Fantasy Football Today - These 4 Fantasy Stars Are MASSIVELY Overdrafted! RJ Harvey, Mike Evans, & More! (06/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by Dazon. For the first time ever, the 32 best soccer clubs from across the world are coming together to decide who the undisputed champions of the world are in the FIFA Club World Cup. The world's best players, Messi, Holland, Kane and more are all taking part. And you can watch every match for free on Dazon, starting on June 14th and running until July 13th. Sign up now at dazonone.com slash FIFA. That's D-A-Z-N.com slash FIFA. Bad ADPs. There are some bad ADPs out there.

Starting point is 00:00:33 Let's talk about it right now on FFT Express. All right, we can take a look at early average draft position from Fantasy Pros and Jamie has identified some running backs and wide receivers that he thinks are going too high. And this starts with who? Jamie? Alvin Kamara. He is RB 15 on Fantasy Pros. His ADP is 38th overall, which isn't horrible if you're going to buy into him, but there are some guys going after him that I do like better.

Starting point is 00:00:59 One specifically would be Ken Walker. Look, we know what Kamara is going to do. He's going to catch a lot of passes if he stays healthy, but he's going to be 31, I believe at some point during the season. Coming off a year where he missed the last three games of the year with a groin injury. The bigger thing though is- It'll be 30 in July. It'll be 30 in July, excuse me. Okay. The biggest thing is this offense could be terrible. And we don't know, look, he caught passes last year from the non-Derek Carr quarterbacks. And I think that Kellan Moore will be good for him overall if everything goes right.

Starting point is 00:01:34 But you're asking for a lot of things to go right. An offensive line that's still questionable, a quarterback situation that could be the worst in the NFL, and a team that's not gonna score a lot of points if things go that way. So I just think to take him close to the third round to take him as a top 15 running back, you're asking him at his age to continue to be this awesome receiving threat, which he can be, but I'd rather take him close to a round later.

Starting point is 00:01:57 He is 51st in CBS ADP. So that's good. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So that's Alvin Kamara. That's our first value that was in. That's so good. Not so good. Who else you got?

Starting point is 00:02:08 So I love RJ Harvey and I'm not scared about the JK Dobbin signing ruining him, but he's still going on fantasy pros as RB 20 at 50th overall. Again, the 50th overall, I don't really have a problem with, but really it's some of the guys that are going after Harvey. And I think this hasn't necessarily reflected the change of what could happen with Dobbins. Look, he's a really talented running back JK Dobbins as we saw last year. And so it's some of the guys that are going after Harvey and I think this hasn't necessarily reflected the change of what could happen with Dobbins. Look, he's a really talented running back JK Dobbins as we saw last year. And so it's a great move by the Broncos, but it just really hurts the clear upside of Harvey who I know you felt this way and I certainly did that he was the second best rookie running back after Gentie when we came out of the NFL draft that there was such a path to success for him in a Sean Peyton offense

Starting point is 00:02:45 Like it was hard to overlook. Well that path now could be completely closed off Will it be I don't think so But it could be and so here are some guys that are going after him that I would rather have I'd rather have James Connor and you know, I don't really love older running backs, but I think again easier path to success Trevion Henderson who I think is gonna to share some production, but could easily be the best running back in PPR ahead of Harvey. I'd rather have him. And I think I'd still rather have David Montgomery, who as we know last year got off to a great

Starting point is 00:03:12 start was having a better season catching the ball than Jameer Gibbs was before he suffered his injuries and started to miss some time. So those are three guys I'm torn on even at this point between Harvey and Judkins, Harvey and Caleb Johnson. I think he's closer to those guys than he is to some of the guys that we listed. Again, I still think RJ Harvey could be a number two running back. I still think he has top 20 upside, but the path got a lot harder for him to get there. And so he should not be drafted in this range right now in my opinion.

Starting point is 00:03:39 Yeah. Now I'm looking at NFC average draft position. These are high stakes leagues and just in the last week. So here we can set a date range and see how the Dobbins signing impacted Harvey's ADP. So he is basically exactly what you have. He's behind Connor, Montgomery, and Henderson. And then it's Harvey.

Starting point is 00:04:00 It's Connor mix in Montgomery, Henderson, then Harvey, and then it's quit Sean Judkins, Caleb Johnson, Aaron Jones, Deandre Swift, would you take Deandre Swift over him over? I would right now, you know, I think again, you look at the opportunity that Swift has in front of him. It's amazing. You know, with nobody bringing broad enough significance to, you know, compete with him besides the seventh round running back and new offense with a better offensive line, like there's a lot to like about down this book, you know, compete with him besides the seventh round running back and new offense with a better offensive line. Like there's a lot to like about Deandre Swift. You know, Heath is certainly banging

Starting point is 00:04:28 the drum for him to go much higher than I would take him. But if you're comparing him to, you know, a lot of these rookie running backs, I think Swift's in a better spot. Okay, let's take a break on fantasy football today and talk about some wide receiver values that we do not like right now values that we do not like right now on FFT Express. Discover the magic of BetMGM Casino, where the excitement is always on deck. Pull up a seat and check out a wide variety of table games with a live dealer. From roulette to blackjack,

Starting point is 00:04:56 watch as a dealer hosts your table game and live chat with them throughout your experience to feel like you are actually at the casino. The excitement doesn't stop there, with over 3000 games to choose from, including fan favorites like Cash Eruption, UFC Gold Blitz, and more. Make deposits instantly to jump in on the fun, and make same-day withdrawals if you win.

Starting point is 00:05:16 Download the BetMGM Ontario app today. You don't want to miss out. Visit betmgm.com for terms and conditions. 19 plus to wager, Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-53-12600 to speak to an advisor free of charge.

Starting point is 00:05:39 Bet MGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. All right, who's the first wide receiver you to get to here in terms of going too soon? We don't like the ADP. Stop me if you've heard this before, but it's Mike Evans at wide receiver 19 at 42nd overall. Again, 42nd overall is hard to argue, especially if it's a wide receiver heavy draft. But again, here are some guys that are going after him that I would rather have instead

Starting point is 00:06:03 of Mike Evans at this point Rashi Rice Who's the 21st wide receiver at 42nd over 46 overall? Excuse me I would take DJ more ahead of Mike Evans right now and I would take Portland Sutton ahead of Mike Evans as well And that's probably the two that would get more pushback than anything But you look at Sutton. Well, what is he probably gonna give you? Thousand yards receiving and maybe ten touchdowns. I mean That's what you're expecting from Mike Evans, right? Evans track record much better, but then you look at the offenses

Starting point is 00:06:30 and there's so much competition for Evans this year. And he was not performing at the same level that he finished the way he started because of Chris Godwin, who's going to come back. And now they have Emeka Abouka. So I understand why Evans is getting drafted ahead of Sutton. I would take Sutton.

Starting point is 00:06:43 And again, I think DJ Moore, especially with Burden being banged up in training, a mini camp and Loveland being banged up a little bit in mini camp. Like I still think DJ Moore is going to be the best receiver for the Bears. Much better season, I hope for him because of Caleb Williams. And then Rashi Rice to me is an easy one because I think a player on his ascension level compared to where Evans who's 32 and probably starting to decline a little bit, I'd rather have rice.

Starting point is 00:07:07 Yeah. You know what is interesting about this Chris Godwin argument when it comes to Mike Evans, because when Godwin was healthy last year, Evans was not even a top 20. I think he was 26-ish or something like that. 14.3 PPR points per game. Yeah, which is fine, but it's nothing like what he was for the full season or certainly after the Godwin injury. I don't really think Godwin's going to be as effective as he was. Because he's coming off such a severe injury. I don't know this. This is just my guess.

Starting point is 00:07:39 However, that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to get fewer targets. When you see guys coming off these major injuries, these receivers, Godwin's an example. Sometimes they get plenty of targets. It's not like they're not on the field. It's not like they don't get looked at. They just don't do as well with the targets. So even if Godwin isn't himself, I still see a scenario where he affects Mike Evans negatively just with his presence alone. Trey Lockerbie And now you have a buka. And let's not forget, this is the guy. And now you have a buka. And let's not forget, you know, this is the guy that kind of gets lost a little bit.

Starting point is 00:08:08 Jaylen McMillan was really good for them last season at the end of the year, like, and he didn't need a lot of targets to be that good. So what happens if he does get a few more targets? I also think you're getting serious regression from, well, you're getting regression from Baker Mayfield. I just don't think he's good. What do you throw 40 touchdowns last year? Yep, 4500 yards. Yeah, 4500 yards, 41 touchdowns. Maybe he can do it again, but I

Starting point is 00:08:31 don't know. I'll take the under. Uh give me another wide receiver whose value you don't like. Devontae Smith wide receiver 2450 second overall. Um I hope Devontae Smith produces at a high level. I know you do. You made a trade for him in uh our baked burger dynasty league. But when everybody's healthy and Barclays doing what he's doing, like we saw the pitfalls last year. And so yes, AJ Brown's track record suggests one or two missed games. Dallas got his track records suggest three to four missed games. So if those guys are absent, then Devante Smith's numbers pop. But you're taking him

Starting point is 00:09:02 ahead of some other receivers that I certainly rather have. I don't know about you, but I'd rather buy into the upside of what Xavier Worthy could be who's going right after him. I'd rather have Jerry Judy with the potential of what he could be with Joe Flacco. And I'd rather have Travis Hunter, who I think is going to have a standout rookie season even if he's spending too much time playing on defense. So there's just three guys that are going after him that I'd rather have than Devontae Smith. I think he's in that blob. We talk about this a lot, you know, basically wide receiver 20 through 40

Starting point is 00:09:28 You can make a strong case and you can make a pro and con for all these guys to be You know top 20 ish caliber wide receivers So he belongs in this group and he can easily outperform a lot of these guys But I just saw what I saw last year with Barkley there and the other guys staying healthy and Devontae Smith makes me a little Bit nervous. I'd rather draft him as a wide receiver three than what he's being here valued as a wide receiver to. I would definitely take Hunter and worthy over him. I have a feeling I'm not going to be drafting a lot of Jerry Judy. I don't see Flacco starting that many games. I could see

Starting point is 00:10:00 this team having one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL. And I am a Judy guy. I really like him, but at the same time, you know, he, it's mostly because he only caught four touchdowns, but he was wide receiver 30 last year. So he hasn't really done it. That's not, I guess that's might not be fair to say he just had a 1200 yard season. It's pretty good, but he, he hasn't scored a lot of touchdown touchdown his career. He doesn't get a lot of targets in that area I guess that could change I think there I still that but I guess there's still some projection there with Jerry Judy And I don't know that I want to bank on that plus what could be just a horrible mess at quarterback I guess the thing would be is a how many games you think flackle is gonna start and

Starting point is 00:10:44 B do you think if it's Sanders is there there that much of a drop off for Judy? Yes, I think so. I'm not a Sanders guy and I think he could be fine. But as a rookie, it's a lot to ask for. And if it's the other two guys, you know, they Flacco could start zero games. You never know. Right. zero games. You never know. Flacco could start zero games. Look, it's June 20th. So we'll reserve the right to change our opinions. I think as of now, if I had to draft right now, I'm a little too afraid of that Cleveland quarterback situation. I don't think I can make a case though that that Devontae Smith has more non-injury upside than Jerry Judy. He doesn't have big non-injury upside. That's the

Starting point is 00:11:26 problem with Smith. Judy does. But I think he just has a ton of downside too. It's just quarterback related. And the question is, does Cedric Tillman and David Najoku, do those guys matter? How much do they matter for Jerry Judy? Don't know. All right. We'll talk about it some other time. Have an awesome weekend. Thanks to Jamie. Thanks to all of you for watching and listening. This is FFT Express. I'm Adam Azer. See you later.

Fantasy Football Today - These 4 Fantasy Stars Are MASSIVELY Overdrafted! RJ Harvey, Mike Evans, & More! (06/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.