Fantasy Football Today - TE Tiers: Trey McBride or Brock Bowers? Do We Like the Mid-Round TEs? (07/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 17, 2025

Bid on Draft-A-Thon items here! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://tiltify.com/@cbs-sports/fft-draftathon-2025⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Vote for Fantasy Football Today in the "Sports" category: https://podcastawards.com/app/signup Which tight end tier do we usually draft from (4:00)? Where is the value? After a brief TE conversation, we move to the news and notes (7:25) with updates on Stefon Diggs and Najee Harris. Then, let's get to Jamey's TE tiers beginning with Tiers 1 and 2 (12:00)! Do we prefer Trey McBride or Brock Bowers? How far back is George Kittle? We make cases for and against all of them ... If you miss out on the elite TEs, how appealing are Tiers 3 and 4 (29:50)? This includes Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Evan Engram and more. Make sure you look at average draft position and find the value in these tiers ... Tiers 5 and 6 (46:00) have the exciting rookies Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren plus veterans like Dalton Kincaid and Tucker Kraft. And we've got even more TEs to talk about ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Shop our store: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠shop.cbssports.com/fantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FFT team on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @FFToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @AdamAizer⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @JameyEisenberg⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @daverichard⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @heathcummingssr⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FFT newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Welcome everybody to the Tight End Tears show here on Fantasy Football today. It is Thursday, July 17th. I'm tired guys. I could not sleep last night. Oh, I slept terribly. I went to bed early and just awful sleep. Well, I was going for like a fantasy football joke here, but we can get into your drama too.

I'm sorry. fantasy football joke here, but we can get into your drama too. Oh, it's all. I'm sorry. I know that this show is really about you and we're just kind of your co-stars. Guys, let me just say as a star of the show, I had a lot of trouble sleeping last night because I just kept flip-flopping. Bowers or McBride? Bowers or McBride? McBride or Bowers? Finkel or Einhorn? And I just don't know. I don't know yet. I think I changed teams to Team Heath here.

I think I'm McBride now, but I don't know. But maybe Jamie could convince me to go. I'm sorry, I think I'm Bowers now. Maybe Jamie can convince me to go back to Team Jamie, which is barely- I think he's had a slip. That tells you what side you really want to go. No, I don't know.

I mean, it's just, oh, they were so close last year. Their metrics were almost identical, but there are a lot of ways to look at it. Do you think Adam practices his material on his family? I think he probably practices in a room by himself. Stands in front of a mirror and says, oh, I got a great flip-flop joke. Let's see how this works.

Yeah, I was holding a flip-flop in my hand while I did it. If you think I'm this bad at delivering and I still practice, that is an insult. Obviously this is my first run at it right now. I should practice. Listen, the delivery is totally different because you started your joke and then Heath also chimed in so that might've thrown you off a little bit.

Like the, hey, Ali, I got this great joke. What do you think if I start the show with, I'm really torn between these two tight ends. Like what if I say, oh, I'm flip flopping or I couldn't sleep, I was torn, you know, and then she just rolls her eyes and does what she probably normally does and just ignores you, but.

No, I don't do that, but maybe, what did you think about the Finkle Einhorn joke in there? Cause that was spontaneous. But that's not really like a flip flop though. No, but it was a Bowers McBride. It was Finkle Einhorn, it was a football joke. Like, did you like me to smile? I mean, like you could have gone Vic or Ryan,

like that would have been funny. So wait, are you saying that that is a football movie, but Jerry Maguire is not? No, it's not a football movie. It has about as much. It has about as much sports in it as Jerry McGuire and neither of their football movies. OK, anyway, welcome to the show.

I like that. We have a Twitter poll up and we'll show it in a little bit before we do that. And the Twitter poll is McBride or Bauer. See how the people are feeling about it. What's your favorite tight end tier, Jamie? One. Yeah. Yeah, sorry favorite tight end tier, Jamie? One? Yeah. Yeah, sorry. Favorite one to draft from? Two.

The kiddle tier. No, I mean, look, I think our, our theory that you came up with is our strategy you came up with many years ago, great or late, is is fantastic. You should have seen, by the way, Heath when Alfredo brought it up. I don't know if it was about tight ends though, was it? I think it was. I think it was, he said, yeah, great or late. He didn't say great or late, he didn't say that.

He didn't name it that. He didn't say the words great or late. He referenced the strategy. I don't think he said great or late, did he? I thought he did say great or late. Oh man, steam would have been coming out of my ears if he had said that, but I don't know. It was in a very favorable mention.

Oh, oh, I thought you meant he took it as it was his. No, no, no, no. Obviously, he would have been doing that as a joke, yeah. Okay, so in light of the last 60 seconds, I think your open's looking pretty good. I tend to, I don't know what tier it's in, but I tend to get a lot of the Nijoku. I dropped a lot of Nijoku and Evan Ingram.

Those are the two titans I draft the most. That would be- I know you didn't ask me, Adam, but I pretty much take Bowers and McBride or I take the joke or a Kelsey. The joke is tier three for Jamie and Ingram's tier four. And I was going to ask you Heath, obviously. All right. So let's show that Twitter poll.

Who do you like better? McBride or Bowers Schaefer voted for McBride two thirds though, for Bowers 1,06767 votes I think I posted this yeah 1104 p.m. last night and yeah I mean 4600 people viewed it and only 1000 votes it's so weird right why would you just click the button yeah just okay it's not hard uh so I bet you'd have more votes if you'd put a uh see results in there and then Heath you would have voted Bowers JamieBride, and we'll talk about that a little bit later, but they are in tier one.

And it's really a question of how early is too early for those guys. And you know, who do you, which running backs, which wide receivers do you draft ahead of them? Before we get into the tiers and some news and notes and update on Naji, on Naji Harris, here's an update on draftathon. We Here's an update on Draftathon. We're up to $3,011. tinyurl.com slash 2025FFT. tinyurl.com slash 2025FFT.

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Podcastawards.com slash app slash sign up. Put in a little bit of information, takes about 30 seconds, and then nominate fantasy football today in the sports category. All right. News and notes, Najee Harris likely to start training camp on the non-football injury list, but not expected to be there for a long time. So hopefully back sooner rather than later. Perhaps an opportunity for Omarion

Hampton to stake some claim into that starting role, but right now it doesn't seem like a long-term thing for Najee, nor does it seem like that for Mike Williams, who has some injury that he sustained in the spring. Wide receiver for the Chargers, he is expected to come off the pup list pretty soon. Second round picks, only three of them have signed. This is about guaranteed money.

Two second round picks received fully guaranteed deals, and every other second round pick probably wants it too or something close to it. That's why it's been slow. But a third one signed yesterday. So the thinking might be that the floodgates will start opening and guys like R.J. Harvey, for example, can be and all the other second round running backs and wide receivers that we care about can be signing their deal soon. Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated thinks that Stefan Diggs is trending toward playing in week one.

He's recovering from a torn ACL. Where do you think you could see Diggs moving into in your rankings? Heath, what do you think the highest you could see Diggs would be? So, yeah, let's say that he starts training camp. I've made this comment a lot about Rushy rice, but let's say that Stefan digs gets through a week of training camp and he's just doing the same thing

that everyone else is, and we're assuming he's going to play week one. I would say it's somewhere. I mentioned the mega tier that runs for me from basically wide receiver 21 to 39. He'd be at the, towards the bottom of that. Okay. And Jamie's got him 42nd. Dave has him 39th right now. Jamie, could you see moving digs up even further than 42nd?

A spot or two, not very much. Jamie, you're still talking about a 32 year old receiver coming off an ACL tear with a passing game that's got a lot of question marks. So, um, I don't want to get overexcited about the report that he's going to be ready. We've kind of been going off that assumption when he showed up to mini camp, you know, and, and, and look like he was trending in that direction.

So he was very good last year. I think he's going to have a lot of solid moments, but we know what this injury has typically been. And for a guy that's at his age, there's still a lot of questions from him. And this is just my memory. I could look it up and if Dave was here, he'd probably look it up. His slot rate was extremely high last year. Right.

Yeah, it was. Dave be like, give me, give me one second. I'll look it up. That's the only other concern that I have is I don't think he's going to play in the slot near as much. And can he still win at his age coming off this injury against number one corners? 46% slot rate for Stefan Diggs last year.

That's very high. The previous two years, it was 31%, which is, yeah, it's slotty. It's, he's in the slot, but 46% is very high. I will say this though, Heath, because I know you keep mentioning it. And I agree It's it seems as if tomorrow Douglas is gonna be that guy

I think if they realize that digs is better for this offense there And we're talking about tomorrow Douglas versus let's say Mack Hollins and being Hollins and Williams on the outside For example, like that's something you can easily see happening Cleveland in no rush to sign Quinn Sean Judkins is another second round pick who hasn't signed and obviously the arrest last week. The commander signed Von Miller and Zach Rosenblatt of the Athletic says that Josh Reynolds seems pretty locked in

as the Jets number two wide receiver. This is the second time we've had a report that may have even been from him, but recently. But Josh Reynolds as wide receiver too for the Jets. It's interesting. Maybe he can get off to a good start or something like that. He's kind of an old receiver. I might put him in the Scott fish bowl queue for round 19.

There you go. So a couple of comments here that new Adam is disrespectful of other sleep habits. That's nothing new. He's had a nightmare in which he was served baked burgers and dino chicken nuggets. Yeah. So what's what happened with you last night? Why couldn't you sleep? Was it McBride and Bowers? had a nightmare in which he was served baked burgers and dino chicken nuggets. Um, yeah. So what's, uh, what happened with you last night? Why couldn't you sleep? Was it McBride and Bowers?

I, it was not, no, I don't have any good reason for it. I'm getting old and some nights you just don't sleep very well. Toss and turn. Yeah. It happens. You still, uh, turn the pillow over. Yeah. The cool side.

I don't do that. Also, um, one or two pillows for you guys? Two. One. Two is weird, two is weird. Why do you need two pillows? I don't like it. All right, Jamie's tears.

He said he likes tier two. That's George Kittle. Guess who's in tier one? It's the top two guys, it's McBride and Bowers. All right, it's easy to put them in tier one. I think it's easy to put Kittle in tier two. It's difficult to say when should McBride and Bowers be taken?

So Jamie, when does it go, when do the bells go off for you? All right, it's tight end time. When would I do it or when do I think it's gonna happen? When would you recommend doing that? I would look for both toward the back end of round two. That is not going to happen though, based on almost every draft I've seen.

Bowers typically comes off the board middle of round two, McBride tends to slide to that spot. I just think like, you said something, I don't remember when it was, maybe it was the Joanne Jennings conversation we were talking about Kittle, that the difference between the top two guys and Kittle based on the points per game last year,

and you were saying, I think you're, I'm gonna paraphrase, but that if those two guys are gonna be drafted in round one or round two, and Kittle's not gonna go till round three or round four. Based on Kittle's performance last year and maybe the bump that he gets without Debo there and IU coming off the pup list, that they have to be significantly better than Kittle. That made me re-evaluate this a little bit. I don't know if they're going to be that significantly better than Kittle because last year was,

in some cases, maybe the best best I will see and I do think that McBride is going to get more touchdown opportunities. I'm a little concerned about Bowers just because of the changes in the offense, not to a degree that I'm scared of him to draft him. I wouldn't draft him as high as he's going in ADP, but I think that 15 to 16 points per game, which is what they were last year. They're just a little shy of 16. And Kittle was just, you know, decimal points better than them. I don't see that bump up to

where Kelsey was at, you know, 20 points per game, 18 points per game. I think that's just a huge ask in their respective offenses. So I put both guys at the start of round three, whereas where I have them. And again, I don't think I'll be getting Bowers there. And Kittle is back in around round three, round four for me. I think the interesting thing, like thinking less looking at all three of these guys, as if they're just what they've been in terms of their numbers and what they could be. When I look at it, I see there's we've talked about it a ton.

There's probably positive touchdown regression coming for Trey McBride. If not, he's going to have one of the lowest touchdown rates that anyone's ever had in their entire career because that was insane last year. He should score more touchdowns. We shouldn't be surprised if he scores a little more in terms of fantasy points because of that. Bauer's touchdown regression is less obvious, but I still think it likely comes because he had a very, very low touchdown rate. He has a better offensive coordinator whose teams generally score more touchdowns, and he has a significant quarterback upgrade. With Kittle, I think you could look at the situation with Ayuk's question marks at health and Debo being gone and think his targets could go up.

At the same time, he's 31, he'll turn 32 in the middle of the season. And last year was his best reception total since 2019, his best yardage total since 2018, and the second best touchdown total of his career. His efficiency in terms of yards per target was the best of his career. His catch rate was his best since 2020. Like that was, George Kittle just had one of his best seasons at 30 and 31 years old. And so in my projections process, I actually project a little bit of negative progression

in terms of efficiency for Kittle. And that's where I get a little bit bigger gap. I think I've got my bride similar to what he did last year, which puts them at the end of round two for me. I have Bowers improving on what he did last year because of those surroundings that have gotten better. And I have kettle a little worse than last year. It's funny how you think the surroundings have gotten better. And I think Jamie would make the case for Bowers that the surroundings

have gotten worse, probably I think Jamie would make the case for Bowers that the surroundings have gotten worse, probably because of past volume. I will find out if I am right about that take after we take a commercial break. We'll get Jamie's thoughts on that. Did things actually get worse for Brock Bowers? And maybe this is this is how people could determine who they like. Bowers or McBride. It's certainly a big part of it for me. I also have a cautionary tale about George Kittle and those targets. And we'll be right back after this to talk about tiers

one and two, some more on FFT. No frills delivers. Get groceries delivered to your door from no frills with PC express. Shop online and get $15 in PC optimum points on your first five orders. Shop now at nofrills.ca. Now streaming... When people go missing, I get hired to help find them. When lives are on the line... Coulter, please find my daughter. He's the man for the job.

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I made a promise. I would never stop looking. In Tracker, all episodes now streaming on Paramount Plus and returning CBS fall. So Jamie, am I right in saying that you think the situation got worse for Brock Bowers because they were fourth in pass attempts last year? I don't wanna use the word worse because I think there's something he said which kind

of gets overlooked a little bit. The quarterback situation got better. The coaching got better, you know, and so those things matter. But yes, in terms of how are things going to be distributed, the biggest thing for me is not necessarily the, you said it, that is the biggest thing is the run game, you know, so the pass volume is going to come down. And if the run game is successful, especially hoping for more touchdowns for Bowers, I think eight is probably a safe number. He scored five last year. So can he get to eight? I would be very surprised if he's not close to that. So five to eight is probably the range. I would go more toward the optimistic side and say that eight is a good number. I just don't see the targets being the range. I would go more toward the optimistic side and say that's, you know, AIDIS is a good number. I just don't see the targets being the same and he's gonna be a monster.

Look, whenever you see rookie seasons like this, this is what's so disappointing about Kyle Pitts, for example. You see rookie seasons like this, I'm not talking about just tight ends, just, you know, pass catchers. You tend to see them build off of it, especially when you're an elite prospect. And I don't think he's going to disappear by any stretch look Jack Besh and Thornton and whatever else they have, you know, Jacobi Meyer still being there like those guys aren't you know Taking targets away from Brock Bowers to a significant margin, but they are better as a group around him based on what they had a year ago You know you lose Devante Adams and it was Trey Thornton and just a bunch of guys So if these rookies can be somewhat

of significant playmakers, it's just a matter of the volume. And again, when I say I'm downgrading, they're back to back still. I don't think that what we saw last year is going to be that much difference from a decimal point standpoint, that that's how different these guys were. It's just a matter of what's the ceiling for both of them. And so yes, like he'd said about McBride, it'd be very surprising if a guy that was top three in red zone opportunities at his position, 21 red zone targets last year, doesn't score more touchdowns.

They made such an effort last year to do that. I think that carries over to some degree, not clearly the emphasis on it because he didn't have one, but I do think that they do a better job of getting him in the end zone. So he's probably like a five touchdown guy. Like I don't think that they do a better job of getting him in the end zone. So he's probably like a five touchdown guy. Like I don't think they were looking at a 10 touchdown guy for McBride.

That would be amazing. I think he, that's the one situation where you could say, okay, who can get to those Kittle numbers? I think if McBride gets 10 touchdowns on top of the numbers that he's getting because his offense didn't really change very much, like that could, that could shatter the position potential. So I think McBride stealing to me this year is a little bit higher. Bowers is right behind him. And then the only thing I'll disagree with on Kittle is that we've seen this before.

We've seen this narrative before. It's played out. Whenever somebody's been missing from this offense, his numbers have just been that much better. I don't have it in front of me. I can look it up if you want to. But there's no Debo. There's potentially no Ayuk.

We don't know the Jennings situation right now. This is a guy that Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan lean on when these situations arise. But there's no Debo, there's potentially no IU, we don't know the Jennings situation right now. This is a guy that Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan lean on when these situations arise. And now we're here again, you know, so yes, McCaffrey's back and you know, Pierce Hall may be a big part of this and all these things and yet his efficiency may may come down a bit. But what are the targets go up? Well, what if we get more chances for him?

So the thing is with Kittle, I mean, he's the most efficient tight end in football, basically, right. And his ADOT has even gone up the last couple years and he still, Heath, you mentioned his catch rate. Usually ADOT goes up, catch rate goes down. Well, his catch rate and his Yak is still incredible. His explosive play rate has been the highest it's been in two years. And I think Purdy has a lot to do with that. Purdy looks for him in the end zone a little bit more, so the touchdowns have been a little bit better. But I do want to say with Kittle, it's like, yeah, you can is is going to probably start on Pup.

Debo is gone. But McCaffrey is back. And McCaffrey is an 80 target guy. The last time we saw him play a healthy season with San Francisco. And Kittle was like a 90 target guy that year. So in the last in the last five games. well, okay, the last 10 weeks of 2022 after the McCaffrey trade, McCaffrey plays a game against Kansas City, barely plays. 10 weeks after that, there were five games where McCaffrey, Iyuk, Debo, and Kittle were all healthy. Kittle's target share was less than 14%. Then in 2023, he had a good year,

but it was one of the worst years of his career, but still good, but it was like 13, how many PPR fantasy points per game for Kittle that year in the 13 range? But look at the end of the season when Purdy took over. No, that was a Purdy year. That was 23. That was 2023. He was, he was tied in seven per game. He had 90 targets in 16 games and they threw for 4,600 yards and 33 touchdowns. But you had Ayuk with 105 targets, Kittle with 90, Debo with 89, McCaffrey

with 83. So I just, yeah, go ahead. I don't think, and this may end up being wrong, but I don't think Kit, there's any reason to really look at Kittle's situation this year in terms of his target competition as different from last year. Well, McCaffrey though is a big deal. No, I think it all balances out. Seven games I guess the- Seven games of Iyuk. You got 11 games of Pearsoul. Devo played 15 games, but only had 81 targets.

Yeah. And McCaffrey only played four. So I think McCaffrey likely takes the 81 targets that Devo had. Iyuk probably plays about as much as he did last year. I think it's just a similar situation to what it was last year. And he got 94 targets. And George Kittle, when he's got 94 targets, is definitely good enough to be the top three tight end. Yeah. Oh yeah. And then you've got, but you do have Jennings and Pierce also,

right. I just wanted to, when everyone was healthy in 2022 and 2023, we were looking at a target problem for George Kittle. And we went into last year, I went into last year going, this guy's declined in points per game, three straight years. And I was a little nervous about him because he's getting up there in age, still a great tight end. I didn't think he was going to get a lot of targets. By the way, two years ago, they were last in the NFL in pass attempts when they had a healthy McCaffrey.

So I think there are red flags for Kittle, but I still draft him all the time in round four, because he's George Kittle and he does not need a lot of targets. However, in terms of tiers in full PPR, McBride and Bowers, what are your projections, Heath? They should have a significant edge in catches over Kittle, I would think. Oh yeah, well, and I'm not really projecting a decrease and you should do your Chip Kelly research after I say this,

but because it's extensive cause it's extensive. It's wonderful. Um, I, I have Kittle at 97 targets. So three more than he had last year, but it's not, I mean, it's projecting a full season. So it's a little lower. Um, and I've got Bowers and McBride still at 150. Okay. So Chip Kelly is, has a great track record, I think. 2013 to 2016, he was a head coach.

He took over an Eagles team that was 25th in points per game in 2012. They had pretty similar personnel and they went up to second in points per game. They were very run heavy the first year. Michael Vick and Nick Foles were their quarterbacks. Vick played seven games. 2014, the Eagles were sixth in points

per game with Mark Sanchez playing nine games and Nick Foles in eight games. And it was a 16 game season. There's some overlap there. 2015, they were 18th in points per game with mostly Sam Bradford. Their best receivers were Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz. DeMarco Murray was their running back. He got hurt. Ryan Matthews played too. They had bad players. They were 18th in points per game. They were sixth in pass attempts per game. 2016, he takes over the 49ers. They were dead last in scoring the year before.

They increased to 23rd in points per game. Their leading receiver was Jeremy Curley. Their quarterbacks were Colin Kaepernick for 12 games and Blaine Gabbard for six games. So he does have a little bit of run heaviness. His teams, his four teams were 27th in pass attempts per game, then fifth, then sixth, then 29th. And he never had a good quarterback, never had a good passer really. Like maybe Vic was good for those seven games. I don't know that year. But I think that's an exceptional track

record. Big improvement in Philadelphia, big improvement in San Francisco in terms of points per game. And you could argue Gino Smith is the best passer that he's had in the NFL. So there's that. Let me just say why I swapped to Bowers from McBride. And I think this is important when we talk about tiers. You're looking at 150 targets for Heath for these guys.

Jamie thinks that targets are going down for Bowers. What do you think? Give me targets for Bowers and McBride, Jamie. What do you think? What was McBride's targets last year? It was like 147 was his pace or something like that. I was gonna say like 145 to 135. Okay, so in the 145-ish range maybe for these,

you think same thing for Bowers? I think both were over 115 in terms of pace pace McBride had 147 in 16 games. He was 153 and okay, so so he's in the 150 range Jamie's in the 140 145 range. Is that fair? Yeah, I would say 145 for McBride like 130 for Bowers. 130 for Bowers. Okay, that's big. That's significant. They so far have not been anything like Kelsey and Kittle

in terms of efficiency, yards per target, yards per catch, yards per outrun. And that's, I think what you were referring to is something I said in a previous show. I think that's what I was saying. If people are drafting McBride and Bowers based on what they did last year and they're drafting them in the second round,

I do think they need to do better than they did last year. And it could be just as simple as touchdowns. But I don't think 15.5 PPR fantasy points per game, in my opinion, is worth a second round pick. Certainly not ahead of a guy like AJ Brown or Derrick Henry or something like that. Maybe you could say ahead of Lad McConkey or chase Brown or something like that. But I think they need to be better. I am more hopeful that Bowers can can increase his efficiency because he did that as a rookie. Whereas McBride, it's your he's been in the league three years. He's been a starting tight end for a year and a half.

I think he might be what he is. I think Bowers is a better athlete and could average more yards per catch, more yards per target, more yards per outrun. And that's why I think I'm team Bowers now over McBride. Heath, what do you think about that logic? Uh, yeah, I, I am more optimistic that Bowers can produce elite efficiency at some point in his career. And I think that there's more, I think the Chip Kelly,

Gino Smith thing makes it more likely that his efficiency increases this year. The other thing we haven't talked about yet, and we probably all have different opinions on Marvin Harrison. Yeah. But I think there's a bigger risk that Marvin Harrison cuts into Trey McBride's target share this year than any of the additions in Las Vegas. Yeah, I would agree with that. But I also would say that the run game is going to be significantly better

for the Raiders and that's not changing for the Cardinals. Yeah, I asked that was another reason why I couldn't sleep, because I said, if Marvin Harrison has a really good year, does that mean that Trey McBride gets worse? Or does that mean that Kyler Murray is the most underrated quarterback in fantasy right now? You know the thing you say about Jared Goff? We like all his players but we are drafting Goff as QB 18. Well we're drafting Kyler as like QB 12-ish. He rushes for 500 yards every year, says he wants to run more. He's got a history of being like on pace for 4,500 passing yards. He might be a steal.

I know it's not not part of the tight end tiers, but do you guys think, do you think Marvin Harrison can have a big year finish as a top 12 tight end and Trey McBride can warrant a pick at the two, three turn, let's say? Yes. Not if Kyler Murray runs for. Okay. It's going to be, if Kyler is going to take that leap, it's going to be because of the touchdowns because if Harrison's getting from let's say 8 to 10 and McBride's going let's

say from 2 to 6, like that's where he benefits. Okay. All right. So that's that's tiers one and two unless there's anything you guys want to say about Kittle that we haven't covered. Okay. So that's tiers one and tiers two, and tier two, sorry, that's tiers one and two.

Let's move on to tiers three and four. And tier three has Sam Laporta, David Najoku, Travis Kelsey, and TJ Hockenson. Tier four has Evan Ingram and Mark Andrews. Those guys could not be more different. Polar opposites as players as fantasy options, Ingram and Andrews. But Tier 3 is Laporta, N'Joku, Kelsey and Hawkinson. Tier 4 is Ingram and Andrews. Jamie, what's the difference between Laporta and N'Joku, Kelsey, Hawkinson and Ingram and Andrews?

Well, there are more questions with Ingram and Andrews, obviously, you know, with Ingram, it's the change of teams and how will he perform in Sean Payton's offense, which could be great. Could be absolutely fantastic for him. And Vonex could make him, you know, easily second on the team in targets. And the joker role that we keep hearing about

could be for Ingram. And again, he's had, you know, the opportunities to, you know, show himself and has proven to be successful at times throughout his career, early with the Giants, first year with Jacksonville. I think he'll be a very solid fantasy tight end, but I don't think he has the same upside as the guys in tier three. The thing about tier three is this is the group of tight ends I think that typically sways how this position goes.

These are the group of guys, the mid-round tight ends that we always say, Oh, they could be awesome. And then they let us down more times than not. I feel more comfortable about this group. Maybe so than any other tight ends in this range that we've talked about before, you know, Kelsey was so bad last year and still was 12.2 PPR points per game. The joke of when he's had, you know, a capable quarterback, um, and that's saying something because we're talking about Joe Flacco and James Winston. He's been potentially a superstar. Hawkinson pre ACL was fantastic. Can you get back to that level? And obviously Laporta, you know, depending on how you feel about the Detroit offense is going to probably sway how you feel about him in terms of where he goes in this tier.

But I'd be shocked if he's not the fourth tight end off the board. And I think he's going to pick off where he pick up where he ended last year, as opposed to the way he started where he was much more of a factor in the red zone. So, uh, for me, those guys are all. Capable top five calibered tight ends. The guys in two, three, I have found the point where Jamie and I have the most disagreement it's the tight end position after the first three tears. Um, I agree completely. I I I'm lower on La Porta,

but he's definitely still in that same tier. I think everything he said about those guys is right. What I would say is if I don't get a tier three guy, I'm probably, I'm not, I'm definitely not taking a tight end before round 10. Um, Tier three for Jamie is the Porta, Nijoku, Kelsey, and Hockinson. Well, I, I, I agree with that. Oh, that's your tier three too. That's your tier three also. What I'm saying is after that and mostly it's just,

I've probably talked enough about how much I don't like Evan Ingram. I don't think so. You don't think so? No. Okay. He's like one of the least efficient plays in football has been targeting Evan Ingram. He was absolutely awful last year. And the year before he was very good because of a high target volume, but we talked about that all last off season.

How that wasn't going to happen again because it was only because the other, the wide receivers got hurt. And it was Doug Peterson's offense, which he's not in anymore. One of the things I've talked about is how rare it is to have a team that throws to their running backs a lot and their tight ends a lot. And for Sean Payton's either going to have to change a lot and not target the running backs as much for Evan Ingram to be good because he's not the type of guy that is going to do what George Kittle does or even close. Is he calling you right now?

He needs eight targets per game to be a low end tight end one. Okay. He and, you know, he and the joke who actually had very similar seasons. They were both awful. The joke who needs to bet. I mean, can we talk about how bad in the joke whose numbers were last year? Holy cow. Let me get his 17 pace 17 game pace. 150 targets, 780 yards. So these two guys, Ingram and Njoku, were two of the worst in football.

And so were Kelsey and Ferguson. Those are four guys who just had horrible stats. For Njoku and Ingram, it was a very low YAC. And that's a stat that tends to bounce back unless the ADOT changes. Go ahead. The difference is that that has not been the case for David Njoku's almost entire career.

Yeah. And that has been the case for Ingram's and Ingram's two years older and Ingram's going to a new team where the target share is not as likely to continue as it does for Njoku. So when you look at tier three, Jamie Laporta,, Nijoku, Kelsey, and Hawkinson, would you say you're excited to draft this tier?

Because let me tell you something, last year, I think maybe tier three may have been something like, I'm looking at Fantasy Pros ADP, Kincaid, Kittle, Pitts, Ingram. They were tied. That's okay. It's always this group.

Right, well we've got, we've got three horrible busts in there and George Kittle. But you said, I think you said you're more excited or you feel better about this group than you have in years past. So the Porta, Njoku, Kelsey, Hawkinson, you feel good about this group? This has typically been the range where we start to prop up

guys like Kincaid and Pitts and OJ Howard and you know, the guys that we're coming off of either strong finishes or decent seasons the year before and we're hoping that they're going to take that next step but they're not as good as the guys that are typically going ahead of them which has always been Kelsey or Andrews or Jimmy Graham or those type of guys, you know, so it's it's usually been an unproven group. These guys really are proven. Even Laporta going into year three, you know what you're getting at this point, at least

I hope. A touchdown-dependent guy and a very prolific offense. I think really the two that scare me the most would be Nijoku and Hockenson. Nijoku is mostly because of the quarterback situation. Because again, if you say that they're going away from flacko or he doesn't start the season as the starter, I'm going to be a little bit more concerned. Now it may work out fine because of Stefanski's offense and Sanders may lean on him or Gabriel may lean on him wherever the quarterback is, you know, can he pick it?

But similar Jerry Judy, like I'm very much more inclined to be excited about David Njoku if it's Joe Flacco and Hawkinson, we just don't know where he's at from his recovery because he had some good moments when he came back last year. It just wasn't great. And now you have a quarterback change. He could benefit if there's a suspension for Jordan Addison. He could really struggle if Addison's there and Jefferson's doing what he does. So those two guys make me the most concern of that group, but not to the fact that I'm going to draft Ingram or Andrews ahead of them. I just think like those are the two situations that make me the most worried. And I'll do some more research on this maybe later in the off season, but I think the Joku

has been better with basically every quarterback he's played with besides Deshaun Watson. Like even the first year that Watson was there, any other backup was better. And to the to the to the Flacco point, which just were worth remembering, I don't know how many games we'll get of Joe Flacco. I hope it's a lot. But he in five games with him two years ago, he averaged 18 fantasy points per game. Insane. Yeah, that's the plus, clearly. And he's going on football guys, David Njoku is going 92nd in fantasy pros, he's not even a top 100 pick.

So we're not talking about him as a sixth round pick, seventh round pick or anything, David Njoku here. So that's terrific value. Whereas Travis Kelsey is 69th on football guys and he is 78th on fantasy pros. So this is the point of tears, right? If these four guys are in the same tier, and one of them's going 100th,

and Sam Laporta is going in the 60s, 53rd on football guys, 63rd or 65th on fantasy pros makes David Adjoko look a pretty damn good value. And then you've got the best value of any position. You know, if again, he gets flacko for 10 plus games, 13 plus games, like there's huge, huge upside. He just gave you the numbers. Like we're talking about Kelsey like numbers in his prime. Yeah. But however, if he gets picket or a rookie, but again, to his point though,

it may not be a disaster. Like it may not be Flacco's heights or ceiling, but it still could be 13, 14 points per game. And that's much better of the value of where you're getting. I mean, we're talking about Kittle leading the position last year at just under 16 points per game and that's much better of the value where you're getting. I mean, we're talking about Kittle leading the position last year at just under 16 points per game. When you tell me I'm getting David Njoku 12 to 14 points per game, somewhere in there without Joe Flacco, again, it's a big ask, but still it's the Fanski's offense. Though the other concern I have a little bit small with Njoku is does Harold

Fanon take a little bit of work away, a little bit of production away? Because look, the receiving court we've talked about enough like Judy's performance then last season was fantastic. Can you do it again? We'll find out. Cedric Tillman, three games of just amazing production, but that's the best he's ever done in his career. Like we could see a lot of 12 personnel and both tight ends getting the target share,

but the touchdowns going to fan in or, or, you know, key plays going to fan in that we see maybe a little bit of a problem for, for a joke, which is you know, keep plays going to fan in that we see maybe a little bit of a problem for a joke, which is based on what he's had to deal with in the past. Boy, do I see arrowhead red colored flags for Travis Kelsey. I mean, 36 in October was tight end seven per game in full PPR last year, tight end 12 per game in non PPR. His yak has tanked. He was one of four tight ends that had just awful metrics. Nijoku, Kelsey, Ingram, and Jake Ferguson. They each ranked 27th or lower among 31 tight ends with 50 or more targets in both yards per target and yards per catch. I mean, it just seems so obvious what's happening here.

And in three games with Rashi Rice, he had 12 targets. Rashi Rice, I think, had 29 or something like that. Xavier Worthy, those were the first three games of his career. Marquis Brown didn't even play in those three games. I don't know how I don't know how you couldn't be worried about Travis Kelsey. I think you could be optimistic about him too, because last year when Patrick Mahomes was good, in nine regular season games in which he threw

for 250 more yards, Travis Kelsey averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game in PPR, which would have made him tight in one. In seven games in which Mahomes threw for fewer than 250 yards, he was awful in those games, Kelsey averaged seven PPR fantasy points per game. My homes averaged 190 yards per game in those. So I get the optimism, but my God,

I don't know that there's a player who has more downside than Travis Kelsey in my opinion, because last year was very concerning when Rice was on the field. He has the most downside in tier three, but he's recommitted to his body, right, Jamie? He's- Well, it's 185's, he's 150 pounds. Yeah. I think the, the, the things that I look at with Kelsey, it's four numbers. He was third in

receptions and receiving yards at the position last year, or no third in targets and receptions last year, fifth in receiving yards and scored three touchdowns. Yep. So where did the receptions and targets go? Where did the receiving yards go? North or south? And you know, you mentioned Adam, there's maybe as much competition for targets than

he's ever had to deal with before, especially as he's getting older. I do think we're going to see a better offense and that could lead to him getting back to that eight plus touchdown range. And if that happens and let's say he's now fifth in targets and fifth in receptions and eighth in receiving yards, it sort of balances itself out a little bit. And so clearly 36 is not the age you want to see after what we've seen from him, how he's been moving the last couple of years. It's not good, but now he may get open a little bit more defenses can't focus on him as much

because of all these guys. And so it's going to be a little fascinating. You know, I think when you're drafting Kelsey, I took him in our pick by pick series, not to keep referencing this because it's just us drafting. So it's hard to say, but like round eight, I'll do that all day long. If Travis Kelsey is still sitting there around seven is like where I'm buying in. I think round six is a good range to start to consider them. But just for this tears discussion, right? It doesn't make more sense to take Travis Kelsey in round seven or round eight, or David Njoku or even Evan Ingram in round nine or 10 or Mark Andrews. I mean, I would I would obviously take the joke because I haven't ranked higher. So yes,

if I can guarantee myself that I'm waiting out in the joke in that in the draft that I talked about, I think it was he took the joku before Kelsey was off the board. So you know, that's his rankings as well. I believe you know, so you're you're you're taking again knowing your league. That's the biggest thing. So I didn't think I was going to get into joku in instead of Kelsey. But the longer he sits on the board. Yes, there's more downside than upside. But like, was that the worst season we've seen from Kelsey and still 12 plus PPR points per game? Like that's hard to find. I know, but rice only played three games. I keep going back to that. I get everything. I don't disagree at all, but if, if we were expecting typical Kelsey,

he's not waiting that long. He's not in this tier. All right. I got to wrap it up with this. Mark Andrews is in tier four for Jamie. 69 targets in 17 games last year. Caught 90% of his end zone targets, which is absurd. By comparison, Trey McBride has caught, I think, 20% of his end zone targets in his career. Four out of 16, or three out of 15. Yeah. So, uh, so Andrews is just an interesting player. He's elite efficient. You know, let me take a break. Heath, we'll come back and finish up with Mark Andrews. Uh, one of the most efficient tight ends in football needs more targets. We'll be right back on FFT. There's regular cold and then there's the mountains are blue cold

mountain cold refreshment cores light, the chill choice celebrate responsibly must be legal drinking age. Heath, what do you think about Mark Andrews? He's in tier four for Jamie. I think it's, it's all in how you want to frame it because I think he, it's very, very similar to Travis Kelsey in a complete opposite way. Kelsey had all of the targets last year and still had the catches. And we know he has elite upside, didn't score any touchdowns.

The efficiency was awful. Andrews scored all the touchdowns and had great efficiency, but the target share, kind of like with Laporta too, is terrifying. If Mark Andrews just has a good touchdown rate next year of like 6%, which is still very good. He's going to be dropped. Yeah. If the targets stay the same. Right. And I, it's hard for me to envision a situation unless Derek Henry gets hurt or the Ravens defense just has one of those

years where five like the lions in the middle of the year last year, I don't see the pass volume ballooning for Baltimore. And so you just have to count on not just great efficiency, which Andrews has almost always given us, but insanely good efficiency that we never expect anyone to repeat. All right, let's go to tiers five and six in Jamie's tight end tiers. As we are moving into the double digit rounds now

in average draft position, tight end five is the two, sorry, tier five is the two rookies, Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren. And then tier six are fallback options and not bad ones. Tucker Kraft, Dalton Kincaid, Dallas Goddard, Jake Ferguson and Zach Ertz. We'll talk about tier six in a moment here, but let's take a look at tier five, Loveland and Warren. Thoughts, Jamie?

Huge upside and a lot of questions. So, you know, Loveland, number 10 overall pick in the NFL draft, obviously going to a team and a coach that is going to, I think, rely on him quite a bit. But it's the same conversation we have about all the Bears pass catchers, like who is going to be the primary options in this offense. And the fact that Loveland, I know he says he's fine, but dealing with a shoulder injury this off season for a guy that dealt through the whole draft process, so I'm not mistaken, a little bit banged up as well. So will he come in and command targets right away?

I hope so. And there's a lot to love about what Ben Johnson did with Sam Laporta as a rookie in somewhat of a crowded receiving core, made him a red zone threat. But now you're asking him to do that, Caleb Williams to be, you know, much better. And still DJ Moore, Romo Dunze, Luther Bird

and all get opportunities. So there's the, you know, sort of things that's weighing him down. Tyler Warren, clearly another guy, number 14 overall pick going to a team that I think will lean on him quite a bit. But you have quarterback concerns and there's still Michael Pittman and Josh Downs or Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, whoever you want to, you know, look at those two guys on a very, very run heavy offense. So I think anybody expecting Brock Bowers production from those two guys is probably

asking way, way too much and very unrealistic. But can they be productive in their rookie campaigns? I think you want to draft two tight ends if you're taking these guys. And so tier five and tier six, you can take two guys from this group and I think you'll get by. Start the guy in tier six earlier. And then if the rookie starts to produce, you have a trade chip or, you know take two guys from this group and I think you'll get by. Start the guy in tier six earlier and then if the rookie starts to produce you have a trade chip or you know two very good players on your team but I think looking at Loveland and Warren as immediate starting caliber fantasy options

you got to be a little bit patient. Yeah what's interesting about tight end is that this is a position where we often have players this is why we is a position where we often have players, this is why we say great or late. We often have players come from the double digit rounds or sometimes undrafted and finishing in the top five, having really good years. So Loveland and Warren, yeah, Jamie said don't expect Brock Bowers, but they're obviously very talented players. It could be one of them, but Heath, when you look at tier six, Kraft, Kincaid, Goddard, Ferguson, Ertz, do you see that kind

of potential for any of these guys? Kraft, Kincaid, Goddard, Ferguson, Ertz? I'm going to agree with Michael in the chat with a little less enthusiasm. Not sure I'd put the exclamation point in, but he thinks Kraft should be in tier four with Andrews and Ingram. I think he should be in tier four with Andrews. But other than that, I pretty much agree with everything Jamie said. I think there's a chance that Jake Ferguson's target share ends up being a little bit high, not impacted by George Pickens. And he's maybe a little bit too low,

but this is where I have him. If Zach Ertsch just does what he did last year for some reason again, then he's probably a little too low, but this is where I have him. I think probably I feel more confident in the floor for all of tier six than I do tier five, but tier five's much more likely to have a breakout season that you get excited about. And I think craft is as well. And just to keep the, uh, the theme going, I would

take all of these guys before Evan Ingram. I think the one thing about craft is again, again, the past volume, how much is it going to increase for a team that just brought in two rookie wide receivers? One, depending on how you feel about saving on Williams, but Matthew Golden being a first round rookie. And so yes, they have Christian Watson for however long he's going to be out maybe the entire season. Seems a little bit more optimistic on his recovery, but still. So, Kraft is George Kittle-like. Light, right? I mean, just as efficient as he's come.

And, you know, a guy that his coach has, from the minute the season ended, has been talking him up as getting more opportunities and being more of a playmaker. being more of a playmaker. And so I mean, I think I'm the lowest of the three of us between you and Dave on where he's ranked still top 12 tight end for me. But like, you tell me right now that they're going to throw the ball more than I have him ranked too low. And really, when you look at the guys in Tier 6, the one that stands out the most clearly is Kinkade. And I sort of view him similar to the rookies, based on how I think he will hopefully perform. And again, you know, keep using that word hope is, is tough to do. But he played through two significant knee injuries last year. Yeah. And if he's healthy, you look at this receiving court, there's just such a big opportunity for him if he can get those targets. And we

haven't seen anything that says suggest that he's going to get those targets. But again, more more of a betting on town here as opposed to necessarily situation. Man, I really like these two tiers, tier five, Loveland and Warren, tier six, Kraft, Kincaid, Goddard. I'd, I think I'd probably draw the line with Ferguson and Ertz. I don't know, Ferguson being third on the team in Targets probably, and maybe he could be out target Pickens. Ertz just called it.

That's tight end values, somebody said. Yeah, who said that? What was that? That was yesterday? That, that was that. Yeah, I don't know. I don't really see it with Ferguson, but Goddard is a lot like Kraft.

I mean, he's gonna be third on the team in targets, but in just the seven games that Dallas Goddard played with AJ Brown and Devontae Smith last year, he averaged 10 and a half PPR fantasy points per game. That's good enough to be tight end 10. The year before he was tight end 12 per game. And by the way, in those seven games I mentioned, Jalen Hurst was tied in 12 per game. And Jalen, and by the way, in those seven games I mentioned, Jalen Hurts was throwing 25 passes per game

on pace for fewer than 3,500 yards. So it's the same thing. How much passing increases are going to be in the Eagles' offense? As they have talked about that, that they're gonna change things up a bit. Goddard's not gonna win your league if Brown and Smith get hurt,

but he's probably gonna finish around 12th per game, right? I mean, he's gonna be usable. It's gonna be frustrating. I've got him 12th. Yeah, he's gonna be frustrating because he's gonna have some duds. I think that's the case with any tight end on a team that sometimes could throw like 18 passes in a week

where they're blowing out their opponent and they're run heavy to begin with. Man, how insane is it that we've gone through tier six and we're at what, tied in 16, and we've not even like thought about Kyle Pitts. All right, let's go to tier seven. Well, I was gonna say like the tier six guys for me are like 10 PPR points per game.

Like that's what I'm looking for. Yeah, Kincaid, I think Kincaid was second in target per out run rate last year. He just didn't run that many routes. And when he came back from his injury late in the season, I think maybe three or four regular season games and the playoffs, he's playing about 40% of the snaps Kinkade. He just wasn't healthy at all, but especially after that second injury. Or is it that they have gone to a more run heavy system and Dawson Knox is better in the running

game? No, because the snaps went down a lot after that injury. He wasn't exactly a high snap guy to begin with. So in that case, you're right. But it was exaggerated after he missed whatever, however many games it was in week 10 ish, something like that. I'm sorry. I don't remember the right off the top of my head.

All right. So let's go to tier seven now because in tier six, you could still end up with one of those guys as you're starting tight end. Punt on tight end, end up with Tucker Crafter, Dalton Cade, or Dallas Goddard, or if you like Ferguson or Earth, sure, and you could feel okay about it. You might want to get someone else too,

someone before that, they may be, you know, maybe it's one of the rookies, like Jamie said. Maybe you combine tiers five and six. Tier seven, Jamie, you probably, say you probably don't want this tier to be your starting tight end. John New Smith, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Isaiah Likely, Brenton Strange, Hunter Henry. That's tier seven. John New Pitts, Waller, Likelyer likely strange Henry. No, but these are all guys and you know, if if you and we see some maybe competent quarterback play throw Joanne Johnson in this tier as well, that they they're going to be waiver

wire guys at some point during the season, you know, pits will have one of those games and he scored a touchdown I believe in week one last year, you know, he gets off to a good start and he's not drafted, he'll get easily off picked up off the waiver. Our John Smith gets off to a good start and he's not drafted. He'll get easily picked up off the way of where John Smith gets off to a good start with Aaron Rogers. Same thing. I mean, look, Isaiah likely broke a lot of people's fab last year because the two touchdown game he had in week

one. And Strange could easily be one of those guys for the Jaguars. And then Hunter Henry was very productive. And again, if you don't buy into the new additions in New England, like he's gonna still be a significant factor for Drake May. So I don't mind looking at these guys and saying, okay, plug and play, you know, maybe get me through a few weeks, but do I want to draft them as starters? No. And I think there's another guy that I don't really have ranked like it's possible,

but Mike Gassicki, that somebody in the chat said, you just need to draft him and bank on T Higgins getting hurt, which there is contingent upside if one of those wide receivers gets hurt for sure. But also going down the stretch, their last six games when he was playing with Higgins, their last six games when he was playing with Higgins he was getting six targets a game he just he scored zero touchdowns so nobody cared but I think there may be a little bit of hope that Kaseki's more involved. So five games that Higgins missed last year Kaseki was averaging 12.3 PBR points per game. I'm sorry 13.4 at least 12.33 times There's another tight end who was averaging close to six tight targets per game. Yeah another tight end who averaged Six targets per game in his last four games. He has not shown up in the first eight tiers

He is Giants second year tight end Theo Johnson. He scored 14.17.76.9 and 10.4 PPR fantasy points in his last four games. Take that feels. Yeah, I was pretty excited about Theo Johnson coming into the NFL and I still have some hope. It feels like Russell Wilson's not a very good fit for him. Like Russell Wilson wants to throw 40 yard bombs or dump it off to the running back. I appreciate Thomas throwing up tiers nine and 10.

Here's a lot of names. Let me just go back to tiers, tiers seven and eight real quick and just wrap it up. Cause for the audio audience here. So we have John Smith, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller. I've already made the case that Waller, Jamie, he could be streamer. I feel like he could do what John New Smith did last year,

which was run the shortest routes in the world and catch a lot of passes behind the line of scrimmage. But can he do what John New Smith did after the catch last year? I don't know. I don't know. He's not as explosive as John New Smith. He may have been once upon a time.

We don't know. But I mean, you know. He's refreshed. He's not as explosive as John Smith. He may have been once upon a time. We don't know. But I mean, you know, he's refreshed. He's also 32 years old. Last time we saw him, he was battling a hamstring injury. So yeah, like, yeah, good, good. John, who's averaged two more yak per reception for his career than Waller. I bet you the eval's lower though. What about yards per catch? than Waller. I bet you the AVOT's lower though. What? What about yards per catch?

Oh, that's probably lower 11.8 for Waller 10.8 for John. Right. So it was more but it was more down the field stuff for Waller. Yeah. Likely Brenton Strange Hunter Henry that rounds out to your seven. Juan Johnson, Shigel Conquo, Mason Taylor, and Mike Gysicki in tier eight. And I'll ask you this, because you have Mason Taylor in tier eight. So let's go now, we can go to tiers nine and 10.

Well, just, we get a lot of questions about Jawan Johnson, or at least maybe one commenter. The quarterback situation just scares me. I mean, look, there's great target opportunity here, and no taste in health, or who knows how long. He was great to close the season last year. It seems like he's great every year at the end of the season when everybody's sort of forgotten about him.

And we could see a situation where the, you know, inexperienced quarterback leans on him. I don't know exactly what his numbers were with Spencer Ratliff last year. I'm probably gonna guess not very good, but there's a chance here for him just based on his opportunity. And they did give him a contract extension this off season,

so that's possible. Okay, so you have Mason Taylor in tier eight. Let's take a look at tiers nine and 10. It's basically every other tight end that's ever played football. Dalton Schultz, Jutaveon Sanders, Elijah Arroyo, Tyler Conklin, Pat Fryermuth, Cade Otten. I guess we could say,

would need an, this group needs an injury before we start thinking about them? Needs an injury to a teammate? Potentially. I mean, you know, Schultz was good the last time CJ Shroud was good for a full season, so something to keep an eye on there with just a lot of moving parts with the receiving core. I don't have much hope, but if you're looking at it that way, I do think that in the case of some of the replacement tight ends that, you know, Colt Comet will still have somewhat of a factor

that will impact Colston Loveland, somewhat of like a Dawson Knox with how Dalton Kincaid sort of struggled a little bit because the veteran was there. I'm very curious to see the Rams tight end situation. So Ferguson, I think just in the last couple of days, got some hype. Higbee, when he came back from the ACL tier, was actually very good.

And, you know, we'll see how that sort of plays out with Adams now there and the other guys you know Tutu Atwell whatever you know joining Pukinakua but Ferguson could clearly be a big problem for Tyler Higbee. In the case of the Seattle guys I'm hoping Arroyo is the guy there and then the Chargers one is another one to keep an eye on because Gadsden you know I'm fond of him long term the guy there. And then the Chargers one is another one to keep an eye on because Gatston, you know, I'm fond of him long term. But Tyler Conklin just seems like one of these guys, you know, similar to like how we talk about Najee Harris with the Chargers.

Like he's going to be, I think, a good role player for that team. And he closed the season playing very well with Aaron Rodgers last year for the Jets. So nobody's drafting these guys. But these are just, you know, like you said, maybe an injury, but could get off to decent starts and could be way over our consideration. I know it's just splitting hairs at this point, but just curious why you had Mason Taylor in tier eight, Elijah Arroyo in tier nine, Terrence Ferguson and Harold Franan Jr. in tier 10.

Open up your notes for today. Okay. What? What did I mention something about the Jets receiving core for today. Okay. What did I do? You mentioned something about the Jets receiving core? Okay. Yeah, yeah, Josh Reynolds. Well, and not just that,

but Mason Taylor is trying to overcome Stone Smart. Whereas Arroyo still has Noah Fant and Ferguson still has Tyler Higby. It's just, there's such an easy path to targets for Mason Taylor. Such an easy path. Yup. By the way, I wasn't disagreeing with it. I was just trying to get that explanation.

Mile High Luke says Taylor has a real opportunity to be second on his team in targets. And this will be the moment where I remind you that in the last nine seasons, there have only been three tight ends who have finished top 10, top five in PPR without being first or second on their team in Targets. So that is 45 tight ends who have finished top five over the last nine seasons and only three of them were not first or second on their team in Targets. It's a pretty big deal at this position. Targets are key.

Goodbye everyone. That was a fun show. Thank you very much. Jamie's tight in tears and all of his tears are available on the website on cbsports.com slash fantasy. Heath, you have your tears published? No. Are you going to what do you have coming out? I've got the little bit of pick by pick. And then an opportunity index coming out early next week, kind of looking at, uh, where teams threw the ball, what situation changed, which could lead to changes in terms

of projections this year and teams that added players, but don't necessarily have room for them or teams that have vacated targets, but don't seem to have filled those. I really hate it when Jamie or Dan makes me write an article. I have to write two articles this week. Oh, there's a lot more coming. No, for what? What do I have to do? We're going to do a lot more pick by pick.

Everybody loves it. Pick by pick is really is very cool. Do you think I can start my pick by pick recap of team eight, I believe with quote, if only I had drafted Isaac Garendo end quote, and be like, that usually, I usually I don't feel that way about it. The last stories that I've edited for you, when our magazine used to be prominent

and the best in the business. We're great. Changed a lot, had to change a lot. I don't have to edit your stories anymore, so I'm prominent and the best in the business. We're great. Changed a lot. That had changed a lot. I don't have to edit your stories anymore, so I'm good. Okay. All right. Thanks everyone. We'll talk to you tomorrow with a mail bag.

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