Fantasy Football Today - Sophomore WRs! Puka Nacua, JSN, Tank Dell and More (02/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 29, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts The 2023 rookie wide receiver class was terrific, even if the first round picks were underwhelming. We'll give you some fun stats (1:40) about the class including how rare Puka Nacua's accomplishments were and then do some Fill in the Blank (7:10) with sleepers, breakouts and busts. We talk about Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Demario Douglas, Jayden Reed and many more ... Revisiting the four first round picks of 2023 (20:15), how do we rank JSN, Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnston and Jordan Addison? Then we catch you up on the latest news and notes (30:50) ... More on Nacua (35:00) including what could go wrong for him in 2024. Then we finish with the leftovers (40:00) including Tank Dell,  Michael Wilson, Marvin Mims, Tre Tucker and more. Oh and Jamey tells us all about his lecture in an economics class! ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Can you believe this? I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Oh yeah, sophomore wide receivers. We get a lot of breakouts at this position in this season. Welcome, everybody. February 29th. Holy cow. Adam Azer here with Dave Richard and Professor Jamie Eisenberg is back. Welcome back, Professor.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. All right. You're so smart. Can you tell me anything that happens once every four years other than today, other than February 29th? Every four years.

There's a presidential election. Hey, there you go. That's one. Olympics. Oh, I forgot about Olympics. Yep. Summer Olympics. Well, winter too.

Winter's every four. Winter's every four or every two? It's winter's every four years, summer's every four years, but they stagger them so they're two years apart. Gotcha. All right.

So winter and summer Olympics. Every four years, but they stagger them, so they're two years apart. Gotcha. All right. So winter and summer Olympics. Every four years, you shower. I shower. That's four weeks, not four years. And the only other thing we came up with was that first round or non-first round picks in the NFL draft become free agents. But anyway, welcome to a very special edition, a February 29th edition of Fantasy Football Today. Last year was really a great year for rookie wide receivers, and Pukunikua was the 20th wide receiver selected in the draft. He is the first wide receiver to lead all rookies in fantasy points and not be a first or second round pick in the last 10 years, I believe. I'm just looking at this now because I know I had this in my NFL draft notes, but it's almost always one of the first six wide receivers selected,

and it's almost always a first or a second round pick who's the best rookie wide receiver. Puka Nakua destroyed that last year. We'll do some fill in the blank. That's just the last 10 years, or that's just what you have the last 10 years? No, I think the last guy who finished as the number one fantasy rookie

that wasn't a first, second, or third round pick was Victor Cruz in PPR in 2011 and T.Y. Hilton in non-PPR in 2012. But he was a third round pick, but he was the number 13 wide receiver drafted. It's been, I think, nine straight years before Puka that the best rookie wide receiver

was one of the first six drafted. Beckham, Cooper. Okay, that makes sense. Yeah. Beckham, Cooper, Michael Thomas, Juju, Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Garrett Wilson. So that's usually what it is. Puka was a big-time exception to the rule. Gee, I wonder who it'll be this year. But it's going to be a really exciting uh rookie class anyway but anyway in terms of the sophomores dave looks pretty good huh great and and you knew it coming into the year i mean forget

about puka we didn't expect puka to do what he did and he just landed in the exact right situation but four wide receivers all the varying talents were taken back to back to back to back in the first round. I would say that two of them were good. Two of them were pretty terrible and there's still room for optimism for all four of them to do at least as well as they did in 2023. And there are plenty of other receivers that were taken after round one that have a chance to at least have a serviceable role if not become the number one wide receiver for their teams that would obviously include puka jamie what are your thoughts overall um and what i think is so interesting is that

you know the first round you had those four guys go consecutively jsn i don't remember the order jsn flowers johnston addison um yeah we're optimistic about three of those guys but then He had JSN, I don't remember the order, JSN, Flowers, Johnston, Addison. Yeah, we're optimistic about three of those guys, but then you got really the guys later, Puka, obviously Tank Dell, depth later in the class, kind of an interesting sophomore class. Well, I think it's more fascinating the guys later in the class, clearly as you alluded to with Puka, Tank Dell clearly was a star when he was healthy.

You saw what Rashi Rice was able to do, clearly not just a first-round pick, but a relatively high draft pick. Jaden Reed and what he was able to accomplish in not being as highly touted as those first four guys. And then we had some guys that had some, you know, interesting moments like Josh Downs, DeMario Douglas, you know, those guys had some, some good games, you know, not necessarily good stretches of games, but good games and certainly had a lot of optimism. So there, there's a lot to like about this group going into next season, you know, and, and hopefully,

you know, the, the two guys like Dave said that weren't as good, because I think you could say Addison and Flowers were successful for rookie wide receivers. They just weren't dominant like some of these other guys. But the hope would be is that, you know, JSN gets the opportunity we're waiting for. And Quentin Johnson is going to have a big opportunity, most likely, if they move on from Mike Williams or even Williams not coming back at 100 percent, that he can step up and be a big time contributor as well. So this this class could be something this class could be a group that we're talking about for many years to come. I hope so. All right. So I want to talk about just the first time every year that I get to talk about this stat, the 900-yard stat. And rookies who gain 900 yards, they usually have great careers, honestly. I mean, you know, or at least good careers. So now going into 2012, not including last year's classes,

we don't know how they're going to finish, obviously, in their second season. We've had 30 wide receivers in the last 20 years, from 2003 to 2022, 30 rookie wide receivers reached 900 yards. 20 of them scored more fantasy points in their second season than they did in their first season. And among the 10 that didn't, it's not like they were bust necessarily. Michael Thomas had a great sophomore season.

He just had a really great rookie season. Jamar chase missed five games. So he's on that list too. There are only a few players that got 900 yards that are just outright busts for their career. Guys like Michael Clayton, Eddie Royal, Mike Williams of Tampa Bay.

Then you've got the next group would be guys maybe like Juju Smith-Schuster. He had a 1,400-yard season, but he's been kind of a bust, I guess. Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf. But basically, you-yard season, but he's been kind of a bust, I guess. Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf. But basically, you get 900 yards, it's almost like the worst-case scenario is DK Metcalf,

Terry McLaurin, T. Higgins, something like that. And three guys did it last year, Pukunukuwa, Rasheed Rice, and Jordan Addison. Okay, I don't have much to say about that, so let's go to some fill-in-the-blank. Fill-in-the-blank, Pukunua should be a top blank pick in 2024 drafts. One. You're taking him first overall?

First overall? Yes. Love him that much. Fifteen. He should be top. Top fifteen. Ten. Okay, I think he went 10th in the draft we reviewed yesterday.

Somewhere around there, 10th or 11th. Yeah, in that range. Okay, the second sophomore wide receiver off the board should be blank. Rashi Rice. Yeah, that would be the one right now. Yeah, right. So go on about right now. And by the way, is it the same?

So I think it's either going to be Rice or Tank Dell for most people. It's probably going be Rice. But what if it's a half PPR league or a non PPR league? Does that change? And then think in terms of free agency in the draft, clearly the Chiefs, they've already made one move to move on from MBS. You know, they're going to go hopefully be aggressive at that position for the sake of Patrick Mahomes. But for the sake of Rashi Rice, it's going to be a detriment if they bring in, let's say, a Mike Evans or if they're able to somehow pry away one of the franchise tagged receivers in a trade because Michael Pittael pitman's going to get tagged based on what chris ballard said yesterday uh so you know you could be looking at an evans gabriel davis marquise brown type of free agent signing calvin ridley free and signing that would impact rice clearly whatever you think of those guys and then if they're aggressive in the draft as well so you know you could be looking at as many as three receivers coming into the chiefs if if uh if things go probably the way that they would like it to. And one of those, if not two of those, could be some prominent guys.

Rasheed Rice, in his last six games of the season, he was the number six wide receiver in half PPR, number four in full PPR per game. He was 12th in half PPR and 8th in full PPR. He was on pace for 159 targets in those last six games. Then in the postseason, and this was kind of a concern of mine, thinking about Rasheed Rice.

Well, he did a lot of that damage in those last six games, and Kelsey was not Kelsey. But what about in the playoffs? Kelsey was very much Travis Kelsey, and Rice was still on pace for 111 catches, 1,114 yards, only four touchdowns on 140 targets. That's still amazing for a rookie in the postseason. Okay, let's do a sleeper, a breakout, and a bust among the second-year wide receivers.

My favorite sleeper is blank, Dave. I think my favorite sleeper is going to end up being Jalen Hyatt, who is profiling as certainly a deep threat for the Giants, but also somebody who could develop and be a little bit more than that. I was impressed with some of his flashes, certainly liked him in college at Tennessee, even though he didn't run a full route tree, but he should have an off season where he works on his routes a little bit more, maybe puts on a little bit of weight.

I know we talk about that and say that that's a bad thing more so for running back some wide receivers, but I think that Jalen Hyatt does have potential. And when I look at him, I think about him as a sleeper, somebody that I'm taking late anyway. So if the first three weeks of the season come and he doesn't do anything, Daniel Jones isn't connecting with him,

then forget it. I'm out. But I do like the idea of getting him on my bench. All right. Jalen Hyatt. Jamie, who's your favorite sleeper? Demario Douglas. I think you see the Patriots' even core is pretty abysmal right now. And he's got the chance to be hopefully their second guy.

They're going to go out and get somebody, whether again in the draft or free agency. And they should because they're going to get a young quarterback and hopefully build around that quarterback. But I think Douglas is going to be locked into one of their top three roles, hopefully their slot role. And I could see him being one of these guys that we hyped up a little bit at times during his rookie campaign and having a sophomore breakout.

All right. How about speaking of breakouts then? My favorite breakout sophomore receiver is blank. Me? Sure, whoever. Smith and Jigba. That's the obvious one. I mean, you know, you just want to see him get the opportunity that we've been waiting for and, you know, taking advantage of it because I think he will. You know, we saw at times last year when Metcalf was banged up or Lockett was banged up, you know, he stepped up in a bigger role. Certainly when he was playing on the outside, had a chance to be a very successful fantasy option. And I think that's

going to be the case this year. Tyler Lockett's 31. Would make sense if they move on from him, or at least put him in a reduced role if he does come back. But obviously, JSN, you know, when you ask who's the second receiver, second sophomore receiver that could be drafted, would not be surprised if the Chiefs add players and the JSN hype puts him ahead of Tank Dell, potentially. He's got that much upside. Alright, I'll go to Dave in a second, but let's talk about, okay, so Jackson Smith and

Jigba, pretty underwhelming rookie season. He played 17 games and he had 628 yards. He had four touchdowns. Jamie mentioned playing on the outside. He was really confined to the slot, almost two-thirds of his snaps, maybe more like 60% of his snaps. And I noticed, I think I said this last week or whenever,

the three games with his highest percentage of snaps on the outside were his three highest yardage games of the season. So, yes, I'd love to see Tyler Lockett gone. I'd love to see JSN playing on the outside. But what if he's not? What if it's the same? What if it's just rinse repeat? You know, can he really break out? Can he really have a, even a thousand yards, which would be a pretty big jump from 628.

I don't think he, he'll be a breakout candidate if, if Tyler Lockett's there, but he still could have a thousand yard season and be more productive, you know, just because I think that they will start to put him in those situations to be more successful and give him more targets and give him more opportunities. I mean, it just makes sense. Again, you have a 31 year old guy who is not part of their future. This is their future. You know, their, their future for the next three to five years is DK Metcalf and JSN leading the receiving core. And so, you know, unless they're going to tank in 2024 to, uh, you know, get draft picks and find the next quarterback of the future, if they're going to be a competitive team get draft picks and find the next quarterback of the future.

If they're going to be a competitive team and Geno Smith stays healthy, then I think JSN takes a step forward in some way, shape, or form. But to be a breakout, it's got to be with Tyler Lockett most likely going. Dave, who's your favorite breakout at the position? Can we call Jaden Reed a breakout? Can he do better than what he did this past season? He averaged over 13 PPR points last year, 13.6 his last eight games, 17.4 PPR points. I'd like to see him become the number one target for Jordan Love in Green Bay.

I think he's the most versatile of the wide receivers that they have. I think he can do anything they ask him to do. Is he as fast as Christian Watson? No. Is he as tall as Christian Watson? No. Can he be healthier than Christian Watson? No. Is he as tall as Christian Watson? No. Can he be healthier than Christian Watson? Pretty much everybody can. And Romeo Dobbs has been good. He stepped up in the playoffs. That game against Dallas was amazing. But I'd like to see Jaden

Reid become that main target and that number one guy. And I wonder if he takes the kind of step forward that Jamie talked about for JSN. I mean, he kind of already did last year, but he could do it again and take that next step and finish the year as a top 12 wide receiver. All right. I want to give me a moment here. I just look up the stats for Jaden Reed with, well, you could just put him in my next category. Oh, you're going to call him a bust. Yeah. He was awful when everybody was healthy. That's the problem. Right. Yeah. I mean, I just looked at the the playoff games he had like four targets in the playoffs or something there's maybe seven i think he was every time christian watson was out seven targets oh he did every time christian watson was

out he was a superstar yeah but at the same time i mean great great advanced metrics uh or good at least i think we're going to talk about him and be on the box score good season watson gets hurt all the time, right? It's like the 49ers. It's like, well, when they're all healthy, but they're never all healthy. Yeah, I agree with what Dave said. He definitely has the most upside of the group.

But unfortunately, if you're just looking at what he accomplished last season, everything for him was perfect when somebody was missing. mostly Watson. When Watson came back, his numbers went in the tank. Okay. All right, and Dave, who's a bust for you?

Hold on. So Jaden Reed will be a bust. That's what Jamie's saying. When would you draft him? What do you think his value should be? I would draft him as early as round seven. Okay. Dave? Yeah, I'd love to get him done. Right, but I don't

think he necessarily could. No, he went higher than JSN in our first two PPR mocks, and JSN... But that won't be the case at the 6-7 turn. No, that won't be the case if Lockett's gone, right? Dave, who will be a bust for you?

It's the same kind of argument that Jamie made for Jaden Reed, but I'll do it for Jordan Addison. In the first five games of this year, Cousins was there. Justin Jefferson was there. He averaged 12.4 PPR points per game. When Cousins was on the field and there was no Justin Jefferson, it's a small sample. It's three games, 21.5 PPR points per game. That's what I think fantasy managers, they remember those games when Jefferson wasn't around Addison worked as the number one guy. He was awesome. But if Jefferson's there, if cousins is back, I'm a little worried about that target crunch hitting Addison and him maybe being a little too overdrafted. Okay. Yeah. I think that benefits Addison

hopefully tremendously is, is TJ Hawkinson not being there for the start of the season. And so that should be a huge advantage depending on how long Hawkinson is out. I think Addison is going to have another solid sophomore campaign. I don't think people are drafting him based on those three games. I think they're drafting him based on what he did with cousins and when he did when Jefferson's there. I think if anybody's looking at those three games are making a huge mistake. Right. But then we're looking at the five games with cousins and Jefferson, and he had some good moments, no question,

but still 12.4 PPR points. Is that around five wide receiver? Well, it's around five wide receiver projecting him to get better in his sophomore season. That's what anybody should be doing. I think we can do that for all these guys. Well,

yeah, I mean, they are good. They, a lot of them are going to get better. Remember he's one of the 900 yard guys. And in those five games to Jordan Addison, we're talking about here in those five games, Yeah, I mean, a lot of them are going to get better. Remember, he's one of the 900-yard guys. And in those five games, Jordan Addison we're talking about here,

in those five games, TJ Hawkinson had, let's see, 39 targets. So I would be a little worried about Addison being like a top 15. Let's compare him to Tee Higgins, right? Because you're hoping for Jefferson as Jamar Chase and Addison as T. Higgins, a really solid number two. I'd be worried about it if Hawkinson were healthy. In fact, I think it would be pretty hard to accomplish because usually when you see two top 15 wide receivers on the same team, there is not a third guy

taking a lot of targets. That's why I was a little worried about Devontae Smith. Do you think people are drafting Addison as a top 15 receiver? No, but I think you're, no, not at all. But I think you're hoping that he gets there, right? You're drafting him, hoping that he can be, like, why should, why should I not draft Jordan Addison thinking, oh, he could be the next Devontae Smith. He could be the next Tee Higgins.

Yeah, I mean, you should, I think you want to, you want to hope for that. But if you're drafting him that way, then you're making a mistake. No, absolutely not. I'm just talking about his upside. And I do think that's his upside, but I think Hawkins to hope for that, but if you're drafting him that way, then you're making a mistake. No, absolutely not. I'm just talking about his upside, and I do think that's his upside. But I think Hawkinson would limit it, but I'm not expecting a ton from Hawkinson, especially early in the year.

So I think if Cousins comes back and it's Jefferson, Addison, and either a Hawkinson on IR for a bit or coming off ACL, I think Addison could be great. I'm optimistic about it. No, you don't draft him as a top 15 guy, but you should at least be thinking,

does he have that upside? And to me, the answer is, how much is TJ Hawkinson playing? How good is he? How many targets is he getting, basically? And also, you have to ask that about Cousins. Do you understand what I'm saying? Yeah, I'd love the setup for him if Cousins is healthy.

Right. All right. We got to take a break. And I think we got to bring up Zay Flowers in this discussion, too. Does he have bus potential? Because he's going in the fourth round in our drafts right now. And he did most of his best work when Mark Andrews was injured. So we'll talk about that after this quick break on Fantasy Football today.

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Should have skipped it. Skip to the good part and get groceries, meals, and more delivered right to your door on Skip. So if we look at the top four guys in the NFL draft last year, I know who's going to be fourth for you. It's going to be Quentin Johnston. How would you rank the other three right now? That would be JSN, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison.

Flowers, Addison, JSN right now. And none of them top 24. Flowers is the receiver. But Flowers, Addison, JSN, that's what you said? Mm-hmm. All right, yeah. So what do you think about Flowers?

Kind of a similar situation to Jaden Reed. He really took off as soon as Mark Andrews got hurt. Your thoughts, Dave? It's the exact same thing. Because when Andrews got hurt. Your thoughts, Dave? It's the exact same thing. Because when Andrews got hurt, look at it. There's four games that Flowers had where he had at least 19 PPR points. And we're throwing out week 18 because he didn't play, and Lamar didn't play in that game.

I think that he's an incredible talent. It's just a matter of how much volume will this passing offense have and how many targets is Mark Andrews going to continue to take away. And then for whatever it's worth, when we talked about on our last show, the whole Rashad Bateman thing and how John Harbaugh is talking up Rashad Bateman now as being a big part of that offense, that might mean three or four targets per game. I love the talent. I just don't want to overrate it because he finished last season super strong. It was with Mark Andrews on the shelf. Jamie, any concerns about Zay Flowers? You have him in your top 24, you said?

Yeah, I mean, there's obviously reason to be a little concerned. Rashad Bateman's definitely not one of them, though. I don't care what John Harbaugh says about that. I think that's the next evolution of just continuing to buy into Lamar Jackson and buy into Todd Motkin is that you see the development of one of their top stars and that's what Zay Flowers is. And so Andrews is going to continue to be productive, but I don't

think this is the same Mark Andrews that we're counting on to continue to be the only focal point of the passing game like we've seen seen in Greg Roman system, for example. So I think flowers can continue to grow and continue to get better and continue to blossom. And I think he's got the upside to be an absolute superstar. Now here's one other thing that we should bring up in those games that Andrew's missed. Isaiah likely had a pretty significant role.

It's a great point. Likely had at least eight PPR points in every single game. He had three games with at least 18 PPR points in those three games with at least 18 PPR points. Zay had at least 19 in two of them. And he was a dud in one of them. So even though there was no Andrews, here's another tight end in this Baltimore offense.

He didn't, I don't think he got the same amount of targets. I can tell you that because I did. I don't think you did either. No, I have those numbers. And let me tell you before you go on, right.

In those last seven games of the season. And I believe that includes the post season for, uh, yeah, for Zay flowers. That's, that was his best stretch. Uh,

likely was really good. He was on pace for 12 touchdowns, but only 78 targets. Mark Andrews was on pace for 111 targets in his healthy games. Okay. Perfect. Yeah, but I mean, likely was great, but he wasn't nearly as involved as Mark Andrews.

And Flowers had a 19% target per outrun rate with Andrews on the field, 22% target per outrun rate with Andrews off the field. His target share went from 22.3% with Andrews on the field to 25.4% with him off the field. And both of those target share numbers are good. Like I'd be happy with a low end number two, high end number three wide receiver. Let's call him a high end number three wide receiver who's getting over a 20% target share. But with one of those tight ends being on the field, being Andrews, it really wasn't amazing. The fantasy production wasn't great.

Here's a gross scenario to think about. If you've got, say, Flowers, say, on a dynasty team, what if Andrews and Likely end up having regular playing time together and this offense morphs into a 12 personnel type of system as they move forward because they can easily mix and match and create problems for defenses with likely with Andrews essentially will likely be one of their top five skill position players going into next year. Here's a realistic possibility that the answer to that is, yeah, he will be. And that could hurt. It's just another mouth to feed in that offense. However big it is, that could take away from flowers. Well, I don't, to be honest, I don't think that matters because it's, if it's not a second tight end, it's a third receiver. It's a second receiver. No, it's a third receiver.

Well, who are the first two receivers? Well, Bateman and likely might be better than Bateman. Oh, I'm not disagreeing with you, but I'm saying is whatever personnel groupings that they do, if it's not two tight ends, it'll be three receivers on the field. So that third receiver or second receiver, if you want to put Bateman in the third role, we'll still be probably getting as much targets as Isaiah likely does. I think the difference is in this two tight end set, you've got a receiving tight end, unlike, you know, like a Dawson or something, but this is also, yeah, but after what they're,

after what Harbaugh was saying this week about buffing up their offensive line, I don't think they're going to go with two non-blocking tight end type of options. And likely, certainly, Cable Blocker. Not that Andrews isn't. And let's not forget, the Ravens had the third fewest pass attempts in football last year. So that's what really jumps out

to me, and I always talk about how it's so hard to be a top 12 wide receiver on a team that's what really jumps out to me, and I always talk about how it's so hard to be a top 12 wide receiver on a team that's bottom five in pass attempts. But don't expect him to be top 12. I know, but I'm not saying you draft him as top 12, but I'm not drafting a guy in the fourth round that I think has very little chance of being a top

12 wide receiver, which I don't think is necessarily... I'm not sure where I'm at on Flowers. I think he's really damn good. I don't think in this offense he's got top 12 potential. Yeah, I mean, probably not, because they just don't throw enough. But what if they start throwing more? What if they have the eighth fewest pass attempts in the NFL?

Then he absolutely has a chance. That's a different story, yes. Right, but I don't think that's something that we should expect from them. Probably not. I just don't think that's not going to happen. I think Flowers might end up being kind of like Tyler Lockett. What was your view of Tyler Lockett before this year?

Was he consistent? Not really. Was he somebody who could get you? He could help you win a week once every four weeks. And then the other three weeks, he's like around 11 or 12 PPR points. It's not going to kill you. I bet that's what Zay Flowers will end up being. If I'm confusing everybody, I just want to bring this up.

And feel free to question me on it, right? I know that Zay Flowers is not going to get drafted as a top 12 wide receiver. However, if you're investing a fourth or a fifth round draft pick, I do think you need to ask, does he have top 12 upside? Same thing with Jordan Addison. He may not be a top 15 wide receiver on in drafts he won't be but i think there's such there's such a big group of wide receivers that you know such

a big tier you just you need to be asking does this guy have top 15 potential and you know that's why i never draft terry mclaurin like i would probably draft look we'll see what happens with them right we'll see who's brought in and whatnot. But I'd probably draft Jordan Addison ahead of Terry McLaurin. But you're talking about round five type of players. I don't think anybody should be drafting these guys in the first four rounds.

And so for round five type of players in a three-receiver league, the way most educated fantasy players are drafting right now, that's your third receiver. Yeah, that's fine. But I still want a third receiver who has a lot of upside. And I think Addison. Yes. But, but again, you're, you're, you're looking at it, I think from the perspective of when you're assigning the round value to it, I don't want to speak for you, but, um, you're talking like wide receiver 20 to 25 and beyond at that point, you know, so it's not exactly like

you have the ability to say, I'm taking these guys over players with what most people are going to consider have more upside. I say that I got lost there and say that again. You're talking about a group of receivers. I know you said it's a, it's a big bunch, but I don't think people are going to be comparing these guys to receivers that are going to be drafted in the top 15 through 20 group. No, no, not at all. You're comparing them to the guys being drafted around them. So these are, we're actually looking at the draft we did last week. Jordan Addison was something like wide receiver 30, but the wide receivers going in round five were Calvin Ridley, Drake London, Terry McLaurin, Jordan Addison,

Jaden Reed, and Christian Kirk. That's wide receivers 25 to 30. Yeah, that's a delicious place to get them. That's perfect for these guys if you get them that late. Would you say they pretty much all have top 15

upside? I don't know. I mean, I think Addison does. Does Calvin Ridley? Probably the right situation, yes. I don't think. Is Drake London? Yes.

Yes. The right quarterback. If it's PPR, I'll say yes to London. Is Terry McLaurin? With the right quarterback, yes. Harder time saying yes to that one. Does Jordan Addison with,

with, with a healthy quarterback? Yes. And a bum tight end. Does Jaden read not with a healthy Christian Watson? Yeah. I'm

does struggle with that one. I don't think he's got top 15, no. Does Christian Kirk? Didn't you say top 12 before? I was hoping for that. I can still hope for that. Does Christian Kirk top 15? Yeah, if there's no Ridley Beck.

And by the way, if Watson misses half the season like we're now expecting him to basically do every year, then yeah, Reid does have that type of potential. Hey, you know what's great, though? Sportsline is great. Please check out Sportsline. In season, there's tremendous fantasy content leading up to this season as well. Dave,

Jamie, Heath, they all have content on Sportsline.com. Jacob Gibbs has his Beyond the Box score column on Sportsline. And NFL Draft, if you want to get ready for the NFL Draft, you want to make some wagers. It's a great betting site. We'll give you picks on every game with a computer, with expert picks,

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And 60% off, that's a ridiculous steal. Use the code FOLLOW when you sign up on sportsline.com slash join. I have a few news and notes here. The Rams signed Demarcus Robinson to a one-year deal. He had

92 yards or a touchdown in five straight games down the stretch before playing just 39% of the snaps in week 18. And then he had 44 yards in one postseason game. So Demarcus Robinson, should he get drafted in a 12-team league with, say, five bench spots? Well, I mean, if you're going to rank the Rams receivers, it's Puka, Robinson, Cooper, Cup at this point. Late round flyer, yeah, I think you can.

I think he's got to be reserved for deeper leagues. The Colts are going to keep Michael Pittman. Jamie alluded to that earlier. And remember, just keep in mind with the Rams that while Davis Allen's getting a lot of hype, they're going to be down Tyler Higby, so their offense may look a little different just in terms of scheme. The dolphins want to extend to a tongue of ILOA and they expect,

I had read a report that's around Armstead was not going to retire, but now they don't know. And they expect a decision very soon before free agency kicks off in about a week and a half or so. They expect to run Armstead to make a decision about retirement. That's their left tackle. And Jaguars head coach Doug Peterson said he would consider giving Travis Etienne fewer reps to keep him healthy. Dave, what do you think about that?

He was a true workhorse last year, Etienne. No, we want to keep him as a true workhorse. Certainly, he's a high-efficient running back. I love that they gave him work near the goal line. I would hate if they took that away from him. Maybe they just find a new change of pace back that takes seven carries a game, seven touches a game. Okay.

Do you think that... Right, right. As long as he gets the touches we want, then it's fine, right? The high-value touches. Between that and Todd Bowles saying something similar about Rashad White, it's just not fun. Like, don't say those things.

No, and unfortunately, it's so smart. Like, fantasy managers hate it because no one wants to see every team have multiple running backs and have a 1A and a 1B and timeshare, RBBC, all that crap. But it makes sense for the teams to do that when they don't have a superstar. The problem is that we kind of view ETN as a borderline superstar. Rashad White put up numbers like a superstar. It's up to these coaches and what they want to do right by the player. They want the player to stay healthy all year. I get it. I just, I don't like it. Jamie said it best. It's not fun. I don't mind it. Maybe ETN...

Everybody gets the same amount of time. Everybody gets 12 touches. I don't want that. I think exactly what you said. You spell him for 7-8 carries. If ETN just needs to be fresher... Look, he lost a yard per carry. Maybe he just was overworked.

I'd rather him, you know, be more effective as long as he's not losing the goal line touches and has enough catches. Just don't put him into block when he doesn't have to do anything. Fine, yeah, fine.

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I want to go to Jack's place today. I'll just take the car. Don't wait up, okay? Kids go from 0 to 18 in no time, don't they? At Intact Insurance, we insure your car so you can take the car. Don't wait up, okay? Kids go from 0 to 18 in no time, don't they? At Intact Insurance, we insure your car so you can enjoy the ride. Visit Intact.ca or talk to your broker. Conditions apply. Back to the sophomore wide receivers, and let me ask you a Pukunukua question. Do you have legitimate concerns about Pukunukua,

who set the rookie record for receiving yards and receptions with just an incredible year. Do you have bus concerns about him? I mean, I think any of these guys that don't have the pedigree, not to say that he didn't have a good enough college career, but clearly the NFL world did not feel that that was the case based on where he was drafted. And so did he just land, as Dave said, in the right system at the right time that maybe Cooper Cup has a little bit of a bounce back season or hopefully a big bounce back season for those people that are invested in him heavily because he's healthy.

And that takes away from Puka. Does the, you know, the Marcus Robinson signing indicate that, you know, he's not going to get as many targets. It's just hard to get away from what he did. Like he was just so successful and so productive and so much of a factor. I mean, like I said, I spoke to him at the Pro Bowl and, you know, it was, it was sort of a, you know, not a, not a joking question, but, you know, I asked him about the breakfast club. You know, I said, at what point did you, did you start to sit in on those, on those meetings? And he said, you know, I just kind of invited myself and I, that's good. I invited myself and I just kind of showed up and he said it was like a day or two and they kind of looked over me and like, Puka, you're here. Um, you know, and, but he just, you know, became a guy that Matthew

Stafford and Sean McVay could rely on. And there was that clip that circulated, you know, midpoint last season when he was really making a lot of, you know, plays, you know, week after week and, uh, less need and, and, and Sean McVay, you know, saying that this was a guy that it was in the draft room that this was one of the guys that they were targeting. They were going to be really pissed if they didn't get them. And so clearly they had a plan for him from, from the get-go. Uh, it was, it was everything fell into place with Stafford staying healthy and having a bounce back season, looking like his old self cup getting injured. But, you know, you just don't want this to be, you know, you, you mentioned a name and it, it, it scares me a little bit. They're not the same player, but a similar type situation.

Eddie Royal, remember his rookie season was, um, I believe because if I'm not mistaken, it was Demarcus Robinson or the other guy. I'm blanking on his name. The two receivers for Peyton Manning at the end. I don't remember if it was Peyton Manning. You were thinking of Demarius Thomas, not Demarcus Robinson. I'm sorry, Demarius Thomas and— Was it Decker at that point? Yes.

One of them got hurt, if I'm not mistaken, and that led to Royal having the rookie season. His rookie year, I think, was with Jay Cutler. I had that. Maybe I'm off. I don't know. Yeah. So when I see the guys who –

I look at that list of the sophomore receivers, the guys who do worse, and Puka's probably going to go on the worst list. I mean, there's a good chance he's going to go on the worst list because he had the best rookie season, right? I mean, he was incredible. Six, number six wide receiver, number four wide receiver in PPR overall.

But a lot of them had passing game downgrades. So Jay Cutler had a good year in Eddie Royals rookie season. Kyle Orton came in in his second season. Everything was worse. You see like Michael Clayton, I think, whoever it was, like went from, gosh, whoever the quarterback was, had a good year, that rookie, oh, whatever his name was, and then he was bad after that.

Josh Johnson. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Freeman, right. It was something like that. I mean, I might be mixing it up a little bit, but I think if I have any Puka concerns, I don't know how you guys feel about this, it's Stafford. Yes. Just because we saw, right we saw what 2022 looked like.

And you know that he got beat up toward the end of the year. He obviously left that game against Dallas. Obviously, he came back from that, and he was fine. But if you're going to make a bus case for Puka, that's where you start. Will that offensive line be the same, And will Matthew Stafford be the same? And if Matthew Stafford isn't the same, how do you feel about the quarterback behind him? Could it be Carson once again?

Could it be somebody worse? A lot of questions there, but it's not enough to make you want to head for the hills on Puka or downgrade him. You're not going to put him in the rankings behind Rishi Rice or Tank Dell. I don't see anything like that happening. I think he's the number one receiver for the Rams. And by the way, I would argue that there's meat on the bone still. He had 16 red zone targets. He had 10 end zone targets. He scored six times. He was top 10 in explosive receiving rate. He was,

I could cherry pick stats all day long. He was top 10 in basically every single stat among the rookie wide receivers in the class. And so I think that he can certainly pick up where he left off in an offense. It's still going to have Cooper cup on there. I don't know if DeMarcus Robinson is going to keep up this thing of being the guy that takes the top off, but there's going to be options there. And this offense hums really well with Stafford. So as long as Stafford's there, I think there's plenty of potential for Puka to continue picking up a 28% target per route run rate and being a very,

very good fantasy wide receiver. Josh Freeman, by the way, was Mike Williams quarterback, not Michael Clayton's quarterback. So I mixed up my, my busts after we are sucking on history. Yeah, it's a, it's a lot of stuff here.

I'm an economics professor, not a history professor. We talked Puka. We talked with She Rice, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Jaden Reed. We haven't really talked about Tank Dell. He's clearly the third guy for you guys on this list behind Puka and Rice. As of now.

Jamie, you said it happened to Rasheed Rice. Yeah, is he clearly third for you, Tankdale? As of now, yes. And it's not that far apart between Rice and Dell to begin with. So if Rice does get a lot of company, then Dell's the easy number two guy. The only thing I'll go back to is would not shock me if JSN has just like a rocket strapped to his back and gets pushed ahead of these guys.

But you could say, you could easily make a case that Tank Dell was a lot better than Rishi Rice. And in the games where he actually played, they both actually waited a while before they got good snap shares. But Tank Dell is explosive. He goes downfield. Rasheed Rice had the lowest ADOT among 80 wide receivers with 50 or more targets. His ADOT was less than five yards. You know, that's, it's hard to make big plays when that's happening. So you could make the

case that Tank Dell is where it's at and not Rasheed Rice. You definitely can. I think you'd also make the case just based on where he's at in his career that Tank Dell's running mate is worse for him than Rice's running mate right now. Collins, I think,

has the potential to do more damage to Tank Dell than Travis Kelsey does to Rasheed Rice. Yeah, but Tank Dell is a better quarterback. Wow. Come on. Yeah, Tank Dell did some amazing stuff, amazing stuff with a 15-yard ADOT, which is a little too high for my liking,

to be quite honest with you. But ADOTs change a lot from year one to year two. You look at Jalen Waddell, for example. You look at Devontae Smith. These guys become different players, so we shouldn't pigeonhole them into the roles that they had as rookies. Okay, if there's nothing else to say about him, who do you want to talk about?

We got Dontavian Wicks, Michael Wilson in Arizona, Jonathan Mingo, Trey Palmer for Tampa Bay, Marvin Mims, Dave mentioned Jalen Hyatt, Trey Tucker, A.T. Perry,. Dave mentioned Jalen Hyatt. Trey Tucker. A.T. Perry. Cedric Tillman. Jake Bobo. People like Jake Bobo.

I like Jake Bobo. He could be interesting if Lockett's gone, stepping into that third role. Right. You mentioned a few names there. I like what Sean Payton said about Marvin Mims, that they held him back. Hopefully we see some changes in their receiving core from Mims' perspective, and that could open him up to a bigger role with a new quarterback.

Perry and Tucker are very interesting, just with the chance for the Saints with a new coordinator coming in, including Kubiak. And if Michael Thomas and Rashid Shahid are gone, both free agents, does he get an opportunity to have a bigger role and maybe can be the number two receiver there opposite Chris Olave? So that's an interesting one. And clearly in Las Vegas, they're going to have a new quarterback most likely. And does Tucker take a step forward

and maybe can become the third receiver there behind Devontae Adams and Jacoby Myers. So there there's a lot to like about some of these guys, Michael Wilson, though, I think is, is in a different category. You know, he was, he was the other guy I was going to name. If Dave had said to Mario Douglas, you know, we don't know exactly what this receiving core is going to look like for the Cardinals, you know, easy to, you know,

sort of project that Marvin Harrison jr. Goes there at four, or if maybe, you know, one of the teams or a team jumps in front of them and they're staring at neighbors, maybe they go neighbors. But he's going to be one of their top three receivers, I would assume, unless they just completely revamped their receiving core. Greg Dortch is gone. Not that he's a factor, but with Marquise Brown out the door, Michael Wilson could easily be one of the go-to guys for Kyler Murray, which would be fun.

What do you guys think about Josh Downs? Good spot receiver, PPR only, nervous about high volume if Anthony Richardson's the quarterback. Man, he had a great stretch weeks five through eight, 15.7 points, 13.1, 23.5, 14.2. And he did that against, you know, among those teams, Cleveland and New Orleans. So he only had the one big play to open the game. Yeah. Five catches, 125 yards and a touchdown.

He was a big playmaker, though, in college. I mean, it was terrific, explosive playmaker, Josh Downs. Yeah, I have a hard time getting excited about a number two receiver with a mobile quarterback. But, you know, that's that's Josh Downs. Yeah, I have a hard time getting excited about a number two receiver with a mobile quarterback. But, you know, that's Josh Downs. He averaged 5.9 targets per game in 13 games with Minshew. I think he can get close to that with Richardson. Some weeks he'll have some 7, 8 target games,

and some weeks he'll have some 2 and 3 target games. Anyone else? I mean we gotta talk about Quentin Johnston oh right I did sort of skip over listen I don't mean to do this as like a fun thing this isn't fun I'd kind of rather hear about Professor Eisenberg's trip

to Las Vegas but this is a second year receiver who had a great profile coming out, went to a team, we loved the fit, and he completely fell on his face. And now it's like, what would it take for you to be excited about drafting Quentin Johnston? And the first thing for me would be, it's round 14 and he's still on the board, I would be moderately intrigued.

Yeah. I guess I'm a little bit more optimistic just because of the potential changes that are there in terms of the receiving core. You know, you have, they have the opportunity to, I think, add someone like, for example, I'm writing today, you know, like just more, more having fun with it, but like ideal fantasy fits and Marquise Brown to the Chargers makes a lot of sense because he had his best years with Greg Roman, and there's a potential hole there with Mike Williams coming off the books and maybe adding a proven receiver to Justin Herbert. But if they don't go the veteran route and maybe just plug a hole in their receiving core

because they're going to be a more run-heavy team, then he has a huge opportunity in front of him i mean it's just he's with one of the better quarterbacks he like dave said his profile coming out was good it's unfortunate that he's he's such a body catcher you know with the way he you know goes gets the football that he and it's just not working for him at least it didn't his rookie campaign but he can have a better sophomore season i mean he just it just the the vibes aren't great right now. So I don't think he'll last around 14, but that's the sentiment is the later he's on the board, the better off you take a flyer on him and just hope that maybe he catches, you know, eight touchdowns, which I don't think would be out of the realm of possibility.

No, it's a matter of what he does with the rest of the numbers, but I mean, he's going to be a downfield threat. He still got that big body and for what it's worth, he was open a lot last year. So that's something that, you know, you can hopefully work with him to just do a better job on catching the football, which is something you would think is, is the natural part of being an NFL wide receiver, but I'm still hoping for him. Seven of his 67 targets were end zone targets. So at least they had the sense to try and use him that way he only had two touchdowns on the year

but i he could he make a jump yes is it likely that he makes a jump to where he's better than a number three fantasy receiver um and a jim harbaugh greg roman joint offense makes me tough to i have a hard time buying into, but that's why you're going to get them late. I have a list of surprising year, two wide receivers, guys who basically did nothing as rookies and then were good in their second season. Most of them were not good in their third season,

but if you want to be hopeful, I think Kenny Galladay had a very quiet rookie year. He had 477 yards and three touchdowns. That was only in 11 games, so I guess that's not even a great example. He had a big week one and then kind of fell off. But that was 11 games, so that doesn't even work. Chris Godwin had 525 yards

in 16 games. He followed that up with 842 yards and seven touchdowns in his sophomore season. You can sign up for that right now for Quentin Johnson. Yeah. I mean, because of the touchdowns,

but it's, you know, it's 52 yards per game is not great. Then his third season, he was the number two wide receiver in fantasy, but there's really not a lot of, I mean, like Alan Hearns is on this list.

Tyrell Williams, DJ Chark, Cortland Sutton, Cortland Sutton could be a guy to look at. Um, but Quentin Johnson's rookie season was so bad. 25 yards per game. That's

alarming. I don't think he would have done much, but it sucked that Keenan Allen got hurt when Justin Herbert got hurt. Yeah, right. Could have seen that sample size, sure. Unless there's anyone else

i'll uh let you guys go okay you're gone have a great day i'm actually gonna talk to jamie on oh oh the professor how'd it go it went really well it went really well um vegas was fun no surprise there uh so it was good to get out there a little bit, see some friends and the class was awesome. Um, they were, they were a great group of kids. Um, we actually did a mock draft in the class. Um, and it's funny. Um, the, the professor, uh, his name is Dr. Eric Chang. Um, brilliant, brilliant person.

Um, got a chance to meet him for the first time. And so the draft was actually his idea. And so after I talked about, you know, my job and we talked about some of the numbers of fantasy football and stuff like that. So we did the draft. And so I gave him a rank list of players and he's not a football guy. He, uh, he took the list and he put it in alphabetical order. So, um, I'm handing out the list, the rank list to the kids of the class. I'm like, Oh, this isn't what I sent you. He goes, Oh no, I alphabetized it. And so his thought was, um, if it was just an order that the kids would have just drafted them in order. So we did a six round mock draft. So they had to draft one quarterback, running backs two receivers uh tight end and flex and uh it was 10 teams and the class paired up into groups

so that there was hopefully somebody who knew what they were doing with some people that didn't but really there was only i think three people of the of the 30 kids were there um that uh actually knew what fantasy football was wow oh, no, that's not good. No, I mean, it's interesting when you see people that don't really follow it and care about it. So there was one young man who really knew what he was doing. He said he's played in several leagues before. So his team ended up with, it was him and a girl in the class, they ended up with C.J. Stroud.

The professor actually gave uh three prizes to the top three teams so it was a five dollar gift card a ten dollar gift card a twenty five dollar gift card to the winners um based on my judgment and the winning team was um cj stroud jonathan taylor ken walker tyree kill justin jefferson jamar chase and i forget who the titan was not Walker, Tyree Kill, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase. And I forget who the tight end was, not that it matters. And that was the winning team. And so like halfway through, he goes, yeah, we won. Was Devon Achan the first player on the list, alphabetically?

Devon Achan, no. Well, they were in alphabetical order by position. And so, um, Josh, one team actually, I think, I don't even know if it was on purpose, but ended up with,

uh, three chiefs, not named Kelsey. Kelsey was one of the early picks cause Taylor Swift. Uh, but it was, it was fun. You know,

they, they, they, you know, talked to a few of the kids afterwards. They were like, Oh, I'm actually looking forward to the next year to play fantasy football.

And, um, they were, they were really into it. all right is there an economics lesson that can be taught from the from the fantasy football perspective um a lesson to be taught i mean you know we talked about some of the numbers like i there's there's a um uh fsga fantasy sports gaming association survey that they did in 2022 that i referenced there might it might be updated since then but i i

just kind of um this is lazy student eisenberg um i used the the same powerpoint presentation from the first time i did this at fau so i just used the same uh i mean we updated some of it but we just used the same survey from the FSGA. So, you know, the amount of people who play fantasy, the amount of money that's put into fantasy, you know, the demographics of it, you know, those things I think were very interesting to that group, for example. But in terms of like the game itself, I don't know if there's anything that's an economic standpoint that you can. Let me ask a question a different way. How can I make $50 million playing playing fantasy but no not a good question all right uh there was um there was a young man in the in the class that's already working for the west gate sports book and so uh it just sucked the timing of it he invited um me and

my friend who's the fau professor to go check out the sports book afterwards and sort of, I think, like behind the scenes. And so I was looking forward to that, but we had our flight that night, so we couldn't do it. That would have been fun. Yeah. Did you go to the Sphere?

Did you take home as much as Pete took home? Did I take home as much as Pete took home? Yeah. I don't know if Pete took home. Okay. Did you go to the Sphere? I did go to the Sphere. Is that amazing?

I did. We saw the movie that they showed there. It was really cool. Nice. All right. Well, I'm glad you're back, and thanks for your contributions. And everyone, and Jamie is now an ambassador of fantasy football, spreading it to Las Vegas.

Good stuff. Dave, Jamie, thank you very much. Oh, yeah. Las Vegas had never heard of fantasy football. No, they never heard. It was amazing. Really an untapped market. Untapped market there.

We're out of here. I should end the show immediately. Talk to you on fantasy football today in five, if you want to hop over to that. Adios.