Fantasy Football Today - Tom Brady, Sean Payton and Rankings Disputes! (02/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 1, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  We've got a lot of big news to cover! We react to Tom Brady's retirement (2:00), the Broncos acquiring Sean Payton (8:35), the Texans hiring DeMeco Ryans and more from around the NFL including the 49ers quarterback situation ... Let's have some offseason rankings disputes, starting with a QB debate: Kirk Cousins vs. Dak Prescott (21:05). Can Cousins reach new heights, or do we know who he is at this point? ... How come none of us ranked Josh Jacobs in the Top 6 at running back (27:15)? We also debate Nick Chubb vs. Najee Harris (35:00) and Tee Higgins vs. Garrett Wilson (43:10) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Big, big news to cover on today's show. We got two new head coaches. Tom Brady retiring again. Dave made the Pro Bowl. He's one of the AFC quarterback alternates. They'll let anybody. Stop, stop, stop.

I'm not going to go. Why not? I have some pre-existing commitments. I'm not going to be able to make the Pro Bowl. I got to mow my lawn. Got to of you know Clip my toenail if you're in congratulations Heath No

I am declining because I feel disrespected that Dave got chosen to be an alternate before I was and so I will also not be Attending but you're ahead of Jamie Jamie. You're in the Pro Bowl Just behind Tyler Huntley sweet Sweet. Almost three touchdowns. Cool. Uh, also backup quarterback from this point forward when they sign a contract should include a half a million dollar pro bowl bonus in their contract just in case this goofy thing happens. Yeah, that was kind of crazy, man. I mean, it's weird, but Tyler Huntley is a pro bowler anyway. Um, in all seriousness, we do have a lot of news to get to today. Also going to do some rankings disputes, Kirk cousins versus Dak Prescott.

They're close, but Heath does not have Cousins in the top 12. For Jamie and Heath, Cousins is toward the bottom of the top 12. But we'll talk about those two guys. None of us, when we did our rankings several weeks ago, about a month ago, none of us had Josh Jacobs in the top six. Why not? Najee Harris versus Nick Chubb. Dave is the only one who had Harris in the top 12 when he did

his initial rankings and Garrett what's that I just said yeah yeah uh and Garrett Wilson versus T Higgins we'll talk about that uh as well okay let's go to Tom Brady retiring and I mean what's the angle here we should I just play last year's episode when you retired or like yeah there's lots of angles so what do you want to talk about I want to talk about the Bucs receivers something I think the two big ones are the Bucs receivers and like we already didn't have enough starting quarterbacks in the NFL. This is one fewer guy to fill a third of the league who needs a new quarterback. It's a good time to be Jimmy Garoppolo. Derek Carr. Go ahead, Jamie.

The South is so terrible. The South? So what do you think about Godwin and Evans? Chris Godwin, his three best seasons in terms of yards per target were the three he played without Tom Brady. Mike Evans' two best yards per target seasons were the two before Tom Brady. And I think it's just, you know, Brady threw short and threw quickly. Before that, it was Jameis and Ryan Fitzpatrick, very different quarterbacks.

But, you know, Jamie, what do you think just right now, the general outlook for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans specifically? I mean, it's... And you have to stick to this all the way through September. No, no. This is definitive. I think Godwin will still be fine. I think his game will hopefully translate to whoever quarterback he plays with.

Evans, look, he's a concern. You know, he needs somebody that could throw downfield with success at this point in his career, I think. He can still make plays in that regard. But, you know, if it's a young or, you know, backup like Kyle Trask, for example, I guess you'll put him in the young category. It's going to be bad. So Garoppolo would be fine. Derek Carr would be fine for those guys. It's not exciting.

It's not, oh my gosh, they have to overspend for those type of receivers. But you're losing a guy that has made these guys very successful for the last three seasons. So that's not fun. Do we think that both Evans and Godwin are on the Bucs next year? That's what I was going to say. I think Godwin is. But I wonder if Evans is

not. Because there will be teams that are looking for those types of downfield wide receivers, certainly big wide receivers like Mike Evans. And the Bucs could have some cap issues and they could alleviate some of it. Some of it they need to restructure Brady's deal, and that will get done.

But some of it could be by moving on from Evans. And I wonder if there is an opportunity for another team that's looking for a number one receiver to make a play for Evans, a team that's looking to try and make a Super Bowl run, and they fancy themselves being a wide receiver away. Maybe they can't get their hands on DeAndre Hopkins. I wonder if Evans is someone that they look into. I still think he has some value as a number one type of wide receiver still.

Won't be for very long. The question, though, is they're not getting Devontae Adams, Tyreek Hill compensation in return. No chance. So do they settle for a Mark Cooper compensation in return? Yeah, if it helps their cap and they know they're rebuilding, then yeah. If that's the move, then yes. But if it's just to alleviate cap concerns, I mean, he's somebody I would think that's a Tampa Bay Buccaneer for life,

but you would have said the same thing about Adams. You would have said the same thing about Tom Brady when he was with the Patriots. But that was his choice. Yeah. The, the Twitter trade that I saw already floated this morning. I don't remember who it was. I'm sorry.

Good trade though. Chris Godwin, number 19 and a 2024 first. Oh, wow. For number one. Who would take that? Well, I guess it's 2-1.

The Bears get two firsts and Godwin for the first pick. I don't know. That's a big drop from 1 to 19. That's still a big haul, though. If that's a better haul than what they could get trading with Houston or Indy, then maybe that's the move they make. Houston is almost certainly not moving up in trade. I don't think they need to unless they really love a guy.

Indy could, and Carolina could too from nine. Well, by the way, you say Amari Cooper compensation. That was a fifth-round pick and a swap of sixth-round picks for Amari Cooper. So I think they'll do better than that. Do you need the rest of the teams that might go after a receiver? No, no. It's not like it's an easy guy to move. I feel like they'll do better than that. Do you need the list of teams that might go after a permanent receiver? No, no. It's not like it's an easy guy to move. I feel like they'll do better than that.

That was such little compensation. But, yeah, just giving people context. I mean, I had forgotten. I had to look it up and exactly remember what the Browns had given up for Amari Cooper. I don't know if fans remember. Yeah. Denver acquired Sean Payton and a third-round pick a third round pick in 2024 for a first round pick. What?

What'd I do? Dave goes, that's it. We're done with Brady. I mean, what do you want me to say? We don't have to be done with Brady. You want to keep talking about Brady?

Well, I'd like to know what this means for Kate Ott and Adam. Now you're making fun of me for not, for moving on? Like, I don't get it. Am I supposed to talk more about him or am I supposed to talk less about the situation? I don't get it. Brady is done and we spend

a couple of minutes on the receivers and now we're on to Sean Payton and what it means for Russell Wilson. Oh my god! He's the greatest quarterback ever. Big, okay, great. He retired again. If it were the first time he were retiring for Russell. Oh my God. He's the greatest quarterback ever. Big. Okay, great. He retired again. If it were the first time he were retiring, fine.

I ran a Twitter poll at him. Let's see how good you can, how well you can guess the results. Will Tom Brady play another snap in the NFL? Yes or no. No. And see results. Of course.

Yeah. I voted see results. I vote no. And I'll say no. It was 71%. That was pretty pretty good I think it was 74 no 20 yes do any of you think we should be stashing him in a dynasty

league just in case he comes back oh I wouldn't drop him not yet yeah you got plenty of time to make that move okay Dave one more question about Tom Brady. Is this the second retirement or the third? It's the third, right?

Third? I thought he eventually first retired from the Patriots and then chose to go to Tampa Bay. I don't remember that. No. Okay, so just the second. We would have done a bonus podcast if he had retired the first time. I don't remember that. No. Okay, so just a second. We would have done a bonus podcast if he had retired the first time. I don't think so.

All right, I think I'm ready to move on. Let's talk about Sean Payton going to the Broncos. So it's Sean Payton and a 2024 third-round pick to Denver for the 29th overall pick this year and a 2024 second-round pick. All right, Dave, how big of a deal is this for Russell Wilson in the passing game? So Brady had six seasons where he threw at least 35 passes, 35 touchdown passes, and they all came after that beautiful 2007 season. Okay, what does this mean for Denver?

Moving on. Moving on. I think it's interesting. I think Russ showed toward the end of the season last year that maybe play calling is important to him, and if proper play calls are made and proper personnel are on the field for him, he can be good, at least for fantasy, if not to keep the Broncos competitive. I think Sean Payton will use him the right way,

even if that means going back to doing a lot of the things that Russ wanted to do, but didn't get to do in the first 12, 14 weeks in Denver. And a lot of what he did in Seattle, it wouldn't make sense for Sean Payton to force him into doing things that he wasn't comfortable with, because we've seen what happens when he's put in a situation where he's not comfortable. He's got to be able to move around,

take advantage of that mobility, and maybe scheme up the receivers to be open a little bit more and use the tight end a little bit more and just have a little bit more consistency across the board on offense. I think Sean Payton will do that, and I think Sean Payton will get something good out of Russell Wilson, and Russell Wilson's somebody that I'm interested in taking with a late pick again. Would you guys rather have Russell Wilson or Daniel Jones? Daniel Jones. Assuming that the receiving core is

fixed in New York. Just because, again, the rushing upside there, if you're going to get a 700-yard rusher, that's hard to pass up. Right. How many quarterbacks are going to be able to do that? So I think the thing you want to see with Russell Wilson is, you know, how much of it truly was on Nathaniel Hackett,

how much of it was on, you know, the fact that we saw missed games from Jerry Judy and just, you know, the lack of consistency with that receiving court. And look, a lot of the allure, I think, for Wilson, not that it was a huge sticking point, but point but you know having another option in the passing game you know tim patrick wasn't supposed to be part of this and you know getting him back i think will help obviously sean payton's had success with small quarterbacks before you know drew breeze and russell wilson similar stature will he be the type of accurate passer that breeze was i mean he

was you know the most accurate passer of all time. I don't think we expect that from Russ. So how will he fit into that system? Or will Sean Payton cater his skill set more to what the offense will look like? So there's a lot at play here. Jermonte Williams coming back as well from his injury. So will they lean a little bit more on their ground game? And how much will the running backs matter in the passing game? Because we know that's been a big part of Sean Payton's offense in New Orleans,

how he's thrown to his back. So I mean, there's a lot to like about this, clearly, because he's one of the better play callers that we've seen, and he's certainly had a lot of great offenses. So, you know, this is a big plus for everybody. And then it's just a matter of, it's a good comparison, you know, Russ versus Daniel Jones versus Tua versus Cousins versus those guys that are going to be at the back end of, you know,

a few different people's top 12 lists. So, he's back in the good graces of fantasy managers. At least he should be following this move. He, from a projection standpoint, what changes when you go to Sean Payton here? Because Jamie mentioned a lot of running back catches. Breeze wasn't really, I mean, I don't really remember the entirety

of Breeze's career in New Orleans, but toward the end, he certainly wasn't a downfield passer, which is part of the reason why he was so accurate, but I mean like a ton of catches, whereas Wilson's been a guy who didn't throw as much, but he threw downfield a lot. So, you know, how do you, um, how do you kind of, uh, balance out the histories of Russell Wilson and the histories of, I guess, Drew Breeze? Yeah, I think that's the tough thing to know is like, I've seen a lot of, well, he's not going to complete 70% of his passes like Drew Breeze did, and he probably won't, but if he's not going to complete 70% of his passes like Drew Brees did. And he probably won't.

But if he's back just being the quarterback he was, he was completing 66% of his passes with 9 to 10 intended air yards per attempt. Brees was completing 70% with 6 air yards per attempt. So can Russell Wilson do that? I don't know if he can anymore, but I do think that I'm probably, once I get through projections, going to be a Russell Wilson bounce-back candidate guy. He'll probably be somewhere between 13 and 15 in my quarterback rankings, I would guess. And in terms of how we distribute the targets,

I will probably go with a blend of what Peyton has done in the past and what Russ has done in the past. I think you have to view Jerry Judy as the number one wide receiver, but he won't get the Michael Thomas target share. And I think it's probably a boost in targets for Javante Williams, assuming he's okay. All right,

Dave, can I go to the next news item? We good. Greg Dolce is obviously Jimmy Graham. All right. How about this one? We really have to wait to see the offensive coordinator hirings, but Houston hired San Francisco defensive coordinator D'Amico Ryans,

former linebacker for the team for the Texans. He was a great player for Houston, and now he's their new head coach. More importantly, for fantasy purposes, Brock Purdy has a torn UCL in his elbow, and we don't know which path they're going to go with in terms of his surgery. He may need Tommy John surgery. He may have a less invasive procedure or a less severe procedure that would get him back by training camp. Meanwhile, Trey Lance expects to be healthy by the start of OTAs.

This is going to be a headache for you guys trying to do rankings. Heath, I'll throw it to you first here. You know, As the offseason progresses for the 49ers, we just don't know who their quarterback's going to be. What's your read right now? I think you have to project it as if Trey Lance is going to be the starting quarterback and just don't make them quite as run heavy as they would be if Lance was the starting quarterback all year long because there is a potential for him to get benched or for Purdy to just take the job away from him. So I will project them definitely more run heavy with this news than I would if

Purdy was healthy. Anyone have a hot take? Does anyone else think it's interesting that the Purdy news, Lance coming out saying that he'll be ready for OTAs, Sean Payton going to Denver. D'Amico Ryan's going to Houston. That happened like back to back in the 4 o'clock hour on Tuesday. And then Brady retiring Wednesday morning. Like all those dominoes seem to fall like within a 24-hour span. I wonder if that's truly coincidence or were things – did Brady get the message that San Francisco maybe didn't want him and that

Sean Payton wasn't going to connect with him and so he said okay I guess I'm done I mean you and Aaron Foster could write a good story thank you I think the best part was that D'Amico Ryan's like was the Broncos first choice and Sean Payton was the backup that's what it sounds like well you don't have

to give up draft picks to get D'Amico Ryan's and I bet you don't have to sounds like. Well, you don't have to give up draft picks to get to be called Ryan. There's a big part. And I bet you don't have to pay him as much. And you don't have to pay him as much. So I, I, I think there's looking, you know, to go back to your question, Adam, I think, you know, in terms of the quarterback situation for San Francisco, if Lance is good out of the gate, it's,

he's not losing that job if Purdy's not ready. I mean, you know, he was expected to be their franchise quarterback. You know, that's what they want to be, their franchise quarterback. Obviously, you know, Purdy was so good in the Band-Aid situation, but there's a reason why he was a seventh-round pick. You know, these are the type of guys that get figured out. You know, Trey Lance may be a difference maker. You know, so I'm going to, you know, like Keith said, he's going to go back to my lesson learned. I'm going to go back to Trey Lance may be a difference maker. I'm going to, like Keith said, I'll go back to my lesson learned.

I'm going to go back to Trey Lance because I spent so much capital on him. I spent a high draft pick on him, but he's certainly someone I'm going to look for with a late-round pick if he's the starter, for sure. One of your last two picks? Something like that? Easy, yeah. Russell Wilson or Trey Lance? For me, I will take Trey Lance.

I think there's more upside with Trey Lance. If I miss on quarterbacks and I need a starter for week one, I'll take Russell Wilson. But if I'm taking a backup fantasy quarterback, it's obviously Trey Lance. He's a league winner. But isn't Russell Wilson a potential league winner? 34? No.

I don't think he's going to be. Yeah. What was he ranked on a per game basis his last year in Seattle no one knows all this that is interesting because before his injury the first four or five games of the season he may have been QB1 he was that good right and then he played back four fingers

or three fingers right he came back too soon and he struggled and that's why I always push back on the oh Russell Wilson's done narrative because he wasn't in 2021. He was really, really good before his injury in 2021. He was normal Russell Wilson. What's that?

It's a different team and he's older. It's two years removed. I'm sorry. I mean, look, I'm not saying you're wrong. Personally, I don't think 34 is old for a quarterback. I mean, it is concerning that he doesn't run as much as he used to, but I think you could easily, you know,

you could be a good quarterback at that age if you're... I'm not saying he can't be a good quarterback. I think he could be like a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Top 8, maybe. But I think if Trey Lance can hit... And we're talking about Daniel Jones getting 3,700.

I think Trey Lance could do that too. Yeah, but you're acting like Daniel Jones had a really good fantasy season. He was like QB 14 per game. Even with all those yards, he threw so few touchdowns. He also did that with nobody at receiver. Right. There's a projection that's in place with Daniel Jones that you're hoping he takes a big step forward passing.

I get that. He did rushing. I'm saying you have to do something on top of the rushing. You won't feel good about that, Adam, until you see what the receiving core looks like in New York. And not to speak for Jamie, I'll speak for myself, I'm banking on New York making at least one nice splash at wide receiver.

That would make me feel more encouraged about drafting Daniel Jones. Yeah. I mean, I, you gotta figure they have to upgrade receiver. The problem is it's the worst free agent receiver group ever basically. And yeah, that doesn't matter.

They can go the trip. I know they can go the trade route. I think first round pick would make a lot of sense for them to a receiver. So I just want to make sure like the Tom Brady news is about Russell Wilson. The Sean Payton news is about Daniel Jones. The Sean Payton news is about Daniel Jones. And this news is also about Daniel Jones. When do we talk Eagles?

Just one more thing about Russell Wilson. You know, going to Denver at some point. I'm stunned he wasn't in the package to get Sean Payton. Okay. You may know Ryan Wilson as one of the hosts of the Pick 6 podcast,

or you've heard him on our show talking NFL draft. Well, you got to listen to him and former Vikings GM Rick Spielman, the guy who drafted Adrian Peterson, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson in real life. Check him out with Ryan Wilson

on the new podcast, With the First Pick. They will help you get ready for the NFL draft. It's time to do that. If you're a fantasy fan, you want to listen to this podcast, mock drafts, prospect profiles, stock watch, and more. The show is called With the First Pick. I've listened to it. It's outstanding. They'll probably talk about Daniel Jones at some point so you definitely check out with the first pick wherever you listen to podcasts we have got rankings disputes when we come back Kirk Cousins versus Dak Prescott and a lot more we'll be right back on fantasy football today all right let's talk uh talk about our early rankings here and I know that they change a lot so let we'll just

have some discussions here Kirk Cousins versus Dak Prescott. Who do you like better? As of a few weeks ago, when Jamie published these stories, Dave and Jamie had Cousins one spot ahead of Dak around 9, 10, or 10, 11. Heath did not have Cousins in the top 12,

and he had Dak Prescott, I think, 10th. And they were very, very close in terms of fantasy points per game. If you include Week 18 or not for Kirk Cousins, if you don't include week 18, which you probably shouldn't, he played about half the game.

It didn't change his fantasy points per game all that much. So Cousins and Dak were, were basically even this year. Dak, new offensive coordinator. Cousins was, the Vikings were third in the NFL in past attempts last year. Keep that in mind.

So anyway, Heath, you didn't have Cousins in your top 12. You were the only one. Well, I didn't either, have cousins in your top 12. You were the only one. I didn't either, but among the three of you, you were the only one, so you like Dak better. Go. Yeah, I think they were basically the same guy if you count Dak Prescott's

week one against him. He played 70% of the snaps. He probably should, but that was the first year in the last four that they were basically the same guy. Dak has been a considerably better fantasy option. This was before the news that Kellen Moore was leaving. That makes me more concerned about Dak Prescott.

But I just think that the upside you get with Kirk Cousins is maybe he will sneak into the top 10 quarterbacks. And I still believe that Dak Prescott has top six upside. He's five years younger than Cousins, and he's basically been better each of the last four years. Now, just real quick before we go to Dave and Jamie. Now, when you say maybe he'll sneak into the top 10, you're talking per game here because people might say Kirk Cousins was QB six this year, and he was QB eight and four point QB six in six point leagues. On a per game basis, he's's been right around QB 10 three years in a row, 10 to 12. Six-point passing touchdown league per game,

Cousins has been QB 12, QB 10, and QB 10 three straight years. So, Heath, that's kind of what you think his upside is, where he's been? I just think that's, yeah. Yeah. That's the question, right? Is he who he is, or can he be better? I have, I mean, he's the same age as

russell wilson right i don't know i don't think he's necessarily gonna start dropping off but i have a hard time imagining that he's going to have the career year okay dave and jamie you had cousins one spot ahead of dax so i know this is not not a huge debate but just to discuss it do you think dave do you think her cousins is who he is, or do you see more upside? 20.5 fantasy points per game is where he landed last year, 22.1 in 2021. He actually had the same fantasy points per game with and without TJ Hawkinson.

I remember how he ended this year, and I like the offense that he's in. I like that Kevin O'Connell is the play caller now. I don't think anything's really changing in Minnesota. So he's still going to throw a lot. He's still going to put good numbers up, not great numbers up. And once you get past those first eight quarterbacks, it's going to be a little bit of a grab bag on who you go after, following the likes of Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, and those guys. I like Cousins better now over Dak because Kellen Moore left.

There's a little bit of uncertainty there. Mike McCarthy is a play caller. We'll see if he's learned anything becoming the new play caller in Dallas, even though he just watched Dak before. Don't love Dak's receiving core outside of CeeDee Lamb. I just think it's a little bit safer to go with Kirk Cousins over Dak Prescott. Just to stay on brand, so the Giants are rumored to be looking to trade for T. Higgins, which is something that's in the rounds right now.

That would be unbelievable. That might be a jersey I buy. I might buy a jersey if that happens. Bengals have to get in return. The only thing I'm seeing from Art Stapleton is their first-round pick. So I'm sure there's some package, but that he's suggesting that if the Bengals are not going to extend T. Higgins,

that he's the perfect guy. He's the guy that's coming up for a big deal. And clearly you know you've got to pay Burrow and Chase. Yeah. Alright. Back to... If you put Daniel Jones ahead of Dak and the Kirk Cousins, if he got T. Higgins, you would. Yes. Out of both of themins if he got T. Higgins.

You would. Yes. Out of both of them. Yeah. Okay. So, Jamie, what do you think? I think the argument for Cousins' upside would be he threw the ball. It starts and ends right there.

Well, come on. TD Lamb isn't anything to sneeze at either. I mean, I probably will. This will be one I'll flip-flop 100 times. I do think, you know, we've got to see what the backfield looks like for Dallas. That's a big part of this. You know, so both Pollard and Zeke may not be there, and if Pollard does return, he may not be at 100% at the start of the season.

So that's a part of it. Adam Thielen might be gone, you know, so that could change some things in Minnesota. So there's still a lot of moving parts with both of these quarterbacks. But I do think that if you just look at it, Dak has the higher ceiling. Cousins is the safer play at this point. I'm going to make the case for upside for Cousins. I think it's possible. More upside than Dak is what you need to do.

Okay. Yeah, it's a pass attemptsattempts argument, right? They had such a bad defense, but even with that bad defense, there were other teams that had a worse defense, and they didn't throw as much as Minnesota. Obviously, Kevin McConnell is just so much different than Mike Zimmer. The philosophy is different. So whereas Dak was the one who was throwing so much, now it's Cousins, and his touchdown rate was just super low last year,

and that was perhaps, perhaps because Adam Thielen is just done. So I think you need a better number two receiver. Doesn't have to be somebody great, but a better number two receiver. The touchdown rate goes up. He's among the leaders in pass attempts. It was Brady, Herbert, Cousins, I believe,

this year. And if he is that again and the touchdown rate gets back up then he has more upside than than dak prescott um i don't know that i'd say he has more upside than dak prescott but i would say that the fact that he threw the ball 643 times in 16 and a half games it's not surprising the touchdown rate was down he threw a lot of three yard passes to tj hawkinson on the other side of the field that had no chance to score a touchdown well one of those was the best throw of the year we can all agree all right let's go to our next rankings dispute

we'll go to a running back it's not it's not him versus anyone it's why did none of us have josh jacobs in the top six he was actually the number one running back in fantasy in non-PPR. He was number two or three. He was number three in full PPR, and he was top three per game in both formats. Does it seem, first of all, Jamie, like the franchise tag is the most likely scenario?

And why, speaking for yourself, did you not have Josh Jacobs in the top six? Well, again, stay on brand. We have Seward Saquon Barkley going. So, you know, you have the free agents in this class. This is our best show, by the way, I would have to say. Like, loving this show. I'm just curious to see who he's going to play.

You know, if he stays with the Raiders and they fix their quarterback situation, because right now it's ugly, then I think he's absolutely in the same conversation. I think if he leaves, you've got to be concerned. You know, running backs that change teams as free agents don't typically fare so well. So I'm hopeful that he's getting a good situation, that he's not going to have significant competition. I do think that that could change a little bit this year

if the coaching staff feels a little bit more comfortable with Zemir White. But in any event, wherever he ends up will change how I feel about him, better or worse. He could jump up a spot or two if he stays with the Raiders. He could certainly fall dramatically if he goes someplace else where he's in more of a time shift. Dave? How many times have we seen a running back get paid and then fall off?

Happens a bunch. And who is this guy? Who is he? Lillian, who is this man? Last year, he averaged 14.1 PPR points per game. In 2020, he was 14.3 PPR points per game. In 2022, it was 19.3. Five points per game better in PPR last year. New coach,

but also a contract here. And I wonder if there's something in play there where he's fighting through injuries, playing strong, getting a lot of work and coming through despite issues like a bad passing game, a bad offensive line, maybe some bad coaching. And he's doing it for the almighty dollar. And I don't blame him for doing it. I would probably do the same thing if I were a ridiculously talented professional athlete. That's a big leap to say that it's just contract related, right?

I mean, it's, it might, it really might not be. I think that might have helped motivate him to play as good as he possibly could last year compared to some of his previous years. There's a five-point jump that needs to be accounted for, and it's hard to account for that five-point jump staying there, knowing what he was when he was younger and fresher and still getting a lot of work in the Raiders' office.

I mean, there are three running backs that came into the season with contract concerns, and they all had pretty significant years. Jacobs was one, Barkley was one, and Miles Sanders was one. And, again, you can dissect that however you want to. Barkley being healthy, Sanders being a little bit more of the front point. Right offense, right. Jacobs, you know, fighting through injuries, all those things. You know, so, look, we've all been around sports for a long time, covered athletes.

It matters to them. Contract years matter to them. So he went out and had a huge season. Kudos to him. He should get paid. He will. I think it's just a matter of, well, he's at the wrong position to get paid. He'll get paid.

He'll get something. He'll get paid for his spot that he plays in the league. But hopefully it's just not the situation where I don't want to look at other guys that got contracts. McCaffrey was clearly injured. Those type of things, guys getting paid. But that's the nature of that position. These guys get paid and then they just fall off to whatever degree afterward.

Yeah, I don't want to speculate on the contract stuff, but I think part of that big five-point difference can be accounted by the fact that he saw 15% more touches than he ever has, and he didn't have any control over that. They gave him the ball 23 times a game. And until we know if he's going to be on a team that's going to give him the ball 23 times a game, it's hard to rank him as high as what he did

or close to as high as what he did last year. Even if he stays in Las Vegas, Heath, do you project him for getting the ball 23 times a game? He'll be over 20, but go. There's also, you know, Daniel Jones is a free agent. So he goes to the Raiders. Well, you know, let's... Okay, we already talked about Daniel Jones so much,

so let's talk about yards per carry because his yards per carry in four seasons is 4.8, 3.9, 4.0, and 4.9. So it's hard to – yeah, I mean it's hard to know what to make of that. If you look at his PFF – A new coach. What's that? It's a new coach. that affected his yards per carry. Yes.

I would think the system would. Yeah. Well, maybe, but the P okay. Again, we'll go back to yards per carry. Do you think the running backs response?

I don't know, but the PFF offensive line grades, the last four seasons, the two years where he's been really good 18th and 17th, the two years where he's been really bad 26th and 29th. So, you know, there's that too. It doesn't, doesn't seem like I will project him for 4.5 yards per carry probably. Yeah. Split the difference. But you know, just, I think after two straight years of 3.9 and four yards per carry, whether people want to admit it or not, cause they don't like to admit that they look at yards per carry.

People had basically just made their up their minds that Josh Jacobs wasn't really anything special. That's my opinion. Again, it's not just the coach coming in. They brought in one of the best receivers in football, so you can't cheat and play a line of scrimmage. The year before,

he loses a waller for a stretch of games and didn't have anything to replace that, you know, in 2021. You know, 2022, Waller missing. Pass the game to take pressure off. Right. You know, so there's different ways you're playing them.

You can't play eight guys in the box when you have Devontae Adams and Darren Waller and Hunter Renfroe. Even if you take Waller out of it, you know, with the games that he missed. You know, you can't cheat. You know, it's easy to cheat when you're saying Derek Carr's going to beat you when Josh Jacobs is probably their best offensive player. You know, now that's not the case. And so, you know, even though he was having success in making, you know,

winning the Russian title, you're still, the biggest fear is Devonta Adams and making plays down the field. You know, so when you're putting, you know, two players on one, you know, corner and a safety over top, it's going to open up running lanes. So that's a big part of it. All right, so what's the highest you could see yourself ranking Josh Jacobs? Let's say he's back on the Raiders. Five, six.

Yeah. That's right about where he is now. We'd like to just point out one last thing here. His role in the passing game, whether it's coincidence or not, caught a lot more passes when Renfro wasn't playing. He averaged 2.4 catches per game in the 10 games that Renfro played. He averaged 4.1 catches per game in the 7 games that Renfro missed.

Also, he is just like what I said about Joe Mixon the other day, not a third down back. Caught a lot of passes on first and second down, did not have a third down roll. So something to keep in mind. That offense, though, does throw their running backs a lot on non-third down plays. And he only had two targets the first two games of the season

when I'm not sure Josh McDaniels was sold on him yet. And you also go back to 2021. His passing number spiked when Drake went down and when Waller went down. Alright, next debate. Najee Harris versus Nick Chubb. Raise your hand if you like Najee Harris over Nick Chubb.

Dave? Oh, Jamie! You could have left the over Nick Chubb part out. Jamie, I think, was putting his hand up there. Yeah, no. Oh, that's a change. Okay, so you're going to move Najee ahead of Chubb part out. Jamie, I think, was putting his hand up there. Yeah, no. Oh, that's a change. Okay, so you're going to move Najee ahead of Chubb. This is full PPR, obviously. Yeah, nine and a half, I'll still take

Chubb, but full PPR, I'll go back to Najee. Heath, you're on Chubb. Yes. Okay. All right, Heath, go. Oh, Canada. Yeah, I just don't think the Steelers' offense is going to be considerably better than it was last year. I don't think their scheme was very good last year. Their offensive line has major improvements to make.

If you're a yards per carry guy, Najee Harris now has 579 career carries. He doesn't have a season with better than four yards per carry. I don't see a huge touchdown spike for him. And his role in the passing game really overall cratered last year. He did have a couple of real big, big spike games, but I don't have confidence that he goes into the year as a 380 touch guy.

Like he was as a rookie. Damien. I'm still banking on talent. I'm still, I almost feel like I'm saying a lot of the same things I said this time last year about Najee. I'm banking on the offensive line being better in Pittsburgh. I'm banking on the passing game being more efficient,

if not more explosive next year than this year. And I think that Najee is more of the running back that we saw in the last five games. Averaged almost 16 PPR points per game in his final five. In his rookie year, he was at 16.8. So I think he can land right in that range between the high 15 and high 16 PPR point per game average. That's the tier behind the running backs that you'll find in round one.

So I'm willing to bank on that talent. I still think he's going to get a lot of good opportunities, and I think the offense will get a little bit better, even with Matt Canada calling plays. So there's a couple things to play. I think both guys certainly have plenty of upside still, but Chubb is getting to that point of his career age-wise,

where you've got to be starting to worry about it age 27 plus. Adam, I sent you a story from PFF about where he Najee Harris had seven times he was tackled at the one yard line um you know one of the unluckiest players uh at his position across the nfl you know seven times that he i don't know how many times that then turned into a score right but he failed to score a touchdown on on

seven times getting tackled at the one um and i i did the while he was talking about the offensive line i went look to just two of our, four of our mock drafts, two of our mock drafters have the Steelers taking an offensive tackle. So I think that's something where, you know, you look at it, if they don't address defense, which, you know, clearly is still a very big strength on the offensive side, everything else for them is in place except for maybe adding to that spot

in the offensive line. So it would make a ton of sense for them to spend, I think, their pick 18, if I'm not mistaken, to spend that pick on a 17, excuse me, to spend that pick on an offensive lineman. So it's not going to be one of the elite guys, but still, depending on how the draft falls, can get one of the better offensive linemen in the draft. So a lot of things still at play.

And then the biggest thing for me with the Browns was at the end of last season, which you can make a strong argument for it, that they were just trying to get Deshaun Watson going. And that's why their offense sort of skewed a little bit away from the run. The fantasy still wants to run the ball. And so that's a big plus for Nick Chubb. I know he didn't score touchdowns. We know Deshaun Watson's history is not necessarily throwing to his running back. So, you know, I think when you start to look at who's going to catch more passes,

I still would give the edge to Najee, but obviously he's dead on what he said, that his role in the passing game significantly cratered without Roethlisberger there. So we'll see. I think they're very good comps. It's a great discussion of who's better than who. Nick Chubb could still be the leader in rushing yards. He still has that potential, you know, still. Still behind a great offensive line. And obviously the offense as a whole should be better once

Deshaun Watson getting a full offseason again with this team and knowing what they're going to have. But I still think for me I'm always going to lean toward the younger guy if there's a debate. And I think Najee still has the chance to be what we saw two years ago. Maybe not how he does it, but

still being one of the better fantasy running backs. And I don't, I'm not super high on Chubb, I don't think. I won't be by the time we get to projections. I'm worried about the age as well. I just think that Nick Chubb could have a decline in talent and still be more talented than Najee Harris. And as far as the hot finish for Harris, it's basically that he scored four touchdowns

in his last five games. He had one game in his last five with more than two catches, and he had one game in his last five where he averaged even 3.6 shots per carry. He just scored four touchdowns. You know what I think really helped Najee Harris is actually TJ Watt. You look at the first eight games before their bye. Actually, there are a lot of things here at play with Najee Harris. He had the foot injury at the beginning, in the preseason,

just before the season started. And it really may have affected him. The first eight games of the season before their buy, their buy was basically right smack in the middle of the year. He was not even a top 20 running back, and he averaged 3.3 yards per carry. That's terrible. Watt missed almost all of those games,

got hurt in week one and did not come back until the bye. And that matters because in those first eight games, Najee was on pace for 230 carries. In the last nine games, he was on pace for 310 carries. He only averaged 4.1 yards per carry. It's not like he was tearing it up,

but the defense was so much better. He was more involved in the running game. They were just able to run the ball more. And, you know, I think that may have contributed to the touchdowns as well. The last nine games of the season, all after the bi-week, hopefully he got a little bit healthier. I think he did make a mention of getting a little bit healthier with that foot. He was a top 10 running back per game. He was number six overall, you know, not per game, but overall in those nine games. But yeah, I mean, Heath, I think you're right. A lot of it was touchdowns. A lot of it was volume.

The volume went way up. If I'm making a case for Chubb, and just tell me what you guys think of this. If I'm making a case for Chubb over Harris, the case would be this. It's so simple. Nick Chubb is one of the best running backs in football. Najee Harris has not shown us anything

other than being drafted in the first round. Any reason to believe that he is anything special. He has had 579 career carries. He does not have a 40 yard carry yet in his career. It is simply Nick Chubb is so much better than Najee Harris. And there was rumblings about Jalen Warren stealing carries from him. So there is a ton of downside with Najee. If he's once again averaging,

you know, four yards per carrier or worse, that's the argument for Chubb. Well done. Has Tomlin ever really had a guy, though, that was significant yards per carry type of rusher? Oh, yeah. Le'Veon Bell wasn't really that guy, was he?

Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Le'Veon Bell was phenomenal in that. And so was, I think, James Conner was pretty damn good in that, too. I'll double- check on that. But yeah, Le'Veon Bell was. Le'Veon Bell had three straight seasons at 4.7 or better. Right. And he caught a bazillion passes.

No, absolutely. I mean, no. That's not something that anybody's doing. That for sure. It always felt like he doesn't mind having a grinding type of running back. No, Najee's much worse than those guys. I mean, for Conner, it was, we'll forget about his rookie year, he had 32 carries.

4.5, then 4.0, then 4.3. And to be fair, those guys had better offensive lines than what Najee had. Not Connor. Especially not in that last year. They were the second worst. The first year when he took over, when Le'Veon was going through his sit-out season. Yes, yes.

But, yeah, that's the argument is that, like, you know, I don't know if I believe this, but there's a lot of evidence that Najee Harris just isn't very good. And I think Josh Jacobs is a lesson in not jumping to conclusions because, like I said, people probably felt that way about Jacobs a year ago. But I would like for Najee, remember he gained weight? I'd like for him to lose some weight and get a little bit more explosive

because he's just not fast enough right now to break off those game-changing plays. He just doesn't do it. We've got to see what the Browns do to replace Kareem Hunt. Wilson's Kareem Hunt at the end of on the Giants, so let's replace him. Last ranking dispute. Garrett Wilson versus T. Higgins. Dave and Heath as of a few weeks ago. Higgins the Giants?

Yeah. Well, this one's pretty easy. Garrett Wilson's going to go from Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White to literally anyone else. And T. Higgins is going to go from Joe Burrow to Daniel Jones. It's an enormous downgrade. Are you aware of what Garrett Wilson did without Zach Wilson? 19.5 fantasy points per game or something? I've got him at 17.3.

Yeah, it's great. Small sample. He was at 21 points per game. Yeah, it went down. It went down a little bit. Yeah, right. He didn't finish. That's the whole thing for me is upgrade a quarterback,

and I don't think they're going to change their philosophy as far as how they feel about Garrett Wilson being that number one receiver. They see what other teams are doing with their stud receivers, and they clearly view Garrett Wilson through that same lens. So I think he's got a chance to be top five in the league in targets. If he's top five in targets, that dude's going to catch a ton of passes, and he's got explosiveness to his game. He can break away. He can work in the red zone. I think he's a phenomenal talent.

The reason why I was bearish on him after the NFL draft was because he went to the Jets, and I was worried that the Jets with Zach Wilson could take him a little while to find a better quarterback to play with. That got sped up as soon as Zach Wilson played like doo-doo last year. And now I'm expecting them to get anywhere from Jimmy Garoppolo to Aaron Rogers to replace Zach Wilson at quarterback in New York. And I think that that's going to be excellent for Garrett Wilson. I love him.

He's a top 10 receiver for me going into next year. Okay. So Jamie, I think you were the only one who had Higgins. You sticking with that or what? With the giants? No. With the Bengals. I mean, look, we're all hoping that they're going to get an upgrade.

But one piece of the puzzle just left. You know, I mean, Brady was supposed to go to the Raiders. And now what happens with all these other moving parts? You know, if Aaron Rodgers doesn't go to the Jets, if Lamar Jackson doesn't go to the Raiders. And now what happens with all these other moving parts? You know, if Aaron Rodgers doesn't go to the Jets, if Lamar Jackson doesn't go to the Jets, if they have to settle for another Zach Wilson, Mike White year to get to where they want to get to in 2024, is that going to be what we want for Garrett Wilson?

Side note, these are going to be the two most Acer-statted wide receivers of the 2023 season because T. Higgins had a game where he played one snap and a game where he played 10 snaps. And Garrett Wilson has all the who-was-his-quarterback stats. But what about week one? How many snaps did Higgins play in week one? Because I'm throwing that one out.

Only 26. Yeah, I'm throwing that one out, too. That's three games out. My gosh. I mean, my basic rule of thumb is if you're a receiver that plays almost every snap like Higgins, if you play less than 50% of the snaps, I usually see you later. Yeah, but I've got something different. I think if we started him in fantasy that week, then it should count.

Yeah, definitely not. Everybody started T. Higgins and definitely not. That's the worst. Dave, that doesn't make any sense. I'm sorry. It doesn't make an ounce of sense. Didn't you come up with started fantasy points as a stat? Yeah, but I would Acer stat those too.

There's levels here. I'm just saying if I'm going to evaluate how a guy did, I'm not going to penalize him because we started him. If he played one snap, he doesn't deserve to be penalized for that. That was not a game that we should count against T. Higgins. I wish it didn't count for my teams either. I probably would have

won those. That's not the point. By that measure, we wouldn't count some of Garrett Wilson's best games. With what? I said by that measure, we wouldn't count some of Garrett Wilson's best games because we probably weren't starting them. Oh, right. Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. All right. That's it for today's show. We've got lessons learned from Dave and Heath on tomorrow's show.

I'll leave you with this. Heath, I want you to give the opinion on this one first. Big life news for me. Yesterday, I did something I've never done before. I joined a gym. So I'm going to try to get in shape. Now, I paid one dollar for membership i get charged in two weeks so i have two weeks to basically how many times do i go in the next two weeks it's about 15 minutes away by the way so how

many times do i go to the gym in the next two weeks? Am I guessing or am I advising? You could do both. My guess in the next 14 days is that you go four times. I think you'll go four times. I really don't want to go. Did you exercise yesterday? No, I didn't have time. You haven't been yet. I went. I toured it, but no, I have not been.

I toured. I'm going to lower not been. No. I toured. I'm going to lower my number. No, I really didn't have time. I knew I wasn't going to have time. I just was trying to find a gym to join. You quit a gym, by the way, right? What did you say? It's impossible to quit a gym.

Why? No, I managed to do it. Oh, I can quit a gym. Don't doubt me. All right. Well, wish me luck. Don't doubt me. All right. Well, wish me luck. I plan on never touching one weight. Is that why we had to go early today so you could go to the gym?

I wish. I wish. No time today either. So that's what I'm saying. And I'm not going out weekends because it's going to be way too crowded. So I don't know if this is going to work. Luckily, it was only a dollar. The reason I joined was to play some basketball.

So I'm going to be working on my Silky J. Oh, I would love to watch that. Yeah. I wouldn't get any pickup games. Don F. says, can't wait for Adam to complain about being sore. Yes, you can count on that. Our next show. He's going to have to go.

Adam, you know how most of our mailbag show thinks that Dan did the show on his toilet? Yes. I don't think people think you have legs. Probably not. Alright guys, thank you so much for your time today. I'm going to use my legs to get up and go

have a sandwich. We will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.