Fantasy Football Today - Tight End Tiers! Why it's OK to Wait (07/16 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 16, 2020

A random Jonnu Smith stat (2:04) seems like the perfect place to start today's show! And we've got news and notes (6:00) before we get into the TE tiers (10:00) starting with some general questions and then the elite tier of Travis Kelce and George Kittle and when they really should be drafted. And does Kelce need to be better than he was in 2019 to justify his ADP? ... Moving on to the near-elite tier (24:48) which consists of only two TEs and then a bigger tier called "They Might Be Elite" (26:46). This tier is bigger for Dave than it is for Heath and Ben. Find out who thinks Rob Gronkowski and Tyler Higbee belong here ... Two more tiers to get to (36:18). We discuss guys like Hayden Hurst, Noah Fant and Austin Hooper plus late-round guys with upside ... Your emails at [e-mail] Nominate us on PodcastAwards! https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Finishing up Tears Week with tight ends. You know who the two elite guys are. What about after that? I think there's a really, really exciting group in the middle of your drafts

with guys like Hunter Henry and Tyler Higbee and Evan Ingram, and we'll see what kind of potential they have. As we welcome you to the show here, we're recording on Wednesday morning, so if we don't know all the updated franchise news, it doesn't really matter. You're going to hear this on Thursday.

And if you tuned into our Twitch mock draft on Tuesday night, thank you so much for that. I'm Adam Azer. Dave Richard is here. Hey, Dave, what's up? He's saluting me. Good day, sir. Yeah, we're on YouTube.

Ben and Heath are both wearing hats. Heath, nice hat. Nice CBS Sports HQ hat. Reppin, good job. Thank you. I think this is the first time I've worn a hat on the podcast, possibly. But I've noticed everybody else is wearing hats, and I hadn't got my hair did yet today.

So I just put a hat on. That's a sweet hat. We had backwards hats in our byline photos. Really? Those were fun. A lot of hats. Yeah, you're right, Heath. Everybody's worn it.

I've worn a hat once. Ben wears a hat every time. I don't know what it means. It's got four letters on it. Since I haven't cut my hair in I don't know how many months, it's kind of necessary. Yeah, and I should do the same. I look ridiculous. Speaking of ridiculous, I was thinking

of starting the show with a ridiculous Azerstat. I'm kind of having fun with this game now. I don't think I'm going to do it, though. I'll just get to it. Come on. But this is what Adam does to you, right? He finds an angle that becomes a thing

on the show, and then he says, I'm not going to do it. He takes a step back, only to take the step forward. So he's going to do it. Go ahead, Adam. The floor is yours. All right. Fine. Fine, Dave. I'll do it. I'm going to twist my arm. I'll do it. You're going to twist my leg.

Jonu Smith, 10 games with Ryan Tannehill. In the six games in those 10, the Tannehill threw more than 22 passes. Jonu Smith was on pace for 61 catches, 832 yards, and eight touchdowns. Every time Tannehill threw more than 22 passes, John Smith was really good. Basically, he was a borderline top 12 tight end, like even including the bad game.

I think he had two games with no targets. And I think he was 13th from the point that Ryan Tannehill took over and was second on the team in targets in the three playoff games, tied with A.J. Brown, behind only Corey Davis. Yeah, but he had three games with no yards.

But in those three games, I mean, Tannehill threw between 18 and 22 passes. So if you look at the game log, I mean, that's why there were some bad games. That's a great stat. Hey!

But he still was super bad in those games. But to add some context, between 18 and 22 passes, even if you just go to 22 passes, you do that by a 16-game season, that'd be a 352 pass attempt pace. I've said before when we talked about the Titans, we talked about it on projections week last week,

they threw fewer than 450 passes each of the past two years. It's two of the only four seasons in the last seven years of any team. So it's very, very low. That's under 450. And so we're talking about 22, sub 22 pass attempts is like a sub, you know, it's a 350 pass attempt pace. It's extremely, extremely low volume. It doesn't sound like that low when you think about it on the per game

perspective, when you think of 22 attempts. But like even to average 28, 28 attempts is about, is the low end in a league. And so you should expect the Titans to at least be throwing 20 to 30 times. So there's a, you know, I think it's notable that anytime they actually threw a reasonable amount of times and they weren't just this really old school football team, which we've talked about, they won't be able to do at will this year.

It requires efficiency. It requires them winning games. It's not easy to do that. It'll probably happen a couple of times, but anytime they've thrown reasonably that John Smith was that good, I think that's notable. Yeah. John Smith also had double digit PPR fantasy points in all three weeks of the fantasy playoffs last year, 14 through 16.

Then he kind of fell off in the playoffs in the NFL playoffs. Yeah. Because Tannehill barely threw in the playoffs. I mean, he threw 15, 14, and then 31 pass attempts in three playoff games. And again,

John Smith did nothing in those first two games, and then he was not great. He had three catches for 38 yards. Actually, he caught a touchdown in one of those games, but he had 12 yards. Yeah, right. It wasn't great. That at least opened my eyes to what his target share might be, and he could be

the second leading receiver on the team. Well, he didn't even play. That coincided when Ryan Tannehill took over, coincided with when John O. Smith really started playing a lot of snaps. He did not play, I don't think, even 70% of the snaps before Tannehill became the starter, and he was

80% that week, and then 80% most weeks from that point forward. That's interesting. And they've already worked out together in Miami this offseason, so that's kind of cool. He's one of those tight ends that's in and they've already worked out together in miami this this offseason so that's kind of cool uh he's he's one of those tight ends that's in that tier of guys that have tons of upside that you can get in the double digit rounds we'll get to it we'll get to it but um it's it's one of many players that might motivate you to draft two tight ends this year just last thing

with the whole snap share thing it just so happened that Tannehill starting also coincided with Delaney Walker being out for the season. Delaney Walker basically only played when Mariota was the quarterback. He got hurt in week seven. That was Tannehill's first start. All righty. So that's, yeah, like Dave said, there are some exciting tight ends late, including John O. Smith. Some news and notes for you. The Eagles and the Phillies are not going to have fans at their games. Like Dave said, there are some exciting tight ends late, including John O. Smith. Some news and notes for you.

The Eagles and the Phillies are not going to have fans at their games. Might see more and more of that in the coming days and weeks. Who knows? I had assumed, I guess wrongly, that as soon as one team was prohibited by their municipality from having fans, that no teams would have fans. I assume that's a pretty big competitive disadvantage. If there is some place out there that's allowed to have 40,000 fans and the team, other team in their division is allowed to have zero.

Yeah. But money's money. He's. And if the NFL has an opportunity to make something, they're going to, they're going to do it during this, this year. So even if some teams aren't allowed to have fans, the ones that are allowed to have even a few fans, something, they're going to do it during this year. So even if some teams aren't allowed to have fans, the ones that are allowed to have even a few fans,

they'll make a little bit of revenue off that. That's just so, so short-sighted. I know, but it's not. I agree with you. It is short-sighted, and they really probably shouldn't do it, but they're looking to try and just get something out of this year. I mean, it's going to be a minuscule fraction of what they normally make, but something. Well, I just don't, I don't think in the grand scheme of things, ticket sales are a very, I think that's a minuscule fraction. Listen, it's, it's, it's ticket sales, it's parking fees, it's concessions. It's all that

stuff. The, to the owners, this is a business. And so they are trying to make them as much money back as they can during a year where they know they're going to take a bloodbath on the spreadsheet. So do they share ticket sale money? I believe they do to a degree. I don't think it's exactly 50-50. I'm not 100% sure. So don't quote me on that. But I think the visiting team does get a cut. They do in other sports.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure. I just added a ton of targets to Johnny Smith in my projections because of your stats. Yes! Oh, right. I feel so vindicated. I also said that he was good every time Tannehill threw more than 22 times.

That's not exactly true. I think there were six games, and he had four really good games. But overall, the numbers were very good. I just want to clarify that. And then there's really not much NFL news. As of now, like again, like I said, we're recording this before the franchise tag deadline,

but Kenny Stills was arrested during a protest. Probably not something that's really fantasy significant right now. I mean, a lot of people get arrested during protests. I don't know exactly what he was doing, but I think we'll just let this one play itself out. I believe he was one of 87 people doing nothing that were arrested and charged with felonies.

I actually heard during all the protests last month, a former police chief or something like that said that protest organizers would be like, hey, we're protesting tonight. And he'd say, okay, how many of you guys want to be arrested? And then the organizer would be like, this amount of people want to be arrested. They would just plan on it. Like, okay, these people protest, they want to be arrested. So I guess that happens in protests. All right. We are one of 20 finalists for the sports category of the People's Choice Podcast Awards. We appreciate all you do for us, and we hope that you enjoy our show enough to

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Big Cat is making his first PGA Tour start since February at the Memorial Tournament at historic Moorfield Village. Mearfield. Mearfield Village. Okay. Probably should have given me phonetically written out read here. The First Cut Golf Podcast has you covered with two stacked preview shows and round by round recap pods as tiger

searches for career win number 83 you can find the first cut on apple podcast spotify or wherever you like to enjoy podcasts all right tight end question i asked you this about uh wide receiver yesterday tight end what's the best tier what's the worst here in terms of value if that exists for tight ends I don't know the best year from Dave's for me is the stream where they're worthy tier that has both of my favorite late round guys Mike is sicky and TJ Hawkinson that's pretty easy for me worst

here is the start worthy tier right above that although there will be some disagreement on whether Hayden Hearst belongs in that tier he could easily jump up at least one tier for me he's probably already made that jump for everybody else on the planet but it's the leftover guys that are good enough to be starting week one but you don't really feel great about it and that'll happen for me i think that starts happening those players start coming off the board in round nine. I think if you hear Hayden Hurst in round nine, you either go, man, it's too late.

He's going to be awesome. Or, ew, I don't want him at that point. I don't think there's going to be a lot of people that go, all right, Hayden Hurst, round nine. That sounds good. So he'll be a little polarizing just because he hasn't done it yet. We're talking about a tight end that's had limited opportunities. Getting a great one in Atlanta, we'll see if he can

come through with it. I struggle with this question. Yeah, it's not a good question. Because in the they might be elite tier, Darren Waller's going in the sixth round and Rob Gronkowski's going in round 10. I don't know how to quantify

the value of that tier. Okay. Well, that didn't help. So Dave's answer, though, the start-worthy tier being the worst one is Austin Hooper, Hayden Hurst, and Noah Fant. And again, this is Dave's tiers. Not everybody's...

People are going to have different tiers. The one that Ben liked, the stream-worthy tier, according to Dave, is Gasicki, Cook, Johnnie Smith, Goddard, Doyle, Sternberger, Ebron, Hawkinson, and Ian Thomas. What do you think your chances, like if you draft one of those guys, your chances of having a starter for the year is? Like you're drafting, that's your second tight end,

or you're drafting two of them and hoping you could theoretically use them in week one and carry only the one tight end there's nine tight ends there i would imagine that every year for the past few years there's maybe been two or three tight ends that have gone from rags to riches whereas they were either drafted later not drafted at all and then they finish as a top 12 tight end so i'd say maybe there's a 30 chance just overall that one of those guys would uh would finish as a top 12 guy and you could use them all year long oh i would say giziki's at the top of the list by the way and i think he's got the best chance to be that guy if we're just saying the chances of one of those guys being a top 12 tight end i'd'd say it's more like 80%. Sure.

No, I'm not talking about one of those guys. I'm saying you pick one. What's your chance? But yeah, I read it and I heard it as Heath saying, all these guys, you just pick one. What's the odds overall? Sure. Spread it around.

But also it's like finishing number 12 at tight end and playing 16 games. That's not somebody you wanted to start all year. Definitely not. Definitely not. The standards are pretty low. And Gasicki is so interesting. We bring this up a lot. His first two games are the Patriots and the Bills.

So, I mean, by that definition, he probably is not stream worthy, although he did catch a touchdown against the Patriots in week 17. Yet four catches. And he's way more of a wide receiver than a traditional tight end anyway. It will be really interesting to see how he's used in Chan Gailey's offense. Okay. He uses the wide receiver.

Mark it down. He may end up being the number two receiver for Miami this year. Preston Williams played half a season and had better numbers. Sure. Yeah. I wouldn't go that far. I love you. Is Preston Williams going half a season and had better numbers sure yeah I wouldn't go that far and I love you is Preston Williams going to be available like we keep going back and forth on

Preston Williams but he tore his ACL in November let's see how he looks how many times does a player tear his ACL in November and come back in September the year after and it's just fine like nothing ever happened and it wasn't like amazing yeah I mean torn ACLs don't scare me that much anymore and it's just fine. Like nothing ever happened. And it wasn't like Cooper Cup. Amazing.

Yeah, I mean, torn ACLs don't scare me that much anymore, but Cooper Cup's an example that I can't really think of that many off the top of my head. Adrian Peterson tore it like on Christmas Day or something, right?

But that's Adrian Peterson. We're talking about Preston Williams. But he's much younger than Adrian Peterson. Two different athletic specimens. Yeah, I mean, not according to Heath. Preston Williams is a pretty good

athletic specimen. That's the reason he got in the draft because of off-field problems, right? I will say, I don't know that ranking. He was that good of a specimen. He would have been picked. I don't know that ranking the Miami weapons is really that relevant because

Preston Williams and Devonta Parker play on the outside and Gasicki was playing in a slot a ton. So like, if you think that Gasicki is going to be in that same role, and I do worry a little bit about Albert Wilson, but he ran more, way more slot snaps than any other tight end in the league i think it was 100 plus more snaps out of the slot um so if he's in that role again like he'll he'll be out there and preston williams will be out there and and devontae parker will be out there he passed

blocked on 2.4 percent of his maps he's a a receiver. He's not a tight end. All right, let's get into the tiers. Start with the elite tier. Round two guys, Travis Kelsey and George Kittle. Yeah, self-explanatory. Anything to say about these guys? The only thing to say is, where are they really worth taking?

In the first. I mean, this is like the the i was just going to say the same thing this is such a hard decision for me because i think they're both so valuable you can justify taking them in the first round uh but at the same time this is such a deep position and you only need one that it really kind of handcuffs the rest of your strategy if there's a if if there's a Titan value you like later. And I found myself when I've taken one of them still taking a guy like a sickie really late. If he falls enough, I'm never going to start him, but I just,

you know, I think there's so much upside and I think he's the best value pick at that point. It's a, it's a tough thing. Sometimes I pass them where I think they're the best value for sure. Kelsey and Kittle. That is just because of roster construction.

I will say like, I'll, I can answer Adam's question now. This is my favorite value based on current ADP because Kelsey's at 21 and Kittle's basically at 24. And I think those are both too low. But I don't think it's... I don't know if I'm taking either guy in the top 15.

And I don't know how great I'd feel taking Kittle around 18th, 19th, 20th overall. In fact, I wouldn't. Well, then you think they're going to be worse than they have been the last two years. Maybe so, but I'd rather attack the other positions for what Ben just said, the tight end group this year. Finally, we've got a list of names that we can feel really good about. And even if I miss out on Kelsey or Kittle by choice

or because other people draft them in front of me, I know I can still get a good tight end as soon as round three and as late as potentially round eight. Yeah, I think those aren't mutually exclusive. I think you can say that they're good values and you don't think they're going to be worse, but they're also not someone you want to reach on

because of the way it impacts your roster construction. So it becomes a thing where, yeah, they're good value. If you take them, you know you're getting them later than you probably would rank them just purely based on what their value is. But at the same time, when you make that plunge, you're committing to a certain strategy. about the depth. It is definitely deep relative to past tight end years, but it's not deep relative to other positions. Quarterback's a much deeper position. Wide receiver's a much, much deeper position. Running back might be just as deep.

Well, I think that comes into play, though, in the second round when you're going, all right, do I take Kelsey or do I take Drake or Mixon or something? How is running back or even wide receiver is deep? I don't, like, maybe in sheer numbers, but in terms of ADP, I can draft a tight end that I feel very good about in the double-digit rounds. I won't, like, I love receivers, but I won't want to start double-digit round receivers

and definitely not double-digit round running backs right away. Okay, but I think that the double start double digit round receivers and definitely not double digit round running backs right away. Okay. But I think that the double digit round tight ends that you feel very good about, you're projecting something onto them that like we can do with wide receivers as well. Like you feel very good about Mike Kosicki and TJ Hawkinson because you think they're going to be much different fantasy performers than they were last

year or Noah fans. Yeah. and TJ Hawkinson because you think they're going to be much different fantasy performers than they were last year. Or Noah Fant. But we had a few of those guys last year that just weren't. No, you make a good point. I mean, we could sit here and I was not going to say this because I don't want this show to be the tight end preview that we're going to do next month, but

you can say tight end so deep, whatever, but I do feel like we've said that often and it's never true uh i know that we have guys that we like but at the end of the day kelsey always is just so much better than almost everyone else you know um or at least the top like four or five guys every year are so much better than everyone else and kelsey is always number one four years in a row in PPR it yeah it's not like I don't know how deep it is because it's deep

it's deep in terms of your hopes for people we have hopes for these guys but a lot of them are not going to work out it's just tight end stats just aren't that good I don't know I don't know that this is going to be like a revolutionary year for tight ends is what I'm trying to say that's been talked about for a long time, and it's never really happened.

I mean, you can talk about maybe 2018 to a degree it was, but it's not like we added this whole truckload of tight ends, just amassed huge numbers. It was top-heavy. And that's how it was last year. But I think everybody should feel a little bit more comfortable with the talent that's available at tight end to at least begin the season with as reliable starters the question i'd pose to you guys is kelsey in round one or gronkowski in round 10 which one would you rather

have if you take gronk in round 10 you got a guy you can start he's not going to be as good as kelsey but then you're getting somebody who's really good in round one instead of kelsey and that's obviously an opportunity cost. Kelsey gives you a huge advantage, but so does an early round running back or early round receiver over who you would take late. And it's the same deal with quarterback. I mean,

it's the same deal with any position, like, you know, the difference between what you expect out of my homes and Lamar Jackson and what you expect out of your favorite late round QB. I think there's plenty upside in these late round tight ends. I agree. And I guess it

also comes down to maybe you've just been bit by, you know, you've maybe you've just had nightmares at the tight end position over the past couple of years. And you're going in your draft this year saying I'm done with it. I want to have a tight end that I can count on weekend and week out. I don't want to mess with the position. And if that's how you feel, then you should really target Kelsey or Kittle ahead of where their ADP is right now. This might be totally different from Ben's projections, but I just looked like that specific question that you asked. Because I thought it's I've got 100 points separating Travis Kelsey from Rob Gronkowski in the projections. 100 PPR fantasy points.

DJ Moore is a wide receiver that I have projected very close in terms of fantasy points with travis kelsey yep you go down to about wide receiver last year basically wide receiver 56 to get to the same wide receiver that i project for the same number of points as rob grankowski um what do you have for grok by the way 160 PPR fantasy points. 55, 7, 44, and 6, basically. That's pretty good for him. 160 PPR points isn't that bad if you assume he's

not going to play 16 games. It's more than 10 per game. But that is 16 games for him, right? But I don't think he's playing. I don't think... Oh, I see. The projection was for 16. Yes. But I guess my point was like my number,

and this is probably why I feel this way, and it could be different. My number 12 tight end, I've got projected for 150 fantasy points. That's an enormous difference from Kelsey and Kittle. And you've got to get to like wide receiver 60 before you fall off to that type of difference at wide receiver.

Yeah, I have the same. I don't have Kelsey, I guess, as high as TJ Moore because I'm really high on Moore, but I have him as essentially a top 10, like very back end of the top 10 wide receivers. And then I have only 10 tight ends before I hit to about 150. And I have Gronk actually at 144. And same as you said, it's late in the 50ies for me to get down to there at wide receivers. So my projections confirm all that. So I just want to ask you one more thing.

Um, I only had Kelsey, I think in one league last year and I took him first or second round. I really didn't get him in run six. I felt like I was disappointed. I don't know. I felt like he did not carry my team the way I really needed him to, and he only had five

touchdowns last year. That was a big difference. But I kind of think if you're taking him in the first round... No, I'm going to say this for sure. If you're taking him in the first round, he needs to do better than he did last year. He needs to do what he did in 2018. Maybe a little worse than that. He doesn't have to do quite that well, because 2018, we had three of the greatest tight end seasons ever

with Kittle, Kelsey, and Ertz. I'm not sure he has to do that, but he has to be closer to that than 2019, in my opinion. Did you feel that disappointment during the season? Yeah. Was that a PPR league? I believe it was a half PPR league. Okay, because he caught 97 balls.

He had over 1,200 yards. Those are pretty ridiculous tight end numbers. But he just wasn't scoring. He only had five touchdowns. I remember he didn't have Mahomes for a few games here and there. You would be pretty disappointed from five touchdowns from anybody in the first round. Sure.

At any position. And I don't really know. But in PPR, he scored 33 more points than any other tight end. And Kittle missed a couple games. Part of it is he's not going to score as many raw points, but you're not going to see that on your ledger, the advantage he's giving you over your opponent's tight ends every week. Right.

But if Adam didn't think about that during the season, if at any point during the season Adam didn't go, well, at least I don't have to mess with tight end, then that just makes it another strike against Kelsey being such an early pick for your team. I'm looking at his game log. He really kind of just went off in the second half and just

couldn't score in the first half. Maybe it was just like his production. I just didn't make the playoffs and didn't get really all of his great production. I don't know. I think he needs to be a little bit better. He just has to catch more touchdowns. That's all.

But he has been the number one tight end in PPR for straight years. Okay, glad we didn't spend much time on that tier. Let's go to the next tier, the near elite tier, Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews, and that's it. Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews in the near elite tier. Dave, want to lay that one out for us? They both have the potential to finish as,

I hesitate to say the number one tight end in fantasy for either guy, but maybe number two, certainly number three. And I get it with Andrews. He's been really efficient with Lamar Jackson.

He's catching a lot of touchdowns. And Ertz has been a steady hand at the tight end position. And it's a matter of whether or not he'll still get the same type of target share in Philadelphia. Now that their receivers are a healthy and be faster and see younger. But they're both, I think we can all agree that Andrews and Ertz are reliable starters.

You'd feel almost the same way about them as you would Kelsey or Kittle in terms of, well, I don't have to worry about the position. I can set it and forget it with these tight ends. They're not going to let me down. They're so different players though, too. Like Ertz is a guy that has been such a high reception player, low efficiency, and we're concerned that his role might be shrinking a little bit with the emergence of Dallas Goddard and new receivers. Andrews is this lower target, lower reception, high efficiency player. There's some reason to believe that his role could expand with Hayden Herse gone if he just plays a few more snaps. Now, obviously, he's a diabetic.

That's part of the reason he doesn't play a full set of snaps. We don't know how all that's going to play out, But there is some possibility that he sees an uptick in routes and snaps. And that would be pretty huge for him. And it's just wildly different players. It's so hard to value them against each other. Okay. But I think a lot of people are going to find themselves in late round four, early round five with those two guys on their mind. This tier makes sense. It's the same in non-PPR and PPR, Ertz and Andrews. So let's go to the next tier.

They might be Giants. They might be Elite. Tyler Higbee, Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, Evan Ingram, and Rob Gronkowski. Tyler Higbee, Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, Evan Ingram, and Rob Gronkowski. Heath, does anyone not belong in this tier? I would only have three

players in this tier. Ingram, Waller, and Henry. But I do think that Higby and Gronk may have as much upside. I'm not sure any of them have as much upside as Waller does, really. If things just stay the same and he scores more

touchdowns, then he's probably better than Andrews and Hertz again. But yeah, I would have Waller does, really. If things just stay the same and he scores more touchdowns, then he's probably better than Andrews and Hurts again. But yeah, I would have Waller, Ingram, and Henry in this tier, and then Higby and Gronk would be in my next tier. I find it impossible to believe that Darren Waller is going to have everything the same. He had almost 120 targets last year. They've done a lot to improve their passing game, both in terms of young wide receivers and running backs.

I think he could be more efficient, but I think his targets are going to go down. I can't argue about it against his touchdowns, though. He only scored three times last year. That could double, but I bet his catches and yards go down considerably. Yeah, I have his catches

and yards going down in my projections, but I have gotten a little bit more optimistic about him after I did projections, because even though I cut him all the way to 94 targets, which was a significant drop from where his role was last year, he still wound up as my tight end six. And I actually agree with you, same tier. I would have Ingram, Waller, and Henry, I think.

And I think it's true that the last two years in the gruden car era tight ends are the only position that's topped 100 targets oh that makes sense it is true jared cook yeah that was when like the entire again the entire receiving core fell apart around cook in 2018 and basically the exact same thing happened in 2019 to Waller. Well, they had Amari Cooper and he just got five targets a game. They had Jordan. Part of it's Derek Carr. They had Cooper only for half the season.

Right. But he averaged five targets per game. Who? Cook or Cooper? Cooper. It's so weird. He had 31 targets in six games. Right.

In some games, he had decent target share. In some games, he didn't. It was stupid. Yeah. For sure. All right. So, Dave, I guess your general reaction to Heath and Ben saying that Waller, Henry, and Ingram have more upside than Higby and Gronk.

Well, they definitely have more upside than Gronk. I agree with that. I love what I saw from Higby late last year. I would imagine the Rams also loved it. Goff was pretty good in those games. At least his fancy totals were good compared to the games prior to them with Higby on the field. And I think Higby will end up being a staple in that offense.

And I love that he was more than just pure blocking short area tight end. They'd line him up wide. They'd use them on screens. He's, he's more quick than fast. He doesn't have speed to him, but he can make a cut or two in the red zone and boom, he's wide open for a touchdown.

Like if there's the, the thing that bothers me about Cooper cup being ranked where I have him right. And I still have him ranked very high is that Higby could absolutely eat into his touchdown share. Both of those guys are, they should turn into twin best friends for Jared Goff in the red zone.

And Higby was averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of 11 targets per game in those final five games. It was preposterous. But even if that dips down to seven or eight, he's still going to be a very good fantasy tight end. And I like that upside in a Rams offense. I'm not sure they're going to be able to run the ball that well. And I think they're going to need short area targets

for Goff to throw to. And Higby fits that perfectly, no matter what the matchup is. I want to talk about Hunter Henry and Evan Ingram real quick, and then we'll get to Gronk. Tell me how much this matters to you. Hunter Henry in his career, he's at, I think it's 8.9 yards per target. And Evan Ingram is at 7.1. Hunter Henry is basically Travis Kelsey per target. Ingram is 7.1, but 2018 he was 9.0. It's been kind of up and down. But does that mean that Hunter Henry is better than Evan Ingram?

No. Ingram, we've talked about his average average depth of targets a lot lower that impacts yards per target and the reason it's up and down is you know whether or not he has a lot of yak in a given season a lot of yards after the catch and he's had such a small sample that um you know I'm not that worried about it it to me has a lot more to do with his depth of target being well below average they haven't used him as vertically as the Chargers have used Henry. Okay. The only reason it bothers me is because my recollection of Jason Garrett's time in Dallas

was that Jason Witten was almost exclusively used within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Yeah. I mean, I don't think Ingram's going to necessarily improve on that efficiency. I like him for targets. But yeah, just to put numbers on that, Henry's ADOT was 10.4 last year. The average tight end's about 7.5-ish, I think, 7.6 or 7.4, one of those numbers.

So he's about three yards above league average for a tight end, more downfield. Ingram was at 5.8, so well below league average and almost half of Henry's depth of throw. So that really impacts the yards per target number. And by the way, last four games of this season, well, last four games that Daniel Jones started in this season, Caden Smith had a 20.4% target share.

Caden Smith was on pace for 100 catches, 880 yards, and 12 touchdowns on 132 targets. And that was with Darius Slayton, Sterling Sh80 yards, and 12 touchdowns on 132 targets. And that was with Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Golden Tate all healthy. Only Golden Tate missed one game of those four. So I thought that was pretty interesting. Daniel Jones certainly threw a lot to Caden Smith. He threw a lot in general. 36,

37, 42, and 47 pass attempts in those four games. So, yeah, I mean, Ingram and Henry, you do have to make somewhat of an investment in them. So, yeah, I mean, Ingram and Henry, you do have to make somewhat of an investment in them. And they both, I think, do you guys agree, both Ingram and Henry have and Waller, a lot of outcomes.

You know, big upside. Everybody in this tier has a lot. Yeah, it's scary. It's scary. Do you go for this tier? Or do you just say, I'm just going to wait, get the other positions here, and just take one of those Johnnie Smiths and stream tight ends if I have to.

But I don't want to have a bust in the seventh, eighth round, something like that. Yeah, I wouldn't take one in these rounds. Dave notes this is kind of where they go. I would want to wait and get a value on one of these guys. I took Henry in the Scott Fish Bowl, but he was a huge value and same with Waller. But I'm not going to be jumping at the next tight end

after the top four come off the board at all. I agree with you on that, Adam. Absolutely don't do that. And really how you feel about these five tight ends might shape how you should approach tight ends in your draft. If you see these names and you go, well, I'm not sure how I feel about them, then maybe you should prioritize those first four tight ends and go get one of them on draft day.

Or maybe you like the guys that you can get later and you just commit to streaming the position. It's so dependent on the individual draft. I mean, you look at an FCADP, Waller's at 66th overall. Hunter Henry is 99th overall. Well, if Hunter Henry's there in round nine, yes, I'm jumping on that every time. I'm pretty fine with taking the last

of these three in round eight and feeling good about it. Yeah. I really like the value play that these guys have. Okay. That's basically about it. We don't need to nitpick them. Okay. Right now. Fair enough. And then Gronkowski.

Last time we saw him, he wasn't good. 682 yards in 13 games. I mean, that's not terrible. But only three touchdowns. That was 2018. He was okay. Good enough to be a top 12 guy, but nothing special. The year before that, though, almost

1,100 yards and eight touchdowns in only 14 games. So what the heck do we expect from Rob Gronkowski? I don't think you can have expectations. Oh, complete. Well, I gave a projection for him earlier. It's complete BS. It's complete and total wildcard.

A believable statement. Okay. And then there's the whole Bruce Arians thing, too. Do you care about that? I think you're going to see this offense tailored mostly to what Brady's done with a little bit more of pushing Brady in a direction of look deep a little bit more. We're designing this play right here, calling it right now for you to take a shot to Mike Evans or maybe it's Gronk. I think Gronk makes a big impact in the red zone because I think it's going to be impossible for defenses to cover him and Evans and Godwin and the running backs out of the backfield when Tampa Bay gets inside the 20.

And so it's really going to come down to what defense they're playing, how they approach tight ends, and whether or not they will try and take away Gronk and take their chances with the other wide receivers because you can really only double-team one guy at a time. And my guess is that they're going to focus on Evans first. And that means that Gronk could get off to a real nice start this season. Well, and what we don't know is does Gronk need to be double teamed anymore? It's quite possible that one guy can cover him now. Yeah, we don't know anything. But I will say as far as the Arians concern, Adam, I'm putting

way more stock in Brady's history with Gronk than I am in Aryan's history with generic tight end insert name here. OJ Howard, do not call him a generic tight end. But every other one before Howard. We could have a worse name than generic for OJ Howard.

Oh, man. Free OJ Howard. All right. Next group, PPR in PPR tier. This is called Startworthy. This is the one that Dave alluded to is not really loving the value. Austin Hooper, Hayden Hurst, and Noah Fant. Do Hooper, Hurst, and Fant have the upside

of Ingram and Henry and Waller? Is it comparable or a significant step down? What do you think? Hurst does. If Hurst steps into the Austin Hooper role, which is open for him and a team that will throw a ton again, they always have with Dirk Cutter, he'll get the targets.

If he gets the type of targets that Austin Hooper was getting last year, he absolutely has the Darren Waller type upside. Those numbers, by the way, are 7.5 targets per game. And that was 2019. That's what Hooper averaged. It was 5.5 targets per game in 2018. So Hooper took a step forward in terms of target share last year. I think Hurst is going to have to earn it. But the good news is he might be able to earn that in the first two weeks of training camp where they just look at him and they go, okay, this guy's

going to be great. But we talk about Julio as a top 12-ish pick. We talk about Calvin Ridley as a top 40 pick. Is there truly enough there for Hayden Hurst to be better than what Austin Hooper has been the past couple of years, or is he going to be right about where Hooper

was, which isn't a bad thing it's not a bad thing and it makes drafting him at this point a great value and it almost pushes hurst up to where ben has him and to where heath has him but he's never done it before he's he's an older player he's got an injury track record there's a lot that just doesn't make him a seamless fit into into atlanta's offense but he's about the same size as Hooper. He might be a little bit faster than Hooper. So if the lack of experience can be overcome, yeah, he could end up being one of the best bargains in draft day.

And to be clear, he doesn't have to be better than Austin Hooper to be better than where even Ben and I have him ranked. Where do you guys have him ranked? Eighth? Austin Hooper was a top four tied in on a per-game basis last year, and he was number six the year before. If he's just Austin Hooper, he's a value of where we're drafting him. If he's worse than Austin Hooper,

then he could still be as good as where we have. What I find interesting, let's say Hayden Hurst does not do this I'm already projecting 150 plus targets for Julio and a huge increase for Calvin Ridley at 130 and Russell Gage getting close to 100 targets and this near the same amount of targets going to the running backs and there's still 100 targets left for Hayden Hurst I don't know like if Hayden Hurst doesn't step into that role that's got to mean that the Falcons are either running the ball more or someone that we're not paying attention to is getting a bunch of targets. Yeah. That was the point I was going to make as well. When you do projections,

I have a lot of issues with projections, even though I do them and I love them. I have a lot of problems with distilling everything down to one projected number. But one thing you notice for sure is the depth of a team. And Atlanta is the most concentrated passing game in the league, bar none. I don't think there's another one that I would rank as more concentrated. Yes, Julio and Calvin Ridley, I'm projecting for 159 and 134 targets for their top two guys. Just absolutely monster lines. I think they're both going to be top 10 wide receivers. But behind Hayden Hurst, then you go to Russell Gage, Laquan Treadwell. Their number two tight end is either going to be Kari Lee,

who was playing in the XFL this spring, or Jaden Graham, who played a little bit at the end of last year. I think they like Graham. Yeah, and maybe he gets some targets, but he wasn't a huge weapon when Hooper was hurt at the end of last year. I just don't see how you project. You'd have to

project him for 70 or 80 targets, basically. Like you said, there's a lot of volume left over in this offense when you project it out. Okay, bring it up every time, but last eight games of the year, Falcons gave up 18.6 points per game and went six and two. The first eight games, they gave up 31.25 points per game.

They saved their coach's job. Their defense got a lot better. I don't know that we buy it. I think we expect them to have a bad defense, but it is possible that they turned a corner last year. Their last eight games at 18.63 points per game. That is outstanding. And again, they went six and two year, their last eight games, at 18.63 points per game. That is outstanding. And again, they went 6-2.

However, in those games, Matt Ryan still threw 41 passes per game. Right, because Dirk Cutter. I mean, that's the Dirk Cutter effect. When he was with Atlanta early in the 2010s, when he was with Tampa Bay, and when he was back with Atlanta last year, I agree with you. Atlanta's defense could be better.

No, I'm not saying that. I'm just saying it was better. I still think it's going to be terrible. Yeah, but I still think even if they are good, Dirk Cutter's going to call a lot of passes. That's something you can kind of bank on, which is good to know for fantasy.

I dropped their pass attempts 10% from last year and still had to give Hayden Hurst 100 targets. Okay. Maybe I should say I think their defense will be bad, not necessarily terrible.

Okay. You talk about him being Austin Hooper the last two years because Austin Hooper has been the number six tight end in fantasy two straight years. But completely different circumstances. One year was 13 games, one year was 16 games. Like 2018 Austin Hooper, this is why tight end sucks. He was the number six tight end with 660 yards and four touchdowns. Like that's

not an impactful year. It's just, that's why Travis Kelsey is great because the number six tight end often has numbers like that. Um, but last year he, he had 787 yards and six touchdowns, but before the injury, he was the number one tight end in fantasy. He was on pace with almost 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns on 119 targets. Hooper took this massive step up. We're talking about Hayden Hurst, but Hooper's also in this group, and so is Noah Fantz.

You have to wonder if Hooper has some of that left in him, even though he's changing teams. We can poo-poo the landing spot all we want, but Cleveland spent a lot of money to have him there. I'm sure it's to help take pressure off of all their other offensive weapons and to give Baker Mayfield a big red zone threat.

I almost view Hugh Hooper the same way I view Gronk. I think he's going to be big in the red zone for the Browns. I think with the run game being what it is for Cleveland, they could get in the red zone a decent amount of times. Yeah. I have them projected for the same number of targets and receptions, Gronk and Hooper. So that's a.

Okay. Let's do observation. Go to the last, go to the last tier here, stream worthy. And maybe some of these guys are start worthy. Maybe you draft two of them and see what happens. Gasicki,

Cook, John, who Smith, Dallas Goddard, Jack Doyle, Jace Sternberger, Eric Ebron, TJ Hawkinson, and Ian Thomas. Gasicki, Cook, Jonu Smith, Dallas Goddard, Jack Doyle, Jace Sternberger, Eric Ebron, TJ Hawkinson, and Ian Thomas. I know Ben loves my Gasicki here. You've heard me say a lot of times I have no

problem waiting and waiting and taking Jared Cook as like the 12th tight end off the board or whatever. And he could be my starter. Heath, who's your guy in this group? Definitely John O. Smith is my favorite in the group. And then I'll throw out one more that I don't know if I heard his name or not, but Blake Jarwin should also, I definitely consider him as somebody like they, they might start the year out in a shootout with the Rams and the Falcons, their first two games. I, I wouldn't mind starting with Jarwin at all. Yeah. That's a, that's a guy that I projected a lot higher than I thought because there's a lot of wide receiver weapons and people are concerned.

But if you look at the Cowboys last year, another concentrated offense, their top five main guys all had seven or more targets. And I believe no one else on their offense had more than like 25 targets except Jarwin. He was the one guy, their third tight end Dalton Schultz had like three or four targets all year. And they gave Jarwin this extension. It's pretty clear. He's going to be their number one tight end.

And if they're very concentrated again in an 11 personnel setup where they have three receivers getting a lot of targets, plus their tight end getting a lot of targets and not a lot of other guys involved jarwin winds up coming out pretty good in projections another guy i'd throw out is chris herndon that i think is in this group as well okay i'm not a herndon fan um but i i just one more point to make on jarwin for whatever this is worth tight end targets in dallas with dakcott, they've averaged 106.5 per year. That includes one year where they were Dak targeted tight ends 92 times. There was no Jason Witten. That's 2018.

Oh, okay. All right. So here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to go just around the, around the room. I'm going to give you each one player and I want you to give me two to three sentences on how we should feel about this player.

I'm going to start with Dave with Mike Kosicki. Tons of upside. Absolutely worth the value in an offense that's got potential to throw more often than not week in and week out. I think that was like one sentence

with a lot of commas. I finally stopped talking. Prepositional phrases. Heath, Jared Cook. Gross, regression, don't. Three words. All right, Ben, Johnnie Smith.

Everything you said at the top of the show, I bumped him up 15 targets because of that. There you go. Dallas Goddard. Dave. A league winner of Zekerts gets hurt four or five targets per game if he doesn't. Jack Doyle

for Heath. Super sneaky PPR tight end. He was a starting tight end the last time Eric Ebron wasn't there. Jace Sternberger for Ben. I don't see it.

Behind Graham last year, Mercedes Lewis and Robert Tanyan both got between 15 and 20 targets and Sternberger didn't get a single regular season target. He did catch a playoff touchdown. But I don't see, like, they're giving him a chance to start. I don't see how he's the clear number one tight end in a run-heavy

offense. Eric Ebron, Dave Sternberger has good athleticism and potential to be better than just a red zone threat for the Packers and maybe even their number two receiver this year. That's what I think of Eric Ebron. Okay.

You definitely don't feel that way about Ebron. TJ Hockinson. Do you want some words on Ebron or no? go go I think the Steelers are going to use him the same way the Colts did which is as a red zone threat I think he's potentially bad

news for all the other receivers in Pittsburgh as gross as that sounds TJ Hockinson, Heath massive upside based on his pedigree and skill level probably needs an injury to one of the wide receivers in my opinion. And finally, Ben, Ian Thomas. Yeah, another really good athlete.

My concern is that he's probably going to see a lot of his targets in the short area of the field, which is where Carolina just funnel so many targets to Christian McCaffrey and DJ more, and even potentially Curtis Samuel, if Robbie Anderson kind of takes over the deep role and Samuel plays more around the line of scrimmage. And that to me means that Thomas is going to be potentially boxed out of a high target role,

basically. Okay. We're going to take a quick break here and read some emails when we come back on Fantasy Football today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days.

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Our first email is from Anthony in a beach town in New Jersey, Dave. Is Asbury Park on the beach? I don't think so. Wildwood, I think. Okay, Wildwood. 12-team PPR, three receivers, and a flex. Six points per passing touchdown. I need to keep one of the following.

Miles Sanders in the sixth round, Chris Godwin in the ninth round, or Lamar Jackson in the 12th round. Man, that is tough. Godwin. Godwin. I can see the case for Sanders. I don't think I would keep Lamar. I'm going to say Sanders.

None of us are going to say Lamar. Wow. Yeah. Two Chris Godwins and a Miles Sanders. No matter what. Yeah. Justin from a college town north of Sacramento, California. Let's go with...

Where's Washington State? Where do they play? Pullman. Pullman. Pullman, Washington. I knew that. I'm going to Keeper League. Keep one player for up to three years at the round drafted for each year kept. I have the first

pick. In this type of league, would you reach on a player such as Jonathan Taylor at 3.1 or like a J.K. Dobbins at 7.1 in hopes of using them as a keeper for next year, but still provide potential value this year as well.

So the question is, you know, in a keeper league where you can keep a player up to three years, do you reach for rookies? So, you know, maybe, maybe not great this year,

but the next two years you could have really awesome value. And now we've reached the part of the podcast where Ben Gretsch gets to talk about Jonathan Taylor. Make it away, Ben. Hey, I saw the other day that PFF graded all the offensive lines, and the Colts have the number one offensive line by their recommendation, which is also they have the number one easiest schedule, and they improve their defense. And I think we keep mentioning the Colts are a very underrated team,

and they're going to run the ball a ton because they're going to win like 12 games this year. So just throwing that out there. yeah they have to answer the question and say yeah and i actually like dobbins better for this strategy he's a great option in the seventh if something happens to ingram this year he should be a star even if something doesn't happen to ingram this year when keeper season comes around next year ingram's probably not going to be there anymore and then you have dobbins at a clear value as a seventh rounder. Okay, how about No Name Here. No Name or City, Dave. Who's this from?

This is from Bill in Nantucket. This is actually from Tommy Lee Jones somewhere in the Southwest. Howdy there, Llewellyn, Carson, Ed, Tom, and Anton. That's No Country for Old Men,

right? I was thinking it was one of those movies. Yeah, that's why I went with Tommy Lee Jones. Where does that movie take place? Is that in Texas? Do we know? You could probably look it up. It's a hell of a movie. That is one of the best movies of the last 20 years.

Which patriot is more likely to actually become fantasy relevant, Nikhil Harry or Damien Harris? It's a hell of a movie. It's one of the best movies in the last 20 years. Which Patriot is more likely to actually become fantasy relevant? Nikhil Harry or Damien Harris? More likely to become is Nikhil Harry for me. Yeah. And I really like Harris coming out, but Harry's going to have

a better opportunity to start the year. What was that, Heath? Yeah, sure. Heath, have you seen No Country for Old Men? Yeah. And what'd you think? It was good.

That's it, just good? Okay. It was very good. I enjoyed it. Okay, yeah, it's good. This is from Matthew Cutters. Dear Michael, Val, George, Christian, and Ben. Batman. Batman. Please, Ben, tell me I didn't screw this up.

I traded rookie picks number five, number nine, and number 15 for A.J. Brown in our non-PPR Dynasty League. Number five, nine, and 15 for A.J. Brown. Finally, we get to see her. Let's hear it. I don't think you screwed it up that bad. Oh my gosh.

We're looking at probably Lambert Judy should have been that fifth pick. Yeah. Probably Lambert Judy. And if not, one of the top three running backs lamb judy or dobbins yeah i'd say dobbins because number nine i think you're gonna like the wide receiver at number nine better than the running back at number nine it's uh it so i mean an elite yeah i mean this is an overpay but an elite Dynasty player, you typically expect to pay multiple firsts for, right?

And so the question is, where do you value AJ Brown? I value him in the second round of startups. I mean, maybe not non-PPR. This is definitely a lot. And he's right. Like, my initial thought is, I don't know if I would pay this much for AJ Brown because there's a lot of players he could get at 5, 9, and 15.

But I don't think he screwed it up that bad when you really think about value. Let me ask you this, Heath. 5, 9, and 15 for DJ Moore or for Chris Godwin. Chris Godwin, what do you think? Too much? I think it's probably still too much,

but I could understand it a little bit more because I think for me, DJ Moore and Chris Godwin are both already top 10 wide receivers and are going to help me win a lot more this year. And they're really don't like five years from now, they're probably just as good as AJ Brown. So I it's,

I still think it's a little too much, but I'd be more likely to do it. Okay. And then non PPR again, probably not, again, probably not, not, this is probably not the best move because you can,

if you can get JK Dobbins plus, you know, two receivers probably at nine and 15. It's a lot. Yeah. I mean, in theory, you might be able to get like your number one wide receiver and another good wide receiver and burrow.

Maybe. Okay. All right. Well, look, if A.J. Brown is awesome, then it might not be that big of an overpay. Like, if he is as good as Chris Godwin or D.J. Moore, we shall see. Thank you to Matthew and the rest of the emailers. Thank you to all of you for listening.

Tomorrow, we're going to do a mailbag. We're going to do some games. We're going to have some fun. We're going to have to figure out which games we're going to play. It's going to be a late night for me. Coming up with some cool stuff. Maybe we'll do Fantasy Jeopardy in one of the categories. It'll be Azer stats.

We'll see if you can guess my craziness. That sounds amazing. Yeah, we'll see. All right, thanks a lot, everybody. We'll talk to you on Friday. Go win your league.