Fantasy Football Today - Start or Sit (AFC); Add Alex Collins! (10/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: October 7, 2021

Should you start Alex Collins tonight if Chris Carson can't go? That's our first topic before we get into the players we love (6:00) and the players to avoid (10:00) in Week 5. Leonard Fournette is ou...r Start of the Week and Daniel Jones is set up for success. Meanwhile, you should probably bench Allen Robinson this week. We also tell you our confidence level (12:50) in Brandin Cooks, Laviska Shenault and Courtland Sutton ... News and notes (17:00) and rankings disputes (22:40) on Aaron Rodgers, Latavius Murray, Michael Pittman and Jared Cook ... Start or sit for Bills-Chiefs (31:30), Bears-Raiders (40:40), Packers-Bengals (48:40), Colts-Ravens (54:30), Browns-Chargers (59:40), Titans-Jaguars (1:05:00), Broncos-Steelers (1:08:50) and Patriots-Texans (1:12:30) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:21 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Welcome to your AFC preview here. Eight games to talk about today, including Chiefs and Bills. Arguably the worst defense in football so far, and arguably the best defense in football so far. Who do you think is going to win, Chiefs or Bills?
Starting point is 00:01:44 Bills. Yeah, yeah. or Bills? Bills. Yeah, yeah. It's weird you say that, and Chiefs are favored by three, but I guess that's the Arrowhead thing. I mean, I'll say the Chiefs. Yeah, the Chiefs, to be fair, they faced Cleveland, Baltimore, and the Chargers and the Eagles. The Bills have faced the Steelers, Dolphins,
Starting point is 00:02:02 football team, and Texans, so that skews the offense and defense stats just a little bit. We also have Chargers-Browns. That should be a good one. Packers at Bengals, very interesting. Some tough start or sit decisions maybe in the Colts and the Ravens game. Chicago at Las Vegas. What do we think about Justin Fields?
Starting point is 00:02:20 We'll get to all of that as we welcome you to the AFC Home Game Show on this Thursday. And who's got Alex Collins? Who's picked up Alex Collins? Everywhere. Yeah, I can't believe he went for only $15. I put like a $46 bid on him, but I didn't get him because I also put $46 on Damian Williams. And then he went for $15 in our Fab League.
Starting point is 00:02:44 I think that could have been a steal. I think this is where certain scenarios, the Tuesday waivers are more helpful than the Wednesday waivers. In one case, I guess. Well, this, I think, would be a case for the Wednesday waivers, because we found out more
Starting point is 00:03:00 about Chris Carson now. Well, I think people were picking him up, and you got him cheaper Tuesday than you did on Wednesday. Oh, right. I mean, in that sense, yes. Like last night when I saw the notification that Chris Carson has a long-term neck injury and he's probably going to miss tonight's game,
Starting point is 00:03:15 but okay, it's like a chronic neck injury. Doesn't mean he's going to miss a lot of time, but it's an issue that's going to linger. So Heath, what's your read on the Seahawks backfield right now? I'm pretty excited about Alex Collins tonight. I hope Chris Carson's okay. My understanding, and I want to clarify because I could have this wrong,
Starting point is 00:03:31 this did not sound to me like it was a new injury. It's something that's bothering him that he has dealt with for quite a while, and he's not able to manage it this week, right? That's what I saw as well, but still okay it doesn't sound good oh no a neck injury is very concerning especially for a football player and a running back so i i think alex collins like i had chris carson ranked around 22nd or 23rd when i thought he was going to play when we made the change collins is like 17th or 18th in my projections now i'm more excited about starting him than I was Carson,
Starting point is 00:04:06 which is not that abnormal. I think he's probably going to get 15 carries and a couple of targets and be a good starting running back. Why didn't we pick him up in our league, Heath? He went for $0 in that league. Well, I think we didn't have enough roster spots.
Starting point is 00:04:21 It's true. We kind of did it. Alright, Alex Collins, check the roster percentage. He's's 43 percent rostered he could be a starting running back we should probably stick with this just for a bit here before we get into players we love and players we're avoiding this week uh if you have if you have christian mccaffrey he's trending i wouldn't say he's trending in the right direction but there's a possibility he could play but we're definitely trending in the right direction, but there's a possibility he could play. He's definitely trending in the right direction. Okay, maybe not enough for me. I didn't want to say that because then it makes it sound like he's going to play.
Starting point is 00:04:51 But what would you do if he might play? He might play, but if you have to start Alex Collins tonight or hold off on McCaffrey, I mean. Totally depends on who you have. Yeah, like we had a question yesterday. It was an AskFFT question on HQ. It was in regards to Robert Woods and A.J. Brown. And then I know one of the other options was play Robert Woods tonight or wait out A.J. Brown's injury situation.
Starting point is 00:05:13 This was before we found out he was in practice. And the choices were, and there was a third, but it was Claypool and Michael Pittman. And this is like, he's not different on the answer. I would have played, I think you were a part of this, Adam, as well. I would have played, I would play Woods personally because I think he's not different on on the answer i i would have played i think you were part of this adam as well um i would have played i would play woods personally because i think he's gonna be okay uh but he said he he waited out because he likes pitman right but so so you're saying basically if collins or woods here like you what i'm getting at is not not collins or woods i'm getting at is like to what he said if there's somebody on your team that you like, you wait it out. If there's somebody you don't like, then you split a guy
Starting point is 00:05:47 tonight. The split, I think Jamie and I feel probably similarly about Robert Woods. It has to do with how we feel about Michael Pittman. That would be the same thing with your running back. If there's somebody you feel okay starting, then I'd probably try to wait it out. Would you start at Alex Collins or Damian Harris this week
Starting point is 00:06:03 against the Texans? I like Harris better in non-PPR, but I would play Collins in PPR. I think we've had a couple passes more than Harris. Definitely going to start him over Allen Robinson? Yes. Would you start Alex Collins? Get the rankings up here. Do some wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:06:25 Alex Collins or Antonio Brown against the Dolphins? Alex Collins. Yeah, I think I'm going Collins. You see Amari Cooper show up on the injury report. Probably going to play, but Cooper or Collins? Collins. Yeah, I think I've got Cooper higher in full PPR, um, Collins. Yeah. I've,
Starting point is 00:06:45 I think I've got Cooper higher in full PPR, but Collins and everything else. All right. That is your Alex Collins segment here. Who are some players? We love Jamie. Kick it off. Start of the week.
Starting point is 00:06:57 Uh, Leonard Fournette. Uh, I know that sounds strange to say loving Leonard Fournette, but, even with Giovanni Bernard coming back, you know, he was dominating snaps when Bernard was playing. And we typically have seen Bernard be a factor when they're chasing points. I would be very surprised if they're chasing points this
Starting point is 00:07:13 week. So Fournette, I would love to see another 20 carry game for him, but I think this will be his first touchdown. He's going to score against Miami. They've already allowed four running backs to get over 90 total yards this season. Three of them have gone over 100 yards rushing against them. They've allowed five rushing touchdowns so far. So I think this is a great setup for Fournette to finally find the end zone and hopefully have 100 total yards on top of it. Heath, who do you love? There were some people who thought that maybe I was too mean to you yesterday,
Starting point is 00:07:46 so I'm just going to be nice and say, not just being nice, I believe it too, Daniel Jones. And we need to give Daniel Jones a little bit more credit. He is averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt, more than 40 rushing yards per game, facing a Dallas defense
Starting point is 00:08:02 that's much better than it was last year, but I still don't think is the one that matters or one that you need to shy away from. Going to be chasing the score against a very good Dallas offense. I have Daniel Jones projected as a top six quarterback. I'm going to rank him as a top 12 quarterback and love, love, love him in DFS this week. Okay, but why is this week different than the Falcons week
Starting point is 00:08:25 when he really disappointed? The point is that I wrote about this. One of the most important things about fantasy is not letting things like that affect your decision-making. The fact that he had a bad game because he did not have any touchdowns. He had in that game, 305 total yards.
Starting point is 00:08:48 Yeah. If he does that again, he's going to have a good fantasy day. Just didn't happen to have any touchdowns in that game. The fact that he was good against the saints a week later, the fact that he was good against the Broncos and decent against the Washington football team. Like just don't,
Starting point is 00:09:03 don't let that affect you. Hopefully that holds his DFS roster rate down. He's the anti-Ben Roethlisberger. Better on the road than home. Well, I just think that it's the red zone that kills me with Daniel Jones. What's their red zone percentage? 33% they've scored a touchdown. That's the lowest in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:09:23 And you think about the touchdowns he scored against the saints long pass to john ross long pass to saquon barkley and that is that is what ultimately led him to a bad day against the falcons so you say he didn't score the touchdowns that's the problem with daniel jones if they can improve that then he can really break out number 12 quarterback in fantasy yeah he is running a lot i think the thing with with these quarterbacks and you know it's it starts with sam donald because he's been the more consistent of these guys the streamers that have turned into you know borderline starters um how many people are starting them over the guys that they drafted you know tannahill it's easy right because if he doesn't have his receivers that's an easy pivot but who else lawrence maybe
Starting point is 00:10:03 in a fourth like i drafted lawrence as a starter in a 14-team league. I'm starting Sam Donald now. That's easy for me. We can rank it however we want to. We can tell people whatever we want to. What about Burrow? Who's actually doing it? Burrow, I think.
Starting point is 00:10:15 Actually, Burrow is my Daniel Jones this week. He's my DFS guy. But who do you guys like better, Burrow or Jones? I think what Heath said is accurate. These are more DFS plays for one quarterback, 12 team leagues. These are not necessarily starting options. You can say, we can tell you, Daniel Jones is going to be better than,
Starting point is 00:10:33 it might be Aaron Rodgers, it might be, I think, one that stood out for me for Dave, he's got Donald over Lamar Jackson. You can tell people that, but how many people are going to actually put into practice? Okay, but who do you like better, Daniel Jones or Burrow? Jonesones uh i like burrow better this week but it's close okay all right let's go to players we're avoiding heath why don't you start makes me really sad to say this but alan robinson i had to uh finagle the projections to get alan robinson into my top 48 rankings
Starting point is 00:11:01 because uh he wasn't there when i initially did it. I don't know. I don't think it's going to be this bad all year, but right now Darnell Mooney is playing more snaps, getting more targets, and producing more than Allen Robinson. And there is a little bit of Mooney kind of fits with the thing we've seen Justin Fields do well so far, and that is going down the field. Fields is going to do that.
Starting point is 00:11:25 Andy Dalton did not do that. I think it's still going to be a low-volume pass attack for the Bears, and a low-volume attack where there's not as many short area throws is just a really bad situation for Allen Robinson. No Trayvon Mullen at practice for the Raiders. Jonathan Abram was limited. No Damon Arnett. So they are a little beat up in the secondary. But I was just saying, I wasn't disputing what you were saying, but just Raiders,
Starting point is 00:11:54 if they can protect fields, maybe some opportunities here for fields. All right, Jamie, player you're avoiding or players? Much like the Eagles, I'm avoiding Miles Sanders. It's just too tough to trust. You know, at this point, you know, nine carries in two games and Kenneth Gainwell gaining steam. It's not an easy matchup against the Panthers.
Starting point is 00:12:13 So I can understand if you have to play him as a flex, but if you can get away from him, I mean, I would certainly pivot to Alice Collins or Damian Williams or even Samajai Piran if you're looking at some options that were available to you on waivers. I just can't trust them at this point. Okay, that works. We have a lot more to get to here, but all season long, we're playing the Fantasy Football Today Start or Sit Challenge.
Starting point is 00:12:36 This is really fun. I hope everybody's taking advantage of this. Just go to a website and answer some start or sit questions, win some prizes. CBSSports.com slash start sit to play. Each week, answer 10 start sit questions, win some prizes. CBSSports.com slash start sit to play. Each week, answer 10 start sit questions to win a customized Trophy Smack Championship belt with your name engraved.
Starting point is 00:12:51 And the overall winner for the season wins $1,000 and a guest appearance on the podcast. One question this week is Allen Robinson versus Cortland Sutton in half PPR. Who would you guys vote for here? Who would you start? Allen Robinson or Cortland Sutton in half PPR. Who would you guys vote for here? Who would you start? Allen Robinson or Cortland Sutton in half PPR? Ooh.
Starting point is 00:13:11 Over under 15 total fantasy points from these two. I have Robinson one spot higher than Cortland Sutton, so they're both in the 40s for me. All right. CBSSports.com slash start sit to play. Let's talk about some key players that we won't get to for another hour. Brandon Cooks against New England.
Starting point is 00:13:34 Start or sit? Revenge game. Start. You're probably starting him. You might have a situation where you have three better wide receivers. He's a low- end number two for me, but the volume is just too good.
Starting point is 00:13:49 Oh, but Davis Mills. I mean, he is not a professional quarterback. You know what Davis Mills does? He throws to Brandon Cooks. He also throws to probably the Patriots. By the way, Heath, you're way too low on the Patriots DST. You got him fourth.
Starting point is 00:14:02 You got him fourth. Who was it last week I was way too low on? I think it was the Titans. Oh, yeah. We were making... So it started in the green room. I think Ben is actually the first person that said it. I can't believe Heath has the Titans at 23.
Starting point is 00:14:19 And I said, I don't know. And then by the end of the day, I'm like, man, Heath was a genius on this one. Where did they finish, I wonder? Probably right yeah i guess they were worse than the team opposite them they were worse than the jets yep jets had seven sacks right uh yes they did yes okay um how do you feel about the viscous chenault against tennessee jamie you kind of alluded to this i don't remember when you said it but but his routes were different. He had a 14.6 ADOT in week three. He basically became DJ Chark,
Starting point is 00:14:50 where he was typically like a four or five yard ADOT, I think. How do you feel about him against the Titans this week, Leviska? I like him. You know, I think he's definitely a starter in a three receiver league, you know, depending on what you have in a two receiver league. But I would start him over the two guys that we showed in the poll. I would start him over the two guys that we showed in the poll.
Starting point is 00:15:05 I would start him over Allen Robinson and Corlin Sutton. I think you look at this is a team that does not get to the quarterback. And so Trevor Lawrence should have some time. You know, I think LaVisca Chenault should be able to grind out a good performance this week. Okay. Yes, that was pun intended. Why?
Starting point is 00:15:28 I don't get it. You'll think about it. I'll make him expand on it. Anybody else can tweet you and say, I can't believe you didn't get it. Oh, okay, okay. I could come up with something that's so much worse than that, but obviously I won't do that. Well, you saw how the Jaguars broke down their team practice yesterday, right?
Starting point is 00:15:49 No. Grind on three. They did not. Yes, they did. Oh, my God. That's terrible. I hope they say that every practice. I hope they do, too.
Starting point is 00:15:59 Oh, so, Jamie, what did the Grim Reaper say when he went into the shoe store? What did the Grim Reaper say when he went into the shoe store? What did the Grim Reaper say when he went into the shoe store? Heath, you can participate too. I'm here for your souls. Nice. Yeah. Halloween dad humor. There you go.
Starting point is 00:16:18 Heath, the Jaguars in the same game with Chennault, the grind game. The Jaguars have allowed 100 yards to five wide receivers so far do you like any tennessee receivers if now brown might be playing but if brown and julio don't play would you gamble on any of them like is too strong of a word um but josh reynolds would be the guy i would be most interested in he was the guy who we actually um had heard of coming into the season no No, that's not fair to everybody else. But like an NFL wide receiver. Well, you've heard of Tesla Rogers.
Starting point is 00:16:50 And he had, I think he had a team leading nine targets last week. So Josh Reynolds would be the guy for me, but really more as a DFS play or a touchdown or bust flex probably. And the other guy I was going to ask you about that we already talked about is Cortland Sutton. So what is he, a number four wide receiver this week at Pittsburgh? Would that change if
Starting point is 00:17:12 Teddy Bridgewater were able to play? Mm-mm. Okay. Saturday, big SEC on CBS doubleheader. Beginning at 3.30 Eastern with a top 20 matchup between number two Georgia and 18th ranked Auburn.
Starting point is 00:17:32 Then at eight, a huge test for number one Alabama as they head to College Station to take on Texas A&M in primetime. The day begins with the Mercedes-Benz drive to Atlanta at 2.30 Eastern, followed by State Farm College football today, leading up to kickoff. That is Saturday afternoon and night. The SEC is on CBS. So news and notes, I hope you heard the bonus pod that we did yesterday.
Starting point is 00:17:54 Justin Fields is the starter rest of season. When we recorded that, he was 59% rostered. Let's take a quick check at the roster percentage for Justin Fields. Anyone want to guess? 59 yesterday yesterday it is what now 61 58 58 he is down i don't understand that all right so people are cautious here i did note to to um to heath that each of his next three opponents as of right now are missing at least two players in the secondary Vegas Packers and bucks. But I think we said enough about it yesterday.
Starting point is 00:18:31 And the, I think this is more about trusting the coaches as opposed to trusting him. Like let him play free. Yeah. I don't, I think I did mention this. Kyler Murray in his first two, had 17 total rushing yards. And then he had 69 in his third game.
Starting point is 00:18:48 So, you know, Justin Fields, I think, has 19 total. He has 21 total rushing yards in two games. It could come. Don't be shocked. All right, Chris Carson, game time decision. We already talked about that. Carolina is acquiring, or already has acquired, cornerback
Starting point is 00:19:03 Stephon Gilmore from the Patriots. Hey, Gilmore! And he could be back in week seven, I believe. I love that the Panthers are going for it. They're not going to win a Super Bowl unless some things really break right, but you're seeing the offense look the way that it is. It's a very young defense that's playing well.
Starting point is 00:19:20 They've now acquired two corners to help replace J.C. Horn, and give them credit. They haven't spent much to do it. And Christian McCaffrey could be a game-time decision on Sunday against the Eagles. Detroit center Frank Ragnow is on IR with a toe injury. Their next three opponents are Minnesota, Cincinnati, and the Rams. Then they have the Eagles, then a bye.
Starting point is 00:19:42 So this is now two key offensive linemen. When I talked about this with Dave on FFT in five, he thought this was a big deal. Do you guys think that this is a big deal? Detroit starting center, Frank Ragnow, a very good center on IR, at least three games
Starting point is 00:19:52 with a toe injury. Yeah. I mean, you know, you never want to lose a key offensive lineman ever. And this is a team that, you know, doesn't have a lot of
Starting point is 00:20:00 success, you know, with their offense. So losing key players is not going to be a good thing. So you've got to hope that DeAndre Swift and Jamal Williams benefit with some short area passes because of Derek Goff getting the ball out of his hands, hopefully TJ Hawkinson as well. But you never want to lose one of the better offensive linemen in the league and certainly one of the better players on your team.
Starting point is 00:20:23 I speculated yesterday on FFT that this would be worse for Jamal Williams than it would be for DeAndre Swift. Pete Prisco seemed to agree with that, but it's speculation. And it might just be wishful thinking on my part because DeAndre Swift. Forever.
Starting point is 00:20:40 He could carve his name in a tree. DeAndre Swift. With this injury news, rest of season, DeAndre Swift with this injury news. Rest of season, DeAndre Swift. God, I am having the worst hair day. Holy cow. I got to get this thing cut. DeAndre Swift or come on, Schrager. Get out of here with this zoom in.
Starting point is 00:20:58 Antonio Gibson. Rest of season. I'll take Gibson. Swift and PPR, Gibson and none. I legitimately look like I have a toupee on today it's very strange Will Fuller on IR with a finger injury would you wear one if you lost your hair? I honestly don't think that's going to be a problem but
Starting point is 00:21:19 I can't say I don't know Dalvin Cook mispractice. Do we think he's going to play, Dalvin Cook? They seem to indicate yes, but we've seen this before, so just don't drop Alexander Madison yet. Gronk mispractice. Carlton Davis and Antoine Winfield mispractice.
Starting point is 00:21:38 Two Bucs defensive backs. Geo was limited, so he's trending in the right direction. Jamie already talked about that with Leonard Fournette. Bridgewater mispracticed. Green Bay signed linebacker Jalen Smith, who was just cut by Dallas. A.J. Brown was limited. That's good. Julio Jones did not practice.
Starting point is 00:21:54 That's bad. Jerry Judy, good news on him. He could miss the minimum six weeks. Well, not the minimum. I mean, the minimum would be three weeks, but they said, you know, that was kind of the lowest timeline. Six weeks for Judy. He could be back fairly soon.
Starting point is 00:22:08 T. Higgins practiced. You guys have not ranked Higgins yet. Maybe waiting for one more practice for him? Usually wait until they're full. Okay. So, like, after dinner. Joe Mixon missed practice. And we're not ranking Joe Mixon, right?
Starting point is 00:22:25 No. And you have to ranking Joe Mixon, right? No. And you have to wonder if Zach Taylor was being truthful or if the initial report was more accurate. You know, Taylor said day-to-day the tweet from Schefter, the initial report from Schefter initially was week-to-week. So we'll see who's lying. Fooled you. Fooled you.
Starting point is 00:22:43 Two key defensive players for the bears mispractice khalil mac and akim hicks hicks only played one snap last week so this would basically be the second straight game that he misses he's a key defensive tackle in their run defense and tj hawkinson mispractice i think we think he's going to play as of right now time for another halloween football and they in for this glorious month of October. We had DeMarcus Werewolf yesterday. Let's add Robbie Gould. Robbie Gould.
Starting point is 00:23:10 Halloween football name. 60-second rankings disputes. Start with Aaron Rodgers. Okay, let me refresh the rankings, make sure I've got them all, that they're accurate. But as of yesterday, it was Aaron Rodgers ninth for Jamie,
Starting point is 00:23:24 14th for Heathath and dave was somewhere in the middle dave had oh no dave had him eighth all right jamie's dropped him down to 12th and so we don't really have much of a dispute here again i think what jamie said earlier everybody's probably still going to start him um just because like last time we started Daniel Jones over here and Rodgers didn't go very well, but it has been a really slow. I keep he's been good since week one because of week two, but he doesn't have a game with more than 261 yards passing and he has one game with more than two touchdown passes. If he's in that yardage range with most games being at two touchdown passes,
Starting point is 00:24:10 it's not going to be a good fantasy season. Okay. But I mean, you can look at Josh Allen's game log. You can look at Lamar Jackson's game log. They've had one good game. Rogers has had 34, 22 and 27 fantasy points. I mean, is it something specific about the Bengals matchup? They should be getting healthier in the secondary this week, or is it just, he's not super exciting, doesn't run? Why is he not in your top 10, Jamie? Well, I think the ceiling hasn't really been there since that week two game. And you've got to give the Bengals' defense some credit. The reason I still have him as a top 12 guy is because I think this game has the chance to get, as Pete Prisco would say, loose.
Starting point is 00:24:46 So I wouldn't be surprised if both of these offenses go toe-to-toe. There's really nobody ahead of him, sorry, just a final thought, that you drafted necessarily too far behind him except Kirk Cousins for Jamie, Daniel, well, for Heath there are more.
Starting point is 00:25:01 There's Jones, Carr, and Cousins ahead. I think also what, you know, when you talk about these guys, Daniel Jones, still Sam Darnold, maybe even Kirk Cousins, you have to make a roster move to add these guys. And so you have to weigh the pros and cons of how they're going to perform versus dropping somebody on your team that you may still want to stash. So, you know, if you feel like that strongly about Daniel Jones jones over rogers like i don't know heath if you would actually do this like if there's a player that you've been carrying that you think
Starting point is 00:25:30 has some still long-term potential would you actually make that switch for maybe one or two points i'm sure your projections is probably one or two points i can't imagine it's a huge difference so would you make that type of transaction to to go with the the slight edge at the quarterback position yeah it's um it's three points because I've got Jones projected quite a bit higher than ranked. But it would totally have to be a situation where there was someone on my bench that I didn't think somebody was going to pick up this week. And there are some guys like that on my bench on a lot of teams. I've got, especially in leagues where everybody's on waivers all the time,
Starting point is 00:26:04 a lot of times you miss on waivers all the time a lot of times you miss on waivers and you thought you were going to drop somebody and you don't end up dropping somebody till next week so yeah that's true okay let's get back to uh the 60 second part of this debate that's my bad here latavius murray much higher for jamie number what changing him no i'm not changing him i I don't like... I'm sorry. This is my call. It's okay. It's okay.
Starting point is 00:26:27 It's nothing against you. But yeah, so Latavius Murray, Jamie's got him as a number two running back. Heath has him 36th in non-PPR, 42nd in full PPR. And in full PPR, Jamie has Latavius Murray 27th. He's lowered in non-PPR too.
Starting point is 00:26:42 Hit refresh. Oh, damn it. All right, so where do you have Latavius Murray? Uh, flex closer to 30. All right. You're still higher on him. So just make a quick case. It's touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:26:54 I mean, I, you know, they're, they're a touchdown favorite at home. And so he's, as long as he's still their lead running back, I don't think he's going to have a huge game in terms of,'s not going for 100 in a touchdown. But if they're going to use one of their backs, just based on what the latest game showed us, I would anticipate him being north of 15 carries and have a chance to score. I think I'd probably have him a little bit higher if this game wasn't on. I'd just force him higher if this game wasn't the Monday night game. But I'm really terrified that Tysonyson williams just active on monday night he's
Starting point is 00:27:30 got one game this season with more than 10 carries zero games with 60 rushing yards and zero targets yeah yep okay that's latavius murray michael pitman are we disagreeing on this guy? Like, please? Yes. Okay, wait, hold on. I forgot. I got to get the music. Michael. Come on, Mixer. You suck.
Starting point is 00:27:51 Michael. Pittman. Heath, you've got him top 26. And Jamie in the 40s on Pittman. Go ahead, Heath. Monday night at Baltimore. Yeah, I just think that for me you know for me it's the volume he's got 32 targets over his last three games his best game of the season actually came
Starting point is 00:28:12 against the rams when he scored 20.3 fantasy points he has at least 11.9 in each of his last three games and i like the reason he doesn't rank higher in terms of fantasy production for the season is because he has not scored a touchdown yet this year. I'm almost always at this point in the year, higher on the guys with zero touchdowns. Jamie hit man, uh, Henry rugs,
Starting point is 00:28:36 six PPR points, Tyree kill for PPR points, Cortland Sutton, seven PPR points. Those are the number one receivers. The Ravens have faced so far this season, and this is what they're going to do to Michael Pittman. Also Kalief Raymond at 12. I think he's are the number one receivers the Ravens have faced so far this season. And this is what they're going to do to Michael Pittman also. Kalief Raymond had 12, I think.
Starting point is 00:28:48 He's not the number one guy that was playing receivers at the time. No wide receiver has scored more than 14 PPR fantasy points against Baltimore. Yeah, I mean, this is the guy they take away. It's going to be a rough game for him. But six wide receivers have scored 12 PPR fantasy points. Yeah, but that's not going to get him into the top 26. Really close. 12 to 14? I guess it could be close. Sure. Yeah, but that's not going to get him into the top 26. Be really close. 12 to 14?
Starting point is 00:29:06 I guess it could be close. Sure. Yeah, I'll take that. Jared Cook. Is this a dispute? Jamie's got him 15th. Heath has him 8th. Jared Cook
Starting point is 00:29:16 against Cleveland. Yeah, I've mostly just bought into Jared Cook as a starting tight end for now. And Jamie, not so much? No, I think he's, if you, again, it's like what I said about the quarterbacks. If you don't want to make a transaction to pick up Dawson Knox or, I'm sorry, Dalton Schultz or Dawson Knox, if they're still available, I would start Cameron Braid over him just with his matchup versus Cook's matchup. Yes, he's had some bad luck.
Starting point is 00:29:48 Clearly, he should have had a touchdown in week two, and then it's probably three decent games as opposed to just two. But this is still a position where you need to score touchdowns. He has one. And I think this is a game where, based on the opponent, the receivers get back going as opposed to Cook leading the way. Well, also Cleveland, it's hard to say. I mean, they gave up a ton of points to Kansas City,
Starting point is 00:30:12 but since then they've been, you know, one of the best defenses in football. Would you like the numbers on what they've given up the last three weeks? Yeah, I mean, sure. But it was Houston and Chicago, but then they go to Minnesota and they give up seven points. Very impressive. But yeah, go ahead.
Starting point is 00:30:22 Yeah, so Travis Kelsey destroyed them in week one. And since then, it's seven catches for 49 yards to three teams. For tight ends. Yeah, but... Right, but it's grain of salt, right?
Starting point is 00:30:33 It's Houston, Chicago, and that crazy game. I wouldn't be surprised if that's Jared Cook's stat line, though. Yeah. Yeah. All right.
Starting point is 00:30:41 We'll take a quick break when we come back. The marquee game of the week, Buffalo at Kansas City. It's not just a high-profile game. It's also one with a lot of interesting start or sit decisions. How do you approach the Buffalo wide receivers other than Stefan Diggs, Clyde Edwards-Zehler, Zach Moss?
Starting point is 00:30:55 Are they starts? Are they sits? Are they flexes? What is it? We will tell you when we come back on Fantasy Football Today. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one
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Starting point is 00:31:28 Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, Buffalo at Kansas City. Chiefs are three-point favorites, you said, Heath? Yes, last I saw, yes. It's moved back and forth between two and three. It's weird. I mean, Buffalo's been such a more complete team this year, but it's hard to pick against Kansas City in Arrowhead.
Starting point is 00:31:49 So the stats, basically, I mentioned it. Kansas City defense, second most points allowed, second most yards, most yards per play. Bills, fewest yards per play in the NFL on defense. They've given up the fewest points in the NFL. They have faced pretty crummy offenses for the most part. No hesitation with the quarter on defense. They've given up the fewest points in the NFL. They have faced pretty crummy offenses for the most part. No hesitation
Starting point is 00:32:08 with the quarterbacks here. Josh Allen was not great. Well, he scored 29 fantasy points in the playoffs. He had 88 rushing yards, but 18 fantasy points. Whatever. No hesitation with the quarterbacks, right?
Starting point is 00:32:19 No, he's the number one quarterback for me this week. Okay. The running backs are more interesting. Zach Moss or Clyde Edwards-Elair? Who would you rather start? Moss.
Starting point is 00:32:29 Moss, I think one spot higher. Okay. How come? Tougher opponent for Edwards-Elair. Moss is showing you that he's their short yardage guy, and he's probably their passing downs guy at this point, too. He's playing more than them in Singletary, and I think he scores again four games in a row.
Starting point is 00:32:50 This is, I think, more of me having Clyde Edwards' layer lower than where I had him last week than Moss. Moss is a little bit higher, but they're both outside of my top 24 running backs. I would like to be in a situation where I don't start either one of them. I do think Moss has a better chance of scoring a touchdown. Moss is obviously facing a much, much, much better matchup. Right, I think that's the key.
Starting point is 00:33:10 Moss is so interesting because you want players in this game going to be a lot of points. He's scoring the touchdowns, but there are right now a lot of interesting waiver wire running backs, right? You've got Alex Collins tonight. If Carson's out, you've got Damian Williams. You've got maybe Chuba Hubbard. Let's say McCaffrey's out. How many of those running backs would you start ahead of? And I'm
Starting point is 00:33:32 going to throw one more in there. Let's say Eli Mitchell's out and let's throw Sermon in there. How many of them would you start ahead of Zach Moss? Collins, Damian Williams, Chuba Hubbard against the Eagles and Trey Sermon. All of them but Sermon. All of them for me. Really? Okay. So definitely Collins if he starts over Moss, and that means over Clyde as well. Six running backs.
Starting point is 00:33:57 Well, let's see. Four running backs have scored 16 or more PPR fantasy points against the Chiefs, and a running back has gained 89 or more total yards in all four games, and that includes Kenneth Gainwell, but also Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Austin Eckler. They've faced some very tough opponents. Are you starting any Buffalo receiver other than Stephon Diggs? Not in a two-receiver league,
Starting point is 00:34:19 but in a three-receiver league, I would start both Beasley and Sanders. Yeah, I would start Beasley over Sanders, but they're both number three wide receivers. Beasley had two huge games, I think, against them last year. One was 4 for 45, but he scored. Okay. The other was like 80 yards, right, or something? Yes.
Starting point is 00:34:39 It was 4 for 45 and a touchdown in one game, and 7 for 88 in the other. Would you start Beasley over Zach Moss or Clyde Edwards-Ziller? In PPR, yes. Yeah. Okay. Dawson Knox.
Starting point is 00:34:59 How do you guys feel about him this week? I think, depending on your tight end situation, he's a borderline must start. I like him more in non PPR than PPR, but he's a top 12 guy in both. I mean, you see now the, the just everything continues to increase for him, you know? So last week was season high, eight targets, five catches. He's becoming a weapon. And I think just you saw what the Eagles tight ends did against the chiefs last week, and they should have had an even bigger game if they gave Goddard and Nertz the touchdowns that they got taken.
Starting point is 00:35:30 Oh yeah, totally. So it, uh, it, it shows that there's an opportunity there for them to lean on Knox and, and kudos to Josh Allen and the coaching staff. They are.
Starting point is 00:35:39 And kudos to you, Adam, uh, for, I do appreciate, I do appreciate that, but, uh,
Starting point is 00:35:44 you know, I certainly wasn't this high on him. Uh, I mean, what you said was, was, has saying it. I do appreciate that, but I certainly wasn't this high on him. Well, I mean, what you said has worked out. Attach yourself to a tight end in a good offense. That's scoring a lot of points, and that's what he is. Yeah. Now, look, they're not all going to be successful, clearly. This is quickly becoming a lesser version just because of the names, but maybe not the production of Tampa Bay.
Starting point is 00:36:06 You know, there's going to be a guy left out at some point on a week to week basis. But I mean, why would you not take the chances for a guy that scored three straight weeks, four times over that span with the way that this game can get. Kansas city has allowed a, sorry,
Starting point is 00:36:21 57 or more yards to four tight ends in four games and Njoku, Andrews, and then two Eagles guys. That would be a season high for Knox if he can get to 57 yards. Go ahead, Heath. I would just say, and it's really true in non-PPR as well, it's just between Gasicki, Dalton Schultz, and Dawson Knox, I have them separated by.04 points in the projections. They're all top 12 tight ends. One of those three is probably going to be good.
Starting point is 00:36:47 One of them is probably going to be a borderline number one, and one of them is probably going to completely stink. But the tiebreaker for me, and more philosophically, is, and I just want to get into this a little bit, because one of the things I talked about at the beginning of the season, if you want a true breakout tight end, a top five tight end, almost all of them are always first or second on the team in targets. That's not going to be Dawson Knox in all likelihood.
Starting point is 00:37:14 It might be Mike Isiki, so that helps. But I guess I'm just looking for a starter, not a true bust out or something. I mean, Jacoby Percet, Josh Allen, literally, he might throw for 200 more yards than Jacoby Percet. So that's kind of where I've changed philosophically, and that's why I would go with Knox over Gasicki. But Gasicki probably should have a higher target share. So it kind of flies in the face.
Starting point is 00:37:37 Yeah, I've got Knox over Gasicki in non, and Gasicki over Knox in PPR. Okay. Yeah. It's two competing philosophies for me, because the most important thing for tight ends is targets. Most important thing for anyone is targets. But like, you know, what is it? I don't think in non-PPR
Starting point is 00:37:51 the most important thing for tight ends is targets because their catch and yardage totals are all right. If you're not talking about one of the top six guys, because the lower half guys, their catches and targets are so low anyway, you're probably talking about the difference between three a game and four a game or four a game and five a game.
Starting point is 00:38:08 I don't think Dawson Knox's eight targets last week are an indication that he's going to get seven to eight targets on a weekly basis. If so, he's going to be a top six or seven tight end. The interesting thing I think that fantasy managers are going to start to have to decide, and it's Knox and Schultz, I guess, at this point, is because we're already getting these questions
Starting point is 00:38:24 about Kyle Pitts. Do I start Knox over Pitts? Do I start Schultz, I guess, at this point, because we're already getting these questions about Kyle Pitts. Do I start Knox over Pitts? Do I start Schultz over Pitts? And at least for me, it's hard to say no to Schultz, but it's getting hard to say no with Knox if there's another good game here. At what point do we get to that with Kittle in non-PPR? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:38:44 Yeah, might be a Trey Lance thing. We'll see how he-PPR. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Might be a Trey Lance thing. We'll see how he does this week. Yeah. You got to hope. I mean, look, he had 11 targets last week and did nothing with it.
Starting point is 00:38:54 Well, he should have had a touchdown, but Lance made a crappy throw. Right. But I mean, how many times are we going to say he should have, he should have, he should have? Yeah. He's a big fan of his quarterback play to a degree. Sure. Okay. So Mahomes is top three.
Starting point is 00:39:04 He's number one for Heath. We talked about Clyde Edwards either a start Ty tyree kill but are you avoiding tyree kill and dfs the bills allow the fewest fantasy points the wide receivers they are year after year great at taking away big plays it worked in one of two matchups against tyree kill last year but he also had a 71 yard catch in the playoff so are you avoiding tyree Hill and DFS? They're not on the main slate, so it's really just the individual game you're talking about. So, I mean, I probably won't play him, but it's a different discussion when it's just a one-game slate.
Starting point is 00:39:36 Right. Okay. Start, Kelsey. Last thing on this game. In the regular season matchup last year, the Bills played very conservatively and just dared the chiefs to run the ball and Clyde Edwards Elair had 26 carries for 161 yards in that game and Mahomes threw just 26 times and they won 26 17 the chiefs so is that any consideration here to boosting Clyde Edwards Elair what? What did they do in the other game?
Starting point is 00:40:06 Clyde was hurt, so he barely played, but Damian Williams had... Darryl. Darryl Williams had 13 carries, 52 yards, and a touchdown. And, yeah, Clyde also had a rushing touchdown. He only had six carries, though. I mean, game flow is going to matter a lot here. I would not be surprised if the Chiefs are chasing points. Okay. I just, and it
Starting point is 00:40:30 doesn't probably, we're not going to start him. I think he should be rostered. But I'm just so excited to see Josh Gordon. Yes, I was thinking the same thing. When you brought up the DFS, I was like, I wonder if this is a Josh Gordon game. Man, I hope that he plays and I hope he does. I hope he gets a moment in prime time in this game.
Starting point is 00:40:47 And that might affect how the Bills play as well. And you're not taking any flyers on Hardman or Robinson or Gordon, right? No. Okay. All right, sorry. Let's move on here. Chicago at Las Vegas. Stat of the game.
Starting point is 00:41:00 I want to give you a little hope, everybody, a little optimism. Allen Robinson right now has 13 catches for 149 yards and a touchdown. He had a four-game stretch in 2019 with 16 catches, 169 yards, and no touchdowns on 27 targets. So that's three more catches, 20 more yards, one fewer touchdown, three more targets. That was a four-game stretch. And he finished that season with 98 catches, 1,147 yards, and seven touchdowns. So, it's the only
Starting point is 00:41:29 four-game stretch he's had this year. It's been bad. He had a similar one in 2019. I just want to give you some hope. Don't drop him. Yeah, don't drop him. Yeah, okay. Starters at Justin Fields. Sit. Yeah, sit. Damian Williams or the running the running backs well i think you already answered this you'd start him over zach moss and clyde ebertsy there right yes i would okay anything that
Starting point is 00:41:57 concerns you here with damian williams against the raiders who give up the sixth most points to running backs? I mean, look, we've had how many scenarios now of the waiver wire running back being started? Three that I can think of? Chubbard, Mitchell, and Madison.
Starting point is 00:42:20 I don't think Sermon counts because he was rostered in many leagues, so he wasn't a waiver wire guy. But he's a backup, so if you want to make it the backup guy. But two have failed, essentially, right? Mitchell got hurt. I don't know if you want to say he failed, but Mitchell got hurt.
Starting point is 00:42:37 He failed. He had 17 carries in that game. Chuba Hubbard failed, right? Yes. 15 total touches, but failed and madison was amazing so which which does damian williams fall into i would hope he falls into the the ladder you know plays like madison but you know i guess the only difference would be is you're relying on inexperienced player versus experienced guy you know so the two rookies failed you hope the experienced guy delivers my my concern is that Khalil Herbert is closer to Peyton Barber than we're ranking him as my concern is that they don't
Starting point is 00:43:18 expand Damian Williams role fully and that he plays all the passing downs and and maybe a half the rushing downs but we're not ranking him as a top 18 running back he's certainly not my start he is one of the many many well i guess i'll start him running backs this week okay and the wide receivers you'd start him over alan robinson Darnell Mooney, right? Yep. Yeah, that's an easy one. Yeah, it's weird. The Raiders actually are giving up the fifth fewest points to wide receivers. They've given up some big tight end games the last two weeks.
Starting point is 00:43:55 I don't think that's going to happen this week. But, all right, we're going to be conservative with the Bears passing game here and sit Robinson and Mooney. Fair to say? Yes. Yes. But I think you should stash Mooney? Fair to say? Yes. But I think you should stash Mooney. He's still available in some leagues. Alright, Derek Carr is actually
Starting point is 00:44:12 a bit of a rankings dispute. I think he's 16th for Jamie and 11th for Heath. So Heath, you've got faith in him. You have him over Aaron Rodgers, for example. Top 12 for Derek Carr. Yeah, he's, I mean, he had one bad game, right? Against the Chargers in a tough road environment.
Starting point is 00:44:28 No, all joking aside, I don't think that this Bears defense is one that I necessarily have to avoid with quarterbacks. I still don't think that the Raiders are going to run the ball efficiently, so I think he's going to have good pass
Starting point is 00:44:44 volume. I think he gets going to have good pass volume. I think he gets a couple touchdowns, and he's a borderline starter. Josh Jacobs or Damian Williams? Jacobs for me. Williams in PPR, Jacobs in non. I think Carr is fine. You know, this is just, again, it's a numbers crunch thing.
Starting point is 00:45:04 You know, if I was projecting, I would have them all within a point. So Carr, Jano Jones, Sam Darnold, Burrow, that's 13, 14, 15, and 16 for me, a quarterback. Why Jacobs over Williams, Heath? Jacobs has been just awful as a rusher. Right. Well, his first game, we saw him get kind of bailed out because he scored two touchdowns. I don't think there's anybody challenging him for that role,
Starting point is 00:45:34 and I think that the Raiders will probably have more of those opportunities than the Bears do in this game. They've got a pretty significantly higher implied point total. And then the last game, we saw with Kenyon Drake in the doghouse and Peyton Barber hurt that he was heavily involved in the passing game and caught five passes. So I don't really think Josh Jacobs is going to share as much in this. I don't project that Josh Jacobs is going to share as much in this game as we were projecting at the beginning of the season because they are not treating Kenyon Drake right now like the guy they paid him $11 million. They
Starting point is 00:46:04 don't seem to be pleased with him. Would you start Robert Woods or a running back in this game? In full PPR? Woods, but that's just my blind faith in him. Yeah. I would probably start Jacobs, and I would like to mess with the projections enough to where it just changes that, because I would like to have the blind
Starting point is 00:46:28 faith in Robert Woods as well. I think this could be the game. Did you go through this with the words from McVay yesterday? Yeah, yeah, yeah. With the Sean Jackson? Yes. The quotes are exactly the same. Yeah. Vegas-wide
Starting point is 00:46:43 receivers, are you starting any of them renfro and ppr uh but only in a three receiver league he's not a two receiver guy yet two receiver league guy yet yeah i i think um because renfro is definitely my highest in ppr he's not my top 24 um but i might start him over everyone. I would start him in PPR with Damian Williams. I actually have Jacobs a little bit higher. I think it's fascinating, the half PPR and non-PPR. We probably don't talk about this enough. Renfro, Crowder, Beasley.
Starting point is 00:47:18 Jacoby Myers. Jacoby Myers. All these guys, Jalen Waddell. All these guys that have significant target volume but don't find the end zone regularly. Obviously, Renfro scored in the last two, so take that for what it's worth. What do you do with those guys?
Starting point is 00:47:35 I think that's where the roster percentages are misleading. I do with the waiver wire column every week. Pick these guys up. Well, what audience are we speaking to? Because you got to assume that those guys are rostered across the board in PPR, right? So, like, what do fantasy managers and non-PPR leagues do with those guys? You almost can't play them.
Starting point is 00:47:57 In non-PPR leagues, yeah. In half PPR, they're borderline guys. Yeah, I don't know if this matters to you, but the Bears have been awful against slot receivers. One of them was Cup, so fine. But Boyd had 73 yards. And Amonra St. Brown had 70 yards. And Beckham had 77 yards. And he played a decent amount in the slot in week three.
Starting point is 00:48:18 So we'll see. If Renfro comes through again, then that might really be something slot receivers can see. Right, but Renfro could have a good, like, 5 for 60. Wouldn't surprise me if that's his stat line. Doesn't score. So he's a good play in PPR as a third receiver. Yeah. So what does that do for your
Starting point is 00:48:33 non-PPR? I think that's probably a number 3 receiver in non-PPR is my guess. Alright, let me push us along here. Darren Waller. Next point? You think that's the number 3 receiver? No, in half PPR. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. No. In half PPR. In half, yes. 8.5. Yeah, in half PPR. In half, yes. Eight and a half. Yeah, start Darren Waller, and Jamie likes the Raiders DST.
Starting point is 00:48:50 Heath does not. Jamie has them eighth, I believe, and Heath 23rd. Green Bay at Cincinnati. All right, here's a trend to watch in this game. Packers were terrible in week one. Throw out week one. This is what they do. They've been very good in time of possession,
Starting point is 00:49:04 at least in two of the last three. They have one time of possession in all three of their wins, but 33 minutes and 25 seconds in one game, 34-41. And I have said on Monday's show, it's hard to find time of possession stats for like a full season. But
Starting point is 00:49:18 according to teamrankings.com, which I found to be a somewhat unreliable site, Green Bay led the NFL in time of possession last year, excluding overtime. So this is what they do. And what's relevant here is the last three teams to face them have had, as a team, combined 15 or 16 running back carries
Starting point is 00:49:40 for the entire team. So that's pretty relevant, I think, if you're trying, you know, what's Samajit Pirine going to do? He might not have that many carries, unless he gets all of them. But, yeah, alright, so let's start with him. Pirine's pretty interesting. If Mixon starts, you're starting Mixon. But if it's Pirine, Heath, how much confidence are you going to have in him against
Starting point is 00:49:58 Green Bay? I mean, he's for me in that same group of running backs we've been talking about. He's just at the back of it. So I would start Alex Collins over him. I would start Damian Williams over him. But he's still a borderline number two running back. I write right there with Trey Sermon, right there with Zach Moss.
Starting point is 00:50:22 I would hope that I had two running backs better to start than him, but I might not. Okay. And for the rest of the Bengals, so how much does T. Higgins matter for Burrow? Is he going to be the same in the rankings with or without Higgins? Probably for me. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:48 It's kind of a weird thing because we're not ranking Higgins, but I'm ranking Burroughs if Higgins is playing. Okay. Okay. So Jamie has him 14th and he has him 20th. The last three in the Packers wins, right? The last three games they played, every quarterback's thrown 36 to 40 passes. So I'm hoping, you know,
Starting point is 00:51:09 Packers score some points and force Burrow to throw because I don't think he's thrown 32 times as his maximum. Yeah, and no Alexander. That's big. Yeah, right, and no Jair Alexander. And despite not throwing more than 32 passes, Heath, Burrow scored 22 or more points in three games out of four. So I see potential here.
Starting point is 00:51:25 What about you? Well, there is potential. I think the problem is, and it goes with the stat you gave about time of possession, and the Bengals have been pretty much the exact opposite. They've been one of the slowest teams in terms of the number of plays they're running. I believe they're below 55 plays per game, which the average is like 62 or 63 this year. There's a real concern, especially with what the Packers did with AJ Dillon last week. If they just run AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones 30, 35 times, the Bengals may not have the ball enough. Well, I mean, Adam just told you though, that the opposing quarterbacks and Packers wins have still thrown the ball 36 times.
Starting point is 00:52:07 Yeah, 36 to 40 times. Well, I assume that they don't have the same run-pass split that the Bengals have had this year. They have. Sure, but they also just lost their starting running back potentially, too. So I don't think they're going to line up Samaj P. Ryan and say, hey, go win the game for us with the way Burrow played last week, too.
Starting point is 00:52:21 Right. So I think the thing that's encouraging for Burrow is you just saw them in a game against the jaguars where they were trailing 14 nothing at the half at home i'm gonna guess they're probably trailing logically speaking they're probably trailing against the packers knowing how the packers are going to most likely play and so if it's you know more of a no running game more on Burrow's plate. It might have been NextGenStats. I'm not sure who posted it last week about what Joe Burrow did in empty sets last week, that he was just phenomenal,
Starting point is 00:52:57 and that was with Uzama and not T. Higgins. Now imagine them going empty with those receivers and maybe Uzama also. I mean, there's a chance that burrow can be a top five quarterback this week wouldn't surprise me yeah i and again this is probably just me getting stuck on what has happened even the games where he's been behind the game they lost to the bears the game they were down 14 to nothing he threw 30 and 32 passes but that was with mixing though and in the game against the bears he had 20 mixing at 20 carries
Starting point is 00:53:24 i don't think samaj Mixon had 20 carries. I don't think Samadji Piran is going to get 20 carries. I also think this is the best run defense that they have faced this year. A hundred percent. You know, the Packers have just been really good
Starting point is 00:53:33 against the run. Well, maybe the Steelers. Yeah, maybe. The Packers are up there. You're right. It's close. All right, so anyway, that's Burrow,
Starting point is 00:53:42 differing opinions there. Jamar Chase, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins break it down for me Jamie how do we approach these three I'll ride the hot hand Chase is easy the number one in terms of the other two guys
Starting point is 00:53:53 Boyd over Higgins and non-PPR Boyd over Higgins and PPR Higgins over Boyd and non-PPR do we even start Boyd if Higgins plays he had one good game one terrible game with Higgins. In PPR, yes, because again, I think you're going to see this is Burrow's game to win. If you are counting on the Bengals to be competitive and to win this game, this is not Samaje Piran saving the Bengals.
Starting point is 00:54:18 This is Joe Burrow winning the game for them or keeping them competitive. As a result, they're going to have to throw, and I think all three receivers. This is what you wanted to see. This is the game you wanted to see from Joe Burrow. This is going to be probably 32 to 35 attempts. And the focus of targets going to those three guys.
Starting point is 00:54:35 And now Alexander's gone, again. Let me wrap this game up with this. If Higgins plays, I think, hopefully he will. Higgins and Boyd compared to Damian Williams, to Alex Collins, to obviously have to start Collins over Higgins plays, I think, you know, hopefully he will. Higgins and Boyd compared to Damian Williams, to Alex Collins, to obviously have to start Collins over Higgins, but to Damian Williams, to Samaje Pirine, would you start the wide receivers or the running backs?
Starting point is 00:54:57 In non-PPR, I would start Collins and probably Williams over both of those guys. In PPR, I'll start the receivers. I'd probably do the same. I do think the receivers will probably be all the number three wide receivers for me if Higgins plays. I don't think any of them will be in my top 20 for sure. Chase Stewart or just the other two?
Starting point is 00:55:15 I would probably have all three of them because I don't know what Chase's target share is going to be when the other two are there and he's barely done it mostly on big plays and not on targets. If Higgins doesn't play, would you start C.J. Uzama? If Higgins doesn't play,
Starting point is 00:55:30 would I start C.J. Uzama? Probably not, unless it's a tight end premium league. Cool. Yeah, there's just too many, like, Knox, Schultz, Kosicki, all those guys would be better. Alright, next game, Colts and Ravens. Colts are 1-3. They have been terrible defensively,
Starting point is 00:55:47 and they've allowed 11 passing touchdowns, which is tied for the most in the NFL. All right, anyway, hopefully a big spot here. We did this game. We did this game. Start Jonathan Taylor, start Mark Andrews, go back to the rankings dispute if you want to hear about Michael Pittman or Latavius Murray.
Starting point is 00:56:04 Well, what about... But I think... Okay, then let's at least talk about the Colts running backs here. We just did. No. But Taylor's only had one game with more than 64 yards. It was against the Crappy Dolphins. I mean, how confident are you in him this week?
Starting point is 00:56:20 This is one of those like him, don't love him guys. You start him because you almost feel like you have to. I don't, I'm not going to get cute. I can certainly understand if people want to and start Damian Williams or Alex Collins over Jonathan Taylor, because it's probably not going to be pretty unless he scores or is involved in the passing game. And neither has been consistent with that scenario. So look, it's, it's tough to say that the Ravens don't key in on stopping Jonathan Taylor and stopping Michael Pittman and say,
Starting point is 00:56:47 okay, Mo Ali Cox, you had a two-touchdown game, go beat us. You know, I mean, let Carson Wentz go beat you. This is just going to be an ugly game for the Colts. Okay. How about Naeem Hines, though? I mean, two good games. I noticed that 12 of his 14 catches have come in the second and fourth quarters. So that's something. What do you think about Naeem Hines this week?
Starting point is 00:57:09 He's not a bad PPR flex. Obviously he's going to be behind P. Ryan and all the fill-in running backs and all that. Would you start? I know Heath's answer. It's Pittman. Jamie, would you start Hines or Pittman? I would start Pittman because there's more consistent targets. Okay.
Starting point is 00:57:27 Lamar Jackson, Dave has him 12th, Jamie 5th, Heath 3rd, and I'll just say he is on pace for 4,308 passing yards and 1,116 rushing yards in 16 games. He is shattering his previous 16-game paces, but the touchdowns just haven't been there. So that's why we keep saying by low on Lamar Jackson.
Starting point is 00:57:49 Latavius Murray. How can we get Lamar Jackson this week? I think this could be just like a 40-point game. You know what I mean? Yeah. Latavius Murray is already discussed. And yeah. Okay, Marquise Brown, last one. Stud, good. is already discussed. And yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:07 Okay, Marquise Brown, last one. Stud, good. What do you think about Marquise Brown? He's played three Monday night football games in his career and has four touchdowns. Ooh, nice stats. That's out of the game. I mean, it is Hollywood. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:20 Gosh, the Colts defense has been so bad. They, yeah. I'm excited about him. Imagine if he had scored against Detroit. Yeah. He'd probably be a top five wide receiver this year, I'm guessing. I don't know what he is right now, but he would have a touchdown in every game. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:37 I would start him over DeAndre Hopkins this week. Same. I thought you were the low guy. I would start him over Mark Cooper this week. All right. Dave has him in the top five ten let me see uh yeah you guys have him closer to 24 dave has him ninth uh no he's in the teens for me okay gotta hit refresh my bad start mark andrews and baltimore's dst is top five they had five sacks last week. Keep it going.
Starting point is 00:59:06 So I don't understand. If Marquise Brown has a top 10 day, how's Lamar Jackson 12th? Well, where do you have Devontae Adams? Yeah, but Aaron Rodgers doesn't run. Okay. That's the big difference. But he's the old. But I guess, I mean, he's one.
Starting point is 00:59:21 I don't know. Look, you can rank someone 12th and still think he's going to have a good game. I think that guy does what, like, I'm assuming Dave's expecting, I don't know. Look, you can rank someone 12th and still think he's going to have a good game. I think Dave's too low. I'm assuming Dave's expecting that's like 120 in a touchdown day. I think Dave's too low, but I guess you could say for Dave that
Starting point is 00:59:35 Marquise Brown has probably had one or two finishes, at least in the top 15, and Lamar Jackson's only had one really good game. I think Lamar Jackson is currently in the top 15 for the season. And he's in the top 15 and Lamar Jackson's only had one really good game. I think Lamar Jackson is currently in the top 15 for the season. And he's in the top 15 in Dave's rankings. He's 12th. But what I'm saying is Jackson's only had one really good
Starting point is 00:59:51 fantasy game. One game with more than 20 points and that's with Brown having three good games. Yeah, I guess it's fair. I'm just curious. Yeah, I don't think this will continue, but I think Marquise Brown ranks higher at wide receiver than Lamar Jackson does at quarterback right now. And that's what Dave has. I mean, yeah, start Lamar Jackson does at quarterback right now. And that's what Dave has. I mean, yeah, it's start
Starting point is 01:00:08 Lamar Jackson. Cleveland at Los Angeles at the Chargers. Stat of the game. This is interesting. Despite facing McLaurin, the Dallas wide receivers, Kansas City, the Raiders wide receivers, the Chargers have not allowed more than 81 yards to a receiver. That's not, I mean, 81's a good game,
Starting point is 01:00:24 but that's the most. McLaurin and Tyreek than 81 yards to a receiver. That's not, I mean, 81's a good game, but that's the most. McLaurin and Tyreek Hill had 56 to 62 yards. Amari Cooper, 24 yards. Surprisingly, I don't know if it's so surprising, but the Chargers have been great against wide receivers. Start or sit, Odell Beckham? Sit. Yeah, you know my answer.
Starting point is 01:00:43 Well, he has a 25% target share in his last two games. Well, that should be at least five passes. There is some news. No, it's been, what, 16 targets in two games, I think, right? There is some news in regards to the Browns. Rappaport just tweeted that Mayfield has been wearing, who has been wearing a shoulder harness, suffered a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder against the Texans.
Starting point is 01:01:01 No surgery is needed, but he's clearly not 100%. That's interesting. I just feel like Beckham, okay, if Beckham didn't play last week, if we didn't have that horrible game at Minnesota, we'd probably be starting him at least as a number three receiver because he had something like five for 77 in week three. He is the primary target. Baker just missed him.
Starting point is 01:01:22 He could have had a decent game last week. So I don't think we have to run and hide from Beckham. I mean, the secondary is really good, and they're doing it without Chris Harris on the field. You know, he's been hurt. So I just think it's, you know, you're hoping for him to score. Five for 77 is replicable. I don't think that's hard for Beckham to do, but, you know, you have a two-game sample size,
Starting point is 01:01:44 one where he got to that level and one where he didn't. Plus, he had a 10-yard carry in that game, too. If you're just looking at his fantasy stats, it's 13 PPR points in that game. I think, Adam, if you came into the year optimistic about Odell Beckham, you still have reason to be optimistic. I came
Starting point is 01:02:00 into the year with him right around wide receiver 40, and so there's not been anything to change my mind. Except Landry absence is just giving him a bigger target share. That's all it is. And that's why I am making the case for him. So would you start him over, say, Cole Beasley? No.
Starting point is 01:02:16 No. Would you start him over? I guess in non-PPR, you can make a case for it because there's more touchdown potential for Beckham. How about Jalen Waddle or Beckham? I like Waddle better in PPR. I will just, like, to clarify, I have
Starting point is 01:02:32 it ranked Allen Robinson, Cortland Sutton, then Odell Beckham back to back to back. Alright. Sit Baker, start Chubb. Any hesitation at all on Kareem Hunt? None. Okay. How about Kareem Hunt or Alex Collins
Starting point is 01:02:46 if Carson's out? None. All right. Okay. Yeah, this is not a good run defense. And sit the Cleveland tight ends. Justin Herbert,
Starting point is 01:02:56 so a little bit lower than I expected for Herbert. Top 12, but 9th for Jamie, 10th for Dave. Where are you, Heath, on Herbert? 13, I believe. 13. Yeah, that surprised me a little bit.
Starting point is 01:03:09 It's a tough matchup. It is. Good defense. And one of the lowest, I think one of the lowest over-unders of the week, too. Not the lowest, but one of them. All right. So who might you start over Herbert that you could conceivably have?
Starting point is 01:03:24 Herbert and Hurts? My three streamers, I would. So who are they? Jones, Cousins, Carr. What about Jalen Hurts? He's ahead of them, right? Yeah. Jamie, would you start Jones, Cousins, or Carr over Justin Herbert?
Starting point is 01:03:43 I would not, but I certainly see where Heath is coming from. I don't want to say Herbert's matchup proof because I don't think anybody is, but I just don't think this Browns defense is going to slow him down to the level that he's worse than those guys. Browns defense is maybe going to slow Austin Eckler down a little bit. You're definitely going to start Eckler. He's so involved in the passing game. But no running back has more than 43 rushing yards
Starting point is 01:04:07 against the Browns. That is Chiefs, Texans, Bears, and Vikings. No running back has more than 43 rushing yards. Longest carry is 16 yards by a running back against Cleveland. But start Eckler. And then any hesitation on Keenan Allen and or Mike Williams? Zero. I'm starting them.
Starting point is 01:04:28 Okay. And Jared Cook, we already debated. You must have Herbert, though, projected close to the streamers, right? Because you like him. I'm assuming you like those other guys, too. Well, you said you like the other receivers. They're all right in the same range. So, again, I guess I'll ask you the same question.
Starting point is 01:04:43 You wouldn't make a roster move, though, to pick up the streamers over Herbert, right? Not unless I had somebody that I didn't care if they were on my team anymore. I wouldn't drop somebody good. All righty. Jared Cook, we already debated. Check out the 62nd rankings disputes.
Starting point is 01:04:58 Heath is just kind of buying into him as a low-end starter. Jamie thinks... Oh, I think he's a low-end starter, but he's not a top-12 guy for me. 15th for Jamie, something like that. 8th-ish for Heath. Both of them probably feel similarly to Jared Cook, but that's how
Starting point is 01:05:13 we feel about a lot of tight ends every week. Which DST do you like better? And are they starts? No. Chargers over Browns for me this week. Yeah, I got the chargers as a start okay i think we have three more games tennessee is at jacksonville stat of the game is lavisca chenault's a dot first three games it was uh 2.8 5.4 and 6.5 week four it was 14.6 that's you know that's very high but it's better than just
Starting point is 01:05:46 being like jujus miss schuster basically so yeah break this game down here derrick henry is start right would you guys should i go over my tweet did you see my tweet last night this is one of my favorite things because i think that you're talking about, in my opinion, the best running back in football, and it all started against this team in 2018. Since that Thursday night game in 2018, and including that game, Derrick Henry has played 39 games.
Starting point is 01:06:20 He has 881 carries for 4,662 yards and 44 rushing touchdowns in 39 games per 16 games. Like in 39 games, his 16 game pace is 1,913 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. Can I do one more? Yeah. Since the start of 2019, he has 4,077 rushing yards. No other running back in the NFL 4,077 rushing yards. No other running back in the NFL has 3,000 rushing yards. Nick Chubb is second.
Starting point is 01:06:53 Nick Chubb averages 91 yards per game. If Nick Chubb did that for 12 more games and Derrick Henry didn't play, Derrick Henry would still have more rushing yards than Nick Chubb. It's amazing. It's just a career-changing game. Maybe he would have been the same, but everything just seemed to change that night against Jacksonville. Okay, Tannehill, would you start him if A.J. Brown plays? Yes.
Starting point is 01:07:20 Like over Daniel Jones and Darnold? No. All right. Is age... Yeah, probably not. Okay. Your favorite wide receiver would be Josh Reynolds. Heath said earlier.
Starting point is 01:07:35 Any interest at all in Anthony Ferkser? No. Trevor Lawrence, start or sit? Tennessee has just been awful. No. If you are stuck, and clearly there's a lot of streamers out there, so you probably aren't stuck, but I would not be surprised if this is similar to his week one outing.
Starting point is 01:07:56 Which was 25 points on 51 pass attempts at Houston. James Robinson is top 10 in both formats, so firing him up. He's actually been somewhat of a strength for Tennessee. They've been decent against the run. Decent. Thumbs up for James Robinson. Okay.
Starting point is 01:08:12 And then which wide receiver do you like better for the Jaguars, Chenault or Jones? Still Jones, but Chenault is right behind him. I think they're both number threes. Like they're sitting on each other's laps. Oh. How am I not getting it immediately? Why does it even take me?
Starting point is 01:08:32 I got another one in there too that you didn't catch. What'd you say? Thumbs up. Oh, geez, dude. Oh, wow. All right. Tennessee's DST.
Starting point is 01:08:44 Don't start them even though they're facing jacksonville uh i'll just finish up here would you start marvin jones or odell beckham don't would you stop asking odell beckham questions all right well i know we're gonna get a lot of them marvin jones or all right here's here's a fun one marvin jones or cadarious if Shepard and Slayton are out. Jones. Jones. Okay. Let's talk about Denver and Pittsburgh. How many players in this game would you start over Odell Beckham?
Starting point is 01:09:16 Deontay Johnson. Three running backs. No way. No way. I would start Beckham over both Broncos running backs. Okay. Come on. Like, yeah.
Starting point is 01:09:32 The Broncos running backs are not reliable. They haven't been good. If Melvin Gordon's out, I'd start Javante. Oh, that's a different story. Yes, of course. But if Gordon plays, you know, they haven't been good. They haven't been reliable. Wait, are we talking about Odell Beckham
Starting point is 01:09:46 right now? I mean, he's got 16 targets in two games. If he's going to get eight targets, he's going to be better, I think, than Javante Gordon. I mean, Melvin Gordon's like the number 16 running back in fantasy. It's a 70-yard touchdown. It is interesting, though, Heath, because you're banking on targets with Michael Pittman, but you're not banking on targets with Beckham.
Starting point is 01:10:02 Well, Michael Pittman's done it for three weeks, and Beckham's basically done it for one. Seven and nine. If he's getting seven targets a week, that's not good enough for Odell Beckham. Well, he's getting eight. Well, he had nine and then seven. That's what I'm saying.
Starting point is 01:10:16 Pittman had 12, 12, eight. I think Beckham's a better player than Michael Pittman. Of course he is. I don't have any idea. Heath doesn't think that. I don't know. Heath doesn't believe it. That's fine.
Starting point is 01:10:29 I mean, it's fine to doubt Odell Beckham. In terms of, I guess, in terms of target share, Beckham's target share is the same as Pittman's, right? Oh, I think so, yes. It's just that Pittman's team is going to throw more passes. Yeah, that's for sure. Right, but I guess this is a better matchup than what Pittman's facing.
Starting point is 01:10:48 Is it, though? The Chargers, like you said, I mean, their fifth-fewest points to wide receivers? No, that's the Raiders. Chargers have been very good against receivers. So have the Ravens. Yeah, they have. I don't know if it's much.
Starting point is 01:10:57 They've both been very good. Anyway, Denver at Pittsburgh. Sit the quarterbacks. We're sitting Melvin Gordon and Javante Williams, though, right? If we can. Yes. I'm flexing Gordon. Deontay Johnson, you have to start.
Starting point is 01:11:12 Last week was the... I don't know if this is something to keep an eye on, but last week was the first time that Williams played more snaps. He had three catches, too. Two games in a row with three catches. Yeah, I like Williams better than Gordon. I just don't know if Gordon's healthy. Pittsburgh is not allowed a touchdown to a running back yet.
Starting point is 01:11:27 They've been okay against running backs. Sixth fewest points, but they've been solid. We're trying to sit Sutton. Are you nervous about Noah Fant? You guys have him ranked in the top eight. A Drew Locke just stinks. I mean, he does. It feels a little icky.
Starting point is 01:11:43 I really want to start Dawson Knox over Noah Fant. Talk me out of it. I would start him over Noah Fant in non-PPR. And just so you all know, I don't actually have that decision to make. So people think that I just use this show to set my own lineup. But I'm just saying I would rank – I want to rank Knox higher than Fant. So talk me out of it, I guess, is the better way to say it. But all right.
Starting point is 01:12:07 Anyway, sit, Ben. You guys have Najee Harris top 12. Denver is suffocating running backs right now. Harris is doing nothing as a rusher. Is this a trap game? Does this look like it could be a totally crap game for Najee Harris? It can absolutely be a total crap game for him. But how are you getting
Starting point is 01:12:26 away from him at this point with what his role is in the passing game and the fact that he did get his first rushing touchdown last week. He can still score. Yeah, it is hard to get away from him. You wouldn't start Alex Collins over him? No. How about Kareem Hunt or Najee Harris? Still Harris.
Starting point is 01:12:42 I'd still go Harris. Deontay Johnson, the only one we're going to start for Pittsburgh? Only receiver? He'd be the only receiver I'd feel comfortable starting this game.
Starting point is 01:12:52 And both DSTs are top six. New England and Houston, stat of the game. The Patriots and the Texans have the same record. There's your stat of the game. All right. Damian Harris
Starting point is 01:13:04 or Najee Harris? Najee, but it's close to non-PPR. Yeah, Najee. Is there anyone that, who do you love in this game? Do you love anyone? Damian Harris. I love Damian Harris in non-PPR. I mean, they're nine-point favorites on the road.
Starting point is 01:13:28 Yeah. If there's not a game script for this guy, I don't know what one is. Yeah, well, he had 16 carries for 62 yards and a touchdown in their only win. He had 23 carries in week one. Do you have any interest in Brandon Bolden? Even in that win against the Jets, a big win,
Starting point is 01:13:42 James White had six catches in that game. Any interest in Bolden? 12%? Flex and PPR. I think the difference is that you knew White was going to get probably four to five carries, which is kind of where he's been. I don't know if they do that with Bolden. You're totally relying on him to be
Starting point is 01:13:59 six catches. The only reason I say six catches is because that's what White was every game. That's what Bolden was in his one game so you know he's got to get get to that number but we'll see i mean you know there's always the goal line opportunity for him if he's in the game uh it's just it's just so unreliable though to say he's going to be a consistent factor yeah and i you know if you were to tell me that the texans competitive in this game, I would love Jacoby Myers, but I just don't see him being competitive. Jacoby Myers or Brandon Cooks? Cooks.
Starting point is 01:14:31 Cooks. Jacoby Myers or Samaje Pirine? Pirine and non-PPR Myers and PPR. Yeah. Start any tight ends in this game? Specifically New England's? Henry if you're desperate. Yeah. Start any tight ends in this game? Specifically New England's? Henry, if you're desperate. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:14:50 This is a good match of second most fantasy points to tight ends. And that's more or less starter sit for the AFC home games. It's just such an uninspiring game because of how these two offenses have performed. It wouldn't surprise me
Starting point is 01:15:03 if they... Okay. Now we saw Mac Jones. we know we can trust him to complete a high percentage of passes. Now let's open things up against a bad defense. So maybe they do. But nothing that you can rely on. Cool.
Starting point is 01:15:19 Again, Heath way too low on the Patriots DST. Has him fourth. They should be first. Jamie's got it right. Jamie's got him first. Good for you, Jamie. Who's first for you? I think the Ravens. Correct. I'm pretty impressed that I knew that.
Starting point is 01:15:35 Good job. Alright, that's it, everybody. My number one what? Kicker. Who's your number one kicker? Always Justin Tucker. I don't even screw up. I think it's probably Justin Tucker. It's it for everyone.
Starting point is 01:15:49 It's Justin Tucker. Who's your number two kicker, guys? Might be Tyler Bass. You got it. Maybe Harrison Butker? No, he's fourth. Way too low on Butker. You have Ryan Suckup.
Starting point is 01:16:03 Second overall. You know, I was going to do, when we did the draft-a-thon, way too low on Butker. You have Ryan Suckup second overall. Okay. You know, I was going to do, when we did the draft-a-thon, I had trivia questions for our guests. I was going to do a question just name four punters, but I didn't want to
Starting point is 01:16:15 embarrass anybody because I don't know how many people can name four NFL punters. I don't know that I could name four NFL punters. I know the names, but I don't know that I could
Starting point is 01:16:23 just like reel off four punters. No. Can names, but I don't know that I could just reel off four punters. Can you? At home? Play along. We'll be back tomorrow with a recap of Thursday Night Football and starter sit for the NFC home games and some punter analysis.

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