Fantasy Football Today - 🚨 Todd Gurley Released! What's the Fantasy Impact? (03/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 19, 2020

The most dominant player in Fantasy in 2017 and 2018 has been released. What does Todd Gurley have left in the tank? What will the Rams offense look like going forward? Is this good news or bad news for Jared Goff? And are we excited about Darrell Henderson?  'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox, Bullhorn and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Todd Gurley, in the last three years, he has gone from being the number one running back in both formats in 2017, to number one in non-PPR, number three in PPR in 2018, to number 12 in non-PPR, number 14 in PPR in 2019, to released in 2020. The Rams releasing Todd Gurley today. It is Thursday, March 19th. We're doing a bonus pod here. I'm Adam Azer with Ben Gretsch and Heath Cummings. Heath, what's your immediate reaction to Todd Gurley being released?

Everyone's going to draft Daryl Henderson too high. No, I don't. That was the first thing that came to my mind when I first started hearing people like tweet about it is Daryl Henderson season. And I hope that it is. There were some exciting things that he showed us in college. It's also true that last year he was firmly behind Malcolm Brown. And there's still time for the Rams to add someone else.

So it's going to be interesting in Los Angeles. Ben, what is your immediate reaction to Todd Gurley being released? It's kind of wild. My immediate reaction was I can't believe they couldn't find a trade partner. It would have been a lot more advantageous for them on the cap. I assume that they were looking to add a pick and kind of do a salary dump. You know, David Johnson traded us in a great example because Hopkins went back the other way, but the Brock Osweiler won a few years ago where they sent Osweiler and a second for a late round pick to the Browns just to get rid of his contract.

The Texans did that. That was what I was kind of expecting, maybe Gurley in a third for a fifth or something. But we didn't see that, right? They had to cut him. And so that tells you that around the league, there's not a lot of optimism about Gurley. And there wasn't a lot of optimism for the Rams, obviously. They didn't want to eat another $10 million. And they didn't want to restructure him, which would have been another option.

Presumably, they would have had to kick in more money. So they didn't want to go any further into this deal than they had to, and they're going to take a bunch of dead money because of it. But it tells you, not just for the Rams, but for everybody, not a lot of optimism in Todd Gurley's future. So we'll get into Gurley, I guess, a little bit and where we'd like to see him go. But let's talk about the Rams. I mean, is there a fantasy impact here? Let's start with the passing game that we could talk about. Daryl Henderson, who was by the way,

the third running back drafted last year behind Josh Jacobs and miles Sanders. He was the 70th overall pick. I think six or seven picks into the third round and the Rams drafted Daryl Henderson. They also use Malcolm Brown last year. But in terms of the passing game, what do you think? Does this affect them at all, Heath?

The thing that I, and I'm just writing up the projections, the thing that I struggled with with the Rams was Tyler Higbee's late season breakout and kind of the weird way that it happened. And the Rams had been very heavy on throwing to their backs early in Sean McVay's tenure and then kind of abandoned it last year. And a lot of those targets went to Higby and then some of the Brandon Cook's targets went to Higby as well. And so I do think that there is a possibility that this is a signal that some of what we saw from Higby in the second half could be more sustainable than I previously thought.

I obviously don't think he's going to be the best tight end in the history of the universe, but I feel more confident in him as a top 10 option than I did before this. What do you think, Ben? Any big impact here? Because obviously we want to do these bonus pods and react to things that are fantasy relevant.

I don't know what really is fantasy relevant here, and that's fine. It's fine to say, hey, it's not a huge change in anyone's value in particular. I'd also point out that Gurley, I think you could see the slippage not necessarily in his yards per carry, but in his yards per catch. Maybe they stopped throwing him because he was terrible in the passing game. I mean, this guy, 6.7 yards per catch. That is ugly, especially for him because he was at 12.3 and 9.8 the two previous seasons.

But do you think there's something big and fantasy relevant here with the Rams when it comes to releasing Gurley? I don't think that I will change my expectations for their passing game too much, although I agree with Heath. It's going to be tough to figure out what they're're going to do they were very 11 personnel heavy in 2018 um you know there's been a lot of talk that they kind of got figured out in the super bowl that year and then came back this past year and it didn't work as well they started incorporating the tight

end late with tyler higby i i don't really know what we'll see with the passing game but i don't think this move changes that a bunch i i want to go back to daryl henderson though this guy was a really good prospect out of memphis uh really um strong dominator rating in terms of like how how productive he was in their backfield caught a lot of balls really a efficient runner really high yards per carry um and tested well great you know good pretty good 40 yard dash time for his size he's a he's a 5'8 back but he's 208 he's a smaller thicker back this is a guy that i think could be very very good now he's right they didn't use him a lot last year but they also traded up to get him there's a reason fantasy drafters were excited about him they talked about how much they

liked him i don't know why they didn't use him a lot last year but i you know there's there's things that have to go right that they can't bring in another back but i don't know that they will because todd girley's dead money is going to be so much they're already they're already investing a lot at running back so will they go get another back or will they go with henderson and brown and if they go with henderson and brown i i really like henderson yeah i want to clarify when i said i thought people were going to overdraft henderson it's that i like right now my very first glance at his projections has him around 215 touches around a thousand yards and seven or eight touchdowns which is right around the number 30 running back like i i don't think think, I think I'd rather have Henderson than Brown for sure. And it's a possibility that he was just like a rookie quarterback

and really wasn't ready for the NFL, but after an offseason, he's roared and ready to go. The one other thing I will say is, Rams running backs combined over the past three years have averaged 21.3 touchdowns. Yeah. So, like, either their offense is going to score a lot less or a running back is going to score a lot of touchdowns or they're going to throw more in the red

zone, which could be another big touchdown season for Jared Goff. We've seen it before. Jared Goff was third in the NFL in passing yards last year. The two guys ahead of him, Jameis Winston, 5,100 yards, 33 touchdowns, passes. Dak Prescott, 4,900 yards, 30 touchdowns. Jared Goff, 4,638, so 4,638 yards, only 22 touchdowns.

Are the Rams getting away from being a run-heavy team? Are they going to be more of a pass-oriented team? Are they going to make a commitment, I guess, to the passing game? And is there touchdown regression for Jared Goff? I actually think he led the NFL in pass attempts last year. He was tied with Jameis Winston. What do you think? Yes, 100% there is touchdown regression coming for jared goff it's

what like other than ryan tannahill not being as good as he was last year that's probably the regression i feel most confident at quarterback he had a touchdown rate 2017 5.9 2018 5.7 last year 3.5 i would say i think i'm projecting out right around 4.5%, which is pretty close to league average, maybe 4.6%, 4.7%. If they throw 600 passes again, that's going to mean close to 30 touchdown passes. I think I have him projected for 27 right now. He's a borderline number one quarterback. I know that they brought back Blythe.

I know they brought back Whitworth on their offensive line. They need offensive line help, I would think. And their first pick as of now, unless the Rams can make a trade with Brandon Cooks or something, their first pick is 52nd overall. So I think I asked you this a couple weeks ago or something. I'm going to ask you again, Ben, how confident are you in the Rams offense,

which has gone in the last three years from first, second, 11th in scoring. 11th isn't bad, but we know it was a struggle. But the premier offense in the NFL, basically, it's no longer that. How confident are you in the Rams offense? I'm pretty confident. I'm looking, and I think there's going to be a lot of recency bias, but I'm looking at 2017 and 2018 and what sean mcveigh did so well um and i i like i said

i think they kind of had to adjust on the fly last year because so many team defenses it seemed had had studied the the game plan from the super bowl the year before they had a little bit of a super bowl hangover what have you i think last year's kind of the floor and i know people are gonna think that's crazy because todd girley is such a great talent but you know what todd girley did last year wasn't very great and i think whatever they get out of their backs this year can at least match that um i don't know that they can be as good as todd girley was in his prime in his you know 2017 2018 heyday but he makes a great point when their offense was humming in 2017 and 2018 todd girley scored three more total touchdowns than any other player in the

league both years. They're running backs, and mostly Gurley got in the end zone a ton. If this offense does improve at all, if they get better along the line, which you talked about, they had a big drop off last year in line play, and are able to get back, even you said first and second in points and then down to 11th, if they're able to get back even you know you said first and second and points and then down to 11th if they're about to get able to get back to around fifth or sixth and scoring i mean this is even even 11th isn't bad obviously i mean this is a great spot for some running back to be very productive and and i like henderson ceiling the most out of him and brown but yeah i think i'll be targeting both heath you share that optimism i am optimistic

like i trust sean mcveigh for the most part still offensively so i don't feel very confident in how they're going to have a lot of success but i do feel confident that they are going to have success i don't know if you guys have any numbers to support this but from what i've seen heard read understand jared goff is basically a pro bowler when he has time and he's nick foals when he does it like he's or even worse than that he is so affected by the offensive line and i guess what just scares me is like their left tackle is getting worse and older and they just resigned him. And he's older than Sean McVay and they don't have any draft capital. So I just like, I need to see them upgrade their offensive line. And I don't know

how they can do that at this point. They have mortgaged their future to bring in Sammy Watkins, Brandon Cooks, Jalen Ramsey. And he is not good when the offensive line is not good. And he is awesome when the offensive line holds up. So that's really going to be the key for him. I mean, you could say that's the key for every team, but I just think for Jared Goff, it might be more so for him than almost any other fantasy relevant quarterback in football. But yeah, and I think that's why they went to more tight ends late last year, right? so 11 personnel you're relying a lot on your your five offensive linemen you you know make tight ends more of a

focal point and you can mix things up i mean i know this seems counterintuitive because higby was doing so much in the passing game so it's not like he was staying in the block a lot but it can help you with protections for sure it can can help you disguise things. And I think that was part of the reason they did that, and it did help their passing game a little bit down the stretch. It'll be interesting to see what McVay does from here, from a scheme perspective. Goff really did finish strong. A lot of it was

two games against the Cardinals, but he was the top five or six quarterback the last five weeks of the year, which coincided with that Higby stretch. So for Gurley, Heath, where would you like to see Todd Gurley end up? Is there any place that would get you excited to draft him? I would be excited to draft him if he went to Tampa Bay. I would be excited to draft him if he went to Atlanta. That might be it. Those are the two places I can think of that, like, I'm not going to draft him like we did two or three years ago,

but I'd be excited to draft him as a number two running back in either of those spots. And, Ben, I don't know what we're going to see from Gurley this year, but it's hard to be that optimistic, given the fact that he just got cut and nobody wanted to acquire him in trade. This just says something about running backs. Maybe Le'Veon Bell does too,

but for dynasty owners out there, I mean, what lesson are we learning about? Todd Gurley was the best player in fantasy by leaps and bounds. Two years ago. Two years ago. Two years ago, and then even 2017, obviously. 2018, before he got hurt, man, he was better than, I think he was better than he was in 2017.

If not, he was very similar. I mean, just again, he was like LaDainian Tomlinson. It has gone so south so quickly for him. What lessons are we learning from this I mean I think you just said him I I think you know it's not just him it's Le'Veon Bell it's David Johnson um and so what what does that mean for Christian McCaffrey what does that mean for Saquon Barkley what does that mean for Alvin Kamara um you know Barkley and Kamara both of them had high ankle sprains this year and we saw their play fall off. They didn't recover well. I think all three of those guys are younger. Ezekiel Elliott is the one that I think I'm most concerned about when we sit here and talk about it and people don't want to, you know, think about what long term could mean for Ezekiel Elliott. Well, he's led the league in rushing, I think, three or four years in a row,

or at least rushing yards per game. I know he did the first three years of his career. Probably per game because he had the suspension, yeah. Okay, so yeah. But he's also taken just a ton of hits. He's had a ton of rush attempts. He's the guy that, for me, I'm looking at and going, I don't want to invest in him

anymore i i'm concerned about his health he has never had major injuries and we thought you know todd girley and levy on bell and david johnson were unbreakable just a couple of years ago and all that sounds really crazy right now and that's he's the guy that i'm worried most worried about it makes me worried about derrick henry and the 400 touches he had, if you include the playoffs last year. McCaffrey and Barkley, I'm a little, and Kamara, I'm a little less concerned about, especially McCaffrey and Kamara because of how many of their touches are in the passing game. They're kind of different, newer age backs. So it's interesting but yeah i mean these are like it's hard to think back to two or three years ago what we thought about todd girley and where we're at now and how quick that decline was

but you have to consider that right you have to consider that heath final thought who's the next todd girley the next great running back to fall off the map? Yeah. Why would you do that? I don't want to predict anybody. That's such a terrible question. You want me to do it? It's much more of an Acer thing to do. Melvin Gordon. He's already there.

I don't know about that. Too late. Too late. There was a report out today that he's not received an offer anywhere close to what he was offered last year. Well, nobody's going to pay running back close to what he was offered last year. Well, nobody's going to pay running back. You're crazy to pay running backs.

Fine. So who's the next? Derek Henry. I think it's Zeke, yeah, or Henry. Henry would be a good choice if there was a good choice. Marshawn Lynch, I think. All right, that's it for our bonus pod thanks for listening everybody have a great weekend we'll talk to you either

on Monday or when something crazy happens on Friday see ya