Fantasy Football Today - Start or Sit (AFC) and Thursday Night Updates (12/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 2, 2021

We love Elijah Mitchell and Jamaal Williams in what is an interesting week for RBs. A lot of the waiver wire guys are going to be must start options. Who are we avoiding in Week 13 (6:15)? The Bengals... passing game makes us nervous ... News and notes (12:00) with updates thoughts on the Thursday night guys including Amari Cooper, Taysom Hill and the Saints backfield. Note: we recorded this just before Alvin Kamara was ruled out. Start Mark Ingram! ... Then we answer one big question for each game that we'll preview today (19:15) and debate Elijah Moore against the Eagles (24:40) ... Start or Sit for Chargers-Bengals (28:00), Football Team-Raiders (34:00), Ravens-Steelers (44:00), Giants-Dolphins (49:30), Broncos-Chiefs (58:50), Patriots-Bills (1:04:30) and Colts-Texans (1:12:00) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:38 Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions conditions must be 19 years of age or older Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly gambling problem for free assistance. Call the Connex Ontario helpline at 1-866-531-2600. Bet MGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. We have got seven AFC home games to take a look at. Joe Burrow.
Starting point is 00:01:33 Is he playing poorly right now? Depends on who you ask. Can he have a big game against the Chargers? Any Bills running backs or Patriots running backs this week? Probably not. Any Saquon Barkley this week? See if maybe you want to avoid him. Can Chase Claypool keep it going? We'll answer those questions
Starting point is 00:01:48 as we take a look at seven games on today's show. And we got a lot of Thursday night updates for you as well. So we'll get to that in just a moment. I'm Adam Azer with Heath Cummings and Jamie Eisenberg. Hey, Jamie. Morning. Good morning.
Starting point is 00:02:03 How you feeling about this week? Exciting week? You don't say good morning to Heath? I already did. Heath and I talked for like 10 minutes already. Hey, Heath. Yeah, I don't know how I'm feeling about this week. I just tweeted like there's a list of long guys that I don't really feel comfortable with how I'm ranking them. I don't, and I'm not even including Elijah Moore in that, who I know we're going to argue
Starting point is 00:02:26 about in just a minute, but I'm really struggling with more guys this week, it seems like, than normal. Give me a few. I'll tell you where to rank them. There's three quarterbacks, Russell Wilson, Taysom Hill, and Joe Burrow. I would go Burrow, Wilson, Hill. You're welcome. I currently have it Hill, Wilson, Burrow.
Starting point is 00:02:45 So you're complete opposite. Perfect. Good job. I read two articles about Burrow this week. One on CBS, one on ESPN. One about not being a good prospect? He wasn't. Chris Trapasso on CBS, and I think – who was it?
Starting point is 00:03:01 I'll look it up on ESPN. Both analysts watched the game and said Joe Burrow played great last week. So I think his numbers are not reflecting that he's playing pretty well lately. Oh, you can play great and not be a good fantasy quarterback. Yep. Sure. Yeah, I mean, they're running the ball so much. I get that.
Starting point is 00:03:18 He's averaging 28 pass attempts in wins this season. And he's had a couple games where he throws a 75-yard touchdown pass to Jamar Chase, and so that's okay. But I just think the way this Chargers defense is set up, just begging you to run against them. The Bengals will be more than happy to do that. Last thing on that game. That's actually the first game we'll look at. I think it's one of the more interesting games. Asante Samuel, the Chargers, when they've had both of their starting cornerbacks, healthy Davis and Samuel, they've been terrific against the pass. When they've been missing either one of them, I think there was one game they maybe missed both,
Starting point is 00:03:51 but when they've been missing one of them, they've struggled a little bit. So that's something we'll keep an eye on. He's in the concussion protocol, missed last week's game. Jamie, give me the player you love. Give me the start of the week. Elijah Mitchell. Love the setup for him. Coming off the game that he had last week, no of the week. Elijah Mitchell. Love the setup for him coming off the game
Starting point is 00:04:05 that he had last week. No Debo Samuel. 27 carries, five catches. You're looking at a Seattle defense that has to be exhausted after playing Monday night with all the snaps that they played
Starting point is 00:04:14 and they typically play, but cross-country trip. And so, I was surprised when I was looking at the start percentages for these guys. And Mitchell was,
Starting point is 00:04:24 he's going gonna obviously creep up higher but he was below 50 percent last week and when I started writing this on Wednesday was in the 60s so I don't know if people are hesitant about it did the radio show this morning somebody was asking me to defend it like it was you know you're sitting Elijah Mitchell um I I think he's gonna have a top five week uh I'm I'm starting him over ezekiel elliott saquon barkley um alvin kamara uh he's he's in my top five madison uh no madison is in a better spot um madison uh i mean mitchell's uh you know i i think you know close at least for the way i approach it's closer to a more obvious start than the guys i typically use. Madison, to me, would be much more of a must-start guy
Starting point is 00:05:07 just knowing what he's done. Okay. Heath, how about you? Player you love? I'll stay at the running back position, and I'll go with Jamal Williams. This Lions offense, as we thought they might, has just centered their offense around running back touches, and that's partially because they don't have any good wide receivers. And TJ Hawkins has not taken the leap that hoped,
Starting point is 00:05:27 but I think you'll see 20 plus touches for Jamal Williams. I wouldn't be surprised if five or six of those are catches. I said earlier in the week, he came out at like number seven in my projections and I'd kind of moved him down to 13 or 14, but then I started looking at it and I was like, do I really need to rank josh jacobs or saquon barkley or david montgomery or naji harris ahead of jamal williams no i don't so i moved jamal williams back up and he's now number nine just one spot behind elijah
Starting point is 00:05:57 mitchell i think the name that jumps out there is naji harris and people might say how could you consider starting jamal williams over naji har Harris so I get it but explain your thought process there I'm just like as bad as the Lions are I'm not sure that the Steelers are going to be any better this week in fact I think their implied point totals might be exactly the same the Lions have a much better offensive line so I think Williams is going to be more efficient in the running game, and I wouldn't necessarily expect Najee Harris to do more in the passing game. And Harris, you know, you talked about Joe Burrow's splits, pass attempts, and wins and losses. Harris, you look at his carries and wins and losses, you know, when they were winning, I think they won four in a row and they had a tie, wins and ties.
Starting point is 00:06:46 He gets like 20 plus carries every game. He doesn't come close to that in the losses, at least the last two, but they got blown out. But all right, that's an interesting one. And Pittsburgh, Baltimore, that's going to be kind of an interesting game because usually that's a defensive struggle, but I'm not quite sure what those defenses have this year.
Starting point is 00:07:03 Let's go to players to avoid. Jamie, who are you sitting this week? Joe Burrow. You know, it's one of those situations where he's a good quarterback. The Bengals are playing fantastic, but this is the run funnel of all run funnels against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Starting point is 00:07:20 And I know, Adam, you keep saying that they're talking about being better against the run, that they're hoping to get guys back that will help them against the run. They can't stop the run. And so Joe Mixon is just on a tear right now. So I don't expect Burrow's fantasy production to change dramatically. I think his ceiling is going to be around 22 points. So he can still be a low-end starter for you.
Starting point is 00:07:38 And I don't know if you necessarily need to make a transaction. I kind of agree with Heath that I wouldn't be surprised if Taysom Hill is better. But I don't think I'm dropping somebody to pick up Taysom Hill to start him over Joe Burrow unless I have the roster spots to play with. I think just to defend my honor here, when they have Justin Jones and
Starting point is 00:07:56 Linval Joseph healthy, they've been very good against the run. But that's not going to preclude me from starting Mix mixing or anything like that and i don't know what joseph's status will be but they truly did improve when jones came back from missing almost all of the season and then he came but i saw something and i don't remember where it was but they they are running a lot of light boxes this year just kind of
Starting point is 00:08:21 begging teams to run against them and it may be when they're fully healthy, they can defend the run better out of those sets. But I don't think this is a situation where the Chargers are trying to necessarily be good against the run. I think they're one of those teams, analytically minded, that knows that it's much, much better
Starting point is 00:08:40 if you can get the other team to run the ball against you more than they pass it. Right. Okay. And who are you sitting heath i'm trying to sit t higgins and it's kind of attached to joe burrow it's kind of attached to just the way that we think that game will go i mean we're going to break down the whole bingles chargers game before we even get to it but i i just i don't think that the chargers are going to put up a big number against the bingles defense and i don't think that the Chargers are going to put up a big number against the Bengals' defense, and I don't think that the Bengals are going to have a great reason to throw a ton of passes.
Starting point is 00:09:09 So I think Higgins is more of a boom-bust number three wide receiver this week. I'd still start him over the guys like Mike Williams and such, but he's not currently in my top 30. So you'd start Elijah Moore over him? I would start Elijah Moore over him. Would you start Devontae Smith at the Jets or Tee Higgins? I have Devontae Smith ahead of Tee Higgins as well. Jamie, you like Higgins a little more.
Starting point is 00:09:32 Number two wide receiver, borderline? Borderline. You know, I think I saw somebody post this. I don't know where it was. Maybe somebody on Twitter, so I apologize for not referencing it. But I think in the games where Tee Higgins has been healthy, he has more targets than Jamar Chase.
Starting point is 00:09:48 Really? Interesting. So it's not like Joe Burrow is ignoring him completely, but it kind of goes hand in hand with Burrow. I don't disagree with Heath. I don't think you should necessarily look at last week's game and say, okay, this is who Tee Higgins is going to be rest of season. It was his first touchdown since week two. He's been, for the most part, I don't want to say disappointing,
Starting point is 00:10:08 but, you know, just kind of leaving you a little bit, you know, empty with what your expectations were. So it's not a slam dunk, but it's not a lot of great receivers once you get past about, you know, 25, 26 guys. So I think he's still in that conversation. Something to consider for T Higgins. I'd prefer Moralizing more personally. Okay.
Starting point is 00:10:24 Something to consider for T Higgins, his ADOT. And more personally. Okay. Something to consider for T Higgins, his ADOT. And I can't tell you what his ADOT is going to be, but in three of his last four games, he has 78 or more yards. He has a 97, 78 and 114 yards. His ADOT,
Starting point is 00:10:38 average depth of target. So basically where Joe Burrow is throwing the ball, throwing a deep, but 16 yards or more in all three of those games. That is extremely high for an average depth of target. Those are his only three games all season with an ADOT higher than 12 yards. So he's been used in three of the last four games downfield a lot, and he has come through.
Starting point is 00:10:59 That makes him a pretty volatile wide receiver most likely. Tough to trust. The Chargers don't give up a lot of big pass plays but neither do some of the other teams that that uh higgins had success against recently like pittsburgh so a lot to think about i'm really wondering and i don't think i can find this in time i'm sure it's somewhere and i expect we'll get them maybe somebody in the chat will know where it is but i'd be curious with the way the chargers are playing defense this year what their average a dot allowed is to wide receivers um yeah i don't know i would think
Starting point is 00:11:33 that they would rank towards the bottom of the league in that but i don't know for sure so i i wouldn't want to i mean it's just kind of a guess okay um all right well i don't know i do know that if you want to have fun and take part in these start or sit discussions, you can do it all season long at cbssports.com slash start sit. Play the FFT start sit challenge. Each week, answer 10 start sit questions to win a customized Trophy Smack Championship belt with your name engraved. And the overall winner for the season wins $1,000 and a guest appearance on the podcast. One question this week is Hunter Renfro, Darnell Mooney, or Travis Kelsey.
Starting point is 00:12:14 So who's going to score the most in half PPR? Renfro, Mooney, or Kelsey, guys? I mean, it's Kelsey. Come on. All right. All right. It's Kelsey. I didn't write the question.
Starting point is 00:12:24 All right. Go to cbssports.com slash start sit to play. I bet Schrager wrote it. Schrager. Mom. By the way, Spotify. If you have Spotify, they do this very cool thing. The Spotify wrapped 2021 Spotify wrapped is out.
Starting point is 00:12:39 Be sure to tweet us how many minutes you spent streaming FFT on Spotify in 2021. Okay. We got a ton of news and notes. We're going to start with the Thursday stuff. Taysom Hill is going to start tonight against Dallas. So we'll kick it right there, kick it off right there. Jamie, where'd you rank Taysom Hill? I think 14, but he's definitely in the streaming conversation. And again, if you want to start him over Joe Burrow or Russell Wilson,
Starting point is 00:13:04 I certainly understand that sentiment. Hopefully he's the guy we saw in the four games that he started last year. And I know that seems like saying you want to watch paint dry because it wasn't pretty, but he got you fantasy production because he runs. And so 22 or more fantasy points in three or four games. So I'm, I'm,
Starting point is 00:13:26 I'm hopeful. I'm really hopeful that that's the guy and his foot is okay and there's no issues and he throws the ball a little bit of success certainly to alvin camaro you expect camaro to play i do i'm hopeful uh it's there's no certainty but i'm hopeful okay heath so I think you're probably in about the same boat with Taysom Hill, right? Borderline top 12 quarterback. I would start him over Burrow. The one I really struggle with is Russell Wilson. But he's my favorite streamer. So if you're streaming, that's who I'd stream with.
Starting point is 00:13:58 Carson Wentz or Taysom Hill? Taysom Hill. Derek Carr or Taysom Hill? Derek Carr. Okay. So, Camara. Taysom Hill Derek Carr or Taysom Hill Derek Carr okay so Camara obviously if Camara doesn't play we're going to love Mark Ingram but if Camara does play
Starting point is 00:14:13 does he crack your top 12 not me Jamie top 12 Camara he's borderline again it's more of a hope than it is a logic thing. I think he broke it down pretty well. I'm sure you guys talked about this on Wednesday. He definitely mentioned on HQ that with Taysom Hill running
Starting point is 00:14:35 and what we saw in the involvement for Kamara in the passing game last season with him and the presence of Mark Ingram, you just don't know how many, I don't want to say high-level touches or traditional touches because I still think he's going to be the lead running back and hopefully get those opportunities that we're used to seeing, but it could be limited. So just keep that in mind. So if you want to start Jamal Williams over him, Boston Scott over him,
Starting point is 00:14:55 I'm starting Liza Mitchell over him, and Boston Scott would be if he's by himself in Philadelphia. Right, that's a little – I don't know that we can do that right now. I'm sorry, yes. You can't take that into account with the Eagles guys. You're right, because there's a night game. But if you want to start Jamal Williams over him, based on what we know,
Starting point is 00:15:10 you want to start, you know, take a risk on Sonny Michel, you know, based on if Daryl Henderson misses another practice, I get it. I would still start Alvin Kamara, though. I'm not going to get cute with those things. Okay. And Amari Cooper is going to play. By the way, both Saints offensive tackles are questionable. That's a big deal. But Amari Cooper is going to play. By the way, both Saints offensive tackles are questionable.
Starting point is 00:15:25 That's a big deal. But Amari Cooper is going to play tonight. Heath, did he crack your top 30? He did crack my top 30. He's right in the Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf. I have no idea what to do with these guys' range. Borderline number two wide receivers. I think the interesting thing is if if all three cowboys
Starting point is 00:15:47 wide receivers are healthy who's going to see the most latimore i would assume it's not going to be lamb because he's going to go into the slot the most but i also think cooper is probably going to go in the slot more than gallup does so i i don't hate his chances of getting into the end zone, and I think he's probably going to get six or seven targets, maybe eight. So he's a borderline start. I'd like it if I had two receivers better, three receivers better, but I probably don't. Would you guys start Myles Gaskin or Amari Cooper?
Starting point is 00:16:19 Gaskin. Yeah, Gaskin. All right, the rest of the news and notes. Antonio Brown is going to be out at least the next two weeks seattle signed adrian peterson of the practice squad you can interrupt me if i'm wrong but i assume that we don't have any interest in adding adrian peterson to our fantasy football teams i don't get it why i yeah i don't know they need help uh daniel j Jones's neck injury.
Starting point is 00:16:45 This is the weirdest thing. They're talking about, no, as of right now, it's not considered season ending. And then at the same time, he's expected to practice all week. So which Giants quarterback do you think starts this week as of right now? Phil Simms.
Starting point is 00:17:01 We're projecting Glennon. And actually, I like Saquon a little bit more if it is Glennon. Yeah. Okay. So that was the benefit. I don't like anybody else more, but okay. And yeah,
Starting point is 00:17:15 Cadareous Tony and Sterling Shepard did not practice. Neither did cornerback Adoree Jackson. Devante Parker is practicing this week. It doesn't mean he will play, but he's, you know, he's had a very underrated season. When you look at his competition, he's faced the
Starting point is 00:17:27 Bills twice, the Patriots, the Raiders. They're really good against wide receivers. He tore up the Colts. The only good matchup he's had is at seven or more targets in every game. Don't sleep on Devontae Parker. There's only one thing that's beat him so far. And that is Jacoby Brissett. No, his shoulder. Oh, his shoulder, yeah.
Starting point is 00:17:43 Phillip Lindsey is going to have an opportunity for a bigger role. Okay, we'll see. Jalen Hurts looks like he's going to play. Miles Sanders making progress. Eagles optimistic for center Jason Kelsey. JD McKissick has a concussion, so we'll see if he can get out of the protocol by Sunday at Las Vegas. DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray.
Starting point is 00:18:08 We just don't, do we know anything right now? I mean, it seems up in the air with those two guys. I'm under the assumption that they're playing. So I think that's where you have to approach it right now. But again, you know, if you're concerned about Kyler and you have Taysom Hill, that could be a tough decision you have to make tonight. Yeah, that's, that's tough, and it's really, really tough for me with Hopkins and Cooper.
Starting point is 00:18:32 I'd obviously start Lamb over him, and I think if it was Hopkins and Gallup, I'd probably just try to wait it out with Hopkins. But Cooper's a real... Because you don't even know for sure how much Cooper's going to play. Right. Yeah, I'd play Cooper. All right, Pat Fryer, Muth practiced in full.
Starting point is 00:18:48 He just needs to clear the concussion protocol, but that's a good sign. Daryl Henderson and Odell Beckham both mispracticed. Sean McVay sounding optimistic about both Henderson and Beckham. New England safety Kyle Duggar is on the reserve COVID list, the head of this showdown at Buffalo. Cole Komet and Alan Robinson both mispracticed. I'm guessing we don't expect Robinson. Do we expect Komet?
Starting point is 00:19:08 I would hope so. I mean, they've had plenty of time, so just keep that in mind. Darren Waller mispracticed and Foster Moreau, as of yesterday, was the most added player in CBS Leagues. But another big thing here is Carl Nassib for the Raiders. He is week to week with a knee injury, and that's the strength
Starting point is 00:19:24 of Las Vegas' defense, that pass rush. Chase Edmonds could be back next week. DeAndre Swift could miss multiple weeks, according to ESPN. Carolina cornerback Dante Jackson out for the season. That's a tough hit for IDP leagues. That guy's a tackling machine. And that's pretty much all I've got. So, here's a new segment i'm going to look at we got
Starting point is 00:19:46 seven games we're looking at today i'm going to give you a quick question we can spend up to 30 seconds that's all we have to do just a quick overview of the game for players that might be kind of you know on the fence in terms of whether or not we start them here we go chargers at Bengals. Is this Mike Williams week? I mean, every week is Mike Williams week. It's a week to do what? To be good. Are you going to ask us any questions we could possibly answer with any certainty? That wouldn't be fun.
Starting point is 00:20:19 Okay. The answer is no. Yeah. I was annoyed that I had to start in one I have to start him one week, one league. Who is the best? Okay, Washington, Las Vegas. Who is the best quarterback in this game? Washington, Las Vegas.
Starting point is 00:20:34 Cor. Derek Cor. The one facing the Washington defense. Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Chase Claypool or Devante Freeman, who's a better flex? I'll take Claypool and PPR. I know I have them really, really close. I'll go Claypool and PPR as well.
Starting point is 00:20:55 Okay, Baltimore. We'll talk about this in a bit, but Baltimore, I say it every week now. They basically give up the most big plays to wide receiver in the passing game. It's so weird because that's all they give up. Yes, they give up very few catches, but the most yards per catch to wide receiver in the passing game. It's so weird because that's all they give up. Yes, they give up very few catches, but the most yards per catch to wide receivers. Right. Every game, they have one or two complete breakdowns in the secondary, and other than that,
Starting point is 00:21:14 they're pretty good defense. Great run defense, too. All right, Giants-Dolphins. Who's the best running back in this game? Barkley. Barkley is the best running back in this game. Gaskin is the better fantasy runner. Heath, you're starting Barkley over Gaskin?
Starting point is 00:21:30 I am starting Barkley over Gaskin. Right. They were back-to-back when I had Daniel Jones as the quarterback. Barkley moved up like five spots when I put Glennon in. I don't get that. I believe the Dolphins' last five weeks have been the best fantasy defense against opposing running backs. Yeah, they have not allowed a touchdown
Starting point is 00:21:50 and something like 3.8 yards per carry to running backs. Yeah, and now you have potentially Mike Glennon. Good luck. Why is Glennon better for Barkley? He's not as mobile. I would expect additional running back targets, and he's not going to run the ball seven or eight times.
Starting point is 00:22:08 So those are more plays where Barkley could get carries or receptions. I think the concern would be as less time of possession. If this offense is worse with Glennon, which it could be better, but if the way the dolphins defense is playing just as a whole, if Glennon stinks, which is highly likely, then he's not going to be on the field as much.
Starting point is 00:22:28 This is a spotlight game for sure. And we'll see if Daniel Jones... Spotlight for who? I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding. It was a joke. It was a joke, yeah. It's a terrible game.
Starting point is 00:22:38 Daniel, I don't know that he's going to run. I mean, every time he runs, he gets hurt. Concussion, neck strain. All right, Denver, Kansas City. Is this game competitive? Is this game strain. Denver, Kansas City. Is this game competitive? Is this game competitive? Denver, Kansas City. The Chiefs pretty much never blow anybody out. Except the Raiders two weeks ago, three weeks ago.
Starting point is 00:22:56 Well, it's the Raiders. Well, it's important. Yeah, I would guess it will be. All right, it's big for the Denver running backs. It needs to be competitive. And New England Buffalo's big for the Denver running backs. Needs to be competitive. And New England Buffalo, who is the best running back in this game? Damien Harris.
Starting point is 00:23:14 Yeah. I have Singletary projected the highest in PPR, but I moved Damien Harris ahead of him. I would really like it if I could, for the most part, I would really like it if I could just avoid this game. I mean, if you have Josh Allen or Stevan Diggs, you have to start him, but I don't want to be a part of this game.
Starting point is 00:23:35 Okay, and then finally, Indianapolis at Houston. T.Y. Hilton magic this week? Yes, he scores again. You know that I'm not going to rank it that way but probably jv did you know what the numbers are against this team oh i know yeah i mean i know generally that he's amazing against them but i don't do you have specific numbers yeah let me get it hold on it's uh 19
Starting point is 00:24:00 games played against the texans and in those 19 games, he has this I do know, which is amazing. 160 targets against the Texans. Wow. For 19 games in his career against the Texans. 101 catches, 1,798 yards, and 11 touchdowns on 160 targets. It's amazing. Almost 1,800 yards in 19 games. By the way, I said earlier that I was reading on ESPN about Joe Burrow.
Starting point is 00:24:34 It was Mike Tannenbaum. He was at the game. He covered it, and he said Burrow looked great last week. So I just wanted to clarify that. T.Y. Hilton had more yards in week number six against the Texans when he caught four passes for 80 yards than he has in the rest of his games this year combined. He also has not played more than 61% of the snaps in any game. He's not a full-time player,
Starting point is 00:25:04 and I don't think they're going to throw maybe but 25 or 30 passes. So it really just depends on them just telling Michael Pittman, sorry, we're going to throw the ball to T.Y. Hilton this game because it's the Texans. And they only threw 20 times. That's kind of what has to happen for him to be good. I think Wentz threw 20 or 21 passes the last time they played. That's really low.
Starting point is 00:25:27 Okay, we have one rankings dispute. The only one I'm going to bring up because it's a game that we're looking at tomorrow, actually. There are a lot of AFC home games this week, but we'll look at it tomorrow. It's Jets hosting the Eagles, and it's Elijah Moore. Now, Dave and Jamie are in agreement here that Moore is just outside the top 30, whereas Heath has Elijah Moore 19th
Starting point is 00:25:49 against the Philadelphia Eagles. So, Heath, make the case for Elijah Moore. I was going to say, I'm definitely the weird one here. Dave and Jamie are aligned with the industry, and I've just... Elijah Moore, for a month, was the best wide receiver in fantasy. And then last week,
Starting point is 00:26:10 Zach Wilson comes back and he has a bad game where he scores nine PPR fantasy points, but gets a 33% target share. And I just expect that he's going to see a third of the team's targets. They're not going to throw 24 passes again, which is probably going to be a 10 target game, which makes him a must start wide receiver for me. You look at him like the one I really, I think it seems outlandish probably,
Starting point is 00:26:30 is him versus DK Metcalf. He's scored more fantasy points since week five than DK Metcalf has. Who hasn't? Well, DK Metcalf's the number 22 wide receiver since week five. That includes some of his good games. Okay.
Starting point is 00:26:46 Some of his Geno Smith games. Right. So, I mean, he's as bad as he was and even not playing for a while. What he did over that month puts him at wide receiver 19 since week five. Okay. Jamie, you're sitting Elijah Morris outside your top 30. Yeah. I mean, I would like to in a two-receiver league. In a three-receiver league, I'm still starting him.
Starting point is 00:27:10 And I have a tough decision in one of my leagues between him and T. Higgins. It's not so much about what his target share opportunity is and his quarterback play. It's about his matchup. I mean, Darius Slay has erased every top receiver that he's come against for the most part this season when he's been placed on that guy and so will he be the guy on on elijah moore i don't know um i don't know if he's gonna get that respect i don't know if cory davis coming back if he does changes things at all but i would imagine if you're darius slay and you're looking at the jets offense you're saying i'm going to try and take away
Starting point is 00:27:40 and shadow elijah moore and you know the numbers bear it out that number one receivers against his team for the majority of the season have been terrible. I don't think Slay, in fact, I can tell you, he did not shadow Kenny Galladay last week. I think a lot of times he stays at left cornerback. So just keep that in mind. I'm not sure how much time he'll spend on Elijah Moore. But I really don't know.
Starting point is 00:28:04 I think, I know Elijah Moore has only been in the slot about 15% of the snaps, but I think he's moved around quite a bit. I'm looking at the chart from last game. He had no targets on the right side of the field, which is where Slay would be. He had two targets on the left side, and most of it was between the numbers.
Starting point is 00:28:24 So, again, I don't know how much slay he'll see. It's just a guess at this point. All righty, Chargers at Bengals. Stat of the game number one. It's not only a stat of the game, because the other one is about T. Higgins and his ADOT, and you know that. So, stat of the game.
Starting point is 00:28:42 The last four quarterbacks to face the Chargers have had passer ratings above 101. That would be Hurts, Cousins, Roethlisberger, and Bridgewater. So they have not really been very good against the pass lately, and that does coincide with the cornerback injuries that I mentioned. But you've already made it very clear that you are trying to avoid Joe Burrow this week. So I guess just to wrap that conversation up,
Starting point is 00:29:03 Jamie, who are some of the quarterbacks that you would start over Burrow that people might be like, oh, interesting? I mean, there's not much. You know, it's Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr are probably the, you know, the only names that weren't drafted ahead of him. But I don't disagree with Heath.
Starting point is 00:29:19 I think if you want to take a chance on Taysom Hill, then that's certainly suitable based on, you know, what the hope is for Hill having to do more with his legs and what Burrow is going to do more handing off to Joe Mixon. You know, if you're in the Joe Burrow camp, you want Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense to show up and get a big lead and force Burrow to throw.
Starting point is 00:29:40 And, you know, we've seen a couple times this season, like the Jacksonville game on Thursday night. There was that instance, you know, that comes to mind for sure, you know, where they were chasing points and he had to throw. We've seen a couple times this season, like the Jacksonville game on Thursday night. There was that instance that comes to mind for sure, where they were chasing points and he had to throw more. I think there's an opportunity there for Burrow to still be good, but I just don't see him scoring more than what his average has been, which is about 22
Starting point is 00:29:55 fantasy points when he's been good. Do you have Wilson ahead of him? I do. In this game, it's Mixon and Eckler are must-starts. Jamar Chase, is he still a must-start given his recent poor stretch? Yes.
Starting point is 00:30:12 But he's not a top-ten guy anymore. Okay. You've already debated T. Higgins. Jamie's got him around 25th. Heath has him around 35th. What else in this game? Keenan Allen is a must start. I don't want to just shortch.
Starting point is 00:30:27 Oh, you know, we should talk about Justin Herbert here. So you guys have him top seven. Heath has him fifth. Jamie seventh. Dave seventh. Is that a reflection of your confidence in Herbert or the state of the quarterback position at the moment? The state of the quarterback position. He moment? The state of the quarterback position.
Starting point is 00:30:46 He's been very frustrating. You know, his offense has been frustrating. It's like they have an identity crisis at times. If they were to let him play like he should be playing, you know, which is open up the offense and rely on your passing game, which includes Austin Eckler, doesn't mean get away from him by any stretch, then I think he would be an easy top five fantasy quarterback.
Starting point is 00:31:05 But you just don't know what you're going to get week to week with him. Like two games ago, run. Run more. You can do it. You don't have to run for 90 yards like you did against the Steelers, but run. If that guy shows up, then you're going to get maybe top three quarterback, maybe number one. The ADOT is so low lately.
Starting point is 00:31:22 For much of the year, I think I'd say. And the offensive line just stinks. That's kind of what it is. It's like sometimes he's just under so much pressure. Okay, Herbert or Hurts? Herbert right now. Hurts, that one's tough.
Starting point is 00:31:40 Yeah, that one's tough, but I'll go Herbert too. Star Keenan Allen, Mike Williams did we ask Mike Williams or T. Higgins I think it's I think I know the answer but Mike Williams or T. Higgins T. Higgins I mean you know you talk about
Starting point is 00:31:59 a good corner Jadoby Owuzi has been great Owuzi has been great you know a who is he excuse me has been great you know you look at some of the guys he's faced uh justin jefferson alan robinson he gave a touchdown but two catches 24 yards uh he got beat up by davante adams but marquise brown you know and dionte johnson you know those guys were good but they're frustrating you know he frustrated them so it's um you know i think you're talking about those guys get a lot more attention
Starting point is 00:32:28 than what Mike Williams is getting right now. Yeah, I've got Higgins and Williams, I think, back-to-back or two spots apart, but I would definitely start Higgins over Williams. Would you start Patriots running back over Mike Williams? In non-PPR, I would absolutely start Damian Harris over him, for sure. Yeah, in PPR, I'd still start Williams. Would you start
Starting point is 00:32:54 assuming Alvin Kamara plays tonight, would you start Mark Ingram or Tony Pollard over Mike Williams? Pollard. I would start them both over Mike Williams. I would start them both over Mike Williams. Wow, okay. I would start...
Starting point is 00:33:07 I'd start Williams over Ingram, I think. Sit Jared Cook, sit CJ Uzama, right? Yeah. Yep. I'm finished with this game. Okay, let's go to Washington at Las Vegas. But first, let's go to commercial break. We'll be right back to talk about the football team and the Raiders. Six seconds back. Just enough time to visit Shopify.com slash POS20.
Starting point is 00:33:45 Now that's an efficient ad. Eligibility requirements apply. See Shopify.com slash POS20 for details. Washington at Las Vegas. I already asked you guys, which quarterback do you like better? You said Derek Carr. I am wondering how you can have faith in Derek Carr when you have a guy who has not had a good fantasy run since Henry Ruggs, you know, since no more Henry Ruggs,
Starting point is 00:34:16 doesn't most likely have Darren Waller this week. And now you got this stinking Mariota thing that could take away a touchdown like it may have last week when Mariota ran one in. So I was a little surprised at where I saw him in your rankings. I think he's top 12, right? I think you look at the fact
Starting point is 00:34:33 that the Washington football team has not just been the worst team against quarterbacks. They've given up 20% more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than any other defense this year. And then you look at their last two weeks, and you see Cam Newton has this fantastic first game back where he's a top 10 quarterback, and then the next week looks like the worst quarterback in the history of football.
Starting point is 00:34:58 And Russell Wilson, who's maybe been the worst quarterback in the NFL the past three weeks, scores 23 fantasy points against them. It doesn't take a good situation or a good quarterback to be good against the Washington football team. It just takes a quarterback. I would argue if I were going to argue against that, I would say three weeks ago they did very well against Tom Brady, held him to 16 points. The cam game is inexcusable, but I think just watching the Monday night football game, it's not like I sat there and said, wow, Russell Wilson's carving them up. He had that late drive where he had half his points.
Starting point is 00:35:30 So that would be my argument against it. They've gotten a lot better on third down over the last few weeks. Russell missed so many throws, though. I mean, in terms of not, I'm not talking about missed throws that were intended targets. He missed wide open guys that he just didn't see. Well, and I think, intended targets he missed wide open guys that he just didn't see well and i i think and it's tough to do the angles in your head and everything but i think better throws to tyler lockett and tyler
Starting point is 00:35:53 lockett has like 180 yards and two touchdowns in that game both the times he threw lockett deep lockett didn't have anybody within 20 yards of him okay uh. All right, then start Derek Carr. Yeah, I know you say his fantasy production has been worse without Henry Ruggs, which is understandable.
Starting point is 00:36:12 You lose a key player of your offense, but you did see some signs of Deshaun Jackson doing similar things in that game last week
Starting point is 00:36:20 against the Cowboys. You know, downfield throws that some of those pass interference calls, if they're not, you know, he's not getting tackled on the ones that were actually dead.
Starting point is 00:36:27 Such bad throws, though. Yeah, but, you know, it's also, that could be a player, too. All right, but I would say that just knowing human nature, if Deshaun Jackson doesn't catch that ball and run however 30 yards, whatever it was, for a touchdown, we're not starting Derek Carr this week because he would have had, you know, 15 points or something. I mean, you know, just for the numbers, would have had 15 points or something. I mean, just
Starting point is 00:36:45 for the numbers, he's 21 fantasy points or more in four of his last six. So he's been fairly consistent. But no, I'm only looking at the games without rugs. And he's 11, 21, 10, and 21 in those games. So half. Yeah, but 11 and 10 in the
Starting point is 00:37:02 other ones. And no Waller. I mean, that's the thing. No Waller. That's a big deal. There hasn't been a whole lot of Waller lately. No, that's not true. Waller had a... What did he hit in the Philly game without Waller?
Starting point is 00:37:15 Against Dallas? Yeah, he had a good... No, in the Philly game. Well, Moreau had 6-for-60 in the touchdown. I don't know what he did. What did Derek Carr do? I don't know. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:37:24 I don't know. Oh, I look. Yeah. He probably had touchdown. I don't know what he did. What did Derek Carr do? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. Oh, I look. Yeah. He probably had a good game. But he had rugs. I think Waller's been good in the games where Carr was bad, I guess. He was 323-2-1. That's interesting.
Starting point is 00:37:40 Okay. All right. I'm not... Okay. I don't think Derek Carr is a slam dunk. I have to start Derek Carr to win my fantasy league this week. But I don't think he Carr is a slam dunk. I have to start Derek Carr to win my fantasy league this week. But I don't think he's a bad starter. I'd start him over Burrow.
Starting point is 00:37:50 I'd start him over Russell Wilson. I'd start him over Taysom Hill. That's where I come out on it. I like him. I don't love him. Okay. Updated stat of the game. Every week I'll give you this one.
Starting point is 00:38:02 It keeps getting better and better. A tight end has 70 yards or a touchdown in eight of the last nine games against the Raiders. So I think that is one of the reasons why you like Logan Thomas. And you know what? Let's stick with the Raiders real quick since we had the car discussion.
Starting point is 00:38:17 We'll come back to Logan Thomas in a moment. How do you feel about Josh Jacobs this week, Heath? I'm starting him. Borderline number one running back, but definitely a good number two running back. And I would start him over both the running backs, all four of the running backs in tonight's game. This matchup sucks, though.
Starting point is 00:38:37 They are really good against the run. Hopefully Josh Jacobs catches a bunch of passes. Thankfully he does. Okay. His two longest runs, by the way, of the year have come in the last two games. Hopefully Josh Jacobs catches a bunch of passes. Thankfully he does. Okay. His two longest runs, by the way, of the year have come in the last two games. Hopefully that's a good sign. Jamie, what do you think about Renfro and Moreau?
Starting point is 00:38:55 I mean, Renfro's a must-start guy. You can't get away from what he's been for the season, really. It feels like people are just kind of waking up to Hunter Renfro for the most part based on his start percentage. But you saw, I think, what hopefully can become without Darren Waller on the field, with some plays a little bit further down the field for him in the game against the Cowboys.
Starting point is 00:39:16 The secondary is terrible, as we've noted. And so there's an opportunity here for him to continue to be eight to nine targets, seven to eight catches. He's the go-to guy for Derek Carr, understandably so. He's very reliable. He scored in two of his last four, you know, so hopefully that continues. And if he continues to find the end zone or goals over 100 yards, I don't know what more you need for a receiver at this point.
Starting point is 00:39:38 Okay, and then Moreau. Would you start Moreau over, say, Mike Isiki, Dalton Schultz tonight? Definitely over Schultz. I'm starting him over Kyle Pitts. I would start him over Dawson Knox. I would start him over Noah Fant. I think you're going to see six-plus targets and an opportunity here to be successful against a team
Starting point is 00:40:02 that struggled against tight ends and certainly has a bad secondary to be with. Man, I have him behind, I think, every one of those guys, and with zero amount of confidence. And the reason why, I've got Foster Moreau, Noah Fant, Gerald Everett, Logan Thomas, Dawson Knox, Dalton Schultz, and Zach Ertz all projected for six targets. So three of those guys are probably going to score a touchdown and be top 12 tight ends this week, and three of those guys are not.
Starting point is 00:40:31 And for the Washington football team, do you like Antonio Gibson or Josh Jacobs this week? Gibson if there's no McKissick for sure. Without McKissick, I've gibson as a top 12 running back if mckissick's back then then gibson's more of a number two but still a start uh gibson's my favorite running back in this game with or without mckissick he's getting so much work lately but they have won three games in a row and he's had 24 19 and 29 carries in six losses this year. He has 20 carries twice, but the other games are 12, 10, 14, and 8 carries. So, you know, and usually he's a three-catch guy.
Starting point is 00:41:11 Last week was an exception. How many red zone targets for Kyle Pitts this season? Oh, two. Nine. Okay, sorry, green zone. How many green zone? Looks like nine. Kyle Pitts has nine targets inside the 10-yard line?
Starting point is 00:41:25 No, he has five. Sorry. How many red zone targets for Foster Moreau this season? Red zone. Seven. Eight. Six. Four.
Starting point is 00:41:38 I win. Part-time player versus full-time player. That's interesting. Kind of true. If you went Waller versus Pitts, you know, that'd be something. Start or sit JD McKissick if he plays? Waller has 11 red zone targets.
Starting point is 00:41:53 I would sit McKissick. I would start McKissick in PPR as a flex. McKissick or Mike Williams? McKissick. I'd probably go Mike Williams. Terry McLaurin. Is it going to be one of his big games or one of his bad games?
Starting point is 00:42:11 His bad games aren't that bad. They are 62 or fewer yards and no touchdowns, seven times in 11 games. Yeah, I'm still starting. Okay. Vegas allows the six fewest fantasy points to the wide receivers, but no Carl Nassib. That's a big deal.
Starting point is 00:42:26 All right, then. Logan Thomas or Foster Morell? That's actually a good question. Ask that at the top. Logan Thomas or Foster Morell? Thomas. That's close. Thomas.
Starting point is 00:42:34 And it's close. Keep an eye on Thomas, though. He showed up on Ninja Report again on Wednesday. Okay. And that is finished with this game. Let's go to... I wonder how long that's going to i wonder how long that's gonna last how long that's gonna be funny oh no i didn't talk about heineke i'm sorry we have to talk about taylor heineke jamie how do you feel about heineke as a streamer i like him behind tasem hill um i would still start
Starting point is 00:42:57 burl over him i would still start uh russell wilson over him you. It's funny because, and granted, he was robbed of the Logan Thomas touchdown, but in last week's game, he really only has one good game in this stretch of games. I think it's like one game over 17 fantasy points in his last five or so. So will he reach the ceiling? And with Antonio Gibson in the run game doing as well as it is, it's hard to necessarily think that that's going to be the case because they should be able to run on the Raiders. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:33 You know why it is, Jamie? He has zero or one touchdown in six of his last seven games. He either has like a three-touchdown game or a zero or one. He almost always has one touchdown pass. It's killing his fantasy numbers. Yeah, I mean, you know, it's the byproduct of teams becoming better. Yeah, all right. Let's go to Baltimore.
Starting point is 00:43:55 If you still have the opportunity. I like Tua better this week and Taysom Hill better of the streaming guys. Okay. Let's go to Baltimore at Pittsburgh. In their last three games, the Ravens gave up 16 points to miami to their offense my made a pick sig or a fumble recovery for a touchdown 16 points to the dolphins offense 13 points at chicago 10 points against cleveland now is that because the teams they face stunk yeah there's mostly jacoby persett and where do those offenses rank in relation to the current Pittsburgh Steelers?
Starting point is 00:44:28 I mean, it's hard to say because I don't... Was it Dalton or was it Fields? I think, oh, they knocked Brissett out of the game and they knocked Fields out of the game. And then last week, you know, the Browns are just such a shell of themselves right now. And Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has allowed 41 points in back-to-back games. And what's the deal with the Pittsburgh defense?
Starting point is 00:44:45 So in terms of Watt, Hayden, are they both? Hayden's back, right? Let's double-check. I'm not sure. I'll check. Okay. But I don't think, as of right now, we're not expecting Watt, but I think he could be cleared. He's on the reserve COVID list.
Starting point is 00:45:00 Okay. Don't hate him, not practice. All right, so we'll keep an eye on that. This is one of those games, like everything that I think matters and is predictive tells me that the Ravens should just blow the Steelers out. The Steelers season should be over after this game. But it's at Pittsburgh and it's a division game,
Starting point is 00:45:21 and so they'll probably find some way. Mike Tomlin will probably find a way to keep it close and they might even sneak out a victory but looking at the matchup on paper the Steelers don't deserve to be in this game I probably say this every time these two teams play this is my favorite football rivalry I freaking
Starting point is 00:45:38 love yeah yes I love it I don't know how much longer that's going to last because the Steelers are painful but yeah I love it. I don't know how much longer that's going to last because the Steelers are painful, but yeah, I love this game. Very excited. All right, here's the stat of the game. The Steelers have allowed 10 touchdowns to running backs all since week six.
Starting point is 00:45:56 Their first five games, they didn't allow one, and now they allow rushing touchdowns, receiving touchdowns to running backs all the time. So we've talked about the Patriots guys. Who else? Guys like Mike Williams, T. Higgins. Jamie, where is Devontae Freeman in the flex list? I would start him over Williams.
Starting point is 00:46:17 I would start him over Pollard and Ingram tonight. I'm trying to think. I'd start him over Higgins. So he's at the top of the list, I think. He's one of two things in your lineup. He's either a really bad number two running back or a great flex. His best game since Latavius Murray has returned
Starting point is 00:46:42 has been without Lamar Jackson. I think it's, what, three? Two or three games? So it's not a big sample size. Two games. It was when Tyler Huntley started and threw him the ball. Right. But didn't he have 16 carries last week, too?
Starting point is 00:46:52 Yeah, I'm just saying it was a fancy production. Yes, right. He had six catches in that game, right? And then last week he only won. I think, you know, you mentioned that the Steelers and their struggles, the Ravens' offense looked terrible against the Browns. And,
Starting point is 00:47:06 you know, Lamar Jackson said he played like a rookie. I think the offensive line is a bit of a concern still, even if there is no TJ watt, you know, they just haven't been playing well because of injuries. So, I mean,
Starting point is 00:47:16 you're obviously starting Lamar Jackson, starting Marquise Brown. He has a touchdown in three of his last four against Pittsburgh and, and Freeman and Andrews, you know, and Andrews obviously, but in Freeman is in the flex conversation but i don't know like where the ceiling is for all these guys you know hopefully
Starting point is 00:47:29 we get the ceiling for lamar and andrews and brown because they're must starts but uh just a little bad look bad uh against cleveland that said jackson is the top three quarterback for everyone hey uh rashad bateman well that's's again, you asked the question about Herbert. It's a reflection of the quarterback position this week. I always have so much confidence in Lamar Jackson. Most weeks he doesn't justify it. I always expect him to score
Starting point is 00:47:56 a million points. I think Dave did too. I think I have number one right now. I moved him up. Okay. Bateman and Claypool, I guess, because nobody's starting. We'll talk for Army in a second. Nobody's starting Ben.
Starting point is 00:48:11 I know Najee Harris. It's not a good matchup, but I think most people are going to start Najee Harris. So, yeah, Claypool and Bateman. Heath, talk about these two wide receivers. Claypool I like quite a bit more than Bateman. Heath, talk about these two wide receivers. Claypool, I like quite a bit more than Bateman. I would view him as a number three wide receiver, number two wide receiver even, borderline number two,
Starting point is 00:48:34 right in that lock at Metcalf-Cooper range, but I would actually start him over those three. Bateman is a boom-bust flex for me. Okay. Do we want to talk about Najee Harris? Is it worth it? Because I think, Heath, you said you'd start Jamal Williams over him. I mean, there's a lot of guys who you wouldn't think that we would be.
Starting point is 00:48:56 You're starting Alexander Madison over him. I'd start Leonard Fournette over him. I'd start James Conner, Antonio Gibson, Jamal Williams, Mitchell, Cordero, but he's still a top 15 running back, so I'm still starting him. Pat Fryermuth, if he's cleared, is he going to be ahead or behind Logan Thomas
Starting point is 00:49:18 and Foster Moreau? Behind Thomas, ahead of Moreau. He's going to be right in that group of six target tight ends. Yeah, I like what Jamie said. I'll just say that. All right, and the Ravens DST is in play this week. So, yeah, start them.
Starting point is 00:49:40 Giants and Dolphins, the spotlight game. Dolphins have allowed 17 or fewer points in four straight games, all wins. The Giants have allowed 20 or fewer points in four of their last five games and 30 points at Tampa Bay. They may be without one of their best defensive players, Adory Jackson, but these two defenses are playing very well, and it's something to keep in mind, probably a low-scoring game. Stat of the game, the Dolphins.
Starting point is 00:50:05 Yeah, Jamie alluded to this. The Dolphins in their last five games, 3.64 yards per carry to running backs, no touchdowns. The competition was not great until McCaffrey, who left with an injury, but it was Buffalo, Houston, Baltimore, the Jets, and Carolina. So a few guys are better than the second one.
Starting point is 00:50:22 Yeah, five teams are better than the Giants rushing game. That is a bad, bad list of running backs. It is going to continue. I mean, how much confidence do you have? Heath, you seem to have more confidence in Barkley, but you like him better with Glennon. I don't know. Right.
Starting point is 00:50:38 I like him better with Glennon. I do think, like, Michael Carter played a third of that game against the dolphins and had nine carries for 63 yards. So he was on a pretty good run before that happened. I don't remember how much McCaffrey played before he got hurt. He had 10 carries, but yeah, I,
Starting point is 00:51:00 I'm probably just starting to say Kwan Barkley, even if Daniel Jones is starting. But he's a number two running back. And all those guys that I said I would start over Najee Harris, I'd start over Saquon as well. So I have Barkley in one league where I also have Sonny Michel. And we get to the weekend and Daryl Henderson's out. That's an easy call for me.
Starting point is 00:51:24 Right. So I think, like, you know, we keep referencing the quarterback list. and Daryl Henderson's out, that's an easy call for me. So I think we keep referencing the quarterback list. The running back list is also a little tricky because you have Najee Harris in a tough spot. You have Saquon Barkley in a tough spot. You're down, obviously, McCaffrey, and you're down. Well, McCaffrey wouldn't play. You're down Dalvin Cook. I guess it doesn't matter.
Starting point is 00:51:40 Yeah, you get Madison. Yeah, down Nick Chubb. It's a weird week. And you have guys like Jamal Williams. And if there is a solo starter in Philadelphia, those guys, I think, are... And if Sonny Michel starts over Henderson, those guys are in probably better spots than Barkley right now.
Starting point is 00:51:59 And James Conner would be an easy one over Barkley, right? James Conner's an easy one. Elijah Mitchell's an easy one for me. What if Miles Sanders plays? I would probably still put Barkley ahead, certainly in PPR, because you just don't know how the splits will go in Philadelphia. Right. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:17 All right, how about a Giants wide receiver? Any interest here? Zero. Not really, no. Galladay for me is in that mike williams t higgins range okay and evan ingram is a sit i haven't even looked at the rankings but i know evan ingram is a sit uh to uh let's talk about to uh 61 percent rostered so he is you know it's a he's perfect for this matchup because the giants don't give up big pass plays and he doesn't throw downfield he has the second lowest intended air
Starting point is 00:52:52 yards per pass attempt among qualified quarterbacks only jared goff throws the ball shorter than to a tongue about low on average did you see the nfl on cbs tweet about Tua and Kyler Murray through their first career 16 starts? No. Tua has a better touchdown-interception ratio, a better completion percentage, a better passer rating, and a better win-loss record. He's been great. Well, he's been great in a Mac Jones-ian way.
Starting point is 00:53:19 He's been great from a playing standpoint. He hasn't been great from a fantasy standpoint. Yeah, I know, but people dog on Mac Jones because he never throws the ball downfield, really. But Tua's even worse than that, so it's hard. There it is. Good job, Schrager. Yeah, Schraggy B. All right, there's the graphic.
Starting point is 00:53:36 Yeah, that means nothing to me, by the way. He's been a better passer than Kyler Murray was as a rookie. But Kyler's a much better runner and a better fantasy quarterback. This is Kyler's rookie season, and this is Tua's rookie and sophomore season. It's a little deceiving. It's the first 16 games. Sure, but he's not a rookie.
Starting point is 00:53:55 He's had two training camps. Should have azer-statted a little bit and removed some of those games. I guess he's had one training camp because of COVID. No, he had two training camps. He had one preseason. Anyway, Tua... What would you take right now? Two or Daniel Jones?
Starting point is 00:54:07 I'd take Jacoby Brissett over Daniel Jones. That's not true. But I'd take two for sure. Anyway, yeah. Do we like him this week, Heath? He is right between Taysom Hill and Taylor Heineke for me. The three Ts are the streamers this week. I would start Taysom over him, but I would Hill and Taylor Heineke for me. The three T's are the streamers this week. I would start Taysom over him,
Starting point is 00:54:27 but I would start two over Heineke and I would start two over Burrow. Jamie, final thought on Tua? I agree with everything he said. I probably just stick with Burrow though, but in terms of Taysom, Tua and Taylor, I agree.
Starting point is 00:54:42 Do you more or less feel the same way about Miles Gaskin as you do about Barkley? I know Jamie likes Gaskin better and Heath likes Barkley better, but are they in the same range? You're starting them, probably. Yeah, they're in the same range. I think you just got to start to buy into what Gaskin's been doing in terms of his work, finding the end zone twice last week. I think he scored down three of his last four.
Starting point is 00:55:02 The opportunity is there against this Gi's defense with the probably the amount of times the ball will be in the dolphins hands you know you have to worry a little bit about this comment from brian flores about philip lindsey to whatever extent it goes but i can't imagine that miles gaskin in terms of his role in the passing game will change and then is he going to lose the goal line opportunities it's not like philip lindsey's a big back that's going to come and take him off the field you know They're very similar in stature. So I think Myles Gaskin's role is kind of locked in as at least 80% of where it's been.
Starting point is 00:55:33 If Philip Lindsay takes 20% of what Gaskin's been doing, that's maybe something that's fair. But I'm not worried about Philip Lindsay ruining Myles Gaskin right now. And Jalen Waddell, layup, must start? Superstar. What if Parker plays? right now and jaylen waddle lay up must start superstar what if parker plays and i was thinking about this the other day would jaylen waddle be this good if he had the other two guys on the field i would say no i would agree yeah and it's and i feel really dumb about that because on the sunday night show i was like, don't even ask about Jalen Wiley anymore. He's a must start, but you do have to take in the Parker. I mean, I don't know when the hell Fuller is going to be back. I don't know when Parker is going to be
Starting point is 00:56:13 back. I think he's still, he's still a must start guy, but I just don't know if he'd be getting this many targets and having this much success. If he's getting the competition from those other guys, I think it would actually help Mike Gusecki if Devante parker's back because then he could play more of a tight end role as opposed to playing a wide receiver role and you know actually i want to look this up right now but i think waddle has been on the outside a lot more of the last three games and um that's probably better for him because gives him a little bit more of a chance for big plays. But if Parker and Fuller come back, you know. Yeah, his slot percentage has dropped. Two weeks
Starting point is 00:56:50 ago, he only played 13 snaps there. Yeah, I would say he's been more outside than previously. Alright, anyway, if Parker plays, is he a... If Devontae Parker plays, would you start Parker or Mike Williams? Still Mike Williams, but, I mean but the fact that we have to say that
Starting point is 00:57:08 tells you where Mike Williams is. Not that it's not being disrespectful to Parker, but a guy just stepping onto the field for the first time in months, over months. That just shows you how bad Mike Williams has been. All right, would you go Parker or Barkley? Barkley. Barkley.
Starting point is 00:57:24 Would you go Waddle or Barkley? Waddle. Waddle. I hope he scores. I enjoyed the Waddle end zone celebration. Some of the comments I saw, I think Tua called it a little bird. And Christian Wilkins, I think, said,
Starting point is 00:57:41 I mean, with a name like Waddle, you get to go Waddle, Waddle, Waddle. So he gets the... Yeah. It was very good. Miami's DST is top seven. Gasicki, though. He's so frustrating. It's like, gosh, you want to look at him?
Starting point is 00:57:55 They're playing the wide receivers. Thanks. That's not good because the Giants are decent against wide receivers. Not as good against tight ends. What do you think about Kosicki Heath? I don't really, that's, that's how I feel about him.
Starting point is 00:58:13 Like that's, it's driving me crazy. This group of tight ends, I'm still starting him over Foster Moreau. I'm still starting him over Noah Fant. I would start him, but I'm still starting Zach Ertz and Kyle
Starting point is 00:58:29 Pitts over Mike Gusecki. Again, I think you could take tight ends 7 through 15 in our rankings and just jumble them up into one of those things and pull out the little lottery balls and rank them that way if you want to. Denver's at kansas city
Starting point is 00:58:45 so stat of the game denver has lost five games this season in those five games neither melvin gordon nor giovante williams has had more than 11 carries when they win they get a ton of work when they lose they do not and well are they going to make it up in the passing game well between the two of them, they have one game with more than three catches. That was Javante Williams had a six-catch game at Cleveland. So they got to stay in this game against Kansas City. And I think that's the thing with both the running backs
Starting point is 00:59:17 and Noah Fant in this game. The matchup is pretty fantastic for pass-catching running backs, for pass-catching tight ends, for running backs in general. But, man, it's hard to imagine those guys all having a good game too. So the matchup is toughest for the wide receivers, right? Right. So we're just sitting them? I'd like to.
Starting point is 00:59:40 Yeah. Yeah, I think Judy's the best one, and he's a number three receiver, better in PPR. You just can't look at what Sutton, I think Judy's the best one, and he's a number three receiver, better in PPR. You just can't look at what Sutton has done with Judy on the field. It's just been a disaster for him. And so, yeah, and Patrick is just too much of a wild card at this point. So you know what they're going to try and do. I mean, they're going to try and run.
Starting point is 01:00:04 Would you start Judy or Van Jefferson? Jefferson. Van. And Beckham. Judy or Cooper? Cooper. Cooper. Judy or Kendrick Bourne or Jacoby Myers?
Starting point is 01:00:21 I would start Bourne in non-PPR over Judy, and I would start Myers over Judy in PPR. Okay. And I hate saying it. Heath, where's Fant, and you're with Kosicki? He's behind all of them, even though I hate it, because it's the Chiefs, and he'll probably score a touchdown. But the way they're using him right now,
Starting point is 01:00:43 it's almost like he's the pass-catching running back, and they just dump it off to him in the line of scrimmage and he's not making a lot of people miss so i i've got him uh 14th or 15th depending on the format i'd start logan thomas over him i'd start gaseki over him do you do you um in dynasty leagues try and buy broncos at this point with the hope of aaron rogers going there i i think you should buy Broncos in the passing game. I don't know if you can buy Javante Williams because his perceived value is so much higher than his actual production. But yes, I would buy Fant. I would buy Judy. I think I'd even buy Sutton. For the record, Heath, this is Javante Williams week,
Starting point is 01:01:24 right? I'm pretty sure Javante Williams week, right? I'm pretty sure Javante Williams week was last week. Okay. No, but how do you compare Javante, Melvin Gordon, and Clyde Eberzila? Let's talk about the running backs in this game. Is Clyde clearly ahead of them? I feel the most comfortable with him at this point, yes. But it's no slam dunk. Yeah, I've got Clyde and Daryl still pretty close,
Starting point is 01:01:48 but I would go Melvin, Clyde, Javante. It's a really bad run defense. It's a very good defense, but they have had so many struggles against the run. But they've been better lately, that's the problem. Yeah, they have. They were not better against the Eagles, but nobody has been really. They have been better lately. That's the problem. Yeah, they have. They were going back inside as a big thing. They were not better against the Eagles,
Starting point is 01:02:08 but nobody has been really. They have been better lately. Are you talking about Denver? I'm sorry. Yes, I'm talking about Denver. Yes, Denver's run defense has been better lately, yes. But still overall pretty bad. Yes.
Starting point is 01:02:22 And you just, you know, it's... I think what will end up happening is, you know, you asked about, like, the blowout, right? I think you asked about that. Well, it's, I think what will end up happening is, you know, you asked about like the blowout, right? I think. Well, is it going to be competitive? Yeah. Competitive game. Yes. So I think it'll be competitive.
Starting point is 01:02:32 Denver's defense has played really well, but it's almost like, you know, when the wave is coming and you're just expecting at some point, it's going to overwhelm them. I think, you know, the chiefs at some point we'll start to pull ahead. And how much will they lean on either Clyde or Darrell Williams in that capacity? Darrell Williams has been largely disappointing when Clyde's been healthy. Oh, yeah. Williams, you need the goal line touchdown.
Starting point is 01:02:53 He gets almost no work. He only had one. He had two, I think. I think he had ones in week two and four. Yeah. But, yeah, still, I mean, it's a prayer. And then last week, or last game, two weeks ago, it was Clyde who was in that situation and he scored.
Starting point is 01:03:10 Yeah, it cost him some money too. Clyde or Barkley? Barkley. Barkley, but it's close. Yeah, you're right. Darryl had two touchdowns. One of them, though, was against Baltimore where he had three carries for minus two yards.
Starting point is 01:03:25 So Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelsey, Patrick Mahomes, touchdowns. One of them, though, was against Baltimore. We had three carries for minus two yards. So, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelsey, Patrick Mahomes, must starts, and that's pretty much it for this game. We should probably do a little bit more. You like Melvin Gordon better than Javante, right? I do. Slightly. I would love,
Starting point is 01:03:39 I don't want to see guys get hurt, but he's on the injury report right now. Melvin Gordon didn't practice on Wednesday again. He got a little bit dinged up in the game last week. You know, I think a lot of people, when we saw Melvin Gordon go down, I think might've been the first carry or it was definitely first quarter. First carry.
Starting point is 01:03:53 Oh no. But Oh, well, okay. Let's, let's go to Fonte Williams. Um, it'd be nice to see one of these guys just have an opportunity to be the
Starting point is 01:04:00 featured guy. Right? Yeah. Either one. I mean, they run the ball a lot and effectively. So yeah, I'm not going to root for an injury. I'm going to just...
Starting point is 01:04:09 I'm not shaming. Yeah, nobody's rooting for an injury, but it happens. It does happen. Gordon's been on the injury report so much this year and he never misses the game. All right, so let's go to... That's it for this game.
Starting point is 01:04:20 Chiefs DST is top 12. They've been very good lately and they're only 38% rostered. So if you need a DST, you can look at them. Two more games. Patriots at Bills. It's hard to come up with a stat of the game. I mean, these are arguably the two best defenses in football. You're not going to have Tredavious White, though,
Starting point is 01:04:37 so we'll see what kind of impact that has. And I have a feeling it's basically just start Allen, start Diggs. And then Dawson Knox. I think that's maybe the toughest one. So my stat of the game was just that the Patriots allowed the second fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Heath, you toss it and turn it, not figuring out how to rank Dawson Knox? You know, I just decided as we were having this discussion, I've got these 17 tight ends in a group that I don't know how to rank. I'm going to move the one facing the Patriots to the back of the line. So Dawson Knox now behind Foster Moreau behind Logan Thomas,
Starting point is 01:05:14 behind Noah Fant behind Gerald Everett tight end 15. I'm sitting Dawson Knox with conviction. It's not the second best Adam. It's the best. They're the best at defending tenants. Really? Yes. Are they tied for first?
Starting point is 01:05:29 I don't know. On our site, they're first. Okay. Because sometimes when they're tied and you go to like Dawson Knox's player page, for example, it would, no, I have the Cardinals as number one.
Starting point is 01:05:42 Oh, that's so weird though. Are we looking at, is that because our stance, though. Are we looking at... Is that because our stance... When you just look at the points allowed on our site, it's non-PPR. Are you in a PPR league looking at that? It's in a PPR league.
Starting point is 01:05:53 They are first. You know what's weird? They are first in non-PPR. Oh, no, no, no. Okay, they're second in non-PPR. The Cardinals are first. That's what it is. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:06:03 All right. They give up 3.5 fantasy points per game in non-PPR. The Cardinals are first. That's what it is. They give up 3.5 fantasy points per game in non-PPR to tight ends. Yeah, 6.5 in PPR. They've given three touchdowns to the position. Is there anything tricky in this game here? You want to talk about Bourne and Myers?
Starting point is 01:06:18 Harris and Stevenson. Let's talk about the Patriots, Jamie. Break it down. I asked you this question yesterday, both of you, and it's just an interesting stat, that the Bills have allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season and seven of them have come to two guys. Derrick Henry scored three times.
Starting point is 01:06:37 Jonathan Taylor scored four times. And Michael Carter found the end zone against them as the other running back to score. So Harris has scored once in the two games since coming back from his concussion when Stevenson three games ago against Cleveland had the 20 carries for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Both have been largely disappointing in the passing game. I think they've combined for three catches over the last two weeks. So you don't have that factor to sort of fall back on.
Starting point is 01:07:03 And I just wonder if, you know, knowing how big this game is, how much does Bill Belichick trust his rookie? So does Stevenson get more work, less work? You know, he looked more explosive than Harris last week. But does that continue? So I lean slightly toward Harris in this game. I would try to avoid Stevenson, who again has been disappointing the last two weeks with Harris on the field. But which run defense for Buffalo shows up? Is the one that was great all season long, or is the one that when you run at them
Starting point is 01:07:32 and we know that's what probably the Patriots are going to do, they've struggled with two of the best running backs in football, and that's really it. But those are the two teams that ran right after. One of those two games, they did not have Star Latulele. He is back back he is off the covet list missed the last three games he's probably their best run stuffer and that was the
Starting point is 01:07:51 jonathan taylor game jonathan taylor went and michael carter too actually so two of the three running backs who scored did it without star of the two lillay he's coming back for the buffalo bills i would really like it because you know this is the Monday night game and this is a very important game for fantasy managers trying to get into the playoffs or in some leagues already beginning certain levels of the playoffs. I feel much better if my opponent
Starting point is 01:08:15 has players in this game that he's counting on than if I have players in this game that I'm counting on. Absolutely. What about Diggs? You think he's going to have a good game? I don't think it You're starting him, I know. You can't sit him. I don't You think he's going to have a good game? I don't think... You're starting him, I know. You can't sit him. I don't really think he's going to have a good game. No, but he might get in the
Starting point is 01:08:31 end zone. He might have five for 70, but no, I don't really think anyone's going to have a good game. Josh Allen? I don't think so. He did score 40 fantasy points against the Patriots last week in week 16. I'm not sure if you should count that game in the Josh Allen versus Bill Belichick history
Starting point is 01:08:52 just because it wasn't exactly a typical Bill Belichick defense by week 16 of last year. But you're starting Josh Allen, you're starting Stephon Diggs, but I hope you don't have to win this game if they're one of your best players. The last time we saw him in a big game like this, primetime, right, was against Chiefs. Yeah, he was terrific. He was terrific.
Starting point is 01:09:15 I mean, look, the Patriots defense, I don't want to take anything away from them. You got to look at the opponents that they've played. It hasn't exactly been murderer's row in terms of offenses that they've shut down. No, but Brady scored 10 10 points herbert scored 16 prescott had a great game brady was in the rain and you know yeah that there we i've already gotten one tweet about it and i don't worry about whether this far in advance but there is some talk that they may have um like 25 30 mile an hour winds and a snowstorm during monday football. Oh, please. I love it.
Starting point is 01:09:45 It would be fantastic. I love it. I can't wait for this game. It's so awesome. Who's the better team? I suspect Buffalo is, but they have actually played a really easy schedule this year. That's another thing.
Starting point is 01:09:58 Yeah. They haven't played anybody either. Yeah. And I, man, I, I kind of think the bad weather might, like it should favor the team with the veteran quarterback, but I kind of think it might favor the Patriots. I could see Belichick convincing his team that man, bad weather just works to our advantage. Well, their best player is probably Nick Folk.
Starting point is 01:10:17 So my work against them. All right. Uh, no interest in the Bills running backs? No, but I would imagine the way that the Patriots approach this is play back, put a lot of defensive backs on the field, and say we'll lose if Matt Breida and
Starting point is 01:10:35 Devin Singletary beat us. I think Singletary is a good flex. I wonder if Breida is the better play, though. Singletary is going to get more touches, I would think, but Breida just looks so much better. Trying Like, Singletary's going to get more touches, I would think. But Breida just looks so much better. You trying to get away from the DSTs in this game? That's the funny thing, because, like,
Starting point is 01:10:56 this is Mac Jones' biggest spot, right? Monday Night Football. You know, I mean, he had the moment already against Brady. But now it's the next moment, you next moment to establish yourself back as the team in the division and on the road. Bad weather. Will he falter? How much different
Starting point is 01:11:14 is the Bills' pass defense without Travius White? Against the team, though, it doesn't matter. It's not like they're going to be downfield throws, especially if the weather's bad. They'll still dink and dunk their way down the field. All right. So would you start the Dolphins DSTs over them? Easy, yeah.
Starting point is 01:11:33 Vikings? That's the one I struggle with is Minnesota. Because that's the other thing, in terms of Patriots defense, if this team is as good as it's played, which, again, I don't want to take anything away from them, we've seen Josh Allen now struggle. He faced an improved Jacksonville
Starting point is 01:11:47 defense. Not bad was he in that game. Right. And he struggled against Colts. Yes, he did. Speaking of the Colts, they are at Houston. So, let's just knock out Houston real quick. Only player... We almost might get to Sunday
Starting point is 01:12:03 when that game kicks off. I think I'm enjoying the heck out of this show. Only player that's interesting here on Houston is Cooks, right? Yes. Cooks or Pittman? Cooks.
Starting point is 01:12:19 I think I have Pittman higher, but neither of them in my top 24. Is Jonathan Taylor the only great start in this game? Yes. Colts DST is pretty good. Yeah. So, Wentz, I mean, I know you guys,
Starting point is 01:12:35 who was it last week that you were excited about against Houston? No, two weeks ago maybe? Tannehill? Tua. Tua? No, Tua played the Jets. It was Tannehill a couple weeks ago, and he was horrible, and they lost that game. That was last week.
Starting point is 01:12:48 Wince is like the number four streamer this week, so we're not going to use him. Okay, because he just might do what he did last time and throw 20 times and score 21 points or something. I mean, all you're hearing out of Indianapolis is how much they didn't run the ball against the Bucs. Right. Okay, they're going to run the ball this week.
Starting point is 01:13:07 So, yeah, Michael. Get Jonathan Taylor the MVP game. Would you? Dave is very high on Michael Pittman. I have to ask him about that tomorrow. Would you start Pittman or Barkley? Barkley. Barkley.
Starting point is 01:13:21 I mean, you know, the thing about Pittman's matchup is great. You know, the Texans secondary is terrible. So it's just opportunities. And the T.Y. Hilton thing. Right. I know it's a joke, kind of, but also. Yeah, he kills them every time. So I'll do a few more Michael Pittman.
Starting point is 01:13:44 Michael Pittman or Bills, Patriots, Broncos, running back? Pittman and PPR over all those guys. Non-PPR, I'll take Harris. Sure. Jack Doyle is a desperation guy. You could see having a good game. Yeah, he's been good until two of his last three.
Starting point is 01:14:10 On the injury report, though, so just keep that in mind. And that's it for this game. No David Johnson, Rex Burkhead? I mean, you've got to be so desperate for those guys. I feel like you have to be... I don't feel this way,
Starting point is 01:14:23 but based on the way he's produced, you'd have to be desperate for Brandon Cooks. He's been terrible, but he's always capable of having a big game. Garbage time, baby. Let's go. The Colts give up the fifth most fantasy points to wide receivers. Just... Yes?
Starting point is 01:14:41 I want to make sure of something real quick, because sometimes I like to keep an eye on Twitter while we're on the show, and I make sure we don't miss any breaking news. And I want to make sure that that's not something... Is that the... Nope, we're good. Okay, no, I think you're right.
Starting point is 01:14:58 RJ White dropped Zane Gonzalez and added Evan McPherson. I did see that come across my phone as well. So, there you go. Kicker news for you. We are out of here. Enjoy the game tonight. We'll talk to you tomorrow with the NFC home games. See ya. It's not just jackets and boots. So when you do, always make sure you get cash back from Rakuten. And it's not just clothing and shoes.
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