Fantasy Football Today - Start or Sit (AFC Home Games)! Burrow Encore? Start Javonte? Pats RBs? (12/30 Fantasy Football)

Episode Date: December 30, 2021

It's time to win some championships! We give you the players we love (3:50) and the players to avoid (6:15) in Week 17 with Matthew Stafford as the Start of the Week. Will Odell Beckham deliver? And i...s Saquon Barkley an easy sit this week? ... News and notes (10:30) and One Question for Each Game (20:30). Can Joe Burrow come through again? Is Kareem Hunt a decent flex if he plays? How much do we trust Hunter Renfrow? Javonte Williams? Devin Singletary? ... Start or Sit for Chiefs-Bengals (30:00), Rams-Ravens (37:15), Raiders-Colts (47:30), Broncos-Chargers (53:00), Browns-Steelers (59:30), Dolphins-Titans (1:04:00), Falcons-Bills (1:08:00), Jaguars-Patriots (1:15:10) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:21 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. We are into week 17. I mean, it's week 17. You're down with this already? Yes, I screwed up my YouTube intro. It's what Jamie's talking about.
Starting point is 00:01:39 Now we're on the non-YouTube intro, and everything was going great until I was interrupted. I hit the start button on the recording, and it was a lot faster than I anticipated. It totally threw me off. Also, my computer's trying to update, so I'm trying to get rid of that. A little flummoxed right now, but ready to win some championships with some starter set. What's up, guys? Jamie, what's up? How are you, my friend? Thirsty. I'm going to take a drink of water. Heath, what's up? I learned something today, Jamie, that I did not know. And I'm not sure what I'm going to do with this information for the next hour and 10 minutes.
Starting point is 00:02:15 But Adam doesn't want to know who he's facing in the fantasy playoffs. You just learned this? Like, he does not want me to tell him who's on my team in the podcast league or who is on our opponent's team in the For the People podcast league. That's right. And he's already told me three of his players in the podcast league because he couldn't resist. Well, I won't tell you my quarterback because I have not decided if I'm starting Kirk Cousins
Starting point is 00:02:42 or Trey Lance. Thanks, Heath. That's really nice of you. Yeah, I'd rather not stress out about it. Just root for my guys. Wait, I have a question. Because you made a big stink about playing defense to block your opponent's needs. Yeah. How do you block your opponent's needs if you don't know who you're facing?
Starting point is 00:03:01 I look before I do my waiver claims. Because I knew he had Cousins and Lance. I knew that. know who you're facing. I look before I do my waiver claims because I knew he had Cousins and Lance. I knew that. You do know. I forget. I forget. So are you going to be cheering for Joe Mixon because he's on our team
Starting point is 00:03:16 or against him because he's on my team? Again? Can you stop? Now I know you have Mixon. Can you just stop, please? I'm going to be cheering against him because I'd rather win our head-to-head matchup. And I know you have Mixon. Can you just stop, please? I'm going to be cheering against him because I'd rather win our head-to-head matchup. And I know you would, too.
Starting point is 00:03:30 All right, let's talk about Week 17. Here are the games we are taking a look at today. Kansas City and Cincinnati. We've got another big performance from Joe Burrow. Rams at Ravens. Please, can we get Lamar Jackson here? That would be more fun. The Raiders and the Colts. Denver and the Chargers. Please, can we get Lamar Jackson here? That would be more fun. The Raiders and the Colts.
Starting point is 00:03:47 Denver and the Chargers. Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Miami, Tennessee. Is that the... That's probably not the lowest total. Patriots, Jaguars. What's the lowest total this week? There are several below 40. Which one?
Starting point is 00:04:01 Texans, Niners, you said? Bears, Giants. Bears, Giants are 37 and a half. Panthers Saints are 38. Those are the two below 40 currently. Titans Dolphins are right at 40. Okay. Bills and Falcons and Jacksonville at New England.
Starting point is 00:04:20 Those are our games today. So, Jamie, we need a big start of the week for Week 17. What do we got? It's an interesting one because Matthew Stafford probably didn't help you get to the Fantasy Championship. I did see him playing against one
Starting point is 00:04:35 Matthew Stafford-led team and potentially another one. I think the manager has a quarterback decision to make. I do look. I'm not afraid of my opponents. But Stafford, this is a great matchup. The Ravens have been terrible against opposing
Starting point is 00:04:49 quarterbacks. The last two games, they've given up 75 fantasy points to Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers combined. The guys who have gone over 20 fantasy points against the Ravens this season include Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger. Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, the Chicago quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:05:18 Oh, no, Dalton did. I had them combined. 23 points. Fields had three. Dalton had 20. And you know what you should do? You're going to change your column. Make Beckham your start of the week. I like Beckham.
Starting point is 00:05:35 Yeah. Beckham's a good spot. I think Van Jefferson's a good spot, too. But I like the Rams passing attack. Obviously, Cup is a different category. But Stafford's been bad the last two weeks, 26 combined fantasy points. But I think he bounces back in a big way. He's been good on the road for the most part of the season,
Starting point is 00:05:53 five of eight games over 21 fantasy points, four of those games over 28 fantasy points. So I think he's going to deliver. And if you advanced despite a Stafford performance last week, go back to him. Don't be afraid. All right, Heath. Who do you like this week?
Starting point is 00:06:08 It's tough because we're facing him in the For the People podcast league, but I think David Montgomery could have just like RB1 overall type week for the Bears against the Giants. I think it would be good regardless, but if Nick Foles or Andy Dalton is the starting quarterback, we have just seen both of them pepper Montgomery with targets in the passing game. And he's been very good as a runner, and they're playing a Giants team that's not any good at all offensively and not particularly good
Starting point is 00:06:39 against running backs either. So I think it could be a 25-touch, 150-yard, two-touchdown outing from Montgomery. And I'm very excited because I finally don't have to make a case against David Montgomery. Yeah, let's go David Montgomery. Players to avoid. Who wants to go first?
Starting point is 00:06:58 Heath, are you ready? Well, I was trying to find somebody who was on one of the teams that you're facing this week before. No, I would like to stay away from melvin gordon um i don't really love giovante williams either even though the chargers run defense is not very good i just think that this broncos offense is so bad with drew lockett quarterback and joh Javante Williams has pretty much taken over the passing game role.
Starting point is 00:07:27 So I think you're getting from Gordon maybe eight to 14 carries, and I don't know if he gets into the end zone. He's a flex for me this week, but I would like to start two different running backs if I could. I'll stay there because I think the Javante discussion is pretty interesting.
Starting point is 00:07:47 Here we go. Well, no, it's interesting because of your rankings. Nobody seems too enthused about Melvin Gordon. I'm going to hit refresh on the rankings, but as I see it right now, Jamie has Javante Williams 17th and Heath and Dave have him 23rd. Sound right?
Starting point is 00:08:03 That's right for me. Yeah, Javante is going to get right for me. Yeah, Devontae's going to get lowered for me. Oh, okay. Well then, maybe this isn't as interesting of a discussion. But no, you know, I was looking at the Chargers run defense because I had said hey, they've gotten so much better.
Starting point is 00:08:18 They've been a lot better since their bye week. They've been a lot better since Justin Jones. Their starting defensive tackles come back and this and that. And then Rex Burkhead has that huge game last week and looks pretty silly. And I'm going to be honest with you. I'm having a tough time keeping track of all the players who have been on the COVID list the last few weeks. I did not realize that Justin Jones did not play in that game. So why don't you so it's still the stat still holds. Why don't you read the text you sent me? No.
Starting point is 00:08:46 Why? Some things have to stay between us, Jamie. But I think this is worth sharing. It was very, very well thought out. I feel like I'm like, was it about me? No, very articulate about Justin Jones, how he phrased it. Yeah, it's disgusting. I can't say it.
Starting point is 00:09:04 But he did a play. I't play excited about justin jones so yeah well where are you gonna lower him to giovante williams uh he's still number two running back i mean look last week was terrible drew lock was terrible um even with justin jones on the field they still go rushing rushing touchdowns he scored last week despite being terrible so i'm still starting giovante williams but i'm not starting him with as much confidence as i was prior to um your very um uh beautiful beautifully thought out text that you sent me all right all right who are you avoiding jamie give me a sit um i'm gonna say his name because i think it's worth talking about uh saquon barkley if i can um he's just struggling and it's frustrating it's not fun to start saquon Barkley if I can. He's just struggling.
Starting point is 00:09:46 And it's frustrating. It's not fun to start Saquon Barkley right now. They're going to use both quarterbacks according to Joe Judge. And Barkley's not been good. I'd like to avoid him, especially if a team makes plays. Okay. And let me see here.
Starting point is 00:10:02 The rankings for Barkley. I think it's probably a reverse of Javante Williams. Yeah, but nobody's too high on him. You have him 19th. Jamie isn't 23rd. Dave 22nd. That's full PPR. Non PPR.
Starting point is 00:10:13 He's 25th for everyone. So. So let's talk about the waiver wire running backs versus Saquon Barkley. Jamie, would you start? Darrell Williams, Dari Agumbawale, Boston Scott. Not Agumbawale, but the other two, yes, easily. Heath? I would start Darrell Williams for sure.
Starting point is 00:10:32 I would start Boston Scott if Jordan Howard doesn't play. But if Howard plays, I would start Howard over Barkley, but I'd start Barkley over Scott. Okay. Yeah, I always forget to include Howard in the waiver wire discussion, but he absolutely should not be excluded from that. Jordan Howard's still available, and if he starts, you know, he might get 15 carries.
Starting point is 00:10:53 We've got a big week of football, the NFL on CBS. The day's slate is highlighted by several games with playoff ramifications, including a huge matchup in Cincinnati when the Kansas City Chiefs battle the Bengals. As always, we'll get you set for all of the action with JB and the guys on the NFL today at noon Eastern Sunday. The NFL is on CBS.
Starting point is 00:11:15 All right, help me out here with the news and notes. Let's go. Dalvin Cook is back. Adam Thielen is out for the season. So K.J. Osborne. I talked about this with Dave on FFT in five, but now looking back at the waiver wire, the wide receivers, K.J. Osborne is clearly number one, right?
Starting point is 00:11:34 Yep. Yeah. Because Gabriel Davis and Beasley are back. MVS is back. And Mike Williams should be back. Jalen Guyton is back. So Osborne has the opportunity here against Green Bay. Travis Kelsey is back.
Starting point is 00:11:49 Brandon Cooks is back. Tim Patrick for the Broncos. He is now on the reserve COVID list. Ramondre Stevenson is off the COVID list. So he practiced yesterday. Are you ranking Ramondre Stevenson? Yes. Yep.
Starting point is 00:12:04 Okay. And so do you still have, well, this will be one of the last games that we look at today. Damian Harris is good, great start. What is he against Jacksonville? Still very good. Yeah, high-end number two running back
Starting point is 00:12:20 and non-PPR mid-range number two running back and full PPR. Better than Barkley in both formats. Green Bay cornerback Jair Alexander, he's practicing, not necessarily going to play, but keep that in mind. Lamar Jackson is practicing,
Starting point is 00:12:35 but not necessarily going to play. He was limping around at practice. If you need a backup, I mean, Tyler Huntley might not be the worst option. Let's say Garoppolo and Lamar Jackson miss the week. Would you rather start Trey mean, Tyler Huntley might not be the worst option. Let's say Garoppolo and Lamar Jackson missed the week. Would you rather
Starting point is 00:12:47 start Trey Lance or Tyler Huntley? Trey Lance is a better matchup. Lance. Okay. Let's see. Taysom Hill is back. So is Trevor Simeon. Justin Fields was... So let me throw him in there. Sorry.
Starting point is 00:13:03 Now you got Garopp... Sorry. What's his name? Trey Lance or Justin Fields was... Oh, so let me throw him in there. Sorry. Now you got Garopp... Sorry. What's his name? Trey Lance or Justin Fields? No. Trey Lance or Taysom Hill? Taysom over Ravens quarterback and over Trey Lance. I've got Lance, Taysom, Ravens quarterback.
Starting point is 00:13:19 But if it was Lamar, I'd probably have Lamar, Lance, Hill. Okay. Jamie, would you start Taysom Hill or Lamar Jackson? Taysom, Ravens quarterback. Really? Okay. I'm just concerned that Lamar's not healthy. I mean, he was at practice yesterday limping around. If he's not going to run to the same level, it could be a little dicey.
Starting point is 00:13:40 Okay. Taysom Hill facing the Panthers this week, likely without Stephon Gilmore. Because, you know, he's going to throw all over them. Justin Fields was limited in practice. Drew Locke is expected to start. Sam Darnold is going to start. James Conner missed practice. He'll be a game-time decision, and you know what that means for Chase Edmonds.
Starting point is 00:13:58 Antonio Gibson was limited with a hip issue now, but good that he was limited. With this talk about them playing multiple quarterbacks in the game, that makes me more nervous about Gibson. But is there a chance that Ron Rivera is going to repay his debt in this game? What is that?
Starting point is 00:14:21 Didn't the Eagles let Washington into the playoffs last year by benching all their players? Essentially. I mean, yeah. Well, Washington was winning the game when they pulled Jalen Hurts, but they also sat Miles Sanders that week, I think. That's an interesting theory.
Starting point is 00:14:40 Bills, they activated... Different coach, though, so... Yeah, they activated Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, and offensive lineman John Feliciano. Dan Campbell thinks DeAndre Swift will play this week, and I think he practiced in full, so get ready for DeAndre Swift this week. Brandon Cooks is back.
Starting point is 00:14:55 I think I already mentioned that one. There's a lot of stuff here. I'm sorry. Heath mentioned that both Washington quarterbacks are expected to play. Jamie already mentioned both Giants quarterbacks are expected to play, Fromm and Glennon. Barkley mispracticed yesterday, but right now we expect expected to play. Jamie already mentioned both Giants quarterbacks are expected to play Fromm and Glennon. Barkley mispracticed yesterday, but right now we expect him to play.
Starting point is 00:15:10 Why play him? Why? Again, this conversation, because that's what they do. They're football players. That's what they do. They're football players. They want to play. He's hurt. I don't think he's hurt to the point where it's going to get worse. He's just playing hurt. I mean, Joe Judge says he's playing through everything. He's just...
Starting point is 00:15:29 Why? Maybe they won't. Maybe they'll sit him. We were having this conversation yesterday. As a Giants fan, or a former Giants fan, whatever the hell you are now, would you take a third-round pick for Saquon Barkley? No. I don't think so. Why? He's still capable of being really good okay i don't think a bad team
Starting point is 00:15:51 is going to trade for him so what if it was like one of the last two picks or three picks of the second round yeah that's basically a third round pick yeah and the reason why is because you have to pay him soon if he were still cheap right probably not but you have to pay him so i'd rather get the second round probably not, but you have to pay him, so I'd rather get the second round pick. We had this conversation. I said, if I'm the Dolphins, I offer a conditional third to the Giants. I just know as a Giants fan, they haven't had a GM
Starting point is 00:16:15 that's made a good third round pick in ages. We're going to have a new GM. Yeah, and he'll suck. Jordan Howard was listed as not practicing. Darren Waller is on the reserve COVID list. Let's see. Let's fly through this here. Get to the important stuff.
Starting point is 00:16:29 Elijah Moore. Waller's on the COVID list? Waller, yeah. Yeah, I missed that one. Oh, there you go. See, we're all learning things. Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder, for that matter, 50-50 to play this week.
Starting point is 00:16:41 If Elijah Moore plays, would you consider starting him against the Bucs? I'd be 50-50 to start him. If I'm desperate, then I would start him. If I'm not, then I would avoid him. Jared Goff has a knee injury. He's questionable, we'll call him.
Starting point is 00:16:57 CEH mispractice. Jimmy Garoppolo mispractice, but has not been ruled out. Joey Bosa's back for the Chargers. MVS is back. Tyler Conklin didn't practice. Trey Sermon should play this week. Do you think that matters at all? Elijah Mitchell was limited against Houston.
Starting point is 00:17:15 Wait, Trey Sermon's going to be on the active roster. Yes, yes. So he doesn't matter. Who's been the most disappointing rookie? Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence, Trevor Lawrence for sure. Yeah, I guess I'm thinking like fantasy fantasy wise.
Starting point is 00:17:30 Yeah. Considering where he was drafted in seventh, eighth round, eighth round, maybe. But Lawrence was like the 13th quarterback being drafted. Wasn't he like, and that was me too.
Starting point is 00:17:40 I was saying like, if you're not going to get one of the starting quarterbacks, go get Justin Fields or Trey land or Trey and, or Trey Lance or Trevor Lawrence. I went in a 14-team league with my two quarterbacks as Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.
Starting point is 00:17:53 How'd that go? I lost in semis last week because of Tasey Hilton's play. Yeah, it's really amazing how you can just recover from draft picks that don't pan out. I'm playing Heath in the finals in my McCaffrey-AJ Brown league. Just keep it in mind. Don't ever give up when you lose a star player.
Starting point is 00:18:14 Well, this year in particular. Yeah, this year was nuts. And Colts are getting healthier. Some key players, including Quentin Nelson, two offensive linemen off the COVID list. They think they're going to get Rocky Sin back, I think, if they didn't already. He's back. Rocky Sin is back. They think they're going to get
Starting point is 00:18:32 Darius Leonard back. Good luck, Raiders. Good luck, Raiders. And honestly, well, we'll talk about it when we get to the game, but I'm really glad that you've got the week where you finally have to accept David Montgomery as a good number one running back,
Starting point is 00:18:47 but you still get to talk about maybe sitting Josh Jacobs. I just don't think he's a number one. He's a number two. I think it's obvious to me that I don't like inefficient running backs who get a lot of touches as much as a lot of other people like them. Well, YPC for life. Well, it's pretty important. I think he was great.
Starting point is 00:19:13 Yeah, he was. He had a good game. And he only had one catch and didn't score, so it actually didn't end up being that great of a game. I just, like, especially, like, it's different. It's not like he's been Saquon Barkley or Myles Gaskin. Like, 3.9 yards per carry looks much worse than it is because it starts with a three and not a four.
Starting point is 00:19:33 4.0 looks a lot more than a tenth of a yard better than 3.9. But he doesn't get that many carries either. In his last eight games, Josh Jacobs has 115 carries. So that's really, okay, you multiply it by two, 230 carries over a 16-game season. That's not that much. And in his last eight games, even in full PPR, with the second most catches among running backs
Starting point is 00:19:54 behind only Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs is RB19 per game. I think that is a clear case that he is overrated. In his last five games, he has 86 carries. That's on pace for 275. That's pretty good. It's trending the right direction. It's good. Alright, fine. But those eight games are the eight games without rugs.
Starting point is 00:20:15 So, that's why. It's not just the rugs. Maybe the last five. Yeah, Waller's missed four or five, depending on if you count the Cowboys game. He's on a 339 touch pace over the last five weeks touches are great but when he doesn't score he scores 13 fantasy points at most that's terrible that's there are 20 running backs averaging more than that in ppr
Starting point is 00:20:36 right but that's a good running back when he doesn't score he scores 13 fantasy points that's awesome that's good it's not awesome it's good he doesn't score that. That's awesome. That's good. It's not awesome. It's good. He doesn't score that often. You know, so it's the truth. Look, I'm just saying. The numbers don't lie. He's number 19 per game in full PPR. In this sample size. In eight games without Henry Ruggs. You know, and that's when his catches are up.
Starting point is 00:21:01 That's why I use it. I don't know. You know, it's not really fair because before those eight games, he left two or three games early with injuries. So I wouldn't judge him on that. All right, one question for each game. Kansas City and Cincinnati. Does Joe Burrow come through again?
Starting point is 00:21:21 He has a top ten week. Man, I feel like he's either going to have a top three week or he's going to have a week outside of the top 15. I'll just give you the stat of the game. It's the first game we're looking at. Quarterbacks against the Chiefs have thrown 38 or more passes in five straight games and 34 or more passes in seven straight games.
Starting point is 00:21:47 And when Burrow has thrown 34 passes, he has scored 22 or more points in five of seven games. I don't know if it's five weeks or six weeks, but I believe Justin Herbert is the only quarterback last five weeks. He's the only quarterback in the last five weeks to score more than 13 fantasy points. He's the only quarterback in the last 10
Starting point is 00:22:08 to score more than 21. And they've allowed 12 touchdown passes in their last 10 games. So while they are giving up a ton of pass attempts, Heath, you're right. They're not really giving up a lot of fantasy points. And like all those pass attempts, nobody's thrown for 300 yards against them
Starting point is 00:22:22 since week five. That's a good one. That should have been stat of the game. The only other good quarterback that they faced in that stretch was Dak. And he didn't have Cooper and Lamb got hurt. Right. He was miserable. But Derek Carr, always bad against them.
Starting point is 00:22:39 Roethlisberger, I mean, we know what that is. Jordan Love. Yeah. Yeah, I know know what that is. Jordan Love. Yeah. Yeah, I know. It's weird. Their defense has been so good. They've also had a much easier competition. I'm looking forward to this game. Alright. Ravens and Rams. Who is the second best wide receiver in this game
Starting point is 00:22:58 behind Cooper Cup? Beckham. Marquise Brown. Brown's been so bad. He has. Heath, vote of confidence? Yeah. I don't know that I have a vote of confidence.
Starting point is 00:23:19 Okay. Well, you're a little lower on Beckham. I think Brown, Beckham, and Van Jefferson all have top 12 upside on a week-to-week basis and all have five-point floors. I mean, Brown hasn't scored a touchdown since week seven. He's been under 55 receiving yards six games in a row. He's got two games where his PPR numbers have been saved because he had an eight-catch game and a ten-catch game.
Starting point is 00:23:41 And now he's facing this defense? Yeah, it is a pretty good defense and also i'll give you the stat of the game for this one um eight games matthew stafford has scored 25 or more fantasy points and six point for passing touchdown leagues in eight games cooper cup's been amazing in all of them but a second wide receiver has caught a touchdown in all eight games and a second wide receiver has scored 14 or more PPR fantasy points in six of eight games. So if you have Odell Beckham, you want to get excited about him. I think it seems like he's past Van Jefferson at this point.
Starting point is 00:24:16 If Stafford has that kind of game and he's facing arguably the worst secondary in football right now, there's a very good chance that either Jefferson or Beckham has a very solid game. I mean, Higby could score too. Yeah, but he's included. I mean, even with Higby having some good games in those eight huge games for Stafford, like I say, a wide receiver has caught a touchdown, a second wide receiver in seven of eight games
Starting point is 00:24:36 and 14 or more PPR points in six of eight. Yeah, I hope they get Whitworth back. That's something to keep an eye on to come off the COVID list. Healthy offensive line. This team does not pressure the quarterback. That's typically been keep an eye on to come off the COVID list. Healthy offensive line. This team does not pressure the quarterback. That's typically been the formula for success for Stafford. Most quarterbacks, obviously. But when he has time,
Starting point is 00:24:52 he's been amazing. He should have time. The only thing that concerns me about Stafford is the back-to-back road games, but I think he'll be okay. We got the Colts and the Raiders. Do you trust Hunter Renfro after two straight games with fewer than 50 yards
Starting point is 00:25:06 and figuring to face one of the better slot cornerbacks in the NFL? Trust, yes. Counting on huge game, no. Yeah, I think he's got eight targets in his last two games, which could just be the other teams have figured out how to take on Renfro away.
Starting point is 00:25:25 I think it's more likely it's that the Browns and Broncos score to combine 27 points against them in those two games. And I think there's going to be a ton of pass attempts for Derek Carr playing from behind. So I would expect Renfro to get back to what he was. Maybe not the three straight of 100 yards, but I'm starting him. Okay. Denver and the Chargers.
Starting point is 00:25:50 The only question I had for this one was start or sit the Denver running backs. We already did that. So is there another one here? Another, this is a pretty easy game, I think. I guess, can you trust Justin Jackson as a flex with Eckler back? I don't know. What's the answer? Well, I mean, two games ago, he was great. He had almost 100 total yards in tandem with Eckler,
Starting point is 00:26:08 who was coming back from the ankle injury. I don't think Eckler was on the injury report. He did say in his podcast with Liz Loza of Yahoo that he wanted to take the week to get his ankle right because he knew he wasn't playing. So maybe the rest helped him. You have the concerns of players coming off the COVID list. Is he going to be back to his usual workload?
Starting point is 00:26:29 And did Jackson do enough in his absence, in Eckler's absence, to earn a bigger role? I think all those answers are probably yes. So I don't think you have to necessarily fear Justin Jackson in a deeper league. I would prefer not to start him. But he's probably going to see as much work as he did in that game against the Chiefs as this week, too. Justin Jackson in a deeper league, I would prefer not to start him, but, um, you know, he's probably going to see as much work as he did in that game against the chiefs as, as,
Starting point is 00:26:48 as this week to a Goomba Wally or Justin Jackson, man, uh, I probably would go with a Goomba Wally just based on the guarantee touches, but I feel probably more confident with, with, uh, with Justin Jackson.
Starting point is 00:27:03 Okay. Uh, how about Cleveland Pittsburgh?ittsburgh who is the better best flex kareem hunt if he plays chase claypool or jarvis landry i'll go landry he had 100 yards i think against him in the first meeting i'd probably go hunt but i don't want to use any of them i think he had 100 yards against baltimore maybe you're right maybe that's why I was looking at Baltimore. He's really only had two good games as a receiver all year. Maybe three. Week one
Starting point is 00:27:30 and then two games against Baltimore. Alright, sorry. I'm sorry. He had 10 targets in that game. He had five for 65. Okay. So it's Hunt, Claypool, Landry. Who's the best flex? Sorry. I'll still say Landry. I don't know if Hunt's 100% going to be placed.
Starting point is 00:27:49 Heath? I'm sorry, what was your answer? I said Hunt. Hunt, okay. Miami, Tennessee. Just Waddle and A.J. Brown in this game? Yes. I think Foreman's a flex.
Starting point is 00:28:03 Okay. Foreman or Agumbawale? Foreman's a flex. Okay. Foreman or Agumbo Wally? Foreman. Foreman in non-PPR. I'll take Agumbo Wally in PPR. When I saw this yesterday, it was pretty staggering. Do you know what the Dolphins' run defense has been lately? I don't have the number that you're going to have,
Starting point is 00:28:21 but yes, I know they've been... There's probably about eight games now they've been amazing. They have not allowed a running back to score a touchdown since week seven, and depending on how you classify quarterback Patterson, it's week six. And that's taking on Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara,
Starting point is 00:28:39 and Michael Carter twice. Now Carter left the game, but still, he did play a good portion of the game. Barkley in week 13 is the only running back with more than nine PPR points against Miami in the last seven games. Yeah. Also, no running back has more than 13 carries
Starting point is 00:28:54 against the Dolphins in their last eight games, which is kind of strange. Yes, I would not trust Deontay for me. I said it a few weeks ago. They had three defensive tackles. Three interior linemen that were ranked in the top 15 against the run by PFF, and two of them were the top six. I haven't looked at updated recently, but...
Starting point is 00:29:13 Christian Wilkins was in Alvin Kamara's head last week. Yeah, he's having a big year. Yep. All right, how about Atlanta Buffalo? There is always the get-in-the-way team that you don't want to see in the playoffs, and there are a few of them this season for the AFC because the Titans' defense is nasty.
Starting point is 00:29:30 The Colts' defense is nasty. This is the team you do not want to see in the playoffs. The Dolphins? Yes. Oh, I don't agree. I think they're exactly what they were last year. The nice thing is you probably won't see them in the playoffs. No, if they win both their games.
Starting point is 00:29:42 Well, if they win both their games, they're in. And they've got the Titans and the Patriots. And those are winnable, but probably not going to win both. We'll see. I think the answer to that question comes after these two games. I just don't... This may be the best defense in the AFC right now. It's not, but it's in the conversation.
Starting point is 00:30:00 I don't know. I don't think they can be a truly good team. I think the Chiefs would crush them. The Ravens would probably crush them if they have Jackson. Well, they crushed the Ravens with Jackson. Yes, they did. That was the best game they played. They came all over.
Starting point is 00:30:19 Wow. They were all over Lamar Jackson. That was a great game on Thursday night at home. But I don't really, I just don't buy the Dolphins. I mean, it could be fluky. And also, I don't think the Titans and the Patriots are good teams right now. Or special. They're fine.
Starting point is 00:30:38 I would agree. Now, if Henry comes back, it's another story. I would agree. Okay, one more game. No, two more games. Real quick. Atlanta-Buffalo, who's the best running back in this game? Singletary.
Starting point is 00:30:53 Singletary. And Jacksonville-New England. If Ramondre Stevenson plays, rank the running backs. Harris, Darre. Harris, Stevenson, Ogumbawale. Harris, Darre, Stevenson. Okay. Here we go. Kansas City's at Cincinnati. Harris Darae Harris Darae Stevenson here we go Kansas City's at Cincinnati
Starting point is 00:31:09 gave you the stat about all the quarterbacks who have thrown all those passes against the Chiefs and that's usually good for Burrow but it hasn't really mattered against the Chiefs lately so we will see what happens there let's go to stat of the game number two Joe Mixon does anybody care about this he's averaging 3.26 yards per carry in his last four games.
Starting point is 00:31:29 And then the catches. There's no rhyme or reason for when Joe Mixon has a lot of catches. It's not score dependent. It's not pass attempt dependent. It's sometimes he has four to six, and sometimes he has zero to one, and pretty much nothing in between. I would imagine after what he did last week in their biggest game in God knows how long,
Starting point is 00:31:51 if he's coming off the field, they're crazy. Still, it just doesn't seem to matter. He's got nine games with a combined seven catches and six games with four to six catches. A running back has four to seven catches in seven straight games against the chiefs though. So hopefully that continues. It doesn't matter. You're starting him.
Starting point is 00:32:11 I mean, I want to talk a lot about this game, but I feel like, you know, it's a lot of starts, right? No, I don't want to waste too much time here.
Starting point is 00:32:20 Heath. Who are you sitting is probably the better question. Yeah. Who are you sitting? Heath, I'll give you the first word. Um, I, Tyler Boyd? That's the closest I am to saying.
Starting point is 00:32:32 I don't mind him as a flex, I guess. But CJ Uzama? I'm not going to start him. Derek Gore is, again, kind of in that Tyler Boyd flex range. But the starters, you're starting. All right, Mahomes is top three. Let's talk about Daryl Williams. In the five games that Clyde Edwards either missed,
Starting point is 00:32:52 he was RB4. Per game, he was about 12th. Three really good games fantasy-wise and two duds. Yeah. And Derek Gore only had a big role in one of those games. The last one. No, actually, it was the third one
Starting point is 00:33:10 against the Giants. Oh, you're right, I'm sorry. The last one was the Raiders game where Williams had all the catches. Yeah, and Gore had six carries in that game. Three of them came in. It was a 20-point game. But yeah, do you think it's a bigger split,
Starting point is 00:33:26 a more even split this time? No. I think it probably depends on what the Chiefs do offensively and how competitive the game is. I think if the Chiefs have a lead and they're running the ball successfully in the second half, then it's probably more 50-50. Because I think if you're handing the ball off,
Starting point is 00:33:44 Derek Gore's at least as good as Daryl Williams and has more pop. it's probably more 50-50. Because I think, like, if you're handing the ball off, Derek Gore's at least as good as Daryl Williams and has more pop. But if they're in a game where Mahomes is throwing 45 passes, then it's going to be almost all Daryl Williams. Okay. So let's talk about Daryl Williams versus Josh Jacobs. Jacobs. If Leonard plays for the Colts,
Starting point is 00:34:09 I'll probably still start Jacobs, but it'll be much closer. Okay. Daryl Williams versus Damian Harris. Full PPR. Williams. Now that Steven's back. Okay.
Starting point is 00:34:22 So Williams is a start. Tyreek Hill, I know he's been very up and down. Last week, he was not healthy. He was exhausted and used as a decoy, but you're going to start Tyreek Hill. Any interest in Byron Pringle? Not with Kelsey and Hillback, no. Okay. And Kelsey is a no-brainer, even though there seems to be a trend of players struggling, at least having more of a chance to struggle coming off the COVID list? I survived in two leagues without Kelsey, starting Ricky Seals-Jones and Cole Komet. I will happily put Travis Kelsey back in my lineup. Okay, yeah, we'll start.
Starting point is 00:34:56 I think if you have Mark Andrews, then you could start him over Travis Kelsey, maybe even George Kittle too. How about Gronkowski? I'd go with Kelsey. Yeah, the only tight end I would start over him is Mark Andrews. Alright, Joe Burrow is top 10.
Starting point is 00:35:10 Joe Burrow or Trey Lance or Taysom Hill? Burrow. This is one where I actually have Trey Lance and Taysom Hill projected ahead of Burrow and I just move Burrow ahead in the rankings because I'm a coward. But probably Burrow's and I just move Burrow ahead in the rankings because I'm a coward. But probably
Starting point is 00:35:26 Burrow's probably the right choice. He's had some, and this happened to him last year too, I think he had like four, five, 300-yard games where he was under 20 fantasy points. He's got 300 or more yards in three of his last four games. It's hard
Starting point is 00:35:42 to imagine him not throwing a lot in this game. I think the spread is an insult. Five-point dogs at home, I would take the Bengals. How about you guys? I'm going to take the Bengals, yeah. I think it opened at four and 47 and a half. And so money is just pouring in on the over.
Starting point is 00:36:08 That's up to 50 now. And the Chiefs. Okay. It's not really that surprising. They usually make a team like the Bengals prove it in this situation first, right? I don't know. It's funny. The Chiefs have been amazing.
Starting point is 00:36:26 I hate saying who have they played, but you look at some of the teams they played and where they played them, it just makes you wonder how fixed are they? That is the thing, where they've played them. The last time they went on the road was at the Chargers. They won an overtime game. But they were missing guys. It's like, again, you can't say,
Starting point is 00:36:44 okay, they played this without this and this without that. So take that into account. How confident are you guys in Jamar Chase in this game? Because I think it's so hard to sit T. Higgins. He's been 114 or more yards in four of his last five games. He looks like he's the number one receiver there. But Chase coming off a great game against Baltimore, but he's obviously been pretty up and down.
Starting point is 00:37:13 And the Chiefs against outside wide receivers have been very, very good. So how confident are you in Jamar Chase? Must start guy and you take your lumps. Yeah, it's like I'd put him right in that Tyler Lockett range in that I'm not sitting him. He might have 200 yards. He might have 40. You drafted him. Live with it. Would you start Darrell Williams or Jamar Chase? Chase. Yeah, Chase. And yes, so Uzama, no interest here.
Starting point is 00:37:40 Chiefs have allowed 57 or more yards to seven tight ends. Let's see. It's more than that. Whatever. Yuzama, start or sit? Sit. Sit. Okay.
Starting point is 00:37:50 Rams and Ravens. The stat of the game was about whenever Stafford has a big game, so do two wide receivers pretty much every time. So, Heath, I do think, unless the rankings have changed, I do think you're the low guy on Beckham and mostly Beckham. Everybody's kind of like number three receiver for Van Jefferson. But for example, Jamie has Beckham 17th. You have him 27th in non-PPR.
Starting point is 00:38:14 And in full PPR, Jamie has Beckham 17th, and you have him 28th. So a little bit lower on him. You have him more as a number three. Yeah, I don't really like that but i think it's just like you look at what he's done since he got to the rams and if he scores a touchdown he's good but the yardage totals even if you forget that first game where he had 18 yards and you probably should the last four weeks 37 7 77 28 like he's gotta score a touchdown why does Heath go
Starting point is 00:38:46 in reverse order when he gives the game locks it just really throws me off you go from most recent to least recent well I think the most recent is like you say it is last four games then you go week 16 15 14 13 that's just nope everybody's so
Starting point is 00:39:03 confused now I don't think they care what order the games came in because the sequencing is not that important Week 16, 15, 14, 13. That's just... Nope, everybody's so confused now. I don't think they care what order the games came in because the sequencing is not that important. You're right. It's 37 or fewer yards in three of his last four games. It's pretty hard to overlook that, I suppose. But Jamie, you're playing the matchups. I'm playing the matchups,
Starting point is 00:39:19 and I want to see something here just based on what their run game has done. So they couldn't run against the Packers and Beckham in that game had 10 targets 5 for 81 and a touchdown they couldn't run to the same level against the Cardinals in week 14 and Beckham had seven targets six catches 77 yards and a touchdown every other game Sonny Michelle has had big games against the Jaguars, against the Seahawks, and against the Vikings.
Starting point is 00:39:47 If Sonny Michel does not have a huge game, which I don't know if he's going to have a huge game against Baltimore, the run defense has certainly been the most consistent thing of that defense by far, then probably going to see more pass attempts for Stafford
Starting point is 00:39:58 and more production for Beckham. Yeah, I mean, they didn't run that poorly against the Cardinals. It wasn't great, but 20 carries for 79 yards for Michel. And then that brings me to my Sony Michel question. Van Jefferson, by the way, number three wide receiver. But this is obviously a great run defense here.
Starting point is 00:40:16 So you, well, Jamie, you're ranking Michel pretty aggressively and Beckham, right? So you know what i mean well when i say that they and you're right didn't run well you tell me any running back in an offense like this is getting north of 18 carries i'm going to rank him probably somewhere around 15 so sony michelle didn't score in those games well the packers game he wasn't the main guy that was still there honey so it's really just looking at what he did against the Cardinals and so like you said not a bad game but he wasn't involved in a passing game at all that week and so you know you got to hope that he has some level of production there plus now look we were this is the first game we're gonna
Starting point is 00:40:58 see uh do they trust the second guy at all do they trust trust Jake Funk? Do they trust Cam Akers? I have no idea. Well, yeah, Henderson only had one carry. I know he left with an injury, but still, it was one carry. I'm guessing Michelle probably had 13 or 14 at the time, just a guess, but he had a lot of work. So he's taken over. It is a really tough matchup.
Starting point is 00:41:20 We know the Ravens have a great run defense. That's why we were a little hesitant with A.J. Dillon a couple weeks ago. I don't remember who they played last week for some reason. Well, the Bengals. Joe Mixon was great, but he did a lot of work in the passing game. Of course. It was the Bengals. It's not like he ran all over them. Michelle or
Starting point is 00:41:37 David Montgomery? Montgomery. David Montgomery is my number three running back this week. Okay. So Michelle or Daryl Williams. Williams in PPR. Michelle.
Starting point is 00:41:52 I'll go Sony. Ronald Jones or Sony Michelle. Okay. By the way, Darius Leonard off the COVID list. So is Zach Paschal and safety. Curry. Curry Willis for the welcome.
Starting point is 00:42:05 Welcome. Bear. Now Willis for the Rams. Welcome back. Welcome back. Now, we talked about the Rams wide receivers. Tyler Higbee is in the discussion here. He's outside the top 12, but just barely. He'll be in my top 12 when I adjust my rankings. Yeah, I think I've got him
Starting point is 00:42:21 11th. Oh, yeah. Sorry. In PPR, you do. I think you have him 13th in non-PPR. Baltimore's struggles. They've given up the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends. So who are you starting him over? Gusecki. Hunter Henry. Tell me about the Baltimore quarterbacks and your interest level, Heath? Josh Johnson or Tyler Huntley
Starting point is 00:42:46 would be a high-end number two quarterback. Second favorite streamer behind Trey Lance. Lamar Jackson would be a low-end number one quarterback. The guys that I think that I currently have Johnson or Huntley behind that I would rank Lamar over are Cousins and Wilson and probably Taysom Hill and Trey Lance. Okay.
Starting point is 00:43:14 And Jamie, you'd probably be lower, you said, on Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson will be a top 15 quarterback. I would start Taysom Hill over him. I would start Lamar over Trey Lance. If I said that incorrectly before, that's the way I would do it now. No, I don't think you did. Baltimore running backs? Nope.
Starting point is 00:43:32 Avoid? Yes, avoid. I mean, I don't know what happened to Devontae Freeman the last two weeks. It just doesn't make any sense that Latavius Murray has done more. Not so much last week, but the week before. You got lucky if you started Freeman last week because he found the end zone. But back-to-back weeks with six carries, maybe it's just Lamar Jackson. He just needs Jackson back.
Starting point is 00:43:53 I want to avoid Devontae Freeman, but I would still probably start him over Deontay Foreman, Dario Gumbawale, or Rex Burkhead. Why? Burkhead, yes. But he's got, he's got what? Eight touches or something in two straight games? And this run defense, the Rams run defense, the way it's playing.
Starting point is 00:44:13 I mean, there's some candidates here. Dolphins, Ravens, Rams. This might, Niners, might be the best run defense in football right now. Even the Saints. I mean, the Rams might be, they're playing that well. Their last seven games?
Starting point is 00:44:25 Eight games. 3.2 yards per carry to running backs. That's insane. So, yeah, I don't know. Let's go with Darre. Come on, Heath. Darre over Friedman. Yeah, I don't want to.
Starting point is 00:44:38 Yeah, I would start. As bad as a Goombo Wallet could potentially be, I would start him over Devontae Freeman. All right, Marquise Brown. So, I know Heath likes him over Beckham. I know Jamie likes Beckham over Marquise Brown. Jamie, would you start Van Jefferson over Marquise Brown? In non-PPR, yes.
Starting point is 00:44:53 In PPR, no. I mean, you always have the potential of the two games that we've seen for Marquise Brown with an eight-catch game and a 10-catch game. Jefferson obviously has to score. So there's more boomer bust potential for him. It's just ridiculous what's going on with Marquise Brown and just how they're using him.
Starting point is 00:45:10 I think a lot of that, because I was reading something today about Mark Andrews about how he's actually been better on short throws with the backup quarterbacks than he was with Lamar Jackson. But they just aren't throwing the ball down the field at all with these backup quarterbacks. And so everything Marquise Brown sees is within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
Starting point is 00:45:31 I don't think that's just with the backups. This has been going on for weeks now. This was with Lamar Jackson. Well, it's been almost a month since Lamar Jackson played, right? No, not quite. Two Tyler Huntley starts and one Josh Johnson? Technically, I think it was one Tyler Huntley start in one game where he came in after like 10 passes.
Starting point is 00:45:50 The Browns. Okay. But yes. The second Browns game. Essentially, yes. So it was the three games before that as well. It was the last six games. His ADOT has been mostly very, very low.
Starting point is 00:46:00 I think it might be, you know, I don't know this to be factually correct, but if teams were doing what the Dolphins have been doing to whatever extent. Because it started with the Dolphins game. Yeah. You can't protect Lamar or anybody who's playing quarterback?
Starting point is 00:46:16 Well, the good news for Marquise Brown, his last six games is when he's been struggling. It's no more than 55 yards, no touchdowns. He has seven red zone targets. He has two of them inside the five-yard line. He hasn't caught a touchdown. Maybe that's a little bit unlucky.
Starting point is 00:46:31 Well, yes, and that's the thing. The yardage thing worries me a little bit, and the ADOT thing worries me. The touchdown thing, I really don't care that he hasn't scored in the last seven weeks because if we'd done that same analysis after week seven, we'd have said he's going to score every week because he scored seven touchdowns in seven games.
Starting point is 00:46:47 And then he didn't score anymore. Isn't he more likely to score if he's farther down? I think probably. But if he's getting all those targets in the red zone, is he less likely to score this week than he was week nine? Week nine? Because he had seven touchdowns in his first seven games and then he never scored again.
Starting point is 00:47:06 Well, I'm saying... He didn't score in Week 9 either. Right. That's what I'm saying. Well, if he's running, you know, seven-yard routes, I said he has five red zone...
Starting point is 00:47:14 He has seven red zone targets in his last six games. Five of them were originated from the 17 or the 20-yard line. So he's not going to score on those unless he's breaking tackles,
Starting point is 00:47:23 right? You know? So it's just... I don't know. It's harder to score when you unless he's breaking tackles, right? You know, so it's just I don't know. It's harder to score when you're just Jarvis Landry, basically. That's true. Yeah, alright. So I'll give you some names. Marquise Brown or
Starting point is 00:47:35 KJ Osborne. Osborne. That's really close for me, but I'll go Brown. Ayuk. Brown. Brown. All right.
Starting point is 00:47:51 I do not like Ayuk at all. Start Mark Andrews. And the Rams DST is not a slam dunk start, but they're top 10. All right. Las Vegas at the Colts. And by the way, this is interesting,
Starting point is 00:48:05 but the DST has actually been, or the Ravens have been much better against DSTs or giving up fewer points without Lamar Jackson. He's taking a lot of sacks. The other guys haven't the last two weeks, but could just be fluky. Vegas at the Colts. Stat of the game.
Starting point is 00:48:22 Since allowing 38 fantasy points to Jets quarterbacks in week nine, the Colts have allowed of the game. Since allowing 38 fantasy points to Jets quarterbacks in week nine, the Colts have allowed only six touchdown passes to seven interceptions in their last six games. And that is facing some duds, but also Josh Allen,
Starting point is 00:48:38 Tom Brady, Kyler Murray. Their pass defense used to be a real liability, and it just is not anymore. So, Jamie, break down the Raiders real quick. Vegas at the Colts. You're starting Josh Jacobs. You're starting Hunter Renfro. Again, based on what they have done and hopefully what they will continue to do based on their upside.
Starting point is 00:49:04 Zay Jones is in the number three receiver conversation. He's seen seven or more targets in three straight games. He has 11 and 12 PPR points, or based on how you like to do it, 12 and 11 PPR points in his last two games. So hopefully that still continues. He has not scored a touchdown since week one, so take that into account with Zay Jones. But there is some potential there if you need a number three receiver in PPR.
Starting point is 00:49:31 I would not start him in non-PPR. And I wouldn't, like assuming Waller doesn't play, I think Foster Moreau's a fine low, low, low end starting number one wide tight end. Yes, he has turned things around the last two weeks. He has, and as the Colts have turned their pass defense around, they've done it against wide receivers, and they have been bad against tight ends.
Starting point is 00:49:54 They've allowed 67 yards or a touchdown to a tight end in seven of their last eight games. So that's kind of the trends that we're seeing now. It's a pretty staggering number. Seven tight ends have scored at least 11 PPR points in the last eight games. Yeah, Moreau or Higby? Moreau.
Starting point is 00:50:17 Moreau. Marquise Brown or Hunter Renfro? Renfro. Jamar Chase or Hunter Renfro? Chase. Chase in non-Renfro and PPR. In a half PPR league, do you consider Josh Jacobs to be a must start?
Starting point is 00:50:34 Yes. Also in non-PPR league. In non-PPR, okay. Then over to the Colts. Start or sit Carson Wentz if he plays? You know what? It's true to that. It's Pittman. Right? It's Pittman.
Starting point is 00:50:51 Because you're starting Taylor. You don't want to start Wentz. Pittman. Start or sit? Heath? Start him as long as Wentz is back. Yeah, I'd start him. Pretty good game at Arizona. It would not be surprising if he's the best receiver in this game. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:51:10 Six straight games without a touchdown. I think the concerns with him is always just it's Jonathan Taylor going to have 25 or more carries, and that leaves maybe six targets for him. Something like that. Look at his last six games. He has three games with four or five targets.
Starting point is 00:51:27 I'm starting Renfro over him, but again, it wouldn't shock me if Pittman is better. There's also this thing where the Raiders allow the third fewest points to wide receivers. I'm having trouble keeping track of who's in and who's out in their secondary. I know they lost starting safety a couple weeks ago.
Starting point is 00:51:44 Jonathan Abrams is definitely out. Yeah, they put someone on the COVID list. One of their starting cornerbacks. Hobbs, I think, is back. Their slot corner. But I can't. It's tough to keep track of it all. And you guys did not rank Mo'Ally Cox, did you?
Starting point is 00:52:02 I think he's 25th for me. Yeah, me too. Okay. It is a good matchup and he's fairly efficient if you heard jacob gibbs talk about him actually on the monday show he's actually very efficient tight end but you know it is kind of a dart throw colts dst or rams ds would you take a more efficient molly cox or a less efficient josh jacobs a less efficient Josh Jacobs? A less efficient Josh Jacobs. This is actually a pretty good run defense, too. It's not an easy matchup. The Colts are great. Again, now that they're healthy, too.
Starting point is 00:52:33 Yeah. Sorry, Colts DST or Rams DST? Colts. Colts. We didn't take our commercial break yet, did we? No. Let's do that. I think we have five games left.
Starting point is 00:52:44 We'll be right back. We'll talk Denver and the Chargers after this quick break on Fantasy Football today. means you get six seconds back. Just enough time to visit Shopify.com slash POS20. Now that's an efficient ad. Eligibility requirements apply. See Shopify.com slash POS20 for details. Denver and the Chargers. The Denver defense is ridiculous.
Starting point is 00:53:25 Are they the best defense in football? Tied is a 17-way tie, best I've heard. Their last nine games, only two teams have scored more than 17 points. That was the Eagles who scored 30 and the Chiefs who scored 22. So they're tied with the Chiefs. They're tied with the Dolphins. They're tied with the Patriots and the Bills, of course, the Rams.
Starting point is 00:53:52 Who else am I missing? The Colts. No, maybe the Dolphins. The Bucs. I don't know about the Bucs. Cowboys. Cowboys for sure. Yeah, they're the number one defense in in uh fantasy where are they in your rankings now heath uh i have no idea you tell me 15th i think 15th
Starting point is 00:54:14 that is what if what if the number one quarterback in fantasy had a tough matchup would you rank him 15th no because i think quarterback scoring has a lot more to do with the quarterback. It's true. Okay. Defense scoring has a lot to do with the quarterback, too. Well, that's his point. Yeah, that's because they're facing Kyler. But defense scoring doesn't
Starting point is 00:54:37 have anything to do with the defense. Well, no, I'm not saying it doesn't have anything to do with, but, and also, like, you know, like, they've scored like 13 defensive touchdowns yeah i don't think that's very predictive i think the argument against the cowboys dst is is the patriots dst the last two weeks they were they may have been number one and then they come back and face the bills and what else colts colts and they weren't good okay anyway let's go to this game. How do you feel about
Starting point is 00:55:06 Justin Herbert in this game? He did score 23 points the first time he faced them, but it was ugly. I remember saying it on the Sunday night show. I was like, whew, man, he got lucky. How do you feel about Herbert this week, Jamie? I'm still starting
Starting point is 00:55:22 him, but I don't love it. Burrow or Herbert? Burrow. I've got Herbert higher. I don't feel great about either side of that, but I'm going to go with Herbert. Jalen Hurts or Herbert?
Starting point is 00:55:42 Oh, Hurts. Herbert. Herbert. Okay. So Eckler and Keenan Allen are must-starts? Yes. Yep. Okay, yeah. The Broncos against wide receivers, they're fantastic,
Starting point is 00:55:57 but actually not so great against slot receivers. So it's not a terrible matchup for him. And I've only asked that. I've seen some questions. Oh, do I start Keenan Allen or Antonio Brown? You know, people are loaded. Some fantasy managers are loaded at wide receiver and might be seeing the matchup and being a little hesitant.
Starting point is 00:56:15 But yeah, we like Keenan Allen quite a bit. Other than the Broncos running backs, we'll finish with that. We should talk about it a little bit more. But how about Noah Fant? Nope. Well, they gave up the most fantasy points. So did the Raiders. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:56:34 You know, okay, so I think you're going into this game saying Drew Locke is a big downgrade, right? Do you feel that way? Yes. Because I felt that way too, but heath how do you feel about that i just yes i think drew lock is a downgrade and they did not have any room like it's not like they were good before drew lock any type of downgrade from not startable is more not startable well just looking at the offense as a whole, my feelings going into this week were,
Starting point is 00:57:05 this is a downgrade. He was horrible. The offense was a joke last week. But if you just look at 2020 versus 2021, they're basically the same team offensively. Yards per game, points per game. And that was with Locke playing 13 games last year and Bridgewater starting almost all of this year.
Starting point is 00:57:23 So, I mean, last week, yeah, it was really bad, but they weren't any worse last year than they are this year. In fact, they were slightly better. Is that better at all? Well, they've added Cortland Sutton and Javante Williams this year.
Starting point is 00:57:39 Yeah, and they haven't outscored last year. They had a worse offense last year, and they scored more points, barely last year. They had a worse offense last year, and they scored more points, barely, per game. You know what I mean? I don't know that he's as much of a downgrade. Are you saying Pat Shermer's a bad coordinator? I'm saying I don't know that he's as much of a downgrade
Starting point is 00:57:55 as it appeared last week. I mean, it's a downgrade. Yeah. Okay. They did not have a game this season with fewer than 220 offensive yards until they played the Raiders and put up 158. I think it's also a downgrade
Starting point is 00:58:15 in terms of catch potential for Javante Williams. That's just not really what Drew Locke does. Yes. Javante Williams is not as good with Drew Locke, most likely, as he is with Teddy Bridgewater. This run defense is better with Justin Jones. It makes you want to do things. Oh, man.
Starting point is 00:58:36 You were supposed to leave at 9.30, by the way, JB. Can we do that? Get out of here. Yeah, I'm leaving. I was waiting until this game was done. All right, we'll do this. This game is pretty much done. In any event
Starting point is 00:58:45 gotta go bye we'll just finish here this is a fairly easy game but Javante we'll do some Javante Williams ors Javante Williams or DK Metcalf Javante Javante Williams or
Starting point is 00:59:02 Tyler Lockett I think I'd go Lockett Jiovante williams or saquon barkley this is tough this was the one that we could have had the uh the argument over definitely giovante and non-ppr but i will go barkley and full ppr all right so he's a low-end starter and i think that's it oh do you know who the only tight end to catch a touchdown against the Broncos is? I do not. It's Jared Cook, of course.
Starting point is 00:59:34 Hmm. I think he had 25 yards or something. Been doing things that don't make any sense since 2015. Start or sit? Sit. Okay. Cook or Fant? Sit. Okay. Cook or fant? Cook.
Starting point is 00:59:49 All right. Sit the DSTs. Cleveland is at Pittsburgh. Here's your kind of weak stat of the game. In the last five games, there was only two wide receivers against the Browns. I had to see which team this was for.
Starting point is 01:00:08 Only two wide receivers facing the Browns in the last five games had more than 67 yards. That was Rashad Bateman and Devontae Adams. Only three receivers in the last five games caught a touchdown. That was Edwards, Adams, and Lazard. They have faced Renfro, Amandra St. Brown, Adams, and Baltimore twice. I don't knowfro, Amandra St. Brown, Adams,
Starting point is 01:00:26 and Baltimore twice. I don't know. You're starting Deontay Johnson. Start us at Chase Claypool. No. All right. What's a tough call in this game, Cleveland and Pittsburgh?
Starting point is 01:00:37 Not much. Like I said, I think you have to start Deontay. You have to start Najee. You have to start Chubb. I don't want to start Hunt, really, but I do prefer Hunt over Claypool and Landry. I don't see a tough call in this game.
Starting point is 01:00:55 Is Najee Harris a tough call? Because he's been pretty up and down lately. There's just so much volume that it's really hard to say. Like I, I could see a situation where maybe you drafted Najee Harris, David Montgomery and chase Edmonds and James Connor doesn't come back and you sit Harris for those two.
Starting point is 01:01:14 Sure. Okay. Um, I would sit Harris for in, in non PPR for Ronald Jones, but not in full PPR But not in full PPR? Not in full PPR. All right.
Starting point is 01:01:29 Okay. Jarvis Landry or a number two Bills wide receiver? I don't know that I have. I'd go Beasley over Landry. Okay. Why am I doingley over Landry. Okay. Why am I doing Jarvis Landry stuff here? I don't know. He's wide receiver 44 for me, so I would like to not start
Starting point is 01:01:52 him. Okay. Chase Claypool or Van Jefferson? I have Chase Claypool behind Jarvis Landry, but I would start Van Jefferson over both of them. Oh, wow. Okay. So, Ben Roethlisberger... them. Oh, wow. Okay. So Ben Roethlisberger. Well, how about him?
Starting point is 01:02:08 How do you like Roethlisberger this week? I would prefer to start whoever starts for the Ravens, Derek Carr and Mac Jones. I feel like this is not a deep week at quarterback. This is though, like it's prime time, right? And apparently he's asking all of his old teammates to come to the game because it's his last game at home so if you want to buy into narratives that that could be a narrative although he may just go out in a very sad sad way also um yeah i don't want i don't know like i've got russell wilth, I think, and it might be 15th if Lamar's back.
Starting point is 01:02:47 So I think it is kind of a deep week at quarterback. Can I tell you a quick story about a narrative? It was 2007, November 10th, 2007, was the last game at the Orange Bowl, the storied Orange Bowl, home of the Miami Hurricanes and so many memorable college football moments and NFL moments, for that matter. Jets beating the Colts in the Super Bowl, Super Bowl III.
Starting point is 01:03:10 And man, we were fired up for that game. Sold out crowd, night game. There was like a laser light. I didn't go to the game. I was living in New York. Miami lost 48 to nothing in the last game of the Orange Bowl. So don't buy too much into narratives. That's always think of that.
Starting point is 01:03:27 Kind of set the tone for the program moving forward, right? A little bit. I mean, they're not as bad as you think they are. But yes, a little bit. They were already in pretty bad mode at that point. All right. Start Deontay Johnson and Pat Frymuth. Oh, Pat Frymuth.
Starting point is 01:03:41 What if he plays? He might play. Yeah. We don't have any of our Pat Frymuth analysts on the Pat Frymuth. What if he plays? He might play. Yeah. We don't have any of our Pat Frymuth analysts on the podcast right now. So I would start... I'd still start Foster Moreau
Starting point is 01:03:55 and Tyler Higby over him. What about Jared Cook and Noah Fant? I would start Frymuth over those guys. Okay. Okay. Yeah, he's got four...
Starting point is 01:04:03 three or four targets in his last four games. But you know what it is with Fyremuth. He needs a touchdown. Miami at Tennessee. Okay. So I think I can do it. I don't want to start the quarterbacks.
Starting point is 01:04:18 I don't want to start the running backs. I will start Waddle and A.J. Brown. And Gesicki's a low low end borderline number one. Do you like or love Waddle and AJ Brown this week? I like them a lot. They are, I think, both high end number two wide receivers for me, borderline number one wide receivers. I prefer AJ Brown and non PPR and half PPR. I prefer waddle and full PPR. Um, but they're both top 15 and PPR and top 20 and none. The Titans do give up the second most points to wide receivers. They have been better lately. And waddle is just, I don't even know if, if that
Starting point is 01:05:00 matters the way they use him, you know. They just want to give him the ball. They are very creative. You watched that Saints game, you saw him all over the field. Yeah, so A.J. Brown, you don't have him in the top 10, do you? No, I've got him 12th, no, 14th and 13th, I think, in the two formats. Okay, because you're definitely the low guy because jamie and dave have him top seven so what is your hesitation coming off that monster game yeah i don't think that it's necessarily hesitation to have a wide receiver ranked 14th or 13th i reject the premise of your question all right that's's fine. The reason he isn't ranked higher is just because the Titans' offense
Starting point is 01:05:46 has really not been very good. And that's concerning. We also don't know if Julio Jones or Nick Westbrook are going to play in this game. They were on the reserve COVID list. And the Dolphins have two good cornerbacks.
Starting point is 01:06:00 And they've held Stefan Diggs to a bad game. Diggs had 60 yards and 40 yards in two games. He did catch a touchdown in both games. Michael Pittman had 59 yards. Calvin Ridley, 26 yards. Brandon Cooks, 56 yards. Marquise Brown, 37 yards.
Starting point is 01:06:16 So this is a tougher matchup than what Waddle's looking at, it appears. And then for Gasicki, we've talked about a lot of tight ends, like Foster Moreau and who was the other one that you had? Everett. Would then for Gasicki, we've talked about a lot of tight ends like Foster Moreau and who was the other one that you had? Everett. Would you start Gasicki over them? I would. You would. Okay.
Starting point is 01:06:33 Gasicki or Pitts? Pitts. Gasicki's been kind of trash lately, hasn't he? He's not been particularly good, but he is a tight end. They're pretty solid. They give up the fourth fewest fantasy points a tight end. Yeah, they're pretty solid. They give up the fourth fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Starting point is 01:06:48 I guess we're out on Devontae Parker. What a weird, no targets last week. So weird. He did have a target. The play was erased by penalty. Yeah. I know that because I needed 10.1 points from him to advance in a league,
Starting point is 01:07:01 and I was grasping for any straw I could get. But yeah, you can't start a guy a week after he doesn't see a target yeah okay and then for Deontay Foreman I was troubled by the workload it just it just feels like if he's not doing well and he might struggle in this game they feel confident in McNichols and Hilliard and yeah he's not a top 24 running back he He's not somebody you should want to start. But I would still start him over Dario Gumbawale or Rex Burkhead. Which, I mean, maybe Jamie should answer this,
Starting point is 01:07:36 but which DST do you prefer? Yeah, I think Jamie should answer this. Jamie, which DST do you prefer? I'll tell you. I like the Dolphins better than the Titans. Okay. Yeah, I think Jamie should answer this. Jamie, which DST do you prefer? I'll tell you. Jamie has... I like the Dolphins better than the Titans. Okay. And so do Jamie and Dave.
Starting point is 01:07:51 I thought that worked out. These guys are all... All three analysts have both DSTs in the top 13. The Dolphins are top eight. After that game last week, it's tough to get away, but obviously it's a much different circumstance. Let's go to Atlanta at Buffalo.
Starting point is 01:08:09 Sit Matt Ryan, seven straight games with 15 or fewer points, only four touchdown passes in those seven games. We did have some good debates about this game yesterday on the Wednesday show. So it's Cordaro, Patterson, and Russell Gage. And who would you start in a flex, Patterson or Gage? Patterson and non-Gage and PPR. And what we talked about was the Bills have been bad
Starting point is 01:08:32 against the run in four straight games, but Patterson is coming off the last two games, 18 carries for 32 yards and a touchdown at San Francisco and home against Detroit. Yeah, I would still start Patterson over like Deontay Foreman and Darre and Burkhead, but he's outside.
Starting point is 01:08:50 What's that? Javante. Devante Freeman? Javante. No, no, I'd definitely start Javante. I'd start Michael Carter, Devin Singletary, Javante, all those guys, Tony Pollard,
Starting point is 01:09:01 all those guys over him. And what did we come to the conclusion on with Russell Gage? I mean, I think this is a setup where they could be losing and throwing a lot, which has been good for him lately, but it looks like a tough matchup. They allow the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. However, we don't really have
Starting point is 01:09:16 a long sample size of the bills against good teams without Tredavious White. The one good offense they face, the Bucs threw all over them. I would start Gage over Darnell Mooney and KJ Osborne and Odell Beckham in PPR. I would start Marquise Brown and Brandon Cooks and Tyler Lockett over Gage. So he's in that borderline number two,
Starting point is 01:09:38 high end number three range. All right, Kyle Pitts. Three straight games with 61 or more yards. Still only one touchdown. He's coming off a 100-yard game, but that was against a cake matchup. This is different. The Bills allow the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Starting point is 01:09:56 And all right, here we go. I'm going to give you this list. Tell me if this matters to you. Kyle Pitts has five to seven targets in nine straight games. So I'm going to give him five to seven targets. Here are the tight ends who have five to seven targets in nine straight games. So I'm going to give them five to seven targets. Here are the tight ends who have five to seven targets against the Bills. Mike Kosicki, three catches for 41 yards. Dan Arnold, four catches for 60 yards.
Starting point is 01:10:15 Jack Doyle, three for 30. Hunter Henry, one for nine. So that is four tight ends who have had five to seven targets against the Bills. Dan Arnold had 60 yards. The other three had 41 or fewer. None of them scored. Does that matter? I think so.
Starting point is 01:10:29 It was Arnold, Gasicki, Doyle, and Hunter Henry. So he's better than all those guys. Um, I, I think that's like that six to 10 range is probably what your expectation
Starting point is 01:10:43 should be for pits. If he doesn't score a touchdown. Hmm. Okay. So that's the starting tight end. Six to ten range is probably what your expectation should be for Pitts if he doesn't score a touchdown. Mm-hmm. Okay, so... That's a starting tight end. Dallas Goddard or Kyle Pitts? I would go Goddard over Pitts. Let me see who you have Pitts ahead of.
Starting point is 01:10:56 Ertz, Kosicki, Knox. Ooh, Ertz is interesting. He's getting a ton of targets lately since the Hopkins injury. He has had a lot of targets in the last couple of games. I'm not... Again, it's a couple of games, and maybe I should weight that a little bit more heavily, but...
Starting point is 01:11:15 I don't. He needs a lot of targets to score a lot of points because he's not going down the field very much. Yeah. Josh Allen is number one for everybody. Devin Singletary is interesting. I mean, I wanted to make the case for him. We had a question on our Monday show with Jacob and Chris, who's a surprising league winner. And I was going to say Devin Singletary, but then I just look at the way he has gone about it lately, and it just doesn't seem dependable. It seems like he could easily have a 45 total yard game, you know? Yeah. You liked him more when he was getting 10 carries, but averaging five yards per carry, he's getting way too many carries in his yards per carries falling below four.
Starting point is 01:11:53 No, it's not that it's that, you know, the catches are up and down. Zach Moss played last week and got some work near the goal line. Whereas if it were just Brita in Singletary, I don't think Brita would, would be anywhere near the goal line unless it were third down, you know, so his chances of scoring with Moss playing are, are less than if Moss were out. Um, and the Falcons would be a beer crapping on their run defense. It's not that bad of a run defense. They're really bad against running backs in the passing game. I don't know. It's just, he's, well, You don't have him ranked like he's a slam dunk, so I think you agree with me. No, he's a number two running back.
Starting point is 01:12:28 I think I'm now the low guy on him, which is a weird feeling. But he was really good for two weeks, so that makes sense. Oh, please. No, I think... Yeah, go ahead. That's not a slam on anybody.
Starting point is 01:12:42 It's just like the last two weeks impact everybody else's rankings more than mine. And that's probably true. Okay, so Singletary or you said you start them over Barkley, right? I know I'd start Barkley and PPR, Singletary and none. Okay. Singletary or CD Lamb? Lamb.
Starting point is 01:13:05 Amari Cooper? Cooper and PPR, Singletary or CeeDee Lamb? Lamb. Amari Cooper? Cooper and PPR, Singletary and none. Michael Gallup? Singletary. Finally. Singletary or DK Metcalf? Singletary. Let's talk about Buffalo's wide receivers here.
Starting point is 01:13:21 Man, with everybody back, I really would prefer to only start digs because there's some uncertainty about how targets will be distributed there's uncertainty about how many passes josh allen will throw i've got beasley ranked the highest um but i he's not in my top 30 he's a low end number three and i I really have no idea between Gabriel Davis and Emmanuel Sanders who's even going to play the most snaps out wide.
Starting point is 01:13:52 Stefan Diggs, in his last six games, here is his 16-game pace. It's pretty alarming. 88 catches, 912 yards, but 13 touchdowns on 147 targets. That's his 16-game pace over his last six games.
Starting point is 01:14:08 He's averaging 10.4 yards per catch, 6.2 yards per target, and catching 60% of his targets. Those are very low rates for Stefan Diggs. I know we're starting him, but... That's over his last six? Yeah. It's a lot better over his last seven. Why would I care about that?
Starting point is 01:14:25 No, it's just, I'll just, uh, it's a get, hopefully maybe a get right game against, uh, against the Falcons who suck against wide receivers and Dawson Knox.
Starting point is 01:14:35 Uh, how do you feel about Knox compared to pits? Let's say, um, I, I've got pits higher right now, but they're in the same range. I like Knox.
Starting point is 01:14:47 I, I worry. It's kind of a similar situation though with what i said about the rest of the wide receivers everyone's healthy and presumably now and so i i there's a risk that he just has a real three or four target game yeah that happens quite a bit he's had had three to five targets in three of his last five games. Would you start Gasicki or Knox? Knox. Would you start Knox? Get those rankings up. Or Ertz?
Starting point is 01:15:17 I'm pretty much starting Knox over all of the guys that have not been starters, but I'm starting most of the guys who have been starters over Knox. All right, so then what about Ertz? Because he's been both. I'd start Ertz. Ertz, all right. And the Bills DST is top six. Start them.
Starting point is 01:15:31 Last game, Jacksonville at New England. Hmm. Well, you know, it could be, if he's the only guy getting touches or getting 90% of the touches, it could be a 17-touch game for Daria Gunbawale. I'm not quite sure why.
Starting point is 01:15:50 That ought to get him 50 to 70 yards. Well, this is a really vulnerable run defense. They just haven't been good. I just don't know how many times Jacksonville is going to run the ball in a game. They have an implied point total. I know you maybe think that I lean on this a little too much, but 13. I can't recall a team ever having a total that low. You said that last year.
Starting point is 01:16:17 I'm pretty sure it was the Kendall Hinton game. That makes sense. I think it was lower than 13. I would believe that. It's a rookie quarterback against Bill Belichick. And I just think that you don't want to have any part of this offense. There's only one guy ranked as a starter in the whole game. And that's Damian Harris.
Starting point is 01:16:40 And he's not a must start now that Stevenson's back. Yeah. So then let's talk a little more about Damian Harris, and he's not a must-start now that Stevenson's back. Yeah, so then let's talk a little more about Damian Harris here. So in the last three games, he's played with Stevenson. Now, one of them he did leave with an injury, but I believe he's had 10 to 11 carries. Yeah, 10, 11, and 10 carries. Stevenson had 12, 9, and 24 carries,
Starting point is 01:17:00 but the 24 was when Harris left with the injury. And I don't have the splits. I know Harris started the game. That was when Harris left with the injury. And I don't have the splits. I know Harris started the game. That was the Buffalo game with the crappy weather. I don't know what the splits were before the injury. But if you look at the previous two games, they had basically the same amount of, exactly the same amount of carries.
Starting point is 01:17:16 And it was 21 in two games for both of them. So, all right, give me your thought process here of what you expect from damian harris my thought is that maybe stevenson gets a little bit less than half of the work because of his absence and so i have harris projected for 14 carries 67 yards and a touchdown that's a mid-range number two running back in non-PR. That's a low end number two and full PPR. Um, I've got him ahead of Singletary and Cordero and Michael Carter. I've actually got him one spot ahead of Javante Williams and full PPR.
Starting point is 01:17:55 I might switch that, but he's a much easier guy to start when catches don't count. I think it would be, it would be almost cruel. Are they 15-point favorites? What's the spread now? Yes. It would be almost cruel if he did not score a touchdown in this game because Damian Harris has scored a touchdown in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,
Starting point is 01:18:17 8 of his last nine games. Yeah. And he's got a good chance. Let's face it. It should be a very good game script for him, and he scored three last week. All right, that pretty much does it. Jacoby Myers, Kendrick Bourne, nothing?
Starting point is 01:18:31 Oh, Hunter Henry. Myers over Bourne, both over any Jacksonville wide receiver. Myers is a decent number three in full PPR. How about Hunter Henry? Jacksonville has allowed one touchdown to a tight end since week five, and it was to George Kittle. I prefer Higby and Foster Moreau
Starting point is 01:18:51 as a low-end starting option, but I would start him over Jared Cook and who's the other guy you keep asking? Noah Fant. Noah Fant. Patriots DST is number one for everybody. We got eight more games to get to tomorrow, the NFC home games.
Starting point is 01:19:06 And then we're going to go win some championships. Enjoy your Thursday night of freedom. Do something fun. Watch something great. Watch Dexter so we can talk about it. Although I'm not all the way caught up, so don't spoil anything. For Heath and partially Jamie,
Starting point is 01:19:18 I am Adam. Have an awesome Thursday. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.

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