Fantasy Football Today - Strategy Session: How You SHOULD Draft Based on Current Trends (04/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 18, 2022

Hero-RB? Zero-RB? Tight End early or late? These are all questions you need to answer before your draft, and we'll tell you about the recent trends that could influence your decisions. First, we'll give you some WR news (3:50) as A.J. Green and Sammy Watkins have signed one year deals ... Let's start with basic advice for Fantasy newbies (8:15). What would Dave and Jamey tell a first-time player? Then we'll tell you why your evaluation of the second tier of TE matters a lot (10:30), how our draft strategies have changed over the years (13:15) and how much format should influence your decisions (16:30) ... Observations and trends at each position: QB (22:22), RB (32:00), TE (44:00), WR (55:40). Find out when the best players at each position are drafted and what it should mean in 2022. Which position has the most late-round value? Within this discussion, we'll tell you what our first six picks would typically look like in a 12-team league (42:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. It is a strategy session. Strategy session. I shouldn't have started with that kind of tongue twister there. You were off for a month, so good to have you back. I was off for, yeah, about a week and a half, and shaking off the rust right now.

Adam, Dave, and Jamie. I've been playing. I've been singing in my head. Because I'm back. You know, it's like the Eminem. Guess who's back? Well, are you technically, were you technically gone since you were actually watching and participating on the stream? I only watched for like five minutes.

And yeah yeah that was it was it um i'm not sure if i believe that one do i look more tan to you do i have tan i mean we actually saw you so you don't you look less tan i think he was watching because he wanted to know just how many more likes jamie got oh from hosting compared to when you were oh yeah i destroy you don't want to know that That I don't want to know. I'm refreshed, ready to rock and roll. Crunched a lot of numbers last night to prepare for this show.

To let you know. Homework? What? I sent you all the win percentage stuff you asked for. You didn't even look at it, did you? I did. Jamie sent me his win percentage stats from the last three seasons, which is the... What's the one sentence to describe what it is?

Percentage of players who are on winning teams. Yep. No. The percentage of winning teams that the player is on. That's what I said. That's the exact opposite of what you said. Anyway, here's one thing I said. That's the exact opposite of what you said. Anyway, here's one thing I noticed.

Each of the last three years, there has been a 49ers running back in the top seven. You had Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson. Jeff Wilson, baby. And Jeff Wilson again. Jeff Wilson was seventh last year. I didn't even remember that. Mostert was fourth in 2019. Wilson had the second highest winning percentage,

so championship teams had Jeff Wilson more than almost any other running back. The reason for that is you're stashing players, too, so you're not necessarily starting these players. Right, like you wouldn't have started Wilson in week 17 in the championship, but you may have started him in weeks 15 and 16 this past year. But I thought that was interesting.

Not this past year, but I thought that was interesting. Not this past year. Yeah, 2021. Nobody was starting Jeff Wilson last year. No, I think... At the end of the year, they were. They were. Remember? He had like the... He had 14 plus PPR points weeks 15 and 16.

That's what... I couldn't... I didn't remember that. I saw him finish his seventh in win percentage. I was like, really? Jeff Wilson? What did he do? Yeah, people picked him up because he had an opportunity to play. And then he destroyed Houston because everybody destroyed Houston. And then after those two games, he went basically into a useless role. It was Atlanta and Tennessee. Why do I think it was Houston?

He was going to play Houston week 17. And then Elijah was back and Elijah went crazy. I forgot the game against Atlanta. I know, yeah. You've got to look at your own notes. But also, I just kind of looked at the last three years and each of the four positions.

Where do the top 12 quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, where do they get drafted? Where do the top six tight ends get drafted? What does it mean for us as we draft? What lessons can we learn? And there were some really interesting things, and we'll get to them in a minute.

But we have some wide receiver news, guys. A.J. Green back to the Cardinals. Sammy Watkins to the Packers. Dave? That's not the big wide receiver news for today, though. Oh, what did I miss this morning? The three guys that might hold out. Oh, yeah, that.

Well, all right. So we'll get to that in a minute. But the guys who actually signed Dave break down A.J. Green to the Cardinals and Watkins to the Packers. What you're looking at here are two wide receivers that fantasy managers have come to rely on for fantasy production that are now absolutely over the hill and will only be useful as potential bi-week replacements,

I do not recommend drafting either one of them in a typical 15-round league. What about the opportunity, I guess, for A.J. Green without Christian Kirk? Well, he wasn't that bad last year. Okay, go ahead. You can take him wasn't that bad last year. Okay, go ahead. You can take them with one of your last picks.

Same thing with Sammy. And I know that Sammy, Oh, green Bay doesn't have anybody right now and he might play in the slot or whatever. I'm just, I don't, I really don't feel good even spending late round draft capital on these

guys. Okay. And Jamie wide receiver holdouts. Yeah. I mean, it could be a problem for aj brown terry mcclurin and uh debo samuel um if they're not there obviously debo's expressed his um uh unhappiness with his social media scrubbing of the 49ers. And the whole thing about sending him death threats and racial slurs, it's the absolute stupidest thing. He's not trying to ruin your team. He's trying to better himself.

He's going to play hopefully for the 49ers. Sending messages to players is the stupidest thing you can do, so please don't do that. But hopefully these situations get rectified. You'd like to see everything settled soon. The fact that they're not with their teams in the offseason program really is meaningless for all three of those guys. I think, you know, you'd like to see, well, I guess maybe for Terry McLaurin, not so much because it's a new quarterback, but for the most part, it's still meaningless as long as they're there for training camp. I'm sure

something will get settled soon, but, you know but they're seeing all these guys get paid and they want to be part of it. So hopefully they get some level of compensation that's going to make them happy. We also have to keep an eye on Kyler Murray as well from a quarterback standpoint. So there's going to be some storylines that we'll keep an eye on heading into the start of training camp most likely, but it would be nice to have these contract situations settled sooner. I want to tell you about another way to listen to our show, by the way, if you have smart speakers.

You can say, Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast, or, hey, Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast. It is so easy if you have smart speakers to listen to Fantasy Football Today, so please do that. Here's our email of the day. The email address is fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That is the letter I. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com.

It is from Cass. Cass and I email from time to time. He is obsessed with CD-LAM. Just never stops talking about CD-LAM. So I heard Dave sold a gold leaf card for one cent. Was that again that you sold, Dave? You were here for what I told you. I forgot.

The Jacquez Rogers card. Jacquez Rogers. I have a CD-LAM autographed gold leaf card, which is one of one. What do you think I paid for it? If you ask Jamie and Heath and Dave on your show what they think, I'll donate $100 to St. Jude in honor of whoever comes closest to what I paid. It's a beautiful card signed by the best wide receiver of all time.

Okay, so you guys, $100 going to St. Jude. It's going to be in one of your names. You have to guess how much did Cass pay for his signed Gold Leaf CD Lam card. Who's going first? You want me to go first? I have no clue. I'll say $305. $306.

Okay, $305 for Dave, $306 for Jamie. I don't think it's closest without going over. 305 for Dave. 306 for Jamie. I don't think it's closest without going over. It's just closest. Cass, you let us know who won. And thank you very much for your generous donation to St. Jude. I'll read your questions all the time if you keep donating. Good stuff.

All right. Let's turn our attention to strategy now. Some basic questions for you. Dave, you can start. If you were giving a first-time fantasy football player basic fantasy drafting advice, what would it be? The first thing you have to do before you go into your draft is learn what the league rules are

and what are the roster requirements. How many wide receivers do you start? How many quarterbacks? How many points for a touchdown a passing touchdown especially yardage is there bonuses stuff like that know your league rules that's the very first thing and know how many people that you're drafting with is it a small league with eight teams or are you in a big monstrosity with 14 or 16 teams. These are all factors that you have to keep in mind before you even think about who you want to draft. So,

you know, what are your priorities should be. Jamie, first time fantasy player. Now he's, he or she has read the rules, knows how many teams, all the things that Dave just recommended.

Now it's time to draft. What do you give somebody to, you know, just to ease their anxiety a little bit. Hey, just do this. Take the best players. Um, I, you said it, I think best on, on FFT and five last night, you want to come away, I think with your first two picks, if you have one top tier running back and one top tier wide receiver, it's a good way to start, you know? So, um, obviously the

things that we say all the time, you don't have to reach for a quarterback. It's a very deep position. You can get one of the top tight ends. That's always going to be in your benefit as well. Um, but I think as long as you know, you understand that you don't have to fill out your starting lineup right away. Um, you know, that's not something you have to automatically fill. Um, you know, you can, you can take backup running backs before your third receiver. If you want to, you take your fourth receiver before your second running back, if you want

to, you know, so to. So there's obvious things like that. But I think just to make it simple, don't reach for a quarterback. Try and get a top-tier running back and wide receiver early. And if you want to dip your toe into the tight end pool with the top-tier guys, you can do that early as well. Yeah, I think I said just a nice way to start your team

just to feel good about it. Put your mind at ease a little bit. One wide receiver, one running back in some order with your first two picks. And I think as we look at that this year, what might matter is who you can get at tight end. If you want to be an early tight end guy or girl, who you can get in round three or round four.

How many of them are going to come off the board before your third pick? Dave, I don't know. That might determine if you're going to jump into the Kelsey or Andrews sweepstakes in rounds one or two, wherever they end up going, or if you're going to wait for the next tier. So the answer to that question is actually another question. It's how do you feel about the next three tight ends in that top five? How do you feel about Kyle Pitts? How do you feel about George Kittle? How do you feel about the next three tight ends in that top five? How do you

feel about Kyle Pitts? How do you feel about George Kittle? How do you feel about Darren Waller? If you like those guys and you say to yourself, all right, they're definitely going to give me a significant advantage over the other teams in my league that don't have one of the top five tight ends, then your best move is to probably let somebody take Kelsey with the top 15 pick. Andrews might get overdrafted as a top 24 to a top 30 pick. Those next three will go off the board. And I think Pitts will probably end up being third. And then I'm not sure who's going to be fourth or fifth between Kittle and Darren Waller,

but you could try and aim for one of those two, maybe as soon as early round four. And I think if you like those guys, you'll feel like you're getting an edge and you're getting good value. And without question, you're getting one of the better tight ends in fantasy. It's just whether or not they'll pay off to the upside that you're hoping for. I've been looking at fantasy football calculator average draft position. And right now they've got400 fantasy football mock drafts between April 8th and April 18th. That sounds like a lot. That's wild.

I can't believe there's been that many. But anyway, their data from the last 10 days, basically, has Kelsey at pick 15, Mark Andrews pick 21. So those two guys going in the second round. George Kittle, 308. Kyle Pitts, 401.

So eighth pick of round three for Kittle. Pitts, first pick of round four. And Darren Waller, 11th pick of round four. So you could definitely start in most... Yeah, you can start running back receiver and then get your tight end in round three or four if you so choose based on this average draft position and you can't freak out if you don't get one of those top five tight ends yeah jamie coined the term great or late

yeah right i did not adam coined the term i corrected joey that. I thought it was a Jamie thing. My mistake. So Jamie said great or late. And that's why if you just wait till round eight at the earliest, you're still going to find a good tight end who won't get you big points week to week, but we'll still give you as bonafide starter, someone that you won't have to necessarily replace within the first month of the season. Jamie,

you've been playing fantasy football for quite some time. How has your strategy changed in recent years, if at all? You know, I mentioned this last night. I think, you know, not necessarily changed per se because I try a lot of different strategies all the time. But I think just leaning more to what we saw last year of, or at least a lot last year, of the hero RB strategy or take one running back early, I think it just makes so much sense. You get your one guy that you're comfortable with,

whether it's in round one or round two, depending on where you're drafting. And then based on how receivers have become so much more safe, dominant, more three-receiver leagues, much more PPR-oriented, that it just makes more sense to lean to that position as much as you can. And getting three to four studs at that spot, as opposed to three to four running back studs, because of how much the position turns over throughout the course of the season, you end up with, I think, a roster that has more upside and also more flexibility.

Because, you know, if you get those four receivers and then, you know, maybe a fifth one along the way, you can, you know, just keep turning your roster over from the running back position as the waiver wire, you know, lends itself to, like I told you last night, you know, once we get past the first four or five weeks, you kind of know where the receiver position is headed. There will be a guy or two that pops up for a short stretch. But clearly the running back position, you get much more of those guys

because of the injuries and what happens to that position. So it's easier to play with that as opposed to trying to play with the wide receiver spot. And so I think it just lends itself to when you start your team, get one running back that you're comfortable with. You're obviously not avoiding the position, but, you know, I think just in terms of the early rounds, you know, lean heavily toward wide receiver.

I could give you some numbers that might, it's weird. I basically, like I said, I looked at who finished top 12 at each position and where they were drafted. And that doesn't necessarily mean that's how you have to draft because Elijah Mitchell, for example, didn't finish top 12, but he was obviously a great free agent pickup. And so was Jeff Wilson, as we just talked about late in the year. And if you look at the win percentage data, it seems like you're more likely to get waiver wire running backs late in the year than a guy like Amonra St. Brown.

He's kind of a rare breed, a waiver-wire wide receiver. Now, we had Prashad Perryman three years ago. We had Amonra St. Brown last year. But more common to get that running back off waivers late in the season or any other season just for a few weeks. But those guys don't usually give you full season success. I think you're kind of playing week by week at that point and hoping you can keep adding those types of players.

But I guess what I would say, I'll give you the numbers in a minute, but it is more top-heavy than you might think at running back. The guys that you draft early are typically the ones that do very well at all positions except tight end. Tight end is wackyy what we see there. But anyway, Dave, let's talk about format because it's just, man, I don't think you should go into a three receiver PPR league with the same strategy as a two receiver half PPR league.

I think it's so critical that you understand your format. We don't have to spend too much time on that because I know that people have been playing forever like, well, duh. But I think it changes things a lot. What about you? I think it changes a little bit. You might want to change your priorities

and get that third receiver sooner to have an advantage over those teams in the league that aren't really paying as close of attention to those third receivers. And they might take a tight end earlier or a quarterback earlier, three running backs earlier. I've done that before in our drafts, but I also feel really confident that I'm going to be able to find at least a replacement level wide receiver from week to week. You want to talk about a position that's deep on the waiver wire each week during the season. We can find wide receivers that can get you uh it doesn't sound like much because it isn't much but 10 ppr points but if you're just trying to get by while also speculating on some wide receivers you can

find those guys on the waiver wire pretty much every single week you think in a three receiver 12 team yeah you could? You can find a serviceable starter, but you're not going to find a guy that's going to help you win your week. Well, you never know. Sometimes those players are not picking up. It's not like we're picking up once upon a time, Alan

Lazard was this guy. And you pick him up and you say, this is going to be the guy that gets me 22 PPR points and he's going to be awesome. That's rare. Jamie, how often is the number one waiver wire claim a wide receiver in a given week of the football season? No, as I said earlier, I think once you get past the first three or four weeks, because there's always going to be the, oh, I didn't realize that this third receiver was going to have this much success or this much opportunity or this much target potential.

It's later in the season, it's the handcuff strategy. The third and fourth receiver on a team very rarely is going to get the opportunity for a three to five week stretch of consistent targets. Whereas the second running back may have that opportunity for three to five weeks because of consistent targets. Whereas the second running back may have that opportunity for three to five weeks because of an injury, you know, it, and that's, that's the theory behind it. And so it's, uh, you're right, Dave, you can certainly find a guy that's going to step in because he's been playing better, or there's a rookie that's, you know, uh, up and coming,

uh, that didn't get an opportunity early in the season. You can find those types of players, or there's, you know, we just know there's a miserable secondary coming up and that guy for that particular week could have a big opportunity but i think the difference would be is that you're finding more of those at the at a different position so you're right the number one receiver priority is typically rare because you're chasing those running backs uh more times than not or you're chasing you know this quarterback has now has a good opportunity good matchup or you know, yeah, you can absolutely find. It's not to say that the waiver wire doesn't bring wide receivers. It absolutely does. But it just doesn't bring those

starting, not starting caliber, star potential production. You don't get that typically from the wide receiver position later in the season consistently. Unless you back into it. The example that I wanted to give is Hunter Renfro. I don't remember what Renfro's starting roster ship percentages were when

Henry rugs was still a part of the Raiders. Yeah, no, he was in that three to four week window. Cause he was getting good production early in the season. He was getting like around 10, 11, 12 PPR points per game.

And then when rugs got hurt, Holy cow, he blew up. And I mean, he was getting a close to 15, if not way over the whole second half of the year, you can make the counter argument to these guys are getting picked up early in the season and then maybe started later in the year.

Absolutely. You know, but it's, it's, again, I think it's just more of the, um, Rashad Penny type of guys, you know, where you're picking up somebody as you see things unfolding, you see Chris Carson go down and you're sitting on Rashad Penny, maybe the same thing, but you know, you're, you see what you're getting getting the type of production that you're getting point being that i i know i'm going to need at least two wide receivers that i'm going to feel great about starting week in and week out as soon as like the end of round five if not even sooner in a three receiver league i want to fill those two spots for sure with wide receivers that i know are going to give me good production what round did you say like round five two wide receivers by then yeah in a three receiver

league at minimum i i think you have to and i don't think that's necessarily asking for too much some people would say you really should have two receivers by your first three picks if you're starting three wide receivers because that position is so huge. But I just, I feel more comfortable chasing receivers. I'm going to chase everybody off the waiver wire. I'm a dog chasing cars, but I'm more comfortable looking for wide receivers later on and adding depth at running back on draft day with players who I think have a chance to bust out within the first month of the year. You said, you know, some people think you need two wide receivers with your first three picks. And this is why I did what I did last night and this morning and looking at where these

wide receivers finished or these top 12 wide receivers where they were drafted rather. It should be the first four rounds in a 12 team league. The first four rounds, you know, that's where you're going to get most of your wide receivers who finish in the top 12. And that doesn't mean, look, you get a wide receiver that finishes 15th and take them in round six or something like that. I can't do all the number crunching, but the vast majority of the top 12 wide receivers are drafted in the first four rounds. And round four is a great round for wide receivers because people go crazy on running back in the first three rounds. Not so much, you know, you got about 12 wide receivers that come off the board in the

first three rounds. Round four is a great wide receiver round. So that's kind of where I think you should be targeting based on the numbers that I've, you know, the numbers that I just, that I witnessed and we'll share with you in a minute. So let's do observations at each position. I'll give you an observation at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight ends based on what we've seen in the last three or four years. And you tell me what you think about it. So at quarterback, most of the guys who finished top 12 are drafted top 12. Last year, I think it was 11 out of the 12 best. It's six point per pass in touchdown leagues were drafted that way

because somehow, some way, Ryan Tannehill finished his QB 12. But, you know, 9, 10, 11 of the top 12 over the last three years have been drafted top 12. Not a ton of surprises, I guess. But one thing that I have noticed, Jamie, is that you go back now four seasons. Four seasons ago, Patrick Mahomes was QB1, and Matt Ryan was QB2,

and they were not drafted in the top 12. I think Mahomes was QB13 and Ryan was QB15. No, I've switched that. Mahomes was QB15 on draft day, and Ryan was QB13. Okay, starting with that season, the last four seasons, seven of the eight quarterbacks who have finished one or two,

this is amazing to me, seven of those eight were drafted no earlier than QB9. The only exception was Josh Allen last year where he had his second straight top two finish and he was drafted as the number two quarterback. But you're talking about Mahomes and Ryan, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott the following year, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and then Tom Brady,

who was QB nine, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, in 2021. The top two quarterbacks are almost never drafted early. They're four years in a row, seven of the eight QB nine or later. What do you think about that? What's Russell Wilson's ADP right now? Probably. Yeah, I'll tell you. I'll tell you.

That's a good question. All right, let's see. But yeah, I mean, that's, I thought, look, number three was drafted early most years. He's going after Trey Lance. One, two, three, four, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,

9, 10, 11, 12. The trend will continue. Wait a minute. You're finding the ranking from ADP on Russell Wilson and you're already at 11? 12. He's going 12?

Behind Trey Lance and Jalen Hurts. I don't know if I'm ready to trust this data. All right, but I bet you he's going to. Is this 2023 ADP? Because this doesn't sound like 2022. Okay, you tell me how off this sounds. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes. I bet that's falling.

Kyler Murray. Justin Herbert. Lamar Jackson. Aaron Rod know. Kyler Murray. Justin Herbert. Lamar Jackson. Aaron Rodgers. That surprises me. Joe Burrow. Matthew Stafford. Dak Prescott.

Jalen Hurts. There's got to be some startup dynasty in there. Yeah. Trey Lance Russell. Oh, maybe. That's what it feels like. Russell Wilson. Where's Brady?

Brady is... Yeah, he's low yeah is NFC no this is fantasy football calculator yeah it could be some startup dynasty alright but I could see him being QB9 yeah yeah that's what I was going for

I was going to say somewhere between 7 and 9 so you know he's the one I would say if you're going to continue the trend look we know it's a position that has, you know, not necessarily volatility, but it has guys that take leaps. Mahomes, the year you referenced. Lamar Jackson, we know that. You know, Aaron Rodgers was certainly drafted outside the top 12,

or right at 12, two seasons ago when he won his first of consecutive MVPs the last two years, and then comes back the second season, and, you know, everybody was, was on board to whatever extent, you know, whether he was drafted in the top five or certainly in the top 10. So there's going to be somebody probably of that group. You know,

I'm a little concerned about Kyler with the, with the potential holdout. So he's a little bit lower for me. So he's in this range. Dak is in this range. Russell Wilson's in this range. You know, depending on how you feel about Brady,

still he's, he might be in this range. And then you mentioned the one guy, he might be in this range. And then you mentioned the one guy. Trey Lance is certainly somebody that's a darling for a lot of people. I don't have him ranked inside the top 12 as of now, but I think once they move on from Jimmy Garoppolo and we get a little bit more security about it, he's going to be right there. So there's going to be a player or two that comes either from the 7 to 9 range

that finishes in the top 1 or 2, or somebody just outside the to nine range that finishes in the top one or two, or somebody, you know, just outside the top 12, they'll probably finish in the top 12. So it's again, why you don't have to reach for the position. You know, we talked about this last night, Adam, in terms of, uh, when do you want to buy in? Because, you know, you, you referenced that they finished basically, um, in the range of a starter, you know, Lamar Jackson probably being the one big disappointment from the position last year due to injury and a little subpar performance when he was on the field over the course of his full games. So, you know, we have Deshaun Watson back for however many games he's going to play. We have, you know, some guys that changed teams like Russell Wilson and some guys that got significant quarter weapon upgrades in, you know, somebody like Tua and Derek Carr.

So it's going to be an interesting position this year once again. You know, if you want to get the Josh Allens and Lamar Jackson's Justin Herberts of the world, you certainly are going to be able to hopefully get them at a little bit of a bargain. You know, not necessarily the first two rounds, but maybe around three. But every league is different. You know, every league still values quarterbacks a little bit different. There's going to be probably one or two that have a quarterback going the first round, which we don't necessarily love.

By the way, on NFC, since April 1st, Russell Wilson, it's only seven drafts, I think. Russell Wilson is QB 11. I will love if that stays that way. I think the other takeaway is, yeah, I think, it's pretty, I think that's pretty crazy. Seven of the last eight top two QBs have been QB nine or later, but on draft day. But the other thing is you're not seeing a lot of sleepers here break into

the top 12 or top five or anything. You know, it's Kirk Cousins seems to outperform his ADP every year. And I know, Jamie, you like him a lot. But Dave, it hasn't been that kind of position where the waiver wire guy is winning you your league. It's kind of exactly what we... It's very similar to what we expect on draft day. It seems that way anyway. Yeah, I don't know if there's anything I can add

that's really enlightening to that. There's good quarterbacks. They're staying staying healthy they're putting up huge numbers there i guess what i could add to it is that there are at least i mean let's let's throw them all in there there are six quarterbacks that are going to be entering their second year each of which you could make at least a decent case in the with davis mills he would be decent and with zach wilson probably decent too but the other four and you know the names trevor lawrence trey lance justin fields mac jones those guys have upside they've got potential to finish his top 12 fantasy quarterbacks things have to go their way they have to play better than they did last year their offenses

have to play better it'll probably take an injury or two from those top 12 quarterbacks that have just been so stable over the last three or four seasons but if that's what you're looking for with the blue chip quarterback is you look at trevor lawrence and let's just say he has an awesome preseason he doesn't throw any interceptions and all the reports are great out of camp and christian kirk is you know turning into somebody better than he ever was that'll get the hype train going and people will start to gravitate toward taking him on the hope that someone will need a quarterback. They're not going to get anything great in trade for him, but Trevor Lawrence ends up being north of 25 fantasy points a week and actually displaces the Aaron Rodgers or

Jalen Hurts, the first guy you drafted, and he's your starting quarterback moving forward. There are those second-year quarterbacks are the guys who will do it. It won't be the rookie quarterbacks this year. And I don't think there's going to be many of the third-year quarterbacks that aren't already well-known names. Yeah, I'd say the year two quarterbacks

have the chance to kind of flip the script on the recent trends because you can get them as QB 15 or later. You can get Justin Field based on ADP. I'm seeing Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence, for example, as backups. And they've got the opportunity to be sleepers, be breakouts in a way that we haven't really seen too much of. Justin Herbert, Ryan Tannehill recently, but not a ton of it.

All right, we're going to take a break here and talk about what your running back strategy should be based on the recent trends. How many running backs are drafted late and finish top 12 at the position? We'll tell you right after this break on Fantasy Football today. What does possible sound like for your business?

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We're back to talk running backs. So let me give you the trends over the last three or four seasons in both half PPR and full PPR. Over the past three seasons, there have only been three running backs who have finished top 12 and half PPR while being drafted after round five. I thought that was pretty surprising. Almost every single top 12 running back has been drafted rounds one through five. Only three in the past three seasons finished top 12 being drafted after round five in half PPR.

Two of them did it this past year, James Conner and Leonard Fournette. I think they were both around eight picks and they finished as top seven running backs. In full PPR, it's a similar story. It's the same three names and the only addition is Mike

Davis who finished as RB12 in 2020. But Dave, most of the top 12 running backs were drafted in the first five rounds. Anything to say about that? If you value the running back position, and most people will at least accept the fact that they are an important part

and certainly a productive part of fantasy football lineups, you want to get as many opportunities to hit it big with a running back as you can. And if you've got five for picks obviously everybody does a lot of people will want to spend three of them on running backs it's not necessarily something that should be etched in stone you should get at least one stud we've already talked about having at least one stud running back and if the value presents itself or you look at the running back position getting thin and thin and you're up in round three and you're deciding between you know a wide receiver that maybe someone like him or the actual receiver has a chance to make it back to you in the fourth round versus a running back where there's only really one running back left that you like

you almost gravitate toward taking the running back because the supply is going away and you can get the last good one or at least the last one running back that you can feel good about seeing as a top 12 guy at the end of the year. I'm thinking of David Montgomery, and David Montgomery necessarily doesn't have the best setup for this year, questions about the offensive line, questions about the offensive general, but we know that the workload has been there, and he's someone that I think fantasy managers could look at and say, yeah, if he gets enough work and if he stays healthy,

should easily finish as a top 10 fantasy running back, much less a top 12. And that's the type of running back that you're going to look at, and you'll see the next best running back, and you'll go, yeah, I don't know how I feel about Elijah Mitchell or J.K. Dobbins or two rounds later, someone like Chase Edmonds. I'm just going to go ahead and take the best running back that I think is available because the next best running back is someone who I don't think is as good. And that will help you kind of map out your draft in real time. Jamie, over the past three seasons, we've had seven to

nine running backs drafted in the first two rounds that finished top 12. So that's a decent success rate. That's about half of the running backs who were drafted in the first two rounds finishing in the top 12. And that's, I mean, is that basically why Hero RB is sort of replacing Zero RB? Or at least as a clever rhyme, but as a nice pun.

But I don't know. I mean, I prefer Zero. I prefer Hero RB. I don't like Zero RB. But I think a lot of. I don't know. I prefer hero RB. I don't like zero RB. I think a lot of people lean that way now. No, I agree. I think, like I told you, we had the discussion

on our live draft last week between Joe Pisapia of Fantasy Pros and Heath about Joe made the comment, and I know he didn't mean it the way that he said it, but he said that zero RB was a lazy way of drafting. And, you know, Heath, you know, countered that by saying it's probably a more difficult way of drafting,

which I think most people probably lean that way because you have to, you know, really strategize how you want to, you know, when you want to attack that position, the running back position, how long do you want to wait? You know, some people think it's after your first six picks you know some may say it's after your first four picks some may take a little bit uh longer than that i was in an analyst draft last year where the first eight picks were non-running backs and that fantasy manager we only started at most five receivers and so that fantasy manager really went away from the running back position and i think struggled as a result of it because they drafted,

I think it was A.J. Dillon, and there was another prominent handcuff but didn't get the return on investment because the starter in front of them didn't necessarily miss a lot of time. So there's different ways to approach it. You have to make sure if you go the zero RB route, you have to land on the right running backs early in the season to help you get through and then clearly be successful in the waiver wire. But I agree with you. I think Hero RB is a little bit more, I don't want to say safe, but just a little bit better approach to it

because of the ability to at least lock up that position with hopefully a star, whether it's a top tier star or a second tier star. And then, you know, again, it's how you attack the second part of that position. Once you get your wide receivers, quarterback, you know, tight end, depending on how you want to go. It's almost, then you're going back to the same zero RB strategy of, you know, the Raheem Mosterts of the world, you know, the guys that are going to get you an early start in the beginning of the season. And then hopefully, you know, you pick up a couple of guys that you feel pretty comfortable that at some point in the year,

they're going to have some significant value. What matters more talent or opportunity at running back? Hate to say it, but it's opportunity. And that comes with years and years of, of experience in fantasy football. Yeah. You know,

the thing about it is, is like, who's the talent, who's the talent evaluator. Is it us as fantasy analysts? Is know the thing about it is is like who's the talent who's the talent evaluator is it us as fantasy analysts is it the fantasy player or are you saying the coach because we probably see things differently from time to time than the coaches do when we talk about that yes um you know and and that's part of it you know so uh i'm trying to think what was the was it the dolphins uh the frank gore year where where they kept giving Frank Gore the ball all the time? We're like, what are you doing?

Oh, Adam Case. There's times where coaches think that their players are capable of doing more, and there might be a more talented player on the roster that doesn't get those opportunities for whatever reason. Trey Sermon last year, for example. So I would say opportunity, year, for example. I would say opportunity, unfortunately, as well. Dave, I think, said it best. Opportunity does

matter the most, but I do push back on the thought that it matters so much more than talent because I always say, I have been saying lately, if you're not good enough, you will lose the job to someone that we don't even expect.

That's what happened with Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis. We never thought Cordero Patterson or Duke Johnson could come in and take the job, but if these guys aren't good enough, they will not continue to be force fed opportunities. They will be phased out or lose the job entirely.

It's just something to keep in mind. It's like that at every position, though, Adam. Yeah, yeah. It's not just for running backs. It's definitely like that at quarterback. But nobody's taking a player that they don't think is any good in the first five rounds because of opportunity at any other position other than running back.

You know what I mean? Well, this wide receiver's not very good, but he could get a ton of targets i feel like that guy usually goes in the eighth round or something like that but at running back it's the fifth round yeah it's uh christian kirk alan lazard you know the situations that they're in right now where they're the number one guys on on their teams obviously different scenarios um but yeah you're right you know, you know, we, we end up taking the guy that we're, we're hoping we'll get 15 plus touches because maybe that leads to some semblance of quality production. And you're hoping that eventually the situation works at works itself out for the best. You know, like think about James Conner last year, a talented guy that was on a good offense, but we were writing him off because he was coming off that injury-riddled campaign and just failures with the Steelers,

and he resurrected himself. So opportunity there eventually, the chance to get another opportunity led itself to him having a great fantasy season and clearly what worked out for him from a reality standpoint as well. And the flip side of that's also true. Who do you think is a more talented running back melvin gordon or gervonta williams yeah

gervonta and everybody would have said gervonta well guess what they were 50 50 all year long it was annoying and it sucked and i'm glad that coaching staff is gone in denver and hopefully the new one will give gervonta williams the type of work that he deserves because he's earned it because he's more talented than the other running backs on that roster. And I think it's going to end up coming to pass that he will be. You should feel a lot better now about Javante. Unless they get Brees Hall or Kenneth Walker in the draft, I think you're looking at Javante getting at least a 60-40 split of that workload. And he deserves it.

He's the more talented running back. But J.K. Dobbins is another example. Maybe not necessarily the best example since he's hurt right now, but I think he's a tremendous running back. Well, I mean, stay in one for last year. Tyson Williams versus Devontae Freeman. Do you remember how crazy I went over Tyson last year? And he's the one that actually showed me the light.

He said, listen, man, he's making mistakes. And if he keeps making those mistakes, he's not going to play. And he did not play and it ended up being davante freeman who ended up helping to a degree for fantasy managers he wasn't terrible for a waiver wire ad he was good and javante williams was the guy that i thought was a great you know i guess zero rb pick i drafted him in so many leagues. I just figured I'll wait it out. I'll wait it out. Maybe it'll take half the season, but at some point, I thought he was

going to win every one of their leagues. I think he could have. He showed at least the talent to do so. He had the one week where he was RB1 when Melvin Gordon was out, but Gordon stayed healthy and Gordon stayed 50-50. That's why opportunity is everything. Who's getting the playing time?

Who's getting the third down work? Who's working at the goal line? Who's getting the targets? And this is for any position. Who's getting work in the red zone? All that stuff. So let's say we're in a three-receiver PPR league. Give me a breakdown of your first six picks,

you know, each position, not the players, but how many of each position do you think you will have after six picks? After six picks, I'm almost certain I will have at least three running backs because I'm a running back simp and at least two wide receivers, probably in most drafts, let's say you did a simulation with my rankings, you'll probably end up with three and three after the first six rounds, 80% of the time, and then one tight end in there instead of a wide receiver the other 20% of the time. I would rarely take a quarterback. He'd have to really slip for me to take one in the first six rounds. I'll go to you in a second, Jamie, but that to me says you're waiting on tight end because you're not getting a top five guy if you don't take one in the first six rounds. I'm kind of looking for value when it comes to Kelsey, and I don't think I...

You said that Andrews' ADP was 21st. I'm not ready to take Mark Andrews at 21st overall. Okay, Jamie, the first six picks for you, a typical breakdown by position would be what? I would say probably two and four if I'm not going tight end or quarterback at some point, but I tend to wait on quarterback a lot, obviously. Two running backs, four receivers, Jamie?

Two running backs, four receivers. Okay. Yeah, go ahead. Sorry, go ahead. But yeah, I think it's kind of all over the place. Yeah, it is. But I really think, as of right now, I want one of those tight ends. But I'll tell you.

One of those two or one of those five? One of those five. Okay. Probably, probably Waller I think is the guy I'm going to gravitate toward, but you know, I guess we can skip right ahead to tight end and talk wide receiver last, but tight end,

I thought was really interesting because each of the last three seasons, I just looked at the, I didn't look at the top 12. Nobody cares about tight end 10. It's not an impactful player. I just looked at the top six and it's basically an even split between guys who were drafted

to be studs, which doesn't mean the first two rounds or whatever because, you know, you get stud tight ends in round five, round four, whatever. It's an even split

between the guys who were drafted to be top six or top five tight ends and guys who were drafted in round four or whatever. It's an even split between the guys who were drafted to be top six or top five tight ends and guys who were drafted in round 10 or later, 12 or later, something like that. There's a lot of those names. There's Austin Hooper three years ago. And, uh, and four years ago, there were four guys who kind of came out of nowhere. It was like Jared cook Hooper again. I don't remember all the names. You had the Logan Thomas, Robert Tunyon. 2020. 2020. There was one other guy in there

who was drafted outside the top 10 rounds. And then last year, it was Dalton Schultz. 2020 might have been wrong, right? I don't know if he finished there. I'll tell you in a second. All right, 2020 was Kelsey and Waller were the top two, and they were drafted to be that way. Tunyon, not drafted. Hawkinson, round 13. Mark Andrews, round four.

Logan Thomas, not drafted. So that's three of the six. 2019, you had Waller, Andrews, and Hooper drafted in round 10 or later. And 2021, depending on the format, you had Schultz, Zach Ertz, and Rob Gronkowski drafted rounds 10 or later. And that was in half PPR.

In full PPR, you only had two guys drafted late because Kyle Pitts snuck in there and he was drafted in round four. But Rob Gronkowski was five points behind him and was better per game and was drafted much later. So it's basically been a 50-50 split between guys who were drafted to be studs and guys who were barely on our radar

or late round picks at tight end that finished in the top six, three straight years. So, and the thing is, Dave, it's not like you look at this and you go, Oh, well, I could see it being this guy that they come out of nowhere. You know, you never thought Logan Thomas or Robert Tunyon would be that guy. I don't know how much we thought Dalton Schultz would be that guy. He was a waiver wire pickup. So what does that say about how we should be drafting tight ends? When we also know that typically the guys who go in rounds four through six, they're

not very good. But I think last year was an exception. Last year they were... Eh, I don't know. It was what? Andrews was the best and then it was Pitts and Hawkinson. Did they really return round five-ish value? Pitts doesn't feel like it, but he finished top six overall in full PPR

points. Yeah, not even close per game, though. I think he was like 12 per game or something. No, he was barely top 12. I think he was 11th in PPR points per game. Yeah. And Hawkinson got off to a great start and then disappeared and then stepped up again and then really got hurt late in the year. He didn't even play the last five games.

Yeah, so I don't know. I mean, if I sit here and say, well, my first six picks, I want one of those tight ends. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I should just wait it out. You should know that that's an option. You should know that it's an option to wait out tight end. And you can wait it out into October if you really wanted to

and just stream the position. You're looking for a guy that's, here comes that word again, opportunity. You're looking for somebody who could potentially be the first or second target getter most weeks for his team. It sounds simple and it's hard to predict that Dalton Schultz is going to be that guy for the Dallas Cowboys. Before the season starts, they have all these awesome receivers. How could that possibly be? But guys, receivers get hurt, tight ends step up. Also, tight ends, sometimes in the case of Robert Tunyon,

circa 2020, just became a huge end zone guy. Caught a lot of touchdowns. That's what made him an awesome guy. Yeah, absolutely. What were you going to say, Jamie? No, I was going to say, it's like, you know, you say you're going to wait it out, but, you know, Dave kindave kind of hit on it it's like who are you waiting it out for you know and he said you know you wait until you know you stream the position but yeah um there's also a

lot of failures in that as well you know so it's almost like you know you you draft somebody that can give you the floor you know whether it's a a pretty good floor like a dallas goddard uh maybe a little bit lower floor than like a Zach Ertz. And then, you know, you maybe draft the second guy that has what could be a lot of upside. And I think we could see some scenarios where there are some guys with upside this year. It's names that feel kind of icky

because we've been chasing these guys for years. But I mean, think about what the Browns did. They bring in a better quarterback and they let Austin Hooper go. So maybe this is David Njoku's year because they invested in him. Maybe Mike Isecki with the new play caller and Mike McDaniel, who comes from what they did with Hooper go. So maybe this is David Njoku's year because they invested in him. Maybe Mike Gusecki with the new play caller and Mike McDaniel, who comes from what they did with George Kittle.

And you're already hearing that conversation happening. You know, Gusecki talked about it this week about how he's been watching a lot of George Kittle tape and wanting to, you know, do some of the similar things in this offense. You know, who knows,

maybe Noah Fant, however, the quarterback situation shakes out in Seattle, finally has his opportunity. Albert O now in Denver. There are definitely guys that you can see the path to success, but it's a matter of will they get there. And so it's not a bad position to take two swings at.

Instead of maybe taking two quarterbacks, you take two tight ends. I'm speaking to you, Adam. You take two tight ends, and you hopefully hit on one of them. No chance. That is, to me, that is not, I would much rather take two quarterbacks than two tight ends because. That's crazy to me. No, because the second quarterback I take could be Justin Field.

I'll just do teammates here. The second quarterback I would take would probably be Justin Fields. And the second tight end I would take, I like Cole Komet. I think I always, always, always look for the guy who's going to be top two on his team and targets. Almost every single top five tight end, including the ones that come out of nowhere, are top two on their team and targets.

And Komet, to me, I would project him to be two. As of now, I mean, things could change. So I would much rather have Fields than Komet. You know, I would just, I'd much rather have Fields than Komet. I'd much rather have Lawrence than... Not Ingram, but Lawrence than Komet. Lawrence than whoever my second tight end would be. I think you've got a much bigger chance

of getting a league-winning home run hitter at quarterback than you do at tight end, personally. But wouldn't you be drafting that quarterback first? Their first quarterback? Fields or Lawrence? No, no, no, no. Your starting quarterback. Oh, yeah, yeah.

But I don't mind taking two shots at it. I would have no problem. I probably wouldn't. If I took Russell Wilson, I probably wouldn't take a second quarterback, but I wouldn't have a problem with it because I wouldn't mind keeping him away from you. Yeah, I don't know.

I'd rather take the shot at the tight end twice. This is another example of why you should know how many bench spots you have before you go into your draft. I mean, I think you got to assume most leagues are five. Five or six, but sometimes you'll play in some that are seven or eight. And if you do have deeper benches, then you can get away with doing both. You can have two tight ends and two quarterbacks. Wouldn't recommend that if you only have five or six spots unless you've got ir spots and you're picking somebody that's going to start the year on ir and you know you can tool around a little

bit with that but i i agree with jamie i think it's i think you'd rather take that shot on draft day of of trying to find a player with upside at tight end versus quarterback because wow because i i just i mean your first quarterback is russell wilson and your second quarterback is trevor lawrence and they're both doing well for you you're only starting one you're starting russell wilson and look i've been guilty of taking two quarterbacks in a draft before because there's just incredible value there's nothing to get in trade for the quarterback what you think you will. No, I know. Versus the tight end, and you might not even want to trade the second tight end. There's nothing wrong

with having another great player on your team, even if you're not, even if you have this conundrum, oh, I have two great quarterbacks. And you're right, Jamie, what you just said, I did make the case, based on the numbers, that the late round tight end is much more likely to finish high at the numbers that the late round tight end is much more likely to

finish high at the position than the late round quarterback. But I also think it's, it's not necessarily the guys we draft. It's all these surprises that you can just pick up. That's why you're, you're trying to get ahead of that though. So, you know,

we, we, we didn't expect Dalton Schultz to be that, but obviously once Blake Jarvin was hurt last season in training camp, you know or continue to you're still hurt coming off the injury from the previous year it was okay he was in that 15 range you know for for potential drafting um you know i i think there are obviously a lot of people taking shots on gronk when we came back you know about what could he become

even after you know coming out of retirement with three tight ends on the roster you know so the the the, the Logan Thomas's and the Robert Tunyon's of the world, obviously no one's going to find those on draft day, unless you're in, you know, a 30 team league and you're drafting every player at every position. But I think if you're going to swing for the fence, if I have already drafted a Russell Wilson or a Dak Prescott or a Kyler Murray or whoever, I'm not taking a second quarterback because I'm counting on that guy to be great. And to do exactly what you said from that position, which is finished in the top 12. Whether he finished his one or he finished 12, at least the return on investment is pretty close. Whereas if I don't get one of the top five tight ends, or even if I do, why not take a flyer on somebody who could be good in the scenario of what you've described in terms of the stats of becoming that next great tight end? I don't know.

That just feels more like a better risk. Because in all likelihood, that tight end is not going to be good. In fact, in all likelihood, he's going to be so bad that you're going to drop him. That's just the tight end position just stinks. There are only five or six good ones every year. I think the quarterback that this year in particular, because I really do like gambling on these year two quarterbacks, I do think it's deeper.

Well, we'll see how these year two quarterbacks do. They will determine the depth of the position. And also Carr and Cousins got better, and they'll probably be drafted somewhere around 12 to 15. Well, you think Cousins got better, Jamie, with the new coach. But Carr definitely got better. Anyway, I think those guys have a better chance of being league winners.

And yeah, if I took a top six or seven quarterback, I don't think I would take a second unless I just hated everyone else on the board. And I'll just, okay, fine. I'll just take this quarterback. But if I took Jalen Hurts or if Trey Lance makes his way into the top 12 or something like that,

I'm definitely taking two quarterbacks. Yeah, that's obviously a more likely scenario. And clearly, if you draft Watson, you're going to draft a second quarterback, at least as of now until we know the news. So there are scenarios where taking a second quarterback makes more sense than taking a second tight end. But I don't know. I just feel like if you're going to try and get a league winner,

you've already gotten one, essentially, by drafting that quarterback earlier. I would want to take a chance on. It doesn't have to be tight end. I mean, you know, but, you know, clearly there's a lot of late round guys that could fall into these scenarios of, okay, I see the path. Hopefully this is the year that it happens. And if it doesn't, then I move on.

You know what? You'll probably find a backup quarterback on waivers that could be similar to the guy that you wanted to draft late as well. Or you trade for one and it comes at a cheaper price let's take a look at the wide receiver trends by the way just to put a bow on this tight end discussion just something i'm seeing in my in my tight end notes the last four seasons half of the top five tight ends were drafted in round 12 or later. That's a pretty good way to sum up the position. Half of the top five tight ends in PPR were drafted in round 12 or later

over the last four seasons. Wide receiver. So rounds one through four, that's where you're going to find most of your top 12 guys. And round four, as I said earlier, has been a really good round because people load up on running backs, wide receivers fall a little bit, and round four has been very, very profitable. I think that what you saw at wide receiver in 2021, you have to realize was not the norm. When you look at the amount of wide receivers

who finished top 12 and were drafted after round six, so round seven or later, there were four of them last year. Four of them in half PPR was Jamar Chase, Debo Samuel, Cordaro Patterson, and Hunter Renfro. And four of them in full PPR replaced Patterson with Jalen Waddle, I believe. That is as many as the three previous seasons combined. And that number, again, is the amount of top 12 wide receivers who were drafted in round seven or later. The three previous seasons, you had either 10 or 11 of the top 12 drafted in the first six rounds. So this is not a position

where you are finding late round gems. I mean, you do find, I know Justin Jefferson had happened, and this past year it happened with four guys. That is not typical. So almost all the top 12 guys were drafted in the top six rounds. Most years last year was, was different. Is that a sign of things to come? I don't think so. But what do you think, Dave? I mean, should we be approaching it in the first six rounds? You should have three wide receivers, you know, to give yourself the best chance of having a top 12 guy or two. I think that makes sense. I still think you can find a good wide receiver in round seven or eight that can be helpful for your team. Real quick question.

Where did Mike Williams, what was his ADP last year? Because I figure he was drafted round seven or later. I don't think he was top 12, though. I've got him tied in full PPR with Jalen Waddle for PPR points for the year. Yeah, so that's another one. That's what I think. About 100th overall, I think. I think part of the reason why it was rare

was because there were two amazing rookie wide receivers, Chase being one of them, Waddle being another, that just got huge opportunities in their offense, and they played big through it. Waddle was 13 points behind Waddle.

Yeah, it depends what scoring you look at. But fine, even if he was a wide receiver 13, that's another example of a guy drafted after round seven. There were a few guys in between them. Oh, okay. All right. I've got the cumulative points being dead even between the two of them. So who knows?

Renfro. Guy got hurt. Waller got hurt. Ruggs got kicked off the team. Renfro got a huge opportunity. He played awesome. Patterson, I don't know if we're really counting him as a wide receiver, but if you could have started him at wide receiver,

all righty then. I guess he counts too. He got a huge opportunity and scored a bunch of touchdowns. Well, he was eligible at wide receiver. He wasn't eligible at running back. He was, but I don't think a lot of people started him as a wide receiver. I did. He must have had really for running back. He was, but I don't think a lot of people started him as a wide receiver. I didn't. Yeah, I mean, look. He must have had really good running backs.

He's annoying. In this conversation, he's just, he's unlike most wide receivers, obviously, because he played running back. But, you know, I guess my point is get wide receiver early. It doesn't have to be super early, but don't go zero wide receiver. Nobody goes zero wide receiver, right? That's not a thing, I don't think. No, you'll struggle. You will definitely feel some pain during the year if you do that. I didn't really factor in non-PPR, by the way. I think your strategy in non-PPR should be take

a running back with each of your first 15 picks. No, not quite that. But, Jamie, what would you say to somebody in non-PPR? What do you do? I mean, it obviously lends itself to wanting to go running back, a little more running back heavy, just because of what those guys mean and catches don't count. So this is where the Damian Harris is and the Elijah Mitchells and those caliber of guys.

And you can make a case for Derrick Henry even being number one still where they don't factor in the passing game as much. But, yeah, I think, you know, you want to have that position a little bit more secure probably than wide receiver, even in a three a three receiver league. But, um, you know, it's really more of a half PPR conversation, I think, than a non non PPR conversation. Cause I don't know how many people still play non PPR that listen to our

show. Yeah. I mean, I get, I get a lot of questions, especially, no, I know they do, but I mean, you know, it's, it's obviously a different, different audience that we're typically talking to. Right. All right, so if we're going to sum up our strategy show, how would you do that, Dave? Know what your league rules are. Look for players that are going to get good opportunities. Don't skimp on wide receiver or running back. They're obviously the most important positions.

There's clear evidence that you can slash should wait for quarterbacks and tight ends and keep listening to the podcasts that help you feel good about the direction of your fantasy teams jamie never draft two quarterbacks what about two quarterback league and super flex those are the only ones then draft three i i think the most interesting takeaway was that half of the top five tight ends in the last four seasons were drafted after round 12 and if you if you don't like your tight end on draft day yet your season's not over that there's plenty of uh plenty of ways to make up for that uh so it is going to be an interesting thing to prioritize and also to me i got to have at least three wide receivers through the first six rounds of ways to make up for that. So it is going to be an interesting thing to prioritize. And also,

to me, I got to have at least three wide receivers through the first six rounds. I think. I think if I, I'm hoping that round seven

is a good quarterback round. I'm sure it will be. So I can see my first seven, my first six picks being two running backs. Either three and three or two and four, as you guys said, quarterback in round seven, and then I don't know. I don't know how I feel about the tight ends.

I really don't. That is one that I'm going to have to figure out because this research opened my eyes, and I think the situation is worse for Kittle, Pitts, and Waller. I mean, they haven't had good off seasons. Is that fair to say? Well, I mean, Kittle, it's not really this off season. It's more.

It's the Trey Lance assumption. Right, you're worried that Trey Lance is going to change how that offense looks. It's just, I don't want to write off Trey Lance being good for George Kittle yet. You know, so, it feels, you know, the games that they played together,

there were two of them. There was one where he was heavily targeted and one where he wasn't at really much at all. So, it's, I think,

you know, you still give Kittle the benefit of the doubt. Waller obviously has had a bad offseason, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should run away from him. No,

no, I mean, I think his value could end up being pretty good. He's almost into round five. All right, Waller obviously has had a bad offseason, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should run away from him. No, no. I mean, I think his value could end up being pretty good. He's almost into round five. All right. That's it for our show today. Thank you, everybody, for watching and listening. Glad to be back. Check us out tomorrow.

Same bat time, same bat place. Have a great day. Adam, your family. I just want to make a public comment. Your family is so warm and loving loving and like calm and sweet i met your father just so generous with his time and just big smiles all around your son was just a pleasure to to see your daughter was adorable your wife is fantastic you're you're a blessed man my son was just terrified of dave he just of every of, but any stranger. He just grabs onto me.

Was he terrified of me or terrified to let you go? Because of you. He thought I was going to take you away forever. You're probably the tallest guy he's ever seen. As soon as someone new comes in, he's just like grabbing. He just won't let go of me. It was great

to have Dave meet the family. It was good stuff. And to go to lunch with Dave, Heath, and Jamie. Sorry none of you were out there. We would have loved to have met you all for lunch. All right, I'm out. I got to go. I got to go. I got to set a fancy baseball lineup.

The first pitch is now. See you, everybody.