Fantasy Football Today - Start or Sit (AFC): Watson, Pierce, Tua (12/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 1, 2022

Trevor Lawrence is our Start of the Week! We kick it off with players we love and players to avoid (3:30) for Week 13. How do we feel about a struggling Dameon Pierce with an amazing matchup? Then we've got your news and notes (10:00) and there are a lot of them as we try to keep up with the running back injuries ... One Question for Each Game (18:15)! Start or Sit Isiah Pacheco? Courtland Sutton? A Jets RB? A Steelers RB? DeVonta Smith? ... Start or Sit for Chiefs-Bengals (30:00), Browns-Texans (35:15), Jets-Vikings (43:35), Dolphins-49ers (49:50), Chargers-Raiders (59:30), Broncos-Ravens (1:05:15), Titans-Eagles (1:10:30), Steelers-Falcons (1:18:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Yeah, week 13, here we go. Bills and Patriots tonight, and we have eight games to talk about on today's show. Going to be a lot of good start and sit stuff, and some running back discussions, obviously, as well. We'll talk about the Jets, we'll talk about the Steelers, backfields, and a lot more. I'm Adam Azer. I've got Jamie Eisenberg and Heath Cummings here. Any chance of a Patriots upset tonight?

What's the chance of a Patriots upset tonight, Jamie? Give me a percentage. 15. 15%. Heath, percentage? 35. 35. All right.

25. I'll say 25%. We'll go right in the middle there. You know what? Let's rock and roll. Let's go right to it. Jamie, start of the week. Who are we starting?

Trevor Lawrence. I'm really excited about his opportunity coming off what you could say is maybe his best game of his career. When he threw for 300 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, led the comeback victory against the Ravens, 30 fantasy points. Back-to-back games with 24 fantasy points. Taking on a Lions team that allows the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, three quarterbacks in a row, over 26 fantasy points. I think Trevor Lawrence is in a good spot right now, and it's going to be interesting to see.

I asked Heath, I think it was Heath and Dave maybe, this question the other day, of the four and seven teams in the AFC, who is the most likely to make the playoffs, if any of them do? And I believe if I have the names correctly. It's Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville,

Raiders, maybe one more? Hmm. Holy please. Okay, so four and seven teams, you said? Four and seven teams in the AFC. Okay, that would be...

Yeah, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis. Say them. Oh, Indianapolis. Jacksonville and the Raiders. Yeah. Who's most likely? We didn't say Indianapolis because I think they're actually four, six, and one, right? No, they're four, seven, and one.

They have another bye. My bad. They're not 4-7. I'd say Cleveland with Deshaun Watson. Cleveland feels the most likely, but I'll tell you what, Jacksonville looks like their offense could be dangerous if this continues for him. Yeah.

Well, they got to win this game. They're not going to win the division, like I said, but they gotta go get this win uh heath who do you love i you know more and more and more i love garrett wilson this week and we talked about earlier in the week is he a top 20 wide receiver rest of season and we have those debates i'm always interested when i go through the projections process is going to be a top 20 wide receiver for that week and he's actually pretty close to a top 15 wide receiver for me i love this match matchup against Minnesota because it has the three facets

of what the Jets seem to need to have a good passing game. First off, they are much better against the run than they are against the pass. That's two things. And then they're going to score a bunch of points because they have a good offense, I expect. So I do think this is a game where we see 35-plus pass attempts from the Jets. And the way that Mike White targeted Garrett Wilson, I think you should expect maybe 10 of those passes to go to Wilson, which could make him a top-12 wide receiver this week. The only thing I would disagree with, I think it would be a good game for Garrett Wilson.

I don't think the Vikings are scoring a lot of points. This Jets defense is fantastic. And so I think Cousins, I'll just say this is the player I don't like this week. Cousins, I don't think he's going to have a big game. I think he's going to not get his second touchdown. He'll have some yards. But this Jets defense has proven to be very tough to move the ball on. And I think we'll see it be a frustrating game for Cousins,

even though it's the right setup for him. Although after he performed well in prime time last week, I don't know if there's a wrong setup for him anymore, but in any event, I, I, I, this has nothing to do with Wilson.

I just think that the, the Vikings offense, they've been bad running the ball. Just run defense has been great. And I don't think we're going to get the multiple touchdown game from, from cousins this week. Yeah. It's weird.

If not for that Bills game where the Jets did a great job against the Bills and Josh Allen was not hurt in that game, not until the second-to-last play. If not for that game, I really think I could look at the Jets' schedule and give you a, well, who have they played? And I do believe in their defense,

but this is going to be one of the better offenses they've faced so far. They've faced Skylar Thompson when they faced the Dolphins. They've had a pretty favorable quarterback schedule, I guess. But all that said, okay, here's the stat of the game I had for that game, since we're talking about it. The Jets have allowed three touchdown

passes in their last eight games. That is insane. But who have they faced? The Pittsburgh quarterbacks, both of them. Skyler Thompson, Aaron Rodgers, that was good. Brett Rippon, Mac Jones twice, Josh Allen, and Trevor Simeon. So I'm very intrigued to see what the Vikings can do. And I know the Jets have a good defense.

You can't fake it for that long. The question is, you know, do they have an elite defense, I guess. Maybe we'll try to find out in this game. All right, so we're starting Lawrence and Wilson. Jamie says he's avoiding Kirk Cousins. How about you, Heath? Who are you avoiding this week? I'd like to avoid Damian Pierce. It's a great matchup against the Browns, and there's a lot of uncertainty outside of the top 18 or 19 running backs this week, so it's hard to rank Pierce too low, but he has absolutely no floor at all right now, and I'm not sure he has very much upside either. The teams are just stacking the box against the Texans saying, prove you can beat us with the pass. And you know what? The Texans can't beat them with the pass. So I think like there's a possibility he could give you a 25 total yard game with no scores. I'd like to get away from Pierce if I can still have him ranked as a high influx I wonder though if

this is like the Texan Super Bowl you know like this is we're gonna do whatever we can to win this game yeah oh I'm sure it is yeah no you just you know they don't want to win I mean that's that's painfully obvious they do not want to win they want that number one overall pick to control I think their their choices of of what they have and clearly quarterback is got to be a priority but it just feels like if there's ever a game to sell out for this could be the one yeah that's what Dave was talking about yesterday there's just a lot of buzz about the game

in Texas and the good news is what did you say well he was saying because he was talking to his dad and you know who lives there and it was nice little personal story but even if the Texans do win they still have they're one-9 and 1. There's no team with fewer than three wins other than the Texans.

So they can win this game and still preserve the Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Sweet Sticks. I don't think so. I think they actually might try, though, which is something they haven't seemed to be doing in quite a while. Yeah. Okay. So does anybody have Damian Pierce in their top 20 this week? He's close for me. I mean, I don't necessarily disagree with Heath. I think it's tough to trust, but it's a great matchup.

It feels like it's a pretty decent situation. Rex Burke is in the concussion protocol, so one less guy to take him off the field for however many snaps that he may come off the field. So yeah, I don't mind Damian Pierce, but I'm certainly nervous about it. Okay. Would you start real quick? I'll finish on that. So, yeah, I don't mind Damian Pierce, but I'm certainly nervous about it. Okay. Would you start real quick? I'll finish on that. Pierce or whoever the Steelers starting running back is? I go Warren over Pierce in PPR and Pierce over Warren and not.

Heath? Right now, I think I have Pierce over the Steelers backs, but I would like to have Warren over Pierce. I may just make that change. Okay, folks, if you want to follow all the action, of course you need to get the CBS sports app. I got a great email from one of our listeners saying, try the CBS sports is the truth. Try the CBS sports app. It's amazing. It's so much better than the old one I was using. It's so clean, this and that. And yeah, I agree. It is really a great app. I'm on it every single night checking scores. And you can also follow all your, if you're making your bets, your gambling action, you can follow all that on the CBS Sports app. We got lightning fast live scoring for every pro and college

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It is awesome and we're giving away a free month if we can get to let's say 250 likes today can we do that people 250 likes and we'll give away a free month of paramount plus let's check the like tally right now we are at 54 we've got plenty of time um so we can get there. Let's do it. 56, 57, keep it going. And we have a question. Who would you start at quarterback this week? Geno Smith at the Rams, Deshaun... This is a poll, not a question from the chat.

A poll for you YouTubers. Geno Smith at the Rams, Deshaun Watson at the Texans, or Lamar Jackson, who left practice yesterday with an injury. We'll check on that. Against the Broncos. Guys, who are you picking? Geno Smith, Deshaun Watson, or Lamar Jackson? I would take Geno, followed by Lamar for now, and then Deshaun.

But if, you know, Pete Prisco keeps saying Lamar just doesn't look right watching him on film, that he wonders if the hip injury's been a problem for him. Now you have the quad injury, you know is he just you know not at 100 his receivers stink aside from mark andrews who obviously hasn't been mark andrews so you just wonder if there's just a lot of play here i think if we had seen a game with deshaun watson it'd be easy to say watson going against the browns i go excuse me going against te. Heath, who you got? Geno, Watson, or Lamar? Geno. Geno, all right. Okay, let's do some news and notes here.

Lamar Jackson left practice with a quad injury. So, gosh, if you have Lamar Jackson, I mean, you're not going to start Mac Jones. We have better options than that, right? You'd rather start Huntley than Mac Jones. I think Josh Allen would be good. You should start Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson tonight. Aaron Rodgers is expected to play this week.

However, he is open to shutting it down if the Packers are eliminated from playoff contention, which they pretty much would be with a loss. If they win this game, then they go into their bye with five wins or still probably alive. Matthew Stafford's not going to play this week against the Seahawks and the bears.

Remember Trevor Simeon played last week, but he got hurt in pregame warmups. So the bears right now, yeah, they signed a Tim Boyle and they signed Tim Boyle as fields and Simeon are both dealing with injuries. So we'll check on that throughout the week. I read somewhere that it might have been on

NBC Sports Edge that they expect Fields to play, which I thought was surprising. We'll cross our fingers. We'll hope for that against the Packers unless we're Packers fans. Running back news. J.K. Dobbins practiced. Don't expect him to play, but he's back practicing.

Najee Harris, it's not a serious injury. Jalen Warren expects to play this week. We don't know about Najee, but we know Warren expects to play. We're going to talk about that game shortly. Michael Carter, mispractice. So as of right now, safe to say we're not expecting him. They haven't ruled him out, but not expecting Carter as of now, right? We're not ranking him.

I did see something where they said he did not practice Wednesday, but they were still hopeful he could play. So I wouldn't say for sure he's not going to be out there. I don't think it would be tough to start Knight over Singletary if he gets in a partial practice today. Okay. Joe Mixon practiced. Oh, by the way, the Jets currently owe the Jaguars a sixth-round pick for James Robinson.

If Robinson rushes for 185 more yards this year, it becomes a fifth-round pick. So they certainly have incentive not to play James Robinson. Joe Mixon practiced. I think Prisco said that he wouldn't be surprised if they cut James Robinson. And he said, well, it would be funny if he went back to Jacksonville. Yeah, that could work.

All right. Mix in practice. He's getting, he's working in the right direction there. Josh Jacobs was limited. We know it's going to be kind of, you know, they had a walkthrough yesterday,

but he was listed as limited Josh Jacobs. You spent a lot on Samir White in one league. I did? Like 12 bucks. I think that is the league league I really need two wins. I think I'm five and seven. So, look, I think there's definitely a chance Samir White's the best running back this week.

I mean, look, you could be buying yourself a win. And not just that. How unrealistic is it that at some point, Jacobs shuts it down if this injury gets worse? And not just that. You're going to say, all right, Josh Jacobs, or down if this injury gets worse. And not just that, you're going to say, all right, if Zamir White gets the job, he doesn't have the third down roll,

he won't catch passes like Josh Jacobs. Josh Jacobs has 40 catches this year. 38 of them have come on first and second down. So you can still catch passes in that offense, even if Zamir Abdullah is getting the third down work. Doug Peterson says he feels good about Travis Etienne playing. Okay, I'd like something a little bit more concrete, but at least that's optimism. Raheem Mostert is expected to play.

That sucks. Sorry, Raheem, for fantasy. That's not good. Mike Boone returned to practice for the Broncos. Again, he may not play, but he's eligible to come back now. Jarek McKinnon missed practice with a hamstring injury. Wide receiver news. Jamar Chase preparing to play.

Jerry Judy and KJ Hamler missed practice. Mike Williams missed practice. Romeo Dobbs was designated to return off IR. Jamie, if Romeo Dobbs, if and when he comes back, does that take the shine off either Lazard or Watkins? I would think more Lazard than Watson at this point. Watson, sorry. Watson's just,

I mean, how would they get away from him? It's not like he's getting double-digit targets on a weekly basis. I can't imagine that he's going to go under six targets per game. You've got to feature that guy. Juju Smith-Schuster mispracticed with an illness. Kadarius Toney mispracticed with a hamstring injury. Dallas opened up the 21-day window for James Washington. Von Miller said, and then it was confirmed, Odell Beckham is going to visit three teams. The Giants, the Cowboys, and the Bills. The Cowboys appear to be the frontrunner. The Giants obviously have the best Super Bowl chance,

so he should probably sign with them. Zay Jones was limited with a chest injury. Should be okay as of now. Jacoby Myers is questionable for tonight with a shoulder injury. Is there any hesitation, Jamie, about Jacoby Myers? Is there a chance that he may not play? It sounds like he's going to be, he sounds like he's going to play. I would have hesitation just about starting him

because less than 100%, you've seen the production the last three weeks, and this Bill's defense is obviously very good. Okay, more wide receiver notes here. Chase Claypool was limited, that's it, just Chase Claypool. He was limited with a knee injury. He's facing Green Bay this week. Dallas Goddard, tight end. All right, if you can stash Dallas Goddard,

he's the best. Stash him, stash him, stash him. He's 80% rostered, and he could be back after two more games. He expects to be back. David Njoku has a new knee injury, so his status is up in the air for this week. Kyle Pitts is out for the season. Daniel Bellinger could be back. David Njoku has a new knee injury. So his status is up in the air for this week. Kyle Pitts is out for the season.

Daniel Bellinger could be back this week. I'll try to finish up quickly here. Offensive line news. Teron Armstead is almost certainly not going to play for the Dolphins. That's a huge deal. We'll give you the stats on that. I thought that he was going to try and play. And then I saw that he's almost certainly out.

But yes, they haven't officially ruled him out. But I'm not expecting him. I assume you're not expecting him. I was surprised with the report that he was going to try and play through this. So I would imagine if he's playing through this, he's playing through this in a very limited capacity. So it's tough to trust. I'm a little nervous about this Dolphins offense this week.

You're not benching the two receivers for sure. I think Wilson, if Mostert plays, you might be able to get away from, but you have to have some good options to do that. And Tua, I mean, you know, I don't know how much of it was Armstead leaving the game against the Texans when he got bent backwards and started getting hit, and that's why Mike McDaniel took him off the field. But my goodness, against this 49ers front, that could be ugly. Oh, it was that.

I mean, Dave sent me this note yesterday. He missed, Teron Armstead missed most of week five and all of week six. In those games, the Dolphins allowed a pass rush pressure on 52.3% of their dropbacks. All four sacks came

last week with Armstead out of the game. I mean, in limited sample size, it has been night and day. Tua was sacked four times, or Skylar Thompson? Tua was sacked four times. All without, well, I think so. I've got even more notes on that.

I'll tell you that when we preview the game. Chargers center Corey Lindsley and right tackle Trey Pipkin's mispractice. So we love the Chargers this week at the Raiders, but they're beat up on the line. The Giants could get three starters back this week on their offensive line, which would be nice. Key defensive news,

Colts cornerback Kenny Moore is out this week, and perhaps for an extended period of time, he's a great cornerback for them. That's the Colts. Chicago safety Eddie Jackson's out for the season. Baltimore looks like maybe I'll be getting a little healthier in the secondary. CJ Gardner-Johnson unlikely to out for the season. Baltimore looks like maybe I'd be getting a little healthier in the secondary. C.J. Gardner-Johnson unlikely to play for the Eagles.

I thought he'd be out for the rest of the season. Is he? All I saw was that he missed practice. He has a lacerated kidney. Yeah, I didn't see that he's out for the season. Yeah, I don't know playoffs, but I think regular season. Okay. I don't know why there was a report that he mispracticed then.

Seattle safety... Well, if they don't want to put him on IR, then they have to keep designating his status. Yeah, I just don't know why anyone would talk about it then. But saddle safety Ryan Neal is questionable. And that's... When Ryan Neal went out of the game yesterday... Or on Sunday, his backup came in, took a terrible angle on that Josh Jacobs touchdown

run in overtime. Aaron Donald out this week. Alright. Oh, but the Bills... Tonight tonight, the bills are probably getting two pass rushers back. AJ Epinesa and Gregory Russo. Sorry for the long injury update. They're not as good, but that's, that is very important for them. Uh, one question for each game. Here we go. Heath, Chiefs at Bengals. Pacheco, start or sit? I would like to get away from him. I think this is going to be more of a passing game than a running game for the Chiefs. I think he is one of many

running backs in that touchdown dependent flex range. He's one of the guys I've not moved ahead of Damian Pierce. I would definitely start Pierce over Pacheco. So, do you think we can get him to put the A in his name? The spelling Isaiah is very tough. He's the only one I know that doesn't

have the A. Two questions. Okay, my bad. Cleveland at Houston. Jamie, start or sit Deshaun Watson? I would start him if you do not have a better option. And I know that's a cop-out, but I think if you're comparing... I like him better than Cousins. I like him better than Rodgers because of his injury.

I like him better than Russell Wilson. But I think Watson's in that... So just to frame it, we have him on our site from Sportsline projected for, I think, a top five quarterback last time I looked. I think that's a little too aggressive. But I do think that there is the chance for him to have, and we had this discussion on HQ,

Heath I think has him for one and a half touchdowns. I asked Pete Prisco for a stat line. He said around 270, if I'm not mistaken, Heath, in two touchdowns. I think that puts him in the 10 to 12, 10 to 15 range, with the hope that he's on the positive side of that if you're starting. And we don't know what he'll do in his first game back as a rusher either, because 270 and two with what he normally does as a rusher might put him in the top eight discussion.

But if he's more of a pocket passer, then it would be in that 10 to 15 range. I'm starting him in three leagues. One is as a Kyler replacement. One is ahead of Garoppolo. And one is a super flex league where I don't have Kyler also. I'm going to go out on a limb. I feel pretty confident in this Azar stat.

I don't think the Texans have allowed a top five finish to a quarterback all season. The highest I can find right now, just quick is qb8 jalen hurts so that's interesting because they've seen the fewest pass attempts in the it's really silly but it it's true yeah which is the best kind of azure set yeah there you go silly but true jets at minnesota heath are you feeling it i am not feeling it i think he is a touchdown dependent flex um outside of my top 36 wide receivers but if you start three wide receivers in a flex like we do in a lot of our leagues and i think you might be flexing them jamie follow-up question on this, because it has to be asked. In what scenario gives you your highest ranking of a Jets-wide running back?

Like Michael Carter out, and it's Knight, or Michael Carter in, and it's Carter. And where would that running back be ranked? Right now, Knight is 24-ish in both formats, 23 maybe in one, 25 in another, depending on how some of the touchdown-dependent running backs I have. So I might have him ahead of Jamal Williams, I think, in PPR and right behind him in non, something like that. I still would probably rank Knight higher than Carter because I don't think Carter will be 100%. And so I think then we get the dreaded three-headed backfield

because I think Ty Johnson's going to have his opportunities as well. So I probably would go Knight, Carter, Johnson if Carter plays, and all three of them would be 30 or lower. Okay. Got a comment here in the chat. Acer stats give me a headache from Rushman. Take some Advil, baby, because there ain't going anywhere. All right, next up, Miami at San Francisco.

Heath, starters at Jeff Wilson with Raheem Mostert expected to play. If Damian Pierce is the line of demarcation, then I would say he's a start because I would play him over Pierce. But he was definitely in the low-end number two range, and I could absolutely see that there are a lot of people out there who have two running backs they'd rather start over him. So certainly not a must-start with Mostert. If Mostert plays and Armstead's out,

I'd be very, very scared of Jeff Wilson. There are two very important Armsteads in that game, by the way. Acer's stat. Because Eric Armstead is also going to play for the 49ers. And I will give you the numbers when he has played. He has made a huge difference. Okay. Chargers at the Raiders.

Start or sit Zemir White if Josh Jacobs is out, Jamie? I would start Zemir White over Zonovan Knight if Josh Jacobs is out. What about over Jeff Wilson and Damian Pierce? I'm already starting Zonovan Knight without Michael Carter over Jeff Wilson. I would start Damian Pierce. I'd probably start Zemir White over Damian Pierce if there is no Josh Jacobs. And over Zonovan Knight. Yes, I have Pierce over Knight right now. Okay. So if Josh Jacobs is out, you would go Zemir White, Pierce, Zonovan Knight.

Yes, and I would start Jalen Warren over all of them. That is so interesting because that question, that game is coming up in a second. Hold on. Denver at Baltimore. Heath, Cortland Sutton. Last three games without Jerry Judy. Judy played one snap on one of them. He's been 13-ish PPR points. He hasn't been a top 24 wide receiver

in any of those three weeks. Now facing Baltimore starter Sid Cortland Sutton. I don't think he's going to do a lot better than what he's been doing, but I do think he can get pretty close to it. I think he's a borderline number two wide receiver. And in fairness to him, if he's a borderline number two wide receiver. And in fairness to him,

if he's scoring those 13 fantasy points and never scoring a touchdown, that tells you that he's got the upside to get to 19 or 20, but I don't think that's going to happen in this matchup. Should have had one last week. It's just so hard to project a touchdown when Russell Wilson's averaging less than one touchdown per game.

Come on, he's got eight. Marlon Humphrey scares me. Yes. I mean, he really did a great job against Christian Kirk last week. Sutton, I'm trying to get away from him. Who am I going to start over? I'm going to start Josh Palmer over him if Mike Williams doesn't play. I think that's my one Sutton decision.

Garrett Wilson, I'm starting over him. I think you guys would definitely do that. I agree with Garrett Wilson. I don't think I'd probably get all the way to Palmer. I like Palmer better than... Obviously contingent on Mike Williams, right? Right. Tennessee at Philadelphia.

Miles Sanders, Devontae Smith, or Traylon Burks? Who's the best flex in a very interesting game, Jamie? Miles Sanders, Devontae Smith, and Traylon Burks, is that what you said? Mm-hmm. In PPR, I'd go Smith, Sanders, Burks. In non-PPR or half PPR, I would go smith sanders burks and non-ppr or half ppr i would go sanders smith burks and finally pittsburgh atlanta you both can talk about this because i think you might disagree

what's the backfield split look like if naji harris is out jamie you seem high on jaylen warren does that mean you're not expecting much from benny snell if naji's out what's the split look like i think snell will supplement him. I think also there might be a chance Anthony McFarlane gets a couple of touches as well. But everything that I've read seems to think like from the media, this isn't from Mike Tomlin, that the Steelers want to see what Jalen Warren looks like in a starter's role. So I think this is Jalen Warren's opportunity. The fact that he's not even on the injury report I think is a great sign for him. I mean, you know, go back what a month ago,

three weeks ago, it was Jalen Warren's going to set for a larger role. Well, now he has that opportunity for a larger role. I don't think Benny Snell coming on a relief of Najee Harris is going to change what their approach was going to be for what Warren's role was. And remember, prior to him getting hurt, you know, he was taking significant snaps already. So I think it's a, it's a unbelievable matchup. And, you know, if he's the guy to whatever extent, he's the guy 60%, 70%, 80%, you know, 55%, there's a chance for him to be a really good fantasy option because the Falcons stink against running backs. Falcons do stink. And I do. Warren is definitely my favorite Steelers running back. I think I maybe have a little closer split between him and Snell in the running game,

but Warren pretty much dominating passing downs. He's somewhere between 24 and 30 for me at running back right now. And Snell's not in my top 30. All right. I want to tell you something, though. This is the last game we're scheduled to talk about. That's going to be about two hours into the show at this rate. I want to give you this thought on this backfield here.

In Atlanta, you say they stink against running backs. They don't always stink against running backs, but the three guys on four separate occasions who have had big games. Six in a row, though, 18 or more points. Yeah, they do give up a lot of points, but when it comes to just yards per carry or rushing totals, just rushing totals,

they don't always stink. They do give up touchdowns, though. You're right. They have a bad defense, and that helps because they give up touchdowns. But look at the four guys who have really creamed them in the run game. Nick Chubb, Deontay Foreman twice,

and Brian Robinson. All of them have had 105 or more yards. Foreman did it twice. What I notice about them is those are big bruisers. And I'm not sure if that's anything. But that is more Snell than Warren, obviously. And it would be Najee Harris if he were going to play. So I did notice that,

that the only running backs who have really crushed the Falcons on the ground have been between the tackles. I mean, Chubbs obviously can do everything. But between the tackles, bigger guys. I don't know. I guess the counter to that would be is what would Gibson have done, who's the smaller of the two?

Not that he's not bigger than Warren, because he is. But what would Antonio Gibson have done if he got in that work? Well, I think Gibson had like 13 carries. He didn't have a good game. I can't really do anything other than to look at yards per carry. I know it's not the best thing, but it's the only thing I got.

And Robinson was much better than Gibson. I think to me it's more about the work that those guys had as opposed to necessarily the size of them. Yeah. Gibson had nine carries. Nine carries, sorry. There have been some running backs who have been in like the 14, 15 carry range and haven't done much at all on the ground against the Falcons.

And just noticing the ones who have been really good have been the bigger guys. But all right, I assume nobody's going to care about that. It's kind of a reach. All right, we'll take a break. When we come back, we'll talk about...

Oh my God. I cannot decide the game of the week. First of all, this is an amazing slate of games. And unfortunately, they're pretty much all on this episode. We're going to have to figure out a way to talk about one tomorrow with Daveave but could be kansas city cincinnati that's the first game

we're talking about when we come back did you know 66 of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate don't let your project become part of this statistic a quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime financial penalties penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report.

All right, Chiefs and Bengals. I talked about Juju playing in the slot last week and only playing 38% of the snaps overall, and none of that was good. How about the Bengals? They have seen the fourth fewest wide receiver targets in football, and now it is going back to week four. Week four was the last time a wide receiver had more than seven targets against the Bengals.

That's wild. And, uh, I need to be a wide receiver against this team. What's that? For the chief. What'd you say? Chiefs don't need a wide receiver. No, it's up, but I need, I need Juju here. Okay.

I really need some Juju. Uh, should I start him, Jamie? He's definitely started in three receiver leagues. I mean, that goes without saying, I think it's just a matter again of, of who you are comparing him to who's on your team. He's just outside my top 24. You know, I'm a little bit concerned about the usage last week,

the fact that he's still dealing with an illness now, you know, so, you know, whatever Andy Reed was thinking, does that carry over because they have so many different bodies to use. So, you know,

I, I, again, I think Juju's a good start. I don't know if he's a great start. And, again, who do you compare? For me, I have Juju in one league. I'm playing Christian Watson over him.

That's an easy one for me. Are you Sutton-Courtland for Juju? I have them back-to-back right now with Sutton one spot ahead. But I will definitely make that switch if Juju's fine. What were the games where Juju played more than 40% of his snaps in the slot? One moment, please. It was the Chargers game.

He scored four points. The Bucs game, he scored 9.6 points. Can you give me weeks? I'm sorry. No. I'm just trying to figure out if because the Chiefs have had many different things that just randomly pop up during games at random points during the season and in the very next week it has no correlation yeah it just happened last

weeks two four and five and then last week against the Rams. Okay. Yeah, the only thing I can say about that period of time is that was when Juju was not 100% healthy. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think the bigger numbers... He was on the injury report basically for that whole month. Barely. It's also when Mikko Hardman was not productive.

True, and obviously Mikko Hardman's not going to be productive in this game. He's out. All right, so Juju is, you know, number two. true and obviously miko hartman's not gonna be productive in this game he's out huh uh all right so juju is uh you know number two ish wide receiver for jamie two ish is the perfect way to put it okay um mahomes is a start here's your lol stat of the game jacoby reset is the only quarterback to score more than 18 points against the Bengals. Good luck, Patrick Mahomes. Pacheco or replacement running back? Steelers replacement, Jets replacement,

potentially Raiders replacement. Yeah, in full PPR, I would start Knight over him for sure. And I'll probably get there with Warren as well. I guess let me just ask you more broadly here. Are there any surprises in this game? I mean, Juju's going to be a tough call. You're going to start all the Bengals that usually start, I'm assuming sitting Tyler Boyd. But Heath, are you going to make a case for Sky Moore or Hayden Hurst

or Tyler Boyd himself or Watson or anything like that? I don't really want to make a case for those guys, but I don't think they're all just completely ignore, fade, stay away. I think Hayden Hurst is right at the, towards the top of that touchdown dependent streaming tight end, just because he's playing in a game that's going to have projected to have more points than any other game. So you're playing with a great quarterback in a high scoring game against a

bad defense. Even if he has no floor at all, he has just about as good a chance to score a touchdown as anybody that's not in our top seven. So he's a top 12 tight end for me. I think Tyler Boyd, as miserable as he's been, is still a low-end, boom-bust, number-three-wide receiver because of the same things I just said about Hayden Hurst. And it might even be better for him that Jamar Chase is back and there's not very much attention. He can make another one of those big plays he's made this year. Sky Moore is behind him for me.

And what kind of confidence... I am hopeful Jared McKinnon is healthy because I think this could be a Jared McKinnon game. Yes, very much. Oh, man. You know, Jared McKinnon has two games this year with more than three catches. One of them was the Tennessee game when Mahomes threw 68 passes.

It just really hasn't done much of anything. But we're hoping for a lot of points. And with that said, which Bengals wide receiver do you like better, Jamie? And are you comfortable starting both of them? Absolutely comfortable starting both of the top two. And for right now, still Tee Higgins, just because whatever is limiting Chase, it's still limiting Chase. But, you know, they're both top 10 receivers.

Okay. I'm not going to – okay. I just want to know if Chase was – must start – you know, he's not going to be as high as he usually is, but top 10 for you. Okay. Yes. Heath, Chase is what for you? 12, I think.

I'm not going to overcomplicate this game then. You know who to start. Pacheco is a guy to avoid. Juju number two-ish. Hayden Hurst, everybody's got to run to him. It'll be very interesting if McKinnon is out, because will they throw Ronald Jones in there? Will they throw Melvin Gordon in there? It's going to be curious

to see what they do if McKinnon can't go, because he plays such a vital role for them. Yeah, that's a good point. Alright, Cleveland's at Houston. Stat of the game. Deshaun Watson used to play for the Texans. Also, Houston has seen the fewest pass attempts in the NFL. And that's really what it is. It's like we know Houston's not that good defensively.

They're one of the worst in yards per attempt allowed, but they just get run all over. Cleveland can run the ball. So it's just a matter of how does Watson do with probably limited pass attempts. And I just want to say one thing. I'm just going to leave all the off-field stuff out of it. I've gotten some comments. Obviously, I don't like talking about Deshaun Watson.

Just talk football. I think it sucks, but we're just going to talk football, exactly. And we have to talk fantasy. All right, Deshaun Watson. Heath, give me your thoughts on him. I think that he has a ceiling every bit as high as what sports line projection is for him, which I think is QB five or QB six. There are just enough extenuating circumstances that make me a little bit cautious this week. He is very close to 12 for me. I kind of bounce around with

a couple of guys at that QB 12 range. I would start him over Rogers. I would start him over Tom Brady. But I do think there's also the risk that the first half of this game or even the first entire game he plays, he has a lot of rust to knock off. He's not played a real football game in almost two years. And the very little bit we saw in the preseason did not look like Deshaun Watson. We don't know how much Kevin Stefanski is going to have him run in his very first game back. And we do know that the Browns, if they chose to do so, could win this game without throwing a forward pass. So there's enough things that I'm concerned about that he's not ranked where his upside is, which is as good as almost anybody. Why are you guys starting Watson over Rodgers? Just because Rodgers is so beat up?

Yep. Yeah, I think if Rodgers is 100% healthy, well, I mean, he's kind of a broken thumb. If Rodgers is fine with the rib injury, it would not surprise me if he's better. But I think he said something there that stands out the most. Upside. We've seen kind of Rodgers, you know,

his best games have been kind of 23, 24 points. He lives in that 19, 20 range. Would not be surprising if that's what he did, because he already did that against the Bears. You know, I think for what Watson could be, you know, there's a better chance of that. I just think that Rodgers has more upside now because of Watson. You know, his best two games...

Well, I mean, if we're going to play that, they can run all over them carved, clearly without Roquan Smith and Eddie Jackson and and... Why am I blanking on the pass pressure? Their defense... Oh, Robert Quinn? Yeah, their defense has not been the same. No, it's the thing. I mean,

yeah, he is an amazing matchup. Bears are a layup. And if you had a quarterback who had the ribs in the situation of Rodgers and you wanted to prevent, like the Bears probably can't hit him anyway, but why not just throw the ball 25 times and win the game by two scores? All right, fair enough.

Maybe that changes at field place and they have to score to keep up. We'll stick with the Browns here because we've spoken a lot about Damian Pierce. Damian Pierce is not a top 20 running back for these guys this week. If the matchup were tougher, he might not even be a top 30 running back, but the Browns are so bad against the run.

They give up the second most fantasy points to running backs. I think these two teams are clearly two of the worst against the run. We'll come back to the Houston wide receivers in a second briefly, but Nick Chubb's a must start. Any interest in Kareem Hunt, guys? I think that if you're stuck this is a good spot to go back to him because

again it's it's a game where if they if they do what they want to do offensively and and like he said if they don't want to throw they're not going to put 40 carries on Nick Chubb they'll give him 20 to 25 and then they'll probably be 15 for you know Kareem Hunt if that's the route they want to go so I would not be surprised if he plays well all right but he's not a top 30 guy is he

no you know he's behind the replacement guys he's behind pierce he's you know i look at him and aj dylan kind of similar because i think you're gonna get you know similar matchups similar opportunities uh dylan's coming off a good game. To me, the guys you're debating with Kareem Hunt in terms of starters, like Cordero Patterson, I could see Hunt being better than Patterson this week. Yeah.

Nobody's dropped Kareem Hunt. He's rostered I think in about 90% of leagues, so let's just see if Deshaun Watson likes him and targets him. Maybe this helps, but sit him. Cleveland wide receivers. Heath, Amari Cooper's on the road. It's not a neutral site game like that game against the

Bills. Start or sit Amari Cooper? I may end up looking like the biggest dummy in the world, but I'm mostly just ignoring it, and I'm starting Amari Cooper. What about Donovan Peoples-Jones? He did get to live in the state of Texas so maybe that helps.

Maybe. It's true. He has played home games in Texas as recently as last year. That's true. Feels like home. I kind of like what you said about Kareem Hunt. I want to see how Deshaun Watson. I think there's probably a

loser and a winner coming out, and we may not figure it out in this game, but I really don't believe that David Njoku and Donovan Peoples-Jones are going to be as good as the best we've seen from both of them. That month-long stretch from Njoku, the month-long stretch from Peoples-Jones, I think one of those guys will lose out. I don't have a good guess on who's going to be the number two option for Watson because for most of his career, he didn't have a number two option. He just did what Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers did and just throw the ball 40% of the time to your best player.

All right. So Peoples-Jones is someone we're going to try to avoid. And then Jamie— The thing, though, I would not be surprised based on what they were doing when they were at their best, where there wasn't a lot of touchdowns between those two guys. Like I can see,

I can still see people's Jones in that 11, 12 range, you know, which, uh, you know, as you alluded to before Heath and I agree, you know,

there, there's a touchdown away from being a great game for Corbin Sutton. Same thing, you know, so I would not be surprised. And the thing about it is clearly Deshaun Watson's a better downfield thrower than Jacoby Preset is in his career. So maybe those opportunities open up a little bit for Peoples-Jones.

And then Njoku, again, you know, he certainly scored more touchdowns than Peoples-Jones has. But, you know, he could still be a 60, 70-yard type of tight end and still be very much sustainable and startable in PPR. I looked at the games where David Njoku, you know, and still be very much sustainable and startable in PPR. I looked at the games where David Njoku was playing a normal snap count and was good. And basically, Donovan Peoples-Jones typically had a good game when Amari Cooper didn't.

And that was road games. So you can buy into that as much as you want. I would think that part of that, though, is why three guys are not sustainable is that's Jacoby Brissett. Yeah, but we're not expecting a ton of passing in this game. I don't know. I mean, you know, this could feature your new toy. Like this, for a team that's 4-7, you know,

I mean, we did say they have the best of that group to be a playoff contender, but most likely they're not making the playoffs. You know, Deshaun Watson, I would imagine, for everything that's gone on with him, from a football perspective, this is the game that he's been circling for a long time. Najoku, if he plays, you guys

have him in the top seven. Would you start Najoku or Kittle? Najoku as of now. Yeah, let's see if he's 100% healthy, but as long as he is, it's him over Kittle. Now, if Deebo Samuel doesn't play, I didn't even mention Deebo Samuel, but he's on the injury report,

so we'll keep an eye on that. So, last thing here, Brandon Cooks, Nico Collins. What are we thinking? 10, 11 fantasy points from these guys? That's where they live. Would you start Peoples Jones? Nico overcooks, though. Okay, Nico Peoples Jones start Peoples-Jones? Nico overcooks, though. Okay, Nico, Peoples-Jones.

Peoples-Jones for me. I've got Nico higher. They're in the same range. And the Browns DST is top six this week. They're 55% roster. I don't like the matchup, but I would keep an eye on Jordan Akins. They've benched Brevin Jordan.

You saw last week in the first game with Kyle Allen, five catches he did of the fumble, but he was certainly a big part of this passing attack. And if they're going to chase points most weeks, Jordan Akins could end up being somebody that in a deeper league could help you. Let's go to the Jets and the Vikings here. The Jets, as I mentioned, they've allowed three touchdown passes in their last eight games.

And a lot of easy competition there, but still very good. Would you start kirk cousins or derrick carr this week guys car i'll go with car all right um derrick cousins or jimmy kirk cousins or jimmy garoppolo cousins uh cousins over garoppolo all right so i've gotten alright so I've gotten a lot I've gotten a lot no two questions

within like a half hour yesterday should I start Mike White over Lamar Jackson I said no what are your expectations Heath for Mike White it's like he again

has a very wide range of possible outcomes I'm expecting him to be a high end QBB2. I have not considered him over Lamar Jackson. I have considered him over Tom Brady in that range, but I've just got him behind him. He's around QB18 for me. I think in this situation, if he ends up throwing 35 or 40 passes, he could end up with 300 yards and two touchdowns and be a top 12 quarterback again.

But also like there is implosion potential as we've seen from Mike White before. Yeah. I got to give him credit. Yeah. He was obviously very good last week. He was great in his first start in, in 2021.

And then the second game was right after that. He only threw 11 passes, but he scored 10 fantasy points. Yeah, he did pretty well in those 11 passes. He was on fire. Yeah, before he got hurt. And then he came back the next week and he threw four interceptions and scored two points against the Bills. So I would say in three of

his four starts, he's been pretty good, you know, even though one of them was only 11 passes, but he did play well. Minnesota's so bad against quarterbacks. Mike White or Jimmy Garoppolo?

Garoppolo for me, but I think he's a wild card, Mike White. You know, I think if you're in a tenuous situation with your quarterback,

you don't have Kyler Murray, you know, you don't have Justin Fields, you've been kind of playing the quarterback roulette game, you know, depending on, you know, the Russell Wilson,

Matthew Stafford, fantasy manager has been begging for help. This is the perfect guy to say, okay, I'm going to go YOLO and hope that he goes out and has a big game. All right. Jets running backs. We've discussed already. It's not, it's a, it's a tough matchup. I mean, they give a lot of receiving production, fifth, most receiving yards per game and running backs, but running backs are averaging 3.76 yards per carry against the Vikings. I mean, they're just very good against the run, so that's not good, but these are

like low-end number two guys, I suppose, and it gets even worse if Michael Carter plays. It's interesting. I mean, you do want to pick them up, and we said it on Tuesday. It's not necessarily a this-week thing for Zonovan Knight. I know people are going to have a lot of questions. So if Michael Carter's out, would you start Zonovan Knight or Cordaro Patterson?

Knight. Knight. Gus Edwards. Edwards. Gus. Zonovan Knight or a command... You know that Gus Edwards is from Liberia? No.

I learned that yesterday. I didn't know that. He was born in Liberia how about um Brian Robinson Antonio Gibson Zonovan Knight you know where Gus Edwards started his college career I do know that that was Rutgers uh no finished at Rutgers geez wow oh my gosh I have to quit show. I can't believe I just said that. Well, it was a good run. All right, Brian Robinson or Zonovan Knight if Carter's out? Robinson. Jets wide receivers, Garrett Wilson is top 18 in both formats.

Elijah Moore, I think, has been picked up in perhaps too many leagues. I don't know. It was 26% yesterday. He barely played. You guys aren't starting Elijah Moore, are you? We're not. I'm starting him in a couple of deeper leagues, yeah.

Tyler Conklin or Hayden Hurst? I like Conklin better. Conklin. Revenge game, baby! He's 11th, 10th, 10th, 11th in the rankings for everybody. He just needs five or more targets, basically. He's been pretty good when he's gotten five or more targets, basically. He's been pretty good when he's gotten five or more targets, but there's only been six games

where he's done that. All right, Kirk Cousins is around 14th-ish. We've said start him over Garoppolo, over Mike White, sit him for Derek Carr, sit him for Trevor Lawrence, for Deshaun Watson.

And we'll see. Jets are giving up the seventh fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Dalvin Cook. You guys do not have him in your top 12. Heath, who would you start over Dalvin Cook? I would start Ramondre Stevenson, for sure. I'd start Travis Etienne as long as he's fully healthy by the end of the week. I'd start Rashad White.

If Fournette doesn't play or either way? If Fournette doesn't play, not if Fournette plays. How about, I'd say you have Tony Pollard ahead of him. Is that going to stick? Currently have Tony. I don't love the situation for Dalvin Cook. And Jamie is Tony Pollard. I would start both Cowboys running backs over Cook.

Yeah, how about that? All right, and you know what? You guys have him around 16th. Guess where he is for the season. He's 15th per game in PPR, 13th in non-PPR, and simply just doesn't have that many touches. 16 carries per game, 16.2. That's his lowest since 2018.

All right, Minnesota. It's him or it's Kevin O'Connell has not been good for him. I think they're more pass-heavy. You look at his rates, he's basically as him or it's Kevin O'Connell has not been good for him. I think they're more pass heavy. You look at his rates, he's basically as good as he's ever been. He also doesn't get a lot of catches this year. Start Jefferson and Phelan is what, Jamie? As he said, a number three receiver. Not a slam dunk by any stretch.

Okay. The Jets are allowing the third fewest points to wide receivers. Hopefully this isn't a bad game for Jefferson. TJ Hawkinson or David Njoku? I know you guys are high on Njoku. Would you start him or Hawkinson? I would start

Hawkinson, but that's close. Hawkinson. Alright, so that means he's a must-start guy, and the Jets' DST is okay. Miami at San Francisco. Okay, here's your stat of the game. Yes, Tua Tungavailoa with Teron Armstead in Week 12. 234 yards and a touchdown, 25% pressure rate, no sacks.

Tua without Teron Armstead. He threw eight passes. He was sacked four times. How could he have been sacked four times on 11 dropbacks with eight passes? Probably seven passes or 12 dropbacks. But a 54.5% pressure rate compared to 25% with Teron Armstead.

Where did you get that from? From True Media. Okay. San Francisco is 16th in pressure rate, but in the three games that Eric Armstead has played this year, they've been top six in pressure rate all three games. So there are a lot of things working against the Dolphins in this game, specifically up front.

And what does that mean, Jamie, for Tua, for Tyreek Hill, and for Jalen Waddell? You can't bench the receivers because, you know, it's one big play. They're certainly capable of that. There's touchdown potential across the board. Clearly the weakness of this 49ers defense, if there is one, is their secondary. And I know it's not a weakness, but it's just worse than their run defense.

And so, you know, again, they're probably not good DFS plays, but I'm still starting both hill and wild and i probably haven't ranked too high um two is still ranked as a number one quarterback i'm not going to get cute and start watson over him for example i'm not going to start um mike white over him you know i'm just going to take my chances with what has been an mvp candidate and certainly a breakout quarterback this year but i i do think there's there's reason for concern i this 49ers defense is great. They're going to make things uncomfortable for him if Terran Armstrong was 100% healthy.

You know, so we're going to find out how Mike McDaniel knows his former team. There's obviously a lot of crosses, you know, revenge factors here, you know, with the coach, the running backs from Miami, and the 49ers knowing, I'm sure, what they want to do. But just in terms of the Dolphins offense, I think there's reason for concern just looking at this defense and the situation with their best offensive lineman probably not playing. Yeah, so you're starting Burrow over him. The thing about Tua is this is actually an elite quarterback that you might have some other great option with, right?

I mean, because he was dropped in a lot of leagues or a late-round pick. So you've got, you, Jamie, have Burrow, among others, mean, because he was dropped in a lot of leagues or a late round pick. So you've got you, Jamie, have Burrow, among others, Herbert, Hertz, Trevor Lawrence, Geno Smith ahead of Tua. Heath, you're not quite there. You have Tua fifth ahead of Herbert, ahead of Geno, ahead of Trevor Lawrence. I've moved

Herbert ahead of him. But the rest of the guys, yeah. And I have the same concerns. It's just that I don't think gino that other guys have anywhere close to the same upside that two has jeff wilson right now uh for is he really top 16 or is that without he's around 20 we we don't have most ranked yet okay okay so um okay, I updated rankings. Jamie has some 26 and you're going to put them at 20 ish.

Yeah. All right. So you guys would start say Zeke over him. I, yeah, I like Zeke a lot more than Jeff Wills. A little more. Deandre Swift.

I would not. I'm not there yet, but I wouldn't be surprised. The fact that Swift is practicing in full again is a pretty good sign. Okay. Mike Kosicki is a sit. And Jimmy Garoppolo is about 15th. I think you guys said you have him over by— You keep asking Cousins and Garoppolo.

I really struggle with that one. All right. So right now you have Cousins, Garoppolo. I really struggle with that one. All right. So right now you have it Cousins, Garoppolo, Mike White, right? Mm-hmm. And Heath, you have it Cousins, Garoppolo, Mike White with Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in that mix too. Mm-hmm. All right.

Yeah, I mean, look, it's obviously it's a good matchup. The Dolphins give up the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. I'm going to change my answer. Garoppolo over Cousins. But you know what? Look at the quarterbacks who have done well against them. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields.

It's not like they're giving up big games to bad quarterbacks. And Garoppolo is kind of right in the middle. He's not bad, but he's not Burrow. Yeah, just the more I think about it, it's not so much about Garoppolo. It's more about my fears with Cousins. Heath, would you start?

Give me the running back situation for the Niners. Obviously, McCaffrey's a start. If he plays, is there another guy you'd consider? If he doesn't play, what do you do with Mason, TDP? Well, and Tevin Coleman. Especially if he doesn't play. I think Tevin Coleman would mess that whole thing up.

I don't have another 49ers running back that I want to use as long as McCaffrey plays. If McCaffrey was out, I don't think I would have a 49ers running back ranked in my top 30. I think I would rank them Coleman, TDP, Mason. Okay, but it's an avoid. I would like to avoid it if Christian McCaffrey's not playing.

That could be a huge thing for Debo if Debo's able to play. All right, so then let's finish with the San Francisco wide receivers, Jamie, and break it down. Do you like these guys this week? It's kind of weird. The Dolphins give up so many points to quarterbacks, but not that bad against wide receivers. They're 13th.

So, yeah, Iyuk and Debo who aren't getting a ton of targets. What do you think? I think what he said is very telling about the running back situation. I think that without the second guy there, if Debo's healthy, that he's going to—you all right? Yeah, I had to turn the heat off. It's getting really hot in here. I'm losing consciousness. I don't have much water to die in here. I think Debo's going to get more work in the

run game than he's had the last couple weeks because that's probably who they feel the most comfortable with, but I have it. Iyuk over Debo in PPR. Debo over Iyuk in non-PPR. Both guys, low-end number two receivers, but you're not setting them. Ooh, let's do Juju Smith-Schuster

or a Niners wide receiver. Niners receivers for me. I've got Juju, then Debo, then Ayuk, but they're all very close. Sutton? 49ers receivers. Sutton, Juju, Debo, Ayuk. Half PPR, Isaiah Pacheco or a Niners receiver?

Both Niners receivers. All right, so Jalenco or a Niners receiver? Both Niners receivers. All right. So Jalen Warren or a Niners receiver? Niners receivers. Okay. Yeah. All right. And George Kittle.

It's like he's one of the tight ends, Heath, that you're just probably, you know, you said there's like seven tight ends that you're just starting. Is he at the end of the list? I think he's almost like the Gabe Davis, Christian Watson of tight ends that you're just starting. Is he at the end of the list? I think he's almost like the Gabe Davis, Christian Watson of tight ends. You know that it might not be fun, but the upside's way too good. I think he has three games this year with 18 fantasy points.

Any tight end who gets 18 fantasy points three times in a season is just so securely locked into your lineup that you can't even... So yeah, he's one of the guys I'm not questioning, but I also know he might score six this week. Man, I don't want to put too much into taran armstead but i feel like you could make the case that taran armstead's absence is going to impact every single player in this game because if the dolphins don't score the way they usually score then you might have

another 28 to 30 pass attempt game for garoppolo if If the Dolphins come out and put up 30 points or 25 or more points or something like that, you might get 35 to 40 pass attempts from Jimmy Garoppolo. And that's obviously a huge deal for everyone. And I don't know how you guys feel about that, but that's basically been the problem. Last week was an exception. Jimmy Garoppolo actually threw a decent amount last week

with them actually pitching a shutout against the Saints. But for the most part, he's throwing 28 passes, and that sucks for everyone. George Kittle barely ever gets more than six targets. You're not usually getting more than seven or eight from Debo and Ayuk. I think we'll find out how much they like Tevin Coleman, TDP, and Jordan Mason because that's probably going to be what sways how their offense operates. Because I don't think they're going to put,

especially if McCaffrey's got a knee irritation, they're going to put 30 carries on him. And so if they really want to see who's the second guy because they probably have to figure that out, then that's going to be, I think, how many attempts Garoppolo has. Sydney in our chat is asking, Kittle or Hayden Hurst? Kittle. Okay. Kittle or Hayden Hurst. Kittle. Okay.

Kittle or, uh, Pat Fryer. Muth. Fryer. Muth. Yeah. Muth.

Niners DST low end starter this week. Okay. Let's take a break. We still have, I think four games left. So buckle up, uh, chargers Raiders when we come back and we're back on fantasy football today.

Here is the, does this this matter stat of the game. Derek Carr has been very good in his last four games. In those four games, he has thrown, Heath, I'll give you this one, six touchdown passes of 25 or more yards. That is the most of any quarterback in that stretch. That's a lot. And, yeah, does that matter? And the only reason I asked, like,

it doesn't feel sustainable and I would like for a car to be on this hot streak with something, something sustainable. I'm wondering if maybe this means his production's a little fluky. What do you think? I think it matters a little bit. I wouldn't call it, I don't know if I'd go quite as far as fluky, but I don't think you, it's something that you can necessarily live on if you're in that 20 to 22-point range with those things happening. Now, what did he have, 26 last week? He was better last week. So he would have maybe been at 20 without one of those or 19.

But I am a little bit worried that this could be a game where he comes back to earth. But he's right in that Kirk Cousins range, and I think you start him over Cousins because he's not facing as good a defense. But you wouldn't start... It's also an over-under of 50.5. Right.

That's going to be a lot of points in this game. You wouldn't start him over Tua, would you? Oh, no. Getting close. Okay, and you guys have Watson one spot ahead of Derek Carr. You have Lamar Jackson two or three spots ahead of Derek Carr. So basically you have a four-player range of Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr is last.

The other three are ranked differently for you guys. But he's ahead of Aaron Rodgers. He's ahead of Cousins, Garoppolo, Tom Brady, et cetera. I think last week's game was pretty good for him from the standpoint of got behind early with the interceptions, rallied, didn't necessarily have to get it all from Devontae Adams. And, you know, that's the nice thing about, I think, where Derek Carr's game is at right now.

He started to correct himself with just doing the Rodgers and throwing to Adams all the time. And then now you're seeing Matt Collins a little bit more. You're seeing Foster Moreau a little bit more. You're seeing Josh Jacobs involved in the passing game a little bit more. So there's different guys emerging, which is nice. And then who knows? Because Josh McDaniel said that they're not sure,

but we might get both guys back next week, and Darren Waller and Hunter Renfro. And Derek Hart might end up being a guy you can rely on toward the end of the season. Okay, so knocking out this game somewhat quickly here, we've got a lot of must-starts. Justin Herbert is a must-start this week. The Raiders are a layup.

Austin Eckler is a must-start. Josh Jacobs is a must-start if he plays. True or false, Keenan Allen is a must-start? True. Yeah. Devontae Adams is a must-start? True. Devontae Adams is a must-start. False. What about Josh Palmer?

And what about Matt Collins, I guess? I know they're different. And DeAndre Carter. What about the wide receivers, Jamie? And then Heath, you can talk about tight ends. And Foster Merrill. Jamie, you give me the wide receivers. Heath, you give me the tight ends and

then we'll talk about zamir white uh josh palmer is a must start uh if mike williams is out uh deandre carter and mac hollins are number three receivers if needed not not must start number three receivers but in that range in the donovan people's jones paris campbell nico collins range um i would start them both over Chandler Burks, for example. Who else? That's it. Okay. And Heath, the tight ends.

Yeah, I think I am quite a bit different on Gerald Everett than everybody else, but I mostly would like to avoid him. He's at the bottom of the possible starters for me this week.

I just worry that Heath fits a lot better on a receiving core that's missing one guy if the guy who's missing is Keenan Allen instead of Mike Williams, because Williams does that downfield stuff and Allen works in the same area of the field. Foster Moreau, I do have ahead of Gerald Everett,

but not someone that I really want to start, neither of these guys top 12 tight ends. Let me ask you just a few more questions about guys like DeAndre Carter and Mac Hollins just for the desperate managers. I'm assuming you'd start Zay Jones over them. 100%. How about Adam Thielen?

They're close. I'd start Thielen, but they're close. How about Nico Collins or DeAndre Carter or Matt Collins? I would start both those guys over Nico. I would start Nico. Okay.

And Zamir White would be ranked where if Josh Jacobs were to miss this game? 18 to 22. I'm going to say 25. 18 to 22 and non-25-27 in full. He'd be my favorite replacement running back if Josh Jacobs were out. What do you think about that, suckas?

I mean, I don't think that's a huge stretch since you're talking about Jalen Warren maybe sharing with Benny Snell and Zonovan Knight sharing potentially with Ty Johnson. So yeah, it's not a... I don't think that's the hottest of hot takes, but it's certainly worth keeping an eye on. We could get to a situation where Jalen Warren,

Zonovan Knight, Zemir White, and Michael Hastie, and maybe a 49ers guy, are very, very popular this week. Hastie actually might be the best if ETN is out. I just feel like ETN's going to play. But the Chargers, a running back has gained 89 or more rushing yards against the Chargers in eight of their last nine games. They are absolutely dreadful against the run. And that stat that I gave earlier,

that 38 of Josh Jacobs' 40 catches have come on first and second down, it also makes me think that if Jacobs is out, Zemir White could still get three catches. It also could be Amir Abdullah. I guess so. And he's the one that they trust more. It's kind of what I said on Tuesday about like, Zonovan Knight makes

more sense than Ty Johnson, but Ty Johnson may end up being better. Also, Zemir White's averaging 4.7 yards per carry on 10 carries. YPC for life. Yeah, 10 carries. Denver's at Baltimore. It's the game of the week.

No, it's not the game of the week. How about the Broncos' defense, though? They're not giving up a lot of points in their last three games. 17, 16, 23 points in regulation in their last three games. But look at the big plays they're giving up. They've allowed... Okay, so in their first... Well, they've played 11 games. They've allowed, okay, so in their first, what, they've played 11 games?

In their first eight games, they gave up 15 completions of 20 or more yards. 15 in their first eight games. In their last three games, 13 completions of 20 or more yards. Fourth most in the NFL in that span. And how about this? Since the Bradley-Chubb trade, in their last three games,

the Broncos are 28th in pressure rate, and they have two sacks. In their first eight games, they were fourth in pressure rate, and they had 24 sacks. So it's not the matchup that it was based on the last three games. Heath, what does that mean for you when you evaluate the Ravens, if anything? I don't know that it does because they're not a normal offense. It gives me some hope that Lamar can hit one of those big passes and maybe Deshaun Jackson actually takes it to the house

instead of what happened last week. But still, I'm concerned about this Ravens offense. It just doesn't look right. I don't know if Mark Andrews is 100% healthy. And they just continually, every week, leave two or three touchdowns on the board. You're right. Off the board.

Yeah. Jackson or Watson? Jackson. Jackson for now. Boy, this quad injury, though. I mean, how many things is he going to be dealing with? He's been so beat up. He's had an illness.

Jackson or Tua? Tua for now, but don't really love either one. It's more just hoping that they're at their best. Who's the best running back in this game? The Gus bus, baby.

Heath, you agree? Over Latavius? Yeah, I've got Gus ahead of Latavius They're not far apart though They've given up a 100 yard rush to the Broncos to have three of the last four I think this is the easy formula for the Ravens to fix their offense

Look what Deontay Foreman and Chuba Hubbard just did Just run right at them You want to talk about physical running back against defense, this is the perfect way to do it Yeah, it's kind of sneaky The Broncos haven't really had a good run defense all year them. You want to talk about physical running back against defense, this is the perfect way to do it. Yeah, it's kind of sneaky. The Broncos haven't really had a good run defense all year. They've had a great overall defense, but not so

much against the run. The Ravens, passing game's easy. The only guy you're starting is Mark Andrews. Let's hope he comes through here. He's been on a little bit of a slump. Where does he rank in terms of bust this year? No, I don't think I'd call him that. Would you?

Yeah. Well, it depends. Were you drafting with Heath and you had to take him early in the second round? Or were you drafting without Heath and you had to take him in the third round? I mean, if we were... He hasn't been what Wade hoped he would be, but if the number two tight end is a bust, then we've got a list that is very, very low.

I agree. Is he a bust relative to his overall draft value? Is he? I don't know. What's his points per game? 14.3. Are we going to count the game he left early with an injury? Because I could azerstat it and make him look better.

I mean, according to you, sure, whatever you want it to be. What's his actual number? 14.3. Okay. Look at the first six games. He scored 23 or more points in four of the first six games. That's enormous. I guess maybe I'm just stuck with some recency bias.

It just feels terrible. Yeah. But the last two games have been 11 and 12 PPR fantasy points, which is bad for him. It's still not bad. Also a top five tight end for the season. 11 or 12 PPR fantasy points, which is bad for him. It's still, it's still not bad. So a top five tight end for the season. 11 or 12.

Right, right. Yeah. The position is just so, you know, I know what you're saying, but it's like you, you weren't expecting him to be in the top five. You know,

you're expecting to be clear one or two. Yeah. Right. Um, all right. Gus Edwards is, uh, 18th for Jamie and PPR 21stst for Heath, 25th for Dave.

Obviously, we know the problem. He doesn't catch any passes. Would you start Edwards or Devin Singletary? Edwards. Edwards. Would you start Latavius Murray or Devin Singletary? Latavius. Latavius, but they're very similar.

Are you confident in any Bronco? None. Heath? No, not confident in any Bronco? None. Heath? No, not confident. Sutton's my favorite. Yeah. Sutton, we'll do a few more Suttons here. First of all, we have to, you know,

if Judy plays, they're sitting Sutton, right? Yeah. I'm already trying to sit Sutton, so yes. Sutton or Gabe Davis tonight already trying to sit Sutton. So yes. Sutton or Gabe Davis tonight. I go. Uh, Sutton and PPR Davis. No.

Corlin Sutton or an Eagles or Devante Smith. Smith. Smith. Sutton or Slayton. Sutton. Sutton. Okay. Next game.

I think we have two left. Tennessee at Philadelphia. Woo! Think the Titans can win? What do you guys think? I think they can win. I don't think they will, but I think they'll cover the five. Mike Vrabel's so good. I don't think it should be that close, but I'm not going to doubt Vrabel.

Yeah. I mean, I'm so stunned by how good they've been defensively since they're by, in their last six games, they're third in yards per play. And I think a lot of people doubted it, maybe, going into that Bengals game. They held the Bengals to 20 points, I think. Burrow didn't even score 20 points.

With all that being said, like, there's... I'm starting Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, Devontae Smith, and I'm not really thinking about it. I think you should think about it. The one that makes me the most nervous, though, is Sanders. You knowJ. Brown, Devontae Smith, and I'm not really thinking about it. I think you should think about it. The one that makes me the most nervous is Sanders, just because he's going to need a lot of work. He's going to obviously need to score. I hope he's three catches again because that was fun to see,

at least just the involvement. So this team just does not give up rushing touchdowns. I know they got one for Samaje last week, but it's just not something that you see happen very often from this team. I think you should really think about the Eagles other than Jalen Hurts. but it's just not something that you see happen very often from this team. I think you should really think about the Eagles other than Jalen Hurts. I know you've got to start him, and you're going to start Brown because he gets so many touchdowns and green zone targets and end zone targets. We're a better game, baby.

Yeah, right, that too. Well, Devontae has like a 37% target share since Goddard went left. Yeah, what's he doing with it, though? It's crazy. You know, he's a guy who has two i think two green zone targets all year so touchdowns are hard to come by he just hasn't been that efficient the green zone is inside that we actually had a one star review on apple podcast it said stop saying green zone it's not a thing pretty sure it is no i will push on ben gretz said it before i said it so i'm that was me by the. I gave the one star. Thanks, Jamie.

I just want to bring this up because let's knock out the Titans. It's just Derrick Henry, right? Yep. Yes. Okay. Traylon Burks would be a boomer bus player. He's got three catches

in his last two games or something that are more than 40 yards or something crazy like that. Here's what I looked at here. Jalen Hurts has thrown 25 to 28 passes in 6 straight games in those 6 games AJ Brown has 67

or fewer yards 5 times but he has 6 touchdowns Devontae Smith has 50 or fewer yards 5 times in those 6 games he does however have 8 to 9 targets in 4 of his last 5 games last 6 games again Jalen Hurts 25 to 28 passes in those six games. He does, however, have eight to nine targets in four of his last five games. Last six games, again, Jalen Hurts,

25 to 28 passes in all six games. A.J. Brown is the number 17 wide receiver per game. Even with that three touchdown game against the Steelers, Devontae Smith is the number 48 wide receiver per game in PPR in the last six games. One last thing, and then I'll let you guys talk. So again, Jalen Hurts, not throwing a lot in the last six games.

He has faced five teams in those six games that are in the bottom six in pass attempts per game seen. In other words, he's faced teams that just teams don't throw on. The Titans, on the other hand, have seen the most pass attempts per game in the NFL. So will Jalen Hurts actually throw more? I don't think he will. That's not his thing.

And we need to reconsider, I think, the Eagles passing game because there's just so little volume there. That's just my take on it. And the Titans have been elite defensively since their bye week. So discuss. You're obviously starting A.J. Brown.

I don't care who they're playing, whether he's a number one or number two receiver. It doesn't matter. And I'm sure that this is, hey, Nick, hey, Nick, hey, Nick. I've talked a lot of trash about my former team. Let's dial up a few extra targets. Let's give me a few opportunities downfield. It feels like his downfield opportunities have certainly shifted since Dallas Goddard's been gone.

I think for Devontae Smith, you know, you're talking about a guy in the three games that Dallas got either hurt in the game that he got hurt and the two that he's missed. He's been basically eight plus targets. He's been 13 PPR points in two of those games. One touchdown or two touchdowns in those two games. At least one. I might be mistaken there. I'm sorry. Yeah, one. But, you know, I think there's just there's opportunities there against, again, the weakness of this defense, which is their pass defense as opposed to their run defense. And so if they can't run the ball, because last week it was, and I think if you recall I said this, the thing that I read about the Colts game was that saved them

in that final drive was they went back to their roots, as they said. They went back to running the ball, and it wasn't just on Miles Sanders, but they had success in that final drive. That carried over to last week. They ran the ball with a ton of success. That was a game you can run on, a team you can run on. This week, is it the same thing? No.

So, you know, I hope that they get a little game plan specific and get A.J. Brown going early, which has kind of been the case. He's usually been better in the first half than the second half. And Devontae Smith gets some opportunities as well. And hopefully Jalen Hurts throws the ball a little bit more. So I think you lean in. For me, I'm going to lean more toward the passing game than the run game for the Eagles, but I'm not, I'm with Heath. I'm not benching Miles Sanders coming off a 30 point game, but I think hopefully

he gets also three catches again, which would be nice. Yeah. A couple of things. Like I, I still will challenge the Titans being elite defensively when it comes to wide receiver production, because while they've given up the third most fantasy points this season to wide receivers, they've given up the ninth most fantasy points over the last three weeks while they've given up the third most fantasy points this season to wide receivers they've given up the ninth most fantasy points over the last three weeks they've given up the tenth most fantasy points the last five weeks they're still giving up a ton of fantasy points to wide receivers and i think when you talk about jalen hurt's pass volume and the number what javante smith and aj brown have done you really need to separate the last two weeks from the prior four because the prior four, they were chopping up those 28 pass attempts

with Dallas Goddard, and he's not there anymore, and no one's replaced him. That's true, but I would just say the Titans, the last three games, you said they've been bad against receivers. Well, I didn't say bad. I said they've given up the third most fantasy points. Okay, 42, 39, and 37 pass attempts. I think they've been good per attempt.

They've been better. They're not giving been good, you know, per attempt. They've been better. They're not giving up nearly as many big plays per attempt. It's just that teams are throwing so much on the Titans because they have such a great run defense. What strategy do the Eagles employ? And that's kind of what Jamie was talking about. They get a little more game plan specific. And, all right, it's something to keep an eye on here.

Yeah, and I just don't know, like, when you look at T. Higgins had 7 on 114 on a touchdown on nine targets. Like, it's not because he had— Yeah, but Tyler Boyd was terrible. Right. Well, Tyler Boyd had four targets. That wasn't a volume thing at all. Christian Watson scored 21 fantasy points on six targets.

Yeah, Alan Lazard was bad on 11 targets. I mean, I wouldn't—he had double-digit fantasy points still. Alright. You can parse up the numbers, but they've not stopped receivers from scoring fantasy points at any point this season. Okay. If they don't, if Jalen Hurts is

under 30 pass times in this game, unless he's just hyper-efficient and there's a lot of big plays, they're probably losing this game. Maybe. Okay, then. So, Miles Sanders or Devontae Smith, who's a better flex? Sanders and non-PPR, Smith and PPR. I'm waiting for it.

I don't want to get jaded by Sanders. Oh, half PPR? I don't want to get jaded by Sanders' performance last week. He was bad two, three weeks prior to that. Two weeks in a row, yeah. He scored fewer than six PPR fantasy points. Mm-hmm. Okay, finally, that's pretty much it.

Gus Edwards or Miles Sanders? I like Gus better. Wow. I definitely have Gus higher in non-PPR. I think it's more likely that Sanders catches two passes than it is Gus. I'll go Sanders in full PPR. Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, and Miles Sanders. How do you rank them?

Both Cowboys. I've got Pollard, Zeke, Sanders. Oh, okay. Pittsburgh's at Atlanta. This is our last game, stat of the game. These two teams allow the most completions of 20-plus yards. Long show today, so let's do this one quickly, and I think we can for the Falcons, right?

Jamie, give me the Falcons. Yep. Sit them all? Yep. Okay. The Steelers, I do think, give up the most fantasy points to wide receivers but said them all right good luck Lama day okay uh the Steelers Heath what do you think about the Steelers passing offense it's I I don't think it's as bad as the fantasy number suggests they just don't have the touchdowns I don't I think that there's a decent chance that we're getting a good Kenny Pickett game, but you can't rank it like that because

he's just not getting any help and they're not getting into the end zone. Pickett's a number two quarterback. I think he's my guy. I have right behind Mike White at number 18. Pickens and Deontay, I think, are both borderline number three wide receivers. I definitely prefer Pickens. And if they do give up the big plays, that should certainly help. I'm starting Pat Frymuth. By the way, we have reached 250 likes. Thank you to Thomas Schaefer for pointing that out. Sorry, I forgot about that.

Please comment your Twitter handle right now, and we are going to give away a free month of Paramount+. Go ahead and comment your Twitter handle. What I'm going to do tomorrow is going to look at the practice reports with all the running backs, and we'll start the show. Paramount Plus. Go ahead and comment your Twitter handle. What I'm going to do tomorrow is going to look at the practice reports with all the running backs, and we'll start the show talking about the four backfields that are sort of in flux right now. The Jets, the Steelers,

maybe the Five, the Jaguars, 49ers, and Raiders. And we'll just talk about all the replacement running backs. You and I are doing F-15-5 tonight, right? Yeah. So right now... Well, you and I are doing F-15-5 tonight, right? Yeah. We can do that then, too. Yeah.

So right now, Jamie, the highest-ranked running back you have for the Steelers is who, and where is he ranked? Jalen Morin is between 20 and 25, depending on the format. I think he has the most upside of the backfield there. I think it's a great matchup. Again, even for a smaller running back against this defense, he should have the opportunity to make some plays. Six straight games with 18 or more PPR points allowed by the Falcons to a running back. Hopefully, Jalen Warren does that for those of you who

picked him up. Imagine if George Pickens had caught the two touchdowns that he should have had in the last two games. Where he'd be right now in the minds of fans. He'd be Christian Watson. Yeah. You know, that's why I'm feeling DFS-y about him. But you know what? I kind of want to say it. I want to start him over Cortland Sutton. It probably would be a game-time decision for me.

Cortland Sutton or George Pickens? I don't think that's a bad call on non-PPR. I'll go Sutton. Yeah. There's so few targets. Six straight games. Sutton is basically, you know what you're getting. You're getting 12 or 13 PPR points if he plays his best.

If Russell plays his best, maybe he gets touched. But I mean, I've really been impressed with the way the Ravens have done against some wide receivers, including last week. Yeah, I'm with you. Against Kirk. All right, but you're going Sutton. Yep. Yeah, I'm with you. Against Kirk. All right, but here's going Sutton. And how about George Pickens or Zay Jones? They're almost back-to-back,

but I think Zay Jones has more upside. I have Zay Jones higher, but it's one that I'm struggling with. Steelers DST is eighth and ninth for Jamie and Heath, respectively. They've been good in three, very good in three or four games with TJ Watt. And that is it for these,

not even AFC home games. There are so few AFC home games. I think they're making a lot of NFC home games this week, but that's it for this slate. Six more games tomorrow and a recap of Thursday night. Live stream to... What's the game of the week? I don't know. I haven't figured it out yet i've got a bonus for anybody who's listening to hour and 20 minutes in adam i just saw this about tonight's game the line opened bills minus five and a half it's now bills minus three and a half

but 77 of the tickets have come in on buffalo interesting you care? That would tell you the Sharps are hammering the Patriots, I believe. I'm going to take the Bills. I'm going to bet the Bills right now, three and a half. All right, I have lost nine bets in a row, so let's see if we can make it an even ten. That was worth it. Talk to you later, everybody.

See you at 2 o'clock on our live stream, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday.