Fantasy Football Today - TE Tiers! Where Do Mark Andrews and Noah Fant Land? (07/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 15, 2021

Nominate us on PodcastAwards.com! https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup We know it's Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle at the top, but how close is Mark Andrews to that group? We get into our tiers, tell you why this position is an exciting one (seriously) and have some revealing debates. Which tier is the most "boom or bust" (4:10)? How many Fantasy Points should you be looking for from your starting TE (7:15)? ... News and notes (10:30) on the Steelers possibly predictable offense and then we're back to the tiers! Let's get into the Andrews debate (14:30). Is he closer to Kittle or T.J. Hockenson? What does the third tier look like for Dave and Heath (20:10)? Is Dallas Goedert a part of it (25:35)? ... Moving on to the fourth tier, we've got some disagreement on Noah Fant (36:05). Should he be grouped with guys like Pitts and Hockenson, or with guys like Irv Smith and Jonnu Smith? And we finish with the rest of the TEs you need to know about (42:40) and wonder if Tyler Higbee can break out now that Gerald Everett is on Seattle ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Two more episodes for you in Tears Week. Obviously, this is the last cheer we're going to talk about. We'll have a mailbag for you on Friday. Adam Azer with Dave Richard and Heath Cummings. It's time to talk about tight ends and how we tear them.

And we've been talking about this for so much of the offseason, especially with Kyle Pitts. But I'm looking forward to today's show. It's exciting to me. In fact, Heath, you already know what the first segment is going to be. Are you excited for the first segment? I am. I presume it's something that I tweeted like three hours ago that you've come up with, and you're going to call it a new idea.

That was unbelievable. All right. The title of this segment is Adam says something questionable. Are you ready for something questionable? Here we go. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, I think we should hit on what Heath just mentioned.

I will. I'll get back to that. Actually, let's set it up because over the last few days, I've said some questionable things. For example, as our commenter on YouTube, Dominic, pointed out, Dave said, McGregor was lying on the mat with a broken ankle. And I replied with, who won? So that was pretty questionable.

And then yesterday, I had this idea of doing one good stat, one bad stat for basically every player. And so I said, all right, I'll tweet one of them. And I went, all right, new game, of them and i put all right new game one good stat one bad stat let's start with chris godwin i gave a good stat that i gave a bad stat not knowing that he did the exact same thing three hours earlier with cole commit positive cole commits that negative cole commits that so heath i just think great minds think alike well i was

just doing research for today's show. I thought I'd bring my Cole commit stats to the tight end tears show. You should. I think you should. I don't know if we'll get that far down in the tears today, but we will. We will. Okay. I don't think we should spend much time on what I think are the first two

tears. Yeah, that's probably a good point. But here's the questionable thing I'm going to say. I think tight end is my favorite position. Yeah. Bam. You want to win that position on draft day, right? You want to be...

I think it presents great opportunity and strategy and challenges to fantasy managers. I think it's my favorite position. Some guys are running back guys. Some guys are wide receiver guys. Some guys are quarterback guys. Adam prefers tight ends. You didn't have to say it that way.

I know people like that, yeah. And so I also like the fact that you get a lot of top five finishes from guys that came out of nowhere. Three years in a row, we've had a year two tight end finish in the top five, and none of them had even 600 yards as rookies. You had Darren Waller. You had Logan Thomas. They were in their fourth, fifth years. So I think that's exciting.

And Robert Tunyon was a third-year guy last year who had two touchdowns in his first two seasons and 11 last season. So I like tight end. Hooray for tight ends. Supporting tight ends. I don't like tight end premium, though. So does that mean that you're going to target one early in your draft,

or you're more the kind of guy that wants to get one at a value? Well, I want everything at a value. No, my love of the tight end position doesn't necessarily reflect how I'm going to draft. I just love the discussions we can have about it, the debate we can have about it. I think it's fun for fantasy. That's all I was saying. I'll let you guys tell me where you like to draft tight ends. So here's an intro question.

What is the most boom or bust tight end tier for you guys? I think it's got to be whatever tier Kyle Pitts is in. He is as boom and bust as they get. He's got maximum upside. I think it would be a little surprising if he finished better than Travis Kelsey this year, but as a top three tight end, I think people can envision that based on the film and college. And he could be like every other rookie tight end and bust and be good for 500 yards and four touchdowns yeah i i've got three others in that tier i think they all fit as like that's definitely the most

boom or bust tight end tier um tj hawkinson dallas goddard kyle pitts no offense for me interesting and you don't you don't have andrews in. You have him slightly ahead, I assume. I don't know. That was the thing where we can debate where to put Mark Andrews or how to talk about Mark Andrews. I don't know why we would think that Mark Andrews is a bust risk. I mean, he's been really good for two years in a row, and he's the number one option on his own team. Well, he doesn't have to be a bust risk

to be in that tier. Well, but he wouldn't be boom or bust then. He wouldn't, but he's... He would be the safest of the tight ends in that tier, which is how I look at it. I have, like if we're doing this by projections, I have him almost exactly equally distanced in projections away from George Kittle and TJ Hawkinson.

Who are three and five for you. Right. So I would say he's slightly closer to Kittle. I don't think we want to put him in the Kittle Waller tier. Like everybody else will throw a fit if I do that. So maybe he just gets his own tier for his own tier. Okay. So yeah, that's kind of the trend we've seen

from tight ends is the round five ish picks or whatever uh that that tier the evan ingram hunter henry oj howard tier from a few years ago uh that that's boomer busty for sure okay uh we are finalists for the sports category of the people's Choice Podcast Awards. We really appreciate our listeners. All you do, that's why we love interacting with you. We have the Tuesday night streams on YouTube, all these things. So if you could help us out one more time and go to podcastawards.com slash app slash sign up,

toggle down to the sports category and nominate Fantasy Football today. We want to be a finalist. We are going to put a finalist we are going to put a link at the top of the episode description as well and also if you want to be part of the show you can send us emails at fantasy football at cbsi.com fantasy football at cbsi the letter i.com or you can leave an apple podcast review a five-star review with a question in there and tell people about the show help us grow we grow. I know we've been around for 12 years, I think, now,

but we're still always looking to grow and be the top fantasy football podcast out there. So help us out with that. Again, the link is podcastawards.com slash app slash sign up. Dave, you want to give a stat about how crappy tight ends were last year? This is just more of like a,

just an overall warning and for people to just not overrate tight ends in general, you can overrate the top three if you want to, but last year, 10 tight ends, average 10 PPR points per game, not 12 tight ends, 10 tight ends only got to 10 PPR points per game.

I've set the bar at 11 PPR points. That's what I want from a tight end at a minimum from week to week. Only four tight ends average more than 11 PPR points per game last year. That's really not good. And then one other stat in nine of 17 weeks. So more than half of the season last year, 11 or fewer tight ends hit that 11 fantasy point mark. So if the barometer is 11 ppr points and you'd be happy with your tight end getting 11 ppr points or more it's it's it's tough to do

it almost puts extra value on those top three guys who not only should get over 11 ppr points most weeks but way over 11 PPR points. So the top three in Andrews were the guys that did it last year. Is that right? I'd have to double check, but that sounds about right to me. And then, of course, as Adam remembers from our last week's show, if you just take out the games where Drew Locke got hurt and where Kendall Hinton started and Noah Fant got hurt,

he was at 11.5. Yeah, and remember, we all use different scorings, but it's close. But to give you 11 PPR points per game is what Dave's looking for. Not that many did it. Kelsey almost doubled that. He was almost at 21 points per game.

Darren Waller was 17.5. George Kittle, 15.6. I have Mark Andrews at 12.2. I have Tunyon at 11.8. I guess he didn't quite make that for Dave. I have CJ Uzama at 11.4 in two games. I have Tunyon at 10.5.

That's a big difference. He played 16 games and had 168 total PPR points. There's two more tight ends at 10.5. He played 15 games according to FF today. If he only played 15 games, then yeah, he makes it.

Football guy says he played 16 as well. Let's go. CBS does say 16. That is weird. I think you should start using CBS, Adam. That's ridiculous. How do you have that wrong?

I don't know. What other lies have you told us over the years? You know what? It makes me second guess those stats now. All Azers stats. All of my stats. All of them. You can't do that to me.

Lies, damn lies, and Azers stats. I'll go to his game log. Maybe there was a game he played like only 10% of the snaps. No, you know what it was? He had no stats in week one, but he played 62% of the snaps. Boy, that's bad. You can't do that, FF3.com. You, don't blame him.

Man, what did I do? You're a podcast host. An award-winning podcast host. You're giving out false numbers. Don't blame the source of where you're getting them from. I think I'm going to blame the source. I am sorry. That honestly sucks.

I feel bad about that. But okay. All right. Let's move on then. Let's talk about the tiers. I think we should do some news and notes just real quick here. Jamie sent me a link today from Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. He wrote about Ben Roethlisberger and the dead giveaway that Ben Roethlisberger had out of the shotgun, which was most of their snaps.

Does that have to do with his feet? Yeah. Oh, I've seen that for years. Okay, well, all right. Well, his foot was on the ground for run plays and elevated for pass plays. Was it like back a little bit too? Like he's got a foot, like a step back? Yeah.

I'll tell you in a second. I'll ask FF today what they said. FF today will say it was his hand that was up in the air. That means it's a pass. Yeah, well, it doesn't matter exactly the placement, but it was a big tell. They ran the shotgun 83% of the time, and when it's a run, Roethlisberger stands flat-footed before the snap.

When it's a pass, he lifts his left heel off the ground before the snap. He does that even when he fakes the handoff before throwing the ball. If you can fix that, it might make them a little bit more efficient offensively. It's nice for the defense to know what type of play is coming. I really couldn't believe that.

I don't know if teams caught on to that, though, because Roethlisberger still had a solid year. I don't know. Their offense really cratered down the stretch. Maybe it affected the run game. Hard to run when everybody's running. Yeah, that's a good point. Yeah, but I thought that was interesting.

And then just a couple of notes from Ian Rappaport. Two players who are on the franchise tag are unlikely to sign extensions before the deadline. That's Alan Robinson for the Bears and safety Marcus May for the Jets. Okay, let's do the tight end tiers. Dave, what's tier one? I've named the tight end tier

at the top, Kelsey. Okay. Would you like to guess who's in it? Is it Jason Kelsey? It is not Jason Kelsey. It is Irv smith uh okay it's travis kelsey kelsey's in a tier on his own we've talked about it five straight years he finishes the number one tight end in ppr he's awesome gets a ton of targets gets good yardage gets good touchdowns plays in a perfect offense yada yada yada there is no doubt that he is the top tight

end in fantasy football all right what's tier two this tier is named Waller Kittle would you like to guess who's in this tier uh Darren Waller and George Kittle oh in this tier I've decided that it would be bad for the purposes of this show for me to have Mark Andrews in his own tier because then we're going to be doing this Dave's third tier, Heath's fourth tier thing, and it's going to just confuse everything.

So caution to the wind. I can't be any dumber than Adam is on this show. Mark Andrews is in tier two for me. You go to tier two and a half half and i'll tell you what else like i know that so here's the question heath where are you drafting mark andrews i'm sure that you believe or agree that uh waller and kittle should be drafted anywhere from like 18th overall to 30th overall right how far behind andrews is that i have taken andrews at three four turn okay as long as you make that clear it's fine because there's something like that when we get to my third tier

so dave i got a tight end that kind of brings up the rear consistently would you say that there are two and a half men in that tier okay mark andrews so none of these tight ends are half men i guess if everybody calls me dumb for putting them in tier two then adam and i could just be dumb and dumber very good so all right so mark andrews last year he was tight end five and he was six in PPR. He was four in non-PPR. Per game, he was actually fourth in PPR. He played only 14 games. And, all right, make your case that he should be in that tier with Kittle and Waller.

Well, I mean, I think I said at the beginning, he is equally apart, basically, from the tier behind. I think the two and a half tier makes sense. Um, he has shown us production closer to those guys than anybody else, except for, I guess, Zach hurts. And it's not particularly close.

I think on a per game basis, he was right with Darren Waller in 2019. Uh, it was 13.9 points behind him and played one fewer game. So he's shown us the ability to produce at that, not just 11, but 12.5 points per game or more two years in a row. We have no one else that has given us that. I love the target share that he's given you.

Over the past two seasons, he was at 23.4% in 2019, 23.7% in target share that he's given you over the past two seasons. He was at 23.4% in 2019, 23.7% in the games that he played in 2020. But I wish he'd get more yardage. I wish he had more numbers overall. And he averaged 6.4 targets per game. It's a nice target share. It's just not as many targets as you'd like your stud tight end to have on a weekend week out basis and they've added sammy watkins they've added rashad baitman are those two newcomers going to take targets away from brown from andrews from both are the ravens going to try and diversify and spread the ball around a little bit more and keep defenses off kilter that way. So that's why I couldn't put him in the second tier or even in the second and a half tier. He's squarely in the

third tier for me. He's at the top of that tier in non-PPR. He's not in that top tier, that top of that tier in PPR because I'm worried about the target volume paling in comparison to Hawkinson for sure and maybe Pitts as well. Does this matter to you? Here's an Azar stat. Okay. Mark Andrews had

back-to-back 100-yard games to start the 2019 season. Since then, in his last 27 games, he's averaging 49.4 yards per game. I mean, that's an example of what I was talking about. You did say the yards. I want to give the numbers, though. Sure. But. I mean, that's an example of what I was talking about. You did say the yardage. I want to give the numbers, though.

Sure. But, I mean, that is... I am eliminating two 100-yard games, but it's been 27 games in a row where he's on pace for 790 yards. He's only had eight games with 70-plus yards over the last two seasons, and only three of them came last year.

They were all at the end of the season, though. I would just also say, if we just want to pick and choose sample sizes, his last six games of last year, 61 yards, 96 yards, 78 yards, 66 yards, 76 yards, 27. So week 17, they won that game 38-3, which they'll have some games like that this year. But those last

six games or five games, which we seem to talk about a lot for a lot of other players, how they finished. He was on pace for 1,098 yards over a 16 game season. That was when that was when Nick Boyle got hurt, but I think it was more coincidence, but

also Heath, you didn't count the playoffs. Two playoff games, 41 yards, 28 yards. Bam! Playoff games don't count for fantasy. Yeah, but... They do in playoff challenge. That's right. I know.

You can, however you feel about a player, you can find a sample size to make yourself feel good or bad about the player i guess but the bottom line is he has been uh top six two years in a row and per game top five two years in a row and he's terrific and he dominates red zone targets and he dominates green zone targets and that's probably not going to change right i would hope not and i And I like everything Baltimore has told us is that they want to throw the ball more this year. That could all be a lie or they could try it for half the season and it could not work. But every indication they've given us is they want to throw the ball more this year.

So it's possible that Rashad Bateman, I'm not going to acknowledge the other guys, but that Rashad Bateman comes in and doesn't have to really take anybody's targets because there's just enough targets for him. But if you're getting 6.4 targets per game and two other players come in and those guys get modest targets on a per game basis, couldn't that knock down the 6.4 to maybe under six per game? It's possible. I think that's what makes me a little nervous about him right i i think the evidence that we have suggests that would be a mistake because lamar jackson's been better

throwing to mark andrews than anybody right and you're gonna cut cut his targets for sammy watkins uh so how jackson does throw into watkins i guess let me clarify and say that when i say mark andrews dominates red zone and green zone targets, he's not among the league leaders, but I meant on his team. He dominates red zone and green zone targets. Let's move on, though. And when you talk about tiers now,

this discussion is going to be different than just a ranking show or the tight end preview because you have to decide you're taking these wide receivers, you're taking these tight ends in tier 2, or 2.5, the 2.5 tight ends that make up Tier 2. You're taking them over some very good players. Or you might be taking them over the Josh Jacobs, Chris Carsons, players that you don't feel great about, you know, it's like these tight ends come off the board sometimes when the great running backs and wide receivers are not,

are not there anymore, or at least Andrew's met, you know what I'm saying? So, so that's the kind of discussion I want to have here. And so give me the next tier and we'll talk about some of the, maybe you say, okay,

I'm happy to take Waller, Kittle, and maybe Andrews over Josh Jacobs or, I don't know, Travis Etienne or Amari Cooper, but not these guys. And you can plug in your own running backs and wide receivers there. So what's the next tier? For me, the next tier starts with Mark Andrews, and this is where we get into the fun part of tight end tiers. Actually, it's Hawkinson, Andrews, and PPR, followed by Pitts and Goddard. And Goddard is in that half

tier for me. So the top three tight ends in this tier, Hawkinson, Andrews, Pitts, they're kind of in their own bubble. And Goddard can't break through that bubble, but he's not quite part of the tier below him. So he's in this tier. So he's in the third and a half tier for me, I suppose. And I'm looking for these tight ends starting in round five. So there are going to be a lot of running backs that I'm taking ahead of these tight ends and plenty of good receivers and even a few quarterbacks before I start looking at Hawkinson, Andrews, Pitt, Scottert.

Yeah, I have basically the same guys. It's Hawkinson, Goddard, Pitts, and Fant. I'm not as excited to draft this tier as Dave is. The nice thing with Goddard and Fant is you don't have to be. I start looking at these guys at the end of round six or in round seven. And the only two that are ever there at that point are Goddard and Fant. And so I draft them. So what about going

back to the wide receiver tiers? What about the Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans? Before all these guys. And all these guys for you does not include Mark Andrews, though. Correct. But it would for Dave. So, Dave, you would take all those wide receivers ahead of Andrews. I'm taking Lamb ahead of Andrews and Hawkinson. I'm taking Lockett ahead of him. DJ Moore and PPR I'll take ahead of him.

I've even got Jamar Chase one spot ahead of Hawkinson in my overall rankings. I think it's pretty easy for me at least it's pretty easy to take the starting running backs and the starting wide receivers and i'll say top 25 of each of those before all these guys what it's almost like this is a like this tier of tight ends for me is a decision with whichever of the top five or six, wherever your tier cutoff is, at quarterback. Right, yeah. That was my next question.

Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott. Those guys versus these guys, I think, is a difficult decision. You might be able to get both. You might have to commit a round five pick. You could take a round five and six pick on, you know, if you really liked Hawkinson and then Dak Prescott or something like that. You would need one of the two to slide, I think. Unless Goddard's your guy.

Or in Heath's case, Fant. Hawkinson is going 62nd. So that's the very end of round five. And Dak Prescott is going 50th. Lamar Jackson, 50th. All right, if you made that Russell Wilson, he's going back-to-back with Hawkinson. So you could do that.

So you do it with the last pick of round five and the first pick of round six. Yeah, and it's conceivable if you had... I mean, Mark Andrews is going 65th, so he's going after Hawkinson. You could have a middle of the round pick and at about 57 overall, take Kyler Murray or something like that if he's there or one of those quarterbacks and then hope to get Mark Andrews in the next round.

Maybe Hawkinson falls a few spots. You might have to get a little bit lucky. But that strategy overall, what do you think about two running backs, two receivers, or some combination of that with your first four picks, and then a quarterback and a tight end? You'll get the second tier of quarterback, which is after Mahomes. I know Dave

puts Mahomes in that same tier. So either the first or the second tier, but a top six quarterback and a top six tight end in rounds five and six. Yeah, if you can do it i think it's good my my preference would be because i think generally like i know what the adp is no all those guys are late round five early round six the quarterbacks our experience is generally in round six you will find one of those quarterbacks it's usually russell wilson sometimes it's dak prescott it it has been lamar jackson

which is astonishing to me but it sometimes he falls to the last of that group i i love getting five running back slash wide receivers and then taking the last of the quarterbacks in round six and then taking goddard or phantom round seven okay Okay. Dave, do you have a thought on that? No. I think that Heath's plan is fine. You just have to let Goddard to do it, and you have to get Goddard in seven. You should not reach for Dallas Goddard

is the point that I'll make on today's podcast. All right. Let's have a Goddard and Fant debate then because Heath obviously... Dave, you have him in that third tier. Goddard's at the bottom of that third tier. But he's like... The tier range is...

I think I've got that range as rounds five through seven. Yes. And if I broke Goddard out of that tier, the range would be round five, basically, for Hawkinson and Andrews and Pitts. And then Goddard would be in his own tier as a round seven pick. I'm not as jazzed about him as other people are. I don't like the distribution from Hertz last year,

the addition of Devontae Smith. I'm a little nervous about him getting a ton of targets. Anything else you want to say, or should we throw it over to Heath? 5.7 targets per game with Hertz. 14% target share from Hertz. No red zone targets from Hertz in three and three quarters games. Average 6.6 yards per attempt. With Wentz, it was 8.7.

And Hertz will run in the red zone. That could take away targets in the red zone, which were nonexistent already last year. Okay, Heath, make the case for Goddard. Yeah, I mean, I think those those can and i don't know that i necessarily like goddard that much more than dave i'm i'm pretty happy to get goddard in round seven um i just don't like the other tight ends that much ahead of him the only thing i would say um is that yeah he only had a, what was it, the target share from Hurts? 14.1. 14.1. That's largely because, and I'm doing the math in my head right now, 16% of his targets went to Zach Hurts.

That's 30% of Jalen Hurts' targets that went to Hurts or Goddard. We don't currently, I took Ertz out of my Eagles projections. I don't know where he's going to play or what's going to happen, but it seems really unlikely that Ertz is on the Eagles. If that's the case, I think there's definitely an opportunity. You would certainly expect more than 14% of his targets to go to Goddard. If 30% of his targets went to tight ends when he threw last year, I think it could be as high as 20. So I do think that there is more upside there

just by removing Zach Ertz because he threw, which we don't know how much of that was the offensive philosophy in Philadelphia and the lack of wide receivers. But the evidence we have from Hurts last year is like a third of his passes went to tight ends. And tight ends were a humongous part of that offense last year. And they're going to be a big part of this offense this year. Don't get me wrong. And in your points valid, what do

you think it gets over 20%? Because Devante Smith had 0% of the target share last year in Philadelphia and now he's there, he's new. I would imagine that they will have other tight ends take away a little bit. I'm just nervous about Goddard breaking out into this huge role where he's a candidate for 100 targets. I've got him at 102 over 17 games, which isn't spectacular. But again, I think it's exactly what I have Noah Fant projected for. That would be about 65 catches or so, right? 65 catches, yep.

I have Fant and Goddard projected for almost exactly the same stat line, except for the fact that I think I'm always a sucker for the coming touchdown regression. And so I think that Fant will have better touchdown luck this year, almost certainly. But I think you have to project Goddard to score more touchdowns than Fant based on what we've seen in their career so far. Can I ask you, when you look at the metrics on Dallas Goddard,

what kind of a player is he? Is he anything special so far? No. Better than what Zach Ertz has been the past two years. Right. In the overall tight end spectrum in the National Football League, he's pretty good. He's a big guy.

He can move. Does he have the athletic profile to be a top three fantasy tight end? I don't think so. To me, it's more of a, of a concern about hurts, finding him more often, being accurate to him more often and throwing him touchdowns more often,

or I think hurts is going to steal touchdowns from everybody there because of his rushing prowess. So what are your projections for Goddard and fan? Goddard. I've got at 72, 765, and 5.5 touchdowns. And Fant is similar? Yeah, a little bit lower on the catches, a little bit higher on the yards, touchdown less. So is that production in your mind really good enough to warrant a seventh round

pick i think it's good enough to warrant a seventh round pick because i feel pretty like getting that production is possible from later in the draft there will probably be someone but of the tight ends that are going to be drafted after this i think it's probably 10 of them that are going to do better than that and we we weren't exactly clamoring for Robert Tunyon last year, um, to be that guy. So I don't like it while it's true that it's not a great, it will at the end of the year, it wouldn't necessarily distinguish you a lot from the guys right behind you. I think it's more predictable than the guys that are going to be behind you. I guess I just wonder if,

of course it depends on who's on the board and whether or not you have a quarterback at that point, but I couldn't take that production over, say, like Aaron Rodgers or even Jalen Hurts, but if you already have a quarterback, then just moot point. But Jerry Judy's on the board, Devontae Smith is on the board,

I'm just looking at ADP. You know, are you going to pass up wide receivers with big upside for tight ends? And here's the thing. It's just your projection. Maybe you think that Goddard and Fant have that huge upside. So that's my question. You look at Goddard and Fant versus Jerry Judy and Devante Smith. What decision do you make? I take Goddard and Pham. I mean, basically, those stat lines are very, very close, slightly better than what we got from Hawkinson and

Logan Thomas last year. Yeah. I'm taking Smith ahead of both, for sure. I have Judy ranked in PPR ahead of both. I'm definitely taking Judy ahead of Pham. All right, so now let's do Pham. Oh, I'm sorry, Heath. We'll do Pham. Well, I was going to say, Thomas and Hawkinson finished third and fifth,

and that wasn't that great in terms of per-game production, but they also scored 30 more fantasy points than tight end 12. So getting into the next tier for Dave after Hawkinson, Andrews, Pitts, and Goddard, Heath would have Noah Fant in that group. The next tier, and he would have Hawkinson, Andrews, Pitts, and Goddard. Heath would have Noah Fant in that group. The next tier, and he would have Hawkinson ahead of that group. The next tier is rounds nine through 10,

upside starters, Irv Smith, Noah Fant, Jonu Smith, and Robert Tunyon. Irv Smith, Noah Fant, Jonu Smith, and Robert Tunyon. That's Dave's fourth tier. So Heath, you don't have Fant here. You have Fant a tier ahead of this group. And who's in that tier anyway for you? Yeah, it's similar guys. Not John O. Smith because I don't like the Patriots situation. But I've got Logan Thomas,

Austin Hooper, Irv Smith, Blake Jarwin, Eric Ebron, and Robert Tunyon. Not very similar. Well, no. It's two of the three guys

that I didn't already list, plus a bunch of others. I just think you get to this range, and your projection for these guys is like nine fantasy points per game. It's not exciting at all. Is there upside? I think almost universally there's upside. There's some demonstrated upside from guys like Tunyon and Hooper,

who we don't think can ever do what they did in the past, but they have done it. Same for Ebron. And then there's some, and Logan Thomas. And there's some hopeful upside with guys like Irv Smith and Blake Jarwin. I think this is the spot where you start taking chances with your tight ends. What type of a tight end are you looking for in round nine and round 10? First and foremost, if you don't have a tight end already,

you're looking for a starter. You're looking for someone that you'll say, okay, I can start this guy for at least the first couple of weeks of the season, see how he does, and then make a decision after that. The four tight ends that I have here, I think have the most upside of all the remaining tight ends left on the board. And a lot of it's based on just what I've watched on film. There's a lot of good athleticism in this tier. I think Irv Smith is a good athlete. I think Noah Fant is

like, he might be like the J.K. Dobbins of tight ends in that he's really athletic, but he's in a rough spot where it's hard to see him breaking out and having a huge year because he's got so many other guys to share with him that Denver passing game. John, who I still think is a hell of an athlete, and I think there's a lot more that he can learn to do that could put him in the tier higher next year with the Patriots. And then Tunyon, not quite as athletic, kind of had some deceptive speed.

He got behind the defense a few times last year, and you're like, well, how did he do that? But he gets a lot of short yardage work in the red zone, and that gives him all kinds of touchdown upside. So these are four tight ends that I'm comfortable with saying no problem starters worth, worth the price tag in round nine and round 10, where it's not going to hurt you if you're wrong, but you've got to be able to be able to move on from these guys pretty quickly. If, if they look like bus early and I wouldn't, I don't think I'd probably draft any of these guys before

round 11. So I don't like them quite as much yeah that's true there's people who feel that way and it's almost like you've got to hear those names erv smith uh noah fant johnny smith robert tunyon and if you feel gross about having them then you're probably not going to get them you're probably you probably should wait until like he said round 11 to get them um but not fans that's the key there for heath well, that's what, like, the thing I would say that separates Fant and Tunyon is that they have, like, they've shown

the ability to produce as at least low in starters. Yeah, that's true. But you, but I think you're pretty high on Fant. Is that safe to say? Oh, I think I'm definitely, yeah. I think I have him, to say? Oh, I think I'm deaf. Yeah. I,

I, I think I have him. It's funny because I think I have him projected to be worse than he was on a per game basis. If at least if you don't count the games that he was heard, but I have him projected and ranked higher than everybody else. All right, go ahead.

Make your, make your case. No, I was just, I just, I think that's it. No, why though? What is it that you like about Fant more than everyone else?

I guess that's what I was trying to say. I don't necessarily know why everyone else thinks he's going to be so much worse than he was last year. Do people think that? I mean, Dave, where is he in your rank? He was what? Tight end? Well, either that or they are holding the Kendall Hinton game and the injured game against him. Because he's a guy who, if you agree that it's really only fair to count his full games when he played with a quarterback, he's shown us the ability to score 11 fantasy points per game with a 3% touchdown rate.

I think that everybody is worried about Courtland Sutton. It's not just Sutton. It's Judy, too. It's Hamler, too. It's Courtland Sutton. That's a thing that... I've said this before. I believe most fantasy analysts think just from a pass catching fantasy perspective, they'd rather have Noah Fant than TJ Hawkinson. But the situation has changed so much where Hawkinson lost Marvin Jones and Kenny Galladay and Fant added Cortland Sutton, basically. I think that's probably why the industry is different.

It's just like this offense and play caller and quarterback is not quarterback the whole time. And Teddy Bridgewater could change things or Aaron Rodgers could in a good way. They've averaged 133 targets two tight ends over the past three seasons. Shermer's offense, it says,

and it's been 140 each of the past two seasons. So yeah, I think Cortland Sutton's definitely going to get targets. But do we think those tight end targets are going to shrink from 130 or 140 down to 100? No. But he only had, he had 93 targets in 14 games. So what's that in 16?

What's that in 17? Yeah. Even more. Yeah. And again, it's just I lean more. And I think there's enough targets. I mean, we've talked about this before. The Broncos threw like 130 passes to players that wide receivers,

specifically, that they don't need to throw to near as much. They threw 179 passes to Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, and Deshaun Hamilton. Yeah, it's a good point. And it's never bad. I did a bet on talent, right? Fans got it. Well, the problem I've got with fan is that a, he was inconsistent last year and B, they don't throw him enough passes near the end zone. If those two things change, he's going to be a top five tight end. Don't get me wrong. The talent is good.

I've got concerns about the quarterback situation there, of course. But last year, he started with 33 PPR points in his first two games. He averaged 7.5 PPR points in his remaining 13, only three games with 10 plus more PPR points. He had six targets that were either in front of the end zone or in the end zone last year. Six. He needs more work. He was tied for 18th in red zone targets among tight ends with 10. I don't know why they're not throwing on the ball more near the goal line. He'd be fantastic there.

Fantastic. I do think some of that inconsistency at least has to do with the fact that he left two games early with injury and played one game with Kendall Hinton. Like that's of those 12 games that you're talking about after. Okay. So it's still nine games. It's still a lot of bad games. It's not bad games.

Yeah. I mean, which games did he leave early? He left week four. Yeah, that wasn't that bad of a game, but that was five catches for 35 yards. And he played 8% of the snaps in week 13. And week 11 was when Kendall Hinton started.

Yeah. Did we start him in those weeks, though? What were his start percentages in those weeks? Well, I don't... Yeah. Maybe we told people... I don't think we told people to just completely bail out on him

for the Hinton game. We might have. I don't remember. I hope we did. Yeah. The other two games? Yeah, I'm sure people were starting Noah Pham. Injuries happen.

It's fine if you want to eliminate those games, but it's still not great for... Yeah. I still see a lot of bad games here. We're also talking about a 23-year-old, I mean, 22-year-old last year, tight end in his second year in the league. That's fair.

Yeah. Right. And this is a position that just has these big breakouts and they happen late in drafts. And yeah, that's why tight end's great. Okay, you know what else is great? Golf is great. The Open Championship has arrived.

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Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, Dave, so how many tight ends are off the board so far in your tiers? I believe the number is 11. Yes, it is. So that gets us to streamers and sleepers. And that's a big group. This is the last group for you.

So it's everyone else. This is basically where I list the rest of the tight ends I think are draftable. These are the other tight ends that play in the NFL. And that's really not that different from the way you see it, Heath. I know you had more players in the other tier, but you said you wouldn't take them before round 11, so it's the same range in terms of draft capital. Okay.

So, well, one player that you had, or maybe give me a few players, Heath, that you see in this tier for Dave, the streamers and sleepers, that you had higher, I guess. Not necessarily in terms of when you're drafting them, but in a higher tier. I know Logan Thomas was one, Ebron, who else? I think the three, or four,

there were four that Dave didn't have yet that I assume are in this tier. I don't actually have Dave's tier in front of me. But Logan Thomas, Austin Hooper, Blake Jarwin, and Eric Ebron. They're all there, right, Dave? I don't believe Hooper or Jarwin are in this tier. That is correct. They are not all there.

So are you a Dalton Schultz guy? No, I'm a Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup. Yeah, and I just think this is another situation where Jason Witten, two years ago, was a borderline top 12 tight end. On this offense, Dalton Schultz last year finished as a borderline top 12 tight end. And I think Blake Jarwin is better than both of them. And they certainly have paid him

as if he's better than both of them. I expect him to get a similar target share what those guys have done and just produce more fantasy points. I don't necessarily, like, I rank Blake Jarwin 12th at tight end and project him for like eight and a half fantasy points per game, which is awful.

So it's not, I'm not saying I think he's going to win you your league, but as a low end streamer who has considerably more upside, if, and when one of those three Dallas Cowboys wide receivers gets hurt. Um, I do like the fact that he plays on an offense that we expect to quite possibly lead the NFL

in passing yards. To be clear, you said that he's better than, that Dalton Schultz you think is better than Witten. You meant as a football player, not as a broadcaster, right? I think that Blake Jarwin is better than Dalton Schultz and Dalton Schultz is better than Jason Witten as both a tight end and a broadcaster. And I've never heard the other two be a broadcaster, but – Yeah, it's a high bar.

Okay, so this is a joke. I actually thought – I really like Jason Witten. And Jason Witten is much, much better than I am, so I should be kinder to him. He's also going to be a Hall of Fame tight end, but toward the end of his career, yeah. Right. Yeah, okay. So you should just be drafting for upside at this point, right?

Pretty much. Who's got it? Yeah, I don't ever draft. You need to have your tight end by now, honestly. You probably should but this is a spot where if you do already have a tight end you could grab another one um and i've got an eye on adam troutman in every draft i'm in i think he might be that guy this year that you draft late and ends up being great. His film's fun. And I think he's got room to improve in his second season with a good opportunity to pick up some target share in an offense.

That's routinely use their tight ends to score points over the past several years in new Orleans. So I Troutman's my favorite guy on this list. And it's someone I'm looking for where if I have to start him week one, it's against Green Bay. It's not the best matchup in the world. I'll do it, but really I'm drafting him because I think he's got big-time sleeper potential. The other guys that are behind him, there are some that are like that.

Cole Komet fits that profile. Maybe Gasicki fits that profile a little bit, but there's also Logan Thomas logan thomas is in this tier gronk is in this tier guys that are just you know maybe they get you close to 10 ppr points more often than not nothing sexy nothing fun but something someone that'll help your help pad your stats a little bit with the occasional touchdown mixed in or in the case of gronk that's how he's going to get the majority of his points this year is via touchdowns so maybe a couple weeks this year he'll have like five catches to go along with it a couple things one i actually have oj

howard over grunk um he was better last year when they were both healthy and i think if he's if he's recovered then he's most certainly a better athlete and a better downfield threat than grunk is at this stage of their careers i mean some people might say that he's recovered, then he's most certainly a better athlete and a better downfield threat than Gronk is at this stage of their careers. I mean, some people might say that he's at one point most talented tight end in football. No, I didn't say that. And is it time for the Cole Komet one positive, one negative stat that you created? I haven't done a good to bad stat for Cole Komet, but sure. Yes. Give me your one positive, one negative stat for Cole Komet. The positive one, I think a lot of people have said already.

If you look at the Bears' last six games, including the playoffs, yes, the Bears made the playoffs last year. Cole Komet out-targeted Jimmy Graham 34-17. And that's fantastic. Like, clear number one tight end for the Bears in those last six games. Unfortunately, Graham's still on the team, which is why that matters, but should make you feel good.

The negative stats, in those same six games, Graham scored 52.7 PPR fantasy points. Komet scored 43.2. Yeah. Right. He had an 18% target share, which I think you'd take, right?

That's what Dallas Goddallas got her projected for right uh what was the i'm assuming it was touchdowns that made the difference in the ppr points it was partial it was a lot of it was touchdowns most of it was touchdowns also though like jimmy graham was one of the least efficient tight ends to see as many targets as he did last year like six six yards per target, nine yards per reception. Really, really awful stuff. Cole Komet was worse in both regards. Yeah. Okay.

That's not good. I think that what I've noticed, I've given out these statistics on different shows, but I already said we've had surprise players in the top five. Three years in a row, we've had a number two tight end get into the top five, and none of them had even 600 yards as rookies. So it does happen, and Logan Thomas wasn't a rookie, but he was top five, and Darren Waller wasn't a rookie, but he was top five two years ago

and last year, obviously. So this is a position that gives you these nice surprises and targets. To me, that is the most important thing. Almost every top five tight end over the last five years has been first or second on his team in targets. I think the only exception was Robert Tunyon, and he was three or four targets behind number two. So you've got to be among your target leaders.

And Troutman, I don't know that he's going to be second. That's the thing. But he could be third. Maybe he could be second. That would be surprising over Kamara. But he could be third, and it's going to be hard for him to be top five, but top eight, something like that. I mean, that could definitely happen. So I know that's what you're excited about, right?

The role that Troutman could play. And he was a third-round pick. Travis Kelsey was a third-round pick. Granted, it was like 30 picks earlier that Troutman could play. And he was a third round pick. Travis Kelsey was the third round pick. Granted, it was like 30 picks earlier than Troutman overall. Kittle was a fifth round pick, but you get good tight ends in the third round in the NFL draft. There are 142 targets vacated in this New Orleans offense from Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook leaving the team. 21 touchdowns to Saints tight ends over the last two seasons. They were tied for the eighth most tight ends in 2020. Eighth most touchdowns and tight ends in 2020.

Tied for the second most touchdowns and tight ends in 2019. The target share, I hope it ends up working out Troutman's way where he's third. I think he's going to have to be third at best unless there's an injury again. And he's just going to need a's going to have to be third at best unless there's an injury again. He's just going to need a high catch rate to boost the efficiency there. I think the touchdowns could be in his favor. He's a big guy. He's tough to take down. I could see him being a reliable red zone option for Jameis, who's leaned on

tight ends going back to his college days. If Jameis is the guy, I really like Troutman. If it's Taysom Hill, then I like Troutman. Maybe you can break a little bit on that. I think over the past two years, Jared Cook has shown us the recipe. It's the reason I don't have Troutman projected very high because I don't ever believe it.

But each of the past two years, Jared Cook has had some value because he's scored 16 touchdowns on 125 targets. You should never, ever, ever, I don't think, bet on somebody doing that. But he's done it two years in a row and been useful despite the fact that he averages like 40 receiving yards per game. I don't know how much of that was related to Breeze and if they'll score passing touchdowns at the same rate they have the past two years but he like his path to being a fantasy relevant player i think is the jared cook path he needs

to score at a very high rate and what about tyler higby where's the love for tyler higby because he's definitely i think a lot of people are going to see him in a higher tier than this and you have him basically at the bottom of your tier yeah maybe a little bit of this is me just being burned by him last year i was extremely bullish on tyler higby and he ended up not being the factor that i thought he would be i i think this is still gonna be an offense that attacks downfield and and leans on the receivers a little bit more. And Higby is still going to have his fair share of pass blocking duties in this offense. Stafford did tight ends. I've done the work on that. Anywhere from 21 to 22%

of all of his throws have gone to tight ends three of the past four years. Anywhere from 10 to 26.9% of his total touchdowns have gone to tight ends over the past four years. Yeah, there's an opportunity there with Everett gone. Sure, that Higby is worth a late pick. Yes, he's in that same vein as Blake Jarwin. He's in a potent offense. He's a solid player.

He might be good for your fantasy squad. But fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. It's kind of how I feel about him. be good for your fantasy squad, but fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice. Shame on me. It's kind of how I feel about him. And I think that he'll be, he might be third on the team and targets over the course of the year, but that might also end up being like 80 targets. Yeah.

I think like I we're, we're definitely in the 80 target range in terms of projections. I've got him at 75. Um, cause he's the only guy I have behind him projected for more. I like Higby more than I like the Bucks tight ends. I like him more than I like the Patriots tight

ends. I like him more than I like the second-year tight ends. I still don't really like him that much, but I've got him 16th. There's been a lot of buzz about Jacob Harris, and he worries me a little bit. He was a wide receiver slash tight end. And I'm afraid that he could work his way

into that Everett role. And that would be bad. Like Higby needs to take over a good portion of those Everett targets to be someone we can rely on. Yeah, if you combine Higby and Everett, they had good production last year. Higby, Everett has barely missed any games in his career. So you don't have a big sample of

Tyler Higby playing without Gerald Everett. But what you do have is five games at the end of the 2019 season. Everett missed three of those games and played a combined four snaps in the other two. So we're going to say he didn't play in those five games. A total of four snaps in five games. And Tyler Higbee had the best finish ever, basically. He was on pace for 1,670 yards on 179 targets. We don't expect that. But the bottom line is, he was the best tight end in fantasy

for those five games when Gerald Everett didn't play. That's the only sample size we have. And that's injured. That was with Jared Goff. That was with Jared Goff throwing a ton. And, you know, he won't replicate those numbers. But that's a case for Tyler Higby. That's a good stat for Tyler Higby.

I don't have a bad stat yet, but they just gave you all the bad stats. All right. I think the bad stat bad stat yet, but they just gave you all the bad stats. All right. I think the bad stat is the rest of his career. Yeah. The bad stat is the rest of his career.

Sure. Okay. But it is hard. It's hard to find a tight end who can do that. I mean, I don't want to completely overlook those five games

when you got the opportunity. Right. And I think this is the range. Like, there are exceptional five-game stretches from, like, there's an exceptional season or two from Austin Hooper and Eric Ebron. Like, this is the range where you can find

that type of exceptional glimmer in the past. Hunter Henry, for goodness sake. But Hooper, I mean, Hooper was with the Falcons. That was a completely different situation. And he was, by the way, this was not a great stretch for Tyler Higbee. He was the first tight end in the Super Bowl era

with four straight games with seven catches and 100 yards. It was, in some respects, in that one respect, it was the best stretch in tight end history. But you're right. I mean, four games out of four years.

You're right, though, in that you can make a nice case for a lot of these players. So it's not like they're complete junk, but they're tight end. So they'll probably end up being

most of them. I'm sorry. Four games in five years. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. No, we don't five years. Yeah. Okay. We don't have to argue that point anymore. Any final thoughts?

Think about this position before you go into your fantasy draft. How many tight ends have we talked about today that you've nodded and said, oh yeah, I'd like to have that guy on your team. If it isn't that many, then you should probably target one of those first three tight ends with

one of your first two picks i i just want one of my top eight really i'd rather not have to deal with the heartache of the rest of this group and it can pay off it has a couple of times over the years and we've also had a ton of busts so my my strategy is pretty much Kelsey in round one if I'm late, Kittle or Waller in round three if they're there, Andrews in round five, I'm thrilled, or I'll wait until seven or eight and take Goddard or Fant. The nice thing is that receiver is deep, quarterback is

deep. You could literally start your draft going nothing but running backs in a tight end and not feel bad about it later. That's going to do it for the tight end tiers. We've got a mailbag publishing on Friday. Looking forward to that. Send us your Apple podcast questions.

Too late to get them in for this week's show, but we'll have more mailbags, obviously, throughout the off season. Not really off season anymore. We'll have more mailbags coming up. We'll read your emails throughout our training. Training camps are in less than two weeks. Apple podcast questions as well.

I know. It's nuts. Thanks to Heath and Dave and Ben. I'm Adam. Talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.