Fantasy Football Today - Tight End Tiers and Apple Podcast Questions (07/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 14, 2022

Vote for us for Best Sports Podcast and Best Male-Hosted Podcast! http://podcastawards.com/app/signup/ It's clear that Dalton Schultz is going to be a controversial name in Fantasy circles this season, and he of course was on today's show. First, we have some tight end trivia (2:40) followed by questions about Heath's tiers. Which tier do Heath and Dan usually draft from (9:40)? Which tier do they avoid (13:24)? Should Schultz have a tier to himself (15:25)? And why is Adam higher on Schultz than Heath and Dan are? ... Adam and Dan compare their Scott Fish Bowl teams and make picks live on the air (26:40)! They are in the same division and have back-to-back picks, so comparing their teams should be interesting. Then we'll give you some news and notes (35:00) ... Back to the tiers! Tier 1 (37:35) is just two players. We talk about Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Then we discuss Tier 2 (40;55), we skip tier 3 as it was covered earlier in the show but we get to Tier 4 (45:50), Tier 5 (55:40) and Tier 6 (58:00). Why is Zach Ertz in Tier 4? Where is Dawson Knox? When do we run out of upside? ... Your Apple Podcast questions (1:04:00) and email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. What's going on, everybody? Welcome to the show on this Thursday morning. We've got another show coming up later tonight on Thursday evening with Liz Loza joining us. You're going to hear that if you subscribe to the audio feed. You're going to hear that on Friday. It's going to be a fun Fantasy Jeopardy episode.

For now, let's talk about... Yeah, yeah. You can come on. a fun Fantasy Jeopardy episode. For now, let's talk about... What? Yeah, yeah. You can come on. I was giving you the day off. I ask all the time to do, and the one day this week that I'm not on, you're playing a game. And you know what happened. He tapped into me for this because he knows my track record of not being great at the Jeopardy, and he wants

to get someone on so he can look a little bit smarter. He can't have Heath on. He's amazing at the Jeopardy. I get it, it adam you're having a rough week we'll get into why in a little bit but i understand what you're doing i really appreciate and would like to further examine your phrasing of the jeopardy well every time people talk about going to the walmart i've never heard the jeopardy our version of jeopardy the Jeopardy. The one time that Adam had me on, but I had no idea what we were playing. I had to go against Heath. I just got wiped. He wiped

the floor with me, and I was like, all right, never put me on this again, please. I have a chance to redeem myself. Don't let Heath tell you how to pronounce things. It hasn't been his specialty this week. Oh, yeah. As soon as the podcast was over, I just realized I said Arch-type.

Not long after, I noticed Jacob looked at me weird when I did. Why is Jacob looking at me like that? And then I realized it afterwards. And then we got a tweet about it. Probably got an email about it. Oh, yeah. Definitely got an email. That's a St. Louis thing.

Everything's just an arch, right? I'm not from St. Louis. But you're close. You're not that far. I'm about the same distance from St. Louis. But you're close. You're not that far. I'm about the same distance from St. Louis. I was about the same distance from St. Louis that I currently am from Tampa or a little further north. Jacksonville?

That's not that close. Okay, so let's talk about tight ends here. We have Apple podcast questions also coming up later on today's show. I have a tight end trivia question for you. Then we'll get into your tiers a little bit. We do have some news items. And Dan and I are in the same Scott Fishbowl League, the Miami, Florida League.

And he has the eighth pick and I have the ninth pick. So I think it would be worthwhile to compare our teams and see who Heath thinks is doing better. I have David Montgomery on my team. Maybe talk about some other things about your league. I have Montgomery, so I know Heath will like my team better just by the Montgomery factor.

Tight end trivia for you. Which tight end has finished top eight in PPR points per game each of the last two seasons, but is not ranked higher than 19th by any of our three analysts? Top eight each of the last

three seasons. Two seasons. Can I look at my rankings or not? I don't think so. Okay. Nobody else is looking at your rankings. Which tight end has finished top eight in PPR points per game each of the last two seasons, but is not ranked higher than 19th by any of our three analysts? Is it Logan

Thomas? It is Logan Thomas. Yeah, that one seems obvious. Okay, well, why isn't he ranked higher than 19th? Dave has him 19th. I think Heath has him 24th. How many games did he play last year? So he played six, but actually the points per game is only based on five games

because he played five snaps, I think, in the sixth game. So he was not technically... If someone went and sorted on a different site that was not an Adam Azer site and looked at the fantasy points per game last year, he would not be a top eight tight end by fantasy points per game. If you looked on FFToday.com, which is where I always look, then he would be because they don't count that game because he didn't have any stats. This is a classic example of an Azer stat gone wrong.

An Azer stat gone wrong. He played five snaps. You're going to count that wrong. He played five snaps. You're going to count that game? He played five snaps. No, what I'm saying, this is a good use of Acer stats, and this is appropriate, but if this were a Jeopardy question,

your answer would be factually incorrect. Well, first of all, it would have to be asked, the answer would have to be in the form of a question, and secondly, we say the Jeopardy now. But, actually, well, the reason why, you know you know i use that site fftoday.com and that's the reason why i saw oh he finished eighth last year then i realized i said wait a second did he finish even higher because he had this one game with five snaps and they had already accounted for that but but the bottom line is in those five games he had 196 yards and three touchdowns on 25 targets so that's interesting and the year before

that he was uh fourth per game in ppr sixth and a half ppr ninth in full ppr a ninth and non-ppr pardon me uh oh no i switched that around i'm sorry that was his final season uh stats not his per game in 2020 per game he was sixth in full ppr eighth in half PPR, and 11th in non-PPR. But it's two fantasy-relevant years in a row, even though a very abridged one for Logan Thomas. So, Heath, you thinking about maybe moving him into tier five or tier six? He's 31 years old.

He has one season in his NFL career with more than 200 yards receiving. And to show you how small the sample size was last year, I went just to a different site, Football Guys, to look at where he ranked in terms of PPR fantasy points per game last year. And if you include the sixth game, he is 18th. Why would you include the sixth game? That was one sixth of his production being five snaps.

It's an illustration of how small the sample size of him being top five last year, or top eight last year was. But he averaged 40 yards per game. So that's not that bad. That changes everything. That's not that bad for a tight end. That puts him in the low-end tight end range. Right?

I'm not saying he's a top five guy or a top eight guy, but if he can average 40 yards per game, then he's probably a stream streamable tight end. I think that some of that value is because of who the quarterbacks that he played with and the car, the target competition that he had at that point versus what he has now after adding dots into the mix. And, you know, especially with the quarterbacks that he had versus the quarterbacks that he has now in Wentz. Wentz is not willing to target the seam as much as those other quarterbacks. So I just don't – to me, I feel like he's going to fall off. I don't want to sit here and make a big case for Logan Thomas. It feels like you want to. I think I'm going to put him on my Scott Fishbowl queue.

I think – you know, I don't know if we have a queue. We do, right? You definitely don't have a queue. You've spent 20 hours on the clock. You certainly don't have a queue. Your league mates would if you would just join the Twitter chat for your league, they could probably

explain to you how to use a queue. They've been begging to get Azar on the chat, and all he got was, guys, sorry, I didn't do a good job of catching up and hanging in with these chats. I'm not going to join. He's the only one in our league not on the chat, by the way. He's too good for the chat. He's the only one in SFP that's too good for the chat.

And my league is in the chat. And we have probably 100 chats per day. And it's really been good stuff. We've raised money for charity. We let people know when they're on the clock so they don't use 20 hours to make their first six picks adam's not interested in any of that um charity the best thing though are you and i don't know if you guys saw this or not but i'm also there's also a chat for your draft position and it's been really beneficial beneficial talking strategy with people who all have the same pick um but twitter chats only allow 75 people in one chat. And there's more than 75

people with the 12th pick, which is unfortunate for the few people who wanted to be in and weren't allowed to. We've constantly been at 75. We had an opening come up a day or two ago because someone who was in our chat made the error of saying who they'd picked from the 11 spot this person had somehow joined the 12s chat to get a good idea what all the 12s were talking about to better help him make picks on either side of the 12 in his draft dirty that is done i like that i would be fantastic he got kicked out of the group, but I applaud him. It's much better than not even joining your own league chat. No, it's not better than not joining.

It's deceitful. I wouldn't do it. All right, so listen. Let's talk about our tight end tiers. These are Heath's tight end tiers. I'm displaying them now for those of you on YouTube. You can see the first five tiers. There are a couple more that we're going to get into.

No, just six today. So you can see the first five tiers. There are a couple more that we're going to get into. No, just six today. So you can see the first five. You'll see tier six shortly. Logan Thomas is in tier five. What are you talking about? Oh, wow. I didn't realize that. And neither did you. Well, are you going to move him up into your rankings if he's

24th? He's not 24th on this page. Oh, wow. This would put him about 19th or so. But, all right. No, this has him at 22nd. No, it's counting. All right.

You know what? There will be a rankings update tomorrow, and it's possible that Logan Thomas will move into my top 20 tight ends. Okay, good. Just kidding. He is at 19th. Thank you. That was bad counting.

Thank you, Schneier. All right, looking at Heath's first five tiers here, and if you're just listening, you're not watching, don't worry, I'll go through everything, but which tier do you usually draft from at tight end and who's in that tier for the benefit of the people who are not looking at it right now? Heath, which tier do you usually draft from?

I would say probably one is the most common, followed closely by, not followed closely, but then it would be a close battle between four and then probably three right after four. Okay. And tier one is Kelsey and Andrews. I don't know if I've drafted in tier two once all year. So Kelsey and Andrews is tier one. Tier two is Waller, Pitts, and tier one is Kelsey Andrews. I don't know if I've drafted in tier two once all year. So Kelsey Andrews is tier one. Tier two is Waller, Pitts, and Kittle. So that's your big five.

And tier one is Kelsey Andrews in the next three. Tier three for Heath is Schultz, Goddard, and Hawkinson. And then tier four are guys like Ertz, Erb, Smith, Komet, Everett, Fryer, Muth, Kosicki. I know it's a lot of names. I'll repeat them. But Heath is usually in the Kelsey Andrews tier, or he's waiting until...

The tier four guys are going to be round nine or later, probably, in a 12-team league. Maybe Earth sneaks into round eight or something, but... I think I might just change tier one to great and tier four and five to late. That's kind of my strategy, is I like to go great or late.

Of course. Dan, which tier do you usually draft from at tight end? Yeah, I think Heath nailed this. I also like to go great or late. I've been a big proponent of drafting Travis Kelsey the last few years. I feel like he gives you a massive advantage at the position on a weekly basis. This year, I'm actually off Kelsey. I think that Tyreek Hill played a big factor in opening up the middle of the field. I know they still have those guys who run fast, but I don't think they're going to command the same kind of attention. I've seen myself drafting a lot of Mark Andrews. I think Mark Andrews is going to be tight end one this year.

And I see myself drafting a lot of Zach Ertz, Gerald Everett, and Cole Komet. So really it is great or late for me as well. But I don't know why you're laughing. I thought that was a good name. It's a great name, especially considering I made it up, but I'm wondering if I can start suing you guys every time you say it. Remember there was that three-peat thing with Pat Riley, or he coined that,

and I feel like there's some potential litigation in the future here. I also think Heath's ahead of the time. A lot of people I still see ranking Friermuth and Gusecki way ahead of Everett and Komet. I'm with Heath. I think Everett and Komet should be ahead. So I think these are just a really good set of rankings, personally, but I don't think they adhere completely to ADP.

I see a lot of people drafting some of those other guys ahead of guys that Heath has ranked higher, and they should. I also would put Ertz a little bit higher, personally. In my Scott Fishbowl draft, I'm pretty sure Gusecki went ahead of both Goddard and Hawkinson. There you go. So, you're a huge kiss-ass, by the way. But anyway, which...

No, they're just good rankings. Which tiers... Adam, have I ever kissed your butt on this show? Will I ever? Don't think anybody wants that to happen. So, I'm actually just looking for the first time. I don't know why I haven't looked at this of what, what Travis Kelsey did without Tyree kill three years ago,

2019. So it was a four games. I don't know if we want to count week one, Tyree kill only played 12 snaps. We can count that one. Uh, but the production for kelsey was i mean it was good it wasn't amazing let's see week one he had 88 yards week, he had 89 yards.

Week four, 85 yards. Week five, 70 yards. That's pretty good. That is pretty good. But, I mean, a lot of that was also fact. That's not the only factor that scares me. The age is obviously also a factor here. Okay, yeah.

Which tier do you usually avoid, Heath? Tier two. That would be the Waller-Pitts-Kittel tier. How usually avoid, Heath? Tier two. That would be the Waller-Pitts-Kittle tier. How about you, Dan? It's players for me. I won't draft Kittle this year. I won't be drafting Schultz at all this year. I probably won't be drafting Pitts because he's drafted a little too high for me.

But I do like Goddard and Hawkinson out of that third tier. So it's just players for me. So it sounds like you're not drafting in tier two, though. No, I end up with Waller a good amount. Waller falls, yeah. Okay. I like Waller. And I would be fine with Waller, Kittle, or Pitts. No, I shouldn't say Pitts because he never does,

but occasionally Waller or Kittle falls into round five, and then I'm good with it. I'm not taking any of those guys in the first four rounds. I agree with Heath on that minus Kittle, though, for me. Dan, did you grow up or go to college with a guy named Andrew Tague? Andrew Tague?

No. Why? Because he just chatted. He just commented in our chat, Dan Schneier is a genius. I have a lot more fans than you'd imagine, Adam. You'll see as we go on. We're starting to see the comments flow in. When you put that tweet out the other day, just trying to bash me and defame me, there were a lot of people who stood up for me. And you know what? You saw it in the replies. And we're going to get up to that tweet a little bit later because you've been really rocked on it since. A lot has happened since. We've probably got 30 minutes before we get to that, Dan, or at least 20. No.

I think you have plenty of time to take the YouTube link that Adam tweeted out to promote this show and paste it in the chat of your Miami, Florida, Scott Fishbowl division. And hopefully we can get a few of those participants in the YouTube chat so that when we have the discussion, we can have a little bit of their feedback about the performance of Adam in this draft as well. I think that's a great idea, Heath, especially because he's not really liked in that chat. All right. Last question for you.

Can you just let the listeners know real quick what's going on with that? Adam refused to join the SFB chat for our division. He's the only one not in the chat. Let's just make that clear for the listeners. This is very clear then. Last question about tiers. Isn't Dalton Schultz a one-man tier and aren't one-man tiers great,

Heath? I generally avoid one-man tiers, although I think you could say that Deshaun Watson should be a one-man tier or Alvin Kamara should be a one-man tier although like i think you could say that deshaun watson should be a one-man tier or alvin camara should be a one-man tier um some people would say jonathan taylor should be a one-man tier travis kelsey has been a one-man tier in the past uh i man i'm conflicted it's kind of been hate on dalton schultz week on twitter this week so So your, your praise of him will be a needed change,

but I just think like looking at what he did last year, I don't know that I really believe he can be better than that. Agreed. And what that was, was three tenths of a point better than TJ Hawkinson and about a point per game better than Dallas Goddard, but that's almost entirely because he scored eight touchdowns on 800 yards receiving,

and Goddard scored four touchdowns on 800 yards receiving. So I have a hard time making a case for separation between Dalton Schultz and those other two guys. Now, I think Dan would even put him behind those guys. I wouldn't go quite that far, but I'd have a hard time making a case for him definitely being better than those guys. I would actually keep him above Goddard but behind Hawkinson. But the issue for me is more, I think Heath has it right here. He has them all in one tier.

But you're seeing Schultz drafted ahead of those two guys too often by a large margin, and he's almost creeping up from an ADP standpoint into Tier 2. That's where I have a problem with Dalton Schultz. Yeah, I can see that. So Tier 3 for Heath is Schultz, Goddard, Hawkinson. Obviously, I very much prefer Schultz out of this tier. I think he is in a separate tier

because I think, you know, maybe going into the off season, maybe in February, I could see this being a three person tier, but Goddard situation to me has gotten worse. Hawkinson situation to me is probably worse. It depends, I guess, on Jamison Williams. But even DJ Chark could be an upgrade over what they've had. And Amonra St. Brown has emerged since the last time we saw TJ Hawkinson on the field. Schultz's situation has clearly gotten better to me. So, you know, losing Cooper,

Gallup coming back from a torn ACL, and he's going to be on, in my opinion, clearly the most prolific passing offense between him, Goddard, and Hawkinson. It's not even going to be close. They might lead the league in pass attempts. So he doesn't have... Why exactly would the Cowboys lead the league in pass attempts?

Because they've done it once under Kellen Moore. Right, but they did it when the defense was in shambles. You know, I'm not really sure. I'm not sure how good their defense is going to be. They were a defense that was very, very turnover-reliant last year, and those defenses, you can set I'm not really sure. I'm not sure how good their defense is going to be. They were a defense that was very, very turnover reliant last year. And those defenses, you can set a clock to it. They always regress. But they also have maybe the best young.

They do have. They do have potentially one of the best young quarterback cornerbacks in the NFL. He's he's interesting. He gets beat a lot. He makes a lot of boomer bust. He is boomer bust. I wanted to see if you were going to be able to call that out. But you did a good job with that.

Don't quiz me on this, okay? But no, but that's just Kellen Moore's nature. So I just think that his situation moves him, Dolan Schultz's situation, to me, moves him clearly ahead of Goddard and Hawkinson. I think these three are a great, great, great test of my theory that for the most part, wide receiver additions and subtractions

impact other wide receivers. Yes. And tight end buckets within an offense that can be changed a little bit, but are often unchanged by changes to the rest. Now, we'll see how that works out this year. We'll also see with Waller, how much Devontae Adams,

like I'm far more concerned about what Adams will do to Hunter Renfro than I am Adams to Waller. Same. So it will be a good test of that. Yeah, but he doesn't have to be better than he was last season, Dalton Schultz, you know? He was fifth per game. And he had 104 targets.

I guess if you're going to take him in round five, he has to be better. If you're going to take him in round six, I don't think he does have to be better because I still think he'll be a big advantage over most of the other tight ends drafted behind him. I do think that you're going to see... What do you mean by big advantage? See, that's the problem, yeah.

Big advantage, it might not necessarily show up in the points per game, but in, I would guess... And I probably won't care about it. No, but you should, because here's the problem with the tight ends that finish behind him. All right, and before I make this point, let me just look up some of the names that I'm talking about. And I just want to, while you're looking that up,

I want to say he does have to be better in terms of volume or yardage efficiency, because it's very likely that his touchdown rate is going to regress. He had almost an 8% touchdown rate last year, and that's just not something that... Now, Jared Cook had a two or three-year stretch where he did it, and Gronk did it all the time. And it's possible that he has another 8% touchdown here. But I think it's more fair to project something closer to 6.5. So he probably needs to pick up an extra point per game

in catches and yards to match his points per game from last year. Okay, so for the record, Dalton Schultz averaged as many points per game as Darren Waller last year. Okay, so for the record, Dalton Schultz averaged as many points per game as Darren Waller last year. And he was, let's see, almost two points per game better than

Kyle Pitts, 1.6 points per game better than Zach Ertz, and very close to TJ Hawkinson, as Heath mentioned, only 0.3 points per game in full PPR better than TJ Hawkinson, who had a lot of catches, 83 catches in 12 games. But here's why it matters,

Heath. Here's what I mean by he'll be better than the guys behind him. You do not have 12 must-start tight ends, ever. You'll probably have 6 or 7, and then most of the league is streaming. So, yeah, sure. You could look at, say, Hunter Henry, who

averaged 10.3 points per game. But what an inconsistent player. And what a guy who was so touchdown dependent. You get so many of those tight ends where they might just be awful. Dalton Schultz is going to be... They might be awful some weeks. They might be good some weeks. But it depends if they catch that touchdown.

Dalton Schultz will be one of the last tight ends drafted who I think will be a slam dunk, must-start tight end where you don't have to even worry about tight end. You think that Goddard and Hawkinson will be streamers? I think they have the potential to be streamers because Dallas Goddard, when Zach Ertz was there, averaged something like four targets per game. When Zach Ertz was there, and they were throwing the ball a lot then. Now they've got a year two Devontae Smith, and they just brought in A.J. Brown, who's certainly going to command more targets than Zach Ertz did.

I do have an Acer stats correction. But Acer, we don't... Oh, yeah, go ahead first, Steve. We need an Acer stats correction because we started the show with Logan Thomas and Acer statting his way to a top eight title. Darren Waller was two fantasy points per game better than Dalton Schultz last year

until the game that he played 24% of the snaps. Where does he find these stats? What? I said, where does Azar find these stats? They're just getting debunked left and right here. No, stop. Okay. But Adam, your whole argument there didn't address Heath and Heath's concern, which is basically my main concern too.

Touchdown regression is one of the stickiest things. That's one of the things we can count on most year after year. And you didn't, you just talked about it with Dalton Schultz, just over a hundred targets, his slot snap percentage, his slot snaps, not that high, his average depth of target, not that high. So he does rely on those. Last year, his scoring did rely a lot on those touchdowns and that high touchdown percentage. He could easily play more in the slot this year. Now that CeeDee Lamb is going to be playing outside in Amore Cooper spot, right? So Cooper was playing outside, and when Gallup was on the field, CeeDee Lamb was largely in the slot. I'm not counting on that to be sick.

I think that is going to happen. Mike McCarthy said that CeeDee Lamb is going to play Amari Cooper's role. We will see if that continues all throughout the season, considering how good Lamb was in the slot. No, he was better out wide. He was more productive out wide. I know, on a person-at-basis, yes. So why would that change? Because two years ago, when you put him in the slot, there was no one who could cover him in the NFL in the slot. Two years ago? What, the five games that Dak Prescott played?

He wasn't good after that. Yeah, but Dak Prescott was throwing 52 times per game in that stretch. And he was unguardable in the slot. It's hard to defend Lamb on a two-way. They're going to put him outside. They it was unguardable in the slot. It's hard to, it's hard to defend. They're going to put him outside. They said they're going to put him out. I know, but I just think they're going to mix him in,

in the slot. Still, we'll tell on that one. We'll check that in and around week six, they might, but obviously there's an opportunity for more slot snaps. Okay. Sure. So I don't look,

I don't want to overthink it here. I know Dalton Schultz isn't some, so he's not as talented as the five guys ranked ahead of him. Kelsey, Andrews, Waller, Pinskittle. I don't think he's as talented as Goddard or Hawkinson either. I don't think he's anywhere close to Goddard or Hawkinson. And I think you can make a case that Colt Comet is more talented than Schultz and may have more target opportunities. I don't understand this talent that's been assigned to Dallas Goddard.

I mean – Really? Yeah. Do you watch him play? Do you see the production? I mean this guy has been – has had a very overrated career. He's in a run-first offense right now. I think I understand.

Okay, so then that's what I'm saying. He's in a run-first offense. But the last 10 games of the year, did not catch a single touchdown pass from Jalen Hurts. He had a huge game with two touchdowns from Gardner Minshew. So I just think that Dallas Goddard has been assigned this value that he hasn't lived up to. And Hawkinson.

Goddard had the fifth most yards after the catch last year of all tight ends. Gerald Everett had a lot of yards after the catch. I like Gerald Everett. I like Gerald Everett a lot this year. You, Dan, more than anyone, were dumping on TJ Hawkinson last year, right? Because of exactly what we just discussed earlier in this podcast. But you have said that.

The replacement value. When you start to push the Schultz and Hawkinsons up into round five, which is where they're starting to go, and creeping even higher. I'm not taking him in round five. That's what happened with Hawkinson last year, and that's what we're starting to see with Schultz this year. That's what we're so against. Yeah, I agree with that.

I don't know that Dan was poo-pooing Hawkinson as much as anybody last year. I think I was. I mean, I had to say poo-pooing Hawkinson as much as anybody last year. I think I was, I mean, I had to say something mean about TJ Hawkinson every preseason show we did because he was being drafted ahead of Mark Andrews for a while. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, well, Dalton Schultz still has a sixth-round ADP, and TJ Hawkinson is going basically the same exact ADP as Dalton Schultz, 66th overall.

Dallas Goddard's at 83rd overall. But I do think just it's the pass volume and the prolific pass offense that I'm buying into for Schultz. I agree with that part. And just to go back to the, like, I think you would admit if Dalton Schultz were to change places with Dallas Goddard or TJ Hawkinson, if those guys were traded for each other, whoever was traded to Dallas would be drafted two to three rounds ahead of

Dalton Schultz. All of a sudden one, one million percent. Okay. Absolutely. It's, it's not Dalton Schultz is so great. It's that I think he is going to be a must start tight end because of

volume. I am on the clock in the Scott fish bowl. Oh, once again never stopped you before yeah uh how often how often have we looked oh yeah we should do this now because i have a pick and dan has his dan picks right after me so uh i could i could share my screen here should i do that yes let's talk let's give the listeners a little bit of background on what what went down in the scott fishbow in our division. Should I do that, Adam?

Should I recap? Yeah, sure. Hold on. Go for it here. I got to do a little screenshot. Scott Fishbowl. Obviously, everyone knows what it is. Me and Adam drafting in the same division.

Pick after each other. The Scott Fishbowl starts on Monday. I'm still on vacation. I have two more days left of vacation. So you know what? I take my time with my picks because I didn't see the notifications. I'm not by my phone. I'm enjoying my vacation.

Adam knows I'm on vacation. Anyway. You've been on vacation for three weeks, by the way. No, it was an eight-day vacation and the only one I took this year. So let's make that clear. But I see a tweet in the middle of the vacation toward the end from Adam Azer just absolutely destroying me for taking so long, taking 11 hours combined for my picks, only to find out one day later, Adam nearly clocks out of his pick. And then we look today, and Adam has taken 20 hours to make his picks,

while I've only taken 11. So all of that, we throw it out, we put it out there into the ether, and then finally, the icing on the cake here, Adam refused to join our division chat. It has 11 of the 12 members. He's too good for the division chat. And by the way, in this division chat, me and Adam are getting absolutely roasted on a daily basis.

They're like, oh, back to the CBS, guys. Guess we're going to have to wait 10 hours again for a pick. Yeah, go ahead. I do think we should think about this. The Scott Fish Bowl started at approximately this time on Monday. So it's been 72 hours, if my math's correct right and i think we've decided that the time when the clock's off doesn't count against your time right which is i think six hours a day which would mean it's been about 54 hours that this draft's been going on, that the clock's been running.

And I believe what I saw is that 31 of those 54 hours, you or Adam has been on the clock. So over half of this draft, they've been waiting on you or Adam to make a pick. I think they are well within their rights to be complaining about how long you guys are taking to pick. All right, well, I'm going to make a pick now. I can't disagree with that. I do want to point out, once again, Adam has taken almost double,

nearly double the time that I've taken. All right, so let's make some picks. So I have, I'll show you all my lineup. I have Trey Lance and Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts and Trey Lance are quarterback. This is a super flex league. It's a tight end premium league where tight end scoring is basically double.

They get a full point for a catch, a full point for a first down. Everyone else gets a half a point for a catch, half a point for a first down. Quarterbacks get a half a point for a rushing first down, but completion percentage matters too. So Hurts and Lance are an interesting duo. I have David Montgomery and J.K. Dobbins at running back,

and I have Chris Godwin at wide receiver. Travis Kelsey was my first pick. He's my tight end. I think you should find some week one starters. That's what you should be looking for. No, I'm basically just kind of going for it, right? I mean, I'm hoping Dobbins and Godwin don't end up on the pup list. Godwin on my team, Godwin and DeAndre Hopkins paired up,

but I took them in round seven and round 10 or 11. You know what they always say. If you can draft players who are injured and might not start the season, you might as well do it, right? I'm going to take DK back half. I don't have him on any teams. Oh, my God.

Gross. You're gross. What round are you in? Seven. Seven. I'm on the chris towers train i think there's going to be weeks we're like are we should we start dk metcalf over russell gage against x and x or whatever i agree i don't know that there's a wide receiver we're gonna have a rough time with metcalf this year i think yeah but look at the wide receivers that are left metcalf alan robinson amari cooper darnell mooney it's i'm picking after you, so I'm certainly not giving my opinion. This is where he goes.

I could take Jerry Judy. No, no. Please take DK Metcalf. I am going to take DK Metcalf. Thank you. Thank you. They might get Jimmy Garoppolo, and then you're going to regret not having DK Metcalf. Yeah, I'll certainly regret it.

All right, Dan, you're on the clock now. So let's see. What's your team? So let me make it clear for the Fishbowl. I always have a similar strategy. It's boom or bust. I don't draft this to look good in my league by competing for a seven and five or eight and four record.

I'm looking to go for it because this is a large field tournament and you need to take a very high variance approach. So I took a very, very high variance approach with my team by going Kyler Murray in the first round, not a very high variance pick, but Derek Henry in round two, very high variance pick. I think there's still potential outcomes where he could be RB one. Um, I'm not buying into the age factor here yet. I think that he's coming back healthy. And then I went with Trevor Lawrence only because I was sniped by you for Trey Lance. That's I see a big drop off after Trey Lance at that pick. It was your

best pick of the draft Adam. But then I continued a high variance route by going Javante Williams and cam acres, both players who I think have a path towards a lot of volume and have a path towards a high score, a high finish. And then in round six, I'm a big believer in stacking. So I went Marquise Brown over a few receivers I had ranked higher because I already have Kyler Murray on the roster. OK, you don't have a tight end, though, and that's a problem. Yeah. Are there any tight ends left?

I've been missing. Not really. I've been missing out. No, Dallas. Yeah. Dallas Goddard. Is he still on the not really. I've been missing out. No, Dallas Goddard. Yeah, Dallas Goddard. Is he still on the board? Yeah, he's still on the board. If you like him, you should take him.

I missed out on Hawkinson. I don't think I could see myself taking Goddard right now over some of the receivers that are on the board, though I do like Goddard. All right, so I took Metcalf, and you slammed me for it. So let's see which wide receiver you prefer here. Well, I'm leaning toward either Jerry Judy or Allen Robinson here for sure with this pick, and I would take them over.

I would take both of them over DK Metcalf. Judy was my second pick there. Yeah. Gabriel Davis. So we still have Amari Cooper, Darnell Mooney, Rashad Bateman, Alan Robinson, Jerry Judy, Gabriel Davis, Adam Thielen, and Juju Smith-Schuster.

Michael Thomas was another guy I was considering. There's actually a lot of good receivers left on the board. I'm surprised you weren't considering Devante Smith for the stack purposes, but it might be a little too early. He is still available in round 12 of my draft. There you go. So that's probably not a good idea. I'm either going with one of those two receivers or Goddard.

I just need to take a quick look at these tight ends after Goddard to see how bad it's going to be. No, actually, I see someone I actually like more than Goddard. I just need to make sure, take a quick look at these tight ends after Goddard to see how bad it's going to be. No, actually I see someone I actually like more than Goddard in fantasy that I don't, that I think will still be on the board. So I'm going to wait there.

Adam really should have taken Goddard. Yeah. I don't like him. I'm off Goddard. I'd rather have Dawson Knox later. We're in later. This is round seven of a tight end premium draft. I'd rather have DK Metcalf.

Are we going up? Are we going back toward the back end of the draft right now? We are. We're not picking for a while. No, we're not picking for a while. Oof. Let's go, Schneier. This is why people hate us.

No, no, this is not. He's been on the clock for like two minutes. Yeah, this is going to help my time a lot. You guys took two minutes. This is going to help my time a lot. You guys took two minutes. This is going to help my time a lot if I don't take a player here. Let's go a little further into the show. I need to think a little bit on this. Oh, my gosh.

Okay, we're going to take a commercial break. When we come back, we're going to give you some quick news items and then finish up with the tight end tears on Fantasy Football today. What does possible sound like for your business? then finish up with the tight end tiers on Fantasy Football today. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. All right, Dan Schneier is still on the clock after that commercial break, which, you know, was a minute long if you're listening, but was only three seconds long, if you're viewing. Some news and notes real quick. Rob Gronkowski insists he is done with football,

even if Tom Brady calls him, he is done. Chicago acquired Nikhil Harry from the New England Patriots. I love this time of year. There's really not a lot of news. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, according to the Panthers GM, Scott Fitterer, they are going to compete for the starting job. I don't think we buy that, or that we buy that Darnold, according to the Panthers GM, Scott Fitterer, they are going to compete for the starting job. I don't think we buy that. Or that we buy

that Darnold has a chance. Dallas rookie wide receiver Jalen Tolbert will enter training camp as a presumed starter, according to The Athletic. He's getting some real buzz. I saw Harmon actually liked his profile a lot as well. I'm getting more

interested in Jalen Tolbert. All right, and Gabriel Davis weighs 227 pounds, so he has put on some weight. How do you feel about that? He ate Najee Harris. He's still less than Najee Harris, but how do you feel about that? Does that matter to you, Gabriel Davis gaining weight?

I have a hard time understanding the case for Gabriel Davis as this super high upside borderline number two wide receiver anyway. So, um, yeah. Okay. And that's why I like, uh,

Dawson Knox more than most people. It's just everyone, everyone, just not everyone, but so many people just assume Gabriel Davis is going to step into that role. But why not Dawson? Not Dawson Knox is not going to be the number two target.

But why can't he have a big target boost? Okay. Adam, I don't think, let's see. I'm trying to make my pick and it's telling me I'm not on the clock. Never mind. Here we go. All right. All right. So what you do adam you select a player and then you total minutes are you picked let's see what the pick is okay see so i'm not seeing it

what'd you pick who'd you pick you're not seeing it jerry judy oh jerry judy okay okay just keep scrolling adam scroll down please just Just for the listeners in case anybody keep going. Keep going. Yeah, I'm here. 20 hours for me and 11 hours for Dan. And nobody else in your league is. Now there's one person at nine hours, so that's something. Thank you.

I think a lot of that was overnight for me. No, they don't count the overnight. We've already established that. They don't count all of the overnight, but they do count some of it. So let's go back to the tiers. Tier one is Kelsey and Andrews. They are, you know, you could take,

you could go as early as the first round for these guys. Heath, you think they're both top 13, right? Yes. Yeah, they're definitely top 15. In PPR leagues. Half PPR, a little lower. Non-PPR, they're back in around two. So, Dan, you rank Andrews ahead of Kelsey? Not quite yet. I still have Kelsey higher, but I did a little research into tight ends last night before the show, and that's what really put me a little extra research into tight ends.

That's what put me back on the Andrews train. And I almost now regret I had a chance for Andrews or Henry in round two of the SFB. And then, you know, that's a little bit deeper. It's mid round two, but I thought Henry has more league winning upside,

but I don't know, looking more into just exactly what Andrews did last year, leading the league in slot snaps was really important. Leading the league for tight ends. I mean, as far as, you know, after, sorry, league after kyle pitts in average depth of target not including rob gronkowski who's not coming back and just the overall volume there as well because of all the slot snaps i think he has a chance for to really pace the field at tight

end this year if we see any kind of drop off at all with kelsey via his age or just not having hill okay they were i don't know i don't want to get into this i guess because we do it so often any kind of drop-off at all with Kelsey via his age or just not having Hill. Okay. They were... I don't know. I don't want to get into this, I guess, because we do it so often. But... Are you not an Andrews fan? Is that why?

A little concerned about the pass volume going way down. Why would it go way down? Oh, because the offense is so run-heavy? Yeah, yeah. If they go back to what they were the previous two seasons. And I'm also... I'm not concerned about this. I think it's probably a little fluky, but his numbers,

his target share was something like 22% with Lamar Jackson and 23% with Lamar Jackson and 29.4% without Lamar Jackson. He was on pace for 136 targets with Jackson and 184 targets without Jackson. He was on pace for over 1,700 yards without Lamar Jackson. He was on pace for less than 1,200 yards, 1,141 with Jackson. I do not

really care about that. Do you care about that? I know you don't. You said with Jackson are all elite for a tight end. He would have been... Yes. Okay.

All right. So, ready? His 11 games with Lamar Jackson. 17 game paces, 87 catches, 1,141 yards, 8 touchdowns on 136 targets. Look at that in points per game. Would have made him the number 2

tight end in fantasy behind Kelsey. But it would have made him... This two tight end in fantasy behind Kelsey, but it would have made him, this is big to me, the number 20 wide receiver per game. Whereas Travis Kelsey is always a top 12 wide receiver per game. So yes, those are great numbers for a tight end. No, they are not top 15 overall pick. Those are very close to my my projections except that i have 10 touchdowns instead of eight and the reason for that discrepancy would be the fact that lamar jackson just had an incredibly bad touchdown season compared to what he's been every other year in the league

yeah there's a good chance for positive touchdown regression not just for jackson but for andrews i agree with heath on that okay let's go to the second tier then. We haven't gotten a lot of love for this tier. Such talented players though. Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, and George Kittle. That's the tier for Heath. If you're watching on YouTube, I hope you can see that clearly. Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, and George Kittle. Anything to say about this tier, Heath?

I do still think, like I said, this is the tier I don't draft that this is also the end of the area where I think you could find a tight end one without just something really strange happening it's Darren Waller and Devonta Adams could both dominate targets and Hunter Renfro could get left out in the rain and Waller could find his way back to tight end one kyle pitts i suppose it's possible that marcus mariota could be good enough to carry him to a tight end one season um and like so the san francisco something different happens all the time if they come out and george kittle's a 25 target share guy and brandon iukes a 20 target share guy and debo samuel is running the ball eight times a game ge George Kittle could be tied in one so these are the last three guys who could legitimately be tied in one does it matter to you that Waller wasn't really that good when Henry Ruggs was there I mean he

was good but because I'm just saying you know his season kind of took off after the Ruggs incident and now you got Devonta Adams coming in. So I think one thing that we haven't discussed a lot about Waller, which is why I like him, and I haven't heard it much, is the addition of Josh McDaniels in that offense. We've seen Josh McDaniels at times, and the Patriots utilize tight ends

and get the most out of those tight ends. That's going to help. He's going into a system that's going to be very tight end friendly for him. And I think there's going to be a lot more easy targets for him. But that's not to say there weren't in the him. I think there's going to be a lot more easy targets for him, but that's not to say there weren't in the past, but a lot of it I thought was driven by just not having that much

talent around him and the offense kind of revolving around Waller. I don't think that's going to be the case with Adams on the roster, but this is a tight and friendly offense, and that's going to help Waller, I think, overall. Did Ruggs not play week one, I guess, either? No, he was great in week one. He had 20 targets, right?

He played that one, yeah. Yeah, but then after that, he was... Ruggs was on the team in 2020 as well, right? But he started to emerge in 2021. He started to get more targets and be a better player, and he wasn't even close to what Devontae Adams... Look, I was just asking if that mattered to you. No, I really don't like it when you bring it up.

All right, but I think it's the only time he's been on the field with a guy who was even close to a wide receiver. Well, I guess you could say Renfro. But I don't know, because Renfro took off also after the Ruggs incident. You know, Renfro. I would say, overall, I would say Ruggs had an impact on the production of both Hunter Renfro and Darren Moore. How many weeks was that?

Six. Okay. All right. Let's kind of skip tier three. No, actually, I have a follow-up question on tier two. Dan, going back to a year ago, I think you had some concerns about how George Kittle would fit in a Trey Lance-led offense. We never really saw it, although the target share,

I think Dave brought it up, was pretty low for Kittle when Lance played. There wasn't much, though. I think it was a game and a half, six quarters, basically. But, yeah, you still have those concerns? Yeah, that was actually the nicest thing you ever said about me. A few shows ago, I wasn't on it, but I was listening, and Adam was like, yeah, Dan Schneier brought this up last and and and this is when dave was breaking down his concerns for heat uh for a kid also thank you so much but yeah those concerns remain for me i think the offense

is going to look a lot different overall this year once lance is installed as a full-time starter we're going to see more zone read that's not something we've seen a lot with jimmy grapple you can't really run zone read with jimmy grapple and one thing we've known we've known from shanahan over the years is he is willing to adjust his system to the personnel he's had around him. He's done that a great job of that with, with Kyle Usec. Um, and I think with Lance, we're going to see that. So I don't, I think the first read will be the X receiver a lot more often based on them playing more zone read, and that's going to be probably Iuke. Uh, so I actually am a little higher on him than most, but as far as Kittle goes, there's so many concerns I have.

It's the offensive system. It's losing Jimmy Garoppolo and the rapport he had with him. And overall, it's the total volume of the passing game that I think will go down there. And that doesn't even factor in the injury concerns with Kittle. So he's a player I haven't found myself drafting at all. Okay. And that was a very adorable pronunciation of Juszczyk.

You almost got that there. I knew it was. Is there an archetype pronunciation of Juszczyk. You almost got that there. I knew it was Juszczyk. Is there an archetype of Kyle Juszczyk? Don't you hate when you're about to say someone's name and you're two seconds before, I don't know how to pronounce this name right? Yes. You saw me pause before saying it.

Yeah, what I often do is just say it confidently one way and then try to work it into my sentence again in like 30 seconds and say it a slightly different way. So that way people just mispronounced it one of the other times. All right. Tier three is Schultz, Goddard and Hawkinson. Heath is already established. He no longer thinks these guys have tight end one upside. And I think we have spent enough time on this tier.

Schultz, Goddard and Hawkinson. Tier four is Zach Ertz, Herb Smith, Gerald Everett, Cole Komet, Pat Fryermuth, and Mike Gasicki. Zach Ertz, Herb Smith, Gerald Everett, Cole Komet, Pat Fryermuth, and Mike Gasicki. First question for you, Heath, is how come Ertz is

in this tier and not the tier above with Schultz, Goddard, and Hawkinson? I thought he was washed when he left Philly. And he went to Arizona and got to play without DeAndre Hopkins in a high-volume pass offense and really did some things that changed my mind. But I am worried their wide receiver one will be Marquise Brown, and he will be there week one.

And then by the time we get to week seven, we might have Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. And prior to last year, this wasn't an offense that really used their tight end very much. He played a lot more in Arizona than he did in Philadelphia. In six games with the Eagles, he played more than 64% of the snaps

only once. In 11 games with the Cardinals, he played 73% or more of the snaps in 10 of 11 games. And he was playing 90% or more of the snaps by the end of the season. So yes, they do like him. And he did not catch a lot of touchdowns with the Cardinals. But I do think he had a lot of... Yeah, from week 7 through 18, he had the 10th most red zone targets

and the 4th most goal-to-go targets in the NFL. There was very little DeAndre Hopkins there. But you don't see it in the touchdown numbers. He had a terrible touchdown rate, but he got a lot, again, the fourth most goal-to-go targets in the NFL from week seven through 18. I think that was all of his tenure with Arizona. And his, his offense is one that we still have at least some minor red zone or touchdown rate questions about Kingsbury. The combination of Kingsbury and Murray's frankly not been very good in that regard yet.

In terms of their passing efficiency there in the red zone and their passing touchdown rate. Yeah. They like to run the ball a lot in the red zone. Sure. But he, but again, he had the fourth most goal to go targets in that stretch.

All right. So the rest of this tier, Irv Smith, Gerald Everett, Cole Komet, Pat Frymuth, and Mike Kosicki. Dan, what's your read on this tier? So I do like Ertz a tier higher than Heath does. I have him in the tier three range. I believe I'm really happy to see,

just to look at his high slot percentage. So I also had concerns about Ertz coming into that offense, but then the way they utilized him as basically a big slot it's an easy solution for kyler murray and kyler murray needs easy solutions he did he's a he's very short quarterback he can't really use the he has not done a great job using the middle of the field so urts is kind of that quick out outlet so i like urts but the rest of this tier has some of my favorite uh guys that i like to target late gerald everett, a player who produced in Fantasy League for a lot of those who had Travis Kelsey on the COVID list

and had other players injured last year during that stretch on Russell Wilson. I'm a believer in his talent, and I'm a believer in his situation now as he moves to the Los Angeles Chargers. Cole Komet is somebody who, look, you talk about Dalton Schultz versus Cole Komet. Cole Komet, to me, I see more upside there. I think he's a much more talented player. He moves well better without the ball. He has decent numbers after the catch, with yards after the catch.

And he, to me, has a chance for an even better target share than Dalton Schultz there. I know the offense isn't going to be as good. Target share, sure. Yes, target share, right. But total targets, I'd say no. And then I have a few other players who really concern me in this tier. Mike Giusecchi is somebody who I thought really profited from having a really high slot snap percentage. I think that's going to go down with the additions they've made at receiver. I also think that entire offense is going to look

so completely different than it did last year. Just you couldn't have a more drastic system change going from the weirdest offense I've ever seen in the NFL last year using RPOs and such high percentage to a Mike McDaniel offense is that's going to run the ball a lot. So Pat Friermuth for me, total avoid player as well. It's not to run the ball a lot. So Pat fire move for me, total avoid player as well. It's not the talent. I love Pat fire move sounds. I think he's the most talented player in this tier potentially,

but I think that total, the past game is going to be a total disaster, no matter if it's Trubisky or Kenny picket running that offense with the offensive line situation there. And then Irv Smith's a guy who I've also stayed away from. I think Irv Smith's a bit overrated. I think we look at Ir earth Smith and from a talent standpoint I don't know if there's that much of a jump between urge Smith and

Cole commit and earth Smith has never produced on a consistent basis from a fantasy standpoint there either so he's another player I avoid in this tier I'm gonna I did a yeah Twitter defense of earth Smith earlier today for no reason at all so I'll just say like i think you can feel pretty confident based on the competition at the position kirk cousins history and um the o'connell's history and the fact they want to throw a bunch you're going to get 80 plus targets from irv smith this year if he's healthy um and so at where he's at right now in a good high volume pass offense, if he gets 80 plus targets, he probably belongs in this tier.

We don't know for sure if he's good. He played a year behind Kyle Rudolph. And then in 2020, he kind of, kind of transitioned. Rudolph got hurt at the end of the year. He was pretty good for the last month of the season. Um, and then he missed all of last year, but he was an early declare who put up 700 yards and seven touchdowns on a team with every wide receiver in the NFL on it. Jerry, Judy, Devontae Smith, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Waddell, all four on that team. And Irv Smith was right there with them.

Well, not all of them. Judy was way ahead of everybody. So I don't want to rule out the possibility that he might be good. He was a second-round pick who had some good production as a junior at Alabama. If he is good, he could be tied in six. And if Thielen gets hurt, then things change.

And Thielen gets hurt all the time. So, you know. I think, yes, if Thielen doesn't get hurt, then it's probably either Osborne or Irv Smith, who is fantasy relevant. If Phelan does get hurt, then it could easily be both. But this is what I'm not trying to make this about Dalton Schultz.

I'm trying to make this about this tier. This is what I'm talking about where at the end of the year, if Irv Smith gets his 80 targets, he might not be that much worse than Dalton Schultz. But in this tier, I don't know who's going to be consistent. And this is the type of tight end that drives you freaking crazy

because you're wondering, do I stream? Is this the week where he's going to get his seven targets or is he going to have three? You know what I mean? So I think we all like Kemet because he could be second on the team of targets, maybe give you some of that consistency.

But I don't really... You said you drafted this tier a lot, Heath. I worry about the consistency of this tier. Not everyone, but it's Ertz, Erb Smith, Gerald Everett, Komet, Fryer, Muth, Kosicki. I see two players there where I think there could be consistency. How about you?

Non-injury to anyone else. As the way the roster stands now. I am not the guy to ask about consistency because I mostly ignore it and half think it's a myth. Like Dalton Schultz had five games last year with 21 yards or fewer. Right. How is that consistent?

But I think he's going to be better because Amari Cooper is not there. He had two games without Amari Cooper, and I think he had seven or more targets in both games. But they've replenished the wide receiver core there. Yes, they have not. Jalen Tolbert is not Amari Cooper. Adam, I don't think the offense, I agree with that, of course.

I mean, who wouldn't agree with that? It's an absurd comment, but I don't think the offense looks at it like, oh, now we have Jalen Tolbert, or now we have Michael Gallup. Did you just call him Jalen Turbert? Yes, I did. I think the comparison— Or Michael Gallup, once he's healthy, and now we have to drastically change how our offense runs.

We're going to run it through Dalton Schultz. No. The read, the progressions remain the same. They're still looking to run that offense via the outside in. Except one guy is going to be open all the time, because Amari Cooper is great at that. Is he going to be open? No, Amari Cooper was. So the guy I would compare it to is Gasicki in this tier. Mike Gasicki has had great numbers in the past when a guy like

Preston Williams got hurt a few years ago. If you remember the last eight games of that season, Mike Gasicki went off. But when Mike Gasicki has had two reliable receivers on the field at the same time, you barely hear from him and he's not worth rostering. So that, you know, that's my concern with players in this tier and Kosicki is one of them, you know? Yeah, I understand the concerns. I just don't really see how Dalton Schultz supersedes all these, like how, what, what makes him so much better than some of these players in this tier? Because I just don't think he has because he's on a higher pass volume offense than many of these guys

and I don't think he has he doesn't have the Jalen Waddell, Tyree Kill factor. You know, for Friar Muth, he doesn't have Johnson, Claypool, maybe Pickens. For Irv Smith, he doesn't have Jefferson, Thielen, KJ Osborne. I just think, you know,

I just think the situation is better, but again, I'm sorry. I don't want to bring this back to Schultz. I want to bring this about these guys in tier four that obviously don't have, which is why they're into your four. They don't have perfect situations. Right. They're being drafted, but we don't need to compare these guys to Dalton Schultz. They're being drafted four or five rounds later. Right. Um, this, I, you, you should draft two of these guys if you're going to or one of these guys and one of the tier five guys and it's a bit of a lottery ticket situation like we get to tier five there's also some guys who i think could end up being tight in six but every player in this tier i don't okay i don't really believe that fryer moose could um i'm with dan

but basically every player in this tier i I think, could be tight in six. Okay. So let's go to tier five then. Tier five is Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant, David Njoku, Evan Ingram, the very underrated Logan Thomas, as we've learned, Hayden Hurst, and Albert O. Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant, David Njoku, Evan Ingram, Logan Thomas, Hayden Hurst, and Albert O.

All right, what's tier five then, Heath? A hodgepodge. Like Higbee, I've actually got projected higher than where I have him tiered here. He'd be in tier four if I was doing it just solely based on projections, but I'm just tired of touting Tyler Higbee. Fant, I think talent-wise, might belong in Tier 3,

but it's a pretty terrible situation, and he's the third wheel in the pass offense. David Njoku is Cleveland O.J. Howard. But things could be great, or he could be catching passes from Jacoby Brissett. Evan Ingram was one of the worst tight ends in the NFL last year, but he's now Doug Peterson's probably number one tight end. It's just a

hodgepodge. There's not a theme here that I have. Okay. And does this matter to you? I'm guessing it doesn't. And I would say, I just said the Tier 4 guys could be top 6 tight ends. The bar's low for this, but any of these guys could be top

10 tight ends. If Tyler Higby, his last six game tyler higby finished very strong his last six games before the nfc championship game remember he got the ankle spray and missed the super bowl played 18 of the snaps in the nfc championship game the last six games he had 41 or more yards in every game his 17 game pace was 82 catches 878 yards six touchdowns on 113 targets you'd obviously sign up for that this is tyler higby i'm talking about here i don't know what happened in those six games i think the target share i didn't have a chance to calculate that i think it was a lot higher the only thing robert woods was was missing i do think that there's maybe something to that

that robert woods maybe had a slightly bigger impact on higby than odell beckham like i think those numbers you gave higby might have been as good as beckham in the final six games um yeah probably not not necessarily the touchdowns but right yeah the targets for sure and i don't know 40 yards a game sounds like odell Beckham. The two times where Higby's been good was the last five games of 2020, I believe. No, 2019. When Gerald Everett didn't play. Those were the only games that Higby played without Everett. Everett played something like 10 snaps in those five games.

And then this stretch here without Robert Woods, he had played two games before that without Robert Woods and didn't do anything. So I don't know what to make of it but maybe there's a boost there for him but now they have Allen Robinson so yeah it's tough and is Allen Robinson as good as Tyler Higby

I don't know and then the final tier is tier six tier six has Robert Tunyon Hunter Henry Brevin Jordan, Austin Hooper, CJ Uzama, and Dawson Knox. The theme of this tier is I tried to think of all the guys that I might get yelled at for leaving out of my tiers

and I found this tier. Well, Knox, I think, is the one that stands out because his ADP is a top 12 tight end. But it's following that ADP. Is it? Yes. Take a look. I probably need to move Dawson.

I'm going to give O.J. Howard a week or two of camp. And if the reports are as negative as they were at OTAs, then I need to move Knox up into Tier 5. But he's Robert Tunyon or Friar Muth from last year almost, and I just don't buy into those guys that do almost nothing but score touchdowns. I guess the question is, does he have the opportunity to do more than that now?

And I'm just going to look at NFC ADP, 46 drafts since July 1st. He's tight end 10. What? Dawson Knox. I don't know that his ADP is falling. This is something we need to talk about because some of these are best ball drafts,

I believe. If you have Josh Allen, then reaching for Dawson Knox to pair him for the stacking purposes, I think that happens with Gabriel Davis too because he's like wide receiver 24 in best ball drafts and wide receiver 30 in regular redrafts.

Can you look at Scott Fishbowl ADP? That does exist. Well, a lot of people are stacking in Scott Fishbowl because those final three weeks you want the correlation. I guess, but I don't understand. I don't understand why Knox, why that, you know, look, he's on the team with Josh Allen. That's the appeal of Dawson Knox.

They lost target getters two and three from last year's squad, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. He is going to be, I wouldn't say for sure, but he's obviously got the potential to be a nice red zone or green zone target. You know, I think you guys are too low. I think the drafters are probably too high

on him at tight end 10, but I don't know. I don the drafters are probably too high on him at tight end 10. But I don't know. I don't think he belongs in a different tier. I guess I just don't see him as Robert Tunyon. I'm not dying to draft Dawson Knox, but I do think you're not giving him quite enough credit. What do you think is the difference between him and Robert Tunyon? More pass volume and more passing yards for the offense.

Aaron Rodgers, then that's a run-first team. Much less competition for targets Robert Tunyon. More pass volume and more passing yards for the offense. Aaron Rodgers, then that's a run-first team. But much less competition for targets for Tunyon. I don't know. I mean, I don't know that Tunyon is in the discussion to really be a bit... First of all, he's hurt, right? He may not even be ready for week one. But I feel like Dawson Knox is a clear target getter.

I have no idea what Robert Tunyon is. I don't know where Robert Tunyon is in the pecking order. But I don't know where anyone... I don't know what the pecking order is for the Packers. That's fair. I don't either. Yeah. I don't know that we really know what the pecking order is

for the Bills after Stephon Diggs. You know, if I had to guess, I would guess Gabrielriel davis is two and and dawson ox is third and targets wow that's my guess so you think that they are just moving away because the slot wide receiver has been the guy that's kind of been the number two over the last few years you think they're just doing away with the slot wide receiver no but jamison crowder doesn't stay healthy all right so let's digs 160 davis i don't even know 110 and that sounds very close to me yeah 75 to 80 for nox i yeah oh yeah he had no that's probably selling him short. He had 71

targets last year in 15 games. I'll give him 85 to 90. At that point, you're definitely talking about a streamer. Fantasy relevant tight end. He had more targets than Gabriel Davis last year, so maybe... That's what I'm saying. People could be overestimating

Gabriel Davis big time a player i like in this tier adam that i think has a lot of hate and we've already hated on or you've already hated him on on him on this show is hunter henry i know it was very seemed like a very touchdown fluky season last year but he actually was sixth in slot snaps last year which we have determined to be very sticky for tight ends, something you want to see. They're lining up in the slot. And actually, the ADOT was what really stood out to me for him.

The average depth of target, he was fifth among tight ends in average depth of target that got at least a minimum of 20% of the targets on their team last year. Those are two stats that I like to see, two kind of underlying numbers to back up a potential for more for Hunter Henry as that offense takes a step forward, as Mac gets better in the NFL and we've seen even from a touchdown perspective there are some players I'm not saying Henry will be this type of player like Adam Thielen who have you know their touchdown percentage stays high because their target is so heavily within the

red zone and I think Henry could be one of those players as well I will say that if Dawson Knox is a top 10 tight end then Hunter Henry should be top 12. There we go. They are very similar, except for the fact that Henry has actually been a good fantasy tight end before. So Dan, you probably don't, I'm guessing inline snaps are not something you like

for a tight end. Not at all. Unless your name is Rob Honkowski or George Kittle, because you guys can, they're so good at blocking inline that they keep them there. But otherwise, yeah, you want the slot, guys. Okay, because Dawson Knox does have a lot of in-line snaps.

He lined up in line more than anywhere else, followed by the slot, and then not too much out wide. All right, let's read some Apple podcast questions. Sorry it's a little bit late in the show. We have another episode coming up later today. It'll publish on Friday. You'll have a mailbag. It'll be your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. And if you're on YouTube, you can ask us some questions there as well. We'll have Yahoo's Liz Loza joining us. This is from JR in Louisville.

I've been listening since 2016. Can you spend some time discussing the biggest mistakes you all made in 2021 fantasy drafts? I think this would be incredibly helpful to hear the guys talk about what they learned from 2021 that they're applying to 2022. P.S. I voted Adam as the best male podcast host. That, of course, is not the category. It is the best podcast hosted

by a male, but thank you for voting at podcast awards.com. All right, biggest mistakes, guys. Anything you want to bring up here? I'm like an NFL corner. You don't remember. Next play. No, one thing I'm trying to do better this year from last year, and it's been a struggle.

It's like Dave's running back struggle. I try to break free from my projections earlier in drafts every year. Okay. I definitely shouldn't be caring about my projections in round 12, but I'd like to get to where I'm like, maybe I could get as early as like seven or eight. Dan? Yeah, for me, it would probably be ignoring quarterbacks and one quarterback leagues and just assuming I can get two high upside guys late. I think Chris Towers has done a good job of breaking

it down over the last two seasons. We've seen a big tier gap between those quarterbacks, the quarterbacks who have and the quarterbacks who don't, the ones who are actually scoring a lot on a per game basis and those who aren't. And yeah, a couple of years ago, you could find Mahomes before his breakout late and you got a breakout and yeah a couple years ago you could find Mahomes before his breakout late and you got a breakout and the same thing happened with Lamar Jackson but that is not necessarily the case I don't think and it's not going to be it hasn't been the last two years I don't think it's going to be this year especially with Trey Lance's ADP creeping up I think as the best case to be that player this year so I'm gonna I'm not going I'm gonna change my

strategy up a little bit this year and I've seen it already in these one quarterback leagues I'm finding myself well Kyler Murray's there round five round six I'm taking to change my strategy up a little bit this year, and I've seen it already in these one-quarterback leagues. I'm finding myself, well, Kyler Murray's there round five, round six. I'm taking him, and I never used to do that. I never used to take the quarterback no matter what until rounds 10, 11, or even sometimes toward the very end of the draft and then just look to stream. I think those days might be over. Okay, and I didn't really make any mistakes last year, so let's go to our next one. Despite the fact that you had all of the dead zone running backs multiple times across multiple teams.

That's 100 million percent not true. You were a very big Mike Davis and Miles Gaskin. Are you kidding me? Not Davis, but you had Gaskin on the team. I did not draft a single Mike Davis or Miles Gaskin. I did not like either of those guys. You are a liar. You are a huge liar. The Listener's League podcast, you went like

three straight running backs in that range, and one of them was definitely Gaskin. I remember this. I think you're lying. I hated Gaskin last year. Gaskin, Chase Edmonds, you had them all. Chase Edmonds I did like. I had a lot of Chase Edmonds, and I think it was justified. My biggest mistake was not drafting Cooper Cup, so I'm trying to figure out

who this year... I was so in on Robert Woods and not at all on Cooper Cup, So I'm trying to figure out who this year, you know, why I was so in on Robert Woods and not at all on Cooper Cup. And I don't know if there's a comparison this year, but I'll try to figure that out. This is from Core2186. Have either of you discussed, have any of you ever discussed trades alive on the air amongst yourself and your respected leagues?

We never brought up the dynasty trades, Heath, but we'll try to do that with you and Dave. Maybe we did i i've tried to make a trade with dave on air like 17 times um so it's strange that you don't recall any of those yeah me and jamie literally did this two weeks ago adam yes um yeah it does is where trades happen our dynasty league um and i just did a complete teardown in a dynasty league that everybody hates what I did. So we could discuss that as well. Yeah. Okay.

Well, I think it's a fun segment. We do it throughout the season as well. We try to make Heath and Dave make trades in their dynasty league. I need to do the same because I inherited such a bad dynasty team. I'm looking to do a complete teardown. The problem is with Adam no longer in the league, I don't really have any marks in the league. So I have to kind of really work a little bit harder to get some value back for some of the players. It's a funny comment. I've actually never been

in the league. So your name is plastered across one of my name is on a team. Yes. I just assumed they kind of like got rid of you. By the way, is my name Ryan or is my name Adam? But what do you what do you think my name is? Just question. You can say it. Go ahead. You know my name. You can say it. Rhetorical question.

Yeah, it's Adam. Because a guy named Ryan drafted Myles Gaskin last year in the podcast league. So you just – No, no. The league that I was in, the last draft we did that I was in, because you didn't invite me to most of those leagues. What is that, the FFT league? I think it was the one we did live on air. You had like a string of like four straight running backs in the dead zone.

So, no, you're probably thinking of my first four picks in the FFT League, which were Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Robert Woods, and Gus Edwards. This was a different league, but whatever. Move on. We'll move past this. We'll see this here. This is from Bugman. He says, Great show, poor ADP. I don't love the – it was a five-star review. I don't love the headline there.

Gabriel Davis in round seven, he goes at the end of the fourth every time. His ADP is 46. He's talking about the underdog app ADP. It's misleading, and it gets the listener jacked to steal him in round six when in reality he's going 20 picks earlier. JJ Zacharias, I probably got that wrong, late round QB on Twitter, had responded to someone and said,

this is not a best ball tweet, or this is mostly about redraft. And I just said, I want to pin this. Because best ball this time of year has become so prominent and it's great. And I enjoy the format very much, but best ball ADP and redraft ADP are not the same thing and should not be the same thing.

Gabriel Davis is going in the fourth round because, well, it's ridiculous anyway, but people want to pair him up with Josh Allen. Right. Okay. I agree with this comment here on YouTube. Dan wants to be Adam, LOL. I think we've known that for a while. Wow.

All right. This is from Traffic Cone. Can you name that comment so I know who made that so I can use that for future reference? Oh, he's on all the time. Broward Bravado. I have seen Broward a lot. Me and him, we had some great conversation blasting adam in the youtube on the last live show now you're turning on me all right uh from i think it was a compliment by the way traffic cone 500 is in a salary cap ppr keeper league 250 budget who should he keep? Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans

for a total of $192 out of 250. Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, and Travis Etienne for $176, so we'll save 16 bucks. Jonathan Taylor, Mike Evans, and Travis Etienne, that would be the cheapest but would not include McCaffrey, and that would be $ cheapest but would not include mcafree and that would be 102 dollars out of 250. i that's interesting i think you can lean toward 192 i'm trying to do the math here is christian so i'm trying to just break down what each of these players cost is that'll help us kind of determine which ones are worth keeping.

I almost feel like you can do the one without McCaffrey because you're spending so much of your budget on McCaffrey in this situation. So we know Evans is 16 more than Etienne. Yeah. And we know McCaffrey is 74 more than Evans? No, you can compare McCaffrey... 74 more than Evans, yeah. you can compare McCaffrey. 74 more than Evans, yeah. You can compare McCaffrey to ETN.

Oh, yeah, yeah. I don't care. Also, the train left Chicago at 4 o'clock going 38 miles per hour. What time did it get to St. Louis? What's your answer here, guys? I'm doing the one without McCaffrey. I'm going to go Taylor McCaffrey Evans. YOLO.

It's getting to be a long show, so let's do these last three quickly. From Steph Key, what could I realistically expect in return for Clyde Edwards-Elair and a late 2023 first round pick? Heath? That's basically a late 2023 first and an early 2023 second in my mind. I think you could get close to a low end number one running back.

If you could find like, I would be, if you're one of running back, I'd be targeting, I assume you're a contender if you're trading your first pick and you think it's gonna be late. So maybe one of these 26 or 27 year old running backs that happened to be on a team that's not a contender would be my first target. All right. Next one is from Guids. And this was another five-star review, but the subject was down year. You can't do that. I agree with the emailer from the last show. This year's fantasy draft is one of the worst ones in memory. So you're talking about, you put down year. Kind of sounds like you're talking about our podcast. That's okay.

The top running backs are unimpressive. Receivers are more shallow this year because of the lack of quality. Quarterbacks all the way around the consensus rankings just feel sad. I'll still participate, but I'm not as excited as normal. Oh, man. I don't know.

I don't. There's plenty to be excited about. it's just very unpredictable this year yeah i think that might actually make it more exciting but i do agree with the listener it's been a weird year as i go through these drafts i feel like there's less talent at receiver than normal i actually think there is maybe more running back talent than normal as i go through these drafts i used to never take running backs in that rounds three through six range. And I found myself looking at the board and being like, can I definitely count on this wide receiver to be a target hog and a passing offense that's meh? Or should I just take Ezekiel Elliott for the bounce back? Or should I just take J.K. Dobbins, two players that I think could ultimately be really valuable players on your roster in that range?

So I think it's a good year for running backs. Ultimately, the dead zone running backs to me are better than they typically are. Yeah. Well, especially if you took miles Gaskin and Mike Davis, which of course I did not from wake up 23, I think we'll do, we'll do a deeper dive into that and I'll audit it a little more thoroughly. You're wrong.

I think I read this last week, but I'm not sure. So I don't want to shortchange wake up 23. It's a 10 team Pam PPR keeper league. Two running backs, three wide receivers. I have Devontae Adams and Debo Samuel as keepers in the first and the second round.

Who would you take with the first pick of the draft? He's already got Adams and Debo. Would you take Jamar Chase, Kelsey, McCaffrey, Mixon, Pitts, Fournette, or Kamara, or Swift, or Evans, blah, blah, blah. Not going to be any of them. McCaffrey Mixon Pitts Fournette or Camara or Swift or Evans blah blah blah not gonna be any of them McCaffrey

yeah okay I am a little yep go ahead thanks for the I'm sorry for the marathon everybody appreciate y'all being here

and again we've got we've got FFT and 5 we got a lot of stuff but most importantly 5 p.m. Eastern join us on YouTube

to watch that episode with Liz Loza and Dan Schneier, and we'll talk to you later on Fantasy Football today.