Fantasy Football Today - Start or Sit (AFC): How Much Will Game Script Matter? (12/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 17, 2020

With several potential blowouts on the table this week, how much are we considering game script (4:40)? Specifically are we concerned about Ryan Tannehill or Ben Roethlisberger if their teams grab big leads? Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins is the Start of the Week (8:25) and we'll tell you who we're avoiding this week (12:30). Is Chris Carson a sit? ... News and notes (17:04) and the Startometer (25:10) for JAC-BAL, KC-NO and NE-MIA. Any hesitation to start James Robinson? Are there any trustworthy Dolphins this week? ... Start or Sit for Seahawks-Washington (32:00), Steelers-Bengals (41:14), Texans-Colts (48:48), Bills-Broncos (55:55), Lions-Titans (1:01:30), Jaguars-Ravens (1:06:50), Chiefs-Saints (1:10:00), Patriots-Dolphins (1:15:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Subscribe to 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. All right, here we go. Starter set for Fantasy Week 15. It is your semifinals week. Adam Azer and Heath Cummings and Jamie Eisenberg talking fantasy football.

Are you guys feeling confident? Heath, are you feeling confident this week? Yeah. Yeah, I'm very confident. Yeah, that's a lot of conviction. Jamie, how about you? Very confident. Yeah, that's a lot of conviction. Jamie, how about you? Very confident. I was waiting.

I wasn't paying close attention because I thought I was out in one league that, for whatever reason, we play. It's a 12-team league, but only four teams make the playoffs. And so I lost last week and I figured, okay, I'm done because how the points and stuff were all broken down. I was done because uh how the points and stuff were were all broken down i

was in the top four of points and two points leaders and two best records get into the playoffs well i didn't take into account that if you're the points leader and best record then it goes down to the next time there you go so even though i lost i still was qual i still qualified as the uh second highest point scorer so uh snuck into another playoffs, and we'll see how that goes. But very confident, very confident. You've got to be confident. Good. I like it. And if you're not confident now,

we're going to help you set your lineups to make you a little bit more confident. And this episode is sponsored by Express. You want to look confident, feel confident, you've got to look good, right? Express is all new and all about you with a fresh assortment of casual, versatile, and super comfortable styles.

Find out more about Express later in the show. And it is cold as heck up here. It is snowy and gross, and I have my nice Express sweater on. And if I need to go outside, I've got even warmer clothes from Express that I will break out. So, yeah, I'll tell you more about that later in the show. Do you guys make any of your lineup decisions based on your opponent? Because we do get a lot of questions that my opponent has Ryan Tannehill. Should I start Corey Davis or this other comparable wide receiver? Do you care about that Heath? I don't ever. I always

tell people don't care about that this week. I have a matchup that has almost made me care about it and I want you to tell me if I should oh okay it's a super flex league half ppr half point for first down I have I'm loaded at running back DeAndre Swift stop no this is not our league yes it is our league no I also have Cam Akers and Jonathan Taylor on that team oh wow, wow. Okay. It's very similar. Okay. I have Tyree Kill and Devontae Adams at wide receiver. I can flex my third favorite running back or Adam Thielen. I'm a big favorite. The guy I'm playing has Kirk Cousins.

Oh. And I thought, man, the only way he's going to beat me is if somebody goes off and has a massive game. But I'm probably going to sit Adam Th feeling and play three of the running backs. Yeah. I, I, I just always, I, my advice is always play the guy you think is going to score the most points. Um, so that's how I approach it, but that is pretty interesting. Uh, he, JB, what would you do? Thielen or one of those running backs? I think it was like Swift. I Taylor and acres my favorite. So it's, it's Swift or hunt or feel. I think it was like Swift. Taylor and Akers are my favorites. So it's Swift or Hunt or Thielen. I think I would just go Thielen there.

I would probably go Thielen myself in any PPR-related scoring. Swift. I'll tell you that I have Swift right now as a start and start set. If Ragnar's out after this throat revelation where he fractured his throat, which just sounds terrible, if he's out, then I'm going to pull Swift from the column. So I think it would be easy to go with Thielen. But I always play the players against my opponent

because I think it's a great strategy. It certainly works out well every time that that happens. Wait, wait. No. Okay, wait. I hear sarcasm. No, don't do that. Don't do that. Okay, so just play your best guys. Don't worry about your opponent, you're saying? Right, don't do that. Don't do that. Okay. So just play, play your best guys. Don't worry about your opponent. You're saying the best player. Now, I think if, if you're talking like three receiver leagues and your third receiver stinks and you want to maybe try and do something along those lines, I can get by that behind that. But like, I wouldn't necessarily go pick up like,

like you mentioned, um, Corey Davis, right? Yeah. That's a good player. It's, I think it's more along the lines of like, if you wanted to do this, like if you're playing Josh Allen and you're deciding between Cole Beasley and DJ Chark, you know, better week for DJ Chark. You know what I'm saying? Right, yeah, yeah, I got you.

Okay. Like that type of thing, I'm okay with. All right, all right. I feel like GameScript is really going to come into play this week. I don't know if this is a lot, but this feels like a lot. There are eight games in which teams are favored by six or more points. And there are three games with 12 or more point favorites. The Rams are by 17 point favorites against the Jets.

The Ravens against the Jaguars. Steelers at the Bengals. We got a lot of potential blowouts this week. And I want to know if you guys are, are nervous about that. And if there are any particular players, Tannehill and, um, and Roethlisberger come to my, obviously golf, but like Jamie, what is game script something that's on your mind right now? Did it make things difficult for you this week?

I mean, you know, the only thing you got to take into account with some of these scenarios when it comes to the scores is what is the defense going to do to impact those scores? Because the offense still has to get you to that deficit, right? Right. So, or the difference, not deficit. Yeah, I know, yeah. So, how are they going to get there? And so, like the Titans, you could see two touchdowns for Derrick Henry early, and then it's not a lot from Ryan Tannehill. Or you could see, you know, two touchdowns from a defensive touchdown and a touchdown from Cam Akers, and Derrick Goff's not doing very much. Those things could certainly unfold. The Steelers don't necessarily worry me too much because their offense has been so bad that if they're going to get to that point difference I think it's going to be because of

Roethlisberger especially with James Conner banged up today's going to be a big day for the Steelers backfield so if you can still make ad drops keep an eye on James Conner's practice report and if Benny Snell's available you should absolutely pick him up yeah the one guy my projections got a little wonky and i think he's in the rankings disputes and i've i've moved him up a little bit to close the gap but chris carson his like russia temp totals have not been very high since he's come back from injury and part of the problem was last week the seahawks had such a huge lead that it was car Hyde and DJ Dallas in the second half. Carson only had four touches after halftime. And I, for the most part, would just ignore that

and say, well, he just played because it was garbage time. But they're probably going to have a quarter and a half worth of garbage time again this week. You think so? Yeah, I mean, if Alex Smith plays, it's an East Coast trip. It's a one o'clock start. They've struggled a little bit in that spot.

That's a good defense, too. Yeah, it's a good defense. It is a good defense. Good run defense, too. We were going to talk about that in the rankings dispute. That game a couple weeks ago, I would have thought, oh, they're going to blow out Washington. I don't know.

How do you feel about that, Heath? I think they're going to win, but they may not blow them out. The other thing is there are two teams, and you mentioned them in the big spreads. I can't remember, and I pay attention to this a lot because it goes into the projections there are two teams with implied point totals below 14 and i cannot ever remember a week with two like if you get one team below 14 that's shocking and the jets and the bingles were both 13 and a half as of last night and jacksonville is not much higher right And remember last time you brought this up,

I don't know if it was the last time it happened, but that was the Kendall Hinton game. And it was the Broncos had an applied point total of like 10. And we got a pretty lousy game from Michael Thomas, you know, all things considered because Taysom Hill barely threw the Steelers. At least, you know,

they're going to throw, throw, throw, but you know, the, the Titans on the other hand, I don't know if I should count that. They're like six point favorites, but I could see them blowing out the lions. You know, throw. But, you know, the Titans, on the other hand, I don't know if I should count that. They're like six point favorites, but I could see them blowing

out the Lions. You know, we'll get into that game. I just I would imagine once Stafford's ruled out that line changes a little more. Right. That's that was basically my big concern. And Tannehill hasn't been great when they've had like massive wins, but they've only had either wins by seven or fewer or 19 or more. So they've never had like a 13 point win. So it's hard to, hard to really make a lot of judgment. Also they're back at home where he typically plays a little bit better too. Yep.

All right. So let's find out who we love this week. Jamie, who's the start of the week? JK Dobbins. I mean, you've seen this Jacksonville run defense absolutely fall apart. The last three games,

they've been bad all season. Dobbins has scored in three straight games. You don't have to catch passes to be successful against this Jacksonville run defense as most of the running backs have shown you, certainly Derek Henry last week. So he's not going for 215 and two, but I do think 70 and a touchdown is certainly realistic because he's done that in two of the three games. And he has five games on the season with at least 12 carries. He's scored 12 or more ppr points essentially 12 or more points because he's not doing very much in terms of his receptions but

uh 12 or more ppr points in four of those games i'd be very surprised at this point if he doesn't get 12 plus carries against jacksonville and then if you want to just have some fun uh gus edwards also is somebody you can start if you're stuck because uh hashtag jaguars right and you know it's rare we get a rankings dispute with the start of the week but jamie's got dobbins around 15th in the rankings and heath has him closer to 24 or so depending on the format so heath uh you are not quite as enthused it's like almost exactly what what I said about Chris Carson, except he also doesn't catch passes. He just hasn't had, he's not, you're not going to have a running back

that lives in the 12 to 14 carry range that projects as a top 15 running back. And that's not to say that against Jacksonville, I don't think that he could be. They have been such a weird defense in terms of their run defense. Most of the time, they're bad, and then occasionally they're awesome. The fact that you're going to see...

I don't think J.K. Dobbins is going to get more than a third of the Ravens' rush attempts because no running back really has over the past two years. So that puts him around 13 carries. I think 70 yards and a touchdowns very much in play though. Yeah. Okay. Who do you love Heath?

I was so busy answering about JK Dobbins that I keep no cam makers. He came in as a top four running back in my projections this week. So like 50 care, I think because that game was on a Thursday. And so we had a little extra time to kind of not think about it. 50 carries over the past two weeks, just completely shoving Daryl Henderson and Malcolm Brown out of the way on a team that has been very run heavy, almost regardless of game script. They have a couple of games where they threw 60 or 50 passes for the most part, a very run heavy offense. And now they're playing against a team that has an implied total of 13 and a half. He might have 30 carries in this game.

Jamie, who do you like better Dobbins or acres? Oh, acres. I mean, Dobbins is, uh, ranked. I think appropriately for how you feel he's going to play. If he doesn't expect him to have a monster game, I could certainly understand him being in the, in the low twenties. Um, I think he could have, you know, a hundred and a touchdown if, uh, if he doesn't expect him to have a monster game, I could certainly understand him being in the low twenties. I think he could have, you know,

a hundred and a touchdown if, if he gets his usual, you know, 14, 15 carries against this defense. Cause they're so bad. So it's just looking at it. It's also kind of contingent with Dobbins because,

you know, last week was the first time when everybody was healthy and they didn't play Mark Ingram. I can certainly see them going back to Mark Ingram this week, but you know, Dobbins is for the last three healthy games has, has typically been around 60% of the snaps. And like you said, that doesn't mean he's getting all the carries, but he's,

he's still doing enough that you can, I think, buy into it in this, in this matchup, but acres has certainly a higher ceiling. I mean, you know, you've seen it now for the last several games, the one, the one concern I do have with acres is and I, and I'm, I'm surprised he came out that high in your projection teeth is just the jets run defense has been good, you know, and that's the one thing to kind of, you know, look at it and say, as bad as things have been for the jets, if there's one kind of, Oh, that's not bad. It's been, it's been the run defense.

And so you're starting acres. There's no way you shouldn't be starting acres. But does he have that same 190 total yards and the potential to score like we saw last week? The one running back to score against him recently was Chris Carson because he caught a touchdown. All right. Players to avoid this week. Keith, who would you sit? Could I just say the Jets and the Bengals and the Jaguars not named James Robinson? Well, sure. Let me see if I can push back. Okay, I'll push back on that a little bit.

Let me just get the stat for you. It's about the Bengals wide receivers. Okay, so a wide receiver has scored 14 or more fantasy points in PPR against the Steelers in seven of the last eight games. And that includes guys like Willie Sneed, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Marquise Brown, and Cam Sims. I think it's good that you read that list of names off, because I would not be, like, if you told me that I can just start

the Bengals team wide receivers, and whoever scores the most fantasy points out of the four of them, I get those fantasy points. I would be okay with starting them but if i have to choose which bingles wide receiver it's most likely to be t higgins he's the one i have ranked the highest um but he's not in my top 36 so i would really like to not start any of them okay i won't i uh i have no beef with that i was just bringing it up uh but i was actually surprised you didn't have minchu in your top 25. He was really good.

He was on pace for like 4,200 yards, 30 touchdowns, something like that in the first seven games. The Ravens' defense, a little bit off the last couple weeks, but you're just not interested. They're also down a few offensive linemen, too. Yeah.

The Jaguars are down Linder. They're getting their left guard back, Norwell. Yeah. I mean, he hasn't played very well, too. Yeah. The Jaguars are down Linder. They're getting their left guard back, Norwell. Yeah. I mean, he hasn't played very well, though. He apparently is having his best season with the Jaguars, according to ESPN. But, I mean, look, their line stinks. Okay.

Jamie, who are we avoiding? You're not avoiding him, but I'm a little bit concerned and probably should have been for several weeks with Tyler Lockett. It's just, it's, it's such a frustrating experience with him and he has not been great on the East coast. He has not been great when he's not facing the Cardinals.

He only has four games this season with a touchdown. And so, you know, it's, it, it, he, he clearly has the chance to get you 12 PPR points like he did last week.

And that's kind of been the ceiling though. That's unfortunate. Unless he has these blow up games. And so the blow up games just haven't been there very often. And so good defense road trip. I think they just want to get their win and go home. They're facing one of the teams that we like to say are the teams you don't want to face, especially they go into the playoffs. This is not a team that you want to go against because of how physical and good their defense is played. So Tyler Lockett is a guy that's outside my top 24 for the first time.

And I think he's more of a number three receiver than a starting option. It's so conflicting the way you look at this matchup. Washington, they give up the third fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. And then try to follow along with this stat. It's pretty impressive. There have been 12 wide receivers in their last six

games that have had seven or more targets. Okay, that's a lot. They've had 39, 41, 26, 41, 21, 28. So it looks like seven of the 12 had 42 or fewer yards. That's really, really

good. But at the same time, somehow they've given up 85 yards or a touchdown to eight wide receivers in their last five games. So it's strange. It's like they're really good against wide receivers, but they're also really struggling. They haven't been quite as good, I think,

since Landon Collins went out. So I don't really even know how to evaluate the matchup. They haven't faced a lot of good passing offenses. I think that's what the big issue is for me evaluating Seattle. There's not so much for me, though, about the defense at this point. Yeah. Because he's got good matchups. He's had bad matchups.

He's had some favorable situations. He's just not producing consistently. I hope I'm wrong. I mean, I have to start him in several leagues. J.K. Dobbins over Tyler Lockett? In non-PPR, 100%. In PPR, no, because he's got more upside if things go right for him. That's just the type of scenario it is.

Okay. All right, then. More. We'll get to the games in a little bit. CBS Sports and Westinghouse are teaming up to give away 10 prize packs for the holidays, including a curved gaming monitor and a portable power station perfect for tailgates. Go to cbssports.com slash happyholidays to enter. Okay, we're going to put the link in the episode description as well,

but the contest ends on December 25th. So cbssports.com slash happyholidays. All right, that's pretty cool. Ten prize packs. Go to that URL. And join us today at 4 o'clock on Twitch. We're answering your starter set questions. Twitch.com slash FF today.

News and notes. Three players designated to return from IR. Not sure they'll play this week, but George Kittle, Drew Brees, John Brown. Who do you think has the best chance of returning this week? Kittle, Brees, Brown, Jamie? Brees. Okay.

Detroit center Frank Ragnow. Jamie was mentioning this. He played through a fractured throat. My goodness. Hopefully he can be out there at Tennessee. Didn't miss a snap. Yeah, apparently he just couldn't really speak very well, but everything else seemed fine.

That's just a weird thing. Why would they play him, though, if Stafford doesn't play? I don't get that. Well, it might be one of those injuries where it's like you can't do anything to get... It can't get any worse. You know? It might just sound really bad. But I saw some, like, tweets

where other players had had something similar and they, you know, couldn't breathe. Like... Right. He was fine. But if he gets hit in the throat, like, something goes wrong, it sounds terrible. It doesn't sound good. I definitely don't want to fracture my throat. Ronald Jones is on the reserve COVID list, guys.

So he still could play. He's got the pinky injuries on the reserve COVID list. But I asked you yesterday. I mean. Is he not a. And I don't know this for sure. Close contact. He's a close contact.

I thought those were five days. It is. So. I have those were five days. It is. So I'm on. They have to have all the negative tests between now and Sunday. He went on the list Wednesday, right? Yes, he could still play. Thursday. Okay.

I don't understand. That's only four days. Maybe he went on before that because I was pretty sure he could still play. From what I saw, him and Marquise Brown have both been considered close contacts and placed on the reserve COVID-19 list. So every report I saw said they could still play on Sunday if they have whatever X amount of negative tests. I could be wrong, but that's what I thought.

That's how I saw it too, yeah. Okay. Maybe they just went on a different day. It could be they were deemed close contacts on Tuesday, placed on the list on Wednesday. I mean, that could be the procedural move. Sure, right. It could be they were deemed close contacts on Tuesday, placed on the list on Wednesday. I mean, that could be the procedural move. Sure, sure. Yeah, so Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin,

they're both on the reserve COVID list. Is the availability of Brown and Boykin going to affect your rankings of Lamar Jackson this week? If he has none of them, then I would probably drop him down to low-end starting quarterback, but I'm probably still starting him. I mean, it's Jacksonville.

He's going to run on them. Yes, I think Heath is right. I won't drop him very... Like end starting quarterback, but I'm probably still starting him. I mean, it's Jacksonville. He's going to run on them. Yes, I think Heath is right. I won't drop him very, like he's third for me. I'll probably drop him to five, six. Okay. Yeah, this is a good one. A good game against Jacksonville where you don't have to go like, oh man, is the quarterback going to throw enough?

It doesn't quite matter as much. Let's talk about the Dolphins real quick. It doesn't look like a sick. Let's talk about the Dolphins real quick. It doesn't look like a sick. He's going to play, but Parker and Jakeem Grant practice on a limited basis. So that's good. Matt breed is off reserve COVID and Savan Ahmed was limited. Heath who's trustworthy on the Dolphins this week against the Patriots. At this point right now,

I don't see anyone who is trustworthy. I think founders and the and the dolphins DST. Yeah. I think that like the, if we get Devante Parker back and no Gaseki or Jakeem grant, then I think you could, um, really,

I, I feel pretty good still about Lynn Bowden because Parker would take Gilmore and they're going, I think there would still be possibly eight plus targets available for Bowden. All right. So that's Bowden. Well, for him then.

Raheem Mostert, mispractice. But they're still optimistic. I like that one. Thank you. They're still optimistic about Mostert playing. We don't know yet. So I don't think you can start Jeff Wilson over a Thursday night guy. Although we're going to talk about Thursday night games shortly

because there are some game time decisions. Damian Harris not on the injury report. Daniel Jones may not play. You're not going to start him, but it would really affect Evan Ingram. He probably shouldn't play. Yeah, he probably shouldn't play. Yeah, he probably shouldn't. And Alex Smith is questionable,

but there's optimism there. Joe Mixon, unlikely to play Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both game time decisions. And Eckler is going to play, but all right. How does this Jamie, how would it change things? If you,

you know, I guess talk about the injury situation with the chargers wide receivers. And, um, if, if Mike, if Keenan Allen doesn't play, I'm sure you're going to sit Herbert, but if Mike Williams doesn't play and Allen does,

what about Herbert at that point? I wouldn't change my ranking of Herbert. If Mike Williams is out, you've seen the other guys. There's been several of them throughout the course of the season, step up in place of Mike Williams when he's either been banged up or missed time. I,

if Keenan Allen is out, yes, you can't play Justin Herbert. So that's a huge injury you have to keep an eye on. I'm going to guess he plays, but with them having nothing to play for, you never know how that goes with certain guys. So the Raiders are really banged up defensively as well. They're down four guys. So I would love it for Justin Herbert if he does have Keenan Allen out there, But if he doesn't, clearly, then you can't start him in redraft league. Yeah. And if you're in a deep league and those wide receivers are out, Tyron Johnson had a good game last week, six catches,

55 yards and a touchdown. And he changed his style. His ADOT was way down. He had typically just been a deep guy, but it was still kind of high. I think it was around 13 or something like that, but it wasn't like 20. Like Jalen Guyton? Yeah, yeah. But even Johnson's like 53-yard touchdown catch at Tampa Bay,

54-yard catch against the Jets, 50-yard catch against the Raiders, long one at Buffalo, but he was a little bit more versatile, I guess, last week. All right, what else we got? Noah Phan expected to play. Phillip Lindsey and Melvin Gordon were both limited.

Antonio Gibson mispracticed. We're not expecting him. Kyle Rudolph mispracticed. DJ Moore expected to play. Julio Jones questionable. You guys aren't ranking Julio, are you? No. Chase Edmonds mispracticed with an ankle injury.

And I said earlier that ESPN said that Andrew Norwell was having his best season. I want to clarify his best season with Jacksonville. He hasn't. I don't know if people that cover the team necessarily agree with that, but. Well, Mike, Mike Duraco said it. He said this has been Norwell's. That's their beat writer for ESPN. I guess I'm just listening to Pete too much.

OK, Norwell's best season in Jacksonville. Getting him back will be a boost to the run game and running back James Robinson. Pittsburgh offensive lines beat up. Tennessee's beat up a little bit. Kansas City's tackles mispractice. Chargers, Brian Bulaga's not playing tonight. Their right tackle, Brian Bulaga, one of their tackles.

And... Trey Turner's a guard, right? Yeah. Yeah, Turner's a guard. I think Bulaga's playing right tackle. And Brandon Schell, right tackle for the Seahawks. He may not guard. I think Balaga is playing right tackle and Brandon Shell right tackle for the Seahawks. He may not play and I'll leave it at that.

You got an interesting tweet from Todd Hamilton who said that five years ago was the stain on Dave's shirt. I vaguely remember that. Dave had a lot of stains on. He was a very messy eater.

Always had stains. Yeah, but there was one that looked like a country, I think. Yeah, what was it? Did he spill coffee on himself? I don't think he was a coffee guy. No, I don't think so either. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know, but his tweet said,

it's a five-year anniversary of one of the top five moments in show history. Can we please relive the stain on Dave's shirt moment? Oh, gosh. I could text him and find out what the... Schrager, see if you can figure out what the stain was on Dave's shirt. But yeah, Dave, you send stains all the time. Jason Garrett has tested positive for COVID-19.

So the Giants will be without their offensive coordinator. Interesting. That's okay. Heath, how long have you been here at CBS? How many years? This is season six. Oh. You don't remember the stain?

No, I don't think I was on that show. Or on that shirt. I found it. It was Cuba. All right. Well, happy anniversary to. It was Cuba. All right. Well, happy anniversary to David to Cuba. All right. Let's do the start-o-meter.

What'd you say? I wonder if he still has the shirt. What did he spill, Schrager? Find out. What did he spill? All right. The start-o-meter today, basically it has morphed into the confidence-o-meter.

Who are you confident starting? Let's go to the Jacksonville-Baltimore game. These are the last three games we're going too-meter. Who are you confident starting? Let's go to the Jacksonville-Baltimore game. These are the last three games we're going to preview. Heath, who are you confident starting? Do you know who's calling plays for the Giants? Daniel Jones? Freddie Kitchens. Oh, Freddie Kitchens.

Yes. I'm so glad we picked up the Browns DST in our league, Heath. Oh, boy. Man. Okay, boy. Man. Okay, so, yeah. Jacksonville, Baltimore. Heath, who are you confident starting? Revenge game for Freddy Kitchens.

That's such a good one. I'm sorry. I can't. We're going to have to make... James Robinson. Yeah, Baltimore, too. J.K. Dobbins. And, Baltimore too. J.K. Dobbins. And Lamar Jackson.

And Mark Andrews. Yeah, Lamar Jackson, is he right now top five? He is currently top five. And I think he's currently top three or four for all of us. And he would not fall any further than the ninth for me if he was without all of his wide receivers besides willie sneed and devin divernay and if if willie sneed and divernay were the only wide receivers then i would probably rank sneed as a number three okay and right now who are the quarterbacks ahead of lavar jackson's rogers mahomes anyone else

i have josh allen i think i'm the only one but i have j quarterbacks ahead of Lamar Jackson? Rodgers, Mahomes, anyone else? I have Josh Allen. I think I'm the only one, but I have Josh Allen ahead of him as well. Okay. Jamie, Kansas City and New Orleans. You know, I figure most people are going to start the main guys. Who are you confident starting in this game? I'd start Taysom Hill if he's the starter.

I don't know if he qualifies as the main guys. He's probably the biggest. He and Jared Cook are the question. I was going to say, I think Cook is in the low-end starting conversation. He's got nine targets the last two weeks. He scored in two of those games. The Chiefs have been absolutely miserable against tight ends basically since week seven or eight.

In a game where they're probably chasing points and throwing, I think Jared Cook has a chance if your tight end situation is somewhat shaky. I would start him over Hayden Hurst, for example. I'd start him over Noah Fant. I would start him over... I'm trying to think of somebody else that's in that. Would you start him over Dallas Goddard?

I would start him over Dallas Goddard in non-PPR, but not in PPR. What about Evan Ingram? I would start him over Evan Ingram without Daniel Jung. Heath, you know, I know you're not quite as affected by matchups unless it's one of the real outliers, but Kansas City, they've given up 57 yards or a touchdown to five tight ends in their last four games. Good tight ends for the most part.

Waller, Witten caught a touchdown. Gronk, Fant, Kosicki. So, Cook, he's got a touchdown in two straight games. Are you feeling any momentum? I think you have him pretty low in the rankings. Yeah, I just, and I could fudge it

and move him up to like 18th maybe. But this is just the kind, and I think people have probably listened enough know this. Like Jared Cook scores once every six targets and no one else in football has ever done that and i'm just not going to buy it he's got one game or two games this season with more than three catches and he has not been over 37 yards since week five right um that's i just

don't i don't want to do that. Taysom Hill I was nervous about, but I got a little bit more comfortable after previewing the game because the Chiefs are getting torched by quarterbacks lately. Their defense is really just not playing well. It's 27 or more fantasy points to four of the last five quarterbacks they've faced.

And they've given up the third most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. They've given up five. What's that? Like a big group of like teams that have given up five and six. Yeah.

There are, yeah, there are four teams have given up six rushing touchdowns. Five teams have given up five. They're one of the five that have allowed five rushing touchdowns. When I saw that first, I was like, oh, five must be a lot.

Me too. Me too. Yeah. I went back and I'm like, oh, there's a lot of teams that have given five rushing touchdowns. When I saw that first, I was like, oh, five must be a lot. Me too. Me too, yeah. I went back and I'm like, oh, there's a lot of teams that have given up five. Yeah, I mean, look, it's still top 10, right? Nine or 10 teams giving up that many, but not as great of a stat as I thought. But also, Hill's thrown 37 and 38 passes

in his last two games, and you figure he's probably going to have to throw. Clyde Edwards-Elair, what's your... Like, Dobbins or Clyde Edwards-Elair? Dobbins. I have Clyde, I think, ranked higher right now, but I don't like that, so I'll probably switch it. And finally, Heath, New England at Miami.

Who are you confidently starting in this game? Can we just do that for the Dolphins? Yeah, we didn't do it for the Patriots, though. Damian Harris is a good flex and a very, very borderline number two running back in non-ppr okay and all right if parker plays heath are you starting lynn boden over davante parker no they would both be in the mediocre wide receiver three range. Okay.

Jamie, you know what's not mediocre? What's that? My sweater. And all of the wonderful clothes that we have gotten and we have bought from Express. It's been a tremendous shopping spree and a big-time upgrade to my wardrobe. I went outside the other day, which, you know, is rare, and I wore the jacket.

I wouldn't call it a winter coat, more like a fall or early spring jacket. Really awesome. Reversible jacket that I got from Express. That's great. This sweater, you've seen some of the other warm clothing I've gotten. I got socks on actually from Express right now. So I went to town and I love it. It's been great. You, Jamie, let us know, how did you feel about your experience with Express? Well, I wear all my Express clothes on HQ because I got all dressed. You got the fancy stuff. Yeah, I got fancy stuff. Yes. So I have several button down shirts and some jackets that I got from Express, which I love. And like I said, I wear them on HQ. I appreciate them for the clothes that they have. And I'm staring right now. I was waiting for you to say this because once you purchase something from Express, then you get the deals

that they continue to offer you. So it's funny that you mentioned the sweaters because they're offering right now 60% off all sweaters. So that's a great deal, especially for those of you in the Northeast that are dealing with this fun weather. Express is great. I am going to treat myself to some more clothes from Express and some more casual stuff because I like their formal wear so much. Like I said, I wear it mostly on our HQ programming. I'll be wearing some of that today for our Express show on CBS Sports HQ. All right. Listen, we've all been really really happy

with what we've gotten and it's great time to be shopping for other people or for yourself right now holiday deals jamie mentioned the deals on the sweaters and it's already very affordable website to begin with so go on express.com right now express you this holiday shop the best deals on new styles and gifts now in stores or online at express.com. And here we go into the games. Semi-finals week. I'm going to start with Seattle and Washington. There are some... Doesn't seem funny to say that.

Yeah, it does. Well, because Seattle's in Washington, is that why? Right. Yeah. But also because I wouldn't normally start with a Washington game. But, you know, you've got two defenses that are playing pretty well right now. Is it the competition? Is it the defense is just actually getting better?

And I think you have some tough calls here. First of all, Russell Wilson. So on the East Coast, I don't usually count Week 1 East Coast trips, do you? In terms of... It depends. Yeah, I mean, they were at Atlanta Week 1. I thought you justad it this way.

Well, you know... Do Thursday East Coast games count? No, it's just an easier travel. So it's just 1 p.m. Eastern East Coast games. Correct?

No, I'm making sure. 1 p.m. Eastern East Coast games, not in week one, and not if they stayed on the East Coast the prior week. I would side off on

that yeah i think that i think that's what it is um he you missed you missed a brilliant i already told him i already told me about it it was a i really enjoyed it uh all right well anyway he hasn't been great um in those games i can't find the stats but it was like 20 25 24 point and then oh just go to a pro football reference. They've got their splits, and you just look for 1 p.m. Eastern games, not in week one, when they didn't stay on the East Coast. Okay, week one, he torched Atlanta. But then at Miami,

at Buffalo, at Philadelphia. The Philadelphia game was a Monday night game, for what that's worth. But at Miami, at Buffalo, not great. And Wilson... Buffalo was great. No, it was. It was like 25 points, wasn't he? I mean, 392-2 in the rushing touchdown is pretty good. Did he score more points than that?

Am I crazy? Yeah, 25 points. Yeah, 25 points. Not very good. He threw a lot of interceptions in that game. If you tell me right now my quarterback's going 392-2... I'm going to tell you right now

that they're not going to give up 44 points like they did in that game. So... I think you should start Russell Wilson. All right. Well, convince me because he's only been really great against the jets and anybody can be great against the jets before that.

He'd been pretty disappointing for games. He's been great for over half of a decade. He has been one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy this season. And you're starting Russell Wilson. I'll tell you this. I have a choice, uh, that I'm going to struggle with. If Keenan Allen plays between Justin Herbert starting Russell Wilson. I'll tell you this. I have a choice that I'm going to struggle with if Keenan Allen plays between Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson

because Justin Herbert's situation is a thousand times better. Okay. I did drop Russell Wilson all the way down to number six. Do you feel like... He has not been a great fantasy quarterback since week nine. Yeah, but just looking at quarterback overall, Herbert slumping, Wilson Murray, obviously. This week, I'm sure you're feeling incredibly

great about Rodgers and Mahomes. And even Mahomes, like, at New Orleans, you know, maybe he won't have his amazing game, but whatever. Lamar Jackson, if... Narrator, he'll have an amazing game. Probably, but he's been a little disappointing, actually, three of his last four. After that, how many quarterbacks do you just feel incredibly great about this week?

Is it just three? You said Lamar? I said Lamar. Heath would say Josh Allen. Yep. I feel great about Josh Allen, yeah. But he's only had one big game without John Brown. I mean, one of those

was in terrible weather on a Tuesday. There's some circumstances with the John Brown game. Okay. Alright, but it's not like it used to be where there's like seven or eight quarterbacks where we just feel incredible about. No, I have Russell Wilson in the league and I'm nervous about it because his defense is really good. He struggles when he's pressured

and he hasn't been great lately. Alright, okay. So I'm not crazy. Like the one game where his attempts were up, he was awful and he hasn't been great lately all right okay so i'm not crazy like the one game where his attempts were up he was awful and it was the giants because their defense is good uh we talked about chris carson as of this morning carson was top 12 for dave and jamie and more like around 20th for heath i think he's 17th now for me um and I think you're starting Chris Carson I would start most of the rookies not over him not not Edward Ziller not Clyde um not Dobbins but Taylor Swift for now um Akers Robinson okay and uh DK Metcalf yes and then tyler lockett jamie said he's got him as like a number three heath you're always a little bit more optimistic i feel about lockett yeah i think so

and i like he's a guy because of those monster weeks who still projects as a borderline number one i dropped him down to a low end number two. But if his floor, and his floor over the last five or six weeks has basically been 11 PPR points, if that's his floor and the ceiling's the number one wide receiver of the week, I pretty much just have to start him. Yeah, I think the one thing that we've seen

since it's week, his last eight games, he's got two games with a touchdown. Both of those were against Arizona. And in four of those eight, he's been two games with a touchdown both of those were against arizona and in four of those eight he's been 10 ppr points or less yeah he's got i think 67 or fewer yards in nine of his last 10 games it's been very frustrating he does get a lot of catches typically um a good amount but okay so so let me give you this other stat stat of the game number two nine running backs have had 30 or more receiving yards against seattle that's a lot a good amount. But okay, so let me give you this other stat. Stat of the game number two. Nine running backs have had 30 or more receiving yards against Seattle. That's a lot.

McKissick somehow was very uninvolved in the passing game last week, but who would you start in PPR, McKissick or Lockett? If Alex Smith starts, I would start McKissick. I'd probably go with lock it but McKissick's been very good in revenge games has another revenge game for him what were the other ones against the Lions I think he had like 18 PPR points all right so so just one I only one. The thing that you want from McKissick is you want them trailing. Yeah.

This is a really interesting game. Okay, and he did get a lot of carries last week. He had 11 carries. So that's good. And McKissick or Dobbins, PPR? I've got McKissick higher. McKissick is probably safer. I have Dobbins ranked higher, but McKissick or Dobbins PPR? I've got McKissick higher. McKissick is probably safer. I have Dobbins ranked higher, but McKissick is safer.

I do have McKissick over Clyde in PPR as well. I would agree with that. And over Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, and James Conner. Agreed. Okay, now the Seahawks are still giving up the third most fantasy points to wide receivers, but in their last five games, no touchdowns. Only one wide receivers had more than 62 yards.

I talked about this yesterday. That was Josh Reynolds. So McLaurin or Tyler Lockett. McLaurin. He actually benefits. I think if Haskins starts as opposed to Alex Smith. Yeah, I've got,

um, I've got them very, very close, but I do have Lockett higher. First four games of the year with Haskins, McLaurin scored 11, 25, 12, and 21 fantasy points. Two games, two great games. Logan Thomas, Jamie, start or sit?

You have to start him at this point. I mean, you know, it's six of his last eight games, 10 or more PPR points. He scored in four of those. You know, it's just, it's hard to get away from what he's been doing, given what the tight end position looks like. And one thing I'll say is I was a little worried

when I was looking at Haskins that it might be worse for him if Haskins played because he has produced fantasy points better with Alex Smith, but his target share was actually higher with Dwayne Haskins. So I agree with Jamie, I'm starting him. And Seattle is so bad at tight end, against tight ends. Yeah, you might see that they at tight end against tight end. Yeah.

Yeah. You might see that they're 13th against tight ends, but in their last nine games, 53 to 75 yards to Herb Smith, Dan Arnold, Tyler Higbee, Richard Rogers, Dallas Goddard,

Ross Dwelly scored, Tyler Croft scored, Arnold scored, Richard Rogers scored, Goddard. I mean, they, yeah,

they are awful against tight ends. All right. So Logan Thomas or Jared Cook. I know he's going to go Thomas. Jamie, how about you? Thomas. All right, Logan Thomas or Hunter Henry? Thomas. Thomas.

All right. I'd start Thomas over Dallas Goddard. That's the one. I've got him right behind Dallas Goddard, but he's still a top six tight end for me. I'd start him over Ebron Evan Ingram all those guys Seattle DST is 11th for Jamie 15th for Dave and fourth for Heath pretty different there and three really great games in a row with you know I'm sure every podcast and publication told you to pick them up weeks ago but but if you did, they've been great at the Eagles, Giants, Jets.

Heath, you see another big game coming for the Seahawks? Yeah, and I don't think it probably matters who plays at quarterback. I think that they are going to score some fantasy points. Cool. Pittsburgh's at Cincinnati. And another game, it's like, why are we doing the second? Because Cincinnati, you can get away from everyone. But

Pittsburgh, I really want to hear, you can get away from everyone. But Pittsburgh, I really want to hear how you guys see this game unfolding. Roethlisberger has not been very good in his last four games. His last four games, he's at 5.03 yards per attempt. He has one completion of longer than 31 yards. And he hasn't had a good game since he destroyed dot, dot, dot Cincinnati, uh, 37 fantasy points five weeks ago against Cincinnati. So does he throw enough? Jamie does, does it matter? Does he do well enough?

Does the offense get fixed this week against the Bengals? Fixed to the level of, I think where they're comfortable with it. Probably not fixed to the level where I think fantasy managers can buy back in? I think that they will. He dropped the Aaron Rodgers relax on the media yesterday when he was clarifying his I'll hang it up if I'm not playing well statement after the game on Sunday.

And I think that's going to be a bounce back Big Ben performance. So I would not be surprised if he has a huge game. I certainly understand if fantasy managers want to get away from him. It makes total sense if you have a capable quarterback. I'm in a scenario where I'm debating Ben Roethlisberger and Jalen Hurts. That's how I feel about Ben. But I do think that this is a blow up type of spot because it's a primetime game. Everybody's looking at them as they've just lost two games after starting off perfect. He looks like an old quarterback. It's the typical Ben Roethlisberger setup where he sets up the trap for you. And so it would not shock me with how this run game has been struggling with James Conner at less than a hundred percent that they have to throw the ball, like what happened in the Bengals game when they couldn't run on them that

time. So I do think that you're going to get a potential. It wouldn't shock me at all if it's like 403 from Roethlisberger. That type of game for him. Then, Heath, what would that mean for the... How do you see it, and what do you think about the wide receivers? I am scared of Ben Roethlisberger in both directions.

I am scared of sitting him. I'm scared of starting him. So he kind of almost feels like the Tyler Lockett of quarter recs this week. He's a borderline top 12 guy for me. I don't, I think the upside that Jamie talked about absolutely exists and the floor is pretty low.

I'm going to start Deontay Johnson in full PPR. I'm going to start probably Juju too. I don't have any faith in Chase Claypool or James Washington really. I do think Ebron is a very solid starting tight end because of what this position is. I was just looking. It's not

really. I was wondering if the road bin thing has not really been a thing this year. He does have some terrible passing games on the road, but he has some great games as well. Yeah. I think one thing you can be encouraged by if you're, well,

they're going to blow them out. He's not going to have to throw. They don't operate like that. They just throw. They've had three big, big wins this year. One was early in the year. He only threw 22 passes against Cleveland,

but when they won 36, 10 against Cincinnati, he threw 46 times when they threw, when they won 27, three at Jacksonville, he threw 46 times. What were you going to say, Heath? Well, I was going to ask Jamie, and this is just my recollection, but it seems like over the last week, week and a half, we've heard several people, national reporters,

talk about how the Steelers aren't intending to throw that much and Ben's just going to passing plays instead. Like they're not calling that many passing plays. They can't run the ball. Yeah. But it sounds like everybody besides Ben wants to. I mean, I'm sure that they do want to. They need to have more balance on offense.

You know, they've been to the playoffs enough time. My Tomlin knows they're not going to win throwing the ball 47 times in the playoffs uh trying to be at a shootout with the Chiefs when they get to there when they get there if they do they see what the Browns are doing they saw what the Titans did last year they're smart enough to know that they can't put their defense on the field as much as they have been especially with the injuries that they have but I also think like to to your your question Heath uh they need to fix their passing game too and you know this, this is, if things go, I think,

the way that they would hope, which the point spread kind of indicates that this can almost be like a scrimmage for them and work on some things if they're able to. And so I think Roethlisberger,

he may not be 45 plus pass attempts, but in 30 to 35 against this defense, he can still have a big enough game. All right. So before I get to the running backs here, let me just do some starts and sits. Ben Roethlisberger or Taysom Hill? Hill. Tana Hill. Tana Hill.

Streamer guys. Trubisky, Hertz. I'll even throw Phillip Rivers on there. I have been ahead of all of them as of now. I currently have Trubisky ahead of Ben, but they're right in the same range. Okie dokie.

And are you going to trust any Steelers running back in this game? The Bengals give up the seventh most fantasy points to running backs, 4.91 yards per carry. We know they're not good. Their defense actually played a little bit better lately. I will say that as the competition has gotten a lot easier. But are you going to trust the Steelers running back? I would trust, and this sounds weird to say,

but I would trust Benny Snell if James Conner is out as a low-end number two in non-PPR and a flex option in PPR. At this point, more so than I would trust James Conner because clearly he's not 100% and is not running well and they're moving guys in and out. So, you know, the two game sample size that we have of Benny Snell as the starter, one was really good against Baltimore on Wednesday. He had over 90 total yards and one was terrible against what is a good Washington defense. This is not a good defense. They just put Dino Atkins on IR. And so it's a, it's a, it's a spot for him to have some success, but to what level, I just couldn't tell you.

Okay. By the way, do you see what Juju Smith-Huston's on pace for? No. He's on pace for 97 catches and Can I guess? And 813 yards. You're very close.

806 yards. My goodness. So who do you like better, Juju or Deontay? Deontay. I like Juju better in non-PPR, Deontay better in PPR. You just have to, again, wonder if he drops any passes, does he get benched once again? It's funny because, you know, Juju doesn't feel like he's having

a very good season, but he scored 13 or more PPR points six of his last eight games. Like, you know, he's been pretty consistent. Let's find out where he ranks in PPR for the season, but would you start Deontay or Juju over Terry McLaurin?

I'd start Deontay over McLaurin in PPR. Yeah. I wouldn't start any Steelers over McLaurin in non-PPR, I don't believe. He is wide receiver 26, tied with Corey Davis. That is season long, let's see, per game. He's not going to be that high. 36, wide receiver 36.

The problem is his floor has been pretty good. His ceiling just has not been very high for Juju. Yeah. All righty. Eric Ebron is a start you guys have him seventh in ppr and dave's a little bit lower on him and non-ppr he did not have a good game last week but he's been pretty reliable um so start eric ebron and sit all bangles yes okie dokie would you start um no would you start n Nelson Aguilar over your favorite Bengals wide receiver?

Yes. Yeah. All right. Houston's at Indianapolis. Your updated stat of the game. Before last week, it was all but one game. Now it's all but two games in which at least two Texans pass catchers have had 95 yards or a touchdown.

Every game except for two. The wind game at Cleveland and last week when they didn't have Cooks or Fuller. And the Colts, meanwhile, they've allowed 70 yards or a touchdown to 13 wide receivers in their last 10 games. They've allowed 98 or more yards to five wide receivers in their last four games.

And if A.J. Brown didn't drop a long touchdown, that would be even worse. So, your confidence level in the pass catchers for Houston, and who specifically, Heath? I don't know that I will have... We still don't have

Brandon Cooks ranked, correct, Jamie? No, I'm going to check. I don't think he practiced in full. That's what I thought. If Cooks gets a full practice in, then he will probably be right around wide receiver 20 for me. I'll

probably feel decent about starting him as a number two wide receiver. If he remains limited all week, then he's going to be more of a number three. Kiki QT and Chad Hansen are both mid-range number threes without Cooks and borderline number threes with Cooks. He practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday. All right, starter sit Deshaun Watson.

Start. Yeah, he's a borderline starter for me without Cooks, but cooks but with cooks he'd be a mid-range starter yeah i think you know you got to go back to what he did against the colts two games ago he was a fumbled snap away of a potential touchdown which would have put him over 20 fantasy points i still think his ceiling is good enough that you should trust it but you've seen the floor the last couple of games without Will Fuller. It hasn't been great. 18 points and 17 points. The Colts allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

You like him better than Roethlisberger? Certainly with Cooks, but without Cooks, would you like him better than Roethlisberger? I currently haven't ranked ahead of Roethlisberger. I do too. I'm starting him over Roethlisberger. The rushing for him is always going to keep him in play. You know, I think that's kind of been the reason

why he's been at the 17 and 18 point range the last two weeks. He had the rushing touchdown, I think it was two weeks ago. Or last week. Last week. No, no, no, you're right. It was two weeks ago. Last week he threw the touchdown at QT.

Right. So, I just, like, with teams like this this and especially you know he's he's clearly the it it this is a separate conversation uh which is going to be like one of the more coveted jobs around the league like you walk into the Houston job and you know you have that in him you know he's he's so good he's a man is is that like a better situation than to going to the Chargers when their job eventually opens and you have that quarterback too? Or the Jaguars where you have a fresh, you know, blank slate with all those picks and a rookie quarterback?

I don't want to get too sidetracked here. But in any event, he's keeping them afloat by himself. And you're seeing it. Yeah. Okay. So let's talk about this in a, in a, let's say a half PPR league rank of the following four players,

David Johnson, Jonathan Taylor, Naeem Hines, TY Hilton, half PPR league, David John, the three running backs and TY Hilton. How would you rank them?

Jamie, you can go first. I don't love David Johnson this week. So Taylor is by far and away.Y. Hilton, how would you rank them? Jamie, you can go first. I don't love David Johnson this week, so Taylor is by far and away the best. And then I probably would go with still Johnson over Hines in half PPR. Wait, but what about Hilton? You're definitely going Hilton over Johnson, right?

I'm sorry. Taylor, Hilton, Johnson, Hines. Okay. Heath? Taylor, Hilton, Hines, Johnson. Yeah, Johnson. I mean, look, he scores all the time, but his yards are so tough to come by. He's been pretty bad in tough matchups.

You trying to get away from him this week? He's not in my top 24 running backs, but he's just outside. Probably exaggerated. He doesn't score all the time. He scores a lot. And, okay, so that would basically be Houston. Jordan Aikens is a sit, right?

Jordan Aikens is a sit, yeah. Okay. Start or sit Philip Rivers, Heath? I really don't want to. I would start Ben Roethlisberger over him. I would certainly start Deshaun Watson over him. I would start Mitchell Trubisky over him. I would start Jalen Hurts over him.

Why, though? He's got 21 or more points in four straight games. That's pretty good. That's low-end starter. Oh, John Brown. John Brown is out, by the way. We just saw. John Brown ruled out.

Go ahead. 21 points is a number two quarterback. And most of the time, he's been right around 21 points is a number two quarterback. And most of the time that he's been right around 21 points. Yeah. Is it the number two quarterback? I mean, I feel like you come close. All right.

It's like right around 12, right? You've got to figure. Yeah. Okay. All right. But do you think he's got a lot of potential in this game or just going to run the ball all the time?

I think they're going to run the ball more than they pass it. I don't think he's going to be a bad start. I just prefer those guys. I would expect he'll be right in that 20-point range where he's been for most of the season. Okay. You've got to hope that the Texans' offense shows up for Phillip Rivers. We love Jonathan Taylor.

He's a must start. He's top 10. As far as Naeem Hines goes, this team has given up 28 or more receiving yards, Houston has, to a running back in nine straight games. Nine straight. So that's wild.

Eight of those had 35 or more receiving yards. I think it was, was it Jonathan Taylor though last time that had the receiving totals? Yeah. Hines had 22 yards, and Taylor had 44 yards and a touchdown receiving. But Hines, you know, he's not a bad flex in PPR. And then T.Y. Hilton's a must start.

He is top 18. Heath's the low guy that has him 18, so that tells you everything you need to know. Michael Pittman is a 6. Did you see his history against the Texans? I mean, you guys talk about it all the time. I don't know the numbers. This is amazing.

So he's played them 17 times in his career. Basically, full season. Guess the catches in those 17 games. He's not a huge catch guy, but I'll say 95. Heath? Oh, 17. I'll say 102. You're close. Well, you're close. Heath? Oh, 17. I'll say 102. You're close. Well, you're close.

98. The yards in those 17 games. Heath, what's the yards? In 17 games, I would guess he's at 1,750 yards. I will guess 1,580. 1,732. Oh my goodness.

And the touchdowns? The amazing thing is he has a couple of games with less than 20 yards. 17-32. Oh, my goodness. And the touchdowns? The amazing thing is he has a couple of games with less than 20 yards. 13 touchdowns. 12. 11. Damn it. 98, 17-32, and 11 touchdowns in 17 games against him. It's ridiculous.

Colts DSC's top seven. Let's go to our next game. Buffalo at Denver. John Brown is out. Why are you so confident in Josh Allen without John Brown? Five games without Brown. He scored 16 to 21 fantasy points in four of five games. He did have a huge game at San Francisco.

We were just talking about 21's good. 16 to 21. For Phillip Rivers, it's 21 or more. For Josh Allen, it's 19, 16, 17, 38, and 21 in five games without John Brown. Yeah. Anyway, why are you so confident? Y'all got him top five.

Heath has him second or third. Yeah, I would just agree with Jamie that there were some circumstances in those John Brown games. I don't think John Brown has been the reason that Josh Allen has been a top five fantasy quarterback this season. And I don't see anything in this matchup to not rank him top five. I mean, and you just saw, what was it, two games ago?

Without John Brown, he had a bowl game. Yeah, that was his one big game at San Francisco. And then he played well against Pittsburgh. And Gabriel Davis has touched down three straight games. I mean, you know, they're getting production from other guys. Yeah. Okay. I mean, I feel like the touchdowns are kind of what what's missing. Like he had the game against

the Jets. He threw for over 300 yards. Just couldn't get the touchdowns. Maybe he just doesn't get as many big plays. I don't know. Like who are you? Who are you starting Josh? Who are you benching Josh down for? Yeah, nobody. Because I don't feel comfortable about that many quarterbacks. There's three quarterbacks right now

in the NFL that have separated themselves. And I think Russell Wilson's just kind of fallen off this a little bit. But it's Mahomes, Rogers, and Allen, just based on how they're playing as quarterbacks. I feel pretty good about Tom Brady this week. Oh, I'm not saying you shouldn't

fancy one. I would have a trouble deciding between him and Josh Allen. I would start Allen because you all have Allen ranked higher. And when all three of you have Allen ranked higher, I go with you. But it wouldn't shock me if Brady was better at Atlanta. All right. Well, anyway, that game is tomorrow. Sit the Buffalo running backs. It's a great matchup.

They're flexes. I prefer Moss just based on the fact that he got more carries last week after getting benched the week before. So, you know, take that for what it's worth. They've been so up and down. Moss, I think, has two games this season with double digits and carries. He's been good in one of them. This could be a double-digit carry game.

All right, Heath. Cole Beasley. We're obviously going to start Stefan Diggs. Cole Beasley, I mean, this guy is really annoying. He's got like four, 100 yard games and he's got four games with like fewer than 30 yards or so. I don't know, 41, whatever it is. He's very hit or miss starter. He has been less annoying when John Brown doesn't play. He's been super duper annoying when John Brown has played. So I think there's enough targets there. And if you

think Josh Allen's going to have a good day, yes, it could be Gabriel Davis, but I feel pretty good about starting Cole Beasley. So that's what I thought. He has double digit targets in three of five games, but here are his yards without John Brown. 53, 112, 25,

130, and 41. And he only has one touchdown. I almost feel like I got this wrong, but he's actually been pretty bad three of five games without John Brown. I kind of feel like you got it wrong, too. But I'm going to look. Yeah, please do. Because it didn't feel right.

Okay, let's talk about Beasley Orr's about Beasley ors. Beasley or Naeem Hines? Beasley. Beasley. Beasley or Leonard Fournette if Ronald Jones is out? Beasley. Beasley.

Beasley or McKissick? McKissick. Okay. So I think, yeah McKissick? McKissick. Okay. So I think, yeah, I'd go McKissick. Yeah, I'd go McKissick. Did I get this right? Well, the tricky thing with John Brown is he's had also two games where he left and did not produce any stats.

He didn't catch any passes or any yards or any touchdowns. And so in both of those games, Cole Beasley was also good. So in the games that Brown has not fully put, yes, you were not wrong. I mean, the thing you've got to sign up for with Beasley is he's got 10 or more targets in three of his last four games. That gives you the

opportunity to be good. We go over to the Broncos. Are you starting anyone confidently on Denver? No. Patrick is the closest, but not confidently starting anyone confidently on Denver? No. Patrick is the closest, but not confidently. I don't have any confidence, no. Okay.

It would... What the hell? What is happening that my phone keeps falling on the floor? I don't understand. It was just... Every time you make a point, you spike it like a moron.

Stop spiking your phone. Jeez. Jeez, man. This is is gonna be the second phone i break in the last week oh all right sorry very they recover your pictures no oh yeah two years photos and videos gone awful uh anyway uh noah fant Heath, you always seem high on Noah Fant. No, I can't. But at the same time, and this, like, just to be clear, I would start

Noah Fant over Jared Cook. And we'll reassess the running back situation if one of them is out, because it, you know, could be a good situation if that's the case. Detroit at Tennessee. Let's talk about Detroit at Tennessee here, guys. You're not going to sit TJ Hawkinson,

but if you want to be even more excited, TJ Hawkinson has seven or more targets in six of his last seven games. And there have been six tight ends against the Titans that have had six to eight targets. All of them had 50 yards or a touchdown. Hockinson's going to have a good game. The other stat I had was that,

you know, Tannehill just has, he's in the three games he's played where they've won by more than one score. He's thrown 28, 22 and 24 passes. They've all been massive blowouts. That's kind of the issue with the stat and Corey Davis hasn't been very

good in those games. So that's, I guess kind of what I'm concerned about here is the faith you have and everybody's will start AJ Brown, but Tannehill and Corey Davis with the game script, potentially getting away from them with obviously Derek Henry against the best matchup set up for a big game. Heath, what do you think about Tannehill and Corey Davis? I think as good as Ryan Tannehill's been basically for almost a year and a half now, yes, there's some concern about the game script, but we've also seen games like when they, earlier in the year, he threw 24 passes

and four of them were touchdowns. Some of these monster Derrick Henry games, he also has wild efficiency and is still very good. So I think you should just treat Ryan Tannehill as if he's a starting quarterback, unless there's a circumstance that really, really causes you to question that. So I'm starting him and Corey Davis has had a couple of bad games and one of them was his most recent game. And so that makes you worried about him, but he's also had a floor of 10 PPR points in like 90% of his games this year, and he's shown us 25-point upside on multiple occasions.

I'm just going to start him as a number two wide receiver. This stat is ridiculous from what the Lions have allowed to receivers in their last five weeks. Do you know it? No. 92 catches, 1,203 yards, and five touchdowns on 115 targets to Carolina, Houston, Chicago, and Green Bay.

They're bad. Eight receivers have scored at least 13 PPR points in those five games. Yeah. No, they are bad, but the times that Corey Davis has let us down, basically, have been the times where Tannehill hasn't had to throw. Not exclusively, but that's been the case.

What we saw last week was, and they're typically pretty good at this when things are going right for them, is they will throw to score early enough, like we saw the flea flicker last week, and then just run to win. And so the thing you want to hope for is obviously the Detroit offenses show up to make them have to throw a little bit more

but clearly you want to see them be a little bit aggressive throwing early in the game and like Keith said you know they he could throw 20 times and get four touchdowns he's just that type of quarterback so his floor has typically been 20 fantasy points I think you buy into that for Tannehill and then hope the receivers are the ones that are catching those passes so I think you buy into that for Tannehill and then hope the receivers are the ones that are catching those passes. So I think you just start them. And stat of the game. Number three, the lions. Yeah.

They're bad against everything. They've given up 66 yards or a touchdown to a tight end in six of their last seven games. And the only exception is Jordan Aikens and he dropped two touchdowns. So is there any interest in any Titans tight end? I think they just become too much of a group. Yep. Okay.

So let's go to Detroit Heath and I'm assuming chase Daniel is going to start. It doesn't look good for Stafford. So how much do you trust Deandre Swift in these circumstances? It sounds like you have him pretty high. Well, I, I think in the rag now thingnow thing would change some things,

but it's a terrible defense they're facing, and Chase Daniel has thrown about a third of his passes to running backs over his career. He was Alex Smith-lite backing him up. He learned under Drew Brees. He's going to dump the ball off quickly. I think DeAndre Swift will be good. I've got him as a number two running back

right around 16 or 17, and I'm starting him. I'm starting Hawkinson, but I don't have much confidence in any other lines. Cool. And then how about DeAndre Swift? DeAndre Swift.

I could get a good wide receiver here to compare them to. You going to start them over Tyler Lockett? Yeah. How about DeAndre Swift or T.Y. Hilton? T.Y. I would go Swift and non-PPR Hilton and PPR. This week he should change his name to T.R. for track record. Juju Smith-Schuster

or DeAndre Swift? Swift. Swift. I think that's pretty much it for this game. Tennessee's DST is an okay option. They're not good,

but they're, you know, top like 15, basically. All right, we got three games left of the three games we already talked about earlier in the show. Jacksonville-Baltimore will be the first one. We're going to take a quick break, real quick break,

and we'll be back in about 30 seconds to wrap up this slate of games. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your

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Let's see if there's anything we haven't covered here. I mean, we've talked so much about... Honestly, I don't want to be too repetitive. So anything you guys would like to add in this game? You want to talk about James Robinson? People are a little nervous about the matchup. The Ravens have actually been kind of crummy against running backs the last couple weeks.

And on the season, they're 22nd against running backs. Jamie, your level of confidence in James Robinson? You're starting James Robinson. I mean, it just comes down to, you know, if you have some guys that are in that same range that you think you might want to start over. Like, one I'm struggling with, to be honest with you, is Josh Jacobs, because I do think that he could play well tonight

against the Chargers, but I'm still going to start Robinson as of now. He's been dealing with his knee injury for whatever it's worth. Uh, keeps showing up on the injury report. You do have some shuffling or run around with the offensive line. And I do think that this is a get right game for the Ravens defense. So there are some things that play with John, uh, with James Robinson, but he's just been so good. He's so involved in the passing game. He's so involved in everything. I mean, he's really their entire offense. So it's hard to get away from. You just have to make sure that you feel comfortable enough to bench

him. I don't think most people should do that, though. Okay, and if you want to look at him in previous tough matchups, if you think this is a tough matchup, in my opinion there have been three. The Colts, the Steelers, and the Browns. Against the Colts, he had 90 total yards, did not score.

That was his first game. Against the Steelers, he had 94 total yards, did not score. And against the first game. Against the Steelers, he had 94 total yards, did not score. And against the Browns, he had an enormous game. He had like 160, 159 total yards and a touchdown and five catches. He also averaged something like four catches

per game with Gardner Minshew. Yeah, 27 catches in seven games. All right. Set our peace. Although, I mean, I think we should probably do some comparisons. Heath, would you go Josh Jacobs or James Robinson? Uh, Robinson. I am, I've got Robinson as a top 10 running back. I'm starting him.

And you are the low guy on him. Top 10. Okay. All right. I won't even ask anymore. Um, start him. And I'm not going to start anyone else on Jacksonville. We love Lamar Jackson as of now.

He's top four. He might move down a little bit. He will move down a little bit if Marquise Brown is out. We like J.K. Dobbins. Jamie likes him more than Heath. Jamie's got him as the start of the week. If Marquise Brown plays, you're talking about a guy who has a touchdown in three straight games.

You're talking about Jacksonville. They're 26th against wide receivers. where are you going to rank marquise brown uh heath uh number three wide receiver with big time upside but he wouldn't quite get into my top 30 in any format jamie i had him i think uh like right around 25 26 in non-PPR and closer to 30 to 33, I think. Maybe 33 in PPR. I'd have a very tough time with him in non-PPR without a locket, just based on what matchup is and what you've seen

recently from those two guys. If he's out, who's a better streamer, Willie Sneed or Lynn Bowden? Or another team. What? Someone from another team. Someone else? Yeah. It's so hit or miss. Willie Sneed would probably be the best one, but I don't know how many people want to start Willie Sneed.

Alrighty. Start Mark Andrews. Wait, no, but I asked you Sneed or Lynn Bowden. I don't know if you heard that. Bowden. Okay. Start Mark Andrews. Start the Ravens. DST. Kansas City at New Orleans. Patrick Mahomes is top two.

And he's Mahomes. Clyde Edwards-Elair or... Lynn Bowden. Clyde. Clyde. Clyde Edwards-Elair or... Gallman. Gallman.

Clyde. All right, one more. Clyde. All right, one more. Clyde Edwards-Ziller. Let's do a wide receiver. Kiki Cutie. Clyde. Clyde.

One more. Aguilar. Clyde in non-PPR. Aguilar in PPR. Man, Clyde could be terrible. Right? He could be terrible this week well you're comparing him to Nelson Aguilar I was pivoting I was saying separately he could be terrible like this is one of those things where sorry go ahead no I got you I was just saying I agree oh this is one of those

things where you can fall into a trap with Clyde because I think they're going to win on the road I think they're going to be able to kind of do what they want to offensively, but this Saints defense is still so good against the run. Like you can't buy what happened last week as the indication of what the run defense is. Right. Okay. And then Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas,

any other wide receivers you're interested in? No. No. Let's see how the Saints can do against against tight ends they've gotten a lot better against tight ends uh in their last 10 games only two tight ends of more than 31 yards and i think only two have caught a touchdown so we'll see how they hold up against the best of the best tasem hill so he's top 10 and uh jamie like, what do you expect from Taysom Hill this week? 23 to 25 fantasy points, 33 plus rushing yards,

and one passing touchdown, one rushing touchdown, one interception. This is our last Lowe's home team watch party of the year. Come hang out with us on Twitch. We're watching the game 4 p.m eastern and we'll be talking about it we've got interviews lined up and i've not this is the most excited i've been for a home team watch party so can't wait to watch this game and break it down alvin camara any hesitation at all i mean look he had uh he had seven catches last week but he had three in the three previous games with Taysom Hill combined.

So what was the difference in that game? Just what was it? Pass attempts, chasing points. Uh, yeah, I guess so. So you're confident in the,

because two weeks ago at Atlanta, Taysom Hill through 37 times, I think, and he only had two catches. Camara, you're still feeling great about him or what? Yeah. You're seeing what I would hope is the evolution of Taysom Hill

as he's throwing the ball a little bit better, a little bit more successfully to the guys that matter. I mean, it's been kind of consistent with Michael Thomas, but you go back the last two weeks with Jared Cook, there's been a little bit more production. And then Alvin Kamara last week, again, chasing points. I think you buy into that.

So I don't know if you mentioned this, Adam, but Adam Schefter reporting that don't expect Drew Brees this week. Sean Payton kind of indicated that. So it looks pretty safe for Taysom Hill. And we're going to get a lot of tough questions about Michael Thomas, because it's that time of year we got great teams remaining in fantasy so he's not like a top five guy he is you know he is certainly a must start he's top 12

in PPR he's top 15 in non-PPR but you know Jonathan Taylor how many rookie running backs would you start over michael thomas in full ppr full yeah uh just taylor not acres acres and taylor for me yeah i think i'd still go with thomas okay as great as acres was last week he had two catches i just don't see him being heavily involved in the passing game in a game they're blowing out their opponent whereas thomas could this could be a 10 catch game for michael thomas yeah i'm i really oh god i can't wait tough matchup i i cannot deal with this how do they i know how much it frustrates you they give up the second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers i just don't understand they've given up 97 yards or a touchdown to five wide receivers in their last five games. And that does not even include Lynn Bowden. Because in our database, he had 82 yards.

Their stats don't even include him. I just, I don't know. I don't get it. I want to be clear. I'm not downgrading Michael Thomas because of the Chiefs matchup. I just said that to frustrate you. You did a great job. That's one of the most frustrating things when I look at the matchups.

All right, then. New England at Miami. Next. Which DST do you like better? Dolphins, but it's close. In all seriousness, if you go back to the start-o-meter, confidence-o-meter segment, we talked about this game more extensively. We talked about all the relative pieces.

I guess I'll just ask you, if Devontae Parker plays, segment we talked about this game more extensively we talked about all the relative pieces um i guess i'll just ask you if davante parker plays would you start davante parker or cory davis davis davante parker kiki cutie is brandon cook's plan yes parker i might start cutie anyway i i he's going to be less than 100 he's he's dealing the thing you got to factor in is Belichick and what he does against rookie quarterbacks. I mean, he turned Justin Herbert upside down a few weeks ago. He's 21-5 in his career as a coach against rookie quarterbacks. It's just absolutely amazing. Now, he doesn't have the same level of defense. And obviously, Brian Flores and that coaching staff knows what they're going to try and do because Flores was part of that.

But I think Tua without Gusecki with Parker, less than a hundred percent, this could be an ugly game for the dolphins offensively. You have so many moving parts in the running back situation. I think Lynn Bowden, and I, you know, I don't think we've talked enough about Matt Collins. If there is no Devante Parker as a desperation play, because he had nine targets last week also. And, you know, just maybe fed targets by default, but there's just not a lot to like about the dog situation. Like Lynn Bowden can either be somebody who is like, Oh wow,

that guy has a chance. That guy was really good. I'm glad I played him. Or it's he's a converted running back, playing wide receiver, and is he really that good that I should trust him? Even though he's got 11 targets last, or 13 targets last two weeks? Right. Okay, well, look, I think on the Mailbag Show, when we have more practice information,

we'll have the Friday practice report. We'll be able to talk more about Lin Bowden because we'll have a lot of Lin Bowden questions. Correct. Correct. So we'll talk to you Thursday. It was like a Friday. And we'll have the Mailbag Show that airs on Saturday So we'll talk to you Thursday. It was like a Friday. And we'll have the mailbag show that airs on Saturday.

I want to thank Heath and Jamie and Ben Schrager. I'm Adam Azer. And we will talk to you tomorrow. And make sure you're watching CBS Sports HQ. And we'll see you on Twitch today at 12 o'clock.