Fantasy Football Today - Start or Sit (AFC); Big Injury Updates (09/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: September 7, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts How are we feeling about Dameon Pierce in a tough matchup? Do we love Raheem Mostert at the Chargers? Do we want to wait and see with most of the rookies including Anthony Richardson? We've got our first Start or Sit episode of the season as we talk about our rankings philosophies (1:10), players we love (5:30) and players to avoid for Week 1 (8:40) ... News and notes (13:10) on Travis Kelce, Cooper Kupp and many more. Then we've got One Question for Each Game (21:05)! Can you trust any Steelers? Is D'Andre Swift worth a start this week? ... Start or Sit for Bills-Jets (26:40), 49ers-Steelers (37:40), Bengals-Browns (43:30), Jaguars-Colts (47:40), Texans-Ravens (54:50), Raiders-Broncos (1:00:00), Eagles-Patriots (1:04:45) and Dolphins-Chargers (1:07:50) ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We've got some start sit decisions to make as we await word on Travis Kelsey. Join us tonight for a live stream at 7 30 p.m. Eastern. Of course, we'll know by then if Kelsey is playing and we'll tell you what to do with Kadarius, Tony and Sky Moore, etc. That's at youtube.com

slash fantasy football today. Week one start or sit for the AFC home games. Tomorrow we'll tackle the NFC home games and these shows are really in depth if you're new to start or sit for the AFC home games. Tomorrow we'll tackle the NFC home games. And these shows are really in-depth if you're new to start or sit from us. We go pretty in-depth and we tell you everything that you need to know to make the most informed roster decisions. It's Adam, Heath, and Jamie here on a Thursday morning.

Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com and leave us a five-star review on Apple Podcasts and ask us a question because we have a mailbag every week. All right, guys. Week one is kind of interesting. You can go off some data from last year, but the teams have changed, obviously.

You can try to find the best matchups, but you don't know what's going to carry over from week to week. So, Heath, what is your week one philosophy and maybe just your rankings philosophies in general? Yeah, you know, I maybe a Jerry Judy or a Terry McLaurin or veterans that I'd pushed down because of concerns about their injuries, like Derrick Henry, James Connor, those guys, I don't have as much concern about an injury for one week. So I'm just going to rank Derrick Henry where I

project him. I don't make a lot of big changes week one based on matchup. I kind of, I probably have the least amount of a matchup factor in my rankings during the season, but especially going into week one, basing on what it was last year, some of those will be right, some of those will be wrong. I don't factor that in as much this week. How about you, Jamie?

Same question, some rankings philosophies. Similar to what Heath said, I would say I take probably matchups a little bit more into account. The thing about week one in general is you know how much are you getting away from the guys that you drafted as starters and i think that's kind of what heath is alluding to a little bit is like you know you drafted let's say i'm trying to think somebody i don't like bruce hall's a bad example um you drafted anthony richardard to be a starter right perfect and so you know do you do you want to start him in week one or did you kind of want to see how he looks in week one you know

aaron rogers based on adp has been drafted as a starter um you know how much do you want to start a player like that so you know those kind of things come into a question you know in terms of do i want to like i don't like the Steelers receivers this week. Another good example. Like, do you want to get away from this? Do you want to start Cortland Sutton over Deontay Johnson and George Pickens? And you can make a strong argument that you should. Right. I think a couple of names that'll come up today are Damian Pierce against the Ravens, Najee Harris against the Niners. And by the end of the draft season,

we were drafting Pierce considerably higher than Harris. But at one point, Najee's ADP was considerably higher than Pierce's, about a round higher. I mean, he was almost a round two pick in a lot of drafts. That position, though, to your question, is a little bit tougher to get away from. Running back? It's easier to find receivers, especially when we're talking about, in, to your question, is a little bit tougher to get away from. Running back? Well, it's easier to find receivers, especially when we're talking about, in a lot of cases, three receiver leagues to start a third guy over the guy you might have been looking as

your third guy. Yeah, but if you only have to start two running backs, I mean, you could be saying, should I start Rashad White over Damian Pierce and stuff like, you know, Raheem Mostert? Mostert is a great example of something. Like, I don't know how many people have the ability to, or how many people drafted three running backs with both Pierce and White. There are obviously a ton of examples, I'm sure. But, you know, like that's a little bit tougher to make that decision.

If you're lucky enough to make that decision. Two more names, too. Like Jamal Williams is going to have a much bigger role, a terrible matchup, but a much bigger role than we expect most of the season for him. And then Samaj P. Ryan, with it being week one back for Javante Williams and a great matchup against the Raiders.

I think those are a couple other guys that you could move ahead that I have moved ahead of some of those low-end number twos that I don't want to start. Yeah. Javante Williams also apparently is going to have a big role. Which Broncos running back do you guys have ranked higher? Javante, you know, kind of going back to what he said in terms of injury concerns,

as long as he's healthy and the matchup is good, I think you start him. I would guess, just knowing how most players work, this is the game he might have circled. Not that the Raiders had anything to do with it, but the Raiders game was the one he got hurt in week four. So to come back against the opponent that actually was the game where he left, you know, he's playing the right, it was in Las Vegas, a little bit different, but you know, that, that I'm sure was a goal of his, you know, let me get back against the team that I couldn't finish against.

Also, I think it's pretty crazy that Jamie, like, remember the Bo knows campaign, but when we were kids, you know, Bo Knows this, Bo Knows that. I think J.K. Dobbins is Jamie Knows Dobbins. That was Jamie's guy every day. And you didn't make him the start of the week against the Houston Texans. Come on. I certainly could have, but he started in like 90% of leagues. What am I telling people?

I got you. I could have just said, Hey, this is my guy and I'm going to stick with my guy and just give him one week of, of more publicity. But I mean like anybody who listens to our shows knows anybody who's ready for mock draft certainly knows. Uh, I took him again in the league that we had yesterday. Um, if, if he's good, I'm going to be very, very happy camera this season from, from just a, a playing out league standpoint, but if he's bad, I'm going to be very, very happy camera this season from, from just a, a playing out league standpoint. But if he's bad, I'm going to hear about it. I hope I'm not playing Jamie in week one. All right.

So, so that was my segue into start of the week and players. We love for fantasy week one to a tongue of ILOA is only started as of right now. Lineups haven't been set, but some people may have set them. I've said all mine, 55% started right now for Tua at the Chargers, where he was actually really bad last year. Jamie, he's your start of the week. Yeah. You know, again, we try to look for players for anybody that's new to, you know, what we do from a content standpoint. You know, we can tell you the obvious guys to start and sit,

but we try to keep it in line with the guys in the gray area. And Tua, you mentioned it, you know, 50, it was 54% when I wrote the story, he was the 13th quarterback off the board. And, you know, that kind of tells you that he wasn't being viewed as a starter. He was drafted behind two, two guys that I think we drafted Tua over. We were recommending it, which were Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins. I like Kirk Cousins a lot this week as well. But in terms of, in terms of Tua, I'm, I'm, I'm going to be honest. I'm a little nervous just with Toronto Armstead not being a hundred percent. Uh, but I think, you know, and, and I know he looks at this as part of his process. Also, you look at point totals and this is the second highest point total.

And by the time we get to tonight, it might be the highest point total. If Kelsey does not play that the chiefs lions game may drop below the 51 points that's projected between the chargers and the dolphins. Um, I think that too, is going to come out and have a big game. You know, Jalen Waddell's practicing in full. That's a big thing. Devon Achain's practicing in full, you know, so a little bit of a gadget player that may help the passing game. They should have the chance to run on the Chargers because the Chargers' run defense last year was horrible.

But really, I'm expecting a shootout. I think these two quarterbacks are going to light up the sky, and we're going to get a lot of production from the top receivers, and I think it's going to be fun for Tua. So he's got top 10 upside. Before, Joe Burrow practiced in full. Not that I was concerned about it, but I did have him ranked ahead of Burrow. I switched that last night, so Burrow's one spot ahead, but he's number nine quarterback for me.

Okay. Heath, who do you love this week? Just stick with the same theme from the whole preseason. I love miles Sanders this week. Top, uh, top 12 running back for me. I think especially early in the season, you're going to see a very big workload for miles Sanders as they try to figure out what their past game is going to look like. DJ charks, not available to practice.

Adam Thielen's got it popped up with an ankle injury. Now I wouldn't be surprised if we see 20 plus touches. And while this Falcons defense is going to be improved from last year, I don't think they're actually going to be good. I don't expect surprised if we see 20-plus touches. While this Falcons defense is going to be improved from last year, I don't think they're actually going to be good. I don't expect this to be a blowout. It should be a close game. I really like Sanders a lot this week. Tua at the Chargers, Sanders at the Falcons.

How about players to avoid this week? Heath, you can start. Jamie mentioned one of them earlier. I'm maybe a little higher on Deontay than he is, but I'm staying as far away from George Pickens as I we did hear a lot in the offseason about him running an expanded route tree, most of what we saw in the preseason was him running the same routes that he ran last year, and those just don't lead to consistent fantasy production. Since we've spoken about them already, and this game is on our schedule,

on our slates today, San Francisco at Pittsburgh, does it matter to you that the 49ers actually allowed the sixth most fantasy points to wide receivers last year? No. Okay, because it is kind of weird. I mean, they were really, really hard to run against. Their run defense is phenomenal, and now they have Javon Hargrave, too.

But they did not do well against receivers. They don't have Mosley, who played only five or six games. He's on the Lions. He's not playing tonight. They don't have Jimmy Ward anymore. He's on the Texans. They have Travarius Ward at one corner spot. I don't know. Just something to keep in mind. I guess it doesn't matter to you guys.

I agree with Heath that I want to see it first, but I was a little on the fence in terms of do we want to trust the Steelers passing game, but then the big move that happened late last night or late last evening, Nick Bosa coming back, that's like, okay, now they're as close to full strength as you can ask for, and that defensive front is going to overcompensate for some of the deficiencies maybe in the secondary, just getting the quarterback half a second sooner. Yeah, it's a shame that the Steelers have to start with the 49ers. If you did like them in the preseason, you were optimistic, and they don't have a good game in week one,

you should probably be a little bit patient. I was going to say it's nice that they're starting with them. Let's see how real it is. Okay, but patient. Well, I was going to say it's nice that they're starting with, like, let's see how real it is. Okay, but you would agree, I think, that if they do struggle, it doesn't mean that it can't be real. Yes. Yeah, I'm not dropping any Steelers

because they have a bad game against the 49ers. Correct. Right, right. Okay, Jamie, who would you avoid this week? It's not that I don't think he can play well, but I would try to avoid DeAndre Swift just because I think the setup is just a little bit too ambiguous to find who is going to be the guy you can trust in that backfield. It could be Rashad Penny. It could be Kenneth Gainwell. We just don't know. And obviously the Patriots run defense is still among the best in the NFL. They led the NFL last season in fewest touchdowns allowed. So it's still going to be a lot of Jalen Hurts, which we certainly expected.

But I would, you know, you talk about, you hear me say this a lot, you know, discovery games. This is a game where I would love to see Swift come out and get 15 plus touches and say, okay, he's the guy. We don't have to get a big stat line, but he's the guy. You know, as opposed to maybe it's too serious for him, too serious for Gainwell, too serious for Penny. And then it's like, Oh bleep, we have no one that we can rely on. And we just have to sort of wait for a potential injury or something to happen. But, uh, yeah, I, I, this really isn't as much as the matchup is tough. It's not really so much about the matchup. It's just not knowing who's going to be there to help you if you have to start one of them.

I'm forced to start DeAndre Swift because I'm in a league where it's a lot of keepers and I have a lot of young players, and I don't have Cooper Cup. Swift was my top reserve, so we'll see. All right, players to avoid, George Pickens and DeAndre Swift. We have a mailbag episode that's going to air on Saturday. We're going to record it on Friday. You can see it on YouTube on Friday,

but you'll hear it on Saturday. So those will be your emails, as I mentioned, fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. That's the letter I. And your Apple Podcast questions, thank God, no more keeper questions. So please send a five-star review.

At this point in the week, it does take some time for the Apple Podcast questions to show up. So at this point in the week, it does take some time for the Apple Podcast questions to show up. So at this point in the week, I don't think it makes sense to send a review and a question. I don't think I'll see them by Friday morning or early afternoon. So just keep that in mind.

You want to send them a little bit earlier in the week if you want it read on the show. And I do get to, I don't know, probably 75% of those. A lot of news and notes. Too many news and notes. Here we go. Too many news and notes for week one.

This is ridiculous. The Packers wide receivers are dropping like flies. Travis Kelsey is questionable. So let's lay out the scenario. Obviously, if he plays, unless, I don't know, we'll see if they say something about a pitch count or something, but I can't imagine we're not starting Kelsey if he plays. But Heath, MVS, Sky Moore,

Kadarius, Tony, any other thing you want to mention here with Kelsey if he's out? It's so frustrating. And I, like, I would kind of like to treat the chiefs wide receivers, like what Jamie said about Deandre Swift. I'd like to see which one of them is playing all the snaps. Like we had this whole thing of Sky Moore all preseason. He's on the field all the time and two wide receiver sets. Well, was that just because Kadarius Tony was out? And Kadarius Tony was taken off the injury report. Not even questionable, not even limited with anything.

Apparently a full go. So I'm treating both Tony and Sky Moore as boom bust flexes. I think MVS is more of a desperation boom bust flex. I don't actually want to start a different Chiefs tight end if Travis Kelsey's out. I would give a boost to both McKinnon and Clyde if Kelsey was out. And I think even if they say he's going to be on a pitch count,

what tight end are you picking up off the waiver wire that you're starting over Travis Kelsey on a pitch count? None for me. Right. Cooper Cup is out for week one, could end up on IR. Their first four games are Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis. Actually, some tough matchups potentially there, especially the first three, although you heard what I just said about San Francisco against wide receivers, but Seattle and Cincinnati, well, we'll see how it plays out. But anyway, is there any Rams receiver that if, you know, like if you're looking at Josh Reynolds or MVS or Rams receiver,

maybe it's Van Jefferson, who's your favorite this week? I would go with, if we're talking about all replacements, potentially, I would probably go, assuming everybody's out, which would be disaster. I would go Jaden Reed.

If the Packers guys are out completely, then Van Jefferson, then Josh Reynolds. Yeah, I would like, if I had Van Jefferson and Josh Reynolds. Yeah, I would, like, if I had Van Jefferson and Josh Reynolds, I would be starting Van Jefferson over Reynolds tonight. The rest of the stuff, like, Jefferson's just barely a number three wide receiver for me. All right, Nick Bosa, star pass rusher for the 49ers, five years, $170 million, $122.5 million guaranteed.

I asked, who would you pay more to, Daniel Jones or Nick Bosa on Twitter? And 87% said Nick Bosa. So I'd have to agree. Arizona is not revealing their starting quarterback, but Ian Rappaport said that it's expected to be Josh Dobbs. They're at Washington this weekend. Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs both have hamstring injuries. Watson missed three games last year with a hamstring injury.

So that's, man, and they're at Chicago. I'm terrified of Watson. I didn't draft very much, but I'm terrified. Yeah, sucks. Yeah, I drafted a lot, so I hope your fears are not justified, but they are. Devon A. Chained, he practiced in full, but Teron Armstead was not at practice. Left tackle for the Dolphins.

Mike Evans is off the injury report. Just while you're on the Dolphins, Savan Ahmed also practicing in full, so we'll see how that backfield looks as well. I'm projecting Ahmed slightly ahead. Jamie, what's the over-under on the numberphins, Savan Ahmed also practicing in full. So we'll see how that backfield looks as well. I'm projecting Ahmed slightly ahead. Jamie, what's the over-under on the number of practices for Toronto Armstead

on Wednesday this season? Probably none. And Mike McDaniel did say that he could practice without, he could play without practicing at all this week. But the fact that he got hurt August 17th and still not at practice

is a little concern. So Mike Evans off the injury report. Tampa Bay defensive tackle rookie Kalijah Cansey missed practice with a calf injury and kind of interested in their run defense because it took a big step back last year. This is always, every year, Tampa Bay one of the best run defenses.

Alexander Madison hopes it's not that good this year. He gets them in week one. Jerry Judy apparently could play this week. Has not been ruled out. We're not expecting him, I guess, right now against the Raiders. But Jerry Judy, we'll see if he practices today. He was limited, actually, yesterday, right? Judy, I believe, was working off to the side.

So I guess they have to officially list him as limited. Right. Houston wide receiver John Meche mis missed practice with a hamstring injury. George Kittle's back at practice. Marquise Brown was limited with a hamstring injury. Gosh, would you start Van Jefferson, Josh Reynolds over Marquise Brown? If your only choices are Josh Reynolds or Marquise Brown,

I would start Josh Reynolds because he's playing tonight. But if you have Van Jefferson, you just wait it out. Zach Ertz was limited. Javante Williams, like I said, Sean Payton said, Javante Williams will play a big role in week one. Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward was limited in practice. He's recovering from a concussion, so it was good that he was back out there.

Mark Andrews has a quad injury. Any concerns about Mark Andrews playing this week? Not yet. It's going to suck if Travis Kelsey about Mark Andrews playing this week? Not yet. It's going to suck if Travis Kelsey and Mark Andrews don't play anymore. Great or late? It's just late.

So, Terry McLaurin limited, Devante Parker limited, Traylon Burks practiced in full. That's cool. Houston right tackle Titus Howard is on IR. That's not cool. Adam Thielen was limited, and DJ Chark missed practice. So we're not

expecting Chark. Hopefully we'll get Thielen at Atlanta. Jackson Smith and Jigba is going to play this week. He had wrist surgery, and now he is back for week one against the Rams. Where are you guys ranking JSN, who we'll talk about more tomorrow? In the number four receiver range, but not a bad third receiver if you're stuck.

Yeah, I would start both Tony and Sky Moore over JSN tonight, but it was a little downgrade for me for Lockett and Metcalf because I do think he impacts their target share. New Orleans running back Kendri Miller mispractice, blah, blah, blah. Joe Burrow will start. Dallas might be without guard. Tyler Smith, Nate Atkins of the

Indianapolis Star thinks that rookie wide receiver Josh Downs could play a lot in week one for the Colts and Zach Moss was at practice. We weren't expecting him for week one. Don't know that he will play, but he's at practice. We'll take a break when we come back, one question for each game, and then we'll break them all down for you. The eight AFC home games. We did one of them yesterday. We have eight more that we'll get to after this. Did you know 66% of utility damage

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Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. the Chargers. And then we'll get into every relevant player for each game. So we start one question for each game. Bills at Jets. Start or sit Gabe Davis and or Dalton Kincaid? I would like to sit them. I'm sitting Kincaid. I'm starting Davis if I start three wide receivers.

He was so bad against them last year. My gosh. Yes, he was. More, more on that later, San Francisco and Pittsburgh. Would you start any Steelers in this game? I mean, I think it's hard to get away from Deontay Johnson and the three receiver PPR league. So he'd be in my starting lineup there. Deontay is a borderline number two for me. I'm starting Pat Fryer move. Um, and there's just not enough tight ends for me to sit him because of the 49ers and Najee was another guy

that I know I was really down on all offseason but I think looking at it from a week one perspective I don't have Jalen Warren projected for as many touches as I do over the full course of the season so I think Najee is right in that high end flex discussion Cincinnati and Cleveland do you have any faith in course of the season. So I think Najee's right in that high-end flex discussion.

Cincinnati and Cleveland, do you have any faith in Deshaun Watson this week? Yes. Cincinnati's an interesting team. I mean, I don't think they're going to have Joseph Osai. He's one of their better pass rushers. They seem to like their secondary, but it's really

young. Two new safeties, yeah. Yeah. So, you know. I think they might be bad. I just don't. I need to see Deshaun Watson look like Deshaun Watson. Jamie, would you start Watson or both of you? Would you start Watson or Daniel Jones?

Watson. Daniel Jones' history against the Cowboys is one of the most miserable things I've ever seen. I'm going to go with Daniel Jones? Watson. Daniel Jones' history against the Cowboys is one of the most miserable things I've ever seen. I'm going to go with Daniel Jones. Hey, hey, hey. Mr. Daniel Jones. Yeah. All right.

Jacksonville and Indianapolis. Start them all, sit them all? Yes. Unfortunately. I think that's accurate. It seems like, Uh, yes. Unfortunately. I think that's accurate. It seems like, looking at what I've been looking at,

pro football focus and sharp football, it seems like the Colts and the Rams have the worst secondaries in the NFL. I think both sites rated it that way. So just something to know. Quarterbacks against the Colts and the Rams could be very good this year. And the Raiders, too. The Raiders, the Cardinals,

these teams are very, very low in the... Yeah, they might have the same bottom four. The bottom four for PFF and sharp football is Arizona 29, Raiders 30, Colts 31, Rams 32. Those are rankings of secondaries. Houston, Baltimore, which running back do you like better? And would you start any wide receiver in this game? I would start the running back that I would draft first as well,

which would be J.K. Dobbins over Damian Pierce. And I would prefer not to start any receivers in this game. Yeah, Dobbins by a pretty good margin over Pierce this week. Don't want to start any wide receivers. All right, cool. Raiders, Broncos, do you trust Javante Williams? I would start him. I don't know if I would use the word trust, but I would start him. Over Damian Pierce. I'd start him I don't know if I would use the word trust but I would start him over

if that's a question me too I'd start him over Damian Pierce oh Jamie Javante or Pierce I would still start Pierce and Heath I don't think you answered earlier but you mentioned P Ryan who do you like better Javante or P Ryan I have them back to back right now

I think I have P Ryan one spot higher but I mean I'll probably move Javante one spot higher. They're right in the same range. Eagles, Patriots, who's a better flex, Swift or Juju? Swift. Let's not forget, this is the first time the Eagles are seeing Juju after the whole social media storm following the Super Bowl. Okay. Oh, I forgot about that. That's awesome.

Yes. I think I actually have Juju higher in PPR for sure. Okay. Miami and the Chargers. Who's a better flex, Raheem Mostert or Mike Williams? And you probably want to start them both, but who's a better flex, Mostert or Williams? Mostert is probably

safer, but I think Mike Williams is going to have a huge game, so I would start Mike Williams. I'm going with Mike Williams. I don't know that there's a lot of safety. I wouldn't be that surprised if the Chargers jumped out to an early lead and Tua just threw it 45 times. Let's hope. Maybe we'll sign up for that.

Yeah, the Chargers have had a really terrible run defense three years in a row. Last year, one of the worst in football. But hopefully the game script's okay for Mostert. But, Heath, this is the last game that we're going to talk about. I know these shows go long. So do you want to talk about Gerald Everett right now? What was last year a great matchup? Dolphins really stunk against tight ends.

Gerald Everett. Yeah, and he got off to a good start to the year last year. Double-digit fantasy points in three of his first four games. I expect that he will have a 5-6 target role in the Kellen Moore offense, because that's existed for most of Kellen Moore's history as a play caller. And this is a very good matchup. So he's one of my favorite streamers. Top 15 tight end for sure.

I would start him over all of the rookies, for example. Oh, that was my next question. All right, well, speaking of which, let's go to our games. Buffalo is at the Jets. It's that of the game number one. The Jets allowed three touchdown passes to Lamar Jackson in week one, three more to Joe Burrow in week three. After that, they allowed eight touchdown passes in their last 14 games.

Josh Allen scored 24.8 and 22.6 fantasy points and six points for passing touchdown leagues, way below his average. So you can't get away from Allen. I actually have already gotten a few questions about sitting Stephon Diggs, but just Allen and Diggs. I mean, you already talked about Gabe Davis.

You'd like to get away from him, but Allen and Diggs, there's no way you're even considering sitting them, right? No chance. Okay. I want to ask you about Gabe Davis here, because if he's just the same player that he was last year, where mostly reliant on the deep ball, well, the Jets barely ever gave those up, those long completions, and Davis was dreadful in two games,

one with an injured Josh Allen last year. Do you think Gabe Davis is going to be a more well-rounded wide receiver this year, and we're going to see a different profile? He'll still obviously be that deep threat, but I'm hoping that he evolves a little bit more as a receiver this year. What do you guys think about that for Davis? He certainly has the ability to, and from what it seems like,

they're using him in a little bit of a different way from what the practice reports were in training camp, but that's still what his role is. I think that's why they bring in somebody like Kincaid, is to use him as more of a middle-of-the-field threat along with Stephon Diggs. And there's going to be somebody that emerges, whether it's Hardy or maybe Khalil Shakir at some point during the season. But that's where I think maybe James Cook has a chance to win.

I just don't think for this week you want to trust Gabe Davis because unless he does hit one of those plays against – and it's not just Sask Gardner. DJ Reid's a great corner. Michael Carter's a great corner. You know, they have a lot of players back there that can you know, take away a lot of what most deep threats like to do and what most passing is like to do.

And there's going to be a lot of pass rush on Josh Allen. So yeah, for me, Gabe Davis is really a desperation third receiver if you're stuck. All right. Yeah, no, I understand understand i just i'm hoping we see something uh an evolution for gabe davis but we got to see it to believe it um buffalo running backs you guys like james cook you're not going to start damon harris obviously the jets they were not amazing against the run 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs 4.22 yards per

carry to running backs. You know, this is not as good as their past defense, I guess I'd say. Heath, do you like James Cook? I wouldn't say I like him. He's very close

to where I had him ranked, though, which is a borderline number two, a high-end flex. I'd rather start the Broncos running backs. I'd rather start both the Lions running backs. I'd rather start Najee.

But he's right in that range. I would prefer to sit him. Okay. Talked about the wide receivers. All right, how about Kincaid? Where did he fall in your rankings this week, Dalton Kincaid? 18. I think he's 15 for me in that range.

I mean, how much does this matter to you? Because this is something I have a hard time wrapping my head around. How much to even make of it? The Jets, they were 22nd against tight ends. And I do think just doing this job now for like 14 years, I don't think it's uncommon to see a team that has great cornerback play be great against wide receivers and struggle against tight ends. And it makes sense, right?

I mean, if you don't want to throw at the cornerbacks, you try to attack somewhere else. So this was a vulnerability for the Jets last year, so to speak. They weren't awful. But, you know, that stat in general, does that matter to you? Does it carry over, do you think, into 2023?

Is that what you're in? Well, I mean, he sort of alluded to this when he talked about matchups and looking at things like that. I think when you come into a season when there's not a lot of turnover from a side of the football and the Jets didn't have a lot of turnover, so it's the same coach, same system, same players for the most part, there's reasons to buy into what they do. And so, yes, I think you're right, Adam, that there's obviously, unless you're, you know,

one of the historically best defenses, which I believe DJ Reed said that the Jets are going to be a historically great defense and they could be, I, I generally would say, okay, that's a good spot to look at, but, um, I don't know how you feel about this, Heath, and it sounds like we're probably somewhat on a similar page. When it comes to rookies, I think I'm just thinking off the top of my head here, there's two and a half rookies that I want to trust this week, and that's it. And it's the two running backs that we know, Bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs. And Jordan Addison, I think, is a good third receiver this week. I don't want to start him as anything more just because I think he's got an opportunity in his matchup to play well.

But outside of that, I want to see what Dalton Kincaid can do. So I drafted a ton of him. He's probably my most rostered tight end. And so in some cases, I'm just going to roll the dice. And in a few cases, I'm starting Jake Ferguson over Dalton Kincaid this week because I think Jake Ferguson will have a better performance you know it's just a matter of how much you want to trust some of these young players new players getting opportunities and if the matchup does not feel great you know you asked baltimore receivers zay flowers matchup does not feel great

dalton kinkade's matchup does not feel great so when it comes to the rookies i'm going to take a little bit more of a cautious approach and that includes anth Anthony Richardson, who, you know, I like. So in the case of Kincaid here, I know it got off a little bit of a tangent, but I would like to, you know, avoid him if I can. Yeah. I, I, every single rookie in my projections lost target share or rush share from my full season projection to my week one projection. So I, I am universally lower on the rookies week one than I am for the full season. I think we see a lot of times that rookies,

when they smash, it happens a little bit later. Even the Alvin Camara, like the guy we compared Jameer Gibbs to, it was week five when it started, if I remember correctly. So I I'm, I'm just down on the rookies as part of the reason I'm down on

Kincaid as for 22nd against tight end. Like that's almost exactly as close to average as it is to league worst I just don't know that that qualifies as bad no it's not bad it's but it's it's considerably worse I think they were number one against receivers so you know right but I'm, I think if you're going to factor in defense versus position, then factor in the three worst and three best or the five worst and five best, but a team that's 20th or 22nd or like, I just, and again, maybe there'll be worse this year, but I just don't think those impact things very much.

Okay. Fair enough. My point was more like if they're so good on the outside that maybe teams would try to get the tight end more involved to avoid throwing at their cornerbacks when they face the Jets. We can move on. I don't think Josh Allen's shying away from anyone. No, he's going to throw a lot. But, okay, anyway, the other philosophy thing here is like, do you want to drop,

if you have just Dalton Kincaid, do you want to drop maybe a Tajay Spears or someone that you like for long-term potential to pick up a guy like Tyler Higbee, who you might have higher this week, or do you just ride it out with Kincaid and keep your high-end bench players? I think the name you said is interesting because I think for us, Higby's kind of a different animal than the rest of the tight ends you might pick up this week with no Cooper Cup against Seattle,

who was worst or second worst against tight ends last year. I might consider dropping for Higby. I'm probably not dropping for Gerald Everett or whoever that tight end 12 is that's on the waiver wire. Right. It's the Jawan Johnsons, Bergesons, Everetts. I don't want to leave anybody out of anybody's tight end flavor of the week that we've discussed. So those are the guys I think you've got to really make a tough call on.

But no, the last thing you want to do is – and I don't want to jinx anything – but the last thing you want to do is drop Ty J Spears and Derek Henry got for Vegas hurt. And you're like, what did I do? Right. Right. Okay. So for the jets, are you starting anyone other than Garrett Wilson? Uh, no. Okay. You want my fun Aaron Rogers stat? Yeah, man. So, uh, I always like to look to see if there's a history when a guy's played as long as he has against a coach. And so he's played against Sean McDermott twice since he's the head coach of the Bills.

One was in 2018 and one was last year. And both times he was held to under 20 fantasy points. And I think that matters. So there's a scheme here. There's a defense, there's, you know, some assignments that might matter that he throws at Rogers that Rogers was a little bit uncomfortable with. And so, uh, we'll find out, you know, he's, he's obviously got the spotlight on him. It's a Monday night game, first game for the, you know, uh, his, his tenure with the jets. So it would not shock me if he comes out and has a good game,

but I think he just, you know, again, looking at the defense and what they're going to throw at him, they're not the same defense with and without Von Miller. You've noted that time and time again, Adam. So we'll see. But, you know, week one, they've been preparing for this game. They want to get off to a good start as well. The Bills do. And so I think Rodgers is going

to be right around 20 fantasy points. So just outside the top 12. Anthony Richardson, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers. Who are you starting? Watson. Watson. Okay. Russell Wilson. For the season.

Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers? Rodgers. I've got Wilson. Who's the best running back? That would change for me if Judy does play. Who's the best running back who's the best running back in this game James Cook okay we may see Michael Carter get more snaps

than the other two guys this week I'm sorry would you start the Broncos guys over the Jets guys yes and just to clarify Brees Hall is the best running back in this game he's just not fully healthy yet but james cook is the best start in this game but running back jets dst you good with i think again it comes down to you know what you want to do with your

roster and your roster management you know so like i would prefer to start the jaguars the commanders the seahawks this week over the Jets and the Bills. But I don't know if I want to make that transaction. Yeah, I didn't draft them because they were playing the Bills week one. But if you drafted them, just start them. I'm not carrying two defenses and you want them for later. All right, I'm in midseason form, taking way too long on a game. So let's go to our next one.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh. We should have gone right to Jags and Colts. We could have got through that quickly. I think we can get through this one pretty quickly, honestly, at least for the Steelers side of it. San Francisco at Pittsburgh. Stat of the game number one. George Kittle has never caught a touchdown in week one. Stat of the game number two

is just a reminder about a stat. We'll see how it plays out. You're obviously starting Christian McCaffrey, but in the six games he played with Elijah Mitchell, he averaged 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game. In the five regular season games he played without Mitchell, McCaffrey averaged 25.89 more fantasy points per game when Mitchell wasn't there. He would have been RB7 with Mitchell, RB1 without Mitchell. Look, I'm just throwing, it's just whatever. We'll see what happens. Okay, so we're going to get

away from the Steelers as much as we can. Jamie said Deontay Johnson, not going to sit him in a three-receiver PPR league. I actually think the Steelers are really interesting because we want to get away from them, but can you actually get away from Najee or Deontay or George Pickens? There's going to

be a lot of tough decisions with those three. Do you have any? I mean, I can look at my one George Pickens team, just to give an example, because that's a three-receiver PPR league with a flex, and see if I have anyone that I could start over him. Yeah, let's see. Would I start?

I can't start Romeo Dobbs over him. I'm not going to start Juju Smith Schuster over him. I would, I'm not going to start Jonathan Mingo over him. I'm not going to start Kadarius Tony over him. I think I'm just going to roll with George Pickens. Well, I mean,

look at the names that you mentioned. Yes. You roll with George Pickens, but what happened to my bench? Man, this is one of my least favorite teams, by the way. That's a team I was drafting in the shower

on the phone with Jamie. True story. You have an uncomfortable number of bathroom stories with Jamie. It's true. I was not a FaceTime, though. It was just a speakerphone. I forgot I had to go somewhere. I don't remember where it was. All right.

Brock Purdy. The places that I've had to help you while you've been drafted. You were in the car yesterday. Yep. In the shower. You've been very helpful. I appreciate it. Any interest in Brock Purdy?

Everybody gets on me about me paying the winner, but I'm a very helpful commissioner. It's true. He's actually very, very good with drafts. Make sure everybody gets the player they want. Any interest in Brock Purdy? No. No. I wouldn't even start him in a two QB league.

No. Christian McCaffrey, yes. Debo, Samuel, Brandon, IU. How do you feel about them, Heath? Debo is a low-end number two wide receiver. IU is a low-end No. 2 wide receiver. Ayuk is a low-end No. 3 wide receiver for me. Like what Dave said earlier about the Steelers playing more man, I think if that's the case, then that'll be better for Ayuk,

and maybe I'm a little bit too low on him. But again, guys that I think it's interesting comparing these guys in full PPR, I'd go Deontay, Debo, Ayuk, and then Pickens. But in half PPR, Debo would be my favorite. And Jamie, how do you feel about that ranking? Deontay, Debo, Ayuk, Pickens in full PPR? I would go Debo, Deontay, Ayuk, Pickens. Okay, so a slight change at the top there.

Pittsburgh with middle of the pack against wide receivers. Really not a bad matchup. Pretty good matchup for all the good wide receivers they faced, most of them pack against wide receivers. Really not a bad matchup. Pretty good matchup for all the good wide receivers they faced, most of them anyway, last year. George Kittle, I mean, you drafted him, you're starting him. If you could make the decision, would you start Higby over Kittle this week?

I would. Yes. Okay. Start the Niners DST. Start or sit the Steelers DST? I would start both DSTs. They are both top five for me. And I hope I didn't shortchange the running backs. I mean, the Steelers in general.

But we talked about Najee earlier. I mean, he's not even top 24 for you guys this week, right? He currently is, but I have to make a couple changes, so he'll just be outside of that. Yeah, he's top 24 for me. Oh, I'm sorry. If he's coming off the field on third downs, we're going to be in trouble with Najee this week.

And yeah, the Niners are absolutely elite against the run. 3.32 yards per carry to running backs. That's ridiculous. Fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. Would you start a Chiefs running back over Najee Harris? No chance.

Chiefs running back over Najee Harris. If there is no Kelsey, I would consider McKinnon in PPR, but that would be really, really risky. Okay, let's go with our next game, Cincinnati at Cleveland. But first, this commercial break. We'll be right back. Cincinnati is at Cleveland. I'm really looking forward to this game here.

Stat of the game, no quarterback scored more than 23 fantasy points against the Bengals in 2022, but their secondary is very, very different. Also, the Browns have won five of the last six games in this series, and I think eight of the last 10. Has Joe Burrow ever beaten the Browns? Yeah, I think he's one in four. One in four, wow.

Yeah. Well, what do you guys think about Burrow this week? I mean, bad history against the Browns. Last year, he scored 17.5 points. I believe that was the game without Jamar Chase, and 20.6 fantasy points, and he's got the calf injury. Any hesitation, anyone that you have ranked over Burrow that would raise some eyebrows?

Like I said, for me, it was Tua initially, but I went back to Burrow. But of the top eight guys that were being drafted based on ADP, he is number eight for me this week. All right. Any surprises here? Mixon and Chubb are starters. Higgins and Chase are starters.

Cooper's at home. I looked at this. He had 13 or more PPR points in all but one home game last year. Yeah. Incredible. I mean, I'm going to give you the splits. He averaged 84.6 yards per game with five touchdowns in eight home games. Amari Cooper. He averaged 53.7 yards per game with four touchdowns in nine road games. And his best road game by far, 113 yards and two touchdowns, was actually a neutral site game at Buffalo.

It was played in Detroit, and it technically counted as a road game. It was very strange. So then we've got Donovan Peoples-Jones, Tyler Boyd. Well, Elijah Moore. Elijah Moore, sorry. That's the interesting one. I forgot he's on that team. No, I Moore, sorry. That's the interesting one.

I forgot he's on that team. No, I did. Sorry. Skipped over him. But any of these guys you want to play this week? I would consider Elijah Moore. I mean, he's just a borderline top 36 receiver for me, but I would consider starting him in three receiver leagues just because I like the fact that they're going to move him around.

We saw that in the first preseason game. Really, their second running back is not exactly settled right now. I know Jerome Ford's been practicing, but how much work will he get? How much work will Pierre Strong get? They may use Elijah Moore as kind of the pass catcher back there, but if they're going to be creative with him, again,

it's a revamped secondary. Pass rush, like you alluded to, is a little bit banged up right now. I really think Deshaun's going to come out and play well. So to Heath's point, I think it's 100% accurate. You know, you want to see it first unless you have some concerns. But unless you feel that much more confident, which I get in Jared Goff and Geno Smith and, you know, maybe Kirk Cousins, but ADP doesn't say that Cousins was drafted.

ADP says Cousins was drafted ahead of Watson. Those are really the only guys I would start over Deshaun Watson at this point. I think he'll be good enough in that 20 to 22 point range. That'll be a low end starter this week. I think one of those guys, whether it's going to be Njoku or Elijah Moore, and I would lean toward Njoku just because, again, the safeties are completely different for Cincinnati. I think those changes will matter.

Heath, as someone who's nervous about Watson this week, I look at a couple guys who have great matchups on paper. Derek Carr against the Titans, Russell Wilson against the Raiders. Would you go that far? I have really struggled with Watson and Wilson. Going back and forth with those guys. But I would slightly, for now, prefer Watson and Wilson. Going back and forth with those guys. But I would slightly, for now, prefer Watson over Wilson.

It's close enough that if there's a big swing in the line, that might impact it. But no chance I'm starting. I'm just way off where everybody else is with Derek Carr, as I have been for the past couple of years. So, no chance with Derek Carr. And as far as Njoku goes, do you like him? Do you love him? He's a definite starter. Higby's the only guy who might have been drafted behind him who I would consider starting ahead of him.

Okay. Start a DST in this game? Bengals and Browns? I would prefer not to. All right. Here's an easy one. Jaguars and Colts. Stat of the game. This is actually interesting because some of you, you might have Alvin Kamara. You might be struggling at running back this week. A player, Davon Hamilton, is starting the season on IR for the Jaguars, defensive lineman. Last year, they allowed 3.5 yards per carry to running backs

with Hamilton on the field and 4.7 yards per carry to running backs with Davon Hamilton off the field. So that's an interesting statistic for a defensive tackle because those guys, like those big run stuffers, hardly any of them play all game anyway. I'll give you that stat with Jordan Davis for the Eagles and how much better they were with him on the field or off the field. But he played like 35% of the snaps usually. So, you know, you get third down runs. You can get like second and 10. He may not be on the field.

But maybe their best run stuffer is not playing. So the Jaguars, you know, it's all systems go for them. I guess we can talk about Christian Kirk, but I'll come back to that. Let's talk about the Colts running backs. Is there anyone you like this week for the Colts in the backfield? Who would it be, and how much do you like them? I don't like any of them, to be honest with you. I think Deion Jackson would be the preferred choice, but we could see Evan Hall. It could just be mixing and matching, and maybe one of them falls into the end zone. But look, we have a history of quarterbacks like this not using their running backs the least amount in the NFL last year. And then you have guys that are just guys, you know, so Evan Hall is the most

intriguing just because we haven't seen him yet. But I mean, what has Dion Jackson shown us in the limited times he's been out there? That's like, Oh my God, I got to have this guy and trust him. So unless he surprises us, which he could, um, I would just prefer to stay away. So that's why I was kind of getting at like, you know, it of getting at it. You can find some replacement wide receivers to help you find a replacement running back that you can trust this week. It's a little bit tough. Yeah, and there's lots of people.

Like, listen, people drafted Cooper Cup and Jonathan Taylor and Jerry Judy. There's lots of guys that we're missing in week one. It feels like more than normal. And I think Deion Jackson is the best option if you need a replacement flex. If Zach Moss is somehow okay, then I think he would be the best option

if you need a replacement flex. But that's what they are, is replacement flexes. Let's say the Packers wide receivers are both out. Would you start Jaden Reed over Michael Pittman? Yes. Probably, but I don't have Pittman in my top 48 wide receivers. All right. Anthony Richardson, where does he end up in the rankings for you guys?

19 or 20, but a serious, serious FOMO I have not starting him because the thing that he does well, if they call the offense that I think they're going to, he could just come out and rush for a hundred yards and two touchdowns. It doesn't matter if he can throw correct. A hundred yards and two touchdowns is probably asking a lot. I mean, even I know he's going to be a great rusher, but I don't think you're projecting him for 1700 rushing yards. I didn't say I was projecting him. You don't have FOMO. If I hadn't projected for that, he would

already be ranked in the top 10. Yeah. You did rank him in the top 10. I hope he comes out and has just an absolute standout game. The funny thing is what I think you're going to see, Adam, is going

to be like, oh, wow, when he takes off running. Of course. Because two-thirds of the guys on the field are going to look like they're you and me and Jamie chasing him compared to his speed. He is like the thing that you love about running backs. Anthony Richardson has that as a quarterback.

I'd start him at running back. What? His wife is going to be awesome. at i'd start him at running back what his wife he's gonna be awesome i definitely started at running back i think he's probably gonna be a top 12 running back this year wow you know we've had a lot of people get in trouble for saying stuff like that what do you mean no i'm saying his points calling calling running quarterbacks oh no his points per game will be top 12 among running backs i feel confident in that not quarterbacks i just I'm absolutely loving it.

I'm just, this is going to be so fun. I think it is fun. Replaying. It is. What's that? It's undeniably fun, right?

Now this whole Anthony Richards thing, because I'm taking a big risk. I understand how stupid I could look. Yeah. So, you know.

At least you understand it. But you, but more people are, in fairness, more people are on my side, I think, than yours. I think more people are on your side on Lamar Jackson not being able to throw. It's not like—I don't think that he's doomed for a career perspective. I don't think he's going to be a good passer.

We're going by what the public said. Trey Lance is a much better quarterback prospect than Jalen Hurts. You think you have assigned an opinion about Lamar Jackson to me that I don't have. So I just want to say that. No, that you did have. Yeah, he improved. You've changed. He improved.

That's what young quarterbacks do. Right, but he didn't improve as a rookie. He improved throughout time. I think it's going to take time for Richardson. Where would Lamar Jackson have ranked if he started every improve as a rookie. He improved throughout time. I think it's going to take time for Richardson. Where would Lamar Jackson have ranked if he started every game as a rookie, as a fantasy quarterback? So based on what he did in his eight starts?

Yeah. He was something like 10th per game in four point and like 18th per game in six point. Huge, huge gap. Which I do think is going to be the case for Richardson as well. All right, Christian Kirk. huge huge gap which i do think is going to be the case for richardson as well um all right christian kirk would you start christian kirk over a steelers wide receiver yes yeah he's a he's a must-start wide receiver for me i'm not like top top 20 for sure i think dave has some concerns about him because of the he thinks that the colt slot coverage will be good

i don't think the colts anything actually coverage will be good. I don't think the Colts' anything is going to be very good. You know what? I think they may have had the best slot coverage last year. I forgot. That was one stat that I forgot to look up. I think Christian Kirk scored 30 fantasy points and three touchdowns against him last year, but that might be wrong.

He didn't have three total touchdowns against him. You're correct. He did. He had a 78-yard game and he had a 24-yard game. All right. One thing I want to bring up is that this Jaguars run defense, sorry, this Colts run defense, they basically didn't have Shaquille Leonard last year. Is he okay?

I think so. Is he not? Two years ago, they were fourth best against running backs. It's just something to keep in mind. They might be a lot better up front, even though they lost Bobby Okereke. Leonard, being healthy, he was arguably the best linebacker in football.

I was asking not because Shaq Leonard was still hurt from last year, but he was in the concussion protocol as of yesterday. Oh, I did not know that. I'm sorry. He may be out. I'm trying to look it up now, but 21 hours ago, he was still in the protocol. All right, so that game's done.

Jacksonville DST, we like a lot. Start them. Houston at Baltimore. Stat of the game number one, the Roquan Smith factor. In weeks one through eight, the Ravens allowed 4.4 yards per carry to running backs. After the Roquan Smith factor. In weeks one through eight, the Ravens allowed 4.4 yards per carry to running backs. After the Roquan Smith trade,

3.6 yards per carry to running backs. Fourth best in the NFL in that stretch. Only two rushing touchdowns in those games. I believe that was nine or 10 games. I think nine. All right, here's another stat. And that's why we're nervous about Damian Pierce., here's another stat. And that's why we're nervous about Damian Pierce. But here's another stat.

The Houston Texans were the best team against quarterbacks last year. Lamar Jackson had four matchups last season against top 10 opponents. He had one good game. He scored 17 or fewer fantasy points in three of the four. This was the toughest matchup.

Why was it the toughest matchup? Because they had the worst run defense, and nobody threw on them. So, it was bad for receivers, and it was terrible for quarterbacks. Does any of that matter? And by the way, last year against Houston, Justin Herbert, 25 points, Jalen Hurts,

23, Daniel Jones, 21, Patrick Mahomes, 36. Mahomes was the only one who had a great game. Does that matter at all for Lamar Jackson, or are you guys just gung-ho about him? No, and if you take it a step further, remember Tua was on his way to a huge game too before they pulled him in halftime.

That's true. So, no, it doesn't matter because I think the thing that you get concerned about here is will the, you know know and like he was talking about with the Steelers like are we going to see the best of the Ravens passing game this week I would probably say no but that doesn't mean that we can't still get some things that you say okay he's throwing a little bit more he's doing this a little bit differently you know the this is how it's going to look over the course of a game so that's what I think you look for

but I think when push comes to shove, Lamar is going to be Lamar. And if he has to run because he's, you know, they have a few three and outs in a row because the passing game is just not clicking, then that'll happen. But I think this is a Mark Andrews game as long as he's there. I think this is a JK Dobbins game for sure. And I think Lamar will still be able to be not just productive enough, but very productive that you'll still be very happy starting him. He's a top five quarterback.

This is the type of game script where I would generally adjust whatever I had projected for like pass-run split to go more run heavy because Baltimore is going to be ahead and Houston's not going to be able to score. But I do question that with new offensive coordinator, new system.

Do they just want to work on the things that they plan on doing this year instead of going super run heavy in the third quarter when they're up by three scores? But yeah, I don't think that the Texans performance last year against quarterbacks matters. Okay. Damian Pierce, give me an expectation for him so we can kind of figure out, are we starting a Cortland Sutton over him? Are we starting Michael Thomas?

Are we starting anyone who's going to catch some passes over Damian Pierce in a PPR league? What's your expectation for him? I've got him projected for 15 carries, 65 yards, two catches, 13 yards, and about a 50-50 chance at a touchdown. I would probably lean it. I agree with the rushing. I'd probably lean a little bit more and give him a little bump in the passing game.

And in full PPR, I do have Sutton just ahead of him. Okay. James Cook or Damian Pierce? I may have asked you that earlier uh Pierce for me I I yeah I've got them separated by a tenth of a point right now I have Cook ahead right now but um check back on Sunday morning I asked you guys off the air today someone said Kadarius Tony or Nico Collins. Who would you guys start? If Travis Kelsey is out, I would start Cadareous Tony. You'll know that Thursday

night. Yeah, I think I'm the same way. If Kelsey plays, it's Nico. Who's your highest-ranked Ravens receiver? Is it Flowers? Yes. I've got Flowers and Bateman back-to-back. Both good boom-bust flex options.

But you'd start Damian Pierce over them? Oh, yeah. Actually, who's your highest-ranked receiver in this game? Flowers. Who'd you say, Heath and Nico? Uh-huh. Okay. Start the Ravens DST.

And I want to take a quick pause here to look at a statistic because I was wrong about the Colts. They were middle of the packs DST. And, you know, I want to take a quick pause here to look at a statistic because I was wrong about the Colts. They were middle of the pack against slot receivers. Let me tell you that the four or five teams that gave up the most receiving yards out of the slot last year. The Lions, way ahead of everyone. Sky Moore.

The 49ers. Who's playing in the slot for them this year? The Steelers. The 49ers. Who's playing in the slot for them this year? The Steelers. The Steelers. The Raiders facing the Broncos. So maybe if Jerry Judy gets out

there, or maybe it's the rookie, Marvin Mims. The Titans against the Saints and the Bears against the Packers. So Lions, Niners, Raiders, Titans, Bears gave up the most yards out of the slot. Speaking of the Raiders, it's the Raiders at the Broncos.

It's that of the game. Cortland Sutton in four games without Jerry Judy or with Judy leaving with an injury. He had 12.6, 13.0, 13.5, and 19.7 PPR fantasy points. That was with only one touchdown. Actually, I don't think he scored any touchdowns in those games. Yeah, he had 122, 66, 80, and 75 yards. That's a pretty reliable wide receiver.

And as I mentioned earlier, the Raiders are expected to have one of the worst secondaries in football. So is there a great start in this game on the Broncos side, or are they all just kind of flexy? You have to make the noise if they're flexy. In terms of the way you're phrasing it, they're all just flexy. I don't think anybody's a great start. But I think Javante Williams is worth starting.

I think Cortland Sut Williams is worth starting. I think Cortland Sutton is worth starting. And Russell Wilson, if you're stuck, is worth starting. Yeah, I've got Javante, P. Ryan, and Sutton all as borderline number twos.

Great flex options. Who's on the all-bench team this week? As in players who are likely on your bench, but you're going to be using them as starters this week. D players who are likely on your bench, but you're going to be using them as starters this week, drafted to be on your bench. So I think Sutton and Mostert come to mind.

Higby is the tight end. Jared Goff's the quarterback. Okay. The running backs for me are Jamal Williams and Samaj AP Ryan. The wide receivers are Cortland Sutton. This is fun. I don't, I can't think

of the second. Second receiver that was drafted as a bench guy? That I'm, I mean, I guess technically Tyler Lockett. No, he's a little too high end I think. Where do you have Michael Thomas? Michael Thomas pretty high? 32nd? Thomas works do you have Michael Thomas? Michael Thomas pretty high? 32nd?

Thomas works. You have Michael Thomas and then Higby for sure. Okay. Jamie, who would your running backs be? Would they be Jamal Williams? Mostert for sure. 100%. I would probably go Mostert and P. Ryan

over Jamal Williams. Alright. Sit Garoppolo. Start Josh Jacobs, start Devontae Adams. Yes, the Broncos have Patrick Sertan, one of the best in the business. Devontae Adams absolutely lit them up last year. Two massive games, and plus he's Devontae Adams. And just looking at all the wide receiver performances last year against the Broncos, I was a little surprised how many good ones there were when it came to, you know,

the good receivers. Wilson, where's he in your rankings? Russell Wilson this week, 16, 17. Yeah, he's,

he is right. And there's, there's a group of guys, Watson, Wilson, Rogers, 14, 15, 16, 17, that I've not fully decided what order those guys are going to be ranked in, but he's in that group. And so what changes if Jerry Judy plays?

Where does Sutton go? Where does Judy go? Where does Wilson go? I mean, he's obviously not going to be 100%, so you can't rely on Judy to start. I wouldn't really change anything, maybe just lower Marvin Mims. Yeah, and I might drop Sutton from top 30 to top 36. Javante Williams or a commander's running back?

Javante. Javante. Oh, no, Brian Robinson. I like Brian Robinson. Javante Williams or Khal commander's running back? Javante. Javante. Oh, no. Brian Robinson. I like Brian Robinson. Javante Williams or Khalil Herbert? Javante. Javante. Okay.

Marvin Mims. If Judy's out, Marvin Mims is compared to, let's say, I can't compare him to Josh Reynolds because he's playing tonight. I mean, he wouldn't do anything crazy like Mims over Gabe Davis or anything like that, right? I would. Oh, you would? Yep. Heath?

No. All right. And that's it. That's the end of that. Oh, Dulcich. How do you guys feel about him? Greg Dulcich against the Raiders. One of many guys I'm really interested in seeing what they do this week,

but I can't trust them i i'm afraid he won't waste half the snaps he's behind as much as i don't love gerald everett but i like gerald everett's matchup better and how about jake fergus i know jamie would take ferguson over dulcich how about you heath yeah i'm so nervous that it's going to be like Peyton Hender shot getting the touchdown for the Cowboys. Yeah. I'm not ranking Ferguson as a, as a starter.

I just am pretty low on Dulcich. Okay. Eagles are at the Patriots. The Eagles defense has a lot of new faces and they struggled a little bit last year without CJ Gardner Johnson, who is now with the lions. Um, the Patriots defense keep reading about how great it's going to be.

I have some doubts because I think Christian Gonzalez might be their best cornerback, and he's a rookie. So, I mean, they're better in their front seven, I think, than they are in their secondary, but they are the Patriots after all. Eagles going to steamroll them? What do you guys think? I don't know steamroll, but they win i think they should cover i i bet it's i bet it's in doubt in the fourth quarter the line here is the patriots plus four eagles minus four totals 45 okay that's a lot of mac

jones against that defense so we're starting all the eagles except the running backs we kind of want to wait and see and i'm guessing swift swift is your favorite of their running backs right right yes um any patriots well yeah you said juju i think i asked you who's a better flex juju or swift and you guys were split right heath you said juju and jamie said swift i think swift um who's a better stevenson's on the patriots though and you guys were split, right? Heath, you said Juju and Jamie said Swift. I would say Swift. Who's a better... Andre Stephenson's on the Patriots, though. I was going to... He's not a flex.

He's a starter. You know, people might be nervous about this matchup, but the Eagles actually weren't very good against the run last year. I think that could change. They got some real young guys, especially at linebacker, and Jordan Davis, who I mentioned earlier,

going into his second year. But that was their weakness. And it really might have been why they lost the Super Bowl. especially at linebacker and Jordan Davis, who I mentioned earlier going into his second year, but they, that was their weakness. And I really might've been why they lost the Superbowl. They could not really stop Pacheco. It's one of the reasons anyway. Um, so Stevenson, no brainer,

just start them. I mean, Pacheco Superbowl hero. They couldn't, they struggled against the run. It was one of the reasons it was an underrated reason. Yeah, really? It was. They the reasons. It was an underrated reason. Yeah.

It was. They had to respect. They couldn't stop the run. It was really more because they couldn't stop Kadarius Toney on the park. Decades from now when they're discussing the Chiefs dynasty, just like the helmet catch, what everybody's going to remember is how the Eagles couldn't stop Isaiah Pacheco. There were many reasons.

I'm pretty sure when they handed out the ballots Isaiah Pacheco. There were many reasons. I'm pretty sure when they handed out the ballots, it was MVP. There were many reasons. There was Pacheco's name right there. It was awesome. Okay, anyway. Start Stevenson. Juju Smith-Schuster or

Cortland Sutton? Sutton. Juju or take a look at the old Sutton Juju or um take a look at the old sketchy here Juju or Pittman

Juju Juju or Jordan Addison in his first game Addison Juju for me but I like I said I'm discounting the rookies a little bitison. Juju for me, but like I said, I'm discounting the rookies a little bit this week. Juju or Brandon Cooks at the Giants?

Cooks. Juju for me. Sit the Patriots tight ends and start the Eagles DST. And they believe this is our last game. Miami at the Chargers. Stat of the game. Oh yeah. A running back rushed for 100 or more yards in four of the game. Oh, yeah. A running back rushed for 100 or more yards

in four of the last five games against the Chargers last year. A running back had 99 or more rushing yards in 12 of 17 games against the Chargers. In the last three seasons, oh, I don't have that stat, but they've been bad against, oh, no, I do. Here's what they've allowed per carry to running backs the last three seasons.

In 2020, 4.58 yards per carry. Oh no, I do. Here's what they've allowed per carry to running backs the last three seasons and 2020 4.58 yards per carry in 2021, 4.61 last year, 5.58 yards per carry to running backs. Doesn't look like they've made substantial upgrades to their run defense unless Eric Kendricks at linebacker can make a big difference here. So I'm excited about most hurt Heath. You don't seem to be as excited about Mostert. Yeah, I mean, he's a high-end

flex for me. I do think that the matchup's probably pretty good. I'd worry about the Dolphins going super pass-heavy because they're playing from behind. I don't think they're going to be able to stop the Chargers in this game. And Raheem

Mostert comes with his own risks yeah well he only needs to stay healthy for one game i'll be happy he had uh seven games last year with at least 15 total touches and he averaged 14.8 ppr points per game in those seven years i love it and a little bit in the passing game, too. I mean, there's a four-catch game, a four-catch game, an eight-catch game for Raheem Mostert. There's a three-catch game. Oh, I didn't remember. The Dolphins played the Chargers last year.

They did. And they were miserable. And their whole team stunk. They were awful. He had 11 wins. Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and Salon Ahmed. The whole team stunk. I mean, Tua was terrible.

Tyreek Hill recovered a fumble and ran it in for a touchdown Waddle was awful it was just it was a dreadful performance they had 64 rushing yards

from their running backs combined look at that stretch they had last year at the at the Niners at the Chargers at the Bills

it was tough sure alright start I forgot to mention this I'm sorry but Waddle's on the injury report. I think a hamstring. I believe he practiced yesterday.

Yeah, I think he was limited. It's a hamstring because he was dealing with the abdomen injury. It's an abdomen. You're right. They're connected. Everybody has a hamstring. The abdomen is connected to the hamstring.

Somehow there's a few pieces in between. Wow. Not what I was talking about, but, uh, sit the dolphins tight end. Start Justin a few pieces in between. Well, not what I was talking about. Sit the Dolphins tight end. Start Justin Herbert. Start Austin Eckler. Any concerns about Mike Williams?

The Dolphins were pretty bad in allowing big plays last year that could favor him. Any concerns about Mike Williams? Not one. Okay. And Heath has a high... He's a number three wide receiver. Oh, just a number three. He's a number two for you, Jamie? not one okay and he has a high oh just a number three he's a number two for you Jamie Mike Williams

is a top 20 receiver from this week where's the difference Heath what would be your concerns I think I just have Mike Williams closer to where we had him in he's not a guy who got a big adjustment from me for week one upwards. A little one, but not a big one.

See, this I thought would be a guy, based on what you said earlier, would fall into the category when he's healthy. Yeah, no, he got a little boost because of Quentin Johnston losing target share too. So don't have a big argument against him. Okay, we're out. That's week one. losing target share too. So don't have a big argument against him. Okay. We're out. That's week one. And we got you at 7.30 PM Eastern tonight,

Thursday night. Join us. YouTube.com slash fantasy football today. Ask or start or sit questions. We will answer them and we'll see you then. We'll see you on Friday morning with a recap of tonight's game and start or sit for the NFC home games. Have a great day, everybody.

Enjoy football.