Fantasy Football Today - Simple WR Stats; Best and Worst Offensive Lines (06/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 10, 2021

Jerry Jeudy saw a lot of inaccurate passes, which player with 100+ targets saw more off-target passes than Jeudy (2:15)? And let's give you some simple/important stats about WRs. Keenan Allen has been a Top 12 PPR WR in four straight seasons (8:40). Tyler Lockett has had around 1,000 receiving yards and 8-10 TDs in three straight seasons (13:10). Robert Woods has never been a Top 12 WR on a per game basis (19:05). What do we make of these stats? ... A lot of QB news (29:10) as we give you the latest on Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson. Plus, will Baltimore actually throw to their RBs this season? ... PFF ranked all of the offensive lines heading into 2021 (34:50). Which teams have the best lines? Which teams have the worst lines? What matters for Fantasy purposes? ... Your Apple Podcast questions to finish the show (46:00). Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?

Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline at 1-866-531-2600.

BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Today on the show, we've got the best and worst offensive lines according to Pro Football Focus heading into 2021. The Cleveland Browns are number one. You'll never guess who's number 32. Adam Azer, Dave Richard, and Heath Collings. Before we get to that, you've heard of advanced stats. I'm giving you simple stats about wide receivers.

Sometimes we get so bogged down in advanced stats, average depth of target, and those things. Maybe you just want to know that Robert Woods has never finished as a top 12 wide receiver per game. Maybe you should just know that. What does that mean? We'll talk about those types of things. Dave and Heath,

hello. Hi. Hello. Hello. What's up, hello hi hello hello what's up adam how are you good how are you yeah i i just completed like just seconds ago as you were doing your intro it was beautiful from what i could tell one of your best ever i just completed a uh fantasy football trade. Oh. On a Wednesday in June. It is a keeper salary cap league, but I just traded Jerry Judy and what will likely be

a late 22 first for Patrick Mahomes. Very confident in your dynasty team. Yeah. All right. Jerry Judy. I think it's a steal for Mahomes. Very confident in your dynasty team. Yeah. All right, Jerry, I think it's a steal for Mahomes. Steal to have Mahomes for the rest of his career.

That's what we're looking at here. The way it's set up, I'm probably not going to keep because your salary's increased. Most people don't get kept forever, but yeah, I'll have Mahomes for the next four or five years for sure. Awesome.

Well done. Yeah. Good job. We're giving it a solid B plus. It's a, it's a big time win for Heath. Uh, Dave,

speaking of Jerry Judy, I know you had a fun wide receiver or tight end stat. We don't even know, but Jerry Judy saw a catchable throw on 58.1 percent of his targets nope nope nope 48 48.1 no no no we're talking about catchable not what his catch rate was i am sorry it's okay so basically yeah so for the first time he's about something. I'm kind of excited about that. That's fun. I didn't know it was the first time.

Yeah. So what he did was... Yeah. So just to repeat the stat, a catchable throw on 58.1% of his targets. That's terrible. Go ahead, Dave. You take the number of drops that a receiver has. You'd assume that he'd catch those passes.

Those are on target throws. You add that to the number of catches that he has. You divide by the total number of targets he gets bada bing bada boom you've got your on target percentage laid out for you and a lot of receivers had an on target percentage let's see let's just go look at some of the guys that had a very high on target percentage. I mean, we got dudes that are in the 90s, the 80s. Here's one that's at 82.7%. None other than Stephon Diggs. How about that? What if I told you that before the season started,

that Diggs would see a catchable target on almost 83% of his throws? You'd say, wow, what happened to Josh Allen? And, well, that's kind of what we'll say. Even more impressive that he's not a running back or a slot receiver or something like that. you'd say, wow, what happened to Josh Allen? And, well, that's kind of what we'll say. Even more impressive that he's not a running back or a slot receiver or something like that. Right, well, it doesn't really make sense to do this for running backs, but for receivers and tight ends, I think it's kind of an interesting stat. Yeah.

And to see it for Judy, what you're hoping for, and maybe this is what will happen if Teddy Bridgewater is the quarterback there or if Drew Locke can be a more accurate throw. I can't even say that with a straight face. You could see that his numbers could go up. He had 113 targets last year. That was good enough to finish, I think, 23rd among wide receivers. He was sixth in air yards. He had some good qualities to him. He's got to hold on to the damn football. But if you're a receiver and not even 60 of the throws that are coming your way or uh on target it's it's a problem can i confess something and people may have noticed this um when i talk about catchable rate i and there's

other a couple other stats like this where there's like six different sites that monitor the number, I usually just say approximately 60% or just under 60% because everybody's number is different. There's not an accepted catchable rate. The NFL is not keeping that number. Okay. I just looked on a different site and it showed 62%. Not to take away from that, the stat is very true. And as Chris Towers would say,

drops don't matter until it matters to the coach or the quarterback. So I think the point is taken. Jerry Judy, I just wrote about it this week in the Dynasty Wide Receiver Rankings. He absolutely is a fantastic buy low.

Okay, but this wasn't even about Jerry Judy. So Dave said that Judy saw a catchable throw on 58.1% of his targets. Second worst. This was the second part of it. Second worst among wide receivers with 100 plus targets. Who had it worse? I thought it was wide receivers and tight ends,. Second worst among wide receivers with 100 plus targets. Who had it worse? I thought it was wide receivers and tight ends, but it's just wide receivers. So who saw even a lower percentage of catchable throws

with 100 plus targets, Dave? Who was it? No guesses? Nobody wants to take a guess? I've got a guess. Go ahead. I read the email. I should guess. Okay, so don't guess. Adam, did you read the email? Because I put it in at the very end. No, I didn't. How did I not see that? Because you're dumb. Now,

take a guess on who you think had a worst catchable target rate. A lot of targets. I'll say... Can I give you a clue? Yeah. Think of someone who also had a terrible catch rate. I'm going to say Evan Ingram.

It's a good guess. But he's not a wide receiver. Not correct. I'll give you Evan Ingram's catch rate i'm gonna say evan ingram it's a good guess but he's not a wide receiver not correct i'll get the evan ingrams that's why i was saying the wide receiver well the original part of the email said wide receivers tight ends i thought but evan ingram's catchable target rate was 69.6 nice nice so i i think that that's actually like a surprise. You'd expect that to be a little bit lower. This show is not going to be about this stat, Dave. Just give me the answer. Who is it?

A.J. Green, 49.5% of his targets in 2020 were on target, which means the inverse, 50.5% were off target. So if Kyler is probably an upgrade over, well, he's definitely an upgrade over the non-Joe Burrow quarterbacks in Cincinnati. I'd have to go back and see how many of Joe Burrow's throws were off target. Yes, I'd like to know that. I'd like to know that. I would too.

But I'm not really going to look that up right now. I'd rather talk about what we're going to talk about on today's show. Look it up some other time. That's the cliffhanger for the next podcast. Good. Maybe that could mean that A.J. Green's up some other time. That's the cliffhanger for the next podcast. Good. Maybe that could mean that A.J. Green's not just a throw. Maybe he's a good

late-round pick that people are using on Rondo Moore. Maybe it should be used on A.J. Green. All right. Last night, Tuesday night. I know you're hearing this on Thursday. We're recording it on Wednesday late afternoon. Tuesday night's mock draft was awesome. We had a great time. We hope you were there to join us. We had a lot of people in there chatting with us on YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football today. We had a great time. We hope you were there to join us. We had a lot of people in there chatting with us on YouTube.com slash

Fantasy Football Today. We're going to be live next Tuesday again, 7pm Eastern. Basically, set the calendar invite. 7pm Eastern. Well, you're not invited to be on the show, but you're invited to watch. We'll have another mock draft. Be there. YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today.

7pm Eastern next Tuesday. We will see you there. 7 p.m. Eastern, next Tuesday. We will see you there. Subscribe to the channel. Turn the notifications on. You'll know exactly when we're going live. And we'll see you at YouTube.com slash fantasy football today, Tuesday, 7 p.m. Eastern. A reminder, you can watch all of our shows at that URL, YouTube.com slash fantasy football today.

They're not live, but you can watch them, you know, like you listen to the podcast. Okay. Simple stats for simple people. That was the name of the segment. Of course, the first time I wrote it, I misspelled the word simple. I've got the L.

So that really worked. But these are some simple stats because really, you can get so bogged down in all these advanced stats and they're great. But sometimes it helps just to know something like this.

Keenan Allen, in his last four seasons, has been top 12 per game in PPR every year. He has been top eight three times. Fourth, twelfth, eighth, and sixth. That's where he's finished each of the last four seasons in full PPR. And his ADP is wide receiver 10. He's not as good in non-PPR.

He's been fourth, 16th-PPR. He's been 4th, 16th, 18th, and 13th. So only one top 12 per game finish in non-PPR and only one top 10 per game finish in half PPR.

That actually stood out to me. He's been... He had one year where he had almost 1,400 yards and he was 4th per game in every format. But in half PPR,

he's been 15th, 12th, and 11th per game each of the last three seasons. But in PPR, fourth, 12th, eighth, and sixth in four straight seasons. So that tells me something, Heath. I mean, that just tells me there's a lot of safety there with Keenan Allen. I know you like him quite a bit.

Yeah, I think in my projections, I've actually got him number five, and it's because of, partially at least, because of an Azerstat, that it wasn't given as an Azerstat. But I'm trying to compile it once again. He played 11 complete games with Justin Herbert last year. I thought it was 12. Well, it was 12 when we talked about it before but we didn't

realize remember in the middle of that conversation he actually left one of those games early he left two games early last year he left two games early last year me oh my and so in those 11 games he had 93 catches for 909 yards and seven touchdowns. Do you have the 16 game pace for that? I'll give you the same. That's 135 catch pace. My goodness. And his target share was basically what it always is.

With Herbert, it was about 27%, which is what it's been between 25% and 28% for straight years. Part of that is that they ran so many plays because he actually averaged 12.2 targets per game in those 11 games. He was at

10.5 targets per game overall in the season. That was second most among all receivers. If you did 12.2 for a full season this year, that's 207 targets. And they lost Hunter Henry. Yeah, they did. But they gained Jared Cook. And the other thing is,

the seven touchdowns in, and he actually scored eight with Herbertbert but he scored one in one of the games he left early like the touchdowns for alan were much higher than what we've come to expect except for that rookie year that's a good point yeah he did he did have um he did have eight touchdowns in 14 games and usually he's like a six touchdown guy rightdown guy, right? Yeah. I've kind of expected Herbert and this offense to regress a little bit. If they don't, Keenan Allen might be like Michael Thomas from 2019. Okay.

Let's go to our next simple stat for simple people. Can I say one last thing on Keenan Allen? Yeah. I'm throwing water on this. I don't like his schedule because he's got Denver twice. I think that'll be challenging for him. He's got the AFC North,

so he's going to see Baltimore and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. I think those are going to be tough matchups. He's got the NFC East, so he'll see Washington. I don't think that'll be easy for him. He's got the Patriots. He's got the Vikings. It's going to be a tough schedule for the Chargers' pass game overall this year. Now, I'm not saying that this means he's going to be a tough schedule for the Chargers pass game overall this year.

Now, I'm not saying that this means he's going to see his targets shrivel up. I don't think that's going to happen. But you better hope he gets 200 targets this year. I think he's going to have a little bit of a tougher road. It's not a terrible point. I'm just looking at his schedule from last year. It was pretty favorable. Yes, it was.

The Chargers had one of the best schedules according to the study last year. So he must have left the New Orleans game with an injury, right? That was a primetime game. He had two catches for 29 yards and a touchdown on two targets. We'll throw that one out. He had nine for 67 and a touchdown against Denver. That's not so good, though. Nine for 67 against Denver. The touchdown's good.

Five for 48 against New England, four for 40, and a touchdown at Buffalo. So you do see a three for 39 at Miami. You do see in the tougher matchups the yards were not as good. So it's an interesting point. I don't know. Okay, interesting point.

Let's go to our next one. This one is a simple stat, but it's actually, he's not a simple player to break down. But Tyler Lockett, three straight years for Lockett, he's been within 100 yards of his norm, I guess. No, that's not the right way to put it. 965 to 1,057 yards. He's been within 100 yards, basically, three straight years,

and eight to 10 touchdown catches. So 1,000 yards, give or take 50 yards, and eight to 10 touchdown catches three straight years. However, the targets keep going up and the catches keep going up, but the yards per catch keeps going down. So he's been interesting. And Dave,

you know, what do you think about that? He's, it's a simple stat on a player that in my opinion is not simple at all in breaking down. I wonder if it's just because he's seeing shorter targets. He did. This is one of the ways that the Seahawks tried to combat a getting,

taking advantage of coverage away from DK Metcalf. Cause I'm sure Metcalf was drawing some crazy coverage during the year and B they, they, they've talked about it. They've seen a ton of cover to defenses, a lot of zone defenses trying to reign them in. So it's a lot of shorter stuff going Tyler Lockett's way.

That might be what's happening here. Heath, when you look at Lockett, if you just per game, the last three seasons in 2018 and 2019, he was not even top 20. He was top 24, but he was just outside the top 20 per game. In 2020, he caught so many passes. He was 16th in non-PPR per game, but he was 12th in half PPR, 12th in full PPR. So he just had a very different season,

even though the final numbers, yards, and touchdowns were the same. The catches were way up, the yards per catch, the ADOT way down. But what I think is complicated about Lockett is that he's basically had two years in a row where for half the season, he's been top five, essentially. So there's actually a lot there complicated about Lockett is that he's basically had two years in a row where for half the season he's been top five, essentially. So there's actually a lot there with Tyler Lockett. He's kind of bizarro DJ Moore because DJ Moore did the exact opposite thing last year. He turned into a deep threat who didn't catch any passes.

And the numbers you're looking at, I assume, are all PPR. And so he was, the two years before last year, a better wide receiver to have in non-PPR than he was in PPR. Yeah, but actually very similar. I said 2018 and 19 Lockett was not a top 20 per game wide receiver, but he was top 24. That was in all three formats, half, non, and full PPR. And he was within two, three spots. I mean, he was very 21 to 24 in all three formats. That's really strange that in 2018, he had 57 catches and averaged 17 yards a catch and

scored 10 touchdowns. And he was basically the same in non PPR and PPR. 21st and non, 24th and full. That is, that's, uh, that's interesting touchdown i've got them top i've got them 12th in both formats on a per game basis last year uh i have them 16th and non 12th and half 12th and full but like i i think the and we talked about this i think it was bingrich uh drink that's become my new drink uh last year was ste Diggs. And DJ Moore, I would say the same thing about. The fact that they have shown the ability to be successful as the deep ball guy and as the short area target guy is a very good thing. The fact that they have the ability,

a lot of receivers are kind of pigeonholed into one role. It makes them easier to take away. Tyler Lockett can do just about anything. I think I'm the only guy that really, really likes Tyler Lockett going into this year. His ADP right now is 25th. Right. I think that's so interesting. ADP is 25th, and he's, like I said, each of the last two years, it's basically been tied to Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson's been great, and Russell Wilson's had two years in a row, I mean, this is oversimplifying it a little bit, but two years in a row where for half the year,

he's been basically the best fantasy quarterback. And for half the year, it's like, what the heck is going on? But when he's been great, Tyler Lockett has been great. And he's the 25th wide receiver off the board. And I don't, like, I think that the best thing to do in this scenario is just not try to overthink it. Keep it simple. And Tyler Lockett's been really, really good. I think Tyler Lockett's going to be really good.

Dave? Yeah, maybe it will be frustrating, and the points won't be spread out in a way that you like. That's what I was going to say. There's two things that people are going to think about when it comes to Lockett. And one of them is the same thing they're going to say about all the Seahawks pass catchers and maybe Russ too, is this is a team that wants to run the football.

They're scared that the pass volume won't be there for Russell Wilson. If he's not throwing a ton, then that hurts the target share for Lockett and DK Metcalf and everybody else that's up there. Go look at how many fantasy points he scored in weeks three, seven, and 17. According to my math, he scored 123 of his 260 PPR points in those three games alone. That's half, basically, of his entire 2020 production in three games. So he's a roller coaster, man. There's no question about it that inconsistency is an issue. There were only six games last year where he had at least 15 PPR points. You'd like that to be

spread out, just as you said, Heath. But this is one of those things that you're going to have to think about on draft day. And what I usually do is when I get to a point where the receivers that are left on the board aren't all that great, I will start veering toward those receivers that have a chance at some boom weeks, even if it's only three or four boom weeks over the course of the season. Lockett tops that list. It's weird for him to have 100 catches last year and to have been so inconsistent in PPR.

That's a strange profile, I'd say. Okay, Robert Woods. Let's talk about him. He's been 14th through 18th in PPR scoring four straight seasons. 17th through 19th. This is all per game, per game. Robert Woods, 14th through 18th per game in PPR, four straight seasons. 17th through 19th per game in half PPR in four straight seasons, and 14th through 19th in non-PPR in three of the last four seasons. He did have one kind of bad non-PPR year on a per game basis in the last four. But I see you guys seem to be very excited about Robert Woods. I don't know about all of you. He's wide receiver 17, which makes sense.

That's where he's finished, four straight years in ADP, right in that range. I question his upside, though, Dave, when I see that he's never finished higher than 14th per game. I answer that question with Matthew Stafford. Who has fewer seasons in his career with a passer rating above 100 than Jared Goff? Yeah, but that's passer rating.

What about passing yards? He has not had a 4,600-yard season since 2013. Jared Goff has two of them since then. Are you saying Jared Goff's better than Matthew Stafford? I'm saying that people... I don't know. I'm not saying that, but I don't know. Good.

I think that Matthew Stafford is overrated. I think he I think that Matthew Stafford is overrated. I think he's good. He's never won a playoff game. That's true. He is, you know, people think Jared Goff stinks and I think that that was definitely true last year.

Maybe true the year before. But he didn't always think. His Super Bowl year, he was really good. I think everybody's kind of crediting McVay for that. This offense has gotten worse. It's, I see, I see trends similar in the Rams offense that I saw in the Eagles offense, where they won the Superbowl and they were amazing and they took everyone by storm and they got progressively worse. And Carson Wentz got progressively worse. The same thing is happening with the Rams. I mean, they were a below-average offense last year. I just don't know that Matthew Stafford fixes all of that,

and I don't think Goff was all that bad, except for last year. He was pretty bad last year. So, I don't know. Do you think that Stafford is the thing that elevates Woods, and I'm guessing Cup, to higher upside? 100%, yes. And let me just start with this stat.

Goff's completed air yards per completion dropped from 7.0, so this is ball in the air, to a target. Seven yards in 2018, 6.1 in 2019, 4.9 yards in 2020. That ball didn't even travel five damn yards.

What is this, Eric? With Eric off there. Oh, golf. Air yards per completion. Oh, yeah, yeah. This is not Matthew Stafford. Stafford has way more air yards. You take a look at his air yards even last year.

For example, last year, 898 air yards for Robert Woods. That's gross. Yeah. Marvin Jones had 1,461 air yards. Kenny Galladay had 466 air yards in five games, almost a hundred air yards per game. And Marvin Jones had almost a hundred yards. I don't remember if he played 16 games, but he was pretty close to it. 2019, Galladay played a lot of games that year, 1,698 air yards. Marvin Jones had 1,186. But are these guys different players than Robert Woods?

You know, Robert Woods is not Katie Galladay. If you were talking about Cooper Cup, I would agree with your point. But I think Robert Woods has the ability to be more of a downfield threat. You know that the Rams like his athleticism. They give him carries on end arounds. They use him all over the field.

I don't think he's slow. Now, I don't look at him as a complete receiver and a burner like someone like Stefan Diggs, but I think he's probably their best all-around receiver, and he will absolutely benefit from running more downfield routes with Matthew Stafford, and I think we should expect that from him. I'm always finding it interesting adam the upside discussion like we've talked about um tyler lockett and dj moore and robert woods and we're discounting robert woods because of

his consistency and not showing upside and we're discounting ty Tyler Lockett because of his inconsistency. And all of his production comes in a few games. Who has more upside? DJ Moore, Tyler Lockett, or Robert Woods? I'm going to say for this upcoming year, Woods has it. I'm going to say Lockett. I would agree with Lockett just because he's given us top 12 production and he's shown us over half a season that he could be the number one wide receiver in fantasy.

So if they could just have a full season like some of their hot stretches, I would agree with that. I think most people would say DJ Moore has a lot more upside than Robert Woods, mostly just because DJ Moore is younger and hasn't had as many good years in a row as Robert Woods. I just think that he is going to be on a team that doesn't throw a lot of touchdown passes

and that's held him back each of the last two seasons. But I think it's an interesting, you do, upside is hard to predict, you know, oh, he's got more upside. It's hard to predict. You're right in that regard. But I guess Mike, I think a lot of times, and I'm not saying you're right in that regard but i guess mike i think a lot of times and i'm not saying you're doing this i think a lot of times people use upside to express a reason for liking someone more when they don't necessarily have one i just wonder you know if you're are you

passing up wide receivers who have top five potential to take ro Woods. And maybe you think he does have top five potential. He's going Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, Deontay Johnson, DJ Moore, et cetera.

The bucks. Yeah, you could definitely make the argument. I mean, the bucks have shown us top five upside. So they definitely have. I don't know that I think Amari Cooper necessarily has more upside than Robert Woods. I know he shows it to us for six games at a time every year,

like Tyler Lockett. But I want to go back because I think trying to figure out which of the Rams wide receivers is the downfield threat is important. And I don't really... I don't know. Well, we can rule out Kopp. He's been their slot guy for years. I looked at it today.

He does not have a very strong or a very deep average depth of route. And maybe all this is just a byproduct of Jared Goff being the quarterback. They realize that Goff has limitations throwing deep. I think that's half the reason why they chase Stafford. So now they've

got a quarterback who's willing to throw deep and can do it with a semblance of accuracy. And they view Tutu Atwell as a guy who can get downfield. Tutu can do it. So can Deshaun Jackson. And Deshaun, of course, Deshaun Jackson. Yeah, right. But I don't, you know, the problem is Deshaun Jackson

might not stay healthy for more than seven games. And Atwell's a rookie. We don't know how quickly he'll adapt. And trust me, Robert Woods is not the same type of receiver. He's not as fast, but he's a craftsman and he will find ways to get open. He's seen consistent target share, at least on a per-game basis, each of the last three seasons, at least eight targets per game.

You're looking for that when it comes to fantasy wide receivers. I think he's going to be steady, and I think he's going to give you good production. And I have no problem taking maybe the steady guy in Robert Woods compared to someone who's going to be a rollercoaster like Tyler Lockett. How about CD Lammer Woods? I've got Woods at a lamb. Now,

if you're telling me Amari Cooper's injury is going to keep them on the shelf for a while, boy, oh boy. I think I'd put lamb ahead of him. Oh yeah. Cooper. I don't think it is.

I don't think so either. No. By the way, the thing is they've, uh, Woods is RB is wide receiver 17 in ADP, and Lockett is wide receiver 25. So that's a pretty big difference.

Sure. Might be two rounds. And I think the reason for it is because people want the consistency. Yeah. And there's upside, too. I don't agree that Robert Woods is a top five receiver. He doesn't have that kind of upside. I think a good year for him, he's top ten.

A really good year for him would be top ten. He has finished top ten. Right, that's why it would be a really good year for him. Not per game, but never worse than 18th per game. That's huge. I'm not trying to crap on Robert Woods. The other thing is, with Jared Goff as his quarterback, he's gotten hardly any targets inside the 10-yard line. Those go to Cooper Cup.

You never know. It could be completely different with Matthew Stafford. He's had one year in his last four seasons with the Rams with more than four targets inside the 10-yard line. That's really low. So that could obviously change. He doesn't get a lot of red zone targets either. He's never had more than 12 with the Rams.

But those could be golf tendencies. All right. Those are some simple stats for simple people. We are going to take a break. When we come back, we have a lot of quarterback news, the latest on Aaron Rodgers, the latest on Deshaun Watson, plus the best and worst offensive lines heading into 2021 according to Pro Football Focus, and we will be right back.

Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. Did you know 66%

of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money.

Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Let's take a look at all the quarterback news from around the NFL.

Not going to have time for your emails today, but we will get to your Apple podcast questions. Tom Brady, a full participant in minicamp. So he's recovering from knee surgery. He played the whole year with a knee issue. Talked about that a lot. Dak Prescott will be a full participant at training camp next month. So that's great.

He had a fractured and dislocated ankle last season. But he says he's buried the injury. That's awesome. Aaron Rodgers, not at minicamp, former GM, not Packers GM, but former NFL GM, Mike Tannenbaum, predicted that Aaron Rodgers will sit out the first few weeks of the season.

I think he said he'd come back in week three or four. That's an interesting thought. But right now, he's not there. When's that ever happened? I mean, I remember there was a quarterback or there's been a holdout melvin gordon held out for like a month and then he carson palmer just retired until they traded him right right oh he might do that um all right well yeah we'll see do you hear that jordan love had like a bang up day in minicamp

that has ryan tana heldhill over Aaron Rodgers now? Yeah, I don't have that yet. But lay it out there. If training camp is underway and Aaron Rodgers isn't there, I don't know how you can feel good about drafting him ahead of Tannehill. Okay, and speaking of quarterback news, this is the new hot rumor. Deshaun Watson,

well, it's a pretty substantiated rumor, I'd say. Kareem Jackson, who's on the Broncos, said that Deshaun Watson told him he wanted to be traded to the Broncos. Ian Rappaport gave him

the not-so-fast, my friend. In what regard? I think what he said was, I don't believe that's where Deshaun Watson, quote, wants to be. It is one of the teams that he's talked to. He's being recruited by a lot of teams and players. That's interesting. I mean, this is a former teammate of Deshaun Watson's,

a current Bronco who says Deshaun Watson wanted to be traded to the Broncos. Deshaun Watson may have told that to several people. Yeah, what do you think he told Will Fuller? When Will Fuller was like, hey, where should I sign, man? Wink, wink. Yeah, all right. Okay, Deshaun Watson has been getting recruited by former teammates and countless

players across the NFL, and he remains open to several options, including the Broncos. But I don't believe Denver is quote, where he wants to be. Just one possible spot. Okay, bye. Arizona but I don't believe Denver is quote where he wants to be just one possible spot. Okay. Bye. Arizona pass rusher Chandler Jones,

linebacker, Jordan Hicks. They were not at camp. This is bigger news than Jones is a big deal by the way. Yes, he is. He's an unbelievable part of that defense. Jim Harbaugh said the team is emphasizing using the running backs in the

passing game. Oh, it's going to be huge for Michigan. John Harbaugh John Harbaugh actually said the team is emphasizing using the running backs in the passing game. And the high for a running back is

26 catches by Mark Ingram in the Lamar Jackson era. The last two seasons. And J.K. Dobbins made a really cool catch at OTAs. Cool. He leaped. All right, 26 catches. Now let's go 28 catches in 17 games over under.

For all the running backs, I'll say over. No, for Dobbins. Oh, my heart wants to say over so badly. I've got him projected for 23. I'm going to go under. I to say over so badly i've got him projected for 23 i'm gonna go under i'll say over i'm following my heart calvin ridley had minor foot surgery and curtis samuel has a groin injury and yeah i wanted to tweet something and i think it was probably inappropriate and so i just wanted to ask you adam because you're the determiner. Okay, yeah. When I saw the tweet that Calvin Ridley had minor foot surgery, I wanted to quote tweet it and say he's already filling Julio Jones' shoes. You know, Julio Jones stayed pretty damn healthy, what,

four years in a row before last year? Yeah. It wasn't a criticism of anyone. It was just like he's doing something that Julio did. Were you saying fill his shoes? Was that a foot joke? It kind of works, doesn't it? Yeah, it does.

Absolutely. I hope Calvin Ridley makes a speedy recovery and both he and Julio Jones play 17 games this year and for as long as they want to play football. And I was going to quote tweet it and say it's Kyle Pitt's 200 target season. Oh, please don't say season. Can we please bury that?

S-Z-N. I hate that. I mean, you could just start saying it all the time and then you could nerf it. By the way, if you want to hear more about Calvin Ridley, I just recorded two episodes of Fantasy Football Today in five with Jacob Gibbs. There are advanced stats

and then there are Jacob Gibbs advanced stats. We did A.J. Brown, which is publishing Thursday, Calvin Ridley, which is publishing Friday. Reasons to be excited about both of them. Reasons why Julio Jones may not have as much of an impact as you might think on A.J. Brown. So please listen to those on Fantasy Football Today in 5. Also, watch HQ.

CBS Sports HQ, it's always on. And CBS Sports HQ is the network to start your sports news day. 8 a.m. Eastern, morning buzz. That's an hour of highlights, news, and all the days need to know. And then leave it on all day, but make sure you're watching at 6 p.m. Eastern

when we break down all the night's action and release dozens of picks from the best analysts and cappers in the sports world. How do you watch HQ? Go to your Roku, your Apple TV, your Fire TV, really most connected TVs, and look for the CBS Sports app. Fire it up.

Check out HQ, the only 24-7 free sports streaming network. And now let's talk about the best offensive lines in football according to Pro Football Focus. that's going into 2021. Cleveland was the best last year and they return all five starters. So they are giving Cleveland the nod as the best offensive line in football. I'm going top five here. We can talk about as many as you want.

Dallas is six, but Cleveland is one. The Colts are two. The Patriots are three. They should have a big improvement there. The Saints are four, and the Bucs five. Cleveland, Colts, Patriots, Saints, Bucs. Heath, when you see that list,

does anything jump out at you? Like you said, the Patriots, I guess, are the one that is the surprise based on what happened last year it's just what do you do with that information like are we going to upgrade Cam Newton no he might

lose his job to Mac Jones we're going to upgrade Damian Harris well he's only going to share with four other running backs what's that you want to do your I'm honestly asking Is he, though? What's that? Is he? You want to do your thing where you act like the Patriots don't shop at running back touches? I'm honestly asking.

He had a pretty good season last year. And Sonny Michel, we heard rumors that his roster spot isn't even safe. I guess that's why they drafted Stevenson. Yeah, they did draft Stevenson. But was he a fourth, fifth round pick? I still think James White's going to be their pass catcher. Sure, sure. I'm not expecting catches from Damian Harris, but I also, I made the case that Harris was so unlucky because Cam Newton scored so many

rushing touchdowns. That's, that's not unlucky. That's Cam Newton. No, he scored 12. That is a, that is a lot for any quarterback in any season. I think he could be a good at it. That's why they had him do it. And he might lose his job. So what if they go to Mac Jones? Does that not help? Well, then that would open things up for Harris, assuming that Harris is the guy they

enlist in that role. It would open up goal line carries for Harris. It would close down rushing lanes. He wouldn't average five yards per carrier anywhere close to it if Mac Jones was a quarterback. I'm not sure if it would be like that. I think the offensive line is good enough to pop open some lanes for Harris.

Third best in football. I think it's, you know, the bottom line with the Patriots is when you look at the injuries they had on the offensive line and the talent they had, it was one of the worst situations in football last year, right? Fair to say? Yes. And their

defense didn't play to expectations. And their defense didn't play to expectations. And they almost didn't play. They were solid. They just were not competitive. Yeah. Okay, so that's your take on the Patriots. Dave, anything else? Anything you want to add here? I'm surprised the 49ers didn't crack the

top five. That's one of my favorite offensive lines this year. And they were rated very high in run blocking last year by Pro Football Focus. So I'm a little surprised that they're not there, but I can't really, I can't fault them for Cleveland at one. Indy deserves to be top five. New Orleans deserves to be top five. Tampa Bay deserves to be top five. So I guess I've got, I guess if the bone to pick is, is to say San Francisco should be there and New England shouldn't be, then that's it. Where do they have the 49ers?

We'll go down a little bit farther. They have the Cowboys 6, the Chiefs 7, Rams 8, Niners 9. It's funny that the Chiefs are that high. I mean, they should be high based on all the moves they made this offseason. Remember, they're not judging them based on last year. It's current personnel. But that's another team I think I'd put the 49ers ahead of. It's been such a roller coaster for the Chiefs

because they had a good offensive line early last year. They did. And then everybody got hurt. They had like a Steelers offensive line in the Super Bowl and then cut half of them. And now they have a good offensive line again, I guess. They have Orlando Brown at left tackle and Joe Tooney. Those are two offseason additions.

So big deal there. All right, let's take a look at the five worst offensive lines. Number 32. This is what PFF is forecasting going into the season. The New York Giants. Number 31. This is what PFF is forecasting going into the season. The New York Giants. Number 31. The Carolina Panthers. Saquon Barkley. Christian McCaffrey.

Got your work cut out for you. We know McCaffrey's so involved in the passing game, but we don't know. Barkley might have 60% of the catches that McCaffrey has. So when you see that their offensive line which was horrible last year and is rated as the worst going into the season by pff um how does that give you

pause dave on on barkley no i'm more concerned about barkley's workload and how much he'll will he actually get the type of touches that we're expecting him to get when you draft him as a top five running back you're expecting him to get 20 touches a game. And if he's not all the way back from his injury, he's still going through rehab. Do they ease him in? There's been talk that that could happen. And that, that would suck. That would suck to spend a big pick on Saquon Barkley. And then, you know, he's only playing 60% of the snaps and Devante Booker is in there playing a lot of snaps. That's not cool. Okay.

So Giants, Panthers, Dolphins are the third worst. Steelers, Jets. This is pretty similar to the end of season rankings. Giants, Panthers, Dolphins, Steelers, Jets. The Jets, we know they drafted an offensive lineman, a guard in the first round. And we like Mekhi Becton,

but we just said on a previous show that he's out of shape. Dolphins, Giants, Jets, they've all invested heavily in the last couple years in their offensive line. I think the Steelers should be last. Well, the Steelers are a big unknown

because they're replacing Villanueva and Pouncey. Those are two veterans. Mostly with guys who weren't good enough to play over them last year, right? Exactly, right. So it's a little strange what they're doing. You can make the case for them to be last, but just so many unknowns.

I'm wondering where the Texans are on this list. I'm wondering where the Raiders are. You want to talk about a team that's had upheaval on their offensive line? Texans are 20th. Okay. And where are the Raiders at? 25th. Where are the Bengals at?

Like 23rd or something. And where are the Giants at? The bottom. Yeah. I wonder if the Raiders get extra credit for tom cable maybe which would make sense like he's really good yeah um but yeah i mean it sucks for daniel jones i think that's what sabotaged his career so far yeah when i was when i was studying his remember how he had all those fumbles I think that's what sabotaged his career so far.

When I was studying his... Remember how he had all those fumbles two years ago? When I was studying that, so many of them came... He had the league of fumbles last year. Yeah, well... Just for reference. And he had the worst pass-blocking offensive line in football. Right, right, right. That offensive line let defenders through on the regular,

and man, he was shaky. He didn't like that. Oh, boy. Which is how most quarterbacks are. Most quarterbacks, when the pressure's on, they will. This wasn't my idea, everybody. I swear I had no intention of Daniel Jones talking. Okay, so those, I don't know.

I don't know if you have any final thoughts here. See, he just puts the ball on the tee for me, and I just tack away. I feel like a bad offensive line is, I'm going to say it, the only, the only thing that will hold back Najee Harris. I don't

see how he could have a bad year. I agree. And the more I've studied this offense and what they're going to do, the more I like it for Harris. And the more I dislike it for the pass catchers, but especially Juju. I want more on that. The Steelers offense and what they're going to do. Okay.

So Matt Canada is their new offensive coordinator. If you remember what he did at some of his previous stops when he was in college, he does a lot of pre-snap motion. It's all designed pre-snap motion to get the defense off balance, to try and get a read on what type of coverage they're playing, and to give the quarterback a chance to make a decision on where to go with the football. They want a quick decision with the football, and so they're going to move guys around. So the formation might open with Najee Harris in the backfield,

and then Roethlisberger might move him out, out wide. And then one of the receivers comes over, like it could be Juju who starts out wide, and he moves in motion, and he lines up where a tight end goes. And then they get an idea of whether they're against man or zone, what type of coverage. And Roethlisberger is a smart quarterback. He can make a decision on where is the best place to go with the football. And Harris is versatile enough where he can be a good pass-catching option for them if they find that he's got a favorable matchup after all the pre-snap motion. That's the thing I'm curious about is with Juju, with Deontay, with Claypool, with the tight ends, because it kind of stopped throwing to the running back so much. Is that part of the plan? Yes. If he's a 30 catch guy, then there's a lot of ways he could have a bad fantasy season.

I just think he's going to be among the league leaders in carries unless they get back to their stupid offense where they throw the ball all the time, but I don't think they will. Which they've done each of the past two years when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. No, but they still managed to give big work

to one running back. But, well, they tried. Connor couldn't stay healthy. And, I don't know. I just feel like, you know what they don't do? Okay, they don't do running back by committee. That's essentially what it is. So, that's why I think Harris is set up for They don't do running back by committee. That's essentially what it is.

That's why I think Harris is set up for success. Unless the line is terrible. They ranked 10th in running back carries last year. 10th fewest, I should say, in running back carries. Only 322 carries to their running backs last year. 60 catches to their running backs. That was also fairly low. If I had to guess, I think they're going to give more work to their run game. Obviously they want to do that. That's why they drafted Harris. And I think that takes away from the short targets that all the receivers got, who got the most of them. It was Smith Schuster,

who by the way, barely finished as a top 24 receiver in points per game in PPR, despite 97 catches and nine touchdowns. If I had to guess, I would say that they do not want to look much like last year. I don't think Juju, and that's interesting. You bring up the Juju and the short area targets. There was something that came out today that said he had made it very clear he does not want to play the slot this year. Oh, good. And that's huge news because that killed him. I assume that means Deontay's playing the slot. That was bad for him. It was really

bad for him. I like it better with any receiver other than Juju in the slot because they get a size matchup with Claypool and they get a speed matchup with Johnson. And they get size with Juju. He's a big dude, but he's not a burner. Juju and Deontay are the same speed. Do you think so?

Is that true? Is that based on their combine? Yeah, when I watch them, I feel like Deontay's a little faster. Alright, let's go to our Apple Podcast questions here. Thank you all for your Apple Podcast questions. We got a lot of them, so here we go. Call me out on that if you disagree, by the way.

BD 531. Hey, Larry, Robert, Danny, Kevin, and Dennis. Oh, it's Heath's favorite. You must love those guys. Nothing? Larry, Robert, Danny, Kevin, and Dennis? 80s. I'm blanking.

Short shorts. Oh, yeah, Celtics. Yeah, Celtics. Oh'm blanking. Short shorts. Oh, yeah. Celtics. Yeah, Celtics. Oh, Celtics. 12-team PPR league. One keeper. Dalvin Cook in the first round

or Calvin Ridley in the fourth round? 12th overall or 48th overall? Cook or Ridley? PPR. I'm going Dalvin. Same. From Yoemcat, what are your thoughts on keeping career stats in mind?

Oh, you know what? We read this one actually via email, so I will skip it because you heard that one via email. From rmitchum1, I recently inherited a team in a 12-team Superflex League where I have the number three pick. Do I go with a quarterback or Najee Harris at 103? I am

leaning towards Harris. It is Superflex. He has Prescott and Rodgers. He has Hill, Edwards, Zlair, Dobbins. Who's... Oh, Taysom Hill, that must be. Okay. Yeah, what do you think well he listed both hills he

listed hill after rogers then he listed tyreek hill yeah but i'm assuming he's listing them by position so i'm gonna go prescott rogers hill it must mean tasem hill anyway edward ziller dobbins he could use some running backs here so what would you do? I'd go Harris. Yeah. I mean, I'd go Harris as long as Lawrence and Fields go one-two. Okay. I wouldn't take Harris over Lawrence in Super Flicks.

Okay. From Kitten Lindley, 12-team Dynasty League. I have the first, the third, and the fourth overall picks. Wow. Nice.

I think that's nice. That probably means you bombed last year. I have Akers, Metcalf, DJ Moore, Judy, Ayuk,

and Claypool. I need a second running back badly. Now, obviously, he can draft one. He has picks one, three, and four. I was offered

DeAndre Swift for the fourth overall pick and Jerry Judy and a future first. Steep. Yeah. I love DeAndre Swift, I think, more than anybody. and Jerry Judy and a future first steep. Yeah. I love, I've loved Deandre Swift,

I think more than anybody. And I don't, I don't believe I would do that. Um, but you can get a second run. Like I would still take, um, first,

I still take chase first, but then you're going to get Harris or ETN at but then you're going to get harris or etn at three and you're going to get like either pits or the other running back at four right but he needs a second running back badly i would lock up harris at one and then you know you're going to get either pits or chase at three that's what i would do i would lock up that running back first and what if it were swift and a second round pick next year is that enough to even the scales for you not really yeah let me yeah you never know it just depends on where that pick's going to be. If it's 22nd, no.

If it's 14th, yeah. If I was to get a second next year and maybe a receiver that's worse than Judy, I would take that. Oh, now we're throwing another player in. Yeah, but I mean, we're not talking about a good player. It's just someone for the bench. Okay.

Someone who maybe has some potential, not the same type of potential as Judy. I need to correct an error. Deontay Johnson was one hundredth of a second faster than Juju. Four, five, three, four, five, four. All right, this is from ThatKingCole. I have the number one pick in an eight-team startup dynasty. 2QB IDP.

Should I hold on to that number one pick and grab Mahomes, McCaffrey, or Kyler, or trade back to fourth or fifth, and if I do trade back, what else should I get back or send away? It's a startup dynasty, not a rookie draft. It's two quarterbacks. It's IDP, whatever.

Would you stay at number one, or would you try to trade back to fourth or fifth in an eight-team league, and what would you try to get back if you did trade? I'd just take Mahomes. I think if the deal is so obvious that you wouldn't need to email us to ask us our opinion you should do it like if someone's going to give you

fourth overall and a third rounder for your first overall and a ninth rounder something like that like it's a no brainer you want to collect those earlier picks if you can get them in a smaller and a ninth rounder, something like that. It's a no-brainer. You want to collect those earlier picks if you can get them in a smaller league

so you can have more superstars on your team. But if it's, hey, I'll trade you my draft slot for your draft slot, it doesn't work. It doesn't work for me. I want something to sweeten the pot if I'm getting out of the first slot. This is from Core2186.

PPR, if bonuses were to be given, first slot. This is from Core2186. PPR, if bonuses were to be given, what would you say is an acceptable number of yards for passing, rushing, and receiving as well as points for these bonuses? I've got three thresholds because I'm complicated. 100 yards rushing, 100 yards receiving, 300 yards

passing, small bonus. Couple of points. That's it. If it gets to like 150 yards rushing or receiving or 450 yards passing, double the bonus. Make it four or five points. If the player were to set a single game NFL record, then that should be worth like 20 points. But only in those specific cases.

Um, I don't really like bonuses, but if you're going to do them, I strongly prefer a rushing plus receiving bonus as opposed to a rushing or receiving bonus. And you can set it a little bit higher if you want to. Um, but like it really penalizes very very good backs like austin eckler who might have a lot of games with 70 of one and 70 of the other

well tell him the man up and get some more carries um i i don't want to tell him that so i i i would probably the 300 300 passing is the traditional thing to do, but if you wanted to do like that and then maybe 110 rushing plus receiving. Okay. From Clint, a lot has been made of the Burrow-Chase connection in college. Not to the same degree,

but what do you think about the Hertz-Devante-Smith connection? Could we see similar upside out of the gate? And I'll throw another one in there, the Waddle-Tua connection. Sure. Yeah, that's pretty cool. Hurts and Smith, I believe they had two years together

at Alabama. I don't know how much they actually played together. I'm sure they practiced together a bunch. In 2018, Jalen Hurts threw 70 passes. I don't know how many of those went to Devante Smith, but 65.

I don't think so because Henry Ruggs Jalen Waddle Irv Smith world and Jerry Judy were also on that team. Smith's back. I don't know why Alabama always wins. Yeah, it's interesting. I think it helps as far as familiarity goes,

where one could say to the other, hey, remember how we used to do this back at Alabama? Now we're just doing it here. Oh, okay, cool, gotcha, I remember that. It's a lot different when there's two guys that are on the field setting NCAA records together for 15 games however many games it was in 2019 they had damian harris josh jacobs and nage harris at running back yep they had tua jalen hertz and mac jones at quarterback and they had those five wide receivers yeah that's got to be close to the

most nfl starting skill position players on the same roster but then you have to look at your depth chart made the nfl you have to look at lsu too uh the year before it can't be as many but they didn't have that many quarterbacks right no way no uh I can tell you that the Hurricanes had five running backs. Oh, I knew you were going there. Five NFL running backs on one team. Right. Not many NFL quarterbacks though. That was

2000 or 2001. That's all I can tell you though. One of them played one of them was Najee Davenport. The other one was a fullback, I guess. Okay. Well, we are out of here. Got to talk about Daniel Jones.

Got to talk about the Hurricanes. It's a good show. One of your favorites. What do you mean? What was Darius Slayton's catchable target rate? That would be a comparable one to Judy. Let's see what we got. Oh, we're not done yet.

Okay. Thanks for the Apple Podcast questions, everybody. Very, very much appreciated. Oh, we're not done yet. Okay. Thanks for the Apple Podcast questions, everybody. Very, very much appreciated. I think we're going to have four shows for you next week. We might even have a surprise mailbag for you

later this week. Any guesses, Heath? Percentage of catchable targets for Darius Slayton. I'm going to set the number at 62. Okay. Adam, is it over

or under 62? It is under. It is under. It is under. 59.57%. Makes sense. Okay, we're out of here. See you later, everybody. If we don't talk to you with a bonus mailbag, have a great weekend. If we do talk to you, have a great Thursday. See ya.