Fantasy Football Today - 🚨 STEFON DIGGS TRADED MID-EPISODE! Plus, 2024 Breakouts! (04/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 3, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts We learned late in the show that Stefon Dig...gs was traded to the Houston Texans (49:35). We analyze that trade for a while and debate Josh Allen vs. C.J. Stroud, Diggs vs. Nico Collins and more. But most of our show is about 2024 breakouts! We've got league winners for you to draft, and you may even have to reach for them. The shared breakouts for Dave, Jamey and Heath (3:10) is a fairly big list which includes Anthony Richardson, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens and Kyle Pitts. We'll tell you why these guys could be great but also what could go wrong for them ... News and notes (15:00) and an alarming stat about quarterbacks drafted in the first round (18:00). Then we've got Jamey's breakouts (22:40) including Dalton Kincaid and the aforementioned young wide receivers ... Dave's breakouts list (34:50) has Zack Moss and Zamir White, Chris Olave and two sophomore WRs we haven't talked about. What is Olave capable of in his third season? Can he score touchdowns? Then after a Diggs detour, we finish with Heath's breakouts (57:40) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:41 Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. League winners, breakouts. Yes. What's up? Welcome everybody. It is Wednesday, April 3rd. Sleepers, when you weeks, breakouts, when you leagues. TM, welcome to the show. And we're talking about exciting players that could absolutely crush it this year. However you want to define a sleeper and a breakout, breakouts tend to be more high-end players.
Starting point is 00:02:26 So we'll be talking about, as Jamie said a few weeks ago, I think, receivers who are getting big quarterback upgrades. Garrett Wilson, Drake London, George Pickens. They're going to be on the list. Kyle Pitts also fits that description, except he's obviously not a wide receiver. Bijan Robinson was good last year. We're expecting him to be elite this year. So I have a tough role on today's show.
Starting point is 00:02:44 I basically just have to play devil's advocate the entire time. You don't have to. No, we can't just agree on anything. You really don't. We can have a breakout show where you don't. Or you could force us to be the people who play devil's advocate. Could do that. But I've already prepared my devil's advocate. Oh, good.
Starting point is 00:03:00 Here's the list. Based on the list you guys gave me of your breakouts, here are the ones that I think are the shared breakouts that i thought everyone agreed on i didn't think you were gonna say shared there but glad you did uh i don't know i don't know i don't get that part okay you thought he's gonna say poop why would i say that uh all right anyway um, Anthony Richardson. Yeah, breakout, right? By the way, I realized yesterday, Adam does not know how to check his mentions on Twitter or X,
Starting point is 00:03:29 whatever you're calling it. I do not. God, that was so frustrating. I was sitting, Jamie was texting me, and I was so mad at him. I was just like, just, you know the scene in Dumb and Dumber where he's trying to get the number, and he's lighting himself on fire?
Starting point is 00:03:46 And he goes, for God's sake, just give me the damn number. That's what was happening with Jamie. He was sending me these cryptic texts that I was supposed to figure out. So we got a pretty bad reply to Adam's podcast post from Monday Show from a handle from a movie. And I was just replied to him. I go, why'd you piss off the character? I listed other characters from the same movie.
Starting point is 00:04:11 And Adam's reply to me was, why are you, why are you sending me? I'm not sure I get the references here. And then Jamie says, Twitter. And I said, ha I'm stumped.
Starting point is 00:04:20 Sorry. And he said, check your tweets. I said, I just did. And he wrote, and, and I wrote, I just did. And he wrote and and I wrote, I just have no idea what you're talking about. He wouldn't just just send me the damn link to the tweet already. Anyway, let's get let's get on to someone again.
Starting point is 00:04:34 Had an absolutely ridiculous response to to my tweet of yesterday of Monday's podcast was ridiculous. And his name was a character from a movie and Jamie really threw me off. And he's throwing me off here. So shared breakouts. Anthony Richardson, Bijan Robinson, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, George Pickens, Kyle Pitts.
Starting point is 00:04:58 Yeah? Yeah. I think there was one Dave had too that I agree with. Zemir White. I agree with that one too. Yeah, I didn't put everybody's on my list, but I agree with most of them. I don't see any reason to disagree at all. With Anthony Richardson, Bijan Robinson, Garrett Wilson, Drake Lund, and George Pickens, Kyle Pitts, I mean, these are going to be popular industry-wide breakouts?
Starting point is 00:05:24 You think so? Most of them. Yeah, I think until the draft, it's always a little challenging to find the true breakouts because there's going to be some situations where these rookies impact it one way or the other, where there's some negative scenarios for these guys. So how do we gain an advantage here if everyone has them on their breakouts list?
Starting point is 00:05:46 Like, do you reach for these guys or just make sure you try to get two of them? Like, what do you do, Dave? If they win new leagues, then yes, you reach for them. Right. If you've got the conviction that these guys are going to put up career years and just absolutely annihilate other players that are drafted around them, then you take them. And you might take them half a round to a full round sooner than everybody else would a little bit different in the case of Garrett Wilson. You might just put him two or three spots higher than consensus in your
Starting point is 00:06:14 room. And Bijan, it'd be hard to take him around. Right. Like do you, if you, if you really believe in Bijan, you might take him ahead of McCaffrey.
Starting point is 00:06:22 It sounds silly right now, but the argument could be made. I don't know if I'd necessarily buy into it, but it could be made. And I guess that's what the point of this all is. It's just, what are the arguments that we can make? Every single person we've named so far is definitely a candidate to break out. It's just, what's the argument that would make you have that conviction to take them around earlier than ADP? I think there's three guys you named that will get drafted maybe a little bit sooner than they should. Drake London is one, Kyle Pitts is another, and George Pickens is the third.
Starting point is 00:06:53 I think all those guys have a potential to be drafted a little bit too soon. So convince me that Garrett Wilson going at the beginning of the second round is not too soon. Devontae Adams. What he was able to accomplish with non-Zach Wilson quarterbacks. Two years ago. Wasn't really that good. You know? I mean...
Starting point is 00:07:19 As a rookie? 17 fantasy points a game? Again, remember what I'm doing here is i'm playing devils but you don't have to no i do because i want to bring up the counterpoint right i mean we got to have a we got to have a show we got to have some some discussion here um i always brought this up you know in that in that sense right like that you just said what 17 points per game that's what he averaged as a rookie without zach wilson for a good portion of that though it was 21 points per game right but remember they were throwing like 45 times a game or something like that and he actually averaged more yards per target with
Starting point is 00:07:52 zach wilson than without zach wilson that season it wasn't like the quarterback play was so good they just threw the ball so much they're not going to do that with rogers i think the point is it wasn't like the quarterback play was so good. The non-Zack Wilson quarterbacks have still mostly been not very good quarterbacks. Yeah. I know. He's got Mike Williams now. Actually, a big concern, and this will change the discussion.
Starting point is 00:08:17 A big concern for me, I don't know if it's a big concern for you, is the Jets seem to want another wide receiver. If they take one, what do they have, the 10th pick? If they take one in the first round, would that change things for Garrett Wilson? But I guess I would say with Garrett Wilson and Drake London, they've had bad situations, but also they haven't been great, especially London. If they had been great, then they wouldn't be as good of breakout candidates because they would have already broken out.
Starting point is 00:08:43 Sure, but they're being drafted. Garrett Wilson is being drafted as if he has been great, then they wouldn't be as good of breakout candidates because they would have already broken out. Sure, but they're being drafted. You know, Garrett Wilson is being drafted as if he has been great. Now, let me just say again, I would take him early in the second round. I think it makes sense. But I'm just pointing out, like, you look at a guy like A.J. Brown. A.J. Brown was playing on a team that barely threw the ball, and he was still absolutely unbelievable. You could say the same in some seasons, I would say, for DJ Moore, at least in terms of yards.
Starting point is 00:09:08 It wasn't touchdowns, but he was still putting up a huge yardage. Wilson in London, and London especially, have not done that yet. So I guess that is my forced counterpoint here. Okay, to counter your counterpoint, Nico Collins. Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:09:26 He's the best example. And not the same prospect as these guys. So these guys have the ability to, if they live up to their draft stock and what they were coming out of college, to be better than what Nico Collins was, who got a quarterback upgrade after two years of toiling with bad quarterback play and looked like a star. And so these guys have the ability to be stars. Not only did he look like a star, he had the opportunity to look like a star. And so these guys have the ability to be stars.
Starting point is 00:09:45 Not only did he look like a star, he had the opportunity to play like a star. And that's just the other factor here. Garrett Wilson, terrible quarterback play last year, still had 10 targets per game. If he's getting 10 targets per game from Aaron Rodgers, he's going to be very good. Oh, could be QB one.
Starting point is 00:10:02 He's getting 170 targets. Oh, wide receiver one. Yeah, sorry. I doubt he throws for 40 touchdowns. He's getting 170 targets. Wide receiver one. Yeah, sorry. I doubt he throws for 40 touchdowns. I think it's tougher. It's easier to say all this stuff about London because he's had... Has he had a worse situation than Garrett Wilson?
Starting point is 00:10:16 I mean, I don't know, but he's been worse. Yeah, I would say he has. Is it equally bad quarterback play or close, but 150 fewer passes per season? Right. Like that's also a play calling problem. That's the team trying to rally around its run game and be conservative and almost hide the quarterbacks. It's what we saw from the Jets a lot last year, too.
Starting point is 00:10:39 And still Garrett Wilson had that average. Last year was 6.9 targets per game for Drake London. So if the targets per game goes up for him and the quality of target goes up for him, of course, his numbers are going to go up and he'll have a career best fantasy point per game average. And it's been terrible so far. He's going to, he should be very good. But also, yes, it's easier to make those arguments against Drake London. And that's why he's not being drafted in the second round. But you missed our Joe Pisapia episode. Joe said he thinks he should be drafted in the second round.
Starting point is 00:11:12 I'm drafted in the second round. Jamie's there now at the 2-3 turn. And honestly, it makes sense because, as we discussed, when I took Chris Olave early in the second round in a draft, once you get past Garrett Wilson and A.J. Brown and Puka Nakua, I don't know that there's a slam dunk wide receiver to go next. I think wide receiver nine. There's like this big vacuum early in the second round
Starting point is 00:11:36 after those guys I mentioned come off the board of which wide receiver goes there. And I actually do think Drake London has a pretty compelling case there, Heath. So no, right now he's not being taken the second round. But some people are considering it, I guess, at least two people that I respect a lot. And do you think that the industry could get there and ADP could get there for London?
Starting point is 00:11:58 I suppose it could, especially if it seems more and more like Kyle Pitts is not a focal point of the offense and it's Bijon and Drake London and we just hear more and more of that steam and then Cousins looks good at training camp and he might creep into that end of round two early, like where Devontae Smith and Jalen Waddle and Tee Higgins were all sitting last year. wrap it up here with one question about all of our shared breakouts here. Anthony Richardson, give me some big-name quarterbacks you would draft Richardson ahead of. Herbert. Trevor Lawrence.
Starting point is 00:12:36 Tua. Kyler. Purdy. Prescott. No. All the old guys. Cousins, Stafford. Prescott and No. All the old guys. Cousins, Stafford. Prescott and four points for passing touchdowns. All right.
Starting point is 00:12:50 B. John Robinson is RB blank. Three. That's the one. Three. Garrett Wilson. Did you say that with a sigh, Heath? Like you're resigned to the fact that he's three? No.
Starting point is 00:13:03 I think I actually have Kyron projected just a little bit higher, but I would draft B. John higher because I think he's a lot better player. But Kyron could... I mean, if Kyron's RB3, it won't surprise me. I'm just... I'm banking on the Falcons
Starting point is 00:13:18 being smarter with their play calling this year. Matt Weber's asking who's RB2. That would be Brees Hall. Brees Hall. Garrett Wilson or A.J. Brown? Brown. Brown, but I go back and forth with this one. They're back to back. Drake London or the
Starting point is 00:13:36 old guys who showed decline last year? Stefan Diggs, Devontae Adams. London. Old. As of now old guys George Pickens or DK Metcalf Pickens
Starting point is 00:13:51 I have Metcalf one spot ahead of George Pickens and Kyle Pitts is tight end blank seven for now I also have met seven so that's behind Kincaid seven for now. I also haven't met seven, seven. So that's behind Kincaid. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:14:10 That's ahead of Kincaid for me. Who's six for you, Heath Kittle. Kittle. Okay. Who's five for you, Heath Ingram there. Okay. Who's five for you,
Starting point is 00:14:18 Dave? Five for me is Kincaid. Kittle is six. Pits is seventh. Ingram is literally one spot behind him in the overall rankings at eight. And I, I have it that way because I think you can get Ingram after pits in your fantasy drafts.
Starting point is 00:14:32 And it wouldn't surprise me in the least of Ingram was better than pits in full PPR. All right. Listen, NFL draft time. It is April. We're about four weeks away. Not even.
Starting point is 00:14:43 So no, we're like three weeks away. All right. We're about four weeks away. Not even. We're like three weeks away. All right. We're getting there. Check out FFT Dynasty. Heath is bringing on great guests who have broken down the film and are giving us terrific insights on every position here. All the rookies that are coming into the draft
Starting point is 00:14:59 and who's going to make big fantasy impacts in their first year. Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. You can follow it, listen to it, anywhere you're listening to this podcast. And episodes are on Tuesdays and Fridays. You can also watch it live or on demand at youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. We're going to take a break. We got some news. I got a rookie quarterback stat for you,
Starting point is 00:15:20 and then we'll get into all of the breakouts including Devon Achan Tank Dell Dalton Kincaid Zamir White Zach Moss all after this whether in the game or in life the right coverage can make all the difference Securian Canada gives you that coverage
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Starting point is 00:16:26 good part and get groceries meals and more delivered right to your door on skip and unfortunately we have to start with the sad news and our condolences to the family and the friends of vante davis former cornerback for several nfl teams and a really great college player and great NFL cornerback. Vontae Davis passed away at the age of 35, so sorry to hear it. The Chiefs made a couple of signings. They re-signed Clyde Edwards-Hilaire to a one-year deal, and they signed Carson Wentz.
Starting point is 00:16:57 He's going to get a chance to compete in training camp. Carson Wentz is going to be their backup. For what? Clyde. Is Clyde a handcuff and we don't really talk about handcuffing pacheco but uh clyde maybe you know it's interesting that they signed him after they kicked the tires on jk dobbins and they haven't done the same thing with jerek mckinnon yet so i think that's an unfinished room for kansas city but yeah i think it means something that they brought CEH back.
Starting point is 00:17:27 I mean, he was basically handcuffed when Pacheco had the neck injury last year, so I don't see why he wouldn't be the handcuff now. And I wonder if this just means that Dobbins, who's now toured two teams in the AFC West, is still unsigned. Yeah. Yeah, I don't love that. Baltimore head coach John harbaugh said that the offense will look different in 2024 what do you take that to mean didn't he say something like
Starting point is 00:17:51 that before 2023 i mean obviously with the play caller change and at times it did look different i i don't i'm not i can give my conjecture but i don't know exactly what that means i mean i i would anticipate first off there's there's some offensive line changes that you know he could just be referencing sure um there's you know a change in the receiving core you know no beckham we've we've talked about this a lot you know do they run some more two tight end sets and you know isaiah likely and mark andrews are on the field more together to open things up from a different perspective. But this is a team I think also you've got to keep an eye on
Starting point is 00:18:28 for drafting a wide receiver as well. I mean, this is a group that has had one underwhelming first-round pick in Rashad Bateman. And Zay Flowers, who knows exactly what he'll become. But I wouldn't be surprised if they come away with a receiver or two in the NFL draft at some point. Not a first-round pick, but somewhere in the middle of the draft, they come out with a couple of guys. They've done that before.
Starting point is 00:18:49 I hope it means they're going to play both their tight ends and both their running backs at the same time. Keaton Mitchell, Derrick Henry, Likely, and Mark Andrews all in the field with Lamar Jackson at the same time. One wide receiver sets uh well i think there's this this perception out there that the ravens threw the ball more last year with a new offensive coordinator they were last in the nfl in pass rate and they had the second fewest pass attempts in football only san francisco which had three fewer was tennessee and baltimore had 494 pass attempts san francisco had 491 so they i don't know really what changed. They were great, but they still were very run heavy. And then the Colts re-signed safety Julian Blackman, who was a pretty
Starting point is 00:19:34 important player for them last year. There was an article on CBSSports.com that looked at the 46 quarterbacks who have been selected in the first round over the last 15 years. And they gave incompletes to everyone from last year. So Young, Stroud, even Stroud. I'm pretty sure he got an incomplete. But they graded them. Home runs would include Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes. I didn't agree with all of the grades.
Starting point is 00:20:06 Solid results. I think Justin Herbert was in solid result. Tua was in solid result. Mixed result. Mixed result was like Daniel Jones was in mixed result. I would have given him a miss. Who else? Where's Trevor Lawrence?
Starting point is 00:20:23 I think solid result. I think. And then, oh, Deshaun Watson was in mixed result, I believe. And I would have given him a solid result or a home run. I mean, he was so good with Houston. But, you know, look, we can quibble over the results. Who did this? One of our writers. He kept saying we.
Starting point is 00:20:44 I forgot who it was. So I don't know if it was a team effort, but it was on our website. Anyway, they looked at 46 quarterbacks. They gave home run, solid result, mixed result, incomplete, and miss. And these are first-round quarterbacks? First-round quarterbacks. There were only three first-round quarterbacks last year. Yeah, okay, right.
Starting point is 00:21:02 So they all got— Last 15 years, Dave. They all got incomplete. I don't know who the other one was. Who was the fourth to get an incomplete? I'm not sure. Who was from two years ago? Maybe it was someone from two years ago.
Starting point is 00:21:12 I am looking this up right now. It was Cody Benjamin. Okay. Okay. He's the guy who wrote it. He's not the quarterback. What? He's the guy who wrote the article.
Starting point is 00:21:22 He's not the quarterback who got the incomplete. I got to give the big takeaway. 50%. 50% of the first round quarterbacks were misses. So... Yes. Much bigger than any other... The Jordan Love.
Starting point is 00:21:36 Oh, he may have been incomplete. Is that what you said? Yes. Okay, yeah. That makes sense. Yeah, okay. Jordan Love. That makes sense.
Starting point is 00:21:44 So, you know, you're going to get maybe five quarterbacks in the first round. You could get four in the top five. Last year was pretty damn good, I'd have to say. I mean, even if it was just two out of three, depending on how you view Richardson. But they're not all going to be good, that's for sure. No, especially if there's going to be five of them taken. There might only be two that are good.
Starting point is 00:22:06 Yeah, and then you've got to wonder, like, if you're in a dynasty league and you're doing a rookie draft, even if it's super flex, you know, Caleb Williams seems like he's in his own level, but should the next three picks be wide receivers? No. Depends on what you need. Exactly. But obviously,
Starting point is 00:22:26 it's like anything. I mean, you're going to take chances on the position that matters the most. You know, you could probably do this with every position.
Starting point is 00:22:35 You know, how many misses have there been? Jalen Rager went one spot ahead of Justin Jefferson. I bet you, yeah, but I bet you,
Starting point is 00:22:41 well, I don't know, because there was that stretch where we had like really bad first round wide receivers, right? uh that's what i'm saying yeah you know i i just feel like i feel like quarterback has more misses than receiver as would be my guess especially um 10 yeah i mean it's probably a similar percentage would be my guess you know if you if you really broke it down there's obviously going to be more receivers taking than quarterbacks. So I would think it changes a little bit,
Starting point is 00:23:12 but I mean, when you're doing these drafts, you have to take these chances. I mean, last year there were four, JSN, Quinton Johnston, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison. Yeah, but notably, none of them were drafted in the top 20. What was the first one? 20, 19, something like that? You're not talking about the three guys
Starting point is 00:23:31 who are going to get drafted in the top 10-ish this year. I'm just wondering if those guys are safer. They probably are safer. Are they worth drafting over Drake May, for example, or whoever goes to New England? Well, over whoever goes to New England,
Starting point is 00:23:46 I would say yes. Yeah. All right. But that's the way the draft will unfold, though. Let's hope Drake May's in Minnesota. Food for thought. All right, back to the breakouts. Jamie's list is Anthony Richardson,
Starting point is 00:23:59 Devon Achan, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, George Pickens, Dalton Kincaid, and Kyle Pitts. We didn't really talk a lot about Pickens here. I do love four games that he played without Deontay Johnson. He had a 28.9% target share. So he was terrific. Anything you want to add about George Pickens?
Starting point is 00:24:24 Again, Jamie's breakouts are Richardson, A-Chan, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, George Pickens, Kincaid, and Pitts. Anything you want to add about Pickens? I mean, you just see the potential. You know, again, we've spent a lot of time on this the last few weeks with free agency and the addition of Russell Wilson. And so you can sit here and say Arthur Smith, he was bad for Drake London and how that all unfolded, and I get it.
Starting point is 00:24:46 But as a play caller, he was good for A.J. Brown. And so that's when he had a competent quarterback in Ryan Tannehill. And so I would say that he's a competent quarterback in Russell Wilson. You could debate where Russell Wilson is at this point in his career, but he's certainly going to be able to, I think, bring out the best of George Pickens by comparison to what he had over the last two seasons. And so now there's an opportunity for him. He was the target leader for the Steelers last year, but part of that was Deontay Johnson missing time targets per game. I would assume favored Johnson,
Starting point is 00:25:12 but Pickens now has the opportunity to take a step forward year three in an offense that will hopefully be a little bit more pass happy. I don't expect it to be dramatically more pass happy, but a little bit more pass happy than what don't expect it to be dramatically more pass happy, but a little bit more pass happy than what we saw last year. Okay. And Kincaid. So yeah, go ahead. You know, you're looking at a Buffalo receiving core right now. That's clearly changing, you know, so Gabe Davis is gone and the addition of Curtis Samuel is, is a different type of player.
Starting point is 00:25:46 And so Kincaid with the first round investment, I got to go back and find this. Somebody tweeted it and I'm sorry for not giving credit, but there was a stretch of games last year where somebody compared Kincaid and Laporta and basically the catches in the yards were the same, it was just touchdowns. And so, you know, for a guy that has this pedigree
Starting point is 00:26:03 in this opportunity with this quarterback, I think what we're going to see is, you know, for a guy that has this pedigree in this opportunity with this quarterback, I think what we're going to see is, you know, the best of Kincaid this year. And what we saw from him last year was when somebody was missing, whether it was Dawson Knox or Gabe Davis, Knox in the middle of the season and Davis at the end of the year is when his numbers popped and his targets popped. And so both those opportunities are there. Plus you have a disgruntled aging Stefan Diggs. And so Sean McDermott already kind of said, I think where they're, where they're leaning, you know, they may come out of the draft with a wide receiver, but you know, we talked about the receiving group and he threw the two tight ends in there. And so I think they're going to be big, you know,
Starting point is 00:26:35 focal points of, of this passing attack with Kincaid, obviously the better pass catcher of the two. So very excited about him. Like Dave said, I agree wholeheartedly. He's, he's the fifth tight end coming into the season. Wouldn't surprise me if he's better than the two other young guys that are going to be drafted ahead of him in Laporta and McBride. I don't expect that to be the case because I love what Laporta showed last year. I think he's going to get better. Love what McBride showed last year as well. That's why I haven't ranked the way I do.
Starting point is 00:26:58 But obviously based on where this guy was expected to produce and how he's sort of shown flashes of it, the best is yet to come. If you want to pass the devil horns over here, Adam, I can, I can play devil's advocate against both Pickens and Kincaid. Yeah, go for it. All right. Let's start with Kincaid in the last seven games with Joe Brady. He averaged 5.7 targets per game and under 10 PPR points per game by a lot. It was eight PPR points per game. You really have to drill down into those games without Dawson Knox to get the best out of Dalton Kincaid. 13.8 PPR points per game, 7.4 targets per game. That's from weeks eight through 12 when Dawson Knox did not play.
Starting point is 00:27:37 There was a bye week in there as well. I'm encouraged by Kincaid making a second-year jump if there's no Gabe Davis and if the Bills don't add somebody I I'm encouraged by Kincaid making a second year jump. If there's no Gabe Davis and if the bills don't add somebody with a top 70 pick, let's call it something like that. I don't know how badly the bills are going to try and replace Gabe Davis as far as a perimeter receiver, or if they're going to just try and get by with Curtis Samuel and that slot role that he had before with Joe Brady and Khalil Shakir playing outside. And they just might say, okay, we've got Josh Allen.
Starting point is 00:28:09 Let him do his thing, throwing the football. They also were a little bit more run heavy with Joe Brady calling plays, taking a little bit of work away. That's the devil's advocate case against Kincaid is that he just doesn't get back to that seven target per game level. That's what you're looking for from a fantasy tight end. I'm, I love the talent. I love love the second year factor, like I said. So I am going to bank on that for now with Dalton Kincaid, but that is the devil's advocate argument against him. With Pickens, look, so much of his fantasy production did come at the end of the year, 18.6 PPR points per game in his final three with Mason Rudolph. That includes a game where he had zero fantasy points. So just on fire in those games
Starting point is 00:28:50 in the last seven games after Matt Canada got sent packing by the Steelers, 13.1 PPR points per game. We just got done talking about how bad Arthur Smith's offense was for Drake London. Drake London was the number one receiver for the Atlanta Falcons. It is clear for now, and it's probably not going to change in the draft, that Pickens is going to be the number one wide receiver for the Steelers. And even though it's a better quarterback situation than what Arthur Smith had in Atlanta, it's still not great. And so I love Pickens.
Starting point is 00:29:20 I believe I won a lunch bet with Pickens and Deontay Johnson last year that I need to cash in on one of these days. But I am a little bit nervous about Pickens being overdrafted, being taken too close to a ceiling. We talk about that all the time. And just his deficiencies as far as route running goes and not being a complete wide receiver. Also holding them back just a little bit from being one of these wide receivers
Starting point is 00:29:46 that finishes north of 15 PPR points per game. I'll just go back to one thing real quick about Arthur Smith with the Falcons and just from the conversation I had with him last summer in regard to Kyle Pitts. When he had a veteran quarterback that he trusted in Matt Ryan, they threw the ball much more. And so he has, I think, a guy that he's going to trust, I would hope, two guys I would hope that he trusts more so than he had in Atlanta, and the Steelers had hopefully last year as well,
Starting point is 00:30:10 whether it's going to be Russell Wilson the majority of the season or Justin Fields. And so whether that leads to them being upper half of pass attempts, I'd be surprised because I don't think that's what he wants to do. But again, maybe closer to the middle, that's I think something that could be realistic. And let's not forget, they were 22nd to Falcons and pass attempts last year we cannot no ever forget that that's not too bad gross passing yards per game which means there were actually 10 teams that
Starting point is 00:30:34 threw for fewer yards than the atlanta falcons they weren't as miserable as you thought uh no i mean yeah i also okay anyway i'm i will say just as far as the George Pickens upside argument, and this is my favorite new George Pickens stat, he was the fifth player in his age 22 season to average at least 10 yards per target on more than 100 targets. He is a stud in terms of range. The first four yeah randy moss rob gronkowski josh gordon and odell beckham yeah those guys stink like if if russell wilson can be
Starting point is 00:31:17 just average pickens could be oh i've heard this from you before master oh i've heard he wasn't below okay and i again i don't think rus't think Russell Wilson was as bad as everybody else does last year. Oh, no. I'm sorry. Oh, DJ Moore. Okay. Yes. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:33 Yeah. No. That's fair. I think Russell Wilson has a little better track record than Baker Mayfield did going into that situation. But, yeah. Fingers crossed. Fingers crossed. Also, Russ Feller's a pretty good guy
Starting point is 00:31:45 behind him, too. Right. As a thrower? I mean, he just unlocked DJ Moore. A lot better than Kenny Pickett. I think he can unlock George Pickens, too.
Starting point is 00:31:53 Yeah. Maybe. I think the fact that he... I think the fact that DJ Moore had such a good season is kind of making Justin Fields a little overrated. There's not really
Starting point is 00:32:04 a shred of evidence to say that Justin Fields is a good passer. His numbers are absolutely horrible. He doesn't have to be a good passer. Well, maybe not, but if they're not going to throw the ball much, he has to do something good. I mean, Pickens obviously is the kind of guy who can do a lot by himself, right? He can make big plays, but he could be very inconsistent. That could be a problem.
Starting point is 00:32:26 In the chat, sometimes I try to pay attention to the chat takes my focus away from the show so that's why i ignore it a lot i just made a hundred dollar saint jude donation bet with one of our uh audience members one of our viewers jeff he is insisting that nico collins will be better than jamar chase this year uh he well he was going on about how Nico is better than Jamar Chase. And then he said, why don't they pay attention to the chat? Blah, blah, blah. So I said, okay, Jamar Chase is better than Nico Collins. So he's pretty serious about this.
Starting point is 00:32:56 We just made a bet. Losers given $100 to St. Jude. Remind us, you know, hold me to that. Are there any parameters, injuries, or anything like that? Yeah, I think we got to talk about Acer stats and all that. I said PPR fantasy points per game, and I would say you only count games where they play 50% or more of the snaps. Did he ask you to put the money in escrow after the line-shaving debacle?
Starting point is 00:33:17 No. Oh, that's true. What line-shaving? Oh, I thought you meant the points. You said you would do something, and then you didn't do it. I will definitely do that, but I feel pretty good. That was one of the more disappointing things you've ever done. When you came back with a piece of paper with three lines on it and taped it to your head.
Starting point is 00:33:34 I love that it's called a line shaving debacle. Right, exactly. The first thought is always like, uh-oh, something really terrible happening in sports. Nope, we're talking about Adam Azar's hair. I do want to save time for Dave and Heath's breakouts, obviously, but let me ask you this about Pitts and Kincaid. Are they good enough breakout candidates where we actually shouldn't be taking a top four tight end unless it's just silly value? I think you're looking at the value of where these guys will probably be drafted, you know, like, um, you know, Dave referenced Ingram going after pits. I think that's probably
Starting point is 00:34:12 realistic because the pits hype will start to spiral out of control again, if he makes some plays in camp and everything that I'm sure Kirk cousins and Raheem Morris will say, they're already releasing, you know, hype videos for the Falcon. So they're really excited about the changes in Atlanta, you know, after they started their Falcons. So they're really excited about the changes in Atlanta, you know, after they started their offseason program this week. So wouldn't surprise me if Pitts maybe gets a little bit too high from an ADP perspective. But I think if the value is right on those two guys after the top four tight ends, and really Andrews is going to be, I think, the one that swings it,
Starting point is 00:34:37 maybe McBride if he falls behind Andrews. But if you're talking about round four, round five for those guys, and you can get those other two guys and Kincaid and Pitts a round or two later, two rounds later, I would say, is probably safe. If they're a round difference, I think you probably want to take a chance on the top four guys because they just feel safer. All right, cool. Let's take a break. We got Dave's breakouts, Zach Moss, Zamir White, and Chris Olave.
Starting point is 00:35:02 Definitely need to talk about him. Jaden Reed, Jackson Smith and Jigba. Dave saw Jamie's list, agreed with a lot of it, so he gave me five different names. Much appreciated there. And then we'll get to Heath's breakouts as well. And we'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful
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Starting point is 00:36:22 But Zach Moss and Zamir White are two running backs for Dave that are breakout candidates. And Zach Moss went late round seven in this draft I'm looking at that we did a few weeks ago. And Zamir White went three picks later. So what do you think about that? Are they that close, Zach Moss and Zamir White? They are for now.
Starting point is 00:36:41 And things can obviously change, especially in Las Vegas. All it takes is one draft pick within the first hundred picks of a running back by the Raiders, and Zemir White goes off this list with the quickness. But I do think Zach Moss has a chance to exceed his numbers from last year. Last year was a career best for Zach Moss, almost 1,000 total yards and seven touchdowns. I think that was the number for Moss in 2022 or 23, rather, excuse me. And we've already talked as soon as Moss went to Cincinnati and Joe Mixon was out of there. We talked about how Zach Moss, a better version of
Starting point is 00:37:17 Joe Mixon, better yards per carry, more explosive, better yards after contact per carry. Like all the things that you look for from a running back, those metrics were good. And so all he has to do is fend off Chase Brown taking over more than the third down roll. And he'll be in the exact same spot that Joe Mixon has been in for the last four years. And Mixon has averaged at least 15 PPR points per game in that spot. I think Moss could do almost exactly that, like right around 15 PPR points per game in that spot. I think Moss could do almost exactly that,
Starting point is 00:37:46 like right around 15 PPR points, maybe closer to 14, if he has that role. And that's the if is, well, there's two ifs. There's the, can he stay healthy if, and can he keep that role and make sure that Chase Brown doesn't take too much away. But the situation's good. The offensive line should be good enough.
Starting point is 00:38:03 And the receivers, assuming T Higgins stays, will keep the safeties playing back. It just all makes sense for Zach Moss to have his best year ever. I am a lot more excited right now today about, like, I agree with Dave that if the Raiders take a running back with the top 100 pick, then Zemir White takes a big hit. But right now I'm quite a bit more excited about zamir white than i am zach moss just because there's so much less competition um and he was with this coaching staff towards the end of the year last year when josh jacobs went down and they just fed him and i think this is a team that would love to run the ball 30 or 35 times a game and let their defense wins that win them games so zamir white stays healthy and they don't use a top 100 pick, he might be in the top five in the NFL in rush attempts this year. Yeah, I agree.
Starting point is 00:38:48 I don't know if he'll get that high in rush attempts, but top 10 I think is certainly within the range of possibilities. But obviously, like you said, he was fed quite a bit, so I guess there is the potential for that. But Moss at his cost right now is fine. I'm so worried about him just being a flash in the pan of the five games that we saw last year. And you go back to his time in Buffalo when he was given this opportunity. He was basically the guy that the Bills tried to make their starter.
Starting point is 00:39:14 And every time he flopped, whether it was due to injury or poor play, and it was on what was supposed to be a great offense. And it was the same type of system. We talked about this quite a bit about running out of shotgun and how much this is a similar system to what he was in in Buffalo and in Indianapolis. And so, again, round seven is hard to overlook what he can become. And it could just be a five-game sample size of him staying healthy and being productive and doing all those things before either he gets hurt or Chase Brown maybe takes over. It could be Travion Williams or they may still add somebody as well because none of you know, at least long-term deals. Chase Brown's not his rookie deal. But I think from the standpoint of who has more upside for me, it's Amir White. And Moss is somebody that unless it's probably after round six, I will be avoiding just because I really fear the potential
Starting point is 00:39:58 of him flopping in this opportunity. And so if let's just say that you're in a draft and you end up with Zach Moss and you have that fear of him flopping, Chase Brown went in round nine in our most recent full PPR mock. You could take him in around eight. If you want to, you could lock up the Bengals backfield with back-to-back picks after 80th overall. That doesn't sound so bad.
Starting point is 00:40:18 I probably would rather have somebody in the Moss pick and then just take Chase Brown. You could do that too. So who was picked around Moss? Zamir White. So as of now, Zamir White and Chase Brown would be your preference. 100%.
Starting point is 00:40:31 Yeah, so... I don't hate it. Yeah, Moss, I just, I will point out he also had four games at the end of the 2022 season where he did fine. He didn't score a ton of fantasy points because he didn't score except one of them. And that does kind of
Starting point is 00:40:47 if you look at his career, he doesn't catch a lot of passes. I hope that changes. I also think that the situation in Indianapolis was much better for rushing efficiency than it is in Cincinnati. Well, why? He wasn't really with Richardson that much.
Starting point is 00:41:04 He wasn't even with him in week one He wasn't even with him in week one. He wasn't with him in week one. I just don't think that the Bengals have a good run-blocking offensive line or system. No, but they face light boxes. This was one of the biggest knocks on Joe Mixon. He had one of the most advantageous rushing situations. Always a light box. One of the highest light box rates. And he was terrible. He just couldn't do anything. They didn't have an offensive rushing situations, always a light box, one of the highest light box rates.
Starting point is 00:41:25 And he was terrible. He just couldn't do anything. They didn't have an offensive line that could block a light box. I mean, did the Colts have like some great offensive line? I don't know that they used to. Last year, Moss's in the box rate was 14.8%. Mixon's was 15.2%. Both of those were very low.
Starting point is 00:41:44 So I feel like it's lower than Mixon's. Yeah. By I mean like it's... The Maltz's was lower than Mixon's. Yeah, by... I mean... He was a lot better. Wasn't he better than Mixon? I mean, isn't everyone better than Mixon? But that's not the reason why. It's not because of the... Both of them were below three yards per carry against eight in the box, too. Alright, if you want, let's just see. I don't know
Starting point is 00:41:59 the stats here. So run block, win rate, the Bengals, according to ESPN, were ninth best. colts were 11th so it looks like they had fairly similar situations now pff does not grade the colts the bangles offensive line well right i say by that one there's there's a lot of different offensive line measurements right now and they don't align very well yeah i'm very suspicious same same okay uh let's go to the rest of dave's breakouts list chris olave jayden reed and jsn olave obviously gonna get drafted much earlier do you think chris olave justifies a second round pick dave he almost does by default because he's
Starting point is 00:42:41 one of these young receivers with huge upside and if you just drill down into the 11 games last year, he had at least seven targets. He actually had at least eight targets in those games. It's 17.1 PPR points per game. It could be just as simple as saying, okay, new Orleans doesn't make a big splash in the receiving core. They don't try and lean on the run as much as they did last year. Maybe they don't have taste some Hill and that doesn't harpoon half the offense.
Starting point is 00:43:08 And Derek Carr stays healthy. Olave could end up having his best year in his third year. And to me, it's just a guy who's got supreme talent, continuing to get opportunities and putting it all together with his quarterback. Heath, I don't think you're on this one. No, and I like the talent. together with his quarterback. Heath, I don't think you're on this one. No. And I like the talent. It's just with London and with Garrett Wilson,
Starting point is 00:43:30 it's very easy to look at the situations and see, look, these are elite wide receivers and look how much better the situation got for them. We're finally going to get elite production. With Chris Olave, it seems like it's the exact same situation he's been in his entire career, which is fine. I think he's a, he's a low end number two.
Starting point is 00:43:47 And he, I am kind of surprised that, that Dave likes him because he's, he was really hit or miss last year. Like he had a lot of games that you mentioned the games where he had more than seven targets and he was awesome in those games, but he also had a lot of games with like 45 yards. Um,
Starting point is 00:44:03 and so I, I think you're going to continue to have those in this mediocre Saints offense. See, that's the one thing, though, that I'm curious about is the addition of Clint Kubiak going to make things that much better for everybody. And clearly a lot falls on Derek Carr, and we know how he feels about Derek Carr.
Starting point is 00:44:20 So we'll see how things go there in terms of the quarterback play. But I do think a change in, in play caller matters here. And, and what we've seen from these San Francisco guys, and that's where Kubiak is coming from. And obviously he has his father's pedigree as well, is the, the ability to get these guys out in space and, and make plays after the catch yards after catch and Olave now, you know, for what it's worth, I know Michael Thomas has missed a ton of time, but this, this is a receiving core. That's missing guys that, you know, I'll it's worth, I know Michael Thomas has missed a ton of time, but this is a receiving core that's missing guys.
Starting point is 00:44:53 You know, I'll go back to what Dennis Allen said at the owners meetings in the takeaway we had in that they're looking to add a pass catcher, not necessarily a wide receiver. So does that mean a tight end? Does that mean another pass catching running back or does it mean another wide receiver? And so right now they're starting wide receivers. You know, the top three guys are Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Cedric Wilson, you know, so it's a, it's a pretty clear path to him dominating targets if he plays the way he's capable of playing. So I do think that there is a chance for a guy going into year three, you know, who's shown some, some very impressive flashes to take that step forward. But you are, again, asking Derek Carr at this point in his career to do that. And that's really, I think, the only drawback, but, you know, you look at where these San Francisco guys have gone, you know, and again,
Starting point is 00:45:27 I'll reference Nico Collins. Year three, he goes to a situation where they just open up the offense. And hopefully the same thing happens with, you know, Kubiak's system. So I'm excited about Olave. I do think, you know, and we spent some time talking about it. It feels like you're settling for him in round two because of what he's done, you know, and it's people like us that continue to prop him up to whatever degree, you know, based on talent or opportunity or all these things. But at some point, if it does click, you're going to be pretty thrilled about what he
Starting point is 00:45:50 can become. And I think this is the year that's going to happen. Yeah. By the way, I just want to comment on something someone wrote in the comments that they like Jamie's breakout list a little better than Dave's. I just want to point out again, Dave,ave no dave he gave different names he said he agreed with a lot of what was on jamie's list jamie responded first so dave was just giving some kind of deeper names i i just i just gave a list that included jamie's guys so i didn't didn't did
Starting point is 00:46:16 not care right and the whole point of this is just to come up with candidates anyway and so it's not like i'm saying oh gary wilson's gonna suck he's not a breakout it's it's not like I'm saying, oh, Garrett Wilson's going to suck. He's not a breakout. It's not that. It's just these are talking points of players that could have a career. I can't believe you like Zach Moss more than B. John Robinson. I know. I'm an idiot. And for anybody that wants more of this, I'm writing the
Starting point is 00:46:37 first version of Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts this week. Sleepers are on the site already. Breakouts will be on by the end of the day today and Busts tomorrow. Olave, I just want to point something out with Olave. He has been, among wide receivers, 16th in yards per game, both of his NFL seasons. So that's with, you know, one year, his rookie year, a really bad – I'm just going to say, just based on total numbers,
Starting point is 00:47:01 they didn't throw a lot. They threw for hardly any yards. He was 16th in yards per game. Last year, they threw a lot more. They weren't as efficient, but they threw a lot more. They didn't throw a lot. They threw for hardly any yards. He was 16th in yards per game. Last year, they threw a lot more. They weren't as efficient, but they threw a lot more. They had more yards. He was 16th in yards per game.
Starting point is 00:47:11 That's better than Garrett Wilson's been. That's better than Drake London's been. But at least it tells you that he's got a path to being a top 15 receiver at worst, but he just doesn't score touchdowns. And so far, it reminds me a lot of Terry McLaurin. Chris Olave does not get red zone targets. He does not get green zone targets.
Starting point is 00:47:31 I don't really know how to project that, but so far through two seasons, he has something like 20 red zone targets in two seasons. That's terrible. So that could hopefully change. And again, going back to the Carter situation, it's hard to expect a big change in the touchdown numbers playing with a quarterback who's only thrown
Starting point is 00:47:49 more than 28 touchdown passes once in his career. You're asking him to have 40% of his teams receiving touchdowns. We talked about this with DJ Moore when he used to never score more than four. Well, the team never threw more than 20. It's more difficult to have. We could see Aaron Rodgers throw 35 touchdown passes even if he's just mediocre in terms of everything else um it's hard to expect that from the Saints
Starting point is 00:48:11 yeah just like eight touchdowns would be really good for a lot but he has nine in two seasons uh but you know you brought up something early on which I think makes sense you know when you get past really the A.J. Brown, Puka, Wilson receiving, you know, line, you know, you want, you want to call that's where the cutoff starts. Then it's that, that mixed bag of guys, you know, with the two older receivers, which I think will be the only two, I guess you could throw Mike Evans in there. It's hard to discount what he's done. So, you know, Evans digs and, and Adams and the two 49ers guys, uh, for me, Nico Collins, I think a lot of us probably feel the same way. Um, and I, and I'll put, I'll put London in there, but that's kind of where a lot of you should belong. You know, he, he, he sort of goes in that next group, you know, not necessarily
Starting point is 00:48:52 should be in the, in the first group, which is where he was being drafted last year. And that was a mistake. Okay. And Jaden Reed and JSN Dave are a couple of breakout candidates for you. Who do you like better? JSN is kind of one of those shrug your shoulders guys and say, well, he can't be any worse than he was last year going into his second season in Seattle. Say that 10 times fast. I'm hoping that he can take a lot of targets away from Lockett, a few away from DK, be a factor in the red zone, and be finally worth the ADP because it's been nothing but projection ever since Seattle drafted him Reed is someone that I fell in love with during the draft process his last eight games plenty of touchdowns still 17.4 PPR points per game his targets cratered in week 18 and then through the playoffs I think he was playing hurt and overall
Starting point is 00:49:43 on the season 13.6 PPR points per game You've heard me talk about how Jordan loves was a great quarterback and, and really did well, regardless of who was on the field. I think this is his best wide receiver and read playing in the slot, not a high aid up at someone who can make plays after the catch. I think he can come back and maybe flirt with 15 PPR points per game. And we're drafting him in our drafts kind of in the same range. He's going like the ADP overall in our PPR drafts is very similar between him and Christian Kirk and George Pickens and Deandre Hopkins. And ultimately I expect most of those guys to go ahead of Jaden Reed. I love the idea of trying to get Reed as my number three receiver. And if I have to settle for him as my number two, it might make me gross out a little bit. But it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up finishing as a top 24 type of wide receiver, if not top 20. What is a good, you might know this better than I do, what's a good target per route run rate?
Starting point is 00:50:48 20% or more I think is the number. Heath might be able to speak to that better than I. I think that good that word good, I don't know. It's certainly not elite. It's certainly not really good. That might be like a baseline
Starting point is 00:51:03 for being a fantasy starter i'll go ahead and all right well let me whoa what's whoa stefan dicks has been traded to the houston texans no are you kidding me what day is it it's not april 1st no this is from Adam Schefter. Oh my gosh. I'm going to go ahead and take Tank Dell off of my breakouts list. You can remove Tank Dell from my breakouts list. And I think he's just one. He's number one tight end in fantasy right now. Oh my gosh.
Starting point is 00:51:39 I know, I know. I'm on the air. Is Josh Allen QB1 still? No, but CJ Stroud. no but cj going straight up he was on my breakouts list yes yes easiest cj stroud case ever and now you can say goodbye to nico collins being as good as he was last year so what what's your guess on draft pick compensation here? One second. Let me see what they have. They just got something from the Vikings.
Starting point is 00:52:12 They got a ton of picks from Minnesota in that deal. By the way, I think the bet, the Nico Collins versus Jamar Chase bet is going to have to be weird. You just won. Congratulations. That was the fact. Just send the money in now, Jeff.
Starting point is 00:52:27 Houston has two second-round picks, 42 and 59. One third-round pick, that's 86. There's no way they gave up a first for him. Future first. Oh, I don't know if they gave up a future first. I'll predict one of the twos and one of the fours. Yeah, I would say. I'm going to go less than that, under.
Starting point is 00:52:44 Yeah, I would say under too. But'm going to go less than that, under. Yeah, I would say under too, yeah. But you kind of saw this coming, right? Just the way that the season ended and Diggs just kind of – I thought I could see this coming. Man, I had such good stats on Jaden Reed. I think we're just going to have to skip that, huh? All right, guys. I think I lost you for a second there.
Starting point is 00:53:07 And I think I lost you permanently. Speak. There we go. Adam, we're still recording. You got me. Okay. Sorry.
Starting point is 00:53:11 You guys got me now. We good. Uh, sorry about that. All right. Let's, um, let's talk about this. Who's the best,
Starting point is 00:53:17 who's the best Texans wide receiver right now. And do any of them belong in the second round? I'm going to say digs and no, I'll say Nico and no, I'll say Nico and no to how early are we talking? Top 30 pick. Wow. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:53:35 maybe, maybe. Yeah. For Nico or for Dick, whoever. I mean, everybody will take Nico ahead of digs and I'm, I don't think everybody will.
Starting point is 00:53:45 I think we'll still see ADP favor Diggs. Because it's the name you know. I'll go Nico 25 to 30, Diggs 31 to 36. That's probably a good range. Do you have the projection, Jet Heath? And what about Tank Dell? What about Tank Dell? Oh, man, this crushes him.
Starting point is 00:54:02 Great value. This is your fault, by by the way you with the stupid april fool's joke what how does this have anything oh yeah it was about tank town that's right uh okay so cj stroud or cj stroud or josh allen cj stroud or josh allen oh man alan was fine last year when Diggs was brutal. Doesn't matter. It's still a threat at Diggs. Their receiving core is brutal right now.
Starting point is 00:54:29 No, Khalil Shakir. Dalton Kincaid, man. Obviously, they're going to draft a wide receiver. I mean, there's no chance they're not drafting a wide receiver. Of course. Or they're training for T. Higgins. Oh, yeah. That could happen, too.
Starting point is 00:54:41 They're going to run the ball 550 times. Tyler Boyd probably signing in Buffalo. CJ Stroud or Josh Allen right now? Allen. Allen. You can't get too carried away. Yeah, probably Allen. Can you put Stroud ahead of Dak?
Starting point is 00:54:58 Easy. I don't know. I had him ahead of Dak anyway. I didn't. I'm taking over Burrow. That was. I'm taking him over Burrow. That was my next question. Yeah, Burrow. Lamar Jack.
Starting point is 00:55:09 Stroud is now QB4. Wow. So that's ahead of... Four? Five. Sorry, five. Five, okay. Me, oh my.
Starting point is 00:55:19 Heath, CJ Stroud was one of your breakouts. Yeah, like I said, I mean, with this receiving core, how could he not be? Two second-round picks from 2025. Oh, wow. A 2025 second is what they got? Oh, I'm sorry. In exchange for a package of picks, including a second round from 2025. So that means the best pick is the second-round pick in 2025?
Starting point is 00:55:41 Oh, here it is. Bills received a 2025 second second round pick from Minnesota. So whatever trade that was from probably the Diggs trade, I guess. Texans receive Stefan Diggs, a 2024 sixth round pick and a 2025 fifth round pick. So he just went for a second round pick. Slightly less. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:56:00 For next year. I wonder if you don't trade great receivers for that return. So I wonder if there's a consensus, at least. What did Andre Hopkins go for? Or AJ Brown? Well, Brown went for a first, but, and, and he had to be paid. So that's not even in the same stratosphere. It's also factoring in Diggs contract too. So you's not even in the same stratosphere. This also is factoring in Diggs' contract too.
Starting point is 00:56:27 So you have to give the trade his contract. Yeah. By the way, the second round pick that they're getting was the one that Houston just acquired from Minnesota in the trade that gave Minnesota Houston's first round pick a couple weeks ago. No, it's an awesome trade for Houston. And my guess is that they're just going to use,
Starting point is 00:56:49 they'll probably use digs all over the place. They'll keep Nico on the perimeter and they'll use Tank Dell. They'll line up Tank Dell all over the place, but try and take shots with him. Man, I was so excited about Noah Brown. Is this good or bad for Joe Mixon? It's both.
Starting point is 00:57:07 Yeah, it's good. It's good because I don't know how defenses are going to stack that box ever. We just got done talking about how bad he was, 2.3 yards per carry against eight in the box last year. But it's bad because now there's a lot of mouths to feed. And I don't know if Diggs is as good as he once was. His fans probably are. Remember when this division was going to be Jacksonville's
Starting point is 00:57:28 for the next five years? Oh, boy. I don't really. This is a lot to digest here. Would you take Mike Evans or a Texans receiver? Evans. Yeah, Evans. I'll take two Texans receiver? Evans. Yeah, Evans. I'll take two Texans receivers.
Starting point is 00:57:51 Okay. And would you take Tank Dell or JSN Jaden Reed? Dell. Dell. I think I'll land on Dell over Reed. Reed last year was bad when Watson was healthy.
Starting point is 00:58:05 That's a problem. Yeah, I never got to go through my target per route run rate. But for Jaden Reed, it was when Christian Watson was out, weeks one through three, 27.4% target. You know what? I'll tell you just what he was on pace for in terms of targets in 17 games. That might be easier for people. Weeks one through three without Watson on pace for 113 targets.
Starting point is 00:58:28 Weeks 4 through 13 with Watson on pace for 83 targets. Weeks 14 through 18, he missed one of those games on pace for 128 targets. Absolutely massive difference when Watson was in the playing versus not playing. That's Jaden Reed. I'm not sure if there's anything else you guys want to say about the Stephon Diggs trade. We didn't talk about James Cook. But it's obviously the Bills roster is so incomplete right now.
Starting point is 00:58:55 So a lot to be determined there. The CJ Stroud just went from incomplete to on the quarterback rating scale for CBS. And Heath, I honestly don't think we need to talk about your breakouts. Oh, you could, Brees Hall. You want to talk about him? Because your breakouts are Stroud, Richardson,
Starting point is 00:59:15 Brees Hall, Bijan. Brees Hall should have been in the group breakouts. We all have Brees Hall as a breakout. Except wasn't he like the number two running back in fantasy last year? I think he broke out last year. He may not have been that high per game, but he's pretty cool. I don't he like the number two running back in fantasy last year? I think he broke out last year. He may not have been that high per game, but he's pretty cool. I don't think he was that high.
Starting point is 00:59:31 Overall, Brees Hall was number two overall and number six per game. I could buy it, though. 17 points per game. He could crush that. Oh, I think he could. He is by far the most likely back
Starting point is 00:59:46 not named Christian McCaffrey to be the number one running back in fantasy this year. Sure. I took him in a draft that I think we may have done it on the air or we talked about it on the air. I took him second overall, I think. People didn't agree with that. They wanted the receivers
Starting point is 01:00:01 there. Do you take the receivers or do you take B receivers or do you take breeze hall hall in what format i'm sorry ppr league hall or which receiver any receiver your number one receiver oh um so this is something i struggled with because i did that in one of the drafts and um it uh zach posted it on on instagram i was very surprised with all the reaction uh i think the receivers make more sense just from the standpoint of what happens in round two because you can't get a very safe and receiver that has as much upside as any of your favorite top four guys whereas in round two you might be able to get
Starting point is 01:00:43 saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, James Cook, Isaiah Pacheco, Rashad White, all those guys. I just think it's a better draft strategy. So while Breesol has a higher ceiling than those guys,
Starting point is 01:00:53 I think the pairing is better of going with those elite wide receivers and the running back around too. If you want to go to the hero RB route. All right, we're going to end the show here. Dave hopped off to do some HQ. Keith and I are going to do FFT in five. We'll talk about the Diggs trade there.
Starting point is 01:01:07 Jamie's going to do something, I'm sure. And we will talk to you tomorrow with our 2024 early busts list. And again, you can check out the content on the website as Jamie's writing up new articles. We'll talk to you soon. Bye, everybody.

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