball right now. But if you are interested in baseball and anything else, CBS SportsHQ, it's on the CBS Sports app.

Go White Sox. White Sox fans are very interested in baseball right now. We can all be honorary White Sox fans. Here's an amazing stat that doesn't matter. Heath is going to talk about Sam LaPorteur today. So as I was looking at the points per game leaders at tight end, Darren Waller was the number seven tight end per game last year, despite playing 45% of the snaps in the games he played in.

He averaged, Darren Waller, averaged as many yards per outrun as Trey McBride. And he had the highest A-DOT among all tight ends with 30 or more targets. Just a quick little shout out to Darren Waller. or Heath. Good job, Darren Waller. Doesn't matter at all. Here we go.

Darren Wall. And he wasn't really that bad when he was with the Giants a few years ago. So if he resurfaces at any point, you never know. Tide in premium. Okay, bold predictions. Dave, you're going to start it off

with a David Montgomery. Dave always does a bold prediction about someone named Dave or David. I do? Unbelievable. No. Yeah, you'd probably not. But this one is about David Montgomery.

What are we got? David Montgomery pulls a Joe Mixon and has one last big year. And I don't know if you remember Joe Mixon's 2024 with Houston, but he was a top 10 fantasy running back regardless of format. David Montgomery matches it. I took a second look at him recently. I recognized that the only number that he really went down in last year was touches per game. His efficiency was still good, at least in line with where it was over the two

seasons prior. And now he's going to Houston. I don't think he's got major competition for carries. I certainly know he's got zero competition for goal line work. And this is a team that's pretty conservative offensively, not going to throw the ball around a ton, one of the best defenses in the NFL. There's going to be a lot of favorable game scripts for a running back like David Montgomery to get a lot of work over the course of the season.

He's not a bad pass catcher. I'm not going to draft him for his past catching acumen. but I am going to draft him expecting double-digit touchdowns, and I think he'll be an efficient runner. This will be his last big year. I can't remember the last time I was this excited to draft David Montgomery. I moved him up in my rankings, and he's somebody I'm targeting in that RB2 range,

but I think he's got potential to finish as a top 10 running back. I just hope he doesn't have a Joe Mix in age 29 season. I don't think that's possible at this point. Well, I guess it could be, right? He could get hurt away from the team, hide the injury, not tell the team about it, and then not work hard to rehab and come back from it. So I suppose that's possible that that seems like maybe like a half percent chance of happening. I don't know if he'll get 18 touches per game, David Montgomery,

but it's certainly within the realm of possibility, right? Yes. So over the last three seasons, there have been exactly 12 running backs each year that have had 18 touches per game with a minimum of eight games. And only three of those 36 running backs finished outside the top 20 per game. And right now Montgomery's ADP is RB20. So pretty good ADP and pretty good chance

of him getting all that work and maybe not winning your league, but at least being steady enough to be a top 20 running back. One last thing. Look at the Texan schedule and tell me how many really tough run defenses they have on their schedule this year.

And if you ask me, it's a damn good schedule. It's just another factor that helps sell me on David Montgomery. I do have a little bit of trouble projecting him for 18 touches a game. Yeah. And it's not like he didn't receive that work because he wasn't good the last few years. He was obviously sharing with Jemir Gibbs, but we are talking about a 29-year-old running back that hasn't had that much work since he was 24. It's true. I kind of like it.

Because he hasn't had that kind of work since he was 24. That's a good point, too. The Texas offensive line, according to ESPN, was the worst run blocking unit in the NFL. It's very different this year. I don't know if it's that much better, though, Adam. Just to point out, like, if there was a drawback to everything that I said about Montgomery, it is the offensive line. At best, it's solid on paper and certainly,

unproven across the board to be good. So can it be better than it was last year? Yeah, but that just might mean they're like right around league average. I thought sports, I thought I hated David Montgomery, but sports line really hates David Montgomery. 33rd, wow, at running back. All right. Yeah, Joe Mixin with Houston in 2024, he only averaged 4.1 yards per carry, but he got

like every important touch for that team for the 14 games he stayed healthy and was, would you say top 10? running RB 10 or something? He was at least RB10 in every format. All right. Let's stick with Dave. Your second bold prediction is about Isaiah likely. He finishes as what?

I told you that he finishes a top six tight end. And I don't know if that's bold enough. So let's say he finishes as a top four tight end. Leads the giants in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns just completely takes the leap that we've been hoping for him to have. He's in an offense. that might not throw as much as we want them to, but if Malik Neighbors isn't Malik Neighbors and the rest of that receiving Corps isn't particularly great,

this is going to be the player that Jackson Dart leans on. And we've seen it from him. It's a real small sample size in his career. Isaiah likely's had nine games in his career with at least six targets. Okay, nine games, six targets. He has 12.5 PPR points in eight of those nine games. that's in Baltimore. It's with a better quarterback for most of those games.

And Dart in the second year, I just think he's going to need somebody in the short area to lean on, likely has yards after catchability. And I just think that we see a completely different role for him. Last point, Matt Nagy is the play caller now in New York. When he was the play caller in Chicago, he brought in a tight end named Trey Burton. And Trey Burton wasn't necessarily great for fantasy. I think he averaged like 9.2 PPR points per game. and you only had 4.8 targets per game,

but it's kind of the same role that likely I'll have. And I think it's going to be a bigger role than what Trey Burton had. Trey Burton had an okay role. I think it likely ends up having a much bigger role. This is a tight end that you asked me yesterday, is there a tight end you're targeting? This is the one that I'm targeting outside of just getting one at a good value. If I can get Isaiah likely,

I've done a 180 on him. If I can get Isaiah likely, let's call it round nine, round 10 or even later, I'm a happy man. I feel like I'm two-thirds of, away to the Dave Richard tight end trifecta.

Because we've got him to turn around on Sam Laporta. We've got him to turn around on Isaiah Likely. We've just got to push Kyle Pitts through. Oh, that's not happening. It'll be the greatest off-season of my life. That's not happening when something happens to Drake London. If Drake London gets hurt or something like that, then yes,

of course. Okay. All right. Heath, any thoughts on Isaiah Likeley being a top four tight end? Yeah, I've got him sixth in my projections right now. So I agree with Dave, but we had to push that up to make it a little bit more. I think, listen, some of it's going to come down to how healthy Malik neighbors is and how often they actually throw the football. But I expect him to be second on the team in targets. I've got him projected

for 112. He's been very efficient. I think we saw that Jackson Dart is very willing to throw the ball to his tight ends. Oh, yeah. So I, Pops asks in the chat, Theo Johnson, oh, Adam tried to hit it at the same time I did. Yeah, no, I was going to bring this point up. I think Theo Johnson could wreck the plans for Isaiah likely a little bit. I don't.

There could be a couple of touchdowns that go Theo Johnson. Yeah, he could score some touchdowns. They're not the same tight, they're both tight ends, but they're not the same type of tight ends. Well, and they already had Theo Johnson and they chose to go spend that money on Isaiah likely. Yeah. And tight end is a position where guys can have late breakouts after really not doing much. Johnny Smith was only one year. David Nogoku had basically three good years after not doing much.

So it's just all about opportunity. He's got the opportunity now. That's what I was going to say. He took the words out of my mouth. Jackson Dart, 22.8% target rate to tight ends last year. Believe it or not, that was below average among qualifying quarterbacks. but that's still pretty good when you're looking for a player to get some decent volume. So if they throw, I mean,

do the math, if they throw 550 times, 22% of that, it's not bad. It's not a bad target share for our guy likely. That may be exactly what I have projected.

And you obviously have to give some targets at Theo Johnson. Of course, yeah. Okay, let's take a break. We have another tight end, bold prediction

when we come back from Heath Cummings. and if you in the chat have any bold predictions, we'll read those at the end of the show. We'll be right back on FFT. And we welcome me back here to fantasy football today. All right. Heath has two bold predictions. This one is a tight end prediction.

I wonder, is this more about the first one that you're going to mention? Or the second one in the sentence? Go ahead. It's about both. Sam Leporta will outscore Tray McBride this season. Gas. The guy who gained Drew Petsig versus the guy who lost Drew Petsig, and that's not entirely what it's about. But I do think this is interesting.

If you look at the career averages of Sam Leporta on a per target basis versus the career bests for Trey McBride on a per target basis, Sam Leporta has averaged 8.3 yards per target for his career. Tray McBride has averaged his best season, 7.8 yards per target. Sam Leporta has a 7.9% career touchdown rate. Trey McBride last year, his best season, 6.5% touchdown rate. Sam Leporta has averaged 2.05 fantasy points per target. Trey McBride's best season, 1.87 fantasy points per target. Sam Leporta has been undeniably better than Trey McBride on a per target basis.

The difference has been. Trey McBride has been in this Titan-centric offense. Sam Leporta has not. And so Trey McBride scored more fantasy points. Now the guy who was running Trey McBride's offense is running Sam Leportez. And yes, he has a Munraulte, St. Brown, and James and Williams. Last year, there were 391 snaps where among Rang St. Brown, Sam Leporta, and James and Williams were. all on the field.

Sam LaPorteurta had a 20.7% target rate. Target share? With what? Target share or target per route? Target share. Okay. Target share. Target per route runs pretty similar to target share when you're just using the place

where they're on the field. Not entirely the same because he blocks sometimes occasionally. That's 20.7% without Drew Petzig calling place. Now, maybe Drew Petzig doesn't matter at all. Maybe it's exactly the same. But even a small boost to those numbers, and you are looking at a massive season for Sam Leporte. Jared Goffs averaged 574 pass attempts over the last three seasons. Drew Petzig's offense has averaged 591.

If you just look at my projections, 581, kind of right in the middle of those. A 21% target share, which is basically what he had last year when he was on the field, is 120%. 22 targets. A 22% is 128 targets. I don't think that's the ceiling. It's pretty easy to calculate how many fantasy points he would score because he's averaged almost exactly two fantasy points per target. 128 targets times two.

It's 15 fantasy points per game. Well, he was only on pace for 93 targets last year. So they're going to have to throw a lot more. They're going to have to throw a lot more than they did during the period of time when early in the season. And you've talked about it. Like when their defense hasn't been as good, they've thrown more.

I don't think this has been a very good offseason for the Detroit Lions defense. Well, I was just reading about Terry and Arnold. And look, he's an important player for them because he's a starting cornerback, but he's actually been a pretty big bust. He hasn't been that good. But he's still, I mean, look,

losing a starting cornerback is a big deal. But they didn't lose a pro bowl or anything like that. Didn't they lose two starting corners? No, both of their starting safeties are questionable to start the season. Is Amic Robertson Beck? No, he's gone too. DJ Reid was their corner opposite, Terry and Arnold.

Amic Robertson led the team in Passes Defense last year by a pretty good margin. He's going. Alec Anzalone was second in tackles, second in passes-defense. He's gone. Yeah. I don't think either of those losses. move the meter for me on the Lions defense. I actually like the nickel that they got to come in and play Roger McCrary. He was great in Tennessee. He was okay in LA. And now he's there. Malcolm Rodriguez has been a good backup linebacker sort of for them. And now he'll take over a lot of the Anzolone role at Weekside. I don't like, they didn't really make a lot of moves to help their pass rush. Obviously, Aiden Hutchinson being awesome. They drafted Derek Moore. They brought in DJ Wanham. All this still points of the same conclusion, though, which is that the lion's defense isn't particularly

better than it was last year, and that could open the door for some more high-scoring games. Yeah, all right. Look, I think you've made a pretty good case for Sam LaPorta, whether he outscores McBride or not. It's a really good case. Your next one is about It's a hold on. I think it's a great case for Leporta's efficiency. And you've sold me a while ago now, but you've sold me on Sam Laporta being a good draft pick. I just want to point out that there's a more than four target per game difference between Laporta and McBride over the past two seasons. And do I think that'll shrink a little bit this year?

Of course, because PetSing going to Detroit, the Lions want to use multiple tight end formations. It should lead to more targets for Laporta. And I do think that it's tough to expect nine targets per game for Trey McBride moving forward. But I think the gap might fall to two and a half target. targets per game. And that would still put Leporter around six, six and a half targets per game. That's awesome. But I just, I don't know if that means that he can even come close to being, he could be a top three tight end. Okay. Anything else?

Sam Leporter's mustache is cool. I like it. Yeah. The other thing, I just want to talk about, like, does playing a multiple tight end set lead to more tight end targets? because I think what Ryan Heath would argue is that it leads to more wide receiver targets. No, no, I think what Ryan Heath would argue is that it leads to more efficient wide receivers on their targets. Well, here are the teams that played the most two tight-end sets last year. There's going to be some heavily targeted teams and tight-end teams and some that aren't. The Browns, Ravens, Seahawks, Falcons, Cardinals, Bears, Raiders,

Packers, Steelers, you know, now we're at nine. At the bottom, we have the Rams, like these are the lowest tight end, two tight end set teams. Rams, although the Rams actually played the most three tight end sets. Yeah, you've got to make it multiple.

You know what? I should have sorted it by two plus tight ends. I'm sorry. It's going to be similar. Browns, Raven, Steelers, Cardinals, Falcons, Bears. That's your top six. Good tight end.

I mean, you got Fannins. you got McBride, you got Pitts. Lovellum, but they actually didn't really throw to their tight ends all that much, did they? I mean, the Bears. And then at the bottom you have the Texans, Chargers, Niners, Dolphins, Jets, Saints. I actually would say this is pretty good evidence that playing more than, well, at least one year of evidence. Playing two or more tight ends will lead to more tight end targets with Kittle being the exception there because the 49ers rarely did it.

Loveland average seven targets per game from week seven on last year. Yeah, but as a team, they didn't throw to the tight end that much. They had 136 tight end targets last year. Is that a lot? I would say, like I haven't got my, I've been working on my opportunity index that makes it easier to compare that. But I would say it's probably close to average. On the subject of the coaching, I think this is going to be a great test because, if

Stifansky and Petzing are maybe for the people like me who are more on the It's About Players not about coaches side this is hard to ignore their history

but Petzing has been an offensive coordinator for three seasons and Trey McBride's been his best player so Stefansky I think maybe I could see it a little bit more

does it you don't really care that before Petzing was an offensive coordinator for three seasons. He was with Kevin Stefanski for 10 seasons. No, of course, I do, I do. Um, and they, sure they're going to want to use a tight end. It's just Kevin Stephansky has never had Amon Ross St. Brown and or Petting have never had Amon Rice Brown and James and Williams. Maybe you just don't think James is going to do much. Um, I just, I think more it's like we're acting, I don't want to act

like these coaches are going to use these bums at tight end because they always throw to tight ends. They went to places where they have very talented tight ends. Yeah, for sure. But I also remember this hubbub about Kellan Moore and his slot receivers. And who was a slot receiver in Philadelphia? It was Devante Smith. Devante Smith had a Devante Smith type of season with him. A.J. Brown had a 27.3% target per out run rate. Dave, I gave you another example we were talking about it the other day.

Of like, oh, I mean, you could even say, Ben Johnson. Ben Johnson and his slot guy. I'm on Ross. Brown, Ben Johnson is Slot. Who did I say led the team in slot routes last year? It was Alamedes Akees, I think. Yeah, he was awful. So it's, I don't know.

It's about players to me. But this is, but I'm not ignoring it because this is the, really, I think, one of the most compelling coaching arguments you can make. But if it doesn't work out, then I think it will further emboldened me next year to be like, yeah, I don't, again, I think the vast majority of my argument for Sam the Porter was a bit about how awesome he's been on a per target basis and that even a small boost in targets. I don't expect him to have a 30% target share like Tray McBride.

No. But I do think he has a higher target rate this year. What do you make of the back injury? That will be concerning to me if we get to training camp and he's not healthy. All right. Next bold prediction is actually someone else scooped you here. Where is it? Oh, there was a someone had a Zay Flowers.

I think it was Zayflowers. be a top five wide receiver. Bull prediction in our chat. By the way, also... There is. There is. There is. The credit they deserve.

Okay, okay. Sorry, I didn't see it. Gridiron gamer says Flowers will be a top five tight end. If you want to comment live in the chat, great.

If you're not watching live and you're on YouTube and you want to comment in the comment section, give us bold predictions there. But what is your Zay Flowers bowl prediction? Zayflowers will score 10 touchdowns

and be a top five wide receiver. So I got one up, you a little bit, great iron gamer. And I talked about the first part of this on a past show, I think. This fact that every year we have a wide receiver who doesn't score touchdowns, who all of a sudden scores touchdowns. Last year it was Chris Olavay, had a 3.3% career touchdown rate going into last year, scored nine touchdowns on 156 targets.

The year before, it was Terry McClure and had a 4.1% touchdown rate going into that year scored 13 touchdowns on 117. 2020, we actually had two of those guys. Cortland Sutton, we think of him as like, has always been a touchdown score. He had 14 touchdowns on 421 career targets before 2023, and then he scored 10 touchdowns on 90 targets. Among Ross St. Brown had a 4.2 percent touchdown rate his first two seasons, and now all of a sudden now he just scores touchdowns every year.

And I think your comeback was pretty good. It's like, yeah, but say flowers is this little guy, and he's, doesn't get targeted in the red zone. So I did find a couple of guys who are very similarly sized to Zay Flowers, who had a similar touchdown breakout about this point in their career. Tyler Lockett had a 4.4% touchdown rate. His first three seasons, two seasons, three seasons, one of the two, had 10 touchdowns on 70 targets the next year.

And then this one's going to really probably get you mad, but I think he might be closer to this guy in terms of fantasy production the next five years than Tyler Lockett. Antonio Brown had a 3.6% touchdown rate on his first 416 targets and then scored 13 touchdowns in a season. Save Flowers has arrived as an elite wide receiver in the clear target hog in Baltimore. He just needs the touchdowns to be an elite fantasy football wide receiver. This is the year. And you could have just gone with Marquis Brown, by the way, who had, who had, who had, Well, let's see.

I was looking for end zone targets. I don't know if he scored a lot of touchdowns, but Markees Brown had three seasons with nine, 13, and 13 end zone targets. I think at least two of those were with Baltimore. Oh, no, they were all with Baltimore. Yeah, Markis Brown wouldn't have fit quite as well because he had seven touchdowns on 71 targets as a rookie.

And then scored eight. The next year, he came into the league's only scoring touchdowns. But not from the red zone. It was from the 50. Yeah, right. I mean, I guess my point is my Marquis Brown on the Ravens was a short 5-foot-9-ish guy who got a lot of end zone targets, which is what we'd like to see. And I think when you make these bold predictions, it's like there are so many unpredictable things in fantasy. You're just looking for players who, if things break right, they could just go bananas. It just could be amazing for them.

They might need a break or two, but they're talented enough to capitalize on that break. Would you agree with that? That's kind of what we're hunting here. Yes, yeah. Yeah. Because you just, you know, you can't really predict it. And that's where I'm going with my Bejel Tootin, bold prediction. My bold prediction is that Bejel Tootin will be a league winner.

No, he did not have a very impressive rush average last year. But there are plenty of running backs who struggle as rookies. And I just, I mean, I watched tape of him earlier this offseason. liked him. I watched more tape yesterday and I really like Bejel Tootin. I think he's obviously super fast and but also pretty physical. But the biggest problem I have here is I also like to tape for Chris Rodriguez. And I cannot deny that Chris Rodriguez is very good at what he does. He's, he's just very physical, doesn't lose yards a lot. He's hard to tackle. It's not going to be a game chain. The difference between Tudin and Rodriguez is if one gets hurt, Tudin, I think has league winning potential. If Tudin gets

hurt, though, I don't think Rodriguez does. He has six catches in his career and he's just not an explosive player. But if things break right, if some break happens for Bejel Tootin, if there's an injury or he just outplays Chris Rodriguez and he becomes the lead back for the Jacksonville Jaguars, my bold prediction is that Bejel Tootin will be a league winner. Thoughts, Dave? One of my favorite backfields to double up on on draft day. Because you can get Bachel Tootin right at that round five, six turn. That's where he is on CBS ADP. Chris Rodriguez can be had right around 100th overall, maybe a little bit later. And between the two of them, you should have hopefully a starting running back every single

week. This is a great offense. They were very prolific under Liam Cohen last year. They've made it clear, at least at this point, that these are the two running backs that they're going to go to battle with on first and second downs. And the points you made about Tudin's film were good. I would add that five of his touchdowns last year came from inside the five. He had a 71% success rate inside the five.

Chris Rodriguez had 35% with Washington last year. And I cannot get it out of my head that the commanders, for all the running back issues that they had going to the off season, let Chris Rodriguez go when they didn't really even have to. They could have given him, I think it was a restricted tag, and they just let him walk. And he went to Jacksonville. He's got familiarity with Liam Cohen.

I almost think that that's the best thing about him is that familiarity. Because otherwise, you said you were impressed with the film. thought he was okay. I don't think he's necessarily great. I think Tutin has more upside. I think everybody would see that if they watched Tudin play. Well, you're talking about Chris Rodriguez film? Chris Rodriguez, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Like, I think what was impressive about him was that he just,

he doesn't go down easily. He's really tough. He's a good, rugged runner. But he's nothing like Bajal Tudin. Bachel Tudin is short. He's 5'9, but he, but 209 pounds and he ran a 4-3-2. He is a combination of speed and power. Yes, he is. And Rodriguez is not. I don't think it's going to be a week one thing. He's going to have to earn it hopefully in the first month of the season.

It's going to be kind of an annoying split, I think, Dave. But Tuton, to me, is the guy that can really take the run game to the next level. He had a 15-carry game, week 11 against the Chargers. The majority of his carries came in the first three quarters. He averaged 4.9 yards per rush. It's an example of what Tudan can do when he gets into the rhythm of a game. He really didn't get that opportunity because Travis H.M. was in Jacksonville last year, and he was the one that was kind of leading the way in that backfield

all year long. If Tudin gets that role, I think he can be, I don't think he'll be 4.9 yards per carry good, but I think he'll be plenty good. And I think he's got a chance to at least split the short yardage touchdown work with Chris Rodriguez, particularly because of how good he was at it last year. Heath, any thoughts here? And I'll say, you know, one of the issues with drafting Tuton, just looking at fantasy pros, is he's going in the same range as Trey.

on Henderson, I would take Tootan. Quintan Judkins, I think I'd have to take Judkins, Bucky Irving, I could say the same exact stuff. I mean, I can't sit here and say, Bucky Irving's not a league winner, a potential league winner. So, you know, it's not like, it's not an easy draft pick, I think. You're going to be passing up similar players, and, you know, something in you is going to have to decide you want Tutin.

But what do you think? I've been probably more skeptical of Tootin. And I think the way you would. introduced this one's kind of strange. In what sense? I mean, it's just like talking about guys that we just are really talented and if things go right could be, I don't think we've seen very much

evidence that Bayshult and we don't have that much evidence from the NFL that they think he's, I mean, I guess Jacksonville letting ETN walk is about the best evidence we have, but he was a day three running back with one kind of good college season. Yeah. And he has some ball security concerns, and he's probably not going to do a whole lot in the passing game.

And I just don't, I think he, I don't, I think he's very similar to Bill, except Bill was a lot better as a Russia last year. Like they're just, they're good with the bowl in their hands, if they can keep the bowl in their hands on rush attempts. Okay, I guess it's just I I look past the numbers personally and I like what I see.

So that's why I went with right. Yeah. There have been, so he's RB 24 right now in ADP. Over the last four seasons, how many running backs drafted as RB 20 or later finished top 12 per game? In 22, we had four. The next year we had five.

The next year we had zero. and last year we had two, Cam Scataboo and Javante Williams. So that gives us 11 running backs in the last four years that were drafted as RB 20 or later and finished top 12 per game. And six of those 11 were first or second year players. So that, I think, is kind of telling.

Guys that, you know, the Giovante Williams of the world aren't the more common. The Scadaboo's of the world are. And maybe Tutin can be that guy this year. All right. One last point, if I may make it, because he compared him to Kroski Merritt. Kroski Merritt had twice as many carries as Tutan. Certainly the yards per rush favored Krosky Merritt, but in EPA, they were exactly

the same success rate. Tudin was better, noticeably better in Crosky Merit. In what? In success rate? Yes. Oh, okay. The reason I was confused was not because I knew that stat for Tuton. It was because Bill led the NFL.

in rush success rate, but Tutin probably didn't have enough carries to qualify. That's fair. I just, I got to compare them based on the work that they did. Tootun had a better avoided tackle rate, but it was close. The explosion rate is really where Kroski Merritt won, and that's what he's known for, is just having that speed to break away. Does Tutin have it? Yeah.

Do we see it as much? No, because he had half as many carries. And so I am very curious to see what happens if Tutin does get in the neighborhood of 13 carries a week, throw a catch on top of that. if that's how he starts the season and he takes off, he's going to be the featured back in Jacksonville and a must-start fantasy running back. Okay.

Here, oh, he wasn't his offensive coordinator. Never mind. I was going to say, 2023, there was a running back who averaged 3.6 yards per carry as a rookie, just as Bejel Tootin did, was RB 25 in ADP, Tutton's 24 right now, and finished his RB 10 per game, and it was Rashad White.

but that was not a Liam Cohen year as his offensive coordinator. What year? 2023. Yeah. That was Canales. Okay. Let's take a break. And I've got one more bold prediction for you when we come back on fantasy football today.

Then we'll read yours after that. We'll be right back. We've got another Detroit Lions bold prediction. Here it is. Jemir Gibbs will average the second most PPR fantasy points per game of any running back in the last 10 years. He'll be better. than everyone other than 2019 Christian McCaffrey, who averaged 29.3 points per game. McCaffrey then averaged 30 points per game the next year, something like that, but that was only

three games. So Jemir Gibbs is about to have the second best running back season of the last decade. And obviously, this is a bold prediction. I don't think it's actually going to happen. But I could see it because the setup is so good. Over the last three years, the Lions are second, first, and fifth in running. running back carries. Second, first, and 14th in running back goal line carries. They are third, first and first in running back PPR fantasy points per game. Jamir Gibbs has been amazing over the last

three years without being the goal line back. David Montgomery has the second most goal line carries in the NFL over the last three seasons. Well, he's gone now. And Jemir Gibbs has scored on 70% of his goal line carries, which is really, really high and won't continue, but he's very good there. Dan Campbell said that Jamir Gibbs is going to be the bell cow. And then let's take a look at this graphic here. It's a little confusing. I'll have to explain some of it to you. But the gist is Jamir Gibbs is amazing on a per touch basis.

PPR fantasy points per touch since he entered the league. Jamir Gibbs at 1.14. Devon A. Chan at 1.14. Gibbs is technically a little bit ahead of A. Chan in terms of decimals. But those two guys are the best. I put Priest Holmes his best three-season stretch on here and Jemir Gibbs is a little bit better

than Priest Holmes was. I put Lidane and Tomlinson a six-season stretch for him from 2002 to 2007 and Jemir Gibbs on a per-touch basis is much better than Lidani and Tomlinson was. He's also better than Bejohn Robinson

and Derek Henry and Jonathan Taylor and Saquan Barkley have been and if you're looking at this graphic Christian McCaffrey is just behind Gibbs and A-chan. Those three seasons though, I eliminated 2024, so I went with 22, 3, and 5 for him. But the bottom line is, you have got the most efficient running back on a per touch basis

who just lost David Montgomery. He's on the best offense over the last three years to produce running back fantasy points. It couldn't be a better setup for a break your league. You won because you have Jemir Gibbs type of season. So my bold prediction is that he is basically going to be Ladani and Tomlinson and be incredible. So you're taking him first overall. Yeah, I am taking him for a single roll. It's a good choice.

It's bold. I was a Jamar Chase, but then I just thought it. I was like, no, it's... If you were in an auction draft, would you spend 40% of your budget on Jemir Gibbs in a full PPR? No, I wouldn't. You're going to be worth that much? I mean, look, if my bold prediction comes true, then sure. But I don't think I can...

Oh, if your bold prediction comes true, it's probably worth 60. Maybe. Absolutely. When I first ran my calculations, and I've only got him projected for like 20 more fantasy points than any other non-QB. I love this bold prediction. But when I first ran kind of my auction values, I came up with him at 39. Out of 100. Out of 100.

So I guess I'll get Jemir Gibbs in the auction league. Okay, man, maybe I'll go 39.5. 3950. I'm not in the auction league. Don't worry about it. Why be? Is he's number one for Heath? Dave is the number one for you?

Oh, of course. I mean, we talked about him versus Bijan last week, and I do think, I said that I cannot put an argument on paper of why to take Bejohn over Gibbs. It doesn't mean that I don't think Bejohn could outscore him, but I think some of the comments that we got were like, Bejohn's a lot bigger, he's more suited for the Every Down Roll. That's the only thing that concerns me that Gibbs is his body going

to let him be a bell cow. I don't have that concern with Bijon Robinson. So I could see that getting in his way. Other than that, I don't think anything's getting in his way. You know, what probably could determine it is which of Sam Leporta or Kyle Pitts

gets the most of a coordinator boost because I think Dave's talked about this a lot. Like a lot of times there's a negative relationship between tight-in targets and running back targets. And it could be that I've kind of wondered if maybe they use Gibbs

just a little bit less in the passing game and he doesn't share rush attempts near as much as he has in the past which would probably be bad for his fantasy points per touch but not for his touchdowns and total fantasy points. Yeah. Jemir Gibbs had a

21.2% target share without Leporta and a 13.3% target share with Leporta. I mean, huge difference. So that's another,

I wouldn't really call that a concern. I mean, I think he'll be involved enough in the passing game. I'll take the over on 13.3%. But yeah, it changed his season last year for sure. I mean,

he was already, it was great, but he was greater after the Loporta injury. Okay. Let's see what the audience has to say. Some bold predictions from the People.

Gridiron gamers got a lot of them. Wondale Robinson will finish the year with more targets and yards than Carnell Tate. I like it. I don't. I agree with the targets and disagree with the yards. Exactly where I was going. Yeah. Who will have more fantasy points?

I'll take you. I would draft Tate first. Oh my God. This is so bold from Wiscoe Disco. This better include like six specials. team's touchdowns. Rahid Shaheed will lead Seattle and touchdowns. That's bold.

Yeah. I don't see it. Yeah. I mean, JSN gets hurt week one. I don't even want to say that. What am I doing? Did you know that?

I'm 95% sure of the status correct. Sam to Arnold had the best yards per attempt on deep balls, 20 or more air yards last. year. Sounds familiar. I mean, I know it was better than Drake May because I remember looking it up for the Super Bowl. So that should help Rashid if he could do that again.

Yeah, he's not going to do that again. I think that'll be part of what they asked Shaheed to do, but I think they're trying to change his role, at least based on what we're reading about. And they just paid him a lot of money. So he should see some of the best volume he's ever had in his career. But it's a matter of, well, I mean, scoring more than Jackson Smith and Jake. but seems crazy. Jason's going to have to win Powerball in order for that to happen. But you should

absolutely consider drafting Rashid Shaheed with a late pick. Nothing wrong with that at all. All right. Next up is from J.C. Reyes. Ashton Genti will disappoint and finish below top 12 at running back. Isaiah likely finishes top five. We already covered that one.

We have in top four as a bold prediction. Jordan Tyson and Mikhailimann will finish higher than Carnell Tate. I could see all those things. what's the most likely no pun intended of this Gentie will disappoint we got to make it a little bit more bold

than top 12 I think like let's say top 16 I think he's 12th in my projections so that's definitely the most likely of his bold predictions Gentie I think it was 14th among running backs last year on a per game basis

double checking where is he 16th my bad could he be worse than that. I think that would be a bold prediction. I think likely finish his top five is the boldest. Yes.

All right. George Holani will outscore Judarian Price and Fantasy this year from Trey. Gross. Really gross. Yeah. Do you guys like Price or Tuton since you just had your Tuton one?

Tooten. I'm on Tudin. Bold prediction from Eddie. Adam will win at least one set in his next tennis match against Dan. Yeah. Yeah, I feel decent about it. We'll see. I think you're going to win the whole thing.

Yeah, I don't. But I just, there's like one shot that I need to get better at and I feel like I can, because he always hits, he always hits the ball to my backhand. And then he comes in. I have to get better at my backhand lob. If I can get better at my backhand lob, I can beat him. So I'll be working on that. I do, you should all know I have Achilles tendonitis and I haven't played in two weeks,

hoping to get back out there next. week, but I am injured, so I wouldn't put too much on me. Gridiron Gamer says Cam Ward finishes as a top 12 quarterback. I like it. Yeah, that's within the realm. I don't see it. It's a tough position to crack the top 12 in. Mm-hmm.

Yeah, I don't really see it either, but the fact that they are encouraging Cam Ward to rush more, as as Gridiron Gamer points out, is encouraging. I mean, it just kind of depends on. Are we talking full season? Are we talking per game? Everyone plays 17 games, so. Everyone plays 17 games. What's that?

Both, yeah, per game and overall. Yeah, I don't know. It's going to be tough. 12 last year was 21.1. It's not that outlandish. Yeah, it's just, I'm sure you probably feel like there are going to be 12 quarterbacks who can do that. But you're right.

It's not crazy for him to average 21 points per game. Jordan Tyson is a top five wide receiver from Ben Seth. That's pretty insane unless Chris Oliva is not okay. It's wild. It's true. And finally from Brian. He's going to have to stay okay. Remember, Tyson isn't at 100% right now either.

From Brian. Jaden Daniels regains his form and outscores Drake May. I don't see it. I think May's proven to be a pretty good quarterback, and now he's getting AJ Brown. I would not. I've got them separated by two points in my projections for the full season. If I did projections, it would be more than that.

Adam, what was the stat you were looking for on Sam Darnold? Highest yards per attempt on past attempts of 20 more air yards. He was actually second. He had 8.5. That's really good. You know who first was. Matthew Stafford. Timely.

Matthew Stafford. Drake May. No. 8.9 yards per attempt. You sure. No, I'm not sure. Sorry. Salty language.

Because I remember looking that up, going into the Super Bowl, and I was like, oh, even the best thing about the Patriots offense, Sam Darnall has done better than Drake May this year. Darnel was first, 18.5. Drake May was 4th, 15.6. I didn't have the filter on air yards. There you go. Overall for the season, though, Drake May first in yards per attempt. That's pretty damn good.

Yeah, yes, it is. Okay. Is that it? I think that's it, right? Please, I don't want to mess up another stat. All good. So, tomorrow, back to 10 a.m. And we'll see you that. For Dave and Heath, I'm Adam. I want to thank all of you for your participation in today's show. That is awesome stuff. And we'll see you later and have a good one. Podcasts. Now streaming on Paramount Plus. Beth and Rip are back in Dutton Ranch.

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