Fantasy Football Today - Sophomore TEs: Kyle Pitts in Round 2!? Pat Freiermuth a Breakout? (03/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 1, 2022

Of course our discussion of sophomore TEs starts with Kyle Pitts. Let's make the case for him to be the first TE drafted (4:00)! Heath says he would like to draft Pitts in Round 4, but is that too lat...e (9:30)? ... Pat Freiermuth was a TD machine, but can he expand his game and be a 2022 breakout (18:00)? And are there any other TEs from this class that matter (25:30)? ... News and notes (32:25) on Amari Cooper, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and more ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com and your Apple Podcast questions Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:21 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz, Mike Gasicki all had 110 to 112 targets in 2021. Kyle Pitts turned those targets into more than 240 more yards than Ertz and Gasicki. But of course, only one touchdown for Pitts. It's the Kyle Pitts Show. It is our look at the 2021 rookies,
Starting point is 00:01:50 2022 sophomore tight ends. And there will be others that we talk about, but we'll spend obviously a lot of time on Kyle Pitts. Also, let me start with this. Heath, Dave, Dave, I'll let you go first. I think you'll have a good answer for this. If you could participate in one NFL combine drill, as that is now underway,
Starting point is 00:02:13 what would it be? One drill that I would be good at, or just that I would want to participate in? You'd want to participate. The interviews. Okay. Heath, how about you? I'm looking at them now. It looks like we have the 40-yard dash, the bench press, the vertical jump, the broad jump, the three-cone drill, the 20-yard and 60-yard shuttle. I think my best event would probably be the broad jump. Okay. Like the bench press, I'm pretty sure they do 225 pounds as many times as you can. I'm not really that confident that I can do 225 pounds once. Same. I don't know for sure.
Starting point is 00:02:50 There was a time when I could. There was a time when I could. And I don't really want to run that far. How many total reps of 225 amongst our crew? Like, I think you could probably, if you were pumped up, Heath, I think you could do one. I think you could probably if you were pumped up heath i think you could do one i think jamie is part of our crew because pete seems like a big no he's not part of our crew no i think we might need him for this once in a while well no he pete doesn't want to come on the show he's not part of the crew oh he does too he always says he doesn't and then he's we can't get
Starting point is 00:03:21 him to show we haven't had him on in a calendar year so in a full year so so no yet he's on every single sunday during the football yeah schrager what do you think 225 8 to 10 probably 5 to 7 look at you under pressure yeah i'll go 8 to 9 i think it depends is it life is this what type of pressure is it like cameras and media but no real threat to your life pressure? Because I think that might make you do worse. But if it was a car on top of you pressure, then you could probably do better. Well, how about no spotter? That's life-threatening pressure.
Starting point is 00:03:56 You would definitely do worse with no spotter because you would not go down the last time because you wouldn't be sure if you could get it back up. That would be the first time for me. i would do one rep with no spotter all right so i think we're looking somewhere in five to ten range for the fantasy football today crew this is really exciting ben yes thank you ben um all right we got uh football season in the rear view but we've got march madness quickly approaching and we're at the point where a ton of other sports are going on, and we have all this Combine coverage as well. So please download the CBS Sports app. It's not just the best scoring app for your phone. It's also where you get breaking news alerts. You get stories by us. You get standing schedules, team pages, all the sportsy digital stuff you're used to. And if a game is airing on CBS, you can watch it right there on the app. It's very easy. Just
Starting point is 00:04:43 download it, re-download it if it's got that little cloud logo next to it on your phone. And you know we love those five-star ratings, so please leave a five-star rating on the app and for the podcast as well. Also, if you miss Jamie, he is at the Combine doing a lot of CBS Sports HQ stuff. So make sure you watch CBS Sports HQ. You can learn about the prospects. You can learn about, you know, you'll hear from NFL GMs and stuff like that. So it's great stuff. CBS Sports HQ all week crushing the NFL combine. Let's get to the sophomore tight ends. And I'll just, let's go Kyle Pitts.
Starting point is 00:05:17 Why not Kyle Pitts as your number one overall tight end, Heath? He is the best prospect we've ever seen at the position. He had the best rookie season we've ever seen at the position. Let's just make him number one. What do you say? Well, because the elite tier of tight ends still exists, and he's not proven quite that he belongs in that. The touchdown thing we should talk about
Starting point is 00:05:40 and talk about how he's going to have regression, and he should score at least five touchdowns next year, and I think he's more likely to score 10 than he is to score one. Um, but it's not as if he was number one at anything else. He wasn't best in targets. He wasn't best in receptions. I don't think he was top three in yards per game. And we don't have a real reason to believe there's going to be a significant drop-off for the guys that were better than him. So he still has to ascend to a different level to be number one. And I think there's a double-sided risk with the Calvin Ridley situation. It's possible that Calvin Ridley comes back and is the target hog we expected.
Starting point is 00:06:19 And Pitts doesn't see quite as many targets this year. It's also possible that Calvin Ridley leaves. Kyle Pitts stays the number one target for Matt Ryan in a bad offense with a quarterback who has never had success getting the ball to his number one target in the end zone. Jeez. What's wrong with you today? I was just trying to.
Starting point is 00:06:39 You asked me a specifically negative question. And then you want to know why I was negative. I just set you up for that. Dave, who scores more touchdowns next year, catches more touchdowns? George Kittle, who had six, which I want to say is a career high and the most ever in the Kyle Shanahan era for a 49er. Or, well, I don't know how many Debo had, but nobody had more than five before that.
Starting point is 00:07:05 Or Kyle Pitts. Who scores more, Kittle or Pitts? I'd be inclined to say Pitts if I couldn't say push. I think it could be a tie where they're both in that five to six range. But I can't deny Heath's statement that it's probably a little more likely that Pitts has a ton of touchdowns than he has one touchdown again.
Starting point is 00:07:24 It just seems so weird, especially considering the fact that he really didn't have that many opportunities to score. We talked a little bit on FFT and Five about how he was getting a lot of targets downfield. But when it came to getting end zone targets, he only had six. He had a 20% target share inside the 10 that tied for seventh among tight ends. The six end zone targets was tied for 15th among tight ends. There was something going on, which it harkens back to the Julio days in Atlanta
Starting point is 00:07:57 where they almost used Pitts more of a decoy or they just called plays where Matt Ryan's read wasn't to Pitts. Mention this on FFT and five. There were multiple times during the season where pits is wide open, like literally no one within four yards of him in any direction in the end zone. And Matt Ryan's looking the other way. That's got to get fixed. They've got to get him more involved in the red zone, no matter whether or not Calvin Ridley is there. And it would make sense that assuming he takes good steps this offseason and he doesn't come to training camp loafing it that he could actually get that type of opportunity in the red zone inside the 10
Starting point is 00:08:36 because he's already got a lot of things working for him including a 19.9 percent target share on the falcons that percentage rate was third best among tight ends. You can probably guess who the other two tight ends are who had a higher target share than Kyle Pitts. Do you think any of that red zone stuff, green zone, what I actually find really interesting, Dave, is that he had only two more green zone targets, green zone being inside the 10-yard line,
Starting point is 00:09:03 than Calvin Ridley. So Ridley was actually that guy when he was there. But do you think any of that actually matters, or should we just look at the fact that he had 1,026 yards and is the prospect that we thought he was? Just the overall success that he had and not nitpicking about the tights. Does it actually matter, that green zone stuff, that end zone stuff? Did it matter for Julio?
Starting point is 00:09:30 Yeah. I mean, look, he was still able to be a top five wide receiver. Barely, but yeah, it did a little bit. Like, that's what kept him from being... How many times was Julio the number one receiver in fantasy? I don't think... In fantasy points per game. Oh, I don't think he ever finished.
Starting point is 00:09:46 I don't think he ever finished one receiver one. He was always in the top eight-ish, I'm sure, if not top five-ish, five-ish Finkel. But I don't think he was ever number one. And it's because of those touchdowns. There's an obvious correlation. I wouldn't have to explain this to a third grader. There's an obvious correlation between scoring touchdowns
Starting point is 00:10:08 and being good in fantasy football, especially for pass catchers. So if that number went up, even just a little bit, I think we can rely on him getting good target volume, getting a great dose of catches, especially for a tight end or someone who's eligible to play a tight end. You know how I feel about calling Pitts a tight end. And then the yardage
Starting point is 00:10:28 comes with that. And he's still an explosive player, particularly for a pass-catching tight end. So, where are you comfortable taking him, Heath? Kyle Pitts? For everybody else
Starting point is 00:10:44 did last year? Round four? No way. did last year? Round four? No way. Really? What do you mean? That's where he's comfortable. I don't have a problem with him. Oh my gosh.
Starting point is 00:10:53 You're not getting any Kyle Pitts. So how many tight ends are going to go in the first three rounds? Oh, he's going to be one of the four or five. He's going to be a second round pick. I really feel that way. A second round pick? Yeah. It's going to be a second round pick. I really feel that way. If not second round pick. Yeah. And it's not that top 30.
Starting point is 00:11:07 So you, you think it's basically going to be Andrews Kelsey pits. Yes. No, I think it's going to be Kelsey Andrews pits. Okay. And I think, I think I would,
Starting point is 00:11:17 we'll see what the Ravens say, you know what they do, but I would probably draft a wide receiver and then we'll convince ourselves the wide receiver is going to take targets away from Mark andrews no it's not that it's it's a matter of how how committed they're going to be to their run game uh and how much they're you know that's a huge going to go back to their roots it wouldn't shock me at all if kyle pitts has a better year than well wouldn't surprise me at all he's number one but it wouldn't surprise me i think it's moves ahead of andrews i think andrews kelsey kittle, Waller, and Pitts could all reasonably be tight end one next year without the other guys having a major injury.
Starting point is 00:11:53 Any of those five guys could be tight end one. I'm going to have a hard time taking Pitts ahead of Waller, though. Or Kittle, really. Okay, Dave, you? Oh, I'm taking Pitts ahead of kittle and waller i'm there especially in ppr it it's easy for me because i do expect him to have more than one touchdown i think he can fall into that five six touchdown range i don't think that's asking a lot no so if he's already getting good yardage and he's i can't imagine his target share is going to fall off a cliff after his rookie year,
Starting point is 00:12:26 then I think he's got the floor to be a top three fantasy tight end. And honestly, I can see a scenario where Lamar's back in Baltimore. The run game is healthy in Baltimore. They go back to being a run-heavy offense. That includes Lamar taking a lot of runs. And we even saw it last year. Andrews was very good with Lamar Jackson. He went haywire without Lamar Jackson.
Starting point is 00:12:49 It's the weirdest thing in the world. Do the Ravens realize, okay, we've got to make this thing all about Mark Andrews and Jackson to Andrews? We've seen that connection play well. Or do they try and spread it around while they still limit how much Lamar Jackson throws compared to what they did last year with and without Lamar Jackson at quarterback. I know Atlanta has a lot of work to do to improve their run game, their past game that they were definitely a pass heavy unit. And we saw Kyle Pitts benefit from it.
Starting point is 00:13:16 I could see a situation where the Falcons, even if they bring back Ridley, have give Pitts a clearer path to being the number two tight end in fantasy than Andrews. And I know it sounds blasphemous right now because Andrews is coming off of an amazing year, but it's possible. I don't have it ranked that way yet. Let's see what happens this off season. If I have to spend another off season defending Mark Andrews,
Starting point is 00:13:38 I'm going to pull the rest of my hair out. You don't have to, you look so young today, by the way. Thank you. I do think, and maybe we'll draft four or five of them there, but even most years in the past, the number three tight end has not been worth a third-round pick.
Starting point is 00:13:58 That's probably fair. And so I have a hard time, and maybe Pitts will just go way ahead of Waller, but I have a hard time believing And maybe Pitts will just go way ahead of Waller. But I have a hard time believing that we're going to take Waller and Kittle and Pitts all in round three after taking Andrews and Kelsey in round two. We're going to have five tight ends in the first 30 picks? I think if Trey Lance is the quarterback, you might see Kittle out of that mix.
Starting point is 00:14:21 I'm still not convinced that Trey Lance is going to be the quarterback. That's also fair to say. But if you had to put a percentage on it, what's the percentage that Lance is your quarterback in San Francisco Week 1? As of right now. 60? I'd go a little higher, but not much higher. I agree that there's a chance that they keep Garoppolo.
Starting point is 00:14:41 It's making a little bit of a mess out there. You can't argue with what Garoppolo... i guess you could because he wasn't great but that's helped them get deep in the playoffs that was the other thing and something you like the way you approach that adam and i've meant to do this when jamie was on because he does that a lot and i think it's just a difference like when i say i'm going to draft kyle pitts in the fourth round that doesn't mean i think kyle pitts adp is going to Pitts in the fourth round, that doesn't mean I think Kyle Pitts ADP is going to be in the fourth round. Yeah. Right.
Starting point is 00:15:07 No, I, yeah. So like maybe he will go on the second round. Maybe I'll have to say Kyle Pitts is a bust again. Well, I got a poll up right now, 67 votes.
Starting point is 00:15:17 So I just did it while we were talking. And right now round four is, is the winner so far. Well, it's leading. When will you draft Kyle Pitts, 12-team PPR? Round two, three, four, five or later. And
Starting point is 00:15:30 round two is 7.7%. Round three, 29%. Round four, 37%. Round five or later, 26%. And this is my prediction. If we did drafts right now, I think he'd be mostly a round three pick. I feel like he's going to be one of these players,
Starting point is 00:15:45 like he was this past year, that has the helium, as we say in the industry. I think he's going to be a draft riser. I think people are going to be looking for excuses to fall in love with Kyle Pitts and take him earlier than they ever thought. And it's going to take one big preseason game
Starting point is 00:16:02 or some report or something like that. I just feel like he's going to be one of the guys that is a big riser and ends up late second round. It's based really on nothing, except it did happen last year. That's just kind of my gut feeling on that. Go ahead, Dave. He does have an ADP of 34.8 in very, very early NFC drafts since February 1st. George Kittle is at 39, and Waller's at 47.
Starting point is 00:16:30 So he is tied in three right now, pretty clear. Oh, I love that value for Waller. We've done two mock drafts, mock redrafts. The first one was full PPR. Pitts went 37th overall. That's technically round four. I think that's right in where I would take him, maybe a smidge before in PPR. I think I'm ranked 36th overall. That's technically round four. I think that's right in where I would take him. Maybe a smidge before in PPR.
Starting point is 00:16:47 I think I'm ranked 36th overall in PPR. He went 21st overall in half PPR, in our half PPR mock. So there's, we say this about a handful of players every year. There's going to be a guy in every draft. That's just gaga for him. And they're going to take them sooner than everybody else will.
Starting point is 00:17:08 Reminds me a little bit of Fernando Tatis, who had this amazing rookie year and then was a second round. And I guess I would say Acuna, too. They both, I think, were second round picks as sophomores. They were better, I'd say, than Pitts, because Pitts only had the one touchdown. But that was the last time you were able to get Acuna or Tatis, maybe ever if baseball never comes back.
Starting point is 00:17:33 But the last time you were able to get them outside of round one, that's how good they were. Now, the counter would be somebody like Gleyber Torres or Vladimir Guerrero who were totally overdrafted in their second seasons. But I think you kind of get the point. All right, update on the poll. Round four is running away with it. 41% round five or later.
Starting point is 00:17:51 I mean, that just shocks me that people are going to wait until round five to take Kyle Pitts. It is in second place at 28.2%, and we'll keep you updated on that. When would people draft Kyle Pitts? And I think, like, in fairness to those people, Kyle Pitts was drafted in round four last year and didn't deliver that type of value.
Starting point is 00:18:08 Why would I draft him earlier? Now we know why, because touchdown regression, but I can understand at least where they're coming from. Like I just bought this whole battle over not drafting Kyle Pitts in the first four rounds. And then he didn't live up to that ADP. And now you want me to drive Kyle Pitts in the first four rounds. Yeah, but did you think he was going to have
Starting point is 00:18:27 1,000 yards? No. Right, yeah. I'm not saying I feel that way. I'm saying I understand it. I'd like to address this question here from Bidge. Does Adam always roll out of bed to record these, or does he just forget to fix his hair? I haven't fixed... I never fix my hair. But no, I've been up for a while. I should take more pride in my hair, I guess. I was... I'm with you today.
Starting point is 00:18:52 I did not fix my hair today either. You look good. I like your short. You got no beard. You got short hair. You look... It's totally different. New guy.
Starting point is 00:19:00 All right. So that's our Kyle Pitts discussion. Let's go to Pat Fryermuth. Second question for today. This one won't take as long. Why not Pat Fryermuth as a breakout? He had a very nice rookie season. Dave, why shouldn't we be showing Pat Fryermuth more love?
Starting point is 00:19:15 And Heath, if you wouldn't mind looking up his ADP, that would be very helpful too. The thing that scares me about Fryermuth is that he may have been a byproduct of Smith-Schuster getting hurt and Ben Roethlisberger not being able to throw or being willing to throw 15 plus yards downfield a lot. To wit, he was 17th among tight ends in targets per game. He was a touchdown dependent tight end who, frankly, did a great job of
Starting point is 00:19:43 catching touchdowns. And I'm sure the Steel job of catching touchdowns and i'm sure the steelers are going to try and implement that again no matter who their quarterback is but if they've got a quarterback that's got a scintilla of arm strength they're that guy's going to look a little deeper than fry muth more often than not and it just it just i think it wedges fry muth into a lot of weeks where he's going to be two to four catches for 30 to 50 yards, and you've got to hope that he comes down with a touchdown. I like the guy. I think he's got a chance to be better than that, but I look at that offense in general, and I think to myself that he's not going to be a contender to be a top two in targets in that offense i you remember adam you might not but dave will um like in the 80s when they had um records um and like the real heavy metal bands were putting out records and if you allegedly if you played them and maybe it was in the 90s too
Starting point is 00:20:37 if you played them in reverse uh subliminal messaging that was um really really bad stuff i feel like if we did that with the kyle pitts section where we were explaining why kyle pitts is going to be better than he was last year it would explain why pat fryer was not a breakout candidate this year yeah obviously he was he was the exact opposite pitts was awesome in every way but did not score touchdowns pat fryer muth was darren fells or j Cook, but he scored a bunch of touchdowns. But as a rookie, I mean, it's still, you know, most rookie tight ends. I think 500 yards isn't so bad. Rob Gronkowski had 546 yards as a rookie. Yes. Dave referenced how he was afraid he might
Starting point is 00:21:22 average 30 yards a game. He averaged 31.1 yards per game last year and his longest reception of the season was 24 yards. Uh, it's just entirely, and it's the same thing we talked about with Robert Tunyon last year. Only there was a little more reason to think that Robert Tunyon playing with the quarterback who has the second highest touchdown rate ever, might continue to score a bunch of touchdowns. As of right now,
Starting point is 00:21:49 it looks like Fryer-Moose is going to have Mason Rudolph or Mitchell Trubisky or a rookie quarterback. I don't have a lot of optimism for him. He's currently tied in nine, being picked early in round nine, just ahead of Dawson Knox, Zach Ertz, Noah Fant, Mike Gasicki.
Starting point is 00:22:09 I'm fine with him in that range, but I'm not going to take the first guy in that range. He was a second round pick though. I don't know if that matters to you. That's the difference I think between him and Tunyon. Tunyon kind of came out of nowhere. Friar Muth had, look, I'm's the difference, I think, between him and Tanyan. Tanyan kind of came out of nowhere. Friar Muth had – look, I'm making the case, right? I'm not saying –
Starting point is 00:22:30 Right, but that's true. No one besides maybe Gronk, and he's not Gronk, is sustaining that type of touchdown percentage. The thing that would make you think maybe he can keep something like that up would be an elite ability or elite production in some other area, and he didn't have any of it. What's the path to him being second on the Steelers and targets? Chase Claypool getting hurt and Najee Harris getting hurt. Yeah, so second on it, that's what I always used to be a top five guy, right? So that's probably not going to happen with Fryermuth.
Starting point is 00:23:05 But I think if you want to just make the case for him, it's just that he had a good rookie season. And if you just use basic statistics for rookie tight ends to predict breakouts, I think it's going to be pretty hard to find breakouts. You know, George Kittle had a very quiet rookie year, and then he had a very good second year. So just the fact that he was involved he was like i said a second round pick so he's got some pedigree he's got great
Starting point is 00:23:30 hands he makes sense for them to target him in the end zone i probably needs a quarterback up i mean i'm not going to get excited about anybody if mason rudolph's the quarterback but just dave the fact that he was productive and we just don't usually see that from rookie tight ends you know that's it's something there i i totally understand he can't have this touchdown rate but maybe he could just become a more involved better overall player it's possible and if he does that then that would earn him more targets and then he'd get more than the 4.9375 targets per game that he averaged last year i think i think it would take chase claypool's role getting sacked and Najee Harris kind of not getting more than three or four targets per game for Friar Muth to be more than just a good red
Starting point is 00:24:14 zone option for the Steelers. And I think that's a strength that is in his favor. I'm pretty sure the Steelers coaching staff will have plays drawn up for Fer Muth in that regard as a red zone threat. He's in the ballpark of Gronk, not saying that he's as good as Gronk. No, very few people are, but he's going to get looks down in the red zone. And I,
Starting point is 00:24:37 I really wish I had the number of how he ranked in terms of targets inside the 10 yard line among tight ends, because I bet that his, I that his rate was pretty impressive, given what the Steelers' offense wound up being, and that they realized that this was somebody whose big body can get open a little bit, and you can throw him open by throwing it a foot over his head, knowing that the defensive backs and linebackers that he's going up against aren't going to be able to cover it.
Starting point is 00:25:04 And I think there's a hope that he could have like maybe without the injuries, a Hunter Henry type career. Um, but even Henry, you look at him, like he scored eight touchdowns as a rookie on 53 targets, even more ridiculous rate than fire moves. But the next year he had four on 62 then he had five
Starting point is 00:25:27 on 76 then he had four on 93 then last year he had another ridiculously good touchdown rate i think the reason maybe a better answer to why pat fryer muth is not a breakout candidate is because even if he improves in his catches and his yards, his touchdown rate is almost certainly going to be negatively bring that his breakout cases scoring the same number of fantasy points he did in the second half of last year. Oh, but is Hunter Henry a good comp for him? Hunter Henry was really never,
Starting point is 00:25:57 never turned into an elite tight end, but he was always someone worth drafting, usually worth rostering. It was chargers days. I mean, Hunter Henry has never had more than 652 yards in his season. He gets hurt a lot, though. Right?
Starting point is 00:26:14 I mean, that was kind of... But you know what I'm saying? I mean, does that kind of feel like low-end starter, but does that kind of feel like a comparison? I think it's a perfect comp for him. Forget about the total games he played. His yards per game, 32, 41, 54, 43, 35.
Starting point is 00:26:29 That was Henry? He's got one season with more than 44 yards per game, Hunter Henry. Wow, I could azer stat that. He had a lot of games where he left early, apparently. Okay, here's my third question about tight ends. How are you guys doing today?
Starting point is 00:26:47 How are you feeling? What's going on? Any plans? Anyone else? Anyone else in this class? Brevin Jordan? I have a little hope for Brevin Jordan. He is in my top 24 tight ends.
Starting point is 00:27:10 I wrote about this yesterday in the opportunity index that came out. I put together every year the number of targets that each team has available due to players leaving. There are seven teams that have at least 96 targets available at tight end. Last year, there were two. The tight end market is going to be pretty crazy, depending on how many of these guys get franchised. Like maybe they franchise Schultz and they franchise Kosicki and it's not quite as crazy,
Starting point is 00:27:33 but the tight end market in free agency is going to be pretty crazy. I thought Tommy Trimble or Brevin Jordan, both when I started doing my projections, had an opportunity. The Panthers already gave Ian Thomas a three-year deal. That kind of makes me a little bit less excited about Tommy Trimble. If the Texans didn't go make a big splash at tight end
Starting point is 00:27:53 and just added a secondary tight end, they'll add somebody. Because I think Brevin Jordan's their only tight end on their roster right now. So they're going to add somebody. But if they don't go get one of the top six or seven names, then I think Jordan has a chance, especially if Davis Mills stays at the quarterback. He seemed to like his tight ends of maybe having a borderline top 12 season.
Starting point is 00:28:11 Brevin Jordan actually had a higher target per route run rate in goal-to-go plays last year than Friermuth did. It was higher than Waller, too. And remember, it's not overall plays. It's plays that the player actually ran a route on and saw a target on. That's something that you can build off of for, for Brevin Jordan. And I agree with you, Heath. I think the Texans are definitely going to add another tight end. I wonder if it's going to be more of a blocking tight end and somebody that
Starting point is 00:28:38 can supplement that offensive line rather than somebody like Brevin Jordan, who I think he's way more of a receiver than he is a blocker. And so I'd be worried about Jordan's upside if they added another big-time wide receiver or even added a good pass-catching running back. I don't want to see those things happen if I'm banking on Brevin Jordan. And Tremble's kind of a fun athlete, and he had some very few flashes last year, but he had him.
Starting point is 00:29:07 I just worry that there's too many mouths to feed in that offense. That trembles just not going to get the type of target volume. That's going to make him exciting for our purposes. The thing that McAdoo could help him because the past two years, they've not really targeted tight ends at a very high rate. I believe McAdoo's time in the Giants, Evan Ingram, he may have led the Giants in targets the last year that he was there. Maybe there's more tight end targets available in that offense now,
Starting point is 00:29:37 but the Ian Thomas thing pretty much means for me, Tommy Trimble can be a dynasty stash if you have that much room, but we're going to have to wait for him to score a touchdown or two before anybody adds them. Random aside. Can you name the two tight ends that had the highest target per route run rate among tight ends that had at least 20 snaps played in goal to go situations?
Starting point is 00:29:59 Complicated. Think of inside the 10. Think of inside the 10 who got targeted the most on their routes inside the 10? These are not rookies. Hunter Henry. At the highest rate. Hunter Henry is not on the list, but his teammate was number one. Janu.
Starting point is 00:30:15 Janu was one. The other one is a free agent who apparently is going to get double-digit millions from his team, even though he's been a bust since he left the University of he's been a bust. David Njoku. He left the University of Miami. That's right, David Njoku. So I don't know if that target per route stat is a reliable stat, because here are two guys that had huge opportunities. How many routes did they run?
Starting point is 00:30:35 32 for Janu, 39 for Njoku, and I know those numbers seem low, but unless you're a big-time tight end, that's high. Yeah, and it's inside the 10-yard line. That is a lot. Well, end, that's high. Yeah. And it's inside the 10 yard line. That is, that is a lot. it's gold to go. So yeah,
Starting point is 00:30:51 that would include like a first and gold from the 15, something like that. All right. I'm going to finish this segment with just some Pat Fryer, youth ors. Cause I forgot to do that. Pat Fryer, youth or Tyler Higbee. I've got Fryer,
Starting point is 00:31:04 youth as of now Pat Friar Muth or Dawson Knox Knox he was somebody and I need to look at it again but he was somebody who came out much lower in my projections than I expected I've actually got Friar Muth ahead of Knox
Starting point is 00:31:19 but I didn't have Knox in my top 15 I wonder if this is an offseason where the Bills don't try and do too much with their receiving core. And they, you know, Emmanuel Sanders is going to go. And I don't know what the deal is with Cole Beasley.
Starting point is 00:31:32 But I wonder if they open the door for Knox to do more in that offense than just be a touchdown magnet. And last one, Pat Frymuth or Noah Fant? Noah Fant. As of the way things are currently constructed, I will
Starting point is 00:31:48 say Fryermuth, but any sort of significant upgraded quarterback for the Broncos would probably change that for me. I don't have complete confidence they're going to get that done. A couple guys that I would take Irv Smith over Fryermuth. Oh, okay.
Starting point is 00:32:04 We're going to take a break on fantasy football today. When we come back, I have a startling confession, something I'm very ashamed of I'll tell you about. And we'll do some news and notes and read your emails and your Apple podcast questions. Are you excited to hear this, Heath? I'm getting the... I'm going to Twitter to search for the thread.
Starting point is 00:32:21 So... I don't think it's going to fit that criteria, but we'll be right back. Find out what I'm ashamed of after this. What a tease. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days.
Starting point is 00:32:48 And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Welcome back. All right, you want to do news and notes first? You want to find out what Adam adam is ashamed of today i think you should include what you're ashamed of in the news and notes just to make sure everybody's paying attention it'll be the last news item i just
Starting point is 00:33:12 wrote ashamed in the notes dallas executive vice president stephen jones did not commit to having amari cooper on the roster reaction dave the reaction is that he he is owed a lot of money that they can take off the books this offseason i can look it up if you give me one second and maybe they want to put that money toward gallup maybe they want to sign somebody who's going to be in free agency maybe that's their way of telling amari cooper you need to restructure your deal if you want to stay in dallas we'll see kind of the same thing that's going on with Jarvis Landry in Cleveland right now, except he's the one making the noise, right? Yeah, because he knows they're not going to pay him.
Starting point is 00:33:52 Well, I would be shocked if he's still there. The Cowboys save $16 million against the cap if they cut slash trade Amari Cooper. And it's even more than that if he's designated a June 1st cut. And it really could open things up for Michael Gallup because we had a report last week that Gallup could be back. Cooper now could be gone. And, you know, we'll see what the rest of the receiving unit looks like.
Starting point is 00:34:16 MVS Marquez Valdez. Scantling will probably be too expensive for the Packers. That's according to the athletic. And then obviously the Packers have, if they bring back Rogers, they bring back Adams. They're going to the Athletic. And then, obviously, the Packers have... If they bring back Rodgers, they bring back Adams. They're going to be pretty strapped.
Starting point is 00:34:29 What? Who is this suitor for MVS? It's someone that can pay him more than the Packers can... The Lions looking for a Brashad Perryman replacement? That's what I thought, too.
Starting point is 00:34:43 That's what it ends up being. I bet you're right. But even if he gets, and I know this sounds crazy, but in the world of the NFL, it's not. Even if he gets $8 million a year, that might be more than the Packers
Starting point is 00:34:54 are willing to pay him, and I think that's the point. Who would pay him that? A team that's desperate for a wide receiver that can stretch defense. Maybe the Raiders? $5 million a year, maybe.
Starting point is 00:35:04 Sounds like the Raiders. He'll be overpaid. Jacksonville is likely to offer DJ Chark a short-term contract, according to the Florida Times-Union. Which guy would you rather have on your team? Chark or Valdez-Scanlon? Chark, for sure. I don't think either one of them
Starting point is 00:35:19 are probably going to be good this year, but I have some hope that Chark might be. Chark can run deep. We've seen that before. Hopefully, he's recovered from the injury. It was a broken ankle, but I have some hope that Chark might be. Chark can run deep. We've seen that before. Hopefully, he's recovered from the injury. It was a broken ankle, if I recall. If he's back and running and doing fine, he's two
Starting point is 00:35:33 years younger than Valdez Scantling. I will just say, though, if Jacksonville's plan to fix their receiving core is DJ Chark's going to be back and healthy, then I'm going to be far less optimistic about Trevor Lawrence turning things around this year. You want Laquan Treadwell back in Jacksonville.
Starting point is 00:35:50 I get it, I get it, I get it. Yeah, Jamal Agnew. Bring Tavon Austin back, he's set. Okay, so time for my shame. Yes. I've been doing this for a couple months now. This is the first time I had to resort to cheating, but I could not get the wordle this morning and I had to cheat to get the wordle. What do you mean? Well, you know,
Starting point is 00:36:15 you have some guesses. You're running out of guesses. How do you know you couldn't get it? Because he was down to his last guess. I was down to my last two guesses, and I just couldn't figure it out. You had two guesses left when you cheated. Yeah, I Googled to see if this was a word, and it wasn't. But the word that ended up being the solution showed up as a correction. I don't think that today's answer was really in the spirit of Wordle, to be quite honest with you. Did you guys do it? Are you at Wordle?
Starting point is 00:36:48 I did it. I got it in four. And I got it right. And I didn't know the word. You didn't know the word. Yeah. So that's the thing. I only had one letter in its proper place.
Starting point is 00:36:59 Oh. I had all of the letters. I had all of the letters, but I only had the last letter in its proper place. So I knew the word after I saw it on Google, but I'm ashamed of myself for cheating. There's a friend of the show who I'm not going to name, but he posted on Twitter that he couldn't get the word. He did not cheat, though. He tried. In six guesses, he could not get the word for today. So you had got it every other time before today. Yeah, I haven't been doing it for that long, but yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:29 That's impressive. I got caulk, which I know people were pissed about. I got, yeah, I got them all. Oh, vivid. Vivid was hard. Vivid was very hard because it only had three letters. Yeah, two Vs, two Is. That's pretty dirty.
Starting point is 00:37:42 What's your first, just your first guess. What's your first wordle word? i change it up all the time i don't have one specific one but though i've heard people go with piano because you've got three vowels i go with store yeah i've gone with stone before because it's got three good consonants remember you're talking to a wheel of fortune veteran that's true yeah so i know you know the the i know all the best consonants so i i try and get some of those taken right out of the way with my first guess i go with raise raise um but i really like raises a great one more than wordle which you like what? Wordle. What's that? Q-U-O-R-D-L-E. It's four Wordles at once.
Starting point is 00:38:30 Get out of here. And every time it guesses, every time you guess, it will give you the letters you got right on each one, and you have to solve all four of them in like eight or nine tries. Oh my goodness. It's the best thing ever.
Starting point is 00:38:41 I have to go. All right, we're out of here. I got to go download Quartle. We got some emails and Apple podcast questions. You know, another thing I like about Wordle, it's a little frustrating, but the fact that they only give you one a day, I think makes us a more productive society.
Starting point is 00:38:54 Every game, every online game should limit you to... There's also Dortle. So there's two, you do two words at the same time. So I've got like four of these I'm playing now. There's Purtle, which is the NBA version where you have to try to guess the NBA player. Um, it's hurdle. Nerdle is the math version.
Starting point is 00:39:11 Math one. Maybe you put in a math equation and, and figure out what the equation and the answer is within six guesses. Really? Are you making this up? This is real. I play all five. I gave up on that one.
Starting point is 00:39:21 The very first time I was restricting you to one per one per day doesn't really help when there's five games. All right, here are your emails. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. This is from Sergio. 10-team full PPR. Where's he from? Dave, I'm sorry. Sergio is from Duluth, Minnesota.
Starting point is 00:39:38 All right, this is not a redraft league. Only incoming rookies each year. I traded all my picks within the last two seasons, and I won a championship don't have any picks until 2025 my team is top two i have uh josh allen kelsey dk henry camara chubb zeke singletary patterson should i try to sell i mean i don't know if he could do this but should i try to sell Zeke right now for a Monroe St. Brown and some picks. Would you do that? Sure. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:40:10 This roster scares me to death, but you won a championship, and so it was all worth it. But you have Kelsey, Henry, Kamara, Chubb Elliot almost all of them almost certainly are going to be worth less next year than they are right now um and a couple of them might be worth nothing next year so I yes I would I would advise doing that I don't know if I quite have Zeke and ARSB the same on the trade chart, but they are not very far apart at all, so you can get anything Plus the picks, though.
Starting point is 00:40:52 Second round pick. I have them almost exactly the same, so if you can get anything in addition to ARSB, I would be happy with that trade. Alright, next email is from Rob. He says, Dear Stan, Kyle, Eric, and Kenny, Heath, do you know who Stan, Kyle, Eric, and Kenny are? Those are from South Park.
Starting point is 00:41:09 That's right. Let's say Rob is from South Park, Colorado. Let me preface this by saying I'm the Cam Akers manager in my league, and here's an offer that was sent to me in my PPR Dynasty League. I give up Miles Sanders. Sorry, I give up Miles Sanders. I get Daryl Henderson and pick 2.9. So he has acres.
Starting point is 00:41:28 Is it worth giving up Sanders to get Henderson and pick 2.9? No, I'd rather have Sanders. I think that's really, really close. I've got Sanders slightly higher, but I don't think it's an unfair deal. There's just no guarantee that Daryl Henderson is going to be number two on the depth chart. There's no guarantee that Miles Sanders
Starting point is 00:41:52 is going to be number one on the depth chart. There's a better chance of Sanders being the one than there is of Henderson being the two. They could both be. Oh, I don't think that's. I don't agree with that. Well, you think they're going to go get a running back? I'm just saying I don't agree that there's a better chance
Starting point is 00:42:08 of Sanders being the one than Henderson being the two. All right. This is from Jake in Kansas City. He was one of our biggest baseball listeners. Fantastic listener. Fantastic city. Hopefully today will be a good day for Jake and all of us baseball fans.
Starting point is 00:42:26 This is my first Dynasty offseason. I'm a little early on this question, but I'm starting to do my draft prep because I have the number two, number five, and number 12 picks this year, plus a couple of later picks. We do our rookie draft two weeks after the NFL draft, but then
Starting point is 00:42:42 we have just three days to get back to legal roster size before rosters lock until August. So what is your strategy when cutting players? If you draft a wide receiver, do you cut a wide receiver? Do you target certain players to cut beforehand no matter what? It is a 2QB league. I have guys like Heineke, Jordan Love, and Gardner
Starting point is 00:42:58 Minshew. Yeah, so how would you tell Jake to go about cutting players? I don't How would you tell Jake to go about cutting players? I'd much rather cut backup receivers than backup running backs. Yes. I'd much rather cut backup tight ends than backup running backs. I probably wouldn't. I might try to see if I could get anything for Love, Heineke, and or Minshew.
Starting point is 00:43:28 Can you move up two spots in a round during the draft to get somebody you want and offload one of those guys? Because I really don't think you need to be holding all three of those either. Okay. The first thing you know to do is you know how many roster spots everybody's allowed to have you're going to figure out the number of players that you've got to cut after you do your
Starting point is 00:43:49 draft i don't think it should be i don't think it should be you draft a receiver you cut a receiver i think it should be more like all right i gotta cut five of these guys once i get my five rookie picks on my roster who are the five most likely that i'm ready to dump when you've've got that list of those five, that's when you start trying to make a trade like Heath's talking about. Go to the guy that's got Jalen Hurts and say, would you like to have the collection of Philadelphia Eagles quarterbacks? Do it right now while Gardner Minshew had a good game as a starter in place of Jalen Hurts last year.
Starting point is 00:44:21 Maybe he will trade his third round pick for your fourth round pick in Gardner Minshew. Anybody that's on that list of guys that you're going to cut, you just try and sell and get whatever you can for. Let them make the move where they've got to cut somebody off their team and you get something in return for a player that you were just going to cut anyway. Worst comes to worst, you don't make a trade. You've got your list of the guys you're going to cut and you cut them. Let's do some Apple Podcast
Starting point is 00:44:45 questions. We appreciate all the reviews. This is from... I was actually looking at the reviews the other day. They were very encouraging. Thank you. I appreciate it, everybody. This is from... Dave, you threw me off. WebZ618. You mean
Starting point is 00:45:02 WebZ618? No. WebZ... Yeah. Superflex Dynasty trade offer. 618. You mean Webb's 618? No. Webb's, yeah. Superflex Dynasty trade offer. I give up Trevor Lawrence and Elijah Moore. I get his Joe Burrow and Chuba Hubbard. Is that Chuba
Starting point is 00:45:18 or is that Chubb? But he says Chuba. It's Chuba. There's an A there. Yeah, but it just seems like such a different trade. Lawrence and Moore for Burrow and Chuba. I'd be more interested if it were Chubb. Yes, I would do that. I'm not doing that trade. I think there's a much bigger difference between Moore and Chuba
Starting point is 00:45:35 than Burrow and Lawrence. But if Lawrence flames out this year, then you probably won't feel that way any longer. From Big Meter, how do you feel about Baylor running back treston ebner what are your early thoughts on him i have some early thoughts because i was just watching him as you were talking about the previous email he is slow so i know i'm not going to like him well let's see what he runs in the 40 i don't think this is and i don't have specific thoughts about him, but my
Starting point is 00:46:05 general feeling right now is there are basically three, maybe four running backs that I might be excited about. I don't think this is a very deep running back class. We weren't excited about last year's, and last year's ended up being pretty solid. I'm pretty excited about Brees Hall. And I love Walker.
Starting point is 00:46:24 I'm pretty excited about Spiller. I think Walker will be good. Yeah, but I'm pretty excited about Brees Hall. And I love Walker. I'm pretty excited about Spiller. I think Walker will be good. Yeah, I'm just watching some Ebner right now. I know nothing about him, but I think he's big and slow. I thought that about Ramondre Stevenson, and he ended up having a pretty nice rookie year. When he was in college, did he have the hair out of the back of his helmet? I don't remember.
Starting point is 00:46:43 Because it might have gotten faster when that happened. Okay. Next question is from Pat Fan Heath. I took an orphan team last year, tore it down, and successfully tanked into the first pick in this year's rookie draft. I feel I'm fighting the narrative
Starting point is 00:46:58 to take a QB at first overall in a super flex dynasty league. Most of the analysis I hear pushes taking quarterback purely based on their ability to hold value. I feel a wide receiver running back would be better for me he has dac he has watson he has trey lance and zach wilson no you don't need no you're not taking the quarterback no uh taylor there's no quarterback in this rookie class that's worth that 101 his team could be terrific man he's got taylor acres, Akers, Dobbins, Etienne, and Dillon.
Starting point is 00:47:27 He has Chase, Waddle, Ayuk, Elijah Moore, Bateman. Yeah, your team could be great. He has Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas is one of his worst players right now. Kyle Pitts at tight end. How did you get the first pick? Anyway. You probably benched those guys.
Starting point is 00:47:42 Well, Dak was the only quarterback he had that really played last year um oh that's true and then we probably had all this season um his team didn't play last year that's true that's true yeah yeah that your team sucked in fact kyle pitts wasn't even that good you know so um no i i'm it's gonna be really difficult like i do think there's it's unquestionable if malik willis lands in pittsburgh or someplace that we think he's going to be really difficult. I do think it's unquestionable if Malik Willis lands in Pittsburgh or someplace that we think he's going to start pretty soon, that as a first-round pick embraces the type of quarterback he is. He's going to be the 1.01 in Superflex leagues for sure. So maybe you see if you could trade back to three
Starting point is 00:48:22 and get something else in addition. I don't know. I don't agree. I don't agree. I think we're a ways from that. Sure. In the, in the specific scenario that you laid out, he could be because the,
Starting point is 00:48:35 the upside's intoxicating for any quarterback who, who can run. And he's certainly that, but it's really key to me that he goes early. You mean, because that'll convince people that he, that he's great and that, or that he's potentially great. It's really key to me that he goes early. You mean because that'll convince people that he's great or that he's potentially great? No, because I think if somebody takes...
Starting point is 00:48:52 The only thing that really keeps me excited about Trey Lance is the fact that the 49ers traded up to go get him at number three. Yeah. Yeah, but, but he would, would he have been pick 1.1? Well, there was a quarterback taken a one and a quarterback. They were not.
Starting point is 00:49:14 If they were not, if Trey Lance had been the first quarterback taken last year. Yeah. I think he for sure would have been. Yeah. I don't know. Cause he had chasing pits. You don't have them this year,
Starting point is 00:49:23 obviously. Right. But yeah them this year, obviously. Right. But, yeah, this team, I don't think, has taken a quarterback first. I'm probably taking... As of right now, I'm probably taking Reese Holt. Okay. Well, we'll know more after the combine.
Starting point is 00:49:41 Hopefully. So make sure you watch CBS Sports HQ this week again to get all your combine info and updates and to see Jamie because we miss him. For Dave and Heath, I'm Adam, and I'm going to do better on tomorrow's Wordle. That's a promise to all the listeners. Talk to you on Thursday on Fantasy Football TV.

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