Fantasy Football Today - The Consensus Top 30 Players for 2020! Breaking Down Each Player (06/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 15, 2020

Christian McCaffrey is #1! Yeah, that's the easy part, but who is next? We are counting down our Top 30 PPR players based on our consensus rankings. First, #30-21 (3:36) in the rankings. We debate Tyler Lockett vs. Juju Smith-Schuster vs. Adam Thielen, and Kenny Golladay vs. Calvin Ridley. Aaron Jones was a Top 3 RB in 2019 but he barely cracks the overall Top 30 in 2020. What's up with that? ... Moving on to #20-11 (31:00), we talk about the TEs plus a big group of RBs that includes Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler ... On to the Top 10 (51:00)! We tell you why we love Miles Sanders, why Tyreek Hill belongs here despite a lack of catches, why Davante Adams could be WR1 this season and how to sort out the Top 6 picks ... Email us at [e-mail]  'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Big week here for the CBS Sports crew.

Welcome to Fantasy Football Today. We're talking rankings, the top 30 players, and we also have sleepers, breakouts, and busts coming up later this week. But it's all available on the website now. We've got great content for you at cbssports.com slash fantasy as the product is out this week, and we're really, really excited. Make sure you're watching CBS Sports HQ this week as well. I'm Adam Azer.

We've got Dave,, Jamie and Heath here. Heath is back from vacation. His guns are exposed for YouTube. Looking fit over there. Heath, welcome back. It's funny because I had been working out a little bit before I went on vacation.

I, the only workout I did on vacation was 12 ounce curls. And that must've been good for my arms because you've noticed now you didn't notice before. Well, I don't know. Just it's a very revealing shirt you've got. And we're on video. You go to YouTube dot com slash fantasy football today and you can start watching us. What's up, Dave?

Hey, dude. How are you? Great. Jamie, what's up? How you doing, bud? Does your shirt say go away? Yeah, it's Oscar the Groucho. Oh, what's up? How you doing, bud? Does your shirt say go away? Yeah, it's an Oscar the Grouch shirt. Oh, all right.

Well, that's very welcoming for our YouTube audience. Just for you. Here's what we're going to do. It could be a longer show today. We're going to talk about 30 players. The case for, the case against, and a little bit of discussion. Let's knock out some news and notes real quick. Sonny Michel recovering from foot surgery in May.

He had the ninth most carries in the NFL that last year. Didn't have a very good year. Tennessee working toward a long-term deal with Derrick Henry and Antonio Brown is not going to go to jail. So that's good for him. He wants to get back into the NFL. Let's briefly talk about the Sonny Michel thing here.

Well, Heath, we're welcoming you back so you get the first word on the patriots backfield yeah i think right before i left for vacation i decided man sony michelle's probably being drafted too late the patriots are behaving like a team that wants to play good defense and run the ball about a hundred times a game and their quarterback room suggests that's probably what they should do i thought thought Michelle was undervalued in terms of ADP. Now it's probably appropriately valued. There's some risk there.

May want to fire back up the Damian Harris as a 13th round pick talk. Would you guys take a flyer on Darrington Evans or Damian Harris? Evans. Evans. The problem with Harris is like

Tony Michelle could miss half the season and it could just be Rex Burkhead and Brandon Bolden and James White like we don't even know for sure that a Tony Michelle injury is good is great for Damon Harris it's true it's a good schedule though to start the year for the Patriots on the ground they've got Miami terrible offensive and then and then Vegas

okay well without any further ado let's promote things well, without any further ado, let's promote things. And then without any further ado, we'll get into the rankings. So yeah, we have a mock draft tomorrow on Twitch. If you haven't been following us on Twitch, you're missing out.

Twitch.com slash FF today, Tuesday, 7 p.m. Eastern. The entire CBS Fantasy crew is going to be mocking Twitch.com slash FF today. Sleepers on the podcast, sleepers are on Tuesday, 7 p.m. Eastern. The entire CBS Fantasy crew is going to be mocking twitch.com slash FF today. Sleepers on the podcast. Sleepers are on Tuesday. Breakouts are on Wednesday. Busts are on Friday this week.

And let's rock and roll here. Number 30. This is PPR consensus rankings. So we're averaging out the rankings for our analysts here. The number three running back in non-PPR, the number two running back in PPR last year was Aaron Jones. He is 30th in our consensus ranking. He tied with Christian McCaffrey for 19 touchdowns,

total touchdowns to lead the position. Yeah, he had a great year, certainly. And he's number 30. Dave, give me the case for Aaron Jones. Heath, the case against. Jamie, you'll jump in with some discussion. Well, he scored 19 touchdowns in 16 games in 2016. That's a pretty good start. Packers offense is a good one. Offensive line is good. Some say they've improved it after getting rid of Bulaga right tackle.

He's not going to be the only running back in that backfield, but he's going to be the best one. He is a capable pass catcher. It remains to be seen if he can be a good volume receiver when Devontae Adams is on the field with him. And speaking of Devontae Adams, he's really the only receiver that Green Bay has. Who's their number two guy? It could be Alan Lazar. Jay Sternberger might step up. But Aaron Jones might be asked to shoulder plenty of work.

He's in a contract here. Maybe he balls out one more time, gets that touchdown per game average high. One per game has been pretty good for him over his last however many games that he's been on fire and in that role for the Green Bay Packers. So I understand why people want to draft him, and I understand why he's in our top 30 here in our consensus rankings Heath yeah weird thing me being against because I think I'm the high guy on Jones but listen he's going to lose at least a third of his touchdowns from last year he could lose even more the back they added A.J. Dillon profiles as a short yardage guy Jamal Williams was used a lot in the passing game Jones didn't see very many targets except for the games that Devontae Adams missed.

So there's regression coming, probably in both workload and efficiency. I guess that's the case against him. Jamie, where do you stand? I'm not going to have a lot of stock in Aaron Jones. I think just the addition of A.J. Dillon, the fact that the touchdowns will come down, the majority of his receiving production came when Devontae Adams was out. To me, it's just

too costly for what I think the problems could be for him. Who is going to have a lot of Aaron Jones? Real quick follow. Me. Well, me if he's available in the third round. I think he's okay as a third-round pick. It might be a little bit more...

Like, I'm 29th in my PPR rankings. I think he's okay there. But the addition of Dylan kind of says a bunch of things, right? Because this is a big physical back who's like Derrick Henry and could literally step into the role of short-yardage, goal-line, touchdown vulture. And that would crush aaron jones all right well he's had 11 games in his career with 15 or more carries in every game

all 11 he scored 14 or more non-ppr fantasy points that's just tremendous he's a stud when he gets to work number 29 is mike evans he was the number eight wide receiver in non-PPR, number 14 in PPR, but he only played 13 games, had a really, really good season. Jamie, make the case for Mike Evans, who we're seeing kind of creep in our drafts anyway. Sometimes he creeps toward the back end of round three, and he's 29th in the consensus rankings. I think the fact that he's going to have probably some better quarterback play,

it may not be better downfield throws probably some better quarterback play may not be better downfield throws, but better quarterback play just in general, they'll have the ball a little bit more because the lack of turnovers from James Winston. You know, if they're going to stay in 12 personnel, I'm going to have just him and Chris Godwin as the as the two receivers on the field, it's going to significantly help his target share. And I think, you know, the value to me is the best part about Mike Evans, the fact that you can get him in round three, um, for a guy that has the ability to be double digits and scores, uh, as he's proven to be, um, he could still be, you know, I think in the 90 catch range, uh, has 1500 yard potential, you know, just based on what this offense for

Bruce Arians can, can put out there. So he's a very good value pick. The problem will be, as we've seen from him, if he doesn't get you to 10-plus touchdowns, then that's where he tends to let you down. Dave against Mike Evans. Well, it's hard to be against him because his production's been so good. He's had over 1,000 yards every year of his career.

And over his career, he's averaged 9.28 targets per game. He's failed to get nine targets per game just twice. So he's gotten a lot of volume, but I went back and looked at Tom Brady's entire history of throwing to outside wide receivers. And of the 14 times, there've been 14 times that a receiver has averaged nine targets per game from Tom Brady. Only once has that receiver been an outside type of receiver. And it was Randy Moss in 2007 when he set the world on fire with 23 million touchdowns. I'm concerned about Mike Evans. I'm worried that he's just not the type of, he lines up in the spot that typically doesn't get a lot of work than Tom Brady and certainly doesn't attack the middle of the field

as much as everybody else in the Buccaneers offense will. I think adding Gronkowski is going to cost him in the red zone. If OJ Howard keeps playing, he's going to cost him in the red zone and Godwin's going to continue to take work away from him in the red zone. So I don't think it's a, I think he can get over a thousand yards again. That would be seven in a row, but I don't think he's getting near eight touchdowns. I think, though, the one thing about the offense, though, Dave, that's not really a Brady thing. That's an offense.

That's a Patriots offense thing. Yeah, who's the quarterback of the Bucs offense? Yeah, but the point would be is that's the offense the Patriots ran. That's the personnel that they tried to give Tom Brady. Well, Randy Moss played for them for several years, and he only one time got the huge numbers that come with getting that type of target. I think if Tom Brady had Mike Evans

for seven years, he'd probably put up good numbers. That's the question. Is it a tendency thing or is it a personnel thing? Brandon Cooks had a good year. He didn't have a Mike Evans year. Well, he had a Mike Evans every other year. Yeah, but he didn't Evans every other year. Yeah.

But he didn't get, but he didn't get like 150 targets. He had like 120 ish. Right. I think like, and that's the problem for me is they threw 630 passes last year. I would, they may lose 10% of that just because they're not chasing the score.

And just because Tom Brady's not throwing interceptions, I would expect more run rush attempts, fewer pass attempts for Tampa Bay this year. And they added Rob Gronkowski, who's the combination of Gronk and O.J. Howard will probably increase their tight end target share. This is not a guy who's really consistently put up more than 75 catches.

I think he's done it twice in his career. So he's going to be a little bit behind in terms of that. I don't think, like, I think Brady can throw the ball downfield just fine. I just don't think if they are a good team like we expect them to be, he's going to spend a lot, very many plays, dropping back and holding onto the ball for four seconds and taking a chance of somebody hitting him. And Evans doesn't do a lot around the line of scrimmage.

All right, let's lump these next three wide receivers together. 28, 27, and 26 in the consensus PPR rankings are Tyler Lockett, who was 13th in PPR last year, but he was a top three wide receiver, I believe, before he hurt his leg in week 10, I want to say. Juju Smith-Schuster, obviously coming off a terrible year, but great in 2018. His fantasy point total in 2018

would have made him the number two wide receiver in 2019. And Adam Thielen is 26. So it's Tyler Lockett, Juju Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen. Jamie, let's have everybody rank those three. We'll go Jamie, Heath, Dave. How would you rank Lockett, Juju, and Thielen? Juju, Thielen, Lockett. Heath.

Juju, Thielen, Lockett. dave the exact opposite locket feeling juju okay yeah i know dave you're a little low on juju if you want to start the conversation there um yeah why don't we do that you you have some concerns about a guy who had 1400 yards and seven touchdowns on 162 targets two seasons ago with antonio brown it's pretty good. And he had it because Antonio Brown was drawing a lot of tight coverage or defenses were playing zone and he was gobbling it all up. And I don't want to be the guy that dislikes Juju.

I like Juju. I just like the other guys a little bit better. I still think he's going to get a good target share. He's going to – listen, last year he tied for the team lead in targets per game in a terrible year for the Steelers. It's not happening again. He's going to lead the team in targets again. Roethlisberger looks like he's getting better. So I can't make the case saying that Roethlisberger is going to be a huge problem. And that's going to cost Juju again in 2020. I just think that there's more mouths to feed and it's going to continue to hurt Juju.

Almost the same thing as Mike Evans, where there's more red zone threats. There's more people who are going to get looks from Ben Roethlisberger. It's not going to be Juju for 10 targets per game. He's going to get around eight targets per game, and that's still pretty good. I think he can get you over a thousand yards. I think he can get you about six touchdowns. Heath, talk about the other guys here, Thielen and Lockett. You like Juju better than them, but you go J feeling locket same with uh with jamie feeling we have some target concerns

like probably with locket too so i'm assuming that's the deciding factor for you you probably project a lot more targets for juju yeah i mean i think like feeling there are multiple concerns and i go back and forth i think i've i've moved him almost every time I've changed my rankings just because he is on the wrong side of 30. He was hurt for most of last year. We haven't seen him have great success without Stefan Diggs drawing the number one corner in most situations. He's used to playing a lot of slot routes,

and I don't know if it's going to be him playing the slot or Jefferson. But for the most part, yes, for Lockett and for Thiel and it comes down to these were two of the most run heavy teams in the NFL Russell Wilson has talked a lot about Seattle throwing the ball more but I would think if they were going to throw the ball more they would have brought in someone to fill in at running back other than Carlos Hyde who's not exactly a great pass catching back they don't have that on their roster so there's also a little bit of concern with Lockett. I don't think there's any reason to rank DK Metcalf ahead of Tyler Lockett or to draft DK Metcalf ahead of Tyler Lockett.

But there's a 30% chance this year that DK Metcalf's the number one and Tyler Lockett's the number two. Jamie, these three guys... I think he's only 29, by the way. What's that? He's only 29. He's not on the wrong side of 30 yet. Okay.

Okay. He looks old. Lockett, Juju, Thielen, how many of these guys do you see as league winners? Zero. Juju's good for sure. Well, a league winner? Oh, yeah.

I mean, he could be a 1,500-yard, 10- be a 1500 yard 10 touchdown guy could be league winners i'm not drafting them thinking that they're going to be the ones that pull me into the fantasy i would have no problem if all three are my number one receiver this year that's a better way to put it i don't know if they're going to be the reason they're not going to it's not like well i mean you know if juju does what if juju does what we were talking about him doing last year, which I think he's still capable of doing, then he can be a league winner because we were drafting him as a top five wide receiver last year. I think the really interesting thing with, and the reason I said Juju and not the other two, Pittsburgh has a great defense and they might just continue to be more run heavy like they were last year. But we think that happened because Ben was gone. If Ben Roethlisberger comes back and they're all of a sudden a 600-pass attempt team again,

then Juju has top two or three wide receiver upside. I don't really think that Thiel and Lockett have that same upside. I think one thing, though, we keep saying great defense for some of these teams and bad defense on these teams. Great defense doesn't necessarily mean a bad thing for the offense, though, because they're going to have the ball more. With what could be a bad run game for the steelers because we've seen them be a bad running team for uh you know the last two years essentially um by comparison to where they were i think that just you know short area throws uh you know more times

where roethlisberger is looking for juju because he's gonna line up in the slot so i i think it's not necessarily a bad thing that their defense is good. Right. How was the Saints defense last year? It was good. Yeah. Michael Thomas was good. Yeah.

All right. Let's move on. Let's move on. Number 25 is Clyde Edwards-Elair, the rookie, the last pick of round one of the NFL draft. Jamie loves Clyde Edwards-Elair. Is anybody nervous about taking him 25th overall? Does that feel like...

I know Jamie would be thrilled to get him 25th overall. Does anybody feel like that would be too early for Clyde Edwards-Elair? I would not take him there. I would. I'd be fine with it. Heath, what are your concerns? I'll have fun making a case against Clyde Edwards-Elair.

The concern is the same thing that the concern is for all the rookies. We're going into a very unique season and he, with the chiefs, I fully expect Damian Williams going to start week one. And when Damian Williams has been healthy as a part of this chiefs offense, he's been very good. I don't think we get to a situation unless Williams gets hurt or is just bad, like has gone over the hill without us knowing it.

I don't think we get to a situation where Williams is getting fewer than 10 to 12 touches per game. And that puts a little bit of a cap on Clyde Edwards, the layer ceiling, as well as there is some risk that he gets to camp and struggles with something the chiefs want him to do. And he's, he's just not somebody you can start early in the year.

And Jamie, you see the certainly-winning upside for Clyde Ebersole. I'm not saying he doesn't, but it's what entices you with him. I'm sorry? You see league-winning upside here. Yes, I do. I mean, I think you're going to see him get the majority of the touches. And that's not going to be a consistent 20-plus touch guy on guy on a week to week basis because Damian Williams will have a role. And if he's out, I think the other guys that are there, whether it's, uh,

you know, Thompson or Daryl Williams or whoever still makes the roster, we'll also have a role as well. But I think he's going to get the high level touches that we talk about. I think he's going to be the one significantly, uh, being used in the passing game. Um, I think he's got the chance to score 10 plus touchdowns if he does get 15 plus touches on a week-to-week basis so uh i'll draft that type of upside i think he's the type of guy that is a league winner yeah so i think he's the type of player that you can you

can draft and and and start on a week-to-week basis and um it may take two or three weeks i don't think it's going to be miles sanders it's week 11 that it happens, but I think by week three or four, we could see him as the best running back in Kansas City and one of the best running backs. Alright, we're going to lump our next two together. 24 and 23 in the rankings are Calvin Ridley and Kenny Galladay.

Ridley played only 13 games. He had 866 yards and 7 touchdowns and he actually had just two fewer catches than Kenny Galladay, who had in 16 games, 65 catches, just under and seven touchdowns, and he actually had just two fewer catches than Kenny Galladay, who had in 16 games, 65 catches, just under 1,200 yards, and 11 touchdowns. And he was on pace for 1,280 yards and 14 touchdowns with Matthew Stafford in eight games with Matthew Stafford.

And he led the NFL, by the way, Kenny Galladay, in targets inside the 10-yard line. Dave, who do you like better, Ridley or Galladay? I like Galladay better, especially in non-PPR. And that's probably going to be an unpopular opinion on the podcast, but I like what he's capable of doing in the Lions' offense, and he's proven it now. He proved it in spurts a couple of years ago,

and then last year he just went all out. And he even did it without Matthew Stafford, a quarterback. He's a deep ball threat. He's a red red zone threat he can make plays after the catch he's he can definitely get a lot of volume from week to week as well and i believe that kenny galladay can finish this year as a number one fantasy receiver i think i think ridley can too i think ridley's going to be in a great position you know we talk about you know not having to face double teams ridley's not going to have to do much of that. I know that he's

progressing in the right direction as far as a third-year receiver who's got a lot of potential, matched his numbers from his rookie year in fewer games last season. I like both these guys. I'd love it if these were my round two and round three picks on draft day. Does anybody want to make the case for Calvin Ridley ahead of

Kenny Galladay? Yeah, in PPR, would um i i just worry like i don't know that golladay really has much of a chance of i got ridley could get 130 targets with julio jones playing 16 games i don't know what the chances are of go all day getting that and his catch rate's always been so low that he's just probably not going to be an 80-catch guy unless he gets a ton of targets. And non-PPR, I agree with Dave. I would actually take Galladay over Ridley, but in PPR, I'll take Ridley. Jamie, I want to give you a stat.

Tell me what you think for Calvin Ridley. So he had a great year, but it wasn't just when Sanu left. It was when Hooper and Sanu were both out. Three games without Hooper and Sanu, he got 34.4% of his targets, 36.8% of his yards, 28.6% of his touchdowns in 23% of his season. So there was a three-game stretch

after the Sanu trade without Austin Hooper. That's when Calvin Ridley went bananas. But when it was just no Sanu and Hooper was in, he wasn't nearly as involved and he wasn't as good. Does that matter to you? They've replaced Hooper with Hurst in theory, but obviously they haven't replaced Sanu. Does that matter to you?

No, I just think he's a good player that's ascending. I mean, look, Hurst has had an injury problem in his career, so that's something you've got to keep in mind. So if he's out for any stretch and Russell Gage does not step into the Sanu role, as at least that's going to be his opportunity right away, then Ridley has the chance to be a significant contributor. But I just think he's, he's shown you enough that he's got the potential to take that next step in

his third year to be one of these third year breakouts. You know, I look at what like our, I don't know what he hasn't projected for. Our projections have him for you know, 77, a thousand and nine. I wouldn't be surprised if the yards and maybe even the touchdowns are better than that. You know, so he's just got so much upside. And, you know, after this new trade, before he got hurt, so there was a six-game span that they both played together. And as you referenced, Adam Hooper was hurt for part of that. But he outscored Julio Jones in that six-game stretch.

You know, so he was their guy in terms of production. And then Julio just blew up in the final three games when Ridley was out. The thing that I think both these guys sort of are, are great upside plays. And, you know, if you want to keep using the phrase league winners, they're going to throw the ball so much there, there just have shown you that last year was, was, you know, Detroit's sort of, okay, we're going to open up the offense a little bit. Ben's talked about this, Ben Gretch, about how the target, the, the receiving targets receiving targets, the players that are catching passes from Matthew Stafford, changed post-Calvin Johnson to what we saw, I guess, Gallaudet.

And obviously the Falcons as well. They led the NFL in pass attempts last year. So these are guys that you gravitate toward. They're both young. They're both high upside plays. They're going to score a lot of touchdowns. And if the catches can ever get to the 80-plus range, they're going to be dominant forces. And there's And if the catches can ever get to the 80 plus range, they're going to be dominant forces.

And there's nothing either of them can't do on the field. Well, that's the other huge thing. We can talk about other receivers that probably not in the top 30, but guys who maybe aren't red zone threats. Maybe they're only big play threats. Both of these guys are big play threats and red zone threats for their teams.

Yeah. There's kind of an underrated stat that we, and I'm going to talk about it now. I just want to give it out though. We talk about the bucks defense improving, how they got better second half of the year, the Falcons defense, the first eight games of the year,

they went one in seven. They give up 31 points per game. The last eight games of the year, they went six and two. They gave up 18.6 points per game, but they still were throwing the ball more than 40 times per game. Maybe it's because they didn't have a run game, but it is something interesting, something to keep an eye per game. Maybe it's because they didn't have a run game,

but it is something interesting, something to keep an eye on here. Heath, let's talk about Josh Jacobs. He's an interesting player. He was 14th in non-PPR. He was 21st in PPR last year. He was a workhorse. He dominated near the goal line, but he only had 20 catches in 13 games. Josh Jacobs is 22nd in our PPR consensus rankings.

Make the case for Josh Jacobs. This is right about where I have him. It's nice to know that assuming he plays 16 games, he's probably going to be relatively close to 300 carries. They did not really spell him too much in the running game. I would expect the Raiders offense is going to be a little bit better this year with all the weaponry that they added that will give him a chance, a chance to score a few more touchdowns. He is, I think pretty good when they throw him the football, they've just got way too many other pieces that are good at those types of

routes. So I don't think they're going to, but if they ever give him a chance in the passing game, he has the ability to just a couple of times year, to break those big plays on one target. There's some receiving game upside, even if there's not a lot of target upside. Dave, the case against Josh Jacobs. In PPR, he can't be viewed as a number one fantasy running back. He just doesn't catch the ball enough. I think the addition of Bowden and the re-signing of Richard kind of tells

you what the Raiders want to do. They don't want to put too much work on Josh Jacobs plate. They want to use them certainly as a ball carrier and he is going to be their featured back. But if he's not catching 35 plus passes, what are his chances of finishing as a top 12 running back? He's going to need to score a ton of touchdowns. I don't know if we can count on him for that in non PPR.

He's there. There's no question. He was 10th in fantasy points per game in non-PPR last year, 15th in PPR. Schedule also gets hard starting in week two. And I'm still not sold on the Raiders' defense or their pass game taking big steps forward. Jacobs, I think, can still take a good step forward. I don't know if it's going to be two steps forward. It might just be one. I'm nervous to use him in PPR. So Jamie, we see Jacobs at 22. Miles Sanders is top 12 in the consensus rankings. I'm pretty sure. And is it just the passing game? Is that basically what separates them to the catch? Yeah, I think so. I do think that Jacobs will rush for more yards

than Sanders. He'll probably have an opportunity to score more touchdowns on the ground than Sanders, but Sanders will do more total yards and should do more in the passing game. But I mean, if Sanders were to get, excuse me, if, if Jacobs were to get, you know, 10 to 15 more catches, he could be an absolute, absolute monster. Now you still got to factor in some of the injury concerns, you know, from what we saw last year,

you know, I like the fact that he came back when the Raiders were still in playoff contention and fought through the shoulder injury, but you know, will he, you know, have to get shut down at any point if they're out of contention, like we saw last year where they were trying to,

you know, maybe baby him a little bit, but it's a very good offensive line. I do think that the passing game, I understand Dave's, you know, concern that it's maybe not going to be great, but it be better um uh if henry ruggs is you know as advertised so there there's a lot to like about what this offense could be um and a lot of you

know vegas is certainly telling you that they expect the raiders to be better no i guess it's a bad way of phrasing um betters are telling you uh, the odds are telling you that they expect, um, the Raiders to be better. So, you know, if, if their team does improve and, and we see, uh, you know, some more situations, I go back to that chiefs game. I think it was the first chiefs game. He left with an injury. Um, he was having a monster first, I think at like 99 yards in the first half. And that was when their run defense was, was miserable. Uh, I forget who said it, but, uh, somebody said that, you know, how do you stayed in that game, I think it was somebody from the Chiefs, I think said, had he stayed in that game, that they probably would have pulled off the upset

because he was having such a great performance. Yeah, he's awesome. He's got a huge ceiling. It's just a matter of can he stay healthy and maybe do a little bit more in the passing. What is the, now I'm curious, I need to find a place to bet the, what's the Raiders over under up to for wins?

I thought it was seven and a half. You know. to find a place to bet the... What's the Raiders over-under up to for wins? I thought it was seven and a half. They were in a group of a bunch of teams. That's an improvement for them. I wonder if them moving to Las Vegas is a factor in that. They went seven last year, right? Las Vegas are just going to bet the over. They went seven last year?

They took a killing on when the hockey team went to Vegas and they had an over-under toll and everybody in town took the over. They had a killing on when the hockey team went to Vegas and they had an over-under toll and everybody in town took the over. They had to pay it out. All right. One more player here in the first 10 that we're going to talk about it is Cooper Cup. Interesting year for Cooper Cup. He was the number four wide receiver in fantasy last year in both formats. His first eight games, he had 87 targets. His last eight games, he had 47 targets. Still managed to catch five touchdowns in those eight games, but he basically disappeared in those eight

games. He had one game with more than 53 yards, no games with more than 65 yards, but of course stayed a red zone, green zone, gold zone, all zones factor for Jared Goff. So Cooper Cup is number 21 in the consensus rankings here. And I'll throw it back to Jamie.

Give me a quick case for Cooper Cup. I mean, he's Jared Goff's best buddy. So I think that certainly helps. When they made this switch to run, again, more 12 personnel for them, when Brandon Cooks was banged up and they were struggling to run the ball, those two guys are going to be on the field, Cup and Robert Woods, a ton. And Cup has been such a great asset in the red zone for Jared Goff. So if this run game does struggle, if they can't, you know,

pick things up back from where they were a year ago, or two years ago, excuse me, it's going to be a lot on the passing game. And Cup and Robert Woods should have a big, big opportunity, along with Tyler Higby too, but just in terms of the receivers. So Cup is one of those guys, like, I feel very similar to Galladay and Ridley, like, they're a little bit more touchdown dependent than they're going to be, you know, consistently 90-plus catches.

But, you know, what Kup has proven over the first three years of his career, I think, is a good enough track record to show you that he belongs in this range. He is a guy you can count on as your number one receiver and certainly has the upside to be a top 10 receiver once again. Anyone disagree? Nope. No, but I could like the case against would be that four of his last five games, he played less than three quarters of the team's offensive snaps. Like when Tyler Higby went bananas, Cooper cup was still scoring touchdowns but he was he was on the field for like 61 of the last two games 28 of one of those games i think he got was the slot receiver and when they went to two wide receivers he didn't really play outside and he may just be

the outside guy when they go to two receivers now and that may but we've not really seen him play that role a lot yeah the 28. I thought maybe there was injury, but he definitely had the reduced snap count for sure. It was interesting. Okay, we're going to take a quick break here on Fantasy Football today. We've got 20 more players to talk about. We'll do the next 10, starting with DJ Moore, who's 20th in our consensus rankings.

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and stay safe. DJ Moore, 15th best wide receiver in PPR last year. He played 15 games, really only played 14 games in those 14 healthy games on pace for 1,342 yards, only 5 touchdowns, but 152

targets. Dave, case four, DJ Moore. He's the best wide receiver on a team that's going to throw a lot of short area passes, and he's got a great catch rate to go with it. He can make plays after the catch, which is going to be a huge component of what the Panthers are going to do. And he's a really good receiver who should see a few more touchdowns go his way without his target share falling off at all. Okay. Is there a case against DJ Moore?

He's going in the fourth round, by the way, in those fantasy football calculator drafts. That was crazy. That's a steal. Yeah, totally. Heath, is there a case against DJ Moore? I mean, he hasn't scored very many touchdowns so far. I would normally scream

touchdown regression for a guy that had four touchdowns on 135 targets in 2019, but his touchdown rate last year was actually higher than it was in 2018. And they did add Robbie Anderson, who could take a larger share

of the targets than Curtis Samuel did. I don't believe any of the things I just said, but that would be it. Okay. So. He could be the NFL in reception. Yeah.

Like why, why, well, Jamie, why is there such a disconnect between, you know, we've got him 20th overall, middle of round two and fantasy football calculator.

ADP has him in the fourth round. What do you think people are afraid of? Or Heath? Yeah. Well, I'm going to look and see. I wonder if that's just a fantasy football calculator thing.

I will look at the other sites where people are playing for money and not practicing mock drafting. Okay. With some of these things, it happens to our site too.

When you get auto-drafted and if some site hasn't projected low. Maybe. Okay. Yeah, I think it's more that. He's a third-round pick in best ball leagues. I think maybe we're a little higher, but it's mostly

just there's some site where he auto-drafts late. Honestly, I think some people are afraid of Bridgewater. I think that they think that Teddy Bridgewater is going to be... Which is just absurd. I agree. He was Kyle Allen and Will Greer last year. Absolutely. Adam could be his quarterback, and

it'd basically be the same thing as what he had last year. No, you'd have too many off-target throws. All right. George Kittle is next in the rankings. He's number 19, so we have a tight end here. Here's a different question here, because Kelsey is closer to the top 12. How much farther back from Kelsey should Kittle be?

Jamie, how many players do you think should separate those two tight ends? Five to seven. Okay, that sounds about right based on our consensus rankings here. Jamie, the case for George Kittle, by the way, he missed two games this year. Jimmy Garoppolo threw 91 times

in those two games, which is outrageous for him, and they were against the two best matchups in fantasy for tight ends. They were Arizona and Seattle. If he played those two games, I feel so confident he would have outscored Kelsey and been the number one tight end in fantasy because the matchups were great and he was basically as good or a little

bit better on a per-game basis than Kelsey anyway. But Jamie, give me a case for George Kittle, why he should be a top 20 pick. He's the best receiving option on his team, and that's always a nice thing to have. As we saw, as we've seen from him over the last couple of years, we saw it from Gronk for a good portion of his tenure.

We saw him there in Waller last year. He is, he's just an athletic freak. You know what I mean? He's done it without scoring a lot of touchdowns yet. So imagine if he can get to a double digit touchdown season. He's, I just think he's in that part of his career where he's ascending to be one of the greats at his position. I remember we had this conversation with the Mount Rushmore and the best players at their spots.

Is Kittle going to be one of those guys that cracks that group eventually? And I think he can. So there's really not much to say outside of that he's awesome in the right spot at the right time. And if they do start throwing more, if they do struggle to run or their defense does take a step back, and maybe some of the losses that we saw last year or Super Bowl hangover, he could be even better.

As we saw, his best season came, I believe, is with Nick Mullins and without Garoppolo playing, right? Yeah, last year, 2018. There's just a lot to like about what Kittle can do. And what he did last year, he did it on a broken freaking ankle. And he basically averaged the same amount of fantasy points per game in PPR as Allen Robertson, who's a top 10 receiver. So you're drafting a top 10 receiver to be your starting tight end when you draft George Kittle. And he's never had more than

five touchdowns in a single season. That's eventually going to turn and he's going to get like, I think pro football focus has him as the, had him as the best tight end last year. That's fancy tight end last year. Yeah. Well, on a per game basis, the fact that you can get them after Kittle and draft after draft just means that that's a value. Yeah. The only problem with that is where they're going. It's like if you want to look at it, if you're going to draft tight end, you probably have to make the commitment

to one of the two guys at a different spot in your draft because Kelsey's toward the end of round one and Kittle's toward the back end of round two. Right, right. Alright, so the case against Kittle maybe is, look, they drafted a wide receiver in the first round. Brandon Ayuk, maybe Deebo Samuel takes a step forward. They're not a pass-heavy

team, but Kittle seems like a no-brainer in the second round. We've got an interesting stretch of players here after Kittle, or I guess going before Kittle. We've got five running backs here. Let's read the list. We've got Nick Chubb,

Derek Henry, Joe Mixon, and these guys are 18. Chubb is 18. This is not that hard. Chubb is 18. Henry is 17. Mixon is 16. Eckler is 15. Kenyon Drake is 14. Five running backs there. From 14 to 18, it's actually going from best to worst. Kenyon Drake, Austin Eckler, Joe Mixon, Derek Henry, and Nick Chubb. This is PPR. Keep that in mind. We don't expect a ton

of catches from Henry or Chubb or probably even Mixon. He had 35 last year. All right, Heath. Who's your favorite of this five? In full PPR, it's still Austin Eckler. He was, in this format, the best of this group last year, right? And that was with Melvin Gordon playing 12 games. I don't believe that Joshua Kelly or Justin Jackson

are going to get the same volume that Eckler did. Eckler will see his targets come down a little bit because the Chargers aren't going to throw as much, but Tyrod Taylor is not your typical running quarterback who doesn't throw the ball to running backs last time he was a running back Sean McCoy led his team in targets per game so I still think they also do a lot of things with Austin Eckler where he's not lining up as running back on play he He plays some snaps in the slot. They have designed pass plays going specifically to him,

so it's not like a lot of his volume came solely because Phillip Rivers was dumping the ball off real quick when it was designed to go somewhere else. I still think he'll be amongst the leaders in terms of receptions at running back this year, and he'll have more rush volume than he did as well. Dave, the group of five is Drake, Eckler, Mixon, Henry, Chubb. Who's your favorite? In PPR, it's Mixon because he's given us 1,400 total yards

and eight touchdowns on 280 touches each of the last two seasons. The Bengals unlocked him in the second half of last year, averaged over 17 PPR points per game in those eight games last year. They just let him be a patient runner. They threw to him a decent amount. They, their offensive line is going to be better this year. They've got Jonah Williams coming back and left tackle.

That's a great start. The quarterback is going to be an improvement. I think Burrow is going to be just fine there. And the defense is still going to be a question mark for Cincinnati. The biggest knock that I see on mixing going into drafts now is his schedule. It's a tough schedule for him, especially in the early going. So there could be some rough games for him and for everybody on Cincinnati to begin the year. But talent-wise and what he's been able to give you over the last two seasons and specifically over the last half of last season

with this coaching staff, I think there's a ton to love about Nixon. Nixon was the number four running back in the last eight games of the year. He had the most carries in the NFL. He had 33 more carries than anyone else. Nick Chubb was number two. So that's crazy. And Derrick Henry is the only running back who had more rushing yards than Joe Nixon.

Jamie, who's your favorite in this group of five? It's Nixon also. But I think they're all awesome, especially if Henry can repeat what he did a year ago. The question just with him is, again, for me, it's health, but also can he maybe do a little bit more in the passing game? But I think Dave was spot on with Mixon. Heath was spot on with Eckler.

What we saw from Drake to close the season last year was unbelievable. Chubb, as we saw, was neck and neck with Henry to lead the NFL in rushing. Now he gets to Fanske, who could be even more inclined to use him running the ball. The problem with him is Kareem Hunt. I think all these guys have a chance to be, again, to use your phrase, league winners. They're just in good spots. They're coming off strong performances a year ago. And if they all stay healthy, then you're going to be thrilled with getting them either late round one or early round two.

All right. You said they're all awesome, but we know how fantasy works. Not all these guys are going to end up being awesome, unfortunately. So who concerns you in this group? Again, it's Drake, Eckler, Mixon, Henry, and Chubb.

Who are you guys avoiding? You got it. You got to invest around to pick. Is there anyone you're saying? No, there's no way I'm drafting this guy in the second round. Oh, I mean, I'm not taking Henry at all.

I just, I I'm worried about the touches from a year ago and just, you know, regression from this team as a whole. So I, I doubt I'll draft very much of Henry and Chubb is the one I have ranked right above him. They're both 11 and 12 for me in PPR. Chubb would be again, lack of receptions once Kareem Hunt was eligible to play. And if Hunt takes on a bigger role in the ground game,

then that's going to hurt him too. So those would be the two I would nitpick the most, but hopefully the flaws or the pros outweighs the cons. And I hate to say it with both of them because they're two of the best running backs in the NFL. Forget about all the other information that we know about them. Just when you watch them play, they're fun to watch. They're great at what they do. And in theory, they should both be around for several years. But I think jamie's points are accurate i've got henry ranked ahead of chubb and ppr but they're fourth and fifth for me among these running backs yeah like i wouldn't say any of these guys i'm avoiding in round two they're

all in my top 17 i believe so i i would take any of them in the second round especially the end of the second round my least favorite is mixon i don't really know that he's going to catch a lot more passes than Henry or Chubb. Maybe he's going to get an extra 10 or 12 points in that regard. And I just he's not been as good as them on the ground. You know, Chubb. Well, he wasn't the end of last

year, though. The end of last year, yeah. The thing with Mixon, though, is that we forget he was terrible the The first day games. It's like, everybody talks about the last day games, but the first day games, he averaged 3.2 yards per carry.

He was living on bell. The coaches were trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. It was also, you know, I mean, first, first day games of a new head coach. And,

you know, is AJ green coming back? Is he not? What does that matter? I mean, why are we making those excuses? He was bad. It was bad. You know, is A.J. Green coming back? Is he not coming back? What does that matter? I mean, why are we making those excuses? He was bad. He was bad.

You know, he was bad. They were fundamentally using him the wrong way. Well, I mean, we can't sit here and say, okay, we can, you know, Chubb was bad by comparison his last eight games when... No, only in touchdowns. He still averaged 4.8 yards per carry. He had the second most carries in the NFL.

Kareem Hunt had one carry inside the five-yard line. So Chubb still ownedaged 4.8 yards per carry. He had the second most carries in the NFL. Kareem Hunt had one carry inside the five-yard line. So Chubb still owned that role. Okay, but statistically, Chubb was worse when Kareem Hunt was on field. Not 3.2 yards per carry. I mean, Joe Mixon was an outright horrible bust the first eight games. But would you rather have a guy building toward the next season or fading away? I don't think it matters. No, I don't think that matters at all.

It's eight games. I think it matters significantly. Momentum counts. I don't expect Mixon and Chubb to be that different on a per carry basis. I think they're both really good. I'm just saying you can't just completely throw away the first eight games of the season. No, they came off their bye week. They found something that worked, and they rode it toward the end of the year. Okay.

How about this? Again, I brought this up last week or two weeks ago. Last week, it must have been. 15 carries for Nick Chubb inside the five-yard line for negative 14 yards. By far, the fewest yards gained because negative 14. I wouldn't worry about that at all. Well, the only reason I worry about it is because they do have Kareem Hunt.

So do they say maybe that's not a strength of Nick Chubb's? That's all I'm bringing up there. I don't know. They added two pretty significant offensive linemen there. I think they're going to help that ground game. And the coaching staff is completely different. So I think they're going to be able to scheme better down there. Okay. And if they're as conservative

as we say they are, I had to get that out there, that Chubbs should get plenty of opportunities inside the five again and hopefully turns them into more touchdowns than he did last year. I just thought it was an interesting stat. Really don't see that

kind of inefficiency. We got two wide receivers in a row. Chris Godwin and DeAndre Hopkins. Godwin is 13th in our consensus rankings. He was the number two PPR wide receiver last year. DeAndre Hopkins was number five. He had our consensus rankings. He was the number two PPR wide receiver last year. DeAndre Hopkins was number five. He had a down year.

He's usually 1,500 yards, 12 touchdowns. Last year, he was 1,165 yards and seven touchdowns in 15 games. Heath, who do you like better, Godwin or Hopkins? I like Godwin better. Obviously, both guys changing quarterbacks, but I think that the fit there with Godwin and Tom Brady is a pretty good one. He runs more of the types of routes that are closer to line of scrimmage. He's going to play outside more if they play more 12 personnel,

but he was actually better on a per-target basis last year outside than he was in the slot, so that doesn't worry me at all. I'm just a little bit worried about DeAndre Hopkins, who has always been a guy that kind of needs 9 to 10 targets per game to be an elite fantasy-wide receiver. I don't know that he's going to get 9 to 10 targets per game in that Arizona offense. Who likes Hopkins better than Goblin? Anybody?

I do. Okay. Yeah, you like like Hopkins you're pretty bullish here because the Cardinals are desperate for a guy like him you go back and watch their games last year they sputtered inside the red zone because they didn't have anybody who could dominate down there and when it came to stretching the field they didn't

necessarily have guys who could do that either and I know you don't think of DeAndre Hopkins in that way but he did it plenty for Houston he's just not among the elite receivers in the NFL when it comes to deep ball, but he certainly made his fair share of long catches from Deshaun Watson. And he's going to be able to do things in the red zone that Trent Shurfield and Larry Fitzgerald can sometimes do, but didn't do all the time last year. Christian Kirk, same thing.

He's going to be able to step up, and that's what I'm counting on when I draft DeAndre Hopkins. I think the target share is going to go down from what he had in Houston because he was catching a third of everything in Houston. He's not going to be quite that involved, but he's still going to be the target leader by a significant margin in Arizona. Call it 30 targets. He'll have more than 30 targets than anybody else on the team. I think he can get double-digit touchdowns again. This is an offense that toward the end of last year, really, well, maybe not toward the end of last year, but after the beginning of the season, that's probably the best way

to put it, they really started to get going. And I think they're going to continue to progress and ultimately be one of the best offenses in the NFL. And they're going to challenge those defenses in the NFC West, and Hopkins is going to be a big reason for it. Jamie, why do you say 30 targets more? That would put him at 135. All of 125, 130 targets. No, I'm saying 30 is a reasonable number.

So that would put him 135 targets because I think it was 105 was the target leader for them last year with Fitzgerald. They were right around 105, yeah. Fitzgerald and Kirk were both right around that. Right, but Kirk missed three games, So he would have probably had, you know, one 15. But if you just go on the numbers that they had, the only time in Hopkins career, he's ever had less than 150 targets. The only time he's been around that number one 35, it was his second year in the league. And this, this is his numbers, which I think is realistic. 76 catches, 1,210

yards and six touchdowns so his yards per target would go up significantly based on what we saw from a year ago but his touchdowns would be about the same and the catches would come down a lot so um in this offense is that something that is attractive to you if that's his numbers and i'm not saying you did but just in general that's what he does is that a high second round low first round pick well that that's the thing does. Is that a high second round, low first round pick? Well, that's the thing is I've got him projected for 140 targets. But at eight,

he's never been good with less than a, or never been great with less than 150 targets. At his career efficiency, which is right. Like for his career, right around eight yards per target. He was, that's right where he was last year.

He's a 5% touchdown rate guy, which is pretty normal. Well, that's 1150 yards. Jamie said 1200, 1200 right in that range and seven touchdowns and i think that's what i've got projected for is 1150 and seven unless he catches 100 passes that's just not a top five wide receiver and if he gets the same targets here that he's been getting with deshaun watson that would have put him last year at 166 targets and it would have been the second most targeted receiver in the NFL.

Right. And I don't think he's going to get that high, but I think the touch that you're talking about seven touchdowns for him, I think that's going to be way low. Well, so you think his touchdown rate's going to go up with Kyler? It's going to go up. He's going to be the top banana in the red zone for Arizona.

The touchdown leader last year was like five. Yeah. They need somebody who's better than five. Yeah. I know Dave thinks that Kyler Murray was a little unlucky in the red zone on them. The touchdown leader last year was like five. Yeah, they need somebody who's better than five. Yeah, I know Dave thinks that Kyler Murray was a little unlucky in the red zone last year so that Dave's counting on a lot of touchdowns for Hopkins. One more guy in this group of 10. It's Travis Kelsey, number 11 in our

consensus ranking. He's been the number one tight end in PPR for straight seasons. He's been number one in non PPR three of the last four. The other season he finished number two. I think the case for Kelsey is fairly easy to make. I just made it, right? Number one four years in a row in this format, and we have him as a top 12 player overall.

What's the case against Travis Kelsey, Dave? The case against Travis Kelsey. Let's just start with value on draft day. Taking him with a first-round pick when you can get Kittle in round two. It seems a little steep for Kelsey. I know that he's been incredibly consistent and he's 31, he 31 or 32 years old. He will turn 31 this season. Okay. So in the middle of the season, you can't discount him for that. That doesn't matter to me. Yeah. I think that's where you really start if you're going to go against Travis Kelsey

is that there are so many other tight ends that you can either get in round two or round three, four, or you can just wait until round eight and get one of the guys in the back half of our top 12 in our rankings, and you'll be fine at the position. It's deeper this year, so the rush to get a tight end to just solidify that spot, I don't think it's necessary to do. Honestly, I don't know what else there could be to say.

I think he's the short area target that Patrick Mahomes prefers in that offense. Maybe Edwards-Hilaire is so good that he takes some work away from Kelsey inside of 15 yards, but he's a really good player and really tough to double cover. He's tough to coverage period in that offense, given all the weapons that they have. Heath, do you have to leave or do you have time to give us a,

why Travis Kelsey's hot garbage take? There's no, we shouldn't waste time on that. All right. Well, Heath has to jump off and do HQ. Dave has to do the same in about five minutes. So he thanked, thank you. Thank you for your time today. Yep. Sorry. You don't get to jump off and do HQ. Dave has to do the same in about five minutes. So Heath, thank you for your time today.

Yep. Sorry you don't get to talk about Miles Sanders. I'll just say what you think about Miles Sanders. Consensus 10 is way too high. All right. Let's get to Miles Sanders. He is number 10. And in the last six regular season games after the Jordan Howard injury, that does not include week 17.

Sanders got hurt in that game. He was the number three running back in PPR. Number seven in non-PPR. He had 25 catches. He had 94 carries. He was awesome. Didn't really score that many touchdowns. Only four touchdowns in those six games. Not terrible, but I guess pretty good. But maybe he could have

even more. All right. So is consensus 10 too high for Miles Sanders? Do either of you feel that way jamie or dave i definitely don't i think it's too high just from the standpoint of there are just a few players that have probably a little bit of a higher floor um you know kelsey is certainly in the conversation i would take mixon over sanders um you know just i think there's a higher ceiling for him from what we saw a year ago uh some of the receivers that we've talked about i think are a little bit safer than than miles standards but he's in this conversation i

mean he's awesome you know and and again i think what he showed you at the end of last year hopefully carries over this year i just hope that they don't add somebody else still you know just to ruin him i think it would be good for his still, you know, just to ruin him. I think it would be good for his ADP because you still want to draft him in this range, even if they add, let's say, a Devontae Freeman. But, you know, it's just going to be a matter of do they continue to lean on him like we saw last year. Now, last year, his reception totals, I think, were boosted a little bit because the receivers are going to have healthy receivers, whether it's the rookie stepping up or jeffrey and and uh deshaun jackson back but you know this whole thing about doug

peterson and and using not wanting to use one guy i think is is one of the most overblown things that we've talked about over the last several years when he's had the opportunity to use a guy he has i think he's been searching for a guy and he found one last year and so i i think this is the opportunity to sort of dispel that a little bit now is he going to be 30 plus touches on a weekly basis no is it going to be 25 maybe that's a stretch but 20 plus i think it's certainly well within reach and you know the low 20s and um he's he's he's a number one running back he's he's in the whatever you want to you know put him in in the five guys that we talked about previously from Mixon through Henry,

he's probably closer to that group than he is to the top four or top five. But he's right there. And he's a borderline first-round pick. I prefer him in the second round, but he's right here in this ring. And by the way, every coach is like that, where they're going to use multiple running backs to mix and match until they find their guy. And then when they find their guy, they're going to ride that guy. It's pretty simple to me. So thank you, Jamie, for saying that. And by the way, Miles Sanders is the only

running back in Doug Peterson's history with the Philadelphia Eagles that's had over a thousand total yards in the season. And his pace last year, this is including his bad games earlier when Jordan Howard was doing his thing. His pace was over 1,500 total yards and eight touchdowns. That's right around the average of what Michael Thomas has given you each of his last two seasons. Obviously, with fewer catches. If you're trying to make that decision in PPR.

Sure, that's fine. That doesn't mean that maybe it's obviously a positional scarcity thing, but whatever. He wasn't that great, Sanders, at the beginning of the year. He didn't beat out... He was as a receiver. He was, yeah.

He didn't beat out Jordan Howard. He took advantage of some very easy matchups down the stretch. I don't know. We have to make the case against. I think everybody knows how I feel about Miles Sanders. I think what happened

to Miles Sanders last year could happen to every single rookie this year even our beloved Clyde where they get off to a rough start because they're not used to playing in the NFL and they've got to figure things out and they've become a better player for it by the second half of the year

okay give me a quick answer on this Jamie said he has Mixon ahead of Sanders but the consensus rankings have Sanders ahead of that group of five running backs which was Chubb, Mixon, Henry, Eckler,

Drake. Is there any one thing that separates Miles Sanders from that group puts him ahead of, of them situation situation. Okay. Not to mention talent. Talent's pretty damn good too. All right.

Number nine is Tyreek Hill. And he didn't have a great year last year, but he was hurt in and out of the lineup. Played only 12 snaps in week one. So you see he played 12 games. He really only played 11 games. We love Tyreek Hill. Obviously, he's great. Jamie, what's the case against Tyreek Hill? We saw last year he got hurt. And so hopefully that doesn't happen again.

Look, Mikko Hartman has a little bit of a bigger role. Sammy Watkins still there. They throw more to their running backs because Edward Allaire is a special talent, maybe in comparison to Damian Williams. When we get to this point, it's just such small things that are the problems with these guys. So I don't see much downside if you play 16 games. We saw it two years such small things that are the problems with these guys.

I don't see much downside if he plays 16 games. We saw it two years ago how good he could be with Mahomes. He could challenge to be the number one receiver in non-PPR. He could be right there in PPR. He just doesn't catch a lot of passes. That's probably the worst thing about him. Sure, he doesn't have that safe volume, but he still finished last year 11th in PPR fantasy points per game and 18th in consistency. I would argue that those numbers are low for him.

So I think Tyreek, there's really, the argument against him is that, oh, he gets hurt. That's it. And Mahomes threw 26 touchdowns in 14 games last year. The Chiefs threw something like, yeah, like 30 to 32 touchdowns. I think Mahomes is a 40 touchdown guy. That's a big number, but he's a legend already. So he threw 50 touchdowns in 2018. That's a high number, but 40 is certainly

realistic. Touchdowns are going to go up for the Chiefs. Julio Jones, he was number three in PPR last year. He had another outstanding season. But man, Jamie mentioned it earlier. Last three games of the season, he had a 35.6% target share, Julio Jones. This was without Calvin Ridley. Calvin Ridley got hurt and he went nuts. He had 378 yards and two touchdowns. Jones only had six touchdowns all year. Before that, I mean, 12 games with Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones had a 20.6% target share. So that's got to be a little concerning. Is anybody concerned about Julio Jones, 31 years old this year, eighth in our consensus rankings? A little, but I'm still taking him as a surefire number one fantasy receiver. And I think if he hadn't have finished last year the way that he did, I'd be a little more nervous to draft Julio Jones.

But he had 78 PPR points in his last three games. That's more than 25 per game. Proves that he can still play at a high level. And I think Atlanta is still going to throw the ball a ton. I think he's still going to be the number one guy there. Let me ask you guys this. How many receivers do you think have a chance to be over 100 catches? Oh, gosh.

Without really thinking about it, seven. I'd say more have a chance to. I think we'll end up with like seven or eight. But I would say like Adam Phelan has a chance. Last year, there were four guys who did it. Jones and Allen Robinson

were just outside of it. Jones was 99 catches. Robinson was 98. I think the year before, there were four guys who did it. Jones and Allen Robinson were just outside of it. Jones was 99 catches. Robinson was 98. I think the year before there were eight guys that went over a hundred catches in 2018. He's one of those guys that you just pencil in for a hundred catches. And you know, when you,

when you look PPR, it's just, okay. Once you get past whoever your top two guys, maybe for me, it's, it's Thomas and Devanteante i just think of julio jones like if he stays healthy he's 100 to 110 catches he's you know 1300 to 1400 yards and

unfortunately he's kind of capped at like eight to nine touchdowns if that is just the the the the what his track record has been clearly health is a problem. Maybe Ridley takes the next step, but Ridley missed time last year and Hurst has had a hard time staying healthy. They're going to throw the ball so much that he's just, he just feels safe. And so, you know, hopefully this isn't the year where the breakdowns or the, or the, the cliff happens for receivers in the early thirties. We've seen that before. I just think he's just so good, so talented. I wish he would get 10 plus touchdowns a little bit more often,

but it's hard to bet against Julio Jones. All right, Dave, thank you for your time today, sir. You got it, gentlemen. This was fun. We have seven more players. We have Devante Adams checking in at number 7. 83 catches in 12 games, 997 yards. His 16 game pace was better

than I realized. I think, um, there's 111 catches, 1,329 yards, only seven touchdowns, but 169 targets. Um, they didn't really do anything, Jamie, to, uh, to make Devante Adams look any worse going into 2020. You, You know, look, seven's really high, but I know that for you, it's like an enthusiastic seven for Devontae Adams, right? I mean, you're just all in. I just think he's

proven himself over the last two years. And, you know, again, you can say, okay, and this is probably a similar situation, Adam. It wasn't the same length of time time but he was bad in the early part of the season this is kind of what i go back to with with joe mixon feeling out a new coach feeling out a new system dealing with you know changes uh you know matt lafleur's system wasn't really working for devonte adams and then when adams had that monster first half

against philadelphia imagine if he had played those next three games um or was it four games next next four games uh when he hurt his toe because what he did when he came back from the toe injury when he was consistently getting double digits and targets he never double digit target game in his first three outings before that philadelphia game and that all came in the first half and so i think it was a matter of okay rogers knowing valdez gantling i liked him a lot last year didn't pan out uh jeron mollison no longer part of the team, didn't pan out. Alan Lazard, maybe. We'll see how he does.

But I don't think he's got a superstar level to him. Maybe Jay Sternberger does. But it's a lead singer and a bunch of backup dancers right now for Devontae Adams. And if the targets can continue to be there, he was better than Michael Thomas on a per game basis the year before. I would not be surprised if he's there now. And again, factoring that slow start, he was still on a per game, on an average fantasy point per game basis. He was one, two, three, four, five, the sixth best receiver in PPR last year behind Evans, Hopkins, Julio, Godwin, and Thomas in ascending order. So I think he's a better chance to score 10-plus touchdowns

maybe than any other receiver if he had to put money on it. I think he's got a chance to be around 100 catches. I think he's got a chance to be 1,500 yards. So we've had this conversation before. I know you brought it up briefly on the air. I would not be surprised if he's better than Thomas. I've toyed with the idea of putting him ahead of Thomas. It's just so hard to bet against Michael

Thomas and what he does in PPR. But in non-PPR, I think the touchdowns can matter for Devontae Adams in his offense, and I think he might be better. Is he your number one wide receiver in non-PPR? No, I haven't made that switch yet, but it's something every time I look at my rank, he's like, oh, maybe this is the day.

Okay. Yeah, here's the case against Devontae Adams. Matt LaFleur is potentially a very run-heavy coach. You know, we don't exactly know. He's been a coordinator or a coach three seasons. And, you know, it was one with the Rams. Or he was, I think, a quarterback coach. Right.

McVay calls the plays. But they were run-heavy. And they drafted A.J. Dillon. They were obviously run heavy in tennessee with derrick henry and they drafted aj dylan so maybe they're going to try to be the 49ers or something like that but you've brought it up they don't have the defense for that we don't think anyway at least the run defense six spots left and we know who they are we just don't know the order it It's the big five running backs plus Michael Thomas. Well, we go like this in our consensus PPR rankings. Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott. This is 6-5-4.

We're counting down. Or are we counting up? No, we're counting down. 6-5-4. Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott. Michael Thomas is three. Saquon Barkley is two. And Christian McCaffrey is one.

Christian McCaffrey is a no-brainer. How difficult is it for you to figure out two through six? It's difficult with, at least it was. I think Dalvin Cook's holdout made it a little bit easier, but I had already moved Kamara ahead of Ezekiel Elliott. So initially it was a little tough between Cook and, and Kamara. I think that the tough part is where do you put Michael Thomas? Because I think we're going to find that you're going to see a little bit

more of a lean. And I think this is the right way toward running backs in the first two rounds. And then kind of take your chances with those round three, around four receivers. So if you are pick four, five, six,

you know, do you pull the trigger on Thomas? And that's kind of, I think for me, at least how low do I put a guy who was so impressive last year, but could maybe lose a little bit with Kamara being better, at least being healthy and not having to play through an ankle injury, and the addition of Emmanuel Sanders, which gives them a better number two receiver than they had last year.

Okay, so following up on Michael Thomas, he was the number eight, well, in PPR, he was number six wide receiver two years in a row. So what changed? Well, he got a lot more targets. He had 149 targets in 2017, 147, 2018. He had 185 targets in 2019. Nobody had ever gotten to 150 targets with Drew Brees in New Orleans. Thomas had been right there two years in a row, but 185 was way more than we had seen from anybody with Drew Brees in New Orleans. He had the most targets for any wide receiver since 2015.

Sometimes you see these 180 target seasons. They're not always followed up by the same thing. And Drew Brees threw more per game. Well, I'm not even factoring Bridgewater. Just Brees, his pass attempts. He threw more per game than he had in either of the previous two seasons. So, yeah, I mean, maybe he's more of a 150 target guy. If Michael Thomas is

150 targets, which he had been both in 2017 and 2018, right around there. Told you, I guarantee you, 150 targets. Where are you taking them? Still in the mid-first round. But probably after all these backs. Okay. Why Camara? Right now, I'm looking at our projections.

We have him at 162 targets, which would put him, or at least the projections have him, 132 catches, 1572 yards, and nine touchdowns. I think that's realistic. Why put Kamara over Zeke? By the way, is Barkley two for you? It's McCaffrey, Barkley, Kamara, Zeke, Cook. I mean, Zeke, I'm having, why not Zeke number two?

300 carries last year. He's probably going to have, he and Derrick Henry have got to be the odds-on favorites to lead the NFL in carries, right? Potentially. I just think the norm for Zeke in terms of what his receiving totals have been is kind of where I look at as opposed to what he did two years ago.

Yeah. So I don't, I don't think he's going to be, I think 40 to 50 catches is where he's going to live. He had 54 last year. Camara has had 81 catches each of his first three seasons, which is a pretty amazing stat, kind of hilarious. Dalvin Cook ends his holdout today.

Where would you rank him? Still the same. Five. Five. Okay. Anything you want to add? What is it about Barkley that puts him ahead of the others? Again, I go back to the last three games of the season,

you know what he was able to accomplish. I think he's just a superior talent. Um, I'm, I'm just so impressed by him as a player. I, I do think there are some concerns about what his role will be in the passing game with everybody healthy and Daniel Jones being a mobile

quarterback. So that could hurt him a little bit in the same regard as, as he, uh, where I don't know if he's going to be what we saw from him as a rookie. Uh, is he going to be more of a 40 to 50 catch guy? I think I'd probably take the over on that, but, uh, maybe not by much, but I just think that the, the giants offense has a chance to be special. Their defense is going to be very, very bad, but, uh, that offense could

be special. You know, the offensive line should be better with Thomas. I do think Jones in year two will be better. The receiving core, while it may not have a clear-cut number one guy, when you throw in Evan Ingram, that's a pretty good group. And so I think there are going to be chances for them to score. I think there are going to be a lot of high-scoring games where they probably end up losing more so than winning. But a chance for him to be close to 2,000 total yards is right there again. You have a $200 auction budget.

We're playing in a PPR league. How much should Christian McCaffrey go for, and how much should Saquon Barkley go for? Both those guys are going to go near 70. I think you're talking probably 68 to 72 for McCaffrey, and right around 65 for Barkley, just depending on how much you want to spend for one of those elite level players.

Well, how much better do you think McCaffrey is than Barkley? I mean, as we saw last year, you don't get 1,000 yards from a running back very often. So he's better. It's just this team could be really bad as well. And you have new coach new coordinator new quarterbacks which i don't think is a bad thing um but mcafree has shown the ability to run through tackles run through the run through one up the middle uh you know

and i think that's been the knock on him you know i'm writing this story for our second edition of the magazine on mcafree and uh you know we spoke to jer to Jerome Bettis, McCaffrey himself, Emmett Smith. You know, I asked a lot of running backs, you know, retired greats and current ones. And they all just glow about what McCaffrey does as a player. And I think the one thing that, you know, you go back to is he us on on CBS Sports HQ that he's an offensive weapon and um that's kind of what he is you know he's just not a traditional running back you know his his argument was how many how many how many receivers get a thousand yards you know and in front of you at that position I just think you build the offense around him uh he's still

young enough and talented enough that he's one of those players that uh at a position that you know the the stars may be you know deteriorating a little bit from where they were but he's one of those players at a position that the stars may be deteriorating a little bit from where they were, but he's still one of the best of the best. He sure is. He will be the consensus number one. If you don't take him number one, you are gutsy. Let's just say that.

Well, in other formats, 2QB, Superflex, you make a case for the quarterback. No, no, no, certainly. Yeah. And, you know, look, even in non-PPR, it's going to be closer, but 100 catches. Saquon Barkley, you know, since the first... I broke down his catches since the first eight games of his career.

First eight games of his career, he was catching. He was, like, on 100-something yards, something catch. He was on pace to basically break Matt Forte's record and Christian McCaffrey's record, but then they had a bye in week nine. And then since then, it's been a year and a half where Barkley's been like a 62 catch running back per 16 games. So that's kind of what I'm expecting.

And McCaffrey's going to have 40 more catches than him. So it's just that's so hard to ignore and is going to put a difference in their auction values for sure. Jamie, thank you. Good stuff, man difference in their auction values for sure. Jamie, thank you. Good stuff. Good question for you. Yeah.

So I did a poll, um, for our Twitch draft for Tuesday night, uh, which format we should do regular PPR draft, uh, regular half PPR draft, super flex or two QB.

I voted. I think I voted for half PPR. I believe PPR. I'm surprised by that. PPR is going to win? PPR won slightly. Regular PPR draft won slightly. Out of 1,400 votes, 36.4% for PPR,

34.7% for half PPR, 20.3% for Superflex, and 8.7% for 2 QB. Now we combine two of those and do a super flex PPR draft. We could do that. That's fine. Or we can do a P or super flex,

non PPR draft or half PPR draft super flex, non PPR. No half PPR. What do you want to do? I'd like to do a, I think we should, I. No, half PPR. What do you want to do? I'd like to do a... I think we should honor the poll. Do PPR. Honor the poll, just do a regular PPR, Josh?

Yeah, I guess so. Boring? Yeah, a little boring. We do so many of those. No, Superflex, man. Superflex PPR. Superflex PPR? Yeah. Alright, we'll see. Alright, that's Tuesday night. Tuesday morning, you'll see. All right. That's Tuesday night, Tuesday morning. You'll have your sleepers episode.

So we look forward to that. I want to thank Dave and Heath for jumping on as well. Uh, remember to check us out. YouTube.com slash fantasy football today. Twitch.com slash FF today. The links are in the episode description. I'm Adam Azar for Jamie Eisenberg.

Adios.