Fantasy Football Today - Start or Sit (AFC), Advanced Stats, Injuries (11/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 19, 2020

Week 11 RBs and WRs are much better than what we had in Week 10. Get ready for what could be another high-scoring week. Let's start with the big news (2:55) about Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, Christian McCaffrey, Kenny Golladay and more and then Jamey and Heath tell you who they love this week (8:40) and who to avoid (12:50). Are we going back to Mike Davis after four straight disappointing games as a starter? Can you trust Tom Brady this week? ... More news and notes (15:00), a story about Jamey's Guillotine League (19:04), rankings disputes (25:10) on Ryan Tannehill, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans and Mike Gesicki, advanced stats with Jacob Gibbs (32:00) and the Startometer (34:30) for TEN-BAL, MIA-DEN and NYJ-LAC ... Start or Sit for Patriots-Texans (40:00), Lions-Panthers (46:00), Steelers-Jaguars (52:50), Titans-Ravens (1:00:25), Chiefs-Raiders (1:06:00), Dolphins-Broncos (1:11:23), Jets-Chargers (1:14:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] You can also download and subscribe to the full-length Fantasy Football Today podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-podcast/id261735167 Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what I've done with this spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play! Off to the races! Touchdown! Oh, he's done it again!

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. We are ready for Week 11. What's going on, everybody? Welcome to Fantasy Football Today on this Thursday morning. Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg and Heath Cummings. This episode is sponsored by Express. Express is all new and all about you with a fresh assortment of casual, versatile, and super comfortable styles. Find out more about Express and their exclusive offer later in the show. Check out my Express gear, baby. Rocking this sweater. It's cold out. Express has some good winter stuff, so

check it out. Can I give you a good Express story or do you want to save it for later? Save it for later. All right. Also, Jamie, be prepared to talk about your guillotine league because what happened to your guillotine league was insane. You just reminded me. After 2 o'clock'clock i gotta set a reminder to go for the

free-for-all okay all right yeah looking forward to that um now we got a lot of news tyler lockett expected to play chris carson not expected to play so carlos hyde is uh going to be interesting tonight hi heath how are you I'm really good, Adam. I feel fantastic. How about your Knicks? Obi! That guy, Obi Toppin,

he lives 10 minutes away from me. He's a Westchester guy. Yeah. That's cool. How about the running backs this week? Here's a little reference point for everybody. This is in non-decimal scoring. So if you're in decimal scoring, you want to add like a point to all these. How many points do you need to be the number 24 running back each of the last three weeks?

Okay, we've had buys each of the last three weeks. So similar to this week. Full PPR? Non-PPR and full PPR. I'm just going to guess. Oh, you're guessing. Oh, I was going to say. Okay, go ahead.

Yeah. Nine and 12. Close. About eight and 10. So in non-PPR, it's been numbered. RB24 has had eight, seven, and eight fantasy points

the last three weeks. In full PPR, 10, 10, and 10 fantasy points each of the last three weeks. full PPR, 10, 10 and 10 fantasy points. Each of the last three weeks, Mike Davis, by the way, he has scored 11, eight,

eight and eight PPR fantasy points in each of his last four games without Christian McCaffrey. So, you know, he's in a, he's an interesting running back. We're going to talk about him in a moment. Damian Harris is fun.

Is the Michael P Ryan going to get enough work to be good against the chargers. Is the Michael P. Ryan going to get enough work to be good against the Chargers? Is Kalen Balazs going to get the work that he needs? Is Matt Breida going to eat into Savan Ahmed? All this coming up today. But let's start with the big news, guys.

Thursday night, Tyler Lockett expected a play. Is he a must start, Jamie? Yes, he's a must start guy. I mean, Mr. Optimistic Pete Carroll said or there was a report that Lockett was doing so much, Pete Carroll had to tell him to slow down. I don't know what that means because it was a walkthrough,

but in any event, if he's out there, you got to play him. We saw what this game was for him last time. If they're going to put Patrick Peterson on DK Metcalf, you got to trust that he's going to get his usual allotment of targets. So I have Lockett in several leagues I'm starting. Okay, and then what about Carlos Hyde? I have to check his roster percentage. Last night it was 26%.

Yeah, go pick him up. Yeah, so what do you think about, is he going to split with Alex Collins? He's 32% rostered. Is he a must-start guy? Where are you ranking him if Chris Carson's out, which is what's expected tonight? I don't think he's a must-start guy, but he is my favorite running back in this game in non-PBR.

The Cardinals, to me, without three of their starting defensive linemen in this game. And I just got a sneaky suspicion Seattle's going to run the ball a little bit more than they have over the last few weeks. That would be a wise plan against this defense, the way they're undermanned. I think Hyde will share a little bit with DJ Dallas and or Travis Homer because of the passing game, but I expect him to get most of the work in the running game. I think I have him projected for 14 carries,

13, 14 carries, 60, 70 total yards and a touchdown. Put it this way. He didn't start the game against the Cardinals in week seven, and he had 18 total touches in that game. He had 15 carries. It was an overtime game, but he left in overtime. So I would imagine that the fact that he's practicing in full, he's going to be the guy. So I wouldn't worry about Alex Collins.

I wouldn't worry about DJ Dallas. I know Travis Homer's banged up too. But if Carlos Hyde's out there, treat him like you would treat Chris Carson. Not the same production, but how you would start him. So would anybody start

Carlos Hyde over Ezekiel Elliott? I'm not there yet, but it wouldn't shock me if Hyde is better. How about the waiver wire guys? Naeem Hines, Kalen Balazs, Sivan Ahmed, etc. He's behind, Vaughn Ahmed, et cetera.

He's behind all of them for me, but again, I wouldn't be surprised if he's better. It's just, you know, we're, we're looking at a situation where, um,

you know, those guys are in great spots. I mean, they really are, you know, those, those running backs have some really interesting and exciting matchups. You know,

the one you can make a case for is, is maybe Ahmed just because Matt Breida practiced on, on Wednesday. Yeah. You want to, maybe Ahmed, just because Matt Breida practiced on Wednesday. You want to just be concerned about it, but I can't imagine that they're not going to treat Ahmed like they have been, or like they did last week at least, where he's the feature guy. Yeah, I would start him over Melvin Gordon.

I'd start him over Kenyon Drake. I'd start him over Jonathan Taylor. Start him over Daryl Henderson, all the Ravens. Ronald Jones? No. I would start him over Ronald Jones, yes. Okay. All right.

So he's going to be a top 24 guy in the rankings. Check out the latest rankings. Don't fall for the Ronald Jones 98-yard touchdown run and say he's all of a sudden back to being awesome again. Tough matchup. Much tougher, yeah. Okay, Devontae Adams not committing to playing this week. Fingers crossed on that one there at Indianapolis.

Joe Mixon mispracticed. All right, Giovanni Bernard or Carlos Hyde? Team Gio. Yeah, Gio. I mean, this is the risk you run because if Mixon does return to practice, then you're obviously going to be upset that you didn't play Carlos Hyde,

so take that into account. But if we get to the end of the day Thursday and Zach Taylor is still, he's day-to-day. We're all day-to-day. That you could probably feel comfortable if Joe Mix is not playing once again. They are getting their offensive line back though for the Bengals. Two guys coming back.

Christian McCaffrey likely out. Teddy Bridgewater limited in practice. Between Bridgewater, Stafford, Drew Locke could come down to Sunday for the three of them. Kenny Galladay was back at practice. Heath, do you expect him to play at this point? Is it too early to tell? And what would that mean for Stafford

if Galladay practiced? And by the way, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola mispracticed if Galladay played, rather. What would that mean for Stafford, and what are you thinking right now? It would be a great thing, obviously, for Stafford, but I would like to see Stafford hear a foot or hear that he threw a football. I don't need to see it. Um, but I think he was at practice yesterday and just didn't do anything as long as he gets to the Friday and like Ben Roethlisberger last week, throw 40 or 50 passes. Then I'll feel

good about him and probably start him Galladay. It's, I think it's still too early to know, but it's a great, great sign that he was practicing on Wednesday. He would be a number two wide receiver, assuming he's active. How much of a kick in the junk would it be if Galladay's back and Stafford doesn't play? Just get everybody healthy, man. Let's go. Yeah, Galladay was certainly usable last year with David Blau, and it would probably be Chase Daniel this week if Matt Stafford can't play.

So that's the big news. We got more news coming up later. We'll tell you who we love. We'll tell you who to avoid. Make sure you're listening to Fantasy Football today in five. Every Thursday morning, you're going to get Dave's favorite player prop for the Thursday night game. He had gotten six or seven in a row.

But last week, that streak ended. But he's trying to pick it up again. So check out his player prop list. We give you all the injury updates and it's five minutes of fantasy football advice every single morning for you. Starter sit pregame chat today on Twitch at 4 p.m. Eastern until five 30. He's coming on today to join us with Frank and Chris.

So 4 p.m. We'll see you there on Twitch, twitch.com slash FF today. Usually Thursday is the AFC home games, Friday the NFC home games. I move things around a little bit to adjust for the schedules and sometimes there are a lot more AFC or NFC home games. So today is mostly AFC home games. For whatever reason, I have Detroit and Carolina in the notes today. Just a heads up, I doubt anyone cares, but I did go a little out of order on today's show. You'll see that later. Let's go with

a player you love. Jamie, who's the star of the week? You mentioned it. Mike Davis. The matchup is amazing. I was hoping we'd be done with Mike Davis, that this would be Christian McCaffrey, but as we all know, he's not going to play. You just look at what Detroit has been

against the run. just their last three weeks, five running backs have scored at least 17 PPR points, nine touchdowns over those three games to running backs, nine total and 21 catches to those running backs in those three games. So Davis has been, like you said, Adam, you mentioned it 11, and then three straight eights of games, of production PPR in the games that McCaffrey missed. It should be one of the games like we saw in the first three when he averaged 24 PPR points per game over that span,

the first three starts he made without McCaffrey there. I think it'll be close to that. He should be fantastic. Okay, Heath, what do you got? Player you love? Can I just say a team that I love? Yeah. But no, I can say Ben Roethlisberger,

but it's the Pittsburgh Steelers. And this could be a fool me once, fool me twice type of situation. But I talked about earlier in the year, like a month ago, how it didn't look like the same Steelers under Ben Roethlisberger as offensive coordinator team, because he was only throwing like 32, 33 pass attempts per game. And especially when they had a lead, the pass rate was way down. The past two weeks,

they've played the Cowboys and Bengals and thrown it over 40 times jacksonville's sneakily been kind of good most of the year against the run and pittsburgh is really struggling running the football jacksonville has no hope of stopping the steelers passing game they can do whatever they want so i am pretty excited about big ben and basically all of the steelers pass catchers i still have james connor ranked as a top 12 running back. It feels kind of silly with what he's done over the last three weeks, but I'm just going to stick with him for one, kind of like the Michael Thomas situation. I'm just going to stick with him for one more week.

I mentioned some running backs at the top of the show. That would be tough calls. And Conner, I forgot to mention. But the last time I sat here and talked about how good Jacksonville's run defense was, they faced Joe Mixon and he was struggling and he went off for his by far best game, 25 carries, 151

yards, two touchdowns, plus a receiving touchdown. The way it's worked for Jacksonville, their first three games of the year, they had a good run defense. The second three games of the year, they had a terrible run defense. And their last three games of the year, they had a terrible run defense. And their last three games of the year, no running back has had more than 46 rushing yards. No running backs average more than 3.75

yards per carry on a minimum of eight carries. It's good again. And here comes James Conner, who's struggling more than maybe anyone. I mean, he's been horrible his last three games. He's averaging like 2.8 yards, 2.84 yards per carry his last three games. He's been really 2.8 yards, 2.84 yards per carry

his last three games. He's been really bad. And two of those games were against Dallas and Cincinnati. So first question, Mike Davis or James Conner? Mike Davis. Mike Davis, but you're getting now the, it could be a squeaky wheel game coming for James Conner because

they're writing about the lack of a run game. They're asking Mike Tomlin about the struggles in the run game. And this could be the get right game for James Conner. So, um, which makes it, I don't know. And it's, this is strange to say because of Jacksonville, but I don't know if both aspects of the Steelers offense are going to be excellent. My hope is throw to score run to win. So build your lead with the passing game, like we've seen from the Steelers the last few weeks. And then fourth quarter, just pound the ball with James Conner. So you're not benching any of these guys because you shouldn't.

Now, there are some cases with James Conner, like you just mentioned, Mike Davis would be one. But I wouldn't start the Damien Harris's, the Ahmed's, the Bellagio's of the world over James Conner. I think this is a week where he's going to reward you. Okay. And Ben Roethlisberger's top four for all three of our fantasy analysts. Let's go to players that we want to avoid.

Jamie, who are we avoiding this week? I would avoid Tom Brady if you can. You know, that's difficult to do because he's great but this rams defense is great and you know we saw two weeks ago what it was like for brady when he faced a tough defense with the saints so jaylen rams is going to take away somebody my guess is mike evans and you know we'll see how chris godwin and um antonio brown and rob bronkowski attack this defense and how Tom Brady attacks this defense, but I think the Rams' defense is legit,

and I'm worried about Brady in the passing game. Okay, we're going to argue, or just rankings dispute, about Mike Evans and Cooper Cupp. That game we'll preview tomorrow, but we'll have a 60-seconds rankings dispute about that game in a bit. Heath, who are you avoiding? I am trying to avoid the running backs for the Ravens and the Rams and the Broncos.

I think you can do that. I have faith in you. Thank you. Especially the Rams situation. They're just not throwing to their running backs that much, and nobody now looks like they're going to get a big split of the carries, and they're facing the best run defense in football. You look at the buccaneers giving up 3.3 yards per carry and even

that doesn't tell you how good they've been it's like 3.08 against running backs this season and malcolm brown has done the most in the passing game in terms of targets and catches but daryl henderson's been like twice as good as him on a per catch basis actually has more receiving yards. So like Henderson and Brown are flex ish, but I would like to avoid all of those situations. Cool. So the players we love Mike Davis is the start of the week.

The, we like the Steelers a lot this week. Jamie has Tom Brady 14th. Heath has him 10th. Jameis Winston and Tom Brady are very close in the rankings. Jamie has Jameis ahead. Heath has Jameis one spot, one spot behind Tom Brady 14th. Heath has him 10th. Jameis Winston and Tom Brady are very close in the rankings. Jamie has Jameis ahead. Heath has Jameis one spot behind Tom Brady. And Heath is avoiding the Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, and Denver running backs.

Jamie, you second that? Baltimore, Rams? Oh, for sure. Yeah. All right. Yeah, Redo, we don't like you, committees. All right, news and notes. Drew Locke mispractice.

Stafford mispractice. Bridgewater mispractice. So I mentioned those three could come down to Sunday. Bridgewater was limited. Okay, that's good. Russell Okung left tackle for Carolina, not expected to play. Same with Carolina cornerback Dante Jackson. And their secondary hasn't been quite as good the last couple of weeks. A number of Raiders defensive players are on the reserve COVID

list, and I wonder if that game is going to get moved off of primetime, like the last Raiders game. Yeah, it might. I think, and I don't know that we have clarification on this, I think they've only had two positives, right? These are all contact tracing

guys? Yeah. From what I understand i think so if that's the case then if they can get four or five negatives in a row then they could still play in that game if they have more positives come in i think you're probably right about the moving off prime time right well i don't think is it a good thing or a bad thing to have like half of your starting defense not practicing the week you're about to play? Well, I mean, we love it from a fantasy perspective. I mean, not that you're benching the Chiefs. They could throw the 85 Bears out there.

You're still going to start Mahomes, Hill, and Kelsey, but it'd probably be a good thing for Clyde Edwards-Hilaire. Cleveland right tackle Jack Conklin is on the reserve COVID list, but this is a contact tracing one? Yes. Right, so he could come back. A couple of big injuries for the Dolphins as they face Denver. I don't think it's going

to matter because we want to avoid the Denver backfield, but one's not an injury. But Christian Wilkins, defensive tackle, he's still on the reserve COVID list for now. And Kyle Van Nooy, linebacker, he missed practice. Matt Breida practiced in full. All right. So if we look at that game, that's one of the last games we're previewing, Denver-Miami.

Matt Breida practiced in full. Maybe Troy Mayne-Ping, Denver-Miami. Map read a practice in full. Maybe Troy Mayne Pope, who played zero snaps, will be more involved this week. Zero offensive snaps. He played special teams. Okay, thank you. Zero offensive snaps. When you look at Ahmed and Balazs, do you expect 15-plus carries from them?

Yes. I mean, the Dolphins' track record has been to feature a guy aside from the first game without gaskin you know so you saw last week with akmed he had the most uh played the most snaps of any dolphins running back this season so that kind of tells you where they're at with him and in terms of bellage i think if pope is going to play he's going to cut into joshua kelly at this point i mean why would you mess with what's been working? Yeah. Okay. And like it's Troy man,

Pope's got like a three or four year career. And that one game where he got 11 touches is the clear outlier. Every other game, he's just been a blocker, a special teams player. So I don't think we should worry too much about him. James Robinson was limited with a shoulder injury. He'll face Pittsburgh this week. Duke Johnson mispracticed with an illness, non-COVID,

so he should be okay for New England. Noah Fant mispracticed with a rib injury. Tennessee's got two starting offensive linemen. Center Ben Jones, left guard Roger Saffold, who mispracticed Wednesday. They were both in and out of the game last week. They're at

Baltimore this week. Pittsburgh could finally be getting cornerback Mike Hilton back, and that should help. And Baltimore's, you know, look, you're going to start Derrick Henry no matter what, but your expectations might change depending on Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams. Both of those guys are going to be questionable.

Baltimore will get linebacker LJ Fort back this week, and Stephon Gilmore may play this week. And I'm just going to read a few players who are limited in practice on Wednesday. And you tell me if any of them are in jeopardy of missing the game. Damian Harris, Jerry Judy, Alvin Kamara, TJ Hawkinson, and Brashad Perryman.

I'd always be concerned with Perryman just because he's missed time throughout his career when he's been hurt. But the rest I expect to play. Groovy. All right, Jamie, real quick here. Did you say Noah Fant? Yes, I did. He missed practice.

So real quick, Jamie, I wanted to dedicate more time with this, but probably don't have it. But your guillotine league, which is something that I will do next year for sure. They seem so fun. Yep. What happened in your guillotine league in week 10?

So I won't say the names, but it's an analyst league that I'm in. And one of the managers two weeks ago set the record for most points. It's a two-year league that we're in with just the most ridiculous game I think anybody may have ever seen. He has, he had on his team, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Tyree Kill, DK Metcalf. I forget the entire list of names, but you get the point. It was AJ Brown, just an entirely stacked, stacked, stacked team. And the commissioner of the league said, I don't know who's going to beat this guy because he's on fire. Well, next week rolls around, week 10. He leaves McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill in his lineup.

I don't know if he forgot. Oh, no, I didn't even realize that. He missed so good. Well, then DK Metcalf was bad. AJ Brown was bad. Dalvin Cook wasn't Superman. And he had the low score and he lost. So he got chopped.

And all those players are available now. Note to fantasy managers, however good your team is, make sure you set your lineup. Yeah, but now, but also in this guillotine league, almost everyone was out of fab money. And... Yes. So there's two... Every week somebody gets chopped, so we're down to seven managers left on, luckily, one of fab money. Yes. So there's two.

All these players are available. Every week somebody gets chopped. So we're down to seven managers left. Luckily, one of the seven. And I have no money left. My last big purchase was James Conner right before he decided to get bad. But there's two fantasy managers with with money left and one had 470 i think of a thousand dollars left and the other one had 28 and then everybody else is at zero

but the manager with 470 also has a stacked roster so like i know that that person i'm sure is dropping dj dallas i saw that was on his roster but he's gonna have to make some tough calls as well if he wanted to pick up all these guys, which he could, he could have had everybody. He could have had the entire, he could have switched teams. He wanted to, and nobody else could do anything.

So I'm curious to see, because after I didn't look yet, because the waiver waivers ran last night, but Thursday at two o'clock, it opens again for a first come first serve. So I'm hoping there's at least one or two guys that can help my roster. All right, everybody. One thing we can help you out with for sure is your wardrobe. All right, it's time for you to look better. Let's get some express clothing in your life. And let's get you

a nice discount 25 bucks off your $50 purchase. Text keyword football text football to 397 737. Again, you're going to send a text message to 397-737, text the word football there and get 25 bucks off your $50 purchase. This sweater, Express, coming today, two ties. I already got my dress socks over the weekend. I got a winter jacket coming. I got some button-down shirts coming. I got some awesome stuff. Express is incredible. The prices are just phenomenal. I mean, I've got, I'm not gonna say how much money I spent,

but it wasn't a lot for like over 10 items. All right, we're talking less than 50 bucks an item. Just great stuff. You're gonna be very surprised at how affordable it is. And how much are you gonna love this stuff? It's really unique styles. They fit everyone. They're comfortable. They're for all different types of body types. Make sure you're checking out the Luxe Comfort Knit Collection, sharp details, soft fabrics, like wearing your favorite sweats. In fact, one of the items that will be delivered

today is from the Luxe Comfort Knit Collection. But yeah, whether you want some casual stuff, you want some jeans, some accessories, you accessories, maybe some socks. There's like cologne, things like that. There's stuff for women as well. Or if you want to get fancy, I got a blazer coming as well. A lot of different things on Express. Check it out. And make sure you are using that code. Text FOOTBALL to 397-737 to get $25 off your $50 purchase. Again, text FOOTBALL to 397-737 and get $25 off your $50 purchase at Express. You are going to love it. So, okay, real quick.

Yeah. So we did this thing for Express on Wednesday night. We did a Zoom chat for some invited guests and members of Express. It was myself, Heath, and Dave. And Dalvin Cook joined us. So it was really cool to hear his thoughts on... I was trying to get the game plan members of Express. It was myself, Heath, and Dave. And Dalvin Cook joined us. So it was really cool to hear his thoughts on I was trying to get the game plan out of him. I was going to say, Dalvin, tell us Kirk Cousins throwing the ball 40 times. But obviously, he wasn't going to share

that with us. But the funny part of this is, so they give us, Express does, hey, here are some of the talking points for what we need. So right before we sit down, you know, and I was hosting this and kind of flying blind myself. Well, Heath had no idea what we're going to talk about when we sat down. So Heath is all dressed up. Great express clothes. I was wearing my express clothes, Dave as well. And I said to Heath, I go, all right, hey, I'm going to ask you what you're wearing. And the look of panic on Heath's face because he didn't know exactly what he was wearing.

Like, he knows he's wearing a blazer and a nice dress shirt and all that stuff. But like, I'm going to say, you know, hey, talk about like exactly what you're wearing. And the look of panic on his face. Oh, Heath. Like, a shirt? You know, it's good to be prepared in life. Yeah. And I was be prepared in life. Yeah. And I was not prepared in that moment.

Never a good feeling when you're about to go live. Now, again, to go back to make sure you set your lineup. We did get an email saying, here are the talking points. That was sent to all of us. Yeah. I mean, I wasn't invited, but I would have read the email. I know that. That's for sure.

And Dave was funny. You know how you're sitting there at home for the people on the YouTube channel that can see you? So Dave was at home. Heath and I were in studio. And so I go, Dave, what are you wearing? And he goes, oh, I got this great polo. And it's clearly long sleeve. And it's long sleeve.

I can see Dave doing that. That's great. All right, here we go. We put the 60 in 62nd here, guys. Let's adhere to the rules. I'll give you some leeway. 62nd ranking disputes. Here we go.

Ryan Tannehill, 21st for Jamie, 13th for Heath at Baltimore. Heath, kick it off with Tannehill. Feels like this might be one where I end up moving him in between these two after this conversation, but I do think this is a game where Tannehill is like this might be one where I end up moving him to like in between these two after this conversation. But I do think this is a game where Tannehill is going to have to throw the ball 30 plus times. Generally over the past two years, when he's had to do that,

he has given us good fantasy production. The Ravens defense is obviously very good. They're also pretty beat up upfront. And I think there's going to be an opportunity for him to sit in the pocket a little more than you normally would against Baltimore but I also have a hard time looking at the guys ranked in the teens of guys that I want to put ahead of them there's there's a bunch of quarterbacks in that range but once I get past Jameis Winston there aren't a lot that I actually want to rank as starters okay Jamie you're lower you got Tannehill 21st yeah I mean you know I'll say

the same thing I'm saying to the last month since they lost Taylor Luan. His numbers have been trending in the wrong direction. I will actually move him up if Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams play more so Brandon Williams, because you can run on the Ravens when Brandon Williams is not there. That's been the track record over the last couple of seasons. So I think this is actually a good game for Derek Henry if Brandon Williams does not play. And they beat the Bravens relatively easy in the playoffs last year with Ryan Tannehill getting a whopping 88 passing yards and two touchdowns. I don't think he's going to have a big game because I can't trust him until I see a better opponent in terms of favorable

opponent and be seeing him manage a good game, great game, essentially, with his offensive line being what it is. I have to check. I don't know if Roger Saffold's injury status is as well because he was in and out of the lineup last Thursday. Even at Saffold and Luan, he's in trouble. And their center, Ben Jones. They've got three. Luan's out.

The other two were both in and out on Sunday. Call them questionable for the week. We go to the, what's that? It was last Thursday. Okay, right. Yeah, my bad. Cup and Mike Evans. Let's go to that Rams and Bucks game here. And Jamie's got Cup and Evans around 27th

to 30th in PPR. Heath has them both Cup and Evans top 17. So Heath, I'll let you kick it off. Are you just expecting more offense in this game or just these two players specifically? What are you thinking? The Rams have had a couple games this year. Most of the year, they've just been run heavy, run heavy, run heavy.

They're not going to be able to run with any success at all against Tampa Bay. I think this will have to be a higher pass volume. And a lot was made of Josh Reynolds leading the Rams receivers and targets last week. But it was just two weeks ago that Cooper Cup had 21 targets in a game. And he has been most of the season, their target leader, at least especially in the second half. So I got him projected for nine targets in a game where I think golf has to throw more passes than he has this year. And I just don't buy the fact that

he's not going to score touchdowns this year after what he's done the past couple of seasons. So I've probably got him at a better chance for a touchdown than Dave and Jamie do. Okay. What about Evans? This is one, and I thought about it at the beginning of the week. I'm just not certain that Jalen Ramsey is going to shadow Mike Evans. They've got Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown.

If he does, if we can get some confirmation on that, then I would definitely have him lower. I just don't know that it's any more likely that he shadows Evans than Brown. If there's compelling evidence that he is, I will lower him. Jamie, Cup, and Evans. I like Cup. First off,

I don't think Jared Goff was throwing more than 61 times. That was the game that he had the most pass attempts. I'm going to take the under on that. I think you're going to see a situation where Cup is the best Rams receiver. And I would like to have him higher. It's a great week for wide receivers. So he's a start. And I'll say this time and time again.

We've got to stop with 24 as the number. We're talking about starting wide receivers. There's just too many good guys. So Cup is a good start. If you want to have them 17, 24, keep them in your lineup, whatever the case may be. I do think it's going to be a bad game for Robert Woods.

I think Carlton Davis, if he's going to see somebody the most, he's going to see Robert Woods the most. For Evans, I do think it's going to be that's where Ramsey lines up. You've seen Tom Brady's best games have been when Evans has been playing well. And so this is going to be a game where I think Ramsey takes away their most physical,

big receiver. And that's, I think going to be the most, uh, where he spends his time, which is on, on Mike Evans. So when we've seen Evans have some bad games,

it's been with some tough coverage. So this is the typical receiver that Ramsey takes away. And finally, uh, Mike, a sticky, it's not even a good matchup. Heath,

you got to get sticky 10th and Jamie's got him 20th. What's not even a good matchup, Heath. You got Gasicki 10th and Jamie's got him 20th. What's going on, Heath? Mike Gasicki at Denver. There's five good tight ends. And Gasicki is targeted downfield more than any of the other guys.

And I don't know that it's necessarily a bad matchup. He's more of a wide receiver than he is a tight end now with Preston Williams gone, and he kind of was before the season. But I don't want to say that I think Mike Kosicki is definitely going to be good. I just don't think any other guys are going to be any good.

Okay. I like his downfield big play ability. Okay. Well, Jamie's got him 20th. We don't really need to get too far into that. Got some more stats coming up for you. Here's an Acer stat. DJ Chark, he's on pace for, ready for this?

74 catches, 986 yards, and 8 touchdowns on 116 targets. Last year, he had 73 catches, 1,008 yards, and 8 touchdowns on 118 targets. Two more targets, one fewer catch, about 20 more yards, and the same amount of touchdowns. Basically on pace for the same numbers. However, last year was 15 games. This is his 16-game pace.

So that was really just a, hey, this is kind of fun kind of stat. His next three games, his next four games, including this week, are against teams that rank 25th or worse against wide receivers. That's DJ Chark. Start or sit Chark this week against Pittsburgh? They've obviously been bad

against wide receivers. So I don't think he's a must sit, but I also don't think he's a must start. You know, there's, he could have had a big play last week against the Packers and Jake Luton, you know, ball probably hung up in the wind, but he, I don't know the corner he was playing,

but the Packers corners were banged up and he had several steps on the guy and the ball just hung up in the air and he had to try to come back for it. And he didn't, didn't get it. But I think if he's if he's on your team and you start three receivers, he's probably going to be in your lineup. If you start two receivers, he's probably not. Cool. Mike Evans or DJ Chark? Evans. Evans.

Carlos Hyde or Chark? I'd go Hyde and non-PPR. Chark and PPR. I would go Hyde in both. Okay. Let's hear from our good buddy, Jacob Gibbs. Get some good stats here, some advanced stats to help you out a little bit with maybe some DFS,

maybe some player props, or maybe just your lineups here in week 11. What's up, FFT? This is Sportsline Fantasy Analyst Jacob Gibbs, and I'm back with three more advanced stats for you heading into week 11. Stat number one is for the Thursday night game. The Arizona Cardinals use man coverage at the fourth highest rate in the NFL. Russell Wilson has averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt

on a 59% completion rate versus man coverage this season, both of which rank 20th in the NFL. He threw for a lot of yards in a shootout against Arizona earlier this year, but he also threw three picks and had his second lowest completion percentage of the season in that game. Russ averaged 205 yards passing and threw for just two touchdowns in two games against Arizona in 2019. DK Metcalf leads the NFL in yardage against press coverage, and as discussed with Stefan Diggs in last week's episode, the Cardinals play a lot of it. However, in two career games against Patrick Peterson, Metcalf has a total of just three catches for 29 yards.

Stat number two. Jacoby Myers has a 40% target share in each of his past three games. He's the only player in the NFL who has reached that rate in three consecutive games this season. In fact, Devontae Adams is the only other player who has at least three games with a target share above 40%. Myers leads the NFL in games with a 40% target share, and he's only started four games this season. That's absolutely insane. Over the past month, 61% of New England's air yards have gone to Myers. For reference as to just how high that is, the league leader has a 41% rate. A wide receiver has seen a 50% target share in just three games this season. Two of those three games came against the Houston Texans, which is who Jacoby Myers

plays in week 11. Stat number three, the Detroit Lions use both man and press coverage at the second highest rate in the NFL. Teddy Bridgewater has the league's highest completion rate against man coverage. He ranks 20th in passer rating versus zone, but is second versus man. Only three receivers have more yards versus man than Robbie Anderson. He's been targeted on 34% of his routes run versus man, as opposed to just 22% versus zone. Anderson also has six more targets and 41 more receiving yards against press coverage than DJ Moore, even though Moore has run 81 more routes versus press coverage than Robbie Anderson.

Anderson's yards per route run has risen from 1.9 when not pressed to 2.8 when pressed. That's a 46% difference. That's huge. The Teddy B to Robbie A connection definitely should get back on track in this spot. That's all for Week 11. Thanks for letting me share my stats with you today. If you liked them, give me a follow on Twitter at jgibbs__23. I'll be tweeting out nerdy stats all week long. Thanks a lot, Jacob. Good stuff there. To sum it up, Russell Wilson not nearly as good against man coverage as zone, and Arizona Thanks a lot, Jacob. Good stuff there. To sum it up, Russell Wilson,

not nearly as good against man coverage as zone and Arizona plays a lot of man. Jacoby Myers. Now you're going to start Russell Wilson. Jacoby Myers, though, he's the only player in the NFL to reach a 40% target share in three straight games this season. And there have been three games this year where players had a 50% target share. Two of them have been against Houston. So you can probably expect a ton of targets for Jacoby Myers against Houston this week. And if Teddy Bridgewater plays, he's much better against man coverage.

Detroit uses a lot of man coverage and Robbie Anderson a lot better against man coverage. So hopefully Robbie Anderson can get back on track. Jacob's the best in the business. Give him a follow on Twitter and we've got a whole episode of Fantasy Football today in five Saturday morning with Jacob Gibbs. Check that out.

Getting into the games a little bit more here. Time for the start-o-meter. The last three games we'll preview are Tennessee-Baltimore, Miami-Denver, and the Chargers and the Jets. How about Corey Davis on the start-o-meter? Five. Six. Three.

Okay, six for Heath, three for Jamie. How about Marquise Brown? One. So you're starting Corey Davis over Marquise Brown? I am. I'm not. Oh, interesting. Okay.

Mark Andrews? Nine. How about Lamar Jackson? I can't skip him uh eight nine okay well probably eight's probably better I would start Ben over

Lamar but that's the only guy that's not like an elite super elite quarterback that I'd start over Lamar are you putting Herbert in the super elite category yet I have Lamar ahead of Herbert all right I'll take Herbert over Lamar Miami Denver uh two Otonga Vailoa the super elite category yet? I have Lamar ahead of Herbert. All right, I'll take Herbert over Lamar. Miami, Denver.

Two, Otago, Vailoa. Four. Three. Okay, how about... I'll save the running backs for just one second. Wait, where do you have Parker? Because if you have Gusecki that high, you better... You need to have a good game.

He's 17th? Like, I don't know. What's that supposed to be? I think that's a 20 fantasy point game. He's 17th? Like, I don't know. What's that supposed to be? Like, that's a 20 fantasy point game. There's only two guys he throws to. No, you're talking about two of 17th, not Parker. Right. Okay.

So, Devontae Parker, start-o-meter. Seven. Yeah. Jakeem Grant. What'd I say for Davis? Three. Like a three, yeah. Yeah. Jakeem Grant. Uh, what'd I say for Davis? Three. Like a three.

Yeah. Yeah. Two or three. Would you start? I'd start Grant over Davis. Okay. Would you start Jakeem Grant or Corey Davis over Jerry Judy? I would start Davis over Judy.

I would start Judy over both. How about Tim Patrick? I'd start Davis over Judy. I would start Judy over both. How about Tim Patrick? I'd start Patrick over both. I'd start Patrick over Judy. Really? Why? Xavier Howard? What's that? Xavier Howard?

Yeah. Howard's going to spend more time on Patrick than he will Judy. Really? Well, I mean, Judy spends more time in the slot than Patrick does. Okay. But what percentage of the spends more time in the slot than Patrick does. Okay. But what percentage of the time is Judy in the slot? Oh, not much, but he's in there more than Patrick is. Well,

that makes me think he might spend more time on Jerry Judy if he's not in the slot much and they're both playing outside a lot. I don't know. They have two good cornerbacks. I don't like either one. I try to avoid the Broncos guys, but I start them over the other guys you mentioned.

How about Noah Fant if he plays? Five. Yeah, it's time to move on from Noah Fant. Chargers and Jets. Justin Herbert. This could be the only game that he's played in like the last six weeks where they're not giving up 29 points. This will be the only game that he's played in the last six weeks where they're not giving up 29 points.

This will be. Oh, don't be surprised. No, no, no. They can't. They can't. You would have said the same thing about the Patriots, though, two weeks ago, right? I guess so, but the Jets are averaging 13 points per game.

They're the worst offense in football. But you got to go based on the one-game sample size, right? Of what? Flacco? Flacco. No, he's played three games. Okay. Anyway, Herbert, 10?

Yeah. Mike Williams. I like Mike Williams this week. I think he's a six. Three or four. Hunter Henry. Five. I'm just saying five on all tight ends

that aren't Travis Kelsey or Darren Willer. I'll say seven. The Jets have struggled with tight ends. I think you said eight on Mark Andrews Heath. Five. Five. Okay. Michael Pirine. I like Pirine this week.

Six. Five. Did you P. Ryan this week. Six. Five. That was almost exactly. Did you do that on purpose, Jamie? What? You basically said the exact same sentence twice in a row, except you substituted Mike Williams for P. Ryan. Jameson Crowder.

I like Crowder this week. Six. Nine. Eight. Okay. How about Perryman? Eight in non-PPR. Nine in PPR. Perryman?

If he plays? No. No. Five. Five. Okay, everyone's a five. No, he's going to get Hayward. That's bad for him.

Kalen Balazs and Savan Ahmed. Must start, guys? Balazs is for sure in both formats. Ahmed, I would say, is for sure, but better in non-PPR than PPR. I'd say Balazs is an 8 in both. 7 or 8 in both. Ahmed is 6 in non, a 5

in PPR. Let's talk about the players that we haven't discussed yet as we look at the 7 AFC home games, sort of AFC home games, on today's show. New England and Houston. Stat of the game number one. Every quarterback has scored 23 or more fantasy points against Houston, except for three.

Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, and Baker Mayfield. And those three have something in common. They're the only ones with fewer than 32 passes. They all threw 20 to 24 passes. So what does that mean for Cam Newton? He's probably not going to throw 30 passes. Is Cam Newton a start at Houston? Yes.

Yeah, I've got him ninth. I'd start him over Tom Brady. Yep. Would you start him over Jameis Winston? I would. The only way I would not, and we're never going to know this, is if Sean Payton said, Jason Mills not touching the ball.

Oh, you mean, okay. Right. Okay, so Cam Newton's a top 10 guy. Stat of the game number two, a running back has scored 15 or more PPR fantasy points against Houston in eight of nine games. Seven running backs have rushed for 99 or more

yards against the Texans. We just talked about Savan Ahmed and Kalen Balazs. Would you take Damian Harris over them? Why couldn't James Robinson just get one more yard and make it easy? Oh, he had 100? He had 99.

He actually had the only bad game in his first game against Houston. Yes. I would start Damian Harris over those guys in non-PPR. He said he was 99. Yeah. He actually had the only bad game in his first game against Houston. Yes. The only running back who didn't... I would start Damian Harris over those guys in non-PPR. I would start Harris over Ahmed in PPR. Yeah, I've got Harris and Ahmed in PPR

almost exactly the same. I mean, Ahmed at least might catch one pass. But I think Harris will be better for sure in none. If I had a PPR flex spot and I had Jacoby Myers and I had all three of those running backs, Ahmed, Balazs, and Damian Harris, who would I start? Balazs. I would start Balazs.

Okay. Jacoby Myers, I'm surprised he's not higher in your rankings, guys. He's 62% rostered. Last I checked, I'll look at the updated ones. But as of yesterday, he was just outside the top 30. Oh, why? It's a good week for wide receivers and he's just not scoring touchdowns. You can't count on him throwing a touchdown. He's not going to be as great as he was against the jets. Cause I don't think they're going to be chasing points. Um, or, you know, to the level that they were against the jets, which was a surprise.

I think he's going to be kind of what he's been, you know, which is, you know, to the level that they were against the Jets, which was a surprise. I think he's going to be kind of what he's been, you know, which is, you know, somewhere between six to eight targets. He'll probably have an opportunity to be, you know, six for 70, you know, that type of game. He hasn't scored. He hasn't caught a touchdown in his career. Well, he all, he should have, he was wide open in the end zone. I think the biggest reason Adam was the first thing you said

when talking about Cam Newton. He's probably not going to throw 30 passes. Yeah. Except Jacoby Myers, a wise man, once told me that he has a 40% target share three straight games. Jacob Gibbs.

Okay, well, listen, he's a start. Whether he's in the top 30 or not, he's a start, right? He's a borderline starter in non-PPR. He should be considered a starter in a three-receiver PPR league for sure. Yeah, and Dave actually moved him to 27th in PPR. Deshaun Watson is top eight for everybody.

And he's starting to rush a little bit more. He's got 25, 26, 38, 50, and 36 rushing guards in his last five games. So you're going to start him. It's kind of weird. The Patriots see the fewest pass attempts per game in the NFL. So will the Texans

be able to run on them? I think Duke Johnson is really interesting this week and you guys are not super high on him. I thought he'd be in your top 20. As of yesterday afternoon,

he wasn't. Again, I'll check the updated rankings. He is 19th in PPR. Oh, okay. He got up to 19th. Yeah, throw him the ball. I mean, last week

was ridiculous. What happened? Yeah, no catches. 14 carries for 53 yards. Especially in the bad weather. It should have been a better game for him. The positive of that game, while it was terrible, they didn't throw him the ball, and egregious, I don't think there was another running back that touched the ball.

There wasn't another running back that had a carry. No. So that's the good news. Yeah, I think, for me at least, wasn't another running back that had a carry no that's that's the good news yeah i think you know for me at least um i would still start the the replacement guys this week over him because i think there's a higher ceiling for those guys but if you have duke johnson you picked him up last week i'd be more encouraged about just make sure he plays you know the fact that he had an illness we with today's environment you just never know right that's what he mispracticed for right we've

seen what was it marcus peters had an illness that wasn't COVID and then it was COVID. I think it was Marcus Peters. So you never know, but keep an eye on him. So with that said, would you start Duke Johnson or a Thursday night guy? I would start Carlos Hyde over him. Even if you told me Duke Johnson was healthy, because I think there's a higher ceiling for him. And I can certainly see Kenyon Drake and non PPPR and Chase Edmonds in PPR. So if you want to be safe, for me, they're all in the same range. If you guaranteed me,

if he was fine today and a full participant in practice, I would start him over all of them in full PPR. In non-PPR, I'd prefer Hyde and Drake. This is a much better week for running back than last week, isn't it? It's a much better week for everything because look at the four teams that are on a bye. Right.

Giants, Bills, Giants, Bears, and who's the fourth? 49ers. 49ers. Yeah. I mean, what? The two best players are Diggs and Allen, right? Yeah. That are missing.

Excuse. What? What are you talking about? Hold on. Sorry. It took me a second to find the drop the trap i thought you were gonna say david montgomery um okay wait uh oh yeah last week we had the falcons and the chiefs right so much better week okay um houston wide receivers start them both what do you think gilmore could be back

obviously you got jackson playing great with an interception in five straight games how we feel about cooks and fuller? Sort of. Yeah, you go right back to them. I actually like Cooks slightly better than Fuller, but both guys should be fantastic. Better than Jacoby Myers? Yes. Better than Jacoby Myers.

Okay. And the Patriots DST is a sit for Dave and Heath, for Jamie and Heath, and a start right now for Dave. He's got an eighth. Well, you won't hear from Dave on the show. Sorry. Detroit's at Carolina. Dave and Heath for Jamie and Heath and a start right now for Dave's got him eighth. Um, well, you won't hear from Dave on the show. Sorry.

Detroit's at Carolina. Carolina is as of yesterday, a one and a half point favorite. They've lost five in a row. And one thing that's hurt them, that's hurt Mike Davis. That's hurt Robbie Anderson, DJ more at times.

They've been really bad at type of possession lately in three of their last five games. They've had the ball for like of possession lately. In three of their last five games, they've had the ball for like 25 minutes or less, or like 25-15, something like that, 25 minutes, 15 seconds or less. So that's just weird. And it's hurting their stats, obviously. Hopefully that can change.

If both quarterbacks play, who do you like better, Stafford or Bridgewater? Stafford. Stafford. Okay, is Stafford a must start at this point? He's got 276 or more yards in three of his last four. Two of his last three, he's got three touchdown passes. What do you think?

Can you be a must start if Jameis Winston's ranked ahead of you? No. Okay, so he's a start. He's a top 12 quarterback for me, but he's behind Ben and Cam and Winston, so I wouldn't call him a must start. Okay. So I don't think he's a start. He's a top 12 quarterback for me, but he's behind Ben and Cam and Winston. So I wouldn't call him a start. Okay. And I think Stafford is a starter, but I agree with you.

Okay. Stafford 11th for Jamie and 12th for Heath and 16th for Dave. Are we liking or loving Deandre Swift this week? Love. I like him a lot. Okay, he's a start. Any waiver wire guys over him? What about like, what if Gio is the starter?

Mike Davis, DeAndre Swift? I'd start Davis over Swift. I would start Swift over a lot of running backs this week. He's, I think, top seven for me. Yeah, seventh. Heath's got him 13th in PPR, 20th in non-PPR, Heath. No respect. I mean, it's not no respect.

You just said it was a good week for running backs. He's a start. Yeah. No, it's got a lot of good running backs ahead of him. I'm surprised you have Ronald Jones ahead of DeAndre Swift. What? In non-PPR. They both just had their breakout game and Jones was better.

And who did Swift get this week? He faces Carolina. And who did Jones just play? He faced Carolina. Yeah, I'm surprised. Okay, especially because you're the one who, above everyone else, you're the one who trusts Bruce Arians the least when it comes to running backs. I don't have a great degree of trust in Matt Patricia.

Oh, really? Because I think at this point it's clear. Peterson had four carries last week. There was a report that they went and told Peterson, like, your role is changing. Yeah. All right. All right, Heath. It's cool. It's cool. It's cool, like, your role is changing. Yeah. All right. All right, Heath. It's cool. It's cool.

It's cool. We called your shot. That's cool. This is a fun manufactured controversy. Detroit wide receivers. All right. Give me the breakdown on Detroit wide receivers with, I guess, like all of them being questionable right now.

You start Kenny Galladay if he plays. I'd rather not start anybody else regardless. Yes. If Galladay is out, Jones is in that top 30 wide receiver range. If Jones is in. He didn't practice yesterday. Jones is in. Really?

So you wouldn't be excited about Marvin Jones if Kenny Galladay were out? I think he's a very good start. It's one of those things where, again, there's just such a good week for wide receivers. So I'd start him over Evans, for example i wouldn't start them over cup okay and uh i guess that's it oh hawkinson i know we had a bad game last week but you got to go right back to tj hawkinson carolina they've faced a lot of good tight ends but they are 19th against tight ends uh jeremy chen's playing really well just keep that in mind yeah he's been really good. Right. In fact, look, I'm not saying he was going to stop Travis

Kelsey. Kelsey had 10 catches for 159 yards. Jeremy Chin did not play in that game. Right. Bridgewater, what's that? Chin didn't play. No, he did not. Teddy Bridgewater, is he a start if he plays? I'd start him

over Tannehill, but I wouldn't start him over Winston. I definitely wouldn't start him over Winston. I've got Stafford 12th, and I wouldn't start him over Stafford, so I guess that's not a start, but he'd be a fine streamer. How about like Tua, Tunga-Vailoa, or Teddy Bridgewater?

I'd start Teddy. I mean, there's enough body of work where Teddy's showing you that he's a better fantasy quarterback at this point. I'd start him over Burrow, too. Mike Davis, we already talked about. The matchup's just so good. The Lions giving up not only the most fantasy points to running backs,

but the most receiving yards per game to running backs as well. The most total touchdowns to running backs, too. 13 rushing, 18 total. Please, Mike Davis. Please, one more time. One more time. Come on through. Robbie Anderson or DJ Moore this week.

Who would you rather start? I think at this point, you just have to go with the PPRs, Anderson, non PPRs, Moore. And again, top 30 wide receivers, you know, so they're in that starting group. You know, and Adam, like we talked about on on tuesday on twitch like at this point you just have to know that robbie anderson is the type of wide excuse me dj well i guess both of both of them are the type of wide receivers that they're gonna have a down game they're gonna have a great game you know so you know unless you just have something that's overwhelmingly convincing in your lineup that you're going to take those guys out. I think you just got to play them every week. Yeah, sort of.

Okay. And Robbie Anderson, and this might be the third time I'm giving this stat this week, but I just find it amazing. He has the fourth most targets among wide receivers, the fourth most catches, the fifth most yards, and he has one touchdown. He's become DJ Moore.

That's what DJ Moore was. Moore, by the way, only has three red zone targets this year. Who leads the Panthers in red zone targets and green zone targets? Curtis Samuel. Mike Davis. Ten red zone targets. Five inside the ten. That would be the green zone.

Okay, I think that's pretty much it here. Oh yeah, Curtis Samuel. How do you feel about him? Flex. I mean, here's the thing that troubles me about Mike Davis as a start of the week. They're going to give him carries. He's going to get an opportunity to take on this bad run defense.

So I think Curtis Samuel is a flex. I hope he doesn't burn us like he did last week, but that was a much different animal, the defense that he's facing. This defense not as tough. So Curtis Samuel can clearly come back and deliver a strong performance. Yeah, going into last week, we were a little worried that Curtis Samuel had started to become the red zone guy. But last week, Mike Davis was definitely in there near the end zone,

inside the red zone, and that's what you want to see. Detroit's DST, their borderline top 12. And yeah, I don't think people are going to be too enthused to start them, but you could do worse. Pittsburgh's at Jacksonville. So I think we've more or less covered the... Well, we covered one of the stats of the game, and that is the Jaguars' run defense.

They've been really good in six of nine games, basically. But we're still starting James Conner. We're confident in him. But DeAndre Swift ahead of Conner? For me, basically. But we're still starting James Conner. We're confident in him. But DeAndre Swift ahead of Conner? For me, yes. I think I have Conner ranked higher, but I may just move Conner down. I don't know what to

think about it. I don't really know what to think about James Conner because I'm not even certain if, like what Jamie said, throw to score, run to win. I'm not even certain he's going to get all the fourth quarter carries if it's a two or three score game. One thing I learned, run to win. I'm not even certain he's going to get all the fourth quarter carries if it's a two or three score game. One thing I learned a few weeks ago. I'm going to lower James Conner.

Talking to some Steelers. Bryant McFadden and Dave Damaschek, one a Steelers fan, one a former Steeler. Both Steelers fans, I assume. The Steelers have a bad history. A lot of people probably know this. I didn't. They have a really bad history of being heavy, heavy road favorites. And it was against the Cowboys. We did the

Twitch home team watch party presented by Lowe's. And this is a Mike Tomlin thing. They just really stink when they're major favorites on the road. So I actually don't know the spread of this game, but I assume they're big favorites. And maybe Jacksonville can keep it close.

The other stat of the game, in the last six games, now just keep a running tally on this stat, 11 wide receivers have 84 yards or a touchdown against the Jaguars. So that's why all of the Steelers wide receivers... That's me, 14. Our good starts this week.

Okay, Ben Roethlisberger's top five. So, not concerned about the pass attempts. Heath, you laid it out earlier. It is worth noting, though, that that Dallas game was very close. But last week's wasn't. So, I don't know what else to say here.

He's on fire right now. I mean, you know, you just gotta hope that that stays the case. So, you know, you just got to hope that that stays the case. So, you know, look, is Jacksonville going to put up a fight? I'm sure for the, you know, first half there'll be competitive. Jake Luton will make some throws that will say, wow, why did we not expect this to DJ Chark or to Keelan Cole or, and look for give the Jaguars credit. They gave the Packers all they could handle last week in Lambeau punt return,

you know, was a part of that. The game was competitive, and Rodgers had to throw against them. So I can't get away from Ben Roethlisberger right now. How would you rank the wide receivers? And how would you rank Chark with them? Chark's behind all of them. Start all of

the Steelers' wide receivers. For me, it's Juju, Claypool, Deontay in non-PPR. Juju, Deontay, Claypool in PPR. Same. Okay. Eric Ebron, start or sit? Again, he's got such a great matchup. You know, last week was the first game in three,

in four, excuse me, that he didn't get you 11 or more PPR points. They're terrible against tight ends more ppr points they're terrible against tight ends i mean they're absolutely terrible against tight ends you know so this is the problem and this is we're going to have this the rest of the season all four guys are not going to play great the three receivers and eight ebron are not going to all play great so which one's going to be the one that lets you down i wish i had an answer for you i'm sorry but you got to start ebron still. Five.

Would you start an Eagles tight end over Eric Ebron? No. Well, no. Not this week, but hopefully, eventually, Ertz will become that guy again. I really hope that Ertz comes back and finishes strong because he's got contract on the line. He's been so good for fantasy players. He's been so good for the Eagles.

They're probably going to move on from him, but I'd love to see him have a strong finish, which would be great for us. Would you start Eric Ebron or Hunter Henry? Henry. Five. Henry's got a great matchup, too. You have to pick one, Heath.

Heath had a great call last week that Henry would play well against the Dolphins. He finally scored. Maybe now he gets on a roll. No, I'd start Henry. Okay. Sit the Dolphins. He finally scored. Maybe now he gets on a roll. No, I'd start Henry. Okay. Sit Jake Luton. Let's talk about James Robinson here.

So mention this on yesterday's show. He's had a really easy schedule this year. Not easy. Cake. Yeah. I know what you're going to say, but we're 10 weeks into the season. The guy's averaging like a hundred yards a game.

Yeah. No, you probably didn't know what I was going to say, but you didn't know what I was going to say. Well, like we're, we're doing a show about whether we're starting or sitting guys and you want to have a conversation about James Robinson.

I don't believe there's a conversation to have. I was just going to ask, what do you think his favorite movie is? That's all. Okay, so... I can see people being concerned and wanting to bench James Robinson because, first off,

the nature of looking at your lineup, our projections from Sportsline do not have James Robinson projected as high as he typically is. So you have... Like, I'm starting DeAndre Swift over James Robinson. I think there's a higher ceiling for DeAndre Swift,

given his matchup. And he's been, you know, essentially just as good as Robinson for the last, you know, three games. You know, Robinson's been better, but, you know, Swift hasn't been far behind. And then, you know, you look at what Harris is facing in non-PPR. You look at what Ahmed is facing in non-PPR.

You look at what Balazs is facing overall. So I would play Robinson over those guys, but I could see the temptation to get away from it because the Steelers are great. They are very good against running backs and it's going to be a tough game for James Robinson. We saw him struggle once already against the Texans when they sold out to stop him and we'll see if the same thing happens again. The other thing is they've got four losses this year by 10 or more points. In three of them, he had 11 to 13 carries and less than 50 rushing yards. But he did mostly find a way to be productive. He would catch balls. He would score a touchdown, something like that.

He gets basically all their touches. They don't have Chris Thompson anymore. So you would think even if they are losing, that would help him in PPR. And we shall see. If he does not have a good game here, then I think people are going to start saying, uh-oh, what's going to happen down the stretch for James Robinson? But we can talk about that on Sunday night.

And then DJ Chark is around 30th or so in the rankings, top 36 in PPR. And he's fine, I guess. Not an exciting start. Would you start? Let's get some running backs. Would you start Duke Johnson or DJ Chark? Duke Johnson.

Yeah, I think so. How about Michael Pirine or DJ Chark? Chark. Chark. Okay. Jonathan Taylor or Chark? Chark. Chark.

Hines or Chark? Hines. Hines. Pittsburgh's DST is number one. And by the way, go back to the wide receivers real quick. The Steelers are bad against wide receivers. They give up the eighth most points to wide receivers,

the fourth most yards per catch. Are there any other wide receivers you might consider in this game? Chris Conley's got seven or eight targets in two straight games with Luton. He does nothing with them. Even Cole's a flex. Yeah, Cole's interesting.

I mean, you saw the red zone opportunity where he scored. And Leviska Chenault is probably not going to play again. Chris Conley's getting too many targets for my liking. But I think you rank them, and we'll see how it goes. Steelers have struggled a little bit against slot receivers.

Randall Cobb scored 95 in a touchdown. Greg Ward scored Willie Sneed at 100 yards. CeeDee Lamb, 71 yards in a touchdown. I think if they get Hilton back, that would help. Is he their slot corner? Not quite sure about that. I think he might be.

All right, anyway, start the Steelers DST. Tennessee is at Baltimore. Interesting game here. We did talk about Ryan Tannehill a lot. But there's another thing. I don't know if this matters to you, but maybe, correct me if I'm wrong, I think all of these guys

mostly play in the slot. Keelan Cole, Justin Jefferson, Cole Beasley, Randall Cobb, Juju Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd, Anthony Miller. They all had like solid to great games against Tennessee. How about Willie Sneed, ladies and

gentlemen? Any interest? Deep League. I picked him up in the fishbowl last night just to see if this is something that's going to continue obviously um lamar jackson and marquise brown are on the same page so yeah is he just getting tired of marquise brown barking at him and trusting willie sneed and you know jason lockham ford comes on our show every sunday our cbs sports nfl. Well, he does a radio. He lives in Baltimore, does a radio show in Baltimore. He's very plugged into the Ravens.

And he's been talking about how the signing of Des Bryant was as much of a locker room thing as it was an on-field thing to have a veteran presence because that's a really young group. But he kept referencing Willie Sneed is the veteran. So he's been the guy in that room for the entire season. And maybe they're deferring to Willie Sneed. And Lamar Jackson's deferring to Willie Sneed as well. So he's been the guy in that room for the entire season and maybe they're deferring to Willie Sneed and Lamar Jackson's deferring to Willie Sneed as well.

So he's making plays. You know, the production to the last three weeks has been there. So he's not a bad guy in a 14 or 16 team league to pick up and to see if this happens again. And then maybe you start to trust the playoff schedule for Baltimore is absolutely fantastic. Yeah.

The problem is, I mean, maybe I'm onto something here. I don't know with this Tennessee being terrible against slot slot receivers maybe this is a good week for sneed but it would have to be like what we were saying about josh reynolds last week i mean you have to be pretty desperate probably and you know good dfs play deeply sure okay so a fairly easy game we already talked about tannahill he's a lot higher on tannahill than jamie but he might move tannahill down a bit so that's in the 60 second rankings disputes you're going to start derrick

henry you're going to start aj brown and then cory davis so heath you look like you're a lot higher on cory davis which makes sense in the uh the case yeah um i like i think he's a a good high-end number three low-end number two wide receiver. But again, that goes hand-in-hand with Ryan Tannehill's pass attempts. If he only throws it 12 times like he did in the playoffs last year, then Corey Davis is probably going to be terrible. I'm going to go back and look.

I want to see what the Ravens did defensively following the Chiefs' loss. They played Washington. Terry McLaurin had 118 yards. Yeah, I was just talking overall because they got embarrassed on national TV by the Chiefs that week. And then they just got embarrassed by the Patriots.

Yeah, I don't know. I mean, it was against Washington. And then after that, it was Cincinnati. This is and then after that it was cincinnati this is also the you know the team that i wonder if they were looking ahead because you know they they've probably been waiting for this tennessee game for a while after the playoff loss i mean they got they got beat like new england played great and they you know they couldn't stop the run that's a big deal when they're not brandon williams it's a big deal and it's gonna be a big deal against in this game if they don't it's to be a big deal in this game if they don't have him.

Oh, huge. I mean, Derrick Henry was a monster in the playoffs against them last year. Okay, so Jonu Smith. Five? Five, for sure. He's the most five. We've talked about Ebron and Hunter Henry. Are they ahead of Jonu Smith?

Yes. Yes. I can't trust Johnnie. I'm not going to bench him if he's the only tight end on my roster. I'm not going to go pick up Logan Thomas to play him over Johnnie, even though I haven't ranked that way, unless you know you're desperate. But I think Johnnie's been bad. He rushed for a touchdown last week.

You can't count on that. Yeah. Five straight games with 32 or fewer yards. Does not have more than 40 yards in any game he's played with A.J. Brown this season. Lamar Jackson is top eight. He's fifth for Heath, eighth for Jamie, seventh for Dave. with 32 or fewer yards. Does not have more than 40 yards in any game he's played with A.J. Brown this season. Lamar Jackson is top eight. He's fifth for Heath, eighth for Jamie,

seventh for Dave. You can start him, but like, should we? He has not really delivered. Why are you confident in... He had 24 fantasy points last week, right? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, is that delivering?

It's good. It's not top five. Yeah. You know, and last week was a bad week for for fantasy well it's like that doesn't affect his 24 if he scores 24 fantasy points you're gonna be glad you started right uh defense has been pretty terrible well that is true okay every quarterback since week one has thrown oh basically how about this every quarterback week one has thrown... Basically, how about this? Every quarterback but two has thrown multiple touchdown passes

against the Titans. If he throws two touchdowns, he's probably in good shape. Sid, all the Baltimore running backs? Yeah. And would you start Willie Sneed over Marquise Brown if you had to make that decision? No. There's still too much upside with Marquise Brown, but I don't know how anybody could start him with any confidence.

Like this is more of a DFS play. It's more of a, I'm stuck. I got to play Marquise Brown. I got to question Robbie Anderson or Marquise Brown. That's a no brainer to me. You know, you got to play Robbie Anderson and in either format,

but this could be a two touchdown game for Marquise Brown. The secondary is terrible. So, you know, he had his best game as a pro in the, not touchdown-wise, but yardage and catch-wise in the playoffs against this team last year, but they were chasing points.

Starting Jacoby Myers over Marquise Brown? Yes. Would you start LaMichael Pirine over Marquise Brown? Yeah. Man, yeah, you probably should. Let's go to Kansas City at Las Vegas. Rematch.

Vegas won the first game 40-32. How about this? The Kansas City Chiefs, they're usually under Steve Spagnuolo pretty good taking away big plays. They've given up four pass plays of 40-plus yards this year. All of them were in that game against Las Vegas. So this is a team where I think they're going to be pissed off. You talk about like the Ravens bouncing back.

I'm looking forward to the Chiefs throttling the Raiders. I'll make that prediction. But let's talk about start or sit. Mahomes start. Clyde Edwards, are you there? Start or sit? He's behind the backup guys for me. Behind Ahmed, behind Balazs,

behind Harris in non PPR in PPR. You know, he's, he's better. He should be better than Ahmed and Harris, but I'm, I mean, look,

you know, the, the Raiders are down all those guys. It should be a good opportunity for him. And the hope would be coming off their bi-week that this is the point where Damien Harris took, excuse me, Damien Williams took off last year. Hopefully it's the same thing for Edward Solaire.

So if he's on your team, you're probably starting him unless you just, you know, feel like those other guys will be better. And I can certainly understand that based on the body of work for Edward Solaire most of the year. It's a good matchup for him. Vegas allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs, the fifth most receiving yards per game and running backs. He did have 40 receiving yards. He had only 13 touches, but they went for 80 yards in the first matchup. Heath, would you start any Kansas city wide receivers other than Tyreek Hill?

Sammy Watkins is a full participant. And I think Michael Hartman still on the COVID list. So Sammy Watkins could be a decent boom or bust flex. I think he's kind of in the same range as someone like Marquise Brown. Well, I was just about to ask you, Sammy Watkins or Marquise Brown? I think I have them back-to-back currently, and I believe I'd go Watkins. Watkins is probably safer. Brown should have more upside.

Kelsey, starter sit? We're good with him? Two best tight ends in football. Go ahead, Dan. Oh, how about that? Derek Carr. Okay, yeah. How do you feel about Derek Carr this week, guys? I think he's going to be chasing points. I like him.

I would like him more if there wasn't. There's this thing. I guess the Raiders, and I don't remember this happening, but I guess the Raiders did some victory lap around the stadium after they beat the Chiefs. I don't remember that at all. But there's been a lot of talk about it this week.

And I'm kind of thinking you're right, Adam. They might just crush them. I mean, I'd start Derek Carr over too. I'd start him over Jared Goff, over Carson Wentz. He's a top 15 quarterback. I'd start Derek Carr over Tom Brady this week. Tom Brady's good. You know what?

The thing is, Carr is good. He's playing well this year. The last three games, he's got 23 to 25 pass attempts. They've won all three games. Exactly. They've won all three games. One of them was a bad weather game.

But they're going to try to run the ball. They are a ground and pound team. They're going to try to do that. Typically They are a ground-and-pound team. They're going to try to do that. And the Chiefs are like, typically, what the Chiefs would like for you to do is to do that. You can run all you want between the 20s, and then we're going to score in three-place. It's kind of their approach.

Is there any interest in Devontae Booker, by the way? Not really. If you're stuck, sure sure he's getting work but you know i this this is i'm sure josh jacobs is going to get as much work as he can yeah start josh jacobs and how about the las vegas wide receivers no they are all a dart throw with the best dart throw being agalor aguilar or Watkins Watkins. None of them are safe. They're none of them are safe.

This is one of those, like I hate doing this because it just frustrates me when I hear people do this, but like, I like their car, but I can't tell you who's going to be successful because it could be rugs. It could be Aguilar. It could be Renfro.

The one person I feel safe with is, is Waller, but he's not getting three touchdowns out of Waller. He's going to need three touchdowns to be successful this week. Yeah. Darren Waller is a top three tight end in both formats, and he now has three straight games with 22 to 37 yards. Only two

games with more than 50 yards this season. He did that 11 times last season, 50 or more yards, or more than 50 yards, rather. So, weird year for him. He had a bad drop last week that would have been a touchdown. And Kansas City has been, you know, fairly solid against tight ends,

but Waller had five catches, 48 yards and a touchdown. And let's be honest, you're starting to start a deer. Waller chiefs, DST. Do you like them this week? Cause the,

this is not a good matchup. The, the, they don't turn the ball over two interceptions this year for Derek Carr. And they just run the ball a lot. Um, what do you think about the chiefs?

DST 70% rostered? I mean, if you're going to believe the narrative that they're going to just go into Las Vegas and destroy them, then you should start the Chiefs' DST. Because, look, Carr has not been turnover prone. He's not struggled in that regard this year at all. This could be the first game it happens. But last week was the first game he was bad at home.

Again, they ran all over Denver, so I don't know how much you want to factor into it, but I think he's going to come out throwing. If he turns the ball over, you'll be okay with the Chiefs defense. I picked them up in two leagues, so I do have some level of confidence in them. But I see where you guys have them ranked, the 8th to 12th. That's, you know, pretty much how I feel. I don't think they're going to be great, but you could do worse. Miami at Denver, you could do worse. Miami at Denver. You could do better. You can get the Dolphins DST.

Start them. So stat of the game here for Miami and Denver. In their last four games, the Broncos' run defense has been horrible. Five running backs have had 10 or more carries, and four of them averaged 5.24 yards per carry or more. They've given up six rushing touchdowns to running backs in their last four games, including four in Week 10 against Las Vegas. So that's

why we like Ahmed. And then what's this stat? Stat of the game number two. I don't even remember this one. Miami has held Tyler Lockett, Debo Samuel, Jamison Crowder, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams to less than 50 yards. And in that group,

Lockett, Debo, Crowder, Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, only Keenan Allen caught a touchdown. So that's why, Jamie, that's why we don't like the Denver wide receivers this week. Heath, do you like Jerry Judy? No. I mean, I like Jerry Judy, the player, but I don't want to start any Broncos. I don't have any of the Broncos running backs in my top 30. I don't have any of their wide receivers in my top 36.

Noah fans like 12 at tight end, so five. You don't want to start any Broncos. Okay, and then, Jamie, sum up the Dolphins. We've already talked about this game, a lot of it. Sum up the Dolphins. Tua's a streamer. Ahmed's a starter. Parker's a starter.

Gusecki is blech. Ahmed or Parker? Ahmed, non-PPR. Parker in PPR. The thing is, Parker's really having a pretty lousy year at this point. I'm starting to run out of patience here. He has one

game this year with more than 69 yards. It was against the Seahawks. Everybody crushes the Seahawks. He has seven or more targets in three of his last four games, but six, 12, and five PPR fantasy points in those three games. I can't get away from him. You guys have Parker very high.

Dave has him outside the top 40. I'd like to have a rankings dispute with him, but he's not here. I'll be Dave, and I just made my case against Parker. Tell me why I should have faith in him. Got at least seven targets in three of his last four games. I don't love Parker, but this is a bad defense. Denver's defense is not good. They're down so many guys. I think

at some point he's going to have an opportunity to find the end zone. He scored against the Rams when they didn't really have to do very much. So hopefully Tua looks for him a little bit more. I just think, you know, he's in that top 30 range. Okay. And then Mike Kosicki, Heath is higher on him than Jamie. That was a rankings dispute. Dolphins DST, I think they're top three.

They are seventh for Heath, but number two for Dave and Jamie. Start at the Dolphins. If it's Locke, he's been terrible. And if it's Rippon, he had three interceptions in the first time that he played. Jets and Chargers, our last game. Stat of the game, a running back has scored 11 or more non-PPR fantasy points, 13 or more PPR fantasy points

in seven straight games against the Chargers. That's really good. Look, we'll let Michael P Ryan make it eight in a row. Well, P Ryan's got one game this season with double digits and carries, and he scored 13 PPR points in that game. So if they're going to really commit to him,

like they say they are, then, you know, there's an opportunity here. You know, jets are getting backed and back. You know, he was banged up in that game against the Patriots,

so that'll help the offensive line. And Flacco just challenges defenses a little bit differently than Sam Donald does. So I think Pirine's in that flex conversation. He's not better than any of the other replacement options that you picked up, but he's better than the Baltimore running backs, for example. He's better than the Broncos running backs

if you want to buy into that as well. So there's an opportunity here for Piran to be successful this week. Would you guys start LaMichael Piran or Jerry Judy? Piran. Piran. Regardless of format. Yeah. Okay.

Jamison Crowder is a must start. Justin Herbert is a must start. And then Kalen Balazs is right around 16th in the rankings. We've talked a lot about him. Who's a better start, Kalen Balazs is right around 16th in the rankings. We've talked a lot about him. Who's a better start Kalen Balazs or Mike Williams? Balazs. Mike Williams or P Ryan. I think that's our P Ryan.

I would say P Ryan, but it's close. And then Hunter Henry is worth starting top eight jets are allowing the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends. Yeah. You know what it is. I mean, he just had Henry like last week.

What was a great 30 yards, but he did score. So he probably has to score. Yeah. Cool. Chargers. DST is top five. So Heath,

you like the chargers over the dolphins DST. Yeah. Okay. And Jamie does not, but they're close. Both are practicing full. That's a great sign for the Chargers defense. You know, they're not playing as well as they were probably expected to,

but injury is again a problem. One thing for Jamison Crowder to note, and it's probably not going to happen, but they did open the window for Chris Harris to return. And so if Harris does come back, that makes their defense a lot better and can make things a little bit tougher on Crowder. But my guess is based on what we've seen from this,

every time a player's IR window has opened, they haven't played that week, at least for the most part. Actually, yeah, I was reading about that this morning and right now, Chris Harris not expected to play. So thank you for bringing that up, but probably not going to play this week. And that would be a big deal

because he would probably cover Jameson Crowder. And that is it for today's show. We got six more games for you tomorrow. We've got Twitch for you at 4 p.m. Eastern. We'll give you some starter sit advice and get ready for the Thursday night game. I want to thank Heath and Jamie and Ben.

I'm Adam. Thanks to all of you for listening. Have a great Thursday night. We'll talk to you Friday.