Fantasy Football Today - Start or Sit (NFC); Thanksgiving Recaps; Ravens-Steelers Update (11/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 27, 2020

Hope your Thanksgiving was awesome, now let's talk football! What should Fantasy managers and commissioners do about this Ravens-Steelers situation (2:30)? Will there be a Week 18 in the NFL season? A...nd let's recap Texans-Lions (10:30) and Washington-Cowboys (12:50) ... News and notes (15:35), stud RBs with tough matchups (20:10) like Raheem Mostert and CEH, "Beat the Waiver Wire" (24:00) and the Startometer (26:00) for SF-LAR, CHI-GB and SEA-PHI ... Start or Sit for Chiefs-Bucs (31:55), Panthers-Vikings (40:31), Raiders-Falcons (47:03), 49ers-Rams (55:40), Bears-Packers (58:10), Seahawks-Eagles (1:01:30) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Listen to the brand new Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-in-5/id1528634304 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:16 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Good morning or good afternoon to all you tired, stuffed fantasy football fans out there. You watched football, you ate some good food. I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving.
Starting point is 00:01:35 And now let's talk about the NFC home game. Six games to preview today. Of course, we'll look back at the two games from yesterday and talk about the Ravens-Steagallers game. Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg and Dave Richard. All right, guys.
Starting point is 00:01:46 How was your Thursday? Was it awesome? Was it rocking? It was great. How was yours? It was fine. How was your turkey? You know, I really have never made one before.
Starting point is 00:02:03 This was my first try. Whole Foods. I got it from Whole Foods it was a boneless turkey and we're still not really sure how that works but it was six and a half pounds of a boneless turkey which is enough for about 15 people I think there were only you know three of us
Starting point is 00:02:16 and they told us to cook it for 45 to 50 minutes it needed two hours and 15 minutes so it threw off our day a little bit just back in the oven back in the oven 45 to 50 minutes. It needed two hours and 15 minutes. So it threw off our day a little bit. Just back in the oven, back in the oven, back in the oven. It was really, but it ended up being okay. But you know, I had barely any of it because the side dishes were so much better. Now there's that.
Starting point is 00:02:37 How about you guys? Not exactly the same. My wife made a traditional Thanksgiving dinner. Everything was perfect. But I'm with you on the sides. Sometimes the sides are better than the turkey. Always wife made a traditional Thanksgiving dinner. Everything was perfect. I'm with you on the sides. Sometimes the sides are better than the turkey. Always, man. I went back for thirds of just sides alone. That's not a knock on the turkey, man.
Starting point is 00:02:54 It's just the sides. What were your two best sides? What were the two best? I love mashed potatoes, so I went back for mashed potatoes again. My wife made cranberry sauce, so I went back for that again. Then my brother-in-law made uh app like sweet apples oh terrific boston market does great cinnamon apples sure all right dave you it was in green beans for me what was this mashed potatoes sweet potatoes okay Sweet potatoes. Sweet potatoes. Okay. Oh, yeah. Marshmallows on top. Excellent.
Starting point is 00:03:27 So good. Yeah, we did the green bean casserole and the corn souffle. Those are my two jams. Nice. Okay, so Lamar Jackson tested positive. Guys, do you think this game's going to be played this week? It's not looking great, especially with the fact that the Ravens play Thursday
Starting point is 00:03:42 of week 13 against the Cowboys. So, there's going to have to be some, you know, probably multiple games being moved around if this game gets played this week, because they clearly cannot play Monday or Tuesday and then turn around and play Thursday. So I think there's still a chance, but at this point, you know, you got to start making preparations to have replacement options for Steelers and Ravens. And I don't know how many people feel comfortable with the Ravens to begin with at this point, you know, you got to start making preparations to have replacement options for Steelers and Ravens. And I don't know how many people feel comfortable with the Ravens to begin with at this point anyway. So,
Starting point is 00:04:12 you know, it's a, it's something that we'll probably find out by the end of the day, Friday. And, you know, maybe by the time we do the mailbag show, we have an answer for that.
Starting point is 00:04:19 Yeah, I think we should, well, we're going to have to do a bonus pot at some point, but there are so many questions to be asked right now. First of all, if RG3 is the quarterback and they get this game played, what does it do for Mark Andrews, Gus Edwards? Down grades?
Starting point is 00:04:35 Yeah. How much? Not as much for Edwards as it would be for Andrews. But then again, I would expect the Ravens to fall behind and lose this game and take away the running element so Edwards will probably fall to a low end number two running back at best Andrews you're still going to start because tight end pulse gets targets and that's really about it I think it finally you'll have a week where if you haven't gotten away from Hollywood Brown already now you can no one else in this offense is even worth considering in fantasy.
Starting point is 00:05:05 Yeah, but would you drop Andrews below like Hunter Henry? Yes. I think you have to do that, but not too much farther than that. Okay. So maybe still top 10. And then, you know,
Starting point is 00:05:19 we were talking on fantasy football today in five with Chris, and I actually posted it in this feed as well, that there might be a week 18. You know, Look, we're getting a lot more COVID cases right now across the country and in the NFL, a lot more in the NFL. It's a bit of a spike. So what should we do about this in terms of fantasy playoffs? Should we change anything? And also, I need to say this before I forget. I am going to let fantasy managers temporarily put Steelers and Ravens players in an IR spot to pick someone up to create a roster spot.
Starting point is 00:05:51 I did not do this back in week three or whatever it was when it was the Tennessee Steelers game because they were treating it as a buy. But this is a different situation. You shouldn't be penalized for this. So I am going to allow fantasy managers to use the IR spot for this game in particular just for now temporarily. If the game gets played, you're obviously going to have to make a roster decision
Starting point is 00:06:11 and bring those guys back off IR. I'm going to allow that flexibility for now. It's really the Steelers guys because Lamar is technically IR eligible if you have an IR spot. Dobbins and Ingram are IR eligible already because they've been placed on IR in CBS leagues, at least.
Starting point is 00:06:28 It's Andrews, it's Brown. What I'm saying is it's mostly Steelers guys. I was going to send this message to my leagues. I commissioned 10 leagues that you can do this, but I wanted to wait one more day because if the game gets played Monday or Tuesday, it's still...
Starting point is 00:06:44 I don't want people to just make random ad drops and start stashing players in IR spots until it's officially either postponed. So I waited personally to do that. Again, it's just, you know, something. That's okay. Yeah, that works. That's okay. You're planning to do it, and that's what's important. I think the NFL will do everything
Starting point is 00:07:00 they possibly can to get this game in. It'll come down to, are there more positive cases on the Ravens on Friday morning? Right. And again, I know we're doing the show Friday morning. I know you're going to post a little bit later, Adam, potentially. But for fantasy football today at 10 a.m. Eastern today,
Starting point is 00:07:18 we have Jason LaConfora on our show. And he reported last night that it's almost a certainty that they're not going to play this game in week 18 because of what the playoff ramifications will be for the Steelers at this point they would not risk any COVID cases if they don't have to play a game going into their body you know that could completely shatter their team if they have to have a COVID case and replace like they'd rather forfeit this game than play week 18 okay but last thing I just hold on uh on the week 18 thing I'm going to I'm
Starting point is 00:07:52 going to allow player uh managers to put these players on IR now because I don't want what I don't want is like okay someone's got the Steelers DST and their opponent to in a sort of smart way but also kind of a jerk way goes and adds DSTs or something like that to block them. I want to give these managers who are potentially going to have a game postponed some flexibility. But I totally understand where you're coming from, Jamie. Now, the whole Week 18 thing,
Starting point is 00:08:16 since that is a possibility for some replacement games, for some makeup games, should we do anything about that? Should we change our fantasy formats at all? Not yet. Nope. What I think it could come down to, however, is if enough games are rescheduled
Starting point is 00:08:31 to Week 18, you make Week 16 and 17 playoff-eligible weeks. And I don't know if that means that you extend your regular season or not. I don't know at what point we're going to know how many games are on Week 18, if there are games on week 18. But you could theoretically,
Starting point is 00:08:48 if your championship is in week 16, you can make your championship game week 16 and 17 and just have a two-week championship. Yeah, you see that a lot in baseball. Fantasy baseball. Alrighty, so that's that situation.
Starting point is 00:09:03 Let me tell you about CBS Sports HQ. It's at 10 a.m. Eastern today, so you probably won't even hear this podcast by the time it airs. But if you miss it, you can watch it on demand on the CBS Sports app on OTT devices. Go to the CBS Sports app on your smart TV and scroll down until you see the familiar faces of fantasy football today. Also, Sunday, we have FFT and 5 at 8.30 a.m. roughly in this feed and in the FFT and 5 feed. HQ from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. Twitch at noon Eastern. Twitch.com slash FF today and Twitch at 4 p.m. Eastern. The Lowe's home team watch party.
Starting point is 00:09:36 Bucks and Chiefs. Dante Hall and the Garrett Blunt will be joining the program. This is going to be hopefully an awesome game. And we have great games. We have a good time no matter what. But when we have great games, we have an awesome time in the home team
Starting point is 00:09:48 watch party presented by Lowe's. I want to tell you guys a little bit about a matchup I have with Ben Gretsch before we get into the games. So yeah, it's a big week for me. I'm in contention in most of my leagues. I need some wins. Going up against Ben Gretchen, our two-quarterback league, and it's PPR. I didn't have anyone going yesterday, and unfortunately, I faced Terry McLaurin. So I am in a bit of a hole. What?
Starting point is 00:10:16 Oh, I'm sorry. I also faced Duke Johnson. McLaurin and Duke Johnson. Yeah, it's tough. I forgot. I also faced Will Fuller. He had Will Fuller as well. Of course he did. So Will Fuller and McLaurin and Duke Johnson. Yeah, it's tough. I forgot. I also faced Will Fuller. He had Will Fuller as well. Of course he did. So Will Fuller and McLaurin and Duke Johnson.
Starting point is 00:10:30 So that's tough. That's a tough ring. Oh, wait. I'm sorry, Jamie. He also had Antonio Gibson. I forgot to mention. So that's Gibson, Johnson, Fuller, and McLaurin. But that's it, right? Oh, wait.
Starting point is 00:10:40 He has the Washington DST as well. So, yeah. But the good news is that the 2QB league and his quarterbacks really suck. He has Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. So, I'm down 90 to nothing facing Murray and Wilson. I had a similar experience, thankfully, on the other side of it where I'm playing Pat Mayo in the Flex Leagues. And I have Watson, Fuller, Gibson, McLaurin. Don't have the Washington BSC. Yeah, it was it was a it was a fun day. I think I'm up 112 to three.
Starting point is 00:11:15 Oh, that's not bad. I like your chances. I I'm playing against Colby Conway, a fantasy alarm in the Kings Classic, and he is a Texans fan, and he always drafts Texans. So you can imagine the hole that I'm in after Thursday's game. Yeah, well, a lot of you are, and here we go. Detroit and Houston, 41-25 Houston.
Starting point is 00:11:37 You know what? I even checked the results of the Twitter poll I posted. Who is the second best quarterback in the NFL? And I do the, I know, like I did it during the game. So I figured Watson would get a lot of love, but let's see the results there. Not for fantasy, but yeah.
Starting point is 00:11:49 What do you have any big takeaways from this game guys? We'll go through these games kind of quickly. He's got a lot to get to here, but any big takeaways from Houston in Detroit? I think you could be a little bit more comfortable, not confident, but comfortable with Duke Johnson. If he is the starter still in week 13.
Starting point is 00:12:04 Really? He had one great play and is the starter still in week 13. Really? A little bit. He had one great play, and he had fewer touches in this game than he did in his previous two. Yeah, but this was a blowout, so I don't really worry about that. I think he just looked, again, comfortable, not confident, that at least they threw him the ball,
Starting point is 00:12:15 that he did something productive, because he was miserable the first two games as the starter. So he's not a must-start guy by any stretch, but he's a guy that you can use as a flex. I think he was going to get dropped in a lot of leagues before this. If he doesn't catch that bomb, it's worse this week than the previous two weeks. And they never see the Texans.
Starting point is 00:12:34 You can't factor in. He would have much more touches if the game was closer. What about the pro size touchdown? Don't running backs typically get a lot of extra touches and blowouts? No, they didn't have to work in this way. It was a short week. He gets them down inside the five and then CJ Procise comes in.
Starting point is 00:12:47 Yeah, that was the weird part about it. That was weird. And I just, I can't, I can't sign off on that. I'm still very uncomfortable with Duke Johnson as a starting running back. You were bailed out if you started him this week
Starting point is 00:13:00 on that very uncharacteristic for the Texans deep ball catch. Yeah, props to Dave, by the way. Speaking of props, Dave on Fantasy Football Today in five. week on that very uncharacteristic for the Texans deep ball catch. Yeah. Props to Dave, by the way, speaking of props, Dave on fantasy football today in five, every Thursday morning gives you his favorite player props for the Thursday
Starting point is 00:13:12 games. And the two he picked were to Sean Watson under 39 and a half pass attempts. He threw 25. He had not thrown 30. That was an easy one. He had not thrown 40 all year. And Amari Cooper, what was it?
Starting point is 00:13:23 Over 59 and a half receiving yards. Something like, I, what was it? Over 59.5 receiving yards? I think it was 55.5. He had 112. Well done there. It was a very green Thanksgiving at the Richard House. Marvin Jones, 12 targets, but only six catches, 48 yards. Did we hang on to him? He got hurt late in the game, too.
Starting point is 00:13:39 I didn't see an update. Did we hang on to Marvin Jones? The severity of the injury. He has extra time to get ready. I mean, I think you want to hold on to him just in case Galladay's not back. Okay.
Starting point is 00:13:49 Again. Yeah, they have, they have Chicago next week, so that's not great, but still, the targets are good. Washington 41
Starting point is 00:13:58 and Dallas 16, and on the opening possession, two starting offensive linemen both leave with injuries, one of them being Zach Martin, who's an all-pro guard who was playing right tackle. Yeah, so they ended up losing both of their tackles. And they lose 41-16 as well.
Starting point is 00:14:15 So is it even a question at this point, who would you rather have rest of season, Antonio Gibson or Ezekiel Elliott? No, no question. It's Gibson, right? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, that game was lost on that drive with the two tackles, Or Ezekiel Elliott? No, no question. It's Gibson. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that game was lost on that drive with the two tackles. And then when C.D. Lamb dropped the touchdown. So they couldn't overcome the score once that happened
Starting point is 00:14:33 because they had to sell it for a field goal. It would have been a tie game if Lamb catches the ball. And then obviously Antonio Gibson scored the two touchdowns after that. Well, what about the fake punt? I think that might have swung the game too. That was a pretty terrible coaching decision. Yeah. On fourth and 10.
Starting point is 00:14:48 Fourth and 10 on their own, like 25. And they went for it on fourth and one in their own territory earlier in the game too. But that I can kind of get. Yeah. You know, I always wonder, I don't know if you guys know the answer to this when they tell you,
Starting point is 00:15:00 well, the analytics say you should go for it here. Do the analytics, I really don't know the answer to this, do they factor in the quality of your offense? Because it's different if you're the Chiefs going for it on fourth and one compared to the Cowboys, and that's why I didn't think it was a good decision. They're not good enough. There's also so many different fourth and ones.
Starting point is 00:15:18 There's fourth and an inch, there's fourth and an inch and a half. And what about factoring in the quality of the defense you're going up against? It's always the ball placement. It's never who you are and what you're facing. Yeah, in terms of the analytics you mean? Right. And then that's silly. It shouldn't be blanket statements about you should go for it here. But I digress.
Starting point is 00:15:38 Other takeaways from this game, McLaurin was his typical self. He just cannot score touchdowns because they don't throw touchdowns. Did anything else jump out at you guys? Like, do we need to hang on? I know it sounds crazy,
Starting point is 00:15:51 but do we need to hang on to CD lamb? He is 93% rostered. I mean, he was okay last week with the touchdown, but you know, again, if you want to take that away, it wasn't a great game.
Starting point is 00:16:01 Um, yeah, I think you want to hold on to him. I don't think he's a must start guy by any stretch. He's a flex, right? We wouldn't call him a number two wide receiver at this point, and I don't know that the Cowboys season is going in a positive direction. I could see getting rid
Starting point is 00:16:14 of CeeDee Lamb if he wanted to next week when waivers run. Alrighty. JD McKissick did not have a good game. Wasn't a huge surprise. It's kind of what Dallas does, and we thought Washington had a good chance to win. That's not good necessarily for McKissick did not have a good game. Wasn't a huge surprise. It's kind of what Dallas does. And we thought that Washington had a good chance to win. That's not good necessarily for McKissick. Cool.
Starting point is 00:16:30 All right, news and notes. Quarterback stuff. Tua was limited, but it seems like he's expected to play. I'll tell you this, though. I'm going to keep Ryan Fitzpatrick. I picked him up a couple days ago in a 2QB league. I'm going to keep him, just in 2QB, because he's been really good when he started.
Starting point is 00:16:47 And if Tua has another bad game, you never know what they could do. They're trying to make the playoffs. I think they told you what they could do. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, right. Trubisky expected a start. Teddy Bridgewater expected a play.
Starting point is 00:16:58 He's 60% rostered. So where you guys end up with him, we'll preview that game. But Bridgewater in your rankings. Top 20. Agreed. Geo was limited, but Bridgewater in your rankings. Top 20. Agreed. A geo was limited, but still on the concussion protocol.
Starting point is 00:17:10 Savan Ahmed missed practice. Do we have any insight in who the starting running back for the Dolphins is going to be? I mean, all the practices yesterday were, you know, guesstimates. So, you know, I think at this point, you just got to see what happens Friday.
Starting point is 00:17:22 I'd be surprised if Miles Gaskin plays. What about Adam Thielen? Don't know. Yeah, still on the reserve COVID list. So is Larry Fitzgerald. He's going to miss the game at New England. Cleveland's dealing with some COVID cases, but don't know who. They're at Jacksonville.
Starting point is 00:17:40 Rams leading tackler, Micah Kaiser, he's on IR. He'll miss at least three games. Tampa Bay center, AQ Shipley. I believe he was a backup center that had been playing recently. He may have a career-ending neck injury. So that's just awful news. They are getting Ali Marpet back, though. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:17:58 Chris Carson limited in practice. Are we reasonably confident that Carson's going to play? I thought he practiced in full on Wednesday, so I don't know if there's a downgrade. Okay. I can double check it, but I would assume that they list him as questionable for the game no matter what his status is on Friday.
Starting point is 00:18:18 That's just how they... Actually, no. Don't they have the Monday game this week? They have the Monday game. Right, but they had a Thursday. Didn't they play Thursday the week before? Yes. They did but they had a Thursday, right? Didn't they play Thursday the week before? Yes. They did. Yeah, so they had, I guess, a walkthrough on Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:18:29 Yeah, but did they have to file an injury report? Usually, you don't. If you play on Monday, you file on Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Thursday's Thursday, yeah. Yeah. Well, let us know what you find, Dave. So, look, if he participated in the Wednesday walkthrough and he was limited on Thursday, then I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll have him on Monday. All the expectations are he's going to play.
Starting point is 00:18:47 Barring a setback, expect him to be out there. Don't drop Carlos Hyatt, though. What about the Chargers running backs? Do we know who's going to start there? We don't know if Eckler is going to play, but he has been activated. He can practice. Kalen Balazs was limited in practice,
Starting point is 00:19:06 so the injury that he suffered late in their last game doesn't seem to be totally hobbling him. You got to wait and see. That's when we'll get some more answers on Friday and Saturday. I want to talk about a couple of potential sleeper tight ends if you're stuck. Because Irv Smith and Tyler Higbee both could miss their games. That's Irv Smith facing Carolina, Tyler Higbee facing San Francisco.
Starting point is 00:19:29 San Francisco has been great against tight ends. Carolina, not quite as much. And Rudolph's been pretty okay lately. I mean, he's getting some decent yards. So when you look at Rudolph and Everett, and Everett did score a touchdown in one game without Higbee, are these guys good sleepers? And who would you prefer between Kyle Rudolph and Gerald Everett?
Starting point is 00:19:47 Rudolph, for sure, if Thielen is out and Irv Smith is out. I mean, you know, that's a big option for Kirk Cousins. They like each other. You could see the rapport, you know, and so you mentioned it, you know, Rudolph's numbers, the best game was the one game Irv Smith missed already. You know, so Smith had the two touchdowns, missed his next game. Rudolph had a fumble in that game.
Starting point is 00:20:07 But he had, I think, five targets, four catches, 63 yards, if I'm not mistaken. And, you know, would certainly be a better fit for me, at least, with somebody I'd look to pick up over Everett just facing the San Francisco defense. A few more injuries. MVS. Both will be better than Jordan Aikens.
Starting point is 00:20:24 Oh, two dropped touchdowns. I should have mentioned that. Dropped will be better than Jordan Aikens. Oh, two dropped touchdowns. I should have mentioned that. Dropped two touchdowns, Jordan Aikens. One was tough, though. Yeah, but he did drop two touchdowns. Yeah, two end zone touchdowns. So Raheem, before Mostert, Devontae Adams was limited. MVS was limited.
Starting point is 00:20:37 We're expecting them. And Akeem Hicks mispracticed with a hamstring injury. Aaron Jones has not been tearing it up lately. So it would be good for him if Akeem Hicks' defensive tackle for a hamstring injury. Aaron Jones has not been tearing it up lately, so it would be good for him if Hakeem Hicks' defensive tackle for the Bears missed this game. San Francisco could get so many players back this week. Mostert, Coleman, Wilson, and Richard Sherman has a possibility of being back this week at the Rams.
Starting point is 00:20:58 More on that in a second. Oh, yeah, Adebo, right. Sorry. More on that in a moment. Brandon Ayuk still on the reserve COVID list, though, as of now. So we're going to go right to that game, yeah, Adebo, right. Sorry. More on that in a moment. Brandon Ayuk still on the reserve COVID list, though, as of now. So we're going to go right to that game, actually. Let's talk about, got six games to preview today. Six NFC home games. And in three of them, I think we have kind of must-start running backs
Starting point is 00:21:18 with very tough matchups. And why don't we start with Raheem Mostert at the Rams? First of all, we don't know the workload that he'll get. But in their last seven games, the Rams have allowed no more than 10 non-PPR or 12 PPR running backs, or fantasy points to a running back. So look, if you get 10 non-PPR, 12 PPR, that's not bad.
Starting point is 00:21:38 But that's the ceiling right now against this Rams run defense. It has been tremendous. So Raheem Mostert, start or sit? He's a start, but he's the number two running back. And I think most times this year when he's been healthy, he's been ranked inside the top 15. You know, a guy you feel a lot, I feel very comfortable starting.
Starting point is 00:22:00 You know, so I think it just depends on what you have on your team. Losing Kizer's, you know, at least a change in that defense. So we'll see how that impacts them. But I trust Kyle Shanahan. I trust this run offense. I trust Raheem Oster. So it's not a slam dunk, but it's a pretty good starting option for him.
Starting point is 00:22:19 I think you'd be hard-pressed to bench him unless you have a lot of great options. That's the best way to put it, because I think unless you have a lot of great options. That that's the best way to put it, because I think there aren't a lot of great running backs. Once you get to like, I don't know. I'm looking at my non PPR rankings now, maybe like 20th in non PPR at RB. I think that most of it might be the best of the rest at that point,
Starting point is 00:22:39 but it's a tough matchup and we, we don't know just how much work he's going to get compared to the other running backs. McKinnon is obviously healthy. He can take passing downs. Is Coleman going to take work away? Is Jeff Wilson going to take work away? So I'd be a little cautious in starting them. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:56 What about, let's say the game gets played Gus Edwards or Mostert. I'd still start Gus. I would start Mostert now that there's no Lamar Jackson. Okay. Gallman over Mostert? Oh, yes. All right.
Starting point is 00:23:11 What about Clyde Edwards-Ziller against Tampa Bay? You know how many running backs have more than 60 yards? Yeah. You know how many running backs have more than 60 rushing yards against Tampa Bay? Zero. So they're almost in the same boat, right? How many have more than 50? One. It was Christian McCaffrey. I would say they're in the same same boat, right? How many? More than 50?
Starting point is 00:23:25 One. It was Christian McCaffrey. I would say they're in the same... Yeah, and you know what? Raheem Mostert, gotta give him credit because he's about three catches a game when he's been healthy, which has been surprising. Clyde Edwards-Elair.
Starting point is 00:23:37 And only two running backs and more than 12 carries against the Bucs, by the way. This is a really tough matchup for Clyde, no question. I would actually, though, say the Rams' run defense has been better than the Bucks since the injury to Villavea but both have been great yeah right yeah so which who do you like better Moster or Clyde I have Clyde a spot higher same in non-PPR and PPR it's a no-brainer that it's Clyde why to think about that though because
Starting point is 00:24:03 I feel like Clyde's passing game involvement is a little overrated, a little inconsistent. Sure. It's not a no-brainer. It's very close in both. I think they're a very similar type of guys. Yeah, I think that you give Clyde the edge, probably, because you're not as concerned about...
Starting point is 00:24:20 I don't know. I was going to say you're not as concerned about workload, but maybe, I don't know, maybe you should be. But they're both in the number two running back. Yeah, they're not slam dunk starts. Okay. Would you start David Montgomery in the dream matchup against Green Bay over these guys?
Starting point is 00:24:36 No way. No? I bet Heath would. Actually, I don't know. I don't know. I'll check. The last one was Chris Carson. The Eagles really do have a great run defense. 3.43 yards per carry.
Starting point is 00:24:47 Why are they good? Fletcher Cox, he's going to play. And Brandon Graham. You know, all those guys whose names I know correctly. Yeah, I'm starting Chris Carson. He's a top three guy. Me too. Okay.
Starting point is 00:25:01 All right, good segment. Let's beat the waiver wire. Let's look ahead to week 13. So tell me if there are any names that come to mind. too. Yeah. Okay. All right. Good segment. Let's beat the waiver wire. Let's look ahead to week 13. So tell me if there are any names that come to mind. I think you look at players who have a lot of upside. If they get opportunity, cam makers could be that guy. He's 48% roster.
Starting point is 00:25:15 Debo Samuel. What's that? RG three. Against Alice. Maybe. Yeah, sure. Uh,
Starting point is 00:25:24 Debo against Buffalo, but just more of a long-term thing. Lazard, MVS, if they keep it going. Sterling Shepard at Seattle next week. Nelson Aguilar at the Jets. John Brown. John Brown, when he plays, he's been really good. Rashard Higgins.
Starting point is 00:25:41 You got a useless... Yeah, Rashard Higgins. You got a useless roster spot, somebody you don't need anymore. These are names to just, just stash, put away Seattle's DST 78% rostered. So hard to get them,
Starting point is 00:25:51 but at Philadelphia, then the giants, then the jets Philadelphia, this week, DST giants jets Vikings. Yeah. They have a Jacksonville. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:25:59 Please start Mike Lennon next week too. Green Bay against Philadelphia. The Raiders DST is at the Jets. This is actually a pretty good beat the waiver wire week. Do you have Brian Hill on your list? No. No, I don't.
Starting point is 00:26:12 Because Todd Gurley showed up on the injury report with a knee, did not practice on Wednesday, and then the estimation was that he did not practice on Thursday either. Okay, yeah. Yeah, you'd like him for this week.
Starting point is 00:26:22 You don't want him next week though. Next week is who? The Saints. Saints, okay'd like him for this week. You don't want him next week, though. Next week is who? The Saints. Saints. Okay. This week is the Raiders. Quarterbacks won't be as easy. Oh, here's one. Andy Isabella. Because Fitzgerald?
Starting point is 00:26:35 Yeah. They have the Rams next week. Right. But, you know, who knows how long he could be out. Yeah, quarterbacks not as easy. Lamar Jackson being out, RG3's really not a bad option. Tua against the Bengals. Daniel Jones at Seattle. Luckily, they're only two teams on by.
Starting point is 00:26:58 Unfortunately, one of them is the Bucs, also the Panthers, next week. All right, so there are some names to know. The Stardometer. The last three games we're going to get to today are the Rams Niners, the Bears Packers, and Seahawks Eagles. So let's do it the way we did it yesterday.
Starting point is 00:27:13 Who are you confident in, confidently starting in these games? Let's start with San Francisco and the Rams. Who are you confidently starting in this game? Cup, Cooper, Woods, Robert. Okay, should you be? I know they were amazing last week, but they really were kind of hit or miss before that.
Starting point is 00:27:34 You can't bench them, though. You probably can't bench them. The only way you could even think about benching them is if you think the Rams' run game is going to be crushing it against the 49ers. By the way, that's only kind of the correlation. It's not foolproof. Heath is definitely
Starting point is 00:27:51 not higher on David Montgomery than he is on Clyde Edwards-Elair because he's pretty high on Clyde Edwards-Elair. He's got him top 13 and he's somewhat low on Montgomery. Not as low as you guys but more like 24-25, 23-24. Okay. Just letting you know. Interesting. Cup does
Starting point is 00:28:07 have a terrible track record against San Francisco, but the Niners slot corner is suspended for the next two games. So the matchup gets a little bit easier for them, and it's not like the defense is playing at a great level this year anyway. It definitely would help them if they have Richard Sherman back, but
Starting point is 00:28:23 still, I'm not benching those guys. Okay. And then how do you feel about Jared golf? I think he's in that, uh, you know, number two quarterback range. Uh, he's got a very good track record against the 49ers surprisingly, given what their defense is last year, he had a miserable game against them in one matchup and then he bounced back against them. He had one point in the first meeting and then 23 points in the second meeting, which was later in the year. But he typically plays well against the 49ers. Part of that is, you know, 49ers two years ago and how they looked,
Starting point is 00:28:53 or the previous two years, 2017, 2018. But I think Goff is playing well enough. I mean, he's over 600 passing yards the last two weeks. Didn't have a great fantasy game against Seattle, but he did have a very good one last week with three touchdowns. So you just kind of know what you're getting. He's not going to be consistent.
Starting point is 00:29:08 I think if you're looking for 18 to 20 points, he'll be okay. If you're hoping for 24 or 25 plus, you're probably going to be disappointed. I think you're starting for the exact same reasons why you're starting Cup and Woods. It's the upside. And the 49ers have allowed some amazing numbers to some quarterbacks over their last six games, 30 plus. Yeah, two of their last three. I mean, the last one against the Saints was bad, but
Starting point is 00:29:27 obviously no happened in that game. Yeah, right. 49ers, sometimes they're just horrible. You know, they've just had the Dolphins game, the Packers game, Seahawks that got lit up. So they're just, you know, sometimes the injuries really catch up with them. Last guy in this game, just how confident are you in Jordan Reed? Jordan Reed.
Starting point is 00:29:44 He also showed up on the injury report with an illness. Non-COVID related, though. Oh, illness. As of now. But again, something you got to keep an eye on. So if he's there, I think he's a low-end starter. If he's not there, then I don't think you're going to start Ross Dwelly. Okay.
Starting point is 00:30:00 Like, I think you pivot to Kyle Rudolph. The Rams have allowed one touchdown to a tight end in their past seven games. The Bears and the Packers. Who are you confidently starting in this game? Rodgers. Devontae Adams, if he plays, which assuming he's going to. Still Aaron Jones. Oh, yeah, Aaron Jones and Allen Robinson.
Starting point is 00:30:20 And Packers DST. Yeah, you guys are not. Heath is pretty high on Robinson. You guys are not. I mean, he's like borderline. He's like right around 24. And it kind of makes sense. Yeah, but it's a great week for receivers.
Starting point is 00:30:34 I think you got to be in a real. He's obviously better in PPR than non-PPR. But it's one of those things where you know he's going to get targets. And I think you just kind of buy into the hope of they come off their bye week and it's, you know, we got to make the playoffs, feature our best guys. Plus it's Trubisky, you know, so who knows if that helps him or hurts him. Well, it hasn't been good for him. His three games with Trubisky, five catches, 74 yards on nine targets at Detroit,
Starting point is 00:31:02 33 yards on nine targets against the Giants. And then he actually did have 71 yards and a little bit more than a half against the Falcons. But then he had- Last year, they were fine together. Yeah, yeah, that's true. You know, in the last five games, Allen Robinson's on pace for 90 catches,
Starting point is 00:31:20 1,069 yards, and three touchdowns on 122 targets. His first five games, he was on pace for 182 targets. Last five games, 122 targets. So that's been a little bit more, probably a little bit more Darnell Mooney. Miller's come on a little bit. He also left one of those games.
Starting point is 00:31:38 Would you, yeah, true. Would you, that was like super late though. It was also overtime. Would you start Allen Robinson over Clyde Edwards-Elair? In PPR, yes. Easy. Okay. Seattle or Philadelphia, who are you confidently starting?
Starting point is 00:31:55 Russ? DK? Lockett. Carson, if he plays. Sanders? If he doesn't. Seahawks, DST. Miles Sanders? Yep. Yep. That's't. Seahawks, DST. Miles Sanders?
Starting point is 00:32:06 Yep. Yep. That's it. All right. Wait a minute. Dallas Goddard? Oh, right. Yeah, I guess Goddard.
Starting point is 00:32:12 I'm down with Dallas Goddard. Seattle's been pretty good against tight ends, no? Yeah, but that's who Wentz is connecting with. It sounds like Ertz may play, so that kind of ruins it. That could change things. That would be really bad for Richard Rodgers. Let's see. Seattle.
Starting point is 00:32:29 Actually, no. So in their last six games, I was wrong. They have allowed, listen to this, 57 to 64 yards to this collection. Herb Smith, Dan Arnold, and Tyler Higby. 57 to 64 yards. And touchdowns to this collection. Ross Dwelley, Tyler Croft, and Dan Arnold. However, they did shut down George Kittle,
Starting point is 00:32:50 and unfortunately they injured him. Two catches, 39 yards, and four targets. So I wouldn't say they've been that good against tight ends. My bad. Our first game today is, of course, the home team watch party presented by Lowe's Game, Kansas City at Tampa Bay. You already got the stat of the game.
Starting point is 00:33:06 Only two running backs have more than 12 carries against the Bucs. Only one running back has more than 50 rushing yards. It was McCaffrey, and he did not even get to 60 rushing yards. So we already talked enough about Clyde Edwards-Elair. Go ahead and listen to that segment about stud running backs with tough matchups. Patrick Mahomes is a top two quarterback. You're going to start him. I don't know why I even waste time with the Chiefs. It's just Clyde is who you talk about. You start Hill. You start Kelsey. How about Sammy Watkins? He's coming
Starting point is 00:33:33 back. We do see some number two receivers do pretty well against the Buccaneers. What do you think about Watkins this week? Well, I think the fact that you say he's coming back, we've got to wait and see because at this point, I think it was either last week or two weeks ago he was coming back last week as of Friday as well and then didn't play so it's I wouldn't trust him you know you you want to see him play at least once uh it's a great week for wide receivers there's no teams on a buy you know so if you're
Starting point is 00:33:59 in the deepest leagues and you know your choices were Larry Fitzgerald or Sammy Watkins you play Watkins clearly if you're considering Meikle Hardman or Sammy Watkins you know maybe you pivot that way they did place Byron Pringle on IR so maybe that helps Hardman but I think at this point you just got to realize that the number two receiver for the Chiefs is not going to be a consistent fantasy producer may have a good week it could be Robinson could be Watkins it could be Hardman it's just too hard to gauge right now he is still still out there, though, in 40% of leagues. So if you wanted to put him on your bench, I think he's a good bench receiver
Starting point is 00:34:30 rest of season. Yep. Just to ask this question, you don't think Carlton Davis is going to shut down Tyreek Hill, do you? No. No. Okay. So let's go over to the Bucs. Did you see the yards after catch clinic that the Rams put on the bucks last week.
Starting point is 00:34:47 Yeah. Oh yes, I did, but that's not exactly going to be able to wrap up. They can touch them. Yeah. Carlton Davis. I just,
Starting point is 00:34:54 I'm going to try to look it up. I keep saying I'm going to look things up. So I'll update you on one thing. I did this poll. So I can say anything you want to hear. It's not going to sway me. No, no,
Starting point is 00:35:03 no, I know. It's just for football fans out there. I did the poll. Who's the going to sway me. No, no, no. I know. It's just for football fans out there. I did the poll. Who's the second best quarterback in the NFL? Russell Wilson running away with it with 60% of the vote. Aaron Rodgers, 27% Deshaun Watson, 11% Lamar Jackson, 2%. How about that? What do you think this poll would have been last year? Lamar Jackson probably would have been the leader. Probably. Okay. Aaron Rodgers. Let's go to the Bucs.
Starting point is 00:35:29 And Jamie, Tom Brady, start of the week. He's the start of the week. I think he's going to have a bounce back game. I think it's going to be a high scoring affair between these two teams. I don't trust the Chiefs defense to stop the Bucs offense. It's a day game. The old man gets to play in the daytime. And he's been clearly much better during the day than he has at night. In five of seven day games he's out scored at least 23 fantasy points in five of those
Starting point is 00:35:49 so um in night games he's been miserable so i i think he's going to be a shootout the last two quarterbacks against the chiefs have scored 27 or more fantasy points and that's teddy bridgewater and their car so i think you know brady's going to be not a top five guy, but a guy you should feel comfortable going back to. Cool. Hey, Spagnuolo was the defensive coordinator of the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, right? Yes.
Starting point is 00:36:15 And he's now the defensive coordinator of the Chiefs. I'm not going to tell you to sit Tom Brady, but I just think that that's a funny wrinkle. Yeah. He's taken down Brady before in the biggest of spots, and we know that the offensive line could be an issue for Tampa Bay. It makes me...
Starting point is 00:36:32 It would make sense. Hopefully that's what they do. It is something that... They left tackle mispractice for a couple of days this week. Was he the defensive coordinator the second time? I don't remember who their second defensive coordinator was.
Starting point is 00:36:47 I think it was 42, but I don't think he was there for 46. No, he wasn't. He was probably on the Rams by then. He was the DC of the, yes. He was the coach of the Rams, I think, yeah. Okay, who cares? All right, so Bucs running back, start or sit? I like Rojo in non-PPR.
Starting point is 00:37:08 And I think I would expect the Bucs to try to get their run game going in a bounce-back attempt after last week. And Chiefs have been okay. They've given up some numbers to running backs. I think it's 11-plus non-PPR for the past six. And I think they rank sixth in most rushing yards allowed per game this season. They're getting better.
Starting point is 00:37:31 They are getting better. They've had, I think, six games out of ten with both Chris Jones and Mike Pinnell. Maybe seven games. They're starting to get better. I mean, look at the last two games. Christian McCaffrey, 18 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown. He also had a huge game receiving, but we don't expect that from Jones. Can't have that.
Starting point is 00:37:50 Josh Jacobs, 17 carries, 55 yards and a touchdown. So both these guys had 17 to 18 carries, but they really struggled running the ball, and they both did score. But, you know, okay, so is Ronald Jones above or below the Mostert-Edwards-Elair line? Below. Below, okay, so is Ronald Jones above or below the Mostert-Edwards-Ziller line? Below. Below, okay. Is he ahead of the Rams?
Starting point is 00:38:10 Yeah, he's ahead of the Rams, guys. He's ahead of Fournette. Yeah, for me, I think, you know, like a good comparison is Dave Montgomery because, you know, both guys are going to get work. How much work, you never know with Rojo, depending on how the game flow goes. But he has a better chance of scoring than Fournette does at this point, even though Fournette scored last week. Fournette's touches haven't exactly been there.
Starting point is 00:38:30 This game feels more like a Fournette game because it's going to be more evolved, I think, through the air. But I don't think you can trust any of these guys on the conference. So would you start like Nelson Aguilar over Ronald Jones? I think in a PPR league, I think there's more upside for Aguilar.
Starting point is 00:38:48 Yeah. Although it could be a one-target game for Aguilar. It's always the rest. I'm surprised you guys didn't have Aguilar higher. We're going to talk about the game in a little bit. The Tampa Bay wide receivers. Rank them. Evans, Godwin, Brown. Yes, Dave.
Starting point is 00:39:05 Okay. And how many of them are must starts? Two. But three in three receiver leagues. And would you start Antonio Brown over Ronald Jones? Yes. PPR for sure. I'll probably go with Jones and none.
Starting point is 00:39:22 Would you start Antonio Brown over Clyde Edwards-Elair? PPR for sure. Definitely not none. Okay. Does it mean anything to you that Kansas City allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers? And another thing that they don't do, they do not give up big pass plays.
Starting point is 00:39:38 This is one of my favorite stats. They've given up four pass plays of 40 plus yards this year. All of them were in one game against the Raiders. Raiders. They lost. That's something that Spagnuolo does. They don't give up. That's kind of their philosophy.
Starting point is 00:39:51 So, I don't know. Does that mean anything to you? This is not, on paper, a good matchup. It makes me like those receivers even more in PPR. If they're going to take away the deep ball with their zone defense, then it's going to be a lot of shorter throwing underneath. Helps all three of these guys. How has Brady been throwing the deep ball lately?
Starting point is 00:40:07 I wonder. Pretty bad. Yeah. So that's kind of a fun storyline. Yeah. It might be a lot of underneath stuff to these guys. I wonder if they, they try and change their philosophy for this game,
Starting point is 00:40:18 knowing that Brady's been so bad at connecting long that they move the safeties up a little bit and make it harder for Brady to throw inside of 15 yards. Would you start any of these? That allows them to get more pressure on Brady, too. I bet that's what they do. Any of these Bucs wide receivers over Robert Woods or Cooper Cup? Evans.
Starting point is 00:40:42 I'd start Godwin, too. Okie dokie. And starter sit Rob Gronkowski. I'd start him. Low end starter. Okay. Gronkowski or Eagles? If there's just Goddard, Goddard.
Starting point is 00:41:00 If there's Goddard and Ertz, I might go Gronk just to avoid the headache. I think I'd go Goddard either way. Here's what I wanted you to know about Carlton Davis. He's actually seen the most attempts against as a primary defender, which is weird. 78 times he's been the primary defender on a target. His passer rating against is 43.4. That's pretty good.
Starting point is 00:41:25 He is so good. Man, I hope that they put him on Tyreek Hill. I just want to see it. I want to see what happens. All right, Carolina is at Minnesota. A number of stats of the game. Number one, I just want to apologize to Mike Davis. I have been a little critical of him lately,
Starting point is 00:41:43 and I think it's been deserved because he hasn't been that good. But I really sort of neglected to mention his competition has been so hard in the last five games he's played without Christian McCaffrey. It's been the Bears, the Saints, the Falcons, who actually have a pretty good run defense, the Bucs, and then the Lions, who actually aren't that bad per carry, but they do give up touchdowns and he scored. So my apologies to Mike Davis. Competition gets a little easier this week. Stat of the game number two, Curtis Samuel, guys. Look at Curtis Samuel's PPR points in his last five games.
Starting point is 00:42:17 16, 21, 26, 3, and 21. So are Mike Davis and Curtis Samuel good starts, great starts? What do you think? Davis is a good start. PPR, he's a very good start. Samuel is a good flex because you're hoping that he has one of – you're hoping he scores a touchdown as a red zone weapon for the Panthers. That's really what he is. Davis or Clyde Edwards-Ziller?
Starting point is 00:42:41 Davis. Davis. Davis, top 10 guy. Curtis Samuel or Antonio Brown? Davis. Davis top 10 guy. Curtis Samuel or Antonio Brown. Brown. But it's close. I think I have Samuel right there. Okay. How about the top two Bucs guys versus the top two. Well, maybe
Starting point is 00:42:55 Curtis Samuel is higher than Robbie Anderson for you. But the other two Panthers guys. Versus Godwin and Evans? I do a Brown ahead of Samuel. I apologize. What's your question? Godwin, Evans versus DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson.
Starting point is 00:43:19 Evans, Moore, Godwin, Samuel, Anderson. So you like DJ Moore this week? Yeah, you got to. And as as for Robbie Anderson he's not getting red zone targets the other guys are he's not getting deep targets as often as he was earlier in the year and I I think he's going to be okay for you know a six for 60 type of stat line might make him a decent flex and full PPR. Okay. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:46 Minnesota. I mean, the good wide receivers tend to destroy Minnesota. Like, I mean, the Devante Adams, Julio Jones is of the world. They just have the best.
Starting point is 00:43:57 I think Anderson's okay. I mean, his targets are basically the same. You know, he had the one down game two weeks ago with six targets, but he had nine last week, 13, two games ago. He's been basically eight targets a game.
Starting point is 00:44:07 He's still heavily involved. It's just he's not producing the same level. He's gone scoreless in 10 straight games. He's become DJ Moore. The touchdowns aren't there for him. He's a PPR guy. Him and Antonio Brown are the same guy at this point.
Starting point is 00:44:23 Okay. That seems like a pretty good comparison. The Vikings do give up the fourth most fantasy points, the wide receivers. But like I said, it's that's on the, that's on the year. They've only given up six touchdowns outside of the red zone on the
Starting point is 00:44:34 season. That's a strike against Robbie. Okay. Uh, Bridgewater. I know he's not like a great, we're not super enthusiastic, but four of the last six QBs to face the Vikings have
Starting point is 00:44:45 thrown three or four touchdown passes. How many times has Bridgewater done that? Zero. He's not thrown more than two all year, but maybe this will be the year. He's had a game with three plus touchdowns. He's run one in. That's true. Okay, stat of the game number three.
Starting point is 00:45:01 Let's go to the Vikings. Kirk Cousins is at home. In his first five home games, he scored 25 or more fantasy points all five times. I don't know what that's about. Against Green Bay, Tennessee, Atlanta, Detroit, and Dallas, Kirk Cousins is a home beast. Start or sit, Cousins? Does he have Adam Thielen?
Starting point is 00:45:20 Yeah, he's a streamer if he has Thielen. If he doesn't have Thielen, I don't think you can play him. He'll make my top 12 if he's got Thielen. Well, then let me tell you what he did without Adam Thielen. Yeah, he's a streamer if he has Thielen. If he doesn't have Thielen, I don't think you could play him. He'll make my top 12 if he's got Thielen. Well, then let me tell you what he did without Adam Thielen last year. He scored 11 points in one game, 15 points in one game, 21, 22, and 28 in the other three. Yeah, he had Stefan Diggs. But he's got Jefferson.
Starting point is 00:45:44 He also scored 26 points at Kansas City, and Adam Thielen played like four snaps in that game. So he's interesting. Was Dalvin Cook healthy in that one? What's that? Was Dalvin Cook healthy in that one? I think so. I don't think Cook missed games until like the last couple of the year.
Starting point is 00:46:01 He missed three games down the stretch. Yeah, he was healthy for that game. Starters to Dalvin Cook. Start Dalvin Cook. Alright then, let's talk about Thielen and Jefferson here. What do you think about them right now? I think you've got to consider them must-starts like the Rams
Starting point is 00:46:18 guys, like the top two Bucs guys, like DJ Moore. There could be a bad game, obviously. Volume is going to be key whenever Dalvin Cook is going and they're not throwing. But, I mean, you've seen enough of a track record for the season that you just got to trust that this is one of their better games. It's not a bad matchup by any stretch.
Starting point is 00:46:35 So, you know, you start them. I love Jefferson as a top 15 receiver if there's no feeling. What have we seen from him every time he's gotten a lot of targets? He's had huge numbers. He has three games this season with more than five targets, and I think he scored like 20-some-odd PPR points in all three of them.
Starting point is 00:46:52 Oh, he's had like 120 yards in all three of them, Justin Jefferson, or more. But those were, it goes from like five to nine, you know, so there's a big gap. Yeah. We don't know,
Starting point is 00:47:01 we don't know Justin Jefferson in a medium target game. He either has three to five or nine or more targets. It's very strange. But every time he's had nine or more, he's been huge. 135 or more every time he's had nine. 135 or more yards every time he's had nine or more targets. So if Thielen does not play,
Starting point is 00:47:19 is Justin Jefferson going to be in your top 12? I think he's in my top 10. Okay. So you've already ranked him as if Thielen's not going to be in your top 12? I think he's in my top 10. Okay. So you've already ranked him as if Thielen's not going to play? Yeah, that's how we do it. Okay. And so he's top 16 for everybody
Starting point is 00:47:32 in both formats. But he'll still be top 24 if Thielen does play. Yep. You're starting Justin Jefferson regardless of Thielen's status. Thielen impacts Cousins way more than Jefferson.
Starting point is 00:47:45 Okay. If Irv Smith is out, would you start Kyle Rudolph or Rob Gronkowski? Still Gronk. Mm-hmm. Would you start Kyle Rudolph or Noah Fant? Rudolph. I may start Rudolph now.
Starting point is 00:48:02 Dude, like, Jamie, it's so funny. He just crashed into Noah Fant yesterday. Noah, thanks. Noah, thanks. Noah, thanks. All right, I think that's that game. Yeah, that's it. Las Vegas at Atlanta. It's that of the game. All right.
Starting point is 00:48:13 Here's a little Nelson Aguilar fun. Derek Carr has scored 22 or more fantasy points in five games. Aguilar has caught a touchdown in each of the last four of those five. So we said it yesterday. Has Derek Carr had a good game without Aguilar having a good game? each of the last four of those five. So we said it yesterday. Hmm, has Derek Carr had a good game without Aguilar having a good game? Yeah, once earlier in the year. A good fantasy game. But, you know, since Aguilar has become more involved,
Starting point is 00:48:33 he's been part of the equation whenever Carr's had a good game. And you guys liked Derek Carr. He's been working really hard to dispel that theory yesterday. Heath was? Yeah, remember? He's like, well, he had 275 in this game and, you know, could have played better. Yeah, well, those were early in, he had 275 in this game and, you know, could have played better. Yeah, well, those were early in the game
Starting point is 00:48:47 and he mentioned a game against the Patriots where Carr's numbers weren't that bad. I think he scored like 18 fantasy points. But if you look at the games where he scored 22 or more in four or five in each of the last four, Nelson Aguilar has caught a touchdown. So, yeah, so like let's talk about this game because the Raiders are three-point favorites here.
Starting point is 00:49:06 And does it need to be close? Is that a fear right now of Carr just, if they can blow out, I don't know if they will, but if they can handle the Falcons, he just hands the ball off a bunch of times, throws 25 passes. I think the one thing you got to look at though is, really for the season, but certainly under Raheem Morris,
Starting point is 00:49:21 the run defense for Atlanta has been dramatically better. Yes, it has. Top-tier running backs have had a tough time against the Falcons. You're not sending Josh Jacobs. He's going to get his numbers. To what level, that's the question. I think he'll score. He'll probably have a similar stat line like he did last week,
Starting point is 00:49:35 50-60 rushing yards, score a touchdown. Again, you're not benching Josh Jacobs. But this is a game where you can have some success throwing. We've seen tight ends beat up this team. Well, what do the Raiders have? Arguably the second best. Second best one in football. Aguilar will have an opportunity to make some plays down the field,
Starting point is 00:49:51 whether he scores, who knows, but he typically finds the end zone whenever he's involved. You like to see a game like we saw last week where he has nine plus targets. That's happened twice. It's a matter of how will Derek, like we saw last week, he got a touchdown from Aguilar. He got a touchdown from Waller. He got the third touchdown from Jason Witten.
Starting point is 00:50:09 You know, there'll be a third guy somewhere along the way. It'd be nice if it's Henry Ruggs and we start to see some production from him. Could be Hunter Renfro. You know, somebody is going to get him a second touchdown. I don't know if we'll get to three. But Carr's got enough, I think, of a track record this season and the matchup that he's facing that you should feel comfortable starting him. If Julio Jones plays, who's the best quarterback in this game?
Starting point is 00:50:35 Ryan. It's Ryan. Okay. And, yeah, Nelson Aguilar is not even in your top 30. He's going to be. I've got him too low. All right, yeah, I'm going to try not even in your top 30. He's going to be. I've got him too low. It's a great week for wide receivers. That's the problem, Adam.
Starting point is 00:50:51 And so the question becomes, is it a nine-target game for Aguilar? Because then he's got a chance for five-plus catches and a chance for 80-plus yards. Is it a three-target game for Aguilar? Because then it's one catch for 50 yards and a touchdown. And that's the question you have to ask yourself, is where does Agu, you know, sort of stack up? He's a better non PPR receiver than PPR, but if they feature him, which they should, because he's been playing great, then there's a chance for him to be really good top 30 receiver. I just think you got to run,
Starting point is 00:51:18 you know, you got to compare that to your roster. Like I'll give you an example, uh, myself, Todd Rowan. So I share the podcast league team with, we have Aguilar, and we're playing Darius Slayton over him because I think there's more of an opportunity in that matchup against the Bengals for Slayton to play. We're starting Daniel Jones, so we're going to take our chances with a stack in that matchup. He doesn't have a better matchup than Aguilar.
Starting point is 00:51:41 I guess I'd call it pretty even. I don't think he has a better matchup than Aguilar either I think they're very similar but I'm counting on Slayton coming off a bye week getting a couple more targets than Nelson Aguilar does they're very similar guys they're touchdown dependent receivers Aguilar's been better
Starting point is 00:51:55 I certainly can understand starting that but this is something that we're going to take our chances with that Daniel Jones to Slayton hits and we get a bonus play on top of it. Okay. Dave, who would you go with? Slayton or? I'd go with Aguilar.
Starting point is 00:52:09 How about Antonio Brown or Aguilar? I believe in full PPR, I have Brown higher. I think that that's just a safer way to go. And Aguilar isn't perfect. He drops passes, too. We've seen that over the past few weeks. But just to hammer home the point about the run game, not only is the Falcons' run defense pretty good under
Starting point is 00:52:25 Raheem Morris, Richie Incognito is done for the year. That's the best run blocker for Josh Jacobs. You can use Josh Jacobs in redraft. I would not use him in DFS, but I would use Nelson Aguilar if I'm entering a tournament in DFS. He's a great DFS
Starting point is 00:52:41 player, 100%. Oh yeah, he's in my lineup, sure. Darren Waller is number two. Waller's in my lineup, too. Matt Ryan's a great DFS player. 100%. Oh yeah, he's in my lineup. Sure. Darren Waller is number two. Waller's in my lineup too. Matt Ryan is a sit as of now. Well, he's 15th for Jamie, 13th for Dave, 12th for Heath. That's with or without Julio Jones? It's
Starting point is 00:52:58 without Julio, but Julio's practicing. We'll see. My guess is like Chris Carson, he'll be questionable for the game on Sunday. He'll practice all week and they'll give he'll be questionable for the game on Sunday. He'll practice all week, and they'll give him a chance to make the game on Sunday. And if he plays, you've got to assume he's not at 100%, but he'll be out there. He's someone that the Raiders are going to have to deal with, and their defense isn't very good. How about this? The Raiders, in the first three weeks of the season,
Starting point is 00:53:22 they were as bad as it gets against the run. They allowed 24 or more non-PPR fantasy points to good players, McCaffrey and Kamara, but then also Rex Burkhead, Sonny Michel had 100 yards. I mean, they were horrible. Nick Kwiatkowski barely played. He played just a little bit in week one. He missed weeks two and three. Since he's come back, they've been better.
Starting point is 00:53:41 They've been a lot better. No running back has more than 69 rushing yards since week three. Only three running backs have scored double-digit non-PPR fantasy points. Only four running backs have scored more than 11 PPR fantasy points. So how are you feeling about Todd Gurley? Compare him to some of the guys we've talked about, Clyde Edwards-Ziller, Raheem Mostert,
Starting point is 00:53:59 and I'm sure you have Mike Davis ahead of him. But how about Mostert, Edwards Edward Ziller, and Todd Gurley? I'll put Gurley ahead of them both, assuming he practices on Friday. And the Chiefs had three rushing touchdowns against the Raiders in their last game out. Two games before that, it was the Chargers. They totaled two touchdowns among their running backs.
Starting point is 00:54:25 I don't buy that their defense is suddenly a shutdown unit against the run. I wouldn't say shutdown, but they've been better. The touchdowns. Maybe you can say they're a slowdown unit. Yeah. Gurley's always not that good. Gurley's pretty slow. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:41 Okay. So he's the number two running back. And then nothing tricky with the Atlanta wide receivers, right? Start Julio and Calvin. Yep. Jamie, how are you feeling about Hayden Hurst this week? I hope he's healthy and I hope he gets targets. I mean, last week was a disaster.
Starting point is 00:54:57 You know, he was banged up a little bit in that game and, you know, they went away from him. But he's in that low-end starting group. You know, as Heath would say, it's five. So he's a tight end with a pulse, and hopefully they use him. It looked like it was a real bad injury. Did you see when it happened? He went down in a heap.
Starting point is 00:55:14 He was grabbing his ankle. It took him a while to get up, and then he gutted out the game. So like Julio, you've got to imagine that he's going to be affected by the injury. Would you start Hurst or Mark Andrews with RG3? Andrews. All right. Hurst or Gronk?
Starting point is 00:55:34 Gronk. I've got Hurst a spot ahead of Gronk right now. I don't know if I'll stick with it. Jamie, Hurst or Noah Fant? Noah, thank you. Okay, we're going to take a quick break here. We've got three games left. We already talked about them in the Stardometer segment,
Starting point is 00:55:49 San Francisco with the Rams, Packers, Bears, Seahawks, and Eagles. By the way, Hayden Hurst has three targets inside the 10-yard line. That's okay. How many does Julio Jones have this year? The answer when we come back. Whether in the game or in life,
Starting point is 00:56:04 the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. We'll answer when we come back. on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks.
Starting point is 00:56:44 Before you break ground, make it a point to request a locate. It's not just the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. San Francisco is at the Rams. By the way, Julio Jones has one target inside the 10-yard line, just one this year.
Starting point is 00:57:08 Brilliant. San Francisco's at the Rams. I'll never understand that. I will never, ever understand that. Are you starting any 49ers? I'm okay with Mostert as a low end number two running back. We talked about that already. I think you
Starting point is 00:57:23 can put Debo in the flex conversation, Jordan Reed in the desperation tight end conversation. Debo or Aguilar? Aguilar. I'm a little more optimistic about Jordan Reed, but like Hurst or Reed? I've got Hurst right there. Rudolph, if Irv Smith is out or Jordan Reed?
Starting point is 00:57:43 I would take a chance on Rudolph especially if Thielen is also out that's a no-brainer for me okay Jared Goff is like around 15th and again I want you to if you feel like this is a little skimpy everybody go back rewind to check out the start-o-meter segment
Starting point is 00:57:59 but Jared Goff is an okay start and you're going to start the Rams wide receivers and you're going to sit the running backs right it's the best advice we can give because we don't know how the workload But Jared Goff is an okay start, and you're going to start the Rams wide receivers, and you're going to sit the running backs, right? It's the best advice we can give because we don't know how the workload's going to be divvied up amongst the running backs, although I do think that a Cam Akers breakout is close to happening. Don't know how successful they'll be running the football.
Starting point is 00:58:18 And the upside is too great to ignore when it comes to Woods and Cup. And usually I would have Cup ranked lower in PPR, but the fact that there's no Kwon Williams makes me a little more optimistic about Cup in the matchup. Niners have a good run defense, but one thing that they struggle with is pass-catching running backs. Six running backs have 30 or more receiving yards against San Francisco, and they've given up four to seven catches to four running backs
Starting point is 00:58:41 in their last three games. So I don't know. It's not something you can really bank on with the Rams. If that's supposed to make me encouraged by using Malcolm Brown, I would tell you that he's been third on the pecking order among running backs in LA in touches.
Starting point is 00:58:54 No, it's not. The past two weeks. All right, let's say Tyler Higbee's out. Gerald Everett or Jordan Reed? Everett. Interesting. Why do you hate Reed so much? I mean, he's been pretty good.
Starting point is 00:59:04 Because Debo's back and because I think the Rams defense is good. Well, that is true. Yeah. I don't know if you need me to really quantify that. Saints defense is good too, and he had a good game against the Saints a couple weeks ago, and he had the second most yards of any tight end all year against the Saints.
Starting point is 00:59:21 Alright. You know what? Jamie's higher on him. Jamie's got Jordan Reed 12th. Dave and Heath have him closer to 20. And the Rams? Jamie's higher on him. Jamie's got Jordan Reed 12th. Dave and Heath have him closer to 20. And the Rams DST is a must start. Chicago is at Green Bay. I already gave you the stat on Allen Robinson. First five games, last five games,
Starting point is 00:59:39 just not nearly as many targets. Sit Mitchell Trubisky. Okay. David Montgomery. Here we go, Dave. The Packers, they give up the third most fantasy points to running backs, the most receiving yards per game to running backs. And as you know, because I said it 10 times last week, 100 yards or a touchdown to a running back in every game, but not Montgomery. And he, by the way, has had a pretty tough schedule. If you go back and look at it, this might be his best matchup yet. And you're saying sit Montgomery? Offensive line's in terrible shape. No guarantee on what his workload will be. If Trubisky's back under center, he could end up having a couple
Starting point is 01:00:12 carries that's taken away. Whoa, what do you mean no guarantee what his workload's going to be? We don't know. I can't trust the Bears coaching staff to reliably give him 18 plus touches. Okay, but he'll have, he's not like he's going to split with Cordero Patterson or anything. No,
Starting point is 01:00:26 it's not going to be, I don't think it's going to be like that, but he's been extremely inefficient. Oh yeah. You've got to hope that he scores a touchdown or he has a bunch of catches that are nice gainers. Is it possible? Sure.
Starting point is 01:00:40 Do I really want to trust it? Not particularly. Okay. So, uh, you trust it? Not particularly. Okay. So you'd start Ronald Jones over David Montgomery? That's how I have it ranked. Let me see. You'd start Gus Edwards, obviously. How about Melvin Gordon? Both of them make my skin crawl.
Starting point is 01:01:00 Okay. Zach Moss? I think Moss has a better chance to score in a high-scoring game against the Chargers. I see you have Montgomery one spot ahead of James White in PPR. All right. So there's that. And even that might be off. Allen Robinson is a...
Starting point is 01:01:15 You're going to start him. He's in the 20s. Start him with number two receiver expectations. Yeah. Okay. Heath has him as a number one, low end. Jimmy Graham. How about Jimmy Graham or Jordan Reed? I guess I'm just low on Jordan Reed.
Starting point is 01:01:32 Not expecting him to be a huge factor for the 49ers. All right. Jimmy Graham or Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph. Even if Smith plays or only if Smith is out only if Smith is out? If Smith is out, I think that's enough for Rudolph to get the nod over Graham.
Starting point is 01:01:49 Aaron Rodgers is number six for Dave, Jamie, and Heath. 6-6-6. The mark of the beast. Half-baked, anyone? Start Aaron Jones, sit Jamal Williams, start Devontae Adams. Any interest in Marquez Valdez, Scantling, or Alan Lazard? I'd rather go with Aguilar. They're going to fall behind the Aguilars
Starting point is 01:02:08 and Antonio Browns and Darius Slaytons of the world. You feel very confident in Aaron Rodgers this week against the Bears? Reasonably confident. This seems like the type of spot, certainly as an eight-and-a-half-point favorite, where Aaron Rodgers just goes out there and
Starting point is 01:02:23 lays fire to them. Robert Tunyon. Thoughts? Would prefer a different tight end. Jimmy Graham or Tunyon? Jimmy Graham. And give me a read, too. Okay.
Starting point is 01:02:40 Yeah, Tunyon is outside the top 15. Bears have not been great against tight ends, but everybody's healthy in that passing game for Green Bay. Okay, yeah, Tunyon is outside the top 15. Bears have not been great against tight ends, but everybody's healthy in that passing game for Green Bay. I think you'd have to get very lucky with Tunyon. Good point. Packers DST, 7th for Jamie, 5th for Dave, 2nd for Heath. And finally, Seattle at Philadelphia. I've given a lot of all these stats of the games already,
Starting point is 01:03:02 but yeah, this one, basically what I already said, the Seahawks have been pretty bad against tight ends lately. So how are we approaching that situation with Goddard and Ertz? If Ertz plays, it's going to be a mess, but I still think Goddard is the safer play of the two just because we don't know what to expect from Ertz in terms of not just target share, but also how healthy is he?
Starting point is 01:03:28 How spry is he? Is he going to be covered by a cornerback and not be able to get open? That's what we saw earlier this year. It was a mess. Yeah. So we need to wait a week on Hurts, no matter when he comes back.
Starting point is 01:03:42 But if he doesn't play, Goddard is what? Like top what? Like top seven or higher maybe even top five tight end and uh let's talk about so you're gonna start mile sanders nobody else no no wide receivers and not carson wentz right i can't feel good about any of those guys yeah it's weird it's like i don't think we've ever ever said that in a Seahawks game, but the Eagles have just been so bad. Their defense is playing better. Their pass rush is playing a little bit stronger.
Starting point is 01:04:12 It's making a difference. And Wentz's offensive line is causing him to be a very different quarterback than what we've seen in the past. So let's flip it over to the Seahawks. And Russell Wilson said earlier this week, I think balance is always great, but I think that we've got to do whatever it takes to win. I think that's the reality.
Starting point is 01:04:30 Obviously, we won a lot of games early on, and we're doing a lot of special things, throwing the ball and things that have never been done before. I think he thinks, I think that Russell Wilson wants to keep throwing. Well, duh. And yeah, but you know, he'll take wins. But Pete Carroll wants to keep winning games.
Starting point is 01:04:46 And Carroll has, you know, he got what he wanted out of Carlos Hyde last week. This is a much tougher matchup for the run game. And look, you're going to start Russell Wilson, but he is seventh for Dave and Jamie. He's fourth for Heath. So it's possible you could have Wilson and Rodgers. Like Herbert.
Starting point is 01:05:03 Yeah, Wilson and Herbert. You'd go with Herbert? I would go with Herbert. But it's really for Lockett, I think, because he's been inconsistent. Everyone's starting Metcalf. Are you thinking that Lockett's going to have another good game? Listen, if I'm starting Robert Woods and Cooper Cup
Starting point is 01:05:22 because of their upside, what do you think I'm going to tell you with Tyler Lockett? Right, yeah. What's the evidence that says that he's going to struggle against Philadelphia? And if I think he's going to struggle against Philadelphia, then even with Russ ranked seventh, I've got him too high.
Starting point is 01:05:36 Okay. I don't think that. Okay. Well, one thing that's good for Wilson also is that the Eagles have kind of struggled with mobile quarterbacks. Daniel Jones has run all over them. Lamar Jackson had 108 yards and a touchdown.
Starting point is 01:05:47 So that could be another avenue for Russell Wilson. And that's it for this game. The Seattle DST is top 10. Start them up and maybe Jalen Rager. If you were going to gamble on one wide receiver for the Eagles, would it be Rager at this point? I think it would be.
Starting point is 01:06:04 All right. We've just it's been so frustrating with Fulgham. Two weeks ago, not a lot of targets. Last wide receiver for the Eagles. Would it be Rager at this point? I think it would be. It's been so frustrating with Fulgham. Two weeks ago, not a lot of targets. Last week, more targets, still the same result. The only guys that are doing something for Wentz are the tight ends. I should have mentioned that Jamie had to leave. I apologize, but he left
Starting point is 01:06:20 at our commercial break. Dave has to leave as well because we have CBS Sports HQ in 45 minutes. We are out of here. Thanks a lot for as well because we have CBS Sports HQ in 45 minutes. So we are out of here. So thanks a lot for listening. We'll have our mailbag show. We'll have updates for you on the Ravens-Steelers game if it gets canceled or whatnot. And good luck to you
Starting point is 01:06:36 in Week 12. Have a great weekend everybody. See ya.

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