Fantasy Football Today - Super Bowl 57 Top Props, Bets, & Predictions! - Pick Six Podcast

Episode Date: February 12, 2023

Will Brinson, John Breech, and Ryan Wilson give their favorite prop bets for Super Bowl 57! Join the Pick Six Pro Football Pick'Em Contest: https://picksixpod.football.cbssports.com/opm Get 20% off Pick Six merch using code PICKSIX20: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/pick-six?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=pick-six-collection Visit the Pick Six YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/picksix 'Pick Six' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts. You can listen to Pick Six on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Pick Six NFL podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Pick Six NFL podcast." Follow the Pick Six team on Twitter: @picksixpod, @willbrinson, @ryanwilsonCBS, @johnbreech, @billtrice31 Check out the Pick Six Instagram page https://www.instagram.com/picksixpod/?hl=en Read the Pick Six newsletter here: https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/picksix/ Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/758548147935545/ For more NFL coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. Thank you, Jenny Dell. We're out here again for another Big 6 Podcast show presented by Expedia Made to Travel. Will Brinson, John Breach, and Ryan Wilson. A little bit different scene behind us today, gentlemen. A lot of people having fun doing the Super Bowl experience. Fun fact, I was thrown out of the Super Bowl experience this morning.

That is the least surprising thing I have heard this week. I agree. We're going to do some props today. How are we feeling? I feel pretty good. I feel great. I took a nap, so I'm ready to go. Why did you need a nap?

Because we're on mountain time. My body doesn't understand it. Let's dive right in with some prop bets. How about it? Let's do it. Who wants to go first Why'd you need a nap? Because we're on mountain time. My body doesn't understand it. Let's dive right in with some prop bets. How about it? Let's do it. Who wants to go first? Breach? Wait, why'd you guys switch seats? That's how Miranda wanted it. We do what Miranda asked us to do. Well, we were trying to confuse Brenton.

It has worked. Are you looking at his face right now? This violates your restraining order. Breach, give us a prop. We're going to start with yardage props, by the way. Yardage props for, of course, Super Bowl 57. We are in Phoenix, obviously. You can see behind us the Super Bowl experience. I see a Spike the Spud football potato guy, Brian Urlacher jersey, all kinds of stuff.

Who you got? First yardage prop, Breach. All right. Here's my first yardage prop. Will Jalen Hurts throw a pass longer than 37 and a half yards? I say yes. And the reason I love this one is because, A, he has Devontae Smith. He has A.J. Brown.

And you have these two guys going up against a young Chiefs secondary. It only takes one long pass for this to happen, and I think it's going to happen. I'm going to go Patrick Mahomes, mahomes the quarterback yeah heard of him over 294 and a half passing yards wow so over so that's not i'm not wowing by the way i'm not wowing that that uh that pick i'm wowing the number that number is called it was like 281 i think when it opened it's going up to 294 people are hammering the over in this mahomes yardage prop and i like it because there's multiple ways you can get there. Yeah, 11 times this season

he's thrown for over 294.5. He averaged 308.8 if you round up the 309 breach on the season. And of course, he has this thing that we call an ankle injury. He's two weeks removed from playing on it when he suffered it against the Bengals there.

Was it the Bengals who suffered that ankle injury? No, he re-aggravated against the Bengals. The week before he suffered it against the Bengals there. And I think, was it the Bengals who suffered that ankle injury? No, he re-aggravated it against the Bengals. The week before he suffered it. Yeah. And so he's three weeks removed from it. And, of course, he'll be healthier. But I think he's going to be more inclined to be pass happy. And if they get down because of the Eagles going out on top,

there's more reason to throw the ball there. So I'm going over 2-9, 4-1. Well, a friend of the podcast, Brady Quinn, has pointed out yesterday, Ryan, up here with us, that the Chiefs view the short passing game as sort of an extension of the running game. And so you can end up getting a bunch of these overs with Mahomes, particularly the passing yardage, because they're probably not going to run a ton. Like in a perfect world, they run with Isaiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon,

and they're able to get downhill and pound the football. It's not a perfect world. And the Eagles' defense is very good and will probably force Mahomes to throw the ball a lot. I expect the ball to get out quickly, and you've got guys who can pick up yards after the catch. I'm going to take it over as well, but I'm going to go to the Eagles when I start with this one.

And I am going to take – actually, you know what? I'll go with the Chiefs because it kind of matches up with Ryan Wilson's. Juju Smith-Schuster, over receiving yards, 36 and a half. Juju has disparaged the city of Philadelphia. He has disparaged the good name of cheesesteaks everywhere. But he is a perfect short yardage usage guy. We talk about getting the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands quickly, getting it out early, avoiding contact from those rushers with that ankle.

Juju Smith-Schuster underneath in the slot, quick hitters. I like the over there. By the way, since I gave it out on the Pick 6 podcast audio episode, the pick show with Pete and RJ, it's gotten juiced up. So go ahead and get it in there. The old Brinson bump hit again. What do you think about that breach? I like it. I think that the Mahomes one I like because, like you said, it works either way.

If the Chiefs are getting blown out and you have to throw a lot, you hit it. But if the Chiefs are leading, it's probably because Mahomes is having a big game. And if he's having a big game, then like Britton just said, that ties directly into the Juju's prop. And boom, they both hit. All right, give me another one. All right, we'll stick with the yards. I'm going to stick with Patrick Mahomes here. I'm going to say Patrick Mahomes goes over

18 and a half rushing yards. He did that 10 times this season, and look, I know what you're thinking. He's got a bum ankle. How's he going to do that? Well, I think that's going to work to his advantage because the Eagles defense isn't going to be so worried about him taking off and running,

and I think it's only going to take four or five scrambles for him to hit 19 yards. And I think we'll see him do that. He loves to take off. He does it. And it's going to happen. What's the yardage number again? 18 and a half.

All right. I'm going to go one yard more with someone else in that backfield. Jarek McKinnon over 19 and a half rushing yards. So Clyde Edwards-Alaire is active. We don't know what that's going to look like. Isaiah Bocheco has been sort of the go-to guy the last half of the season or so and had a great run as that rookie seventh-round pick. But we know that the Eagles' defense is stout.

Jarek McKinnon is a change of pace. And if he only need 19 and a half, and he did that six times over the season, and while in recent weeks he wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire because they found other ways to win, I think it only takes one end around. It only takes one run up the middle, and you can get halfway there. And then three or four more carries, you got the 19.5. You can also see an easy draw to McKinnon, like a third and long, where the Eagles drop back.

They're playing a little soft to avoid getting the third and 15 or something like that. And he just rips off a 12-yard run. I'm going to do something similar but kind of different, and I'm going to go Kenneth Gainwell receiving yards. So, you know, not a scat back, but a change of pace back in Kenneth Gainwell. I'm kind of stunned by this number, to be perfectly honest. His receiving yard number is 11.5.

Are you kidding me? Minus 121 in the over. Gainwell has been a good usage guy. I love Gainwell in this game. Even if the Eagles are up big, it's going to be tough to get there with the receiving guards. However, this is a guy who

could be an easy dump-off option. We've seen Jalen Hurts' accuracy down the field has suffered dramatically since that shoulder injury. Would not be surprised at all if the Eagles tried to get the ball out of his hands, into his weapons, in short yardage areas, in order to ease the burden on that accuracy with his shoulder. Got another one for us, Breach?

I do have another one. I'm glad you asked, Brinson. I have Pacheco going over 68. a half rushing and receiving yards. So, look, if Patrick Mahomes is throwing the ball a lot, we know the Eagles pass rush, how good it is. So we could have checkdowns. We could have screens. Whatever it is, I think he is going to touch the ball a lot through the air. Obviously, he will also get a few carries.

And I think 68 and a half seems like almost too low. He hit that number in both playoff games, went well over in both playoff games. So I think he is going to finish it off by going three for three and going over this number three times. Gorkowski thinks it's a half yard too low. By the way, shout out to us for going only overs. Real, real, real sharps here. Real sharps. What's going to change?

Oh, what you got? Jalen Hurts.alen hurts 50 and a half rushing yards going under i like that now obviously he did it a handful of times from the season i count seven as i look at it here but the situation's changed with the shoulder injury i think that the chiefs will key on trying to slow him down and perhaps making him win down the field which we know he can do consistently uh through the course of the season but i don't think they want to lose the run game battle. And that starts with slowing down Jalen Hurts.

The injury is going to play a part. If he takes a big hit early, that could obviously change things. We could have the same conversation about Patrick Mahomes and his ankle. But I'm going under 50 and a half rushing yards. It's at minus 121. Do you think that Jalen Hurts over under rushing yards, like, does the game script affect? Let me rephrase. I think the game script affect let me rephrase i think the game script could affect that for instance if the eagles are losing and trailing and forced to come back obviously he's

gonna have to throw more but i feel like at that point hertz will be more willing to sacrifice his body to not worry about the shoulder injury and to run the football more if need be so that would not only i agree with you i like that under it's actually creeped up a bit which is kind of surprising i think that's indicative that maybets is a little healthier than we thought. But I agree with you. I like the under. Ole would be a little bit worried if they were trailing. Finally, speaking of, I'm going to go three overs.

Just what a chalk donkey I am. A.J. Brown over. Receiving guard 71.5, minus 121. A.J. Brown, as we all know, I hold dear to my heart. Very dear. Arthur Juan Brown. He got it the first time until Thursday. He finally got it. He got it.

That's why they asked me twice. A.J. Brown, wide receiver one in my heart. Love him more than probably 60% of my family. And he's going to have a big game in this one. Thankfully that number's creeped up since the last time you used that joke. So that's good. Creeped down, right?

A.J. Brown, over 71.5 receiving yards. He's been really, really quiet the last few weeks in the playoffs. He had a little bit of a squeaky wheel factor going on early in the playoffs. I think they get him involved often and early. And they throw down the field. Hurts connects. Especially if the Chiefs load up to try to stop the run.

A.J. Brown, the perfect guy to take the top off, force that defense to back up, and then you can start to work that ground game and get it going. Any more yardage props for you fellas? That's all I got. I came with three, Rich. What do you have? That's all I asked. I was told to bring three. I bet Brinson's got a bonus one. What does possible sound like for your business?

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Don't, actually. Why would you suggest that I have a bonus one if I was told to break three? That's very rude of you. Brinson never does extra credit. Alright, we're going to take a break. When we come back, we'll talk some news around the NFLfl there's always something happening when it comes to professional football and we'll fill you with what's going on around the league coming up next here on the pixies podcast show on cbs sports hq

thank you katie box welcome back to the pix 6 Podcast show presented by Expedia Made to Travel. Here at the Super Bowl, Will Brinson, John Breacher, Ryan Wilson. Feeling good out here. It feels great. There's some tunes in the other. If you hear the tunes in the background, but there's a lot of music. Just spotted Kenny White showed up. I mean, my goodness gracious.

What a time to be alive. Eric Casillas is dancing right off camera here. I mean, look at this guy. And I think I hear a marching band right now, which is great background music. Jason Day's 100 through 1. We got to keep the dream alive for this little parlay I got going. Let's talk some touchdown scores, though. Anytime touchdown score.

As in, you just got a score touchdown at any point in the Super Bowl. You get various odds, of course, for the players. Travis Kelsey, probably the favorite. I believe Jason Jalen Hurts, the next guy up. Who you got, Breach? I want to quickly, mine is going to be Joe Burrow. Go ahead. That's not funny.

It's insulting. As you can see on the screen right now, Juju Smith-Schuster, 2-1. Jared McKinnon around the same. MVS, similar. Kadarius Toney, a lot of buzz for him, Breach. On Thursday, specifically coming for the Chiefs, there's a report that there's a lot of stuff in the Chiefs' offensive package for Kadarius Toney. Are you going Toney or are you going somebody else?

Well, we're looking at these odds right here. I love the two quarterbacks. I know that Jalen Hurts, maybe not great value. But, look, we saw the numbers earlier. 15 rushing touchdowns this year including the postseason which is the most by a quarterback in NFL history they get anywhere near the end zone once they're in the red zone Jalen Hurts is a threat to scamper in and score a touchdown and then obviously you get much better odds with Patrick Mahomes at plus 325 and it's the same

thing Patrick Mahomes they get inside the 10 yard line he'll take off and he will run in he has no problem doing that and like we were saying earlier the Eagles might not be looking out for him to take off because of his ankles. So it might be there. So I like Hurts and Mahomes. Sorry I took two, Wilson. I'm sorry that I made that cheap shot joke about Joe Burrow and the Bengals because I'm a Steelers homer, and my team is now worse than the Bengals somehow. And you're stuck with Kenny Pickett for the next 20 years.

And you just apologized on air. I can clip it. I'm going to put it in my Twitter feed. This is amazing. So I'm going to go with Isaiah Pacheco. I mentioned in the last segment, Jerick McKinnon, the over 19 and a half. Pacheco, I think, is going to do most of the damage.

We know that Clyde Edwards-Alaire is going to be active, but who knows what role he plays because he's now at least third on the depth chart at running back. So I'm going Isaiah Pacheco. I think he's going to get plenty of opportunities. I have Patrick Holmes going over the passing number we talked about. But I think there's a really good chance that Pacheco scores.

I think there will be a lot of points in this game. There's going to be opportunities for him to get the ball and pick it to the end zone. And that's when you get six points, Reach. Nobody loves getting adorable when it comes to touchdown props more than yours truly. It's really like one of my passions in life to just, I can't just take the easy way out. Got to get cute.

Got to go find somebody with some big odds to hit a home run. We ain't doing that. It's the Super Bowl. We're going to go meat and potatoes. And Travis Kelsey. Playing a conservative. This is not conservative. This is a layup.

Look at this Chiefs roster. MBS, Marcus Valdez-Skateley, and Kadarius Toney are their top two receiving options outside of Kelsey, who, as we saw from the package that Katie Box broke down, second all-time in every single receiving yardage or touchdown stat in postseason history behind only the GOAT, Jerry Rice. Travis Kelsey is going to score a touchdown in this game, and it's only minus 114 to get

Travis Kelsey to score a touchdown. But we don't stop there. No, no, no, no, no. And there's more! But wait, there is more. But wait, I see. Have a little Billy Mays vibe going on. Yeah, you're selling some vinyl siding. What else do you got? But wait, there's more. We're going some vinyl siding. What else do you got? But wait, there's more. We're going Travis Kelsey, two touchdown scores.

What? Plus 490. 5-1, two touchdown scores. But wait, there's even more. There can't be more. There can't be. There can't be. This is impossible. There's always money in the banana stand, guys.

And we're going Travis Kelsey, three touchdowns. What? Okay. Now somebody do a drug test. please don't uh 23 to 1 travis scousey three touchdown scores i i can follow that but not with quite the the vim and vigor i'll go multiple touchdown scores with my guy mvs marquez valdez scantley because i have scoring two touchdowns and all the packages we talked about that'll be airing on super bowl sunday so that's plus 1600 or at least it was the last time I saw it.

Not quite as insane as what Princeton has cooking over there, but it is certainly out there to think that MVS could be a game-changer. Had the big game in the AFC Championship game. They signed him to a pretty big deal, and he wasn't exactly what they wanted week in and week out, but stood up on the biggest stage breach. So MVS, at least two touchdowns. Well, and it's not crazy to think about the fact that if it plays out with the AFC Championship

where the Bengals were so focused on Travis Kelsey, they just completely forgot that Marquez, Baldas, and Scantling existed. And so, if the Eagles do something similar, then certainly that could happen. My multiple touchdown bet is similar to Brenton's that I'm taking the same guy who I had for my anytime

touchdown. That is Jalen Hurts. Look, he's just scored one touchdown. Why not just score two touchdowns? And guess what? He played 15 games this year. He scored multiple touchdowns three times. So this happened with some regularity during the regular season. And I think he's going to be out trying to make some big plays in the Super Bowl.

And I think he's going to get multiple touchdowns, and it's plus 575. What do you think of that, Brenton? I love it. This is a guy in Jalen Hurts that when the Eagles get down near the goal line, when it's time to get deep into the red zone, when you need to score, they don't care if it's from the three-yard line, the five-yard line, the two-yard line. They are going to sneak him and run him up the middle.

Jalen Hurts in there, I like it a lot. Not as much as my Kelsey pick, but I like it a lot. Now, the best sweat. There are two best sweats in all of gambling. And it's not even close. One is the first-round leader bet. You bet on a golf tournament. You bet on the first-round leader.

You sweat so hard when that guy gets in the first. You got to watch like 50 golfers come through and threaten to beat him. But the other one that's more like NFLfl-ish which it's literally nfl-ish but it's instant gratification the first touchdown score when you hit that first touchdown score and your guy gets in the end zone first before anyone else it is true gambling bliss so it's a reverse the reverse golf sweat it is it is a reverse golf sweat it It is. It is a reverse golf sweat. There you go. It's not the long sweat. It's the short sweat. We have the odds up here.

Travis Kelsey, you can see five plus 550, the odds on favorite. Jalen Hurts plus 575. Miles Sanders. Look, I'll be honest. That many people shouldn't be under 20 to one. Some of those odds are terrible. Noah Gray, 19 to one. Come on.

Throw us a bone here. Who you got, Breach? All right. My favorite. I'm going to pull the Princeton here with the last one, the meat and potatoes. I'm taking Travis Kelsey to score the first touchdown. We have seen the numbers. Look, he has the second most postseason touchdowns in NFL history. Him and Patrick Bones have combined for the second most of any QB receiving duo.

So it's just Travis Kelsey. I'm not going to overthink this one. There's no explanation, really. And that's pretty much the case with mine, who was just behind Travis Kelsey on the leaderboard that we just saw to keep the golf reference going, Jalen Hurts. Still 575 on the plus side. We know all the things that he can do.

We know he's banged up. But as Brinson just noted, he can run a sneak from one, two, three yards out. Just as long as he doesn't do it from 50 and a half yards out. Anything short of that, I think it's a possibility. So my favorite, Brinson, is Jalen Hurts to score a touchdown first. I like it. Look, you know, I already banged the table for Travis Kelsey, right? Multiple touchdown scores.

I have to go with the meat and potatoes and Travis Kelsey. And look, I mean, traditionally speaking, I like to look at 30 to 1 or longer to what really 20-1 or longer for first touchdown scores. I think that's where you want to find the market because you get the most value. You don't have to, like, if you put a full unit on Travis Kelsey to be the first touchdown scorer and the Eagles score first, you're banged, right? So you may want to find longer shots. In this case, with this market, this high-profile game, the odds have shrunk dramatically where everybody's basically 20-1.

So it makes a lot of sense to go back to the top of the board and hit Travis Kelsey at plus, what, 550? That's pretty good odds for the guy who is going to be the preeminent red zone target for the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that scripts games really, really well. Andy Reid coming off a bye. Andy Reid off the bye. Andy Reid off the bye. How dare you not dance, Wilson I apologize

He doesn't remember the song Even though it's only four words There's a complex, buddy As far as a longer shot I'm going to pitch mine first because I know this is the same as Breach's The value pick, if you will There's no really actually long shots on there I like Kenneth Gainwell

He was 15-1 It looks like he's 12-1 Value pick, if you will. Yeah, sorry, value pick. There's no really actually long shots on there. I like Kenneth Gainwell. He was 15-1. It looks like he's 12-1 on our board, so maybe me mentioning him just in producer Jack's ear over the phone shrunk his odds down. I think Gainwell, again, I love Gainwell props this week. I love Gainwell to score a touchdown. I love Gainwell first touchdown scorer. 12-1 is fine.

15-1, very good. Kenneth Gainwell for me. Breach, you got anybody different? Well, this is classic Brinson didn't do his homework, and now he's copying all my answers. Travis Kelsey, favorite for the first TD. Kenneth Gainwell was my value. And by the way, the teacher grades his paper first and thinks you cheated.

Yeah, exactly. And I get the F, and I get kicked out as Spike, the giant football, sits down and watches us. You know, here is, I'm just going to go to my long shot. I'm going to ignore Brinson's Kenneth Gainwell. I'm going to go with Boston Scott at plus 2,100. And you know what? That's your value?

No, that is my value and my long shot. My value was Kenneth Gainwell, but I didn't want to copy off Brinson who copied off me. So I'm going to just shoot and go straight to Boston Scott. Here's the thing. He is plus 2,100 even though he has scored a touchdown in three straight playoff games. So he is on a streak. Sirianni loves to get that guy the ball inside the 10-yard

line. And so if it's not a Jalen Hurts QB sneak, I like Boston Scott's chances. They love giving the ball down there. No, I like that too. I like both your picks there. I'm going to go with Juju Smith-Schuster at plus 1,000 the last time I saw it. We'll see what it is here in a second on the graphic. But here's the thing about Juju Smith-Schuster, and he sort of made last time I saw it. We'll see what it is here in a second on the graphic. But here's the thing about Juju Smith-Schuster,

and he sort of made himself famous for doing this in Pittsburgh early in his career near the goal line, shovel pass. We see Travis Kelsey do that all the time with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. If they're finding a way to shut down Travis Kelsey, then that could be an opportunity for Juju Smith-Schuster to get a two-yard shovel pass and run into the end zone between the tackles. And that feels certainly very doable, and I like the 10-to-1, Breach. Classic Wilson picking former Steeler to bet on. Not surprised at all.

That checks out. Wilson, a traditional homer, well-known homer. Breach, what about your long shot to score? I'll do the long shot if you want, Breach. Boston Sky. Brenton was furiously checking leaderboard while you were talking about the long shot. No, no, actually I was trying to text producer Jack to let him know that I'm changing my long shot pick. Oh, that also checks out.

Yeah, that's right. Mid-show. I haven't thrown one curveball at the producers, an actual curveball at the producers yet this week. So I'm going to do it right now. Yeah, go for it. This is off the radar. No one's looking for this. But this is so Andy Reid-esque to get the ball

to an unexpected guy in a jumbo package. You look at Blake Bell, the tight end. The Belldozer if you will, as you do. I will. Coming out of Oklahoma and I will too. The Belldozer coming out of Oklahoma. 60-1 to score the Chiefs' first touchdown. So it doesn't even have to be the first

touchdown. Eagles can score five times and as long as Blake Bell scores the first Chiefs touchdown, this is classic Andy Reid. You get down near the goal line, you line up three tight ends, you have all the attention, all the focus on Travis Kelsey, and you leak out Noah Gray or Blake Bell 60-1.

First Chiefs touchdown. I love it. That's juicy. I should have gone first because now I'm... Oh, do you have Blake Bell? Is he still in the field now? No, no. This won't be quite as exciting, but there is some excitement factor in this thing here, Preach. Patrick Mahomes. Oh! Because, again, the ankle.

Now, I have him going over the 294.5 that we've talked about already. But, again, we saw it against the Bengals during the regular season. I think he did the jump over the line and scored the touchdown, and the ball got knocked out, and it was bang, bang. But those are the type of things that Patrick Mahomes do. We talked earlier about Jalen Hurts toughening it out, especially if they're down late and taking opportunities to run the football even though he has a shoulder injury. I think there's exactly no reason that Patrick Mahomes won't do the same thing if the game's on the line.

Breacher saw that a few years ago in the Buccaneers Chiefs Super Bowl where he was trying to do everything from all sorts of angles because he was getting killed with the lack of the offensive line there. I think the offensive line here is better, obviously, this week. But I think with the ankle, there's an opportunity for a short yardage touchdown. I like the plus 1,600. I will say the one thing with that, though, Wilson, which I feel like it would have to be a three- or five-yard run because it feels like with the ankle, if they're at the one-yard uh andy reed might think twice before calling for the

sneak because a lot of times you'll have travis kelsey line up under center and then he'll sneak in or juju shovel did you know that across ontario utility damage happens 19 times a day that's over 4222 incidents a year don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks before you break ground make it a point to request a locate. It's not just the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right.

Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. A juju shovel pass. So you're just win, win, win. He's setting himself up. I dig it. All right. All we're doing is win, win, win out's what we that's what the show does win win win no matter what what what we're gonna take a break when we come back more super bowl props to propaganda here on the pick six podcast show on c Sports HQ next.

Welcome back to the Big Six Podcast show presented by Expedia. Made to travel. We're here on CBS Sports HQ live in Phoenix, Arizona, the home of Super Bowl 57. Will Brinson, John Breach, Ryan Wilson wrapping up our next to last show here

Live from Cactusland Having a good time, gonna do some fun quirky props Got a little bit of time left, let's dive right in What's your first Quirky prop, pal? I have a great quirky Prop to start off with, look we have two

Brothers playing against each other in a Super Bowl for the first time We have one team that is from the city of brotherly love. So, of course, I have a brother prop. This is Jason Kelsey, total snaps played, versus Travis Kelsey, receiving yards with Jason's

number at plus six and a half. What? You're going to need some Brinson game theory to solve this one. Are you guys ready? So I have to explain this without it being too confusing. Do you need a pen to do the math here? There's no way you can do this in your head. The Eagles ran an average of 67 plays per game on offense. So if they do that in the Super Bowl, that puts Jason Kelsey at 67 plays. And in that case, Travis Kelsey would have 74 yards to win the prop.

Well, I don't think he's going to win the prop. I think Jason Kelsey is going to win the prop and that he is going to be within six and a half with his snaps played versus his brother's receiving yards. I think the Eagles defense is going to slow Travis down and hold him under 75 yards. Brinson, I love that producer Austin says we have five minutes in the second and Brinson talks, Breach talks for four minutes. It takes five minutes to explain my prop. So my quickly, my quirky prop number one, total players attempted to pass.

This is pretty easy math. Breach two is an easy one. Two and a half is the over is the number., total players attempting to pass. This is pretty easy math. Reach two is an easy one. Two and a half is the number. I'm going over that number. I love it. That's one of my favorites. Brinson's all about trick plays, and especially with Andy Reid. So I'm going over two and a half.

And if quarterback gets injured, backup comes in. Conventional over two and a half as well. That's right. I'm a huge fan of the overpassing attempts. Players who attempt a passing attempt, because we saw Tom Brady try to catch a pass. We've seen in the Eagles. Oh, wow.

That was terrible. Horrible. And then in that same game, the Eagles, there were four guys in that game because we had Trey Burton threw one to Nick Foles. And in last year's Super Bowl, which Brinton doesn't think is the top 15 of all time, Joe Mixon threw a touchdown pass. It's not that I don't think it's the top 15 of all time. It's simply that I'm in charge of ranking the Super Bowls,

and I ranked it outside the top 15. So really there's nothing you can do about it. It's just not one. And God just shoots your notes away. That's what he thinks of your take. God is a big old fan, it turns out. So I'm going to go, without the use of my notes, I'm going to hope that the producers will throw out my prop on there.

I know one that I have. I have the under 3.5 total yards of Patrick Mahomes' first rush at plus 115. I think Mahomes will go under that number because he has a bum ankle, and they're not going to want to run him, and he's going to slide three yards out from the line of scrimmage. I think Mahomes will go under that number because he has a bum ankle, and they're not going to want to run him, and he's going to slide three yards out from the line of scrimmage. Breach, what's your next one? This feels like Brinson trying to talk himself out of a ticket. This is hilarious.

All right, my next one is the team with the shortest field goal. Brinson's going to love this logic because he's been talking about how Nick Cerrone loves to go on fourth down. So I'm going to go with the Chiefs as the team with the shortest field goal uh the kansas city harrison butker had seven field goals this season of under 30 yards yep uh and so i could see the chiefs maybe trying to 23 25 yard field goal and that will be the shortest in the game okay no i like it so i'm gonna go philadelphia eagles total sacks record in this game the number is three and a half that sounds crazy i'm going over that number they have had three. Total sacks recorded in this game, the number is 3.5. That sounds crazy. I'm going over that number.

They have had three or more sacks in 14 of 19 games, nearly 75%. We know they're going to get after it. We know they have Hassan Reddick, Javon Hargrave, Fletcher Cox. The list goes on and on. Josh Sweat. So I'm going over the number, Brenton, of 3.5 sacks. I am fortunately capable of remembering things, even to my advanced age, and have remembered what my props were despite my notes flying off the set here.

I'm going to say yes. Patrick Mahomes throws a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter. What say you to that, Breach? What's the number? Is that plus money? Minus 115. Okay, that's still good. That's still good.

My next one is will the game be tied after 0-0? I say yes on that. That prop has hit in five of the past eight Super Bowls. And so I do think this game will be tied at some point after 0-0. That is minus 115. It took me a while to get the math. It can't be tied after 0-0 if someone kicked a field goal in the 3-0. I had way too many math props with the Kelsey thing, the tie thing.

All right, I'm going to go the Chiefs call the first time out of the game. Now, it's minus money because the Chiefs have called the first time out in 15 of 19 games, so they have a propensity to do that. And sometimes it's just Andy Reid willing to sacrifice time out early to get the right play call in. I think that's going to be the case here in the most important game of the season. So I'm going the Chiefs call the first time out of the game, minus money, but it happens three out of every four games. I am going to do something that I love to do,

and that is steal content from Pete Prisco and play it off as my own. All right. Pete Prisco gave it out. He said, what's Chris Jones in a car to sack? I love it. I love it. Give me a yes all day. What's the number?

Yes. Minus 110. No, it's actually minus 120. We saw against the Bengals when the Chiefs beat the Bengals. I don't know if you remember that, Rich. They lost. The Chiefs beat the Bengals. I repressed that.

As an edge rusher, think we see him get a sack. Do you have anything else you want to say in the next 15 seconds? Well, I think that this is a great opportunity for Jalen Hurst to have a big game, Breach, and that the kickers are probably the most important part of this game, if I knew what you're going to say. That's not what I wanted you to do, but that's fine. I couldn't agree more.

You actually don't get to say anything else. Make sure to watch and listen, Pick 6 Podcast, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and of course, watch CBS Sports HQ with the devastatingly handsome Chris Hassell every day, live from Phoenix.