Fantasy Football Today - The Crazy Eight! Eight Toughest Players to Rank with Liz Loza (07/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 20, 2021

Nominate us on PodcastAwards.com! https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup Yahoo's Liz Loza joins us with her list of "toughest players to rank!" We get four from Liz and four from Dave. Of course, L...iz tells us about her awesome Scott Fish Bowl team before we discuss why Deshaun Watson and Jalen Hurts (6:15) are so difficult to rank right now. Should you take a chance on Watson? Do the Eagles believe in Hurts? ... The latest on Saquon Barkley (20:48) and then we get into more players who are tough to rank. Liz nominates Joe Mixon (26:55), Kenny Golladay (35:15) and Noah Fant (42:55). We debate Mixon vs. Antonio Gibson, talk about Golladay's ceiling vs. floor and marvel at Fant's talent ... Dave has trouble ranking the Steelers WRs (49:30) and he lays out the cases for each of them. And we get some clarity on Trey Sermon (56:40) who is actually the first RB off the board according to ADP ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:21 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Fantasy Football Today. Big show today. We're talking about the crazy eight. The eight toughest players to rank. Four from Dave, four from a very special guest. We'll talk about players like Kenny Galladay. Can he be awesome on a new team?
Starting point is 00:01:45 Jalen Hurts, a lot of upside, maybe a lot of downside as well if you just looked at his passing numbers from last year. So we will get to all of that. Our special guest today, you already see her if you're watching on YouTube. But if you don't know, you know from the title of the episode. But anyway, I'll introduce her. Coming to us straight out of the Jennifer Lopez division of the Scott Fish Bowl, Lizzie on the block. Liz Loza.
Starting point is 00:02:06 And yes, thank you for laughing, because it took me at least a minute to come up with a nickname in relation to Jennifer. I had to Google Jennifer Lopez songs just to come up with that. Well, please just don't do me like A-Rod did, okay? I am happy to be here. Thank you for having me.
Starting point is 00:02:24 And I can't believe you just didn't figure this one out let's get loud yeah alright we're gonna get loud we have a whole hour to get loud with Lizzy on the block oh my god you're just gonna keep repeating it I was gonna do a segment
Starting point is 00:02:38 I was gonna say if they had your love and ask you if you like these players but I think that was overkill you can follow Liz on twitter at Liz Loza L-O-Z-A if they had your love and ask you if you like these players. But I think that was overkill. You can follow Liz on Twitter at Liz Loza, L-O-Z-A underscore F-F. And she is a fantasy football analyst for Yahoo. She's going to be covering the Olympics as well. We're going to ask her about that.
Starting point is 00:02:57 She loves her Scott Fishbowl team. Schrager, throw it up on the screen. Let's do it. Let's get that Scott Fishbowl lineup up there. I know you love it. What was your toughest decision? Since we're going to be talking about tough players to rank, let's stay on the theme there. What was your toughest decision in your Scott Fishbowl draft? I mean, I'm going to be honest. I really am proud of this Scott Fishbowl squad. This is a league that I find crazy making
Starting point is 00:03:19 since we're doing a show about crazy making players tough to rank players every year because there's, I mean, Scott does such an incredible job of changing the scoring system every year that there's no way to gather enough data to actually gain a strategic advantage year over year but I have learned to stop undervaluing quarterbacks so I went after my guy it was Kyler Murray at the top I leaned into tight end premium George Kittle does have his durability issues. You know, I'm going to deal with it. But I also think when we look at San Francisco, like he's probably the most quarterback proof anticipating a change at least midseason between Garoppolo to Trey Lance of these pass catching option. So and then I took Matthew Stafford at number three, I think I got a little bit wonky around pick 17. I really wanted Ramond Ray Stevenson, I thought he was gonna fall to me, I had that all queued up. And instead it didn't, I wanted to add some insurance and depth to running back. And so I took cadre Allison, I don't love it. But you know, Mike Davis isn't like ultra proven. So I'll take it. But I think that was
Starting point is 00:04:25 probably the pick that I was the least confident in or proud of. 17 picks. Dave, you got to really love your team when your 17th round pick is the one that, that really gives you fits. And by the way, George Kittle, cause I also had the fourth pick. I took Dalvin cook. You took Kyler Murray. Obviously for those of you who don't know, completely different leagues. We're not competing against each other, but obviously, or else we wouldn't both have the fourth pick. To get George Kittle at 209, tremendous value. Great stuff.
Starting point is 00:04:54 But Dave, that's a heck of a team she's got there, and I see why round 17 was the first time she really struggled with a pick. She did what I did, which is you waited on receiver and i i would imagine that's what the majority of folks did in uh in fishbowl and for anybody that looks at liz squad and says oh she's got robert woods and robbie anderson and brandon cooks and curtis samuel and
Starting point is 00:05:18 you know a couple of other gabriel davis at wide receiver her wide receivers are just too weak they're not good enough. I disagree. We've talked about Woods forever on this podcast. We're all expecting him to have a good year. At least in the case of Anderson and Cooks, there should be a lot of targets. Samuel, we talked about a little bit on Monday's show, and I got a feeling we're going to talk about him again on this show.
Starting point is 00:05:40 But here's the bottom line. That's one of the easiest positions to go and refill, even in a league as deep as Scott Fishbowl's. And if you wait to fill that spot, that means you're loaded at all the other positions. And Liz is exactly that. Really, really love the quarterback that she's got. She's got Kyler.
Starting point is 00:05:57 She's got Matthew Stafford. She's got the Washington handcuffs. She's got Fitzpatrick and Taylor Haneke. Not a good nickname for Washington's football team, by the way. The Washington handcuffs. No, don't dorick and Taylor Haneke. Not a good nickname for Washington's football team, by the way, the Washington handcuffs. No, don't do that. But she handcuffed the quarterback and it'll be all good. And it's a team that's prepared and should be strong in the fishbowl scoring system. Well, thank you. I appreciate that. I feel like the best and worst thing about the Scott Fishbowl is that ADP does not matter. I know that there are ADP trackers.
Starting point is 00:06:25 Kudos to the people who figure out that data and can track it. But this is the ultimate get your guy league. So I have flag guys. I have value guys. And I tried to mix them up. That's why when you took Robert Woods, I took Trey Lance. He was my sixth round pick. Got it.
Starting point is 00:06:42 Very different. Wanted to get my guys. Yep. That makes sense. And officially, what is your favorite Jennifer Lopez song? I mean, do you expect me to winnow them down immediately like this? Just on the spot? There's a buffet, a catalog of options to choose from.
Starting point is 00:06:59 Yeah. Right. I like that song she does with Ja Rule a lot. I like that one. I don't know that one. Dave, how about you? I like that song she does with Ja Rule a lot. I like that one. I don't know that one. Dave, how about you? I like Get Right. Get Right?
Starting point is 00:07:09 Oh, okay. That's a song? It is. Okay. All right, great. I guess I think Jenny from the Block for me. Yeah. All right.
Starting point is 00:07:19 Toughest player to rank. So Dave wouldn't commit to giving me one. He gave me a list of four. Just pick one, Dave, that you want to highlight as a very tough player to rank. So Dave wouldn't commit to giving me one. He gave me a list of four. Just pick one, Dave, that you want to highlight as a very tough player to rank. Can we get into the discussion now or is this just going to be like a preview for the future discussion?
Starting point is 00:07:34 It's a preview. I want to get into the one that I was going to say and we'll get into it later, the Steelers receivers. I still have a hard time with them but we'll save that for a little bit later. Let's go with one that we just get out of the way, and it's pretty easy.
Starting point is 00:07:49 It's Deshaun Watson. My knee-jerk reaction is to not even have him ranked because I'm not sure if he's even going to play this year. But there are rumors, it seems like now, every few days coming out, about a team that would be interested if things work out. The fact that we haven't heard anything lately on the front, maybe, maybe there's some sort of settlement that he's working on just so we can play football this year. If you're obviously by
Starting point is 00:08:15 August, I would expect to know more about his situation, but let's just say you're drafting now and in late July, I think you've got to look at him as somebody that you take a shot on in the double-digit rounds on the hope that he ends up playing this year. Yeah, his ADP is QB like 20 something. He's basically not being drafted. QB
Starting point is 00:08:38 where is it? 20... I don't know. Sorry, 28. QB 28. That's ridiculous. I couldn't believe it. Okay, fine. If it's not... Sorry, 28. QB 28. That's ridiculous. I couldn't believe it. Okay, fine. Maybe it's not ridiculous because there's, like I said,
Starting point is 00:08:50 a chance that he doesn't end up playing this year. But I think the risk-reward with taking him with a late pick is pretty obvious at this point where if you're getting him in round 11, oh, boo-hoo-hoo, you're missing out on Paris Campbell or a DST maybe,
Starting point is 00:09:06 if you're inclined to take a DST that early. Liz, it's a very— When you could have a possible top five fantasy quarterback. Yeah, Liz, it's a very tough call, I think, in a two-quarterback league when you don't really have that luxury of wasting roster spots. So when would you take Watson there? In a two-quarter league? So I don't have him ranked, actually.
Starting point is 00:09:24 I just refreshed my quarterback rankings well I think it was Thursday or Friday so pretty recently and I took him out of my rankings Dave's right that there is news and it's a constantly evolving situation but I don't think I'm I understand what Dave is saying about the potential value and I think in a single quarterback league that might be better but in 2QB I would rather, uh, add one of the backups to one of these offenses that I assume is going to be good, whether it's Trey, like reaching for somebody like Trey Lance, which is a different conversation or grabbing Taylor Heineke and attaching, um, and, and adding some insurance to the quarterback position in Washington, because I expect the Washington
Starting point is 00:10:02 football team, frankly, to win the division, beating the odds that they currently have behind the Dallas Cowboys. So I think I would lean more in that direction than bother with the carnival surrounding Watson. I'm going to look up what the ADP was for him in the fishbowl. Right. That's a good one. I guarantee it wasn't the 28th quarterback off the board. So let me just ask you guys this. Let's say he gets traded to the Eagles. That was Adam Schefter's report that it was the most likely destination, right? But not that it was going to happen or anything.
Starting point is 00:10:33 Let's just say he gets traded to the Eagles. Where would Deshaun Watson rank for you? If he got traded to the Eagles and he was cleared to start this year, he wouldn't be any lower than sixth. Well, where do you have Hurts? Because if we're talking about hard-to-rank players, Jalen Hurts is leading my list. And I think the reason you're prioritizing Watson
Starting point is 00:11:00 is for a lot of the reasons that Hurts is hard to rank. Hold up. Adam, when you said that Deshaun Watson was QB 28, were you looking at NFC? Yeah. He's QB 28 in fishbowl too. No way. He really ended up being that far down. So he's behind Fitzpatrick, Daniel Jones, Zach
Starting point is 00:11:17 Wilson, Sam Darnold. He went anywhere from 108th overall to 163rd overall. Somebody took him 23rd overall in one league. No he fell as far as 176 but his average draft position ended up being 109 as qb 28 off the board so that tells me that i'm probably in the minority by having him ranked period and that there were there are more than enough people in fantasy that just want to not bother taking the risk on him even if it's round the end of round nine basically in a super flex league okay so let's get so let's get into jalen hurts then
Starting point is 00:11:58 liz as he's qb10 right now just after tom brady and aaron rogers just before matthew stafford and ryan tannahill so uh in a very good group of quarterbacks there jalen hertz was on pace for more than a thousand rushing yards last year when he started and that's obviously i mean that's a huge appeal but why is he so tough for you to rank well it's multi-pronged so you mentioned the rushing upside and that's why i'm keeping him inside my top 12 i think i'm probably a little lower than the consensus but still around that qb 10 to 12 range i mean at his ceiling he's a top five option right that's lamar jackson numbers like that there's that's where he is but at his floor which dave like i think mildly alluded to he gets benched mid-season and there's not a lot of pro tape available on him.
Starting point is 00:12:46 So we're not quite sure what his capacity as a passer is going to be. But we do know he managed a 59.2% true completion percentage last year. My question is about the play caller here in Nick Sirianni. I mean, yes, he's been in the league forever since let's, let's give him 2010 with the chiefs. And then, but is the only quarterbacks that he has been with have been Matt Castle and Phillip rivers. And neither of those quarterbacks scream rushing upside to me. And Sirianni himself has reported to the media and said that he's like, unsure if he wants to change things or how much he's going to cater his scheme to Hertz's skillset, which is very obvious. Now, could he be coach
Starting point is 00:13:31 speaking? Could it be trying to, you know, wave us off the scent? Sure, probably. But is this a guy who's able to do that given his previous history? I mean, I don't know if this guy doesn't go, if Cyrani doesn't go RPO heavy, I don't know how successful Jalen Hurts is going to be. And when you look at that defense and how green it is and how much of it turned over last season, Hurts is going to have to throw the dang ball. And if he doesn't, who's he going to throw it to? Yes, a reunion with Devonta Smith sounds great, but this is still like a historically slim receiver who's done historical things
Starting point is 00:14:06 otherwise. But there are plenty of question marks there. I'm not sure that the pass catchers here, he's not, you know, it's not new Hopkins or Michael Thomas, that's going to be lifting him and drawing him. It's a really young squad. And so the variance between what he could do and what he might do is very large, which makes him difficult for me to place. And officially, the other thing about it is that officially, where do you guys have him? Where do you guys both have him ranked?
Starting point is 00:14:32 I'm sorry, Liz. I think I have him 11. Okay. Dave. And I've got him higher than that. I've got hurts a little bit higher than that. I'm willing to put him a top 10 for sure.
Starting point is 00:14:43 I haven't nine as we speak today and there have been times where i've thought about putting him ahead of aaron rogers which really sounds ridiculous on the surface you know guy who's going to the hall of fame was just the league mvp last year and has been a fantasy staple for so long but it's the rushing upside that really does it for me on hertz uh the fact that fact that he averaged over 24 fantasy points per game and six points per passing touchdown leagues, and he completed 52% of his passes. I think the completion rate goes up.
Starting point is 00:15:15 I think that the offense will be – I think Sirianni will tailor the offense to Hurts because if he doesn't, he's going to look really dumb and it's going to be a bad first year year and he's just setting himself up to fail. I mean, well, the road does not seem to look, he does not seem to care about how he looks given all of his press conferences. That's true. His press conferences, it's almost like a sitcom, right, Liz?
Starting point is 00:15:38 You can't believe that this guy is a head coach in the National Football League because he's so, I don't know if all over the places is the right way to put it, but it's different. It's definitely refreshing, but he knows his football. And I, I do believe that he will help the passing game at bare minimum. I think the offensive line being healthy is also going to be a big plus for
Starting point is 00:16:02 Jalen hurts. He did not have a very healthy offensive line late last season. He'll have a little bit better protection. I think that'll help him throw a little bit better. And what I remember watching him when he played in college was very hot and cold. Sometimes he'd sit in the pocket and he'd throw a dime. Sometimes there'd be no one near him and he'd run out of the pocket to gain like five yards. So he definitely has some room to improve but it's that rushing that that's such a key for fantasy
Starting point is 00:16:31 if you're in a league where it's a point for every 10 yards he's going to help you there and i'm trying to get that's why he's in he's a qb1 right like i actually have him qb10 so we're not that far apart but like am i drafting him ahead of Tom Brady? A lot of that depends on roster construction and, you know, what falls to me, but he is not the floor option. And are you wanting to have a quarterback? Also, if the Eagles, if there are rumors that Shefty is reporting that the Eagles are even interested in Watson, that tells me that the buy-in on Hertz isn't as solid as maybe we thought.
Starting point is 00:17:04 Unless it's something like they want Watson, but they know that he's not going to be available to play for them for a portion of this year, maybe all of this year, and they're willing to wait and then they'll have Hurts. And if Hurts does well, then they've got a trade ship. They can move Hurts in a trade. And if not, then Hurts becomes the backup and Deshaun becomes the starter. It could work out that way too. But I think once they traded Wentz and then not drafted a quarterback, I think that kind of showed their main intention that they're going to go into this year with Hertz as their quarterback.
Starting point is 00:17:32 Yeah. And I think whenever you have a quarterback like this, to me, it's just a much easier... Everything is a much easier decision in a 1QB league because you take them and there are backup plans. I reference this a lot. Yeah, easy backup plans. Right. The one league that we've done so far, I know you're probably in there are backup plans. I reference this a lot. Yeah, easy backup plans, right. The one league that we've done so far,
Starting point is 00:17:48 I know you're probably in more than one league. I'm only in one that we're actually playing out. So I took Hurts, and then I drafted Aaron Rodgers. Like three rounds later, you have to know who you're drafting with. Aaron Rodgers currently has an ADP two picks higher than Jalen Hurts, but if you are not comfortable with Hurts, that's an eighth- round pick for you. Take Tannehill in the next round.
Starting point is 00:18:08 You know, if you take quarterbacks in rounds eight and nine, I think Heath disagreed with that. But I'd be okay with that personally if my first seven picks were on non-quarterbacks. If I took Hurts for the upside and then I said, all right, I'll take Tannehill or I'll take Stafford or Burrow. I'd rather Burrow. I'm fine with that in rounds eight and nine,
Starting point is 00:18:26 eight and ten, something like that. Liz, for you, is it Brady or Hertz? I have them back-to-back 9 and 10. Hertz 10. Dave, you have Hertz ahead of Brady, right? I do. They're back-to-back for me. Hertz 9, Brady 10.
Starting point is 00:18:41 We are going to be live Tuesday night. That's tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern on youtube.com slash fantasy football today. We're doing a mock draft and we're also giving away a spot in our next mock draft. So again, join us on our YouTube channel 7 p.m. as we mock with Steph Smalls, Tara Roberts and Samantha Praviti. And we'll be giving away a spot in our next mock mock draft so you can draft against our experts hit the subscribe button on youtube.com slash fantasy football today and we will see you tonight 7 p.m eastern so covering the olympics liz cool i i am yes thank you not from tokyo i'm doing it
Starting point is 00:19:19 remotely which means i'm going to be reliving some college days via my sleeping schedule because I'm working Pacific time. This is 6 p.m. to 2 a.m. Some shifts and then some shifts 2 a.m. to 10 a.m. So we'll see what I'm sure there'll be some late night social media posting that I may end up regretting. What's the time difference between here, between L.A. and Tokyo? I don't know. OK okay but so you're gonna be so are you gonna be covering live events or the events that air in prime time in america but have already happened in japan that we're not supposed to know the results of i will be covering the
Starting point is 00:19:57 olympics in real time okay okay that's great do you have a specialty sport or just just whatever um well i do in the winter olympics have a specialty sport or just whatever? Well, I do in the Winter Olympics have a specialty sport. But this particular Olympics, my focus are women's gymnastics and volleyball. I was on the volleyball team. I was like the worst setter for someone who is 5'2", which is why I didn't make varsity. Or the Olympics, I might add, Liz. You didn't make varsity or the Olympics. I might add Liz, you didn't make that team either. Um, that's cool. I actually did play by play in college and volleyball was by far the hardest the heart to do play by play. Impossible. It's just like so fast. Uh, but fun. Yeah, it was, it was a challenge. Um, and so how are we, how are we going to do USA? We're going to win the,
Starting point is 00:20:42 win the medal count. I mean, if you are tracking the alerts, I don't know how many people we're going to have going, actually. Because whether anyone wants to tell me, everybody may be tired of talking about COVID. And I think this is going to factor into fantasy and sports betting as well. COVID-19 remains a factor. And we are seeing numerous players not, Cocouff that's a big name not traveling to Tokyo because she tested positive so there's another woman who is just a on the three and three the three three on three basketball squad that's new to the Olympics this year not traveling Katie I want to say Somerville or something like that she's not traveling and can't compete so this is
Starting point is 00:21:23 very covering the lead up to the Olympics. And the, I believe the opening ceremonies are on Friday reminds me a lot of what we all did last summer heading into the NFL season. Yeah. And I know a gymnast too, also got COVID. So that's really,
Starting point is 00:21:37 I just feel so bad for these people that train so long, they get on the team and then they can't go. And that just stinks. So good luck to all of the Olympians. I'll be watching. I love it. So good luck to all of the Olympians. I'll be watching. I love it. Good luck to you covering the Olympics,
Starting point is 00:21:48 Liz, and let's get back to fantasy football here. Saquon Barkley, not a lot of news today, but Saquon Barkley just didn't really give a timetable. He's kind of playing coy. We don't have to talk about his, his knee or anything, but do you feel comfortable with him as a first round pick Liz?
Starting point is 00:22:03 And I guess we will end up talking about his name. And where do you have him ranked, Saquon Barkley? So I have him just outside of my, I believe, top five. I think I have him RB6, a little bit lower on him. But here's why. I, every year, starting last season, actually, started doing this rest versus rust series with the help of a, he is my RB six with the help of an orthopedic surgeon and the team doctor at the university of Southern California. And I wanted to dig in more
Starting point is 00:22:33 to like these injury things and also how like, uh, the COVID issue of not practicing and being on and off could like affect them. And in very deeply, I mean, I wrote 1500 words on Saquon Barkley. So it is a deep dive. I'm more nervous than people. I think everyone's like, Oh, we've seen elite athletes like Adrian Peterson is the test is the test case that everyone wants to cite. And obviously these videos that he's posting with his quads are just incredible. And so it's a foregone conclusion that he is totally back, except his schedule is rough to open the season. He is facing Denver, Washington, and New Orleans last year. The football team and the Saints allowed the fourth and fifth Uist fantasy point
Starting point is 00:23:16 to opposing running backs, respectively. Obviously, the Broncos are missing a key difference maker that will be back this year and contributing. So I think that Saquon himself is going to want to ease in. And I think that the front office, you know, Gettleman has to justify this early, early draft capital spent on Barkley and whether it was worth it given the market surrounding the position. And if. And you just can't throw him back. You need to ease him in, and you need to get him used to feeling contact.
Starting point is 00:23:52 These videos that he's posting are great, but there's no contact. He's not wearing pads. And so I'm not quite sure that the volume that we have been used to seeing Barkley with, both via the passing game and on the ground are going to match what we anticipate. And I'm not quite sure under Jason Garrett, this offense can be efficient enough to make up for that deficit. Still have him RB six, but he's not like my number four overall pick. Man makes me want to draft Devin Devante Booker after hearing all that. I agree with you, Liz. The schedule is rough to begin the year.
Starting point is 00:24:25 I've got them rated with the ninth worst running back schedule to begin the season. So that will be tough for him. And it's not like he's going to get a lot of contact. They're not going to have him take on contact in training camp very much. And they're probably not going to run him out in the preseason very much. So there could be an easing in. But we have seen before. Look,
Starting point is 00:24:45 it just, it's a case by case thing where sometimes a coach will say, all right, well, we're just, we're only going to give them a limited amount of work in the first game or something like that. And then they go out and they have 25 touches because they feel fine.
Starting point is 00:24:57 Coach, you feel good. Players says, yeah, I'm good. Okay. Go out there, keep going.
Starting point is 00:25:01 So I would hate to tell people don't take Saquon Barkley with a first round pick because he's going to have a slow start to the season. Because the other thing that we've seen a ton of times is a player is either hurt or suspended to start the year. And then he ends up being just fine. And he finishes as a top five player at his position. I agree with Liz. This, this is the number six running back in fantasy. I would take him with the first round pick. Yeah. Yeah. I also think you have to keep in mind roster construction because if you are able, and this is what Dave and I are both providing, if you know that he's going to start slow, then you can set your, nobody wants to go 0-2 in your first games.
Starting point is 00:25:40 This is a head that you got to win early in fantasy football in season long and so now you can maybe add more ceiling in your flex spot or draft accordingly if you know that he if you can anticipate a slow start you can adjust accordingly so i i agree with dan like you're going to take him in the first round but just don't expect a fire start hey one more thing he the acl tear was on sept 20th, and we're basically at July 20th, right? It's been 10 months. So by now, he should be on a standard injury, good to go. So maybe there's a lot more to it that's slowing him down. Well, he didn't get the surgery immediately, and that was because,
Starting point is 00:26:31 according to the doctor I spoke to, likely they wanted his MCL to heal on its own. So he prehabbed for a month ahead of the surgery. Okay. So then in that case, he would be on the timetable because the surgery was in late October. Yeah. So a month after he tore the ACL, you're right. He had the surgery on it. Okay. That's good stuff. So maybe he is on time. Okay. And the other news item I have is that someone stole Young Wae Koo's Jeep. That's Falcons kicker Young Wae Koo. They stole his Jeep,
Starting point is 00:26:54 and he said, can you just bring my cleats back, though? I won't even be mad, bro. Just bring all my cleats back so I can go kick. That's perspective right there. Just give the man his cleats back. You can have the Jeep. That's a pretty good deal. That's perspective right there. Just give the man his cleats back. You can have the Jeep.
Starting point is 00:27:06 That's a pretty good deal. Yeah, I like that. And I think Youngbae Ku is actually on Liz Lowe's awesome Scottfish Bowl team. He's my number one kicker in my rankings. And now,
Starting point is 00:27:17 knowing that he's a Jeep driver, I like him even more. I mean, that's my number one car. Well, he's not driving that Jeep right now, Liz. Someone else is driving it. How do you feel about Schwinn? Because that's what he's got right now. Oh.
Starting point is 00:27:31 He doesn't have his car right now. Fine. Fair. But he hopefully gets his cleats. All right. We are using, or I am using, average draft position on NFC since July 1st. As we talk about the toughest players to rank, we'll go through Liz's four and then Dave's. Liz already gave us Jalen Hurts, who I mentioned is QB 10.
Starting point is 00:27:50 And the running back that she provided is Joe Mixon. Also, we'll talk about Kenny Galladay and Noah Fant, one of each position. Very cool. Joe Mixon, you think, is very tough to rank. Discuss. Well, I know where I land on Joee mixon and i'm ahead of the consensus but i think he's one of the more divisive running backs because of the injury history because
Starting point is 00:28:11 he hasn't necessarily always returned on investment um and i think a lot of that has to do he's one of those players that if you're not for him you say oh there are a million excuses and if you do believe him if you do believe him you if you do believe him, you cite all of those excuses. I think that he is talented. I don't think that anyone can say he's not. In 2019, he evaded the most tackles among any running back in the league at an average of 6.4 per game. So you think, oh, great, great. Well, we know he has that talent. But you don't want your running back evading all those tackles because that means the offensive line is really bad, which is obvious in Cincinnati.
Starting point is 00:28:49 Add Joe Burrow, though, and that evaded tackle number goes down to 4.7 per game because Burrow adds an electricity to the offense that prevents opposing defenses from so regularly stacking boxes against Nixon. In fact, here's a fun stat. Last year, Nixon recorded a light front carry rate of 60%, which was RB seven for that category. Throw in Jamar chase. We still got T Higgins. We still got Tyler Boyd. We no longer have geo Bernard. And so now there are
Starting point is 00:29:19 passing game opportunities with who mix it with which mix and who is an efficient pass catcher can absorb. And there's more field stretching opportunities and so i think he has an opportunity to flirt with his 2018 numbers the question mark and this is why he's tough to rank is whether or not he can stay healthy enough and actually do it i mean the light box rate liz is that seven or fewer in the box or six or fewer in the box i will double check it i believe i'm the this i've used two different so let me check the uh one that i referenced in that article yeah so that's something that i've been looking at with running backs too and it makes perfect sense that teams are they're going to sit down joe and especially figure their guys up front can
Starting point is 00:30:02 manhandle the Bengals offensive line, which wasn't that improved. And they've got to do something about all these receivers that they have. So I think in, in, in a way, Mixon has a chance to definitely be better than last year. Cause he got hurt and he had one great game and everything else was just
Starting point is 00:30:18 kind of meh. But I think he's got a chance to really fuel his numbers via efficiency in the receiving game. And without Gio being there, I think it would be kind of dumb for the Bengals to not at least give Mixon the opportunity to be a three down back. And I think that overall, he'll have a chance to put up some good numbers, provided that he stay healthy. I know that's been an issue. I think the bigger issue is that there's a bunch of fantasy managers out there that are like, nope, don't want anything to do with him. He's disappointed me before. He disappointed me in 2020. He disappointed me several years ago and
Starting point is 00:30:50 he's on the Bengals and the Bengals always lose. And I guess I get that, but I also know that the Bengals can and probably will produce a lot of points this year. So I'm, I'm on board with Mixon as a top 15 running back.'m if if i really got cold feet on naji harris he'd probably crack my top 12 so i have him at running back 10 so i'm a little more bullish for all the reasons you cited on him um and it is uh six in the box by the way wow so that's a really that's a really high rate. And that was last year, huh? Before they even got Chase. So that, that would encourage me a lot because I can't see that percentage changing going into 21. No. So that's what I mean about the efficiency.
Starting point is 00:31:37 And so I understand it. And I think the recency bias always i mean always weighs in but there is good reason to have a headache because of his prior performances over drafting him i ultimately when doing the math though decided like well numbers don't lie and durability can only be so much and so i'm gonna put him inside my top 12 yeah look if you just look at his 16-game pace for the last three seasons, Joe Mixon has been on pace for 1,673 total yards, 1,424 total yards, 1,509 total yards. Last year was deceiving because there was one game
Starting point is 00:32:19 with just a huge game against Jaguars, but also as kind of bad as he was as a rusher in some of those other games, he still was very involved in the passing game. They kind of phased Geo out. And in PPR, he still had respectable games. But if he's more consistent, I mean, this is a guy, just the raw numbers,
Starting point is 00:32:37 he's been on pace for more than 1,400 total yards three seasons in a row. Per game, he's been a top 12 running back two of the last three seasons. Really, why he hasn't been incredible as, as a fantasy option. He hasn't had a, an outlier touchdown season.
Starting point is 00:32:52 He's been on pace for usually around 10, 11 total touchdowns, something like that. You figure there's, there's definitely a chance for a lot. Nobody's taking them off the field and the goal line and the offense could be the best that's been in a very long time. So might come down to that and what i find crazy we're talking here about where you have in the rankings in adp on nfc he's 19th overall and he's rb14 and he's
Starting point is 00:33:17 after antonio gibson and dave we're gonna do fft and five after this, and I'm going to pick a few players that I think are tough to rank. Sure. And Antonio Gibson gives me headaches, but there is no chance in hell I would ever take him over Joe Mixon. I cannot understand that. I can't see a justification for that, and that's what ADP says. Three picks ahead of Joe Mixon, in fact. Only one running back spot ahead of him, But that just boggles my mind.
Starting point is 00:33:46 I'm with you on that one. I've got Mixon actually one spot ahead of Gibson. So if I was forced with that decision, I would take Mixon over Gibson. And I think it would be because of the workload that is expected. And I think that's pretty much it. The thing that really does bother me when it gets to Mixon is because he's never had that outlier touchdown year, he's never been fully consistent. In 2018, for example, he got you 15 or more PPR points in half of his 14 games,
Starting point is 00:34:12 and that's like the best rate that he's given you over the last three seasons. He'll give you some smash weeks, no doubt, but doing it every week, yeah, he hasn't really done that in the last three years. All right. You know, what's a tough call. I think Liz is, is Joe Mixon or Stefan Diggs and Deandre Hopkins, you know, what do you, what decision do you make there? So whether or not you're going to draft receiver. Yeah. I mean, I think I'm probably going to take Joe Mixon and maybe this is old school thinking, but we talked admittedly about the fishbowl. There is such an amazing glut of wide receiver three options, all of whom could hit. And I trust my analysis and my gut enough
Starting point is 00:34:51 to know which of those guys I can hit on in those sandwich rounds of a draft that can propel me to make up any difference. But at running back, it just gets lean real fast. So I think I would probably, I mean, I'm higher on nuke than a lot of people because of the old man narrative attached to him now but i i think i would lean more towards mixin because of the scarcity at the position i'm going to do a twitter poll and see who people are taking in half ppr mixin or antonio gibson i want to see how how out of touch i am if i am i think you should do a second one with Mixon or a receiver not named Tyreek slash Devontae.
Starting point is 00:35:29 What if I just did one Twitter poll? Who are you taking in half PPR? Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Stefan Diggs. Does that work? I don't know if we'll get a real barometer that way on Mixon. I think that's what we're looking for is a referendum on Joe Mixon from the public. Then I will do two separate Twitter posts.
Starting point is 00:35:46 Jeez, Dave. That's like 10 seconds of typing. You do more work. All right. Listen, quick promotion here. We've been talking about the Scott Fish Bowl. Scott Fish is the man. He has generously offered up spots to play against our experts in next year's Scott Fish Bowl.
Starting point is 00:36:00 Coveted spots in the Scott Fish Bowl. In August, we're going to put those spots up for auction for St. Jude. So you'll be able to bid on a spot in leagues against each of our experts, and 100% of the proceeds are going to St. Jude. So just be on the lookout for it. We're raising a ton of money this fall. Be a part of it, and you could even be in the Scott Fish Bowl next year. I want to talk about Kenny Galladay.
Starting point is 00:36:19 He's wide receiver 27, and his ADP in NFC is fascinating, Liz. He's wide receiver 27. and his ADP in NFC is fascinating, Liz. He's wide receiver 27. He's 61st overall. He is just after T. Higgins and Brandon Ayuk. We're talking about Kenny Galladay here. But he is eight picks before the next receiver off the board, which is Odell Beckham. So it is an obvious tier of these wide receiver twos, basically.
Starting point is 00:36:42 Galladay's at the tail end of it, and then it's Beckham, who's probably going too early, we'll say. I think the CBS folk would say ahead of Claypool, ahead of Juju and others. But anyway, you think Kenny Gallaudet is very tough to rank. Let me tell you this. I just want to tell you
Starting point is 00:36:55 that with David Blau and Jeff Driscoll a couple years ago, he was on pace for 60 catches, 1,100 yards, and eight touchdowns. With those bums, and I swear catches, 1,100 yards, and eight touchdowns. With those bums. And I swear they're probably, I think, worse than Daniel Jones. But what do you find difficult about ranking Kenny Galladay? And where do you have him ranked?
Starting point is 00:37:14 Well, like everything, it's multi-pronged. And that's why it makes it difficult. I will also admit that I have a team named Rosé Al-Galladay. This is a pet player of mine. I grew up in Chicago. He went to Northern Illinois University. I love these small school underdogs. I fell into the baby Tron trap. And what you are referencing, the numbers that he was able to put up with nobody's is his incredible talent and talent. This is something that Andy Barron's taught me is always a tiebreaker. However,
Starting point is 00:37:39 I think that there is more going on here than just a too many mouths to feed scenario, though that is certainly part of this. And a too many mouths to feed scenario, though that is certainly part of this. And in an offense led by Jason Garrett, again, I'm not entirely comfortable or confident that, you know, there's going to be a wild pace for the Giants, especially to Garrett's credit of how well he was able to turn over that defense. But here is the thing. I think we have to like, this was another player, the third player that I profiled in my rest versus rest series with Dr. Alex Weber and the labral tear, the presumed labral tear that existed within his hip. I don't see anywhere having been repaired surgically. Their labral tears can be asymptomatic in plenty of players. The orthopedic community does not know why some become symptomatic and others do not.
Starting point is 00:38:29 I think what happened in Kenny G's case, and this is just by my own research and a little bit of conjecture, is that he hurt himself early on. And because there was probably a labral tear, he hurt himself in the preseason, but, you know, came back from that was absolute fire and then the the hip issue became symptomatic he had to sit for a while when it was time for him he had every intention of returning when it was time for him to come back however like Patricia was fired Quinn was gone the lion season was over he knew he was in a contract year why bother sacrificing his body so he made a business decision.
Starting point is 00:39:05 It was quite a good one. I mean, there's a four-year $72 million deal in a week. Wide receiver market certainly proved to be a good business decision. But also, I don't see anywhere where he got the labral tear fixed. Now, could it remain asymptomatic for the entire year? Sure, it could. Could it also crop up? Yes, it could. Again, a headache up? Yes, it could. Again,
Starting point is 00:39:26 a headache. For reference, my wide receiver 24, so the bottom of my wide receiver two options. I've already talked about the volume issue. The other issue is the quarterback that we have to deal with. Can Danny Dimes throw into tight windows, which he's going to need to do with a player like Gallaty, who does not get much separation, but wins at contested catches. That's another question mark. He hasn't, Jones hasn't done it before. Now, has he not done it before because he didn't have a receiver who could allow him to do it? Again, another question mark. All of these things make it difficult to be confident about where to put Kenny Galladay, even though we know he has the supreme talent. It's about the puzzle pieces all melding together. When I fold in the potential of
Starting point is 00:40:11 like him missing more time, especially in an extended season, now that we have 17 games and soft tissue issues become a, being wildly unpredictable. I have him at the bottom of my wide receiver two options. He's not even a wide receiver two for me. All right. So he's, he's, he is a, he is a number one.
Starting point is 00:40:30 No, I'm just kidding. He's a, he's a high end flex. Uh, well, what is he? Do you have the number?
Starting point is 00:40:35 I got him 27th. Oh, that's exactly where he's being drafted. Well, then look at me being square, but I like that. He's top 10 in consistency. Each of the last few seasons
Starting point is 00:40:46 uh we're always looking for 15 ppr points per game from our receivers he's giving you at least 14 ppr four or five last year 10 of 16 in 2019 uh 8 of 15 with 14 plus 2018 you wish it was that little extra point higher but i guess you could live with it if it was 14 i hated the way that the giants offense operated last year there wasn't a receiver this is nothing to do with kenny but hire, but I guess you could live with it if it was 14. I hated the way that the Giants offense operated last year. There wasn't a receiver. This is nothing to do with Kenny, but they didn't have a thousand yard receiver. They didn't have three touchdowns. I like going back and looking at Jason Garrett's track record with receivers and how he likes having that number one outside threat. When he called plays in Dallas, we talked about this on Monday's podcast, five of six seasons,
Starting point is 00:41:22 a guy had a thousand yards and or eight touchdowns the two the two the seasons where he didn't have a thousand receiver he had two with 850 the year he didn't have a receiver with eight touchdowns he had two with six touchdowns i'm just wondering if that's not enough for gala day like if you're drafting gala day you have to look at him and say okay his ceiling might be around a thousand to eleven00 yards and six to eight touchdowns and if you if you appropriate those numbers to him i think you just view him as a high-end flex especially if the hip does continue to be a problem for him yeah i think i think dave is hitting on something i mean i you mentioned though that he has been consistent those are overall numbers he finished
Starting point is 00:42:03 2019 the wide receiver five overall, but he's always been highly varied because he doesn't, he's never had a ton of volume. He's just had a ton of high, high value targets. He averaged 13.6 fantasy points per contest in that same 2019 year, which was wide receiver nine. So wide receiver nine per week, wide receiver five overall, again, because of the high value opportunities. And I haven't projected. I think it's interesting that you said his ceiling was about a thousand yards. I have him for nine 85, seven touchdowns and 10 white knuckles. That's exactly right in that range that I gave you. I like that projection a lot, and I think that's how
Starting point is 00:42:45 people should remember those numbers when you go to draft Galladay. Make sure you're not leaving a receiver on the board that's got 1,200-yard 9 or 10 touchdown potential. Yeah, upside's going to be a problem for him, but I think
Starting point is 00:43:01 I do think there's a high floor for him because he has really not had good quarterback play in his career because 2018 was his first good year. It was a 1,000-yard season, 1,063 yards in 15 games, so 1,100-yard pace. Matthew Stafford had a broken back and didn't even throw for 3,800 yards. It was one of his worst years. Stafford was terrible. Then in 2019, Stafford missed half the season, and then last year, Galladay played four games and he was very good in those four games. So I think actually, believe it or not, Daniel Jones can be as good as what he's as, as what Galladay has actually played with. Cause he just hasn't really played with peak Stafford all that
Starting point is 00:43:40 much. Interestingly enough. And when he did play with Pete Stafford, the first eight games of 2019, he was really good and was better than his season-long numbers. All right, next up is Noah Fant, and then we'll take a break, and then we'll get to Dave's guys. Noah Fant, man, I mean, I was just watching some video of Noah Fant today, and then Dallas Goddard, and then TJ Hawkinson.
Starting point is 00:44:04 And Liz, you talked about the motto that talent has to be a tie today. And then Dallas Goddard and then TJ Hawkinson and Liz, you know, you talked about the motto, the talent has to be a tiebreaker. I don't, he is so good, you know, and this, it's so frustrating. He's so fast. I don't know who the fastest tight end in football is, but he's got to be up there. Maybe it's Waller. I don't, I know it could be Kelsey. Maybe I'm just an idiot for not saying it's him, but I think he ran a 4, 5, 40. He's a tight end. He's so good. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:44:28 And he is tough to rank, for sure. He's tight end 8 in ADP right now. Late round 8 pick. 14 picks after Dallas Goddard. 6 picks before Logan Thomas. So I think Fant is definitely going to fall into the Goddard-Fant group in your drafts. But do you just struggle with the talent versus opportunity and targets and offense thing that we're all struggling with with Fant?
Starting point is 00:44:51 I mean, I wouldn't say opportunity, but I do struggle with his potential. I mean, he's a fascinating study for many of the reasons that you're highlighting. He is an athletic marvel, a 95th percentile spark score. But remember, why is he a first round drafted what was everybody saying when he came out of Iowa because of his ability to win in the red area of the field well then tell me why he has just three touchdowns in
Starting point is 00:45:17 back-to-back seasons that's just the beginning of it Liz do you know how many red zone targets he had last year i do in fact he drew 12 and he managed seven completions in the red area of the field out of 12 red zone targets it's ridiculous it needs to be much higher yeah and he's got four drops in back-to-back season so this is the this is and now we've got court and that was without courtland sutton remember right so now we've got courtland sutton we've seen Judy Flash. We don't know who the quarterback is going to be. So I have him as like a low-end tight end one, but I don't want him in any league.
Starting point is 00:45:53 And maybe I'm missing out, but that's fine. I would rather stream because all of these players that we have discussed are the players who are going to smash high one week and probably flatline for you the following. And they're highly variant players, which makes their overall rank very difficult to ascertain. Case in point, weeks one and two for Noah Fant last year, 33 PPR points. Awesome. He then averaged 7.5 PPR points per game in the
Starting point is 00:46:19 remaining 13 games. He only had three games with 10 or more Ppr points so he got off to a hot start and then all of a sudden he disappears in that offense well he hurt his ankle that's the issue he hurt his ankle okay but i mean he still played in a bunch of games the ankles what slowed him down the ankles what kept him from being used in the red zone why wouldn't they use this and it's a i don't i don't know if i like it well dave he. He also caught three touchdowns all year and two of them were in weeks one and two. That's why fantasy points are much higher in those games.
Starting point is 00:46:50 I think if the team loved him, they would find ways to manufacture targets for him inside the 20-yard line. And they didn't do enough of it last year. He was tied for 18th among tight ends and red zone targets.
Starting point is 00:47:07 18th among tight ends. I don't know. It just feels like, well, studying a guy like Julio Jones and why doesn't he score touchdowns, I've noticed throughout the year that some players, their red zone targets fluctuate so much.
Starting point is 00:47:20 So I really could see this changing. It could be if they go to Bridgewater, maybe it starts happening. I can't sit here and say the coaches didn't do a good enough job getting him involved because for all I know, it could have been all on Drew Locke. Or for all I know, he just wasn't getting open.
Starting point is 00:47:34 I don't know. But he is so- I mean, or he has bad hands. Yeah, yeah. He's just... And they didn't throw a lot of touchdowns. It's not like they were good in the red zone. They just were bad, right? So he's just... And they didn't throw a lot of touchdowns. It's not like they were good in the red zone. They just were bad, right?
Starting point is 00:47:46 So he's really hard for me because I don't like skipping talent. He's so talented. But the Sutton thing just is a crusher for me. It's the Sutton thing. It's the Judy thing. It's the Drew Locke thing. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:48:02 And it's the running thing. And it's the good defense thing. Oh, that's's the running thing. Like, forget about it. Oh, that's another good point. The defense is going to be really good this year. So, and then they're, they've got enough horses in their stable at running back to where we can't say,
Starting point is 00:48:14 well, once Melvin Gordon goes down, they're going to have to throw 30 times a game or 40 times a game. Yeah. That's not going to happen either. So to me, it's, it's an opportunity issue for Noah fan.
Starting point is 00:48:24 All right. We will take a break here on Fantasy Football today. When we come back, we will check out on the two Twitter polls that I had to come up with. And then we'll go through Trey Sermon and whatever else we can get to. We'll start with the Steelers wide receivers. Dave really wanted to talk about them and being very difficult to rank. All right.
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Starting point is 00:49:54 that Gibson was going ahead of him, and right now Gibson is leading. In half PPR, he has 51.4% of the vote, and Mixon, 48.6%. Liz, am I way off here? I feel like it's such a leap with Antonio Gibson to put him ahead of Mixon 48.6. Liz, am I way off here? I feel like it's such a leap with Antonio Gibson to put him ahead of Mixon, but I do think that you said there's that group that's like,
Starting point is 00:50:11 or maybe Dave said it, they were burned by Mixon and will never draft him again. People have a lot of anger toward Joe Mixon. What do you think, Gibson versus Mixon, real quick? I have Gibson at 12, I think, and Mixon at 10. So again, they're close. I get it. But I think you've been doing this long enough to know that recency bias weaves its way into every single pre-season discussion. I think that's a large part. And I also think that the Washington football team is just one of the most exciting teams out there, right? Like they, they're coming off of, uh, an impressive playoff stint and Ryan Fitzpatrick makes this offense all the
Starting point is 00:50:49 more exciting. And it's hard to not want to attach yourself to these Washington football teamers. Not for me, but, uh, for, yeah,
Starting point is 00:50:59 uh, that's so interesting. I just, I feel like it's coming up so much. You're right. People have so much faith in their offense. Do you generally have faith in their offense? Liz?
Starting point is 00:51:11 I mean, this year I will say that one of my spicy, I am betting on them to win the division. Um, their odds are just behind the giants, I believe. But yeah, I think they're a spicy offense and I like them a lot.
Starting point is 00:51:23 Yeah. Scott Turner has been top 10 in pace and pass attempts in back-to-back years. How can you not love it? And with that defense? Come on. I thought it was the Cowboys then Washington then the Giants and the Eagles in terms of odds.
Starting point is 00:51:37 That's right. The thing is nobody ever wins that division twice in a row, Liz, so it's going to be... I was a Giants fan. That's okay. The Cowboys can win, too. Who are you taking in half PBR, Joe Mixon or Stefan Diggs? This one's not even close.
Starting point is 00:51:55 77.4% to Stefan Diggs. Wow. Okay. Okay, Dave. Let's talk about your guys who are tough to rank. The Steelers wide receivers right now Deontay Johnson and NFC average draft position is a wide receiver 20 it's going 50th overall and Chase Claypool and Juju are back-to-back wide receiver 29 and 30 72nd overall and that is the end of round six so is it is they're difficult to rank do you find that it's difficult to even predict who the best one
Starting point is 00:52:25 is going to be yes because and i've got at least i have that down to two guys where i've got deontay johnson who i think just volume will help him be that main receiver in pittsburgh like he was last year but i look at claypool and we've talked about this before, about how Chase Claypool just has this unique body type and size speed combination. And it would just make sense for the Steelers to keep scheming him up in their offense. Like they did last year as he takes a step forward in his second season. Whereas Juju to me,
Starting point is 00:52:57 isn't in the conversation, even though he did get volume last year, he regressed with his efficiency. I don't see him as a playmaker. I just see him as a guy that can compile a lot of catches and that's good for fantasy, but it doesn't necessarily mean that he's going to go and be a top five or top 10 fantasy wide receiver. So what I've done with this offense, cause I'm, I'm trying to get a beat on them too. And I've spent a lot of time on the Steelers this off season. I did my research on Matt Canada.
Starting point is 00:53:23 He's their new offensive coordinator. He called a lot of plays in college. He uses a lot of pre-snap motion to clue the quarterback in on what type of a defense he's going to have. He loves play action. He loves quick throws. We know the Steelers did a ton of quick throwing last year, and he really preaches completions and high yards after catch. So he wants those yards after catch to be there. It's kind of like a quicker-paced version of a West Coast offense when it comes to the passing game. Roethlisberger on play action last year. His completion rate was under 70% adjusted.
Starting point is 00:53:57 It was 40th best. He had one touchdown on play action, according to Pro Football Focus. Getting rid of the ball in under two and a half seconds. He had 26 touchdowns four interceptions 80.8 adjusted completion rate but an average depth of throw of 5.5 yards 73 of all of his throws were under two and a half seconds who does this benefit in the offense i think it benefits johnson and i think it benefits juju in terms of again their volume but i i just can't shake claypool and the talent that he's got and the fact that when defenses do decide to play man against the steelers they're not going to have anybody there to to combat claypool and i think
Starting point is 00:54:38 he can be a bigger game wrecker in the red zone and i think that he's got a chance to really be the most improved receiver in the Steelers offense. But there's one more thing on top of all that. And this is a Steelers team that ran the ball 20.1 times per game with their running backs in 2020. It was the 10th lowest in football. Their quarterbacks averaged 41 attempts per game. That was the highest in the league by 1.1 attempts per game. That was Dallas. Those numbers are going to so rothlisberger isn't going to throw as much now she's there he's going to run more and it makes me wonder what it's going to do to the target share for all three of these guys and it makes me wonder how many of them can really finish his top 20 options by the time the season ends and how many of them can realistically even be top 30 options if Roethlisberger's throwing less
Starting point is 00:55:25 and if he's not getting consistent playmaking after the catch from all three of these guys. So I struggle with them. Yeah, it's tough. Liz, do you think that Deontay Johnson should be 20 picks ahead of Claypool and Juju? I do think that Deontay Johnson has the best breakout appeal of all of these.
Starting point is 00:55:45 I think his skill set is the most varied enough. I like what Dave was saying because I think Juju is like this wide receiver three because of volume. But when you fold in Najee Harris, who by the way has plus 600 odds to win rookie of the year, I will take those odds are delicious. I, and it doesn't like Matt Canada can want to try to get the ball out as quickly as possible. He's going to have to, because of his quarterback and my only fear about Claypool. And I hear what you're saying, Dave. And honestly, Johnson is like Johnson had all these drops,
Starting point is 00:56:14 not because he has bad hands, but because the timing with Roethlisberger wasn't good enough because Roethlisberger shoulder wasn't strong enough, I think, to connect. And so for that reason, I think that Juju is this like not at all sexy, very, very floor play. But if previously we talked about these, you know, high variance players, you're not going to get that, I think, as much from Juju. You know, you can probably rely on, this is not something sexy, but you can probably rely on like, you know, tight end six numbers from him week in and week out.
Starting point is 00:56:47 Ooh. Wow. Move him up in the draft boards know tight end six numbers from him week in week out oh wow move him up in the draft as we speak all right well as i was doing what how many like catches in yards i was like well that's kind of what i would like like out of my like second tier of tight end so who do you like better Claypool or Juju I mean I'm going to be a moon shooter and go with Claypool yeah okay one other nice thing about Claypool is when he went up against man coverage or zone coverage last year he averaged over five yards after catch
Starting point is 00:57:17 yards after contact per catch that was a good yeah that was a good that's one of the things that Canada's looking for. Deontay was over five yards also against zone coverage, but not against man. Juju was below four, right around four, 4.1 either way.
Starting point is 00:57:35 All right, Trey Sermon is also on your list of toughest players to rank. He is RB29, 75th overall, going after James Robinson and Chase Edmonds before Michael Carter and his teammate Raheem Mostert or Sermon's teammate Raheem Mostert and Melvin Gordon so it's like Sermon, Carter, Mostert, Gordon very close to each other and Dave what do you find difficult about ranking
Starting point is 00:57:57 Sermon? Well speaking of sexy this is the sexy running back to take in San Francisco he's swagalicious in that he knows this run scheme very well. He studied it when he was transferring to Ohio State. I think that's good. But I feel like there's going to be somebody in every league that reaches for Trey Sermon. I don't know if I want to be that guy because Kyle Shanahan's kind of made it clear over his time in San Francisco that he's not really ready to sink all of the work into one guy. He hasn't had a rookie running back even earn 200 touches in any year from 2014 through 2020. That predates his time in San Francisco.
Starting point is 00:58:33 You'd have to go back to guys like Alfred Morris to find a rookie running back that really did well under Shanahan. And Sermon also has injuries of his own. He cracked a vertebrae in 2015, a torn left LCL in 19, dislocated his left shoulder of January of this year. So I wonder if there's going to be some consistent, let's just use everybody at running Wilson are all around in San Francisco. There won't be a time where you'll feel great about starting Trey Sermon. My guess is that he'll have five really nice games for fantasy this year. Good luck figuring out when they're going to be. Liz, do you take Mostert or Sermon? I'm probably going to take Sermon. I agree that he's difficult. He was my number five running back heading into the draft. I will say, because San Francisco made a deal with the Rams,
Starting point is 00:59:39 and obviously McVay and Shanahan have a familiarity with one another, but San Francisco made a deal with the Rams to move up and they added him with the number 88 pick to me. That investment means that, and mosters 2020 was not something I think he wants to remember or Kyle Shanahan wants to remember. Although I was listening to the flying coach podcast with Sean McVay and Shanahan.
Starting point is 01:00:01 Yeah, it's great show. Right. And Shanahan was on as a guest and he was like oh yeah that time he like was referencing a previous playoff game and he was like yeah that time most art was on i was like oh uh that's that's an interesting influx i felt like or that he used um in talking about most or regardless i think that this is shanahan's newest toy other than trey lance like this is Shanahan's newest toy other than Trey Lance. And we know that obviously this is a scheme-friendly offense for the running back position.
Starting point is 01:00:32 It's averaged over 400 in rushing attempts over the last three seasons. And both Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert closed out 2020 inside the top 30 in fantasy points per game. So that's also what's helping to boost sermon. I agree. I've had trouble ranking sermon as well, because it's not just as injury history, Dave,
Starting point is 01:00:50 but also, and I think you're going to agree with this, his running style invites this sort of injury issue. And Shanahan likes those kinds of bats, Tevin Coleman, Derek McKinnon. Like he has a trace sermon is Shanahan's type. And Shanahan's type has proven that he,
Starting point is 01:01:07 that they cannot sustain a full 16, now 17 game season. Yeah. He didn't get a ton of work. One last thing. I mentioned that Shanahan hasn't had a rookie running back with over 200 touches since 2014. He hasn't had a 49ers running back period get over 200 touches with the exception of Carlos Hyde in 2017. So 18,
Starting point is 01:01:28 19, 20, he didn't have one that even had 200 touches over the bounce of the year. None of them had a thousand yards either. Yeah. So sermon here, I just found this funny.
Starting point is 01:01:36 He had 114 carries, 116 carries more than half of them came in two games. And that was the big 10 championship game. He had 29 carries for 331 yards and two touchdowns. And then the college football semifinal, he had 31 carries against Clemson, 193 yards and a touchdown. And then unfortunately he only had one carry in the national championship
Starting point is 01:01:57 game and he got hurt. But he wasn't a workhorse by any means until those two last two games for him. Basically he had 60 carries. Also, slow 40 time, but they love his 10-yard split. He had a very fast 10-yard split, so he gets going quickly.
Starting point is 01:02:13 Doesn't have the high-end speed like Mostert does, but they love that he had like 95th percentile on his 10-yard split. All right, Dave, we are... You know what? I think this whole conversation made me a lot more comfortable with where to rank Trey Sermon. And where is that? Where are you putting him?
Starting point is 01:02:28 I think I'm going to move him down. I think I'm not going to be the guy that goes after Trey Sermon. Okay. So is he inside or outside of your top 25? He'll be outside. How about 30? Yeah, how about 30? I think he'll be right around there.
Starting point is 01:02:44 So good flex, good non-PPR flex when you know he's my, yeah. How about 30? I think he'll be right around there. So good flex, good number three, good non PPR flex. When you know he's going to play. I don't know. I just feel like he could end up clogging my roster for big chunk of the year and the injuries, the lack of consistent success in college and Shanahan's track record. It just makes me nervous. Where is he for you?
Starting point is 01:03:04 Liz? I have him RB 26 right now. 26. All right. So I'm not as wave-ozy as Dave is right now. I don't know if I can put him outside my top 30. I guess the investment, though, the draft investment is real enticing to me. Third round pick, fourth, I believe, right, the fourth running back off the board. Number 88 overall. And trading up for him definitely means something. third round pick fourth, I believe, right. The fourth running back off the board, uh, number 88.
Starting point is 01:03:26 Oh, right. And trading up for him definitely means something. All right. Well, we're going to save Curtis Samuel for fantasy football today in five and Antonio Gibson. We're going to have to pick one player is not on Washington.
Starting point is 01:03:36 Um, we'll get to that. Please check out FFT and five and make sure you're following Liz at Liz Loza underscore FF and all of her Olympics coverage. And it was awesome having you on. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. I love coming on. And Dave, thank you for helping me tweak my rankings. I guess Yahoo should pay you a little bit because you helped me out here. On the house. No problem. Appreciate it. Yes. And when Kadri Olesen has taken over for Mike Davis and Ramondre Stevenson's
Starting point is 01:04:07 getting two carries a game, your Scott Fishbowl team is going to be even better. No, no, no. What's going to happen is Kadri Allison's going to go off and Liz and I will meet in the championship for the trophy because we both have Allison on our Scott Fishbowl. Wait a second. Hold on. Talk amongst yourselves. I think I might have Kadri Allison on my team. Oh, that would be amazing if you got him too. I got him in round 20. I lied. I don't. Oh, I got him in 17. Okay, it doesn't really matter when you get him, as long as you got him on the squad.
Starting point is 01:04:34 He ran in round 21. He's going to be the reason why we succeed this year in fishbowl. Q-O. You're going to face the manager of Allison in Chains from the Alice in Chains division who drafted Kadri Olsen. That's a great pick. Excellent. All right.
Starting point is 01:04:49 And if he would, would you? Yes. Good job, Dave. Again, it's a very difficult band to make song puns with. But luckily, Jennifer Lopez isn't. That's Liz Loza, Dave Richard. I am Adam Azer.
Starting point is 01:05:03 Thanks very much for listening, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.

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