Fantasy Football Today - State of the Quarterback Position + Best Vets For Contenders, Favorite Buys & Sells (Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

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Starting point is 00:00:50 banking products. Yep, that's $2,700 to turn up your business. Visit td.com slash small business match to learn more. Conditions apply. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host Heath Cummings and today we have for you our final state of the position. The quarterback position and who better to break down the quarterback position than my good friend Jay Jay tell everybody where they can find your work and why it makes sense that you're here on the QB show. So I think you froze there for just a second, but I appreciate you having me, Ethan. Yeah. I am now the, I'm over at QB, Lee. I'm getting an echo somewhere. I'm not sure if that's me. Sorry about that. And so Joel and Jay figure out. I'm not sure if that's me. Sorry about that. And so Joel and Jay figure out what's going on here.

Starting point is 00:01:47 On today's show, we are going to have kind of the same thing we've done for most of the positions. I will give you my top 12. We have buys, we have sells, we have sleepers. We've got several questions that I want to ask Jay about evaluating the quarterback position, how he feels about this rookie class. We will have maybe some potential waiver wire

Starting point is 00:02:14 ads. Those are hard to find in a super flex league for sure. We'll try to get some of your chat questions as well. So if you have questions in the chat, and I'll go over to Twitter and make sure I retweet for anybody. I always say this. I know some of you guys watch it. I should say X, shouldn't I? I know some of you guys watch it on X. Some of you watch it on YouTube. If you want to ask questions, you need to come over here to YouTube because I can't see your questions over on Twitter or X. We're just waiting for Jay to get his system all figured out so that, uh, make sure that he can hear me and let's just, uh, Harry, I'm going to call an audible here at the top of the show. So first off, while, while Harry, uh, if he has my top 12 list, if you don't, that's fine. I'll just read it off. But I wanted to start off with my top 12 quarterbacks at the position. And I, you know, I'm not

Starting point is 00:03:09 afraid of a little controversy right at the very top. Jaden Daniels, QB1. He's my QB1 for redraft. He's younger than anybody else on this list. How could he not be my QB1 for dynasty? Then I have Lamar Jackson. I have Josh Allen, Joe Burroughs, QB4, Jalen Hertz QB5, Patrick Mahomes QB6. I want to stay on these top six for a second, because in terms of my value, I've seen a lot of people frame this as kind of one big tier. And in certain ways it is, there's a bigger difference between Mahomes at six and my QB seven than there is between Mahomes at six and Jaden Daniels. So in that respect, I think saying that it's just one tier makes a little bit of sense.

Starting point is 00:03:56 On the other hand, I've got a pretty big difference between one through three, Daniels, Lamar and Allen, and four through six, Burrow, Hertz and Mahomes. That could change. If Joe Burrow does what he did last year for a second year, then I don't think there's any doubt that people are going to move him in to that top tier at the quarterback position. If Jalen Hertz just keeps up what he's been doing, he might move there as well. And Patrick Mahomes, I think we're all just kind of waiting for that next great Patrick Mahomes season. You can't put him in the top tier until that happens, but also nobody wants to rule it out.

Starting point is 00:04:39 Let's go ahead and move to QB seven through 12. Again, a big gap after the top six, and then Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix and what I will say is first off I'm sorry to my Drake May fans he's QB 13 the difference between him and Nix flip a coin so I don't really hear that much hey Jay's back you know you've already got the chat active. I was just rolling through my top 12. We'll come back to the top 12 in a second for Jay. Let's go ahead and jump into our three questions for our

Starting point is 00:05:16 guest about the quarterback position. And I will say like we've we've heard a lot all summer long about how this is maybe historically great running back class people are very excited about the tight ends colston loveland and tyler warner and even some of the younger guys i don't hear a lot of positive things jay about this rookie quarterback class and i think we all know why but can you give me some positivity about the 2025 rookie quarterback class? Are they gonna help us out in fantasy at all?

Starting point is 00:05:47 Yeah, actually there's a couple of guys. Cam Ward isn't getting enough love. I don't think he's a generational prospect like we hear every single season. As he was getting drafted on ESPN, they were showing Shador Sanders or something about him and where was he gonna go? So I think he's getting enough love and a lot of it has to do with Calvin Ridley. Calvin Ridley was a lot better than people gave him credit for last season. He had the highest average depth of target among all wide receivers.

Starting point is 00:06:16 He was just one of four that averaged over 100 air yards a game, but 50% or less of the, excuse me, less than 50% of those were catchable thanks to Will Levesse's 35.7% completion percentage on deep throws, 20 or 20 more yards down the field. And Cam Ward, while he was somewhat inconsistent with his accuracy downfield, he's tied for the most throws of 20 or more yards in the Power 4 conferences through 14 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 46% completion rate on those passes. Not anything necessarily to write home about, but a significant upgrade over Will Levesse.

Starting point is 00:06:56 If they're able to connect on a decent amount of those, I think Ken Ward can be a solid, whether it's Superflex looking at QB2 or 1 QB, somebody who could be low end QB one. You know, I think people may hear you say that Calvin Ridley is underrated and kind of doubt that I love it when the universes work together though, because I was on Twitter before the show. And Matt Harmon's doing a thread about how Calvin Ridley was actually very good last year. and Matt Harmon's doing a thread about how Calvin Ridley was actually very good last year. So yes, I agree with you. I have questions about, I'm not sure Ward is going to be elite as a thrower, and I'm not sure he's going to run enough to make up for that. But I do think he's undervalued. And when we, if we were doing my next 24, I think it would show that. I've got them at QB 16 in dynasty. So I have some optimism there. We have a question already in the chat

Starting point is 00:07:50 that we'll get to at the end of the show about Cam Ward versus Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence. And so we'll have that discussion a little bit later. Again, if you have questions for us and you're watching here on YouTube, make sure that you make sure you get those in there. We will have time for your questions later. Question number two, what do you think is the most important thing about

Starting point is 00:08:12 projecting young quarterbacks moving forward? It's kind of a simple kind of basic answer but honestly just showing some sort of improvement from year to year. I mean that the list is miles long when it comes to rookie quarterbacks who had terrible seasons that eventually become multiple, multiple times Superbowl champions, hall of famers, you know, you're Steve young, Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman more recently, Jared Goff, Alex Smith, even Josh Allen, you know, but people forget that people were wondering if this was just another QB bus for Buffalo before he made that leap and made that jump with his completion But people forget that people were wondering if this was just another QB bus for Buffalo

Starting point is 00:08:45 before he made that leap and made that jump with his completion percentage and became the stud that he is. So pretty basic here, just somebody that's willing, you know, improvement because it shows a willingness to put in the work, their ability to take instruction, their dedication. All these guys are talented. It's just whether they're willing to put in the work to try to, to make those improvements. I think that's probably more true going into this year of Caleb Williams than

Starting point is 00:09:10 anyone, because we all loved the potential. We all thought he could be one of the greats and last year he was flat out terrible. And so hopefully with a new offensive coordinator, hopefully he settles in and starts getting the ball out on time. That's a guy to watch. If you don't see improvement from Caleb Williams in the first half of this season, might be time to pull the plug. Question number three,

Starting point is 00:09:34 who's really simple one. Who's your favorite breakout quarterback this year? Jordan love. Um, I'm back in on Jordan love. You know, he was somebody that at this time last year was being drafted inside the top 10 and redraft leagues and everybody was all about the Jordan love breakout and it's not like he played that bad last year. The injury really hampered him. He had a MCL injury week one missed a couple games came back and you could tell he wasn't the same just not it. Not quite as mobile.

Starting point is 00:10:01 His mobility was limited wasn't able to move around in the pocket. He doesn't add a whole lot on the ground, but he'll chip in a couple of yards here and there, and had less than 100 yards rushing on the season. Among quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts, Love's still finished in the top 10 yards per attempt in touchdowns and average depth of target, and nearly every single category for deep passes.

Starting point is 00:10:26 He was 68 despite only playing 15 games. He had 68 attempts downfield, 25 completions and four touchdowns and which was tied for the six months and he threw the ball downfield at a 16% rate which was the highest in the league. So you you know, I know it's unfortunately won't have Christian Watson this year or will sometime but we don't know when but still boasts one of the the deepest wide receiver cores in the entire league and Finally finally, I'm sure Aaron Rodgers loved to see that the Packers know the story We've all heard a million times that they drafted a wide receiver in the first round Matthew golden out of Texas He's a stud. He fits right into what this offense is trying to do.

Starting point is 00:11:07 And I think that Jordan Love is primed for that bounce, excuse me, that breakout that many thought he was gonna have last season. It's one of those things I always talk about a couple of guys in James Cook and Mike Evans that I was really high going into last year on and now I find myself way below consensus on. So I have to talk about them differently,

Starting point is 00:11:26 and Jordan loves the opposite. And maybe I just bring up the ones I was right about. I probably don't mention the guys that I was wrong about last year, but Jordan Love, I was very skeptical of the top 10 ranking. And now I think perception's falling way too low on him, and he's actually a great value. We'll talk about that more when we get to my top 12.

Starting point is 00:11:42 We had one question I'll go ahead and get to from Mike in the chat. Has Jay gushed about Trevor Lawrence yet? Just wait, Mike. It's coming. We'll be back right after this break. We are back and I already read through my top 12. Give a few of my thoughts on them. So now we're gonna get Jay's thoughts on the top 12. I'll read the list one more time and kind of mention where I have the tier break. So it's Jaden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and a small tear break.

Starting point is 00:12:08 And then it's Joe Burrow, Jalen Hertz, Patrick Mahomes, and a huge tear break. And then I kind of view Caleb Williams at QB7 as the bridge. We have the hope that he can jump into that top six, but it's mostly just hope. And then my final five are Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, who Jay just mentioned, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, and I just, I didn't put them on the list because they're not in the top 12, but Drake May, CJ Stroud, not far behind that. If I was doing it by tiers, they'd still be in the same tier as Herbert and Nix and those guys at the bottom. So that's my top 12. Let's go, let's start at the top because I know it's a,

Starting point is 00:12:50 it was more controversial a couple of months ago when I had Jaden Daniels as QB1 in Dynasty. I'm seeing more people kind of coming around to that now. Do you have any strong opinions on Daniels versus Jackson versus Allen, or is it just, these guys are all in one tier? It's great if you get the cheapest one. Yeah, that's literally what I wrote down in my notes is those guys are in the same tier. I want to go after whoever is going to cost me the least. You know, Jane Daniels is the youngest and people get caught up in youth so much in dynasty. But we've seen Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen do it for multiple seasons. We've

Starting point is 00:13:24 I think he will most of us do, but we haven't seen Jane Josh Allen do it for multiple seasons. I think he will, most of us do, but we haven't seen Jayden Daniels do it for multiple seasons. So there's that risk built in there and I think that kind of offsets the age thing with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Yeah, I'm with you. I think that's the tear break and then you go on to Joe Burrow, Jaylen Hertz, Patrick Mahomes. I know you're gonna love to hear this. I think people are way, way, way, way, way too down on him this season. They're forgetting how young he is. And I'm not betting against a pissed off Patrick Mahomes. I'm sorry, that's just me.

Starting point is 00:13:52 And one of the few guys that's potentially, you know, can press Brady for the greatest of all time. I would actually go ahead and probably put Caleb Williams up in that next tier with those guys, definitely at the bottom. And- Jay believes in the hope a little more than I do. I do. And that's actually, um, my first series over at QB lists was flag plants.

Starting point is 00:14:12 And Caleb Williams was one of my quarterback flag plants. And he actually wasn't as bad as you think last season. Um, even though he faced pressure on 29% of his drop backs, only 2% of his passes were considered turnover worthy. Um, I know the numbers really weren't there, but he – passing numbers weren't there, but he was still seventh – seventh-most rushing yards, averaged six yards to carry. And what they've done with the offensive line – I mean, the offensive line was awful last season. We all know that. They really made some strides there. I love the weapons adding Luther Burden and Colston Loveland to DJ Moore and Roma Doomsday. So I'm this we nail on the head if he doesn't do it this season. I know it's really early to say do or die. But I mean last season everybody was saying, Oh, you know, it's the best situation that a quarterpacks ever had coming in over one overall number one overall. But

Starting point is 00:15:02 I think for a sophomore, this might be the best situation. It is a fantastic situation. I want to kind of look at the bottom of the list. I'm glad you kind of covered Caleb there because it's the next five guys where I get the most disagreement and controversy within my rankings from other people specifically with having Brock Purdy at eight but Purdy love Kyler Herbert and Nix who is your favorite from that group and why? Favorite is love is pretty much what we talked about earlier I feel like out of that grouping he has the potential to jump into the top five that the clearest path and multiple seasons of it. I think, you know, with his youth, even though he's somewhat older than, you know, the Bo Nix's of the world,

Starting point is 00:15:52 just the offensive system and the weapons that he has, I'm not to be too cheesy, but I love Jordan Love. Right, yeah, no. So I think everybody who looks at those five wants to argue with me that one of them doesn't belong in the top 12. Which of those five amongst Purdy, Love, Murray, Herbert, and Nix, would you say don't belong in the top 12 or do you have all those guys in the top 12 too? And if so, which one's number 12?

Starting point is 00:16:20 It would probably be between Brock Purdy and Bo Nix. And I know I've been getting a lot of flack bombed down on Bo Nix compared to most. He was one of, I think, 11 quarterbacks that threw 25, over 25 touchdowns and his yards for a attempt were low. Sorry, I lost my notes there. There we go. There we go. Yeah, eighth in completion percentage in yards. Last out of those 11,

Starting point is 00:16:53 he was eighth in completion percentage in yards, last in yards per attempt and tied for the most interceptions. His rushing gave him a safe floor, but he really wasn't that efficient rushing. He had 4.7 yards per carry, which is actually lower than Geno Smith. So it was really more of a quantity versus quality. You know, what if these, you know, JK Dobbins and what's the other RJ Harvey, amen, like, you know,

Starting point is 00:17:17 they want to run the ball. What if he those 92 attempts drops to 6570, then I feel like he's, he's being drafted as at his ceiling. You know, he has some room for improvement for passing, but I just don't see him jumping into that top five potential tier. So I think, um, like obviously I have more confidence in Purdy than Nick's and I, it's a coin flip for me between Nick's and May. I still like Nix's situation better than May's. And that's because of some of my Stefan Diggs skepticism. If Diggs just turns back into his 29 year old self, then that's going to look a little bit foolish. But I will say in defense of Purdy, and you've referenced that number of yards per attempt, which is a good way to measure quarterbacks.

Starting point is 00:18:03 And everyone seems to think that unless you're in a Kyle Shanahan system, and then it's Kyle Shanahan, it's not what the quarterbacks doing. And there's some truth to that. But Brock Purdy is going to be with Kyle Shanahan for the next three to five years. So I don't think that's going away. I thought he got a little unlucky in terms of the touchdowns last year. And maybe my most important case or point for a bull case for Purdy is I think we may see the worst San Francisco defense that they've had since he joined the team. I expect him to smash his career high in pass attempts. And if he maintains anywhere close to the same efficiencies had in terms of yards per attempt, that's going to give him a chance to throw for 45, 4,600 yards this year.

Starting point is 00:18:47 And with the touchdowns, positive regression that I expect, I think he's right back to being a top 10 quarterback again. Yeah. And actually on my flag plants, I went by position by position and I tend to avoid drafting the elite tight ends, but one guy who I would draft the season is George Gittle because of that. Um, like you said, one of my main points was the defense in San Francisco is not going to be what we're used to. They lost so many guys. And I'm with you. I think that rock parties, you know, next couple of seasons, especially as can have plenty of

Starting point is 00:19:16 opportunity to throw. So Drake may CJ Stroud of the two guys I said are very close to the top 12. If I, if we didn't just break things down that way, I probably are very close to the top 12. If I if we didn't just break things down that way, I probably would have just said my top 14. I did that at one other position earlier. But between Drake May and CJ Stroud, what's what's your best case for including one of those guys, the top 12 quarterback? I'm still I still believe in CJ Stroud. He faced pressure at the highest rate of any other quarterback in the league last season 3 34% of the time sack the second most with 52 when he was given a clean pocket his completion percentage was 70%

Starting point is 00:19:59 Under pressure it drops all the way to forty seven point six. So almost his yards per attempt dropped by a full yard They revamped the the offensive line never in it It's not going to be one of the best in the league, but it certainly has nowhere to go but up. You know, they signed veterans, Lakin Tomlinson, Cam Robinson, Trent Brown, traded for Ed Ingram, and they drafted Ariante Ursery, I believe, is that how you pronounce it? In the second round.

Starting point is 00:20:18 So I think that there's gonna be some growing pains, but he's gonna be given, I feel like he's gonna feel less pressure than he did did last year and the offensive coordinator, Nick Haley. They've already talked about how they're hitting it off that he's giving them a lot more giving Stroud a lot more responsibility at the line of scrimmage and letting him take command, which was not the case with previous regimes. So that and then you know, they they invested in weapons for him.

Starting point is 00:20:45 We're not going to see tank Dell this season, unfortunately, but traded for Christian Kirk and drafted the Iowa State teammates Jane Higgins. And man, I just think that especially for what he costs, there's he might be my second favorite by out of the new quarterback. And I know who your first favorite buy is and some people in the chat do also. Let's leave him out of it when we start thinking about our favorite QB2s that we haven't talked about. I did want to say in Stroud's favor is just, I'm a pretty big fan of Jaden Higgins game. And I, so I, and I, they've got Christian Kirk, who is nothing else, a very solid slot. It's not as good as the receiving core was going into that last year, but because of the injuries that digs and tank suffered and because we had five games without Nico Collins,

Starting point is 00:21:39 I think there's a very good chance when we get to the end of the year that the full season, CJ Stroud had a better receiving core than he had last year. If everybody can just stay healthy. Who are your favorite QB twos, excluding the guy who is your favorite by we'll talk about him after the break. That would be it. But actually it's, um, a guy that I hope I'm not stepping on any toes, but you wanted to talk about already. I'm really in on Justin Fields this year, which just feels weird for me to say because I've never really in on Justin Fields this year, which feels weird for me to say because

Starting point is 00:22:05 I've never been in on Justin Fields from a fantasy perspective. But I one I think that Aaron Glenn is really has a great shot of doing what Dan Campbell did in Detroit with the Jets and turning that circus of a franchise into something respectable and solid. He's Justin Fields hasn't been the passing quarterback that he was in college, but he's capable. He was capable over 5,700 yards and 62 touchdowns in college. His completion percentage and QB rating have all gone up every single year of his career. If he can just be a decent passer with his rushing upside, he can easily jump into the top 10 of quarterbacks. I feel like he's got a pretty safe floor with his rushing. And like I said, if he takes even just a modest step forward in his passing production, he could really have a great season. Yeah, I think he

Starting point is 00:22:58 is probably the most format dependent quarterback in dynasty. And it's for two different distinctions even like for one, if you're in a one quarterback league, I'm not so sure that Justin field shouldn't be a top 12 quarterback because how, why do you care about a player's floor in a one quarterback league when it's so easy to have these low cost options that are going to give you borderline top 12 production in a super flex league, that's more difficult because this could be his last year in the starter as a starter in the NFL, if things go poorly. And then he's obviously more valuable in leagues that reward four points per pass touchdown than six points per pass touchdown. Most CBS leagues are

Starting point is 00:23:40 six. Most everywhere else is four. He has 45 passing touchdowns in 50 career games and still has produced as a top 12 quarterback most of the time that he's been the starter. So I think it really, if you're in a, a one QB league that is only four points per pass touchdown, well, Justin Fields definitely should be a top 12 dynasty quarterback. If you're in a super flex league that's six points per pass touchdown, that's a much more difficult argument to make. And you really have to have a solid QB three fields is my most rostered quarterback in dynasty. I just took him yesterday in the FSG experts league,

Starting point is 00:24:19 which is a one QB league for redraft. So I love that answer. I'm all in on fields. As long as the format is right, scares me a little bit. Otherwise, some, Matt had a, had a comment, Heath plays in six point per pass, such down leagues. You know, I've, I've got a good mix of those things. I've got two leagues. I think my preference is probably six. My preference and speaking of which I've been putting together the rules for the the new FFT dynasty show league that will be announced very shortly and bid auction opportunities to join that league and support St. Jude will be

Starting point is 00:25:02 opening up very shortly. But I did go with six points for past touchdown on that as well. I want to talk about a few things I didn't put in the notes, but I want to make sure we mentioned these guys because a lot of people play super flex and it is really important. So guys like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and even going down to Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, even Aaron Rodgers, over 30 years old. So we're a little less certain about the long-term future and maybe limited upside,

Starting point is 00:25:32 but they definitely have the potential to be top 12 guys. Who's your favorite of those veteran quarter QB2s if you're a contender and you need to add one? I would probably stick, still stick with Jared Goff. I know a lot of people are concerned with Ben Johnson leaving, but I don't, this offense isn't just going to fall flat on their face. They still have the weapons. They still, like I said, I think very highly of Dan Campbell. I think that they're really not going to miss a step. The other guy is, you know, I think Aaron Rogers is actually going to be a little better

Starting point is 00:26:07 than most people assume this year. I think the well-deserved, well, personal hate, well, deserved, you know, whether that's here nor there, but I think that that kind of clouds people's judgment a little bit. If he's on the field, DK Metcalf, I mean, Calvin Austin isn't a bad wide receiver too. I think he can be definitely limited ceiling, but more of the foreplay and I think people are completely avoiding him. But out of those guys, I would have to go with Jared Goff. I'm still going with Dak. He is a couple years older and he's had a few injury problems. But I think if Dak's right this year with CD lamb, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson,

Starting point is 00:26:46 that could be a league winning acquisition. That's a little bit too cheap because of the age. So that's probably where I'd go a couple of second year guys that we, or younger guys that we didn't really get to yet. I just want to see if you, how much hope you have. JJ McCarthy hasn't done anything at all in the NFL yet, but he gets to play in Kevin O'Connell system, he gets to play with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hawkins. And you're talking about the best situations a

Starting point is 00:27:09 second year quarterback could be in. He may challenge Caleb Williams, but we've seen nothing from him. How do you value J.J. McCarthy right now? I like him. I think that, um, I think he's obviously not anywhere close to like the Caleb Williams and stuff like that. I actually sold high and What was it it was I traded JJ McCarthy. He was my third quarterback JJ McCarthy for Justin Fields and the 107 in a super flex lead which turned out to be Tet Macmillan So basically Fields and Tet for JJ McCarthy and I was I was happy with that return But like you said, I mean playing in this system

Starting point is 00:27:48 We saw one game what he could do obviously preseason, but it depends how he's being valued I wouldn't you know There's some people that are willing to already throw him into the top ten that nowhere near that But I put him in that high-end QB to range where he's got the potential to have those top 10 seasons, but I'm gonna stop short of you know, long term top three anything like that and The the floor is a lot lower than most people want to admit with him as well That's why if if you're able to sell high and get that QB one value, it might be worth it for you I'll just throw three guys at you for you to rank here and then we'll take a

Starting point is 00:28:25 break and then we'll get to our favorite buys, but JJ McCarthy, Michael Pinnix and Cam Ward, how would you rank those three in dynasty? I would, I would probably go Pinnix then McCarthy, then a pretty big drop to Cam Ward. Okay. Okay. So I actually have it in the reverse order, but I think the great thing about that QBT to range, whether you're talking about the quarterback, the older quarterbacks like Dak and Goff and Mayfield, where they're talking about the young guys is there is a consensus because we can average everybody's takes out and we'll find a consensus there's a consensus ADP but it doesn't go that way in every draft in fact you'd have a hard time finding three drafts where they go in

Starting point is 00:29:15 the same order so if you have a guy that is your favorite amongst that group that you strongly prefer you can probably get him you just got to find the right manager let's take our second break. We'll get to our buys and our sells after this. We are back. It's time to give you our favorite buys and sells at the quarterback position. Some people in the chat have been waiting 30 minutes for you to do this, Jay. So who is your favorite dynasty buy at the quarterback position?

Starting point is 00:29:42 Yeah, my guy Mike talked about it earlier in the chat, but I'm, I'm still in on Trevor Lawrence. Um, you know, he's, he's pretty, a guy that causes a lot of arguments online and in person, but I think that the problem with Trevor Lawrence and why people, um, are avoiding him so much is their failure to reset expectations for him. I don't think that Trevor Lawrence is that generational prospect, that perennial QB1 overall, but I definitely think he has potential for top five seasons and people are just ready to wash their hands of him because they didn't meet those initial expectations. So I've had my, some of my best moves in dynasty have been when I've reset those expectations

Starting point is 00:30:26 and gotten guys that while not necessarily hit the ceiling that I thought they would, you know, still produced and able to get at a value. Last season, he had the third best accuracy rate and the second highest average depth of target with quarterbacks that started at least 10 games. And before his injury last season, so it was weeks one through eight, he had the second most pass plays of 20 or more yards, second best completion percentage on those types of passes. And coming off back to back 4,000 yard seasons,

Starting point is 00:30:55 despite the injuries, despite the struggles, and we talked about it earlier, the rushing for some of these quarterbacks doesn't get talked about enough. Trevor Lawrence averages about 320 rushing yards per season, about four rushing touchdowns. That's roughly four points a game. So whether it's a four-point passing touchdown, it's about a touchdown per game, or if it's six, then okay, you can consider it. It negates about two interceptions per game. So that added value over a full season really, it may seem like it's not that much,

Starting point is 00:31:28 but it makes a big difference. And the biggest thing is Liam Cohen coming over from Tampa Bay. There's been some debate whether it was Cohen or whether it was Dave Canales that quote unquote fixed Baker Mayfield. But regardless, under Cohen last season, the Bucks went from points per game

Starting point is 00:31:47 ranked in the NFL 18th all the way up to fourth, and Baker threw for a career-high 41 yards. If he's able to do that with Baker Mayfield, give me a shot. I want to see what he can do with Trevor Lawrence and has one of the best young wide receivers in Brian Thomas Jr. And then they added some guy named Travis Hunter as well. So I just think that for what he cost plus the potential ceiling, although I don't think he's that, like I said, that generational prospect that top, you know, I don't think he's got QB one overall seasons in them, but I definitely think he's got some potential for top five. I'm a little bit scared that if I try to go trade for Trevor Lawrence, I'm going to get punched in the mouth because I've spent four years making fun of all the people who still believed in Trevor Lawrence. But I do think like an important distinction, you were talking

Starting point is 00:32:32 about making up for passing touchdowns and I'd referenced how few touchdowns Justin Fields has thrown in his NFL career. Justin Fields career passing touchdown rate is 15% higher than Trevor Lawrence's 4% to 3.4%. And that it doesn't make any sense because when you watch Lawrence play, he looks, he passes the eye test probably better than somebody like Jalen Hurts, who's already been to a couple of Super Bowls and won a Super Bowl MVP. But he gets down into the red zone and things just go wrong. It's a common problem for first year quarterbacks. It looked like he was making a little improvement in his second year when he got up to 4.3%. And then it's just, it's just struggled again.

Starting point is 00:33:17 For the most part, I would like to think somebody that good, man, he's got a good touchdown cut season coming. And when it does, that's when we're getting the Trevor Lawrence breakout. At the same time, after 2000 career passes, it gets a little more difficult for me to believe that he's going to fix that problem. And it really does limit the upside. If he can't become even a league average touchdown rate guy that the, the, the obvious thing that makes this all even more interesting is the fact that he has Brian Thomas Jr.

Starting point is 00:33:49 Who was such a great surprise as a rookie last year. And then they spent the number two overall pick on the best player in college football last year, Travis Hunter. And so the receiving core is so good. The offensive court or the, the, the, the offensive system is so good. And the eye test is so good that I am hopeful. He's my QB 19 in dynasty. I think I might be a little higher or a little lower, but I am hopeful that we finally get the Trevor Lawrence season that everyone's been waiting so long for.

Starting point is 00:34:20 And one thing I will say too, sorry I didn didn't mean to interrupt you. But one thing I'll add as well is I think you have to just cancel out the urban Meyer years, but in all seriousness, he's on his fourth head coach in five years. So I think that that at least gives a little bit of an excuse as to why he hasn't taken that leap, that step forward. Um, so many years into his career already. Definitely it's obviously on him as well. You can't explain it all the way with that, but that's something that you at least have to take into consideration. 100%. That's another joke that I like to make is that it's, you never have to worry about finding an excuse for Trevor Lawrence, because there's always several lined up. It was

Starting point is 00:35:04 somebody else's or injury, or I think there was weather one year that was the problem. Uh, my two buys, honestly, we've probably already talked about them enough. Brock Purdy is QB 13 by current ADP. I have him at QB eight. That pretty much tells you all you need to know. I expect more past attempts. I think he's going to be one of the most efficient passives in the NFL, just like he's been since he entered the league. And I'm not so

Starting point is 00:35:28 sure that the weapons he has this year are going to be that much worse than what he had last year when everybody was hurt. And then my second one was Justin Fields. I know super flex league specter into this, but he's current currently QB 22 by ADP behind Michael Pinnix, behind JJ McCarthy, behind Cam Ward, five spots behind Trevor Lawrence. And that type of upside at that low of cost go by Justin Fields. Jay, who are we selling? We talked about it earlier. Bo Nix is really a sell for me and I just think that we may have seen his best fantasy season already. I think he's going to be a solid quarterback, solid NFL quarterback years to come, but I just I don't see the upside that a lot of people do. I know that he's getting comparisons to Drew Brees because of Sean Payton and the stature and things like that. But we're talking about his completion percentage. It was just average last season.

Starting point is 00:36:29 Didn't have that great of a touchdown interception ratio. His rushing was just, like I said, it wasn't efficient. It was more of the quantity versus quality. So I'm really, I'm looking to sell high on Bo Nix. My cell, it brings me no pleasure to say this because Jared Goff has been very good. I am higher than consensus on Jared Goff. I think he's a steal and redraft where he's going at like QB 18.

Starting point is 00:36:59 According to ADP, I don't know how among Ross St. Brown and Sam Laporta and Jamison Williams and Jameer Gibbs are all going to be so good and Jared Goss QB 18 by redraft ADP But on the other hand how in the world is a 30 year old quarterback? Who's QB 18 by redraft ADP currently QB 14 by dynasty ADP that does not make any sense to me a high-end QB2 should either be someone who's young and going to perform in that range or older, but we expect him to be a lot better than that range.

Starting point is 00:37:34 And right now we've got, he's not old yet, but he is old enough to where he doesn't get a discount for his, or he doesn't get a boost for his age. And nobody seems to think that he still has the same upside. I am more concerned than most about the Ben Johnson loss. I'm probably more concerned than most about the rag now loss. I still think he's not a bad bet at ADP and redraft, but at QB 14 in dynasty, four spots ahead of DAC, who we were just talking about ahead of all those young guys, if I was in a one QB league, I just flat out rather have Justin Fields

Starting point is 00:38:07 than Jared Goff and you can get Justin Fields plus for Jared Goff, according to rankings in ADP and I'd certainly rather have Brock Purdy who's five years younger and I think probably going to perform about the same. So Jared Goff, unfortunately, is my cell. Do you want to defend Goff at all? No, not really. You made really good points. Just the guy. I like to more than the guys that you talked about. I think nail on the head. I think super flex.

Starting point is 00:38:35 I think he's a solid QB too. And, you know, he's somebody who if you can have both of those guys on your team, like a Fields and a Goff in a QB one league, that's the perfect parent. Yes. And I didn't even take both those guys in a super flex league, as long as I have a third guy like that's, that's a little bit more reliable than Fields. Joey writes in the chat. So happy to see two of his favorite people.

Starting point is 00:38:59 Congrats on the new gig, Jay. We all absolutely agree with that. And I'm just so happy that Joey still calls me one of his favorite people after I said something that wasn't very nice on Alfredo's podcast. Not even sure if that's out yet. So I might've also ruined that. Man, am I a terrible friend.

Starting point is 00:39:16 Let's talk about some of our favorite deep sleepers and waiver wire ads. I know in super flex leagues, it's really hard to find any QB cheap. It's definitely difficult to find any QB on the waiver wire. I've got three guys here. You have a few more that you can give after mine. So Joe Flacco, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins. I still think that Daniel Jones is most likely going to start week one for the Colts. I don't know that either one of these quarterbacks can hold onto the job for 17 games, but he's been a mid QB two at times, even a high end QB two at times.

Starting point is 00:39:50 Right now he's not even a top 30 quarterback in dynasty rankings. I understand why, but if you want to add another potential starter to your quarterback room for a very low cost. Who still has the potential. I mean, what did we think about Sam Darnold at one point or Gino Smith at one point or even Baker Mayfield at one point? Maybe somebody could fix Daniel Jones. The Giants certainly could not. Flacco, man, I just, I just sit here every day wishing that Joe Flacco would be the starter for 17 games for the Cleveland

Starting point is 00:40:25 Browns. I don't know. And I should probably just have a have a tweet stream about this and just show it on the show one day. But I don't know if people realize over the last three years when Joe Flacco has gotten a chance to start just how good the results have been. I know it's not good for winning football games, but it's great for us. And I don't care if the Browns win football games. They shouldn't even want to win football games. They should just want to have some entertaining things happen and make Jerry Judy and David the joke who feel good about themselves.

Starting point is 00:40:56 Cedric Tillman to start Joe Flacco, please. Kirk cousins. Maybe, maybe the saints will decide they would like to have a starting quarterback on their roster this year. Maybe somebody will get hurt and Kirk Cousins will get a chance to start. Dirt, dirt cheap. And wasn't quite as bad as people act like he was last year.

Starting point is 00:41:14 Who are your deeper sleepers? When I sent you the message through Twitter DMs, I put Daniel Jones and Cy. And then a lot of dots after that. I'm with you on Daniel Jones. I've had him as a post type sleeper. I think that, like you said, he wasn't as bad as, well, he was as bad, but the situation was as bad as well. And what I mean is, his completion percentage over the past three seasons under pressure, 45%, 52%, 53%. When he's not under pressure, 69%, 76%, 71%. So, you know, not amazing, but you know, a pretty big gap. And he's going from one of the worst offensive lines to one of the best offensive lines. The past few years, the Giants of quarterbacks have faced second and third most pressure.

Starting point is 00:42:09 The Colts are 17th and 15th, so he's going to have more time. And even with Malik neighbors last season as a grouping, this is probably the most talent that Daniel Jones has been surrounded by from a pass catching perspective, Pittman Pierce, AD Mitchell, Josh Downs, and then you throw in Tyler Warren, it's got Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, Daniel Jones does have a top 10 fantasy season under his belt. I do I think he's going to be anywhere near top 10? No. But like Matt in chat, he said, but I believe in Daniel Jones as

Starting point is 00:42:44 a top 15 QB this year. There I said it. That's a lot of bravery, Matt. And I want to applaud you for your bravery. Mike says he has a team with Anthony Richardson. He traded the 20, the 20, 25, 302 for Daniel Jones. Exactly what I'm talking about. I am not saying that we necessarily need to pay a lot

Starting point is 00:43:06 for Daniel Jones. I wouldn't give up a second, but if you can go get him for 302, absolutely love that. We have some questions in the chat and I'm gonna go in reverse order because I know that Jeff is disappointed in my ranking of Baker Mayfield and he wants to know how can a guy

Starting point is 00:43:23 who's thrown more touchdowns than anybody the last two years not be a top five fantasy QB? And it's a very good question. Some of it is that I don't really buy the 41 touchdowns that he threw last year. He had a 7.2% pass touchdown rate. Those, that percentage is one of the least stable metrics moving year to year for a fantasy quarterback. The year before in Tampa, 4.9%, that's slightly above average. His career mark, 5%, that's slightly above average.

Starting point is 00:44:06 So if you look at what Baker Mayfield did last year and just say, okay, what if he would have had a 5% past touchdown rate? Like he always has in the past, you're losing 12 touchdowns. Now he's at 29. Now he's the borderline QB one that he's been when he's been good and he's been much worse when he's been good. And he's been much worse when he's been bad. Also, I don't think it's right to be so excited about the players that are getting Ben Johnson and Liam Cohen and act like you don't care

Starting point is 00:44:36 about the players that are losing Ben Johnson and Liam Cohen. So I've got a tiny bit of concern there. I'm excited about Emeka Ibuka, but I don't know about Chris Godwin's ankle, and Mike Evans is 32. And so I'm just a little bit concerned that we're going to get a three-year stretch of Baker Mayfield being really good. Yeah, I think you have that in your head. No, no notes there. Alyssa had a question about a very, very exciting quarterback prospect that we haven't talked about at all

Starting point is 00:45:06 because we don't know if he's ever going to get the chance to start. It's Jalen Milrow, who could be maybe the best rushing quarterback in the NFL if he gets a chance. He also may not get a chance. And so if she has Jalen Milrow, wants to know would you trade Jalen Milrow for Tyrone Tracy and Austin Eckler in a 12 team super flex league, assuming we're a little weak at running back and probably have a lot of depth at quarterback, but we don't know that for sure. How do you feel about Milrow?

Starting point is 00:45:36 Do you think he ever gets a chance? And would you be willing to make a trade like this? I would prefer to hang on to Milrow. And part of it has to do with the return here. I'm not sold on Tracy I know he was better than anticipated last season, but he wasn't that efficient a lot of it came on volume for him Now they drafted scat about With Eckler he is you know, he's getting up there in age. He's a great guy He's a great fantasy analyst, but I'm not somebody I'm really looking to add to my team in

Starting point is 00:46:06 fantasy, especially in dynasty and noro, like we've, you know, he's one of those that if he gets on the field under center as the starter, he'll be worth starting simply because of his rushing upside. And I, you know, I was in on same Donald last year because of the system. I don't know if I buy same Donald long-term. I think there's a very real possibility that Muro gets some starts this season. It kind of feels like you bought a $1 lottery ticket that has a million dollar jackpot. And you know, the odds aren't very good, but somebody's just offered you a quarter and a nickel

Starting point is 00:46:43 for that one, that ticket you just spent a dollar on. And I'm quarter and a nickel for that one You just spent a dollar on and I'm not I'm not giving it up for that if there's somebody in your league That's intoxicated by his upside Make them pay more than this is what I would say. Otherwise, let's just let's hold on to that lottery ticket You never know. Sometimes people win on those right? Surely, we had a question here 12 team super flex I have Baker Mayfield Drake May Justin Fields JJ McCarthy who would you be looking to move to upgrade the roster elsewhere or add future picks honestly I know you're asking who to move I would I would hang on to all these guys if I had to move, I would hang on to all these guys. If I had to pick one, I would probably say Baker just because of what Heath went on about and hit every note that I would

Starting point is 00:47:30 have hit. And the other guys have the upside that Baker doesn't, although we've got some in the chat saying top five, dynasty quarterback. There's still the youth with May Fields and McCarthy, the upsides there. If outside of Baker, maybe JJ McCarthy, because I feel like you're gonna be able to get the best return for him if you wanna hang on to Baker. I would honestly, unless you have a dire need at another position, I would keep all four guys

Starting point is 00:47:58 because there's, what if Justin Fields gets benched? Then you're down to three quarterbacks. What if one of these guys gets hurt? Down to three quarterbacks. There's so many things that can go wrong, especially in Superflex, 12-team Superflex. I would hang on to all four. I think you put two options down there at the bottom,

Starting point is 00:48:16 either to upgrade the roster elsewhere or add future picks. And what I'd like to do in this situation is clarify first off, where's my team and which of those things makes more sense? If you're a true contender and you're trying to go win the league right now and you want to add to another position, then my answer would probably be JJ McCarthy. Although looking at recent ADP, Drake May is currently QB8. And so he's the guy you're going to get the most for.

Starting point is 00:48:47 What I said about JJ McCarthy and May with that kind of ADP. The problem with trading Baker, unless you're, if you're going the rebuilding route, then I think Baker is the obvious answer. But the problem with trading Baker, if you're a contender is as much as I love Justin Fields, there's questions. Especially

Starting point is 00:49:06 about past this year, as much as I'm excited about JJ McCarthy, there's probably even more questions for this year and no certainty beyond that. And Drake May, we haven't actually seen be a top 12 quarterback yet. So if I'm contending, there's no way I'm trading Baker. If I'm rebuilding, I'm certainly trading Baker. But I like your idea too. Like you, you could just hold on to all these four guys. And if one of them has a spike week, that might be the week to move them. Or if somebody gets hurt, then you won't want to move any of them. Jordan, another 12 team super flex league has to be the most common league choice, at least for people who listen to this podcast. Where do you rank this

Starting point is 00:49:45 year's top three QBs with Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence? And I think I can answer for Jay, the question is behind them. Yes, way behind them. Way behind them. Caleb Williams is closer than, as much as I love Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams is much closer to those guys. But yeah, not even really. Well, I took this as the top three rookies from this class. So yes, Caleb's a tier and a half behind the top three overall quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence is not in the same state as the top three quarterbacks. If we're talking about the rookies, I would say Caleb Williams is not in the same state

Starting point is 00:50:26 as Cam Ward. Trevor Lawrence, I think that is one of those things. I have Ward just ahead. Some people have Lawrence just ahead. ADP has yours. Or a George Alon thing right there, I think. Right. That one's a little bit questionable.

Starting point is 00:50:39 None of the other rookies are in the same neighborhood as Trevor Lawrence. So that's where we're at on those guys. A couple more questions. Would you consider, Jay would not, I'm going to tell you right now, would you consider tearing down from the homes to Nick's for a second round pick? Not even remotely close. Would you do it for a 2026 first? I know you can't project where, you know, right. Where the picks are going to be, but if it looks like it's going to be a, a top half of the draft, I would,

Starting point is 00:51:09 I would strongly consider that. Yes. Right. And the problem is that most people, most people that are trading a first to upgrade from Nix to Mahomes are probably not in a rebuild. So, so no, I, I wouldn't do that either. I'd rather hold on to Mahomes. How do you measure the future value of older quarterbacks? How many more years do you assume for Alan? And I you know, when I first read this question, I heard older quarterbacks I certainly didn't think we were going to talk about Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes

Starting point is 00:51:39 But Jay, I mean I'm rapidly turning into an older fantasy analyst and I didn't think that was going to happen. Patrick Mahomes will be 29, so will Josh Allen at the start of this season. Oh, where did time go? I'm a client. I'm drafting the sons of guys that I drafted when I was winning my first J.P. chips. So I will just say this is a place where I know there's some disagreement from others. I feel more certain that we're going to get or hopeful, certain hopeful seven to 10 more years of top 12 production from Patrick Mahomes than I do Josh Allen. He was a little better last year with Josh Allen protection and he is

Starting point is 00:52:26 a superhero. So maybe he can just always play football like he does and never get hurt. But I'm a little bit worried that the history of guys who run as much as Josh Allen and run in the manner that Josh Allen runs past 30 is not quite as good. But how do you, how do you view it? Do you think there's just like, we got another decade of Allen and Mahomes and we shouldn't even think about it? I do. Yeah. I think we do with both of them, but out of the two, I feel the most confident about Mahomes. I'm not only because of that, but you know, look at the coaching situation and Patrick Mahomes has shown he needs to be the guy that airs it out. He can be that guy. If he needs to dial it back, like he has the past couple of seasons airs it out, he can be that guy. If he needs to dial it back like he has the past couple of seasons with a better defense,

Starting point is 00:53:06 he can be that guy and still be on that QB one, no borderline QB one high and QB two. I know he's had some down seasons, but I'm not fading Patrick Mahomes, not even remotely close and right. You know, Sean McDermott does still kind of concern me in Buffalo and you know, they've, they've flown through, uh, offensive coordinator, offensive coordinators, not for positive reasons. They're, they're definitely more questions in Buffalo than people want to admit. We had one more question from the chat. Joey has a trade question. Would you trade a lunch date with Joey in New York city at Katz deli for anything in this world? Absolutely not.

Starting point is 00:53:45 Absolutely. Have that one day in two weeks with Joey, we're going to New York City for the Flex League drafts. And we've had that date set for almost a full year now. So I'm doing the Flex League this year. I'm in the online super flex version. I couldn't make it up to New York City because I'm just traveling all over America right now. But it's a lot of fun. I would love to do it. I will do it in the future. Jay, thank you so much for helping us walk through

Starting point is 00:54:13 the state of the quarterback position. Just real quick before we go, tell everybody about QB List and what it is and how they can be involved. Yeah. So I apologize about those technical difficulties at the beginning, got those resolved. But yeah, I just joined QB List about a month ago. I'm the lead analyst over there. It's the sister site to Pitcher List. If you're familiar with Nick Pollock and his amazing work, looking to take the model, the amazing site that he's built

Starting point is 00:54:40 and bring that over to QB List. And we've got some awesome talent. I've got two series that have just dropped, I've referenced both of them, Flag Plants, pretty much the guys in each position that I want, and post type sleepers, Daniel Jones. And it made me throw up in my mouth a little bit,

Starting point is 00:54:56 but I did add him to that list. We've got a lot of pre-season content coming out through July. And then as of, I believe, we're tentatively targeting August 13th for a full-on draft guide. And it's not your traditional rankings and that it's going to have a little bit more of how I play, why I do the things that I do, some more theory behind it. And we've got one of the really cool things about QB Lists is we've got an excellent team

Starting point is 00:55:24 that goes through and we have a What We Sawists is we've got an excellent team that goes through and we have a what we saw series. And basically we have a team that literally watches every single game, not just box score reading and goes through and gives you a summary of from a fantasy perspective of each fantasy viable player. So it's not just, you know, touching on the highlights. It's somebody who watched the game and gives you a fantasy spin on it. So it's, I know, Peter, at least for me,

Starting point is 00:55:48 I'm sure it is for you. It's impossible to watch every single game, no matter how many TVs you have. To have that set of eyes on each game that really puts them the time to watch what's going on is extremely helpful. Awesome, awesome stuff, Jay. I will be out next week, but we will

Starting point is 00:56:06 be returning in August and we've got Sigmund Blum coming back. I can't wait for that. That's going to be awesome. We've got some really exciting stuff. Last, last thing that I want to tell you guys who are still here in the chat, you guys are awesome and you're part of what makes this show go. I always thank you for the questions, but I want to say send an email to fftdynasty at paramount.com. Tell me about how long you've been listening to FFT dynasties. Maybe one of your favorite moments. Definitely include your name from the YouTube chat here. I'm going to find a way to get you guys, at least one of you, hopefully more in the FFT dynasty show league. So send me that email,

Starting point is 00:56:46 tell me some stories about year one of FFT dynasty or something like that, and we'll get a couple of you. We'll talk to you in a week. Paramount podcasts.

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Fantasy Football Today - State of the Quarterback Position + Best Vets For Contenders, Favorite Buys & Sells (Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

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