Fantasy Football Today - The Five Biggest Mysteries in Fantasy Football for 2024! (04/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 8, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts It's a Mysterious Monday on Fantasy Football Today! We reveal our five biggest mysteries, but first we give a little love to Bryce Young (3:45) and go through the news and notes (8:15) ... Our first mystery: How much can we trust older quarterbacks coming off achilles tears (12:10)? We're drafting Drake London and Garrett Wilson early because we expect good QB play, but are we assuming too much? Then we talk about the NFL Draft with our next two mysteries: Can we get a Top 12 rookie wide receiver (18:30)? Can we get multiple Top 12 rookie running backs (29:10)? ... Mystery #4: Will the QB position look like it did in 2023, or was last season an anomaly (37:40)? And finally, can the Cowboys passing game pick up where it left off (46:40)? ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? Can I know I can? It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races! And he stays on his feet! This is gonna go the distance!

Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to a mysterious edition of Fantasy Football Day. Mysterious Monday. The five most gripping mysteries in fantasy football for 2024. What can we expect from the Cowboys? What can we expect from the rookies? Why was there an earthquake in New Jersey on Friday? What is an eclipse?

What is a solar eclipse anyway? All these mysteries to be solved today. What's up, guys? How was your... Isn't that amazing? I had an earthquake on Friday. Can you believe it? How was your day?

Did you feel it? Yes. Yes, we felt it. I was... Was this your first experience with an earthquake? Yes, it was. Would you be able to quickly tell us what the experience was like for those of us who have never experienced an earthquake?

Yeah, I was downstairs about to get on the exercise bike because I'm getting in shape. And my wife was in the kitchen and she goes, she says, Adam, why is the house shaking? And I was like, well, I thought it was the boiler turning on or something like that. And then it kept shaking. I was like, what is that, a truck passing by? It wasn't that bad for me. I think if you're higher up, it's worse. So it was just weird.

And then after about 10 seconds, she was like, I think we just had an earthquake. Yeah, we probably did. So really, not much of a story to tell for me. It was just weird. I don't know what to say it was like, but it was just, it was like a big truck passing by, but going really slowly.

Like a train passing by. I don't know. Anyway, earthquakes, eclipses, cowboys running backs, all these crazy things we'll be talking about. A few things. Did you know that Dak Prescott's

been a top four quarterback per game in three of the last five seasons? About that. Yes. Yep. Did you know that of the last five seasons. About that. Yes. Yep. Did you know that in the last nine seasons, we've only had six rookie wide receivers finish top 12? Six rookie wide receivers in the last nine seasons finish top 12.

Whoa. Yeah. That sounds really good. And only four of them actually finish top 12 in both non-PPR and full PPR. So two thirds of the past nine seasons, there's been a rookie finish as a top 12 wide receiver. I don't know if you can say it like that. There could be a couple of seasons where there were multiple rookie wide receivers. No. Oh yes, actually. That was in that one season where Jalen Waddle was 21st in non-PPR, but 12th in full PPR, and Jamar Chase was top 12.

Here are the six rookie receivers who have finished as top 12 guys in the last nine years. Michael Thomas, A.J. Brown in non-PPR only. He was 21st in full PPR. Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Jalen Waddell, and Puka Nakua. So I would say really the four who had great seasons were Michael Thomas, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, and Puka Nakua.

Two of them were not taken in the first round. Hey, Jamie, what's up? Hey. Welcome in. And did you know we've had at least one rookie running back finish top 12 overall in seven of the last nine seasons? And at least two rookie running backs have finished top 12 in six of the last nine seasons, and at least two rookie running backs have finished top 12 in six of the last nine seasons. It is not hard necessarily to get top 12 seasons

from rookie running backs. All right, so these are some of the things we'll be talking about today. Also, what to expect from quarterbacks coming off of torn Achilles. I want to get your take on this stat. Not related to mysteries at all, but Bryce Young had a better passer rating as a rookie than Trevor Lawrence did.

Wow. Heath, wow. I don't think that's like you've been doing shows with me for like four years. That should not be surprising. Like every two months I get tagged in a tweet talking about how much better Gardner Minshew stats and his first 50 starts are than Trevor Lawrence's. Trevor Lawrence was awful as a rookie. It was an awful situation. It wasn't maybe necessarily all his fault,

but remember we just threw, which rookie season are you talking about? The urban Meyer. Cause the urban Meyer one didn't count. We just gave him another rookie season. Wow. Yeah. He,

look, he obviously had a much better second year. I'm just wondering, you know, we talk about all these young players all the time. We pretty much, he obviously had a much better second year. I'm just wondering. We talk about all these young players all the time. We pretty much, Jamie, we never give Bryce Young a chance. He had such a bad rookie season, and he only averaged 180 passing yards per game. Lawrence averaged 214.2 passing yards per game.

Yards per attempt were kind of similar. Passer rating, like I said, a little bit better for Young because he only threw 10 interceptions. But I know this isn't related to today's topic, but just a thought. passer rating, like I said, a little bit better for Young because he only threw 10 interceptions. But, you know, I know this isn't related to today's topic, but just a thought. I mean, should we be giving a chance here? New coordinator, I mean, new coach, right?

And new weapon in Deontay Johnson. Do we have a sleeper here in Bryce Young? I mean, there's certainly a case to be made for him. You know, he looked awful last year, but as you said, the situation was awful. It's a very fair comparison for what he said in terms of giving Trevor Lawrence a pass because the situation was awful.

Bryce Young should hopefully get the same thing and maybe perform better than Trevor Lawrence did in his second season. Clearly, the prospect is there. He wasn't the number one overall pick for nothing. You could debate maybe he was drafted too soon. Obviously, looking at C.J. Stroud and what he was able to accomplish. And, you know, that's always going to be something that probably hangs over Bryce Young's head. But in terms of what they are trying to do for him this offseason, they brought in a guy that was very good in Seattle for Geno Smith.

That was very good in Tampa Bay for Baker Mayfield. That will hopefully be very good for Bryce Young as well. Like you said, Deontay Johnson's a fantastic addition for a very cheap cost and hopefully they're not done. You know, Adam Thielen can still play at his age, you know, forget about his fantasy value. He can still provide value for a young receiver as we saw. And so they're giving him an upgraded receiving core. And so hopefully that they continue to build on that as well. But, um, you know, can he overcome his size? That's always going to be the knock on him. And so hopefully that's the case. So I'm encouraged.

Sleeper, super flex, 2QB, yes. He's the type of guy that you want to bank on and hope that he hits. 1QB leagues, it's going to be more of a waiver wire addition if he gets off to a good start, and hopefully that's the case. Two things. Number one, I'm not sure if either of you brought up the offensive line being upgraded, but that's obviously a huge factor. The offensive line was a problem for Carolina last year.

Getting him on the move is going to be helpful as well. Why not take advantage of his mobility a little bit more, get the ball out of his hand a little bit quicker? Those are both staples that Canales used to his advantage, like Jamie said, in Seattle with Geno Smith and then in Tampa Bay with Baker Mayfield. I think that it's a good move to get canalis to help out price young. The receivers all up to the other thing I wanted to say is last year, Russell Wilson had a higher quarterback rating over the course of the season.

Then Josh Allen, Jalen hurts, Patrick, my homes. I don't, I don't know. I don't know if that stat does anything to really help us out here in fantasy. No QB rating is so much of QB rating is touchdown interception ratio. But it's just as a reminder that Trevor Lawrence had a terrible rookie season. And Andrew Luck had a terrible rookie season if you look at passer rating. And they can go back even further. A lot of Peyton Manning.

Peyton Manning. Troy Aikman, right? So, you know, his career's not over. Obviously, Josh Allen struggled as well. FFT Dynasty is kicking butt right now. I probably could have said the A word there. FFT Dynasty has been great and helping me get ready for the NFL draft

and can help you get ready for the NFL draft. Check out Fantasy Football Today Dynasty anywhere you listen to this podcast. I know Emery Hunt's going on the show with Heath this week. Emory Hunt's also coming on our show, so we're transitioning a little bit more now to NFL Draft coverage. Our next two episodes on this podcast

are going to be quarterbacks and wide receiver previews with some people who are really deep into it and have scouted all of these guys. So we're going to get everybody ready for it. But they're already doing that on Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. So please check that podcast out. They're crushing it. News and notes. Rasheed Rice was driving a car that they confirmed. He was driving the car that started a multi-car accident. Dave, should we be worried about a suspension at this point for Rishi Rice? It's possible. I wouldn't factor it into your draft preparations yet, but as we get closer to the season, as things unfold in the courts, maybe.

CeeDee Lamb, as the Cowboys get ready for voluntary workouts next week, CeeDee Lamb could be a holdout. I don't think that's going to really change anyone next week. CeeDee Lamb could be a holdout. I don't think that's going to really change anyone's opinion on CeeDee Lamb. He'd have to miss part of training camp for us to start to get worried. Deshaun Watson recovering from the arm injury. He said he'll be ready for week one.

The Texans are allowing Stefan Diggs to become a free agent after this season. What did he have? That's three years left on his deal. Something like that. Stefan Diggs to become a free agent after this season. What did he have? Three years left on his deal? Something like that. And so they basically turned this into a contract year where he has like a monster number. So he's motivated for sure.

You don't have to worry as much about him being maybe a malcontent. You know, he fell out of favor in Minnesota, clearly fell out of favor in Buffalo. I don't think it changes anything as far as when we'll draft him. I still don't like him best among the group or group of Texans receivers, but I still have him as a number two receiver at minimum. I think it makes sense. Like the Texans get that, like Dave said, that motivation that he's got nothing guaranteed after this year. And the Bills wouldn't let Stefan Diggs negotiate a deal with the Chiefs. So he gets out of this deal after one year so he can go where guaranteed after this year. And the Bills wouldn't let Stephon Diggs

negotiate a deal with the Chiefs. So he gets out of this deal after one year so he can go where he wants to go. There you go. All right. Darren Waller has not decided yet on whether or not he's going to retire. So we're keeping an eye on Darren Waller. Some defensive and other offensive line notes here.

We'll just go through real quick. The Giants signed linebacker Isaiah Simmons, re-signing him to a one-year deal. The Bills signed offensive tackle Lyle Collins to a one-year deal. Looking like a backup offensive tackle right now. He does have some experience playing guard. Panthers re-signed defensive tackle Derek Brown to a four-year huge deal, nearly $100 million deal, $63 million guaranteed for Derek Brown. Patriots re-signing Kyle Duggar, giving him a four-year extension that could be worth up to 66 million dollars he's a great safety for the Patriots the Eagles signing left tackle Jordan Maialata to a three-year 66 million dollar

extension with 48 million dollars guaranteed the Chiefs re-signing defensive end Mike Dana to a three-year deal and the Ravens re-signing linebacker Kyle Van Noy. We've got five big mysteries to get to, and we will get to them right after this quick break on Fantasy Football today. It's hockey season, and you can get anything you need delivered with Uber Eats. Well, almost, almost anything. So no, you can't get an ice rink on Uber Eats. But iced tea, ice cream, or just plain old ice?

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Welcome back, everybody. Okay, let's get into the meat of the show here and our five big mysteries. Mystery number one, can we trust quarterbacks, older quarterbacks coming off torn Achilles? Jamie, we don't really have a lot of history to help us out here. It's not like a running back tearing an ACL or something like that. But okay, whatever. You invest in Rodgers or Cousins. That's not really a huge deal. There could be late round picks.

You're using a second round pick on Garrett Wilson. You're using maybe a third round pick. Who knows? Could be anywhere from the second to the fourth on Drake London, mid round pick on Kyle Pitts. How much, how worried are you, I guess, about putting that much faith in aging quarterbacks coming off torn Achilles, Jamie? I mean, I think in the case of these two guys, you have, you know, a hall of famer in Aaron Rodgers and a lot of time for him to get healthy. And the fact that he was pushing to come back in December should make you feel somewhat confident that he's going to be back to what he was pre-injury, whatever you think of him,

end of his Green Bay tenure to whatever you saw in training camp and hard knocks. And there was a lot of clearly footage of what we were hoping to get, which is why we thought Garrett Wilson was going to be a breakout candidate last year and why we feel the same way about it this year. In terms of cousins, a little bit later injury week eight is when he suffered his, you know, torn Achilles, uh, switching teams. So, you know, there's a little bit of a change there and obviously getting a rapport with a new receiving core, but you know, you're banking on these guys being

talented, receiving threats. I mean, in terms of the three guys you mentioned, Garrett Wilson, first round pick Drake, London, first round pick Kyle Pitts, first round pick top five overall pick, you know, and so considering the whatever it was last year, but you know, 17 to 21 PPR points per game was basically where he was living in his rookie campaign with Mike White and Joe Flacco and those guys. And, and then to see, you know, what Drake London hasn't been able to accomplish and what pits even did with an older Matt Ryan and his rookie campaign. You know, I mean, I'll take my chances with these guys being 75% of what they used to be. 65% of what they used to be 50% of what they used to be is better than anything these guys have had before.

So I'll, I'm fine with the receiving options, you know, banking on the quarterbacks is a different story to hopefully get them back to their level of play, but for what they should be able to do, just, you know,

I mean, we, we saw it even, you know, when Peyton Manning was at the end of his run. You know, it was miserable to watch him play quarterback that year. They won a Super Bowl because their defense. But his mind was still better than a lot of what was behind him.

You know, and just the fact that these guys, what they see, what the defenses are doing, they're just going to, you know, find ways, I think, to help these guys get open. And the quarterbacks, I mean, the receivers will understand, maybe if there is any limitations, how to make sure that they're able to get the job done. So, yeah, I'm fine with the receivers. Receiving options, excuse me. Okay. You know, Demarius Thomas had a 1,300-yard season that year. That's 2015, last year, Peyton Manning.

And that wasn't Achilles, obviously. That was Peyton's shoulder, whatever was going on there. Neck. Neck, right. Yeah, you can remember. But he only had six touchdowns, and that's, you know, the team only threw 19 touchdowns that year for what it's worth. But you had two.

You had Demarius Thomas with 105 catches and 1,300 yards, and you had Emmanuel Sanders with 76 catches for 1,135 yards. They both had six touchdowns. All right, anyone else want to weigh in on this? You don't have to. I think you're right to put it in the mystery. It is something that we're not going to probably even in training camp know for sure.

We're just going to have to see what these guys play like coming off the layoff and at this age. Dave, let me ask a different question and then we'll end it on this. The last time we saw Kirk cousins, he was having one of the best seasons of his career. The last time we saw Aaron Rogers, not counting four snaps in 2023,

he had arguably the worst season of his career. He wasn't even a top 24 per game quarterback. So is that, does that change things for you? No, I think Rogers can still play play well even at his age i i'm giving him credit for being in shape and jamie talked about how he was practicing in december after tearing the achilles in september so i i think you've got to give him the benefit

of the doubt and the same thing with kirk cousins who was playing so well like you mentioned a lot of it had to do with the offense he was in. He totally understood it all had great receivers. You could say he's going to be in about the same type of situation in Atlanta. You've got to figure that the Falcons will run an offense that Kirk Cousins is going to know really well. Uh, it should be that I, I, I, I don't really worry too much about them. And when I think about drafting them in fantasy in a one quarterback league, I mean, you're, you're getting them late.

No, one's taking these guys in round six or round seven. It's going to be later than that. And you could always take a second quarterback. Would become a problem is in super flex leagues. Yeah. Cause you are spend. Uh,

what do you guys think? Late second, third, somewhere in that range. So third, third for cousins in that range? Third. Third for Cousins. For Rodgers. You think Cousins can slip into round two maybe?

I don't know if he will. But that's a pricey investment. And it might mean that you want to go and spend another one of your first five picks on another quarterback in case those guys do trail off a little bit. So I'd worry about it in those formats a little bit more than I would in a 1QB league. In a 1QB league, I'm taking them late. I'll find another quarterback either in the draft or off the waiver wire if things do not go right for those two.

I think in the case of Rodgers, you've seen significant upgrades in the Jets' offensive line. The Falcons' offensive line has sort of been fairly solidified over the last couple of years, so I think it's safe. To Dave's point about the system, Zach Robinson comes from Sean McVay, Kevin O'Connell, same thing. So there's going to be a lot of the same concepts. And look, both of these guys, I would assume by the time the Jets

get through the draft, there's going to be another receiver added. Obviously, the Falcons have rebuilt their receiving core by the additions that they made, whether you like them or not. There's good situations for both these quarterbacks coming back to. Let's go to mystery number two. How high will the rookie wide receivers get drafted? And as I mentioned, six rookie wide receivers in the last nine years have finished top 12 in one format. Four of them have finished top 12 in both non-PPR and full PPR, and they

were Michael Thomas, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, and Puka Nakua. There will be a lot of excitement about probably the top three. Maybe not all three, depending on where they go, but Harrison, neighbors, Odunze and Heath. What do you think right now? Obviously we are missing a big piece of the puzzle, obviously where they're going to go, but how high do you think we'll see these rookie wide receivers get drafted in fantasy drafts? I think we will see Marvin Harrison jr. In round three. I think there's a good chance that Malik Neighbors in the right situation

joins him in round three. And I would guess we'll see Roma Dunze assuming he's a New York Giant in like round five. But if he gets a better, he might sneak in at round four if he gets a perfect situation.

But I think we kind of talked about it, I think it was last week, how you get past those first nine or 10 or 11 wide receivers, and it's kind of pick your own adventure in round three. And there's definitely going to be a guy or two who say, well, I want to bet on the young guy over Mike Evans,

or I want to bet on the young guy over Stephon or whoever else you're considering in that range. So I'd say round three. How many perfect situations or even good situations are there for these rookie receivers to fall into Harrison to the Cardinals with Kyler? Well, I'm thinking more about teams, Heath.

I'm not thinking about Harrison to the Cardinals. I'm with you all the way. I think almost any of these receivers in Arizona would be awesome. I'm looking for eight targets a game. If I'm taking one of these rookie wide receivers with a top 50 pick, I'm hoping for eight targets a game from them. Where are those teams? How many of them are out there?

All right. I'm not disagreeing with you guys, but just to put this in perspective, this was the ADP last year on our site of the rookie wide receivers. All of these rookie wide receivers, by the way, were not taken with a top 19 pick in the NFL draft. Yeah, I'm just giving you perspective.

I hear you. I'm just saying these aren't... Jordan Addison was a pick 86 overall. 86? Zay Flowers was 92. This is ADP. 86.4, 95.5, but give me the average. 92.

Jackson Smith, the jig, but 106. Quentin Johnston, 95.5, but give me the average. 92. Jackson Smith, the jig, but 106. Quentin Johnston, 125. Can we look at 2022? I'll try and find it. Yeah, while you pull 2022 up, I will just say that when I had Matt Waldman on last week, and I don't give away too much of what's in his RSP, but when we talked about,

he ranks the wide receivers grouped in with the last three classes, and the top five wide receivers in those rankings were from this class. So he had all three of the guys we're talking about, Harris and Mabers, better than anybody in the last three classes. I think when we're at this stage of the calendar, oh my God, these guys are going to be drafted so high. And then one goes to the Patriots. One goes to the giants,

the Cardinals trade down, you know, and then it's all of a sudden, Oh, it's not as attractive. And we're not talking about three, four and five. We're talking about five,

six and seven in terms of their ADP. So, um, yeah, I'll tell you 2022. I got it right here if you want. Okay. Well,

what got, yeah, I'll see if it matches up because I'm looking at Fantasy Football Calculator. Yeah, same. 2022, I got to remember the rookies. Drake London was wide receiver 41. He was in round nine. Chris Olave was in round 10.

And I don't even see Garrett Wilson on here. Not even in the top 58. Are you looking at PPR? I see something different. Oh, I might be looking at non-ppr um yeah i have non-ppr i have ppr i have ppr but those guys you know that like that we kept saying that year man we like these receivers but they went to such bad situations so all right let's go back to dave's question right how many how many situations of a combination of receiver and team get a rookie wide receiver drafted at least in the top 36?

So Harrison to the Cardinals. What else? Any of the receivers to the Cardinals. These top three, you know their names. I agree with what Waldman was saying. These guys are awesome. They can all be number one receivers for whichever team they go to. but I'm looking for the opportunities to go along with it. Arizona's there. I'm going to put the chargers in there. I know we're all nervous about just how much they're

going to throw. I think they're going to end up throwing a little bit more than we think. So I think they belong in there. And then I don't know if I love the Patriots, but they're going to get a rookie quarterback. They're going to have to be in a lot of competitive games, or at least I expect them to be. So maybe there's a receiver that can get to the game there. No, that's the problem. What's wrong? It's hard for them to get the quarterback and the receiver based on what they're drafted. Well, okay.

So what if they take the receiver first and they end up with Penix in round two? Maybe that's. Penix isn't making it to round two. But they trade back into the first round. Sure. They could do it. They could do that. I don't know if Penix will be there at the bottom of round one maybe he's there i don't know where he's going i don't think there's much consensus on that there's two other teams that need a wide receiver that need an alpha wide receiver

and but they're gonna have to trade up they're gonna give up a lot to get them buffalo and jacksonville if they get one of those guys, I'm drooling all over the place. All everywhere. Disgusting 48-year-old drool everywhere. Well, okay. So what if Buffalo gets like A.D. Mitchell or something? No. Well, you said, Matt Wallman said that

he had eight wide receivers ranked ahead of anyone from last year. I think it was five. That's what I said. But let's say Xavier Worthy instead of A.D. Mitchell, and then the conversation gets more interesting. Okay, fine. Whoever it is. Is there a non-top three wide receiver that goes to Buffalo?

No. Well, we're ruling out Brian Thomas. I'm not the biggest Brian Thomas fan either, but we're ruling him out immediately. We're talking about getting to a round three pick. Jamie was just recounting how rare that is. It has to be the combination of a top 10 pick and an elite prospect and a good landing spot,

which is why there's probably only two of them. It's probably whoever, if one of them goes to the Chargers or if one of those good teams trades up, but whoever goes to Arizona and whoever else lands on a good team with top 10 to 12 draft capital. Dare I say, and I don't know,

this is just a guess, because I don't know what the sample size was, maybe like one or two games. If Jordan Addison had played last year with Kirk Cousins and without Justin Jefferson, I think, I think there's a good chance he would have been a top 12 wide receiver, just like Justin Jefferson did when he played,

you know, as a rookie and nobody really took him seriously, but he still had feeling on the team. So if you get a situation where the fourth or fifth wide receiver off the board late in round one goes to the Buffalo bills. No, I don't think the ADP will be in the third round, but I wouldn't be surprised at all.

If that player gave you top 12 production. But the thing, the thing about Buffalo, for example, is they're probably taking two or three wide receivers in this draft. I mean, like that's the position, the group they have to rebuild the most.

And they've already sort of showed you what made them successful during this run was building around Josh Allen. And right now they've stripped everything away from Josh Allen, you know? So this is what their, their plan is. I three is probably a stretch, but I would, I would be very surprised that there's not two of them. This draft is so deep. The, the, the draft class for wide receivers is so deep. So the, the thing that's going to be interesting more so I think than the top three guys. And again, it's hard to say who's the next tank Dell, who's the next Puka Nakua, but it's which team that has a very successful offense and a good to competent to great quarterback selects one of these guys on day two or day three, and they end up just in the right

situation. You know, again, it's hard to peg that and you're not going to bank on that because again, the top guys are going to go early for a reason, but those are the ones that are going to be very interesting from the, the, the high powered offensive and good quarterback perspective, at least for me, you know, so, um, it's not necessarily the ones that are only first round picks because I think there's going to be some teams that just load up at depth at this position, like Chicago at nine. Would it surprise you for Dunsey falls there that,

that they take out? No, I hate that. Huh? I would hate that. We would hate that. You would hate that. But I mean,

you know, he's from a dynasty perspective and must love that because now you're talking about Caleb Williams with him when Keenan Allen's 33, probably gone, and DJ Moore starting to head to that point in his career where, okay, he maybe starts to fade a little bit. Like, that's perfect. Well, yeah, from a dynasty standpoint,

but yeah, we'll save that for the Tuesday-Friday shows, the AFFD dynasty. But we don't want one of these top three guys for the sake, for 2024's sake. We don't want one of them to go. I don't think we want anyone to go to the bear. You don't want to see a JSN situation. You don't want to see a top tier prospect go to a crowded receiving core.

And then he gets, you know, maybe buried for a couple of years. And then who knows what he ever becomes. But look, you know, we've, we've obviously seen some high profile guys go to where there could be a number one guy. I mean, I remember Dave was over the moon, understandably so for Jalen Rager, because he was going to be the number one guy in Minnesota. It's true. Or not Minnesota, Philadelphia.

Philadelphia. And I liked his talent coming out of TCU. And that ended up being because he just wasn't that guy. But he ended up in a good spot. Last thing here. For Traylon Burks. Same thing. Jordan Addison in three games with Cousins and with Jefferson, I think

not playing. Yeah. I think he with Jefferson, I think, not playing. Yeah, I think he missed Chicago, San Francisco, and Green Bay. Maybe he got hurt in the Chicago game. Anyway, his 17-game pace, three games, okay, but 96 catches, 1,320 yards, 23 touchdowns. Right. It was like 21.5 PPR points per game. Yeah, so just keep that in mind that sometimes the situation like for example if odunze goes to the bears and get and give me a

why not not ad mitchell who did you say who's the other guy you said heath xavier worthy okay or brian thomas yeah either one. Yeah. For some reason, I feel like Thomas isn't going to make it that deep. But yeah, if any of them go to the Bills and Odunze goes to the Bears, then you're taking the guy on the Bills over Odunze, right? Like in a second, in a redraft league. Yes. Yeah. All right.

Next mystery. Number three. Will the quarter... You know what? Why don't we stay on the rookies? I'm going to change the order here. Will a rookie running back finish top 12? Which is pretty common.

Jamie, what's the scenario of... Give me two rookie running backs because we've had two top 12 rookie running backs in six of the last nine seasons. That's not per game. It's like Bijan wasn't per game, but overall he was. Gibbs was.

Two rookie running backs have finished top 12 in six of the last nine seasons, but not a great running back class, but some interesting opportunities. Jamie, what do you think? What do you think? Good chance of at least one, maybe two happening? I mean, Cowboys draft guy they like,

whoever that may be of the top three or four guys, and starts from day one. I mean, it's a pretty easy path to success there. Chargers draft guy and don't use Gus Edwards. I mean, that's an easy path to success there. Yeah, I mean, it's certainly doable. This is always the funny thing about draft classes and you know we're gonna spend a lot of time this week talking about it the running back class looks terrible right there there isn't a stud on paper i mean jaylen wright might be a superstar with his athleticism it's true um

blake quorum seems as nfl ready as a running back that we have. He just doesn't blow you away with a lot of the things that he does, but was in a very NFL-style offense. That 4.38 at Michigan is eight-man boxes, and we need two yards. He's getting three. So there's some interesting situations here that, you know, uh, the kid from Texas, if his knee is right, man, he could be, he could be great. You know? So there, there's a lot to like about these players. They're just like you said, you know, there, there's not a superstar

on paper, but how much of that is, and this is, you know, taking clearly a very broad view of, I mean, you know, Dave, your son played basketball. Heath, your son plays basketball. My kids are a little younger. They're playing multiple sports. If they were football players, would any of us say go play running back? You know, I mean, kids these days are seeing what it is. You know, you want to play seven on seven in middle school and high school. They're not letting you play running back. They're playing wide receiver or quarterback,

you know, if you're, if you're an athlete. So, you know, we may see this moving forward quite a bit and the NFL sort of tipped his hand a little bit as well. You know, again, not to go out on a tangent. We don't usually see free agent running backs at this age get signed. They know what this class is. They know that it's not very prominent in terms of what the talent is, but man, Dallas gets their hands on somebody they they they've clearly you know jerry's gone all in the other way um he's gone all out and for what the chargers want to do and you know there's there's i'm sure a team that you know the giants for example you know i mean are they sold on devon singletary i've got a list of of teams that i that I think... I think... You tell me.

Chargers, Cowboys, easy, right? Yes. Giants. Panthers. Yep. Yeah. Raiders. Yep.

I think so. Yeah. I think that could be a big one. The next three are more dark horses for me. Cardinals. Minnesota. Minnesota, they signed Jones. I can't see a guy in. He's 29, though. He's not an answer. They need to draft

somebody to be their long-term guy. Are you going to get a top 12 guy? Oh, you're talking about just to get a top 12 guy. Yeah, just get a top 12 guy. So, Chargers, Cowboys, Giants, Panthers, Raiders. I said that one yet? Yeah. If we're going that route, I would say no on the Raiders no on the

Panthers I'd probably say no on the Giants same reason as the Panthers if the Giants get somebody that blows them away in training camp they need all the help that they can get Cardinals probably not right they still have enough faith in Connor I would think yeah but I

mean I mean any of these situations there could be an injury. Yes. Minnesota, yes. Raiders, yes. Panthers, yes. Sure. The 49ers could draft somebody in round six and McCaffrey gets hurt.

Now we've got... I saw... Hey, hold on one second. I'm not going the injury route. I'm going the... They're going to come in and win the job route. River plates, gotcha.

Yeah. I did see something funny, though. I think it was Dave Lombardi who covers the 49ers tweet when they signed the kid from the Packers. And it was the 49ers depth start. It was McCaffrey, Mitchell,

whoever they drafted in the third round, Mason, not another. Two other teams. You think a guy could come in and be the guy? First one, I think, is a a long shot but Washington and Tampa Bay no and no no way in Washington you're gonna need jump two guys well I don't know how I mean like they've got two guys but do they have

one good player I I don't know the answer to that. Yeah, I mean, come on. Austin Eckler has gone a little too far. And really, I don't think Brian Robinson would rank that bad in this class of running backs. Yes. I don't know. And then Tampa Bay, like, you know, Rashad White's been a great pass catcher.

I'll give him that. He has done very little as a rusher. So I'd be curious to see what happened if they drafted a really good guy that I think could beat him out, you know? All right. All right, we'll take a break, and we'll come back. We'll talk about the quarterback position and the Dallas Cowboys after this on FFT.

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That's why Bumble is changing how you start conversations. You can now make the first move or not. With opening moves, you simply choose a question to be automatically sent to your matches. Then sit back and let your matches start the chat. Download Bumble and try it for yourself. I have a couple of pop culture things I'd like to share with everyone later in the show, at the end of the show, if you're interested in some of my pop culture takes. One that I had yesterday that I don't really see how you could dispute is that the scoring system in the tournament of the Karate Kid makes absolutely no sense. There's just no

reason why Daniel should have won. He got punched in the face, and they didn't give Johnny the point. And then moments later, he kicks Johnny in the face, and he wins the whole thing. It doesn't make any sense. It's ridiculous. Speaking of tournaments, how are you guys doing in the bracket? I have not looked since UNC lost. I have not looked.

But we could do an update here and see who's going to win it. Go ahead, JB. What were you saying? No, I think it's because he used a closed fist. I think he's supposed to use open-handed contact. Okay. I'm in 808th place. 808th?

Yeah, that's not good. That's not good. Dave? Oh, I assume I'm in last. Okay. Looks like CeCe Barth is winning with 128 points, and if UConn wins, that will be the winner. And Cody Prokorski is in second with Purdue winning.

So that will be the Purdue winner. That's right. I'm in 130th. Not bad. Not bad. I have no idea. Okay. Maybe Schaefer could find it for us.

I'd love to know if Dave is in last place. Yeah, I have. Unless somebody. No, you're in next to last. And didn't make any picks. That's the last. Gosh. You are in next to last. Somebody is worse than you. I've watched a lot of college basketball and BYU is tsunami 16.

I really did. Oh, there's Dave. No, Dave's in Oh, there's Oh, yeah. Next to last. Yeah. Chris Potts. Wow. That's in. Oh, there's. Oh, yeah. Next to last. Yeah. Chris Potts. Wow. That's terrible, Chris.

Twenty eight points. OK. All right. That guy clearly has not watched any college basketball. Let's get back to the show. Will the quarterback position look like it did in twenty twenty three or was last season an anomaly? And twenty twenty three did not really have a truly elite quarterback. Josh Allen averaged 26.2 fantasy points per game

and six points for passing touchdown leagues. And that was the lowest for QB1 per game since 2009. And it did seem deeper last year as well. Heath, what do you think? Will the quarterback position look like it did in 2023? Or was last season an anomaly? First off, there's a lot of questions about why I look like this on the camera.

And I thought I was doing the best solar eclipse joke of the day, but apparently nobody got it. No, I think the quarterback scoring bounces back. And I think scoring goes up a lot this year. I think the rule changes are both going to help and so a little bit of a bounce back I think we get the elite scoring from the top but also a little boost for the top 12 as well maybe it takes 21 fantasy

points per game to be a top 12 quarterback this year what do you guys think I would say that if if things played out the way they did last year, there's just no reason to even consider a quarterback until round four. What was the difference between Allen and everybody else? Handful of points per game? I'll get back to you on that. The number between Allen and Hertz was 2.8 something. So 2.8 better than anybody. Better than...

No. Oh, sorry. Like Flacco had 25.4. Two points better than Dak. Okay. And like six better than replacement cost or eight better than replacement? Well, he was worse than Carson Wentz.

Maybe seven. I tried to make a was worse yeah he was worse than carson wentz so maybe seven yeah i just tried to make a joke there he was worse than carson wentz uh wentz averaged 28.1 points per game in one game he was barely better than joe flacco yeah i okay heath the point you're making is even though that he wasn't super elite like he was in preview he wasn't averaging 29 points per game so he was still uh you like he was in previous. He wasn't averaging 29 points per game. So he was still, you know, he was still better than the competition by enough to, to make him what a second round pick. I think third, probably,

but he just lost Stefan digs. So, so here we go. And had a career high in rushing touchdowns by almost double. When we've been doing drafts, I know it's not going to work like this, Jamie, but Josh Allen's lasting to the fourth round and then I'm in. But you're just waiting and waiting and waiting. I feel like every draft we do, you're waiting a long time. Well, I mean, when you start to see a pattern, when you draft with the same people, you just play that pattern out.

And so I think I've kind of made it clear the draft targets I'll be looking at and the two that stand out to me the most so far have been Jordan Love and Kyler Murray. ADP is going to skyrocket to some degree if he gets Marvin Harrison or, or, or neighbors, um, or trades down and gets, you know, a couple of wide receivers, but in the Cardinals, um, in any event, you know, the, the position feels very deep once again. And, you know, you're getting hopefully Anthony Richardson back at a hundred percent and we'll see where his ADP lies. And, you know, to, to a coming off a year, we led the NFL in passing yards is going to be cheap. And, you know, if you still believe in Trevor Lawrence, he's going to be free. We talked about the two 40 year old guys. Like it's not Josh Allen, but I am curious to see, are we going to get a consensus?

Number one quarterback this year, because if the bills don't add somebody, it's hurts one. Is that going to scare people off of Allen? Does Mahomes increase his value just because of Marquise Brown alone? To get back to what we know he's capable of doing as a 5,050 touchdown guy, I don't think that is

realistic, but 4,840? Would you doubt Mahomes doing that? Plus what he does as a rusher? Lamar Jackson and what he still offers. I saw people when, when Stefan Diggs was trained at Houston, CJ Stroud's now the number one quarterback in fantasy. Okay. Go that route if you want to, but it's a, it's, it's a great position. If you know, you're, you're banking on, you know, certain guys performing at a certain

level and we know it's just not realistic that everybody's going to stay healthy and have the receiving course stay healthy. So you got, you, you play that game out, out but i mean i just can't buy into josh allen or jalen hurts in round one even round two and for me round three you know okay i'm with you adam you know it gets around four it's good value especially when you start to get into that you know gray area of these running backs don't feel like fourth round picks and these receivers feel like we're reaching a little bit. And so nothing left to tie down. That's exactly the thing is this year we can't,

you know, come to a consensus on receivers that should be drafted in round two after the top eight are off the board. No tight end deserves to be drafted around two as of now. Yes, you could certainly take a running back, but this would be a perfect time to just say, okay, I'll just take one of those stud quarterbacks.

And by the way, if the Chiefs draft a receiver in round one, I think Mahomes is going, it could be number one overall. Like, not consensus necessarily. You can make a case he's number one now. I agree. If the tush push is not going to be the same, so we're going from 15 rushing touchdowns, let's say, to 8 to 10 for Jalen Hurts. And Josh Allen just lost his number one receiver and is replacing him with a rookie at 28th overall in the NFL draft, which could be the seventh rookie off the board by that point.

Who knows? And then Mahomes, Rice isn't suspended. Kelsey's back. You know, I mean, it's so hard because, you know, like they're hunting a three-peat right now. They're not hunting an MVP trophy for Mahomes. So, you know, I think they're comfortable with winning with the same formula. Maybe not the same struggles as we saw during the season, but they're comfortable, I think, with the formula. Get to the playoffs, turn things on in the playoffs because we know they're capable of doing it.

That's what they did with Kelsey. So I just don't see right now, the today, two weeks for the NFL draft, the reason to draft one of these guys early. Now, again, that could change dramatically. Once we get to, like you said, chiefs draft receiver bills, trade up, get one of these guys like, you know, yeah, you're right back in on them. And I still think we'll see the ADP,p unfortunately top 15 probably worst case scenario for the number one quarterback you know usually it's top six or seven yeah just people like to draft their quarterbacks early okay if in 2022 mahomes allen and hertz all average 28 or more fantasy points per game and six point per passing touchdown leagues like that's incredible last year remember remember Josh Allen was at 26.2.

Technically Hertz was at 27.9 in 2022, but let's just make it easy. They all average 28 or more points per game. And Hertz was even better than that before his injury. If you remember the way he finished in week 18, those three guys were so good that if you, if you told me that they were going to do that again, then I would absolutely then I would probably consider taking them late in the first round

if I knew they were going to do that. Definitely in the second round. Definitely ahead of Isaiah Pacheco, you know, something like that. But... I got to pick on him. The anger with which you... You said his name almost as angry as he runs.

Sorry. Ahead of James Cook, ahead of Derrick Henry. I'd take him ahead of Saquon Barkley if I knew I was getting 28 or more points per game from a quarterback. You can crap on Barkley.

No, it's okay. He's no longer a giant. Do you think we'll get 28 or more points per game from a quarterback this year? No. Do I? I don't have to pick which one.

I just say a quarterback scores 28? Yeah. In. Yes. I agree. Who? One.

I know. All right. Who? One. I know. All right. Well, they seemed safe to approach that, and none of them really did last year. It was a big letdown. No. But the other thing to remember is that the position is deep. If you're just looking for someone that can get you by with 20 points per

game from week to week, look at any of our rankings, any of the guys ranked, honestly, like top 18. These are guys that are going to get drafted in the majority, if not every single league. And people say, okay, I could see myself starting these guys. I could see myself starting Jared Goff. I could see myself starting Aaron Rodgers. Now that's push comes to shove.

No one wants to begin the year starting these guys. We don't know what the matches are. Maybe that'll change, but that's the other side to it is that it's deep. So if you miss out on a, on a, one of these great quarterbacks, because someone took them in round one, or you draft the guy and he ends up being not what you thought he was. There's a, there's an alternative, the roadmap to having a fantasy season where you get good production from your quarterback is plentiful. There are a lot of different avenues to take to be successful at quarterbacking fantasy. Okay, last mystery number five.

Were the last 12 games for Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb legit? So we just threw out some numbers about points per game for quarterbacks. In 2022, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes averaged 28.8, 28.9 points per game. That's what Dak Prescott averaged, 28.8 points per game in his last 12. CeeDee Lamb averaged 27.7 points per game in his last 12 games. To do that in 12 games impressive to do that for a full season 27.7 points per game I have not seen that the most I've seen was like 25 and a half for Devante Adams and Cooper Cup in 2020 and 2021 respectively I think those were the years so he would lay out it wasn't like a six game. It was a 12 game stretch where he was the best wide receiver per game that we had seen in.

I went back to 2000. I think I didn't see anything like it. So Dave, I'll let you start. Were the last 12 games for Dak Prescott and CD lamb legit? What have the Cowboys done this off season to make you think otherwise? Have they? The line would be the only concern. It's a concern, but I think that that's where they go first and foremost in the draft. And then on top of that, is their defense going to be as good as it was last year?

I think there is a trajectory. I don't know if there is or not, but 12.6 targets per game. I don't know why you chose 12 games, Adam. I just looked at all their games after the bye. And the numbers are just fabulous for lamb and Dak. And part of it is lamb average over 12 targets per game. Defenses couldn't figure out how to stop them. Now short of him missing training camp because of a contract holdout and all

that kind of putting some muck in the works, I guess. I think that there's absolutely a chance that Lamb continues to generate tons of targets, tons of catches, and tons of numbers, and that'll help Dak Prescott. But they've done nothing, nothing this offseason to make me think that they're going to vary that plan offensively. No, but can they be as good? Yes, as good. Okay, but can they be as good? Yes. As good? Okay.

Maybe not as good, but even if they're 85% of what it was last year, that's still the number one receiver and a very, very good fantasy quarterback. Yeah. Heath, can they be the number one receiver and one of the truly elite quarterbacks? Like I said, he's been top four per game

in three of the last five seasons that does come with one asterisk. He was top four in four and a half games, throwing like 45 passes per game in 2020, I think that was. But I know you believe that Lamb can be elite. Do you think Dak can be in the Mahomes, Hurts, Jackson, whoever, whatever tier that ends up, could Dak be a part of that?

Yeah, I don't think it's like, it's just like, I don't think it's realistic to expect Lamb to average 27 fantasy points per game next year. I think he'd be wide receiver one with 24 to 25. And I don't really think that if Mahomes or Allen or Hurts or Lamar are the best they've been, that Dak can hang with those guys.

But if you were saying that a top four QB isn't one of the elite, then I absolutely believe Dak could be a top four QB at maybe 26 fantasy points per game over a full season. I mean, you shave a touchdown off of CeeDee Lamb's production. He's still in the top five of receivers last year. So it's like, you know, 21 points per game is still very, very good.

Oh, a touchdown per game. Yeah, I know. Isn't that insane? But that was not his full season. I know. But what I'm saying is like, you know, you look at what the top guys were. I don't remember exactly all of them, but Tyree Kill was right around 21 points per game. Keenan Allen was around 21 points per game.

Obviously, Lamb, you know, finished in that range, you know. So when you're looking at the best of the best from last year, 21 is elite. Like he's saying 24, 25. I'll take 21. I'm not going to be upset if he's in that range. Lamb and Hill averaged 23.8-ish right around there per game. Keenan Allen was at 21.6.

I don't think anybody else was over 21. St. Brown was 20.7. Justin Jefferson was 20.2. Yeah. So, yeah, certainly you can be number one at 20. 23 points per game is a monster season. Lamb was at 23.8. Dave and I are going to have slightly different numbers,

but it's more or less the same. And I think what's so encouraging is i've i realized i was way too low on dac when we did our january rankings our top 12 yeah way too low because because he just i thought basically dac had such a good year because the rest of the quarterback position was so bad uh which is somewhat true but really it was 2022 that was the outlier for Dak that was just a bad year for him he threw a lot of interceptions other than that he's been really really good since Kellen Moore became the coordinator basically the last five years he's been really really good the outlier was 2022 so Dak is just solid very consistent and

has more upside than I realized, I would say. Dak got hurt pretty early on in 2022. He did, but he still played 12 games. Right. I'm seeing in my notes his final nine games. So one game passes return from injury in 2022. He averaged 23.9 fantasy points per game. I don't know if we can look at him and say,

okay, boom, 24 fantasy points without game. I don't know if we can look at him and say, okay, boom, 24 fantasy points without breaking a sweat. But it's kind of what he's done when he's been right over the past three seasons as a floor. It's 29 in his last 11 games last year. Okay.

We good? Ready for some pop culture talk? I'm getting excited to take Dak when he falls in our drafts i'm on a british kick right now and i'm very tired because i started watching ted lasso i had never seen it before you guys in on ted lasso i haven't seen it either but none of you have seen ted lasso this is one of my bad tics. I watched one episode and I was like, eh. I love it. I can't stop watching it.

I've been up until like 2 in the morning each of the last two nights binge watching Ted Lasso. It is so good. It is so likable. I will say season two so far I've only seen two episodes. It's not as good as season one. So I hope that picks up. But season one of Ted Lasso, please give it another shot. It is so good. The other thing, I've been wanting to talk about this just because I want all of you to be part of this.

Because I am in on the next big thing. And I'm going to be able to say I was a fan of this before it got really big. There's a new musician. I haven't liked a musician since almost 20 years. I haven't liked a band, basically, in like 20 years. I hate music now. I only like 90s music, essentially. But if anybody has heard Sam Fender, he is my new obsession. This guy is freaking incredible. He is going to be huge in England. He's going to be huge in America soon.

He's got a song and an album called 17 Going Under. I strongly recommend it. And I recommend reading the lyrics because that is the best part of his music. He's an incredible lyricist. Sam Fender, rock on. The only reason I believe in music right now is Sam Fender. And it has fired me up for like the last couple of weeks

just listening to that album over and over and over again. So you are- So you've been on a Fender bender. I've been on a F bender. I've been on a fender bender. Yes, exactly. It is kind of ironic that you run a dynasty league that you were in for many, many years and didn't realize until you took over as commissioner

that half the league lives in London. Yeah, they do. Yeah. And they've heard of Sam Fender and they like him. I sent a text. Well, one person got back to me about it. i sent a text to the to the group chat and uh yeah but please if you know you in the group chat because i'm not i i am not it well i might be actually and i just muted it

because there was lots of i i if i get into a group chat and people start talking too much like yeah i'm gonna mute this i'll come back and check later i will say i watched the uh the taylor swift eras tour uh on disney and it it's spectacular adam you should watch it it'll restore your faith in music i don't think it will i mean i like she's great but i it won't i i need i need rock music i mean like legit rock music so um and lyrics you could read apparently too no well the thing is you can't really understand a lot of what he says. Cause the accent is very, for the words,

the accent is very, very thick, but you can tell like the guy had a tough upbringing and I've read a lot of interviews and see and watch some interviews with him and he, you can relate, right? He poured, no,

he pours it all out in his, in his lyrics. And that is amazing to me to me it just you just connect to him so what do you mean british kick names it's about a ted lasso is about it's about the english premier league give me a break almost every actor is british um okay do your best British accent. Absolutely. Give me a line from your Fender vendor. Sam Fender. He is awesome.

I promise you, he's going to be huge. And you're all going to remember this moment. So you remember. Okay. I'm going to listen on the drive to lunch.

17 going under. And I will say... The music is good. I'll back you up on it, Adam. The music is good. Truthfully, I didn't like the song the first time I heard it. So please listen two or three times.

Two or three times. I need two or three times before I make an informed opinion about it. Who recommended it to you? I heard him on Sirius on Spectrum a few months ago. And then my wife heard him again last month and was like, oh, have you heard Sam Fender? I was like, yeah, I wasn't really that into it. Then I got back into it. I was like, oh, yeah, this is great.

So there you go. Later, everybody. You're welcome. And if you watch The Karate Kid, I'm sorry I ruined Karate Kid for you. It just makes no sense. For Heath, Dave, Jamie, and Thomas, I'm Adam. We'll talk to you on Wednesday on Fantasy Football.