Fantasy Football Today - "The Regression Profession!" Regression for Deebo, Kupp, Pitts and More (05/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 24, 2022

Get your FFT gear here! https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20 We're learning about regression today! Well, really we're just talking about abnormally high or low TD rates, yards per catch and other metrics that will factor into your 2022 draft strategy. We start with a Deebo Samuel chat (2:15) and a Ja'Marr Chase stat (9:15). Are we actually concerned about how many 50+ yard TD catches Chase had last season? ... News and notes (14:00) as we have some players skipping voluntary team activities. Then we talk QB regression candidates Lamar Jackson (17:40) and Joe Burrow (21:50). Will Burrow increase his pass attempts enough to combat the regression that we know is coming? ... Moving on to RBs (29:10), Dalvin Cook, Miles Sanders and James Conner had different kinds of TD luck in 2021. Should we expect Cook to regress back to being an elite Fantasy option? Then we talk WRs (36:10) including Cooper Kupp and TEs (44:15) including Cole Kmet and Kyle Pitts ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It is Tuesday, May 24th, and Rashad Penny is hurt. Who had May 24th? Or May 23rd, really, it happened. So, yeah, we'll check the overalls. It's unbelievable. Yeah, it stinks. But it's, you know, maybe it's just nothing. Did you see the video? No, I didn't.

So, I saw, I forget who it was. I should get it so I credit the person. You should. I never do. But it was Greg Bell who covers the Seahawks for the News Tribune. So, he tweeted a video of a drill that they were doing. And Rashad Penny is, like, just standing off on the side watching the drill and said Penny not taking part in in activities uh because of a slightly strained hamstring I was already it's just ridiculous this poor guy yeah that's a bummer

um remember don't be a jerk on social media Rashad Penny is a lesson in how you can impact people's mental health basically don't be a. Nobody cares about your fantasy team, except for us. We care. All right, anyway, so regression candidates. So Jamar Chase's touchdowns, Lamar Jackson. It's a lot of touchdown stuff. Cole Komet not scoring. Miles Sanders not scoring.

That kind of stuff. Dalvin Cook unlucky inside the five-yard line. What did it mean last year? What does it mean this year? We're going to go through a whole list of players here. Did I jerk to you on Twitter? No. About the Predator comment?

No, no. That was funny. Was I a jerk to you on Twitter? Probably. When I made that whole list of all of your worst takes ever? No, that was funny. But you misquoted me on at least one. Or misrepresented me on the Michael B. Jordan thing.

Whatever. Adam said that watching Predator will make you manlier. And I asked him when he's going to watch it. That's not mean at all. That's very funny. I got a Debo Samuel stat for you. He's a regression candidate. Finishes a top three wide receiver.

It's more of like a storyline. His season was cut in half. First half of the season, he was incredible as a receiver. Second half of the season, he really wasn't, but he was incredible as a running back. But, you know, you look at the first half, there were very, very few games where you had Brandon Ayuk playing a full snap share and you had George Kittle healthy.

By the time Brandon Ayuk started playing his full snap share, George Kittle got hurt. Debo was great in that time. But if you look at the last eight games of the year, the last seven games of the year for Debo Samuel, he averaged five targets per game. And that was most of the time when you had both Ayuk fully ramped up because he was kind of in the doghouse at the beginning of the year, playing 90% of the time when you had both iuk fully ramped up because he was kind of in the doghouse at the beginning of the year playing 90 of the snaps and george kittle uh on the field and debo samuel on the field and you're talking five targets per game for debo samuel um he what does that mean to you

i think it's a lot like ozark because you've got that split in the middle of the final season where the first half of the season is really about one thing and then the second half of the final season where the first half of the season is really about one thing. And then the second half of the season, it becomes clear after the finale is really about another thing. I hate you. So I have not seen the finale. Jamie and Heath are torturing me. I'm honestly concerned. I swear. I'm not joking. I'm honestly concerned that some jerk in everybody's nice, except for maybe one jerk who's going to spoil it in the YouTube comments. So Schrager, I'm not looking at the YouTube comments today. That is allger, I'm not looking at the YouTube comments today. That is all you. I will not have this show spoiled for two episodes left.

Just so our audience knows, the things that I've told Adam that have actually happened in the show, that Marty was abducted by aliens. Yeah. That Charlotte's moved to Canada. Right. That Jonah's now the head of the cartel. I don't, like, Can we just stop, please?

Just stop. Okay. So, yeah, anyway, what did you think of that Debo stat? Five targets per game in his last seven games. Yeah, I think if he has the role he had in his last seven games, I'm even more concerned about regression than I am if you just look at his full season statistics. Because if it's five carries and five targets per game,

that's not probably going to be a very good number one wide receiver, and it might not be a number two. And Jamie, he's so interesting, Debo Samuel, because he's unlike any wide receiver we've really seen with his role in the running game, unless we're counting Cordell Patterson, but now he's also getting a new quarterback in theory. So how much regression do you think is coming for a top three wide receiver last year? There's obviously some, you know, he's just so good with the ball in his hands that, you know, this whole top offseason, you know he's just so good with the ball in his hands that you know this whole top offseason you know talking point about his contract situation you know his his unhappiness um is it because he was used in that regard as a as a ball carrier and taking so many additional

hits that a wide receiver typically does not take and so there's that whole group of round two wide receivers at least the guys i expect to be in round two that he's a part of that are really not necessarily a mystery, but there's a lot of, you know, question marks surrounding them. You have Devante Adams in a new team with a new quarterback. You have Tyree kill on a new team with a new quarterback. You have AJ Brown on a new team with a new quarterback. You know, you have Debo Samuel with a new quarterback.

And is his role going to be more of a wide receiver or more of a do-it-all threat? And the 49ers seem pretty content making him a do-it-all threat because he was so successful for their team. But will they push back on that? Because he's pushing back on that. And so it kind of, you know, if you really want to get a wide receiver, a top-tier wide receiver early, it doesn't have any question marks. You take one in the first round of the three guys,

you know, are pretty much locked in that we talked about last week of cup Jefferson and chase and take your chances with those round two running backs. So those around two receivers, or, you know, hopefully you get Kelsey or Andrews and you avoid that group. If you are concerned.

All right. The last eight games for Debo, he averaged five targets per game and 6.6 carries per game. The bigger concern, I think, is what if it is that Debo doesn't want to play running back so much and Trey Lance is quarterback and they just don't throw the ball that much and Iuke's playing a full snap share and Kittle's healthy. Well, yeah, that right. It's a concern, but also

when he wasn't getting a lot of carries, because in the first eight games of the year, he had six carries. He wasn't used as a running back at all, really. He got 10 targets per game. Now, like I said, that was, that was, you know, IU not playing a full snap share for most of that.

Then Kittle got hurt, but 10 targets per game for Debo. He was on pace for 1,874 yards on 172 targets. But the question is, I guess, what was the bigger factor? Was it the fact that Ayuk got off to a slow start and Kittle got hurt and the targets were up? Or was it that he wasn't being used as a running back and the targets were up?

You know what I mean? I think this puzzle is fascinating because i don't think elijah mitchell can have a breakout season if debo's playing as much time at running back and they're going to work in you know davis price and to whatever extent trace herman i don't think that debo can produce at the same level if he's not playing running back, if Trey Lance isn't a significant upgrade or at least on par with what Jimmy Garoppolo's kind of best has been, which, you know, certainly has been good at times. And Kittle can't be the same type of player that he's been if all these other things are working together. Like, just putting this all together, like, you know, Heath for doing projections has got to be a little maddening. For anybody drafting these guys, it's kind of just a roll of the dice with almost all of them because we just don't know with how Trey Lance is going to play, his mobility factoring in to these guys. Is Mitchell healthy? Is Kittle going to stay healthy? It's just a fascinating team.

I find myself tending to avoid the 49ers at cost because, you know, I think just buying into Elijah Mitchell as a fourth or fifth round running back is just feels a little too pricey for me, especially in PPR. Debo in round two feels a little bit too pricey. I haven't ranked that way, but I just think it's, it's a little bit too risky and Kittle, you know, round four, maybe round five for sure. But, you know, anything early round four, I tend to stay away from them. So Iuke and Davis Price and Sermon are the 49ers guys

that I tend to find myself gravitating toward in the drafts I've done, but even those guys feel a little question mark just because you just know what you're getting. So this team is, especially if Garoppolo is still on the roster when we get to training camp, I don't know what to make of him, to be honest with you. Heath, give me a round for Debo. Two or three?

I would feel much better about him in round three. Would you consider taking him in round two, or is he strictly round three? I would consider taking him in round two, but I'd rather not.

Here's a Jamar Chase stat. So what's the regression for him, by the way? Touchdown rate, yards per catch? Yes. Okay. He had five touchdown catches of 50 or more yards. As a rookie, five touchdown catches of 50 or more yards. Only eight players in NFL history.

By the way, a little help from Heath and Schrager on this one. Only eight players in NFL history. By the way, a little help from Heath and Schrager on this one. Only eight players in NFL history had more than five in a season. The most recent was Antonio Freeman for Green Bay in 1998. So Jerry Rice's career high single season is five touchdown catches of 50 or more yards. Randy Moss's

five. And that was also his rookie year. So that's probably going down for Jamar Chase. But I'm going to say the targets are going up though. 24 wide receivers have had five in a season. Only a couple did it twice. Jordy Nelson and Jerry Rice, I believe. But the most recent player to have four touchdowns

of at least 50 yards was A.J. Brown in his rookie year, 2019. He has not had a touchdown of 50 yards or more since. The most recent before him to have at least four touchdowns of 50 or more yards was Tyree Kill. He has not either. Wow. But Tyree Kill had a season with five such catches

and then followed that up with four, right? Is that what you said? Yes. Okay. And I'm now not sure that that thing I just said about Tyreek Hill is totally true. Well, I've got two different databases here. I'm using StatHead, which is a fantastic job. I want to give them credit.

But I also have Pro Football Reference, which is associated, but it looks a little bit different. Okay. All right. Well, there were some big plays. I love big plays, but plays that big are hard to replicate, I guess. You just have to have the proper amount of yardage. Like 35 yards.

That's what we should be looking for. Anyway, Fantasy Football Today is here to help you dominate your fantasy league all season long, and now you can represent your favorite podcast with official Fantasy Football Today gear only found on the CBS Store, CBS Sports Store. I have a link for it in the episode description. We've got t-shirts, mugs, sweatpants, laser-engraved pint glasses, hats, water bottles, and more to remind your buddies how you got the inside scoop to crush them in your fantasy league. And right now, our listeners will get 20% off their order when they use this podcast exclusive code,

FantasyFootball20. FantasyFootball20 at checkout. So you get 20% off your order with the promo code FantasyFootball20. And it's only for our listeners. Head over to the link in the episode description and shop right now for your FFT gear. Let's get the best shape of his life-o-meter out.

We've got another player on there. It's not really a meter. We need something for this segment, though. Best shape of his life list. I don't know. We had Amari Rogers. Welcome, Mac Jones. You are now in the best shape of his life club. Oh, we can call it that. Best shape of his

life club. They did say he lost his belly. He lost his belly. And who was it that. Best shape of his life club. They did say he lost his belly. He lost his belly. And who was it that said he was in the best shape of his life, Jamie? I don't know. Mr. Efficient himself, Kendrick Bourne. I do know this, and I take issue with it. What? Kendrick Bourne presumably has known Mac Jones for all of about 18 months.

How does he know what the best shape of Mac Jones' life is? I'm just saying, you know, he said it, so now he's on the list. You've all seen the picture, right, with his shirt off? Of what, Mac Jones? Yeah. The one that made the rounds last year? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Whatever.

Anyway, we're going to keep adding to the list. Anytime any of you have – I'm in the best shape of my life. You are? You're not. Usually it's God, you're fat. If anybody sees anyone join the best shape of his life club, please alert me because we've got to keep a running list.

So I need to go back. I don't know what the first thing I was saying was, but A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill have had touchdowns that long. now i need to go back i i don't know what the first thing i was saying was but aj brown and tyreek hill have had touchdowns that long they've not had seasons with four or five or six or seven of them but they have had a touchdown of more than 50 yards okay well i just need to say that um damn it i don't i was trying to. If you play something when I do that, then it really takes away my motivation to correct myself. Heath, there's that one scene in episode 13 where they're running away from a bear.

Well, that's just a Jamie stat. Yeah, running away from a bear. All right, news and notes. And they're running probably about 40, 50 yards. Terry McLaurin and Kyler Murray, not with the team for the offseason workouts. Terry McLaurin skipping them. Kyler Murray skipping OTAs.

Alex Mack also. Okay. I don't hear about offensive linemen doing that too often. But okay. So any big reaction to this, Jamie? I think I saw the Cardinals. Marquise Brown also not there so you never know if that's just you know guy moving and trying to get you know accustomed to new city or he's

you know just not able to attend but i would assume he's probably happy with the situation given the fact that he requested the trade um kyler this is expected uh um mclaurin i mean these are two guys you know that we've heard about contract situation. So, you know, it shouldn't be surprising. You know, you look at McLaurin's situation and clearly every wide receiver for the most part got paid that wanted to get paid. And he's the one that's, you know, left out at this point. So we'll see if there's a contract extension coming. For Kyler, you know, his situation as well. This was the fear.

You know, I think I mentioned this. You heard some rumblings at the owner's meetings that this may linger in a training camp. And, you know, this Cardinals team, I saw Peter King write this too with his power rankings on Pro Football Talk, that this Cardinals team just feels like something's off. You know, you have Kyler's contract situation. You have, you know, Chandler Jones leaving. You have DeAndre Hopkins with the suspension.

Christian Kirk leaving. There's just a lot of turnover in certain spots and key guys missing and the quarterback not happy. It feels like it could be a disastrous season for the Cardinals. I hope not because clearly we all have a lot invested in their fantasy options. Kyler, Hopkins to whatever extent, Marquise Brown, James Conner, Zach Erst. There's a lot to like about this team, clearly. So hopefully everything is on the up and up by the time we get to week one.

But it just feels like it could be a disaster happening in Arizona. And by the way, Marquise Brown, I mean, it could be a contract thing, though, because he's in the same year as McLaurin and A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf. So maybe he wants a contract. There was just this report that Marquis Brown could get paid top dollar. So I don't know. And Alex Mack, by the way,

is a center for the 49ers who might retire. I don't know if he's holding out or what, but he hasn't as last I saw, I just happened to see before the show started that he wasn't that volunteer. Yeah. So just looking up some reports there, they're not clear that he's going to even come back this year at all, at least as of a couple weeks ago.

More news. Matthew Stafford not throwing yet. He's got, I think, his elbow. Just kind of not a huge deal, but just kind of keeping it. Stafford? He's staying cautious. Yeah, Stafford. He had a procedure, right?

You said it? He did, right? You said he did, right? He had an injection, his elbow to clear out something. So clear up something. Gino Smith is apparently looking like he's in the lead right now to be the starting quarterback for the Seahawks. Still a lot to be determined.

Rashad Penny has the hamstring injury issue. Injuries plus issue is inju. And Travis Etienne is going to be full go for OTAs. And that's it for the news and notes. So let's get to the regression candidates. Hope you listen to FFT in five. Heath and I were arguing about this during the mic check before the show even started yesterday.

I cannot sit by and listen to the Joe Burrow slander. So it's Lamar Jackson and Joe. Yeah, it's slander, Heath. There's zero slander. But I understand because after Josh Allen's season, breakout season, they thought it was slander. And after Lamar Jackson's MVP season, Ravens fans thought it was slander.

And after Patrick Mahomes' MVP season, Chiefs fans thought it was slander. And after Patrick Mahomes MVP season, Chiefs fans thought it was slander. He didn't win the MVP. He did not win the MVP. He did have an outlandish efficiency year. Who do you want to start with, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow? I think Lamar Jackson because we will all agree.

Okay, go ahead. He had a 4.2% touchdown rate last year. His career rate is 6.3%. That's passing. Rushing touchdowns, he had never had fewer than five in a season. He had two on 133 rush attempts. He averaged 40 more yards from scrimmage per game last year than he did during his MVP season

and was seven or eight points worse on a fantasy points per game basis. Let's talk about the per game stuff with Lamar Jackson, because he finished eighth and four point and 12th and six point. But you really do for this one. You really have to Acer stat it. Yes, that's just an Acer stat. So you got to take out the game where he threw, I think four passes. He Azers stat. Yeah, so you got to take out the game

where he threw, I think, four passes. He played 14% of the snaps. And if you take out that game, he's a top five quarterback, fourth in four point and fifth in six point. So, you know, there's that. And where do you guys have

Lamar Jackson ranked? Fourth. Six, but that might change. I guess the question is, what is the absence of Marquise Brown due to his passing touchdowns? Is he going to get back to the 6.2 career

touchdown rate? Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews have basically accounted for 55% of the team's touchdown catches since 2019. A lot of that is Brown. Is that going to percent of the team's touchdown catches since 2019 uh and a lot of that is brown so or yeah so i mean is that is that gonna hurt the touchdowns for lamar jackson i think it comes down to how you view rashad bateman you know if bateman can step into this role you know different type of

player clearly but you know has the opportunity to be you know if you just go back to past two seasons you know 140 plus targets and 100 targets for you just go back to the past two seasons, you know, 140-plus targets and 100 targets for Marquise Brown over the last two years, you know, so he's the 120-target guy in this offense. The running backs are going to be healthy, you know, or they certainly added a more capable third guy, at least on paper, with Mike Davis. So if the run game is better and Bateman is comparable to Marquise Brown in terms of production,

you know, so Lamar Jackson has the pressure of not having to carry everything because that was all on him last year. And the offensive line was a mess. He clearly has the opportunity to bounce back to almost everything that you like about Lamar Jackson, maybe not the heights of his MVP season. So yes,

I think, you know, the touchdowns will be, you know, maybe a slight downgrade because Brown's not there, but you know, I do think that Rashad Bateman has an opportunity to be that type of player that Marquise Brown was in terms of a stat producer for the quarterback. and they're clearly going to go back to their run-heavy offense. I think it's just worth remembering that Lamar Jackson's fantasy points so far in his career have been inversely correlated with pass attempts. The year that he won the MVP and broke fantasy football, they ran the ball 596 times and threw 440 passes.

Right. And as far as Marquise Brown goes, he does i guess make some big plays last year he had touchdown catches of 42 49 43 and 39 and that's not insignificant i mean that's kind of the argument i'm going to make lamar yes actually and the year before that he he had a 70-yard catch. He had a 44-yard catch, but the rest of them were 2, 3, 26, 18, and 9 yards out. But, you know, it helps to have guys who can make big plays for you. It's a big plus for Burrow, obviously. So let's talk about Burrow Heath. He was QB 8 last year per game.

He was 10th in 4-point and 9th in 6-point for passing touchdown leagues. And I've mentioned this, but in his last 12 games, including the postseason, he scored more than 19 fantasy points, only five times in his last 12 games, scored more than 25 fantasy points, only twice. Those were two games where he averaged 44 fantasy points, but kind of didn't put up great numbers down, you know, in the last 12 games, if you include the four playoff games. And, but still people are really high on him. His ADP is QB4, and I think that's probably what's ringing the alarm bells for you. He's going ahead of Lamar Jackson, whose ADP is QB6 right now in NFC drafting.

Joe Burrow at QB4, as much as I love Joe Burrow, I'm not going to make the argument for him to be QB4 in ADP. But where do you think he should be? I think you have him closer to 12? 11, yeah. the QB for an ADP, but you know, where do you think he should be? I think you have him closer to 12. 11. Yeah. And I don't like I saying somebody is going to regress and we'll get into this more later when we just did with Lamar.

It's not saying they're going to be bad or that you don't like them. But he had an 8.9 yards per attempt last year. That's 10% better than Patrick Mahomes career rate. I don't think we should project Joe Burrow to be better than Patrick Mahomes' career rate. I don't think we should project Joe Burrow to be better than Patrick Mahomes at this point in their career. Now, maybe he'll be better than Mahomes' passing efficiency this year because of his weapons, but I don't want to project him to be better than what Mahomes has been for his career. And no one really has been in the modern era except for Deshaun Watson. And so he needs an increase of about three or four attempts per game

just to match what he did last year in terms of fantasy production. And that was QB8. He'll get it. Well, you also think he's going to double his rushing production as well. Yes. I think he can get to, what did he have last year, like 120? Yeah. Yeah, I think he can double that just based on his college career

and his rookie season. And I think the ACL was why he didn't run so much. But he averaged what – I think 32 – do you have the numbers? I think it was 32.5 pass attempts in the regular season. And it was about 36 in the postseason. And if you look at when they decided to turn him loose, he was throwing a lot more. I just don't see how he's not going to throw more this year.

Jamie, what do you think on Burrow? I mean, look, he was 76% completion percentage in his final year in college, 70 year you know so there's a two year sample size of his accuracy being you know very consistent um i'm obviously i don't know how anybody can't be encouraged by the upgrades on the offensive line and so you're talking about what they allowed him to do in the second half when he's finally healthy and now he's a full year removed from the ACL. You can't look at this receiving core and say it's not among the best trios in football.

And is this OK? Now you've put the team on your back and you've taken us to a Super Bowl. And so now is it starting to chase that again, but also chasing MVPs and chasing all pros and chasing those things? So your legacy starts to come into play. And does that become more of the stat year or stat years coming into play as well? So I think what you guys have said is clearly the case. First off, the fourth QB off the board is way too soon. As encouraged as you should be by Joe Burrow,

you don't have to draft him that high because I don't think many people are going to draft him that high. The other part of it is there probably will be some natural regressions across the board, but if the volume does stay at this level or go up, which I think it might because their schedule is tougher, that he's in these more competitive games and having to throw more. And look, he benefited from a Baltimore defense falling apart.

Cleveland's defense is going to be tough. You know, the Ravens obviously bouncing back to the other defense stuff. So his division is brutal. But if Chase takes the natural step forward and T. Higgins in his third year takes a natural step forward and Tyler Boyd still produces, it's hard not to like Joe Burrow. So he's a top 10 quarterback. You know, I think if you draft him accordingly and you have the right expectations for him, hopefully he exceeds those, but drafting him as the fourth quarterback, you're just kind of setting yourself up for failure. Does he have QB one upside?

I know I said this on a, on a previous show that I don't think so, but that's potentially with everybody in front of him getting hurt to a certain extent. You know, I don't know if he's going to be a 5,045 touchdown guy with the rushing numbers you expect. Well, he doesn't need the rushing numbers if he has that year. Well, true. You know, I don't think he's going to throw it to the level of Brady, you know, to be in the 5,000 club, barring just a disastrous, you know, defensive season

and Joe Mixon getting hurt, probably. Can he be 4,500 in 35 touchdowns? In 40 touchdowns, maybe? I don't know. Okay, so last year, Burrow was 4,634 touchdowns in only 16 games. So, you know. So, probably going to take close to 5,000. Yeah. Right.

Any of two rushing touchdowns as well. I think he absolutely has QB one upside in his career. It might happen after he gets paid and they can't afford to have a good defense. All right. Let's we'll take a break. We'll talk about running backs here we can spend the whole show talking about joe burrow luckily we have a few more months for this uh just want to show

one of our listeners our viewers trolling me right now news and notes trey says news and notes both sweep the panthers yeah they sure did 49 shots on goal from the best offensive team in like the history of hockey basically i mean you mushed the panthers offensive team in the history of hockey, basically. I mean, you mushed the Panthers. Best team in the regular season. You jump on the bandwagon. Yeah. That's true.

I felt, believe me, that's what I thought the entire night. I felt really bad. So the hockey playoffs been good now? They have. They actually have been great. Almost every first round series went seven games.

And it wasn't those pathetic seven games. Has there ever been a bad seven games hockey playoffs i don't know i mean when you have such low scoring right games but but like this panthers lightning series was was terrible it was fine you know there were some good moments whatever but a four game sweep when you got the number one seed getting swept that's that's awful that's that's not good enough um not as bad as the celtics heat series but no i'll say not as bad as the Celtics heat series, but no, I'll say not as bad as the Warriors Mavs series, but yeah. All right.

All right. All right. We'll come back. We'll come right back. We'll talk about some, some touchdown regression and other things. Episode 12. We'll be back.

Wiggins dunk on Luca was so, so special. All right. We'll be, we'll be right back on fantasy football today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days.

And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Miles Sanders didn't score last year. Dalvin Cook

should have scored more. He had six rushing touchdowns in 13 games. James Conner, maybe he'll score fewer touchdowns. He had 18 total touchdowns in 15 games and was Connor, maybe he'll score fewer touchdowns. He had 18 total touchdowns in 15 games and was the number five running back in fantasy. Give me the overall take

here on these running backs and their touchdown regression. Heath Miles, Sanders, Dalvin Cook, James Connor. I'm more confident in Cook scoring more and Connor scoring less than I am in how many touchdowns to project for Miles Sanders versus Boston Scott. I just, man, I hate that situation. And it doesn't make any sense to me why it would happen like it has. And in 2020, Sanders had six and Boston Scott only had one.

But in 2019, Scott had more than Sanders as well. So definitely, Miles Sanders should regress and should score touchdowns. But I do have more concern about him normalizing as a running back. I think it could be a situation where Gainwell takes passing downs and Scott takes short yardage. Boy, I don't really think that scott has a short yardage back do you i mean i wonder how many of his injury situations yeah i feel like i feel like when when boston scott scores scores touchdowns it's usually because miles sanders isn't playing

and it's against the giants and it's always against the giants the thing for sanders first off his cost is absolutely ridiculously amazing so you for what you're buying, you're buying a guy that still has, I think, still top 15 upside. And that's in either format. And more so in non-PPR because I do think his receptions are going to be a problem because of a mobile quarterback. And as he said, Kenneth Gainwell, they really drafted him to be kind of the next Darren Sproles.

And we didn't see it to the extent that I think we were hoping to see it last year. At least I was, but he certainly has that potential. If they don't add anybody else, it's kind of like the chiefs, you know, the same thing with Clyde Edwards.

They've kind of told you, I think what they think of their lead guy is okay. Boston Scott has proven he could be a good backup, but miles Sanders should be their guy on first and second down and whatever he does in the passing game. This is going to be a very good offense. If, if everything comes together,

I mean, Heath is in love with Jalen hurts, understandably. So AJ Brown's addition, you know, this, this team is certainly trending in the right direction. They've done a great job drafting and putting this,

this roster together. So if they score more and they still run as much as they did last year, which is probably not going to be the case, but if there's still a slanted toward a run-heavy team, Miles Sanders is in a great spot. He's in a contract year. He wants to get paid. We usually see guys fight through injuries,

especially guys like him who have had these minor little things come up. He's one of my favorite buys this year. I love the setup for him. I hope we don't get a Jordan Howard-type scenario again where they bring in another veteran to frustrate the of, you know, frustrates the situation, but he's going to score more. I think the six touchdown numbers is well within reach. If he gets anything North of 35 receptions, I think you're in a great spot for him.

So, um, he's, he's ranked higher for me than he's been drafted, which I think he's the 28th running back off the board. Right. We said that yesterday. Um, I got him as RB 30 right now. Okay. Even better. I mean, you know, if you're getting that type of potential production that

late, you should be thrilled about it. What do you make of Connor and Dalvin Cook? I mean, Keith, do you think Dalvin Cook is being drafted 10th overall right now instead of top five because

of the low touchdown number from last year or do you think people will just feel like he's just too injury prone and maybe his best days are behind him what do you think i think if he had scored touchdowns like he did in 2020 when he had 17 um in one more game then yeah he would still be drafted top five it's that he's got to because he's going to miss a few games every year it seems like um he's got to be a hyper efficient running back who also scores a bunch to justify being a top five pick should he be a top five pick though there's no reason why he can't score that much he had so many carries inside the five yard line and he was terrible with them and that's just not going to

happen again i mean that's just not a stat that sticks from year to year if he gets those opportunities again dalvin cook is going to score a lot more touchdowns. I think that's true. I think there's some concern about like it's also a new offense and his role in the passing game while they're using him as a receiver in training camp. That was the worst year he's ever had as a pass catcher last year. Yeah. So what do you think 10th is appropriate for him? I've got him 13th. Oh, so right in that range. It is a pretty big drop for a guy who was a top three running back two straight years. And then if you look at his season, I mean,

it's really largely touchdowns and he missed four games. So I, I don't know, Jamie, and he's going to be 27. Yeah. Jamie, what do you think about Connor?

I mean, did the concerns about the touchdown regression go away when they didn't bring back and really replace in theory, chase Edmonds? Yeah, there's a lot to like about him. You know, again,

I'll go back to what I said that the Cardinal situation, while it feels like things could go South, if Murray shows up and it's fine. And, you know, at least you have that, forget about anything else. We have Murray fine.

Connor, if he avoids injury is a top five running back on paper based on what we saw in this offense last year in the five games that Chase Edmonds missed. I mean, his role in the passing game was amazing. His touchdown potential, as we saw last year, was fantastic. And the competition, while Ingram and Benjamin might prove to be serviceable Chase Edmonds replacements,

one of them, if not both. They clearly show you their faith in Connor right now. So he's in just a great situation. If this offense plays to the potential of what this offense can be, he's a very solid running back to target in the round two round three range depending on when he may where he may fall so um he's also you know got the age concerns that that he has mentioned he's going to be 27 if he's not 27 already um and he's clearly proven to be injury prone himself but you know last year with this team he put it all together and it was fun to watch so

he's uh he's got top 10 upside, if not top 5 upside. Let's see. When did he turn 27? I know it was in May. Could be today. Maybe today's his birthday. No, May 5th. Cinco de Mayo, James Conner.

Happy birthday. Okay, so that's our takes on Conner, Miles Sanders, and Dalvin Cook. We good there, Heath? Or shall we move on to wide receivers? I'm good. All right. I'm good. All right. I'm good. All right, so the wide receivers you gave for regression

are three of the top five from last year, including number one. Cooper Cup, Jamar Chase, and Debo Samuel. And I think we covered Debo Samuel extensively, but what are we supposed to do with that when you just say they're the regression candidates? Tell me what that means in, because I know you have two of them as I think first round pick,

certainly cup chase first round pick for you. Yes. It's, it's three different things. I mean, if Cooper cup was not going to regress, it's with him, it's how far is he going to regress? He'd be the number one pick if he wasn't going to.

Um, but when you have a 28 year old wide receiver that is 40% better than he's ever been, you should expect that he's not going to be that good in the following year. When you have a receiver like Debo who does things in a way that's so much different than anyone ever has, you've got to expect some regression back to the mean. And then Chase's efficiency was just off the charts. I think the nice thing for Cup is that he's shown in 2018 when he was healthy and in 2019 when he was healthy that he's a top 12 wide receiver. And so if you're regressing from one of the best wide receivers ever

to a top 12 wide receiver and you're going to be somewhere in the middle there, he probably still has a really high floor. But you should not expect him to score 16 touchdowns or average 114 yards a game or have 190 targets again. Yeah, I mean, Jamie, for those two guys, for Cup and Chase, I guess, is it fair to say what they don't have over Jefferson is two elite seasons? Although I think Cup had a top five finish

earlier in his career, but you would like a little bit more of a track record, I guess, of elite play if you're going to take a guy in the top five. Do you think Jefferson has the best resume when you're talking about these guys as first-round picks? It's certainly a fair conversation.

I think going back to when we talked about cup versus jefferson versus chase as as i said then it's the first year of cup with matthew stafford and so as good as jared goff may have been stafford's a different kind of player he's a different kind of quarterback he's a borderline hall of famer if he's not there already because of the super bowl win and so the report that those two guys showed in year one, you hope will only get better in year two as they continue to have breakfast together and they continue to develop their on-field chemistry. It doesn't help that Stafford's not throwing right now, but those two guys clearly seem

like they're locked in. And Sean McVay, I remember at the owners meeting, somebody asked about the play against the Bucs and just how there was no concern about calling that play in that situation because he knew that those two guys were going to find a way to connect and it seemed like that was the case on a week-to-week basis now you take away Robert Woods and you don't know what Odell Beckham is and we don't know what Alan Robinson's going to you know turn into now there's some more changes you know I think the loss of Andrew Whitworth, we'll find out how much that's a problem for those entire offense. But I think cup is, you know, like you said,

is there enough of a resume for him? I trust his resume, you know, with golf, certainly with Stafford for chase, you know, I mean, we see players like this, this, this is superstar potential type of guy, you know? So if the targets go up by any extent with a better offensive line and a better quarterback play you know as he continues to progress as well you're removed from from the acl you're plus removed from the acl um the sky's the limit for both of them you know so when we did the show as i said then we're nitpicking these guys so will there'll be regression probably but to what

extent when adams who knows how far he falls tyreek who thought who knows how far he falls debo who know how who knows how far he falls aj brown and all these guys are going through changes you know like the one that might be the safest aside from jefferson could be stefan dicks because he's in the same system with the same or relatively the same system you know ken dorsey stepping in for for table um you know you just you just have to look at those four guys, essentially, and say, I think I know what I'm getting. I feel pretty comfortable with what I'm getting,

and I'm going to buy them with top 15 picks, Diggs being the one that goes in round two. I think it's pretty remarkable to look at Cooper Cupp's career and just to think this. In three of his last four seasons, per 17 games, he's been on pace for at least 1 yards and at least 11 touchdowns in three of his last four seasons. You know,

that's, that's incredible. And the other year he was on pace for 1100 yards and three touchdowns in absolutely terrible season for the Rams passing game where they threw 20 touchdowns, 14 interceptions. But yeah, I mean,

cup, I don't know. I, it almost sneaks up on you how good he was before last year. But obviously last year was another level. 1,947 yards, 16 touchdowns, 191 targets, and even better in the postseason where he was on pace for 2,031 yards and 26 touchdowns. Unbelievable. He had 40% of the team's receiving yards in the regular season. What do you think about this strategy? Just in case you get more from the number two guy,

Allen Robinson, than you did last year with Robert Woods, who was okay, but then got hurt. What do you think about taking both of them? Cup's your first round pick. Robinson, your fifth round pick. You don't reach for him in round four, but he's your first round pick. Robinson, your fifth round pick. You don't reach for him in round four, but he's your fifth round pick. You got to figure they're going to dominate

the passing game. I don't know if you have to figure, but you could. This would be the strategy. You figure they're going to dominate the passing game. And if Robinson's kind of bad, then Cup's still incredibly elite and it doesn't really matter

if you wasted that fifth round pick, if he's just not that good. But if Robinson is good and he's worth that fifth-round pick or even more, maybe it comes at the expense of Cup, but it kind of softens the blow a little bit. You've locked up the clear-cut top two guys in the passing game for the Rams, regardless of how the distribution goes. What do you think?

I think I'd rather go Cup and Van Jefferson. Okay. Yeah, or Robinson and Van Jefferson. But I don't want to use a fifth round pick on Al Robinson, really. But that's where he's going. I would do it independently of Cup.

Let me see where he's going. That's where he went in our draft. Al Robinson's going in the sixth round in AD Robinson is going in the 6th round in ADPA he went in the 5th round in our draft a couple weeks ago he's 65th so he could easily be a 5th round pick if Stafford gets hurt that's a disaster yeah okay fine but

I don't play that game I don't play that game okay look it's how many how many receivers that go in the first five rounds on the same team do we trust so godwin and evans if they're healthy right um higgins and chase yeah okay well if you want to say robinson and and uh and cup right Sutton and Judy, perhaps. Yes.

Are they both going the first five rounds now? No, not yet. But they did in our draft and I think they might. Sutton's at 66. Maybe Jefferson and Thielen? Yeah, Thielen could be around six picture.

I don't know what your, what your point is. No, I'm saying like, how often does this work out? If you do, if you take both three times a year,

I'd say, but the rare thing, the rare thing is, is the round one pick with another guy in the first five rounds, I guess. I don't know if you ever played any of these drafts out, but I know there were times in our mock drafts where you took Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey.

Yeah. That would have worked out. Huh? That would have worked out. I'm sure, but there were certainly plenty of times last year where there was disappointing games for one of them. Well, that's going to be the case with any picks you take. It would have left you thin at running back in theory

because those have been your first two picks, but you don't have to do that with Kup and Robinson. Anyway, I think it's a brilliant strategy. Please consider it. Let's go on to tight end. Tight end. Kyle Pitts, 35th overall. I did another draft where I took Mooney and Komet in the best

ball league. We'll see how that goes. See, that's fine. I mean, not a lot of capital there because Cole Komet's going 150th overall. He a lot of capital there. Because Cole Komet's going 150th overall. He's tight end 17. So Pitts and Komet are going to catch more touchdowns, you'd think. And Pat Fryer made fewer touchdowns. He's going 115th overall.

He's tight end 11. What do you want to focus on here with the tight ends, Heath? Well, I mean, first off, if Marcus Mariota can just be okay, kyle pitts that just his touchdown regression could be the path to him being a top two or three tight end the problem is that you have to draft him as if it's all already happened yeah he'll cut one touchdown last year commit caught none and fryerermuth had seven. So, all right, so that's Kyle Pitts.

I think the biggest thing out of those three, I would say, is that Kyle Pitts or Cole Komet and Pat Fryermuth should not be that far apart. Mm-hmm. One's tight end 11, one's tight end 17. Kyle Pitts over under five and a half touchdown catches. Over. Under. Hmm. Let's see.

When was the last time a tight end finished? How about, what's the fewest amount of touchdowns for a top three tight end over the last five years? Let's find out. Last year it was eight. Waller? Like three years ago?

Over, under how many touchdowns? No, I'm saying what's the fewest amount of touchdown catches for a top three tight end in the last, let's say, five years? I mean, Kittle's got to be in the conversation. He never had more than five. It was Waller had three. Waller had three in 2019, the same year that Kelsey had. How about this?

Kelsey, Waller, and Kittle were your top three tight ends in PPR. They had five three and five touchdown catches that year. The last two years, though, it's been eight. 2018, it was five. George Kittle. Okay. It can be done. George Kittle is living proof. And Komet over under

four and a half touchdowns. Over. That's a good number. I haven't projected at exactly 4.5 touchdowns. Push. Would it be crazy to draft him ahead of Pat Fryermuth? Does anybody have Komet ahead of Fryermuth? Yes.

No. I have one spot ahead in Friar Muth? Yes. No. I have one spot ahead in full PPR. Okay. I can see myself changing that too. You guys ready for some emails?

Oh yeah. Oh yeah. Not doing kicker regression? No kicker regression. Just some emails. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. This is from Mark

in Colorado. Go Rockies, I guess. Do you want to look at that team too? I'm not going to mush them, no. I have no interest. Are the Avalanche in the playoffs?

Oh, yeah. They're the best team, I'd say. I thought the Panthers were the best team. Well, they're the best remaining team. The Avalanche were the number one seed in the Western Conference. He says, I can't believe I had to Google this. It's pathetic. I don't know how to know this.

Dear Larry, Dante, Vinny, and Andres. Those are Rockies. Larry Walker, Dante Bichette, Vinny Castillo, Andres Galarraga, right? Yeah. Okay. I have, well, he's thanking us for being so accessible with questions. You're very welcome. My question is about Kenny Galladay.

I thought this was a good one for regression. Galladay, zero touchdowns last year. Obviously, last year was a disaster for his fantasy value. Given his talent and contract in the new regime in New York City, or New Jersey, isn't he a bounce-back candidate? Isn't Kenny Galladay a bounce-back candidate? I never hear his name mentioned in the sleeper categories. What do you think about him as a late-round dart throw with upside?

It's 100% accurate. I mean, look, he's not going to be as bad. I can't imagine that being the case. It certainly could happen, but he does. He still has plenty of potential. You have to hope that Brian Dable unlocks it, unleashes it, and that Daniel Jones can, you know, hopefully, you know, take advantage of this big target that, you know,

can still make a lot of plays and certainly a lot of contested catches. I think the offseason's kind of told you what they think of their receiving core. You know, there wasn't a lot of significant upgrades, right? You know, they lose Evan In lot of significant upgrades, right? You know, they lose Evan Ingram. You're hoping Sterling Shepard's back from a terrible injury. They're hoping Kadarius Toney takes a step forward. You know, I know you said, Adam, and it makes a lot of sense that they're tanking, and we got the report over the weekend

that expects Saquon Barkley to be heavily involved in the passing game. All those things make sense. But I think Kenny Galladay is going to be a big part of what this passing game looks like. And hopefully he takes advantage of it. This Jamie talked really early in the show about the 49ers and how unfun they are to project. The giants are the destitute man's version of the 49ers because like one of those wide receivers, Tony or Galladay,

or they're saying Sterling Shepard's going to be ready for the start of camp, so maybe it's just him again until he gets hurt. One of those receivers is probably going to be valuable. It'll be Wanda Robinson. Why does Kadarius Tony get drafted ahead of Kenny Galladay? I'm sorry. What would Chris Towers say to that, Adam? You can do it.

What would he say? I don do it. What would he say? I don't know. What would he say? Oh, oh. Kenny Galladay. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony.

Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony.

Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony.

Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony.

Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony.

Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony.

Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony.

Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Canary is Tony. Jones and he's turning the ball over less than he used to because he throws in tight windows fewer than less than he used to and they want him to take more chances this year but one thing about Gallaudet and I liked him I was happy they got him don't get me wrong but one of the things that concern me a little bit he's not a separator and he never has been he's been a great receiver but he does not get separation and that's been a theme for Giants receivers. Kadarius Toney is different, though. Kadarius Toney does get separation

and might just be a better fit for Daniel Jones if Jones is less willing to throw into tight coverage. I think they want him to throw into tight coverage a little bit more. Remember, they want him to cut it loose or whatever. But if he's going to try to turn the ball over less, that might favor Toney. It might be a little bit of abstract thinking here. But Galladay is a guy that doesn't really get open.

He wins contested battles. And maybe that's just not a good fit for Daniel Jones. I don't know. Again, new coach. Let's hope things change there. Okay. Here's another great email. We know he didn't like Jason Garrett last year.

Right. From Jay Fields in Chicago. A different one, though. Not Justin. He says, Adam was right. 23 NBA playoff games have been 20-plus point blowouts.

Bad. And the intro with the grunts is so much better. This is a great email. I don't really know. It's very surprising that you read a positive Adam email. Well, first then a positive adam email um see the theme of today i i would rather have four games that are 20 point games but alternate which team wins every game than a

four game sweep of five to ten point games games. Well, I don't know. Do you think the Warriors-Mavs has been better or worse than the Celtics-Heat? Because game one was a dud. Warriors-Mavs has been much worse. Games two and three were competitive. We only had one competitive game so far in the Heat. The reason...

When you look at the end result, like the last night's Heat game was terrible. The reason... I mean, it... When you look at the end result, like, the last night's Heat game was terrible. Right. The Celtics game was terrible. You know, I mean, from a viewing standpoint.

You know, like, Heath obviously enjoyed it. He's a Celtics fan. But from just a pure viewing standpoint, that was terrible. You know, the Heat not scored in the first quarter.

Like, nobody wanted to watch that one time we got the... after halftime. The previous game was fantastic. Yeah. Oh, yeah. That was a good game. I don't know if it was fantastic, previous game was fantastic. Yeah. Yeah, that was a good game. I don't know if it was fantastic, but it was a good game.

Jimmy Butler wasn't playing. If so, the Heat were basically the most boring team. From a drama standpoint, you had all the Celtics players getting hurt and then coming back, you had the Heat trying to withstand not having Butler.

It was a good theater. Yeah, it was. Some of those Mavs Warriors games through three quarters were good. Then you get to the fourth quarter and they pull away. And that Celtics, game one of Celtics,

I was there and my team lost, so I should not enjoy it. That was a good game. The Celtics were ahead at halftime. And then he had an incredible third quarter. It was a fine game. Just want a little drama. It proves you don't watch the games.

You're looking at your box score scouting. No,, it proves you don't watch the games. Yeah. Who me looking at your box score scouting. I watch, I don't watch the full game. Uh, no, of course not. But you know, you're watching,

um, desperate housewives or something. I'm watching. Yeah. I know what you're not watching. That's I'm watching desperate hockey players. I don't have to watch that anymore though. All right.

Here's the email. An email from Tommy. When they found out that the Titanic was at the bottom of the lake of the Ozarks. Yeah. All right, Tommy says, Dear Sam, Baker, and Kyler. Those are quarter X. From?

Oklahoma. Yeah. In our league, week one waiver wire priority begins in reverse draft order. I have the 11th pick based on my terrible March Madness bracket. That's cool.

Is Zero or Hero RB more viable from the 11th pick based on the fact that I will retain a very high waiver priority early in the season and will theoretically be able to get a quality

running back with long-term relevance through waivers when a starting running back inevitably gets seriously injured at some point in the first few weeks of the season? So I guess he can keep it. He's going to have the second priority. Right, so he's got to sit on it for a few weeks

potentially. So the thing you have to avoid, which it sounds like you're a smart fantasy player and you can do that, is the Tua Tungavailoa two-touchdown game to Sed Wilson in week one, and idiots like me saying,

well, he's the guy. And wasting your top waiver priority on someone like that. But I don't want to draft based on what the waiver claims are going to be. So, you know, is it more viable to do that? Sure. There will be somebody that emerges as we saw last year. It was Elijah Mitchell after week one. So there is the potential for that.

But the last thing you want to do is J.K. Dobbins goes down, Gus Edwards is on the pup list, and you're reaching for Mike Davis, and then by week two, J.K. Dobbins is back, and you wasted that priority. So there's so many different scenarios at play here. So, yes, you're in a good spot because you have that claim and you know that you're able to be patient and hold on to it. But at the same time, I think you want to draft accordingly and not even worry about where you're picking off waivers.

I would say zero RB is much more palatable from this spot if Cup, Chase, or Jefferson is there with your 11th pick because then you could take one of those guys and then you take Andrews or Kelsey at the start of the second round and that's a fantastic zero RB start. But you wouldn't be doing that though based on your waiver claim.

You'd do that anyway. Right. Yes. Okay. All right, guys. So thank you very much for your time. I need help with one more thing. You guys fans of the Big Bang Theory?

Of course. One of the best sitcoms in television history don't you think they would have uh you're missing out jamie don't you think they would have a clever title for regression i'm thinking the regression profession what can we name our show that that big bang theory would do because that's all their shows are you know what i mean you know their titles right so it's like i just like to see and we should have some connections to this, if we could get Sheldon on to explain positive regression. You could just ask him some questions about regression. That would be a fun episode. The Barbarian Sublimation, The Griffin Equivalency, The Euclid Alternative, The Kupernowitzki Theorem, The Panty-Pinata Polarization.

That's the kind of thing i'm looking for here i think the regression profession is the title of today's episode what do you think okay we're teaching people about regression they used to think these things to the professionals like men we did not come up with titles big guy we did not wow the guy you need to do what they oh the positive regression thing we never explained anything about that. Regression can be positive or negative. There it is. It's not called progression, right? It's not called progression.

You're not regressing and going backwards. You're going backwards towards the mean. That was well said, not confusing at all. My belly is regressing. No. No, it's not. You wish it were. All right.

We're getting in the best shape of our lives, and we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.