Fantasy Football Today - Simple Stats to Know for Your Draft (06/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 8, 2022

Tired of all the advanced metrics and all that mumbo jumbo? We're gonna keep things simple for you. We'll start with basic stats about Matthew Stafford (3:10) and even a kicker (7:30) to kick off the show. Then we've got your news and notes (9:30) with a long Jalen Hurts discussion ... Keenan Allen always finishes Top 12 in PPR (17:40). Travis Kelce could have 105 or more catches (21:20) so does that make him a first round pick? And Mike Evans has been super safe nearly every season of his career (24:00)! ... More simple stats on Deebo Samuel and Ja'Marr Chase (29:05), Jonathan Taylor's TDs (33:40), Tyler Lockett's ability to change roles (36:05) and Josh Allen's subpar passing numbers (41:30). Also, we tell you why 30 TD passes is a big deal (50:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Are you tired of all those fancy advanced stats? Do you have a feeling of dread when you hear someone say Acer stats? Well, forget it. This show is simple stats for simple people. Or simple stats for non-simple people. But simple, easy-to-dig digest statistics for fantasy football fans out there. Like Keenan Allen has been a top 12 PPR wide receiver,

five straight seasons. That is very useful to know guys. Sometimes we just need to keep it simple, stupid, right? Dave, a little kid. We need a little kiss.

Sometimes I, I agree. I know that I get excited about all kinds of data like yards before contact and targets per route run, and those are typically good indicators of when a player is good. But I was almost reminded of this when we talked about Will Brinson's fantasy team from 2021 that went 15-1. Just draft good players.

Just draft guys that you know can do the basics of football. Well, not be a track star, but just good football players who can catch the football and get end zone targets. It's I think if you keep it simple, you'll you'll be OK for it without getting so bogged down in, you know, how well runs a three-cone drill wearing a t-shirt and shorts and and he who do you think is the simplest person on this show oh god um probably me i was gonna say that too you're very kind of are what you are you know you're you're what you see is what you get you know i mean my wife probably wishes i was a little more complex at times i i could really 100 if it wasn't for children go buy a tiny house sell everything and live as a minimalist and i think as long as i had beer and a smoker outside i'd be okay does that involve clothes by the way a minimalist

well he's got a lot of chest hair um you wear clothes but maybe just have like five of the same shirt and five of the same shorts or pants and just yeah i don't need to have a bunch of different types of jim harbaugh shorts or anything a couple pairs of shoes and i'm good to go i haven't bought clothes in like five years so uh that's not entirely true, but it's close to true. So anyway, I pretty much never buy clothes for myself. I get them for birthdays or Christmas and that's what I wear. Okay. I just bought this jacket last week. Yes. Dave has a Lynn University jacket on. His son graduated high school yesterday. Amazing moment. That was

awesome. Saw the Facebook pictures. That was great. And congratulations to the whole family. And he's off to Lynn University for college. That is great. Now, I'm sorry to cut that off. Let's get your give me just one simple stat. He throw me a simple stat for fantasy managers to know. Matthew Stafford last year finished third in passing yards. And third in passing touchdowns.

Sorry. Second in passing touchdowns. But eighth in fantasy points per game. Ooh. Right. Very few rushing statistics. Some interceptions. He produced 4.3 fantasy points last year on rush attempts.

I was waiting to hear like per game. Right. With Stafford. So what do we make of that? What am I supposed to do with that? Because that one actually makes sense to me. Maybe I'd figure he'd be more like sixth or something without any rushing totals. That's a Jalen Hurts stat

if I've ever heard one. You've got a quarterback who's incredible throwing the football, has a season where he can compete to be the MVP of the league, and he finishes eighth in fantasy points per game. It's you know, it points you in the direction

of quarterbacks who can do something running the ball. Obviously, good for your fantasy fortunes. There was one top two quarterback who only ran for 81 yards. Right. But he also ran for two touchdowns and seemingly has at least two rushing touchdowns every year. It's Tom Brady. Yeah. Do you remember the last time Matthew Stafford had a regular season rushing touchdown?

2018. Was it that game where he was like, he had a broken shoulder or something like that and he came in for the dive and scored? I feel like that. It was 2016. He hasn't scored a rushing touchdown

in the regular season in five years. Which is weird because he used to be like Brady and score basically two a year. But yeah, I guess follow up, Keith. So do you look at that? So again, Matthew Stafford, third and passing guard, second and passing touchdowns, eighth and fantasy points per game. And that's in six point for passing

touchdown leagues. Do you look at that and say he's better than that or that he needs to be the best passer in football to even be, you know, anything more than a low end number one quarterback? How do you interpret that stat? I look at that like there's a group of quarterbacks, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, some people would

say Jalen Hurts, I would disagree, but who have a lot of upside but very little floor. And they always say if you draft one of those guys, you've got to get a solid quarterback as well. I think that Stafford and Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr and maybe Aaron Rodgers belong in a class of quarterbacks that are very good passers, but don't have the same upside. And so if I draft one of those guys like Stafford, I would also like to add a Justin Fields or a Trey Lance or someone who I think could actually be great. Okay. Dave, can I add one thing, Adam? Yeah, go ahead.

And then I'll give you my stat. Stafford finished with 23.7 fantasy points per game in six-point-per-pass and touchdown leads. Like we said, that's eighth. Fifth was Aaron Rodgers. He had 24.6, less than one point-per-game difference, made up eighth to fifth. I really wish that we could decide upon like a way that, cause I'm looking at standings based on our scoring and I see Rogers at 25.4

and Stafford at 24.0. I'll send you my spreadsheet because what you're looking at is a cumulative formula of year to date numbers, which isn't what was actually done. I guess, but those are his passing stats. I mean... Right, there's passing stats for the year. It's like as if he got them all in one game

and it was scored in one game. Well, the other thing about Rodgers is he only played half of Week 18, and he had the worst game of his career in Week 1. So there are some major stats. One fantasy point in week one. Oh, Rogers proves a pocket passer can be a top five fantasy quarterback without any rushing production.

He had 18 fantasy points, like a full point per game, which is what he was better than Stafford. Or maybe one point for him. Let's go to our next one here. So we have so many stats I want to get to here. We have some great stuff. Dave, give me one simple stat. A stat that you can take with you into your draft and know that you're going to have fantasy success indianapolis has finished top seven in field

goal attempts each of the past two seasons under frank reich and matt ryan led offenses have finished top three in field goal attempts in two of his past three seasons. Last year they didn't because new coaching staff, terrible offensive line, terrible passing game, terrible run game, et cetera, et cetera. I think you can look at Rodrigo Blankenship and know that you've got yourself a top 10 fantasy kicker at minimum. He's worth one of your last two picks, Rodrigo Blankenship. The goggles are legit glasses rule the very most important thing to me about a fantasy kicker is that he can have a bad month and not lose his job

are we sure rodrigo blankenship is in that category are we, are we sure that he's really good? Uh, he's nailed 84% of his field goals through 17 or no 20, which is about average career games. Uh, I think it's okay. I don't know if that's, how many kickers nail 90% of their field.

This has to stop. We're not really talking about, we're just not talking about Rodrigo blanket chip and kickers right now. There's just, it's that we have way too many good stats to be talking about Rodrigo Blankenship and kickers right now. It's that we have way too many good stats to be talking about Rodrigo Blankenship and his field goal percentage. I've got a real simple stat. We'll circle back to quarterbacks later.

Okay, yes. Dave has like 15. That's why I wanted to get to some of those. I was going to, but my access to my good stats was not available this morning. Okay. That was a good one. Good stats or simple stats? Both. We got a lot of other podcasts.

Good podcasts. Some are simple. Some are not. Go to cbssports.com slash podcast. We've got golf. We've got gambling. We've got college football. We've got NFL.

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News and notes. Aaron Rodgers said he will definitely finish his career with Green Bay. All right, cool. DK Metcalf was not at minicamp. It's a three-day minicamp. It's mandatory. His absence was not excused, so it's probably a contract thing.

No DK Metcalf right now. Deontay Johnson, on the other hand, did report to minicamp. Colts linebacker Darius Leonard, for those of you who aren't more of a casual football fan, he's one of the best defensive players in the NFL. He had back surgery in the offseason. He is one of the best defensive players in the NFL. He had back surgery in the offseason.

He is expected back for week one, though. And this was reading an ESPN.com article about David Njoku. This is what Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski said about Njoku.

Certainly want to feature him. I think his skill set, as we all know, great size, great length in terms of catching the football and being able to go up and pluck contested catches. I think there is an evolution that will continue for David. So they are high on him. And obviously his value is going to depend a lot

on Deshaun Watson. And hopefully we'll know soon. I don't know if he's the main tight end and it's Baker Mayfield there. I, I know that Mayfield is one of those tight ends, or quarterbacks, rather, that leans on his tight end. Sorry, yes. And I also know that that receiving core needs a second option. Yes, I'm sorry, Dave. I was really assuming it would not be Baker Mayfield. We had this conversation a bit yesterday.

If it's Mayfield, that's one thing. It's Brissette, Mayfield, Watson. There's huge gaps in between these guys. In fact, I have simple stats on Jacoby Brissette, Mayfield, Watson, there's huge gaps in between these guys. In fact, I have simple stats on Jacoby Brissette. And Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni is impressed with Jalen Hurts. Says he's looking good, accuracy, good reports about Jalen Hurts.

Yes, lots of them. So what's it going to take, Dave, for you to move Jalen Hurts up? Because I think Jalen Hurts is top six for Heath and Jamie. I'm still a little concerned about him keeping this up. It's one thing to throw well in OTAs. It's another thing to throw well when you're up against legit competition. I think he's a lot safer now, getting A.J. Brown help.

These reports definitely help, but I'd still, when I'm taking a quarterback, I definitely would prefer the sure thing. And there are a lot of sure things this year at quarterback. Okay. Go ahead. You're like, cause I know that there are so many sure things.

And because especially in our league streaming is so readily available. Why do you value floor more than upside? If you can find floor on the waiver wire? Well, the floor you find on the waiver wire isn't the same type of floor that you draft in our drafts like round six, round seven. And in average Joe drafts, round four. And so I get what you're saying with the upside of Jalen Hurts. I just, I don't, do you still have him fourth, Heath? Uh-huh.

Yeah. Fifth. I feel like. He and Lamar go back and forth. Okay. I get that. I almost feel like you're drafting Hurts with Lamar Jackson MVP year type of expectations.

Well, he'd be first. When you take him as fifth. He would be first. I'm saying those are your expectations. I think you should lower them a little. I don't think it's ever good to draft a player right near his ceiling. Well, his ceiling number it's still number one qb1 and you're drafting him at four which isn't too far off from one last time i checked well we could just draft no quarterbacks in the top four quarterbacks i don't know i i'm not sure i agree with you dave i didn't

realize dave that you had a maith i thought you still had him more like 11 but so you moved no i moved him up but i also i don't agree with you that that ranking him five is the same as expecting him to be one. Yeah, I don't really know. I don't really know what you what you mean, because you're when you draft Lamar Jackson as a top five quarterback, which I'm willing to do. You know what it comes down to? Like, I'm drafting Lamar Jackson as a top five quarterback because I think he's a he's shown us before that he can be QB one B it's in his profile that he could be. It's harder for me to buy into Hertz as QB one,

because I haven't seen it. And I've seen too much of him passing before. And I'm not all the way there yet that AJ Brown is going to be the reason or half the reason why he'll be QB one. It's just past attempts. I mean, he was QB. What was it?

Three per game and four point. And I think five per game and six point when he was throwing. And then, you know, then they just went so run heavy, but this could turn into a conversation. A's are now used to have a lot. So I don't want to do that,

but do you, is there something about watching Jalen hurts that makes you think he's significantly worse as a passer than his statistics suggest he is oh yeah yes it's inconsistent it's inconsistency yes what is it that lamar jackson and jalen hurts have in common that makes them because i is there any or are there other players i would have to go back and find the stats to back it up. But just based on memory, it feels like they're both inaccurate on intermediate and deep throws. And they both struggle to be where I would want them to be on short throws. And additionally, this is something that's not showing up in the statistics.

They're also on teams that don't historically uh or at least with their current coaching staffs throw the ball a lot it is it does Philadelphia tried it and and they realized especially when they changed play callers last year they they realized that they're better off running the football it does show up in the statistics actually I think Jalen Hertz was one of the least accurate it had the most off-target passes other than Justin Fields or something like that. He, you know,

he was inaccurate in that regard. But I just think that, I think he has a lot of good games. He has too many bad games. And I think the Eagles get frustrated with that. And it's not just the, what I see,

it's not that so much. It's, there's no question about it. They were talking, there were reports that he was going to get benched. There's a reason for that. He wasn't playing as well as the raw passing statistics suggest because he's up and down,

but I was, you know, look, he's a young guy. I think you should be willing to forgive. He was judged a little bit harshly, but this is the make or break year though. Adam,

you knew it from the second that they acquired new Orleans first round pick in the 2023 draft. If Hurts continues on the – if he comes through on these reports that he's more accurate, he's going to end up being outstanding because he might not throw it 35 times per game. He might be in that Russell Wilson range as far as pass attempts go, but he'll give you good numbers passing and good numbers rushing. And as we just talked about with Matthew Stafford, that's a huge key to winning in fantasy

football. He'll finish as a top five fantasy quarterback. He's got to get there. And I don't think he gets much farther than that. And he's got to be able to improve the accuracy. It's as simple as that. If he does it, he'll be great. If he doesn't, this Eagles team will run the ball 58% of the time like they did last year. And he'll be a 22 he doesn't this eagles team will run the ball 58 of the time like they did last year and it'll be a 22 to 24 points per week quarterback which is good but not top five good it's it's an it's but that's basically so you got them ranked as four basically what's that you nothing we can move on from jail yeah let's move on i just we'll talk about him plenty this year yeah if you want i can give you the off target stats if

if you are so interested save it for another save it for the complex stats yeah right it's not doesn't fit in with the show because they're going to feel like every other podcast the subjective stats podcast we should do a subjective stats podcast? Except I'm wrong. I confused him with Lamar Jackson. Jalen Hurts actually sixth fewest off target percentage, like sixth lowest percentage. Thank you for looking that up. Lamar Jackson.

Great simple stat. Third worst. All right. Anyway. That's overall, Adam? Yeah, overall. Let's move on. Simple stats for... Stop. Just on. Simple stats for simple people.

Here we go. Alright, so I'm going to give a stat. You guys give a reaction. I'm giving you two minutes per stat. We're not Jalen Hurts-ing this. Two minutes each or one minute each? We're going to move on after two minutes from each stat. Ah, three minutes. I'll be generous.

Keenan Allen has been a top 12 PPR wide receiver in five straight seasons, but last season was the only year in that stretch that he didn't lead the team in receiving. And Heath, I'll kick it off with you because you said there is a little bit of sentiment for Mike Williams over Keenan Allen. But Keenan Allen, PPR, top 12, five straight seasons.

Full PPR, I think he will be top 12 again. There is some sentiment for Mike Williams over Keenan Allen. I expect Williams is going to do better per catch, and I think Williams is going to score more touchdowns. So if the targets are close, Keenan Allen might be in trouble. I would prefer Mike Williams over Keenan Allen in non-PPR. I'm looking up Jalen Hurd's stat. Come on, are you kidding me?

Are you kidding? He was third in adjusted completion rate on throws behind the line of scrimmage. Okay. So for Keenan Allen, no. If we say the word Jalen Hurts one more time, then I'm done. Keenan Allen, one of the reasons that he did not lead his team in efficiency, and it's now been a two-year problem. It's super weird. I don't think it's Justin Herbert's fault.

But, yes, the first seven years, six years of Keenan Allen's career, he averaged 8.4 yards per target, which is above average and pretty good really um the last two years combined he has averaged 7.0 yards per target which is the same as james connor yeah it's weird i think people are noticing that and they're wondering if he's slipping up he's 30 years old or he's going to be 30 years old at least if he's not already he's going to be 30 years old uh for the season like his a dot did fall a lot from 2019 to 2020 it went from 10.1 to 7.2 but in 2021 it was almost exactly what it was in 2018 so that's not the explanation no i'll tell you i'll give you one here's where keenan allen has ranked in the last five years in 20 plus yard catches eighth 23rd 21st 43rd and 34th so he's making fewer big plays and then there's a touchdown thing too he's got this Julio Jones thing where it's like he gets so many targets from a quarterback who throws a lot of touchdowns

why can't he score more than six or eight is it because he doesn't make big plays? Yes. It makes a lot more sense than Julio. Like, because he has, he almost has to score in the red zone, Keenan Allen. Julio would score three touchdowns a year from outside the 20 and would score four for the entire year. But yeah, it's just the type, I think players like him,

a low touchdown rate's not as surprising. Okay. Dave, for you, do you think we'll wrap it up here? Do you think Keenan Allen finishes as a top 12 wide receiver? In PPR? Yes, because he's still top six and targets per game. And I still think he's going to have a lot of throws coming his way from Justin Herbert, the nature of the offense, the fact that they didn't really address wide receiver this off

season. I think it, I think it bodes well for Keenan Allen to squeeze out another top 12 year. 42% of his PPR points last year came from receptions. It's one of the highest among wide receivers in fantasy. I forgot to mention we're going to be talking about offensive lines later in the show. Some that got a lot better this offseason, some that got worse, and what it means for fantasy. Second simple stat for simple people. Over the last five seasons, only Keenan Allen and Devontae Adams have more catches than Travis Kelsey.

How about that? Travis Kelsey is third in catches over the last five years behind Keenan Allen and Devontae Adams. And Heath, I said this to you on FFTN5, I feel like he should be a top six pick. He's in PBR. He's a lock for a ton of catches. I would say even what do you have him projected for i have travis kelsey 110 no not 110 i haven't projected for 94 catches that's

it it's a little bit low but like projections are not supposed to be outliers they that's well at least mine aren't some people do that but um i think 94 catches would be the second or third best mark of his career and maybe i'm not accounting for enough of an increase for him um no i guess he did have be bad heath i'm i'm low on travis kelsey catches i'm gonna i'm gonna bump yeah let's go yeah let's go let's get triple digits there right now on the show probably gonna but he was already a first rounder for me anyway and that's kind of the point like the guy who has been third in the nfl and catches over the last five years while playing with tyree kill now does not have tyree kill and he's not a first round pick.

Yeah. Dave, what do you think? I don't think he's the first round pick, but I think a lot of it has to do with the number of running backs that people are going to continue to gravitate toward because that position gets thin quickly. And so we go,

Charlie Brown, first round pick. I know, I know, I know half of them won't work out, but you can still, you can still find tight ends later on that are not Travis Kelsey good, but they're going to be fine. I think he's a top 15 pick.

I'm not going to complain if you take him 9th, 10th, 11th. But we reviewed a draft earlier this week where he went 6th. I think that's a mistake. Even with the advantage that you'll have at tight end sixth. I think that's a mistake. Even with the advantage that you'll have at tight end, I feel like that's a mistake. And I also think that the Chiefs offense is going to be a little different this year. I think they'll be defended differently because there's no Tyreek Hill on the field. And I can't say that that's going to be a great thing for Travis Kelsey. It really comes down to how much Sky Moore slash McCall Hardman slash

Marquez Valdez Scantling make an impact and an impression on the defenses that play against the chiefs and throw Juju in there too. He's there too. What if he ends up being, what if he regained some explosiveness? Okay. Let's talk about our third stat. And that is from,

that is Mike Evans stat in PPR. It's kind of similar to Keenan Allen. It's just, he doesn't catch a ton of passes. So PPR is Mike Evans, worst format yet. He has been a top 14 wide receiver at the end of the year, not necessarily per game,

but top 14 in six of eight seasons. Dave, would you agree? Mike Evans has a pretty damn high floor, even in full PPR? The floor goes away if he suddenly stops scoring touchdowns. Now, the thing that I actually like for Evans this year is that we don't know what this receiving core in Tampa is going to end up looking like when the season starts. If there's no Godwin and there's no Gronk, then he might actually see an uptick in targets to begin the year.

And Brady's shown an affinity for him in the red zone. I really don't think the touchdowns are going to go away. You should bank on at least eight, maybe 12 from Mike Evans this year. That definitely helps his profile. He'll continue to see, um obviously a lead role in the passing game and he's been a lock for a thousand yards every year of his career yeah she certainly has i think people are concerned about the age he'll be 29 years old and he's average that's not an age to be concerned about 60 i don't care last two years he's averaged

63 yards per game and 65 yards per game if If you take out the New Orleans game last year where he barely played, it would have been 68 yards per game, which is still not... Almost nice. It's not great, though, Heath. What do you make of that? Mike Evans, do you feel like his floor is wide receiver 14? Obviously, I'm not factoring injury or anything like that. No, because if Chris Godwin's ready for the start of the year

and russell gage takes antonio brown's targets i don't think evans is going to score at the same rate he has the last two years but just because no one does for an extended period of time my rule generally speaking is i don't project anybody for higher than a 7% touchdown rate because nobody like Tyree kills played with Patrick Mahomes for most of his career. And Patrick Holmes has one of the highest touchdown rates in NFL history. And Tyree kills touchdown rate is eight. So Mike Evans over the last two years has scored at a 12% rate. That's, that's a really big difference.

And he didn't, it's not like he was doing that before. He was right around six. I wonder what the correlation is. Well, I mean, it's Tom Brady. Hello. Right. But we've seen Brady loves him in the end zone. I mean, Brady loves throwing to Mike Evans in the end zone I mean Brady loves throwing Mike Evans in

the end zone it's crazy it's like his first and second maybe that's just going to make Mike Evans the greatest touchdown scorer ever I'm not ever going to project that I I don't think is Russell Gage really you I think you were just giving a scenario but Russell Gage is not going to be Antonio Brown he's not going to be as efficient he's not going to be as efficient. He's not going to get as many targets. He's not. He's Russell Gage. He's not going to affect Mike Evans. Right?

No, it's not somebody affecting Mike Evans. It's Mike Evans needing to seize a larger share of the targets than he's had. It's not like I'm afraid Mike Evans is going to lose targets. He's had 109, 114 targets over the last two seasons, and he's played 16 games each year. That's not anywhere close to a top 14 wide receiver. That's true. No, but he was on pace for 127 targets

if you take out the New Orleans game. And that's in 17 games. He played only 25% of the season. Well, it is, but... It's a good Acer stat. Okay. I'll accept it. Next stat is about Debo Samuel and Jamar Chase.

And remember, we are talking offensive line, so stay tuned for that later. We're going to take a quick break here. When we come back, we'll tell you what you need to know about Debo and Chase, two of the best wide receivers in fantasy last year, but extremely efficient. Can they do it again?

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. All right, this one comes from Heath. So did the Travis Kelsey catches stat, by the way. Debo Samuel and Jamar Chase were the first two wide receivers to average at least 18 yards per catch on 120 or more targets since Josh Gordon. So unbelievable efficiency. Who are you more afraid of regression with Jamar Chase or Debo Samuel? I think that's an easy one, but I'll let

you answer it anyway. Yeah, it's definitely Debo. And like we talked about, Debo pretty much has to have the rushing or he's not probably going to be a top five wide receiver or maybe even a top 10 wide receiver next year. Chase has to have an increase in volume. If he gets the same number of targets he did last year, like we talked about on FFT and five, Randy Moss is the only wide receiver who's ever averaged 18 yards per catch on 120 targets more than once in a season. He only did it twice in his entire career. So we should not expect the same efficiency from Jamar Chase next year. He's going to have to, and you've talked about it, what do you have, five catches, five touchdowns of 50 or more yards? Yeah. Pretty sure. That's just not going to happen every year. So he does have to see a big increase in target volume.

Last year, Debo had 23.5% of his PPR points come from catches, 27.5% from touchdowns, and 49% from yardage, two-point conversions, basically everything that isn't a catch or a touchdown. The touchdown rate, third highest of any wide receiver. The yards, the highest of any wide receiver. The yards, the highest of any wide receiver. Remember, he had a lot of rushing yards to go along with it. The catches were the lowest of any wide receiver. This is all among wideouts in the top 20 in fantasy points per game.

Here's the only thing I want to add with Debo, though, and get your thoughts on it. I've talked about this before. I'll talk about it again as we get closer to the season. In his first nine games, he only had 11 carries. And in those nine games, his receiving pace,

Deebo Samuel, 102 catches, 1,849 yards, and nine touchdowns on 162 targets. So he averaged about nine targets per game. And then in the last nine games, the last seven games, when he had

48 carries, he was on pace for only 85 targets compared to 162 targets in his first nine games. So my question is he averaged 21 fantasy points per game in those first nine. Yeah, and he probably wasn't that much worse than the last nine because he was scoring so many rushing touchdowns.

He was on pace for I don't even have his rushing totals, but his pace Yeah, and he probably wasn't that much worse in the last nine because he was scoring so many rushing touchdowns. He was on pace for... I don't even have his rushing totals, but his pace for rushing totals. But six rushing touchdowns in those seven games. But anyway, my question is, do you think the targets went down in the second half because he was running the ball more?

And if they just use him as a wide receiver, could Debo Samuel be a legit top five wide receiver just as a pass catcher? How realistic is that? I think it's possible. It depends because for a lot of those first nine games, Brandon Ayuk was in the doghouse. Also true. We talked about how good Brandon Ayuk was in the second half of the season.

He was a top 15-ish type wide receiver. And Kittle was hurt for some of the first nine games too. What? Kittle was hurt for some of the first nine games too. So, and he's got Trey Lance playing offense now. I would presume that all the concerns we have about Jalen Hurts apply to Trey Lance and then some. For sure.

Oh, yeah. Yes. It's the combination of Trey Lance, who's also getting good reports from his otas and minicamps it's a matter of how good is he as a passer how much will they throw how well will the offensive line protect them that's a little foreshadowing for later on this podcast and um how many targets is debo going to earn playing in an offense with Kittle and Iuke on the field consistently yeah I feel like we're going to be lower on Debo than ADP will be but we'll see let me let me check

ADP real quick on Debo Samuel and then we'll move on to our next stat which probably won't take too long Debo Samuel right now is what yeah he's he's wide receiver six. Where do you guys have him? I have May. All right. 16th overall in ADP since May 1st. I got him 24. Who's higher him or Mike Evans?

Evans. Okay. I've got Debo hires now. If Chris Godwin's ready for week one, Debo or Evans? Debo now if Chris Godwin's ready for week one Debo or Evans he's Debo if Chris Godwin's ready for week one then I'll just take Evans put

him behind Debo and put Godwin ahead of Debo yeah all right over the here's our net over the last 21 games so Jonathan Taylor he scored 25 rushing and two receiving touchdowns

in his last 21 games dating back to the end of the 2020 season Jonathan Taylor 25 rushing two receiving touchdowns in his last 21 games, dating back to the end of the 2020 season. Jonathan Taylor, 25 rushing, two receiving touchdowns in his last 21 games. That's bonkers. This one could be quick. Does this matter? Does this matter to you guys?

I mean, he's basically Derrick Henry. What do you think? He's, in his last 23 games, including the playoffs, he has not scored a touchdown in five games. So you almost pencil him in for a touchdown every time he's on the field. He had almost 400 touches. He didn't miss a game. He's got great metrics, including in the passing game.

I'm not going to get into that, though, because we're talking simple stats. And he gets a lot of work. He's the best young running back his last how many games last 23 games he has not scored in five i just didn't have the playoffs it was the last 21 games is what you were saying uh-huh i was just wondering how many so derrick henry has zero receiving touchdowns but he has 25 rushing 25 rushing. In his last 21 games. In his last 21 games. So Taylor has 25 rushing and two receiving touchdowns.

And he's going to catch more passes than Derrick Henry. Not by a mile, but he's a little more involved in the passing game. Baker's dozen more. Henry's just goes a little further. He's got 39 touchdowns in his last 31 games. Right. Those are my top two running backs in fantasy this year. I'm I've got a top two pick.

I'm a happy camper. Yeah. 51, 53 in his last 44 games. I think my favorite Derrick Henry stat is if you take his game log from before that Jacksonville game on Thursday night to that turning point in his career. And just the type of player he is since that

beginning with that game i don't remember what it was 200 yards four touchdowns what most amazing game 38 and four and since that moment he's played 43 games his 17 game pace is 2012 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns yeah Yeah, it's unbelievable. And how many carries? 390. That's his pace. 390 for 17 days. Remember the curse of 390? He just did it for four years. Yeah, amazing. He didn't get hurt, though. All right, let's go to our next one. He had a freak

injury that he played through for the game. I want to get your thoughts on Tyler Lockett, because the narrative, oh, Lockett's going to be hurt more than Metcalf because he had all those great plays. We're also Wilson scrambling around, throwing downfield,

hitting Tyler Lockett. We know. Don't forget about 2020, though. Tyler Lockett completely changed his game. His ADOT was 9.7 yards, much lower than what it usually is. And Tyler Lockett

was a top 12 wide receiver per game in both half and non-PPR. He had 100 catches, 1,054 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 16 games. So the simple stat is just that Tyler Lockett showed in 2020 he can be a different type of receiver and still finish as a top 12 wide receiver. Now, Russell Wilson threw a ton of touchdowns.

I'm not saying that he has top 12 upside without Wilson, but I just did want to point that out that Lockett has that 2020 season where he did have success in a different role. Dave, what does that mean to you? It still doesn't solve my concerns about the types of targets that he gets or the quality of targets that he's going to get from Gino Smith or drew lock. I'm, I'm still crossing my fingers and my toes that either Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo end up in Seattle to help these wide receivers out. I'm pretty comfortable still drafting DK, figuring that he's just going to get

fed and they'll force it to him a little bit more than maybe they have in the past when they decide to throw the football or when they have to throw the football. I'm not saying that they're suddenly going to become a pass happy team. That's not going to happen, but it makes sense that if Lockett's going to get shorter targets to try and help out the quarterback that isn't Russell Wilson, then it's going to be theoretically easier for him to have a better catch rate and to see more catchable targets and to do more with them, I still am worried about him finishing as a top 20, top 24 type of wide receiver, even if that's the case, because when you're bringing that ADOT in, I get concerned about how many more explosive plays he'll make when it's with a quarterback that's not buying an extra two or three seconds of time to make a play.

I do think it's possible, Adam, and you maybe illustrate this with your simple stat, that we are over-weighting a three or four-game stretch without Russell. However, three and a half-game stretch without Russell Wilson last year. And saying, obviously, Lockett's going to be much better because he was so much better in those three games without Russell Wilson. Because since DK's coming to the league, Tyler Lockett's going to be much better because he was so much better in those three games without Russell Wilson because since DK's coming to the league Tyler Lockett's much worse because when DK was much better than Lockett without Russell Wilson yeah and I think like that has turned into well there's no Russell Wilson so now DK is going to be better than Tyler Lockett right they've been almost identical in the three years since DK Metcalf entered the NFL. Lockett has more catches, more yards.

DK Metcalf has three more touchdowns. DK did definitely see a lot more targets last year, but I think a lot of that was based on those three games when there was no Russ. And the year before, Lockett had more targets and more catches and more the same number of touchdowns so I don't know that the separation between them is quite as big as what the perceived reality seems to be I think I have 26 for DK and 36 for Lockett yeah mine's definitely not like that and I might be right as much closer to much closer to Dave. Yeah. Okay. Right.

And if you look at last year, points per game, Lockett was 18th in PPR. DK was 23rd. 2020, they were awesome. They were both top 12. DK 10th, Lockett 12th. You'd have to go back to Metcalf's rookie season where there was a big gap between the two of them. Lockett was still a top 24 receiver and ppr points per game dk wasn't even a top 40 receiver in ppr points per game there's not been a full season where

dk's been definitely a lot better than lockett i don't know no no and i think that's a testament to how good lockett's been and i also think that it's a different it's a different quarterback with different skill sets whoever it's going to be And Metcalf hasn't really shown that he can play that different role. He's one of the best at what he does. But Lockett might be more versatile than him. And it's really not that hard for me to see a scenario where they have a bad passing game and Lockett ends up being better in full PPR

because he has a lot more catches. And I think you do a good job of bringing this up. And I'll just do it again. Like a lot of DK's production without Russell Wilson came on one play where the corner fell down. Yep. Oh, last year.

Absolutely. But to be fair, Lockett has a lot of plays. I don't know if I want to call them fluke plays, but big plays. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Something exciting happens on the play where we've known Lockett to be that type of receiver much more. I mean, they made a whole commercial ad out of it. But Lockett's been that guy a little bit more than DK over the last few years. Yeah, I get that. I just wanted to point out that 2020 season was not really like that when he had 100 catches and a much lower ADOT, Tyler Lockett. No, this was a good conversation. This is one that resonated with me. All right, so we're running out of time a little bit here, and I've got too many stats.

So I'll pick one more of these three. You guys can help me. You want Jacoby Brissett, which is really going to be more about the receivers. No. Austin Eckler. Oh, I want the next one. Go with the third one.

Give me the third one. Mac Jones versus Josh Allen. Mac Jones and Josh Allen, 100%. Okay, I just want to say that Jacoby Brissett has been so bad for receivers. So, so bad. But anyway, Mac Jones had a higher completion percentage, higher yards per attempt, and better passer rating

than Josh Allen. And this is really more about Josh Allen. You may not realize it. Allen went from a 69.2% completion rate to 63.3% from 2020 to 2021. He averaged 7.9 yards per attempt in 2020, down 6.8 yards per attempt in 2021. And his passer rating fell 15 points from 107.2 to 92.2. And within this, there are some advanced metrics.

But Josh Allen did not have a great season as a passer and he still finished his QB one. So this is a Jalen hurts. This is actually, to me, it's a Stefan digs that, but go ahead. No,

I like this illustrates a point that I'm afraid to say a very often on social media, but like, because of Bill's mafia, but Josh Allen has one year as a great passer. Yeah. It looks like an outlier. If you look at the,

now I know Adam, you will say just completely throw away his rookie year, which is fine. But if you just look at 2019, 2020 and 2021, 2019 and 2021 look very much more similar than 2020 does. Yeah, I do have a lot to say about this.

I think if you look at the postseason games and if you were to add those games, he had something like 650 yards and nine touchdowns and no interceptions. It probably boosts his numbers quite a bit, but it's clear to me what happened. In the first seven games, he had 103.1 passer rating, and he was throwing the ball downfield,

and he averaged 8.8 air yards per pass attempt. This is not simple. I'm sorry. But what happened was defenses, just like they did with the Chiefs, they did the same thing to the Bills bills and they started to take away the deep ball. His air yards went way down. His production went way down. This is Josh Allen.

I'm talking about, and I'm thinking that they figured it out late in the season, the same way the chiefs did. They, yeah, teams kind of got to the bills a little bit for about half a year. And then late in the season, same way the Chiefs did. Teams kind of got to the Bills a little bit for about half a year. And then late in the season, same thing with the Chiefs.

We saw that offense kick back into gear. So I do think Josh Allen was a really, really good passer last year, even if the raw numbers at the end of the year don't show it. I think they got figured out a bit. But hopefully they adjusted back. But that happened to a lot of quarterbacks at one point last year,

where the deep ball was being taken away and these offenses had to adjust. I think the bills did. I think they showed that late in the year and in the playoffs. I think the chiefs did as well. So that's my hope for Allen. And that's why I think Stefan Diggs has true wide receiver one potential because he was really good last year with Allen having a down year, but there are a lot of ways you can go with this.

Dave, what do you want to say? I would say that let's talk about the bad games for Josh Allen. Week nine, nine fantasy points. Man, defenses must have figured him out because in week 10, he had 24, which for Allen isn't great, but still you would take 24 fantasy points from a quarterback. Week 11, 19 fantasy points. Week 12, 34.

That was the top among all quarterbacks. Week 13 was the win game throw that one out weeks 14 through 18 he had two games with over 35 fantasy points two more with over 25 fantasy points he averaged 29 fantasy points per game he finished the regular season strong he averaged 26.9 fantasy points per game if he did get figured out, the Bills were able to react to it a lot faster than the Chiefs did. Part of the solution was Josh Allen's ability to run with the ball. And this is why this is a Jalen Hurts stat. He was able to run the ball and be effective doing that to help make up for the lack of amazing passing metrics that he had in the first chunk of the season.

Yeah, he had zero games in the first 13 weeks of the season with more than 55 yards rushing. In those weeks that Dave was talking about where he was so good as a fantasy quarterback, 109 yards and a touchdown, then only 24, then 64 yards, 81 and two touchdowns, and 63. Like he just, and it wasn't necessarily like a couple of games. It was a lot more rushing. The thing that worries me, he did have 12 attempts or more in three of those games. And he had no games with 12 attempts in the first three months of the season. He was passing the ball better, right?

Do you think there's a correlation? Well, a couple of those terrible games Dave mentioned, no. Against Jacksonville, when they lost 6-9, he was awful and ran the ball five times. It's a terrible game. But against Indianapolis, when they lost 41-15, he ran the ball two times for 18 yards and wasn't passing well. So the thing that worries me,

and this is, I think, an underrated storyline, and it's underrated because nobody knows exactly where it's going to go. There was conflict, allegedly, between McDermott and Brian Dable. And allegedly, McDermott wanted to run the ball more, and Brian Dable did not. And then they went out and tried to get J.D. McKissick

and tried to get James Cook, or got James Cook. I wonder if McDermott wants running backs to run the ball more and not his $100 million quarterback. Well, if that's what he wants, the GM doesn't agree. Because other than flirting with J.D. McKissick, they did nothing. They did nothing with their running back until the draft. And then James Cook with J.D. McKissick,

they announced that they'd come to an agreement with him. Those guys aren't running the ball. They're passing game backs. They're passing backs. Exactly. Which throwing the ball to your running backs is generally done by less, by quarterbacks who don't run as much. Sure.

I mean, maybe, but Kyler Murray's an exception. What? And I think Josh Allen will be an exception too. I still think this offense revolves completely around him. Their actions over the last multiple call it two or three off seasons certainly suggest that they are all in on josh allen that's what we love to see well 100 like wait wait wait i was not saying that the bills are not building their offense around josh allen i'm saying i think it's possible they want the offense to function

well i think it's definitely true the offense is going to function differently than it did we don't know how for sure i think i think the the move to get a pass catching running back is to combat defenses playing a lot of cover two against them there the defenses are saying we're not going to get beat deep by stefan diggs or gabriel davis and the bills say cool we already had devin singletary doing some good work as say, cool, we already had Devin Singletary doing some good work as a pass catcher. We already had Dawson Knox doing good work as a pass catcher. We've got slot receivers now coming out the yin-yang, even though Cole Beasley isn't on the team anymore. Now we've also added another element in James Cook, do your worst. That might hurt Josh Allen from having a bunch of 40 and 50-yard touchdowns.

And that's what you're getting at, I think, Heath. But it'll improve his completion rate. I think throwing the running backs means less quarterback runs. Generally. I think that they still implement a lot of it, especially in the red zone. And I bet the basic stats that Adam brought up are going to improve because he's throwing higher percentage passes to shorter targets if defenses continue to play cover two against them.

So far, I really think you could have gone in so many directions with this stat. The stat was Mac Jones had a higher completion percentage yards per attempt and passer rating than Josh Allen. We never talked about Mac Jones for one second. You could say Josh Allen, all these things, and he still finished QB one. You know, you could, you could take all these angles. I thought it was really interesting for Stefan digs and even for, for all the receivers or Gabriel Davis or Dawson Knox,

because I think Josh Allen is capable of, of more, of better passing stats than what we saw last year. Not saying he's going to do what he did in 2020, but that was a fun one. That was a good debate. Thank you, guys. All right. You guys are both on the show tomorrow, 10 a.m. Eastern, so we'll do offensive line on that show. Dedicate enough time to it.

Sure. Dave, did you have any other stats? I really like your 30 touchdown stat. Your 30 passing touchdown stat. Yeah, I was doing some research for quarterbacks just trying to find i wanted to try and find a stat that would correlate well to fantasy success with quarterbacks and so i looked at you know passing a dot and you know intermediate stuff the things that i've been talking about for a while. And the one stat that's correlated is just passing touchdowns, which I feel like a Neanderthal talking about.

It's the simplest of simple stats. Here's what I got. There were nine quarterbacks last year that threw 30 or more touchdowns. All nine finished top 10 in fantasy points per game. There was a 10th quarterback that finished top 10. Obviously, that was Kyler Murray. He totaled 29 touchdowns, and that was only in 14 games. If he had played 17 games, pretty sure he would have had at least 30 or more touchdowns. 2020, 13 quarterbacks had at

least 30 touchdowns. Of the top 12 in total touchdowns, all 12 finished top 12 in fantasy points per game, assuming you exclude quarterbacks who played seven or fewer games in 2020. Derek Carr had 30 touchdowns in 2020. He would have finished his QB 15 if you eliminate the quarterbacks that played in nine or fewer games. And in 2021, he only had 23 touchdowns that finished QB 18. If you eliminate quarterbacks who played six or fewer games, when you draft a quarterback, think about their possibilities of getting 30 or more touchdowns. If you think they can do it, and a lot of quarterbacks can, that makes them draftable. Getting or throwing? I think it's more about getting than throwing, but certainly throwing helps.

Like that's what keeps Brady, Rogers, Stafford in the conversation of being top 10 to top 12 fantasy quarterbacks. It seems so simple that I kind of feel bad saying it because I think people expect more from a fantasy analyst, but this is just how it's gone. It's quarterback. It's a great stat. It's like this in other positions too. Score touchdowns, get fantasy points.

It's my least favorite part about fantasy football. I like it. I like it. Because touchdowns get fantasy points it's my least favorite part about fantasy football i like it i don't i like because touchdown well i mean it's probably what makes it more fun as well but like it is easier to project targets and catches and yards than it is touchdowns but touchdowns matter so much more well Well, I think to follow up on this stat, 2017 was a terrible year for quarterbacks. Alex Smith was QB3 that year. Russell Wilson was QB1 with the fewest fantasy points. Alex Smith was really good that year.

Who? That was an important year for the history of the Andy Reid offense. Oh, yes, it was. But anyway, since 2018, the last four seasons, Deshaun Watson is the only quarterback that's finished top five with fewer than 30 touchdown passes. And we've got to raise the bar a little bit now because we have 17 games. But again, Deshaun Watson, his highest finish was QB four overall. This is six point per passing touchdown leagues. It is totally different in four point. But in six point per passing touchdown leagues, no quarterback has finished higher than fourth in the last four seasons with, uh, oh no, I guess higher than third with fewer than 30 touchdown passes. So that does make me wonder, does Jalen Hurts really have QB one upside? Cause I don't personally see him throwing for 30 touchdown passes, but then again, nobody lamar jackson throwing for 37 you know it could always happen but i did you know 30 touchdown passes is a pretty good milestone and

in a 16 game season was it was a pretty good indicator something you more or less needed to do to finish top five and this was um yeah i was i i always struggle with whether we're talking about for the full season or per game yeah Yeah, full season. But full season. Well, you know, per game, you're talking about a cumulative number of touchdowns. It's not really fair on the per game thing. Right. But, yeah, it's something to keep in mind. I think, you know, Kyler Murray was sixth at one point,

and he had a very realistic season for what Jalen Hurts might be able to accomplish. But, anyway, good stat. Thank you, guys. Good stuff. Send us your emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Tomorrow's going to be a busy show. I'm going to try to do Apple Podcasts, emails, and YouTube comments at the end.

We're going to talk about offensive lines tomorrow and also players who have the biggest gap between the earliest we'll see them picked and the latest we'll see them picked based on NFC average draft position since May 1st. Like I said yesterday, Michael Thomas going in the second round in some drafts and 100th overall in one draft. So wow. Yeah. You all saw the video of him running. I didn't know it's out there. First round. Check your local social media accounts.

All right. For Dave and Heath, I'm Adam. Thanks very much for tuning in, everybody. Really appreciate it. And we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.