Fantasy Football Today - Started Fantasy Points and a Mailbag (07/04 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 4, 2022

Some players were great in 2021, but a good chunk of their Fantasy points were on your bench. We bring on listener Dave Costello who compiled the Started Fantasy Points data (3:50) at each position and we talk about the players who were frequently in and out of starting lineups. Kirk Cousins, Mike Williams, tight ends who rely on touchdowns and more ... We discuss our current dynasty league which just completed its 2022 rookie draft (22:40). What order should the running backs have been selected? ... Your emails at [e-mail]. We answer questions about our must-draft players (31:10), how to project a team with a new head coach and a new quarterback (33:00), how to draft in deeper leagues (34:30), salary cap drafts (40:15), Matt Ryan (43:10) and more  Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. What's going on, everybody? Welcome to your mailbag for July 4th. We are recording on Friday, July 1st. If you're on YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football today, you can watch it before it airs in the podcast feeds. I am Adam Azer. Happy 4th of July, everybody.

For those of you who are not watching before the show publishes officially, hope you're having an awesome three-day weekend and a great, great holiday. Joined by Jamie Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and our new Dave, Dave Costello, who we're going to tell you about in just a second. Heath, what are you grilling 4th of July? Absolutely nothing. I'm very happy to report that the Deerfield Beach 4th of July bash is back on. It's been off for a couple of years for obvious reasons. And so we will go over to the beach about noon and sit there for 10 hours. Probably throw the Frisbee a little.

Go to Brews Room, have a meal. Maybe have a couple of drinks. Maybe. And then watch fireworks over the ocean. Jamie, one 4th of July staple. You had to have one thing. Hot dogs. Yeah, it's got to be hot dogs, right?

You could say burger, but it's got to be hot dogs. I thought the answer was going to be fireworks. And watching Joey Chestnut, of course. And watching Joey Chestnut. Now, that is your new Dave, at least for today. Dave Costello, uh,

helped us out in a big way. How do you make better, uh, dynasty trades? I actually, you know what? I actually like the dynasty trade that Dave Richard made. Go ahead.

Reveal the one where he got the first round pick. Well, he said, cause he traded with Heath. Okay. Heath. Um, well,

yes, I would say Dave, I, the second trade Dave made made made whether the first trade was a good trade or bad trade not really matter because now we both won um but you're covered well from the bad trade dave traded me pick number four for pick number 11 15 and 22 rookie only draft 11 15 and 22 for pick those picks turned into christian watson zamir white and ty davis price for garrett wilson okay um but but dave didn't pick christian watson

he traded the christian watson pick for a 2023 first oh well i guess i don't like it then maybe i do obviously it depends where that one lands. Drake, so he gave up Drake London, was it? Who did you say? Garrett Wilson? Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson for... For Jameson Williams, who he signed. But the other trade that he made, which I think was worse,

was he traded Tyler Boyd for, I think, just the third round pick in this year's rookie draft. But that's IDP too, right? In the draft? This draft is terrible. Oh, man. And then you kind of defend it by saying this class is deep, which is just ridiculous.

The IDP discussion. We won't do it today because we've got other things to do. But I would like to go on like a 10-minute rant about valuing defensive fantasy points. Okay. All right. Well,

I think people don't do it enough. Our, uh, yeah, I think people don't do it enough. Our email address is fantasy football at cbsi.com. We will have a lot of your emails, including,

uh, our favorite player to take at their ADP this year, who we, we refuse to leave our draft without, uh, how to project a team like the Broncos where they have a new head coach, a coordinator, a new quarterback, how to draft in larger leagues, salary cap drafts, things like that. But I want to introduce Dave Costello.

He's a listener of the show who wanted to help me out with a project, started Fantasy Points. What percentage of a player's total Fantasy points in the regular season, weeks one through 14, not fantasy playoffs, were on the bench and what percentage were in your starting lineup? And can we learn anything from this? I didn't really have time to do it. So Dave took the reins and did the whole thing. And I'm very appreciative of that, Dave. So welcome to the show. Thank you for listening. Thank you so much for having me, guys. I really appreciate being on. I love listening

to you guys, especially around this time of year. I usually head down Cape Cod. I got my fantasy football magazine, CBS, of course, and getting sandy by the beach. Thanks for having me on. It's a big thrill. Happy to be here and this was a fun

project to work on did you find it useful i did find it useful so basically you know what this will tell you starting fantasy points um actual starting fantasy points so it'll give you guys um that you can get a little bit lower down for some good value. You know, it's a metric that Adam and I worked on, you know, and what players were underutilized or not started as much that actually put up some pretty good points. You know, so, for example, Patrick Mahomes, he's putting up 41 points. And, you know, across the board, CBS, you know, 99% is starting Patrick Mahomes. So he's getting 41 points.

But what about the guy like i'm gonna give it away a little bit but kirk cousins quarterback uh who's putting up 40 points but you only have 50 of owners starting kirk cousins so his actual starting points would be 20 uh so we took i took a look at that data point I kind of averaged it across the 14 fantasy football weeks, as Adam said. And so I highlighted a guy at each position that you can get later if you're waiting on that position that actually delivered underutilized fantasy points in 2021, and they're also entering into an even better offensive situation

in 2022 and cousins was your quarterback so yeah cousins for quarterback basically 39 percent of his points were used um in 2021 137 points out of his total 352 points in the 14 weeks. And you compare that, to be honest, to Mahomes. You know, Mahomes during those 14 weeks was 362 points. So it goes to show you that you can find some value with Cousins. You know, he's a good quarterback that you can get late. And, you know, he was the QB nine last year. And he's entering into a situation, he's got a, you know, a new coach in Kevin O'Connell coming over from the Rams, as the offensive coordinator there, who really turned Stafford

around. And he's looking for that same success with Cousins. And I actually came across a stat that was really interesting that compared Stafford and Cousins in their first 120 starts. And Cousins actually has Stafford beat out. They both have around 33,000 passing yards. Cousins had a 67 completion percentage compared to 61.6 percentage for Stafford. Cousins had 219 passing TDs compared to 208 for Stafford. Only 87 interceptions for Cousins, 114 for Stafford, and a total passer rating of 99 versus 87.

So I think things are trending upward for Cousins. Again, you're not going to draft him early but if you're waiting at the quarterback position you know you get Jefferson in his third year I think he's more comfortable I feel like they might pump the brakes a little bit with Dalvin Cook you know he didn't have the best end of the year and uh I think I think uh Madison might get some some more carries so um well Dave let me so the thing is, you know, Cousins is the kind of guy that I would expect to be pretty low and start at fantasy points based on years past because he's always drafted as maybe a high-end number two or maybe you waited a really long time.

But you're sometimes looking for better options. But, Jamie, maybe this is the year where people just plug Kirk Cousins into their lineup. I know you like him a lot, and they don't worry about having another, another guy, you know, that he's just a starter end of story. I'm going to guess that does not happen early in the majority of leagues because especially what we're seeing with average draft position now,

like for example, Rogers is going ahead of him. I think, you know, cousins and car is going to be heavily debated because of, you know, the upgrades that car got and, and,

and coach and, um, talent around him. And then we still have to see where be heavily debated because of, you know, the upgrades that Carr got and coach and talent around him. And then we still have to see where Trey Lance settles, you know, especially if they move on from Garoppolo in San Francisco. He'll be in the starting conversation. So there's probably, you know, three to five guys that are going to be in the Cousins range. But I think once he or if he gets off to a good start, I hope he gets off to a good start because I agree that he is. He has a chance to have a special season. Then I think he kind of settles into a weekly starter. You know, I don't think he'll ever be a 90 to 100 percent started guy because I just don't think that most people will still continue to view him that way. But my guess is he'll be above 80 percent and that'll end up maybe being close to a career high in terms of

his fantasy start percentage for the people that track those things. Well, I, you know, like, so I want to talk about maybe the running backs here. And if you're watching on YouTube, I'm trying to scroll so you can see some of the data here. So again, we only use the first 14 weeks. We didn't use the fantasy postseason. So many teams are eliminated at that point that the star percentages don't really matter as much. But what I noticed is the guys who were pretty low, you know, Devin Singletary, that makes sense. Guys who

come on strongly, like Amandra St. Brown, very low in started fantasy points. But Damian Harris, Melvin Gordon, even James Conner was kind of low. If you're in a shared backfield, people might not know what to do with you,

and they might leave you on the bench in a good week or start you in a bad week or maybe just get it right every time. But that is something that needs to be considered. But, David, who did you want to – or Dave, sorry. Who did you want to – Yeah, so actually you mentioned him. I got James Conner. you want to uh yeah so actually you mentioned them i got uh james connor uh you know he was using 66 of the league and uh you know that percentage obviously went up uh through the 14

weeks and and his draft value is going to reflect that obviously um but again he had 212 points compared to eckler's 262 and harris 23. So, you know, those are first round guys. And O'Connor, you can get, I don't know, what would you guys say, third or fourth? You know, and he's, again, you talk about a situation where Chase Edmonds is off to Miami. You know, he's no longer there. I don't see Darrell Williams from coming over the Chiefs being much of a threat. He's coming off a new three-year extension for $20 million. And so the Cardinals have faith

in him. And I also think another thing to point out is Hopkins being out for the six games to start off the season, they could lean a little bit more on the run. Yeah, I think it's interesting to think about James Conner scored 18 fewer fantasy points than Leonard Fournette, but he had 60 fewer started fantasy points than Leonard Fournette. Fournette was started in 80, 87% of Fournette's fantasy points were started. Only 66% of Connors. Let's go to wide receiver here. And you tell me the guy who really stands out to you.

I hope, I hope, I have a, I have a hope of who will be all right, go ahead. Wide receiver. I have Mike Williams. Yes. Yes. Is that who you're thinking? Yes. And I have a point to who it will be. All right, go ahead. Wide receiver, I have Mike Williams. Yes.

Yes. Is that who you're thinking? Yes, and I have a point to make about Mike Williams, but go for it. 62%. He came in at 62%. Only 124 of his 200 points were used. And again, you know, you compare that to Tyree Kill, 256 points. He's not far behind uh he's coming off his best year his best season uh you know 1,146 yards nine touchdowns 76 catches and he's also coming

off a freshly signed three years 60 million dollar contract so it shows you what the higher ups are thinking uh about the Herbert to Williams connection in the coming years. So, you know, I don't know what round you guys think you can get him at, but I think he is a tremendous value a little bit later in the draft. Yeah, Heath, I think people lost some confidence in him late in the year and even early in the year after his hot start, Mike Williams here. And I guess the point I would make is if you're streaky, it is a difficult start-sit decision if you're a streaky player. Do you think that's going to be a problem for Mike Williams? Well, I mean, you know how I feel about this. Tyler Locke's been my favorite player for like five years.

I love Brandon Cooks. I don't care. I'm just starting those guys almost every week. But I think the other the thing maybe that's more of an indicator for williams and i don't know i can't see what the week one week two like he wasn't drafted as a starter right that also and he got off to an awesome start at the beginning of the year he had 80 for 82 at a touchdown week 177 for 91 and touchdown week two um seven for 122 and two touchdowns week three. Like, and it might've been just about the point

that he got up to 100% start percentage. He gave us that 11 yard game. Yeah, he was 53% started that week. He was 75% started in week three, 58 in week two, but only 4% started in week one. So that is part of it. Easy to say, just start him in a three-receiver league with a flex, but in a two-receiver league with a flex,

I wonder if fantasy managers should... I don't want to say they should avoid streaky guys, but it does give you that headache. It ruins your weeks. It might, but it's definitely going to be a discussion for people. Hey, am I starting this guy? He's boom or bust. It always comes down to your roster construction. If you have some high floor players around him, then you're in good shape.

If you're dealing with a lot of these guys, you don't want to be starting Mike Williams and Tyler Lockett on the same team, or in this case, Mike Williams and Brandon Cooks on the same team. But if you have... I mean, that's the reason why Mike Williams and Brandon Cooks are more number two receivers because you want to pair them with the more consistent high upside type of guys. And so, Jamie, do you agree with this comment from Cowboys Choke? Starting Mike Williams is like playing Russian roulette. Yes and no. I think, as Dave alluded to, as new Dave alluded to, that they paid him.

They didn't upgrade the position. They're counting on Jalen Guyton and Josh Palmer to hopefully take a step forward. You could say all you want to about Gerald Everett being an upgrade over Jared Cook. How much of an upgrade, we'll see. I think they're pretty much clearly counting on, and if you're counting on Justin Herbert, you expect this to be the case as well. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Eckler to carry this passing game to the same level that it did last year, which resulted in Justin Herbert going for 5,000 yards.

And I think he'll be an MVP candidate this season. So this is a team that clearly has some defined roles for defined guys. And Mike Williams should hopefully produce at a high level. You brought up the, I think it was an email from earlier this week about contract year guys. And, you know, and you mentioned Mike Williams specifically about someone to maybe be worried about, you know, after having the big year in a contract year. We'll see. It's certainly valid. He's had some injury concerns.

He's had a lot of boom bust play. But, you know, last year felt like second year for Herbert. He finally put it all together. And I do think he's trending in the right direction. So he's a guy I would look at as early as round four. Let's take a look at tight ends now. And, uh, what's your takeaway Dave from your tight end research? Yeah. So tight end, I mean, an obvious one is, is Dalton Schultz. Um, you know, at the beginning of the season, people weren't starting him and obviously as the season progressed uh he was

started more um you know you guys i see you have him ranked around you know the sixth tight end um so he was around 45 percent uh but my tight end here is again another arizona cardinal uh another Arizona Cardinal, Zach Ertz. He came in at 48%, 58 of his 121 points used. And, you know, again, you're getting somebody in the later rounds. And with Hopkins being out, there's going to be more targets to go around for Murray. And another guy, you know, at 31, you know, the Cardinals ownership thinks there's plenty left in the tank for him. And, you know, he's coming off a big three year deal for 32 million. So, so they see, you know, some, some things left for him. And so, yeah, Zach Ertz.

Heath, there's a lot to like about Zach Ertz in 11 games with Arizona on a per game basis. He was only 10th in non PPR,, but he was 6th best in full PPR. He caught only three touchdowns in those 11 games, but he got a ton of red zone and green zone targets. From Week 7 through 18, Ertz had the 10th most red zone targets and the 4th most goal-to-go targets in the NFL. However, his touchdown rate was very low and DeAndre Hopkins barely played for that matter. But do you think Zach Ertz is a set it and forget

it kind of tight end? You put them in your life. You don't even draft a second tight end. You just have Zach Ertz. Yeah, I don't. I mean, if you want to draft a second one that has more upside, I wouldn't have any problem with that. But I'm probably just starting Zach Ertz on a week to week basis. I'm not thinking about about streaming the interesting thing will be you said it he played most of his time with arizona last year without deandre hopkins now he's going to play the first six weeks of this season without hopkins but marquise brown will be there so i'll be curious to see the first six weeks can earths have even close to the same target share and then what happens when heart when hopkins comes back because i wouldn't be surprised

if brown and hopkins see half the targets between the two of them once they're both good to go to be fair though kirk was there and now kirk is gone so yeah well brown should be an upgrade over kirk we'll see and let's look at the other players on this tight end list compiled by dave who had a pretty low started fantasy point percentage and finished, you know, as a start worthy guy. Dalton Schultz and Ertz have been mentioned. Dawson Knox, Hunter Henry, Pat Fryermuth. I mean, what do they have in common? When you're just fishing for a touchdown, those guys are going to be frustrating, right? So does that make sense? I mean, the touchdown or bust guys at the tight end position, you're going to be lucky if you had them in your lineup. They're going Adams and Marcos Valdez-Scantling in Green Bay. So if you are, you know, tight end is so funny because, you know, I think we've noted this,

you know, several times. There's six guys you should feel really comfortable with, with Schultz being the sixth, you know, the top five of Kelsey, Andrews, Pitts, Waller, and Kittle. The next three could easily be top five guys. You mentioned Warner Ertz. You got Dallas Goddard. You got TJ Hawkinson. There's so much upside, but we've seen the downside for all three of them,

and they all have their red flags. But it's after that group, it's kind of just, I think, a dart throw in essence. It's like you said, you're chasing the touchdown-only guys of those four. You're chasing guys that could be heavily targeted, one that's kind of disgusting, but Evan Ingram, for example. Maybe Irv Smith sees a bump in targets. I guess Irv Smith's probably more of a touchdown only guy. But Cole Komet, you know, certainly is going to see an uptick in targets and has, you know, huge potential. Noah Fant, you know, you can see a path to a lot of targets there for him.

Maybe Albert Owen, Denver too, you know, so there's so many guys, Gusecki, David Njoku, you know, so many guys that you can look at can look at and say, wait, great or late, on who's going to be the best of that group. But it's fascinating. It's a really fascinating position. All right, Dave, thank you very much. So before you go, tell us about yourself, Patriots man. Well, yeah, I'm a Patriots fan uh as you can see from the chair behind me so

um you know from from the Boston area and uh my wife and two kids um I got uh Claire who's seven and Kevin who's four and I'm gonna be pushing Kevin in the fourth of July race coming up on Monday so looking forward to that and uh he's the one that I've collected all these small helmets with behind me. It's been kind of a fun thing to do with him. So he loves football, and I enjoy watching it with him. That's great. Do you do your fantasy drafts live with friends? We don't do it live.

Yeah, we'll usually do it towards the last week of august and uh i'm always the one that starts my research pretty early i hope it helps man well thank you very much for hopping on and for doing all this research thank you guys very much for having me on it was a thrill i enjoy your show and uh happy fourth of j. All right. We're going to take a break here on Fantasy Football today. We're going to come back with your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days.

And the ability to reach further with access to over 1400 airport lounges worldwide redefine possible with business platinum that's the powerful backing of american express terms and conditions apply visit amex.ca slash business platinum again special thanks to dave costello for joining us the new dave for joining us and uh we're gonna just finish up with your emails here we go no we gotta talk about our dynasty draft oh okay all right all right go ahead heath how do you feel so we we've been waiting out your your picks on what you're gonna do with your first uh two picks because you tanked.

Are you happy with how it's worked out? Yeah, for the most part, I am. There have been a couple of hiccups in the second and third round, but I started off with Breeze Hall at 101, and then I took Drake London at 102, and then I had a bunch of second-round picks as well, and I traded my late first pick 11 and pick 15 and pick 22 to move up to number four and get garrett wilson those are my top

three players in this class so i hope two of them turn into stars it's a pretty good start um adam it's a 14 team league so that's why you say second round. So 15-11 was still in the first one, obviously, but 15-22 in the second round. Adam, can you guess the first 10 picks? And if you get it right in order, I'll give you a spot in the podcast. First 10 picks of your dynasty. You know three of the four.

I don't know if I know the order, though. He told you three of the four. I just told you. I wasn't paying attention. One, two, and the four pick. I was writing a't paying attention one two and the four big i was writing a thank you email to dave uh costello what were they again did you welcome him to the club what club the club of people who do things because you say you're too busy who else is in that club well one of them just left uh Let's see. Brees Hall. I'm not going to get him in order.

So let's just do it. Brees Hall, Ken Walker, Drake London, Traylon Burks, Jameson Williams, Chris Olave, Christian Watson. Not in the top 10.

Oh, top 10. Right. He went to Dave with what? The 12th pick? What was it? 11th pick. 11., top 10. Right. He went to Dave with what? The 12th pick? What was it? 11th pick. 11.

That's the one Dave traded. Not to Dave. Dave traded that pick for a first round pick which was a fantastic trade. Although Rob's team could be much better. Oh, I think...

Yeah. I mean, if Rob sets his lineup every week, he's a playoff team. I'm not doing this anymore. I'm not doing this anymore. I finished up. I want to read the emails.

First round went Brees Hall, Drake London, Ken Walker, Garrett Wilson, Traylon Burks, Jameson Williams, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, Sky Moore, James Cook was the top 10. I'm still taking Christian Watson over Jahan Dotson. It's a fun rhyme-ish. Yeah. It's interesting to compare Christian Watson. Yeah. It's do you, it's interesting to compare Christian Watson and Amari Rogers.

I think it is. Yeah. Because I don't know pedigree wise that Watson's that much better than Amari Rogers. And Amari Rogers, we're getting kind of excited about cause he could be Aaron Rogers number two last year. Okay.

Pedigree is a tough thing to say when a guy played at FBS, FCS, but I think Amari Rogers is a slot receiver. He's just, that's why I really liked him last year for the Packers. I just thought it made sense. He's just like a short area slot receiver. He was really dependable in college.

Um, Christian Watson is a different athlete. He's gazelle. He's fast. He's big. He's got, he's an outside receiver. He's a gazelle. He's fast. He's big. He's an outside receiver. He's got major upside. He might stink.

He might have major downside. But obviously, Amari Rogers does too. He was a non-factor last year. He couldn't beat out Randall Cobb. So there's no comparison to me. It's interesting. I don't know what the ADP is. If you know it, of rookie-only drafts of Dotson, Sky Moore, and Christian Watson.

And who goes first? I still think Watson probably goes first, but Moore is probably there and Dotson, I would guess, is third. The last I looked, and I can find that really, really quickly, the last I looked, Sky Moore was ahead of both Watson and Dotson. But Dotson's gotten quite a bit of steam here lately. So I'm looking at fantasy pros, Brees Hall, Ken Walker, Chris Alave. This can't be right. No. Yeah, it does show Chris Alave third and Christian Watson fourth. So I'll try to find a different source we're not going to use uh fantasy football calculator 2022 adp has watson going ninth behind

sky more ahead of james cook and two picks ahead of dots adam what do you think of these running backs in the order that they went in. Rashad White. Rashad White, Zamir White, Tyler Algier, Damian Pierce. That was the order. Yeah, I think that's a good... If you're not playing for this year, I think that's a good order. Especially with Damian Pierce. I think he is really one-dimensional.

He and Algier ran four 640s. That's alarming. Yeah, I would go that order if you're not playing for this year. Obviously, I think Pierce and Algier have a faster path to relevance, but I think the other guys have a year wait and then probably have a chance to you know be good especially

zamir white in 2023 oh see i was gonna say the exact opposite i was gonna say maybe especially rashad white because but i man i don't know what to make of zamir white at all what is uh somebody else want to join the show heath yes tried to add somebody else but trying to get a zim with me or white sound drop but he had two torn acls in college i thought one was in high school okay we'll double check on that two pre-nfls it's still not great but but mostly i think like of that group i think the odds of any of the four having a three- or four-year run as a starter are really low. So I'd rather just draft the two guys who might get a chance to be starters this year

and increase their value. That's fair. He tore his ACL in 2017 and 2018, right? ACL in 2017, that must have been high school. Left ACL in 2018. He's pretty far removed from those. Rashad White. Both these guys are...

I don't know if I have a typo here or if they're both checked in at 6'214 pounds. It's possible. Rashad White's a big boy. Yeah, he's... I don't know. You probably... They're all day three picks, right? Yeah, the thing that I think he said is interesting because I could certainly see Tyler Algier getting replaced next year

for an upgrade. I could see Rashad White either never getting a chance or being stuck on what could be a rebuild in Tampa Bay once Tom Brady retires. Um, the thing that I find interesting with, with Pierce though, uh,

and even Algier is that if they do probably have their best bet to, to produce for you, it's probably this year. And so like, like he said, you know, so do you take that opportunity? Because Amir White is very fascinating because he could be,

you know, from what the Raiders are saying, could be their guy, but it's probably going to be a shared back book. Just real quick, Adam, before we wrap it up, a couple of surprise picks that I thought ended up being really good value. Isaiah Spiller going 21st overall because I think he should be in this conversation. He went a few picks behind them. I was thrilled to get David Bell at 26.

I could not believe that. Well, um, Adam's buddy took a giant before you, right? Opened the door. Dan, Dan,

Dan took a cool, a couple of guys about two 30 took Taekwon Thornton, uh, at 14, which to me, he's a third round guy. And then he took Wanda Robinson. Wanda is a second round pick,

but I would have definitely taken David Bell. I don't think you're going to be starting either of them this year. Huh? I don't think you're going to be starting David Bell or Wandale Robinson this year unless we're recording this on Friday. Remember, maybe there's going to be

the Sean Watson news over the weekend. Oh, I didn't. I mean, my team is not in need of David Bell, but I have him as a board. In a 14-team league, he's a first-round pick for me. Wow. Okay. This is not a great year.

No, it was a terrible year. I don't know if he's the top 14 guy at a normal year, but it's probably hard to find 14 guys you love. Okay. By the way, Rashad White, now with the Bucs out of Arizona State, 43 catches as a senior last year. Let's read some emails from Bradley.

Who is your favorite player at their ADP who you refuse to leave your draft without and that you expect to dominate this year? At their ADP? Yeah, it doesn't really matter, I guess. Dominate is a strong word because we're gonna say guys drafting late who'd you say i'll say brennan cooks um i draft a lot of naheem hines i don't think he's gonna dominate but i like the value i'm all about that broncos broncos passing game you gotta pick one sutton sutton even though judy's gonna go so much later and patrick after

that so i i don't really that I'm not into Patrick really I don't really know what to make of the ADP because I don't know why you're not so much higher on Patrick I don't see him being a consistent contributor I see him being a bi-week replacement but he could be a league winner

if one of those guys get hurt I can't play the whole if one of those guys gets hurt game. I mean, I can't do that with so many guys. If you're going to draft one of these guys in every draft and Tim Patrick's going to be there in round 10, then you should do... This is your strategy. You are the creator of the friendship strategy.

This is your strategy. Sutton and Judy are going in round six. I would rather take Sutton... Well, I don't really't really know what's you're not going to go in round six that's what that's what i'm saying like i keep taking sudden in round four but adp says round six but i take him early round four when i have a late round five pick and don't think he's going to be there but i don't i don't know if i can trust probably unless if things don't turn around from him quickly in the start of training camp, he'll still be in round six.

That would be great. I would be into that all the time. And Dalton Schultz right behind him, too. All right. I would say Alan Lazard for me also, to answer his question. This is a question, I guess, Heath, you can start. From Jake.

In a situation like the Broncos, new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new quarterback, how do you do projections? Pass from the head coach, pass from the coordinator, the quarterback, combination, how do you do projections? Yeah, I mean, it's just a complete and total guess. And it frustrates the heck out of me, and I hate it. And I end up just moving the guys more to probably using my projections less for that team. But it's a mixture for me of Hackett and Wilson. And one of the toughest places,

I think, is with running back targets on this team. Because they've got a bunch of wide receivers, we just talked about them, and a quarterback who hasn't thrown to his running backs that much. But they've got an offensive coordinator whose team has thrown to running backs a ton and been running back centric in fact um so it it's a it's a very tough thing to do uh from dustin from the land of ice and snow i don't know is that uh what's Jon Snow's place? His little kingdom? Winterfell?

I'll just say Winterfell. Uh, dear Percy, Cordero, Stefan, and Justin. Oh, he's probably from Minnesota. Uh, I just started a new job, and apparently there is a large PPR league, 14 or greater, 14 teams or greater. I've never played in a league larger than 10 teams before and obviously don't know how

people will draft in this league. Can you give me any and all advice you could think of in this deep league so I can mop the floor with my coworkers? Deep league advice? 14 or more. It's a little greater than 14. I would say lean toward pass catchers. Take too early

and throw a lot of capital at running backs in the middle rounds. Yeah, in that format, I'm probably going to end up punting until the double-digit rounds on either quarterback or tight end and maybe both. Yeah, definitely take advantage of the quarterback depth.

All right, this is from Rob. I had a question about who I should take at certain rounds of the draft. So this is fun. He listed three players at each spot, basically, and you have to pick your favorite. Half PPR. Adams, Diggs, Kelsey. In half PPR?

Yeah. Kelsey. Yeah. Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, T. Higgins. Brown. Brown. Cam Akers, Ezekiel Elliott, Brees Hall. Akers.

I think right now I have it, Zeke. Gabe Davis, Adam Thielen, Juju Smith-Schuster. David. Thielen. I want to address someone in the chat here. His name is Don Saxby. And he rips me all the time because he says i talk about davante smith a lot i don't even think that's true by the way no so he just called me a bleep sack in the chat and he said how's davante smith so don

if you're listening right now, I'd like to know, are you joking around with me? Do you not like me? I'd like to know your intentions here, Don. I'd rather, I'm more interested in what his problem is with Devante Smith. He thinks I bring him up. Do you guys think I bring up Devante Smith all the time? Well, I mean, you just did.

You found a way to. I was really just trying to bring up a bleep sack um i think you should ask don to do a whole project on why he thinks they're bleep deck and come up with a spreadsheet and then maybe have them on we can discuss it but i don't think i really don't think i do i i mean maybe there was a while where i was serious with davante smith but not anymore it's all sudden word goes before sec is it a word that you would say if not part of this context without trouble oh yeah yeah yeah it's just i couldn't say them both together you know okay is it a word we say a lot on the podcast not in reference to this no it's the other one okay yeah pistachio macadamia, harlan pepper, quit David nuts.

Um, Oh, okay. Jake says, make a high, make a haiku of why Adam is a bleepsack. I can, that anybody wants to,

okay. If you're in the YouTube chat, make a haiku about why I suck and I will read it. Go for it. Excellent. This is so glad I'm here. Wow. You made it about you read it. Go for it. Excellent. So glad I'm here. Wow, you made it about you. Yes, there you go.

Wow, you made it about you. Is that six or seven syllables? That could definitely be the middle there. Look at Adam. Made show about him, as always. Not even close. This is from Conrad in a city that can be sleepless. You think it's New York or Seattle? Pittsburgh.

Okay. Or Philly, home of Devontae Smith. 10-team 2QB league where we start four wide receivers and two running backs and a tight end and a flex. Alright. 2QBs, four wide receivers, two running backs, tight end, flex,

and it's 10 teams. How would you value the quarterback in this league? Early. How would you value the quarterback in this league? Early. I would like an elite quarterback. Okay. From Ryan in Virginia Beach. What was that? I don't know.

Virginia Beach. Virginia starts with a V, right? It does. Who has with a V, right? It does. Who has a V in their name? Vavante Smith, of course. That was close. What'd you say? Subject.

Am I a contender? 10 team, half PPR, three receivers, three flex. All right. Am I a contender or should I be rebuilding? It's a one QB league, by the way. He has Russell Wilson and Jalen Hurts. That's good. He has Barkley, ETN, Dillon, Clyde, Pollard, and Edmonds.

He has McLaurin, DJ Moore, Mike Williams, Michael Pittman, Chase Claypool, TJ Hawkinson at tight end, and he has pick 102, which he's probably going to use on Drake London. Remember, it's 10 teams and it's half PPR. You're a contender. Yeah, yeah. This is the kind of team for sure that even if you're not sure,

it's close enough to where you get to midseason and find out before you start doing anything with it. The nice thing is it's okay to have a year in the middle if you're young and you're moving towards the top. The middle years are really a problem when you're old. If you get to the middle of the season and you don't think you're a contender, then trade Barkley and trade Mike Williams and keep the rest of the squad together. Or you could package two players for hopefully one young up-and-coming superstar. Is this a haiku?

Adam sucks. We're missing some syllables. All right. This is from a team fighting Philly from Newport beach, California. Can you please spend more time on Devante? Sorry. Can you please spend more time on salary cap leagues?

I love the snake draft shows. It would be awesome if you can help with salary cap leagues i love the snake draft shows it would be awesome if you can help with salary cap strategies maybe at least touch on it once in a while all right heath go first give me some salary cap advice we should do a salary cap show like just a whole show we will we get ready for it um Yeah. I would like, I think one good way to think about it is do I have a first round player? Do I have a second round player? Do I have a third round player? And in shallower leagues,

especially in leagues where there's three or four guys in your league who aren't really going to pay very much attention. I would really like to get two first rounders and not worry about depth as much. Do you agree with this? One of the struggles I have with salary cap episodes is much more so than in a snake draft. Salary cap drafts are just so different from draft to draft. That's why it's hard to do the content because obviously you can get some random wacky picks in a snake draft, but in a salary cap draft, it's just all bets are off and it's hard to really give concrete advice. Things are just so different. I think you have to know who you are as a fantasy player. Keith touched on this a little bit.

If you know you're going a little bit if you know you're going to be aggressive playing the the waiver wire then you could take some more chances on some high-end guys if you know the rest of your league is going to be in the same situation then you probably want to have a little bit more balance to your team so that you have some good guys on your bench to fill in because the waiver wire might be a little bit more barren as the season unfolds you know so you have to kind of know your league i think that's the biggest thing if you're joining a league for the first time, then it just comes down to how aggressive you want to be.

Like I'm typically the, the, the manager that doesn't have first round picks because I like to have multiple seconds, multiple thirds and multiple fourths. And so I balanced my budget a little bit more that way. And then I go about building my team a different way. So I don't have the high end superstar,

but I have a very balanced approach with some guys that have some league winning ability. That's typically the way I like to do a salary cap, you know, a roster. So it's, it's more theory. I think Adam,

you know, is this how you, you know, go about the content and you just use a salary cap draft. I think, you know, we've done a better job the last couple of years of doing two of them as opposed to just doing one for content purposes on the site.

We usually do one early in camp and then one toward the end of camp. And then as far as nominating strategy, I like Jamie's strategy of nominating your kicker and your defense and getting the ones you want or making somebody pay up for those. And then also, I really like to nominate the expensive guys that I don't want. Yes. Corey, yeah, absolutely. It's very frustrating, though, when everybody now knows that I don't want. Yes. Corey. Yeah, absolutely. It's very frustrating though. When everybody now knows that I do that and they all do the same thing from Terrence in Ireland.

When you get a chance, could you explain the ranking solo of Matt Ryan? I mean, Mills golf, even true Bisky ahead of Matt Ryan. I really don't get it, especially with the team and division he is in now, even though he's not a runner still,

am I completely missing something on Matt Ryan? Well, I think the thing for me with Ryan is how much of last year was the offense and the situation and how much of that was just him kind of hitting a wall at this point in his career. You mentioned he doesn't run. This isn't a receiving core that's very dynamic. It's Michael Pittman and a bunch of ifs and hopes. I like Alec Pierce. I'm hopeful for Paris Campbell. We'll see what they do at tight end. You know, Molly Cox was like the starter going into the season. But their best player is Jonathan Taylor. Their second best player is Pittman, but you can make a case that Naeem Hines is third. And so, you know, the strength of this team is in their backfield. And so I don't know how many touchdowns Ryan's going to throw. I don't think he's going to approach 4,500 yards. I don't know if he's even going to approach a 4,000 yard season. You know, so if I had a ballpark, I'd probably say 41, 4,200 passing yards, maybe 25, 30 touchdowns. It just doesn't seem like an overwhelming stat season for a guy that's going to win games. And I think they're the best team in that division.

But I just don't know if he's going to be the reason why from a statistical standpoint that they do. This one comes from Chris from the 416. Where do you think that is? 416 area code. Illinois. Devontante Smith played Alabama it looks like Kansas no it doesn't

Devante Smith played Alabama so maybe it's in the south ok here we go the question I don't know why I can't find this okay we gotta spend some more time you would think uh toronto what area code is 416 it's toronto okay toronto toronto toronto i think you're not supposed to say the T. Okay, from Chris. Oronto?

Yeah, Oronto. Hey, Eddie, Dave, and Alex. Huh. Three people I assigned work to. Eddie Vedder, Dave Grohl, and... Well, that could be. I don't know who Alex would be. Alex in chains. I've listened to the show

for a few years now. I don't... Maybe. I've never heard you guys talk about bye week strategy. I never pay attention to bye weeks when I draft and I always find myself trading at a loss throughout the season to field a team on certain weeks. So what are your thoughts on bye weeks?

I only look at them for quarterbacks and tight ends if i take two um but the last thing you really want to do is necessarily build your team around that if you take a loss in a week because you have a really stacked roster that sucks but i think you just live with it but you know if you have a tiebreaker let's say you're you know you're you're looking at jefferson and chase or uh mike williams and courtland sutton you know and and the the bye week is something that you already have too much of from your other rosters or other players in your rock i guess chasing and jefferson would apply but you know we get the middle rounds you start to look at players that you have on your team and you have a lot of similar bye weeks so maybe try to avoid it if it's if it's a similar one or you have a lot of

guys on the same bible you try to avoid a similar one but i don't necessarily plan my draft around it i mostly just ignore it um unless it's like the ffpc or the scott fishbowl or one of those leagues where the regular season ends before the buys do. Uh, this is Van Halen, by the way, Eddie Van Halen, David Lee Roth,

and Alex Van Halen. Apparently. Oh, didn't know there was an Alex Van Halen. Here's a haiku from federalist 45. Unfortunate host deals with Heath's melancholy, more noodle than nut. I don't know what that last one is.

Am I melancholy? I don't know. You've been a little grumpy lately. Last couple of days, you've been a little grump. I don't think, I think it's different. Because mostly I'm making jokes. Grumpiness would not be joking about it. They're really harsh. You've been very harsh.

All right. Here's another question. I apologize. This one's from Luke. Dear Danny, Rusty, Linus, and Tess.

Aerosmith. What is the argument? I'm just kidding. What is the argument that could be made for taking Justin Jefferson over Cup? And along that note,

is it unreasonable to take a wide receiver with the second overall pick? It's not unreasonable. Has our TikTok come out yet by the way? I don't have a TikTok so I'll have to wait for somebody else to tell me.

We made a TikTok debating the number two player. Oh, really? I just want you to say when I'm making those biting jokes, melancholy is the exact opposite of the way two player. Oh, really? I just want you to say when I'm making those biting jokes, melancholy is the exact opposite of the way I feel. Uh, what do you, so Jefferson over cup,

what do you think? I know you don't rank it that way, but one is ascending. One just had a career year at age 28. Those players usually regress and Mattheword's still recovering from elbow surgery. It's also one of the coaches that helped Cooper Cup become Cooper Cup is now coaching the Vikings. Yep.

Dustin Jefferson. Danny, Rusty, Linus, and Tess were from the Oceans series. Good show. Oceans 11. No, not a show. Which is your favorite, Adam? Never saw them. None of them?

Are they good? The first one is amazing. Yeah, I don't know why I never saw them. I feel like they're very long. Can I tell you a story about my 12-year-old officially? One more email. Not becoming my favorite kid anymore. One more email?

One more email. Okay, here we go. From... Oh, I don't have a name. From Lucas in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. There we go. Dear Michael Thomas, Calvin Ridley, AJ Brown, Jerry Judy, and DK Metcalf.

In order, those are my three keeper wide receivers plus the wide receiver I drafted and the wide receiver I traded for mid-seasonseason leading to my worst record in 25 years of playing michael thomas calvin ridley aj brown jerry judy dk metcalf um here's a quiz and a deep keeper slash dynasty question one who was emory hunt's top college running back on your pre-draft podcast? Two, what round was he drafted? This year or last year? This year. Three, what team is he on?

And four, what are his chances to be his team's number two running back this year and number one running back next year? So just for everybody else out there, who was Emory Hunt's top college running back on your pre-draft podcast? What round was he drafted by which team? And what are his chances to be his team's number two running back this year pre-draft podcast? What round was he drafted? By which team? And what are his chances

to be his team's number two running back this year and number one next year? I forgot, by the way. I was not on the show. It was Jay Sean Corbin out of Florida State. He went undrafted. He is now on the Giants.

And what are his chances to be his team's number two running back this year and number one running back next year? Slim's looking for a place with little competition to be the number two. That's a good place to be. I know. Warm body there. Probably, considering undrafted, probably slim to none, but

you're right. That is of all the running back, who has a worse handcuff situation than who's third on the depth chart right now? Is it him? Antonio Williams, Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell. Put those in whatever order you would like. I don't think Matt

Breida comes in and starts like toting the rock a lot, you know? Alright, so good question. Jay Sean Corbin. I'll just sign Frank Gore, Jordan Howard or something. Probably pick Zach Moss up when the bills cut him. Yeah,

probably. All right, Heath, what do you got? Uh, your, your dynasty question. That was his dynasty question was about Jay Sean Corbin.

Oh, it was, it was part of the trivia. Yeah. Do you remember who emory's second favorite running back was last year puka williams no was he his third his second was michael carter oh cool there we go uh what do you like michael carter over i know you like carter a No, I don't think so.

Maybe. Maybe he had ETN number one. I know he likes guys who catch the ball. I think he had Carter first. Maybe. Heath, what do you got? What's your story? So, like, Lucas, I told you we have this thing,

and you said that I was a bad parent for letting him watch Stranger Things. And fine. He's watched the first three seasons, seasons like seven times um we've watched all the originals together um we've been talking about um having a little stranger things watch party today i know what i know where this is going this afternoon i'm sorry um we wake up to a text message he's at his he was at his grandmother's last night um we wake up from a text message like one or two in the morning um some one of his friends had texted him about a fourth of july basketball tournament he wanted to play in and sorry i know i'm up late i'm just waiting for stranger things to release so i can watch it that is he watched stranger things while I was sleeping. How did you feel, honestly? What?

How did you feel? Melvin Golley? Betrayed. Melvin Golley. Just texted him and said, I'm going to have to update the power rankings. You were mad, though? Mad? Yeah.

No, just hurt. Okay. Where it reads on my haikus. Actually, that only one i saw i wrote one though adam scott azer hardest working podcast host great delegator right yeah yeah some of that's true you are one of those things true i am adam scott azer that is that is correct. All right, guys. Thanks. Have a great 4th of July, everybody.

We'll talk to you on Tuesday. What time are we doing the emergency pod? With the toughest players for what? Something happened? I'm sure something will happen. The toughest players to project. Tuesday's show. Talk to you then.