Fantasy Football Today - Start or Sit (AFC): Tough RB Matchups This Week (11/12 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 12, 2020

There are some difficult start or sit decisions to be made this week, but we are here to help! Who are some players we love (3:00) and some players to avoid (6:53) in Week 10? Get Jared Goff in your lineup and leave your Patriots on your bench. We also discuss the replacement RBs with tough matchups this week like Jerick McKinnon and Mike Davis ... Rankings disputes (13:31)! Drew Lock, John Brown and Christian Kirk. Then you'll hear from Jacob Gibbs as he tells you some key advanced stats for Week 10 (23:30) and we've got the Startometer (26:00) for JAC-GB, NE-BAL and BUF-ARI ... Start or Sit for Broncos-Raiders (31:40), Bengals-Steelers (40:22), Texans-Browns (49:30), Chargers-Dolphins (55:35), Jaguars-Packers (1:03:40), Patriots-Ravens (1:05:35), Bills-Cardinals (1:11:30) ... Email us at [e-mail] You can also download and subscribe to the full-length Fantasy Football Today podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-podcast/id261735167 Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what I've done with this spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races. Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again.

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Welcome to Week 10, everybody. Kicking it off tonight with the Colts and the Titans. And we've got some AFC home games to Week 10, everybody. Kicking it off tonight with the Colts and the Titans. And we've got some AFC home games to preview today, plus Jacksonville, Green Bay, and Buffalo, Arizona. Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg and Heath Cummings. And this episode is sponsored by Express. Express is all new and all about you with a fresh assortment of casual,

versatile, and super comfortable styles. Find out more about express and their exclusive offer later in the show and yeah i got i got a big order of express clothing coming awesome stuff and a great way for you to save money we'll tell you about it later what's going on guys you know i think we got some pretty tough calls this week does it feel that way to you like kind of a a tricky tricky slate this week very Very much so. Really? Okay, good. There's some players I have ranked in certain spots. I'm like, why?

Yeah. But then you look and it's like Jonathan Taylor is one of them. I think everybody, especially coming off of last week, would have said on Sunday night, you're not going to be able to start Jonathan Taylor until we see something different. And now he's in my top 20 running backs and I can't find anybody else I want to put ahead of him. I mean, for me, it's, it's Mike

Davis and Giovanni Bernard. I mean, you know, you're talking about guys that are going to get a lot of work if Davis for sure at this point and Gio, we're still waiting to find out on Joe Mixon, but those are not easy matchups for those guys at all. But you know, they've been for the most part, so successful every time they've gotten this opportunity and so it's just one of those scenarios of i guess i gotta play them you know and just kind of hope for the best and format matters i think for both those guys as well i was all set to start chase edmonds over jonathan taylor but i don't know that i can do that anymore because you know kenyan drake's back at practice yeah but that's good he's better with kenyan Drake there. I don't know about that. What do you mean? No, no, no.

Well, I mean, statistically, yes, he is. Well, but for fantasy, no, I'll take the 20 carries instead of the four carries. Yeah, and you know, Jamie, you talked about Mike Davis and Giovanni Bernard, but I think we usually get excited to start backup running backs who get the opportunity, but those two guys have tough matchups. Bernard's not...

Pittsburgh's defense has been a little bit leaky lately in terms of running, but Jarek McKinnon and Michael Hasty at New Orleans, that's not easy. If DJ Dallas gets another start, the Rams give up the six fewest points to running backs. If you have to go with Rex Burkett, Damian Harris did practice, but Baltimore gives up the fewest fantasy points to running backs. If you have to go with Rex Burkett, Damian Harris did practice, but Baltimore

gives up the fewest fantasy points to running backs. Even the replacement guys could be rough this week. Absolutely. It's nice to have Miles Sanders back for that side of things. It's one of those... And look, Kenyon Drake,

he's a guy that has a shot if he's 100 of those. And look, Kenyon Drake, I mean, you know, he's a guy that has a shot if he's 100% healthy. But in terms of some of these guys that normally you'd be like, I'm thrilled. It's not as easy. All right. So let's be more optimistic, Jamie.

Give me the player you love this week. Jared Goff. He's the star of the week. Love the setup for him. Just the numbers are just staggering with the Seahawks allow. Basically, it's 30 fantasy points per game on average. Twenty nine point two is what they give up to opposing quarterbacks to the last three quarterbacks to face them went over 40 fantasy points. He averages over 330 passing yards per game against them in his last four. It's, it's just, it's just the perfect setup. And, you know, look,

he was awful. The last time he stepped on the field, the dolphins just completely frustrated him. You would have say to any fantasy player, your quarterback's going to throw the ball 60 times. What's your expectation from the fantasy points? Well, it's not 12 yeah that's what he had awful uh goffel it was goffel goffel good i like that uh but he will not be goffel this week this is a great week for jared goff i think you know it's a good week for quarterbacks uh i have him eight i would like to put him somewhere in the top three but it's just hard to do that okay heath

how about you player you love this week? I think it's Mike Davis. It's a difficult matchup for running against. And his workload has been just a little bit spotty recently. But you just look at the last time they faced Tampa Bay, and he got one carry and played 24 snaps and scored 15.4 PPR points. They're going to have to get the ball out quick. They're not going to be able to run it very well. So I do expect a large number of targets for Davis.

And like Jamie said, with him and Giovanni Bernard both, they've just been so good. They've got maybe one or two. I don't know if Gio's ever actually had a bad game without Joe Mixon, but Davis has maybe one or two things that slightly concern you. Other than that, he's been a top 12 running back, and we have very few of those right now in fantasy football. I say just to kind of stay in the same theme adam there is one replacement option that could be great and that's duke johnson oh yeah yeah so yeah one guy that's

you know stepping into a very positive situation based on what the opportunity is i mean you know we just saw 20 total touches in the game where david johnson got knocked out and romeo cornell said on wednesday his status is up in the air, didn't practice. You know, we don't know if he's going to get cleared. So he could be in terms of the replacement guys and, and he makes a great point for Mike Davis. You know, hopefully it's the early part of the Christian McCaffrey absence, Mike Davis,

as opposed to the latter part because that guy wasn't as good. And Giovanni Bernardino, same thing, but Duke Johnson may be the better of that trio of guys that are getting a good opportunity this week. I don't have it ranked that way. I'm sure Heath doesn't either. But there is a very big possibility that Duke Johnson is the best backup running back this week. Is there another Texans running back that they might throw in the mix? Because they don't want to give that workload to Duke, perhaps?

Or do you think it's just Duke? Yeah, I think they have CJ Proseis on their roster, if I'm not mistaken. Which is like the one guy in the NFL who's not taking early down the road. Okay. Yeah, and I think that if Mark Ingram misses another game,

this is a really good setup for J.K. Dobbins and even Gus Edwards, right? Yeah, it was... I know, I mean, look, I'm sure the Ravens are happy to have Mark Ingram back in practice, but when they showed the video of him walking out with Lamar Jackson with his helmet and pads on, I was like, oh, man, now we don't get to see one more game of J.K. Dobbins

and even Gus Edwards. It's looking like Ingram's going to play again, so it could be messy. All right, so the players that we love, Jamie said Jared Goff, Heath said Mike Davis. Players to avoid. Players to avoid. Heath, you want to start? Cam Newton.

Okay, yeah. He is having such a fascinating year. He's on pace for 3,000 passing yards, 17 rush touchdowns, four passing touchdowns. Yeah. This is a bad matchup against a very good defense.

And I don't want to drop Cam Newton because I think I want to start him next week. I believe they play Houston next week, right? Yes. Yep. But he's just barely inside my top 24. I would start about six different streamers over him. Yeah, I agree on that.

Buddy Howell is the other running back on the Texans roster. Okay, Duke Johnson. Duke Johnson it is. Jamie, give me a sit. DJ Moore is just so hard to trust right now. I mean, you know, the targets the last two weeks, the way that this game feels like it's going to go. He was great against them in week two.

Absolutely a stud. So was Robbie Anderson. Teddy Bridgewater threw the ball 49 times in that game, or 42 times. They were just, you know, miserable in terms of what happened. That's the game McCaffrey got hurt, too. So that's, you know the game heath is referencing mike davis came off the bench and had eight catches so they're probably going to have a similar game plan but now you have curtis samuel in the mix and i just don't know what to make a dj more at this point like i i don't want to say i don't like him um and i'm going to be forced to start him in a couple of leagues

but it's it's just so frustrating because he's so good. And they just don't use him. I don't get it. Okay. Well, yeah, that game could get ugly, which might be good for him because the last two times the Buccaneers lost, they beat the Panthers by 14 and they beat the Packers by 28. They just got embarrassed by New Orleans.

They might smash the Panthers. We shall see. What's the spread on that game? Anyone know? Off the top of your head? It might be four and a half. I think they're on the road. It is.

They are on the road and they're five and a half point favorites. Five and a half. Okay. So let's get into some... Well, I wanted to talk about those replacement running backs, but I think we kind of did. I want to promote some stuff real quick, by the way.

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The First Cut crew is on the scene at Augusta National, ready to bring you every insight into its tradition unlike any other. Listen to the First Cut Golf Podcast wherever you like to listen to podcasts. Yeah, I had this whole segment here about running backs with tough matchups

replaced with running backs. Mike Davis, Jarek McKinnon, Jermichael Hasty, DJ Dallas, Giovanni Bernard, Rex Burkhead. Don't know how many of them are actually going to get that opportunity. Duke Johnson has a good matchup. I don't know. The segment kind of already was covered.

The GL one is fascinating to me because the Steelers, I think they allow the fewest receptions to running backs. I think it's 22 on the season. And you said it, Adam. Teams have the fewest receptions to running backs. I think it's 22 on the season. And you said it, Adam. Teams have been running on them lately to a degree. A little bit, yeah.

For what the Steelers started the season. I mean, obviously the Devin Bush injury factors into that. But he's not going to have a lot of success running the ball. That's just not his game. It's going to be the total yards. It's going to be what he does catching the ball. So if they can contain him through the air, we'll see how he does. But it's hard to get away from what Gio's been. Like you said,

almost every time Joe Mixon's out, he has a great performance. Yeah, this is from The Athletic. The Steelers have now given up 10 runs of 14 yards or longer over the past 14 quarters ever since Devin Bush went out. So it's not like guys are running all over them,

but the Ravens did. Tony Pollard had two runs of 20 yards. So that's a lot. That's 10 runs of 14 yards or longer over the past 14 quarters. I'm thinking Lamar Jackson is part of that too, which is a little deceiving. Right, and the first game,

which on the flip side of that is, that was a lot of Derrick Henry going into the middle of the defense, not having big having big runs yeah he didn't do that well the other side right yeah so it's again it's not a great matchup but it's a better matchup than it used to be all right well anyway we'll cover all those running backs the bottom line is you look at the running back landscape if you get a guy who's starting if you get a guy who's going to get a lot of touches you're going to have to start them in most scenarios. Fair to say? Yes.

Okay. All right. Listen, I talked to you about Express and I got a lot of stuff last night. I told you I was waiting for my first round of clothes to come in. I got a button down shirt, a t-shirt, and this really nice sweater that I was going to wear on the show today. Take a look at this. YouTubers. The only reason I'm not wearing it, it's really not cold yet. It's kind of hot in New York. Nice weather. So I would have been sweating my head off if I had worn this sweater today. But it's beautiful. It fits me perfectly. So I got my size yesterday. I ordered two more shirts. I ordered a blazer. I ordered two ties. I ordered some dress socks. These are all the things they have on Express. They also have like cologne and watches.

Great place for men and a great store for women as well. So go to express.com and shop. The fit, the comfort. I mean, most athletic or taller men don't think Express can fit them. Heath's pretty tall. He's fairly athletic. He loves all of his Express clothes.

They fit him perfectly. They got the Luxe Comfort Knit Collection, which I got one of the shirts from there. I can't wait for that. Sharp details, soft fabrics, like wearing your favorite sweats. They've got jeans. They've got suits.

Just great stuff at Express. And it's just nice to get clothes that fit you well. It's nice to get clothes that you look good in. And these are different. I mean, I've never seen shirts like this. Just different. Just kind of stand out. And you feel good. You feel confident when you put on clothes that you look good in. And these are different. I mean, I've never seen shirts like this. Just different. Just kind of stand out and you feel good. You feel confident when you put on clothes that you like.

To get the exclusive offer, text FOOTBALL to 397-737. Get $25 off your $50 purchase. Text FOOTBALL to 397-737. One more time. Send a text message to 397-737. One more time. Send a text message to 397-737. Football is the word to text there. Get 25 bucks off your $50 purchase. All right, let's do some 60-second rankings disputes. These are going to be good ones here. We've got Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk, John Brown, big differences in the rankings. Uh, Heath much higher on Tyler Boyd and much lower on Kirk and Brown than Jamie is.

So why don't we start with that? Uh, Tyler Boyd, Heath, Jamie's got him 24th in PPR, 31st in non-PPR. Sounds like Jamie hates Tyler Boyd. No, he's moved up. Refresh, buddy. Refresh. Okay. Where is he now? He is 21 in PPR. I think 24 in non-PPR. Sounds like Jamie hates Tyler Boyd. No, he's moved up. Refresh, buddy. Refresh. Okay, where is he now? He is 21 in

PPR. I think 24 in non-PPR. I'm skipping Tyler Boyd. Let's go to the next two. Unfortunately, John Brown has moved as well in my ranking. So this is like, I think these are still interesting players to talk about. Yeah, because he was 41st for you in PPR. He was 22nd

for Jamie. Where is he now? 27th. Damn it. All right. I'll be the devil's advocate there, though. I think Drew Locke is someone that I think we could still have a debate about. Okay. Has not moved.

I saw him in the rankings disputes, and he is still a dispute. I have him right around 20th. I think Dave and Jamie have him right around 12th. And the main thing I think for me is I'm not as confident that he's going to get to garbage time. We've had some, well, Jamie and Pete have had some fun poking fun at my Jake Luton garbage time statement, but Drew Locke legitimately has fallen down by 21 points each of the last two weeks in the third quarter. And almost all of his production, in fact, like fantasy wise, all of his production has come in. All six of his touchdowns over the past two weeks have come after his team's fallen down by 21 points late in the second half. He's thrown for over 400 yards in those circumstances. Before that, he's mostly been awful.

And accuracy-wise, he's mostly been awful. So it's like he has to get to the prevent defense. And I'm just not as confident this game will get to that situation. Okay. So Jamie, you can talk about drew locker. You have, I think 12th and Denver,

by the way, they air it out. They have the most intended air yards per pass attempt in the NFL. So they are throwing the ball downfield. They are also 30th in completed air yards. Well, they're trying Heath. Okay.

Jamie 12th for drew lock yeah i mean he has a point they may not have to get to the fourth quarter for lock to have success but this is also a raiders defense that's given up a lot of production to quarterbacks outside of the win game to baker mayfield and so i just look at this team they're struggling to run the ball right now um their defense is struggling to stop people and i think Derek Carr is going to have a good game. He actually has a very solid production at home. So I think they will be playing with a lead in terms of the Raiders. And so this is one of four or five games with the projected total to be over 50. I don't think it's going to be all Raiders. I don't think it's going to be Melvin Gordon and

Phillip Lindsay. So I think Locke is going to be not to the same extent that he has been the last couple of weeks where he's 25 and 30-something fantasy points. But I think 24, 25 is kind of a good number to look for for him. I just like to say, you know, three straight games with 40 or more attempts. You know, two of those have been very good. His receiving core, I think, is the strength of his team right now. So I like the way Locke is doing, is giving you his fantasy production.

However he gets there, he's getting there. Okay. So let me go back to John Brown, who I know is no longer much of a dispute. He's changed in the rankings quite a bit. But I think I gave that stat that the Cardinals, I just gave this on Tuesday, the Cardinals have not,

really have not given up big games to two wide receivers once this year. So if we're expecting Stefan Diggs to be, you know, great, and he'll probably see a lot of Patrick Peterson, so maybe he won't, but this is not a matchup that looks great, I guess, in that regard. Although I will say the Cardinals have had mostly a pretty easy schedule,

but not once this year have two wide receivers scored double-digit fantasy points in non-PPR or 14 or more PPR fantasy points against Cardinals have had mostly a pretty easy schedule, but not once this year have two wide receivers scored double-digit fantasy points in non-PPR or 14 or more PPR fantasy points against Cardinals. So why do you guys both have John Brown now in your top 30? Jamie? Can I run down the schedule for you, please? Yeah.

All right, you tell me the second receiver on these teams. First week, San Francisco. Yeah, they didn't even have Debo, so they didn't even have a first receiver. Second week, Washington. Yeah, Dottrell even have Debo, so they didn't even have first receiver. Second week, Washington. Yeah, Dodger a little bit. Third week, Detroit. Okay, you want to say Marvin Jones, that's fine.

Fourth week, Carolina. They did a good job in containing the second guy. It was the Robbie Anderson show. Week five, the Jets. Okay. Week six, the Cowboys. That's one of the games we're referencing. Two guys over 13.

Week seven. No, but they didn't, right. But CeeDee Lamb was like seven for 65 or something, right? Seven for 64. I'll take seven for 64 in PPR. That's not bad. Okay. And if you tell me that John Brown's getting 10 targets

like CeeDee Lamb did, I'll sign up for that right now. All right. It's very different players, but go ahead. Week seven is the Tyler Lockett game where DK Metcalf had a touchdown callback on a bogus holding call. Okay, they shut down the best job

against DK Metcalf. Yes, they did. You're not really helping your case right now. All right, go ahead. Well, I mean, again, tell me which of those teams. There's two teams

that I just named you. Three teams that I just named you that have legit number two wide receivers or a pair of wide receivers, right? Uh-huh. And then week nine was Miami, where one guy got hurt

and two guys got over 12 fantasy points. Yeah, but I mean, Parker didn't have that good of a game. My favorite thing about this discussion is that it shows like you could have, you can argue that they've given up 12 fantasy points to duos lots of times, but they've never given up 14 fantasy points to duos lots of times,

but they've never given up 14 fantasy points to duos. Yeah, but 12's not that good, though. And John Brown is ranked in the 20s, which is kind of the 12 to 14 point range. Yeah. I think you're... I'm playing devil's advocate. I want to be clear on that. I don't think I have the guts to sit John Brown, because you expect a lot of points in this game, right?

So, you know, you're open for shootout. And let's be honest, it might be John Brown who's better than Stefan Diggs because Patrick Peterson's been awesome. Can we at least throw that out there? I'm not saying this. Patrick Peterson's been really hot and cold. Lately, I think he's been real good, though.

So Peterson has said this. He said this to Prisco. And Pete relayed this to us going into the Seattle game. He does not like smaller, shifty, or wide receivers. I don't know a big receiver on the Buffalo side of things. This could be a bad game for him, bad matchup for him. He's going to make things uncomfortable for whoever he faces, but it's not going to be where he shuts down a bigger physical

guy like a DK Metcalf, like a Devante Parker. Those guys are tailor-made for what Patrick Peterson likes to do and be physical guys. Kind of feels like he might give up a long touchdown and get an interception in this game. Like, if he's facing Josh Allen, there could be opportunities for sure. Well, you're going to hear very shortly from Jacob Gibbs

on why this is a good game setting up anyway for Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs. One more ranking dispute. Is Christian Kirk still a dispute? I thought it was Hunter Henry. Well, what about Kirk? Yeah.

Cause I'd rather, it's still, I think I've got him in the thirties. So, okay. So Jamie's got him 16th and non 19th in PPR as of yesterday afternoon. Heath has him 27th in non PPR, but 35th in PPR Christian Kirk in this matchup against Buffalo Heath.

You're the low guy on Kirk. Let's remember 60 seconds guys. So 30 for Heath go. Yeah. I'm trying to come around on Christian Kirk. It just, it takes a little while for the projections to catch up. No,

I still think it's going to be hard for me to rank a guy too high who's not getting a lot of volume on a regular basis and his he's been awesome. His efficiency has been great and he does have eight targets each of the past two weeks and seven and three of four. He doesn't have a game all season with more than five catches

and the yardage has been really sporadic. So I'm generally going to be lower on the guys that are this reliant on touchdowns for fantasy production. His quarterback is awesome. You said it, three of the last four with at least seven targets. I don't know how much more you need to see from this guy to start to say, I'm just going to play him until it stops.

Yeah, he's great. I think he's in a very, very similar range to john brown um like right in that same tier where like the guys in that group that score touchdowns are going to be really good this week and the guys that don't probably won't well where are you ranking will fuller at this point because the target share is kind of the same um he's much much higher the The target share being kind of the same kind of froze me, but yeah, I guess it's, I mean,

it's not too different. He's got three games with more than five catches, but, but recently. Yeah, no, that's, that's,

that's true. The last couple of games for sure. Okay. We got two segments left. Then we'll get into the games. We've got the start-o-meter and a prerecorded segment from Jacob Gibbs. And we're going to play that right now. Jacob's going to give you

three of his favorite stats for Fantasy Week 10. Now, look, he's going to tell you about Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs. Were you going to sit them? No, but this could be helpful for DFS.

This could be helpful for prop bets, things like that. And I think just as football fans, you will appreciate that. I want to say the audio quality on this is not quite as good as we'd like.

Not terrible, but we'll get that. He likes, we'll get that. Who me? Didn't you say he likes Diggs and Helen? Yeah, he does.

And why would you say you're going to sit them? Oh no. I just meant like, he's not going to convince you to start them because you're already starting them. But like what? Sorry. Thank you for making me clarify that.

Uh, but, uh, yeah, like I said, DFS plays, things like that. Last week,

he had a great stat on Kirk Cousins, for example. And for more of these, listen to the Saturday bonus episode of Fantasy Football Today in five. Okay, here's Jacob Gibbs. What's up, FFT? This is Sportsline Fantasy analyst Jacob Gibbs, and I'm back with three more advanced stats for you heading into week 10. Stat number one, over the past two weeks, Jerry Judy has 396 air yards and 24 targets. That's insane. He's first in targets and air yards during that time. Judy gets the Raiders in week 10.

Vegas is bad against the pass, but what really has me excited for Judy and the Broncos in this spot is the Raiders' inability to create pressure. Vegas ranks 20th in pressure rate and they're 31st in blitz rate. This is crucial for Judy because Drew Locke has been the league's worst quarterback when under pressure. Locke is dead last in passer rating with blitz. He's completed just 40% of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt when under pressure over the last two seasons. Against a Raiders defense with a blitzer at below 20%, Locke should have plenty of time

to stand in and find Judy downfield in week 10. Stat number two. I know you hated Antonio Gibson owners, but JD McKissick is not going away. There's good news though, and that is that Washington is finding creative ways to get both backs on the field. 38% of McKissick's snaps over the past two games have come in the slot, which is up from 10% in the first six games. Moving him to the slot more often allows Washington to get both McKissick and Gibson on the field at the same time. McKissick had a career-high 83% snap rate last week, and Gibson was still on the field for nearly half of the plays.

McKissick's 14 targets last week were also a career high, and next up is a Detroit Lions defense that has allowed almost 14 DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs on receiving stats alone. Only the Packers have given up more receiving fantasy points to opposing running backs. With McKissick playing more in the slot, both he and Gibson are fantasy viable options against the Lions this week. And stat number three, the Arizona Cardinals rank in the top five in both man coverage use and press coverage use. That is great news for Josh Allen and Stephon Diggs. Allen ranks 22nd in the NFL in passer rating against zone coverage but is up to fifth against man coverage. Stephon

Diggs has averaged 7.8 yards per target for zone but 9.9 versus man. He's been targeted on 22% of his routes run versus zone, which is good, but it's nothing compared to his 32% rate when facing man coverage. Diggs is also second in the NFL in receiving yards against press coverage this season. He's been targeted on 30% of his routes versus press coverage, which is the highest rate among qualified receivers. The 56-point over-under in this game and the heavy use of man and press coverage by Arizona's defense both point toward a potential eruption spot for Allen and Diggs in Week 10. All right, that's all I got. Thanks for letting me share my stats with you today.

If you liked them, give me a follow on Twitter, at jgibbs underscore 23. I'll be tweeting out nerdy stats on there all week long. All right, thank you, Jacob. That's great stuff. He does an awesome job, and great follow on Twitter as well. So Jerry Judy, most air yards over the last two weeks, and Drew Locke, much, much worse under pressure.

That is not Vegas' forte. JD McKissick on the field a ton, including with Antonio Gibson playing out of the slot a lot and a great matchup against Detroit. And Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs set up for good things in this game. Let's go to the start-o-meter here. The last three games we're going to preview are Jacksonville at Green Bay, New England at Baltimore,

and Buffalo at Arizona. DJ Chark, DJ Chark start-o-meter. 12. 9. The number two Green Bay wide receiver. 2. 3, yeah. Oh, well, hold on.

Let me see if I can change your mind. Got to get my stat of the game here. The Jaguars are the worst ever, uh, in the last five games, they have allowed 84 yards or a touchdown to nine wide receivers in five games. Huh?

I mean, it, look, you'd have Alan Lazard coming off a long layoff and Marquez Valdez Gantling, who knows what he does. I mean, you know, it's just so hard to say, you know, trust these guys. Great DFS play. Great DFS play. Marquez Valdez Gantling can have a two touchdown game. And you know, that's the type of setup

you have for him. But I don't know how many people are redrafting to start. Sorry. No, that's that's okay i think that and this is just a possibility i i don't really look at the weather too much until sunday morning but i was on uh pick six podcast yesterday with will and he said that this game and the browns game are two games that could possibly be wind games again this week um so some just to. Like I said, I don't generally look at it too much until later in the weekend, but it's a possibility. Okay.

And that's pretty much it. Robert Tunyon. Jaguars are horrible against tight ends. Jeez. Four. Yeah. I mean, it's just been so hard to trust since Adams has been there.

Okay. Yeah. You know, I wish... I said the Jaguars were going to go. Oh, and 16, then they won their first game and then they've been just as bad as I thought. New England, New England, Baltimore. Yes. Well, one guy like I'd put on the start-o-meter that you might not think should be on the start-o-meter, but I kind of like Jamal Williams a little bit this week as a, as a flex option. Okay. Good stuff.

New England at Baltimore. Cam Newton, we already said to sit. Any Patriots running back? I would sit every Patriots player. I'd like to. Jacoby Myers is the best flex, maybe. Right. Yeah.

Unless, I mean, if Harris is out, then Burkhead has some appeal, but it sounds like he's going to play. And then we don't know Sonny Michel, but it's just a totally different setup from last week. Okay. Would you go with Jacoby Myers or Alan Lazard or Marquez Valdez-Scantling? Myers.

I would go with Myers in PPR, but I would go with those other guys in non-PPR. Would you start Myers over Darius Slayton? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Oh, then for Baltimore, Marquise Brown. Well, we'll talk about the running backs later

because if Ingram plays, then it's a mess. But Marquise Brown. Five. Four. How about Lamar Jackson? Nine. Okay. Mark Andrews makes me nervous.

Mark Andrews. Yeah. Oh, my gosh. Look, they have played every elite tight end, and they've done a good job. Good job. Well, lucky for Mark Andrews. He's not an elite tight end anymore.

I mean, Kelsey had 70 yards. We did three catches. Kittle had like 50 yards. Waller was terrible. None of them scored. That was a joke, but I do think Bill Belichick has bigger things to be concerned about

taking away in this game than Mark Andrews. Well, it's just their defense just takes away tight ends, and it carries over to Miami, too. Look at what the Dolphins have done. The system works. And the Lions, too, right? And the Lions, too.

It's a very fair point, yeah. Yeah. Okay. Not the Giants, though. Not the Giants. Not the Giants. Not the Titans. 25 combined PPR points from those three guys. Oh, well, okay.

So you starting any streamers over Mark Andrews? Austin Hooper and Dallas Goddard if you want to put them in that category. I like Jimmy Graham better than him in non-PPR because they're essentially the same guy. It's a touchdown dependent. Eric Ebron if he's still in that category. So yeah,

those guys I'm starting over Mark Andrews. And finally, Buffalo at Arizona. Buffalo's running back? Zach Moss. Yes, Zach Moss would be my favorite,

but he'd be a two. He's a six for me and non-PPR and a four in PPR. Yeah, a little bit. I don't even know. I should have probably

harped on this a little bit more, but Devin Singletary had, what, two carries last week, and Moss had, I think, nine. Not that he did a ton with them, but maybe we're starting to see something there. How about Kenyon Drake if he plays? We've seen it. I guess so, but the week before, they had the same amount

of carries. How about Kenyon Drake? I'm sorry. How about, yeah, Kenyon Drake if he plays? Five. Seven in non-PPR. Six in PPR. That's it. I mean, everything else is pretty simple, I think. We talked about Kirk.

We talked about Brown. No tight ends in this game. Beasley. They've had some troubles with slot receivers, by the way, those Cardinals. Cole Beasley? Two. Two. Two in non-PPR. I'd say four in PPR.

And you'll start the quarterbacks. And here we go to the games. Denver at Las Vegas. I think this game and I think maybe the Steelers game, a lot of tough calls in these ones. Your stat of the game is about the air yards. You've heard enough about it. So Denver likes to air it out.

You don't get a lot of pressure from the Raiders. They have the fourth worst passer rating on attempts of 20 plus yards downfield, the Raiders. So you think that would bode well for Judy and Locke and maybe even Tim Patrick. Locke, we already debated. You want to hear the 60 second ranking dispute? Jamie's got him, I think 12th

and I'll get the updated rankings. Heath around 20th, worried about the non-garbage time. Is it easy to just sit the Denver running backs? Sit the running backs? I don't think it's easy to. I think they're borderline starters flex. I like Lindsey better than Gordon in non-PPR and Gordon better than Lindsey in PPR,

but they're both outside my top 24, and that's saying something, given what the running back landscape looks like this week. But their playing time is close to even. It was a little bit different last week. But, I mean, they're using Lindsey a little bit more on passing downs last week, or at least they did. He had more targets than Gordon.

So it's just a very frustrating experience right now. It was so weird. I realized this, like, Wednesday, that Melvin Gordon actually had more yards and fantasy points than Phillip Lindsey last week because it felt like, and touch-wise, Phillip Lindsey kind of took over and they finally gave the ball to Phillip Lindsey and

he did nothing. They're flexes, but it's going to be hard to sit him. Gordon, the last two weeks, has just been miserable with Lindsey playing the full game. It's taken a Lindsey injury for Gordon to be good. Yeah. By the way, I realize I did not do any of the news and notes,

so there's really not much that you probably don't know. David Johnson, unlikely to play. McCaffrey, unlikely to play. Mostert and Coleman are out this week. Chris Carson status unclear. Joe Mixon was limited in practice. Nick Chubb is not a lock to play this week. Kenyon Drake did return to practice. Damianon was limited in practice. Nick Chubb is not a lock to play this week. Kenyon Drake did return to practice.

Damian Harris was limited in practice. Mark Ingram sounds like he's trending in the right direction. Justin Jackson is probably not going to practice this week, so I can't imagine. It's not looking good for Justin Jackson, so I will ask you in one second, Kalen Balazs or a Broncos running

back, but give me one minute. LaMichael P. Ryan might be the featured back rest of the season, will be the featured back rest of the season for the Jets. They're on by this week,

but they're going to give him some run. That's a report. That's a report. Okay, yeah, that's a report. They're going to reportedly give LaMichael P. Ryan an opportunity here,

so you might want to stash him. Preston Williams is on IR out at least three games. Lamar Jackson said that defenses no Baltimore's plays. So that's interesting. They're calling him out at the line of scrimmage, basically. And Mikko Hardman's on the

reserve COVID list. It's hard to say. Run! Pass to Marquise Brown. I can tell you the Vikings plays too. It's run! They're giving it to Cook! Alright, so Kalen Balazs or a Denver running back?ver running back uh denver running back both denver running backs yeah okay how about a dolphins running back or a denver

running back both denver running back yep god running back sucks this week so i i know you're excited about Jerry Judy, right? Yeah. Heath? I'm excited about him long-term. He's a high-end number three, low-end number two type wide receiver. I mean, the dude's got 24 targets in two games. It's pretty clear that the door has been open, and they're not closing anytime soon. The Chargers defense is so bad. The Chargers defense is so bad. The Falcons defense is so bad.

Those are the last two matchups for Jerry Judy. Does that matter? His quarterback threw 89 passes in those two games. Yeah, he's thrown 129 passes in the last three. Yeah. I mean, maybe that'll just... I think it kind of comes back to the same discussion

we had about luck. How quickly does this game get out of hand? Well, the Raiders score more points per game, I think, than both the Falcons and the Chargers. Yeah, this is going to be...

I mean, I'm honestly shocked that the over-under is 49. This feels like it should be close to 60. And Tim Patrick has a higher ADOT than Jerry Judy. He's also a downfield guy. And he leads Denver at the same time. He leads the team with four targets inside the 10-yard line. Can we call Tim Patrick a sleeper?

A thousand percent. I mean, yeah, I just think he's a number three wide receiver. He's played, uh, four healthy games. And in those four healthy,

his last four healthy games, he's got a touchdown or a hundred yards receiving normal. I, um, I, one of the things I've altered in the, from the projections to my rankings this week that maybe I shouldn't have. Um, I actually, in the projections had Tim rankings this week that maybe I shouldn't have. I actually, in the projections,

had Tim Patrick ahead of Mike Evans and DJ Moore. I moved those guys ahead because that seems silly. But I think he's in that same range as those guys. Okay. And KJ Hamler, no, right? I mean, if you're desperate, he just had, what, double-digit targets? Yeah, he had 10.

It was his first game with more than... Well, he had six targets in his previous three games combined, but he did have 10 last week at Atlanta. Yeah. They're starting to ramp him up. I mean, they got to figure out what they have. Okay.

Okay, Noah Fant is top seven. The Raiders allow the 10th fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but they haven't really faced a ton. Most of the good ones they've faced have done pretty well. I don't know. Are we giving Noah Phan

a little bit too long of a leash? Do I have to say the stat again? Yes. Noah Phan is currently fifth amongst tight ends in fantasy points per game. If we're giving him too long of a leash, then we're giving the position

too long of a leash, and it're giving the position too long of a leash and it just shouldn't exist anymore. But in his last five games, he scored in weeks one and two. Since then, he has 211 yards and no touchdowns in five games. Probably better than both Mark Andrews and Hunter Henry over that stretch. He's been banged up too.

So factor that in. And they just lost Albert O, so maybe that helps him. Yeah, it should. Okay, fine. Start them. Derek Carr. This is an interesting one. Start us at Derek Carr. By the way, the Raiders are not a high-passing team. They throw the seventh fewest passes per game.

He has three games at home this year, which seems a little weird that they only play three at home in a new stadium. He's averaging 24 fantasy points per game in those three. So he likes his new surroundings. I think the Denver defense is not very good. You know, you can certainly look at the reason why Drew Locke is throwing the ball a lot is because they're chasing points because they stink. So, you know, Carr is to me one of the more flukiest quarterbacks that we've seen

because it's a big play to Nelson Aguilar. It's a big play to Henry Ruggs early in the season. You know, it's not a lot of volume for him like you love to see from some of these fantasy quarterbacks. And that's kind of played itself out with his numbers the last few weeks. You know, he's been under 20 fantasy points, but I think he's in that low end starting range with Locke, with Tua, with Roethlisberger, you know, guys that you may have some questions about or volume concerns about, but it's a good matchup, and his numbers at home suggest he's a decent play.

It's actually a good matchup, I guess, because they've given up at least 20 fantasy points to every quarterback except for Cam Newton, and at least 22 to every quarterback except for Cam Newton and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes scored 14 points. I said at least 22

to every quarterback except Patrick Mahomes and Cam Newton. I thought you said just Newton. Mahomes was the snow game. It's only 23 pass attempts. Yeah, not bad. Josh Jacobs is a must start. Let me give you some more.

Carr or Roethlisberger? I'll go Ben right now, but I want to wait and see, you know, at practice with the knee injury. I would go with Carr, but it's really, really close. Okay. Carr or Locke?

I'd go Carr. Carr for Heath, Locke for Jamie. And Josh Jacobs is a must start nelson agalor or uh bronco okay rank the receivers how about that broncos and raiders judy one patrick two agalor three renfro four hamler five yeah i'd probably go renfro over agalor but other than that, and I think Judy and Patrick are in a different range than Renfro and Aguilar.

Okay. Aguilar, obviously, he's a big play guy. So we'll see if it happens. Doesn't get a ton of targets. And start Darren Waller. And that is the end of that game. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh. By the way, do we know if the Steelers are getting Avery Williamson this week?

I would think so. He should be eligible to play, yes. Right? Maybe that'll help their run defense a little bit. Got him in a trade with the Jets, and he had to sit out last week. So, repeat stat of the game. Gave this one last week, but we'll update it now. Against Cincinnati, 10 of the last 11 receivers with six or more targets had either

86 yards or a touchdown. That's unbelievable. That's probably all three Pittsburgh wide receivers, six or more targets, 86 yards or a touchdown, 10 of the last 11 against Cincinnati. All right. What do you think about all of the receivers in this game? How many of them are top 36, I guess, or wide receivers one through three? On both sides or just... Yeah, all of them. There are six guys to talk about here.

I'd be a little bit nervous about A.J. Green just based on his body of work. And T. Higgins is on the cusp. He's the fifth guy for me. But I would start all three Steelers receivers if you can. It depends on what you need. And format matters. Claypool better in non-PPR than PPR.

But Deontay Johnson, for me, better in PPR than non-PPR. But I think they're all in play. It's one of those games where, you know, I think that the Bengals receivers will get the yards. I don't know how many touchdowns they'll score. But, I mean, the Steelers receivers are always going to be in a tricky scenario. You know, I think it's just a matter of what you have on your fantasy team. Yeah. Boyd, Juju, and Claypool, I'm starting.

Higgins and Deontay Johnson are number threes or flexes. And I, I don't really trust AJ green. Like I can see, what'd you say? 86 yards or touchdown. Yeah. Like I can see Claypool scoring.

I could see Juju and Deontay Johnson, both above 80 receiving yards. You know, it's just, that's the nature of how their year has gone. You know, one guy will score maybe two, you know,

and then the other two guys will get right around 80 or 90 yards. Well, the Steelers are seven and a half point favorites. And you, for the sake of Juju, for the sake of the Steelers passing game, you want the game to be close.

Like last, last week, Roethlisberger ended up throwing a lot more than we thought he would. And the Bengals, you know, look, they're two, five and one, but they've only lost one game by more than five points.

They got blown out at Baltimore 27-3. They've lost two games to Cleveland by a combined eight points. They lost by four at Indianapolis. They beat Tennessee. Is Pittsburgh better than all those teams? Probably. They're undefeated. But you hope they can keep it close, you know?

You hope they can keep it close. How would you compare the wide receivers in this game to like Giovanni Bernard, Mike Davis, Jarek McKinnon, these replacement running backs we talked about? I think the problem is, is that these receivers, for the most part, are better PPR options than they are non PPR options just because they don't score a lot of touchdowns. And those running backs are better PPR options than they are non-PPR options just because they don't score a lot of touchdowns. And those running backs are better PPR options than they are non-PPR options. So if you're telling me that Mike Davis and Geo

are probably going to be north of five receptions, which I think they will, I'm going to lean toward those guys because their carries will supersede what those receivers do. Because the touchdowns are the thing you're chasing with those guys and they just don't score a lot. Yeah.

I think Davis and geo are ahead of all the receivers. McKinnon is kind of right in that. I got to start Boyd over McKinnon and maybe Juju too, but he's right in that range. Okay. I'm with you. Yeah. Joe Burrow is a sit and like,

he's not awful though. Okay. But, but you do have Burrow is a sit. He's not awful, though. Okay, but you do have him outside your top 20. No. Again, refresh. Okay, Joe Burrow, you have fourth. No, 17th. I think I have him 19th. And 19th for...

I got him at 21. You got him 19 now? Okay, 19. We'll move up to 19. See, this is why you're great at your job, because you prepare ahead of time so well. Too far ahead. And then we screw you.

Sorry. Joe Mixon. Do you almost like Geo better than Mixon? If Mixon's out, do you like Geo better than Mixon if both play? Take the word almost away. You do. In this particular game,

I would. Because this is the type of game where they need him. Where they need who? They need a guy like Geo. Well, just to clarify, if Mixon plays,

you don't like Geo better than Mixon. Correct. You like Geo better if Mixon's out. This just feels like a game where they're chasing points, they're throwing all over the place, and that's typically where they use Gio

more. So you'd rather just have the ability to start Gio as opposed to being in this stuck situation where a guy with a foot injury may come in, may get hurt, and then you're screwed. And I think this is like three years now, Giovanni

Bernard without Joe Mixon is better for fantasy than Joe Mix now. Giovanni Bernard without Joe Mixon is better for fantasy than Joe Mixon with Giovanni Bernard because Gio doesn't have to share the passing game work as much as Mixon does. It'd be nice if Gio took a little sabbatical and we could see Joe Mixon. I think we saw that for a little while, didn't we? It was really great.

Yeah, his last three games. They just didn't let him play. Last three games, Mixon had six, six, and two catches catches it's interesting uh just to sort of the tie-in with the injury aaron jones said yesterday that he appreciated the packers saving him from himself and i wonder how fantasy managers feel about that scenario knowing that you lose a guy for a couple of weeks because he's hurt as opposed to re-injuring himself and losing him for a significant stretch yeah not that it's guaranteed you would lose him for the significant stretch but if i were to tell you right now this player x is going to miss two weeks or three weeks but you have him for six

games after that or eight games after that or ten games after that would you sign up for that yeah i'd rather that than him play hurt but but again there's also the scenario of you know playing through the injury and being okay well i don't know i mean it could go either way it's a tricky way yeah all right so tell me so let me pick this up here uh joe mixon is going to be like mike davis or joe mixon mike davis and ppr for sure it's closer than none yeah mike davis uh joe mixon or james robinson that's easy james Mike Davis. Joe Mixon or James Robinson. That's easy, James Robinson. Joe Mixon or Juju Smith-Schuster.

I would take Juju and PPR. Yep. Okay. Closer than none. The wide receivers, we kind of talked about them. Tyler Boyd is a must-start guy. And Higgins, a number three receiver. And Citrus Sample.

Ben Roethlisberger is well let's see he yesterday he was 13th or 14th in the rankings today he's still 13th or 14th in the hooray he hasn't moved so he's he's close to car he's close to lock he's a little ahead of lock for jamie's way ahead of lock for uh for heath how about carson wentz or ben rethlisberger? Wentz. I think I'd go Ben, but they're right in the same, like very, very close. But I'm surprised by that because, and the lock thing surprises me too, because I usually think that you lean toward volume. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I don't have a huge separation

in the past attempts for Wentz and Roethlisberger. He's not been quite as pass heavy when Sanders has been healthy as it, as he has been when it's just Boston, Scott and Corey Clement. So he goes from what? 45 to 40. Yeah. I think I've got about 37.

All right. Moving on. You are hoping for a good game for Ben. You're hoping for the Bengals to keep this close. Because what we saw last week was ridiculous. Nobody expected Roethlisberger to have to be in that situation because Dallas was so bad. And they were, you know, third straight road game. Dallas came out with a good game plan, scored.

And here we go. Steelers win a dogfight. James Connors, top 10 in both formats. I think we've covered these wide receivers. Do both of you have Deontay Johnson last in this group? I know Heath does. I have Johnson ahead of Claypool and PPR. I just think his targets are usually more than Claypool's,

but he's just having a hard time finding the end zone for the most part. And Jamie's a lot higher on Eric Ebron, at least in non-PPR, than Heath is. He's pretty close in PPR. Dave's got Ebron top five in both formats. Heath has Ebron as a low-end starter, but you're starting him. He's top five for me, too. He's fourth. Okay, even in PPR Dave's got Ebron top five in both formats. Heath has Ebron is like a low end starter, but you're starting him out five for me to stop. He's fourth. Okay.

Even in PPR. Yeah. Jeez. Okay. Got a man. Sorry. The rankings changed a lot this week. Cincinnati allows the second most fantasy points to tight ends.

Pittsburgh DSD. I work my friend while you're asleep. I'm updating my rankings. I'm not even going to respond to that. Houston at Cleveland. Okay. You and I are both up very late. We could have some late night texts.

We usually do. I actually did update my rankings while you were sleeping, but it was at 6 a.m. this morning. That was just before I woke up. All right, Houston at Cleveland. Welcome to football season, Houston at Cleveland. Welcome to football season. Houston at Cleveland. Stat of the game.

A running back has scored 12 or more non-PPR fantasy points, 14 or more PPR fantasy points. Oh, sorry. Let me correct it. A running back has scored 12 or more non-PPR fantasy points in five straight games against Cleveland. 14 or more PPR in four or five games against Cleveland. That would be Zeke, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner,

Gio Bernard, Josh Jacobs. Duke Johnson, optimistic. Duke Johnson over Joe Mixon, right? You tell me. Yes? Okay. So start Duke Johnson. Start Deshaun Watson.

Easy to say start both wide receivers here. The Browns are terrible against wide receivers. Fifth most allowed. Start Deshaun Watson. Easy to say, start both wide receivers here. The Browns are terrible against wide receivers. Fifth most allowed. Yes, yes, yes. Okay, start them both. Houston tight end? No, no, no. Thank you.

All right, let's talk about Baker Mayfield here. I would tell you where he is in the rankings, but I don't know. So let's see what they are now. I've got him, I think, 15th or 16th. All right, 18th for Jamie, 24th for Dave, and let's say what they are now i've got him i think 15th or 16th all right 18th for jamie 24th for dave and let's say 15th for heath so yeah a little worried about the volume here if nick chubb plays heath they're not are you worried about that i i am especially if the wind's a problem he'll go down even more but that the one thing i would say is like, this should be about as good as it gets for Baker Mayfield because they are

facing a bad defense that it also has an offense that should keep them in a position where they have to keep scoring. And so if like, this is about as high as I think I've ranked Baker Mayfield all season long, it's still not in the top 12. I would rather not start him, but I don't think, I think you'll have a decent game. Okay.

And Jamie, not as much. I mean, it's volume for him. You know, that's the thing. His best game this season, his best game of his career was against the Bengals, and he was under 30 pass attempts in that game. That's what he is.

You know, it's going to be a situation where he needs touchdowns. He needs his receivers to make some plays after the catch. And this is one of those scenarios where the matchup is fantastic. I mean, he could have another five touchdown game. It wouldn't shock me like he did against the Bengals in the game where Beckham got hurt. And now he's getting not only Chubb back, who's going to threaten the defense to soften things up, but he's getting not only chub back who's gonna you know threaten the defense to soften things up but he's getting hoover back too you know hopefully landry's healthy you know there there's a lot to like about baker aside from that big thing which is hey i know what the browns plays are too yeah run run run run hey maybe throw run run run you know so uh i'll send jj jj wada text uh telling them what they're gonna do um but it's uh going to do. But he's a decent streaming option

if you pick them up off a bye week. But it wouldn't shock me if somebody like Nick Foles outscores him because Foles is going to throw all 45 times against him. Oh, that's exactly the decision I have to make, Jamie. That's exactly my 2QB. I would play Baker. I'm hoping that I'm now I'm hoping for a win

so I can easily make that decision instead of acting as a go-ahead. I'm looking at Kevin Roth's story on rotor grinders, his early weather report, and he has it at 19 miles an hour as of now. But also looks like it could be some potential rain. All right, to the Cleveland running backs, Nick Chubb is the start if he plays.

Kareem Hunt is an obvious start if Chubb doesn't play. If Chubb does play, though, I know you're going to say start Kareem Hunt, but who would you start him over? Almost everyone. Okay. I would start him over Nick Chubb. How about...

I would as well. I would in PPR. Non-PPR, I'd go back to Chubb. How about Brandon Cooks or Kareem Hunt? Kareem Hunt. Yeah, Hunt. I have both guys top 10 and just flipped in each format. Yeah.

This might be the worst rushing defense in football. They give up the most rushing yards to running backs, the most yards per carry to running backs. They're terrible. Bad defense. Cleveland wide receivers, Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins. Higgins only rostered in 37% of leagues. He did have 100 yards two games ago.

Any interest here, Heath, in Landry or Higgins? Landry is a low-end number two, high-end number three. If he gets the same target that he did in the last game before the bye, then you're going to feel pretty good about starting him rest of the season, I think. Higgins is a boom bust flex. It would be interesting to see. We didn't really see this offense without Beckham in normal conditions.

So it would be interesting to see with Hooper back what the target breakdown is. You did get a good enough sample size, though, because Beckham got hurt early enough in that Bengals game to see what could happen. But yes, in terms of not knowing what the script is, not knowing what the game plan is without Beckham, you're 100% right. I think the one thing about Higgins is he's not necessarily a beat-the-waiver-wire guy,

but he is a guy, if you're stuck, to go look at because if you're going to buy into Baker, I think Higgins is going to have to have some semblance of production here. So it's not, because Landry is he's not scoring have to have some semblance of production here. Because Landry is not scoring touchdowns. We'll see if that changes. But it's not like Beckham was scoring touchdowns.

It's not like the receivers were carrying Baker. In the game where Baker had success, it was tight ends, but I think he's going to have to have somebody step up. Higgins was that guy in that Bengals game. Landry, for the record, does have at least one almost touchdown. And he has a passing touchdown. And he you know, Higgins was that guy in that Bengals game. Landry, for the record, does have one, at least one, almost touchdown. And he has a passing touchdown.

And he has a passing touchdown. Texans give up the six most fantasy points to wide receivers. In four games, they've allowed 100 yards or a touchdown or both to multiple wide receivers. I don't think that's going to happen, but there's a good chance that at least one of these guys has a good game. You know, it's such a good matchup and such a bad defense. And Austin Hooper is top 10.

I think he's top 5 for Dave. You're going to start Austin Hooper. Is Bradley Roby playing? Have we seen him practice for it? Probably. I mean, he was healthy. He just got suspended. So I would assume he's playing. He and Golden Tate will be back after serving their suspensions. I don't know. The update we have is expected to play in Week 10.

Cool. All right, next up, Chargers at Dolphins. Stat of the game. A running back has scored 11 or more non-PPR fantasy points. This is very similar to the last stat of the game. 11 or more non-PPR, 13 or more PPR fantasy points in six straight games against the

Chargers. They have a terrible run defense. Mike Davis, Ronald Jones, Alvin Kamara, James Robinson, Phillip Lindsay, Devante Booker, Josh Jacobs. All of these guys reach that 11 or more non-PPR, 13 or more PPR fantasy points. So,

does that mean anything to you guys? Is there any Dolph dolphins running back we can confidently go with uh first of all how do you pronounce um the the guy's name because i said it wrong and i won't say it again on another podcast yesterday who sel selvin ahmed see i i said it that way and then salvin said it very differently i I have no idea. I honestly don't know. I should know and I don't. How did the host say it? I'm not even going to try and say it because it may be incorrect as well.

Okay. In any event, they legit have four guys that could be involved here if Matt Breida plays. Because you know Jordan Howard is going to probably get short yardage work. So he's going to be the guy that can score touchdowns.

Okay, yeah, we butchered it. It's Savan Ahmed. Yeah, that's the way they say it. There you go. Savan Ahmed. Sorry. I'm sorry about that. I should have thought about it. Yeah, no. I feel the same way. He was the guy who played the most last week. And then you have

DeAndre Washington, and we just don't know what's going to happen there. The guy that they traded for. So he's eligible to play. So let's assume Breida doesn't play to take him out of the equation. I don't know which of the three guys are going to be the best. I would rank Ahmed the highest because he played the most of the first game without Myles Gaskin. But Jordan Howard is going to take a touchdown away it's just you know that's the frustrating part of this so it's a backfield you probably want to avoid how about the chargers backfield heath yeah say it say it just say the guy rewind all those things um kaylin bellage i suppose is currently the best chargers running back. I don't have much interest. I mean, he's sitting around 30 in my rankings.

I expect, assuming that Troy Maine Pope remains out, assuming that Justin Jackson remains out, that Blige is going to get like 60% of the touches and Joshua Kelly is going to get the other 30%. It's going to be ugly. This is a good Dolphins defense. It's a bad matchup. It's uncertain touch share. It's uncertain offensive

line. It's uncertain quality of running back. I'd rather not, but I like Kalen Balazs better than any Dolphins running back. Now, Troy Main Pope, thanks to Ben Trager, expected to play. Yeah, I would actually pick up Troy Main Pope. There you go. We don't have it ranked that way

because we typically keep guys out that have missed the week prior unless there's certainty they're going to play. Once Pope is cleared to play, and it sounds like that's going to be the case, I will have him as the highest Chargers-ranked running back. He will be the highest-ranked running back in this game for me,

but none of the running backs in this game will be in my top 30. Right. This is more of a desperation flex play because like he said, the matchup against Miami is not easy. Chase Edmonds just showed us that. They gave him as many carries

as a running back could potentially have for two games worth. And he had a struggle. So I think if you're just looking at it, is the creativity of the Chargers offense and what they've been doing with their running backs because they've had success without Austin Eckler. The Saints game, Justin Jackson

was solid. Nearly 100 total yards. The Jaguars game, I guess, not so much. Whoever they played after the Jaguars game, that was the Troy Main Pope and Justin Jackson game where both guys went off. Then last week, Kalen Blasch had a good game.

There's a guy that will be in the Troy Maine Pope and Justin Jackson Gamer, both guys went off. And then last week, you know, Kalen Balazs had a good game, you know? So there's a guy that will be in the flex range. For me, it would be Pope. Because if Pope plays, they may keep Kalen Balazs on the practice spot. There's no guarantee they have to elevate him. Okay, just to wrap it up, I think we've talked enough about this.

To be clear, the Dolphins did a really good job against Chase Edmonds, but they had had going into that game a pretty bad run defense. Like advanced metrics would have said it. Advanced metrics would have said it. Conventional metrics would have said it. You think it should be getting a little bit better, but they got good personnel. But it had not been a tough matchup.

Edmonds really disappointed. Okay, so Justin... Yeah, just a bit. Justin Herbert is top seven. I just don't see how you can sit him. He doesn't get blitzed a lot, and the Dolphins are one of the most blitz-heavy teams in the NFL. However, the Bucs are the most blitz-heavy team in the NFL,

and he lit them up. Keenan Allen is a start. Mike Williams, you guys have as a number four wide receiver. I was a little confused by that. He's been really good three of the last four games. Heath, why so low on Mike Williams? I think it's still just, for me, uncertainty about target volume

and not a great matchup. Okay. He's probably getting Xavier Howard, and Howard made things uncomfortable for DeAndre Hopkins last week. And the refs, but yes. Got a lot of pass interferences, but he was great.

This is a good secondary when they're healthy, and they've been healthy now for the last several weeks. So I think Mike Williams is a guy you can get away from. Hunter Henry, big rankings dispute here. Let me see the updated rankings. As of yesterday, it was like seven spots. All right, Henry in PPR, 13th for Jamie, 14th for Dave, 5th for Heath.

All right, Heath Dave fifth for Heath. All right, Heath, go for it. Like that's, that's how I feel about Hunter Henry. I just, it's so hard to believe that Justin Herbert can be the best rookie quarterback ever.

And Hunter Henry can get seven targets per game and somehow not score any fantasy points. Um, and I just, I haven't totally bought into that. He is right. It wouldn't be that difficult for me to drop him down to ninth, possibly. But I'm just going to keep betting on the targets

and Justin Herbert eventually connecting with him. Let me ask you just a comparison, because I think the targets probably the last four games are very close. Where do you have Jimmy Graham ranked? Two spots behind Henry. Like they are in a very, very similar.

The difference in their projection is less than a quarter of a point. So I think it's a coin flip between those two guys. And then Hooper and Goddard. Oh, yeah. Hooper's right behind Graham. Goddard, I'm a little bit more leery of

just because of how the shake the rest off game. I'd like to make sure that all the rest is off now because he wasn't even used in his first game back. Yeah. Jamie, you have Mike Kosicki one spot ahead of, of Henry and neither have been very productive. Kosicki's only had like two games. I'm going with the hope of matchups better for Kosicki against the chargers

than it is for Henry against the dolphins and the loss of Preston Williams. I mean, I'm just hoping that it's, it's going to help Kosicki. So it's, I have no problem. And I mean, I'm just hoping that it's going to help Koseki. So I have no problem, and I would probably do this. And I may switch it, you know, because I think it's probably safer to go with Henry

because this is more of a hope than it is a certainty because we just haven't seen Koseki used. All right, finishing up here with the Dolphins. Tua is 14th for Jamie, 13th for Dave, and 19th for Heath. Would you start Tua over Drew Locke this week? I would. No, I like Locke better. Would you start Tua or Derek Carr?

Tua. Carr. Would you start Tua or Mayfield? Tua. Mayfield. Tua or Tannehill? Tua. Tannehill. to a um mayfield to our tannahill to a tannahill i don't think he's gonna ask everyone one guy starter sit davante parker yes stardom who's a sleeper wide receiver if with preston williams out you can grant yeah i think he might be their only other receiver dolphins dst is top 12 all

right three games i wonder if they regret that Isaiah Ford trade now. Maybe. Three games, 10 minutes. Here we go. Jacksonville at Green Bay. Start Rodgers. Start Robinson. Start Jones.

Start Adams. DJ Chark or... Okay, yeah, we'll start him. But DJ Chark or the Texans guys? Fuller, Chark, Cooks for me. I think that may be exactly how. I know Fuller's ahead of him. Cooks was the one I wasn't.

Yeah, I've got it like literally 16, 17, 18. Fuller, Chark, Cooks. And how about Chark or let's do some running backs. Chark or Joe Mixon? Chark or let's do some running backs. Chark or Joe Mixon? Chark. Chark in non-PPR. Chark in PPR, Mixon non-PPR. Okay.

Heath has Tunyon 12th, 13th, I think, in PPR. And Jamie's got him like 18th. I already talked about. He's around 15. He's around 15. He's around 15. 16. Okay, I see. There you go.

I already talked about Alan Lazard and why he could have a good game. Where Mark was about this scantling. We'll call them DFS flyers. But the Jaguars, again, it's nine wide receivers in their last five games. What the hell was it? It was a lot.

Have done really well on that. 84 yards. 84 yards for touchdown. Is this the 21 days? Does it expire this week? That's a good question. I don't know. Let me check.

Okay. That's that game. Packers DST or Dolphins DST? You said Packers or Dolphins? Yeah. I would go Packers. Yeah yeah i think so too okay packers or ravens ravens right speaking of which baltimore at new england oh here's the oh i like this stat of the game. Number one stat of the game. New England has allowed 92 or more yards

to a wide receiver in four straight games. Tim Patrick, Brandon Ayuk, Stefan Diggs, and Brashad Perryman. They all had seven to nine targets, which is asking a lot for Marquise Brown. He only has two games with more than six targets, but Stefan Gilmore also missed two of those games, but it's 92 or more yards to a wide receiver

in four straight games against New England. So there's that. And stat of the game number two is just about how good the Patriots have been against tight ends. We already talked about that. So yeah, I mean, Marquise Brown, Jamie, I have to start him. But who should I start over him if I had other options?

Should I start Jacoby Myers over Marquise Brown? I would not. I just think there's... He's hopefully a better version of Marquise Valdez-Scanley at this point. He's a lesser version of Will Fuller and Brandon

Cooks and DJ Shark, and I know that's not saying much, but the typical volume that you like is just not there for him, but the matchup is, is, is not bad at all. If Gilmore doesn't play, but it's,

it's, it's all a matter of, you know, are they going to give him an opportunity to make some plays? So primetime game, you know, I could see him have a strong performance, but he's a number three receiver.

You know, you just have to treat him as, as such. He's not a must start. He's not a must sit. He's just kind of in that gray area that depends on what your team has. So the Patriots are easy.

Get away from the Patriots. We were talking about it on Tuesday's Waiver Wire show. If you want maybe 10, 11 points from Jacoby Myers, that's what he had first two games. Maybe it was like 11 or 12 PPR fantasy points. Yeah, that's more realistic than the big game he had last week against the Jets. But for the Ravens, how... Just keep in mind something with Jacoby Myers, though,

because Nikhil Harry's practicing coming back from the concussion, and Isaiah Ford is eligible to play. So while Myers should be the best of that group, it would not surprise me if those other guys just make it a very uncomfortable thing for Jacoby Myers' fantasy managers because you're starting him after what he is. And he's projected very highly on our site.

I think he's projected for 12 PPR points. You know, so given the matchup, that to me is high. He's the only wide receiver that Cam Newton seems to have had any chemistry with, though. They are pretty much in sync. For sure. For sure. But again, you know, if the Ravens are going to take him away, to whatever extent they try to take him away, whether it's, you know, Humphrey or Peters or whatever, Cam is going

to have to start to look at other guys. He's still through to Demir Bird. He's still through to you know... Well, no, he didn't throw to anybody else. No, he doesn't. I think Nikhil Harry is not getting a ton of targets when he plays. Nikhil Harry hasn't played in like a month. I know, but I'm saying... I know. But he wasn't getting a ton of targets.

I don't think those guys have played together since the Seattle game or the Raiders game. Okay. Marlon Humphrey, by the way, is off the COVID list, so he should play this weekend. He's probably going to cover. Ravens did announce that they had another positive test this morning. We don't know who that was yet, but they also said there were no high-risk contacts. So I guess it'll only be one person going on a list. Okay.

Why are you guys so confident in Lamar Jackson? I mean, the Patriots aren't good and he's typically, you know, gives you the rushing floor. So you start there. It's more just the Patriots aren't good. Okay.

It's probably also some FOMO. Right. Primetime game. Put on a show, Ravens. He has scored 15 to 19 points in five of eight games. It is scary, but the Patriots, I say this every week, they give up the most passing yards per attempt in the NFL. And let's talk, give me the Ravens running backs, Heath, if Ingram plays

and if he doesn't. If Ingram plays, I just don't want any part of it, really. I think I'd probably still have Dobbins ranked the highest. I would have Ingram ahead of Edwards. None of them would be in my top 25. If

Ingram doesn't play, then I like Dobbins as a number two running back and Edwards as a high-end flex or maybe a low-end number two and non-PPR. Here's what I would do if I was... I want to just see what his roster percentage is. Gus Edwards' roster percentage right now is 52%. If you see that Ingram practices again today, I would drop Gus Edwards for the two following running backs.

One would be LaMichael Pirine, just to see what happens coming off their bye week. And the other would be Troy Maine Pope, just in case Justin Jackson in this absence lingers and Pope becomes the better of the non-Austin Eckler guys. Okay. And it's worth noting, by the way, that they basically played three games in a row without Ingram.

He got hurt in one of them. And Gus Edwards has a touchdown in every game and J.K. Dobbins does not have a touchdown. So I don't know. More likely to happen, though, is Dobbins continues to play close to what his role is with Ingram. Oh yeah, if Ingram

plays, I get that. But if Ingram doesn't play, I don't know why we would rank Dobbins ahead of Edwards. It's the ceiling versus the floor. If Edwards doesn't score, you're screwed. Both of them. They both have done the same thing in the three games. Two pretty't score, you're screwed. Both of them. I mean, they both have done the same thing

in the three games. Two pretty bad games and one great game in terms of rushing yards. I throw out the game Ingram got hurt. I mean, they've also faced the Eagles, the Steelers, and the Colts. Yeah, the Patriots stink. They are so bad against the run. Phil Plinsey,

Jeff Wilson, Michael Hastie, the Bills running backs, they ran all over the Patriots. All right, that's it for that game. One more game. Buffalo at Arizona. We spent a lot of time talking about Christian Kirk

and John Brown, so please rewind to the 60-second ranking disputes if you want to hear that. And Josh Allen's top five, Kyler Murray is number one for everyone. Is there anything we didn't cover

in this game? And if you go to the Stardome Meter segment, we talked a lot about the running backs in this game. But Heath, give me the running backs for Arizona with and without Kenyon Drake. If Kenyon Drake's out, I'm going right back to Chase Edmonds as a must-start running back. Not holding last week against him at all.

If Drake's in, then Edmonds is more of a PPR flex, and Drake is a low-end number two or a high-end flex in that 20 to 25 range of running backs. I would start Edmonds over both Broncos running backs in PPR. You're saying if Drake plays. If Drake plays, is Kenyon Drake the best running back in this game? Is he better than Zach Moss? Yeah.

I would play Moss over Drake in non-PPR. In non-PPR? But Drake doesn't catch passes. Neither does Moss, though. And I think the likelihood of Drake still with one or two catches is, for me, better than Moss. Now, you know what? I'd probably rank Drake over Moss in non-PPR, too.

Okay. Okay. Yeah. I mean, Drake, this, the bills run defense is not very good. So this might actually be a good opportunity for Kenyan Drake. If he's going to go back to his role,

get 16 carries or so. 18. I mean, that's kind of what it was. Yeah. And that, you know, might not be that bad.

I'd like for him to sit though. That'd be, that'd be wonderful. All right, everybody. Thanks so much for listening. We got the NFC. How are we all in so many leagues together and we all have Chase Edmonds?

I only have him in one league. And I'm going to get screwed because I have to start Jonathan Taylor. I'll tell you what. If Chase Edmonds, if Kenyon Drake is out, you guys might not agree with this. I'm going to play Chase Edmonds

over Mike Davis in a PPR league. I would too. Okay, good. Thank you. Thanks for listening, everybody. What's the format with Taylor and Edmund? PPR. I'd still play Edmund. There's

not enough there. There's just not enough work. Taylor could be on the bench for half the game. I haven't made that decision yet. Going right down to the gun. Maybe y'all can help me out today on Twitch. We'll talk to you at 4 p.m. Eastern. You're on FFT today, buddy.

I am. Make sure you watch Fantasy Football today, noon Eastern. Jamie and Heath and Ben Schrager. I'm Adam Azer. See you later.