Fantasy Football Today - The Eight Toughest Players to Rank! (07/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 19, 2022

Vote for us for Best Sports Podcast and Best Male-Hosted Podcast! http://podcastawards.com/app/signup/ Who are Jamey and Heath struggling to rank? Let's start with Ezekiel Elliott (3:30). He was a Fantasy superstar before his knee injury in 2021, but there are obvious concerns. Jamey struggles with Chase Edmonds (5:30) and the role he'll have in the Dolphins offense. Also, what do we make of Tua's lack of passes to running backs through the first two seasons of his career? ... News and notes (14:00) on Leonard Fournette and J.K. Dobbins. Is Fournette still a Round 2 pick? Is Gus Edwards a steal? Then back to the players who are tough to rank with Trey Lance (24:25) being one of the toughest. He could run for more than 1,000 yards easily! ... We also discuss D.K. Metcalf (28:50), Dallas Goedert (34:35), Breece Hall (38:30), Jaylen Waddle (41:30) and Marquise Brown (49:30). Adam also goes on a tangent about Mike Gesicki ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. The toughest players to rank for 2022. Four from Jamie, four from Heath. Welcome, everybody, to Fantasy Football Today. If you want to send us a question, you can email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That is the letter I. And if you want to see what we look like, you can watch us at youtube.com slash fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. That is the letter I. And if you want to see what we look like, you can watch us at youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today.

Good morning, gentlemen. When you look at players who are tough to rank, you know, what do you kind of fall back on? Opportunity, talent, history, or is it case-specific? Heath, when you look at some of the guys, like the players you gave us today are Trey Lance, Ezek elliott dk metcalf and dallas goddard a lot of talent here um what do you fall back on when it comes to players who are tough to rank i don't like when you mean what do i fall back on like how do i end up ranking them yeah i think so what ends up being the deciding factor? It's a blend for me.

But I think situation and if it's easier with DK and Goddard and Metcalf maybe because they have at least some history to lean back on. With Lance, I mean, it's a lot of guessing. Yeah, Jamie, it was a really bad question, the whole what do you fall back on thing. So is there a common thread in your four players that you gave us? Brees Hall, Chase Edmonds, Jalen Waddell, and Marquise Brown.

What makes them so difficult to rank? I mean, you have rookie, player on the team, player on the team with new coach, player on the team, or player with new coach with additional mouth to feed, maybe better mouth to feed. You know, so yeah, I don't think it's a bad question. It's, you know, and, you know, you asked for four, you know, I'm sure Heath and I probably

could have given you 44. You know, there's, you know, a lot of uncertainty with a lot of players. You know, I mean, I think that's why that's why you see, if you really pay close attention to our rankings page, I know Heath is updating his rankings. He doesn't always publish them. Dave and I change them all the time in terms of updating our rankings. It's an ever-evolving process. I went through, after being away for a week and just thinking about different players,

Adam, you and I texted about a few of them um and and changed a lot you know and and we'll continue to as things continue to evolve with you know rookie camps or rookies reporting now and training camp starting you know so it's uh there's a lot of things that go into it yeah breese hall is one of your guys and i feel like every running back in the breese hall range is hard you know antonio gibson travis etn jk dobbins elijah mitchell um josh jacobs uh zeke they're just i mean zeke goes ahead of this group but but it's that's tough it's a tough part of the draft i think uh at running back but all right if you guys want to give me a headliner here, Heath, how about you go first? Give me the, I don't know if it's the toughest,

but one that you want to talk about, one of the toughest players to rank. I think the toughest player to rank is Ezekiel Elliott. Because if what the Cowboys tell us is true, that he just was hurt last year, and that's why he was so bad in the second half of the season. And if what they're telling us now is true, that he's completely healthy, we know how much they love him. We know how much

money they owe him. He could absolutely be a top five running back again. But if he was just washed at the end of last year, then he could be a high-end flex. First five games of the season for Zeke, he scored 17.7 or more PPR fantasy points in four of the five games. I think we all remember the one that he didn't. It was week one against the bucks where he was terrible, but that was the bucks and everybody's pretty much terrible against the bucks. Then he went nuts.

17.7, 26.6, 20.3, 25.2 fantasy points per game. Zeke got hurt in week four. He was explosive in the first four or five weeks of the season. He did have those big runs. Not huge runs, not 50 yards, but you look at 12-plus yard runs,

which is how true media defines explosive runs. He had a lot of them early, and then it just stopped. So I think it's easy to conclude that the injury had something to do with it. But then again, it's kind of you know it's it's it's an older guy he's gonna be 27 years old he is 27 years old i think sometime this month and yeah he is he is tricky uh is he ahead of uh that that group i was talking about heath the breeze hall antonio gibson josh jacobs travis etn jk dobbins group i have him ahead of all of those guys he would not in full ppr be ahead of etn if we found out James Robinson was going to miss the start of the year. He would not

be ahead of J.K. Dobbins if what J.K. Dobbins tweeted yesterday is true and he's certain to be ready for week one. He's in that group, but at the front of it for now. I think it's hard to argue that those guys have more upside than he does. Jamie, who's the toughest player for you to rank or one of the toughest? I mean, you go with the two Dolphins for different reasons, but I keep waiting to find out what's the status of Raheem Mostert because that will impact Chase Edmonds to a degree.

I think Edmonds is the one you want to draft first, and I keep moving him up because of some of the guys around him, but I'm not comfortable with it from the standpoint of he's really struggled as a feature back he's better used I think as more of a complimentary back I don't think he's going to be a true feature back with the Dolphins because whether it's Mostert or Michelle or both of them they're going to get touches and carries and so Edmonds has the most upside because this might be his best opportunity and that's saying a lot because he went into last year with a huge opportunity. But the guy behind him, I think, is more proven in Arizona last year than the guys behind him now

in Miami. So we'll see how things go for Mostert and for Michelle. But, you know, you always look at certain situations. And this was the first running back signed in free agency. This was a team that we know is going to bring a better run base system than they had last year because that's what Mike McDaniel does and certainly hopefully carries over from their time in San Francisco better offensive line better offense general so Chase Edmonds has a ton of upside but uh still makes me a little nervous to keep moving him up based on what I think he's going to do based on the guys around him. In nine games with double-digit carries, Chase Edmonds has averaged 13.6 non-PPR and 17.7 full PPR fantasy points per game.

Those numbers in 2021, those per-game numbers would have made him number eight per game in both formats. So in nine games with double-digit carries, he's been a top 10 caliber running back. You know, it hasn't always been pretty. He has scored some touchdowns. He's not necessarily blowing the doors off of it when he's running the ball. And there's that one game, the first of those games, which was week seven in 2019, when he scored over 30 points against the Giants. He hasn't been nearly as good since then, but he's pretty good when he gets that work, and he usually is only getting about 12 carries. He's not getting more than 12 carries in most of

those games, but I guess four of the nine, but five of them he had 12 or fewer carries, I think. So yeah, anyway, we'll see what happens. I guess it just seems like there's been some hesitation by previous coaching staff. Well, the previous coaching staff to use him in that role, unless there's been an injury. And that brings us to our unofficial stat of the day it's it's pretty close to official but uh might be a little bit off but the bottom line is to a tongue of iloa in two seasons has not really thrown to his running backs in 2021 running backs at a 14.2 percent target share all running running backs on the Dolphins from Tua Tungabailoa, 14.2% target share. Thank you to Heath for helping me with that stat. And in 2020, there were two games where Tua got replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick.

I took those out, just the games that he started and finished. Running backs at a 15.4% target share. So around 15% each of the last two seasons, Heath. That's running back target share from Tua Tungabailoa. How does that measure up? It's bad. Definitely bottom third of the league, probably close to bottom five most years. And if you look at the Dolphins and how they ranked as a team in that regard, they were around 17%. So it's pretty obvious the other guy was throwing to running backs more than Tua was. Mike McDaniel's offense in San Francisco has been around 20% the last three seasons.

So listen, we see a lot of times with younger quarterbacks that as they develop, they dump the ball off a little bit more than they have in the past. I would expect we're going to see Josh Allen this year dump the ball off a little more than he has in the past based on the changes they've made. So I don't think we should lock Tua's first 700 pass attempts in as he's just not going to throw to his running backs. And he's not as mobile as a lot of the other guys who don't. So I do still think there's some hope, but I had the team projected at a 19% running back target share. I may pull back one or two points. Yeah, I love it when the stat of the day changes the projections. It makes me feel like I've accomplished something. It's a little strange, though, when you look at system versus player. Because we talk about this a lot with Russell Wilson, right?

He didn't throw to his running backs in Seattle. How much of that was the offense? How much of that was him? Right. How much of this is Tua? How much of this was the offense? How much of that was him? How much of this is Tua? How much of this was the offense? And the offense in San Francisco is a little weird when you look at the running backs because they didn't have a lot of receptions from their feature guy.

But what do we know about the 49ers running backs under Kyle Shanahan? The feature guy changed every year. And so Carlos Hyde in the first year with Kyle Shanahan I think he was over 40 catches and that continued to slide you know you factor in Kyle Juszczyk and what they did with their fullback and so how much of it was a running back position how much of it was the again the feature guy what we like to consider the feature guy and then you look at the caliber of running backs that they had Elijah Mitchell doesn't profile like that. Jeff Wilson doesn't profile like that.

You know, these type of running backs that they've had there. And so Chase Edmonds is certainly much more of a pass catcher. But again, how much of that now is going to be on Tua? So we'll find out, you know, what they do. And again, this kind of ties into Jalen Waddell. You know, and like Dave was talking about this, I think last week or the week before. Well, had to be the week before in regards to, you know, Waddell still being a high volume receiver because of what the run game and the pass game extension will look like. And so that's what makes me a little bit concerned about Waddell and Edmonds is that how many receptions will Jalen Waddell continue to have?

Tyreek Hill continue to have with with a short area passing game? Will that take the ball out of throwing the ball to Edmonds, for example? I think the weird thing is that Tua hasn't really thrown to his running backs much at all, and his ADOT, or whatever you want to call it, his intended air yards per pass attempt is so low. It was one of the lowest in the NFL last year. He averaged seven yards per attempt. Not seven yards, seven yards air yards per attempt. Sorry averaged seven yards per attempt, not seven yards, seven yards, air yards per attempt.

Sorry, seven air yards. I think that's something, though, you could see with both the 49ers and with the Dolphins. Like when you have wide receivers running routes two yards from the line of scrimmage, it doesn't make a lot of sense to have a running back running around out there either. Right. So maybe, I don't know, maybe this opens things up for Chase Edmonds

if we get a little bit more depth from Jalen Waddell and Tyree Kill. But it's also, you know, just to wrap it up, I think, from Edmonds' standpoint, this is probably the best system he's going to run in. And so does that allow him to maybe improve and show some things that are a little bit different as a rusher? Hope so. And I hope the offensive line is better. You know they're going to be much better at the tackle yeah but are they going to be better

as a run blocking offensive line i don't know and uh so i mean they will they will be they will be but it's still even with teron armstead or is it a is it an above average offensive line is it good enough it's probably good enough hopefully uh he's going chase evonds is going after the seahawks running backs just ahead of melvin gordon and he's going in the 90s is that too late for chase edmonds oh yeah okay would you rather have chase edmonds or tony pollard edmonds for me uh edmonds as of now but that could change depending on most or tell okay um all right let's uh let's do some news and notes here why is my phone beeping can you hear my phone it's on vibrate and it's still beeping well we got we got uh good news that we could share it so yeah we

can't share it now but yes we got good news we'll share it at some point. News and notes, big. Big stuff on J.K. Dobbins. Big stuff literally on Leonard Fournette. But before we do that, I want to tell you we have a live mock draft coming up today at 1 p.m. Eastern time on YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today. Be there. It is a non-PPR mock draft, and we don't do a ton of these. So if you're in a non-PPR league, bring it on.

If you're not in a non-PBR league, it's still the draft's going to be, you know, it's going to be different, but still plenty of things that you can learn from it. So Tara Roberts. We're going to talk about players. Yeah, exactly.

We're going to talk about players. And I love your questions because, you know, we don't want to have the same conversations all the time. So we need you there to ask us good questions, bring up interesting topics.

And that will be at youtube.com slash fantasy football today at 1 p.m. Eastern. If you miss it, and that will be at youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday at 1pm Eastern. If you miss it, you can catch it on demand. And by the way, vote for us, podcastawards.com. I'll give you a break from that. Best male podcast host. Well, obviously.

News and notes. The Bucs coaches... Wait, Heath, you got a point. Tell them where to draft. What? Oh, yeah. I'm never up a point. Tell them where to draft. What? Tell the other... Oh, yeah, point to... I'm never up here. I'm always at the bottom.

Scan the QR code. There you go. Tampa Bay coaches were not happy with Leonard Fournette skipping OTAs and then showing up for the mandatory minning camp. Overweight. Very overweight. According to...

Well, that's my editorializing. Sorry. Overweight, according to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times. But yeah, he wasn't a good start to the offseason. I don't know what he weighs right now, but Jamie, is this a big deal? Does this knock Leonard Fournette out of the second round

if you're drafting today, which we are? I mean, I hope it does in the league's admin. You know, this is going to be one of these stories that we're going to see, you know, there's, there's a handful every off season last year. We know one of the big ones was Jonathan Taylor and the injuries around him and that dropped his price and he was fantastic. This is another one that's going to continue to probably linger a little bit.

You know, it happened a little bit sooner because it was mini camp as opposed to training camp. But two things one you should still draft four net in the second round if you believe in him but also it it it will drive up the price of rashad white and so if you're out on rashad white that's good for you but if you're in on rashad white and he doesn't go up then he's still a guy that i'm targeting as well because not not with the the report about four net being overweight but if four net does

get hurt i think rashad white is the is the guy that's going to step in and play well. So one thing I thought was interesting, didn't realize, the Buccaneers the last two seasons with Brady, they've been 29th and 31st in rush attempts. And they've had 13 and 14 running back rushing touchdowns, which isn't great. And Leonard Fournette, you know, his 17- game pace in

his first 13 games, he left one, left week 15 with an injury. He only averaged 13.2 carries per game, but he was on pace for 81 catches. And we saw it two seasons ago when you had two guys splitting the work really was not good for fantasy. So even though this has been a great offense, what really boosted Leonard Fournette was the catches because he didn't really rank up there, you know, 13.5 carries per game, 13.2 carries per game. That's really nothing special. He didn't score a ton of rushing touchdowns either.

So my point is, you know, if it's not Fournette or if they split it, this is a bit of a warning sign to me. I don't know how you guys feel about that, but you kind of need an every down back based on the way they've distributed the touches the last two seasons. If you don't have an every down back in this backfield, I don't think you're going to have a fantasy starter.

Not a consistent one. Low end number two. I don't know. I think the passing game role is so important here. Yeah, I know. But let's say it's Rashad White, and then they say, okay, well, Gio Bernard is going to get the passing. You know what I mean?

If they don't give him all of the work. I mean, we felt for Gio Bernard. This is what was huge for Fournette last year, is that we felt for the Gio Bernard signing and that this was going to be the new James White, the new Danny Woodhead, the new Kevin Falk, the guy that Brady's going to lean on. And he barely played when he was healthy,

and he's had a hard time staying healthy. No, I'm sorry. So I'm saying if it's not Fournette, then if it's not Fournette, if he gets hurt or he gets benched or something like that. It might be Keyshawn Vaughn. Right. If they split up the carries, they don't run the ball enough. And if they have just a passing downs guy, they don't run the ball enough. And if they have just a passing downs guy,

they don't run the ball enough. I don't know that we should expect a committee just because right now all we've seen is that Leonard Fournette is the only running back that Tom Brady trusts, and so he's the only one who gets to play very much. There's probably just going to be one guy, Tom Brady. He doesn't trust any of the other three right now. And last year, Keyshawn Vaughn was that guy when Fournette was out.

Yeah. Okay, well, I did think it was interesting that they don't run the ball. I guess I didn't really realize that. 31st and 29th in rush attempts, last two seasons. I think the thing to keep in mind, there's a few factors here. One, they may be down Godwin for X amount of weeks, potentially, which means without Godwin, without Gronk, do they run the ball a little bit more?

You know, I would say no, but it's a possibility. There's a new head coach, so we'll see what Todd Bowles wants to do by comparison to what Berserians did. Now, I say that tongue-in-cheek, sort of, because we know that Brady is probably the one calling plays

with Byron Lefkowitz as well, as opposed to Todd Bowles maybe having any involvement in the offense at all. But they also lost two offensive linemen. So keep that in mind too. They're replacing two guards. So their offense might not be as potent from a standpoint of what they want to do, how they want to do it, how they want to get accomplished.

A lot of changes for this Bucs offense right now. I'm going to guess they're going to be fine, but there are some things in play here. J.K. Dobbins tweeted that he may not even go on the PUP list and he is confident he's going to be ready. You've got to tell the whole story because he just dunked on Ian Rappaport. Yeah, Ian Rappaport, that's part of my note here. Ian Rappaport said that J.K. Dobbins

may not be ready for week one, and Dobbins was not, he was defiant. He said he'll be ready for week one. Yeah, you should read the quote. Most of the Twitter football doctors have been very worried about JK Dobbins recovery. And most of them are just speaking in general out generalities about people who have multiple ligaments damaged and how much longer that takes.

And I, it's the rep, what rep said sounded more rep for said more like he was talking to those Twitter football doctors. And I don't think Dobbins appreciated that. I don't think Rapsheet was doing that. I think he was probably speaking to a source with the team, would be my guess.

And to be fair, for what he said was more about week one, which is still, what, a month away? Month and a half away? Yeah, oh month away? A month and a half away? Yeah, a month and a half. So, there's a lot of time for him to be ready for week one. Now, Dobbins' reply was, I don't even expect to go on the Pup List, but

Baltimore is going to be very, very cautious with him. I don't care what Dobbins thinks or wants to do. They're not going to rush him out there if he's not ready to go. He says, I'm damn sure I'm going to be ready for the season opener. And meanwhile, I still don't know what the deal is

with Gus Edwards. And I'm wondering if we should be drafting Mike Davis late. In that clip, Rep said that Gus Edwards seemed more likely to be ready than Dobbins. Okay, well then Gus Edwards is a huge steal. What did I say?

He was going 160th or something like that? I just don't know. What do you think the upside in touches for Gus Edwards is? 15 a game? With a healthy Dobbins? No. If Dobbins is out. I mean, we've already seen that.

We saw that. They're not going to throw it to him. Two years ago. And he, you know, I'll give you the numbers. Because this is the same thing we talked about last year. Gus Edwards, the week before the season started, was the second round pick last year. 2019. was it 2019 it was the end he was the starting running back i'm sorry you know i i will find it uh go i'll

come back to me but remember in 2019 he had a long stretch where he was with rookie lamar jackson the starting running back so in 2019 he had one game with more than 14 carries. 2018, I'm sorry. 2018. It was, look at this stretch here. It was a seven-game stretch. He averaged 17.4 carries per game. He averaged 5.4

yards per carry. He only scored two touchdowns. He was on pace for 296 carries, 1,588 yards, five touchdowns, and only on pace for 296 carries, 1,588 yards, 5 touchdowns, and only 2 catches in 17 games. But he did average 17.4 carries per game. That was with rookie Lamar Jackson

taking over and Gus Edwards. What a terrible team. So he could have Damian Harris upside. They actually went 6-1 in those games. Sorry. Go ahead. They turned it on late. Go ahead, Heath. He turned it on late. No. Go ahead, Heath.

He could have Damian Harris upside for the period of time that J.K. Dobbins was out. He's a steal of his ADP. Oh, yeah, right. 160, right? So, crazy. He was on the board when we did our show yesterday, and then by the time I got up again, he was off the board in my Scott Fish Bowl League

because, you know... Who did you end up taking? Who did I take? Oh, I think Tyler Higby. It was like round 15. I don't remember that pick, but... No, you know what? I think I took James Robinson.

James Robinson lasted a really long time. Then I took Tyler Higby after that. One more note, not a huge deal, but Rams defensive tackle Bobby Brown suspended six games for violating the PED policy. He is depth for them. And I'm sure he will be missed for those six games. We will take a quick break.

We'll be back to talk more about the toughest players to rank. Trey Lance, DK Metcalf. Who else? Dallas Goddard, Brees Hall, Marquise Brown Jalen Waddle get more into him

when we come back on fantasy football today what does possible sound like for your business it's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit more cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest free days

and the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Trey Lance played two and a half games last season. In one half against the Seahawks,

he scored 24.4 fantasy points, and that was in six points for passing touchdown leagues. In one start against the Cardinals, only 14.6 fantasy points, but he did rush for 89 yards. And then in his second start against Houston in week 17, he scored 23.1 fantasy points so pretty good in the limited playing time he had and heath he is one of your toughest players to rank could you see him getting into the top 12 unlikely without an injury to one of the guys in the top 12 um like i could see him clarify i don't see him getting into my top 12 quarterbacks in the rankings. I could absolutely see him finishing in the top 12. That's why he's so difficult.

He couldn't finish as a top three quarterback. I meant the rankings. With the way that he runs. Just to clarify. I meant the rankings, yeah. Just to clarify the question. With the way that he runs and the weapons that he has around him and the things that Kyle Shanahan's system has done for quarterbacks in the past

in terms of passing efficiency, there's every reason to hope that he could be a top three to five quarterback this year. It's also pretty scary for me just because of how little we've seen Trey Lance play football, not just last year, but really against good competition ever. And the fact that Jimmy Garoppolo is still on the roster. I wonder, is this a guy that you're going to have to end up reaching for and be okay with it because you can still fall back with a good option. But you might have to take him sort of ahead of his ADP. The problem I have is that I have a hard time taking him ahead of Fields.

And he always goes a couple rounds before Fields, it seems like. Jamie, you don't have that problem. You have him 15th and you have Fields 19th. Yeah, I don't have that problem at all. I think there's so much more upside for Lance based on the team that he plays for and the offense. It's not about a talent thing for these two. It's just about situation.

And I think if Lance does... I said this, I don't know, two weeks ago or so, the minute Garoppolo is traded and I don't have to worry about that anymore, Lance will be in my top 10. There's the chance for him to be this year's Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, you know, the guy that we have some concerns, questions about that ends up having that breakout season. I think he's next in line for that. So you said it, Adam. There's very easy scenarios.

I know you do this a lot in our drafts, which is the only reason I criticize you because you do it in our drafts. But if you know your league is taking two quarterbacks, or more importantly, if you know your league is not taking two quarterbacks, it's very easy, or the majority of managers is taking two quarterbacks, or more importantly, if you know your league is not taking two quarterbacks, it's very easy, or the majority of managers are taking two quarterbacks in a one QB format. It's very easy to take Lance and then come back and get a Kirk Cousins or a Derek Carr or maybe even a Matthew Stafford or Aaron Rodgers

and have your concerns about him failing, which are legitimate, making you feel a lot better about that. And it's not just necessarily those guys. I mean, you can still take the lesser ceiling, lower ceiling type of guys, Tua, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields. You can pair these guys together. Lance is a league winner if he's able to get this job and build off what he showed us last season.

Yeah, I know it's small sample size. I'm going to do the math one more time just to make sure I'm not wrong. 41 plus 89 plus 31 over 10 quarters times 4, that's 64 yards per game times 17, that's almost 1,100 rushing yards. Based on the 10 quarters that he played as a quarterback and not a gadget player, on pace for 1,095 rushing yards per 17 games, how are you not going to be a must-start quarterback

if you're running that much? And that's what he did in college. In the one year that he played, basically, he ran for 1,100 yards. So it's just, you know, he would have to be so bad passing the ball. It's almost exactly, as long as Garoppolo's on the roster,

the Hurts conundrum from last year. Because that was the whole argument against Hurts was, well, he could be so bad passing the ball that he could lose his job. Yeah, that's true. But this is a position, I think, where you're not as worried about guys losing their job. You swing for the fences in this position.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, let's do, you did Zeke. How about DK Metcalf? Heath, what makes DK Metcalf difficult to rank? He's an elite wide receiver playing with Drew Locke and Geno Smith on a team coached by Pete Carroll. It's everything about DK I love and everything about his situation I hate,

including the fact that he's still going to share with Tyler Lockett. Lockett's not going to go away. So a low volume, low efficient efficiency pass offense, where I think it's unlikely he gets to that 30% target share that would make him invincible. It's a, it's really scary, but it's also, it's hard to like, look at a guy who runs and plays like he does and looks like he does and say, yeah, he's a dumb pick in round four. I mean, I don't want to take him in round four, but look at him.

I was also reading the PFF, Pro Football Focus, offensive line rankings for the season and they tier them and they rank them and they tier them but 32nd and in the last tier was the seahawks so that's another thing that's a little scary for him uh it's so i mean the only hope with that would be that their offensive line so bad that they can't run the ball and they eventually just have to throw it 35 times a game tell me if this matters to you. I won't even say how I feel about it, but it just seems like I don't want to pick and choose, because I like Metcalf, I don't want to pick and choose who I do these kinds of stats with,

but in the first eight games of the 2020 season, Russell Wilson was throwing for 307 yards per game. He was on pace for over 5,200 yards and 63 touchdown passes in 17 games. Russell Wilson was on fire. That was the 2020 season, first eight games. DK Metcalf averaged 98.5 yards per game with extraordinary quarterback play.

If you remove those games from his career, he's averaging 52 yards per game, I think. If you remove his rookie season and just look at the year and a half since those eight games, he's averaging 58 yards per game. No, 59 yards per game. If you take off his left arm. Sorry.

No, but this is, okay. If you take away those eight games for his career, it is 58 yards per game. The 25 games he's played. I haven't projected for 62 yards per game. Yeah, but the thing is, he had incredible quarterback play for those eight games. Lockett is a problem.

Lockett gets so many targets. So it's not even like he's on this bad passing offense and he's a total target hog. But I struggle with him too, Heath, because, God, he's so good. And he can still score those touchdowns. Jamie, is he hard for you? Is it hard to rank DK Metcalf?

Tremendously hard, yeah. This was one of the guys. Heath answered your question first when you asked us guys to rank. He was the first one that came to mind. You look at the games because this is the small sample size without Russell Wilson last year, and it's so weird because he had the two-touchdown game against Jacksonville in Week 8, but that was on six targets.

He had six catches for 43 yards. The weird game is the New Orleans game when he had the huge touchdown, two catches for 96 yards and the score on five targets. And then he had seven targets, six catches, 58 yards in week six against Pittsburgh. So you're looking at six targets per game if that's kind of the focal point there.

Oh, God. Huh? That would be terrible. Six targets per game if that's kind of the the focal point there god that would be terrible six targets per game right uh two of those he had two six catch games but that's not you know i i think something you can expect that high of a catch rate uh with geno smith it'd be worse in my opinion if it's drew lock because of what we've seen from drew lock and then sure he scored three touchdowns over that but one of those again was a broken tackle by i think it was latimore in the saints game um and then scoring twice against jacksonville so he's got still the upside to you know outperform his quarterback play but it's just so concerning based on the quarterback play and so

for the most part i'm typically out on him in our drafts you know, Dave has been the one that usually reaches for Metcalf, taking him in round four. I think he's starting to get uncomfortable with that. I don't want to speak for him, but it feels like every time he reviews his teams for us, that's kind of the sentiment. He's certainly a round five pick for me at this point. And, you know, I continue to drop him.

You know, he's barely in the top 24 for me right now. Do you think this feels realistic? 1,038 yards, nine touchdowns. Is that too many touchdowns? Yes, I'd go under on the touchdowns. I've got him at 1,058

and seven. That feels closer. I would still probably go under on the touchdowns too. Here's the thing. Jalen Waddell had 1,015 yards. The numbers I gave you originally were Hunter Renfro, but if you think the touchdowns are too high. So we'll go to Waddell.

1,015 yards and six touchdowns. And he was a top-12 receiver, but only in PPR because he had 104 catches. Right. Yeah, Metcalf, he's just not going to be a high catch guy, probably, unless he just changes his profile and runs shorter routes. So where did Waddle finish?

Waddle finished 20th in non-PPR. He only played 16 games, but probably about that per game, too. Okay. Would you rather have Deontay Johnson or DK Metcalf? Deontay Johnson. Deontay. Darnell Mooney or DK Metcalf? Deontay Johnson. Deontay. Darnell Mooney or DK Metcalf?

Mooney. Right now, Metcalf, but that's close. McLaurin or Metcalf? McLaurin. McLaurin. Lockett three rounds later or Metcalf? Lockett three rounds later. Yeah.

Okay. Final guy for Heath is Dallas Goddard. Dallas Goddard. Here are the... His combination of ADOT and catch rate is really, really impressive. He had a 73.7% catch rate last year. Here are the tight ends

who had a higher catch rate than Goddard in 2021. Minimum 50 targets. Uzama, Gerald Everett, Friar Muth, Fant, Kittle, Dalton Schultz, none of them had a higher ADOT than Goddard. So I don't know if there's a stat that combines the two stats, but it's, you know, look, the logic here, if you're not big on these stats, it's easier to catch a high rate of your targets when you're running shorter routes. For a tight end, he does not run short routes. He runs, you know, he's got a pretty high ADOT for a tight end, and he still has one of the highest catch rates.

It's really impressive. And that's two years in a row where he's done that. So what is difficult for you to rank? Is it just like you think he's really good, but you don't love the situation? What's the deal with Goddard here? Well, I mean, part of it's what happened last year after Ertz was gone. He was on a 1,000-yard pace after Ertz left as a tight end, which is incredible. Had 92 yards in the playoffs, but he didn't score hardly any touchdowns. Now, as a rule, I'd just say touchdown

regression is coming. Dallas Goddard's going to be a steal because people are not drafting him high enough. But A.J. Brown got added. And so how that impacts Goddard and how it impacts the offense in terms of how much they throw is really a bit of a mystery. Because if they just go to 520 pass attempts this year and Brown mostly impacts the wide receiver targets, then there's 100% a path for Dallas Goddard

to be the number three tight end in fantasy this year. Ooh, wow. 520 pass attempts, is that what you said? Yeah. And that would be what? Well, if he keeps the same target share and A.J. Brown just impacts the wide receivers as we've talked about.

No, I'm sorry. That's toward the bottom in pass attempts, middle? Oh, yes. Yeah, there were only, I think, two teams below 500 last year. Okay. 520 is 31 pass attempts a game. Do you see that potential for him, Jamie? Top three tight end?

The number three tight end for Goddard? I think it would probably take some injuries for that to happen or just an obscene amount of touchdowns. But, you know, I think it's so funny with Goddard because I'm excited about him to an extent. Like, there's the clear top five. I think Schultz is the bridge to the next group. He's closer to the top five, but I think he's still the bridge guy.

And then you get to the next two, in my opinion, are Goddard and Hawkinson. Those are two that I struggle with of who's the better option of the two. But it feels like we keep making excuses for Goddard. Zach Ertz is still there. Then Zach Ertz is going, oh, they run the ball too much. And, you know, now A.J. Brown is here. How much of that is going to impact? How much better is Devontae Smith going to be?

How much does Jalen Hurts run? But I do think that Sirianni comes from the Frank Reich system. I think that's a system that wants to lean on their tight ends. I think Goddard is clearly going to be in the top three of targets for this team. And I hope this is the year that he can get to that, excuse me, that eight-touchdown range. I think this is the year he can get to hopefully, you know, north of 800 yards.

He's got that potential. He's just got to finally fulfill it. But we can't keep making excuses for him anymore. He's finally got to start to deliver. And right now, would you take Hawkinson or Goddard? Goddard. This is one I go back and forth on every time I even look at my projections. But I think right now I have Goddard higher.

And in a non-PPR or a half-PPR league, would you take Goddard over Schultz? No, I would. Okay. All right, let's take a look at the guys that Jamie finds difficult to rank. Let's start with Brees Hall. Yeah, big mystery here. What are you trying to find out in training camp?

What do you want to see or read about Brees Hall that will give you some more confidence in where you're going to rank him? I mean that he's definitely dominating the workload ahead of Michael Carter, that they're going to throw the ball to him and use his pass-catching skills. Zach Wilson being better, Offensive line staying healthy. There are a lot of questions, you know. And so you noted this. There's typically a rookie running back that has a phenomenal season.

He should be that guy. I hope he's that guy. But it's a matter of not necessarily, you know, ranking him as a safe RB2 option because i don't know if you want to use the word safe but you know when you mentioned that the group that he's around uh him versus zeke him versus etn him versus jacobs and gibson um you know he's in that mix of guys i hope he's better than all of them but you know i still have my concerns. So, yeah, there's some questions that I'm looking to see get answered in training camp for sure, preseason game.

And first off, we just need him to report. Today is the day he's supposed to, and he's officially now a holdout. Mm-hmm. Pre-saw. Get in there, buddy. We have had a top 12 rookie running back in six of the last seven seasons and we've had at least two top 17 rookie running backs in seven straight seasons that's in non-ppr that might that streak might end this year two top 17 rookie running backs in seven straight seasons in non-ppr um but you know, two of the last three years, the rookie running backs have been a bit

disappointing. 2019, Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders were good, but they didn't finish top 12. And last year, you had Najee Harris, who was great, but Javante Williams was number two, and he did not finish in the top 15, and he wasn't top 20 per game.

So I hope that's not a trend, but the rookie running backs are often tremendous values if they can get the workload that they that they need they're just phenomenal values um you know is michael carter a big obstacle for him carter was was pretty good last year is he a big obstacle you think or just kind of a minor hiccup along the way. Hiccup. In between, I think. But they clearly felt they needed an upgrade. You know, this wasn't...

They talked about trading back into the first round to get him. Do you think the Jets have an average offense this year? Yes. But, you know, Wilson's gonna determine that Zach

was not bottom five but below average we might guess okay talked about Chase Edmonds already well let me ask a few more Brees Hall questions real quick would you rather have

Brees Hall or Josh Jacobs Brees Hall Jacobs for now Brees Hall or Gibson all jacobs for now breeze hall or gibson oh i go back and forth but i'm gonna lean gibson for now okay on to jaylen waddle and then we'll finish with marquise brown so i guess you you like waddle better than brown i like brown better than waddle and non-ppr waddle better than brown? I like Brown better than Waddle in non-PPR, Waddle better than Brown in PPR and half PPR.

Oh, gosh, I hate this Jalen Waddle situation. He would be ordinarily one of my favorite breakouts with that kind of rookie season. And we didn't even see his real potential unleashed until kind of later in the year because the guy, he was just catching a lot of short passes and piling up the catches and he wasn't doing what he does best, which is run away from people. He is a speed demon, a big play maker, and they bring in Tyree Kill.

And it's just, you just don't see, like I said, you just don't see these rookie wide receivers who have big rookie years get that kind of added competition. And it happened for Waddle and it happened for Devante Smith. That's really annoying. So I share your frustration, Jamie. I'm sure everybody does. I think the last time we spoke about Jalen Waddle, though, we kind of said that we weren't taking him at his ADP, which was sort of the end of round four, because we felt the upside was limited. Do you feel that way? Totally. And I'm glad that it's the end of round four because in some cases it was in round three still when we were first talking about this.

So, look, he was the guy last year. And he was the guy with Parker missing time. He was the guy with, you know, Gusecki kind of in a weird role. This system, the only thing that really I think can save him, aside from maybe an injury to Tyree Kill, save him from not being, save him from that he can still be

worth drafting in the round four range, is what this system usually has done for players once they get the ball in their hands. Yeah. And so, he's dangerous. I mean, he's, he's got so much, I mean, that's the fun part about this offense. Like I can't wait to see, um, I believe, uh, I was on a radio show yesterday.

They asked me about the over under, and I don't want to misquote it, but I think it was under a thousand yards. Um, I think it could still be a thousand yards here. I think both guys can still be thousand yard receivers. That's asking a lot of Tua, but I think it's still be a thousand yards here. I think both guys can still be thousand yard receivers. That's asking a lot of Tua, but I think it's possible because of the system. But I don't think it's going to be much over a thousand yards. I'm curious, Heath, what you have both Tyreek and Waddle projected for. But I think, you know, when you just look at these two guys in particular, A, there's the chance of an injury to either one,

which I think would make the another guy, the healthier one, top 10. But if both stay healthy, I just think they're going to cannibalize each other enough because I don't think there's going to be enough touchdowns in this offense. And that's the problem. And so Waddle's not getting 140 targets if Tyreek's healthy. He's probably getting closer to 100, maybe 120 tops. And so can he still be as successful with that number with Tua?

Yeah, I think I'm the outlier probably in terms of the projections on these two because I actually right now have Tyreek and Waddell projected for the same number of targets. I do think the other thing that could save Waddell is his relationship and rapport with Tua and the fact that apparently Tyreek was unhappy playing on the Chiefs last year because he wasn't getting the ball enough or wasn't getting the ball in a way that he wants to and that type of

discontent could manifest itself very quickly in this situation if things don't go the way that he wants them to go early in the season so i i think it's underrated the idea that waddle could be better than tyreek this year even if they're both healthy i just came up right now with uh i'm actually going to get a fourth um three no three three teams in recent memory that had two 1,000-yard receivers. We're going to look at the Seahawks in 2020. DK Metcalf, 1,300. Tyler Lockett, 1,054.

Remember, this is all going to be 16 games. Number three on the team was David Moore with 417 yards. How about the Cleveland Browns? I just remember this because I kept bringing it up with Baker Mayfield. Cleveland Browns in 2019. Jarvis Landry had almost 1,200 yards. Odell Beckham was over 1,000 yards. Kareem Hunt was third on the team with 285 yards. And then this one's a little bit more evenly distributed.

The Rams in 2019 had Cooper Cupp and Robert Woods both go over 1,100 yards. And Tyler Higbee had 734 yards. And that was a really good year for golf. They threw for almost 4700 yards, 22 touchdowns. My point here is I do not understand what people are expecting from Micah Sickie and why they like him because if those guys

are going to go over 1000 yards, the number three guy is not going to put up a big number unless two is going to win the MVP. You could use more recent example like the Bengals last year. Jamar Chase had 1,400, Higgins had almost 1,100, and Tyler Boyd had 800. Yeah, that's not very good. Well, if Gusecki has 800 yards,

it's going to be very good. Nah, not really. It's really not. 800 yards in 17 games? That's not even 50 yards a game. It's fine. It's streamable. He'd have to make up for it in touchdowns. But how many people are drafting Gusecki as a number one tenant? I feel like he is... I don't know. I feel like he's in that discussion

at the end. I didn't want to make this about Gusecki. Well, once you get past the top ten guys, everybody's kind of in the discussion, right? I don't even think he should be. Personally, but I guess it's just so bad at that point. He's tight end 11 in Fantasy Pros PPR ADP.

Ahead of Friar Muth. Ahead of Cole Komet. Maybe this is a topic for another show, but maybe this is why you don't want to wait that long for tight end. That's just the way I see it. I like great or late. That's the thing. Siki is not part of the late strategy for me. I like great or late. But that's the thing.

Gasicki is not part of the late strategy for me. Is he for you? Or do you guys have him? Yeah. He absolutely is. How? If both wide receivers are going over 1,000 yards and Chase Edmonds is involved in the passing,

what is left for Gasicki? How does he pull it off? I mean, again, it's more the player and the situation. So... You talk about excuses. I mean, we make excuses for Gasicki all the time. What has he done? But that's the reason why, for me, he's not tight end 11,

and the reason why I would only take him if he's late. You have him 12th, Dave 17th, Heath 15th. But you do have Komet ahead of him at 10 yeah i mean it's like irv smith is behind justin jefferson and adam theolin and maybe kj osborne and and zach ertz after six weeks is probably behind deandre hopkins and marquise brown gerald everett's behind mike williams Ken Allen. Pat Fryer moves behind Deontay Johnson and Chase Claypool and Najee Harris. That's why I like Kemet and Knox. Yeah? Knox is behind like four guys.

What are you talking about? Knox is not behind. Knox is behind like six guys. Knox is not. That's the thing. You don't know that. He has the potential to be ahead. He has the potential for more targets than you guys give him credit for.

You don't know that he's going to be that low. Based on what, the 50 that he had last year? They had Cole Beasley and they had Emmanuel Sanders. What do they have now? And now they have Jamison Crowder and Khalil Herbert. Come on now, Jamison Crowder. Khalil Herbert. Khalil Shakir.

I mean, I obviously like Kemet better. What if O.J. Howard's better than Dawson Knox? The last report we got on O.J. Howard was not good at all. All right, sorry for the detour there. There's questions on all those guys. Absolutely, 100%. Who you should really like is Evan Ingram. Oh, please.

He could be first on his team in targets. Literally might be. Marquise Brown, Jamie. Marquise Brown is the last guy you want to talk about. So, all right, what's the difficulty here? I mean, it feels like we're ranking a six-game season for Marquise Brown. Yeah.

It's so fascinating because he could be better than DeAndre Hopkins and, you know, certainly be worth ranking as a top 20 receiver and drafting him that high. But this there's that situation looming when DeAndre Hopkins comes back. He just pointed it out. You know, Zachary is still there. Cliff Kingsbury keeps talking a lot about Rondell Moore and his role. We don't even say A.J. Green's name, but he's still on the team. They throw to James Conner. You know, there's a lot of mouths to feed here.

And so, yes, that six games could be amazing for what Marquise Brown gives you. But what the hell is going to happen in week seven and beyond? That's the majority of the season there. So, you know, I mean, Hopkins was a shell of himself last year, battled through injuries, and is missing six games. But if he's anything close to the DeAndre Hopkins we know, man, it's going to be tough for Marquise Brown to be fantastic from week seven on.

It is tough. So Mooney or Marquise Brown? Right now it's Brown, but i struggle with it i have mooney higher how about alan robinson or marquise brown robinson brown for me so you like marquise brown more than jamie does he i have him 25th i think think. 24th or 25th, maybe 23rd. Borderline number two. I think he could be a top 12 wide receiver the first six weeks of the season and then maybe a number three the rest of the way.

So how do you rank that? I mean, that's basically like, you know what it feels like it could be? Like Mike Williams last year. Yeah, well, don't get Heath started on Mike Williams. That's going to be a bigger tangent than mike is sick yeah well dave is really the high guy on uh be awesome last year it would be for four weeks yeah or five be awesome for the last eight as well

no dave has marquise brown 17th in his PPR. Yeah, I can't do that. Yeah, he really likes Marquise Brown. Well, you remember, what was the draft that we did? Was it last week or the last live one I did with you? Where Dave took Marquise Brown like in round three and he was like, I'm doing it. Yeah, and then he regretted it. And then like two rounds later, he was like, why did I do that?

I should, I have to correct myself. You know who you should pair up is Marquise Brown and Amari Cooper. You can start Marquise Brown the firstari Cooper you can start Marquise Brown the first six games and then start Amari Cooper after that maybe

are you assuming Watson back maybe yeah I have to correct myself on Jalen Waddle's ADP I said end of round four it's more on Fantasy Pros it's 41

so that's mid round four and on NFC in the last almost three weeks it's 33rd 33rd or 34th. I don't get it. I think some of those are probably dynasty drafts, but I've got him 43rd.

So I'm there with fantasy pros, slightly behind, I guess. Okay. Okay, that's going to do it for today's show. We'll read your emails later this week. We'll have a mailbag tomorrow. Jacob Gibbs coming on for some advanced stats. Remember to tune in at 1 p.m. Eastern for our live stream, our non-PBR 12-team

draft. And for Jamie and Heath, I'm Adam. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.